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Features Oakland at Toronto July 24-27

The second worst teams in the American League play four games at the RC. The A's and Jays are tied with 44-54 records, with only the White Sox behind them. Toronto are ten games out of first place, the A's are 21 as Houston are pulling away.

It is one week to the trade deadline so expect lots of trade chatter this week. The Jays tradeable options are not the most in demand players so expect the Jays to be quiet until the weekend.



The match-ups are:

Monday at 7:07 pm - Chris Smith vs. Francisco Liriano. Smith is 36 years old and has two major league starts this year, and in his career.

Tuesday at 7:07 pm - Sonny Gray vs. Cesar Valdez. Valdez could be used in long relief on Monday.

Wednesday at 7:07 pm - Paul Blackburn vs. Marco Estrada. Blackburn is 23 years old and he has made four starts

Thursday at 12:37 pm (Camp day) - Sean Manaea vs. Marcus Stroman

Posted by Gerry on Monday, July 24 2017 @ 05:09 PM EDT.
Oakland at Toronto July 24-27 | 208 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ducey - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#345778) #
Tank Battles

Oakland puts in their 36 yr old call up spot starter, and the Jays respond with its own 32 year old call up spot starter. Never mind the fact that our starters in game 1 and 3 are sporting ERA's of 6.15 and 5.52. Aside from Stroman (who might have a blister) the Jays are hard to lose to right now.

Personally, I am at the point where I am hoping for a poor finish to enhance the draft next year.
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scottt - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#345779) #
I am hoping for a shake up and a good performance in September.
Last year's September slump ended in May.

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scottt - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#345780) #
Harrell was outrighted to make room for Nick Tepesch who will likely start a game for Toronto soon.

Lowrie is batting 5th for the A's. Where would he be batting if he was a Jays? 8th in front of Pillar? 2nd?

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hypobole - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#345782) #
"Personally, I am at the point where I am hoping for a poor finish to enhance the draft next year."

You must really like Liriano then.
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bpoz - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#345784) #
hypobole, are you hoping for a higher pick in the draft or a bigger budget.

I like the bigger budget.
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PeterG - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#345785) #
Tepesch is not on TO roster. Harrell was DFA last week.
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hypobole - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#345786) #
bpoz - don't think anyone truly likes a higher draft pick.

I like a contending team.

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jerjapan - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#345787) #
It's great that Billy Bean is the first commissioner for inclusion, but that interview was embarrassing ... at no point were terms like gay or homophobia used, and it took about a minute before Bean used the term LGBT.  For many causal fans - fans that don't know the Pillar issue, or Bean, or even the phrase LGBT - there was no acknowledgement that homophobia was being addressed.  Shameful attempt at equity. 
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Ducey - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#345788) #
"Contending" caught the last train to the coast.

As the Jays don't really have any prospects to try out, one good thing to come from this season would be a top 5ish pick.
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hypobole - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#345789) #
If we end up with a top 5 pick, will only be the 3rd time in 36 years.
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hypobole - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#345790) #
Too many games this year where a laugh track would be appropriate. Pearce doing a Mr. Bean tonight.
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Magpie - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#345791) #
Gotta like how Tabler and Martinez managed not to mention Tabler's own production with the bases loaded (career numbers .489/.505/.693). 'Twas legendary back in the day.
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jerjapan - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#345797) #
As the Jays don't really have any prospects to try out,

That's a silly comment.  I guess you could argue the definition of 'prospect', but in my opinion, the following prospects could be tried out this year:  Pompey, Alford, Smith Jr., Fields, Ramirez - okay, that covers the OF.  Rowley, Borucki, Jansen, McGuire, Leb .... off the top of my head.  There are plenty of prospects to try out. 

Haters gonna hate I guess.
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dalimon5 - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#345798) #
Jer,

"Haters gonna hate?" Your rant on Beane's interview had the same vibe.
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hypobole - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#345799) #
Harold Ramirez has a poor defensive reputation as well as a 76 wRC+ in AA.
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Ducey - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#345800) #
Not intending to hate.

Can you see any of the guys you listed coming in and making an impact the beginning of next year? Most would say the Jays best prospects are lower down.
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uglyone - Monday, July 24 2017 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#345801) #
yeah i could see pompey Alford jansen contributing. maybe smith.
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Ducey - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#345802) #
Agreed on Smith, although he isn't a top prospect. And Pompey and Alford can't stay healthy.
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Spifficus - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#345803) #
The main question for Alford would be if MLB time would hinder his education or accelerate it. Given his history (and knowing none of the close details needed to actually make the assessment), I could definitely see a case for it accelerating his skill development. Of course, us fans won't know until he's given the opportunity and get to see if he's over his head and spiralling, or shows a strong foundation.
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hypobole - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#345804) #
Getting a Top 5 pick may not be as good as it seems.

We've picked in those spots 7 times and only the 1st (Moseby #2 in '78) and last (Wells #5 in '97) were real successes, each over 25 bWAR careers.

After Moseby we picked #'s 3, 2, 5, 2 the next 4 years and all duds. 0.4 WAR total- 3 of the 4 never made the majors.

And then there was Billy Koch #4 in 1996. Awful 1st round.
The 1st 3 guys career WAR's between 13 and 7.2. Koch gave us 4.3 in his 3 seasons and another 1.3 after he was traded. Only 2 of the guys picked from #5 to #17 had better career totals than Koch. Pick #18, Texas took college pitcher R. A Dickey.

Oh, and the guy the Giants took #4 before the Jays chose Vernon Wells #5? Jason Grilli.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#345805) #
new mlb.com top 30 out tonight: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=tor

my only major quibble is jansen, of course. also think they're a bit low on guys like maese and rios, maybe high on guys like pentecost.

but don't get worked up about guys dropping down the list...it's mostly because the new guys are graded very well. the top 15 all received 50fv grades at least, with bo/alford at 55 and vlad at 60.

jansen only got a 45 and obviously i think he's an easy 50.
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Glevin - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:28 AM EDT (#345806) #
"That's a silly comment. I guess you could argue the definition of 'prospect', but in my opinion, the following prospects could be tried out this year: Pompey, Alford, Smith Jr., Fields, Ramirez - okay, that covers the OF. Rowley, Borucki, Jansen, McGuire, Leb .... off the top of my head. There are plenty of prospects to try out. "

What the poster was talking about was having a potential impact player coming up the way the Red Sox could bring up Devers or the Yankees Frazier or the Jays will have when they can call up Vlad. Those are the guys fans get excited about seeing. Most of those guys you mention are not real prospects just guys who haven't played in the majors much. Alford and Jansen could contribute next year if they stay healthy but they strike me as players we could see in the second half next year if things go well.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#345808) #
"...Your rant on Beane's interview..."

It wasn't a rant.  He made some legitimate criticisms of how the interview was conducted.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 06:48 AM EDT (#345809) #
"....The main question for Alford would be if MLB time would hinder his education or accelerate it..."

I think there's a pretty good chance that we'll see Alford on the major-league roster again in September when rosters expand, if he's healthy, since he's already been called up once this year.  The major-league experience will be useful for him, and the minor-league seasons will be over.   Of course it doesn't guarantee that he'll crack the lineup next season.  Lots of young prospects look good in September and then flounder the following year.  But Alford remains a good prospect and I think the Jays are keen to see what they have in him.

Not sure about Jansen. Gibbons has already made it clear that they want Maile back on the roster in September, and a 4th catcher would be redundant -- unless they decide to completely give up on Montero.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#345810) #
Well, I posted a link to an article from the guy who drafted Vernon Wells earlier in the year. He explained that they were terrified somebody like Grilli would fall to them because they didn't have the money to sign them.

Different times.

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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#345811) #
Well, they should completely give up on Montero.

There's a lot of prospects who could become regular or fail.
Smith didn't look worse than Carrera.

They A's are trying hard to lose all their remaining games. A sweep is not out of the question here.

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Chuck - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#345812) #
They A's are trying hard to lose all their remaining games.

That's exactly what I thought when I saw Chapman start his double play. That man is trying to lose!

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hypobole - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#345813) #
Yeah, the draft now is much different. With the bonus pools, no team "cheaps out". And having a larger bonus pool is what makes having a higher pick that much more advantageous.

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Magpie - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#345815) #
Your rant on Beane's interview had the same vibe.

Just to be clear - the interview was with Billy Bean, the former 1980s major league outfielder who came out as gay after his career ended and has since become MLB's first Ambassador for Inclusion. Whereas Billy Beane is the former 1980s major league outfielder and long-time GM of the Oakland A's.
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bpoz - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#345816) #
Thanks Magpie, I did not know that there were 2 Billie B.

The bigger bonus pool is what I was referring to regarding the high draft pick.
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Gerry - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#345817) #
Chapman seems to have a gun at third. He made some nice throws to first.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#345818) #
Thanks Magpie, I did not know that there were 2 Billie B

For clarity both Billy Bean and Billy Beane spell their first names with a y.  The only two famous people I know who use the spelling Billie are Billie Jean King and Billie Holiday, both of whom had a thing or two to say about prejudice back in the day.  But the song of the day is not Strange Fruit, rather it is a seasonal favourite of really old people and maybe the occasional hipster.  It is guaranteed to be on the playlist at my favourite sushi place. 
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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#345819) #
Guerrero is listed as a 1B and Bichette as a 2B. Warmoth as a SS and Pentecost as a 1B.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#345821) #
glevin - alford is a prospect to get excited about. and as for your boston example the last couple of "exciting" callups - moncada/beni - kinda fizzled. we'll see if devers is more exciting.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#345822) #
Sorry if 'haters' overstated the case.  Where I come from, that's a pretty casual term for someone with a negative opinion on something, - but I don't think anyone here is actually being hateful!  It's just a pretty depressing time to be a Jays fan right now. 

Of course, the prospects I mentioned fit into multiple categories - potential bench guys, potential regulars, and at least 3 guys I think with potential to be above average regulars in Jansen, Alford and Pompey.  Agreed with Ugly, the rankings are much too low on Jansen, he's borderline top 10 IMO.  But don't sleep on the bench guys - Barnes and Tepera would have been in that category just last year.  No reason not to use the Buffalo shuttle for position players as well as relievers - Leb and Fields could be quality bench players.  And if Rowley and Borucki continue to pitch well, they could be contenders for the end of the rotation next year, or a 6th / 7th starter role at least.  I made light of our need for depth starters often throughout last offseason, but this year has clearly proved me wrong. 

As for the Bean interview, I will react strongly against that 100 times out of 100.  Baseball doesn't always 'mean' something, but at times it does.  I'm not sure who was responsible for the pinkwashing, but that's what it was.  If my mom had watched that clip, she would have had no idea what they were talking about.   

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Mike Green - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#345824) #
Benintendi has absolutely not fizzled.  He just turned 23 and he now has almost a full season under his belt (despite an injury).  He is a fine player already with a good balance of skills and plenty of room to grow.  It would have been delightful to have him on the 2017 Blue Jays who lack such players on their club.  Anthony Alford has almost all the skills, but his ability to make consistent contact has been an issue so far in his minor league career.  He made a lot of progress on that issue early in the year in New Hampshire, but has struggled with it upon his return from the wrist injury (perhaps understandably).

The ability to make consistent contact is, in my opinion, the single most important skill.  It is not enough on its own, but it is very hard to succeed without it.  Anthony Gose would be Exhibit A in the case for the proposition. 



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christaylor - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#345825) #
I'm surprised -- it seems like he mentioned it every time for the first few years he did play-by-play. I was watching the game at that point with the sound off (usually watch the other team's broadcast on mlb.tv).

As bad as this team is on the field, I think one of the biggest upgrades to the fan experience Rogers could make is in the broadcast booth. Poaching David Cone from would be a nice start. Shulman for play-by-play. One can dream.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#345830) #
beni has been decent as a marginally below average starter, but that's a far cry from the superprospect ROY candidate that fans were excited about.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#345831) #
Benintendi might be a fine player, but I'd argue that the Red Sox are fighting themselves by putting a centerfielder in LF in that stadium where a power bat has so much more value than a good defender. 

Benintendi has 1.1 WAR while Travis Shaw has 3.2. Didn't they just trade the wrong guy?

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jerjapan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#345833) #
I wonder if we could move Morales to a team like KC?  We'd have to take on a big chunk of the contract, but if there's no strong market for Smoak, that might be the best chance we have to break the DH logjam.  They've got Brandon Moss DHing and he's performing worse than Morales.  They just traded for Cahill, so they are clearly trying to take one last run at the playoffs. 

It would be pretty unique to write off $20 million or so in the first year of a FA contract,  but Morales is clearly a sunk cost at this point, and KC is maybe the only team I can see him helping at the moment.  It's similar to taking on the Liriano contract - if you can't get the FAs that you want, you can still flex your financial muscles by taking on, or paying for, bad contracts.



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Mike Green - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#345834) #
The Red Sox have Betts in RF, and he has even more range than Benintendi.  JBJ has at least as much.  It's a helluva defensive outfield at home and on the road.  The Red Sox' weaknesses have been at the corners, at DH and behind the plate, and Benintendi can't really help them with that. 

I ran a Play Index on Benitendi to find outfielders who had at least 500 PAs at ages 21 and 22 with an OPS+ between 100 and 110 (Benintendi's is 105) and less than 100 strikeouts. I got 23 comps- post-war players included Gus Bell, Bill White Dan Driessen, Bill Buckner, Pete Rose, Richie Ashburn, Terry Puhl, Nick Markakis and Steve Kemp. Amazingly, there were absolutely no flame-outs and almost all were good players at ages 25-30.. 



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Glevin - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#345835) #
I'd get more exited about Alford if I thought he was more ready. If he comes back and hits well in AA and stays healthy, then yes, he'd be the sort of prospect that should get a buzz but he's not there right now. Too many injuries, too few ABs above A ball. And as Mike said, Benintendi is hardly a bust. He's the same age as Alford and already has 1.6 WAR in his first 500 PAs. He's already a decent player but has a lot of room to grow. Fangraphs has him as the 26th most trade value In all of baseball.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#345836) #
The Red Sox have the new killer B's - Betts, Bradley Jr., Boegarts, Benintendi.  A pretty darn impressive core.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#345838) #
Put Marco Estrada on the Royals, with that plus outfield defence & big ballpark and he will be a positive contributor - the Royals should make a play for Estrada.

I don't think the FO will eat all that money and admit their mistake with the length of the Morales contract - however,in the offseason, with the Royals likely losing many FA and rebuilding, I could see the Royals taking Morales (2/23) for Ian Kennedy (3/49), the Royals saving money and the Jays getting a guy who can pitch 175-200 innings (the Home runs are a problem). If not, the Steve Pearce may have to go.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#345841) #
I'm sorry but I'm not familiar with what was so odious about the "Billy Bean interview" - was the objection that Mr. Bean is gay - that seems silly.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#345842) #
Agreed 85, Estrada might be a good fit in KC, although they did just add Cahill.  I'd do Morales for Kennedy, not sure the Royals would, but Steve Pearce is the most likely position player moved - guys like him always have some value at the trade deadline, and given the positional redundancy we have, it's addition by subraction.
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Paul D - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#345845) #
Interesting tidbit from twitter:

@james_in_to
Highest % of PA ending in GIDP with runners on first and second:
TOR 2017: 12.8%
BOS 1983: 10.3%
TOR 1977: 10.0%
(No other teams > 10%)
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hypobole - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#345846) #
So we're good at something.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#345848) #
"....I'm not familiar with what was so odious about the 'Billy Bean interview'...."

I thought Jer explained it quite well.  I didn't see the interview myself, but Jer's explanation was quite clear and coherent.  He said it was an interview on the subject of homophobia in baseball, in which the interviewer was too polite and diplomatic to address the issues directly, so the ordinary viewer would have found it difficult to understand even the subject of the interview.

In other words, MLB has (rightly) established an office for LGBT inclusion, but MLB and the official broadcaster are afraid to tackle the issues in a clear public manner -- presumably for fear of "offending" some section of its audience and fan base.   This would be like an interview with Jackie Robinson in which nobody dared to address the problem of racism.  It shows that progress is still slow in this area.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#345849) #
Here is the breakdown on the 1st and 2nd team disaster by player with opportunities (i.e. less than 2 out)

Player Opps GIDP
Bautista 15 7
Morales 15 5
Martin 11 3
Barney 10 2
Pillar 10 2
Donaldson 10 1
Pearce 9 3
Goins 5 2
Carrera 5 0
Smoak 18 0 (but 4HRs)

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SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#345850) #
Kennedy will likely provide more value than Morales over the next 2-3 years, but enough to add double the salary? That's a tough one. It is the right idea though. Find a team that could use a 1B/DH and has an overpaid SP that they would be willing to flip. My thought with the Royals was Morales for Moss with the Jays eating up the difference in 2017-18 salary. That would mean the Royals would have to take all of Morales' 2019 salary though. So maybe not.

I can't see the Jays going with the Smoak-Pearce-Morales alignment again next year so they definitely have to choose between Pearce and Morales. Hopefully they can move Kendrys, but I doubt it.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#345851) #
Chapman seems to have a gun at third. He made some nice throws to first.

First year my 10-year son played 3B he missed the first baseman and the ball flew out of the park, across the street and over somebody's fence. Too bad he wasn't any good with the glove.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#345852) #
KC traded for 3 pitchers, so I think they are good. Pearce is the second most likely Blue Jays to be moved after Smith.
I figure Morales stays at least another year. It's all on Tellez top push him out, really.

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Gerry - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#345853) #
Danny Barnes to the DL, Matt Dermody recalled. Barnes has a shoulder impingement. He has been hit around a bit recently.
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Four Seamer - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#345854) #

Thanks, Mike Green, for that GIDP chart.  Interesting (to me at least) that Morales is not the worst offender on the team (either in absolute number, or in rate), and his GIDP rate is  more or less similar to much of the rest of the lineup, given the sample sizes.  Given his glacial speed and ground ball tendencies, I would have thought he'd been the key culprit.  Underlines how bad the team has been as a whole, I guess, that Morales is not much of an outlier.       

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85bluejay - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#345855) #
China fan - thanks for the explanation - I had no clue what it was all about.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#345856) #
"It's all on Tellez to push him out, really." - So,you're saying that Morales will be here for all 3 years!
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hypobole - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#345857) #
Except Morales IS the worst offender. The chart was only for runners on 1st and 2nd.

Morales has 17 total GIDP's, the other 12 with either bases loaded, 1st and 3rd, or just a man on 1st.

There is only 1 player in MLB with more than Morales - Matt Kemp has 21.
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hypobole - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#345858) #
Just dawned on me - does runners on 1st and 2nd include bases loaded?
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Mike Green - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#345859) #
FS, that is just the 1st and 2nd situation.  Morales has the second worst rate on the club by opportunity overall.  Darwin Barney "leads" and both he and Goins have been very bad in that department.  BBRef has both Barney and Goins at -1 WAR this year.  Both have blown past their worst ever seasons.

Ezequiel Carrera is pretty clearly one of the club's nine best position players (and one of their three best outfielders) at this point.  He's earned more than half-time work.

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Four Seamer - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#345860) #
Ah, thanks for the clarification MG.  I thought those numbers looked low, across the board. 
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lexomatic - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#345861) #
Paul, not that I think your stats don't have merit, but did anybody on Twitter talk about year to year carry over of the dp%? I think the jays are particularly suited to a repeat high % but a list that short suggests fluke.
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Chuck - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#345864) #
Is it my imagination or do pitchers no longer tip their hats when leaving to a standing ovation? I was yelling for Cesar to do so, but he wilfully ignored me.
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Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#345865) #
That would be overly expressive and thus disrespectful to the game.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 25 2017 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#345866) #
Valdez was the winning pitcher in his major league debut, a start for the Diamondbacks back in May 2010. This would be his second, assuming the bullpen can hold on. It's been a while. Probably why he doesn't how to behave.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#345868) #
Does everyone trust Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to do the right thing, the thing that works? The best influx of the minors is due 2019-2020 and that doesn't help the remainder of this year or 2018. A lot of the viewer response on a vary of radio shows says old, slow and uninteresting. Haven't changed how they hit since last year.

The Jays' Brain Trust has a lot to do this Offseason, perhaps too much to get it all done. Accomplishing something this Trade Period and August's can do a lot to get things right.
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Chuck - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#345871) #
On a night that sees Pillar's OBP/SLG drop to 2xx/3xx, Tulowitzki climbs above that line of Mendozian misery, now sporting a lofty 302 OBP. Pillar is likely to soon return to the land of 3xx/4xx, albeit with small numbers where the x's are. Conversely, it wouldn't take much for Tulowitzki to return to 2xx/3xx, where he has spent most of the season.

Bautista is now slugging under 400 which would be halfway tolerable if his OBP weren't only 8 points above the league average. That there is conversation about whether or not he'd waive his no-trade clause seems absurd. Who would actively be pursuing him?

The team as a whole is last in scoring in the AL, but surprisingly not last in OBP. I'd use the word brutal to describe their offense but I wouldn't want to put a scare into Cesar, the author of a rare pitching gem (he gets pounded in his next start, right?).

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Paul D - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#345873) #
Paul, not that I think your stats don't have merit, but did anybody on Twitter talk about year to year carry over of the dp%? I think the jays are particularly suited to a repeat high % but a list that short suggests fluke.

That was pointed out to me by a friend, I didn't see the conversation. I suppose you can read it two ways - the optimistic way to read it is that it can only get better.

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hypobole - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#345875) #
When you have a team with multiple slugs that hits a fair share of ground balls, is that sky high DP% really much of a fluke? One standard deviation on the high side?
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scottt - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#345876) #
Players can only get slower.
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China fan - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#345877) #
Valdez now has 16 very good innings for the Jays this year, plus 61 very good innings for Buffalo. His K/BB peripherals are good, his xFIP is good. He also had good minor-league numbers in 2015 and 2016. Anyone think maybe he's a potential gem in the rough? Under-valued by other teams because of his age, but a potential contributor to the Jays over the next year or two?

I agree that we shouldn't judge too much from his success against the poor-hitting Athletics. But his numbers against other teams are intriguing.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#345878) #
So, the discussion about GIDPs led me to David Ortiz' BBRef page and I saw something that intrigued me, his BBRef most simiilar player by age.  It goes like this beginning from age 24: Casey Kotchman, Mo Vaughn, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Tony Clark, Justin Morneau, Mo Vaughn, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira (33-36), Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas (38-40). 

It was a reminder to me why I believe that the DH can change the aging curve for very good hitters.  Ortiz isn't the only one.  Brian Downing and Edgar Martinez were similar.  I truly believe that Jose Bautista's career would have benefited from a move to full time DH a year or two ago, and I still think that he could have a renaissance if moved to that role. 

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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#345879) #
Valdez could surely surprise us and be a serviceable starter for a year or two.  He is going to be highly sensitive to ball-in-play performance by the defence- he is not going to strike out or walk that many and he will give up quite a few home runs. I am sure all the starting pitcher candidates for 2018 would be happy if the club fielded better next year than this one.
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#345880) #
"I ran a Play Index on Benitendi to find outfielders who had at least 500 PAs at ages 21 and 22 with an OPS+ between 100 and 110 (Benintendi's is 105) and less than 100 strikeouts. I got 23 comps- post-war players included Gus Bell, Bill White Dan Driessen, Bill Buckner, Pete Rose, Richie Ashburn, Terry Puhl, Nick Markakis and Steve Kemp. Amazingly, there were absolutely no flame-outs and almost all were good players at ages 25-30.. "

there's a ton of nothing guys with similar stats as Benintendi at that age who only had more than 100k because they had far more at bats than he has had.

there's no need to gild the lilly here - #1 prospect and expected star rookie has been a league average bat without great defense, and has been less than a 2war type player by both versions. that is just not a big impact player like glevin was asking for.

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85bluejay - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#345881) #
My rooting interest for remainder of season - Boston drops out of AL east lead, lose in wild card game and then having Red Sox nation Whine over the winter - if they miss the playoffs altogether (not inconceivable), even better. I'm also pulling for Seattle to win a wildcard spot because I am impressed that the GM aggressively did what he said he was going to do last winter.
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Nigel - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#345882) #
Mike, I don't think you can use Ortiz for discussions on aging curves for the same reason you can't use Bonds or Clemens in those discussions. I happen to agree completely with you about Bautista and the DH though.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#345883) #
UO, K rates have rapidly increased over the period between when almost all of these prospects played and Benintendi.  The ideal comparison would be a K/PA+ using player K rates compared with league K rates at the time- unfortunately you cannot do that with Benintendi.  Instead, it's a rough guide.  Benintendi has about the same control of the strike zone as most of these players and the same level of offensive effectiveness as these players at the same age.  I did not control for power/batting average/walks- Benintendi falls about in the middle of a disparate group with more power than Pete Rose (and probably Terry Puhl) but less power than Bill White.
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rpriske - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#345884) #
The Royals are supposedly talking to the Jays about Liriano.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/royals-discussing-francisco-liriano-with-blue-jays.html

Why is unclear.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#345885) #
Mike, I don't think you can use Ortiz for discussions on aging curves for the same reason you can't use Bonds or Clemens in those discussions. I happen to agree completely with you about Bautista and the DH though.

Maybe I am naive, but Ortiz' terrific spurt from age 38-40 came long after the testing regime was in place (unlike for Bonds and Clemens).  I realize that it is possible to avoid detection and have no doubt that some players are still using. 
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James W - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#345886) #
So.... Benintendi is performing more like a normal rookie would? Guys like Trout and Judge still aren't the norm, (i.e. putting up 6+ WAR seasons as rookies) and they even struggled in their first kick at the can.

Do players such as Buxton or Benintendi still have the potential of being "high impact"? I certainly think so, but you never know.
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#345887) #
mike his 17.8k% is just kinda ok, really. something you might even hope for him to improve upon if he's not going to hit for much power
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#345888) #
but beni still has plenty of upside. i am talking only about the topic of rookie impacts here.
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christaylor - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#345889) #
Anabolic steroids have long lasting effects long after cessation of treatment. Think of it this way, the aging process includes a loss of muscle-mass. If a player starts at an inflated level then given a constant decline in muscle mass, the loss of muscle will become an issue later in their career than a player who did not take steroids. Makes intuitive sense to me.

FWIW: I'm a doctor who has published on aging, but not a medical doctor and think players such as Bonds, Clemens, and Ortiz belong in the hall despite the performance enhancing drug kerfuffle.
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christaylor - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#345890) #
As a Jays fan who resides in Boston, this, this, a thousand times this -- nothing could be finer than a WC loss or a September collapse (a la 2011). I went to Jays - Sox games at the Dome and Fenway this month and they're insufferable.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#345891) #
Guys like Valdez, with success outside of major league baseball, are interesting and I could see Valdez emerging as a valuable swing type.  It's a similar story to Wilmer Font who was in our system last year and has been a Fringe Five prospect of note at Fangraphs this year in AAA with the Dodgers.  Valdez can be optioned this year, but this is his final option year. 

I'll take any intriguing story lines right now!

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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#345892) #
UO, MLB average K/PA is 21.5% this year.  When Pete Rose had a 10.3% K rate in his rookie year, the NL average for non-pitchers was 14.3%.  Benintendi does not have as good contact ability as Pete Rose, but it's a definite strength.  I wanted to capture that because his contact ability at this point is more of a strength than his power or his walk rate. 

By the way, Benintendi's defensive ability is hard to measure.  The Green Monster has always created special problems for measuring outfield defence.
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Nigel - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#345893) #
Mike, I don't know you but your posts have never struck me as naive. Optimistic seems a more apt description:). If you would like to remain optimistic about the effect of drug testing programs I would advise against reading any books about cycling written in the last 30 years.

Kidding aside I would be thrilled if Alford had a rookie season as successful as Benitendi. I would go some way to what ails this roster.
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Chuck - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#345894) #
I would be thrilled if Alford had a rookie season as successful as Benitendi.

And that has already been rendered impossible since Benintendi is having his rookie season at age 22/23 now (he and Alford are almost exactly the same age so by age alone, Alford is behind on the learning curve).

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ayjackson - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#345895) #
When you have a team with multiple slugs that hits a fair share of ground balls, is that sky high DP% really much of a fluke? One standard deviation on the high side?

15% higher than the second highest of all time seems like it would be more than one standard deviation on the high side.
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hypobole - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#345896) #
One more slowness stat.

Prior to last year, no team had hit fewer than 11 triples in a season. The Orioles last year only hit 6. At the 100 game mark, the Jays have 4.
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Chuck - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#345898) #
Back in the day, Bill James might have come up with a slowness index, perhaps GIDP divided by triples.
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Chuck - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#345899) #
That said, the Angels might object to be being called slow. Despite their modest 8 triples, they lead the AL in SB.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#345900) #
Can anyone explain this to me?  Tonight, the Blue Jays send the flyballer Estrada out to face a right-hander Blackburn.  Tomorrow afternoon, the Blue Jays send a groundballer Stroman to face a left-hander Manaea.  The lineup for tonight has Pearce in left, Bautista in right and Morales DHing.  Whatever for?  Why wouldn't you give one of them a day off and let Carrera play tonight, and then use the entire slow old right-handed coot double-play machine alignment tomorrow afternoon?

Carrera has actually been the best of the four of them this year, and I don't understand why you wouldn't use him tonight.  Did I mention that he's been hotter than July?  Not that this should be important, but it often does capture a manager's attention. 

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Magpie - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#345901) #
Tony Fernandez hit 17 triples playing his home games at this very same park back in 1990, to establish the team record. This group won't match that. But those of us who were there back in 1990 got the distinct impression that Tony had become weirdly obsessed with hitting triples, and was heading for third base every chance he had.

And by gosh, the bb-ref data tells us that Fernandez made 4 baserunning outs at third that year, and 9 total outs on the bases that season. A bunch of guys were next with 3 outs on the bases, including Kenny Williams who hardly ever played.
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scottt - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#345902) #
Pearce and Bautista are available to anyone who wants to give anything for them. Pearce could be gone before Tuesday. Bautista is more an August trade candidate. Doesn't sound likely, but something could happen and make someone desperate.
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scottt - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#345903) #
If the bases are empty, an out at 3rd is really bad, but if they are runners on the bases, nobody would be too upset about making an out at 3rd while cashing some runs.
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#345904) #
1) Valdez now has 16 very good innings for the Jays this year, plus 61 very good innings for Buffalo
Any intriguing player performs consistently during the current season. For pitchers, 70 innings roughly equal to one season of relieving.
2) His K/BB peripherals are good, his xFIP is good.
His stats include K/BB and xFIP
3) He is going to be highly sensitive to ball-in-play performance by the defence- he is not going to strike out or walk that many and he will give up quite a few home runs. I agree that we shouldn't judge too much from his success against the poor-hitting Athletics.
His performance is judged in the context on team defense.
4) He also had good minor-league numbers in 2015 and 2016.
His good recent performance includes those of the last two seasons with MLB affiliated teams.
5) Valdez succeeded outside of major league baseball. It's a similar story to Wilmer Font who was in our system last year and has been a Fringe Five prospect of note at Fangraphs this year in AAA with the Dodgers.
His good recent performance outside of MLB affiliated baseball needs to be accredited by credible baseball websites and MLB teams
6) Under-valued by other teams because of his age.
Age can be an undervaluing factor.

If we fans are going to look for intriguing player(s) to solve for example the second base void, that player needs to have good performance according to determining statistics this and the last two seasons of MLB affiliated baseball. The stats needs to be judged in the contexts of team defense and opponent offense. Thirdly, performance and stats outside of MLB affiliated baseball are based on credible sources such as credible websites and MLB teams. Last but not least, age can be an undervaluing factor which can affect the judgement of performance on the player.
Can the summary in the above paragraph useful? I think so as it is the brainchild of posters here.
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Nigel - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#345905) #
Mike, Gibbons has been doing this all year. It's clear that Gibbons has zero clue of how to optimize player usage based on offensive/defensive contributions which are dependent on the handedness of the opposition starter and the flyball/groundedball tendencies of the Jays starter. There is no excuse for this.
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#345906) #
I don't know if I can stomach two more years of Morales messing up the lineup configuration, providing no value on defense or the base paths, and grounding out over 50% of the time. It's only been four months and it feels like an eternity. He needs to have a 120 wRC+ to be valuable, and it's not even close. A 1998 Randy Myers situation where a desperate team saves the Jays from two more years of suffering would be better than any trade the FO could make right now. It will never happen, but we can dream.
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hypobole - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#345907) #
On the bright side, having Morales hitting behind him is doing wonders for Smoak's walk totals.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#345910) #
On the bright side, Morales just won the game for the Jays.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#345912) #
damn, I missed that comeback.  Nice one.  Morales has had lots of big moments this year ... just like Goins.  Pat Tabler is definitely impressed. 
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 26 2017 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#345913) #
Morales definitely has his clutch moments. He still has good bat speed and hits the ball hard, but the GB's are obnoxious to watch. Someone in the organization, please fix it.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#345917) #
That was the second time in franchise history that the Jays won a game with back-to-back HRs?

Apparently. On June 14 1986, Jack Morris took a 5-3 lead into the ninth. He gave up a leadoff single to Jesse Barfield and Willie Hernandez came in from the bullpen. Cliff Johnson hit a two-run homer to tie the game. And then Buck Martinez pinch-hit for Ernie Whitt and ended the game. I don't remember that game.

It was Martinez's first homer in just over a year (his 1985 season had come to a violent end in early July.) His previous homer had also been a walkoff shot against Detroit, this time in the 12th inning off Aurelio Lopez to beat the Tigers 2-0. I definitely remember that game. Jimmy Key took a no-hitter into the ninth.

Martinez only hit 58 homers in his career and those two were the only walkoffs.
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Petey Baseball - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#345918) #
If, hypothetically, 85 wins gets the second wildcard, the Jays would have to go 38-22 in their last 60 games.

The way things have played out, this will probably be moot, but should they find a way to win the next three games before the deadline, I wouldn't want the job of explaining to veteran players why a valuable reliever was dealt in the midst of the a winning streak.

Atkins would be a position similar to Anthopolous in July '14, and we know how that ended up.
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#345919) #
Offense in the last 7 games:

Hot: Smoak, Carrera
Good: Morales
OK: Tulo, Martin, Donaldson
Bad: Goins, Pearce
Tepid: Barney, Bautista, Pillar, Montero

Bautista has an OPS of .408 in the last 7 games. I would have no problem explaining to him that if the team was to make a trade, it would be to replace him.

I was amused when Tabby talked about Bautista's fielding percentage. He's the slowest right fielder in baseball.

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greenfrog - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#345921) #
In high-leverage situations this year, Morales has a wRC+ of 200. Goins has a wRC+ of 58 in those situations. I'm not seeing the comparison here.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#345922) #
The Jays are 6.5 games back of the 2nd WC with 7 teams to pass. I don't think the FO has to worry about player perception if they trade Smith. They would need an August/September 2015 type of run, and that's not going to happen with this roster. The 2014 Jays were 60-50 at the deadline and leading the 2nd WC, and ended up not adding anyone except Valencia. They were in much better position to make a run that season. I think even the most optimistic Jays player senses that this season is a lost cause.

What could happen is the Jays improving the OF defense with a trade or two (Bautista/Pearce), maybe getting an improvement at 2B even if it's a stop-gap, and improving in the last two months by default. Maybe enough to get to around .500, but not enough to make any noise in the race. That's probably the best case at this point.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#345923) #
Youneverknow.  The 1964 Cardinals were 47-48 and 10 games out in 7th place on July 24.  They were playing badly despite having acquired Lou Brock for Broglio and Shantz in June.  They got hot in late July with Brock, Boyer and Bill White leading the way, caught the Phillies, and defeated the Yankees in 7 games.

There are obvious differences- the '64 Cardinals were a young club mostly and they had a much, much better defence than the '17 Blue Jays.  It might still be possible to ameliorate this problem (both for 2017 and later years) by a deadline deal.  The chance of acquiring a Brock-quality player is, needless to say, low, but a move in the Cardinal direction would be most welcome. 
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#345925) #
Unless there's another crippling injury, the offense should flare up in August, but at this point, I don't think the starting pitching is capable of sustaining a long winning streak.
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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#345926) #
I remember in 2011, the ST. Louis Post Dispatch doing an early September post-mortem on what went wrong with the Cardinals season, only to have the team get hot, others stumble and of course the Cardinals won the wild card and World Series.
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bpoz - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#345927) #
That was year that they traded a good young player for immediate help. Colby Rasmus.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#345930) #
As it turned out, Rasmus was taking time from Jon Jay who delivered more value to the Cardinals that year than Rasmus did.  The Jays do not have exactly this situation, although it is likely that Chris Rowley (for instance) could deliver better results than Francisco Liriano at this point.
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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#345933) #
The Jays will shed a lot of money after this year - given John Lott's note that the FO believes the window of contending extends to 2020 & the Jays don't shop at the top end of FA (unlikely to give out longterm contracts to older players) - I wonder if the FO would take all of Verlander (2/56) & Dee Gordon (3/38) contracts if it greatly reduces the prospects required - it certainly fits in with that timeline - maybe there are other contracts posters would prefer the team to take?
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#345934) #
"...Why wouldn't you give one of them a day off and let Carrera play tonight..."

Mike, you and Nigel were both complaining loudly about Carrera's absence from the lineup yesterday, and Nigel blamed it on a manager who has "zero clue."  But in today's game, Carrera is again out of the lineup, and he didn't enter the late innings of yesterday's game either.  (Normally he replaces Pearce in the late innings for defensive purposes.)  So -- isn't it at least plausible that Carrera has a minor injury that is nagging him, and that's the explanation for his absence from the lineup?  Carrera would normally play at least every second game, plus the late-innings for defensive purposes. He didn't play yesterday and isn't in today's lineup, which is very unusual for his normal role (especially since his hitting has been so good this season).  So, without any explicit confirmation from the Jays so far, I would guess there's a pretty good chance that he has a minor health issue, especially since he was on the DL just a few weeks ago.  He had a foot fracture in mid-June, yet he returned quite quickly, so I suspect the Jays are being cautious with him if there's any health issue at all.

I wonder if it would be possible for commentators to refrain from blasting the manager whenever there's a lineup that they don't like.  There can be multiple explanations for any particular lineup.  It's not necessarily a result of a "clueless" manager.
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PeterG - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#345936) #
It is also possible that Pearce is being showcased.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#345938) #
Gibbons' decision to lean on the slow old power hitters has been a repetitive theme, CF.  He repeatedly says he expect them to break out at any moment and has been playing Bautista and Morales essentially every day despite their age and poor performance.  Incidentally, the fact that Carrera wasn't brought on late was perfectly normal.  He rarely is brought in for defence when the club is down, although he might be brought in to pinch-run as the tying or go-ahead run.  Neither of those situations obtained last night. 

I don't know why it might be permissible to criticize the FO for failing to acquire talent (which both of us have done from time to time) and not permissible to criticize the Manager for not using the talent on hand well.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#345939) #
I agree that Pearce, Bautista and Morales potentially are being showcased.  I don't see how it benefits the club to have them play day game after night game when they are older and not all playing well. 
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#345940) #
But Mike, you're now evading the question by muddling it with previous instances, even though those instances weren't the focus of your criticism yesterday.  If Carrera has a health issue, or if Pearce was being showcased by the front office, your criticism of the manager's decision yesterday was wrong and misplaced.   Your post suggested that it was a managerial mistake, but there are plenty of possible explanations to suggest that it wasn't even the manager who made the decision.  So, please, at least be fair and acknowledge that your assumption may have been wrong.
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Nigel - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#345942) #
CF, your comment about nagging injuries or showcasing is, of course, possible. It does not explain the fact that this has happened all year.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#345943) #
CF, I highly doubt that Carrera is injured but it is possible.  It is also possible that the FO ordered Gibbons to play all three of Pearce, Morales and Bautista both for the day game and the afternoon game afterwards, which would be a mitigating factor for Gibbons (a good manager would tell the FO where to get off if the FO insisted that he not give a little rest to an older under-performing player). 
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#345944) #
i'm old enough to remember when jays fans criticized gibbons for overplaying "his guy" Zeke.
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Nigel - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#345945) #
CF, isn't it obvious by now in the season (sad as this statement is) that Carrera is the second best OF on the team (taking all things into account)? I can see no evidence that Gibbons understands this. Nor can I see any evidence that Gibbons understands that there are better and worse days for him to deploy the Abominable Outfield of Pearce/Bautista. What other conclusion can I come to? I will gladly accept evidence to the contrary.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#345946) #
I missed that Beltre was ejected last night for "dragging the on-deck circle".  Me, I find it funny but perhaps Banister had some conversations with the umpires in the game that led up to the ejection. 
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Nigel - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#345947) #
Uglyone, I was probably one of those people. I am no great fan of Carrera. But facts are facts. He's better than Gibbons' other choices right now
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James W - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#345948) #
(Normally he replaces Pearce in the late innings for defensive purposes.)

The Jays never led the game (which is generally when you "go defense") and Pearce was on-deck (we'll have to check with Adrian Beltre to see if he was literally in the on-deck circle) to end the game, so if he got to the plate in the 9th, it would have been important. This last point requires the assumption that Steve Pearce has a better bat than Ezekiel Carrera, of course, which is also a big point in this debate.
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James W - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#345949) #
Carrera is the second best OF on the team

This stood out upon re-reading -- which outfielder has been better. Among the starters, it's a fairly easy to say "No" when asking if any has actually performed better than Carrera. Fangraphs version of WAR agrees, while bbref is giving Pillar a lot of defensive credit.

Is Darrell Cecilliani the answer to a trick question? [/sarcasm]
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Nigel - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#345950) #
My last point on this and then I will stop posting. It isn't an individual line-up that I have a problem with. It's the year long inefficient use of resources that drives me crazy. I have been posting on this site since before the season started that the Jays had a huge OF defence problem and that the best way for Gibbons to deal with the problem created for him by the front office was to creatively deploy his personnel. Mix and match personnel to situations. In particular, I was advocating for Morales to play a bench role on certain days where he might be used as a high leverage pinch hitter. I made the point back then that this was not Gibbons' strength and was unlikely to happen. I stand by those comments and stand by the notion that Gibbons has used his personnel very inefficiently. I also understand completely that the bigger problem of who he had to work with in the first place was not one of his making.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#345951) #
basically you are asking gibbons to bench one of the FO's offseason signings (morales/bautista/pearce) for a career 4th OF with questionable defense himself, who still projects as the worst of them going forward.
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#345952) #
Well, they had other players who were more promising than Rasmus who was basically a non-coachable, bad ethics, dubious clubhouse guy. Jon Jay was the 4th outfielder with better number than Rasmus and Allen Craig was about to come out of the DL and finish the year with an OPS+ of 151.

The Cards had a terrible bullpen with Trever Miller and P.J. Walters who the Jays acquired basically to send money back to St-Louis. The Jays gave up Scrabble who wasn't anything special and got Tallet which worked out pretty good all considered. The Cards took Corey Patterson. They didn't need him and didn't use him much. They got a solid reliever in Dotel and Edwin Jackson went 5-2 with an ERA+ of 104.

The Jays had acquire Edwin Jackson who was going to be a free agent for Frasor and Zach Stewart--no loss there. Frasor had been a fixture of the Jays bullpen but they were going to reacquire him shortly. Really, the worst part of the deal was getting Mark Teahen to hit below .200 over 27 games.

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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#345953) #
"dragging the on-deck circle"

Yeah, it is pretty funny. In baseball, you've never seen everything. I liked that the Yankees scored a run on a triple play.
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Chuck - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#345954) #
Adam Lind has been playing some LF for the Nationals who are both short outfielders and interested in getting Lind's bat into the lineup. Lind has been hitting a ton, in a bounceback season, but is blocked by a starting 1B hitting even more.

Lind stole a base today, the 7th of his career. I don't know the circumstances (rigor mortis on the part of the Milwaukee catcher?).

Meanwhile, the Jays appear to be playing it cool, presumably waiting for the 9th inning again for the offense to kick in.

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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#345955) #
Gibbons, Martin and Stroman ejected over ball and strike calls?  The Blue Jay strike zone twitter feed suggests that there haven't really been any outrageous calls and that the Blue Jays actually have got the better of the bad calls so far.  I'm not watching so maybe the twitter feed has it wrong.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#345956) #
Did Stroman really charge from the mound to argue ball and strike call?
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James W - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#345958) #
Stroman was upset at himself for missing his spot. After his ejection he clearly mouthed "I'm not talking to you", and Martin barely had enough time to say anything more than "Really?" before he was tossed.

I looked it up on the internet, apparently Will Little graduated from the Phil Cuzzi School of Hey-Look-At-Me.
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christaylor - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#345959) #
On the radio broadcast, it was suggested that Will Little said something before Stroman lost it.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#345960) #
@Joelsherman1
Have heard from 2 sources that despite Francisco Liriano's 5.99 ERA, #Bluejays getting hits on him and may be close to dealing him.

@Joelsherman1
Have heard few teams envision Liriano as relief option: Has 16 K/1BB vs. LHs, who have a .646 OPS against him. #bluejays
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#345961) #
Thanks, guys.  I'm glad to know that Stroman didn't go after the umpire.
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Chuck - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#345962) #
Toronto has walked 7 and Oakland zero. Clearly one side is happy with the calls (I am not watching either).
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Chuck - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#345963) #
Hits by Bautista, Tulowitzki and Pillar in the same game. Clearly the kraken has been released.

And Morales is no doubt sore at the rough treatment he gets in these parts, and has it as his mission to show us what's what.

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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#345964) #
You Be The Manager question.  What is your plan for usage of Carrera in the bottom of the ninth? 

It's kind of obvious if Morales reaches base, but otherwise?

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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#345965) #
Kendrys Morales apparently prefers to play in day games after night games!
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SK in NJ - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#345966) #
Morales took my Randy Myers comment to heart apparently.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#345967) #
Presumably Carrera pinch-runs for Tulo.
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cybercavalier - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#345968) #
If the game would continue to the 10th inning, would Pearce play second base? Carrera at LF and Goins at SS... Given all the talks about Pearce at 2B, put him at the position for real time gameplay.
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cybercavalier - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#345969) #
Why not Goins pinch hit for Barney.... Test Pearce at 2B, not talk
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Chuck - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#345970) #
Given all the talks about Pearce at 2B

Who has talked about this? Certainly not Gibbons.

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rpriske - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#345971) #
For those watching. Was the replay legit? Was Barney out?
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James W - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#345972) #
Yes. Foot was above the bag when the ball was in the glove.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#345973) #
Looks like Liriano to the Royals is gaining steam. Not official, but Sherman saying Liriano is KC's "sole focus" now.
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hypobole - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#345974) #
A fun few days at the park for the ticket-buyers. Redemption, even if only temporary, for Clutch-Meister Kendrys. JD de-slumping. Smoaky still Smoakin'.
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#345975) #
So much drama.

4 wins for Toronto. 4 losses for Oakland. Everybody's happy, except the umpire.

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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#345976) #
This team could really use a legitimate base stealing threat like Fields/Pompey - another month before they arrive.
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#345977) #
Don't worry about Morales. He's a second half guy.
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cybercavalier - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#345978) #
If not, the Steve Pearce may have to go. Steve Pearce is the most likely position player moved - guys like him always have some value at the trade deadline, and given the positional redundancy we have, it's addition by subtraction. Pearce GIDP 3/9. I can't see the Jays going with the Smoak-Pearce-Morales alignment again next year so they definitely have to choose between Pearce and Morales. Hopefully they can move Kendrys, but I doubt it. Pearce is the second most likely Blue Jays to be moved after Smith. Pearce [is] available to anyone who wants to give anything for them. Pearce could be gone before Tuesday. Offense in the last 7 games: Bad: Goins, Pearce. What could happen is the Jays improving the OF defense with a trade or two (Bautista/Pearce). Normally [Carrera] replaces Pearce in the late innings for defensive purposes.
I agree that Pearce, Bautista and Morales potentially are being showcased.

I just collected comments on Pearce. After today's walk-off grand slam, would the Jays still decide to trade Pearce away?
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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#345979) #
Now, if you're a dreamer - Yankees sweep Rays, Red Sox sweep Royals,Jays sweep Angels and suddenly...
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#345980) #
Stroman didn't charge the plate to argue the call.
Sroman was ejected in the middle of a monologue on the mound.
Stroman charged the umpire *after* he was ejected.
Martin seemed to say WTF? or something similar but was tossed as soon as he opened his mouth and the ump made it clear that he didn't want to hear what Martin had to say.

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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#345981) #
If Liriano goes, I'd love Chris Rowley to get an audition - keep Biagini in pen.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#345982) #
Who has talked about [Pearce at second base]? Certainly not Gibbons.

I think he did laugh and say "no way." Pearce had never played a single inning at 2b at any level before 2015 but the Orioles had three infielders go down at the same time, and they thought he'd learned how to play first base pretty quick, so...
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Gerry - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#345983) #
I was at the game today. Martin did hold several pitches that were called balls, a usual sign of a close call. Stroman didn't get a lot of swings and misses today from what I could see. I don't think it was his best day. But after the ejection it took three coaches to keep him off the umpire.

When Tulo was thrown out at the plate I thought he was dogging it around the bases but then I realised that is his running speed, it's slow.
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85bluejay - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#345984) #
Does Tulo not have a nagging groin injury - He looked so slow that in retrospect it was a poor send IMO.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#345985) #
Man would it be great if they went on a run now after all this crappiness.
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lexomatic - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#345986) #
Further to what Gerry said:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=491625&type=home_pitchers&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=sbp&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=null

After filtering for balls & strikes, it looks like there were a couple of borderline calls that went against Stroman, but the strikes outside the zone were all swings. Definitely looked wild today.

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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#345987) #
i mean even if you don't make the playoffs give us some fun the rest of the way.
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greenfrog - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#345988) #
Pearce, Bautista and Morales today were a combined 4/14 with 3 HR, a double, a walk, 5 runs scored and 6 RBI. Not bad for a bunch of old guys.
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bpoz - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#345989) #
The Rogers turf may be causing some of the injuries. Tulo possibly.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#345990) #
Hilarious video on Twitter of Gibbons confronting the umpire after getting tossed. The audio's bad, but the first words out of his mouth are "Were you out all f***ing night?"
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#345991) #
Tulo's charge home was nothing like when Donaldson or Martin run home.
More like what I'd expect of Smoak or Morales. He's probably not 100%.


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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#345992) #
Next are the Angels who are in a 9-16 stretch and who just got swept by the Cleveland Club. Then they hit the road to face the Pale Hoses who are 1-6 this week and reaching hard for that top draft pick.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#345993) #
sounds like travis will indeed return this year but not for another month or so.
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#345994) #
I don't mean to excessively belabor our earlier debate about Carrera, but I think it's increasingly clear that he must be hampered by some kind of minor injury, perhaps a shoulder or arm thing, because he was allowed to pinch-run today but he wasn't allowed to hit or field. 

After his pinch-running appearance, he would normally go to LF to replace Pearce.  It was a tie game, he had been brought into the game, and he is a better defender than Pearce.  The normal practice by Gibbons is to put Carrera into LF after he makes any late-inning appearance for pinch-hitting or pinch-running.  But instead he was immediately removed from the game, and Pearce remained in LF.  That signals, fairly clearly, that Carrera is not 100% at the moment.  Perhaps he'll be better by tomorrow.  Unfortunately I don't see any post-game explanation about Carrera from any of the Jays writers -- but they were focusing, logically, on the Stroman/Martin/umpire fiasco.

Is Carrera the second-best OF on the Jays at the moment, as Nigel suggests?  Wow, that's a provocative and interesting thought.  By the numbers, it's true, he has a higher OPS than the other outfielders -- but that's also because he is shielded from some pitchers.  His OPS could rapidly fall if he was playing every day.  Moreover, you can't judge a player purely by his current-season numbers, because some of them will regress towards their career norms.  I don't think Gibbons could give Carrera more playing time that Bautista or Pearce, since the front office has clearly signaled (by their contracts) that those guys are more highly valued.  And obviously Pillar has to play every day because he's the best defensive CF.  So I don't know whether Carrera should be playing every day, or whether that's even a realistic possibility, given the organizational decisions that were made at the start of the season.  I can't imagine the Jays giving up on Bautista, and there's no reason to give up on Pearce (except in late-inning defensive situations).

Should someone like Morales be used as a pinch-hitter on some days, rather than the regular DH?  I understand the argument, but games like today would certainly argue against it.

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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#345995) #
In a month or so, the rosters will expend, so there's no need to rush Travis.
Refsnyder is 4 for 10 at Buffalo and is playing exclusively 2B.

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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#345996) #
First of all, Gibbons was out, so you can't look too much into the coaching decisions.

Then, Carrera comes in when the team has a lead.
I don't know if you noticed, but Pearce hit a walkoff homerun and that's the reason why Carrera wasn't in LF.
It would be crazy to take Smoak out of a tie game.

Bautista is on the trading block, but he's obviously not that good.
He only becomes a possible trade target after the deadline, because nobody will claim him off waivers.
All it could take is an injury in August for the phone to ring.
The grand slam should help Pearce's stock.
I'm expecting him and Smith gone by Tuesday.

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Kasi - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#345997) #
Agreed China Fan. The issue is that Morales is a polarizing player. He is really slow (although that's not unique on this team) and he hits into a lot of DPs through all the ground balls. However he also has a ton of power and an ok BB/AVG rate. And what it comes down to it is among the players on this team there is not many players you'd rather have come up in a tough situation. Pure bat wise he's probably tied for the third best hitter on this team with Martin (and maybe Pearce too) and only behind Smoak and Donaldson. (And maybe Carrerra if you think his is sustainable which I don't)

TBH I've lost a lot of respect around the Bluejays community and blogs for the people who just hated Smoak last year and were so sure he was a failure who have now carried it over to Morales this year. You shouldn't not question authority but you should also not assume you know more than a full staff of statisticians and talent evaluators. Yet players like Pillar and Tulo get passes for their poor hitting because of their average defense and past results. Well Morales has had some good past results too. And unlike some he's still killing the ball. His power is huge, they just need to drop his GB rate 5% like his previous seasons. Compared to someone like Tulo who many studies have shown his bat speed is way down and he's needing to cheat to catch up to the ball.

This blog has actually been one of the most reasonable ones about Morales. Sure he's not having a great year, but he's at like 104 WRC now, is traditionally a second half guy and has hit a ton of clutch hits for the Jays this year. I'd not be surprised if he finished this year somewhere in the 110-120 WRC range which would be just fine given the low commitment to him. Anyway kudos to BB for the many voices of moderation in regards to Kendrys this year. If the Jays are going to make a run they need him to hit and I'll be cheering for him. (Especially given his rough personal issues)
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#345998) #
"...Pearce hit a walkoff homerun and that's the reason why Carrera wasn't in LF...."

Incorrect.  Carrera was already out of the game by that point.  He was replaced in the lineup by Goins. 

Check the box score.  Carrera is listed as PR, not LF.  In order for him to have played in LF, he would had to take Pearce's spot, and Pearce would have had to be removed from the lineup.  But he wasn't removed -- he hit the walkoff HR instead.

After the 9th inning, Wilner tweeted this: 

Mike Wilner‏Verified account @Wilnerness590  4h4 hours agoMore

Goins takes over at short, but Pearce stays in the game in LF. Zeke's out. I don't get that at all. #Bluejays bench is empty.

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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#345999) #
Around the league, Morales is considered a clubhouse guy. He's always the first  on the bench and he does work hard on his batting.
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jerjapan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#346000) #
Super fun win, even if my PVR stopped recording during Pearce's AB.  The Gibby video is indeed gold Magpie!

http://www.12up.com/posts/5319286-nsfw-video-thursday-s-john-gibbons-ejection-is-way-funnier-with-sound

Kasi, who's giving Tulo and Pillar a pass?

I'm easily among the most critical of the Morales deal, but let's remember that it's the deal being criticized, not the man ... Morales seems like a good guy, has a good story and indeed keeps coming up with big hits.  I've also heard that he's a good clubhouse guy, the first guy to show up for practice most days.  I cheer for him when he's batting. 

I'd love for someone to clarify if clutch hitting is an actual skill, I was under the impression that there wasn't much to demonstrate that statistically?

No idea how antipathy towards Smoak's deal is related to antipathy towards Morales' deal.  Being wrong about Smoak has been one of my favourite things about this trying season, but it's not like I was a cranky minority on that one ... I don't recall anyone liking the deal.  The best defense I recall was 'it's not enough money to be a big problem'.  Hardly a ringing endorsement.  But I think the 'Morales isn't so bad' ship has pretty much sailed.  He IS uniquely slow, even on this slow-ass team, doesn't actually have a ton of power, and while I agree that I'd like him up to bat in important spots, I'd still prefer Edwin.  I don't even agree that Morales has had 'some good past results'.  He was good in 2009-10 at age 26-7, got injured, got expensive, and has been declining ever since.  Morales is a player from the RBI era of measuring value, and the game has left him in the dust.  Look at the trade 'value' that Detroit got for Martinez. 

The Morales deal, to me, represented corporate indifference and managerial timidity / narrow-mindedness - a bit melodramatic I know.  But the whole AA thing never sat well with me, and I'm still waiting to be convinced that Shapiro isn't Darth Vader and that Atkins is actually an autonomous human being with free will. 

But re-signing Smoak went against all recieved wisdom and is paying out big time.  You win some, you lose some. 

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SK in NJ - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#346001) #
What bugs me about Morales is his GB rate. It almost negates his biggest strength, which is exit velocity/hard hit rate. The bat speed is still there. He should be a much better hitter than he's shown. Very frustrating. If they can figure out a way to cut down his GB's, then he'll benefit greatly from playing in RC. However if he's around league average offensively, then he stands out because he literally provides nothing else. If he's back to around 110-120 wRC+ by the end of the season, then that's about what I had him pegged for, so that's fine. It's when he is below 100 and grounding out 50% of the time that it really hurts the team. If this is the beginning of a hot streak for him, then great.

I'm curious to see what the Jays end up getting for Liriano. There appears to be legit interest in him, primarily as a reliever. If they can get value out of all four of their free agents, then that would definitely be a step in the right direction.
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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#346002) #
Carrera does not pinch hit for Pearce and does not replace Pearce unless the Jays are leading.
What Mike Wilner did not get is why they would empty the bench which would be a problem if someone else has to come out of the game. Goins should have been the pinch runner and Carrera should have remained on the bench to cover in case of injury or further expulsion.

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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#346003) #
don't ever listen to Wilner.

ever.
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#346004) #
"....Goins should have been the pinch runner and Carrera should have remained on the bench to cover in case of injury or further expulsion..."

Except that, as I mentioned, Carrera is probably not at 100% health.  That's why he was used as a pinch-runner.  He wasn't a good option for fielding or bench back-up.

The real question, in my view, is why Carrera or Goins weren't used as a pinch-runner for Tulo in the 7th inning after Tulo's double.  If the Jays were willing to pinch-run for Tulo in the 9th, why not in the 7th?
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#346005) #
"...don't ever listen to Wilner...."

Your hatred for Wilner is tedious and repetitive.  If you don't like someone, there's really no need to rush to mention it every time.  It makes you look simplistic.

Wilner, unlike us, actually watches every inning of every Jays game and talks to Gibbons every day.  At a minimum, that has value to me.  I'd much rather listen to him than to an uninformed fan who is doing guesswork from what they see on TV.

In any event, I cited Wilner only as evidence that there was no obvious reason for Carrera's absence from the field yesterday and today.  My theory is his health.  If you have a better theory, please feel free to try to persuade us.
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James W - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#346006) #
Whatever Carrera's health situation, I don't see what you would gain by pinch running with Carrera and then putting Goins in the field, when you could just pinch run with Goins and keep him in the field.

The argument is almost: "we better get him into the game now, because we don't want to be able to use him later" - which... why?

We don't know everything (some could argue we don't know ANYTHING!) but from what we can see, it looks like poor choices were made today.
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jerjapan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#346007) #
I like Wilner way more than angry blowhards like Stoeten or your grandpaw's buddy Pat Tabler.
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China fan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#346008) #
Personally I like Stoeten's work.  He has mellowed.  His profanity is just a stylistic tick.  I'm more interested in his analysis of the Jays, which he increasingly supplements with good statistical work, and I find that he often provides some useful insights.

Stoeten, in fact, proves that you don't need to travel with the team to cover them properly.  He cuts through a lot of the spin and rhetoric, and that's largely because of his outsider's perspective.

Insiders such as Wilner provide one kind of value, while outsiders such as Stoeten provide a different kind of value.  I try to listen to both perspectives.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#346009) #
don't ever listen to Wilner. ever.

just a PSA, fyi&b.
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jerjapan - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#346010) #
Maybe Stoeten has mellowed ... maybe ... or maybe his troll persona just doesn't fly on the larger platform.   I think he remains a jerk, but it's easier to call him out for it now.  Remember all that 'you're banned' BS?  Dude's a jerk, and there's way more insight from the posters here than he brings to the table. 

I have no idea what your acronym means Ugly. 



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Kasi - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#346011) #
I said the community on the internet jerjapan. BB is just one part of it and not a very big one. Other ones are very vehement on Morales. And those were the same people who were vehement on Smoak last year. These people (and not saying you are one) root for Morales to fail to vindicate their opinion and find a scapegoat to blame this season on. I find I can't respect fans who root against their team.

As for how you view Morales, I'm sad that you've not investigated deeper analysis of his hitting. The guy is elite at hard contact, which has been brought up in multiple articles on fangraphs among others. He is much more than an RBI guy like Joe Carter and the ship has sailed just as much as Smoaks ship sailed last year. As long as his bat speed and contact rate is elite he can rebound. Sure he won't be EE but I think he can get to 115 WRC.

As for your comments on management that makes me sad, if you feel a guy is evil then you are rooting for him to fail. I'd rather root for my team provided they don't hire someone like Phil Jackson for the knicks where he's actively trying to destroy the team. And the current management has made more good deals than bad since they started and have drafted quite well.
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Dewey - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#346012) #
His profanity is just a stylistic tick.

Surprised at you, CF.  It's a tic, not a tick.  Different beasts altogether.

(In any case, if it's a tic, it's a self-conscious one that he uses in the apparent conviction that it's 'shocking'.  It's merely adolescent.)
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Kasi - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#346013) #
And yes Stoeten is one of the best voices on Blue Jays now. He tells it like it is without scapegoating. And he calls other writers out on their BS articles, especiallly Simmons/Kelly.

And on Morales and clutch, well without him and his late game heroics we'd probably have 3-5 less wins this year. Who knows if what he's doing his predictive, it likely isn't. But his results this year in high leverage situations speak for themselves. (Over 200 WRC) I can be glad for that even if that skill doesn't stick.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#346014) #
stoets has blocked me on a number of platforms....but he knows his baseball. i have plenty of time for his opinions, even if he doesn't take disagreement very well.
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Chuck - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#346016) #
without him and his late game heroics we'd probably have 3-5 less wins this year.

What if Morales hit exactly the same in his "clutch" games (those 3-5 games he "won" for the team), but got his hits early in the game rather than in the 9th inning? The results for the team would be the same, but of course far less dramatic. Would he still be considered clutch? Would the value of his production be the same, or be deemed of lesser value because they weren't final inning heroics? Would he still get credit for your 3-5 wins?

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scottt - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#346017) #
The Rangers are packing it in and making Darvish available. He becomes the best starter ahead of Sonny Gray and Verlander. Lots of sellers.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 27 2017 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#346018) #
yep, chuck exposes the clutch paradox nicely.

after all, what difference does it make whether those homers come in the 1st or in the 9th?

especially when there's an easy argument that early leads make life much easier on the team in general.
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soupman - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#346019) #
@DrewGROF >>> @AndrewStoeten

i'd like to see someone around this team investigate the financial side. morgan campbell is the only one that i'm aware of asking questions that i care about.
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jerjapan - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#346020) #
Kasi, I didn't call anyone 'evil' in the FO,  Man, I hope I don't present as crazy enough to do that.  I did make a needlessly esoteric joke about Atkins, perhaps that's what you are referring to? 

Overall, I think these FO guys have had more hits than misses, and Smoak was a HR.  The draft seems strong as well, although it was college heavy and the strongest performers are older for their leagues.  I do feel that with the financial advantages that Boston and NY have on us, we need bolder leadership to compete, or a greater investment from Rogers.

Dewey, I think 'adolescent' is a perfect word to describe Stoeten. 



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China fan - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 04:17 AM EDT (#346022) #
Dewey, you got me.  I knew it would happen someday!
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bpoz - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#346023) #
Hitting early or late in a game against a good pitcher is more impressive. The late hitting is more dramatic.

This year Grilli created many dramatic/clutch situations.
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Mike Green - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#346027) #
Morales has hit very well in high leverage situations.  He has also hit well when the margin (either way) is 4 runs or more.  He has not hit well in non-high-leverage tie games. 

Fangraphs has a clutch stat.  Kendrys Morales does lead the club for 2017 with 1.23 and Kevin Pillar trails at -1.16.  For the period 2015-17 (for players who have been with the team for at least 2 years), Ezequiel Carrera leads with 0.86 and Edwin Encarnacion trails with -2.38 (I consider that to be absolutely meaningless).  If you look at MLB 2010-17, the leaders in clutch performance over any significant number of PAs are: Jacoby Ellsbury, John Jaso, Adrian Gonzalez, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer and Matt Wieters.  Kendrys Morales is well down the list, but is somewhat positive.  If you want to give him a very modest bonus for clutchiness, you can.  In his career, he has hit quite well in high leverage situations, almost as well in low leverage situations and relatively poorly in medium leverage situations. 

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ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#346028) #
Not to do with anything being discussed but I saw Max Scherzer being interviewed today and noticed he has one blue eye and one brown eye. It's really weird to look at.
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scottt - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#346031) #
Scherzer's heterochroma iridium is hard to miss, unless you're watching him on the radio or on a black and white tv.
It was on his bobble head 6 years ago.

It's caused by a lack of genetic diversity. It's quite common in animals which don't have huge pool to reproduce from.
I've had more than one dog like that. No offense intended.
Scherzer is a freak in the good sense of the term. Looking like a lock for the Hall of Fame.

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SK in NJ - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#346038) #
Price is going on the DL with an elbow issue. The Yankees have a real shot at winning the division.
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Mike Green - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#346039) #
I don't know that Scherzer is a lock for the Hall of Fame.  BBRef lists his 10 most comparable pitchers as Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Jon Lester, Ramon Martinez, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Mike Mussina.  Santana and Oswalt were great pitchers in their time, but ran into arm problems in their early 30s.  Dave Stieb and Felix Hernandez are other examples of pitchers who were about as dominant as Scherzer has been, and may not ultimately make it to the Hall of Fame. 

Kershaw, on the other hand, has made it even if he does not play another game. 

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scottt - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#346047) #
I don' think 141 wins gets you there. Durability is a huge part of getting into the HOF and Kershaw is only 29.
Swertzer has a higher FIP and strikes out more than Kershaw. It's just a matter of getting to 3000 strike outs and he should be in.

Dave Stieb doesn't even has 2000 strike outs. Doc barely got over 2100.

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pubster - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#346049) #
"What if Morales hit exactly the same in his "clutch" games (those 3-5 games he "won" for the team), but got his hits early in the game rather than in the 9th inning? The results for the team would be the same, but of course far less dramatic. Would he still be considered clutch? Would the value of his production be the same, or be deemed of lesser value because they weren't final inning heroics? Would he still get credit for your 3-5 wins?"

Its much better to get hits in clutch (high leverage) situations. Nobody on two out, and the batter hits a single. Not a big deal. Bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th - thats a more "clutch" time to hit a single.

I don't really believe that players can elevate their performance in clutch situations. But Derek Jeter thinks players can, and he probably knows more about baseball than us.
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Chuck - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#346053) #
Nobody on two out, and the batter hits a single. Not a big deal. Bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th - thats a more "clutch" time to hit a single.

Very educational. I had no idea.

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Mike Green - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#346057) #
Angel Hernandez behind the plate today. 
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scottt - Friday, July 28 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#346064) #
The infield plays differently when there are runners on.
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