Younger, faster, more athletic. Feels like we're getting there.

More fun to watch, eh? The kids are all right.  

Dan Haren tweeted this to Archie Bradley the other day, but I'll pass it along to Dominic Leone:

"Welcome to the exclusive "one career save club"."

I know september win streaks by bad teams happen all the time.....but the refreshed approach right now makes me more annoyed that we made so little ecfort to change things up during the season, especially in terms of fhings like trotting out a goins barney infield game after game after game.

I feel exactly the same way, ugly.
Real disappointed by the lack of effort to fix things up. I don't understand Smith Jr not being up.
Jerjapan has said it too. It feels like solutions were freely available. Maybe nobody was buying what was on offer, but it's really a let down when the whole season has been difficult.
Oh well.

/

Good point. I remember 1998 when the Jays switched things up mid-season and dumped a batch of vets (Ed Sprague 30, Mike Stanley 35, Juan Guzman 31, Tony Phillips 39, Randy Myers 35). Through July 31st 54-56, Aug 1st to end 34-18 (helped to put Roy Halladay into the rotation, among others). Then Ash couldn't handle having a guy known for lying about his fake war record (Tim Johnson) and fired him mid-spring training and brought in Jim Fregosi (ick), traded Woody Williams for Joey Hamilton (disaster trade), Clemens for Wells plus (actually for 1 year was good, but fell apart), kept flip flopping Kelvim Escobar from closer to starter, had a DH who had a 66 OPS+ in 99, etc.

Sigh. Even when Ash did things right he followed up with a lot of wrong. Still, clearly giving up mid-season was the right move and might have been this year too. Imagine if Steve Pearce and Darwin Barney were dumped mid-season so Richard Urena and Teoscar Hernandez could play. Bet the Jays would have had a better record. We'll have a better idea at the end of September.

The Jays are now up to 6 guys with at least 1 save (4 have exactly 1, Tepera has 2). In 2016 there were 5, 2015 had 8 as did 2014. I really thought I'd have to go back a lot to find that many with saves but guess the Jays are into letting multiple guys get saves.

There haven't been a bunch of guys knocking at the door this year for playing time. Fair number of arms for the bullpen, but outside of that...

All of Reid-Foley, Jon Harris and Connor Greene had mediocre seasons in AA, showing no signs of being ready for major league trials as starters.

Lourdes Gurriel has had injuries and taken time to adjust to North American baseball. Urena had a bad season in New Hampshire, showing no signs of being likely to out-hit Barney or Goins, even if development wasn't an issue.

Alford was rushed when we needed an outfielder, having had a great first half in New Hampshire... and got injured. Dalton Pompey has been injured all season. Teoscar Hernandez was acquired only at the end of July, and he's now getting a fair bit of playing time.

At catcher, Reese McGuire got injured, and only got back to AA in August. Danny Jansen had an amazing year, but he started in A+. I think he could have been promoted if we'd traded Martin at the deadline, but that would have been extremely aggressive, for a guy who then had only experienced moderate success in a month or so of AA.

The best argument would be for Dwight Smith Jr - and later, Roemon Fields. But it would take extreme good fortune for either to turn into regulars.

The fact is that there simply wasn't the raw material for a significant youth movement this year. Hopefully that won't be the case next year, but we should not mourn the playing time of Pearce and Bautista et al this year.

Don't look for the cloud in the silver lining, it is flat out fun to see the younger guys play. But it wouldn't be as fun to see some of the mess ups if we were fighting for the playoff spot, so enjoy the young guys.

I imagine one of the more important things for next season isn't which young guy gets a dozen games in September, but more can we figure out how to get Sanchez healthy and able to pitch? Can our starting middle infield be healthy at the start of the year? etc.

Agreed Michael. Good health is #1 and the hardest thing to work on for a club. Last year the rotation was in fantastic shape with only 7 guys needed, Travis got into 101 games, Tulo 131, Martin 137 vs this years 50-66-81 respectively. Their backups sucked for offense. That's 51-65-56 games that needed subs that didn't last year. Subs were mostly Goins/Barney 62-53 OPS+ respectively (next is Rob Refsnyder at 38) and for catching 4 guys with Luke Maile being the only one to get 100 PA so far with his -3 OPS+, next is Miguel Montero just 8 PA shy of 100 with his amazing 29 OPS+ (OK, just looks good vs Maile).

Sanchez dropped by 156 IP vs last year, Happ is 70 shy of last years total with a few weeks to go, opposite end is Estrada having 1 more start than last year and is just 7 1/3 IP behind last years full season total. Basically the Jays had to make up a full starter for the rotation just factoring in Happ and Sanchez. That is without the issue of Liriano falling apart (FYI: 10 1/3 IP for Houston 14 hits, 8 BB, 5 SO but no HR, 6.10 ERA).

Gabriel - it didn't need to be a youth movement to try something different. Many of the interesting new pieces have been not so young guys - anderson ramirez koehler santos lopez etc.

With the usual SSS caveats, it's heartening to see Marco Estrada looking a lot better.  He's made 2 starts in September with a better defence behind him and has thrown 12 innings with 7 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks and 10 strikeouts.  His seasonal BABIP has fallen to .304, and I'll venture a guess that it is below .300 when the season ends (and at his usual .240-..260 for the month of September).  I have long held the view that pitching and defence are synergistic- good defence allows a pitcher to use a wider variety of approaches to get a batter out and for many pitchers, Estrada included, allows them to pitch better (seemingly independent of the fielding) by trading off fewer strikeouts for fewer walks and home runs and somewhat more balls in play. 

I want the Jays to sign Estrada for 2018, since there's a good chance that he'll have a strong season. It's pretty clear that he wants to come back, and the Jays can sign him for a reasonable price. But it's also true that his pitching performances are becoming increasingly unpredictable and inconsistent. The solution, I think, is to have good options for the 6th and 7th starters -- whether it's Biagini or Koehler or others -- so that the Jays can replace Estrada if he implodes at the half-way point of next season. (I'm just tossing out the names of Biagini and Koehler as convenient examples; I don't know if they're the best options.)

Aaron Sanchez, by the way, is another pitcher in the same category as Estrada: he could be very good in 2018 or he could be injured again.

The solution might be a rotation that begins with Stroman, Happ and Brett Anderson, and then has 4 or 5 options available (including Sanchez and Estrada) for the next 2 slots in the rotation.

And reflecting a little on Brett Anderson's injury history, I should perhaps have suggested a 2018 rotation that begins with Stroman and Happ and then has 5 or 6 options (incuding Sanchez, Estrada, Anderson, Biagini and others) for the next 3 slots.

Both Anderson and Estrada are FA's this offseason, no?

Found something interesting on FG. Lefty starters - minimum 6 starts, 200 Fastball's thrown. Lowest FB contact rate is Rich Hill's 69.5%. Third lowest is Chris Sale at 72.9%. The guy between Hill and Sale?

J. A. Happ - 72.4%.

I want the Jays to sign Estrada for 2018,

I also would like this. There aren't a ton of great options, and if Gibbons can recognize his failings from this season and not play as many terrible defenders in the outfield for Estrada (and terrible defensive infielders for Stroman etc.) I think it will significantly help his reliability.

And reflecting a little on Brett Anderson's injury history, I should perhaps have suggested a 2018 rotation that begins with Stroman and Happ and then has 5 or 6 options (incuding Sanchez, Estrada, Anderson, Biagini and others) for the next 3 slots.

This feels like what the Dodgers did this season. I feel it would give the Jays a shot at a wildcard with better health than this year.

The best argument would be for Dwight Smith Jr - and later, Roemon Fields. But it would take extreme good fortune for either to turn into regulars.

I think Smith Jr is gone next season. He's the kind of player who does the same thing at every level, but it's not particularly impressive.He's a stopgap as a full-time player, and maybe lucks into good sample size numbers as a backup That would potentially have been the Jays' 2nd best offensive OF this season had he been allowed to play, but not getting any time now suggests there's no room for him. He can't be worse than Bautista at this point, even if he didn't play much.

Other improvements that could have been made include trading for Phillips - though he's done nothing for the Angels, so he might not have been an improvement over Barney/Goins.
Even with all the bad injury luck, this team could still have given itself a better chance to get to the playoffs, and then in September add fresh legs/arms.

I too want the Jays to sign Estrada. I kind of think they need to.

The question I have is what if he's not very good? What happens? He'll get the benefit of the doubt and be given starts over someone else who might be better because he's been good in the past. That seems to be what happens with veteran starters who have a track record. Longer leashes.

It must be one of the harder decisions - how far to let a guy in Estrada's shoes go before you replace him? We see it all the time and not just with pitchers. I mean, Bautista comes immediately to mind. Grilli probably got a few extra appearances for the same reason. If Porcello didn't win the Cy Young last year, would he be starting every fifth day with the Red Sox this year? Dunno.

Good point Super Bluto - bringing non-guaranteed vets in or guys on pillow contracts for an audition is very different from bringing them in without guarantees but essentially handing them the job because of their veteran-ness.  I don't get the feeling the current FO is ready to walk away from 'assets ' like Koehler and Loup.

For the rotation I'm in favour of the Dodger's strategy Lexi mentioned - Estrada, Borucki, Anderson, Biagini, Pannone, Rowley and Koehler (as a reliever first, and with a reduced contract) represent far better starting depth than the likes of House, Oberholzer et. al.  But the FO has to be willing to cut bait in a way they weren't this year. 

A Buffalo shuttle scenario for the corner OF spots would be interesting as well (unless someone wins the job outright) - plenty of guys with options in the mix, all younger and more athletic than the group we are currently running with. 

Anyone have a take yet on how Ramirez is pitching so well?

For fun, I tried to figure out the club's likely fixed expenditures for 2018 and the players covered at this point.  I ended up with:

• Martin, Maile, Smoak, Pearce, Travis, Tulo, Goins, Donaldson, Carrera, Pillar, Hernandez, Pompey, Morales as position players and
• Stroman, Happ, Biagini, Sanchez, Osuna, Tepera, Leone, Ramirez, Barnes, Loup, Mayza, Dermody
• $122 million spent (BB Ref has $125.6 but includes Tepesch and Koehler)
  

The club has Jansen and Alford who might be ready early in 2018.  It seems to me that the club has need of 4 players, 2 starters, a corner outfielder and a middle infielder.    You can argue about whether they need 2 or 3 starters, and part of that depends on how the club plays Biagini, Sanchez, Osuna and Tepera.

There is a long list of outfielders of average quality (and a couple better) who are free agents.  There really is no excuse this year for not getting one.  The middle infield major league free agent market is a lot more problematic, and it looks like any acquisitions are more likely to come through a different route. 

The only failing related to the outfield defence was the front office giving Gibbons 1 capable defender in Pillar surrounded by Bautista, Carrera, and Pearce. It was really frustrating to hear both Atkins and Shapiro this summer acting surprised about the poor defence.

I think that Ramirez best asset as a pitcher is how well he hides the ball in delivery. In other words he has deception. From what I can see there is also very late life on his pitches as they approach the strike zone. This may be something that is just natural to him rather than anything he has learned.

In fairness to the FO, there was some bad luck involved in that one. Both Pompey and Alford, who might have helped, were significantly injured.  Still it would have been a lot better if they had signed Reddick.  I have no idea whether he would have come here for some extra dollars and a whole slew of Bauxites whispering carelessly.

Mike, the problem with that view is that it is now clear that the Abominable Outfield was management's clear first choice. They've had lots of time to come up with an alternative plan and refused to do so.

The Atkins interview over the All-Star break was one of the funniest or most galling from the front office in some time.

I don't know, Nigel.  It might have been their "first choice" after the fact, but as I recall it, they didn't sign Bautista until later in the FA period until after the other guys were off the board.  It wasn't the same as the Encarnacion/Morales situation, where it was pretty clear that the FO didn't really want Encarnacion back (reasonable first offer but effectively withdrawn before EE gets the chance to test the market). 

Maybe the answer to the backup middle infielder question if and when Tulo/Travis need to hit the DL is Russell Martin. If he truly loves playing the infield, there's no harm in giving him some work at SS/2B this year and seeing how he handles it for a few games. If management believes one or both of McGuire/Jansen are on the cusp of being MLB-ready and Martin is a competent infielder, there's your solution right there, and it might even help you get the most out of Martin over the six month grind. I agree with uglyone's sentiment from the other thread that it would be weird for a team that isn't serious about contending to worry about the backup infielder before its other glaring holes in the rotation and outfield. Especially with what we've seen in this brief glimpse from Urena.

It was very evident that they wanted the picks for Bautista and EE more than multi-year contracts.

It was only when it became clear that there was no market for Bautista, and they were not going to get a pick, that they went back to him for a year.

As was mentioned, I am not sure that Bautista, Pillar, Zeke, Pearce, Pompey and another kid isn't a reasonable bet to start the season. Remember they had Upton Jr kicking around in the spring too.

It would have been easy enough to supplement this had the rest of the team been clicking, but this season started off bad (they only won 2 of their first 13), guys got injured, and the situation never justified expending resources on upgrades.

"....how far to let a guy in Estrada's shoes go before you replace him? We see it all the time and not just with pitchers. I mean, Bautista comes immediately to mind..."

I think the Front Office is more ruthless in these decisions when the Jays are actually in serious playoff contention.  Last year they dumped R.A. Dickey for the playoffs and replaced him with a trade acquisition (Liriano).  They also moved relatively fast to get rid of several non-performing relievers last season.  This year, they decided at the trade deadline that they didn't have a playoff chance, so instead of upgrading the major-league roster, they traded one of their best relievers for prospects.  (Joe Smith has been lights-out in 13.2 innings for Cleveland since the trade.) 

If the Jays were in a close-fought playoff drive and Bautista was the weak link, I think the Front Office would bench him for Hernandez or would acquire another outfielder.  The reason that Bautista is still playing every day is not because the Front Office is to weak to bench him, it's because they are out of the playoffs and it doesn't matter any more.  With no playoff chance, the Front Office decision on Bautista is influenced more by other factors:  the "respect for veterans" thing, the "all-time Jays icon" thing, and the "demonstrate to other free agents that they'll be well-treated if they sign with Toronto" thing.

Further to the question of the 2018 rotation, there is some supporting evidence for my argument that the Jays desperately need a deeper rotation depth chart.  In a piece today, Ben Nicholson-Smith quotes Ross Atkins as saying the following about the 2018 rotation:

"We could have a rotation, depending on a lot of variables, but having three or four young, optionable starters at triple-A,” Atkins said. “That hasn’t been the case for three years. It’s not ever about five guys. It has to be about eight guys."

In the same story, Nicholson-Smith suggests that Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone "could be among the available starters" in Buffalo next year.

It seems to me that Biagini is also optionable and could be in Buffalo -- if the bullpen doesn't need him.

If the Jays were in a close-fought playoff drive and Bautista was the weak link, I think the Front Office would bench him for Hernandez or would acquire another outfielder.  The reason that Bautista is still playing every day is not because the Front Office is to weak to bench him, it's because they are out of the playoffs and it doesn't matter any more.  With no playoff chance, the Front Office decision on Bautista is influenced more by other factors:  the "respect for veterans" thing, the "all-time Jays icon" thing, and the "demonstrate to other free agents that they'll be well-treated if they sign with Toronto" thing.

I do honestly believe if the team had been willing to bench Bautista, along with a few negligible in cost moves they could've made a sincere effort to get to the playoffs - even trading away Joe Smith. There was a time, though unlikely due to the number of teams ahead of them, that the Jays were still in it. That was when it mattered, and nothing was even tried.

I was thinking about that martin at 2B thing too, 92-93. Not to mention Donaldson at SS. Both have looked more than comfortable in their brief time at those positions. not sure they'd be the worst fill-in options in the world.

"We could have a rotation, depending on a lot of variables, but having three or four young, optionable starters at triple-A,” Atkins said. “That hasn’t been the case for three years. It’s not ever about five guys. It has to be about eight guys."

This idea that most teams have 3 or 4 mlb-quality kids in AAA just biding their time is a silly fiction. And having Hoffman and Norris and Boyd and Musgrove in AAA this year wouldn't have been an upgrade over perfectly findable cheapo pickups like Brett Anderson or Doug Fister or Joe Biagini or countless others.

Not arguing your premise. But as far as those "perfectly findable cheapo pickups" - yeah, good luck finding the one that will actually contribute. Almost all teams cycle through cheapo pickup drek before they hit the jackpot, if they actually do hit that jackpot.

Personally I see a move for Osuna from closer to the rotation as a significant possibility this offseason. I wonder if the pressure of the role wasn't wearing on him this year and contributing to his mental health issues... I know he's expressed a desire to start in the past and it might be worth a try.

He commands four pitches (and his reliance on cutters and sinkers is more of a starter's approach than a closer) with the only big negative being his ability to hold up over 200 innings... but if you look at him as a guy who can maybe give 160-170 quality innings per year then it's still a win.

"....This idea that most teams have 3 or 4 mlb-quality kids in AAA just biding their time is a silly fiction...."

Once again, you're completely misquoting him, in order to find something to ridicule.

Atkins never said that "most teams" have "3 or 4 MLB-quality kids in AAA."   He said it was an objective. 

Is there something wrong with that goal as an objective?  I'm sure the Jays have many objectives that aren't the current reality for "most teams."  There is nothing wrong with aiming high.

Also, he didn't say that the 3 or 4 kids in AAA would need to be "MLB-quality."  He said that they need to be "optionable starters." 

The plan, obviously, is that they COULD be worthy of promoting to the majors.  They're obviously not going to be the same quality as those who are already starting pitchers in the majors. 

It would have been easy enough to supplement this had the rest of the team been clicking, but this season started off bad (they only won 2 of their first 13), guys got injured, and the situation never justified expending resources on upgrades.

I don't agree with that part, Ducey.  They got hot in May and were a game below .500 and playing Chris Coghlan in the outfield.  The situation, in my view, justified a more concerted effort to improve the ballclub, first in the outfield and later in the middle infield once Travis went down in early June. 

Osuna has said repeatedly in the last year that he does not wish to start. Even if he did, it might require a long stint at Buffalo to build him up after 3 years of closing.

I see this as a complete non starter.

I was thinking about that martin at 2B thing too, 92-93. Not to mention Donaldson at SS. Both have looked more than comfortable in their brief time at those positions. not sure they'd be the worst fill-in options in the world.

Brief?  Martin played 2 innings at second base in 2015 and 3 innings in 2016 (and had 2 innings there earlier in his career).  He will be 35 years old on Opening Day 2018.  I don't want to see him anywhere near a pivot at second base.  Third base, as a backup, is another question. 

What a 21yr old kid says about changing roles while he's just exploded all the way up to MLB as an elite closer is not something to be taken as gospel for the rest of his career.

Presumably he meant Martin at 3B while Donaldson plays SS, which can work with the right SP (guys like Happ & Estrada) on the mound.

Ben Nicholson-Smith linked to the Blue Jays 2018 schedule on his twitter feed.  The club opens up at home on March 29 facing the Yankees.and a lot of off days, 4 in April, 4 in May (including Victoria Day in the middle of a homestand!), 4 in June, 3 in July plus the All-Star break and 3 in August.

With all those days off early in the season, running out a conventional 5 man rotation isn't great.  I'd love to see a 4 day tandem rotation with Stroman and Happ going 5 innings and the following ptichers going 2-4 for two of the days, and the other two "starters" being 4 innings, twice through the lineup guys.  It would amount to a little less than 200 innings for Stroman and Happ and less than 160 for the other 2 starters.  I know that it isn't likely to happen....yet. 

Osuna talking about starting and relieving.

https://sports.vice.com/en_ca/article/wnm8bn/roberto-osuna-doesnt-want-to-be-a-starting-pitcher

So he definitely wanted to be the closer this year. He likes to be a reliever. He knows the FO sees him as a starter. He seems to acknowledge the fact he will probably be transitioned to starting.

In May half the team was on the DL. They missed Pearce, Donaldson, Martin, Happ, Sanchez, Liriano, Tulo, Morales, etc. They tried to upgrade the outfield with Alford and then he promptly broke his hand.

On May 13, 53% of their payroll was on the DL. At that point they were 15-21.

They were down most of the infield and 3/5 of their starters for a lot of the month.

They beat Seattle, Milwaukee and Cincy that month. Probably says more about those teams than the Jays chances of making a run at that point.

Personally, I'd be investigating someone like an Asdrubal Cabrera, or another mid-level vet with the expectation that you have 3 actual competent major league players (Tulo, Travis, Cabrera) for 2 spots.  Way too many at bats to Goins & Barney this year.  Sign a decent veteran backup C to a 1 year deal to lighten the load on Russ, and let the kids force their way up.  As long as we are talking 1 or 2 year deals, they aren't going to block anyone (admittedly, you probably wouldn't get Cabrera on a 1 year deal, but with Travis and Tulo's and (gulp) Donaldson's history this year, you'll find minutes for him around the infield regardless). 

I have enjoyed the last week re: Urena as much as anyone, but take a look at those minor league numbers before we assume he's anything other than Goins 2.0.

well with 3 years of relieving in the books, it would be much more difficult to transition than many imagine. I doubt that the FO is interested in promoting this either even if they once were.

If Estrada and Anderson can be brought back, there is no need either. Why not leave him where he is most comfortable. Asking him to transition amongst the other problems would not be a smart move imo.

Congratulations to old whipping boy, Deck McGuire, he's finally made the show - the Reds have called him up.

They beat Seattle, Milwaukee and Cincy that month. Probably says more about those teams than the Jays chances of making a run at that point.

They didn't need to make a run.  They were a game under .500 at the end of May.  They just needed to play well. 

Beating Seattle and Milwaukee isn't bad at all.  In May, they also won 2 of 3 from Cleveland and Texas.  They finished the month 18-10 despite facing those five teams, while also travelling to New York, Tampa and Baltimore.  FWIW, they started off the season 2-10 facing Tampa, Baltimore, and Milwaukee.  It seemed to me pretty clear that they played much, much better in May, but also had obvious deficiencies. 

Russell Martin is off the DL for tonight's game. Good.

China, Ugly isn't really misquoting. 

Shapiro said the same thing a while back, although his scenario was even more implausible.  He was asked  'by Blair specifically about Ryan Borucki, and some of his fellow starters at New Hampshire'  about 'whether the group is “close to being able to making a contribution,” Shapiro began to draw a line between himself and his “call ’em up, only so many bullets in the gun!” predecessor. “I’m kind of a believer that if you have to ask that question the answer is probably no.”

"When we have four or five prospect starter types at Triple-A, and they’re all dominating the competition there, your answer will be there for you. And hopefully three to five guys right behind them at Double-A, and three to five guys right behind them at A-ball"

Four to five dominating prospects in the AAA rotation is a silly fiction, and both Shapiro and Atkins have been talking about it for a while now. The Atkins quote is actually more plausible than the Shapiro quote, but it's the same rhetoric. 

I wonder what San Diego would want for Yangervis Solarte - he's played at all infield positions,switch-hitter,power will probably play up in small AL East parks, with options can be controlled for 3 more years and if Donaldson leaves/traded can be a reasonable 3B stop gap option.

Blue Jay batters doing a lot of fishing tonight. must be getting ready for the off season.

"I have enjoyed the last week re: Urena as much as anyone, but take a look at those minor league numbers before we assume he's anything other than Goins 2.0."

Well, Urena at 21 has posted a 76wrc+ across AA and MLB.

Whereas when Goins was 21 he was posting a 78wrc+ across....Rk, A-, and A.

and whereas Urena posted a 134wrc+ across Rk/A-/A....as a teenager.

So imma assume he's better for now.

I am not sure when these interviews about 2018's rotation were done. Clearly none of our AA pitchers were ready for the show this year.

Maybe Borucki. He was on the 40 man roster so calling him up was easy. The others had to be added to the 40 man roster. But Borucki was in A+ for most of the year doing quite well. 19 gms A+, 7 gms AA and 1 gm AAA. He was quite dominating in AA and AAA so he a could have been a Sept call up.

I expect/hope all the AA starting pitchers to be in AAA at some point in 2018. Greene, SRF, Pannone, Borucki, Rios should get to AAA next year at some point. Also Rowley should be there. When that 6th-8th SP is needed, I hope they are more ready in 2018 than in 2017.

Chris Davis is another example of why big free agent signings are so often a bad idea for the acquiring team. 7/$161m from 2016-2022, and he has produced a total of 3.1 WAR through the first two years of the contract (0.3 WAR in year 2).

Greenfrog, Chris Davis isn't the best example ... that signing was ridiculed immediately and was based on retaining a hometown talent rather than improving the team.  I doubt you could find one positive comment on the signing from the Box or from informed online commentators. 

It's like me bringing up Max Scherzer as proof that FA signings always work.

Hernandez has had consistently good ABs (regardless of outcome) in the last 6-7 games.

Big-money FA signings sometimes do work out, but often they don't. Which isn't surprising, since for most of the high-end free agents, they can either meet expectations or fall short of expectations (sometimes well short). They're being paid so much for so long that there isn't much scope for outperforming their contract.

Fun ending to that game. That pretty much does Baltimore in.

ierjapan, the signing wasn't ridiculed by everyone. Yes,there was an overpay. Here's Jeff Sullivan.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-side-of-the-chris-davis-contract/

The FO may not have brought up enough kids in September, but they certainly seem to have made the right call on who they brought up.

Hernandez has had consistently good ABs (regardless of outcome) in the last 6-7 games.

Word.  He looks ready to me. 

There is quite a contrast between Urena and Hernandez in the general quality of their ABs notwithstanding the similar (positive) outcomes. Urena is showing a lot of positives but there is a huge swing and miss element in his game that needs to be worked on.

i was thinking hernandez looked more prone to the swinging misses.

It's easy to see that Urena throws harder and runs faster than Goins.
His bat is much quicker too.

It's harder to compare plate discipline and contact skills, but Goins sets the bar pretty low on offense.

No question that Urena needs to play everyday and will start the year in Buffalo.
He should come up when Tulo goes on the DL.
Can he play 2nd when Travis is on the shelf? At think he'll get a look, but maybe not this month.

Urena has looked very good and bad to me. He has hit some good pitches and when he connects he has made some very solid contact.

But then he would have an at-bat where he looks over-matched. Overall I have a positive impression and I had some doubts after this last season in AA but he has looked better than I thought he would with the Jays.

I think this experience will be good for him. I do think he needs to go to Buffalo next season.

Before tonights game, Urena had a slightly lower SwStr rate than Teoscar 11.9%/13.3%. Also a much lower Swing% on balls out of the strike zone 28.1%/35.9%.

Add in the fact he's more than 3 yrs younger than Teoscar.

It is very rare a free agent provides more value than what you pay for him. The Jays with Roger Clemens won the lottery (2 Cy's, 2 pitching triple crowns, before he demanded a trade which brought in Wells who was good for a year and could've been traded for something useful if we had a good GM back then who actual checked if guys traded for were healthy). Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield also worked out very well. Others flopped like Dennis Lamp (was supposed to be the closer), Randy Myers, and others.

Basically what a team needs to do is be careful with high end free agents - fill a hole that your system won't fill on its own anytime soon when you are in contention or on the cusp of it. Right now unless it is someone who you can feel confident will be excellent in 2020 it would be a mistake to sign more than stopgap measures (ala Happ before last year). HOF locks (ala Clemens) tend to hold value better but often cost an arm and leg so if they get hurt you are screwed.

Really, this winter the big challenge is do you sign Donaldson long term or not, and if so for how much? He is entering his decline years and had a 'meh' year by his standards. This year will see his worst bWAR (among other stats) since his rookie season in 2012 after 4 years in a row of top 10 MVP finishes (3 in top 5). Of note though, even doing poor like that he still is over 3 and could reach 4 with a strong finish (unlikely at 3.3 right now, would take a killer finish to add 0.7 I'd expect). His most similar via BR is Mike Lowell who had 3 good years left after age 31 (10.7 WAR total). Based on FanGraphs this bad year for him is still worth $27+ mil so if he has 10 WAR left in the tank that would be worth roughly $90 million. Thus a 5 year $100 mil deal isn't unreasonable (see above about how you expect to lose a bit on free agents). I expect he won't take less than 5 years $125 mil though which would require about 14 WAR over the 5 years which he could easily do if healthy. Lots to debate there even before factoring in Vlad who could be ready to play everyday as soon as 2019.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/welcome-back-brandon-morrow/

Brandon morrow is doing well out of the pen for the dodgers. Not sure how many are aware, was news to me.

Hypobole, that's for sure an interesting article, but if that's the best defense out there for the Chris Davis signing, it kind of proves my point, no?

Super stoked to see Morrow getting some results.  Dustin McGowan and Miguel Castro also re-surfaced this year, Adam Lind was used appropriately and did well as a result, and someone just posted that the immortal Deck McGuire made the bigs.  It's always nice to see the ex Jays making good. 

decided to look the milb nunbers up:

Urena

21yrs (AA/MLB): 11.6swstr%, 18.7k%
20yrs (A+/AA): 11.6swstr%, 14.7k%
19yrs (A/A+): 27.7swstr%, 20.5k%
18yrs (Rk/A-): 28.1swstr%, 20.4k%

Hernandez

24yrs (AAA/MLB): 13.8swstr%, 22.3k%
23yrs (AA/AAA/MLB): 10.8swstr%, 18.1k%
22yrs (AA): 14.7swstr%, 24.5k%
21yrs (A+/AA): 25.8swstr%, 27.7k%
20yrs (A): 29.9swstr%, 23.9k%
19yrs (Rk/A): 31.5swstr%, 28.7k%


So yeah there's more swing and miss in Teoscar's game...but then again he's consistently shown more power, too.

But both have improved dramatically in this area since they were teenagers.

It may or may not be the best defense, just the 1st article I checked. It does prove your point about retaining the hometown talent. I didn't see ridicule though.

As to your point, if we resign Donaldson,would that qualify as retaining hometown talent rather than improving the team?

"Big-money FA signings sometimes do work out, but often they don't. Which isn't surprising, since for most of the high-end free agents, they can either meet expectations or fall short of expectations (sometimes well short). They're being paid so much for so long that there isn't much scope for outperforming their contract."

That's still being generous. They almost all terrible. Out of the biggest contracts ever, you can pick a few that were good value, a few that may be OK and the vast vast majority are albatrosses or soon will be. Teams almost always pay for peak performance to players who will certainly decline which is why free agency is not an efficient or realistic way to build your club. Go back 2 years ago and there were 7 contracts of over 100M. Price, Grienke, Heyward, Davis, Upton, Cueto, and Zimmerman. That's sort of typical outcome for big name free agents. One or two signings might work out OK (Upton if he opts out, Grienke if Arizona wins or he maintains this for a couple more years) and the rest range from probably terrible to definitely terrible and that is 2 years into the contract.

I think that with most big free agent signings happening at the end or just past the players prime, it often seems their production goes down as they age. Add in that sometimes the player goes to a different league and also that a few players may try too hard to justify the big money and show their worth to their new team mates.

With some exceptions, I think the key is to focus on players in their age-22 to age-33 seasons. That's when you get the best performance, health, and overall value per dollar of payroll. For this reason, I would not sign Donaldson to a large contract for the next five to seven years.

Word.  He looks ready to me.

He's 24 years old, had more than 40 games in the majors before the Jays traded for him, and has spent a fair amount of time at AAA over the past couple years. He should be ready. He's probably ready as he's going to be.

For this reason, I would not sign Donaldson to a large contract for the next five to seven years.

I would also not sign him long term. If he were 27 it'd be a different story. I'd be okay with extending Donaldson this off season for maybe 4 years, but I doubt he'd go for that.

it often seems their production goes down as they age

Yep. The typical FA contract pays a guy in his 30's for what he did in his 20's. Not a great model. The Pujols contract is a perfect example. A team naively believes that this guy will age differently, because he is a star. As if Father Time plays favourites.

I'm honestly a little surprised at the number of "I wouldn't extend Donaldson" comments here.  If that's the case, you may as well trade him this offseason, no?  And if that's the case, you may as well reset the organization and plan on a year or two off from contention.

I think they have to at least try to extend Josh.  I'd probably do it this fall, see where he's at.  If he's willing to talk an extension this winter, you can decide your organizational approach.  If Josh says he's going to take highest dollar value in winter 2018, you have a hard decision to make.

I just don't get the "I wouldn't even bother to try to extend Donaldson" or "I'd only lowball him with an offer he'd never take".  Seems as if a lot of people really didn't like that approach that was apparently taken in winter 2015 with one gentleman named: Price, David.

Hernandez has more power, but Urena has lots of doubles this year, so he might still develop more power.
What's the most homeruns by a Blue Jays shortstop? (The Jays have never won a sliver slugger at short.)

This idea that most teams have 3 or 4 mlb-quality kids in AAA just biding their time is a silly fiction.

Biagini, Borucki, Pannone, Rowley, maybe Santos.

I guess nobody has really figured out baseball yet.

We added a few key FAs in 92 & 93. 92 ... Winfield & Morris. They produced and added a lot of spirit to the team. 92 had a great pitching staff. Then they made it better.

93 ... Molitor. He became a part of WAMCO, IMO an elite group of hitters. Add in Tony Fernandez. Tony proved something to me. He was human, and as such seemed overjoyed to be back home in Toronto.

Getting a WS/championship ring is personally very important. Some players came to TO for that opportunity.

Troy Tulowitzki hit 23 HR as a shortstop last season. That's the Jays record. Alex Gonzalez with 17 in 2010 is second best.

"....Biagini, Borucki, Pannone, Rowley, maybe Santos....."

Yes.  And the point being made by Atkins and Shapiro is that these guys are optionable and have future growth potential.  This is better than the recent 6th starters and 7th starters in the past couple years who have mostly been veterans without any real growth potential and without any option years remaining.  Those veterans were either not very good or -- if they were good -- could easily be lost on waivers. 

I don't see how anyone could dispute that it's better to have Borucki and Rowley available in Buffalo instead of marginal veterans such as House, Tepesch, Latos, Bolsinger, Oberholtzer etc.

As for the Front Office desire for "waves of dominating players" -- that's clearly just rhetoric, and an expression of a long-term objective, not a realistic assessment of what's possible for minor-league depth.  Nobody expects them to step into the majors and immediately become as good as the average mid-rotation pitcher. But they have a better chance of it than a marginal veteran from the scrap-heap.

I guess nobody has really figured out baseball yet.

You cited a number of old FA signed by the Jays in their better days. In all cases, those were justifiable signings: short-term commitments to older players meant to complement a strong core. If they didn't pan out, it wasn't a blow to the budget or the team's plans.

This is vastly different than making expensive, long-term commitments to would-be organizational center pieces, counting on high-level performances from a player's mid and late 30's.

Donaldson doesn't have to be worth his long term contract, or any big free agent for that matter.  The team just has to win while he's still a main contributing player for it to be worth it imo.

Say he signs a 6x =162 contract and he's MVP of the 2020 season, Jays are WS champs but he becomes a replacement level player after that, most people won't complain because they needed him to win it all.  It's the same logic to selling the farm for a rental.  By overpaying in either dollars or players you get satisfaction now and pay for it later.  I would assume many teams feel like this because when you look at most big free agent contracts on strictly that players production they mostly don't work out from a WAR/$ or whatever number figure you want to go by.  Most GM's probably won't even be around when they sign players to 7-10 year contracts, and if they are they obviously did something right to avoid being fired, so either it's not going to be their problem or they built up enough good will that a terrible contract is not the end of the world. 

Didn't Tony Batista hit 26 HR playing SS for the Jays in 1999?

If that's the case, you may as well trade him this offseason, no?

Yes.

And if that's the case, you may as well reset the organization and plan on a year or two off from contention.

Yep. I'd be fine if that's what they were going to do.

The argument about "free agent value" always misses the point that value isn't the ultimate goal of a baseball team.

As for re-signing Donaldson - for me it was having a cheap Donaldson in his prime that was one of the biggest reasons we should have pulled out the stops to try and win last year, this year, and next year. If we had done that, trading him next year would have been much more palatable, win or lose.

Without looking my memory was that Batista was the record as well. But it's possible that he was used at 3b that year and it diluted his "SS total"

It's whether you win, not how you win.

I checked. 98 games at SS for Batista in 99. He only played SS that season including ARZ. It's a legit record.
I was going to comment about it too, but saw 2 of you had gotten there first.

Luke Maile had a nice game back there.  As usual, the pitcher threw more strikes and had more success by far than with any of the other backup catchers. And he chipped in (as he very occasionally does) with the bat.  Scoring from first on a double is also something that several of the Blue Jay regulars have not done all season.  Headline for the game:

"Manny Machado mishandles much-maligned Maile's mash"

Perhaps not.

"Nobody expects them to step into the majors and immediately become as good as the average mid-rotation pitcher. But they have a better chance of it than a marginal veteran from the scrap-heap."

I don’t think that's true. And if it is in particular cases, then that pitcher should likely be in the mlb rotation already, not spinning wheels in AAA.

Well, let's talk about Joe Biagini then.  In the starting role this year, he's thrown 75 innings in 15 starts (he was on a low pitch count in his first 4 starts, so it's not exactly representative of his ability to go deep into games).  He has an ERA of 5.40, FIP of 3.95 and xFIP of 4.03.  In his career in the pen, he has an ERA of 3.44, a FIP of 3.29 and an xFIP of 3.79.  In other words, he has a typical small but noticeable loss of effectiveness when moved from pen to rotation. 

Would you expect him to perform better than a retread?  Of course.  Now maybe you have five better options for the rotation at the beginning of 2018, but do you need to struggle to achieve that?  Nope. 

The argument about "free agent value" always misses the point that value isn't the ultimate goal of a baseball team.

I agree with this. The goal isn't to maximize WAR/$.

I think many weighing in on whether to sign Donaldson are not terribly concerned about Rogers' coffers, and the likelihood that Rogers won't get full value out of a 38-year old Donaldson. This is not worry on poor Rogers' behalf.

Rather, it is the understanding that Rogers is only going to spend so much. Spending on A means NOT spending on B, so we attempt to weigh the trade-off. (The argument on how much Rogers should spend is tangential, and separate, and in a less penny-pinching world, spending on A would not preclude also spending on B.)

The "flags fly forever" argument does tacitly acknowledge that the increased value of short-term performance (i.e., the chance for a championship) can serve to mitigate the long-term costs of a contract, both financially (because of increased short-term revenue) and for brand value. And that would be an argument to sign Donaldson long-term.

The argument against signing Donaldson long-term is that the team remains middling in the short-term, during Donaldson's strong years, and only becomes competitive a few years hence, once Donaldson is in decline. And during his expensive decline years, those sunk salary dollars preclude other spending.

but Mike, Biagini is a 27yr old we picked up off waivers.

not a prospect we developed.

"Rather, it is the understanding that Rogers is only going to spend so much. Spending on A means NOT spending on B, so we attempt to weigh the trade-off."

and there's the rub.

when we say we won't sign Donaldson, does that mean we're spreading that money on more moraleses and pearces every year instead?

who exactly are we saving that money for?

"who exactly are we saving that money for?"

Thats the 50 million dollar question, isn't it.

but Mike, Biagini is a 27yr old we picked up off waivers.

Close.  He was a Rule 5 pick.  It's not quite the same thing.  He was a starter in Double A at age 24/25 who put up a 2.42 ERA, but who the Giants did not protect.  He was not headed for the waiver wire had he not been chosen.

The Indians' streak is, of course, remarkable.  You would have thought that with Kluber pitching last night and a chance to tie the record for consecutive wins, they would have been able to draw more than 24,000 fans.  It sure marks a change for Edwin. 

Edwin has hit .283/.419/.567 during the winning streak with 13 BB and 9 K, and taken the parrot for a jog 5 times. The Indians have a +102 run differential over the 20 games, the best over that span since the 1938 Yankees. What a remarkable run.

Yes, Batista is correct. I missed it because he played for 2 teams that year. Sorry.

To piggyback off this: Cleveland has hit 39 home runs, and have allowed 32 runs over the stretch.

"....Biagini, Borucki, Pannone, Rowley, maybe Santos....."

I doubt either Santos or Rowley fit the criteria the FO is setting out here, and with Pannone and Borucki in the fold, no need to have Biagini in AAA. 

I'll take the wildcards that are Rowley and Santos over the predictable mediocrity of House et al though.  I had feared that Anderson fit into that AAAA category too, but he's got that Buehrle vibe about him, despite the pedestrian stuff. 

Shame the Indians can't draw more with what I consider to be a really exciting team.

Here's hoping that they can get to 21 and wipe the most overrated team ever from the record books.

The Indians could afford Encarnacion because they don't have other (unproductive) $20m players like Martin and Tulo on the roster.

"...the criteria the FO is setting out here..."

The only criteria that the FO has mentioned is "optionable."  Santos and Rowley certainly fit that criteria.  "Optionable" also implies that they probably haven't reached their ceiling (unlike the waiver-claim veterans). 

"...no need to have Biagini in AAA...."

I don't think anyone can know that yet.  If Sanchez and Estrada and Anderson are all back on the roster and healthy at the start of the season (or if the Jays acquire another starting pitcher), and if the bullpen continues to be as strong as it looks right now, Biagini might be best placed in the Buffalo rotation.  It doesn't depend on the other pitching prospects; it depends on the state of the Toronto pitching staff. 

Of course, if Biagini is able to pitch as consistently well as he did last night, he'll be in the Toronto rotation.

"The Indians could afford Encarnacion because they don't have other (unproductive) $20m players like Martin and Tulo on the roster."

Not only could the Jays afford Encarnacion right now regardless....

...but it's the the $34m for -1.2avgwar from Bautista/Morales/Pearce that stopped us from getting Encarnacion, not Tulo/Martin's $40m for +1.8avgwar.

China, I referred to a Shapiro interview in the context of the Atkins comments above - I think it is clear that they want dominating prospects: " four or five prospect starter types at Triple-A, and they’re all dominating the competition".

I like the guy, but Rowley certainly doesn't fit as either a prospect or a dominant pitcher.  But here is something from Stoeten's piece on Atkins last interview that I found interesting about Santos. 

"He’s been Bobby Meacham’s radar, he’s been on Gil Kim’s radar, Steamer down in Triple-A — these guys have been talking about him all year, and he’s come up a ton over the course of the year."

This is genuine news to me and bodes very well for Santos - I've been calling him a non-prospect in the right place at the right time, but clearly the org sees more in him. 

I will likely never agree with people who think we may be better off with Biagini in Buffalo.   that's the second recent start that made me think he's a legit candidate for our rotation next year, so hopefully it's a moot point. 

"...but it's the the $34m for -1.2avgwar from Bautista/Morales/Pearce that stopped us from getting Encarnacion, not Tulo/Martin's $40m for +1.8avgwar."

What? Those contracts weren't even signed when they pulled the offer to Edwin. Morales was close, but I'm pretty sure the self-imposed deadline for Edwin to accept their offer had passed.

I am also one who believes the front office didn't want either Edwin or Jose back last year. But I also think it's very plausible that having three or four more years of expensive, declining players under contract made them less willing to add more of the same. It's not like Edwin's 28.

"....dominating the competition..."

I think you're misreading this comment.  It doesn't mean that they have to be hot-shot prospects with overpowering 98 mph stuff and a ranking in the MLB's top 50 prospects.  It only means that they should (ideally) be dominating the hitters and getting them out. 

Rowley recorded an ERA of 2.24 and a WHIP of 1.02 across 116 innings at the AA and AAA levels this season.  He held the opposition to a .218 average.  He had 95 strikeouts, versus only 26 walks.  This after missing two seasons and returning to action only last season. He might not be a top-50 prospect, but he can probably serve as the 7th or 8th starter next season, ready to be promoted if there are two or three injuries to the regulars. And he is optionable. In other words, I think he fits the criteria. 

Moreover, as you acknowledge in the Santos case, the key question is not necessarily what we see from the stats -- it's how the Jays perceive him.  We don't know how they perceive him, and I doubt they rank him as highly as Borucki or Santos, but the fact that he was promoted to the majors in August, and is on the major-league roster, does tell us something about how the Jays see him.

Finally, I am still surprised that a word like "dominating" (in Front Office rhetoric) would be interpreted as literally as some are interpreting it.  It's clearly a goal, not a criteria.  They are aiming high.  Good for them.

It just kills me that this FO talks so much about depth and yet their team has by far the worst depth of any jays team in recent memory.

The Stoeten article mentioned by Jerjapan (based on interview) on Atkins and player development is really excellent. I suggest that it be read by all:

https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/09/12/atkins-speaks-on-the-bullpen-depth-the-future-and-more-philosophical-interpretations-through-the-anthopoulos-prism/

I may be misreading this China, but I'm not even sure it's a goal - I think it's corporate rhetoric with a goal of managing fan expectations.  I certainly don't take Shapiro literally here, but I do find corporate speak to be frustrating. 

Rowley may be perceived more favourably than I know, but he doesn't even seem to be a top thirty guy in our own org.  One more year like this and I'll buy into him, but at this time last year Chris and Murphy Smith were also posting similar numbers in AAA with similar longshot background stories.  Both clearly regressed this season. 

Rowley still works as a 7th or 8th starter IMO, and I agree that options / team control are critical for the fringier arms in Buffalo.  That's one of the reasons I'm down on Loup. 

pretty sure Loup still has an option left.

uo, it has nothing to do with the fact AA traded a lot of that depth to make postseason runs?

I don't understand options perfectly, but according to this, Loup is out of them.

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/pages/blue-jays-option-and-outright-status

Both the Anthopoulus and the Shapiro FOs deserve blame for our lack of depth.   AA definitely cost us our upper level pitching depth in terms of prospects.   I feel that he did a better job adding fringe guys like Schultz or Cola who were briefly useful (although Dominic Leone was a great find). 

The middle IF situation this year is entirely on Shapiro and Atkins. 

Loup has an option left but he can decline it due to service time. In the interview, Atkins praises all the bullpen members but does not mention Loup. He also talks about how Dermody and Mayza have progressed. My take after reading his words is that Loup is not in the 2018 plans. There will be a 40 man crunch so that would be a move to try and hold onto younger assets.

It seemed as if he was almost guaranteeing a spot to Santos which could call Koehler's employment into question. Perhaps the Jays are trying to showcase the latter as a reliever to try and deal him?

does it?

I dunno, which of those traded kids would be better depth for us now?

There are many GMs out there who are able to get good depth for cheap, without relying on prospects to carry the load.

The one player development strength the Jays org seemed to have in AA's tenure was the pitching side. Just because guys like Norris, Hoffman, Castro etc didn't develop in other orgs doesn't mean they wouldn't have taken a different trajectory in the Jays org.

Russell Martin catches tonight, but no other changes from last night's lineup. 

Here is a new assessment by John Sickels suggesting that Urena could eventually end up with a similar batting average to Tony Fernandez in the majors:

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/9/13/16256792/blue-jays-rookie-richard-urena-hot-in-september

His concluding paragraphs:

On the right day Urena certainly looks like a guy who can hit .300: there’s quickness in his bat and good gap power. His plate discipline is erratic, however, and he didn’t exactly set the Eastern League on fire. Strong September aside, he likely needs a year of Triple-A to polish the bat.
Defensively, Urena should be able to remain at shortstop. He has the physical tools for the position and has reduced his error rate, improving his reliability on routine plays this season.
Urena is still only 21 years old. I don’t think he is quite ready to perform at his current pace over a full major league season, but give him a couple more years and he should be a solid regular option.

So, how do the Jays get rid of Tulo. I see Troy as the right choice for 2018 but after that..............?

I don't find the Tony Fernandez comparison helpful at all.  Fernandez had exceptional contact ability as well as very good speed and some life in the bat.  All the way up through the minors (at a very young age), he walked more than he struck out and sometimes walked twice as often as he struck out. And of course, Fernandez was an excellent defender from the time of arrival in the big leagues. 

The player who Urena reminds me of is Juan Uribe, both in terms of body type and offensive strengths and weaknesses.  At age 21, Uribe hit .256/.314/.410 with 38 walks and 100 strikeouts in mostly high A ball.  He struck out about 3 times as often as he walked for most of his major league career.  He had his best sustained period of performance as a third baseman for the Dodgers in his mid 30s. 

Please have a look at the link that I provided. As the Sickels article makes quite explicitly clear, Sickels is not making an overall comparison between Urena and Fernandez. He is talking specifically about batting average, not OBP.

I read the article before commenting.  I like John Sickels, but I disagreed with him about Urena and found the use of Fernandez as a marking point to be completely unhelpful.  He might as well have chosen Cal Ripken Jr. 

Sickels compared Urena to Fernandez as a hitter pre-season, but in the article admitted the comp doesn't really work other than BA.

Sickels says Urena can hit .300 and is good enough defensively to stick at shortstop. That's a pretty positive assessment, even if it contradicts the conventional wisdom around these parts.

I haven't read the article, but I find comparisons of Urena to Fernandez even in BA only bewildering.

I don't recall these parts claiming Urena can't stick at SS.

Keith Law with his "Prospects who lost the most ground in 2017", guys he rated Top 100 prior to the season. Brewers had a number of mentions, two guys he had Top 20 - Groome and Meadows, and last years #1 overall draft pick Moniak all disappointed. Plus one Jay


Sean Reid-Foley, Preseason rank: 72

The Blue Jays' second-round pick from 2014 had a breakout campaign last year in high-A Dunedin, but his first full year in Double-A was disastrous, as he stopped generating ground balls (down to 40.4 percent, the worst of his pro career) and became homer-prone (allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings, by far the highest of his career). His velocity was intact in the 92-95 mph range, but he's pitching up in the zone too often and hasn't had any natural sink to the fastball this year.

Hypobole, there's been several people suggesting here that Urena might not have the "focus" to be a good major-league shortstop, and that he makes too many "lapses."

Personally I think it's too early to be reaching a conclusion about his defence. I think he's already good, but he can get better. He does indeed make occasional lapses, but I don't see evidence that it's worse than others of his age.

I like Urena's chances of hitting .260/.315/.400 and playing a pretty good shortstop in a few years.

Hypobole, there's been several people suggesting here that Urena might not have the "focus" to be a good major-league shortstop.

Could you find those comments? I can't. Mike brought up focus, but no mention of not being a SS, the discussion was whether he should start in NH or Buffalo.

As for "focus" issues, that Donaldson guy seems to them tonight.

I think there were a couple of concurring responses re Urena focus after the original comment.
Not seeing any of the plays I can't comment. I think these are errors that players grow out of or don't, and at 21 Urena is too young to write off as unfocused. He made fewer errors this year - his highest fielding % which is where focus tends to show up. I consider that a positive.

I'd look at guys like crawford desmond asdrubel as potential comps for urena.

Mike, I'm generally with you on Urena (even the Uribe comp); however, I don't see the BB% to support that line. I could see a higher BA to support that kind of line. I see Kevin Pillar's career line as a reasonable comp for Urena's future offensive upside. Like Pillar, add in good defence and some base running value and you have yourself a very useful player.

pillar seems a little low of a bar. urena is just so far ahead of where he was at the same point.

hell, pillar hadn't even been drafted yet at urena's age. didn't make AA until 24.

Very hard to know with Urena because he is still so young but has had bad numbers in the minors above A ball in a significant number of ABs.(.286 OBP in AA does not often translate well to the majors) He has a wide range of outcomes with the highest one IMO being a utility guy. He needs to take a leap forward next year in AAA but he is young enough to be able to do that. There are lots of middle infielders with this profile so tons of decent comps.

"As for the Front Office desire for "waves of dominating players" -- that's clearly just rhetoric, and an expression of a long-term objective, not a realistic assessment of what's possible for minor-league depth."

I don't think "waves" is just rhetoric. I think it is the plan of a successful organization. You need players coming up every single year. Look at the Red Sox in the last five years. They have brought up Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benitendi, Shaw, Devers, Iglasias, Vazquez, Rodriguez, and a few other bit parts. Yes, they had busts like Swihart as well which will always happen. They also traded their prospects for Sale, Kimbrel, and Pomeranz. The Yankees had Sanchez come up two years ago, Judge come up this year and have 3 top-50 prospects all close to the majors. They also have brought up Betances, Frazier, Greene, Bird, and used prospects to trade for Sonny Gray.The Astros have brought up Correa, Springer, Bregman, McHugh, McCullers, Devenski, and traded prospects for Gattis and Giles. The Cubs have brought up Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Baez, Contreras, Happ, Almora, Hendricks, and used prospects to trade for Chapman, Quintana, and more. You need to have potential impact prospects coming up every single year.

When this front office took over, the Jays had no prospects within 2-3 years of the majors. The upper minors were the worst in all of baseball. They had no good young major league hitters and 3 good young pitchers. They had almost no major league tradable assets and very few minor league assets with much value (Teams like prospects close to the majors). Mid-season last year, baseball America had no Jays top prospects in the top-80 in baseball. So even those people who wanted to "go for it", go for it with what? Trading Alford and Vlad for a rental or two to try to hold on to a declining core for one more year? That's how you destroy a franchise.

Teams like the Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees have the prospect capital to make moves like that. The Jays used all their prospect capital to go for it in 2013 and then in 2015. If you go all-in on every hand, you will eventually run out of chips.

Good point Glevin. The Astros were flirting with .700 ball. Now they are 2nd best in the AL.

They made the Liriano trade when in 1st place. That seems the way to go, when you are going for it.

The Jays 2013 and 2015 trades were made when the team was not even close to .600 ball let alone .700.

"I don't think "waves" is just rhetoric. I think it is the plan of a successful organization."

It is also the plan of unsuccessful organizations. It is the plan of every organization. It doesn't mean anything.

The easiest thing a GM can do is buy the best scouting staff as he can and then just sit and wait for years and years for the kids to hopefully develop.

That's not actually a plan, though.

Of course you can win the WS with the 2nd WC. This year IMO everyone was in it except Oakland. The CWS would be a lot better without their off season fire sale. If they got the 2nd WC, they could ride C Sale to the WS championship. An ace IMO always does it ... MadBum.

I believe Stroman, Sanchez are capable. Estrada did well in the last 2 years also.

"The easiest thing a GM can do is buy the best scouting staff as he can and then just sit and wait for years and years for the kids to hopefully develop."

Sounds a lot like AA's plan (that apparently wasn't actually a plan)

Building through the minors via top notch scouting and the like is part 1 of a plan. Part 2 is giving those kids a chance and trying to line it up so multiple kids will be in the majors at their peaks and still be cheap. Part 3 is adding free agents and/or trades to fill in any holes to complete the package and go deep in the playoffs.

AA did part 3 a bit early (2013) which cost the Jays Noah Syndergaard. However, Noah only got 5 starts this year so it wouldn't have made a big difference in 2017 anyways. It was a case of a unique opportunity - a team wanted to trade away the Cy Young winner and another team was doing a fire sale.

The current GM/President team seems more patient in some respects, but also less willing to say 'screw it' to a year. They want a contender for the 2nd WC every year but also to hold prospects so you can have a cheap good team in a few more years. If it was still AA running the team with Beeston as President I'd expect a big Marlins trade (again) and maybe another trade or two to fix the issues (2B/SS/LF/RF/CA/DH/rotation). Instead what I expect is minor trades and free agents to fill holes to make 2018 a semi-building year as the big kids (Vlad/Bo) go through AA/AAA. Hopefully another young arm shows up as kids can suddenly develop out of nowhere.

Several years ago (or was it 10?) Robert Dudek suggested a measure of pitcher quality- dominance.  As I recall it, the measure compared baserunners allowed with strikeouts.  Carlos Ramirez has been a poster boy for dominating the opposition all season.  He has faced 170 batters in double A, triple A and in the major leagues, allowed 17 hits- no home runs, walked 12, hit 2, and struck out 54.  I don't recall how the dominance stat was calculated, but I am pretty sure that Ramirez would be high up on the list of Blue Jay farmhands. 

We do not have detailed ball in play data for the high minors, but it seems from his major league work that he has been adept not only at striking out batters but also at inducing weak contact.  Of course, he's been a little lucky too. 

Have to be good to be lucky or so they say. I have been very impressed with Ramirez. I was going to say that I liked his composure but perhaps that has not really been sufficiently tested.

I'm a big fan of Carlos Ramirez and was excited to see him in the show - A little disappointed with his repertoire - it seems deception is a big part of his success and he seems unflappable on the mound - I'm interested to see how he reacts to a bit of adversity. In answer to a question on fangraphs this week, Eric Longenhagen called him a likely fringe middle relief option unless the funky delivery plays up. I would not mind if he started next year in Buffalo, to refine his game and be ready for a call up.

Eric Longenhagen called him a likely fringe middle relief option unless the funky delivery plays up

How do you know when it has played up?    Personally, I couldn't care less that his fastball doesn't crack 93 and his slider isn't a killer.  He's got excellent composure, very good control and a helluva lot of deception.  Many fine relievers have those qualities.  Every staff should have one. 

Dominance is a great idea for a stat.  It's certainly what I look for when I'm considering relief prospects.  I have a hard time thinking someone capable of a run like Ramirez has had being a 'fringe middle reliever'.  Nobody thought much of Danny Barnes until he started dominating hitters in an unprecedented fashion - I could see Ramirez having similar success. 

On the other hand, it's been one season of dominance after a career of not standing out at all. 

Except Barnes is exactly that middle reliever type FG referenced. His 60 IP have been worth all of 0.3 fWAR this year. Even the much maligned Loup has 0.5 fWAR.

Ramirez is the type of guy you want throwing one inning every other day. He's got 2 pitches and his effectiveness will likely dip once hitters get to face him several times. Can he do his things later in ballgames? Probably, but there's no reason to find out.

Barnes is a similar pitcher. He's got 2 pitches and he's working on a 3rd one to keep hitters from figuring him out.

It would be fascinating to see the results of crowdsourcing Anderson's next contract. He's pitched well enough that it's hard to imagine him not wanting to wait until after free agency opens to see what offers are out there.