Jose Bautista last hit a home run on August 11th. He hit six in July and August combined, that is an 18 HR pace.

His OPS was 566 in July and 582 in August.

I suggest more off days in September. You can't sit him too much, as a veteran he would get some respect among the coaches and in the clubhouse, but four to five games a week should be the maximum.

They may have to sit him to keep his average from dropping into the 190's.

Three games per week would be plenty for me. There's no need for Bautista and Pearce to play the corners at the same time, least of all behind a flyball pitcher.

Starting to look like little league ball.

The most disappointing part to me has been the poor defensive play over the last month.

Obviously Jose reads Da Box and wanted to prove me wrong.

It's pretty clear Joey Bats is done as a full time player, and I really want to see more Teoscar. However Bautista has earned the right to play out the season on a team not in contention and hopefully provide a few bright moments like that HR he just hit in Fenway.

I'm really tired of seeing a Barney and Goins middle infield. I don't really want to go into it more, but its just a depressing middle infield situation currently.

ah the buck red sox slobberfest drives me nuts.

apparently now beni-bogaerts is as good an up the middle defense as any in baseball.

just never mind the glaring defensive miscues tonight, or their lackluster defensive numbers in general.

... That makes me happy I forgot to put on the game. Maybe I should watch the Sox broadcast. It's just not the same without Orsillo, though.

I mean, it's not even the best up-the-middle defense on the team (JBJr & Marrero). Of course, I'd take Zimmer and Lindor or Hamilton and Cozart without blinking. And after looking things up, Herrera and Galvis is on the table as well. Or, oh god, Cain and Escobar. Man, that bat, tho...

It's pretty clear Joey Bats is done as a full time player, and I really want to see more Teoscar. However Bautista has earned the right to play out the season on a team not in contention and hopefully provide a few bright moments like that HR he just hit in Fenway.

While I generally agree with this, sitting Bautista more and playing Hernandez might have made a difference in a few games along the way and the team might still have a shot. Bautista may have earned the right to play, but at this point he's not helping the team. As a fan that's frustrating. It also diminishes the enjoyment of what Bautista has done for the franchise.

> Maybe I should watch the Sox broadcast.

I usually listen to the away broadcast.  Apart from the fact that I almost always prefer them to the Jay's crew anyway, I also enjoy hearing a variety of voices and styles as well as getting a range of different viewpoints on the Jays themselves.

"I'm really tired of seeing a Barney and Goins middle infield. I don't really want to go into it more, but its just a depressing middle infield situation currently."

For me, this is the worst of it as well. This is the 4th straight year where Goins has had at least 190 PAs for the Jays and it will be the second time in last three years where he will have at least 400 PAs which is crazy for someone who can't hit a lick. Barney is going to have back to back 300 PAs seasons. That's over 700 PAs for Goins and Barney which is ridiculous. The Jays need to act as if Travis and Tulowitzki are going to get hurt next year (which they likely will) and get someone who isn't awful to play there.

I'd be happy if outside of Donaldson/Smoak/Morales everyone just played on alternating days.
It looks to me like Morales is working on fighting the curveball.
I can't see the entire run, but when he hits a double, he must find another gear and get to first faster.
No need to put Refsnyder in the infield, so you got 3 guys for 2 position and a lot of outfielders.
Probably need to pinch hit an outfielder at least once a game, to get a platoon advantage.

The Red Sox are running a 12 man bullpen and a lot of them are awful.

"Jays need to act as if Travis and Tulowitzki are going to get hurt next year (which they likely will) and get someone who isn't awful to play there."

Which would mean 2 someones. And getting someone who can hit, like Eduardo Nunez, almost invariably means they are poor fielders, like Nunez, who's a bad 2nd baseman and a worse SS.
If you target someone who can hit and field, those guys are starters, not backups. So yeah, it is depressing.

If I have to choose between a poor hitting infielder or a poor defensive infielder for next season I would target the poor fielder and focus on using more shifts when that infielder is in the game.

At the very least get one good fielder and one good hitter, so we never end up with two horrible holes in the offence at one time. At this point though neither Goins nor Barney are even good fielders.

The funny thing is,this year Barney has been passable at SS but poor at 2nd, Goins has been bad at SS but passable at 2nd, so Gibby has constantly played Goins at SS and Barney at 2nd.

It really shouldn't be that hard to find two just-above replacement level players to back up shortstop, second base and third base.  You don't want to sign Cozart to a long-term deal.  There are players out there of the Sogard/Torreyes quality who can fill in and not cost you games.  Ryan Goins is a player like that, provided you don't play him at shortstop any more than occasionally and you don't play him against LHP any more than occasionally. 

When long-term injury strikes, you must obtain replacements.  In 2016, it was not necessary.  Travis had 430 PAs and Tulo 540 that year, and Barney was playing well.  In 2017, it was obviously necessary when Travis down on June 4.  The front office's failure to fill an obvious hole was glaring.

I don't know what advanced stat you're using to make that comment, hypobole, but Barney hasn't played enough SS to come to that conclusion. I do agree though that Goins is no longer a terrific defensive SS; his range has diminished and lately he seems to be shot-putting his throws to first.

"ah the buck red sox slobberfest drives me nuts."

You'd really enjoy the SOSH game threads, uglyone. Let's just say they have a decidedly different view of their young talent right now than our announcers and some posters here.

"but Barney hasn't played enough SS to come to that conclusion."

That's kind of my point. So it's not really a conclusion, but a small sample fact. Barney has only played 54 innings at SS this year, +1 DRS, +9.1 UZR/150. Plus by both measures last year as well in 180 innings.

Goins has 606 innings at SS this year, -5 DRS, -10.7 UZR/150. As you mentioned, Goins' diminished range has been the major factor in UZR decline, which was also the cause of his slight negative UZR last year.

yeah I may have lurked on 1 or 15 sosh game threads, 92-93. ;)

the hilarious thing about goins this year is that he's actually hitting ABOVE his career averages.

My guess would be that there just weren't any hard plays for Barney in his limited time at SS. During the weekend series vs. the Cubs on Saturday the game was tied late with a runner on second and the Cubs hit a groundball up the middle that was a tough play, but was fairly routine from the aspect of at least stopping it from going into the outfield and allowing the run to score. I can hear my college coach yelling "ON YOUR BELLIES" before the play, reminding the infielders how important it was to not let the ball get into the outfield. Barney got his glove on it but deflected it away from Refsnyder even having a chance, and the Cubs took the lead they wouldn't relinquish. I remember it vividly because I was there watching the Jays get swept. My issue with your "small sample fact" is when you bring Gibby into it to denigrate him.

It's always good to guess and make assumptions off one play. What was your college coach yelling when Goins let one go through his wickets the other day? Yeah Goins screwed up that one time, but that doesn't make him Jose Reyes with the glove either.

As for denigrating Gibby, I rarely criticise him, definitely compared to most around here. Yeah, I don't agree with Gibby on this, but I also understand it's more a statement as to the type of manager he is - i.e. a "who brung him to the dance" type. Goins played some very good SS in years past, so Goins is his primary option, just like Bautista and his struggles still merit regular duty in RF. Some of us may disagree, but I'll guess almost all his players appreciate the loyalty he shows.

The front office's failure to fill an obvious hole was glaring.

100% agreed Mike.  This was the most frustrating part of the season to me, watching Barney and Goins struggle day after day.  Brandon Phillips was just dealt for a 29 year old backup catcher with 144 career big league ABs, and he's been worth 1.5 fWAR this year with positive grades for his D.  The Braves even threw cash into the deal.  Upgrades to the middle IF were available for essentially free. 

This interview with Shapiro has a couple of interesting comments.  I still don't really trust anything he (or most GMs, for that matter) says about the team on the field, but his management style is one I can get behind 100%.  Likely the best feather in his cap is the number of talented GMs across the league who have worked under him at some point. 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/251193324/mark-shapiro-on-blue-jays-donaldson-indians/

One play, or an entire career of Barney not being an MLB SS? This has nothing to do with loyalty, but about putting the team in the best position to succeed. You must know better than Piniella, Quade, Sveum, Renteria, and Gibbons, all of whom did not consider Barney to be a SS and chose to play another guy with a negative DRS there instead.

The FO hasn't seriously been focussing on winning these first 2 seasons. I think we can all acknowledge that, whether we agree with the decision or not. Being frustrated with their lack of urgency in making in season moves just kind of misses the point, really.

The defensive numbers all love Barney whether he played 2B, SS, or 3B.

I wonder if the Jays are done with September call ups?

At this point Im most jealous of the Cardinals for finding Jedd Gyorko. He is the exact type of player this franchise currently needs. In the past two seasons he's played over 370+ innings at 2nd, 100+ innings at 1st, 1000+ innings at 3rd and 200+ innings at short with 110 wrc+.

I wonder if the FO thought Lourdes Gurriel was going to be their super utility infielder, and I wonder if they still do think that for next season.

I am curious.  Is there any downside to calling up Alford?  I can't think of any, but there might be something. 

For what it's worth, BaseRuns, with SoS adjustments, suggests that the top 4 teams in baseball are Cleveland, LAD, Houston and NYY.  The four teams are pretty tightly packed.  I wonder if the Yankees can catch the Red Sox; it wouldn't shock me if they do. 

yeah but I think the yanks were hitting way over their heads in the first half so their baseruns might be thinking they are better than they actually are.

i loved smashing the Sox last night but it's also pretty depressing seeing how beatable these teams ahead of us are. Can't help but think we missed an opportunity here.

so much for the Man in White.


you know, I thought there was something fishy about Boston's team-wide hitting last year, especially in fenway.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html?referer=https://t.co/B75ER11XaB?amp=1

"Investigators for Major League Baseball have determined that the Boston Red Sox, who are in first place in the American League East and likely headed to the playoffs, executed a scheme to illicitly steal hand signals from opponents’ catchers in games against the second-place Yankees and other teams, according to several people briefed on the matter."

"The Red Sox told league investigators said that team personnel scanning instant- replay video were electronically sending the pitch signs to the trainers, who were then passing the information to the players."

The way this discussion is going, finding a player that can hit without the best defense for 2B is easy...Steve Pearce. We have enough outfielders to move him there for next year. If Maddon could do it in TB and Showalter in Baltimore then there's no reason we can't. On the radio today Buck makes it sound like Urena is a special player that will somehow magically hit well at MLB with his "quick bat speed." I haven't seen him play...what do Bauxites say? Is he more Hechavarria or more Jose Ramirez...thata honestly who Buck likened him to. Of course, none of us should take what Buck says seriously, but seriously, what's the read on this kid, especially with Guerriel and Bo on the way in the next 12 -16 months.

The FO hasn't seriously been focussing on winning these first 2 seasons.

Nah, I do not agree with you here at all Ugly.  I just think they define the best route to winning in an oddly frustrating way.  I don't think they failed to upgrade 2nd due to a lack of commitment to winning - they just overvalue vets like Goins and Barney. 

Zero downside to calling up Alford.   Some real downside to not calling him up - the kid needs his reps given the injuries he's dealt with.  And he'd certainly be a nice pinch runner / defensive upgrade for us if we are seriously trying to play the spoiler role. 

Jose Ramirez?  Not so far.  Ramirez walked as much as he struck out in A ball and double A when he was Urena's age.  He didn't have the power yet, so they share that.

Could Urena take a step forward and be a valuable contributor on both sides of the ball? Of course.  He just hasn't done it in the high minors yet and he has a lot to work on. 

The Jays need to target Tony Kemp as a trade acquisition this offseason...

Urena has had 6 PA so far, 3 of which have been walks, but what stood out for Buck must've been the 10 pitch AB Urena had vs. Miguel Castro. He seemed to have no issue fighting off Castro's impressive heat (why did the Orioles get him for nothing?), and won his first MLB AB with an opposite field double. On the defensive side he's looked comfortable making all the routine plays, and just missed a tough hot shot to his left when he was playing SS. In case they were thinking about paying Barney a few million as depth insurance, Urena is making his case that it's not necessary. He's a lot bigger than I expected.

Tony Kemp would be a cool idea Mark.

yeah urena and hernandez are not skinny finesse guys, that's fornsure. both have powerful frames.

urena probably isn't ready but when you've been fed years of the ryan goins he looks refreshingly good out there.

urena, the apparently questionable defensive SS prospect already looks better defensively than defensive whiz goins. and he can't be worse defensively.

And you're basing this on the 2 completely routine plays Urena has had tonight? Come on.

There have been 507 MLB hitters with at least 50 PA. In terms of WAR:

Ryan Goins #485
Luke Maile #488
Darwin Barney #499

These three guys have been three of the top 22 worst position players in baseball this year.

well that wasn't routine. and this isn't the only game i've seen him.

Now that was a very good play by Urena to get Betts.

My imagination or would Donaldson have had a shot at Betts who was a far piece off second base? Not sure why he even cared about Benintendi.

I've had more than enough of Osuna for this year. Time to shut him down for his own good.

Gibbons and Hale appear to be the only people who don't realize that Osuna is broken (temporarily or otherwise).

Chuck, you're right that the correct play was to look Betts back as Benintendi's run was meaningless. I give Donaldson some latitude on that play as the runner scoring was happening right in his line of vision. But your baseline point is correct. From the time you start playing organized baseball you are taught to focus on Betts in that situation.

The team will have to consider either shutting Osuna down or greatly limiting his appearances for the rest of the season. Whether this is due to injury, fatigue, mental, whatever, it doesn't appear that running him out there is helping, and the rest of this season is meaningless anyway. Regardless, Osuna's blown saves are annoying because he allows the game to be tied instead of ending the misery, so now the team will have to continue to overwork relievers that have been overworked all season (due to SP failure, among other things).

it doesn't appear that running [Osuna] out there is helping,

It's certainly not helping the ball club. Since the ASB he's 1-4, 6.00 with 7 BS in 20 SV Opps.

Just like players, managers can have bad years or go into slumps.

Well, they have extra starters who should be able to handle the extra innings and they could call more if they wanted to, namely Campos and Borucki.

I don't know about Osuna. The only bad thing about letting him work it out in play is the wins he's stealing from starters. Now, I don't know if he's actually working on anything. He seems to be throwing more and more cutters, his fastball is sitting 95-96mph--he used to touch 97mph every outing--but he's also having control issues.
Maybe they're waiting on Sanchez to join the pen. He wouldn't close, but he could setup or throw the 7th.

Regarding the middle infield, I agree that the FO deserves criticism on having Goins being such a big part of the team. Travis had been injured two years in a row (three if you count Detroit), and Tulo comes with a long list of injuries during his career. The back-up infielder was surely going to get a lot of playing time, and sticking with Goins when he has proven time and time again that he is a detriment to the team in terms of value was avoidable. Barney was at least coming off a good season off the bench, so it was understandable to stick with him for another year.

They can't possibly go into 2018 expecting Travis and Tulo to stay healthy. I don't know who they can acquire, but they will need someone. Howie Kendrick can cover 2B and LF, so he'd fit in. If the Cubs wanted to dump Ben Zobrist's salary, he wouldn't be a terrible investment for only two more years if the cost to acquire him was minimal. He's not the same guy he was, but should still be able to cover multiple positions without hurting the team. Or maybe you take a chance on someone like Profar who has been a huge bust but is still young and out of options after this season. Regardless, if Goins the primary utility IF next season, then the FO definitely deserves flack for that. He's not a big leaguer, or if he is one, then he's easily replaceable.

The Jays have a lot of holes to fill for 2018. Morales is a huge issue, Pearce needs to be much better than average offensively if they are using him in LF, the middle infield can't stay healthy, they will need to upgrade both corner OF spots, the bench, the rotation, etc. Not going to be easy.

Went to MLB.com to see how the Jays did, was shocked to see the game still going.

Just in time to watch them lose in extras for what feels like the 200th time this season.

What is their actual extra innings record and what is the MLB record?

the full ugliness of the Jays roster was on display tonight - poorly constructed, many odd choices in terms of who gets ABs and playing time - this game could have been over in the 9th if Maile isn't batting with two on.  I had to look twice at the TV to make sure I wasn't imagining his .110 AVG and .150 OBP.   3 Ks already tonight, let's give him a chance for 4? 

Has there been a worse offensive showing in Jays history than Maile this year?

Rob Refsnyder, pinch runner?  Fields has earned a call-up, and he doesn't get thrown out there. 

Leone looked great with 7 pitches in the 8th - what is the harm in letting him pitch into the ninth, given Osuna's struggles? 

Tossing Donaldson was a shameful display by the ump.  Is it just me, or is this a bad year in umpiring? 

Not pulling Bautista early in extra innings for a pinch runner seems at least a little questionable. With the expanded call ups surely there was someone on the bench who is faster than Bautista and plays better defense (and this year, maybe even hit better) that you'd want running from third to score the go ahead run in extra innnigs? That person might have been out too as the throw was excellent, but Bautista wasn't even remotely close, and the proceeded to strike out and hit into double plays later in extra innings so it wasn't like you were desperate for his bat.

The good news is the post-Osuna relievers all looked pretty good to me.

The nice thing about all playoff hope being gone is you can enjoy the expanded rosters and hope for the fresh faces to do well. Sort of like a second spring training mindset.

Except for one guy, the bullpen looks pretty good.

Roberto Osuna is the greatest - he single-handedly may gtd. the jays a top ten pick & higher pool money - I hope they keep running him out there.

Last winter I advocated for the jays to trade Donaldson,Osuna,Happ,Estrada - I think the jays would be in a much better position to contend in 2018 if that path was taken - not a criticism of the FO but I think it was the smarter way to go & I understand the path they took.

Another terrible performance by the Jays offence, and another worrisome outing from Osuna. But on the positive side: the Jays are getting a lot of interesting new candidates for the 2018 bullpen. Nine innings were pitched by Dermody, Rowley, Santos and Koehler -- and they allowed only one run. Seven strikeouts and one walk in those nine innings.

Santos, in particular, seems like an afterthought, but he's looks so much better than Casey Lawrence over those small samples.

I agree with those who are arguing the need for another pinch-runner, and I agree that Roemon Fields would fill a need. Buffalo and New Hampshire finished their seasons on Monday -- there should have been a second wave of call-ups on Tuesday, which would have helped greatly in last night's game. I'd like to see Alford, Jansen, Fields and Gurriel. In some cases, they would be mostly watching and learning, without much playing time, but it would be good for their development and useful for the Jays, and I think they should have been promoted yesterday. (Yes, it would require a couple of new spots on the 40-man roster, but there are ways to do that at minimal cost.)

The things I regret over the last winter/spring.

1. Not signing a good defensive backup catcher.

2. Dumping Upton instead of Goins.

3. Not starting Biagini in AAA right away.

And in addition to those four hitters that I mentioned, the Jays should also promote Campos and Borucki, who are already on the 40-man roster.

After the 19 innings last night, I suspect the Jays will promote Campos and Tepesch, at a minimum. But I hope they also include a few of the younger prospects (Jansen, Alford, Borucki etc) who deserve a look.

Noticed something this mornng while on Fangraphs that pretty much sums up the Jays season; Marcus Stroman has contributed more fWar at the plate in 7 PA than Steve Pearce, Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, and Darwin Barney combined (2400+ PA).

Toronto is 5-13 in extra innings. MLB teams collectively have a .500 record in extras.

Houston went 1-11 in 2012, and I don't have the means to find a record that's worse.

I'm not sure if I'd agree with those who are criticizing Gibbons and Hale for continuing to run Osuna out there. Shutting him down for the season would destroy his confidence and prevent him from having an opportunity to end the season on a strong note. If the games are already meaningless, it's better to let a key player have a chance to work himself out of a slump. Certainly his blown saves are worrisome, but his peripherals aren't too terrible. Over the past 21.2 innings, he has allowed 25 hits, but only one home run and only 5 walks (vs 27 strikeouts). Others have noted here, in the past, that he has suffered from some bad luck and poor defence in his blown saves. While it's reasonable to be concerned about him, the correct approach is probably to let him figure it out and bounce back. This will provide a useful skill that will stand him in good stead in any slumps he suffers in the future. To shut him down would be to signal that he is as bad as Howell or Grilli -- a reliever to give up on -- which he is not.

About the pinch runner - with Bautista hitting like he has, it made very little sense to use Goins to pinch run for Saunders on first while the go ahead run in Bautista was on third with one out. Bradley Jr's throw was incredible, but it would've been nice to see Goins or Carrera trying to score there instead.

Urena looked like a stud in the field all night long, it was an impressive defensive performance.

"Last winter I advocated for the jays to trade Donaldson,Osuna,Happ,Estrada - I think the jays would be in a much better position to contend in 2018 if that path was taken - not a criticism of the FO but I think it was the smarter way to go & I understand the path they took."


The Jays were coming off consecutive ALCS appearances so trading pieces like that last winter was never a real option, but considering where the Jays will finish this season, it will be a lot easier to do what you suggested above this winter. As much as I would like this team to be able to transition into the next core group without having to take a step back, with the way this season has gone it is hard to envision that happening. The worse off this season ends up, the better it might be for the club long-term if it pushes ownership to agree to take a step back in 2018, but if anything, it might push them to give Shapiro more money to keep chugging along rather than risk losing attendance/revenue so soon after the rebirth of the fanbase.

The best of both world's solution might be to trade some players (Donaldson, Happ, Osuna) and still try to contend in 2018 at the same time. Much harder to pull off, but at least it would help add more pieces to mesh with the timeline for the prospects coming up.

MLB teams collectively have a .500 record in extras.

Well, duh!

Just saw on twitter that, since the ASB, the Jays have lost 18 road games. Eleven of them have been by one run, nine of those in walk off fashion. On the season they've been walked off fourteen (14!!!!) times.

We all know they've lost five games with one out to go. They've lost at least another three games with ninth inning leads, so that's at least eight losses this season taking a lead into the last inning. Oh, and despite that run in the middle of the season where they were winning all those one run games, they've now crossed back under and are sitting where Blue Jay teams end up year after year: losing record in the one run games.

Despite the really bad run differential, they've also had what feels like an inordinate number of close gut-punch type losses.

And the positive side: no one has died.

Everyone wants to rebuild with kids but then trade away the best and youngest kids at the first sign of struggle.

for what possible reason would they shut Osuna down?

Despite all the micro-analysis and what ifs, it's worth keeping one macro-level fact in mind. The team ranks 23rd in MLB in run differential.

Has there been a worse offensive showing in Jays history than Maile this year?

Nope! Maile's .110/.148/.183 earns him a lofty OPS+ of negative-14 over 115 PAs.

The all-time worst heading into this season with 100+ PA, so far as I can tell, was Kevin Cash's .142/.179/.198 in 117 PAs over the offensively-minded 2003 season, good for a negative-2 OPS+.

Reading through baseball history books as a kid, I was taught that Ray Oyler had the worst hitting season ever in 1968 by hitting .135 with one home run as the starting shortstop for the Tigers.

He had 247 PAs and went .135/.213/.186, but that was good for an OPS+ of 20 in the Year of the Pitcher. Maile's worse in about half as many PAs even before you adjust for era, and that is a massive adjustment.

MLB teams collectively have a .500 record in extras.

Also, the Blue Jays are an amazing 64-0 when they outscore their opponents.

Uglyone, I'm not sure why Osuna should be shut down unless he is injured. However most managers would have shifted him into lower leverage outings until he gets unbroken.

One more Maile point: He is also the worst hitter under the "eye test" I have seen rack up 100+ PAs for the Jays.

Just some inelegant, hopeless swings. Off the top of my head, he is the weakest at pitch recognition I can recall. The Jays have had some otherwise good hitters with ugly holes in their swing, but Maile is just regularly nowhere close to recognizing the pitch as a hitter.

He is also the worst hitter under the "eye test" I have seen

I concur. He looks terrified at the plate. Deer in the headlights.

I asked this during his last stint. He is going to test where the bar is on how poorly a backup catcher can hit and still warrant playing time. How low an offensive bar is it? It certainly can't be this low, can it?

When the alternatives are Miguel Montero and Raffy Lopez, the bar is set firmly on the ground. I'm sick of watching them stab at pitches, be completely unable to throw out a baserunner, and literally lose a game for the team because of a lack of mental focus. Hopefully the front office learned its lesson about defence this season and won't act surprised again next year if they sign a bunch of guys with negative defensive value and the defence is poor.

I mean why wouldn't we just go with jansen and mcguire the rest of the way? we get to see how they handle it, give them some experience, and have some enjoyment watching them. And they can hardly be a downgrade anyways.

we can't seriously believe that these guys we picked up off waivers have actually gained any worthwhile value in their time here, can we?

Blue Jay pitchers have an ERA of 3.65 when Maile is catching and 4.48 overall.  The K/W with him in the game is 2.89 (2.44 generally).  It makes a big difference.

Obviously I would prefer to see Jansen and Alford/Fields here.  I get that Jansen might need a rest, but I don't see an explanation for the absence of both Alford and Fields.  It would have made a difference last night. 

A fan might be excused for believing that the brass is, at this point, indifferent whether the club wins or loses.  If that is the case, it can't be good for team morale.  Whether you get the #9 pick or the #12 pick is less important than making an honest effort to win with the players you have. 

How does the options game work with Jansen & McGuire? If they're added to the 40 now, that means you're burning an option in 2018. Or do they need to be added to the 40 in the offseason anyway, so that isn't a part of the equation? Gurriel, Smith Jr., Alford, Ramirez, Borucki, and Campos are already on the 40 but aren't up.

My understanding is that they don't burn an option year when they are called up in September, since they will remain with the team for the rest of the season and hence they don't have to be "optioned down" at any point.

That's all the more reason to bring them up.  But here we are, 1 pm ET on Sept. 6, two days after the end of the Buffalo and New Hampshire seasons, and a day after a grueling 19-inning game, and still no call-ups of Alford, Fields, Jansen, Campos, Borucki, Tepesch, or anyone else.  A second wave of call-ups had been widely expected and predicted.  Instead all we've had so far is Chris Rowley and Luis Santos.

maybe fenway's tiny dugouts/clubhouses are an issue.

But if you're adding them to the 40 then they will have to be optioned down in 2018, and that could be a waste of an option year if they didn't need to be protected and placed on the 40 anyway.

It would be funny if the size of the Fenway clubhouse/dugout actually had an effect on the managing of the roster.

I guess I'm in the minority with the Jays decision to allow Jansen to go home and rest. He's had a long year and as a catcher is almost assuredly beat up. He's never played more than 57 games in any season since being drafted and played 104 this year already.

You don't want to lose anyone in the Rule 5 draft. Max that can be lost is 3.
Once that risk is over, you don't want to unnecessarily burn any options.
Urena is a good example to consider. We protected him from the Rule 5 and then let 1 option get used. To play full time, which is necessary for his development, he would be optioned and burn another option. He could learn at the ML level but hitting struggles are very likely. This will hurt the team.

Fields may not be added to the 40 man. The FO may feel that he will survive the Rule 5 draft. This saves a 40 man spot and still leaves him available for future promotion.

Well, duh!

Admittedly, it was a smart-ass response. I blame the grumpiness caused by staying up past 1am, just to see the inevitable play out.

A quick note on the Blue Jay run differential.  The club is getting killed in blowouts (games decided by 5 runs or more) not only by W/L 12-24, but even more so by RS/RA -105.  They are +6 in runs scored vs. allowed in all other games.
It is good to win games in a blowout, but there is diminishing utility in each run scored. When a lead is more than 8 runs or so, it hardly matters at all and teams use these games to get the last man in the pen some work (and sometimes a position player to pitch).  The Blue Jays have had one of these games on the positive side all season, a 17-2 laugher against the Reds, and typically they faced horrendous pitching when the game was out of hand.  They've been on the other side of these games 7 times.

In this age of the 10 day DL and 8 man pens, it becomes much more feasible to run out a pitcher in a game one is losing by 8 or 10 runs who will be gone the next day.  Pythagoras is a blunt instrument.  In this particular case, I would venture a guess that the effective run differential  (the run differential to the point where both clubs continue to compete to win the game) would be close to 65.

For comparison, the Reds are -91 in run differential, -72 in blowouts (18/28 record) and -19 in other games.  They are 7-9 in games decided by 8 runs or more.   In their case, the effective run differential is very close to the actual. 

Pythagoras is a blunt instrument.

No question. The diminishing utility of runs was seen as a frequent bludgeoner in the past and as a frequent bludgeonee in the present. I'm just refocusing on the big picture before we opt to find 10-15 random runs allowed, here and there throughout the season, that have specifically caused the team to not be in contention. Such selective problem identification can be tempting, but it is not terribly instructive. All teams can play that game.

I agree with your general proposition.  This club has been a below average one, as its 12-24 record in blowouts reflects (and which tells you more than its perfectly typical 20-21 record in one-run games). 

Michael Saunders is in the starting lineup tonight, batting 5th and playing LF.

There's nothing wrong with that, in my view. He has 2 hits in 3 plate appearances so far, despite the inherent difficulties of trying to hit in limited appearances off the bench. He is still only 30. Who knows, there might still be some value in him next season. Nothing wrong with taking a look.

China Fan, I can't really agree with you on the Saunders point. Since coming back from his injury 2 years ago he's become a poor defensive player. He's essentially in the same boat as Pierce and Bautista. In order to be even an average LF he'd have to hit something like 125-135 RC+. I don't want to see that experiment again next year. If you were trying him out for a DH/1B role then maybe, but the Jays need to shed some bodies of that ilk, not add to them.

Singles turn into automatic doubles when Montero is catching.

Tabler didn't exactly hit successfully against Randy Johnson - he went 2-20, with 3 BB and a SF (.100/.208/.100). But it must be said that his luck on balls in play was just awful. The Unit only struck him out once, so his BABiP was .105, which is pretty hard to do.

"...Not signing a good defensive backup catcher...."

Luke Maile hasn't solved the Jays problems.  Having him in early April (instead of early May) wouldn't have made any difference.


They didn't sign Maile. They picked him off on waivers for free. They could have found someone who can play good defense and hit .200.  Besides, April was terrible. They started 1-9. But May was their best month, they almost recovered in May and  then spent most of the summer hovering a game under .500.


"....Dumping Upton instead of Goins...."

Upton is hitting as badly in the minors this year as Goins is hitting in the majors.

I didn't want him for his hitting. He could have replaced Bautista late in games and it would have been nice to have a pinch runner who can actually steal a base. That could have trimmed a lot of those walk off losses down.

"....Not starting Biagini in AAA right away...."

Sure, if you knew in March that the entire season was a write-off. 

It was pretty obvious that they needed a 6th starter at some point. I didn't know Leone was going to step up like he did, but I was sold on Barnes after last year. They still had Osuna, Tepera, and Smith plus Grilli who wasn't going to be released in the spring. The pen always looked  fine. The issue has been with guys who couldn't be sent down like Howell, Grilli and Osuna.

So yeah, that's how I was feeling back in the spring.

what would sending him to AAA have done, exactly?

Start Biagini in the Ml pen and then send him down to get stretched out.

2018 could have the same exact decision.

Biagini starting 2017 in AAA would have meant that he would have been stretched out and working on his repertoire as a starter, rather than pitching (a lot) of high leverage short relief in April and then being thrust into a starting role due to lack of other options. It wasn't about not putting the best team on the field, it was about covering your bases in the event an injury hit (and many of them did unfortunately).

If the Jays can re-sign Estrada and Anderson, or sign two pitchers in general, then Biagini should start 2018 in AAA as well. Gibbons rarely uses a long reliever for multiple innings, and flip flopping roles constantly is unfair to Biagini. If they think he's a starter long-term, then he should be either in the big league rotation or Bisons rotation.

I don't get it. It took zero time to stretch Biagini out.

The Star (and others) have mentions about the Marlins doing another fire sale this winter. If the Jays really want to contend in 2018 and beyond this could be a rare chance to really retool fast.

Giancarlo Stanton is the big prize and almost certainly has to be traded in order to make their new payroll targets (sub $100 mil, and maybe as low as $55 mil). Boy would he look great replacing Bautista wouldn't he? However, his contract is $25+ mil a year starting next year and going until 2027 with an option for 2028 with an opt-out for Stanton after 2020 and he has a full no-trade clause. He is from California so probably wants to be traded out west. To get him you'd need to do a full sales job on him with current and former players convincing him that being a national star in Canada is better than being a regional one in the USA. He would also cost in prospects.

Martin Prado: 2 years $28.5 mil - solid defense, poor offense this year at 3B but was solid for the 5 years before. A risk, but if Donaldson is traded then he would be a good stopgap until Vlad is ready. This guy would be a pure salary dump.

Edinson Volquez: RHP 1 year $13 mil - a blah 4/5 starter who has had years where he'd be a good #3. Again, almost a pure salary dump.

Dee Gordon: 2B 4 years $47 mil, high defense, high speed. Fills a sorta hole here depending how one views Travis. Probably not too expensive as his OPS+ the last 2 years was just 84 after 2 years over 100.

There are a few near useless players making money there too who could be added to cut the cost in prospects, like Brad Ziegler ($9 mil next year currently a poor RHP reliever), Junichi Tazawa (same but worse and gets $7 mil next year), and the big one Wei-Yin Chen getting $52 mil over the next 3 years on player options. He was solid in Baltimore but has sucked and been hurt in Miami.

So there is potential for a killer trade if the Jays are willing to eat money and we all know the Jays should have it. Just $76 mil committed for next year plus arbitration (just Donaldson is a killer, although Stroman could be expensive too) so far plus many ways to clear more if they really want to I'm sure.

" I'm just refocusing on the big picture before we opt to find 10-15 random runs allowed, here and there throughout the season, that have specifically caused the team to not be in contention. Such selective problem identification can be tempting, but it is not terribly instructive. All teams can play that game."

Exactly. The Jays are one of the worst-10 teams in baseball by record, by Pythagorean, and by talent. The Jays hitters have the second worst WAR in all of baseball. Ultimately, this is a team that just isn't very good. Getting a better defensive LF, getting a better backup middle infielder, a backup catcher, making slightly different managerial choices, etc...wouldn't make a difference in the end. These issues have been coming for a few years and are caused primarily by having an aging roster and a system that hasn't produced a single core offensive player in more than a decade and very few major leaguers at all in that period. (I don't think people realize how terrible the Jays have been at developing position players. For position players 29 and under, the Jays have 0.8 WAR in total. Next worst in all of baseball is 2.4 WAR. They also have 1,000 fewer PAs from players under 29 because they simply aren't in the Jays' system. The Jays have had a paltry 61 PAs from players 25 and below because the Jays simply don't have the young talent other teams do. Or put, it this way. Who is the best homegrown Jays' position player who has come up since 2007? Pillar? Lawrie? Snider? Eric Thames? Lind?. The Red Sox have brought up Betts, Benditendi, Devers, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Reddick, Lowrie, Bogaerts, Shaw, Bradley, Iglesias, and Moss in the same period. How can you possibly compete like that?)

The problem with this is that when you have complex problems, you have complex answers and the answer to the Jays problems are not spending more on free agents or roster management or firing the manager. These are things that can buy you a win or two and make a difference to teams in the cusp. The Jays are not there. The answers are long-term. The team requires a long-term investment in a system that will churn out major league talent with some regularity. Without that, you simply can't win. But to do that, it requires some patience and understanding from the fans about where the team actually stands.

And if you need proof that trying to compete by spending money on free agents and making a long-term investment in a system are NOT mutually exclusive, look no further than those very same Boston Red Sox. Price, Hanley, Sandoval, Porcello, Lackey, Crawford, Victorino, Drew, etc. haven't prevented them from churning out that talent.

The rain made everything tough today, but I thought the OF defense was much stronger with these 3 than it has been much of the year, but Catcher and SS was really bad in this game.

The double play on the dropped fly ball was a funny play.

"And if you need proof that trying to compete by spending money on free agents and making a long-term investment in a system are NOT mutually exclusive, look no further than those very same Boston Red Sox. Price, Hanley, Sandoval, Porcello, Lackey, Crawford, Victorino, Drew, etc. haven't prevented them from churning out that talent."

It's not mutually exclusive at all but
1) Look at the impact of the players in the system versus players got via free agency. Price, Hanley, Crawford Sandoval, and others were atrocious contracts that the team either had to eat or deal or suffer through. (FYI, Porcello was an extension not a free agent). it is very hard to get value in the free agent market. If the Red sox hadn't have signed a single free agent from that list, they'd have been better off.
2) The cost for most teams to enter free agency for big players is prohibitive. There are a few teams willing to pay huge amounts and other teams can't take on that risk.
3) Most importantly, it only makes sense to go big into free agency when you are on the cusp of winning. Being a 75 win team with an old core, it would be idiotic to invest massively in free agency.

Obviously, teams need to always be active in free agency, but the era of winning that way is over (and was always exaggerate anyway, Yankees were much more driven by developed guys). It's too expensive, inefficient, and risky. For a team like the Jays who legitimately have about 5 major holes, getting free agents is important but in the end, the Jays are not going to become a competitive team by signing free agents.

Biagini has options. Going forward you can have him compete for the pen or compete for starts.
At this point, koehler has the long relief locked up and he's out of options.
Biagini probably begins next year in Buffalo no matter what.
Let's ride Carlos Ramirez while he's hot.
I feel that as a converted player who relies on the slider, he could turn into Sergio Santos at any time.


I'd do a Stanton for Pillar and prospects deal as long as long as it's guys like Conner Greene.
I still want to roll with Alford and Hernandez.

I'm worried that both Bichette and Guerrero Jr would be the starting point for a Stanton trade.

I've posted a few times about the lack of position players the Jays have brought up through their system in the past decade - it's stunning they've managed to be so competitive despite this glaring hole in their franchise history.

Jays need for 2018 -

at least one good middle infielder because Travis and Tulo aren't incredibly likely to play 250 (200?, 162?) games between them. The best middle infield prospect would be Bichette, but last I heard his defense is still pretty shaky, error-wise. I would guess he would currently hit as well as Barney/Goins, as a floor, even as a 19 year old. That's not much of a floor of course. MLB managers hate error-prone defensive players though. It's not impossible he'll simply improve his defense over the winter and make a push for the team, but I don't think the Jays would start his MLB clock. This situation is almost impossible to fill with a free agent, since good players don't typically sign to be a back-up/injury fill-in. Buffalo is a middle-infield wasteland, maybe Tim Lopes (AA) can be an improvement next year?

backup catcher - surely one of these years they can find a C that can play acceptable defense and isn't god-awful hitting. Maybe it is Lopez? I haven't seen many games lately, how's he behind the plate?

OF - any and all options should be open. Pillar's defense seems to have rebounded from early struggles, so CF is at least OK. Alford maybe? With a smaller bullpen, you might platoon your way to reasonable success in the OF corners, but with all the question marks in the bullpen and rotation, I don't see the Jays bucking the trend on this one and carrying a couple of spare OFers instead of extra relievers.

I think the best chance the Jays have in 2018 is being super-aggressive with the minor-leaguers. I would be shocked if they tried it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Guerrero, Bichette, and Alford could all be average or better next year, if given a chance. Frankly I don't give a damn about what they'll cost 5 years from now as a result - with the higher dollar and Rogers' many many billions, worrying about a budget crunch in 2022 (instead of 2023 or 2024) in case young players turn out to be great young players seems like a chance any GM should be willing to take.

I'm ignoring roster construction of course - Guerrero has to play somewhere with Donaldson here.

Stanton would be fine as a salary dump acquisition, but as a value-for-value trade (i.e. very top prospects) I'd stay away. Just resign Donaldson if you're willing to spend that much money on one guy. As happy as I am to spend imaginary Rogers money, that's one loooong contract.

"I'd do a Stanton for Pillar and prospects deal as long as long as it's guys like Conner Greene.
I still want to roll with Alford and Hernandez."

Seeing how that would be an incredibly stupid trade for Miami, of course Blue Jays fans would be for it.

Stanton has 10/295 left on his deal, a full NTC, and can opt out after 2020 (though chances are he isn't walking away from 7/218 from 2021-27). I think it's safe to say the Jays will have no interest, and with good reason.

The only Marlins salary dump that makes sense for the Jays is Gordon since they lack middle infield depth and a dependable 2B with Travis having so many injury issues. Adding Yelich would be great and fits the team's needs perfectly, but that would require trading real prospects, and I don't think the team is ready for that yet. Maybe there is a way to soften the prospect blow by taking back a few bad deals in order to get Yelich cheaper, but depends on what the Marlins are looking to do.

The Red Sox are one of the best pitching teams in all MLB (2nd AL with an 83era-, with 0 homegrown pitchers) and one of the worst hitting teams in all MLB (13th AL with a 92wrc+, with all their amazing homegrown guys).

And I don't get where the convo about homegrown talent comes from anyways.

The Jays right now have one of the best systems in baseball (again). Nothing has stopped them from doing that.

They could have spent huge on better FAs and still had one of the best systems in baseball.

Our system looks good now due to recent acquisitions Vlad & Bo. 1st yr in full season ball.

The potential is there for Alford. 1st good year for D Jansen. Recent addition of T Hernandez. Good improvement for McGuire based on results rather than being a high draft pick.

Our pitching would account for most of our farms value if it was not for the position players I mentioned.

Rowdy could reopen eyes next year.

uo - Red Sox do have homegrown "guys" like Barnes, but the vast majority of the value this year is from players acquired in trades, using their prospect capital. Scrap heap waiver claim Fister has given almost the same value as Price of the huge FA contract.

yeah there's barnes, a solid middle reliever.

good call on Fister.....in fact, the two guys driving the red sox down the stretch here have been their two cheapo pickups - Fister and Nunez.

we could have picked up both without sacrificing our future in any way, and both would have been absolute perfect fits for us.

That's just good GMing.

Watch Dombrowski trade Benintendi/Devers for Stanton this offseason. And see the team only get better for it.

Boston got lucky with Fister, just like we got lucky with Leone. I'm sure scouts saw something, but they often see something that doesn't translate to success either. Sometimes waiver claims pay off - a lot of times they don't. There's a reason they were waived in the first place, the reason usually being they're not good enough at baseball.

As for Nunez - yeah, a smart pickup. We could have outbid Boston for Nunez, but for what purpose? So our crappy team would be a bit less crappy? He's a pure rental, since he'll be a FA. Very worth it to Boston to give up prospects, but far less worth it to Toronto.

The 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox signed in the offseason their starting RF (Victorino), 1B (Napoli), SS (Drew), and LF (Gomes), as well as a SP (Dempster).

Nothing would have saved us from the injuries this year, but that doesn't excuse not making an honest attempt to win the last two years.

I see similarity in the Blue Jays and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Trading good prospects for someone like Giancarlo Stanton is just the kind of dumb move that the Leafs did over and over. ( Actually they would have traded good propects for someone like Kendrys Morales, but that's beside the point )

Over the past 3 or 4 years they have finally seen the light, drafted well and resisted the temptation to trade any of these young players for a quick fix, made a few astute trades using established roster players to fill holes, and kept a few veterans to mentor the youngsters.

I see this as a path the Jays will follow. Shapiro has already stated he is not satisfied with the lack of talent in the upper levels of the farm system and wants waves of good prospects arriving in the future.The front office seems really focused on development of their minor leaguers and building the parent team with them. I really don't see any top-rated young players being traded in the next few years, and I suspect the big league team will be patched with cheap free agents and maybe the trade of a veteran or two. I don't think we'll see the Jays in contention again until Vlad and Bichette make an impact sometime in the future.

I updated this last weekend so it's not 100% up to date but it's close.

Team "AA Burnt the Farm to the Ground"

1. 3B Lawrie (27): 2417pa, 100wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
2. LF Thames (29): 1171pa, 105wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
3. DH D'Arnaud (28): 1393pa, 92wrc+, 1.1war/650pa
4. C Gomes (29): 1940pa, 89wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
5. RF Snider (29): 1971pa, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
6. 1B Wallace (30): 1440pa, 94wrc+, -0.5war/650pa
7. CF Marisnick (26): 1291pa, 77wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
8. SS Hechavarria (28): 2605pa, 71wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
9. 2B Barreto (21): 50pa, 54wrc+, -2.6war/650pa

UT Lugo (22): AA 734pa, 113wrc+
OF Gose (26): 1252pa, 81wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
OF Becerra (22): A+ 782pa, 104wrc+
IF Pastornicky (27): 268pa, 67wrc+, -4.0war/650pa
C Perez (25): 587pa, 63wrc+, 1.2war/650pa



SP Syndergaard (24): 59gs, 76era-, 5.1war/32gs
SP Desclafani (27): 56gs, 101era-, 2.4war/32gs
SP Alvarez (27): 92gs, 97era-, 2.2war/32gs
SP Graveman (26): 66gs, 102era-, 1.9war/32gs
SP Norris (24): 43gs, 100era-, 1.9war/32gs

SP Hoffman (24): 22gs, 106era-, 1.0war/32gs
SP Musgrove (24): 25gs, 128era-, 0.8war/32gs
SP Nicolino (25): 33gs, 121era-, 0.4war/32gs
SP Boyd (26): 50gs, 137era-, 0.3war/32gs
SP Nolin (27): 7gs, 172era-, -1.6war/32gs
SP DeJong (23): 4gs, 184era-, -2.0war/32gs
SP Wojciechowski (28): 11gs, 207era-, -2.0war/32gs


RP Dyson (29): 241.2ip, 77era-, 0.7war/65ip
RP Collins (27): 211.0ip, 87era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Rzepczynski (31): 297.1ip, 89era-, 0.3war/65ip
RP Castro (22): 80.0ip, 91era-, 0.1war/65ip
RP Stewart (30): 28.2ip, 119era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Magnuson (31): 14.2ip, 155era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Rollins (27): 34.1ip, 194era-, -1.1war/65ip

RP Comer (24): AAA 63.2ip, 3.68era, 3.78fip, 4.21xfip
RP Labourt (23): AAA 22.0ip, 2.45era, 5.29fip, 5.60xfip
RP Cordero (25): AAA 1.1ip, 27.00era, 6.17fip, 7.76xfip
RP Molina (28): AAA 4.0ip, 13.50era, 8.41fip, 3.53xfip
RP Tirado (22): AA 12.0ip, 6.75era, 7.15fip, 8.55xfip
RP Tinoco (22): A+ 148.0ip, 5.53era, 5.35fip, 4.99xfip
RP Wells (21): A 196.2ip, 6.04era, 5.04fip, 4.48xfip

I know that "shoulda, coulda, woulda" is the lifeblood of blog comments, but I for one will be pretty disappointed if the Jays unload prospects for Stanton or go "huge" in free agency.

I don't think it would have made any difference this year given all of the holes that developed, and it sure won't next year.

The reality for next year is that they have one young starter (Stroman), a couple of good young relievers and that's about it as far as players to build around.

Donaldson is not re-signing, Smoak is as likely to turn back into a pumpkin as maintain, Bautista is gone, Martin and Tulo are brittle and likely underperforming their massive contracts, and the starting rotation is full of question marks. Two of the best young players can't stay healthy.

I think the thing to do is to try out some young players (the outfielders, maybe a few pitchers) and sign a few stop gaps (ideally that might be flipped at the deadline) that might have some upside on the cheap. Maybe Travis, Sanchez, and Pompey can be part of rebuild, maybe not.

It a year or two you could see them having some good young players trying out at just about every position. Once they start to slot in, the Jays could supplement with some free agents.

Why not just do it next year?
1) you don't know which prospects are going to succeed
2) the suckier the Jays are, the better their draft picks

For those who wanted the Jays to sign EE, would you really rather have him and his cumbersome contract at this point instead of Pearson? I certainly wouldn't. "Big pricey free agent" moves probably flop more often than not, especially for a team that isn't a top-tier spender.

The trade in 2013 with the Marlins did not work out IMO. Only Buehrle worked out. That was a lot of money committed for poor results.

The Marlins back loaded their FA contracts. The Jays paid the biggest bucks.

I don't want a trade for Stanton. I hope that Toronto is on his no trade list.

So for Stanton would you, if you ran the Jays, take on the ugly group of contracts? Brad Ziegler ($9 mil next year currently a poor RHP reliever), Junichi Tazawa (same but worse and gets $7 mil next year), and the big one Wei-Yin Chen getting $52 mil over the next 3 years on player options. Net $68 mil for 2 middle relievers and a maybe starter (the 3 might be worth $3 mil on the open market) plus the massive Stanton contract. Lets just assume Stanton would love the chance to set the HR record (Skydome is far better for HR than Miami's park).

If the Jays ate all those contracts they'd probably demand to make the prospects minimal or at least comparable prospects coming back.

Net cost: $54 mil next year, $46 mil in 2019, $48 mil in 2020. Then 'just' Stanton's contract ($25-$32 mil a year assuming he doesn't opt out after 2020). Potentially all contracts cleared after 2020. Well before guys like Vlad would start getting expensive. FanGraphs says Stanton has been worth nearly $48 mil this year and has been worth at least $14 mil every year of his career with 4 other years being over $30 mil. So in theory he would be worth it. The Jays taking a risk of him falling off a cliff and then keeping on his current deal eating tons of payroll for nothing.

Flip side: would you trade Vlad or Bichette for him? Odds are the Marlins would try for both.

While it's nice to fantasize, I don't think there is going to be any trade with the Marlins. The only big deal the Jays might be involved in would be dealing Donaldson and I am not even sure that will happen. I believe that the FO is committed to building with their own prospects.

Can't look at moves in isolation like that. If they sign EE, they likely let Bautista walk and get the same compensation pick unless he was willing to sit out until mid-June. And then there would have been other moves that followed because the front office would've been serious about contending in 2017.

For those who didn't want the Jays to sign EE, would you really rather have hung on to Donaldson, Estrada, and Happ and foregone a potential massive haul of young talent via trade while signing Morales to a cumbersome contract?

It would be a terrible move to trade anything of significant value for Stanton's backloaded deal. Just sign Harper or Machado if you have that kind of money.

Stanton would be fun to speculate about if AA was still around.

But the Jays will not be in this conversation now.

I'll repeat: Stanton has 10/295 left on his contract, which runs until he's 38. You want to top trade prospects for a $300M contract that will cover more of his declining years than his prime? Stanton is an elite offensive player right now, don't get me wrong, but there is nothing redeeming about that contract and his skill set doesn't strike me as one that will age particularly well. That would be the definition of short sighted.

The Jays will have no interest in that deal, nor should they. If the Red Sox want to trade Devers and Benintendi for him, then let them.

Rowdy could reopen eyes next year.

Has there EVER been power hitting prospect flame out so badly in AAA (e.g. .300 drop in OPS vs. AA) and recover to have a productive career in the majors? I just can't find or think of anyone of significance who has ever struggled so badly in AAA.

make sure you limit that to guys 22yrs old in AAA, not older.

"While it's nice to fantasize, I don't think there is going to be any trade with the Marlins. The only big deal the Jays might be involved in would be dealing Donaldson and I am not even sure that will happen. I believe that the FO is committed to building with their own prospects."


I think there might be a deal with the Marlins if the Jays really want Gordon like it was speculated months ago (his contract isn't unreasonable for a ~2 WAR player and can cover 2B/SS), but overall, I agree they are building towards prospects taking over big league roles rather than signing top free agents or trading for expensive contracts. They obviously do not want to rebuild for perceived optics and money (attendance/revenue/fan interest), so it will likely be more of the same as the last two years (small free agent signings to cover big league holes until prospects are ready).

Where the Yankees were able to bypass a true rebuilding phase was their ability to identify talent on other teams and make trades. Greene for Didi, Warren for Castro, Murphy for Hicks, Wilson for Green, etc. They basically got a starting SS, 2B, OF, and elite looking closer type for relievers and a back-up catcher. Atkins needs to start pulling some trades off like this and maybe they can bypass a hard rebuild, or at least make the transition a little easier for the fans. The Smoak extension working out was a nice start, but they'll need more of that. Like I said in a previous topic, they have cheap relievers who are doing well right now. They might be able to turn one or two of them into young(er) position players.

Don't stress, SK, these guys'll never sign a big FA or trade for a big contract.

As a 22 year old, Justin Smoak hit .328/.449/.481 in AA (.930 OPS, 227 PA) and then hit .244/.363/.360 (.723 OPS, 237 PA) in AAA. Not a .300 drop in OPS and still a much better control of the strike zone than Tellez, but Smoak was playing in the PCL not the IL, and was 3 months older than him with college experience. I'm unaware of Smoak dealing with the type of adversity Tellez has been going through this year, which can really take a toll on a 22 year old kid.

While I wouldn't be wanting to trade any A list prospects for him due to that contract, I would be willing to take it on plus another albatross or two of Florida's as right now, weird as it sounds, MLB players are underpaid.

I can hear the screams from many going 'what are you talking about'. Right now ML players eat only between 43% (via Boros) and 53% (via MLB) of known revenues for teams (via http://www.chroniclet.com/national-news/2016/03/21/AP-study-players-share-of-Major-League-Baseball-revenues-remain-stable-over-past-decade.html). That is low historically. The NFL is at 47% with the weakest union in all sports, NBA 49-51%, NHL 50%. However, all have different definitions of revenue (should MLB TV be counted or not, should it only count profits or raw revenue for MLB TV, etc). At one point I'm fairly certain ML players were at 61% pre-luxury tax. The maximum salary in MLB has yet to reach $35 mil with just 10 contracts ever being higher than A-Rod's setting of the bar at $25 mil in 2001. That is 17 years ago, and he just fell out of the top 10 average annual value now. Since free agency started in the 1970's I'm fairly certain you wouldn't find any contract staying in the top 10 for annual value or overall value for that long. Meanwhile FanGraphs has 2 players over $50 mil this year in value and 9 more over $40. A total of 17 providing more value than anyone has ever got a contract for. Either their method is screwed (as some feel) or players have fallen behind in contract negotiations (as I feel is the case).

Given the general rule is for there to be price inflation and that the Jays are very competition sensitive (over 86 wins vs below was a major factor in attendance based on a simple study I did months ago - basically being a contender vs a pretender is massive in this market) there is a big incentive for the management to make a splash this winter ideally without losing any significant kids. I see Stanton as being in that category much like Tulo was a few years ago and the big Marlins trade of 2013 was. Timing timing timing.

Sk, I agree with you 100% philosophically, but I don't agree that a trade for Gordon is at all likely. I did not think it fit the plan previously and my opinion has been reinforced as of yesterday when Atkins was interviewed on the pre-game telecast. He sounded very committed to Travis for 2018. I don't believe there will be any consideration to move on from Travis for another year at least if the injuries continue to occur.

And I agree with your view on the Red Sox. Let DUMBroski make more stupid trades if he so wishes. According to BA, the RS system is now in the bottom third and if they don't win this year or at least make it to WS, it will have been for naught. There is a reason he was shunned for many years. He is a boom/bust GM. Now I suspect there are a few on here who prefer that type but for me a steady hand with sustained contention in mind is more to my taste and I think that we have that now.

without Dumbrowski the sox would be sitting alongside us in last place.

I see today that the Rockies finally received the PTBNL from Baltimore for Castro. That trade was made in April as was the Jays deal that sent Graterol to Angels for PTBNL which has not come to Jays yet. I guess there is still hope it may arrive soon. The reason for such a delay could be that the calibre of player coming back may be tied to the length of time the major league player stayed on a major league roster which I think was the case in the Rockies trade. Does this make sense?

Stanton would be fun to speculate about if AA was still around.

Just like Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer were fun to speculate on. Ahhh....the good old days.

Just like Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer were fun to speculate on

Don't forget Aroldis Chapman!

And I'm not blaming AA either. That begging the players for money to sign Ervin Santana fiasco is indelibly etched in my memory.

As long as Rogers owns the team, I will not get my hopes up for any massive and/or lengthy contact.

PTBNLs have to be completed within six months so they have to complete this by Oct. 18... it's quite likely the Jays and Angels quietly completed for cash given how little Graterol played in the majors.

Let DUMBroski make more stupid trades

I haven't been an admin for many years, but this kind of comment used to drive me crazy.  Nothing that Dombrowski has done, good or bad, deserves a personal insult.  He's had a long career, most of it successful in my opinion.  You can disagree about that, but there is nothing he has done that merits a personal insult.  It is also contrary to the ground rules of this site which you find under the FAQ tab- the relevant rule is number 4.

Sorry, I will be more careful though it seems many more insulting comments than this pass by without comment.

What exactly was so stupid about the Chris Sale trade? In fact, what stupid trades has he made with the Red Sox?

the ones for non-elite RP look bad so far, but that's it.

Dombrowski is a good GM. He helped the Tigers put together a good run, and he's now doing the same with the Red Sox.

""Just like Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer were fun to speculate on. Ahhh....the good old days."

eh, Donaldson Martin Price Tulo Buehrle Dickey Johnson Reyes were enough for a 5yr stint.

Flip side: would you trade Vlad or Bichette for him?

No, next question.

"If they sign EE, they likely let Bautista walk and get the same compensation pick"

In retrospect, the Jays would have been better off letting both EE and Bautista walk and collecting both comp picks (irrespective of whether they should have signed Morales). I wonder whether, years from now, the consensus will be that this front office's Achilles' heel was a tendency to make fan-pleasing moves (or avoid fan-displeasing moves) in lieu of good baseball moves.

Regarding Stanton, there was a piece on BP Toronto a couple weeks ago that argued he'd be worth it:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/17/the-blue-jays-should-trade-for-giancarlo-stanton/

Having said that I think there's no chance in hell it actually happens. It just isn't Shapiro's MO and Stanton has a full NTC anyway.

Greenfrog, IMO, you can't ask the EE for Pearson question.  You have to ask EE for 1st round pick.  There's no guarantee that a first rounder hits the ground running like Pearson - just look at all our other first rounders for the last five years.  Resigning EE and not Morales was by far the right move, Pearson is immaterial to the conversation. 

And even if you do use hindsight and ask the question, with the liability that is Morales' contract, I still prefer we signed EE.

As for the big trades, no way does Stanton garner top talent from anyone, nor do the Marlins swallow enough of that contract to get it.  I could see a package of low upside quantity with a bit of salary relief from Miami making it work, but that contract is terrifying ... Miaimi resigning their hometown hero to that price maybe makes sense, but nobody is going to trade for it at a high price, in particular with the devaluing of one dimensional sluggers going on, even if that slugger is on a historic tear with the bat.  People were speculating that Miaimi might walk away from his contract if he was claimed in August - and he wasn't. 

The reality for next year is that they have one young starter (Stroman), a couple of good young relievers and that's about it as far as players to build around.

Wow, Ducey, that's easily a worst case scenario picture you are painting there.  One or both of Sanchez and Travis are likely back healthy, Pillar and Happ have value, Osuna is a stud (present struggles aside), Smoak is no pumpkin, JD is still elite and we have plenty of young OF talent ready to graduate.  Martin is going to be worth his contract or darn close to it, will be a great mentor for whomever wins the catcher of the future role, and there are multiple candidates for that role ready next year.   If Tulo can bounce back (and I would never bet strongly against a warrior like Tulo doing just that) we are a playoff contender easily. 

jerjapan, Encarnacion has been roughly a 2 WAR player in the first year of his contract. He's almost 35 and is basically a DH. Since the Jays were entering a rebuilding phase this year anyway, I'm happy with the comp pick, even with Morales as part of the package. Having an extra pick can be useful beyond what a single pick at #28 would normally yield. It can allow a team to play it relatively safe with their first selection (as the Jays/Sanders did with Warmoth) and then chase upside with the comp pick (Pearson). Or otherwise use the extra slot money in a creative way. Those are the kinds of talent-adding opportunities a rebuilding team needs. That's how Anthopoulos landed Syndergaard and Sanchez.

With respect to Graterol, he's been the backup catcher for the Angels all season. That's probably more contribution than expected, and I'd be disappointed and surprised if we don't get something more than cash out of the trade.

I don't see how re-signing Edwin would have been the "right" move at all. He is at a 2 WAR right now and projected to be around 2.5 by the end of the season. That's a 2 win drop from 2015, nearly a 1.5 drop from last season, and he'll be 35 and 36 over the next two seasons making $20M a year. Morales has been awful, but that doesn't mean Edwin would have 1) been good value, or 2) helped the Jays become any better than what they have been this season (an old bad team). I don't think FO had any intention of re-signing Bautista but they both fell into each other in January when Jose had no market and the Jays had no other options. An extra comp pick for Jose would have been great.

Peter, I mentioned Gordon because I don't expect the Marlins to want anything for him. I think the FO would take a contract if it didn't cost a real prospect. If not Gordon then someone else that another team may want to dump. This regime has to fill a lot of holes and they don't want to trade prospects. A straight salary dump from another team is probably what they will be looking at to avoid trading any real talent in addition to the "value" side of free agency.

EE's 2.6 fWAR (and counting) improvement on Morales this year is worth over $20 million per Fangraphs ... so subtract Morales deal from EE's and we have $9 million of surplus value this year.   Assuming both players decline at the same rate over the next two seasons (and it's easy to make the case that Morales is likely to decline faster), there is a lot of money / WAR being left on the table with the Morales deal. 

According to an older Harball times article, the average pre-FA WAR for a pick between 25-30 is 2.8.  at ten million per win, take $28 million off the difference between EE and Morales and we break even financially with a fan favourite and superior player still in the fold.  not to mention the roster issues with Morales - EE is both a better runner and a better fielder, although it is indeed relative.  And you have a $20 million dollar team option on EE that is likely not picked up, but its not nothing. 

I am disappointed that no more players were called up. I was very sure that there would be a 2nd wave of Sept call ups.

Borucki 1 AAA gm and Alford 12 ABs in AAA. What was the point. If there was a point it was minor.

I expected additions to the 40 man like Jansen, so that he would get called up.

Now I expect additions to the 40 man in late Nov to avoid exposure to the Rule 5.

I was expecting a lot of additions. 8, with quite a few coming in Sept. But now I think 6 would be the max in late Nov. 2 pitchers Pannone & Greene. 2 catchers. That would leave room for Rowdy if I am correct on 6 late Nov additions.

jerjapan, I'm still not convinced. If the Jays are in a rebuilding phase, they need marginal wins in the future, not the present. And if Pearson becomes a successful major-leaguer, he will provide low-cost WAR (at much less than $10m per WAR), at least before he reaches free agency. When he's contributing wins to the team at $500k to a few million dollars per year, the team will have that much more cash to deploy on other players. Viewed in this light, the EE versus Morales debate is somewhat of a red herring. Adding a couple of more expensive wins in 2017 just isn't all that valuable to the Jays (they are valuable to Cleveland, though).

Maybe I am misremembering, but there was no market for Bautista. The Jays concluded they were not going to get a comp pick and decided to bring him back for a year.

Sometimes it is fun to try and look forward a few years. Shall we try 2020?  The players currently under contract or who could be potentially playing the position at the major leaguelevel then include:

C- Jansen, McGuire, Adams, Pentecost
1B- Tellez, Noda
2B- Travis, Goins, Taylor
SS-Tulo, Urena, Bichette, Vicuna, Warmoth
3B- Guerrero Jr.
OF- Alford, Hernandez, Pillar, Pompey, Olivares

SP- Stroman, Sanchez, Biagini, Borucki, Pannone, Reid-Foley, Maese, Greene, Zeuch, Pearson
RP- Osuna, Leone, Tepera, Barnes, Harris,

Obviously, there is likely to be some position movement- Biagini and/or Sanchez might be relievers, Guerrero Jr. might be a first baseman, Bichette might be a third baseman, Pentecost might not be a catcher... Equally obviously not all of the players mentioned here will make it to the major leagues, and not all with the Blue Jays.  However, it does seem likely that at that point, the club will have a good base of talent and money to spend on filling holes.  It is nice to see the catchers, middle infielders, centerfielders and starting pitchers backed up a bit. 

2020 looks fun

RF Alford 25
3B Bichette 22
1B Guerrero 21
DH Donaldson 34
2B Travis 29
C Jansen 25
LF Hernandez 27
CF Pompey 27
SS Urena 24

UT Tulowitzki 35 (Tellez 25)
OF Pillar 31
IF Warmoth 24
C McGuire 25


SP Stroman 29
SP Sanchez 27
SP Pearson 23
SP Zeuch 24
SP Maese 23

RP Osuna 25
RP Leone 28
RP Barnes 29
RP Biagini 30
RP Tepera 32
RP Borucki 26
RP SRF 24

Borucki 1 AAA gm and Alford 12 ABs in AAA. What was the point. If there was a point it was minor.

The only thing I can think of really is giver the AAA team a taste of talent in case these guys graduate straight from spring next year and avoid problems with needing a new affiliate.

Greenfrog, I believe the original question was EE or Morales, but I think we likely agree, given the way the year went, that 'neither' was the correct answer. 

I'm not talking about the move in hindsight though - I didn't think the team was going to flop like this last offseason - this year is almost a worst case scenario.  In hindsight, I can see your point.  From what I knew at the time, I still believe that signing EE, not Morales, was the right move. 

For all this talk about how bad we are justifying not signing better players.....

EE/Fowler have been worth a good 5+ more wins than morales/Bautista (hell throw in pearce's 0.1war too), which gets us around .500 and in the hunt at thus point despite all the injuries.

add in some clever midseason GMing like adding fister and nunez for free nets us a few more wins and right into a playoff race.

"For all this talk about how bad we are justifying not signing better players.....

EE/Fowler have been worth a good 5+ more wins than morales/Bautista (hell throw in pearce's 0.1war too), which gets us around .500 and in the hunt at thus point despite all the injuries.

add in some clever midseason GMing like adding fister and nunez for free nets us a few more wins and right into a playoff race."

So basically, if the Jays made all the right moves in hindsight including two of the best pickups this year, they'd be at around .500? How many teams does that apply to? (answer, almost all. Even with Encarnacion and Fowler, that takes the Jays to 69-71 which moves them up to a tie with Seattle whose playoff odds are 3.3% and shows you exactly how useless marginal wins are to bad teams) Even in this case of hindsight, I'd rather have Pearson and Warmoth than a 3-5% chance to get to a 1 game playoff. The Jays need to build future assets and not keep throwing money at an aging core trying to get lucky.

From a fangraphs chat now where a fan questioned the Rangers trading Darvish (it applies here too)

"Give me a real prospect or two and I’ll take that over keeping a player that doesn’t make a different 24 times out of 25 in getting to be a mediocre team that gets a coin flip playoff game."

"In retrospect, the Jays would have been better off letting both EE and Bautista walk and collecting both comp picks (irrespective of whether they should have signed Morales). I wonder whether, years from now, the consensus will be that this front office's Achilles' heel was a tendency to make fan-pleasing moves (or avoid fan-displeasing moves) in lieu of good baseball moves."

That's my biggest criticism of them but I also get it. The Jays are bringing in fans and excitement to a level that hasn't been seen in 20 years and you don't want to alienate the fan base too much. I would have traded Osuna and Donaldson by now in baseball terms but if the cost is in millions of dollars of lost revenue and a shrinking fan base, that is a legitimate consideration.

I agree with this but a great young contending team in 2019 makes these problems go away. We had so many years of mediocrity that it seems a shame we seem to be back in no man's land.

It was so strange to sign Pearce and Morales - two players who are a match for all that is wrong with the roster construction - lack of flexibility / youth / speed / health and defense.

Having said that I still haven't heard anyone mount a credible defence for Rogers payroll parameters for a team second in attendance and the leagues top 3 TV ratings and merchandise / marketing opportunities through the roof - they should be spending smart up to the tax threshold taking back bad contracts to get more young talent in the OF and middle infield especially.

I still haven't heard anyone mount a credible defence for Rogers payroll parameters for a team second in attendance and the leagues top 3 TV ratings

Wouldn't the cyncical take be that the fans are coming out now, with the spending levels the way they are? What would be the motive to spend more? Surely further spending would bring back diminishing returns.

That would all change, of course, once the fans stopped coming out in droves, both in person and for the broadcasts. But a new generation has embraced this team and don't look to be fleeing any time soon.

"EE/Fowler have been worth a good 5+ more wins than morales/Bautista (hell throw in pearce's 0.1war too), which gets us around .500 and in the hunt at thus point despite all the injuries."


Five more wins puts the Jays at 69-71, which would be 4 games back of the 2nd Wild Card at the moment. The Jays likely could have gotten Edwin for 3/60 if they waited, but they likely would have had to pay Fowler more (possibly much more) than the 5/82 (+NTC) that he got from the Cardinals. Basically it would have been a $150M (give or take) commitment so the Jays could still miss the playoffs in 2017 but not have Warmoth (due to signing Fowler) and Pearson (due to re-signing Edwin) in the farm system. Even in hindsight it doesn't make any sense.

The time to sign free agents, even if it means taking a bit of a hit in the latter part of the contract, is when the team is young and ready to take the next step. Use free agency to supplement a young core at the big league level, not to double down on an old roster and hope it's sustainable. That is what gets teams into trouble.

"So basically, if the Jays made all the right moves in hindsight including two of the best pickups this year, they'd be at around .500?"

correct. making the realistic more expensive more aggressive moves would have had this team in playoff contention even in this year of disaster injuries.


"Give me a real prospect or two and I’ll take that over keeping a player that doesn’t make a different 24 times out of 25 in getting to be a mediocre team that gets a coin flip playoff game."


now there's a good question. logan warmoth vs. playoffs. I think if we crunch the numbers, the answer is playoffs.

"The time to sign free agents, even if it means taking a bit of a hit in the latter part of the contract, is when the team is young and ready to take the next step. Use free agency to supplement a young core at the big league level, not to double down on an old roster and hope it's sustainable. That is what gets teams into trouble."

wait so you don’t sign free agents to supplement a back to back playoffs team, but rather when you're in the midst of rebuilding?

Losing this year has little impact of losing or winning next year.

The things that decreases the odds of winning are trading away young players before they contribute and locking bad players on long, expensive contracts.

Bautista is the worst player on the team, followed by Barney and Goins.
This is an easy to fix problem.

"....The Jays are bringing in fans and excitement to a level that hasn't been seen in 20 years and you don't want to alienate the fan base too much. I would have traded Osuna and Donaldson by now in baseball terms but if the cost is in millions of dollars of lost revenue and a shrinking fan base, that is a legitimate consideration...."

This is exactly the point that I've been trying to make, and I extend my gratitude to Glevin for acknowledging it and for summarizing it in an eloquent way.  In fact, there is a recent quote from Shapiro which suggests that this is EXACTLY the rationale for the current Front Office strategy.  (Hat-tip to Andrew Stoeten for transcribing the audio from a recent MLB.com interview of Shapiro.)  Here is the quote:

We talked about what’s happened in Toronto, we’ve talked about how recent that really is, and I do think that I look out at the three million fans or the tens of thousands of fans that come here every night, and I think our job is to give them something to cheer about. So if we have a chance that we may — while the intellectual exercise may say we should probably blow it up and rebuild — that the decision you arrive at may not be that. Because, you know, hey, what we have here is so recent and so special, that we need to do everything we really can to keep it open as long as we can, yet still balance that with a sense of urgency to infuse talent every opportunity. We’ve done that in small ways, whether it be Teoscar Hernandez this year, whether it be the Liriano trade last year, where we also got two prospects. We feel like we’re focusing on a duality right now. At some point we may turn more one way than the other. It may not be the fastest way — it’s not the way Cubs and the Astros built what they’re doing, but it’s the way that fits our situation. Every situation is different.

In other words:  it might be tempting to blow up the team and follow the route of the Astros -- but then you lose the fan base and you lose millions of dollars in potential revenue. 
And, while Shapiro didn't say this, I think it's clear that a large and sustainable fan base (with the sustainable revenue that this creates) is what allows the Jays to invest a larger amount across their operations, including the minor-league system, scouting, minor-league development, international signings, and major-league free agents.  All of those things are what create a sustainable and successful long-term team.
I would also add this:  if it was so easy and sure-fire to create a winning team by blowing it up and waiting patiently for prospects, a lot more teams would be doing it.  Not every team has managed to do what the Astros did.  A lot of teams flounder and get high draft picks and STILL fail to reach the playoffs.  As a long-term strategy, I prefer what the Jays are doing:  a combination of acquiring young talent while still keeping a good product on the major-league field.  A strategy of "duality" as Shapiro calls it.

"wait so you don’t sign free agents to supplement a back to back playoffs team, but rather when you're in the midst of rebuilding?"


No, you sign free agents when you have a good young team in place and the win curve suggests adding a couple of wins via free agency (even if you have to pay more for it) is worth it. Otherwise, what benefit is there? The Jays after 2016 were a ticking time bomb as far as how long the FO could make the success last. There was always a strong chance that things were going to go downwards, it was just a matter of when. Doubling down on free agency in that scenario was not the right way to go, and I think their record this season proves it. Edwin and Fowler are essentially hitting their WAR projections this year while Bautista and Morales have performed in an absolute worst case scenario, and it still would have made no difference in team success if you swapped those players.

I don't mind signing free agents in general. If you want to sign a good player just for the sake of having a good player, then fine. The issue is when you're talking about spending significant amounts of money on a single player for a team that is in a situation where those extra wins don't mean as much and the contract could potentially cause payroll inflexibility. In Edwin's case it also would have cost a comp pick. Circumstances have to be considered.

"....I wonder whether, years from now, the consensus will be that this front office's Achilles' heel was a tendency to make fan-pleasing moves (or avoid fan-displeasing moves) in lieu of good baseball moves...."

But the "fan-pleasing moves" can coexist with good baseball moves.  You can do both.  You don't have to do one "in lieu of" the other.  At least, this is exactly the argument being advanced by Mark Shapiro, according to the quote that I just posted.  He believes you can do both.

We will see if it works.  But given the wave of talent that should arrive by 2019 and 2020, it doesn't make sense (to me) to give up on 2018 and alienate the fan base for the sake of saving a little money in one transitional year.  Sign a couple of free agents for the outfield or infield, hope for better success from the new free agents (compared to the failed Bautista gamble), and hope for better health from Sanchez and Travis and improved performance from Morales. Or engineer a trade or two to improve the lineup.  If the rotation and bullpen remain strong, an improved offense could turn the team into contenders again.  And that's just for the transitional year.  By 2019, the first wave of strong new talent will be there.

The past two years has been a balancing act by the FO; balancing trying to win short-term with trying to add as much to the farm as possible without sacrificing one for the other. It worked in 2016, but did not in 2017. Some here have suggested that they should have gone all the way in one direction or the other, and I see the logic in that thinking (at least in terms of rebuilding), but the situation they inherited was unique. They needed to take advantage of the small window the team had, but also needed to restock the farm system to avoid a long forced-by-performance rebuild. The "risk averse" free agent approach and hoarding of prospects was the right way to go, IMO. Unfortunately, Morales/Pearce/Bautista did not pan out like Estrada/Happ did the year before.

Looks like they will try again in 2018. Personally, I think this fanbase, especially with the recent Leafs success and how bad the 2017 season has been for the Jays, will understand and support a rebuild in theory, but I can understand ownership not wanting to derail a money train so quickly. This is basically the business side of how a team is run. I'd rather all decisions be baseball decisions, but that's simply not a realistic way most teams operate. Certainly not one that is corporate owned.

But why do they operate like this - it doesn't make any sense from a business point of view.

In the late 80s and early 90s the Jays were THE premier franchise. Not only were they viewed as the model franchise (compared to the damn Yankees in a baseball weekly cover story) but they had revenue streams coming out of everywhere. They had the top 3 payroll / top 3 franchise value and basically were every owners dream, with franchise value rising.

Now - Toronto as a city has grown faster than any competing city franchise (maybe somewhere like SF similar) both in terms of population growth / corporate spend / media spend and MTL has disappeared. They market to Canada FAR better than they used to with the Rogers machine.

We have the third highest attendance in baseball and huge media following. Why are they not building the brand to surpass all but the yanks and Dodgers - to be like the 90s.

Fenway sports group doesn't look at fans flocking back and say - oh we can keep payroll at Xm because fans still come -they protect the franchise value of the top 5 club (Boston not top 5 market by population 2 corporate spend or any other metric)

I don't get it. So short sighted and such a messier opportunity. It's a HUGE market - act like it.

And I'm not talking about stupid FA signings either - just act like the Sox and cubs and other big budget clubs do.

Please

Do we think that trading Josh Donaldson in the off season would be simply smart asset management or the sign of a bigger rebuild? I think the former, but would like to hear other opinions. I think there may be a feeling that doing this would alienate fans but I disagree. I think most fans are smarter than that and as long as the return seems good, it would be accepted and even endorsed.

And I should add that if there is not an offer worth of a year of JD, then I would alter my position and keep him for the one year. I think that the FO should be considering what is best for 2019 and 20 as opposed to 2018. I don't think a trade of JD is an automatic punt of 2018 though it could turn out that way. However, if the starting pitching luck and performance of 2016 were to return, a much younger contending team would still be possible.

And no doubt some will ask, why not extend him? I think most will agree that is unlikely to happen. In this case, it is term not dollars that are the concern. In the highly unlikely circumstance, he could be retained for no more than 3 years, it would need to be considered and would be.

If

2018 and 2019 output of young players in system + prospects in system + return for Donaldson/ Osuna + Donaldson / osuna salary spent elsewhere

Is better than young players and prospects and 2018 Donaldson /osuna plus 2019 osuna

Then you should make the trades - this obsession with doing right by the fans is to me a red herring - We should always do right them by acting like a big market club. It's not a tear down - it's a strategic reallocation of resources to 2018 or 2019 - just like the yankees did last year

Seeing josh Donaldson's surplus value used up on non contending teams when we could convert into 2019 chips and use the cash creatively (spending to the luxury tax) seems like poor resource allocation.

Don't let hypothetical fan reactions decide the policy to adopt - the leafs have shown the fans get it as long as you commit to spend and there's a plan there.

The difference in bWAR between Morales/Bautista and Fowler/Encarnacion is 5.5 wins so you might as well round up to 6, but that does not tell the whole story. Fowler is getting dinged for poor CF defense, and if he was playing RF all year that may have actually been a positive for him. He also hit the DL twice, and the Jays could've gotten a positive contribution by his replacement. Furthermore, WAR can't measure the effect having Bautista in RF has on the team's pitching staff; a catchable play is not made and then the pitcher is working out of the stretch the rest of the inning, forcing him to throw different pitches with a different defensive alignment. They wouldn't have traded Joe Smith if they were realistically in playoff contention, and if they cared about winning and not fooling casual fans there was plenty of moves that could've been made on the periphery to make this team marginally better. If it's 8-9 wins, all of a sudden the Jays are right in the thick of the race. I don't know anything about him and wish Logan Warmoth the best, but as somebody who has sat through their 2 decades of mediocrity I'm taking meaningful September (and August) baseball with the potential for a wild card game and more over a prospect, and it's really not all that close. It's easy for some dude in a chat to say otherwise and frame it in a way where of course you're going to take the prospect over a 3% chance at a wild card game. He isn't paying for tickets and watching the games all summer.

Shapiro has done a horrible job this year of "focusing on a duality". Rogers is still printing money with this team, but the TV ratings are way down and there hasn't been any interest in tickets on the secondary market for 2+ months already, which tells me their walk-up numbers are probably terrible as well. Of all my friends with seasons tickets, I'm the only baseball-loving idiot that re-upped his seats before their newly mandated in-season deadline (the threat was that your seats go back into the pool if you don't). If Shapiro really believed this team was as bad as some of the posters in here it was his job to remind Rogers why they hired him instead of allowing them to drag fans through the mud under the guise of playing both sides of the coin.

"No, you sign free agents when you have a good young team in place and the win curve suggests adding a couple of wins via free agency (even if you have to pay more for it) is worth it."

back to back playoffs team is not the place on the win curve to buy free agent wins?

and how long in your model until it's time to buy? 3yrs? 5yrs? because all these FA contractz will be over by then.

"The past two years has been a balancing act by the FO; balancing trying to win short-term with trying to add as much to the farm as possible without sacrificing one for the other."

why is that a balancing act?

how would signing better free agents have impacted the build of the system?

they could have done both quite easily.

"In the late 80s and early 90s the Jays were THE premier franchise. Not only were they viewed as the model franchise (compared to the damn Yankees in a baseball weekly cover story) but they had revenue streams coming out of everywhere. "

I always like to point out that the '80s "build from within" phase didn't actually succeed (even in a much easier divisiin), and it was only when Pat woke up and started adding stars from outside in any which way he could that we actually won anything.

"the TV ratings are way down and there hasn't been any interest in tickets on the secondary market for 2+ months already, which tells me their walk-up numbers are probably terrible as well. "

the worst is that they'll conclude that it's that we're fairweather fans who only care about wins, when it's actually that we're smart enough fans to not once again buy into their bullpoop ownership shenanigans again.

"Do we think that trading Josh Donaldson in the off season would be simply smart asset management or the sign of a bigger rebuild?"


I think it would be smart asset management, but from a direction standpoint, it depends on the follow up moves. A scenario where the Jays trade Donaldson but still try to contend is fine with me. I don't think they could actually contend without him in 2018 (it's questionable whether they could even with him), but at least in that scenario they would have maximized his value so that even if 2018 goes in the gutter they would be better off for 2019-beyond.

A bigger rebuild would imply punting 2018, which again, I personally would be fine with and I think most fans would as well, but that doesn't appear to be the reality of the situation based on reasons mentioned already.

"why is that a balancing act? how would signing better free agents have impacted the build of the system? they could have done both quite easily."


In the scenario you mentioned of signing Fowler and Edwin, it would have cost them two draft picks. On top of that, Edwin would have kept his 10/5 rights, while Fowler got a NTC with the Cardinals so it may have required a similar commitment to get him to sign in Toronto (in addition to more money). That would have impacted both the flexibility of the big league roster and the farm system.

The way to do both is to do more Happ/Estrada type of deals. They tried that with Morales and Pearce, and it failed. It happens. Not all free agent deals will pan out.

If Rogers says, go ahead and drop $180-200m a year on payroll (on top of IFAs and draft picks and stadium improvements and spring training facilities and front office personnel and training staff/resources, etc.), then sure, roll the dice on players like Price or Fowler or Chapman or Fielder or whichever marquee free agent is currently in vogue. But those players at present (i.e., at the "fully priced" stage of their careers) aren't a great gamble on a $160m payroll, even with a core of cheap young players.

"and how long in your model until it's time to buy? 3yrs? 5yrs? because all these FA contractz will be over by then."


If by buying you mean signing top free agents and trading prospects for big league help? That depends entirely on how the team looks. If Vlad, Bo, etc, are killing it in the Majors, and the Jays look like they are on the cusp of a strong 3-5 year run with some reinforcements, then that would be a good time. In other words, if the Jays in X amount of years look like the Yankees do now, then that would be the time.

"....their walk-up numbers are probably terrible as well...."

In mid-August, at a time when the Jays had already fallen out of contention and had no realistic playoff chance, the Jays attracted 149,508 paying fans to a four-game weekday series against the boring Tampa Rays, without the benefit of any weekend games and without any visiting-team fans to inflate the attendance.  Presumably a lot of those tickets were sold to walk-ups.  That's an average of 37,377 fans per game in that series.  I find that pretty impressive actually.  Most teams, outside of Boston and New York and Chicago, would be envious of those numbers.

That's the strength of the fan base that the Jays have built up in the past three seasons.  Of course it will be jeopardized if they tank in 2018.  That's why Shapiro and Atkins have to do a better job of acquiring the right players.  They really have no financial excuses.  Unless there is some "parameter" from the owners, the Front Office should have the financial resources to compete with almost anyone.

I don't accept the cycle-of-contention theory that a team has to avoid acquiring high-quality and badly needed players where there are no guarantees that the team will contend even after adding him.

I still remember the widespread sneering at the Tigers signing Ivan Rodriguez after going 43-119. He changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next decade-plus. Ultimately, it's good to have good players wearing your team's uniform.

Agreed 92-93, in all respects except possibly blame allocation. As I have said since last offseason, the only good choices available this past offseason were to expend significant resources (cash or prospects) to fill significant holes or to start a rebuild/reload by selling some valuable but aging assets. The front office chose neither. I was in favour of adding but, I also understood the argument for selling. I don't understand why those who supported not expending significant assets weren't critical of the front office for not selling. However, I tend to blame Rogers and not Shapiro for this as I believe the strategic plan every offseason is to maximize put a 78-84 win team on the field. I am pretty sure there are massive bonuses that will be paid out by Rogers to those in charge of baseball operations this year. I suspect this was the most successful year ever for the Jays from Rogers' perspective.

Further to the question of walk-up tickets:

Average attendance at the three-game home series against Minnesota at the end of August was even higher.  An average of 41,865 at each game.

"However, I tend to blame Rogers and not Shapiro "

My issue here from the start is that for me shapiro was always rogers'ideal manifestation of their management philosophy. I have trouble seperating the two.

"If by buying you mean signing top free agents and trading prospects for big league help? That depends entirely on how the team looks. If Vlad, Bo, etc, are killing it in the Majors, and the Jays look like they are on the cusp of a strong 3-5 year run with some reinforcements, then that would be a good time. In other words, if the Jays in X amount of years look like the Yankees do now, then that would be the time."

So in 3-5yrs time, then? when all the current FA contracts are already finished?

I don't know why you're presuming that a lot of those tickets were sold to walk-ups, as opposed to being sold well in advance of the game when people were still mesmerized by a team that went to 2 straight ALCSs. I couldn't even get face value for the best seats in level 500.

But I do like how the Yanks are in prime position to spend because their team with dream seasons from so many guys is fighting for a wildcard spot.

Cleveland seems to be doing just fine with very limited free agent spending. Maybe we should be more focused on finding the next Kluber or Carrasco and less fixated on big-ticket free agents like Price to ensure sustained contention.

"....being sold well in advance of the game when people were still mesmerized by a team that went to 2 straight ALCSs..."

So you're referring to August tickets that were sold before the season began?  I'm sure a lot of single-game tickets were sold before the season began, but not enough to create sell-outs or near sell-outs in August.  It's been clear since April that the team would struggle to make the playoffs, yet the Jays were still selling out or nearly selling out for games against boring teams like Tampa and Minnesota in the second half of August.  Several of those games were sold out or almost sold out.

And on the question of TV ratings, here is a tweet from Arash Madani this week:

Arash Madani‏Verified account @ArashMadani Sep 6 Even with their record, the most-watched sporting event daily on Canadian TV (Thursday-Monday) during Labour Day weekend: Blue Jays baseball

Anyway I don't think we disagree on the fundamental point:  the Jays have a huge amount of financial resources, due to the recent improved strength of their fan base, and the Front Office needs to cultivate that fan base by investing in payroll and the entire organizational system to ensure that the fan base remains strong in the long term.

That makes sense GF although I would also maintain that without a continuous supply from the farm system, sustained contention is nearly impossible.

As somebody with a vested interest in watching the tickets market very closely, I don't agree with your assertion that the season tickets + flex packs + single game tickets weren't the reason for strong tickets sold (not "attendance") figures in August.

Also, consider your source on that Madani quote, and the reason why he phrased it how he did without actually citing the figures with a year-over-year comparison. He loves nothing more than to pound his employer's chest when things are going well.

From the CP, indicating a 21% drop through only July (it'll probably get much worse): "Canada’s struggling baseball team, from April through July, averaged 706,300 viewers compared to 895,400 over the same time period last season, according to Sportsnet."

But of course, all these discussions are had within the framework of knowing that Rogers is obfuscating the true value of the team and its revenues so that fans are happy about a 165m payroll comparable to places like Detroit, St. Louis, and Baltimore.

Why all the gnashing of teeth about the Jays being cheap?

They are apparently 4th in payroll: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Some pretty good teams are further down the list.

I still remember the widespread sneering at the Tigers signing Ivan Rodriguez after going 43-119. He changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next decade-plus. Ultimately, it's good to have good players wearing your team's uniform

I was thinking of that very signing yesterday when I said that Dombrowski has had a pretty successful career as a general manager. 

The Morales signing was strange, yes, and indicative of the philosophy of ownership and management, but the truly bizarre part of the season was the failure to acquire a second baseman when Travis went down on June 4, with Goins/Barney clearly not up to the task of replacing him.  The club ought to have known by then that Tulo's health and performance was very much in issue.  A Goins/Barney middle infield was not an acceptable alternative.  

Sportrac has a strange calculation.  Melvin Upton Jr.'s salary (16.5m) is listed entirely on the Blue Jay payroll.  That can't be right. 

The Jays aren't paying Upton + Montero 23m, so even if the rest is correct (and I doubt it is) that takes them out of the top 10. The Jays are 2nd in AL attendance and probably first in TV ratings.

Anthopoulos had a similar problem when Reyes severely injured his ankle. He tried to trade for a SS to replace him but apparently other teams' asking prices were exorbitant.

Shortstop is the hardest position to fill (although the Orioles were able to obtain Beckham when Hardy was unavailable).  Second base is easier because there are so many more players who can play the position. 

yeah B/R has us at $158.7m this year, which is firmly middle of the pack.

You can also subtract Liriano, Upton, Koehler and Smith from those Sportrac salary calculations.  4th is roughly where we could afford to be if we chose though - behind the top tier of Boston, LAD, NYY.  The next grouping includes the likes of Detroit, Texas, San Fran and Washington - we should easily be able to land at the top of that group. 

Maybe we should be more focused on finding the next Kluber or Carrasco and less fixated on big-ticket free agents like Price to ensure sustained contention.

This is a good thought, in theory, but a MO that is hard to succeed with consistently. Kluber and Carrasco, not to mention the likes of Bautista, Encarnacion, Estrada et al, were more a byproduct of extreme good fortune, not good design. That doesn't make the acquisitions bad, just very hard to replicate.

the next kluber/carrasco?

weren't donaldson/bautista/encarnacion the original kluber/carrasco?

Yep, and then the Jays found another bargain slugger in Smoak. Isn't that more palatable than spending a couple of hundred million on the next Prince Fielder?

Pudge/IRod was good even at an old age, was he not. We have Martin. His poor health contributed to the performance of the pitching staff.

Except the pen was really good. Osuna was not as good. The back up C was very weak. Maybe for 2018 we get a healthier Martin and a better back up C.

Too many injuries forced us to play non regulars. Regularly.

Also the OF defense was very bad.

The only stars? that stayed healthy were Bautista & Morales. Smoak can be a star but he was not paid like one.

D Jansen and his new glasses has 179 AA ABs compared to R McGuire's 434 AA ABs. Jansens 2017 was fantastic. McGuires 2017 was injury plagued. He regained his health July 8 and played a lot after that. McGuire hits L and Jansen R.

I find catching very promising for our future. I am hoping that Riley Adams is durable. Martin at 5'10" is the shortest.

If our Vancouver insiders can tell us about his defense again, I forget too easily. Thanks !! Then we will not have to wonder over the next 3 years.

I am not a Vancouver insider but have heard Adams discussed on "Around the Nest" on more than one occasion. The general thought appears to be that his defense is better than average though not outstanding. The only real problem anyone sees is that his height may impair framing but by the time he reaches the majors we may have electronic ball/strike calls in which case framing won't matter.

"....Rogers is obfuscating the true value of the team and its revenues..."

I'm sure this is true.

"....averaged 706,300 viewers compared to 895,400 over the same time period last season..."

Considering the team's horrible start and the fact that most fans had written them off in April, those numbers actually aren't bad.

The Jays have finally done another September promotion:  Leonel Campos. 

Still no Alford, Jansen, Borucki, or anyone else.

The lineup for tonight is all-veteran, with Pearce and Bautista in the outfield,  and Goins at short and Barney at second.  It certainly isn't conventional wisdom.  Normally clubs play the kids when both teams are out of contention and are more reluctant to do so when playing a contending team. 

I guess they're trying to give Stroman the best possible d out there {sigh}

New lineup.  Donaldson out, Urena in.  Barney plays third. 

Donaldson has been pulled from the lineup, Urena in, so one kid gets to play.

And Gibby is back.

"....Normally clubs play the kids when both teams are out of contention..."

The problem is that there are only two "kids" among all the hitters on the roster:  Hernandez and Urena.  (Because the Jays have refused to promote the other prospects.)  And the team has been giving a huge amount of playing time to those two kids.  They played every inning of the last game, they were both in the starting lineup for the second-last game, and Urena played every inning of the 19-inning game.  So we see that Hernandez and Urena are getting a good long look this month, and the kids in the bullpen are getting lots of time too, but where are the other kids? 

The bringer of rain is under the weather.