sweep.

Aaron Sanchez has them scoreless through 2 innings for Dunedin.

Baltimore has  to figure out what to do with Machado who's a free agent after next year.
On paper, he's worth a ton of prospects, but all the contenders are set at third base except the Yankees and the Red Sox.
The Yankees already have a ready prospect and there's been some pretty bad blood between Boston and Baltimore this year.

I'm not that hype on Biagini the starter.

sweep

weep?

Gausman after 5 shutout innings tonight has a 2.04 ERA in 22.1 IP against the Jays this season and 7.56 ERA in 63.1 IP against everyone else.

If there ever was a season to be a seller, this would be it.

This is painful. And Tabler's incessant blathering is not helping.

"If there ever was a season to be a seller, this would be it."

The 10 games after this series are against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros, and then immediately after the break it's a 10 game road trip ending with 4 at Fenway and 3 at Cleveland. The schedule doesn't look too friendly as far as making a real run over the next month. The bad April created a hole that was going to be extremely hard to climb out of, and it's getting to the point where holding their heads above water isn't enough anymore.

The next month will be interesting. I can't imagine they'd be buyers if they are still under .500. Wasting prospect capital to get the 2nd WC would be foolish if there are a large quantity of teams ahead of them. Being sellers does seem like the more likely outcome, especially if they can't beat the mediocre teams. Who they can possibly sell and actually get value for would be the question in that scenario.

Not really.  They have a lot of highly payed declining players who wouldn't bring much back.
There will be tons of better players up for trade in a month.

Maybe this is the year they go on a run in September.

So Pearce gets pinch-hit for. Again. Not Tulowitzki. Not Pillar.

Gibbons doesn't seem to think Pearce is a good hitter for some reason. I know he had a bad April, but he's climbed out of that funk. He should not be getting pinch hit for. Defensive replacement, sure, but keep his bat in the lineup if possible.

Weird team for my fandom. Lots of individual players I like to cheer for but a very hard team to like as a whole. Poor defence, poor baserunning, poor roster construction, questionable managing. It all ends up as a team that is less than the sum of its parts.

The Blue Jays would be a better ballclub with Pearce and Smoak at first base and DH, and Kendrys Morales in a pinch-hitting/substitute role. 

The more I see of Leone the more I like. I think he's miscast as a long man but he seems like a guy, with his strikeout rate, who could handle some medium leverage work.

Can Morales play LF? If he can, Zeke just substitutes him in late innings...

Mike, that's what I'd like to see next year. The Jays need 2 OFs. I'd like to see Pearce as the primary 1B and Smoak as the primary DH. Move Pearce to play the OF and Smoak to 1B on the days you want to DH Donaldson or Martin. Morales would be gone in a perfect world but pinch hitter extraordinaire also works for me.

Or 1B Morales and LF Pearce... LF Zeke replaces Morales and Pearce goes to 1B. Smoak remained not substituted as the DH.

Pearce is a better player than Morales, so I'd be OK with a move that opens up more playing time for Pearce without having him play the OF and without having to bench Smoak. The issue is, Morales won't be benched, and he's likely not tradable with his contract, so unless they can somehow find a taker for his contract, then this is probably the alignment we will see for a while.

It would be poor management to let a player of Morales' caliber dictate playing time but pro athletes being what they are you may be right SK. Unfortunately this was a foreseeable self inflicted wound.

Can Matt Holliday and Morales swap teams?

I don't think it makes sense to be much of a buyer or a seller as things are right now. Sure if someone were to overpay for some asset, you make the deal, and similarly if some asset were to be really cheap to acquire, you make the deal.

Holding the opponents to 3 runs should be enough to win more often than not, but 1 run isn't going to get it done.

Looking just at season to date numbers this lineup had 2 good players (Smoak - 952; Donaldson - 888), 2 bad players (Tulowitzki - 672; Barney - 573 (or Goins - 626), and 5 averagish players (OPS of 7xx). So this means there aren't many holes to fix in this version of the lineup, nor are there obviously any high super high value trade items (unless you are selling Donaldson).

The median qualified SS has an OPS of 724, so 672 is about 50 below that. Barney is about 200 below the median qualified 2B. We hope Tulo will find his stroke. We know there is a whole because of Travis's injury at 2B.

The median qualified DH is Morales. He's not a massive handicap on the team, but nor is he a source of advantage.

For all of these comparisons using "median qualified" should raise the bar from just "median" since it doesn't count the backup/replacement players. However, if you want to be a playoff team you need to do a bit better than merely "median qualified".

Overall the Jays are 23rd in MLB in team OPS, but some of that comes from periods where they had more injuries than they have now. To get to be a top 10 MLB / top 5 AL team they need to raise the team OPS from 735 to 766 or 756 (surprisingly there are 7 NL teams better than the 5th best AL team).

But the Jays strength has been more on the pitching side than on the hitting side. Right now the Jays pitchers are 15th best in ERA, 11th best in WHIP. And that is even with the many simultaneous starting pitcher injuries that we've had. The bullpen has been pretty outstanding, and now that Grilli is officially done, doesn't really have weak links. With Sanchez hopefully coming back soon, the pitching should continue to be a strength.

So if there is a cheap but good 2b available, that would help the team. If the team struggles through the trade deadline and someone is willing to overpay/pay full value for an older starting pitcher or bullpen help, then that makes sense. But overall a drastic buy or sell doesn't make sense.

I'd be okay moving Estrada and Happ at the deadline. And Liriano if he'd fetch anything.

Estrada has an ERA+ of 92. Liriano, 83.

Happ is looking better, but they'll need him next year, and then some.

So if there is a cheap but good 2b available, that would help the team.

Is Eric Sogard a cheap but good? Swapping Barney for Sogard? The swap can include a third team...

ahhhhhh

-chooo ?

Happ is looking better, but they'll need him next year, and then some.

Unless they don't plan on contending next year...

I may be frustrated.

If we could get a big haul for Stroman, I'd trade him and try to extend Eatrada again. We have an option on Happ?

It is the same thing with every team's fanbase when it comes to talking trades... they want to trade the bad players and except other teams to give them quality in return.

I absolutely agree that the Jays should be selling, but there are literally only two choices: Donaldson and Osuna.

Trading Estrada or Liriano won't bring a big enough return to be worthwhile. NONE of the other position players are in demand (unless you can convince someone to buy high on Smoak, which I doubt).

Stroman has value but there is no reason to trade him.

It comes down to whether you can get a big enough haul for Donaldson (due to his injury concerns) or Osuna.

If another team wants to pay enough - sell.

And for god's sake, they shouldn't be giving anything of value for Jed Lowrie. (Now, if they can get him cheap... but Oakland is thinking the same way, I am sure.)

Yeah, things are starting to look bleak. The malaise even extends to Donaldson. In the past dozen games where the Jays have gone 5-7 he's hitting .191/.283/.234.

honestly that's silly.

there's only a handful of jays that wouldn't have good trade value at the moment.

If you're feeling down, I highly recommend John Lott's article in today's Athletic on Chris Smith (and Jason Grilli).  

There is a note there also on Devon Travis.  He had arthroscopic surgery two weeks ago and is walking normally.  For those of us who figured that his season was done, that might be a tad pessimistic.  He is going to have go through extensive rehab but writing off the season entirely seems a bit premature to me given his current state. 

The Yankees were 41/2 games out of the wild card when Cashman made the bold decision to sell & had to convince ownership - Cashman deserves credit for speeding up the Yankees rebuild.

MLB Trade Rumors has Sonny Gray as on the block with the Jays interested. After a bad year last year his numbers look decent this year and he isn't a free agent until after the 2019 season. He is the type the Jays should be after - could help this year will help in 2018 and beyond. A's are in last and 16 1/2 out of their division lead (1 1/2 behind the Jays) the only thing they have a shot at is the 2nd wildcard. Given how cheap the A's are the Jays really should take advantage if they can.

If you're feeling down

Speaking only for myself, I am not down about their on-field success. Life is too short for a sports team to be able to dictate my mood. What I am frustrated about is that they are not enjoyable to watch. Sure, there are some players whose performances can be interesting, but this is a bland team. Little in the way of young guys on the path to becoming their better selves. Too much in the way of old guys who are shadows of their former selves.

I have similar feelings. I would prefer to see a much younger more exciting team that offers hope of good things in the future. I would also prefer to see a totally different brand of baseball. I enjoyed watching KC on the weekend. This is the way the FO indicates they wish to go. Let's hope they can do it and with no interference from the top.

"The Yankees were 41/2 games out of the wild card when Cashman made the bold decision to sell & had to convince ownership - Cashman deserves credit for speeding up the Yankees rebuild."

If the jays are in 9th place and 5gms out a month from now, i don't think you'll find many opposed to selling.

agreed chuck - and that's been exacerbated in a big way by so many of the closest kids (sanchez travis pompey alford) being injured.

Even if the Jays can't get much for Estrada and Liriano, it is better to move them. The team can't give the QO to Estrada again since he already got it once (new CBA), and Liriano isn't worth offering it to. If all they get back for them is some minor league depth, then it's better than losing them for nothing (assuming the team has no interest in bringing them back next season). Same with Bautista, although he has 10/5 rights so he can block a trade.

Obviously if they put Donaldson and Osuna on the block, then things change in terms of the type of return they could get, but I'm not sure they will do that.

Why would we want Sonny Gray for the rest of this year and 2 more years?

I am guessing that he would not get the big $ until 2020.

For me, it's not really that they are bland it's just that they hit so many discordant notes (fielding, baserunning, roster construction). I've happily cheered for a number of Jays teams over the last 40 years that were .500ish (or worse) and bland. I will always cheer for the team, but it's way harder for me when the team plays bad baseball.

I agree with Chuck as well. A veteran team is fine when they are winning, but incredibly boring when they aren't. What is more frustrating is that the team's best prospects are a few years away, and the upper minors doesn't have much in the way of help (Pompey if he's ever healthy is the closest), so even if they do start trading vets away, who is going to fill those spots? Can't say I'm too excited about DSJ's upside to care about him playing everyday, but he'd be a breath of fresh air over watching Zeke, I guess.

it's not just bland - it's frustrating.

because of this:

wRISP: .225avg (30th), .240babip (30th)

(29th placed babip wRISP is 24 points higher than us, btw)

Add in that they lead the AL in GIDP despite being below average in OBP.

As I see it, we can sell Donaldson and Osuna but we'd need a major haul to justify it.

* The problem with Donaldson: most contenders have good 3B, with only a couple of exceptions.

* In light of his age and personal circumstances, I consider Osuna's feelings of disorientation etc. to be a sign of normalcy rather than a mental health problem. But let's not kid ourselves, his trade value just took a big hit.

* We can sell Happ, who looks like himself again and would be valuable to a playoff-bound team. Especially with an extra year of control.

* If Joe Smith comes back OK from his current injury, he's in a similarly salable category.

The barrier to selling Happ or Smith is lower, in a way, because the expected return is at a different level of "good but not silly."

In the "possible but not likely, and you'll get less than you'd think" category...

* Smoak hasn't proven this is real yet, and Saunders provides an unfortunate cautionary GM's tale from the same team.

* Jose has good OBP and some power, and a playoff record. That's a mid-tier outfielder who can fill in at 3B, with poor defense and many teams who do not like the example he sets on the field.

* Martin has a deserved reputation behind the plate, and some power, but the bat has been poor for a long time now and he has a big contract overhang.

* Would anyone trade for Zeke as a 4th OF? He's right on the margin of maybe. If so, I'd do it and play a kid.

* Pillar's defensive metrics have slipped, and his bat has regressed. Teams like his demeanor. Don't see a trade as worth it for what we'd get.

I don't see even the remote prospect of buyers for what we have at 2B/SS.

What is more frustrating is that the team's best prospects are a few years away, and the upper minors doesn't have much in the way of help.

Are there some AAAA or matured prospects that are left over? Is it time to be creative with roster management to bridge the gap of our veterans and prospects?

Yup, this team has its fun moments but right now they're painful to watch (again).

To me, this team would be a lot more fun to watch if we just replaced Morales with someone who could actually run a bit. Preferably a lot. This team is as slow as molasses, and any ground ball hit is an automatic double play. (With fast players, at least there's a bit of suspense).

It's kind of painful watching this team when most ground balls are automatic double plays, guys aren't getting on base, and you're just hoping for a home run. One more really fast guy would at least improve the balance a little bit, and add a bit of a spark.

I don't think we're out of it yet, and the team isn't as bad as it looks right now. But we're running out of time for the what ifs to come true.

I don't expect us to be buyers. Not without a hot streak. June will end soon with a record that is most likely a little under 500. Monthly this team has been cold, hot and a little cold. So hot is due for next month.

If our record is 84 wins or less by year end IMO the window of contention is closed. I am then hoping the FO sees it that way too.

To me, this team would be a lot more fun to watch if we just replaced Morales with someone who could actually run a bit. Preferably a lot.

Please read posts above. Morales at 1B, Smoak at DH and Pearce at LF to start the game. Then Zeke pinch hits for Morales and then plays LF. Pearce then switches from LF to 1B. The batting order is RF Bautista C Martin 3B Donaldson DH Smoak LF Pearce 1B Morales SS Tulo 2B Barney/Goins CF Pillar. When Zeke substitutes Morales, Zeke becomes the second leadoff after the top 5 hitter. Tulo drives in whoever left on base while batting 7th. Pillar gets on base for Bautista.

In the 6th inning yesterday Bautista was on 3rd base with 2 outs and Smoak was up, so the Orioles had an extreme shift on and the 3B was playing where the SS stands for the typical batter. I was at the game so I don't know what the broadcast showed, but Bautista seemed hesitant to take a big lead even though there was absolutely nothing preventing him from being half way down the line to home on each pitch. I don't know if he was scared of being hit by the ball or what, but sure enough the pitcher threw a wild pitch and Bautista didn't score because he hesitated on what should've been an easy scamper home considering where the defense was situated. Smoak walked to load the bases and Morales Kd and that was that, but even picking up that one run and making it a 3-1 game could've gone a long way towards determining the ultimate outcome of the game. When the team isn't doing the big things (HRs) to win games, missing out on the little opportunities becomes even more glaring.

Morales at 1B, Smoak at DH and Pearce at LF to start the game. Then Zeke pinch hits for Morales and then plays LF.

Smoak is a better defender than Morales so warrants starting at 1B over Morales. Morales is a better hitter than Carrera so Carrera should not be pinch-hitting for Morales.

"Martin has a deserved reputation behind the plate, and some power, but the bat has been poor for a long time now and he has a big contract overhang."

Bat has been poor? he's one of the best hitting everyday catchers in baseball. Borderline all-star calibre this year with his 112wrc+.

I was at the game so I don't know what the broadcast showed, but Bautista seemed hesitant to take a big lead

On TV, it seemed like Bautista was not taking as big a lead as he could have. On the wild pitch, it appeared that Bautista's view of the baseball was blocked by the batter. I'm sure a great many viewers yelled out for him to go. I was among them.

"To me, this team would be a lot more fun to watch if we just replaced Morales with someone who could actually run a bit. "

It's easy to imagine a much more dynamic team simply by ditching morales, using bautista/pearce/smoak as the 1B/DHs, and having an elite defensive OF of Pillar, Pompey, and Alford. Maybe with smith as the 4th OF too. And of course getting Travis back would be nice. Mix in the likes of Jansen and Tellez for bench roles next year and we look a lot younger, quickly.

cubs dfa'd montero because he was bitching.

i'd pick him up as an even better option as a PH/#3C.

we look a lot.... quickly.

Does imagination rule the [roster management]? In reality, can Zeke, Bautista or Pearce play 2B to start the game? 2B Goins or Barney pinch hits for RF Zeke. Smoak, Morales remain at 1B and DH.

cubs dfa'd montero because he was bitching. i'd pick him up as an even better option as a PH/#3C. I think Derek Norris would be a good pick-up. There is no possible way Maile's defense is good enough to make up for his bat. Derek Norris is another defense only guy, might as well stick with Maile. If he'd take a AAA deal, why not. I would have no problem if Norris replaced Maile though. In fact, I would very much approve.

The Rays have released Derek Norris....

"....wRISP: .225avg (30th), .240babip (30th)...."

Both of these numbers are substantially below the team's average and BABIP without runners in scoring position.  In other words, the Jays hitters are performing much worse with runners in scoring position.  Is there any logical reason for this?  I don't think so.  I don't believe that the Jays hitters are somehow "choking" in a pressure situation, or suddenly becoming worse hitters when there are runners in scoring position.  It's more likely to be random luck and random variation.  If so, then the Jays record is misleading and they aren't as bad as their record suggests.  (I realize that a Pythagorean calculation points to a different conclusion, suggesting that the Jays record is a fairly good approximation of their run differential.  But the RISP numbers suggest that the runs themselves are fewer than they should be collecting from their normal hitting numbers.)

In any event, before the Jays decide whether to buy or sell players at the trading deadline, they will need to do some kind of assessment of whether the team's 36-40 won-loss record is a fair measure of their talent or not.  Maybe it isn't.

Fangraphs' base runs formulas do a nice job of capturing the efficiency for both runs scored and prevented.  The 2017 Blue Jays have scored 4.28 runs per game, but would be expected to score 4.40 runs per game.  On the other hand, they have allowed 4.59 runs per game and would be expected to have allowed 4.65 runs per game.  In the result, they are -25 runs in fact and would be -19 with average efficiency.  It would not have resulted in any ordinal change to their record (i.e the difference would be in a fraction of a win at this point). 

Jays have announced the Saunders signing, he is off to Buffalo.

The Jays also announced the signing of their top two draft picks. Both are in TO today and will be meeting with the media.

Talking about refurbishment of Jays prospects and Canadians, Moises Sierra and Travis Snider are still playing in the PCL.

The Jays BABIP with RISP is actually the 10th lowest in the entire history of major-league baseball, and the lowest in the past 29 years.  Clearly there is a substantial degree of bad luck in that number.   Seems likely to me that the Jays won-loss record would be better if their BABIP with RISP had been closer to average, rather than historically abysmal.

there's only a handful of jays that wouldn't have good trade value at the moment.

Uh... no. Teams that are buying at the trade deadline are trying to make their teams better.

I am not saying that there aren't some bullpen arms the Jays couldn't trade... there are. But they wouldn't get anything back that would actually make a marked difference in the team going forward... so why do it?

I will adjust my initial statement to add Happ. It is POSSIBLE someone would pay enough for him that it was worth trading him. I wouldn't count on it, but it is possible. In the case of Smoak, any team that paid enough to make it worth Toronto's while is overpaying... but it is always possible that someone does that.

There are two reasons to trade players away when you are losing. To save money or to improve the team for future seasons. (Sometimes both.)

There are no big movable contracts here. So it comes down to improving the team. Moving a player for a couple of C-prospects is not worth the effort of making the move. If they don't get a real return, don't trade for the sake of trading.

That's why I come back to Donaldson and Osuna. Trading them COULD improve the team in the future. (Yes, Osuna is young, but it is almost always a good idea to sell high on relievers and the team has shown no signs that they are going to move him into the rotation.)

The main thing is not batting with RISP, but pure under-performance (due to injury/unexpectedly steep aging curve).  Fangraphs projects the Blue Jay offence to score 5.02 runs per game from here on out.  Tulo is projected to be a lot better over the remainder of the season, and Bautista, Pearce, and Morales are projected to quite a bit better with only Smoak projected to be not as good. 

Montero would be a nice addition. He's not the hitter he was a few years back, but in about 100 AB's this year, he's put up an OPS of about .800. He's unlikely to keep that up, but he still is good enough that there will be demand for him, so the Cubs should be able to trade him, the Jays won't be able to just put in a claim, although his $14 million salary will discourage some teams.

Gray is interesting. He was looking like one of the best young pitchers in baseball a couple of years ago, but then he had a terrible 2016. He's bounced back somewhat this year, but he's still giving up a hit an inning, a much higher rate than he was producing in 2013 - 2015. He's had several periods of arm trouble, plus food poisoning, which probably explains the drop off in performance the last 2 years. With 2 more years of control, he'd fetch a nice return for the A's. None of his arm troubles were serious, and he could recover his pre-2016 form.

Smoak's got plenty of trade value, as does pretty much the entire pitching staff outside of Liriano.  It's the offensive players that are generally underperforming, but guys like Bautista and Martin have value if the Jays eat some of the contract. 

IMO, Martin will easily be worth the cost of his contract, barring injury, but the backloaded structure of it is what means the Jays would need to retain salary - it's not that he doesn't have legit value - 1.1 fWAR already this season. 

many of the veteran weaknesses with the offensive players could be mitigated by clearing the logjam of DHs.  a super utility player would open up space on the roster for a legit pinch runner, for example. 

The Morales deal continues to bug the heck out of me. 

"Teams that are buying at the trade deadline are trying to make their teams better."

yup.

the following players would make many teams better:

Stroman
Sanchez
Happ
Estrada

Osuna
Smith
Biagini
Tepera
Barnes
Loup


Donaldson
Martin
Travis
Pillar
Tulowitzki
Smoak
Bautista
Pearce

"It's easy to imagine a much more dynamic team simply by ditching morales, using bautista/pearce/smoak as the 1B/DHs, and having an elite defensive OF of Pillar, Pompey, and Alford. Maybe with smith as the 4th OF too. And of course getting Travis back would be nice. Mix in the likes of Jansen and Tellez for bench roles next year and we look a lot younger, quickly."

This seems like a good senario. Bring up Pompey as soon as he's ready and Alford when there is more clarity about not making the playoffs. The present team dynamic is jaw-dangling snoozy.

I am a firm believer that the flyable revolution is coming and the math behind why teams are encouraging their players to hit more fly balls is also why as a team we need better defenders in the outfield corners.

There isn't much we can do the rest of this season correct the Batista, Carrea, Pearce corner situation, but I want I do want Pompey, Alford mixed in enough to see if they can be options for next season.

The Morales deal continues to bug the heck out of me.

Would the Yankees take Morales for Holliday? Their first basemen are young in early or middle 20s. Could Morales help them? Meanwhile, the Jays get only 1 year of Holliday. Next season, Pearce, Bautista and other veteran may need more time at DH while Pompey is coming up.

IMO,

Jays should trade Donaldson and Estrada, retool with what they can get back and try to stay in contention. It would be very radical but possible. Yankees had a similar strategy last year albeit with caveats (they resigned Chapman, they still didn't make the playoffs).

3B Bautista
2B Pearce
1B Smoak
SS Tulowitzki
DH Morales
C Martin
CF Pillar
LF Pompey
RF ?

...Yes, this line up looks weak and DL prone...but you can say the same about tonight's line up and JD is looking more and more like a 7+ win player facing a breaking down body.

SP Sanchez
SP Stroman
SP Biagini
SP Happ
SP Liriano

Same bullpen. You would be improving the above line up with whatever you can get back for Donaldson and Estrada, including prospects that would go to AA/AAA. What do you guys think we can get for Donaldson and Estrada, not necessarily dealt to the same team or in the same deal. I'm thinking a top 50 prospect for Estrada or a combination of 2-3 over top 100 prospects. For Donaldson I see 2-3 prospects similar but not as highly ranked as what Red Sox got for Sale. one should definitely be able to plug into the team roster this year with one to two more in AA or AAA.

In the NL, there's only a few teams in contention. There's like 10 games between the second wild card and the next team. The good teams are already stacked. All the other NL teams will be selling at the trade deadline. 5 buyers, 10 sellers.  All those teams have players becoming free agents that they'll lose for nothing.

Let's just take Smoak for example, Only the Dodgers need a firstbasemen. They're not trading a top prospect for a guy with no track record.

The Morales deal continues to bug the heck out of me.
Only the Dodgers need a firstbasemen.

Is Cody Bellinger a LF or 1B? So shall the Jays trade Morales then?

Trading Donaldson and remaining in contention will be pretty hard to do, unless they get an impact prospect or two who can start right away (Amed Rosario types), and even that's asking a lot from a prospect(s). Not saying it's a bad plan necessarily, depending on what they get back, as maximizing the return for Donaldson would make sense if they are not 100% sure of team direction next season and/or feel he's leaving after 2018 anyway, but remaining in contention in that scenario seems like a long shot.

That pitch to Martin was a 0% strike and 11.4 inches from the strike zone. We may have a winner in the called strike farthest from the zone contest.

Apparently, the AL average is one GIDP every 46 plate appearances. Not in Toronto:

Player                   PA    GIDP      PA/GDP

Darwin Barney	 TOR	146	 9	 16.2
Steve Pearce	 TOR	116	 6	 19.3
Kendrys Morales	 TOR	295	12	 24.6
Troy Tulowitzki	 TOR	167	 6	 27.8
Russell Martin	 TOR	202	 7	 28.9
Jose Bautista	 TOR	329	11	 29.9
Ryan Goins*	 TOR	187	 6	 31.2
Devon Travis	 TOR	197	 5	 39.4
Chris Coghlan*	 TOR  	 88	 2	 44.0
Justin Smoak#	 TOR	282	 6	 47.0
Luke Maile	 TOR	 95	 2	 47.5
Kevin Pillar	 TOR	326	 6	 54.3
Josh Donaldson	 TOR	149	 2	 74.5
Ezequiel Carrera TOR	188	 1	188.0

And two more tonight.

It's clear some of you guys want to trade players ... but to who, and for whom?  Retooling / rebuilding is all well and good in theory - actually, it's not even that good in theory (tongue firmly in cheek, but still - do you guys prefer a losing team with a strong farm?).  Plenty of posters here would doubtless have punted in 2015 and we'd still be waiting for the playoffs.  Prospects are great and all, but it's not an all or nothing scenario - everyone keeps citing the Yanks.  I doubt many of the fans of the retool or rebuild would have wanted to acquire Chapman in the first place - that goes against the orthodoxy of 'prospects before players'.  If this premise was so 'radical' why is it that every Jays site you find has someone extolling the virtues of dealing Donaldson et al?   

Scottt, sure, in the NL only the Dodgers need a 1B.  Four contenders in the AL need a 1B - Seattle, Texas, NYY, and LA.  Find one willing to bet on Smoak's 1st half as 'for real' and you have yourself a deal - and it doesn't need to involve a 'top prospect' for it to be a worthwhile move.  There are likely only two other big name 1B being offered right now - Abreu and  Alonso. 

Smoak may be legit.  Plenty of posters here and commentators elsewhere have cited real reasons for Smoak to have improved.  Two consecutive Jay's front offices have bet on his talent.  AA bet large on Jose and EE, and those moves paid off tremendously. 

Not that I expect Shaprio and co. to look to deal Smoak - that's an AA type move, and people round here are still uncomfortable with his big losing bets.  You win some, you lose some.  We don't have JD without AA's freewheeling aggression.  Would Thor for JD be more palatable? 

We can make moves that work with both our short-term window and our long-term goals.  That's the radical approach in my book.  Not to mention, we have way more prospect capital than people are acknowledging - by the end of next season we will start seeing young, impact talent ready to graduate from the farm. 

Italics begone! Did that work?

"If this premise was so 'radical' why is it that every Jays site you find has someone extolling the virtues of dealing Donaldson et al?"
- because it's radical in the sense of real million dollar baseball teams predominantly NOT doing it because it's risky and requires punting away real human beings. It's not radical in the sense of anonymous posters on the internet. That's why it's so radical...and it's not a premise so much as a real life strategy that's radical.

"Smoak may be legit. Plenty of posters here and commentators elsewhere have cited real reasons for Smoak to have improved."
- can we all agree that posters on Drunkjaysfans and battersbox are not reliable sources for evaluating players?

"We can make moves that work with both our short-term window and our long-term goals. That's the radical approach in my book. Not to mention, we have way more prospect capital than people are acknowledging - by the end of next season we will start seeing young, impact talent ready to graduate from the farm."
- you are glossing over the past 3 years...who have the Jays had as a prospect that they've developed, brought into the show and has become a regular. People haven't been acknowledging our prospect capital because we haven't had any until this season, and now people are acknowledging it.

Welcome to the Stro-show.

#Stayinthefight

Jeff Sullivan never wrote for DrunkJaysFans as far as I know (a site which hasn't existed for several years, BTW).  The people I'm referring to on the Box are pretty compelling posters, FWIW... I'll take their commentary over Stoeten's any day. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-urgent-need-for-a-justin-smoak-article/

"Glossing over the past 3 years" is a red herring.  I'm not glossing over them, they aren't relevant to our current situation  But just to point out the obvious answers, Osuna, Barnes and Tepera.  We currently have prospect capital, whether we did or not last year is immaterial to the discussion. 

Last year the Cubs had a great record and were lucky to win the WS. Cleveland was the hard luck loser.

This year they are flirting with 500. As are the Jays.

Houston is flirting with 700.

My point is that one years results do not guarantee anything for next year.

Bautista and Estrada can help a team like Houston win the WS. A hot playoffs from either is very possible. After all they did it for the last 2 years. Their playoff experience should help them in the playoffs. I have seen a good player with no playoff experience have a bad playoff.

"everyone keeps citing the Yanks. I doubt many of the fans of the retool or rebuild would have wanted to acquire Chapman in the first place - that goes against the orthodoxy of 'prospects before players'."


The Yankees got Chapman for practically nothing because of an alleged domestic violence situation that he was in at the time, and one he eventually got suspended for. If the Jays acquired someone like him for a bunch of non-prospects, I don't think anyone would have cared or thought it was deviating from their plan. Cashman has a similar mindset as Shapiro. He is not trading top prospects, but he has moved pieces to get improvements where he can. If you look at the list of players he traded for Chapman, Hicks, Didi, and Castro, it's incredibly underwhelming. Plus, they were able to trade Chapman for pieces and bring him back (they actually got back the player they sent for Castro, too). I'd love if the Jays FO could make moves like the ones Cashman has made the last few years.


"We can make moves that work with both our short-term window and our long-term goals. That's the radical approach in my book."


That's essentially what they have been doing already. You can disagree with some of the moves (certainly the Morales signing hasn't looked like they envisioned), but they haven't touched the prospect base since they took over and in that time have made the playoffs once and on paper had a team capable of making it again this season (not looking too good at the moment). When the team needed upgrades at the deadline last season, they went out and got Liriano, Benoit, Feldman, and Upton. They've done a good job playing both sides, and the situation they inherited required them to play both sides. They haven't been sitting there hoarding prospects without focusing on the big league team. They have just prioritized "value" on the free agent market, meaning older players on cheaper/shorter deals. Some times you win those, and some times you lose. So far, I'm fine with Happ, Estrada, Pearce, and Smith, even if they don't seem to have much luck with players with the surname Morales in free agency.

Houston bought big during the winter. They have better players than Bautista in RF  and DH.
Bautista looked terrible against Cleveland and nobody wanted to beat the QO for him last winter.
In 2016, his OPS cratered to .817. This year it's .764.

Houston could use a starting pitcher, but only because they have 2 on the DL. They're both scheduled to be back in July.
They could trade for an ace to help win the WS, but Estrada hasn't been that this year.

Last year, theYankees traded guys like McCann and Chapman for guys that are now in the minors to free roster spots for their then ready prospects. The Jays don't have prospects knocking on the door like that.

"I have seen a good player with no playoff experience have a bad playoff"

And I have seen bad players with playoff experience have a good playoff!

yep, this year is the year that no playoff team will be interested in adding good pitchers or hitters.

of course, this will all sound a bit silly when we head into the allstar break in playoff position.

And I have seen the rain comin' down on a sunny day!   Several times in fact.

I wouldn't have kept Stroman in to face Seth Smith last night.  He had thrown over 110 pitches, and wasn't going to throw a complete game anyways and it wasn't a high leverage situation.  I would have brought on Loup. Although Stroman looked strong, I'm not keen on seeing him up around 120 pitches in light of his significant knee surgery.  Similarly, when Travis returns, I would hope that he gets pulled from the game if he has any kind of injury.  He's not going to do it himself, but sometimes a manager has to do it for him. 

Pretty much agreed on everything SK, although I'd like the FO to be more radical in upgrading the current team - explore trading Smoak, looking to acquire a super-utility guy who can offer versatility and fill in at 2B and LF, consider adding young talent, not just cheap rentals.  The Hicks, Didi and Castro moves might even be better examples of how good Cashman has been - as you mentioned, Cashman's value took a hit for his domestic abuse charge. 

Getting Hicks for a decent depth catcher was a criminally good move. 

"The Hicks, Didi and Castro moves might even be better examples of how good Cashman has been"

Yep. Most importantly they show that adding nothing but players in their mid to late 30s like they did was not the only option for Shapiro Inc.

mid to late 30's? The only players on the roster this year who are 35+ are Bautista (36) and Grilli (released).

Now at 34 you have Morales, Pearce, Howell (Martin & Happ already here at start of 2016/17 offseason) so they qualify as mid-30's.

33 you get Joe Smith (no one argues he isn't worth it), Estrada & Liriano.

32 you get Coghlan (minimum), Saltalamacchia (waste of money/time), Valdez (meh waiver claim), Tulo

I can't see a case for 31 or 30 being mid-late 30's.

So no one added who was over 35 (unless you count Grilli option and Bautista but both seemed obvious moves at the time). Plenty added in the lower mid 30 range in Morales/Pearce/Howell/Smith/Coghlan/Saltalamacchi who have added pretty much 0 to the Jays overall win total vs replacement level players. Bautista is at 0.7 (valued at $5.4 mil on FanGraphs) while Grilli was -0.7 so they combine to 0 WAR. Really the additions look like something but worked into nothing. Being over 32 none are likely to ever be better than they are now.

In the end the team seems to have done the low risk/low return route for 2017 to keep the team looking like a contender while waiting for Alford/Smith/Tellez and the other kids lower in the system to develop. Expect 2018 to be similar if the Jays can get close to a playoff slot with the kids being mixed in more and more.

Players Added:

Grilli 39-40
Benoit 38
Morales 34-36
Pearce 34-35
Howell 34
Happ 33-35
Smith 33
Floyd 33
Feldman 33
Navarro 32
Chavez 32
Upton 31
Biagini 26
Leone 25


Players re-upped

Bautista 36
Estrada 32-33
Liriano 32-33
Barney 31

No argument from me that Cashman over the last couple of seasons has been better than Shapiro's regime over the last year and a half, but it's still pretty early in their tenure, and overall they have done a good job regardless. The only player they traded so far that had the potential to get a Cashman type of return was possibly Liam Hendriks, but they only got one year of Jesse Chavez back. I'm sure they could have gotten someone better/younger given the value of relievers skyrocketing but they had their reasons for the move. The Yankees turned Adam Warren into Castro, so turning Hendriks into something better than Chavez was probably doable.

If the Jays are buyers, Josh Harrison intrigues me, I've read that the Pirates would like to dump his salary (7.75m this year, 10.25m next plus options), so his price should be reasonable if you take the contract - you can play him at 2nd,3rd & outfield corners

Why would the Pirates want to dump Harrison?   He's a good player and his contract is reasonable.  Anyways, if the Pirates are selling, I'd be interested in knowing what they want. 

I like Harrison. Very good 2B and can play 3B as well. He's not as good of a hitter as he has shown this season, but slightly above average as a hitter for his career with plus defense and base running is valuable. I don't think they will dump him, though. Now that his value has gone back up, they can get a real return for him. He would still be worth pursuing though. The two team options are intriguing, especially with the possible/impending loss of Donaldson after 2018.

Michael Saunders is already in Buffalo and in the lineup for todays game.

I wouldn't have liked seeing Loup come in to face Smith last night. My thinking there is once you let Stroman get the 8th in a 4 run game you let him pitch until he gives up a baserunner, which is Gibby's standard MO. He looked strong (was throwing 94), and if you're going to stretch him out a bit it makes sense to do it in a lower leverage situation that isn't garbage time (like a 7 run game) coming off his shortest start of the season with an extra days rest. Loup isn't getting lefties out this year, which is potentially a real problem on the roster, and they probably go to Rickard anyway.

It's tough to comment on Osuna's usage in the 9th, but ideally Barnes finishes that game by himself. I didn't like that Tepera was warming up right away behind him when Barnes came into the game. Getting unnecessarily hot adds up. If you don't really trust Barnes to get you one out there without having someone up behind him, just go straight to Tepera.

I'm usually pretty pleased when Gibby lets the SP air it out a bit and run up a pitch count. If only because he's usually over-conservative with pitch counts if anything.

I wouldn't have liked seeing Loup come in to face Smith last night. My thinking there is once you let Stroman get the 8th in a 4 run game you let him pitch until he gives up a baserunner, which is Gibby's standard MO

Would pitch-counts have entered into your thinking at all?  Let's suppose the first two batters foul off a bunch of two-strike pitches and Stroman has 123 pitches coming into the Smith at-bat,  would that change your thinking?

Sure, if Stroman was exhibiting an inability to finish off hitters his pitch count would definitely matter, especially already over 120. In this case he started the inning at 107, so clearly the purpose was to stretch him out a bit further than he's been going.

Maybe if Loup was actually getting lefties out this year he would've been used.

Sorry, looks like he was only at 102/103 pitches.

Sure.  The whole pitch count thing is definitely a judgment call.  For what it's worth, I didn't feel that Loup would have a better chance of getting Smith out than Stroman (despite having the platoon advantage ). 

Carrera is back in left-field today and batting 7th.  You can make a case that it would be better to have him batting 2nd (rather than Martin) and have Martin hitting 5th (with Morales hitting 6th and Tulo 7th).  Maybe it is something that Gibbons would consider after Carrera has a few games under his belt.

I'd rather have Pearce batting 2nd against LHP too. 

but martin is hitting better than both, and particularly putting up a better OBP.

There's more to it than current year OBP.  There is GIDP and baserunning to consider. Anyways, at this point, I'd expect Carrera's OBP to be a little higher than Martin's against RHP and Pearce's to be a little higher against LHP. 

I see your point about the potential platoon splits.....but aren't martin's numbers better than theirs historically, too?

Martin is good. You really think zeke is better?

Pearce's slash line is better than Martin's historically.  Carrera's is not. 

With Donaldson not running well, I'd rather not have 3 slow right-handed hitters followed by Smoak and Morales at the top of the order against a RHP.  The GIDP is a big item and with Carrera batting second, you reduce the risk and likely with little or no sacrifice to OBP.  Further, Martin batting 5th moves Morales and Tulo down in the order, which all in all is a good thing. 

I think they've been close, though Martin's done that in fulltime duty and Pearce limited duty.

Lemme check some splits

Last Calendar Year

Martin 502pa, .237/.369/.430, 118wrc+
Pearce 225pa, .251/.333/.432, 104wrc+

2016-17

Martin 741pa, .227/.346/.394, 102wrc+
Pearce 421pa, .284/.361/.483, 128wrc+

2015-17

Martin 1248pa, .233/.339/.420, 107wrc+
Pearce 746pa, .255/.330/.456, 112wrc+



Yeah, I can see an argument either way.

That reminds me - I thought it was a bit early to use Carrera as a pinch runner for Pearce in the bottom of the 6th when Pearce led off with a single. I understand that it's done to get faster on the bases and supposedly improve the defense for the final 3 innings, but a 4 run lead vs. BAL is not that large and I'd have kept Pearce's bat in the game to see if I needed him up again in that spot later (they didn't). If the plan was to hit-and-run with Pillar at the plate or have Carrera try and steal a bag up 4 runs that's fine, but to just have him stand there and get erased on Goins' DP made it seem like an unnecessary move to me, especially because I don't believe Pearce had touched the ball yet that game with Stroman on the mound. Could be a result of Gibby having that extra body on the bench and feeling like he can use his ammo earlier. That liberty might be taken away if they swap out Parmley for Sparkman, though it could be Smith/Believeau for Sparkman instead.

The GIDP is a big item and with Carrera batting second

Agreed. Carrera and Donaldson are the guys who best avoid the GIDP - one guy hits LH and runs pretty well, the other guy doesn't hit the ball on the ground very often. I like getting the rally-killers away from the heart of the lineup.

Pompey is playing left field and leading off for Dunedin tonight.

Bautista is a bit of an odd choice to lead off against Ubaldo. Entering tonight's game, Bautista was hitting .079/.222/.105 against him in 45 PA (so far tonight he's 0/1 with a strikeout).

Tonight would have been a logical game to give Bautista a day off, put Zeke in RF, and keep Pearce's hot bat in the lineup. I guess Gibbons is going to let Jose play 162 games if his body can handle it. Not exactly wise or helpful, but that appears to be the plan.

I don't like Zeke eating up so much of Pearce's playing time. Hopefully it's just being done because Pearce is coming off injury, rather than something we will see often. I had a feeling Pearce's bad April would hurt his PT given how much Gibby likes Zeke.

Man, how many times has Pillar had an at-bat such as that one this year? I'm losing hair watching him play baseball.

If the Jays lose 2 of 3 to Baltimore while scoring no runs against Gausman and Ubaldo, combined with the schedule they have coming up, they might be contemplating selling by the AS break. This is downright unwatchable baseball.

Well, I could watch that Pillar catch every now and then.

Do yourselves a favour and not watch when they are playing like this ... I try to skip the lousy weeks.  They aren't gonna suck forever, although I share you pain Sam.  Pillar is a personal fave of mine on D, and he's lost a step.  Weird to see it happen so abruptly though, he was a monster last year.

The ABs alway suck. 

I continue to be amused/bemused that Gibbons believes a 4/5 run lead In the 7th or later is a higher leverage situation that a 1/2 run deficit in the 7th inning or later. C'est la vie.

Pearce despite an absolutely brutal April has a 107 wRC+, while Morales is down to 102 after today's game. It won't happen because Morales is a veteran and teams usually don't operate this way (especially with free agents they just signed), but I really like the idea of Pearce at first base and Smoak at DH with Morales on the bench. The team is better defensively and offensively in that configuration. It does not appear that Morales' exit velocity and batted ball profile is going to lead to dramatically different results like the FO expected. He's the same guy he always was except he's hitting way more GB's now. He still has time to turn things around, but he's also 34.

I can't think of one team who would take his contract in a trade, unfortunately, otherwise he is the first player I would move. He needs to be a 120 wRC+ type of player to justify his place in the lineup and if he's not that guy, then he's hurting the team.

So that happened.

Twice in three nights.

Sparkman coming up while Smith optioned to AAA according to Davidi.

Glad we didn't get this from Ubaldo last October.

"If the Jays lose 2 of 3 to Baltimore while scoring no runs against Gausman and Ubaldo, combined with the schedule they have coming up, they might be contemplating selling by the AS break. This is downright unwatchable baseball."

The problem with selling is that the Jays have so little to sell. They have four players with real value: Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, and Osuna. Everything else will not get you back something more than long shots or bit pieces. What brings trade value is cost controlled major leaguers and stars. If the Jays are out of it, they almost have to trade Donaldson or risk losing him for a pick next year. This is not a team that should realistically be looking to improve next season. I would hold on for a while longer because I think it's probably the last season in a few years the Jays have a chance of seeing playoff baseball and I think there's still a realistic chance this season. If they stay close, I'm OK with trading decent prospects. The Jays now have the prospect depth to do so. If they fall out of it, I'd trade Donaldson and Osuna and try to build for a couple of years down the road.

Glevin, I'm fine with trading Donaldson if the team is willing to concede next season and start a retooling/rebuilding phase. Especially a team that looks as old and slow at this one. If they are not good this season, then can they realistically get much better next season?

My issue is I don't think Rogers is going to let a team leading the league in attendance take a step back unless they have no choice. That's why, for now, I'm going under the assumption that (if they sell) they will sell off Estrada, Bautista, Liriano, and Smith (the impending FA's) for as much value as they can get for them. Probably won't be much, but you never know. They'll take another stab at it next season, and if that fails, then they will have to rebuild by force rather than by choice. I'm still a believer of rebuilding on the fly (ala Cashman) where you don't have to completely bottom out, but with Donaldson's contract situation, it does make things a little more risky. The new CBA means keeping him and losing him for nothing gets you a 3rd round pick. There's still value there, but significantly less. They have to decide whether to extend him or trade him, and he doesn't strike me as a player who wants to be extended without testing the market first.

If the Jays are behind 5-6 teams for the 2nd WC, even if they are ~4 games back, I'm not trading any decent prospect for short-term help. That's a long shot at best for a team that doesn't look good using any metric at this point (negative RD, poor offense, etc).

The FO had to take a chance on Grilli, J Smith and Howell. Their budget dictated how much to spend on the pen. Next year they have Barnes, Tepera, Loup and D Leone and the Buffalo shuttle to help Osuna. That could be a good pen. But you never know.

The Rotation with Stroman, Sanchez, Happ and Biagini are 4 of 6 that we would need to start the year. An expensive FA addition may be possible in the Happ salary range.

I cannot understand fully how this offense is so bad. It certainly is not cheap. I expect the FO to address this. Another S Pearce type signing I would expect.

Donaldson will have more value during the winter. The teams that need a 3B are all sellers right now.
Bautista is a bigger bust than Morales. Replace him next year with JD Martinez and they could have a decent team.
Pearce is a good bench bat, but they need an utility guy that can hit like that to replace Barney.
Not sure if that's Gurriel.

The real rebuild move will be to trade Pillar and promote Alford. 
Pillar is still a solid defensive centerfield.  He should be traded while that holds true because the bat will not pick up.

gdamn orioles have really put the screws to us this year.

Some observations from Section 115 last night with my 12 year old daughter:

Speaking as someone who grew up with the team during the early 80's and who weathered the 1983-1984 blown saves etc. and kept coming back for more, I see a new crop of Jays fans now who are absolutely thrilled by the baseball experience much as I was in my youth. Even after this loss, fans were enjoying themselves in and around the stadium. My daughter pointed out that the Jays pitching and defense were excellent, but oh well we'll get 'em next time Dad and asked if I could see if they have Blue Jays fidget spinners.

We may be scuffling in the won/loss category but I observe a huge young fan base thirsting for, and relishing in, the Blue Jays experience and it is a beautiful thing to behold. IMHO that is a huge victory in and of itself.

Me, two weeks ago:  "When the rotation improves, the Jays will start winning.  The lineup is fine, it's the pitching that's the key."

Me, today:  "When the hitting improves, the Jays will start winning.  The pitching is fine, it's the hitting that's the key."

Me, two weeks from now:  "When the....

When you combine batting and baserunning, the Blue Jays have had the 2nd worst offence in the American League.  They have also scored the 2nd fewest runs.  And the team defence has been bad.  You can win with a league average offence, but it's awfully hard to win with an offence this bad. 

I observe a huge young fan base thirsting for, and relishing in, the Blue Jays experience and it is a beautiful thing to behold.

I wonder if that could be a good-news bad-news thing. If the fans are prepared to come out in droves to support a .500 team, what impetus is there for management to spend the money to not be a .500 team?

The Jays are just a smidge behind the Yankees for the lead in AL attendance. As an side, why does SF draw so well and Cleveland so poorly? Anyone have any insights into those markets?

eh, I think they're supporting a back-to-back playoff team, not a .500 team.

and that carry over will only last so long.

Agreed uglyone. Back to back. Also there is a lot of money to be made being in a pennant race. Getting in as the 2nd WC and winning. Thereby hosting many playoff games.

The attendance this year is a direct result of 2015-16. If they sink back to .500 or worse, then chances are attendance will go down again. The good news is, at least the stadium will be packed when the team is good. This run doesn't look like it will be sustainable enough to last many years, but if the next run does, then the potential is huge. Some cities can build a winning team and still won't see fans show up consistently. The Jays are in a good spot in that regard.

The game was bad (for the Jays) last night but the in park experience was good. It was my first "Thursday in the six" night but the band they had playing was very good and the DJ was good too. Going back to 1991 you went for the baseball but now you get a concert and entertainment too. It helps bring in, and keep, the younger fans.

The carry over won't last at all. Season tickets that were easily affordable 5 years ago are much less so today with cost going up around 200% in the 500 level. The money that was easily made flipping tickets on the secondary market 2 years ago is no longer there, and if they aren't competitive down the stretch this year there's going to be a whole whack of people who bought tickets thinking they could make $ who will not renew their seasons. The walk-up attendance this year is probably horrible.

I do think that the club's floor attendance is probably higher than it was 10-15 years ago.  The dome's location with easy subway and GO Transit access was always a plus, but the influx of people living within walking distance in the last 10-15 years makes the location just about perfect.  The club is marketing well to the new demographic.

That said, winning (or losing) makes a huge difference in attendance and in viewership.  I'd guess that the club's floor average attendance is probably 23,000 or 24,000 now rather than 20,000 as it was in the early aughts.

"....the Blue Jays have had the 2nd worst offence in the American League...."

The odd thing is that Jays did okay in May without Donaldson.  They were winning and they were climbing back towards Wild Card contention.  So, when Donaldson returned, it was natural to assume that the offense would improve, especially since he had hit so well in early April.  Nobody really envisioned that he would slump so badly in the second half of June.  His slump, combined with the Travis injury and several other bad performances, has really hurt the offense.

But a lot of this was foreseeable in the off-season.  The offense was pretty ordinary in 2016.  (It was the pitching that got the team into the playoffs.)  And the Front Office strategy in the off-season seemed to be merely to find a replacement for Encarnacion.  There was no real strategy to improve the offense.

There was no strategy to improve the team in the offseason. The strategy was to cover the significant holes on the roster without having to make a significant investment of assets (cash or prospects) doing so.

And, frankly, I think it's hard to look at the offseason moves and say that there was a coherent strategy. As I have said before, each offseason move, if you squinted had some logic. All of the moves, in their entirety, made no sense. Or, if your prefer the view that they had a logic, then the logic was poor.

As an side, why does SF draw so well and Cleveland so poorly? Anyone have any insights into those markets?

There are a lot of rich people in the Bay Area and the stadium is absolutely gorgeous.  Back in the day when the club played in Candlestick, they had trouble drawing flies when they were losing (remember things got so bad in 74-76 that the Giants almost ended up in Toronto).  Oakland is, of course, the poor sibling- they drew 300,000 fans one year (1979) when they were bad. 

The stadium in Cleveland is nice but the community, like so many in the Rust Belt, is struggling.  You'd think that a team that has been over .500 for five years running, came within a hair of winning the World Series last year, and is in first place this year, would draw well, but they don't.  It looks like attendance took a dive in 2008, which I guess makes sense. 

The logic I see is to maximize flexibility long term (no deals over 3 years) while keeping payroll at a reasonable level (eyeshot of top 10) and keeping fans thinking this team could go all the way. Meanwhile in the background building prospects and preoping for the next big push around 2020/2021 once the A ball kids reach.

their strategy from day one has been to react to the market to find value pieces, not to approach the market to find key core pieces. and my guess is that will always be the strategy. so we better hope they draft stars.

Uglyone, I agree with your comment on their approach to finding value pieces but it still all has to make sense together. It doesn't do you any good to come home and say that you got a fantastic bargain on 3 wedding rings:). Makes you an awesome bargain shopper but you're still sleeping on the couch.

yeah but they're buying stocks, not products.

Cornering the market on "value-priced" players at the right end of the defensive spectrum is a losing strategy.  It is entirely reasonable (indeed a good thing) to have enough players.  Smoak, Pearce, Morales and Bautista was at least one player too many,.  It mystifies me how Josh Reddick and Kendrys Morales got pretty much the same AAV. 

I was really hoping kendrys would make me look as stupid as happ did. alas.

that's the other part of the value strategy - you actually have to be good at it.

i'll say that our FO seems to be pretty good with pitching (though liriano bugs me a bit), but on the hitter side i'm not as impressed.

rich people in the Bay Area... the Rust Belt is suffering

For reasons inexplicable, I don't instinctively assume direct causation between socioeconomic factors and stadium attendance, even though it seems superficially obvious. But perhaps I should give the snow globe that is my brain a shake. Perhaps the answer really is that simple. Cleveland drew poorly last year as well en route to the World Series.

It mystifies me how Josh Reddick and Kendrys Morales got pretty much the same AAV.

In a star-studded Astro lineup, Reddick is quietly on pace for a 4 WAR season. It's a careless press that won't even whisper his name.

Maile gets the start tonight with a day game to follow tomorrow.  Carrera bats 2nd, which is good. 

Kendrys Morales has a nice career line against Fister- 3 homers and 3 doubles in 22 PAs.  Bautista and Donaldson have also hit him well. 

The value driven approach was necessary because the FO did not want to trade prospects, and wanted to stay out of the higher end FA market. Combine those two factors with not having any prospects ready to take big league spots, and there really wasn't much of an alternative. That doesn't excuse signing Morales for three years, though. I could understand the logic, but the term was too long even at the time. Now it will seem like an eternity if he continues to hit like he has this season.

but on the hitter side i'm not as impressed

Justin Smoak for three years at between $14.2 - 16.2m doesn't impress you? He's already been worth $15m in the first half-season of the contract.

When Dombrowski traded Fister to Washington for Robbie Ray, almost every commentator in the game thought he'd lost his mind. Since the trade, Fister has been worth a total of 3 WAR over three and a half seasons, while Ray has been worth 7.1 WAR and has struck out over 11 per 9 IP over the last season and a half. It can take a while to determine which team got the best of a trade, and sometimes less-heralded players can turn out to be pretty good.

Pompey leaves the Dunedin game, limping.