After people making fun of Goins/Barney both being in the lineup go figure who gets on and then is followed by a HR hit by which player?

Guess it was the right day to give Urena a day off.

Fittingly, Goins single Barney HR finally puts the Jays on the board.

Is a mea culpa appropriate? After a 3 RBI game, no puns about his evolution nor his emergence from the rubble.

Jon Morosi reports that the Jays and Marco Estrada are close to a contract extension. Estrada has repeatedly stated how much he loves Toronto.

Contract length would be the big issue. The Jays would like a one year plus an option deal. Estrada would like a two year deal. He is 34, a two year deal takes him until he is 36.

Of course Goins and Barney also blew a ridiculous play that was called a double for some reason. (Maybe the official scorer couldn't decide which of them deserved the error more.)

From Davidi: "As @jonmorosi reported first, #BlueJays and Marco Estrada closing in on a one-year extension. Could be announced as soon as tomorrow"

Sounds like it might be a great deal for the Jays since a one year deal effectively eliminates any risk on the team's end. Surprised that Estrada would settle for one year (if that's what ends up happening) without testing the market first. He must really like Toronto.

The offseason gets a little easier with Estrada back in the fold as one of the 4th/5h starters. I am assuming the dollar value won't hinder us too much.

The player I think the Jays should very seriously pursue this offseason is Mike Minor. He has a mutual option for next season, but those are almost never executed by both sides. Id even offer him the chance to start again with the fall back being an elite reliever and our best lefty option by far.

I think he should command between the 3 year 22 million Ryan Madsen received and Andrew Miller's 36 million over 4 years. I'd be willing to offer up to 25 million over 3 years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-minor-returned-in-2017-and-teams-should-be-interested/

Griffin had a good piece last week that talked about Estrada's fondness of Toronto and his struggles this summer (https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2017/09/12/marco-estrada-makes-it-clear-he-wants-to-stay-with-blue-jays-griffin.html):

"Estrada believes that uncertainty regarding his future, especially when he wanted to remain with the club, has taken its toll. And when finally the Jays confirmed that he was not going to be dealt, he feels that allowed him to rediscover his groove.

“Pitching is one thing,” Estrada said of his inability to battle through the off-the-field stuff. “I’m comfortable out (on the mound) no matter what the situation is, but having someone bring up to you that you’re leaving, it was almost every day I was hearing it from someone new. At first I didn’t care, and as a couple of weeks went by it started getting into my head and the next thing I know I’m struggling.

“But I had other issues going on that aren’t baseball related. That’s why it all snowballed. It was a tough time. Then you start pitching bad, that makes everything even worse. Once I got over all of that stuff, I’ve done much better and I feel like I’m back to who I was, who I’ve been for this team. In all honesty I feel like it was a month-and-a-half of pitching like someone else.”"

We'll see tomorrow what the terms are, but it's interesting that Estrada would forego a chance at free agency and a guaranteed two year deal. That may not come as cheap as people would hope. Estrada made 14m this year and I'd be surprised if he's taking a paycut on a one year deal without the qualifying offer dragging him down, so my guess would be around 16m with a buyout on the team's option for 2019.

The Estrada deal is one year, $13 million according to Morosi. I haven't read anything about an option being included, so it might be a straight up one year deal. That's a very good deal for the Jays.

value is fine but I sure hope he's better at 35 than he was at 34.

I hope so, too, but even his current ~2.5 WAR year works on a 1y/$13M deal. It just didn't feel good in the middle.

Yeah, even with a down year, Estrada ranks as the 18th best starter in the AL this season per fWAR. 13th the past 2 seasons, 18th the past 3.

A big part of that is a healthy arm. Only 6 AL starters have thrown more innings than Estrada the past 3 seasons - Sale, Kluber, Archer, Porcello, Verlander, Keuchel.

Sixteen months ago, some fans declared that Russell Martin was "done." 

Two months ago, some fans declared that Marco Estrada was "done."

It turns out that neither of them is done.  Lesson for some fans:  veterans don't necessarily fall into a terminal decline.  They are very capable of up-and-down seasons, due to injury or other factors, and each one has to be assessed individually. 

I admit, however, that Jose Bautista is done.

Martin is literally one of our best signings of all time and people hate it. It's so weird.

In only 85 games this year, Martin has a 1.9 fWAR.   That ranks him 4th among all catchers in the league.

It just looks worse now because we're into the backloaded portion of the contract, but I'm still pleased with the Martin signing. He's had 7-7.5 WAR in his first 3 years in both bWAR and fWAR, which don't account for framing. Also, there weren't a whole lot of better options out there. Add in the added marketability, and this deal's easily on pace to be a win, even with the injury-hampered last two years. Not all free agent deals are bad.

Does anyone hate the Martin signing? I can't recall anyone saying that.

Yes, the general feeling is that Martin is a terrible anchor contract.

Even though he's the best catcher in jays' history, and one of the best in baseball at the moment.

"...Does anyone hate the Martin signing? I can't recall anyone saying that...."

At the time when he was acquired, most people liked the signing.  But then, when he had a poor start in the 2016 season (mostly due to injury), the pessimists emerged, and at least one or two people here suggested that Martin was finished. 

Even now there are a few people here who lump together Martin and Tulowitzki, considering both of their contracts to be albatrosses that prevent the Jays from doing other moves.

Personally I think there are big differences between Martin and Tulo, and big differences between their contract situations too.  it's not logical to lump them together.  And even in the case of Tulo, the negative feeling about him will shift quite a bit if he bounces back next year with a good season, which is quite possible.

I don't think that you read that correctly Ugly. There has been criticism of the Tulo contract possibly becoming an albatross but not the contract for Martin. In general, large contracts can adversely affect future flexibility but the Martin one seemed necessary and still offers value even if a bit rich at the back end..

"....There has been criticism of the Tulo contract possibly becoming an albatross but not the contract for Martin...."

Some people do make a distinction between the two of them, but there are definitely people who lump together the two contracts as if they are equally bad.

I think you might be conflating 2 thoughts here, ugly. You can simultaneously think that the Martin contract overall was a good contract while also believing he won't be worth $40M over the next two years. I don't get a significant feeling the contract overall is viewed as a bust, but the value going forward is more dubious. I personally think it'll be close enough, but I can see why people wouldn't hold that view, especially if they are more skeptical at the team's chance of contention next year.

Estrada must really like Toronto to skip out on free agency and renew for only 1 year at his current AAV. Last offseason Colon got 1/12.5 and Volquez 2/22, so you probably have to consider this signing somewhat team-friendly. I'll like it a lot if there's an option attached.

I must be the only one in Canada who wants to see Bautista back in a supportive role as a backup 3B/OF. I understand that it's probably not practical because of his clubhouse presence in Toronto, I just wish it were possible.

People who dislike the Martin signing probably never watch the games, and just pull up his stats and see a .230 hitter. His effect on the pitching staff is tremendous, even if he doesn't throw out runners like he could in 2015. Spending $ on the top FA at the position to fill a gigantic organizational hole is exactly what you want them to do, even if he's overpaid by the end of the contract.

"Martin is literally one of our best signings of all time and people hate it. It's so weird."

From what I can search here, I can't find ANY people who hate the Martin signing. Feel free to provide evidence contrary to that.

What I think is weird is that you're demonizing the front office for not giving out four or five (or six!) years to players in their 30's who have contributed solid value to other teams this year. I don't think anyone would argue that any free-agent signing to a giant contract wouldn't contribute in the first year or two of those deals. Of course they would. No front office in baseball is handing out 4-6 year contracts to players who won't provide value in the first couple years.

I'm not going to even address Encarnacion because he signed somewhere else for LESS money. I'm still at a loss when it comes to figuring out your line of reasoning that the players you think the Jays should've signed actually would've signed with the Jays. You can't put a dollar value on what it would've taken to bring those guys to Toronto, can you? No. You can't. They signed somewhere else, and saying so-and-so signed for whatever contract with another team is actually a little more complicated than adding that contract to the Jays' payroll.

You don't seem to get that.

You also said (many, many times) that signing those kinds of contracts wouldn't hamstring the team if they're rebuilding for 2020. What if they need money to extend Stroman or Sanchez? Osuna? Those guys (if they're worth keeping, which you have a ton of cherry-picked numbers to say they are) are going to cost a lot more in 2020 if they're as good as you think.

As Jays (cash based on average annual salary over life of jays' portion of contract, not actual salary):

Martin (32-34): 7.2awar, $49.2m, $6.8m/war
Tulo (30-32): 4.6awar, $46.0m, $10.0m/war (-$54.5m for Reyes)

Both Martin and Tulo project at league average offensive players next year, with above average defense at the two toughest defensive positions.

Tulo can still catch and throw the ball effectively but I doubt his range is above average any more.

Reyes's defence fell off markedly after his serious ankle injury. Given the seriousness of Tulo's recent injury, his age, and the long list of other injuries he has sustained, there would seem to be a good chance that his defence may be mediocre or worse going forward. The one thing he may have going for him, though, is that shortstop range may not be as important as it once was (because shifting is now so prevalent).

It's tough to say what his range is going forward, but I'll cut him some slack until next year to see if he can get his legs healthy again.

Of course, range was never a big thing for him according the UZR - it was always his ability to be decent enough in every aspect while being really good at not making errors. This year, that wasn't the case in his limited playing time, but the caveat there is that errors seem to cluster and his injuries didn't afford the opportunity for his error rate to normalize. On a side note, his lateral range really seems enhanced by his ability to make quick and accurate off-balance throws - he seems to be significantly better at his 'max' range than most.

Some Bauxites must be thinking about other topics beside FA expenditures and how much closer we could have been to the 2nd WC. I hope so. I am.

With math and guess work. I believe Boston and NYY will be in the playoffs. Both with 90+ wins. Minnesota most likely will not lose more games than they win. Everyone else could have a sub .500 record. Maybe 82 wins gets the 2nd WC.

I really believe that an Ace SP is very necessary to win the WS. I have posted about this in the past. We have that.

Trout, B Harper, JD are very nice to have. But you can pitch around 1 guy. Manny/Ortiz was 2 guys.

I certainly understand that a few Jays fans are upset that we will not make the playoffs this year. Most Jays fans will be ok about that and not be in agony, because we had our happy time in 2015 and 2016. It is the teams that have not had playoff baseball for 5+ years like Seattle.

Last year 6 AL teams had less than 82 wins. KC 81 (lost their last 4 games). Minnesota 59 wins for last place.

Tulo has one of the worst contracts in baseball.. His WAR might be so-so but teams don't value WAR the same way people here do and they definitely do not pay big money for average offensive-pretty good defensive players. His WRC+ in the last three seasons is 97 and his underlying numbers this year point to a further decline. Nobody would pay close to what he makes for him right now. He's being paid like a superstar and playing like an average player and he has three more years to go.


Martin's overall contract will end up being very good but this part of it isn't great. If you look at his last two years, he's not a top-10 catcher in WRC+ or WAR. He's still a valuable enough player and since the contract was very good, I don't know how you can be upset by it. What is annoying is how much money the Jays are paying to average players. Tulo, Morales, and Martin will cost the Jays around $50M next year.

Martin is in the top-10 in wRC+, actually, even including the platoon catchers. A tick behind the top-10 in WAR.

And you can claim that WAR doesn't matter, or that "teams wouldn't pay", but the price for an above average offensive and defensive SS - which is what Tulo has always, and still does project to, is extremely high.

If you're looking for worsts contracts in baseball, and your eyes fall on tulo's before morales', you're doing it wrong.

As Jays (cash based on average annual salary over life of jays' portion of contract, not actual salary): Martin (32-34): 7.2awar, $49.2m, $6.8m/war Tulo (30-32): 4.6awar, $46.0m, $10.0m/war (-$54.5m for Reyes) Both Martin and Tulo project at league average offensive players next year, with above average defense at the two toughest defensive positions.

Do those same projections for Encarnacion at 4/80.

Do those same projections for Fowler and Reddick at whatever you think it would've cost the Jays.

In isolation an absolute thumbs up on the Estrada deal. His underlying metrics give me great hope that with some outfield defence he will return to being an above average (or better) starter next year.

We need to see the rest of the offseason before really evaluating this move though. There were several moves that made sense in isolation last offseason that didn't make much sense when viewed with all of the other moves.

It seems pretty easy to put a dollar value on what it would've taken to bring Encarnacion back, Parker. I suppose you can claim he wouldn't have ultimately accepted Toronto's "offer" and would've taken less to go to Cleveland. Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna will all still be in arbitration in 2020, so it would be weird if the Jays were hamstrung by other contracts to bring them back at a below-market value. And one final year of Fowler's contract, if that's what you were getting at, wouldn't have done that either.

Speaking of Stroman, I'd love to see them ink him to a 5 or 6 year deal this offseason.

Tulo's defense thru his career

uzr/150 and drs/150

Age 21: 220.1in, -28.9uzr, -18.4drs (-23.7avg)
Age 22: 1375.0in, +13.2uzr, +30.4drs (+21.8avg)
Age 23: 863.1in, -0.1uzr, +3.1drs (+1.5avg)
Age 24: 1294.0in, +3.3uzr, +13.6drs (+8.5avg)
Age 25: 1065.0in, +7.6uzr, +20.2drs (+14.1avg)
Age 26: 1208.1in, +8.4uzr, +13.4drs (+10.9avg)
Age 27: 404.0in, -2.1uzr, -20.0drs (-11.1avg)
Age 28: 1029.1in, +7.6uzr, +7.9drs (+7.8avg)
Age 29: 739.2in, +4.5uzr, +12.8drs (+8.7avg)
Age 30: 1025.1in, +4.9uzr, +6.6drs (+5.8avg)
Age 31: 1128.2in, +5.4uzr, +12.0drs (+8.7avg)
Age 32: 562.0in, -2.1uzr, +2.4drs (+0.2avg)
Career: 10915.0in, +5.1uzr, +11.6drs (+8.4avg)
3 Year: 2716.0in, +3.6uzr, +8.0drs (+5.8avg)


He's been a very good defender year in and year out, even recently, aside from a couple of injury-crushed years, including this year....though this year was far from his worst. And that's of course granting that we should even take half-year defensive stats seriously.

EE looks to be at about $8m/war this year, Fowler about $7.5.

Morales is at approximately $infinity/war.

"And you can claim that WAR doesn't matter"

You use WAR when it supports your analyses and ignore it when it doesn't, and then you have the gall to throw that in the face of people who consistently ignore it.

"teams wouldn't pay", but the price for an above average offensive and defensive SS - which is what Tulo has always, and still does project to, is extremely high.

That's a bunch of stuff you love to say when you want to wish that your injury-prone players weren't even going to decline at a league-average level. Where are all your studies that show middle infielders who couldn't stay healthy in their 20's are suddenly going to stay healthy in their 30's?

"EE looks to be at about $8m/war this year, Fowler about $7.5.

I'm literally at a loss here. You're trying to prove that a player in the first year of his free-agent contract is a good signing??

Baseball professionals have spent a hundred years analysing the overall value of free agent signings, but you see fit to project those contracts over one year. What part of "the first year of a free agent's contract is going to provide more value than the total value of his contract" are you having trouble with?

"His WAR might be so-so but teams don't value WAR the same way people here do and they definitely do not pay big money for average offensive-pretty good defensive players"

Certainly not to players like Jason Heyward! And yes, one of my fantasy teams is named Carry On Heyward Son, though I didn't draft him this year.

"EE looks to be at about $8m/war this year, Fowler about $7.5."

Again... neither of those players signed with the Blue Jays. I'm still trying to figure out how you can spend so much of your free time coughing up your numbers without having learned that maybe you can't just say any free agent would've signed with the Jays for the same money. Encarnacion should fire his agent, because if Encarnacion wanted to stay in Toronto, he threw away $20M to NOT stay. You don't know how much it would've cost for the Jays to sign Fowler, so why do you keep pretending that you do?

That's actually if you DON'T want to acknowledge total commitment, and I don't know how you don't...

I cannot understand WAR. I accept that. My fault.

Can total team WAR be calculated? If so we can calculate the 6 highest WARs and compare them to the 6 top ranking teams in the AL at seasons end. Add in a column for Pythag ranking and then check for general consistency.

"You use WAR when it supports your analyses and ignore it when it doesn't,"

examples plz/thx

"You're trying to prove that a player in the first year of his free-agent contract is a good signing??"

yes, I'm showing that these signings would have helped us likely be a playoff team this year. And I'm willing to accept the downside in a few years time to get playoffs now. Especially since all these contracts will be done by the time our next core is ready to compete.

Neither Morales nor Tulowitzki are anywhere close to the worst contracts out there. I mean, there isn't enough money left on the Morales deal to make it a true burden, and Tulo still provides value, even if not at a rate commensurate to his remaining commitment. I mean, this can't even be a serious discussion in a world with Pujols, Chen and Kennedy, just off the top of my head. Davis is still owed $100M, Sandoval gets another 40+ to play for another team. I could go on.

They might be the worst contracts on the Jays, but they really don't compare to some of the other blunders or wilted roses out there.

"Can total team WAR be calculated? If so we can calculate the 6 highest WARs and compare them to the 6 top ranking teams in the AL at seasons end. Add in a column for Pythag ranking and then check for general consistency."

Last year's Top-10 WAR teams (using an average of fwar/ra9war for pitching):

1.CHC 64.6 (.640, 1st)
2.BOS 54.6 (.574, 5th)
3.WSH 47.8 (.586, 2nd)
4.CLE 46.8 (.584, 4th)
5.SFG 46.4 (.537, T-9th)
6.LAD 45.8 (.562, 6th)
7.TOR 45.0 (.549, T-7th)
8.NYM 44.0 (.537, T-9th)
9.HOU 38.6 (.518, T-14th)
10.STL 38.2 (.531, T-12th)


The big whiff by war last year was TEX-HOU - texas finished with Houston's deserved record, and houston finised with texas' deserved record - and that was entirely due to an incredible head to head close-game win streak by texas over houston.

"I'm showing that these signings would have helped us likely be a playoff team this year.

At the cost of crippling the team for the next five years? ANY ORGANIZATION CAN DO THAT. The Jays actually did, in case you weren't watching from 2013-2016.

And I'm willing to accept the downside in a few years time to get playoffs now.

Of course you are. You think the downside is that all the Jays prospects are going to be best-case-scenarios. Also, they're not spending YOUR money.

Especially since all these contracts will be done by the time our next core is ready to compete.

Yeah, like I said. Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna all walk? Except you have all kinds of numbers to show that not one of them isn't a HoF'er. Shouldn't the Jays keep those guys?

"It's not my place to prove you wrong. "

phew! cuz you sure ain't good at it.

but hey, I understand your need to tell me I use stats inconsistently. it's just that your need doesn't actually make it true is all.

"At the cost of crippling the team for the next five years?"

EE has 3yrs left on his contract. Maybe 1 or 2 of those bad, maybe none are.

Fowler is a good, 31yr old player. His contract expires at age 35.

There might be a couple years where these contracts are burdensome, some might even be crippling, though might not....but they'll be crippling at a time where we probably won't be contending regardless, so they're not actually crippling anything.

"Of course you are. You think the downside is that all the Jays prospects are going to be best-case-scenarios. Also, they're not spending YOUR money."
They're also not spending my money but are they spending yours? You sound like a Rogers bean counter.

mathesond- I can't imagine that there are multiple teams named COMHS out there. Assuming there aren't, I'm SNK American Dreams!

For what its worth I drafted Heyward- thought $7 was a good risk/reward at the time... Sadly Ottoneu does not value defensive contributions the way MLB does (I have Kiermaier and had Andrelton Simmons).

I know that some people prefer to toss insults and call each other "dumb" etc, but could I perhaps change the subject?

Here are some preliminary numbers for the 2018 payroll and available payroll room.  If the payroll remains at about $160-million, Sportsnet is estimating that the Jays will have about $25-million to spend on external additions (and the pre-arb players).  Personally I think the payroll should increase next year, but there's no guarantee of that, so let's assume the Jays have $25-million to spend.  Sportsnet says the shopping list is: one or two corner outfielders, a capable middle infielder to protect against the risk of Travis and Tulo injuries, a back-up catcher, and maybe a reliever or two.

That's a pretty modest list, and it's likely to be filled mostly with players who are already on the roster.  The only real challenge is the middle infielder (if they're looking for one who can hit, not just a good defender).

I'd like to see them aim higher, with some serious upgrades in the outfield and maybe a better plan for DH.  They need a drastic improvement in the offense.  That won't come from just Teoscar Hernandez and a middle infielder.

In isolation an absolute thumbs up on the Estrada deal. His underlying metrics give me great hope that with some outfield defence he will return to being an above average (or better) starter next year.
We need to see the rest of the offseason before really evaluating this move though. There were several moves that made sense in isolation last offseason that didn't make much sense when viewed with all of the other moves.

That's about what I think, although I am a little stronger on the deal.  I think that it is pretty much inevitable that the outfield defence will be at least as good as this year (not hard!) and almost certainly better.  I am not sure that it will be above average though.  Nonetheless, Estrada's ERA+ this year has been 95 and he's on pace to throw 185 innings.  All of this in a poorer year for him.  I like his chances of throwing 170 innings with an ERA+ of at least 95.  That's what you want from a back-end of the rotation starter.  Stroman, Happ and Estrada give you 3 pretty reliable starters.  Sanchez and Biagini are reasonable options to give you some innings- perhaps 200 in total.  You need one more starting pitcher, and I don't know where that need fits on the hierarchy of outstanding needs- a backup middle infielder and an outfielder being the others.  I do think that the backup middle infielder is very important- you do have to figure given the histories of Tulo and Travis that each can be expected to give you 450 PAs maximum; which leaves another 450-500 for the backup. 

I really wish that the club had called up Alford in September, as  I think that he is the best defensive outfielder in the system.  I worry that he's going to be held down for a good chunk of the season for service time reasons, and this will lessen the chances that Estrada performs at his best next year. 

Another starting pitcher could take up much of that 25 mil. I agree that a back up middle infielder is necessary but am not sure about the others. I am fine with Maile as back up C and there is not much available in that regard anyway.. A corner OF may or may not be needed but if so it will be someone on a one year deal. The same goes for relievers. I don't expect the Jays to be that active in the off season but you never know when a signing or deal may fall into your lap. Of course, an extension for JD or Stro could throw off all those estimates.

"They're also not spending my money but are they spending yours? You sound like a Rogers bean counter."

I suppose my point was missed.

The team has a budget. Spending a significant portion of that budget on free agents when the rest of the team's contract commitments are declining seems (to me) not the best allocation of assets. Feel free to disagree. Or maybe they're spending YOUR money?

Anthony Alford is not yet ready for the majors imo. Bringing him up prematurely could hurt his development. His power may not return till some time next season or later due to the effects of the hamate injury. He still has things to learn in the minors whereas Teoscar pretty much has to learn and improve at the major league level. I have no idea what they intend to do with Carrera or Pearce. Pompey is a wild card though he will surely begin the season in Buffalo.

Or maybe they're spending YOUR money?
Nah, already said their not. Yeah, I get the budget point. Sux being us, I guess. If we had the young guys raring to go I'd be all for it but they are mostly a couple of years away.

Nah, already said their not.

They're.

"....Another starting pitcher could take up much of that 25 mil..."

Let's say Brett Anderson for $5-million.  Luke Maile is cheap, and they probably don't need another reliever.  So that leaves $20-million for a corner outfielder and a middle infielder.   Should be easy to do, even if the payroll doesn't increase.

But I'd like to see a higher payroll and a couple of more ambitious signings.  It doesn't have to be a 7-year contract for $200-million.  It can be a middle-range acquisition.

On another subject, perhaps not many heard the Shapiro interview on Fan 590 today. Although he said the team would try and contend, he also emphasized that more of their time (and money I assume) would be spent on improving the system to the desired level. He said that next season would be similar to this except hoping for better luck in terms of injuries and that they should contend if this happens.

Anyone thinking there will be big moves for a serious run at the WS will be disappointed. He did not say that but that is obvious from listening to what he did say.

I see where you are coming from China Fan and it makes some sense but I think some of the young players need an opportunity. That's why I think a corner OF or a reliever would be a short term deal only. And what if they decide to keep Koehler for arb. It does not seem likely but is possible. There might not be a better option available. I think it will come down to the cost of the starting pitcher and then see what else can be done.

"Although he said the team would try and contend, he also emphasized that more of their time (and money I assume) would be spent on improving the system to the desired level. He said that next season would be similar to this except hoping for better luck in terms of injuries and that they should contend if this happens."

Seems reasonable. They either are in it, or sell off Happ, Estrada, Pearce, Donaldson and a reliever or two at the deadline for some prospects (presumably starting pitching).

Then 2019 is when the retool begins with all the kids hopefully ready to go.

He's been a very good defender year in and year out, even recently, aside from a couple of injury-crushed years, including this year....though this year was far from his worst. And that's of course granting that we should even take half-year defensive stats seriously.

Nobody is going to debate that Tulo was great defensively in his prime. Should the organization not take age declination and injury issues seriously, though?

Anthony Alford is not yet ready for the majors imo. Bringing him up prematurely could hurt his development. His power may not return till some time next season or later due to the effects of the hamate injury. He still has things to learn in the minors whereas Teoscar pretty much has to learn and improve at the major league level.

I am not suggesting that Alford has to be brought up at the beginning of 2018.  I wish that he had brought up, as Urena was, despite it being perhaps desirable for him to open the season in Buffalo.  It seems to me that the club had the notion that Bautista, Pillar and Morales were going to play every day in September, so there was room only for one outfielder, Hernandez.  This is unfortunate.  I asked here if there was any reason why the club did not call him up and no one came up with an alternative explanation. 

Alford turns 24 in July.  Speed is one of his strongest assets, and is important to him on both sides of the ball.  It's a (modestly) declining asset at this point, but you do have to balance development with the declining asset aspect in his case. 

For those who did not hear it, Shapiro was also asked about Vlad. He pretty much poured cold water on any thoughts he would be here in 2018. He did emphasize that there is no pre set timetable.....that it is up to the player. But he added that he would have to destroy(his word) every successive level from where he is now to and including AAA before he would be summoned.

On the subject of JD, he said that it was almost certain he would begin 2018 as a Jay. He said that an extension was possible but only if it made sense for the team and the player and that he did not know where it was going at this time.

I guess what I'm trying to figure out is how one can make a case that the great Blue Jays players are going to always be great into their 30's despite evidence shown by a hundred years of similarities, or bounce back AGAINST a hundred years of similarities (when they're healthy, because the team has to pay them even when they're not) in order to project those players over 162 games of being healthy.

Especially when those players are trending downward harder than the healthy version of their comparisons.

Age declination? I'm more worried about the young prime-of-career players who keep getting injured (Travis, Pompey, Sanchez....

I dunno. The organization can cut bait on those guys any time they have to. I'm more worried about the guys they have to pay no matter what.

:They're."
Thanks teach

"....The organization can cut bait on those guys any time they have to...."

I would argue the complete opposite.  The young guys (especially Sanchez and Travis) are crucial to the team's future.  I would be much more willing to cut bait on an older veteran like Tulo -- if he fails to improve.  The Jays were able to cut bait on Vernon Wells and Jose Reyes, they should be able to find a way to cut bait on Tulo if they have to.  Other teams have been able to get rid of high-priced contracts when they didn't work out.  Even if you have to pay the guy, it can be done.  Unless the Jays ownership is incredibly cheap, they should be able to do it.  I consider Tulo already paid-for anyway: he helped the Jays reach the league finals in two consecutive seasons.  If they cut him in 2019 or whenever, no big deal.  (In relative terms of course.)  He has already done the job for which he was acquired.

EE has 3yrs left on his contract. Maybe 1 or 2 of those bad, maybe none are.

But maybe that's just stuff you're saying. You're not even providing any cherry-picked stats to back up your opinion! Years and years of comparisons say otherwise!

Fowler is a good, 31yr old player. His contract expires at age 35.

See above. Also, see my post about how maybe the Jays wouldn't have gotten him for the same money as St. Louis. Sheer quantity of posting doesn't make your opinion any more credible, and even if it did, I doubt the organization is going to change their direction based on your posts, even when you DO have doctored numbers to back up the opinions you post ad nauseum.

There might be a couple years where these contracts are burdensome, some might even be crippling

Even by your own admission, these contracts might be crippling, and they still should've been tendered? Encarnacion and Fowler weren't going to get the Jays into the playoffs this year. They would have AT BEST given the Jays a chance at the second wild card. By your own admission. The contracts will still be on the books for another three years when the Jays don't even have a hope at the second wild card.

I would argue the complete opposite. The young guys (especially Sanchez and Travis) are crucial to the team's future.

I hope you're right, but what if Sanchez never recovers from the blisters? What if Travis somehow becomes MORE injury-prone? At least they CAN let those guys walk if they have to.

The Wells contract was dumped because of ridiculously-awful management by the Angels, and the organization paid a ton of prospect value in order to acquire a BIGGER commitment to dump the Reyes contract. Is that how a successful team does business? If they can make more Wells trades (without the Napoli boondoggle follow-up) then sure, but man, there aren't that many incompetent front offices left in MLB.

".... Is that how a successful team does business?...."

The Jays were, by definition, a successful team for the past two years.  So, yes, that's how a successful team did business.   As you know, I don't buy the gloom-and-doom on a financially affluent team with a big national market, lots of TV revenue, one of the highest attendance records in the league, and a team that made the playoffs in two of the past three seasons.

"....for another three years when the Jays don't even have a hope at the second wild card...."

You're already predicting that the Jays have no hope of reaching the playoffs in any of the next three years?  Wow. 

"Even by your own admission, these contracts might be crippling, and they still should've been tendered?"

correct. having bad contracts in some years, especially in noncontending years, is not the greatest evil.

i've always found it funny that the same people who seem horrified that we might have some dead money down the road because apparentky it will hurt our hopeful chances in some future years are so willing to accept hurting our current real chances in current years.....as if those wish upon a star future years are more important than now.

"Encarnacion and Fowler weren't going to get the Jays into the playoffs this year"

looks like they would have, actually. and they weren't even the best ways to spend that money. just good ways.

"You're already predicting that the Jays have no hope of reaching the playoffs in any of the next three years? Wow."

even better, he's upset that anyone would be ok having some bad contracts during those years he thinks we can't contend in no matter what.

why? i dunno. I would say he must work for rogers but even rogers wouldn't care about $20m or 5 wins or whatever.

to move onto another fun subject.

Osuna should start next year.

I don't care about Rogers' money. I DO care about the Blue Jays payroll going forward.

FWIW I wish the responses would address my entire posts instead of cherry-picking specific quotes, but I guess that's pretty much par for the course, huh.

I don't know if you can call Hoffman, Tirado and Castro 'a ton' of prospect value.  The Rockies let Castro go for a PTBNL, Jesus Tinoco is fringey at best and we may have sold high on Hoffman - he certainly hasn't had much success with Colorado, although it's hard to evaluate pitchers there.  He will be 25 next season, is running out of options, and has yet to establish himself in the bigs.  Plus we got Hawkins for half a season. 

The Estrada deal is solid IMO, and I agree with Shoeless that a Mike Minor type reliever would be a good add.  Our pen looks strong, but I continue to be underwhelmed by our lefty relief options - Dermody and Girodo are both far too hittable, and likely only have value as depth relievers with options.  Non tendering Loup and using the money on a legit lefty setup man makes far more sense to me than adding an OF.  We can mix and match Zeke and Pearce to cover LF and run with Pillar in CF.

I still think Zach Cozart is the best target for the team - Dave Cameron speculated that he'd get 3 years at 12 million per in a chat today.   He's only ever played SS in the bigs, but as a plus defender, I'm sure he could handle 2B and 3B.  Mike Minor, Brian Anderson and Chris Ianetta would eat up the available money China Fan speculated we'd have remaining, likely a bit more, but that would be a strong offseason IMO.

The best offseason would involve moving Morales, but at this point, I think the org is hoping for improvements.  Not much point in dumping a guy at his lowest value if there is any chance of a bounce-back - if Morales improves at all, it's far easier to move him with another half season of salary paid by Rogers.  I just hope the org limits his role. 

I don't know if you can call Hoffman, Tirado and Castro 'a ton' of prospect value.

If you're building an organization based on hindsight, I suppose not. At the time, Hoffman was the 24th/52nd/68th best prospect in all of baseball, according to the three most respected scouting aggregates. Tirado was #76 for BA the year before. Castro was well-regarded even if the Jays promoted him far too aggressively. None of them have turned into All-Stars at the MLB level since then, but they were all considered very solid prospects at the time.

This is another thing that bothers me with the hindsight way of thinking by some posters here. It doesn't actually MATTER that they haven't panned out yet. They had a ton of value at the time of the trade, and if the Jays' scouting was so far advanced beyond the rest of the league to see that there were problems with these prospects that no other organization could see, why couldn't they trade them for a return better than essentially picking up a better player with a LOT more contract commitment?

It drives me crazy to read how people think a trade was a steal for the Jays in hindsight because the highly-regarded prospects didn't pan out. They weren't traded after they didn't pan out, they were traded when they were highly-regarded prospects! The quality of the asset is important at the time of the trade, not several years later when it turns out they weren't as good as the entire league thought they were. If the Jays had such an amazing scouting and development system, they'd be destroying the entire league in drafting and development.

But they're not. At least, not yet.

Anyone thinking there will be big moves for a serious run at the WS will be disappointed.

All I want is a half-decent 5th starter--Anderson would do--and a mlb caliber backup infielder.
That doesn't exclude signing anyone left standing early next year which is how Cleveland landed EE.

Happy to have Estrada back. That's the difference  between wanting to play in Toronto and wanting Toronto to beat the best offer in free agency.

Now, just need to figure out how to deal with the Rays when he's pitching.

to move onto another fun subject.

Osuna should start next year.

No.

Hoffman being a perfect trade high candidate - i.e. a guy whose reputation far outweighed his performance - is not just "hindsight". what he's done since the trade is right in line with what he was doing before the trade.

and even then, you would think that all the prospect failure would recalibrate people's valuation of what prospects are actually worth. it's not just luck that most of the kids we traded didn't pan out. that's expected.

"At the cost of crippling the team for the next five years? ANY ORGANIZATION CAN DO THAT. The Jays actually did, in case you weren't watching from 2013-2016."

The Jays were so crippled heading into 2016 (even your timeframe is wrong, AA was already gone by 2016 and Shapiro certainly didn't cripple anything other than the team's chance of contending in 2017 after having a good offseason the year prior) that they were projected by pretty much everybody to make the playoffs via at least the wildcard, and many had them winning the division. Prior to 2017 people had them again around 85-86 wins with a good chance at a wild card, and within a few months it was clear they had the best hitting prospect in all of baseball. Maybe AA doesn't make the 2015 moves with job security (and his foray into the big-ticket trade market prior to 2013 suggests otherwise), but I'm glad he left this organization in such a crippled fashion after the 15 years that preceded him.

Hoffman being a perfect trade high candidate - i.e. a guy whose reputation far outweighed his performance - is not just "hindsight". what he's done since the trade is right in line with what he was doing before the trade.

Well sure, I remember the many times you said that before the Jays traded him.

Oh wait. I actually don't remember that at all.

Trading Hoffman was hard back in the Tulo trade but he was needed if the Jays wanted to dump Reyes as well. Was Hoffman/Castro/Tirado worth $50 million? In retrospect no and I suspect at the time most of us still would've said 'no' even though most of us were 'woohoo' on Hoffman's potential.

Meanwhile the current regime has gone the opposite way - taking on salary in exchange for prospects, mostly around Liriano. Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez in exchange for eating Liriano's contract at the time (about $17 mil left), then getting Teoscar Hernandez in exchange for eating what was left of Aoki's contract sending Liriano off (around $2 mil). Given Aoki provided 0.2 WAR and Teoscar is at 0 so far while Liriano provided 0.7 total over his 2 years and the first 2 prospects are still in the minors it is still a potential in exchange for $19 million less the value of 0.9 WAR (about $8.1 mil based on $9 mil per WAR) thus $10 mil for the future potential of 3 guys - McGuire, Ramirez, and Hernandez. I like that deal.

"Well sure, I remember the many times you said that before the Jays traded him.

Oh wait. I actually don't remember that at all."

Feel free to check the record, cuz your memory is failing you.

Parker, my comment about the prospects was an attempt to engage with you and move the conversation forward (a conversation which always seems to stall out when you show up) so that all posters can enjoy the discussion, not just you. 

You want to accuse me of hindsight, fine, but there was a lot of discussion on the Box at the time of the deal that the three prospects dealt were 'sell high' candidates - Uglyone in particular (if I recall correctly) was down on Hoffman, I was strongly of the opinion that Castro's having made the bigs had inflated his value, and Tinoco (my bad, I wrote Tirado, different guy) was always a project. 

My post wasn't simple hindsight, although hindsight does substantiate the opinions of many of us at the time.   Not every post is evidence of some sort of false logic epidemic - the Box has the highest calibre of conversation of any of the sports sites in the city that I am familiar with. 

Who called the Tulo deal a steal, anyway?   

I actually don't remember that at all

uglyone has been consistent on this point for as long as I can recall.

Very true uglyone - the vast majority of prospects don't pan out. Check any first round of the draft and you can see that even though everyone signed in the first round gets over $1 mil with many getting much more than that.

AA saw prospects as poker chips to be used to acquire quality ML players. He also tried to maximize the number of those chips by playing around with the draft early on (remember him trading for a potential free agent in the offseason just to offer arbitration and let him go).

The current front office is at the acquiring stage with prospects. We'll have to wait and see to learn if they are as willing to part with them once the team is back in contention. The first Liriano trade showed how they could get a potentially useful part (who was very useful) and add prospects at the same time by using Rogers cash. This year they again used Liriano and got an extra player (Aoki) in an effort to gain more prospect value in Teoscar Hernandez and thus far looks like a good deal. If 1 of the 3 develop into a ML regular the deals will go down as great deals, if none do it'll still go down as a good pair of deals due to the 3 poker chips plus the value of Liriano when the Jays needed it in 2016.

The prospect value issue - look at the Jays 2010 draft as an example. 10 of 56 have reached the majors so far, 3 with negative WAR value (all traded by AA - Nicolino, Nolin, Wojciechowski), 2 more under 2 WAR total so far (Danny Barnes and Dalton Pompey). 2 didn't sign (Kris Bryant and Chad Green) leaving us with real value in Noah Syndergaard (traded), Aaron Sanchez (injured), and Sam Dyson (lost on waivers). Of those who signed just Syndergaard and Sanchez are strongly desired while Dyson and Barnes are useful spare parts and Pompey had some value in the playoffs as a pinch runner. That draft probably cost around $10 million and was good value for the money. The top pick at #11 overall was Deck McGuire who just reached for Cincinnati after being sold by the Jays to Oakland, released by Oakland and signed by the Dodgers, left as a free agent and went to St Louis, left as a free agent and went to Cincinnati where he finally now has 2 2/3 IP in the majors.

So yes, you never know with prospects. The 'if only' is Chris Sale  who was taken 2 picks later than Deck and Yasmani Grandal  who was taken immediately after Deck. FYI: the 3 picks before McGuire have a total of 1.2 WAR over 400 games so the Jays aren't the only ones who picked wrong. Bryce Harper was the #1 overall pick that year yet despite massive success is just 3rd in WAR (Chris Sale, Manny Machado). FYI: Sanchez was in exchange for losing Marco Scutaro while Noah was in exchange for failure to sign 2009 sandwich-round choice James Paxton (now up to 7.7 WAR lifetime, free agent after 2020 season)

As to the Hoffman/Reyes/etc for Tulo trade the thread is right here.

uglyone said at one point:
people have to really take a slow sober look at these prospects. the likely bet is that only one of them turns into a signigicantly above replacement player, let alone impact player.

"having bad contracts in some years, especially in noncontending years, is not the greatest evil."

Apparently this should have been a contending year. So when are the non-contending year(s)?

And shouldn't management aim for something a little higher than "not the greatest evil?"

I think there is a decent chance EE's production follows Bautista's at the same ages. Jose started to fall off the cliff last year (he was 35 yrs old) with increased K's and lower batting average.

EE's (who turns 35 in Jan) average has gone from .277 to .263 to .254 this year. His strikeouts have gone from 98 to 137(a career high) to 127 in an incomplete season this year. His War has gone from 4.7 to 3.7 to 2.4 this year.

Seems to me that he is on track next year for Bautista's season last year (.234 and 1 WAR) at 17 million and then 20 million for the fall off the cliff season and then a $5 million buyout.

I think I am happy the Jays didn't do that contract.

Brett Anderson's stock just took a hit. His line in tonight's game: 1.1 7 7 7 2 1

Make that 1.1 7 8 8 2 1

You know what'd be great next year? Innings. Good, ole, boring starting pitcher innings. The blander the better.

Improved defense would help with that. Some positions where this could realistically occur include right field, left field, shortstop, second base, and backup catcher (by having a decent #2 catcher for the entire season instead of just part of a season).

Estrada was a good signing at a good price. Anderson can’t give the Jays 100 innings let alone the 180-200 inning they will need. I can’t see signing him at any price. Biagini will be stretched out only as Sanchez insurance. Biagini is just a 5th Starter when the Jays might need more.

I forgot to put on the game, so I don't know if there was any butchery afield. I think finding somewhere to dump Morales in a bad-for-bad $$ swap would be a good start. That way, the team could use a competent multipositional player or two to rest the regulars (and take over a position if need be). Maybe a Jed Lowrie boring competence type, or a change of scenery upside play like Profar.

The Jays need a good Starting Catcher who can catch 70 or more games backing up Russell Martin. Russell should catch 3 games in the 5 Game weeks, 3 or 4 in the 6 Game weeks and just 4 in the 7 Game weeks. He needs to stay healthier and the Jays need a better backup when he can’t.

Maile is a fine back up catcher and being here from ST onward will help stabilize the pitching staff and the defense. There will be more off days next year. Martin should be good to play at least 4 or 5 times a week.

"Anderson can’t give the Jays 100 innings let alone the 180-200 inning they will need."

Agree with you on the Anderson part, but not the 180-200 innings part. Starters are being pulled earlier and earlier each year as managers lean more and more on their bullpens. Last season only 9 AL starters pitched 200, 25 total pitched 180 - less than 2 per team.

There will probably be another 9-10 200 inning guys this year - these are mostly aces who managers have little issue having go 3rd or 4th time through an order.

But there won't even be 25 180 inning guys this year - Sonny Gray at 151.1 IP is 25th. probably between 15-20 pitchers will make 180 in the entire league.

In reviewing the Tulo trade thread from 2015 that John Northey linked, one comment that was prophetic to me was by Jonny German who said," For me this trade hinges entirely on Tulowitzski's health. His annual salaries over the next 5 years are entirely reasonable for a player of his skill level, but he needs to play at least 120 games per year."

Also it was fun to see many people speculating about another trade for a pitcher happening, but nobody saw the deal for David Price coming. As well, a couple of people ( One of them John Northey ) ironically suggested that EE might be traded to Cleveland. Well, he did end up there eventually.

It seems really hard right now to predict the offensive contribution of a backup catcher.
If the guy was good, he'd be starting somewhere and if he's a starter out of a job, he might struggle with playing only twice a week...
The defensive side is a lot more predictable.

Offer any Starting Catcher at least $8.0 Million over 1year to backup Russell Martin and most would say yes.

Feel free to check the record, cuz your memory is failing you.

My bad.

You never mentioned Hoffman at any time before the trade. Or after the trade, that I can find.

You did say Tulo's bat "legitimately plays even as a DH" though. Good call there.

You also used the term "objective" in a way that pretty much everyone should expect from you at this point. It's good to see you haven't compromised whatever principles you adhere to after all these years.

"On another subject, perhaps not many heard the Shapiro interview on Fan 590 today. Although he said the team would try and contend, he also emphasized that more of their time (and money I assume) would be spent on improving the system to the desired level. He said that next season would be similar to this except hoping for better luck in terms of injuries and that they should contend if this happens."


Not surprising. Rogers wants to keep the stadium packed and Shapiro wants to rebuild the farm system. There won't be a rebuild so continuing to do what they have done the past two seasons (mid level free agent signings to improve the big league team, hoarding existing prospects, adding prospects whenever possible, etc) is pretty much the best way to meet both objectives. I'm sure Shapiro knows contending in 2018, at least seriously contending, is a long shot, so aiming for the 2nd WC while rebuilding simultaneously might be the only logical path he can go.

UO did voice concerns about Hoffman prior to the trade. It's not just greenfrog who recalls him doing so.

Parker, my comment about the prospects was an attempt to engage with you and move the conversation forward (a conversation which always seems to stall out when you show up) so that all posters can enjoy the discussion, not just you.

I'm not sure what you're saying here, and I'm afraid anything I might say in response might offend you. I suppose the most inoffensive thing I could say in response is that you should not try to engage with me?

By the way, I find the remark you made about me how "conversation always seems to stall out when you show up" to be very offensive, and I'm considering retaining counsel to advise me on how I might pursue libel proceedings against you.

I think sticking Teoscar in one of the OF corners and living with any offensive struggles he has while hopefully getting value out of his defense/base running is the way to go in 2018. He will be 25. There's not much more he can do in the minors, and I think there's a chance he can be an average everyday OF overall. Alford will probably start in AAA, and I think the Jays will get an option year out of Pompey if he ever gets healthy, so he's likely in AAA as well. At least one of the outfield corners will hopefully be filled by someone currently outside the organization (and not Pearce/Zeke again).

google works! just for you parkie!

https://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=303236

Yeah, I remember ugly being reticent towards Hoffman, too, either just before or just after the deal (or maybe both). While I disagreed with him (and still do to a degree), he's been consistent on that one.

uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#304249) #
hoffman's lack of Ks are a big concern imo. He wasn't a K machine in college, either.

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20150703033031566

Thanks PeterG. I heard part of the Interview. But mainly about when the Estrada signing would be announced.

Sounds like JD is staying. But who really knows. He knows how to speak carefully.

I like that we have 4 of our 8 man rotation. We will maybe hear who gets talked up as a #5 favorite.

Bah! Ugly definitely wasn't reticent. More of a reluctance, or just generally unenthusiastic and lacking exuberance. Poor Hoffman.

"I think the Jays will get an option year out of Pompey if he ever gets healthy, so he's likely in AAA as well."

Is there doubt as to whether Pompey has an option left? Is it not the case that no option year was burned in 2017 because he was never healthy enough to be in the minors this year for anything other than a rehab assignment? If the thought is that he needs to get ABs at AAA to re-establish himself that's cool, but I'd bet his defense and baserunning alone would net out to make him a more valuable player than Carrera.

If his career is derailed due to a concussion suffered in the WBC, that would be a real shame. It was truly amazing that he was able to steal second and third in the 9th inning of Game 6 of the ALCS with no outs, and that the Jays proceeded to strand him there, with the MVP Donaldson making the 3rd out. He raised the Jays' win expectancy from 28% to 48% singlehandedly (double-leggedly?), and after Pillar's walk it was up to 55%. Jeff Nelson freaking hosed them with those calls on Navarro and Revere!

Parker, both my responses to you were in the spirit of polite discourse.  Your last response to me was intended only to offend.  your resemblance to an alt right troll is such that I believe you to be an alt right troll.  You should post elsewhere.  conversations here are always far, far worse when you participate.  You just bring this hateful negativity with you everywhere. 

I have no problem being harsh with Parker as a response to his insulting tone, and I think it would be great if other Bauxites did the same.  Gerry has requested this in the past - it's hard to be the only ones calling someone out for consistently violating the standards of polite discourse.  I believe everyone on this forum has a responsibility to help draw lines in terms of the sorts of conversations we want to have. 

 

Nope. It's clear Parker creates nasty arguments where there aren't any. It's not fun to read. It's obvious, and boring.

The one storyline left of this season I was really hoping to see pull through was Carlos Ramirez somehow managing to make it an entire season without allowing an earned run. Stupid Royals.

This has been a rough season to stick through for so many reasons, but in spite of that it looks like the team should still win at least 75 games regardless. That isn't particularly impressive in of itself, but it sure feels like this team has been much, much worse. I blame the lows of this season being just so... um, low I guess, that everything seems more hopeless than it is. Yeah this is a bad team, but their badness doesn't seem quite severe enough to seriously jeopardize 2018 as well, at least to me. As is currently gawddamn help us all, they've got some serious issues (which I need not get into detail over, we all know the score) so it'll be interesting to see how creative Atkins and or Shapiro are willing to be to solve those problems. We shall see.

Eephus, Rarmirez was my last storyline to follow too, sad to see the streak end.

No opinion on the discourse?  In my opinion, we all have a responsibility here, so I'm not a fan of changing the subject.  Changing the subject means that the same few people suffer from the bullying, while everyone else just ignores it. 

It will be interesting to see if Brett Anderson can bounce back in his final two starts. If he doesn't, I still think he's a decent option for depth next season, and the Jays should try to get him on a cheap contract, with the the proviso that they might have to stash him in the bullpen if he doesn't win a job in spring training.

There are reports that Anderson is very willing to sign a short-term contract with the Jays, but he wants an assurance that he'll be the 5th starter.

He might not warrant such a guarantee. However, he might not have the bargaining power to insist on it. I'd still like to see him signed for 2018 so that he can try to win a rotation spot in spring training. That would be a good way to protect against the possibility of Sanchez being unable to return to health. Alternatively he could compete against Biagini for the 5th spot, since both have been inconsistent this year.

"I don't know if you can call Hoffman, Tirado and Castro 'a ton' of prospect value. "


Hoffman was rated the #33 prospect in baseball mid-season 2015. (rated in between Albies and Mazara on BA list) Again, people put way too much value in how prospects actually turn out and not enough into their value at the time of the trade. The issue is not that Norris and Hoffman haven't turned out (as of yet) it's that the Jays had two extremely valuable commodities and a couple of other somewhat valuable commodities (Boyd and Castro) and turned them into one negative value player (negative when compared to contract) in record time. Trading Hoffman bothers me more than trading Yan Gomes or jettisoning Ryan Schimpf because it was not a reasonable expectation that they would deliver at the major league level. Trading a valuable commodity for a not valuable commodity is different. Can you imagine any well-run club doing that? The Yankees trading Blake Rutherford or Dodgers trading Alex Verdugo for someone like Choo or Heyward even if the other team through in the equivalent of a Jose Reyes contract in cash?

Even with none of the players being very good right now, the players the Jays traded for Tulo and Price got around 5.5 WAR of value in 2017. The Jays got 0 WAR for $20M.

It's remarkably easy to express a difference of opinion without being a jerk on the internet. You can't even see a person's face or hear their tone of voice for god sakes. Fortunately most on this site are excellent communicators who never need to sink to the level of insults.

There are, however, a handful of individuals here who are incapable of recognizing the difference between a person stating a difference of opinion and a person attacking them directly. Further, when they do misinterpret things, they are incapable of turning the other cheek and instead feel compelled to escalate things.

I fully support discipline for anyone consistently violating terms. If I wanted garbage attacks polluting the forum id go to the Sportsnet comment section.

Glevin, both your examples are from teams that are priority FA destinations with a $200 million payroll.

If you are going to talk about a prospect's value vs their result then you have to do the same with the player. It was a perfectly defensible opinion that Tulo would be worth his contact. I still have hope actually (although that opinion is increasingly indefensible).

Agree completely, China fan. The last two years have been very exciting for Jays fans and I don't think any of the prospects traded would have much of a difference for the team this year.

Tulo contributed and Reyes had to be replaced. That's fine to me.

The dickey deal was a failure because that deal was to improve the team in 13-14 at the cost of 15 and beyond.
Maybe if they have Thor in 15, they don't need to drop prospects to rent Price and they win it all.

Jerpapan. Apart from his mildly regrettable use of the D word, but I expect Parker represents the views of a lot of us who read but don't post. I don't have the time or energy to respond to each of yours or ugly's posts, but I'm glad once in a while that someone does. I've always liked the comments section here, but sometimes they can become an echo chamber of yours, ugly, and Chinafan's thoughts.

I don't get offended by very much, by I do find it tiresome to hear this repeated retreat into victimhood when someone hears a different opinion from their own. You have not been 'bullied', or assaulted, and you are not fighting the good fight by sticking up for the silent but oppressed. We are all big boys and girls, and should be able to deal with the occasional intemperate remark without casting ourselves as victims of abuse.

I have to completely disagree with you Beyonder. I don't know that anyone's claimed victimhood on this board. People have called out uncivil behaviour and personal attacks that seem to stem from disagreements. I would also  disagree that there is any kind of echo chamber of  jerjapan, ugly and chinafan's views. I seem to recall all of them disagreeing with each other on a regular basis.
I think intemperate remarks is overly polite, and again I have never seen anyone claim victimhood.

I don't even know what that means. Jerjapan said he believed there was bullying going on. I'm saying that no bullying has taken place. Someone was insulted, and the comment has been removed. That should be the end of it.

Would Syndergaard have been as good as he was with the Mets if he had stayed in our system though? He had the 100 mph 4 seamed fastball when traded, but his secondaries lagged behind. Prior to his first year in the majors, Dan Warthen had Noah change the grip on his curveball and taught him a 2 seamer, which played up his straightish 100 mph 4 seamer. He was really good. That offseason, he taught Noah how to throw the famed Warthen slider. That is when Syndergaard changed from really good to dominant.

Trivia time.  I've been thinking about the pitcher vs. batter confrontation and the "good pitching stops good hitting" adage.  So, the question- "who owns the highest OPS against Clayton Kershaw in 30 PAs or more and what is it to the nearest 100 points?".  Hint: it is not a Colorado Rockie, although Nolan Arenado is second. 

Colorado Rockie?  Colarado Rocky?  Damn, what do you call a Denver hitter who benefits from high altitude but has never been played by Sylvester Stallone in a movie?

If/whenever a disagreement is getting too prolonged, the antagonists (hope the word is not insulting) should try to end the conversation quickly. In the heat of the moment (someone can't take it an more,anyone) an insult is expressed and then a response is expected. Soon it gets out of hand. Back and forth insults are hurtful.

Nobody is perfect (100%) in predicting prospect development. I followed and liked D Jansen, Tellez and C Greene. Ugly and others get to share the award for D Jansen's rise this year. It feels good when a favorite makes it, many favorites don't, Jansen has not made it yet.
However Rowley and C Ramirez have made it. Unexpected for me.

In Dunedin Romano and DeGraaf have caught my attention. Both long shots.

"That is when Syndergaard changed from really good to dominant. "

that's been a narrative, but was it actually true? honing breaking balls and changing gripz on the way up is not exactly out of the ordinary.

Rk (18-18): 32.0ip, 28.7k%, 8.5b%, .275bip, 1.41era, 2.91fip, 3.44xfip
A- (18-18): 18.0ip, 30.1k%, 6.9b%, .326babip, 2.00era, 2.00fip, 2.77xfip
A (18-19): 112.2ip, 28.7k%, 7.6b%, .301babip, 2.64era, 2.33fip, 2.66xfip
-------trade--------
A+ (20-20): 63.2ip, 24.8k%, 6.2b%, .333bip, 3.11era, 2.64fip, 2.78xfip
AA (20-20): 54.0ip, 32.2k%, 5.6b%, .304bip, 3.00era, 3.36fip, 2.44xfip
AAA (21-22): 162.2ip, 25.7k%, 7.3b%, .357bip, 4.09era, 3.57fip, 3.55xfip
MLB (22-24): 361.0ip, 28.5k%, 5.2b%, .313bip, 2.92era, 2.60fip, 2.75xfip

aside from a little stumble his first year in AAA (he dominated for 5 starts there at age 22 pre-callup in his 2nd yr there) he was dominant all the way up.

"Hoffman was rated the #33 prospect in baseball mid-season 2015."

and what is the reasonable value expectation of a #33 prospect in baseball mid-season lists? (even before discussing whether he deserved that kind of ranking).

"You should post elsewhere."

nah. he should post here.

"The issue is not that Norris and Hoffman haven't turned out (as of yet) it's that the Jays had two extremely valuable commodities and a couple of other somewhat valuable commodities (Boyd and Castro) and turned them into one negative value player (negative when compared to contract) in record time. "

Whereas as I see the issue as trading most likely non-impact prospects for players which helped us become a back to back ALCS team.

and yes, tulo being an arguable top5 SS in those years wqs a huge part of that.

If Anderson is willing to sign a short-term contract with the Jays coupled with a "if you are the best 5th starter you'll be in the rotation" attached to it, I'm more than fine with that.  Not sure how anyone could demand a guaranteed rotation spot in his spot.

I really don't understand those who were upset, or are upset, over the "loss" of Norris, Hoffman, Boyd, Castro, etc. for Tulo and Price.  Those guys were both instrumental in 2015, and Tulo was a key part of 2016.  Last I checked, back to back ALCS appearances is not to be sneezed at.  In a world those trades are not made, there's no bat flip.  There's no Edwin walkoff in the WC game.  There's no Donaldson Dash.  There's no back to back knockouts of the Rangers.  I don't want to live in that universe.

uo - yeah it's true. Compare his slider pitch values between and second seasons. Also this:

In several interviews over the years, Syndergaard mentioned that he had tinkered with a slider, but had mostly used the slider principles Blue Jays and Mets coaches taught him to gain velocity on his curveball. Syndergaard had thrown a small handful of slider-like pitches in the majors in June 2015, but not with the premium velocity and break that would appear later.

http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/29/a-mightier-thor-noah-syndergaard-improved-pitches-warthen-slider/

between *first* and second seasons

your resemblance to an alt right troll is such that I believe you to be an alt right troll.

I actually had to look up "alt right". I already know what you think "troll" means.

Now that I know what you're calling me, I'm as much confused as offended. From what I can tell, you're calling me a white nationalist?

jerjapan, what makes you think that I'm white? It's one thing for you to think that you're being harsh, but you need to stop making assumptions that lead you to post hate speech.

Please, just stop saying those things.

fair enough hypo - i still think a very young pitcher improving one breaking ball is not exactly an unusual development, or one that should be credited much to coaching. look at our guys like stro sanchez osuna and you can see dramatic shifts in specific pitch quality from year to year.

jevant - anderson getting a guaranteed contract kind of guarantees him a spot for a decent while no matter what, no? (and ya i have a feeling we'll sign him).

nah. he should post here.

Thanks for the support, ugly. We have our differences of opinion and I do say some stuff that crosses the line of polite discourse when I disagree with you, but I have nothing but respect and admiration for your level of commitment. You're almost certainly right about Hoffman. I apologize for jumping the gun there.

I do think that last night can be seen as a throw away in the assessment of Anderson. I think that how he recovers (or doesn't) in his next outing will go a long way in the Jays evaluation of him as a viable starter for 2018.

The 2012/13 Offseason will always be discussed, forever. Like a dog with an old bone unable to put it away and move on. The biggest loss of that offseason was Josh Johnson turning into a pumpkin and ending his career here. The Jays, with all their problems, were very close to a playoff spot still into July. Does a decent Josh Johnson make a difference? Maybe.

parker - agreement is boring. and i am an annoying know it all who needs checking. and internet insults never bother me. and i was wrong about aaron Sanchez (I hope).

In the abstract, a young pitcher improving or refining a pitch makes perfect sense. They might switch grips to get a little more movement or control, or things like that. In this case, the slider was completely transformed from an upper 80s thing he barely used to a low 90s pitch he used as his primary, umm, "offspeed" pitch.

parker - agreement is boring. and i am an annoying know it all who needs checking. and internet insults never bother me. and i was wrong about aaron Sanchez (I hope).

Atta boy. Keep doin' whatcha doin'. :)

Also, thanks, Beyonder. That was more eloquent than I could've said myself.

Good humor M Green.

Shapiro has a long rope. His job is safe, IMO. That said, he will use the next few years to implement the organizations goals. There will be good luck and bad luck with everything.

Great attendance for 2015 and 16 was attained by being in a pennant race, good revenue. Playoff success is more $ in the pockets of the owners.

Except for TB all the other 2nd WC contenders should have good revenue this year. Shapiro and the Jays may never have to leave that comfortable area.

82 wins is too low for a 2nd WC. 87 is more reasonable. An 87 win pace on Sept 1 to go along with all the other numbers like # games back of the 2nd WC keeps us in a pennant race and produces good revenue.

A rebuild is tricky. Can this current system of ML players and prospects rebuild when the time comes at an 87 win pace.

Two hours later and no guesses on my trivia question.  The answer is Albert Pujols and 1.000 OPS (to the nearest 100).  My theory is that superior hitters with the platoon advantage will do well against superior pitchers, excellent hitters with the platoon advantage will do well against excellent pitchers...Pujols' PAs against Kershaw came almost exclusively when he was a Cardinal and a superior hitter. 

Checking Chris Sale, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout have been the best right-hand hitters of his time.  Cabrera has gone .283/.397/.528 and Mike Trout .294/.455/.529.  It looks like Sale pitches around Trout (perhaps it's not an irresistible force meeting an immovable object).  Edwin Encarnacion has completely dominated Sale also, but Bautista (especially) and Donaldson have struggled.

The best NL left-handed hitters of Tom Seaver's time would probably be Willie McCovey and Joe Morgan.  They both owned him, with OPS over .900.  Willie Stargell would be next, and he did pretty well. The best AL left-hand hitters of Roger Clemens' time would probably be Ken Griffey and Jim Thome (Barry Bonds faced Clemens only late in Clemens' career).  Griffey had an OPS of almost 1.000 and Thome almost 1.300. Clemens did very against Roberto Alomar.

i dunno, thor's velo seemed to go up across the board.

Yr1: 97.1fb, 87.9sl, 80.7cb, 88.3ch
Yr2: 98.0fb, 90.9sl, 82.4cb, 89.8ch
Yr3: 98.2fb, 92.4sl, 84.2cb, 90.1ch (small sample)

Yeah,major league bullpens are full of pitchers who never managed to refine more than 1 offspeed offering. Even a lot of guys who start don't actually master 2.

Yup, and there's a reason for his velo bump and his injury.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5310120-noah-syndergaard-admits-to-big-workout-mistake-prior-to-injury

Beyonder, not sure what echo chamber you are referring to but I disagree with China and Ugly as much as I agree.  I enjoy being disagreed with.  I do not enjoy unpleasant comments and do feel they are a form of bullying.  I really don't care if they are directed at me, but I do feel everyone has a responsibility to call them out.  Parker has a long, long history of this sort of behaviour, and it used to be much worse.  I'd prefer we don't go back to that era.  Ignoring hostile / rude comments could be perceived as tacit acceptance of them. 

Yes, all three have gone up, but there are definite qualitative differences. The graphs on fangraphs really highlight the tale. The fastball and changeup speeds underwent progression (and undulation), whereas the slider took a massive jump (and break change) between years 1 and 2 (3 mph, and even more exaggerated when looking at end of '15 and beginning of '16). The Curveball has a separate, continuously progressive growth - forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling! (this is especially apropos since Syndergaard began using the Wathan Slider in an attempt to increase the spin rate on his curveball)

Parker has a long, long history of this sort of behaviour, and it used to be much worse.

So I'm improving. In your line of work, your bosses regard that as a huge accomplishment. So like, good job?

Still waiting for an apology on the alt-right thing you said.

I have to remember to look up things I haven't read in a while, otherwise I might invent spellings. Warthen Slider.

Parker, I have no issue with you personally, but you did start it. How about you (and everyone else) just calling it a day on the personal stuff and just stick to baseball?

On the Brett Anderson question:  did anyone see him ripping apart a Jays hat with his hands (and teeth) after he was removed from the game last night??  Haven't seen that level of intensity from a Jays player for a while.  But I'm not sure whether that's good or bad....

but I do feel everyone has a responsibility to call them out.

Of course you "feel" that. You "feel" all kinds of stuff, and if it's something you "feel" is offensive, you "feel" that someone other than you should fix it.

I'm still wondering how that entitles you to promote hate speech. Do you "feel" that you get to label people based on how you "feel" without any evidence?

Does it make you "feel" that you get to redefine "bullying" based on someone disagreeing with you?

Cuz like, for the record, I wasn't even talking to you. Do you "feel" that if you go somewhere on the internet that you find offensive, it's YOUR "responsibility to call them out"?

Still waiting for the apology about the alt-right stuff you said.

Parker, I have no issue with you personally, but you did start it. How about you (and everyone else) just calling it a day on the personal stuff and just stick to baseball?I was sticking to baseball until jerjapan made comments regarding the color of my skin.

I wasn't even talking to you, even after all the posts you made quoting me. How about keeping the comments about my personal life to yourself, and let the moderators do their job?

I'm not on the Brett Anderson train at all for anything other than a minor league contract. He hasn't been very good for years, constantly injured and for the past couple, not very effective as well.

He did actually pitch 180 innings in 2015, the most snce 175 in 2009, but those 180 IP's were worth all of 1.6 fWAR.

Question to everyone about trading prospects - after we trade them, do you hope they succeed or fail? Personally, I'm in the succeed camp.

As mentioned before, we have $25 mil for 2018 before we match 2017's budget.

I would like a better SP option than Anderson and everyone else used this year. I believe that Biagini is the cheapest and also maybe the best, not by much. He had an inconsistent year. It was his 1st as a ML starter. Cheapest meaning ML Minimum to $1.5 mil.

There are a few X-Jay prospects like Norris and non X-Jays that have not established themselves but are running out of options. Norris, M Boyd and others could/would be arb eligible. Phone calls will definitely be made about this type of pitcher, I hope. They are depth pieces with a shot at the #5-8 spot. Also the Atkins depth SPs, prospects like Borucki, who have options.

Succeed camp for our traded prospects.

Fair enough.  Probably not going to give him a guaranteed contract if you intend to put him in the bullpen.

Absolutely succeed, for two reasons.  1) Why would I root for any young kid living his dream to fail?  2) Success increases the likelihood of developing a good working relationship between the GMs, so they have more built in trust.  Nobody wants to deal with someone who is always ripping you off.

Parker, you're mistaking me for someone else. I'm not sure what you're talking about with the "all these posts you made quoting me" comment, although if I do post something here, I should have the expectation that I may be quoted. And I don't ever recall talking about your personal life.

The one thing I will agree with is that alt right insult, which did not come from me, was wrong and only added fuel to the fire.

osuna should start

Parker, I have no issue with you personally, but you did start it. How about you (and everyone else) just calling it a day on the personal stuff and just stick to baseball?

That wasn't you?

Here are a couple of Blue Jay questions from the eastern league top 20 chat. The top 20 featured no Blue Jays.

A lot of people liked Conner Greene’s stuff but not necessarily what he did with it. He had the best fastball in the league and his curveball was in the conversation for best breaking ball, but he was more of a thrower than a pitcher, in managers/scouts eyes. He lived up in the zone a lot, for example, and could get hit. If he irons out the finer points of pitching and keeps the same stuff, the ceiling is very high. He wasn’t far off the list either.

And on Jansen:

Scouts who I talked to saw him more as an offensive-minded backup type of catcher with work still to be done defensively. Particularly, needed work on his lateral agility as a blocker.

Parker, now you lash out at Hyperbole, one of the most reasonable posters out there? 

I made no comment on the colour of your skin, but if you want to pretend otherwise to score victim points, go for it.  Your rhetoric does remind me of the alt right, and I'm not apologizing for your straw man.  You brought the hostility to this thread, not me.  I don't need anyone to call you out for me, I'm happy to call you out myself, although I will make comments about how we as posters should moderate ourselves as a community.  If some have no problem with your posts, great, although clearly, I'm not alone.  FWIW, I do think you are usually less hostile than in the past, which is indeed a good job. 

Anyway, I've made my point.   Happy to drop it. 

That wasn't you?

That I wrote. The other stuff you brought up, I didn't.

"osuna should start"

No

how do you block posters again?

i'm thinking maybe we should start osuna.

Jeff Sullivan looking for the most improved hitter.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-baseballs-most-improved-hitter/

Smoakie is in the convo:

"Forget, for a moment, about all-inclusive results. What if we were to focus on process? What could be better than a hitter who’s gotten better at drawing walks, and avoiding strikeouts? Maybe you think this is flimsy, but I should at least make a point to include it. I looked at hitter K-BB%. It’s the same number that we use with pitchers, only, for hitters, you want a smaller K-BB%, instead of a big one. By this measure, the most improved hitter would be Justin Smoak. "

Smoak also second most improved in expected wOBA.

Sullivans final conclusion for the most improved this year? It's Jed Lowrie.

Okay, jerjapan. That is ENOUGH.

You haven't made any point. You've made comments that qualify as hate speech, and it is imperative that you stop doing that.

You called me an "alt-right troll". I already understood what you think a "troll" means. The "alt-right" part I had to look up. You called me a white nationalist, without any evidence that I have made any comments (ON A BASEBALL FORUM!) about my political leanings or the colour of my skin. At this point, you needed to immediately apologise, and I gave you ample opportunity to do so.

You did not.

I'm not really sure how you think you're entitled to make those kinds of comments, since the colour of my skin had never entered into discussion until you brought it up. I don't care how much hostility you think I brought to this thread, because after the "alt-right" comments you crossed the line into hate speech, and anything you said after that no longer had any value worth the time to read it. I don't care about ANYTHING you think you're entitled to say, and I don't care whether you feel you have to apologise for anything. In real life, you don't get to choose how you feel about your hate speech. The rest of the world DOES. I find it laughable that you would bring up "victim points" after you've made several posts about how bullied and victimized you've been on an internet baseball forum. I don't think you even know what a straw man is, but here's a link to educate you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

I asked you to apologize for the hateful comments ("alt-right troll") that you made, and I can't even understand how you think it's appropriate to make comments about how I brought the hostility to this thread immediately after you jumped in, uninvited, with your hate speech. You should be ashamed of yourself for even composing the post I'm replying to, but the fact that you DID compose that post only illustrates further that you are somehow not even aware of the blatant offensiveness of your original unsolicited comments. The fact that you think it's appropriate for you to broadcast this type of moral authority is really quite amazing, given the fact that you seem to not even be aware of the offensiveness of your own comments.

I can't really conceive of a scenario where you shouldn't be ashamed of yourself after making these posts.

basta

If you not value someones opinion, or if you think someone is just looking for a fight that you don't want, just ignore them. Don't engage with them, don't even read their posts. I don't believe we have a block option

I have said this before and I will say this again, you are looking for trouble if you think you can change someone's opinion on the internet. It happens rarely and you waste a lot of brain cells getting there.

There have been a number of posts flagged as abusive over the last 24 hours. I have asked the roster for their opinions. One post was removed. But we operate very loosely and Da Box is generally left to police itself. Some of you have made your point and stated you will leave it there. I think that is the best response.

i'm thinking maybe we should start osuna.

Tonight?

My post was composed before Parkers latest comment, FWIW.

i'm thinking maybe we should start osuna.

That won't fix anything. Snider needs to play every day.

jerjapan needs to be immediately banned until he apologises for the hate speech.

{Moderator} Gang - time to stop the name calling and insults. We are baseball fans here, this isn't the place for insults (btw, I know some who view being called alt-right as a compliment sadly enough but that is due to my being deep in politics).

Everyone drop it. What has been said has been said - much like when a parent walks into a room and hears their kids yelling at each other I don't give a rats patootie who started it, it ends now. Lets not get to warning letters and banning people, lets just walk away and move on.

time to stop the name calling and insults

You know what, just ban me.

I'd rather post on one of the forums where they have mods who explicitly ban hate speech.

Thank God I earn a living where I'm not forced to send my kids to a school where someone thinks jerjapan is actually qualified to teach children.

"If wRC+ is noisy, then two years of wRC+ might have the potential to be extra noisy."

That doesn't make any sense. Larger samples are worst now?

I just couldn't keep reading after that.

Parker,

You should communicate to the moderators rather than flood the thread with demands. As well, it might be both beneficial and practical if you make your requests without insults and disparaging remarks to other posters, otherwise you leave yourself open to contradiction.

Technically, they can be if you have a bias or a flaw in the system (since it would amplify over time). Not a worry with wRC+, though. There was talk about that with fielding stats a while ago (where a bias could be in the source data, because we don't have the same checks as we did for offense), but I can't remember where people ended up on that.

Wait... The word used was 'noisy'... yeah, no. The reinforcing biases point remains, though.

scott- yes, it would be a larger sample, and therefore less noisy, if he was totalling the 2 single years, but he's not.

He's comparing one single noisy year against another single noisy year, hence the extra noisy comment.

wRC+ is just about the least noisy stat i can think of.

"and what is the reasonable value expectation of a #33 prospect in baseball mid-season lists? (even before discussing whether he deserved that kind of ranking)."

Something of real value. For example, Clint Frazier was the #44 prospect and was the headliner to get Andrew Miller. Yankees traded 3 prospects outside the top-50 for Sonny Gray. A top-50 prospect needs to get back real value. Hoffman's value then was similar to Alford's now. It'd be like trading Alford for Chris Davis or Alex Gordon and then saying because Alford didn't develop as expected, it was not a bad trade. It was a terrible trade. Jose Reyes has actually been more valuable than Tulo straight up and his bad contract is done after this year and the Jays still owe Tulo another $58M. He has been the 23rd most valuable SS in the last 2 years (and not close to the top 15) and is paid WAY more than any other SS in baseball. I'm not trying to kick Tulo when he's down, I am just baffled how anyone could possibly see this as anything other than an atrocious trade. Tulowitzki has one of the worst contracts in all of baseball and the Jays gave up a top-50 prospect to get it.

Whether they "deserved" the ranking is meaningless because what matters is where people think they are and BA is a good measure of industry thinking. Your personal ranking is irrelevant in baseball circles.

ach, so much wrong to unpack there.

1) Value.

Using average WAR, the player values since the trades are:

Tulo 4.6
Miller 3.6
Reyes 1.3

Both the indians and jays have benefitted by a similar amount in terms of on-field value. This has cost the Indians about $12m so far, while the Jays have actually SAVED about $9m so far.

Moreover, Tulo contributed to 2 ALCS teams in 2yrs, by being either the 7th or 8th best SS in total WAR depending on which WAR you use, but top-5 in terms of WAR rate, while being 6th in wRC+. A massive upgrade over the unplayable Reyes, and an absolutely crucial part of the team transforming from an also ran into an elite team.

2) Double Standard in valuation.

You've set up a nice double standard for yourself in judging the different parts of the trade. You claim that we can only judge a prospect's value by what he was at the time of the trade, not by what he has done since. But then you claim that we can only judge a player's value by what he has done since the trade, not by what he was at the time of the trade.

This lets you use recent performance to "prove" that a player is not as good as what he was valued at the time, while not letting recent performance "prove" that a prospect is not as good as what he was valued at the time.

This is nonsense, of course.

3) Claiming that public prospect lists are an objective "industry standard".

They aren't. No team consults the public rankings when making a trade.

4) Frazier v Hoffman

Both with comparable upside in terms of tools, Frazier was younger than Hoffman, and had just been promoted to AAA at age 21, after easily handling every level prior while being at least 2yrs young for each level. Meanwhile Hoffman, at age 22, had just been promoted to AA after a mediocre stretch in A+. Frazier was the better prospect.

But even more importantly, Frazier was not / is not all that great a prospect himself. His bat profiles as just good, and even that's not a sure bet. And his defense is starting to look questionable as well.

Which again just underlines the actual real life value of prospects ranked in this range.

Im excited to see Parker posting again.

One of my favourites!

"Changing the subject means that the same few people suffer from the bullying, while everyone else just ignores it."

"I do not enjoy unpleasant comments and do feel they are a form of bullying"

Jer, just to remind you, you once commented on one of my opinions by saying "Thats stupid." Maybe you should be the change you want to see in the world (Ghandi) and apologize?

"Claiming that public prospect lists are an objective "industry standard".

They aren't. No team consults the public rankings when making a trade."

Terrible strawman. I never said. I said that Baseball America is indicative of how baseball as a whole values a player. If BA has someone at #33, many teams in baseball will have similar rankings. Where do you think they get the lists? Oh yeah..."Compiled the top 100 after discussions with general managers, scouting directors, farm directors, scouts, managers and instructors."

"Using average WAR, the player values since the trades are:

Tulo 4.6
Miller 3.6"

Except that's absolute nonsense and why WAR is a stupid stat when it's used absolutely like this especially when ignoring the importance of relievers in the playoffs. (Would you say Cody Allen and Jody Mercer have similar value because their WARs are similar?) Miller has been immensely valuable to Cleveland and helped them to the World Series by being mostly dominant. Tulo has been bad for the Jays in the regular season and mostly bad in the playoffs (Career 60 WRC+ postseason). Stop trying to make Tulo anything other than a bust. In the last two years (full seasons with the Jays) Tulo is 24th in baseball SS in WAR. 24th!!!! Miller has been the second best reliever. Even given the same salaries, no team on the planet would even entertain the idea of trading Miller for Tulowitzki.

"You've set up a nice double standard for yourself in judging the different parts of the trade. You claim that we can only judge a prospect's value by what he was at the time of the trade, not by what he has done since. But then you claim that we can only judge a player's value by what he has done since the trade, not by what he was at the time of the trade. "


It's not a double standard. Tulowitzki was 30, in the middle of the worst year of his career with a massive contract and coming off of a major surgery. Anthopolous too a massive risk and bet on a rebound. He lost. Well, actually, the Jays lost. If they had traded for a healthy player who fell apart with an unforseen injury, it would be different. Tulo's career path since the trade has actually been very normal. Steady decline but that decline started not in Toronto, but in Colorado.

Using average WAR, the player values since the trades

None of those players were acquired with contracts that end at the point when you can't prove they've provided surplus value, though.

"wRC+ is just about the least noisy stat i can think of."

So I asked Sully in his chat today.

hypo
10:03 how noisy is wRC+? mostly BABIP related?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03 That would be the greatest source of noise, yeah

"....Tulowitzki was 30, in the middle of the worst year of his career...."

I'm sorry, but that's a ridiculous comment.  When the Jays acquired him, he was a elite defender with an OPS of .818.  By any objective standard, he was one of the best shortstops in baseball.

He accumulated an elite 5.3 fWAR in the two seasons from 2015 to 2016.  He brought crucial stability to the Jays defence.  He provided leadership and was an above-average hitter in those two seasons.  He was a key reason why the Jays were so successful in those two seasons.  To describe the trade as "a bust" because he didn't look so good in 2017 is simply absurd.

Pubster, I'll apologize for calling your opinion stupid if you apologize for mocking me for sitting in the cheap seats ...

That was a long time ago man.  Let it go.  FWIW, I haven't called anyone or anything stupid since, and I do agree with you, best to dispute the points respectfully.  Likely hard to believe from this thread, but I am working on it.

When Tulo was acquired, he had a 106 wRC+ with the Rockies. He ended the season at 101. While AA likely thought that was just a blip and a bounce back was on the horizon, it's not like a decline starting at age 30 for a player like Tulo with many injuries and more recently a hip issue is all that surprising. He followed that season up with a 103 wRC+, right in line with 2015, and declined badly in 2017.

When you evaluate a trade in hindsight, you have to look at both sides. Does it make sense at the time, and how did it end up. There is a certain level of risk associated with every player, but especially ones who are injury prone and in their 30's. So while some may have expected Tulo to revert back to his pre-2015 stardom from 2016-beyond, what actually happened wasn't out of the realm of possibility. At nearly 5/100 left on his deal at the time he was acquired, that was an incredibly risky trade, and the Jays are feeling the brunt of it. I guess if the objective was to only get one good year when the team was at the peak of its win curve, then objective met, but the 4/78 he had left on his deal beginning in 2017 is kind of important in this as well.

If the Jays signed Tulo as a FA and he flopped, then it's more forgivable, but to trade actual assets to get him at ages 31-35 and nearly $100M, that's a pretty easy trade to pick apart at the time or in hindsight. He wasn't going to be an elite defender forever, and his bat was already declining when he was picked up. The red flags were there.

Is my memory failing me, or did Tulowitzki put up a mighty .697 OPS and a 89 OPS+ in 41 games for the Jays in 2015?  I'll give him a pass on the .625 OPS he had in the 2015 postseason, as that was probably influenced by the injury he sustained when Pillar decided to run right through him on a routine pop-up, but I certainly don't recall Tulo contributing a whole lot with the stick in '15.   

CF - When Jays acquired him, he was no longer elite defensively. He was good/very good. Look it up.

Also why use OPS? You do realize he played home games at Coors. He was at 106 wRC+. Thats slightly above average for a hitter, good/very good for a SS.

The trade was not a bust whatsoever though, Agree on that. His arrival turned an underachieving team into a playoff team, and he definitely contributed to both playoff runs.

...with an OPS of .818...

With half of his games played in Coors.

that was an incredibly risky trade, and the Jays are feeling the brunt of it.

SK - How exactly are they feeling the brunt of it?

"Pubster, I'll apologize for calling your opinion stupid if you apologize for mocking me for sitting in the cheap seats

Maybe instead just apologize.

That was a long time ago man. Let it go.

So was slavery. Maybe you want to make some offensive comments about that, too.

"I'm sorry, but that's a ridiculous comment. When the Jays acquired him, he was a elite defender with an OPS of .818. By any objective standard, he was one of the best shortstops in baseball."

An .818 OPS in Colorado. 106 WRC+ He had a 170 and 141 WRC+ the two previous seasons. While 106 is still good especially for a SS, it WAS the worst season of his career and MUCH worse than he was for many years when someone is 30 YO coming off a serious injury and having a much worse season than usual, it could be a blip but it could also be decline. That is not hindsight. The Jays bet on Tulo bouncing back which was a real possibility but he didn't.

"SK - How exactly are they feeling the brunt of it?"


He was $20M in dead weight this season, with 3/58 left to go. Unless he bounces back to become a 2-3 WAR player like he was in 2016, then the Jays are going to be paying him star money for his decline. Much like with Reyes when the Jays acquired him, the previous team got the best years of the contract, and the Jays gave up assets to get the worst part of it.

For this season, what difference does $20 million dead weight make, though? Even if he had stayed healthy and productive, even 3-4 WAR, this still wasn't a playoff team.

If he was a 3-4 WAR player, then he might be a trade chip who could get actual value in return. That would make a huge difference.

"Pubster, I'll apologize for calling your opinion stupid if you apologize for mocking me for sitting in the cheap seats ...

That was a long time ago man. Let it go. FWIW, I haven't called anyone or anything stupid since, and I do agree with you, best to dispute the points respectfully. Likely hard to believe from this thread, but I am working on it."

I was only mocking you because you called me stupid. I was standing up to a bully.

=)

"Except that's absolute nonsense and why WAR is a stupid stat when it's used absolutely like this especially when ignoring the importance of relievers in the playoffs."

yeah, it's not nonsense that one of the better SS in baseball is more valuable than any reliever. It's no coincidence the Jays' fortunes flipped completely after the trade.


"It's not a double standard. Tulowitzki was 30, in the middle of the worst year of his career with a massive contract and coming off of a major surgery. Anthopolous too a massive risk and bet on a rebound. He lost."

heheh. "it's not a double standard"....followed by you directly applying your double standard again.

Hoffman was an overrated prospect who simply did not look good right out of the draft (and injury). AA took advantage by ditching him for one of the best SS in the game, and turned his team into a powerhouse.

Pubster, you had insulted me, and a variety of posters, prior to the 'stupid' comment.  I replied in kind.  I find it odd how such a hostile poster is so delicate when talked to in the manner they choose to employ with the majority of their posts.  You are doing it now.  Anyway, for the sake of everyone else, I'm not going to say anything else on the matter, and I hope you can agree with that for the benefit of everyone else posting. 

I think this thread has run its course.

Re-opened for the historical record but ready to be closed again if hostilities re-commence.

Since the thread is open again, I'll just respond briefly to the Tulowitzki debate.  You guys make good points, but I'm still don't see any grounds to call the trade a bust.  Whether his defence in 2015 was "elite" or merely "good/very good", it doesn't alter the point:  Tulo was a significant upgrade for the Jays and it solidified the team's defence and provided crucial leadership for the playoff drive, similar to the leadership that Russell Martin has provided. The Jays didn't give up much in the trade in exchange for him, unless you're a huge believer in Jeff Hoffman.  Tulo's salary hasn't prevented the Jays from doing anything so far, and it certainly won't prevent the Jays from doing anything in the future if Rogers provide a payroll commensurate with the revenue that the team is generating. 

As for Tulo's hitting at the time of the trade: I disagree with the notion that it was somehow massively inflated by Coors Field.  His home field OPS was .834 at the time of the trade, so it only marginally affected his overall OPS of .818 at the time of the trade.  He had the third-highest wRC+ of all NL shortstops at the time of the trade, and wRC+ is a park-adjusted and league-adjusted metric, so it eliminates any Coors Field advantage.  Moreover, to compare him to his own previous seasons is absurd because his career hitting was at such an extremely high level.  Don't compare him to himself; compare him to league averages.  By any metric, he was an above-average defender and an above-average hitter at the time of the trade, and that's reflected in his 5.3 fWAR over the course of the two playoff seasons 2015 and 2016.   Last year alone, he was a 2.9 fWAR shortstop, and I don't see any reason to assume that he cannot ever return to that level.  His injuries definitely affected his hitting this year, but he is only one year removed from a 2.9 WAR season.

The most important point, however, is this one by Hypobole, which is the point that I've been trying to make: "His arrival turned an underachieving team into a playoff team, and he definitely contributed to both playoff runs."