nice in depth article on Stroman's quality and distribution of contact, and what that means for him going forward:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-is-extreme/

Stroman is a fine fielder, and this helps with the ground balls too, above and beyond exit velocity. 

Dang. That is one sorry lineup today. Donaldson, Smoak, Pearce and 6 warm bodies. A "hot" month from one or two of these guys might make the difference.

Major leaguers are surprisingly lousy at run downs, too often chasing the guy in the wrong direction.

It is really too bad that Carrera wasn't in the game from the outset. 

Should have posted here, TJ House up, Mayza down.

TJ House up

That's pitcher #29 for the season. Last year saw 27 plus Barney and Goins.

It's a perfect day for a tandem Tepesch/House start, especially with the day off on Monday. I'm thinking 2 innings for Tepesch and then 4 for House.

Awesome, another guy having a mediocre AAA season with no velocity.  I'd prefer Beliveau to House, but at this point, it's all just grasping at straws. 

29 pitchers is crazy. 

Ramirez is the pitcher I would like to see soon.

Me too Mike, I was mentioning interchangeable AAAA guys as I just don't think the FO is willing to run rookies out into our WC 'race'.  They consistently prefer vets - guys with big league experience like Refsnyder, House, Aoki, Maille, etc - even if their track records are dismal.  Ramirez etc won't show up till September, I assume. 

Frankly, I think our best shot at the playoffs comes from mixing some rookies into the lineup / bullpen pretty aggressively. 

Refsnyder seems to have the yips when it comes to short throws.

The Joe West suspension was ridiculous. But umpires seem to have the same accountability as tenured professors, so their white wristband solidarity is laughable. In the real world, if you were as incompetent as Angel Hernandez or CB Bucknor, you wouldn't be in your job for very long.

I would have pinch-
hit Morales for Tepesch there.

To keep Morales out of a doubleplay?

Ideal situation. Bases loaded, two out. And I would rather have House pitching than Tepesch.

Hey look! Planes! Squirrel! Squirrel!

That really couldn't have been played any worse by Barney on that go-ahead single. If he misses it entirely, Refsnyder keeps in in the infield. If he gloves it, there's no play at first, but still, the go-ahead run does not score. Instead, he tips it past Refsnyder to the outfield, allowing Happ to score. Not his best defensive game with that throw into the stands on the Heyward force out.

If we are talking Retool instead of rebuild would a Pillar for Joc Pederson trade make sense?

They are essentially polar opposite players with Pillar having strong contact rates and low power versus Pederson having poor contact rates and great power, but Pederson might be a platoon player at this point in time.

Personally I think at the very least a platoon of Pederson and Teoscar Hernandez would be better than having just Pillar in center and best case an outfield of Pederson, Alford, Hernandez and Pompey has some potential.

As much as Pillar has struggled over the past few months he does still add value to the team (off/def). I just don't see that from Pederson (aside from potential power).

Given that Bautista has turned into a pumpkin I wouldn't mind seeing an outfield of Smith/Pearce, Pillar/Alford and Hernandez in Sept.

Not sure what to make of Zeke's lack of playing time given his offensive numbers. Maybe he bought Gibby Molsons instead of Buds on a run to the store?

maybe Zeke is not in the plans for 2018?

Bautista slowly inching his way to the Mendoza line. I'm ready for some young blood.

Blue Jays acquire RHP Tom Koehler,

maybe Zeke is not in the plans for 2018?

If you are trying to maximize his trade value, sitting him out twice of every three games isn't a great way to do it. 

His lack of playing time won't help him in arbitration, if you want to look at it from a hyper-Machiavellian angle. 

Koehler, under control for another season making 5.75 mil. Osman Gutierrez going the other way,

I hope that they don't have any intention of using Koehler in 2018, other than as a 6th/7th starter.

"I hope that they don't have any intention of using Koehler in 2018, other than as a 6th/7th starter."

Koehler is probably a fine 5th/6thstarter. He had 3.6 WAR in his last four years as a regular starter throwing around 160 innings a year. The Jays have had way too many starts this year from pitchers who had no business starting.

If we are talking Retool instead of rebuild would a Pillar for Joc Pederson trade make sense?

That is intriguing. Both are entering their first arb year. Pillar is 3 years older, seems to be locked in as an 80-something wrRC+ "offensive" player, and has slipped on defense, though is still a plus player, especially at the price. Pederson has taken a step back this year and was just demoted to make room for Granderson.

From LA's perspective, this makes sense. Pillar would give them a reliable glove in CF. From the Jays' perspective, they'd be rolling the dice that Pederson could rebound and deliver on his power potential. Pederson is actually striking out less than in the past, and is suffering a .240 BABIP, so a return to form would not be out of the question.

I'd seriously consider this offer. In this era where all teams have analytics departments, it would be interesting to see if the Dodgers' valuation of Pillar aligns with BRef and FG. They might well be the ones to say no first to such a proposal.

If the Jays can non-tender Koehler after the season and work out a cheap deal with him for 2018, then he's a fine long relief option/spot starter. The team needs SP depth. Koehler isn't particularly good, but aside from 12 starts in 2017, he has never been below replacement level like most of the team's depth has been this season. He is a below average starter who can eat up innings. That will have some value as long as he is not making much.

Koehler is on the 40 man and on the payroll. So for the rest of this year we have 4 choices to fill 2 rotation spots. Rowley, Tepesch, Biagini and Koehler.

IMO they could all get starts the rest of the way.

gibby laying it on the line with today's lineup.

awesome.

save any criticism of this for the guys who gave him this roster.

That was a pretty good Pillar play.

Donaldson looks fine at shortstop.  Heck, if Honus Wagner can do it, why can't Josh?

now all we need to do is play martin at 2b, and our IF issues are over.

The replay officials got that one wrong.  The ball definitely got Lopez' foot and changed direction back towards the catcher.  Definitely not the usual bounce on a slider. 

Heads-up baserunning by Donaldson in the 10th.  What a pleasure it is to watch him!

helluva series by Pillar topped off with a clutch game savint catch and potential game winning rbi. him getting hot again like in April would be a huge help

however this one ends, even with all the inuries this has been a super tight winnable series against a supposed stacked team.

Looks like the message was "throw your effing fastball."

I miss Russell Martin.

I miss Roberto Osuna.

Didn't have it all the way.

What more can even be said about this ridiculous season.

If anyone still had hope for this season, then this series should put the nail in that coffin.

my lord that was painful.

Eight blown saves - more than anyone else in the majors, one in every five opportunities - is just too damn many. The last Blue Jay to blow this many saves in a season was Miguel Batista in 2005. And three of Batista's blown saves came when he entered the game in the middle of an inning with somebody else's runner(s) on base. All of Osuna's have come when he started an inning clean.

Only two Toronto pitchers have blown more saves in a season - Duane Ward had 12 in 1989, most of them occurring in the 6th or 7th inning, and most of them involving inherited runners. And Joey McLaughlin had 11 in 1983, and again in the majority of those he entered in the eighth or earlier, with people on base.

Don't worry, I will soon post some useless statistic that shows that Roberto Osuna is the best closer in baseball.

In my memory this will probably go down as the Raffy Lopez Game. Not in any kind of good way.

Gotta be the worse inning of his career. Including getting hit in the head and the abdomen by foul balls.
That's after being hit by a pitch which the video reviewers chose to ignore.

Osuna is an excellent reliever but his struggles do highlight why he is and may be a guy to consider moving. In my view, high leverage relievers can become overvalued (relative to both their limited innings and their inherent variability (both positive and negative)). The blown saves may have reduced his perceived value, but I would argue that in the past offseason Osuna's perceived value exceeded his actual value. I say this as someone who thinks Osuna is an excellent reliever, but I would have zero issues with dealing him when there is a market for him.

Wow.  My PVR shut off right before Osuna took the mound (because I don't learn from past mistakes), so I checked here to see the post game celebrations .... what the heck was wrong with Osuna?  What an Ugly line. 

In previous seasons Osuna has gotten into some trouble with the long ball late in the season. This has not been the case this year. At least not yet. He is keeping the ball in the park and still has excellent peripherals. I have not watched most of his blown saves but seems like he has been pretty unlucky in a lot of them.

And then today's game. I mean he gets two k's and gives up one hard hit ball.

Overall i don't think his "struggles" are much to worry about, painful an experience as it has been.

Osuna is someone the team can trade regardless of team direction. You just don't know how long he will be elite, as relievers are extremely volatile year to year, and this is probably the peak of his value. I would have no issues with trading him depending on the return, and it has nothing to do with the blown saves. If the Jays want to rebuild and compete at the same time, then they are going to have to be creative in how they add talent to the roster. If they can make a killing off trading a closer, then it is something they have to at least consider.

This season is rivalling 1995 for the number of weird, demoralizing losses.

If Roberto Osuna has lost his Four-Seamer, he's not much better than anyone else in the 'Pen. Is it time we find a new closer or is it too premature?

If Roberto Osuna has lost his Four-Seamer

Don't think that's the issue - he threw a couple of very nice ones immediately after Gibbons came out to talk to him. Sometimes it's as if he's proud of his breaking ball and wants to show it off. Or he thinks throwing his fastball is somehow unsporting.

Did anyone else wonder why they had Bautista playing even with the bag with the bases loaded and no one out back in the third. If he's at normal depth, there's a good chance he starts a GDP on Almora's hit. I assume they were worried about the bunt, but I don't think that's a big part of Almora's skill set.

Eight blown saves = 3.5 GBL for First Place in AL East and holding the 1st WC with a 3 Game lead. Tell me again how bad this team is?!?!?!!'

Tell me again how bad this team is?

They are 59-65, and have been outscored by 81 runs.

How often does a player bunt with the bases loaded and nobody out? Not very. The bunter has to be quite proficient at it because the pitcher can go home and if it's a really bad bunt, you can end up with a 1-2-3 DP.

I find it amazing how many are blaming Osuna for this loss - he got 3 outs but the catcher couldn't catch strike 3...twice. If he had then no runs and a save. I've yet to see the 2 K's but generally speaking if a catcher can't catch strike 3 that catcher isn't long for pro-ball.

Just watched those 2 plays and the first I can understand it was a crazy bounce off the plate but the 2nd was inexcusable. Gotta figure that messed up Osuna's head a bit too. He had to be scared to throw low to this waste of space of a catcher. Why not just ask Zaun to come down from the booth he can't do much worse.

The second dropped 3rd strike appeared to be an off target cutter.
No excuse for not throwing to first in time though.

The Cubs practice the safety squeeze, so that's not a dangerous play for them.

It's nice to see runners hustling off on dropped 3rd strikes, something the Jays hitters rarely do.
Goins just watched the catcher recover the ball earlier on while jogging on the spot.

osuna right now reminds me of stroman in the middle of last year - just fallen a bit too much in love with certain pitches, which is always a risk when you have so many pitches to choose from.

osuna right now reminds me of stroman in the middle of last year - just fallen a bit too much in love with certain pitches, which is always a risk when you have so many pitches to choose from.

I had that same thought. That, plus some bad luck has made this stretch for Osuna look worse than it really is. He's still missing a lot of bats and striking guys out, has the best FIP and WHIP of his career, and lowest opponents OPS, and that's with a much higher babip than previous years. IOW I don't think there's much wrong with Osuna, like Stroman last year.

I was thinking about the AL MVP award race, and it looks like Trout is going to have another plausible case for it despite missing all that time.  With the solar eclipse today, I thought that it would be a good time to check up on the Millville Meteor vs. the Commerce Comet.  Trout's line with 6 weeks left in his age 25 season is 3910 PAs, .308/.410/.568, OPS+ 173, bWAR 53.9.  Mantle's line after his age 25 season was 4114 PAs, .316/.427/.564, OPS+ 174, bWAR 52.2.  Basically a draw.  If you're going to follow a player very closely, Mantle is a good one to choose. 

I never watched the game, but it doesn't seem to me like Osuna was that bad.

Osuna struck out the first and fourth batter. The third batter hit a ground ball to second base. Should have been an easy save.

"Don't worry, I will soon post some useless statistic that shows that Roberto Osuna is the best closer in baseball."

Not the best, but pretty fricken awesome.

Since 2015:

RP fWAR

1.K.Jansen (29): 7.7
2.A.Miller (32): 7.0
3.D.Betances (29): 6.7
4.A.Chapman (29): 6.3
5.R.Osuna (22): 5.8
6.C.Kimbrel (29): 5.7
7.Z.Britton (29): 4.9
8.K.Giles (26): 4.8
9.C.Allen (28): 4.7
10.W.Davis (31): 4.2


ra9WAR

1.A.Miller (32): 8.3
2.K.Jansen (29): 7.1
3.W.Davis (31): 7.0
4.Z.Britton (29): 7.0
5.D.Betances (29): 6.4
6.A.Chapman (29): 5.6
7.R.Osuna (22): 5.5
8.C.Kimbrel (29): 5.5
9.W.Harris (32): 5.5
10.B.Brach (31): 5.4




2017 fWAR

1.C.Kimbrel (29): 3.0
2.K.Jansen (29): 2.8
3.R.Osuna (22): 2.6
4.C.Knebel (25): 2.5
5.A.Miller (32): 2.0

I too think that Lopez was largely to blame. Don't be surprised if he is DFA tomorrow and Maile activated. If not tomorrow, only a matter of days.

Uglyone, I agree with your baseline point, that Osuna is an excellent relief pitcher. However, I think this helps illustrate a broader point, which is relief pitchers are generally ( there are exceptional circumstances where the team is a legitimate World Series contender and relief innings are at a premium) overvalued. I understand WAR has its limitations for relievers, but your table suggests that an elite reliever is still worth only roughly as much as a league average position player.

I agree he should be starting.

That being said, he's probably been our 4th best player this year, behind Stroman Smoak Donaldson.

The strongest case for trading Osuna at peak value to accelerate a retool is his history with TJ surgery. If he needs another one he's done. If he doesn't pitch above 95/96 MPH he's no longer elite. His frame sticks out from other guys on that list. Osuna isn't a giant.

Interesting question on this Jays fan survey (the bottom one):

Has owners who reinvest in the team rather than taking profit for themselves or subsidizing other businesses.

Edited.

I'd vote between not very and somewhat to the question about loyalty to players and between very important and extremely important for the profit one. I don't care if the Jays owners take some of the profit off the table as long as they invest enough to have payroll comparable with the very top payroll teams - not merely the middle of the pack ones.

That's a weird question. Coaches might be loyal to their players. I don't see why the GM would have to be.
I don't want loyalty towards mediocre players. I want them replaced with better ones.

Osuna has by far the worst ERA of his career, and it is basically entirely due to a completely silly 375 BABIP in August and 345 in July. Last night the dude struck out two guys who reached base anyway, something that basically never happens at this level of baseball.

My mind is boggled that anyone thinks that trading him now would be trading him at "peak value." You would be selling low with him having these kind of numbers thanks to a bunch of weird flukey things happening this year.

The first question is basically "how much longer should we hold onto Jose Bautista."

Answer - " For 38 more games."

My belief is that now that management has changed in AZ most teams are on to BABIP. With Osuna more concerning are velo drops which can be seen on the field and his struggle with anxiety which can not.

Trading him would be a terrible idea. He's young enough to contribute for years to come.

Another TJ wouldn't be a career ender at this point and no one seems to be able to have a way to predict or protect against them. I hope that either a) someone can convince him to try starting and he takes to the role or b) the team will get a manager who is predisposed toward using him for multiple innings at the back end. Lock him up through arb and maybe 1 year of FA so that SV totals aren't an issue and see if he can do his best Duane Ward impression.

a completely silly 375 BABIP in August and 345 in July.

It was .375 this past April as well. Whereas in May and June, of course, he was utterly unhittable.

But I don't think those ugly BABiPs are completely silly. They aren't driven by groundballs finding holes, and he doesn't give up hits on fly balls landing in between the outfielders. It's being driven by line drives. Osuna actually has a lower BABiP on groundballs, flyballs and line drives than the Jays staff as a whole. But he gives up more line drives than the other guys, and consequently they account for a much larger share of the hits against him (57.5% of the hits against Osuna, 45.8% of the hits against the staff as a whole - which includes Osuna, of course. Otherwise the difference would be even greater.)

You know what I think? He's 22 years old! He's got a great arm, he can throw unhittable pitches (sometimes, alas, they turn out to be uncatchable as well), he likes the job and he seems to have the temperament for it. But he's 22 years old. He's still a baby. It would be weird if there weren't growing pains.

Lock him up through arb and maybe 1 year of FA so that SV totals aren't an issue and see if he can do his best Duane Ward impression.

Not sure if you really want to use Duane Ward as a role model :-)  I'm pretty sure Osuna's pitched a lot more than Ward during his teens, and Ward's arm basically fell off after 6 full seasons of relief. Osuna's finishing up full season of relief #3 - using that model, he's a ticking time bomb..

If he's happy being a closer, I say keep him there. Starting probably puts way more stress on his arm..

"My mind is boggled that anyone thinks that trading him now would be trading him at "peak value." You would be selling low with him having these kind of numbers thanks to a bunch of weird flukey things happening this year."


Osuna is about to put up a 3 WAR season out of the pen. Expecting him to keep performing like this consistently over the next three years is asking a lot. It could happen, or he could regress like many other relievers who lose some mileage on their FB after a few years, or get hurt, etc. Osuna having already had TJS and some issues pop up here and there (the 2016 playoffs) makes him a bit of a time bomb for me. If the Jays keep him for three years, then that's fine, but if they are going to move him, then there won't be many better times than this winter. The ERA is misleading, and I think most GM's in today's landscape would know that.

"trade him before he gets injured!" is silly, imo.

It's not so much 'trading him before he gets hurt', it's more realizing the shelf-life of the majority of relievers, especially relievers as young as Osuna. The aging curve for relievers in general is not great. Obviously there are always exceptions, and for the Jays sake I hope Osuna is one of them, but if some team is offering a great package for him this winter that makes the team better short and long-term, then they would have to consider it given the market for RP's.

I agree with Griffin's latest article:
http://thechronicleherald.ca/sports/1496774-griffin-a-solution-for-the-jays%E2%80%99-left-side

And think this sort of flexibility (and so far not much push back from the players) is a definite plus for Gibbons managerial prowess.

For amusment only, Roberto Osuna's age comps from BBRef: Lloyd Allen, Pedro Martinez (yes, that one), David Palmer, Tommie Sisk, Victor Cruz, Doyle Alexander, Larry Bearnarth, Hub Bruett, Stan Baumgartner, and Wilbur Cooper.  Well above the CRTC's Can-con requirements with Martinez, Palmer, Cruz, Alexander and Bearnarth. 

There haven't been any successful closers who started at age 20.  The All-time leader for saves through age 22 is....Roberto Osuna with 88.  #2 is Terry Forster with 70, #3 is Huston Street with 60, #4 is Billy McCool with 48.  Neftali Feliz is 5th.  None of #6-#10 was a huge success, including Victor Cruz.  Gregg Olson did have a nice run for 6 years.  Most of the career closers got a later start often because they bounced in and out of the rotation (Rivera, Gossage, Wilhelm), or in the case of Trevor Hoffman because of a late conversion to pitching. 

They should absolutely listen to offers on Osuna.

That does NOT mean dump him.

It means that teams overpay closers. Let them overpay the Blue Jays.

"it's more realizing the shelf-life of the majority of relievers, especially relievers as young as Osuna."

this generalization doesn't work at all in this case, though.

first off, you are insinuating that relievers are more at risk of injury than starters, which is just not right.

secondly, in terms of performance, you are using the "average reliever" as a model for Osuna, when the "average reliever" is a failed starter with maybe 1 or 2 mlb quality pitches, for whome even the slightest tapering off of stuff kills their career, which accounts for their high flameout rate. that kind of pitcher has no bearing whatsoever on a kid like Osuna, who has top end starting talent and arsenal.


If we are going to insist on keeping Osuna in the bullpen for health reasons, we should still make sure to project him going forward based on an upper tier SP talent curve, not an average fungible RP curve.

How many RP's that started in their early-20's (let's say 20-22) continued to have long successful careers as RP's? I know some started as relievers and then became starters (Sale), but I'd imagine the relievers that started in the pen and stayed there did not have the type of sustained level of excellence (1.0 WAR and above) consistently. More than 3 years? More than 5? I'd be interested to see what the actual numbers are. Osuna is a weird case since he started in the pen at 20 and stayed there, while previously having very limited innings in the minors, so there's no good comparison for him. I don't think his SP repertoire really makes a difference though unless they convert him to a SP, which doesn't look like it will happen.

Don't count out Carlos Ramirez as the Jays next closer...whenever that may be. I suspect we will see him in September.

Since Jansen will obviously be added to the 40 man as well, maybe he can be called up also so we can see his work behind the plate for ourselves. It would be a learning experience for him even if he does not play much. No need to keep Lopez around or even Montero for that matter though I suspect the latter will hang around in case of injury or Martin being out longer.

It's interesting that the club has been using Ramirez in 2+ inning appearances. 

Ramirez has now pitched 33 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run... anyone know the Jay's record for scoreless streaks in a season?  If he keeps this up, it's getting close to Hershiser territory. 

"But I don't think those ugly BABiPs are completely silly. "

They are.

You think those line drives should be finding gloves? Because that's been the problem.