Does Gibbons keep with Bautista at the top of the order for the foreseeable future?

My guess is yes. His batting skills seem more OBP than SLG at this point, so he seems like the best candidate. My guess is that Gibbons won't bounce Pillar into and out of that spot, now that he's been removed.

Taking clues from last two games against the Rangers, batting Bautista leadoff means more or less our regular order as:
RF Bautista C Martin 3B Donaldson 1B Smoak DH Morales LF Pearce CF Pillar SS Tulo 2B Barney/Goins

Is there any news about improve the 2B issue? If none of J-Leb or Lopes is available
1) Claiming Vogt means only a September callup for Rafael Lopez. The latter seems to cool off.
2) a 2B outside of the organization is sought after but shall we promote any infielder veteran?

I don't think any series is easy any more. By the end of next week half of the schedule will have been played.

It's three against the Orioles.

OF Ian Parmley is up for the KC series with Valdez optioned back to Buffalo......

In all of our prospect speculation over the past year, I literally do not remember a single person predicting that Ian Parmley would be in the majors this season.

He is 27 years old, with an OPS of .701 in Buffalo.  His career OPS is the minors is .642.  He hits better against LHP, but the pitcher tonight is a RHP.  What am I missing?  I guess he can pinch-run; he has 11 stolen bases this year, although Roemon Fields has 12 stolen bases in half the games so Parmley is not even the best pinch-running option.  I guess he's a better CF than Dwight Smith Jr, so maybe it's his defence that persuaded the Jays to promote him?

2 batters in and I'm swearing a blue streak already.

The camera in the dugout showed Tulowitzki taking Martin to task for missing that hit and run.

Just bad baseball.

Having seen a lot of Parmley in Vancouver there really isn't much to recommend him as a player other than his baserunning.. His defence is decent but nothing special (although considerably better than Bautista). He is, however, fantastic with fans and he seems like a good guy, so there is that.

From reading some recent articles on Parmley, the only positive points that get mentioned are his defence, his apparent improvement in base-running (under the coaching of Tim Raines), and a bit of an improvement in his hitting over his past 22 games (a fairly small sample).

The quote on him from Gibbons is not exactly a rave review:  "We just needed another body.  A healthy guy with all the injuries we've had.....  He's a good solid baseball player -- can run a little bit."

The Royals started.hitting a few weeks ago, but before then, they were the worst hitting team in baseball. With lineups the Jays tonight, here's hoping a few runs is all they need to win the series, or sweep.

The Jays were probably looking for someone they could call up to play the OF and then immediately DFA for the 40-man roster spot as soon as Pearce or Carrera can play the field again

I must admit that Parmley definitely has speed.  He hit a routine grounder to 1B -- and he almost beat it out for a hit.

Kansas has a big outfield and both Estrada and Happ are fly ball pitchers.

Kendrys channeling his inner Billy Hamilton.

Tabler encouraging the Jays to bunt here. Stop the small ball madness!

Sure. Guy loses the strike zone, so naturally....bunt.

God this is so frustrating.

Because of a confluence of factors (the struggles of those on the last year of their deals; his 20 wins last year) I think the single marker of the direction that the front office intends to take is set out in Happ. He's the most valuable guy outside of Donaldson (and superstars don't generally move at the trade deadline) that could move at the deadline. The one thing I remain confident in is that Rogers will never sanction a rebuild. A minor retool is possible (the sheer number of articles by Rogers employed writers talking about selling suggest this is very likely). I think selling Happ falls on the side of a rebuild so I don't expect him to move but he is my bellwether.

Team defence strikes again

Remember the flack the Jays FO took for giving Happ 3 yrs and Estrada 2 instead of the other way around? Things could change, but it's sure looking like it was the right call.

It is safe to say the Blue Jays bullpen is the only thing keeping the season from being an unmitigated distaster?

The pen has been excellent. It's been a long long time since team defence was this poor.

2013 defence was awful, but this group has been arguably worse.

Agreed, Nigel. Which is why I think Ian Kinsler is the second baseman the Jays should target, because he can still defend very well. Lowrie and Kendrick are both below average.

Kinsler also gives the Jays a proper leadoff hitter and balances them with more team speed. Giving up a few prospects to get him would be worth it, IMO.

I should say "putting a package together" because he likely will not come cheap.

so my first impression of dwight smith jr is in!

he's zeke carrera 2.0.

At some point the league will accept that Smoak is sitting on offspeed pitches throughout most ABs. They have been slow to adapt as Smoak has given them 7 years of data to the contrary. Once the league adjusts we will see if Smoak's production is sustainable.

Gibbons seems to be one of the few (only?) managers who considers a 4 run lead to be a save situation, so is there a reason why Osuna is not in during an actual save situation? I mean, as long as he's not hurt it's not a bad idea to just keep Tepera in there since the lead went up to 3, but with the luck the Jays have had with injuries this season.......

Smith has a really weird  swing. Open stance+high leg kick.
Other than than he's the standard speedy left handed outfielder.
His good numbers at Buffalo suggest he can hit breaking balls.

Parmley is supposed to be similar, with more speed.

Osuna's not even in the bullpen.

Well said, ugly.

Does Tepera deserve All-Star votes? His numbers are stunning.

By next weekend, the team should finally be at full strength (minus a second baseman).

With attendance and overall interest in this team where it is, and considering they're at .500 and within striking distance of the division, there's no way they tear this thing down.If anything, I'd expect them to try and add to the core.

Jason Grilli in. Can't say I'm too confident right now.

I was confident... about losing.

And that's why it's inexcusable to be using Osuna in 4 run games. Absolutely disgusting loss.

Well, a good show of why closers matter. Flashbacks of 1984 when the pen killed a potentially great Jays team and would've done them in the next year too if Henke hadn't emerged.

I know I can be as bad as the next person when it comes to 'all relievers are interchangeable' but dang that last out can be a killer at times.

That was a gut punch. So much for the 1 run streak.

just waive the guy already.

Me thinks there are very good reasons why this team cannot get to .500.

Bringing Grilli into the game was basically conceding it. I don't know how much more evidence Gibbons needs at this point. Hopefully their promotion at the stadium or whatever it was is over now and they can release him like they should have a long time ago.

14 of Osuna's last 15 games were saves. Just the one game wasn't and that was a 4 run lead after 3 days off. You don't want your closer to sit and sit and sit. I remember Jimy Williams doing that with Henke in 1987 and the Jays missed the playoffs probably due to that among other bizarre choices by that poor manager.

If Osuna was used in a 4 run lead after he pitched the day before I could see being mad but how could Gibbons know that 2 of the next 3 games would be close? Normally Osuna is OK pitching that often anyways. Did they say why he needed tonight off? I missed it if they did (had to put 2 year old to bed and deal with her Peppa Pig addiction).

Oh well! There's another game tomorrow, but the Jays will continue to defend poorly and to score too few runs.

1) Valdez up Grilli down? The Bisons can pass Grilli's closer knowledge to relievers?
2) How about bringing Elmore up? Elmore is wasting time in Buffalo with his weak hitting OPS. Let him ride the bench while one of Goins or Barney regains his hitting in Buffalo.
3) When Carrera comes back, send Smith Jr. down. Between the older Parmley and the younger Smith Jr., the latter has more time. As this team needs outfielders, the Jays can experiment Parmley without losing past efforts in development.

Was it mentioned why Osuna wasn't used? Hurt, rest day, something else?

Poor team defence has many knock on effects. Smith's adventures led to Tepera coming on in the 8th and throwing 8 extra pitches rather than starting the 9th fresh. I don't know if that would have changed the outcome but Tepera should have been facing the last two battters not Loup and Grilli. The front office isn't getting nearly the criticism it deserves for roster construction.

Yes,there is a reason the team can't get to 500, the team is very flawed.

So many fans trying to use the 9th innng to prove their pet theories about Osuna or Gibbons or 4-run leads or anything else that fits their biases. Get a little perspective. Only 6 pitchers were available tonight, and 3 of them couldn't hold a comfortable lead in the 9th. Don't blame anyone except those 3 pitchers. Your pet theories are irrelevant.

Arden Zwelling reports Osuna was not feeling well. Apparently just sick, not injured.

i think the only thing i object to tonight was pulling loup for grilli. loup was a much better bet to finish it off.

but I mean it's high time we ditched grilli. he's unusable. we gave up on cordero and francisco much quicker than this.

The poor defense is unavoidable because Smoak is suddenly too good to remove off 1B, and Morales can't play anywhere else other than DH (very occasional 1B). With Bautista gone after this season, hopefully they will find an actual RF in 2018, but for 2017, there isn't a correct answer for the defense. The best LF and RF on the team are Pearce and Bautista, with Zeke sprinkled in. I guess they could try to trade someone (Jose) and hope the defensive upgrade makes up for the bat but he likely doesn't have much value currently.

You mean the Jays knew a reliever was unavailable before the game but were still able to justify sending down an RP for a position player? I'm stunned.

Grilli is bad, but he is not "unusable." He has 18 scoreless appearances this season, just to give one example of his occasional value.

I guarantee that most fans would have been complaining equally loudly if Loup had stayed in the game and given up another hit, or if Leone or Beliveau had come in and given up a hit. There would be second-guessing in any scenario except a win, and probably then too. That's baseball.

So now we have fans complaining about the ABSENCE of an 8-man pen. Proving that some fans always think they know better than the professionals.

A couple of reminders: 1) we don't know exactly when Osuna became unavailable; 2) It's unrealistic to assume that the mythical "Buffalo reliever" must be superior to the three major-leaguers who had a bad day.

I really don't know how you can say that the bad defence is unavoidable when the Jays in the offseason consciously chose set themselves up with
4 players whose best position is DH/1B and one competent OF. Sometimes you get exactly the outcomes you deserve.

No, I mean it's unavoidable right now. I still think they had no intention of signing Bautista but they fell into each other because of lack of other options for both sides. It was making the best out of the situation.

nah, grilli is unusable.

he gives up rockets every appearance, just gets lucky sometimes that they find gloves.

"I really don't know how you can say that the bad defence is unavoidable when the Jays in the offseason consciously chose set themselves up with 4 players whose best position is DH/1B and one competent OF. Sometimes you get exactly the outcomes you deserve."

And if they had pursued defense-first players, you'd now be complaining that the team couldn't hit because of off-season moves. The Jays didn't have a budget to go out and get players who could hit and field and Pearce and Bautista were seen as two of the best deals of the off-season (Morales definitely not). Maybe the Jays could have signed Matt Joyce instead of Pearce or something but that is definitely not the reason the Jays are not winning. Serious missed time from Donaldson, Travis, and Sanchez has been devastating but also the Jays are scoring 4.3 runs a game which is tied for Oakland at second worst in the AL. The league average has gone from 4.5 to 4.7 runs a game since last year and the Jays have gone from 4.7 to 4.3 so it's not just that the Jays' offense has declined significantly, it's that their offense has declined while offense has gone up overall. You can win with a mediocre defense, but you can't win with a terrible offense. The Jays' middle infield in particular has been atrocious. Tulo, Goins, and Barney all has WRC+ under 65 and Travis was the leader with 87. You're talking about over 650 PAs with useless offense.

Just saw the 30-minute version of the game already knowing the result. That 9th inning must have been a heart breaker in real time. 4-1 lead, 2 outs, man on 2nd. That looks like a pretty winnable game, Osuna or otherwise.

It was only 98.2% at that moment, Chuck.

At the point in the off-season where the Jays signed Bautista, they needed to find the most WAR for cost. Bautista was it. Even with his defense factored in he was a projected 3 WAR player. The fact that he's been slightly above replacement level overall due to league average hitting so far is the issue more than his defense.

The bad defense from the corner OF spots is unavoidable based on the current roster, but if Pearce and Bautista start hitting like they are supposed to, then it will mitigate that weakness.

The A's are promoting Franklin Barreto, the key part of the Donaldson trade.

It has emerged that Osuna was suffering an anxiety attack last night. 

I hope everyone can deal with this sensitively.  It's a situation that the Jays must have struggled with.  They're trying to do the right thing.  It may have been unclear, even during the game last night, whether Osuna would be available or not.  The same may apply today.  Let's refrain from any expectation of simplistic answers or knee-jerk responses.  There's no easy way for a team to handle a situation like this.  And of course Osuna is the one who must struggle the hardest with this issue.  My sympathies.

I think it's fair to say, however, that this has been one of the unluckiest Jays seasons in history. 

Yes, they've had bad luck in a few other years too.  Yes, some of the 2017 problem is due to under-performance by good players and some flaws in roster construction.  But there's definitely a large amount of poor luck in the mixture this year.

Greinke comes to mind as another high-performing pitcher who had to take time off to learn how to cope with anxiety issues.

Maybe he heard about those trade rumors.
The last thing a young star needs to hear is that he might be a great trade chip.

His trade value is probably gone.
I wonder about his Gatorade sponsorship.

Speaking of trades, Jason Vargas was once in a 3 team deal that included Joe Smith and Ezequiel Carrera.

There are some valuable insights emerging from the discussion about Osuna today.  A couple of good tweets from Jonah Keri, for example:

Sports are bad in many ways, but a player and team being willing to deal with mental illness openly and honestly is so welcome and needed.

Also Osuna is 22 and incredible at his job...helpful reminder that the mind can torture even when everything looks perfect from the outside.

Damn. As someone who is dealing with anxiety, panic attacks, and agoraphobia I can totally sympathize. It must have been bad for him to ask for time off, I've been dealing with it for years and most of my friends don't even know. Hopefully he can figure it out quickly, though these things can linger. Thankfully meds are pretty good these days (I wish I had gone on them a lot sooner!).

Thanks, eudaimon.  Good insights there.

This specifically is an important insight from eudaimon:  "It must have been bad for him to ask for time off."

It's almost unfathomable to think of the dilemma and struggle that a player finds himself in in this situation. Guilt, pressure, a desire to do the right thing for teammates, balanced against everything else.

Greinke was visibly struggling on and off the field in his first years with the Royals.
Osuna has been completely dominant and hasn't looked isolated to me,  but I don't know much about his personal life.
Not of lot of guys his age in the bullpen. 

It was very brave of Roberto Osuna to be open about his mental health issues.  I grew up in a time where shame and stigma was attached to mental illness, and it is very heartening to see that shame and stigma becoming less pervasive. I wish Osuna a speedy recovery.

There are so many players on this team that I am rooting for and admire for various reasons- Travis, Stroman, Martin, Pompey, Biagini, Donaldson and now Osuna.  Rarely has the club had more than two or three players who I have taken to heart. 

Steve Pearce is back in the lineup today.  Martin plays third base and Donaldson DHs.  It's a strong offensive lineup- Marco Estrada could use one of those early 6-0 leads. 

Odd thing about anxiety, in my limited exposure, is that those afflicted aren't always those whose behaviour might make you think they are afflicted. Osuna, as a ridiculously young man in the single most stressful role in MLB, seems to have ice water flowing throw his veins and would seem to be the last guy in the clubhouse you'd think would suffer from anxiety. Just a good reminder how useless our armchair observations can be.

I would like to think that the stigma that old bastards like Mike and myself grew up with are a thing of the past, but I know that the testosterone-laden sports culture isn't always as generous. But it's changing.

that's pretty shocking. osuna seems to have been as confident and assured as a young man as can be.

Other than Greinke, I think Joey Votto has battled depression, in particular after his father died. Also Keith Law suffers from anxiety disorder and is pretty open about it.

And Jim Eisenreich. He dropped out of baseball for a couple of years in his mid-twenties before coming back and playing til he was almost 40.

The OF defence is historically bad.

The outfield defence needs a Benny Hill soundtrack. Not helping Estrada today.

that's pretty shocking. osuna seems to have been as confident and assured as a young man as can be.

There's a reason they call it invisible illness. Though anxiety can totally affect confidence, it's a pretty common assumption that symptoms are visible. Most people learn to hide it - through people who don't understand giving them grief, not wanting to "let the team down" etc. etc. A million reasons. The good news is it CAN be easy to deal with. The bad news is that it can also be difficult.
This should be no big deal, as a VERY large percentage of people suffer from anxiety at one point in their lives, but it is. Hopefully it becomes less of one, and people can just do the stuff they need to deal without grief from friends, family, employers, or strangers (depending on how public a person's life is, I guess).

NB not calling anyone out for unsympathetic behaviour in this thread, in case that's not clear.

Eisenreich retired due to Tourette's, and returned either while he underwent treatment or found one that worked (I can't remember which). That would be its own, separate obstacle to a major league career.

And Chuck's reminder on arm chair observations are spot on not only in this realm but in so many others.

Thanks. I didn't recall the Eisenreich specifics.

Outfield defense has cost the Jays two runs today.

It's hard on a pitcher too.  Estrada has been pretty good today, but the final line won't show it. 

That might have been Tulo's best defensive play of the year.  Nice to see. 

Tulo looked better at the plate today too.  As losses go, I've seen worse. 

Defence also cost them yesterday.

How the Jays solve the 2B void now? Donaldson need rest too.

Some of the OF defense is the fault of coaches not players although I do realize we don't have the best defensive OF's. Pearce was too deep on his miscue today as was Smith yesterday when he almost made a sensational catch coming in. They were playing where they were told to play....the so called prevent defense which imo usually prevents you from winning more than anything else. That is true in other sports as well.

Was Pearce hurt? Is that why Morales pinch-hit for him? It seems like there would be other candidates to be pinch-hit for long before Pearce.

Ardon Zwelling has hit probabilities in his report. The ball that fell between Pillar and Bautista is a hit 14% of the time. The ball that fell in front of Pearce is a hit 17% of the time. That some sub-optimal defense right there.

Pearce' throw home was poor too - just a potpourri of OF defence issues.

After all the recalling from Buffalo, is it time to add some depth to its roster. From transactions in the IL and the PCL, OF Desmond Jennings, OF Mel Rojas Jr., 2B Grant Green, SP Kevin Chapman, IF/OF Chris Parmelee...

nah, grilli is unusable.

The Tigers released K-Rod, aged 35. Grilli showed he can save 30 plus games at age 36...

The kind words and explanations about Osuna by the Bauxites is very touching. It was good to hear. Thanks for leading this off CF.

Pompey's return to live BP is a development to watch.  If he can return to the major leagues after the All-Star break and play at a level consistent with his record (.260/.330/.400 with good defence), it would be just what the club needs.  That, and Sanchez returning.

The two dispiriting losses in Kansas City so far have not changed my opinion about the club a bit- if anything, the outlook might be a bit better.  Tulo looks to me to have shaken his funk, and Darwin Barney as well.  I see no reason that they cannot return to their performance level of the last few years.  

The two dispiriting losses in Kansas City so far have not changed my opinion about the club a bit

Says the glass half-full guy. This glass half-empty guy sees these two as games as emblematic of why a resurgence seems only modestly tenable. Frittering away winnable games is a luxury the team does not have. Maybe crummy defense -- Tulo's magnificent play notwithstanding -- exacerbate the situation and challenge my ability to be more objective.

FG has the team's playoff chances at 25% and that seems to owe more to there being no prominent 2nd wild card team than anything the Jays might be doing well.

I categorize my hope as hope and realistic hope.

3-5 games over 500 at the trade deadline is realistic hope. Realistic hope for a 86-76 won/lost record.

Raining on a parade too, Chuck?

season is slipping away. they cannot afford any cold streaks.

You have a lot more hope than I have. They are not a good team right now, and there are zero signs that is changing.

They should start looking towards next year.

In addition to Tulo's improvement, the glass-half-full faction can note that Kevin Pillar has hit better (5 hits in 13 plate appearances) since moving to a lower-pressure spot in the lineup, and that Steve Pearce has an OPS of 1.226 since his return from the DL.   Most importantly, Estrada and Happ are pitching well again, and Sanchez is close to returning.   Now if only Liriano can turn it around.

After the Yankee series 3 weeks ago, uo pointed the next 6 series would be vs sub.500 (at the time) teams. The Jays will end up winning exactly 1 of those 6 and will have to win today to avoid going 7-11 in that stretch.

That said there is no good reason for fans not to be optimistic, because even if it's totally misplaced optimism, there are zero real life consequences. Totally different for a front office.

On the subject of poor outfield defence, especially in LF:  there seems to be a definite pattern here.  If you look at who has played LF for the Jays over the past few years, the position is littered with poor defenders:  Melky Cabrera, Michael Saunders, Ezequiel Carrera, Steve Pearce, Chris Colabello....   It has really been a dumping ground for poor defenders.  Twice, in mid-season, the Jays have recognized the problem and made trades for better defenders:  Upton and Revere.  But then, at the end of the season, they were both let go, and the team reverted to worse defenders in the following season.  

If the Jays continue to follow this pattern, it's reasonable to speculate that they might upgrade at LF at the trade deadline -- unless Pompey is deemed ready by then.  The switch to stronger defence in mid-2015 (with the arrival of Tulo and Revere) played a significant role in the Jays surge to the playoffs that season.  It could be a lesson for this season too.

I don't remember Revere being a good defender in his time here. More Zeke-ish. Cola was so bad, anyone would seem better in comparison.

My recollection was that Revere was not a brilliant defender, but better than what the Jays had at the position.  So he was a defensive upgrade.  Same with Upton -- not great, but better than the alternatives.

That is correct hypobole. At a certain point of losing, heads will roll in the FO.

IMO it looks like the FO is safe for next year, because of last years success.

I expect a few changes in the players. Injuries aside, I feel that the offense and defense was not good enough. I expected a healthy Donaldson. Expected injuries to Tulo and Travis, sort of. And I expected better health from Martin.

Add the pitching injuries into the equation and we are doing ok IMO.

I now believe that Gibbons should get some credit.

I disagree about the FO. I think they are safe for at least 5 -7 years. Most of the problems the club is experiencing are not of their making. If a pivot is made, they will be given time to see it through. Shapiro, being the President, will have a longer shelf life than Atkins.

Before the all-star break the Jays play the Orioles, Rays, Yankees and Astros. They need to win more of those games than they lose.

Even though the team has shown glimpses of their potential I am more of a glass half empty guy right now. However I could see them trade some players before the deadline and then start playing better.

There's an extensive and interesting article on Bo Bichette at Sportsnet.ca. I must admit I knew nothing about him except what I've seen on this site but after reading this story I'm very excited about his potential and the fact that he may crack the Jay's lineup in the not-too-distant future.

I got one team wrong. The Jays face Baltimore, Boston, Yankees and Houston. That's 13 games. The Jays really need to go 8-5 or better. 7-6 would leave the Jays 42-45. Even 8-5 would leave the Jays one game under .500.

There will be 73 games left after the all-star break. Playing .600 would win 44 games.

I'm the glass is exactly half full. I think that the team can and will play better but in the end it just isn't quite good enough. The whole of this team is less than the sum of its parts. My only wish is that the front office buys, sells or reshuffles asserts at the deadline rather than do nothing and hope and prey that the team is good enough. Just pick one. I'd buy/reshuffle if it were me but selling also would be understandable.

Actually Melky in 2014 was better in left than Revere the following year.

The only Jays 2013-2017 who played 100 innings in LF in any of those seasons and graded out plus by both DRS and UZR:
Pillar 2013
Pillar 2015
Carrera 2016.

So on the whole, CF, is right about the long standing tradition. The 3 above totalled about 600 innings in LF, so even accounting for the few guys with sub 100 innings of plus D, about 90% of the time the past 5 years Jays have had substandard to horrible D in LF.

For anyone who wants to buy, what assets would we have to give up to get a real upgrade?

Bichette, Vlad, probably Alford would definitely work, but does anyone want that to happen? Guys like Tellez, Harris, Pentacost won't get anything that moves the needle. Sell low on guys like Urena, Greene, SRF?

Thanks for the stats, hypobole. Didn't realize that Revere graded so poorly -- and I'm especially surprised that the stats show Cabrera (2014) as being better than Revere. I guess Cabrera improved after that tumour was removed after the 2013 season.

The FO is safe for quite a few years. This is still AA's team basically. Current management will get their chance to start building their team soon.

I agree 100% BlueJayWay.

The FO is responsible for significantly more than 50% of this year's budget. Why do they continue to get such a pass?

just looking at new guys the FO brought in (not just brought back):


Biagini 0.5m 1.5war
Smith 3.0m 0.9war
Happ 13.0m 0.9war
Leone 0.5m 0.4war
Morales 11.0m 0.1war
Liriano 13.0m 0.4war
Beliveau 0.5m 0.0war
Campos 0.5m 0.0war
Bolsinger 1.0m 0.0war
Pearce 6.0m -0.1war
Howell 3.0m -0.1war
Valdez 0.5m -0.1war
Latos 1.0m -0.3war
Coghlan 0.5m -0.5war
Salty 0.5m -0.6war
Grilli 3.0m -0.7war
Maile 0.5m -0.8war


58.0m 1.0war

oh and gurriel's 3m.

The FO is responsible for significantly more than 50% of this year's budget. Why do they continue to get such a pass?

Yeah, there are some roster construction issues here - players who seen in isolation are useful guys who can help you win, but as a group don't quite work the way you'd like.

The Jays haven't been getting a whole lot of people on base - they rank 24th in the majors in OBPct. But despite this handicap, they've still managed to hit into more double plays than anyone. And while this may be the traditional curse of teams managed by John Gibbons, you could see this one coming a mile away. You have a whole bunch of RH hitters who don't run all that great. That's the formula for 150 GIDPs. Always has been, always will be.

Hey, that's the Ryan Goins I remember.

One thing about those players, uglyone, is that many of them were a breif and inexpensive attempt to see whether there was anything left in the tank. When there wasn't, the team moved on from the player.

The amount of aggregate value the Jays have received from their big-money players like Tulowitzki, Donaldson, and Martin has also been very low on a $/WAR basis. And one reason the team has had to rely on the scrubs is because Anthopoulos's expensive veterans have been injured so much.

Shapiro is more than safe. Atkins will stay as long as Shapiro wants him here. The reality is they took over a playoff team with a short shelf-life of contention. They tried to extend the window for as long as they could, but eventually the bubble was going to burst. Despite that they still put a team together that was projected to be a playoff team prior to the start of the season. Injuries and a putrid April have hurt that possibility. Even if you subtract Morales and added Edwin, that's one extra win for double the investment (to this point). Nothing was going to prevent the inevitable. Other than signing Morales for way too long (or in general), what moves could have been avoided that would have changed anything? Pompey is hurt so he didn't have a chance to take the LF job. Other than him, the upper minors is barren. The team's best prospects are a few years away. This roster was not and is not a roster designed for long-term contention. Not unless they strategically start to trade vets away to get younger.

If this team has to rebuild, then Shapiro will be the one doing it. That's a no brainer. He's given no reason to think or hope for otherwise based on what he's done since taking over, even if you don't agree with everything he's done.

"....This roster was not and is not a roster designed for long-term contention..."

Is there really such a thing as a guaranteed perennial playoff contender?  Nobody can engineer that.  You seize your opportunities as they arise.

And are we really debating whether Rogers would fire Shapiro and Atkins (or one of them) after less than two years on the job?  This seems like a non-issue.  They get a few years to do their thing.  Let's see how they do.

yeah, how many consecutive years of contention counts as "longterm" anywayz?

Pillar has two hits and a walk today. He now has 7 hits in his past 15 ABs. The first six weeks of the season might not have been a mirage after all.

Also very significant to see Bautista hitting so stronly in the leadoff spot. The new lineup could be a keeper.

Some good infield defence today.

Cain... Hosmer... That's some dumb baseball right there.

No matter whether Hosmer is out or safe, that was terrible baserunning by Cain.

Wasn't even base-running.  It was base-sauntering.   Or base-ambling.  Base-strolling,

"Is there really such a thing as a guaranteed perennial playoff contender? Nobody can engineer that. You seize your opportunities as they arise."


Of course nothing is guaranteed, but an older team with no depth in the upper minors is a lot less likely to become a consistent contender than a team with younger talent at the big league level and depth in the upper minors. The best thing to happen to the Jays would be to keep winning until the Vlad's and Bichette's reach AAA, then they'd have difference makers on the horizon in addition to a big league playoff team, but stretching out the timeline will be the hard part.

that was terrible baserunning by Cain.

He was probably so shocked that Hosmer tried to get two bases out of it - because why would you do that? - that his mind and muscles stopped functioning normally. He actually slowed down to watch as he approached home plate.

"....a team with younger talent at the big league level and depth in the upper minors...."

I think you're exaggerating what the Jays would be today if they hadn't made the 2015 trades.  If the Jays had not made those trades, they would have had Hoffman, Norris, Boyd, Castro, and a few fringe low-minor prospects.  Those three or four players wouldn't have created both a "young" major-league team and "depth" in the minors. 

I suppose you'd like to include the 2013 trades too, but that's a very different equation because the Jays were trying to get into the playoffs in 2013.  They made two big pushes for the playoffs (2013 and 2015), and they reached the playoffs in 2015 and 2016.  That's success, in my view.  The alternative -- without the trades -- would have meant no playoffs, no attendance spike, no excitement, no financial boom for the organization, and long-term decline.  It wouldn't have created the idyllic future that you're portraying.

They umps really came through today.

They could have easily swept the Royals in this series.
All they got is one win and if they're like me, they don't feel like sending Sparkman back to KC next week.

It was great to have Osuna back, and sweet to win by a large margin on a day when the club went 2-17 with runners in scoring position. 

This series righted the balance.  The club is now 36-39 and is full value for that mediocre record, with a 12-9 record in one-run games.  They have been very unlucky with injuries, but fortunate that the division has not run away from them. 

3 big series up now. Time to make our move. Now or never.

If the Jays had swept this series, which they very well could have, they'd be sitting just 3 games out of first right now. As it is they're only 5 out of the division and 3.5 out of a wild card spot. OTOH they've been pretty mediocre all year. What to do....

They don't have anything major to sell, but they probably need help at 2B to stay in contention.
The pitching will improve by getting Sanchez back.

The attendance is probably more important than the number of games back.
They're not selling without empty seats.

Past Calendar Year wRC+ and ERA-

donaldson 152 - betts 133 ------ sanchez 163
smoak 124 ----- ramirez 132 ---- judge 163
morales 123 --- pedroia 110 ---- holliday 120
martin 116 ---- benintendi 105 - hicks 111
bautista 110 -- bogaerts 103 --- castro 110
travis 107 ------ bradley 102 ---- gregorius 104
tulowitzki 98 - moreland 99 ---- gardner 102
pearce 97 ------- leon 99 ----------- austin 95
pillar 83 --------- sandoval 58 ---- headley 92

carrera 84 ---- young 106 ------ ellsbury 90
barney 64 ----- holt 89 ----------- torreyes 81
goins 61 ------ vazquez 83 ----- refsnyder 53
maile 29 ------ marrero 20 ----- romine 52



sanchez 67 --- sale 76 ---------- montgomery 85
happ 75 -------- porcello 80 ----- pineda 89
stroman 84 --- pomeranz 86 -- sabathia 98
estrada 106 -- rodriguez 87 --- severino 100
liriano 112 ---- price 90 ---------- tanaka 100
biagini 111 ---- fister 145 -------- cessa 104

osuna 68 ----- kimbrel 55 --- chapman 34
barnes 63 ---- kelly 24 -------- green 27
tepera 65 ---- scott 42 -------- betances 155
biagini 74 --- hembree 79 --- shreve 73
smith 76 ----- boyer 88 -------- warren 89
loup 78 ------ abad 98 --------- holder 96
leone 102 ---- barnes 101 --- clippard 99
howell 109 --- ramirez 90 --- layne 107
grilli 117 ----- ross 96 --------- mitchell 127

Hyperbole, you asked what those in favour of buying would do. I'm only marginally in that camp but I'll give it a shot. I would start by extending one of Estrada or Liriano (yes, Liriano, I think there's a useful 4/5 starter in there). Then I would offer to sell any one (or even better two) of Bautista, Morales, Pearce or Smoak along with one of Greene or SRF for a legitimate OF (maybe an expiring contract 2B as well). I don't think it's a stretch to imagine a Pearce/Greene combination getting you a league average OF. It's not just what you get back, it's also using what remains better.

The thing about this offseason's moves was that you could squint and see the logic (even signing Morales although that was the hardest) in each move independently; it's just that all together they made no sense. That's not fatal for a front office but they definitely shouldn't get the pass that they have been to date for what they put together here. AA sacrificed some prospects but this front office owns the majority (some good, some bad) in the current roster.

Smoak for Gardner? 

"I think you're exaggerating what the Jays would be today if they hadn't made the 2015 trades. If the Jays had not made those trades, they would have had Hoffman, Norris, Boyd, Castro, and a few fringe low-minor prospects. Those three or four players wouldn't have created both a "young" major-league team and "depth" in the minors."

Trading even this small crop had a huge effect.
1) On actual talent. Hoffman, Norris, and Boyd have a combined 3 WAR this season. That's the same as Sanchez, Stroman, and Biagini combined.
2) Cost. Obviously, cheap major league talent means that money can be spent other places and more financial flexibility.
3) Pieces to trade. Right now, the Jays have very few assets that would fetch any significant return. Hoffman or Norris could both be pieces in getting something back (or give the Jays room to trade other prospects).

The Jays have got basically nothing from their minor leagues for a year and a half. Danny Barnes is the best rookie from the AA years in the last 2 years. Dwight Smith is already the second best. The Yankees have had Sanchez, Judge, and Montgomery. The Red Sox got Sale, Pomeranz, and Benditendi from their system. It's extremely hard to compete when you are getting nothing from your system for an extended period. You need to refresh existing talent but also need the ability to make moves.

At first glance the David Price trade was unnecessary and a waste of resources, but it lead to the Red Sox sinking 300M into Price. There's a lot of value in that.  That luxury salary cap is real.

"I think you're exaggerating what the Jays would be today if they hadn't made the 2015 trades. If the Jays had not made those trades, they would have had Hoffman, Norris, Boyd, Castro, and a few fringe low-minor prospects. Those three or four players wouldn't have created both a "young" major-league team and "depth" in the minors."


I wasn't referring to what they would have been without the 2015 trade deadline, just referring to what they actually are now (an old team with a barren upper minors). You can only push that sort of roster to a certain point before it bottoms out. There is a reason why the team was counting on replacement level vets when guys got hurt, and it's because there were no prospects to take over. Alford wasn't ready when they called him up, and Smith prior to this season looked like a fringe prospect (remains to be seen if he is a viable MLB option going forward).

The Jays got as much as they could out of AA's trades in 2013-15. It's still possible they could sneak into a WC spot this season. Ultimately, this roster has a shelf-life, and it would have had one even if Edwin was DH right now instead of Morales, or Fowler was in RF instead of Bautista.

Obviously building a younger, more sustainable roster is not going to guarantee the playoffs every year, but it gives the team a better chance to do it over a longer period of time. Cheap, controllable young players are a premium. The Jays have some, but not enough, especially on the position player side. Travis is the best one they have and he hasn't been able to stay healthy for the last four seasons.

Hoffman/Norris/Boyd: 168.1ip, 4.92era

Team AA-Sold-The-Farm


1. 3B Lawrie (27): 2417pa, 100wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
2. LF Thames (29): 979pa, 108wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
3. DH D'Arnaud (28): 1233pa, 96wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
4. C Gomes (29): 1785pa, 90wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
5. RF Snider (29): 1971pa, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
6. 1B Wallace (30): 1440pa, 94wrc+, -0.4war/650pa
7. CF Marisnick (26): 1167pa, 73wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
8. SS Hechavarria (28): 2402pa, 70wrc+, 0.5war/650pa
9. 2B Barreto (21): 10pa, 197wrc+, 13.0war/650pa

UT Lugo (22): AA 472pa, 117wrc+
OF Gose (26): 1252pa, 81wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
OF Becerra (22): A+ 544pa, 106wrc+
IF Pastornicky (27): 268pa, 67wrc+, -4.0war/650pa
C Perez (25): 587pa, 64wrc+, 1.2war/650pa



SP Syndergaard (24): 59gs, 76era-, 5.1war/32gs
SP Desclafani (27): 56gs, 101era-, 2.5war/32gs
SP Alvarez (27): 92gs, 97era-, 2.2war/32gs
SP Norris (24): 41gs, 94era-, 2.2war/32gs
SP Graveman (26): 60gs, 101era-, 1.9war/32gs

SP Hoffman (24): 12gs, 93era-, 1.6war/32gs
SP Musgrove (24): 23gs, 125era-, 0.9war/32gs
SP Nicolino (25): 30gs, 118era-, 0.5war/32gs
SP Boyd (26): 41gs, 137era-, 0.1war/32gs
SP DeJong (23): 4gs, 186era-, -2.0war/32gs

SP Nolin (27): 7gs, 174era-, -1.6war/32gs
SP Wojciechowski (28): 7gs, 205era-, -2.1war/32gs


RP Dyson (29): 218.0ip, 82era-, 0.6war/65ip
RP Collins (27): 211.0ip, 87era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Rzepczynski (31): 284.1ip, 90era-, 0.3war/65ip
RP Castro (22): 43.1ip, 123era-, -0.9war/65ip
RP Stewart (30): 28.2ip, 119era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Magnuson (31): 14.2ip, 155era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Rollins (27): 34.1ip, 194era-, -1.1war/65ip

RP Comer (24): AAA 39.2ip, 2.04era, 3.09fip, 3.87xfip
RP Cordero (25): AAA 1.1ip, 27.00era, 6.17fip, 7.76xfip
RP Molina (28): AAA 4.0ip, 13.50era, 8.41fip, 3.53xfip
RP Labourt (23): AA 25.1ip, 1.42era, 1.56fip, 2.42xfip
RP Tirado (22): A+ 135.0ip, 3.53era, 4.62fip, 4.11xfip
RP Tinoco (22): A+ 74.0ip, 6.32era, 5.09fip, 5.05xfip
RP Wells (21): A 151.2ip, 5.99era, 5.13fip, 4.44xfip

2B Barreto (21): 10pa, 197wrc+, 13.0war/650pa

He's clearly going to leave Rogers Hornsby in his wake.

Personally, I prefer to look forward- ever mindful of one of Satchel Paige's rules for long living.  Here is what the club looks like to me in depth chart form for 2019 as of today:

C- Martin, Maile, Jansen
1B- Smoak, Tellez
2B- Travis, Goins, Leblebijian
SS- Tulo, Urena
3B-
OF- Pillar, Alford, Pompey, Carrera, D. Smith Jr
DH- Morales

Unknown Position/Readiness- Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Gurriel, Pentecost

P- Stroman, Sanchez, Biagini, Osuna, Barnes, Tepera, Leone, Zeuch, Maese, Greene, SRF, Borucki, Perdomo, Rios, Sparkman

It's a little thin, but the payroll commitments are modest. The obvious questions are Donaldson and another starter.

I think the Bauxites are seeing the same thing as the FO.

What to do 1 month from now and also consider the next 2-3 years.

The record 1 month from now will dictate the moves for the rest of this season.

Next year and future years picture is getting clearer. Martin's and Tulo's contracts can be moved or will expire. Vlad Jr and Bichette could be here or close.

Speaking of veterans, it is time for Jason Grilli to hang up his Bar-B-Boss.  He's at -1.66 WPA for the year.  Perhaps Sanchez' return will be the occasion for it.

2019

CF Pompey 26
RF Alford 24
LF Pillar 30
3B Tulowitzki 34
SS Urena 23
2B Travis 28
1B Smoak 32
DH Morales 36
C Martin 36

UT Tellez 24
OF Smith 26
IF Gurriel 25
C Jansen 24

X Bichette 21, Guerrero 20


SP Stroman 28
SP Sanchez 26
SP Osuna 24
SP Reid-Foley 23
SP Zeuch 23
SP Maese 22

RP Biagini 29
RP Barnes 28
RP Tepera 31
RP Loup 31
RP Greene 24
RP Leone 27
RP Borucki 25
RP Rios 24



That roster comes in well under $100m I think.

sparkman's friday deadline might be enough to get grilli dropped.

might not be much under 100 losses either depending on the progression or lack of progression from the prospects.

with $100m in payroll to spare they could probably take away some of those losses, though.

My first post here - lurked since 2009

Interesting story regarding the issue of Anxiety/Mental Health and how professional sports lag behind other work environments in dealing properly with this important issue.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/basketball/2017/01/24/royce-white-works-to-raise-his-game-and-awareness-about-mental-health.html

2B Barreto (21): 10pa, 197wrc+, 13.0war/650pa

I hate it when teams let 13 WAR players slip away.

welcome, Deuce!


on another note, shockingly it seems like Justin Smoak might not only make the all-star game, but might actually get voted as a starter. in 2nd place right now behind hosmer.

the only thing more shocking than that, of course, is that he actually deserves it.

"Smoak for Gardner?"

This looks like a fairly equitable trade. Don't know if the Yankees would do it with Bird returning fairly soon (unless they've lost faith in him) and a not healthy outfield group.

The Pearce/Greene trade for a league average outfielder makes less sense, to me at least. If the trade is with a contender, I can't see them downgrading just to pick up Greene. And a non-contender would have no use for Pearce; they'd be after a prospect/youngster package. Not saying impossible though if some team wants to shed salary - maybe if there are no other offers for a guy like Curtis Granderson.

The Yankee outfield ranks are thin given Ellsbury's health. As such, I'd imagine they'd be hesitant to move Gardner and might instead prefer to make a play for an impending FA like Yonder Alonso, who'd presumably cost them very little.

I'd guess there are other over-achieving first basemen who'd be cheaply available, but none spring to mind (other than Alonso).

Ellsbury is back after his concussion, but Hicks is DL'd (3-4 weeks?).

Thank you uglyone! Good to be here.

Amazing growth by Smoak this year. Hope his consistency carries deep into October.

Ellsbury is back after his concussion, but Hicks is DL'd (3-4 weeks?).

Okay, even worse than I thought! More incentive to hang on to Gardner.

Anyone have an interest in Denard Span?  I imagine he'd play a decent corner outfield still. His contract is such that you probably wouldn't have to give up much to get him. 

Seth Smith is another name I wonder about. I assume the O's probably wouldn't want to move him inter division. His cost can't be high either.

Denard Span has maybe the weirdest defensive profile I've seen on FG. +5.4 UZR/150, -14 DRS.

All in CF though, he hasn't played a corner in 8 years.

still don't see room to add a 1B.

2B has to be the priority i'd still say, unless travis is ok.

sheesh. I mean I still don't see us adding an OF, not 1B.

and sheesh #2 I also mean that we should be looking for a 2B regardless of whether we think travis can make it back before the end of the year. these are valuable months here.

I don't see room for an OF either. I doubt that a 2b is on the immediate horizon either.

The other asset (in addition to prospects) that large revenue clubs use is taking on dead money. If only Rogers acted like a large revenue club. For example, Seattle has 4 outfielders and some OF prospects. I wonder what the cost of Dyson would be if you agreed to take the remaining contracts of Gallardo and Martin off their hands as well?

Peter, I agree. I am not expecting the front office to buy or sell.

Dyson has been their 2nd best position player. They are in the playoff hunt, 1 1/2 games ahead of us.I'm not understanding their rationale for trading Dyson.

With Semien on the way back and Barreto up, Lowrie would be a good target.

Rays pick up Hech.

I agree that a second baseman is needed.  Lowrie would be better than Goins, but Lowrie's first half-performance is not likely to be repeated. 

A corner outfielder who can play the position is also needed.  Steve Pearce or Jose Bautista do not qualify.  And frankly, the odds that those two can remain together in the lineup in the outfield for more than about 3 weeks are low. 

The Mets are the obvious place to look if you're flexing financial muscles. The prospect cost to acquire Granderson or Bruce to help in the OF should be pretty minimal if you're taking on their salary. Asdrubal Cabrera would be a nice pickup for 2B, but he'd have to be willing to move positions, something he has voiced displeasure over in NY.

well, smith is here, I thought I heard pompey was about ready to start playing again, alford's a month deep into his 4-6 week injury, and I don't think zeke's was a season ender either.

Zeke is on rehab, leading off for Buffalo tonight.

I thought that Carrera's injury was much more serious than that.  Good news.

Carrera is DHing tonight. 

I would have thought that he would (minimally) be in a boot for 2 weeks, and would need more rehab prior to seeing game action. I'm not a doctor though...

They Jays are committed to Bautista in right field and I doubt there's a market for selling him.

Pearce can only play LF unless Morales or Smoak are injuried.
Pompey should eventually replace Smith in the outfield and I'm not expecting Alford back until September, he's burned enough service time as it is.

2B is an easy upgrade, but that's about it.

Watching Smith Jr must be a great motivator for Carrera to get better and I'm not even talking about his health.

From mlbtr,

DFA'ed:
C Derek Norris aged 28, to replace Maile
IF Aaron Hill aged 35
Released
OF Micheal Saunder only to Buffalo?
R/L CF Ryan LaMarre
CL K-Rod
P Edwin Jackson

None of these players appears interesting? Asher Wojciechowski who holds a 67 ERA+ cleared waivers. Edwin Jackson holds 64 ERA+ so he plays at Triple-A even if he would be signed.

I think Norris would be a good pick-up. There is no possible way Maile's defense is good enough to make up for his bat. If there is a stat out there that suggests otherwise, I'd love to see it.

The ballsy move right now would be to trade Jose, if he accepts it, and find a RF to replace him. Something like trade Bautista and get Granderson in a separate trade. Probably not likely, but I'd rather have Pearce than Jose at this point (Pearce's contract is good value while Bautista is expensive/out the door after this season). Finding a taker willing to give up value for him plus getting him to accept a trade would be the hurdles. Granderson in RF and then Pearce/Zeke/Pompey covering LF depending on who is healthy at the moment would suffice.

2B definitely has to be upgraded. I still like Howie Kendrick since he can play 2B and LF, covering two question marks at once.

K-Rod signed with Washington already.

Aaron Hill had a 32 OPS+ for the Giants this year, and was last over 90 in 2013. He has been a net negative for WAR 3 of the past 4 years with his defense a net negative according to B-R for 5 years now.

Saunders I'd give a AAA deal to (I'd give one to almost anyone) but wouldn't expect anything.

Derek Norris is another defense only guy, might as well stick with Maile. If he'd take a AAA deal, why not.

I still like Howie Kendrick since he can play 2B and LF, covering two question marks at once.

A poor-man option is getting Dustin Ackley. Is he still a good player as once discussed here while he is a past first rounder? He plays 2B and LF. Meanwhile, I just bring Jake Elmore up from Buffalo. Let him take a bench spot while Barney regains hitting in Buffalo. At least we know Elmore can get on base.... and Goins keep playing defense.... Someone can just ask why keep Barney if Elmore is up. I read on this sties weeks ago that second basemen are rare resources so far this season. Let Barney regain his value in Buffalo while Elmore just gets on base for his own value.

K-Rod signed with Washington already.

The Brewers released aged 29 Neftali Feliz. How well the coaching in Buffalo and Toronto help relievers regain dominance?

Cyber, Feliz pitched against in KC Sunday. He's a Royal.

Ackley is no better than Goins anymore.

I would have no problem if Norris replaced Maile though. In fact, I would very much approve.

I think the only second baseman available worth giving up any prospect's' or value is Ian Kinsler. He's a free agent after the season (perfect, since Travis will be back for '17), but has an option for '18 if the Jays believe Travis won't be able to stay healthy. Kinsler hits about as well as Travis does (maybe even better at RC) and adds a dimension of speed and base-stealing that the current team lacks.
His defence has regressed a little, but he's still above average.

The Tigers don't have an everyday center fielder to patrol the massive CF at Comerica Park since they traded Maybin early this past off-season. They were hoping Jacoby Jones would be ready, but he isn't. I wonder if the Tigers would do a Pillar+Urena/SRF/Connor Greene for Kinsler.

Massive overpayment. No way this happens.

There is some interesting speed numbers posted today at mlb.com and at baseball savant. One surprise, Kendrys Morales is not the slowest Blue Jay, Justin Smoak is. In general the Jays are a slow team.

Smoak, Tulowitzki and Bautista are the slowest in MLB at their positions. Morales is not the slowest DH, Albert Pujols and Victor Martinez are slower. Donaldson is in the bottom quadrant. The other Blue Jays are average, I don't believe we are top ten in any position, maybe not even top half.

Ackley is no better than Goins anymore.

Johnny Giovatella was also mentioned here. However, the Orioles did not call him up despite J J Hardy and Ryan Flaherty were injured. Ruben Tejeda was traded for to fill their shortstop hole. If in-house assumption was perferred, Giovatella would have replaced Flaherty... Does Orioles' roster management shed lights on how well Giovatella play this season? Anyway, As Orioles need shortstop, trade Jonathan Diaz or Gregorio Petit for Giovatella. Then Orioles can just bring Petit up to replace Paul Janis -- Petit hits better than Janish?

These are the average of the fastest 10 sprint speeds recorded.  There are sample size issues.  Travis is considerably faster at peak speed than recorded there.  It's interesting to know that Morales does have a gear other than extremely slow (we saw it when he scored from first on the double), but he uses it extremely rarely.

The Blue Jays are an extremely poor base-running club, the 2nd worst in MLB according to fangraphs' metric.  They are slow and on average do not run the bases well.  The exceptions are Travis, Donaldson and (even with the bonehead moves) Carrera. Goins runs the bases well for a player of average speed.   Pompey would probably be the best baserunner on the club if he were here.

In general the Jays are a slow team.

Looking at our IF choices in Buffalo,
Name, Bisons OPS, 2017 SB/CS, Career MiLB SB/CS, Career MLB SB/CS if applicable
Jon Berti, .297, 4/0, 216/66. N/A
Chris Lopes, .769, 13/4, 38/15, N/A
Shane Optiz, .622, 4/3, 40/18, N/A
Jason Leblebijian .843, 3/0, 47/21, N/A
Jonathan Diaz, .637, 1/1. 75/44, 1/0
Gregorio Petit .711, 0/0, 70/47, 1/2
Jake Elmore .549, 9/6, 148/71, 4/10

Which one do you bring up? He need to get on-base enough to steal some bases, play adequate defense -- Goins can cover the rest.

Here's an indicator of error bars with the Baseball Savant numbers.  According to the numbers, Billy Hamilton's max speed in 2015 was 29.3 mph, 30.2 mph in 2016 and 30.1 mph in 2017.  There's no way that he gained speed between 2015 and 2017.  The fastest Blue Jay over the last 3 years was, wait for it, Junior Lake at 29 mph.  That is probably accurate- although I am not sure that he would have defeated Pompey in a footrace. 

Giavotella steal more bases than Ackley throughout their careers. Given that the Jays is a slow team, take Giavotella then. Does a past second rounder differ much than a past first rounder? Meanwhile, may we demote either Barney or Goins?

Donaldson is in the bottom quadrant.

I would think this is because of running gingerly, with a barking calf. Subjectively, he seems fast by third baseman standards.

On a different note - Travis d'Arnaud appears close to being given up on by the Mets. Between injuries and now an inability to hit they appear fed up with him (218/282/444 this year for an 88 OPS+ after a 71 last year) He now is at 242/307/400 95 OPS+ lifetime. His defensive WAR (via BR) is negative all but this year where he has a 0.1 He is into arbitration now so getting expensive for a guy who is hurt a lot and is not really hitting and isn't really fielding that well either. Funny to think he was the scariest piece given up back in 2012. Lifetime WAR of 1.0 for the Mets. Martin has been a +6.0 so far for the Jays btw. Luke Maile a -0.4 due to his nightmare bat (-7 OPS+ ... yes, negative).

Aaron Sanchez starts for Dunedin tonight.

Chris Smith is being called up by the Jays for tonights game.

Yeah the thing about TDA is that he's a catcher in name only. He's really not good back there.

I was never upset about trading him. Always thought he was a good sell high prospect.

Thor, on the other hand....

There is no possible way Maile's defense is good enough to make up for his bat. If there is a stat out there that suggests otherwise, I'd love to see it.

I don't have that stat, but I MOST CERTAINLY think it's possible that Maile's glove makes up for his bat. Virtually all back-up catchers are bad hitters -- the net difference between Maile and an average backup Catcher is probably .100 points of average and .200 points of OPS -- he costs us an extra hit and 2 extra bases every 10 ABs or 2-3 starts. But as a defensive catcher, he's better than league average. His catcher ERA is a 0.5 to 0.6 runs per game better than an average big league catcher (starters and backups). So as a very basic measure compared to a replacement - he costs us 1 base on offense every time he starts... but saves us 0.5 runs. So it's certainly possible...

Maile's glove and handling of pitchers more than makes up for his bat. Don't need stats to see that.

Maile's glove and handling of pitchers more than makes up for his bat. Don't need stats to see that. Surely there's a limit though? Maile seems comfortably below that limit to me, but do we agree that there is a level below which someone can hit so that they're still a negative? I know it's not as frustrating, but Maile really isn't performing much better than Thole.

So far in his career maile's glove has actually pretty much made up for his bat, according to bwar.

though this year he has been a bit TOO useless with the bat for even his glove to make up for it.

"handling of pitchers" is almost entirely subjective. In some cases people see what's not there.

Obviously the Jays believe so. Otherwise, he wouldn't be here. And he will hit a bit better than he has so far if he reverts to career norm.

Grilli packing up his locker, according to Hazel Mae.

a 40 man move is not necessary for Chris Smith....so maybe Sparkman as well?

Confirmed. Grilli has been Designated for Assignment.

Zeke and (Chris) Smith up, Grilli DFA, and (Dwight) Smith Jr, optioned, according to Davidi.

Why send Smith down and keep Parmley up?

Gibby saw Smith play LF.

Parmley has more speed and the team definitely needs that on the bench. With Carrera back and Pearce healthy there's little reason to keep Smith Jr. around.

There's a good chance Parmley is only here for another 3 days when a decision has to be made on Sparkman.

But i mean why is parmley up here anyways? a 5th OF?

As much as I've ripped on him I would not mind seeing Grilli clear and accept an assignment to buffalo.

Smith is probably better served getting full-time ABs in AAA rather than sitting on the bench in the majors. Parmley isn't much of a prospect, so it doesn't matter as much. Plus, Parmley is legit fast so he could be used as a pinch runner when needed.

Smith has been a better than average OF in the minors......certainly much better then Carrera. Gibby likes Zeke and is not going to see his job taken due to injury. The FO likely wants Smith getting regular AB's as well. He will return.

Presumably Parmley is here as a pinch-runner (for Morales/Smoak/et al.) when Zeke is in the game. 

McCown tweets we're gonna sign Saunders and send him to buffalo.

Zeke's return is excellent news.  I presume that this means he is ready to play the outfield.  It would be strange to call him up for any other purpose. 

While we are talking Parmley, I've got to give him some major props for the underdog made good story - I think he's the last of AA's cheap uni senior signings in the org - if he gets a full week of the major league min. salary, thats about 4x his signing bonus.  I wrote a few weeks back that if everything broke right for him he could be a 5th OF, and then he promptly cooled off.  This might be the guy's only stint in the bigs, so I hope he's having fun!  

McCown tweets we're gonna sign Saunders and send him to buffalo.

I hope not. He's better than his last year, but not what this team needs. Though, I guess if he doesn't block anyone young at AAA, having a guy who can help that team win and be interesting has value to not losing the Buffalo affiliate. 

I love seeing guys like Parmley get their shot - guys who should've been happy just getting a shot at being a pro player. Now he will have health care and a pension when he hits 65 iirc - anyone with 1 day of service time in the majors gets that. And in the USA today that is worth more than ever.

Huh, didn't notice Parmley had been called up earlier. 4 guys from the 2012 draft have made the majors, but just Stroman of any real value so far. Chase De Jong and Anthony Alford are the other 2.

For Jays picked in the 7th round all time, you get 41 players, 11 reached, only Casey Blake had significant value at 24.9 WAR, then Cris Carpenter (not the Jays pitcher) who was unsigned but got 2.5 WAR after signing another day with another club. Plus Eric Thames with his 0.6 WAR (negative pre-2017 thanks to horrific defense).

Ian Parmley with just 3 PA (0-3) is probably at 0 still. Hopefully he does something and gets enough playing time to climb the pension list. Takes 10 years for a full one iirc (around $120k a year iirc).

Ah, here are the details...
MLB players must play 43 days in the majors to earn a minimum $34,000 annual pension plan. Just one day in the majors gets them lifetime healthcare coverage. After 10 years in the big leagues, benefits grow to $100,000 annually.

Sure beats the sad NFL system.
The NFL is an organization that rewards the number of active seasons in both their pension and 401k plan. The pension, which players become eligible for at age 55, gives them $470/month ($5640 a year) for each season they played. A player with 4 seasons would get $1880/month starting at age 55, for the rest of their life

Saunders could be a back up plan in case they decide to trade Bautista at deadline. He is tradable IF the Jays are willing to eat the remaining money on contract, which they might as it is already in budget. It would essentially be buying a prospect.

Bautista is playing at replacement level and he's not considered a positive presence in a clubhouse.

When they got Upton last year he was at 1.8 bWAR for the year. Bautista is at -0.1. Nobody is giving a prospect for him.
Even if the Jays are sellers, Rogers will keep him and let him reach new club milestones... He needs 65 walks to pass Delgado, he needs 5 RBIs to pass Bell, etc...

Saunders

If the Jays signs him to play in Buffalo, is he paid the major league minimum salary? I assume the Phillies had already bought out his contract.