Scott Feldman is their ace.  He didn't leave me with good impressions last year.

Wojciechowski has pitched 4 innings out of the bullpen. He might not have a lot of bullets either.
He has a good ERA as a 28 year old AAA starter, but he only averaged 5 innings per starts.

Donaldson ran that one out like he normally does.  That is excellent news.

https://youtu.be/SGZqDzb__bw

This week's pitching sets up nicely if they can avoid using their high leverage relievers tonight.

Smoak now hitting .286/.348/.565 with 12 HR.

That .565 slugging moves Smoak up to 5th in the AL.

A few years ago, the Stephenson guy who gave up 7 runs in his 2 innings was a consensus Top 20 prospect.

Has a team ever brought in a position player to pitch in a blowout win?

We don't know a lot about prospects generally but hard throwing pitchers tend to have the widest range of outcomes (due to health, control and being pitchers). Take Greene, for example, I think the the range of reasonably possible outcomes from him range from AAAA pitcher to an above average MLB starter.

Let's try and get this Smoak guy extended. He's the most obvious high upside guy on the roster!

This  team needed a laugher. Hopefully the beast is awake now.

Hey Ugly, if you post a link without an explanation I for one will not click on it. These days there is so much spam around that unexplained links are dangerous.

Finally a game where one can have the utmost confidence in J P Howell to close things out.

it was Thin Lizzy, Gerry.

That's the way I like to start series.

The pen needed a one sided win.

The last time two Jays had four hits in the same game was back in September 2013. That time it was Josh Thole and Munenori Kawasaki. Naturally.

I'm with Gerry, Ugly - no blind links, please.  I trust you and generally check out your links (the Rangers wikipedia page was great), but that's a really big ask on a public forum. 

Sometimes, a pitcher never develops his secondary pitches.  A good 4-seamer isn't worth much by itself in today's game.

Justin Smoak's $/WAR, two months into his 2+1 extension, is currently $8.5M. His entire contract, counting the buyout, is for $8.4M.

Even if he levels off, he should be able to meet/exceed the worth of his deal over the first two years, if nothing else. He's being paid like a 0.5 WAR player, so the bar isn't particularly high. On the other hand, if this performance is actually a breakout (and nothing in his numbers suggest a huge amount of luck involved so far), then wow. He always had an intriguing skill set (I actually thought he was a breakout candidate in 2015), and has the former top prospect cachet, but wasn't expecting this type of performance at age 30. He's hitting for power, making very hard contact, drawing walks, not striking out, and not looking helpless against off speed stuff.

I don't know when I can be excited about Smoak because I'd hate to get my hopes up and then watch him crash again, but he's been excellent so far. Even if his true talent level has bumped up into the 110-115 wRC+ range, it would be well worth the extension.

I wonder if Coghlan is headed to the DL to make room for Happ.  Barney or Goins can back up a corner OF slot.  I suppose it could also be Leone, who has thrown 3 innings over the last 2 days.  Leone looks like a perfectly serviceable middle reliever to me, and if he is headed to Buffalo, I hope that he returns soon.

As for Smoak, he is doing a bunch of things differently this year.  It looks to me like he's cut down on his swing, making it more compact.  It allows him to make more contact, take the ball up the middle and to left field more comfortably. This is an excellent response to the shift.    What he is doing looks fairly sustainable to me- he has been somewhat lucky with his home runs with quite a  couple of fly balls just falling over the fence or line and a couple of line drives just clearing the fence , and so his IsoP is a litlle stretched. But he's full value for the batting average and OBP.  

Smoak's K rate is down significantly, and from the eye-test it looks as if he's much less hopeless against breaking pitches. At this point I'd be surprised if he turned totally back to his old self, as he's never looked anywhere close to this good. Also, this team has a history of older hitters finding their swing.

If Smoak legitimately has improved them it shows I still know little about baseball. I didn't think there was much chance that a 30 year old could be taught to hit a curveball, but here we are. Bautista's emergence always made more sense to me, as even in the pre-"Bats" days he had a great batting eye.

I'd be curious to hear about what has changed. Maybe the veteran presence on the team helped him learn a few new tricks.

Kudos to the FO for giving him the contract I complained about so much in the off-season. Also kudos are owed to Anthopolous, who picked him up for free I'm sure with this in mind.

yeah i'd love to hear some scouting based feedback on his changes (more than just my "he looks better" take) because statistically everything looks the same in approach and results aside from a huge spike in contact in the zone. He's swinging at the same amount of pitches both in and outside the zone, with a similar batted ball distribution (though with more hits up the middle) and contact quality,but now he's just stopped missing the center cut pitches - and the improvement is on both fastballs and breakingnballs Needless to say that's weird at his age and i'm not sure whether statistically that is likelier to be fluky or sustainable.

I'm still betting against him but sure am pulling for him.

And i'll say it - at this point Smoak is our leading all-star candidate. (Martin 2nd).

It looks strange to see Smoak and all star in the same sentence, but you might be right Ugly - although I'd put Pillar ahead of Martin.

I have never been as wrong on a player as I was on Smoak. Did anyone here actually LIKE the extension at the time? If so, kudos.

The team leader in fWAR is Estrada with 1.6, which surprised me. Let's get that extension signed! Although we may not be able to get the big value deal - I assume the industry is well aware of how good he is right now.

Stroman is a good all-star candidate as well.

I agree that Smoak has looked good and is full value for his current line. However, I followed his entire Mariners career. At least twice a year, Rick Rizz (longtime M's broadcaster/cheerleader) used to pronounce that a Smoak hot streak resulted from x or y mechanical adjustment and that Smoak had finally "turned the corner". It happened so often it was a running joke among M's fans. It happened last year here. Remember the stories about his adjustments to stop pulling the ball as a LH batter? I think I'm on about my 6th or 7th iteration of this story. Anyway, I really do hope that he's found something because the team could really use a legitimate LH hitting threat. I need way more data before I buy in again.

yeah i did a google search of "smoak breakout" before the season and the number of results - from each of the last 5-6yrs - was pretty funny.

Smoak's line against RHP is a little better than his career line, but not really that much better once you adjust for the park difference.  It's really the 33 PAs against LHP that have been completely different.  He's been a terror from the right side this year (including 5 walks and only 1 K) after spending his career with the right side being the weak one.  Waiting for more reps is definitely a reasonable view. 

Stroman and Estrada are your All-Stars so far.  The offence and defence have been so-so, and three starters have been injured.  If Stroman and Estrada hadn't pitched so well, the club would be in dire shape.  As it stands, I cannot imagine being more optimistic about a team in last place at the end of May in a tough division. Fangraphs has their chances of making the playoffs at 31%, and that seems about right. 

Agreed with Mike Green that the HR rate is probably the least sustainable of Smoak's numbers to this point. It's similar to his HR rate in 2015, but I'd be shocked if he could keep that up with everyday AB's. Outside of that, his numbers don't look all that flukey to me. With Saunders in the first half of 2016, his BABIP was around .380. There was no way he was going to keep that up. Smoak's numbers across the board don't seem to be all that out of line with his actual production, even if the numbers drop a bit to a more reasonable level over time. The K% is the biggest difference to me. What sort of adjustment he made would be interesting to know about. I would be more concerned if he starts striking out at near 30% again.

Tough call. I'm more inclined to think that he's improved over pre-2016 Smoak, but is not *this* good. Like I said, if he's a true talent 115-ish wRC+ player now, then that's fine with me. Better than I expected. I'd be thrilled if he becomes another late bloomer, though.

For getting excited about Smoak lets remember ...
2016: Michael Saunders Opening Day-July 8th 300/375/557, after July 8th 179/280/353 and 226/270/402 so far this year for Philly.
2015: Chris Colabello 321/367/520 followed by a 225 OPS in 2016 and 661 in AAA this year.
2014: Juan Francisco 276/361/595 through June 3rd then 181/241/363 after than and only 18 PA in Japan after plus 103 PA in a winter league (OPS below 600 in both).

The key part for Smoak is that his performance so far is already "banked". If he needed to produce 1-2 WAR to be worth his extension, then he's already there. Returning to career norms from here would still result in his best year. If he does go back to his standard "almost exactly average, if frustrating, hitter", hopefully the returning players at 3B and SS can outhit Barney, Goins, and Coghlan and offset that a bit :) The Jays lineup suddenly looks kinda' fierce again if everyone is healthy.

I dunno Mike. Smoak is legitimately the top hitting 1B in the AL right now, while stro/estrada have been great but aren't even top-15 in era at this point, which would make them borderline calls at best.

of course, that could all change quickly.

good point about the R/L splits for Smoak, mike. it really is the vRHP hitting which has caused the change. probably not sustainable, unfortuntely.

AWeb - it's kinda banked but imo not really. Smoak has had plenty of good streaks in the past, and unfortunately has shown that he's equally capable of putting up long stretches of negative war.

Updated Past Calendar Year wRC+:

2B Travis 108
RF Bautista 115
3B Donaldson 160
DH Morales 128
C Martin 121
SS Tulowitzki 111
1B Smoak 105
LF Pearce 101
CF Pillar 96

UT Coghlan 81
OF Carrera 82
IF Goins 72
IF Barney 68
C Maile 29


Past 2 Calendar Years

2B Travis 111
RF Bautista 134
3B Donaldson 152
DH Morales 116
LF Pearce 114
1B Smoak 108
C Martin 104
SS Tulowitzki 103
CF Pillar 97

UT Coghlan 95
OF Carrera 90
IF Barney 82
IF Goins 69
C Maile 26

I didn't even look at his splits vs RHP/LHP. His wRC+ against RHP is 122, which is well above his norm against them, so I'd say that's a good sign. No way he keeps hitting LHP the way he has, though the sample size is really small (39 PA) so it's hard to take those numbers seriously either way.

It will be interesting to see how he finishes the season. I am always fascinated by players who make adjustments and turn into much better players (Bautista and Edwin being the ones that hit close to home). Remains to be seen if Smoak falls under that category.

I don't really buy the "get X amount of WAR to be worth the contract" argument. There are other variables at play, like positional versatility, lineup flexibility, and overall roster makeup that could make a player not "worth" a contract despite producing the amount of WAR necessary, especially when that amount is only 1 WAR.

Ie: for Smoak, getting 1 WAR over two years for a slow 1B only guy who clogs up a position that could be used to rest players (ie: Bautista) would be a disappointing outcome and, in my opinion a waste of a roster spot.

Of course, if he's actually worth 3+ WAR now that's a different story.

Good examples John, but I feel that those players are different. Saunders always had a high K-rate (26.7% even in the first half last year) which indicated that at least some of his production was luck. Even after his hot start I wasn't really buying Saunders as a great player, or even a good one considering his poor defense. Cola also had a very high K rate, and not nearly enough speed to make his .411 BABIP at all sustainable. Francisco always had a outrageous K-rate and was probably lucky to finish with a batting average over .200.

Smoak's production thus far comes with a reasonable K-rate (18% at the moment) and BABIP (same as last year). At 180 PA it's still a small sample size, but it's not tiny either. Jose Bautista's September of 2009 was also a small sample, smaller in fact but it was a harbinger of things to come.

Of course it's too early to anoint him as a perennial all-star just yet, but the early signs are good IMO. Sometimes weird things happen in baseball.

On the topic of sustainable adjustments, Kevin Pillar is hitting .241/.303/.380 over his last 120 PA since April 29th.

Devon Travis has hit .259/.291/.395 in 325 PA out of the leadoff spot over his career, but his numbers leading off the game (.250/.292/.515) in 72 PA or an inning (.270/.314/.474 in 245 PA) are strong.

We know batting orders don't really matter much in the grand scheme, and I feel with the Jays assortment of hitters it matters even less (as long as JD and JB are in the top 3), but it'll still be interesting to see how Gibby decides to manage the order. You don't want to be too reactionary to recent play, but you also don't want to leave the league's hottest hitter batting 8th for too long.

If I was making the lineup tonight, I'd roll with Martin leading off and Travis batting 4th or 5th.

Travis does have a history of being the 3rd best offensive player on the club (once you account for baserunning) and he is 26.  He seems ideally suited for the 1, 2 or 3 slots in the lineup, but I don't know how I would roll with the talent currently on hand. I'd probably have Morales hitting 6th because of the double plays and the baserunning.  It isn't much of a deal though- the key thing is to have Donaldson hitting 1, 2 or 4 once he's healthy for the simple reason that he is far and away the best hitter on the club. 

My point with those guys is that every year lately it seems we have someone 'break out' who in the 2nd half turns back into a pumpkin, or in the case of Colabello the following year. So before getting too high on Smoak remember Colabello, Francisco, and Saunders. Heck, if some other team knocks on the door asking for Smoak see what you can get and dump him I'd say as history says he is more or less a 0 WAR player and odds are this is a small sample size freak show thing right now. Doesn't stop us from enjoying it.

Leone optioned to Buffalo to make room for Happ, which was the obvious move. Leone has options, and a) they weren't not going to give up on Howell this quickly; b) Grilli appears to be regaining his form; c) he's Dominic Leone.

The Jays are now opting for a 7-man bullpen, at a time when only two of their starters are regularly capable of going 6 or 7 innings per game.  (I'm referring to Estrada and Stroman.  I don't think Biagini has reached that point reliably yet, and of course Happ and Liriano will still be building up their strength after their rehabs.)  It's a little risky.  But luckily the Jays were able to rest their high-leverage relievers over the past two games, so they should be okay for a little while anyway. 

The bullpen has racked up a huge number of innings this year already.  If the rotation doesn't quickly return to full strength, the Jays might have to revert to the 8-man bullpen, perhaps by putting Coghlan on the DL (or cutting him) to make room for Leone again.

"....they weren't not going to give up on Howell...."

Unless they don't decide not to....

Breathe easy, after the game tomorrow Bolsinger will be DFAd and they can add an 8th RP until Liriano is activated. I'm sure you'll be able to live through the sheer horror of the Jays having only 7 RP for a couple of games. Leone wasn't going to pitch the next 2 days anyway.

"....they weren't not going to give up on Howell...."

The lesson, as always: never change your planned phrasing while in mid-type.

Hey, did I just invent a new word?

The lesson, as always: never change your planned phrasing while in mid-type.

I'm guilty as charged.  I like the juxtaposition of "always" and "never" in your rule...

Hey, did I just invent a new word?

Pretty sure The Donald invented that the same day he invented priming the pump.

"...Bolsinger will be DFAd and they can add an 8th RP until Liriano is activated...."

Bolsinger pitches tomorrow and Liriano will be activated on Friday, so I'm pretty sure the Jays aren't going to add a reliever for just one game (Thursday). 

But I agree with you that Bolsinger might be DFA'd after tomorrow's game.

Schoenfield on last nights game:

The Cincinnati Reds might have pitched the worst game of the year, as the Toronto Blue Jays pounded out 23 hits, including 20 off the bullpen. The Reds also issued seven walks and recorded just one strikeout.

Maybe Happ should have had another rehab start or two?

Looking at the Toronto lineup and thinking - gosh, it seems like only yesterday they were trotting out six guys below the Mendoza Line. Now the lowest BAVG is Martin's .238 - and Russell actually leads the team in OBPct. Martin's never walked this frequently in his career (though he has come close a couple of times.)

I hope Bolsinger can go reasonably deep into the game tomorrow (at least 6 IP). I'm not holding my breath, but four innings out of Happ probably means we will see Barnes/Tepera/Loup and (if the Jays are still leading) Smith/Osuna. There's no long man to eat up innings if Bolsinger gets crushed tomorrow unless they make a roster move after tonight.

Tepera is the long man I think.

FWIW, the Buffalo starter Valdez lasted 4.1 IP, 4 runs, 1HR vs a Toledo lineup featuring 5 hitters below the Mendoza line.

I'd think Barnes may be burned for two days now. In addition to his two innings of work tonight he threw a lot of warm up pitches. He got up with one out in the 3rd.

Smith's awesomeness assisted by some great D. we gotta win this one now.

(and man old man tulo is so damn good defensively still. much better than goins imo.)

we gotta win this one now.

Kendrys agrees with you

I've never been so happy to be so wrong about Smoak, Bautista and Morales

I like our team, Barry.

Kendrys has hit some big HR's this season. Three off the top of my head that have decided games.

I think I saw this on Twitter but apparently Morales leads the league with 6 homeruns off 95+ mph pitches.

Im starting to think that the new front office puts a lot of stock into the new statcast avg exit velocity stats. Smoak, Morales and Batista all ranked very highly there last year.

If Im looking at other candidates who the front office might go after, I would guess Randall Grichuk.

I heard a discussion about Smoak on the radio today, and it was said that Atkins stated that at the time of the extension, the team had confidence in Smoak due to their advanced statistics on him, thought he was on the verge of a breakout, and that they thought the contract extension was a bargain. Looks, amazingly enough, like they might have been right. I imagine exit velocity was one of the stats they relied upon.

That was an exciting game. Morales seems to like those high fastball the Jays use for 3rd strikes.

Morales seems to be struggling with the breaking balls and hitting the fastballs well.
He's not a rookie, He's hit breaking balls before. If he can figure it out, he could have a hot month down the year.

morales and Bautista are doing exactly what they were projected to do.

Barnes could be burned, but they used Lorenzen for 3 innings and he's their setup guy.
Wood got hammered. Will they use Drew Storen?

Adleman was drafted by the Orioles in 2010 and released in 2012 after posting mediocre numbers in A/A- ball.
He spent 2 years in the independent circuits before signing with the Reds in 2014.
He made his MLB debut last year going 4-4 in 13 starts.
He's their 6th or 7th starter. He's exactly the type of guys the front office was trying to acquire during the winter. Good AAA depth. 

I think the front office definitely looks at batted ball profile. Smoak's profile always looked a lot better than the quality of hitter he actually was. The Morales deal looks like they value exit velocity, launch angle, etc. Bautista is Bautista, the only wart with him is/was age (and defense), but they ended up getting him at a very reasonable contract.

Was looking at the FG team stats and noticed the Reds are #1 in batting ( though defence and baserunning play a part in that), amd #30 in pitching.

Can't recall any other team with that combo.

with Lawrence & Latos gone, I would be hesitant to DFA Bolsinger as he is likely to be claimed with so many teams looking for rotation help - I would prefer to option Loup or even lose Grilli and keep Bolsinger as the long man and emergency starting option.

Should be interesting to see who gets rested today - Martin certainly, maybe Tulo & Donaldson.

Why not just DFA Howell?

was going to wait until after today's start to look at it but hey you guys piqued my interest - here's how our extra SP (Biagini, Bolsinger, Latos, Lawrence) have done so far:

14gs, 5.0ip/gs, 134era-, 126fip-, 119xfip-, 0.0fwar, -0.3ra9war

So basically perfectly replacement level stuff overall. (We've gone 5-9 as a team in those starts fwiw).

Of course it's Biagini who has been the only one that is actually good, with Bolsinger being replacement level and the other two being useless.

I'd rather not lose Bolsinger but at the same time imo we've got enough arms in buffalo with a chance to give a similar replacement level performance as he has.

It's a day game after a night game, so the lineup is different with Maile catching and Martin at third, Goins in for Tulo and Zeke in for Pillar with Coghlan in left.  If Bolsinger can go 6 innings allowing 3 runs or less with this defense behind him and facing a regular Reds' lineup, he deserves some plaudits. 

Travis leading off with pillar out. might be a chance to earn it back here.

Why not just DFA Howell?

It seems a little rash to dump a guy who's been an effective pitcher for the last five years after 6.2 bad innings. Especially when there's a specific job you need Howell for that Bolsinger certainly can't do. I expect they'll continue doing with Howell what they did with Grilli earlier this year and Cecil last year - send him to the back of the bullpen line, let him work out his problems.

"...If Bolsinger can go 6 innings allowing 3 runs or less..."

I'd be very happy with that, but I'm not expecting it.  The Reds have a strong hitting lineup.

The Jays say their entire bullpen (except Barnes) will be available today.  If Estrada is able to throw 6 or 7 innings tomorrow, and if Bolsinger goes 5 or 6 innings today, the bullpen won't be over-taxed by Friday when they could be needed for Liriano's start.  But Gibbons had a good line today when he was asked what would happen if Bolsinger has a short outing.  He said:  "Ooh... that wouldn't be good."

"....Bolsinger being replacement level...."

Perhaps the numbers can be interpreted this way, if you squint at them long enough, but surely he is not replacement level in reality.  I won't be too upset if he gets lost on waivers.

The scary thing is, Bolsinger is better than any other depth starter the Jays could have used with the possible exception of TJ House. Thankfully, Biagini has turned into a decent SP so far. The depth behind him is not good.

This seems like one of those games where they should let Bolsinger eat up as many innings as possible, regardless of the score, and live to fight another day. That 17 run game came about 2 days early.

surely [Bolsinger] is not replacement level in reality.

First - I don't know that I understand what "replacement level" means anymore. But I always assumed it meant the type of guy you could pick up for a bag of used baseballs. Cheap, widely available, marginal talent. A starting pitcher with a career ERA+ of 80 would seem to fit the bill.

Gerry pointed out in the other thread Lucas Harrell is starting rehab in Dunedin. He's depth, assuming health.

Mike Green's prediction might yet come true.  Bolsinger has been much better in the last three innings.  When his stuff is working, he seems to induce a lot of weak contact.  When it doesn't work, he gets hammered.  And he still gives up too many walks (he had a BB/9 of 6.6 even before today's three walks).

That was the best Bolsinger has looked all season.

Cliche alert: "He's not just pitching for the Jays, he is pitching for 29 other teams."

So, for the Bolsinger fans:  who do you DFA to make room for Liriano, if not him?  Coghlan, perhaps?  They're not going to demote Loup or Tepera, and they're unlikely to DFA someone like Grilli or Howell just to make room for Bolsinger.

who do you DFA to make room for Liriano, if not him? Coghlan, perhaps?

Well, Dalton Pompey did go 3 for 4 in his first game of the season yesterday. But I dunno... I think you'd want him to have more than a couple of games at A ball before adding him to the major league roster.

And what am I thinking, anyway? Replacing Coghlan with Pompey still leaves you with one too many pitchers on the team. See ya, Mike.

If the Jays decide to DFA Coghlan, they'll be even more heavily dependent on Carrera in LF, which is probably not good.  Even Gibbons has been acknowledging that Carrera is better in a part-time role.  So the question of who to remove for Liriano is a bit of a dilemma, but I think Bolsinger is still the most likely.

Had 'em all the way. 

It would have sucked if the Jays lost the lead due to the Goins error. Thankfully, Osuna was able to work out of it.

Bolsinger on the mound, another rest day for Donaldson/Tulo, and the Jays still win. Can't complain.

Bolsinger gets plaudits even if he doesn't make it through the sixth.  Obviously the club would have preferred to avoid using Smith and Osuna, but a win is a win.  It is possible for the Jays to reach .500 on June 1 at the 1/3 mark of the season.  That seemed like a real longshot a month ago. 

I always enjoy a fighting Travis at-bat.  Even more when they end well. 

Jays are now 9-7 in one-run games this year.

"Jays are now 9-7 in one-run games this year."

Good thing Osuna let that final run!

Osuna seems to have a habit of giving up runs when he has a multiple-run lead.   The tighter the margin, the better he pitches.

Not as bad as Bolsinger's bad habit of allowing so many baserunners!

why would you not DFA Howell China? I am not a Coghlan fan but feel another OF is needed until Pearce returns. Bolsinger can be useful in the pen imo. I think any decision other than designating Howell is the wrong one but apparently not all agree.

The Jays have been done better in the "comeback falling short" version of the one-run game this year than in several years prior. 

PeterG, you make a good point, but I think we're still in the dark as to exactly why Howell has been getting so few innings this year.  If there is a health-related or mechanics-related reason, maybe we need to be a little more patient with him.  There's no point in giving up an asset for nothing.  But on the other hand, if the coaches think he is unfixable, they should dump him.  I can only guess about it, because I don't think we have enough information.

Gibbons is definitely improving in his management of 1 run games.

However, he still has some smartening up to do. Winning by so many runs in game 1 of the series has pushed to Jays to over 0 in runs difference, but their record is below .500.

Having a record consistently below expected record has been a theme during Gibbons' tenure (I think).

If Howell has an issue, then DL him. We are probably giving up an asset if we DFA Bolsinger and I think that a fill in starter or long reliever who can eat some innings is more useful than a loogy who has been ineffective.

You can probably get any of the pitchers to throw with their left hand and you got Howell.

Come get yer whuppin, Yanks.

"Perhaps the numbers can be interpreted this way, if you squint at them long enough, but surely he is not replacement level in reality."

replacement level might not mean what you think it means.

"First - I don't know that I understand what "replacement level" means anymore."

what it's always meaned - what your average AAA fill in replacement callup would do.

final line:

Bolsinger: 5gs, 5.1ip/gs, 133era-, 130fip-, 135xfip-, 0.0fwar, -0.1ra9war

yeah, that's replacement level. can't worry too much about losing that.

Uglyone, you should enlighten us on your definition of "replacement level", since it's obvious that there is disagreement on what it means, even within this thread.  You yourself defined it as meaning "better than useless" -- you made a distinction between Bolsinger (whom you called "replacement level") and two other pitchers, Latos and Lawrence, whom you called "useless" and not replacement level.  But Magpie had a somewhat different interpretation -- he said:  "I don't know that I understand what "replacement level" means anymore. But I always assumed it meant the type of guy you could pick up for a bag of used baseballs. Cheap, widely available, marginal talent."  By Magpie's definition, it would include pitchers like Lawrence and Latos.

Fangraphs has this definition for replacement level:  "the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire."   Again, this would appear to include pitchers like Latos and Lawrence.  By this definition, there's really no difference between Lawrence, Latos and Bolsinger -- they're all DFA candidates.  And indeed Bolsinger and Lawrence and Latos have all been DFA'd this year, so they were all deemed very expendable.   So why are you attempting to make a distinction between Bolsinger and the other two?  Please share your criteria.

what your average AAA fill in replacement callup would do.

That's what I always thought. An ERA+ of about 80 and an ERA around 5.50.... Mike Bolsinger, everybody!

As for Howell, he probably lost some points with his manager by trying to pitch when he wasn't healthy - you all remember his disastrous outing in early April, followed by his hitting the DL the very next day. Howell actually hasn't been bad since returning to action, but while he was away Aaron Loup somewhat unexpectedly turned back the clock and staked a claim as first LH out of the pen. Still, I would doubt Gibbons has unlimited faith and trust in Loup, either. Why would he? Gibbons was here to see Loup pitch for the last two years, and what he saw wasn't pretty.

Howell is on a guaranteed 3M contract. If the Jays release him, someone else will pick him and the Jays will have to pay 2.5M of that. Bolsinger just makes the minimum.

That doesn't seem like much, but a lot of people where upset when the Jays signed Smoak for 4M a year.

As far as I know, Bolsinger can be designated for assignment and then the Jays would have 7 days to put him on waivers, trade him or bring him back. The DFA is down from 10 days to 7 days this year, so they might have less than 7 days to put him on waivers now.

Replacement Level is 0 WAR - basically what is considered 'freely available talent'. Anyone who does worse than that is a waste in every respect for the team.

Last year 438 players had 100+ PA. Of those 92 had a negative fWAR but the worst was Alexei Ramirez at -2.4 with just 16 others at least -1.0 WAR, no others were -2 or worse. Goins was at -1.0

There were 512 pitchers with 20+ IP, 113 were negative. None reached 2 in the negatives. Just 6 were -1 or worse. Clearly teams clear out the really bad ones quickly.

Another one run win. This month has been a refreshing change from most of the previous decade. Anyway, Tanaka goes tonight so he's the one NYY starter the Jays will miss, which is good because he's dominated them in his career. He's been having a horrible season so far but his last start was vintage Tanaka so it's a good thing we're missing him this time around. Cheering for Baltimore tonight though to decrease the division deficit.

With Minnesota's loss this afternoon the Jays sit 2 games out of WC2. The teams between them don't look all that threatening either (a Troutless Angels team, the reeling Orioles, and the Twins who have lost 4 in a row and are remembering they're the Twins). There is Tampa Bay, who have been sneaky-good so far this year I think. Tampa's quietly been one of the better hitting and pitching teams in the AL.

"Howell is on a guaranteed 3M contract. If the Jays release him, someone else will pick him and the Jays will have to pay 2.5M of that."

We're a third through the season so it would be more like 2M, right?

Yeah, about 1.7M in sunk cost.

wasn't smoak's money that i had issue with, but the commitment of roster spot to him for multiple years. minor quibble but important difference for me.

Commitment, like trade value, is highly dependent on salary.

Meanwhile, Edwin has 10 homeruns, but only 2 doubles.

Smoak's contract is pretty team-friendly. Two years (2017 and 2018) at $4.1m per plus a club option at $6-8m depending on total PA this year and next. The buyout is $0.2m. There really isn't much risk there.

Mentioned earlier the Reds have the best position player WAR and the worst pitcher WAR and couldn't recall that ever happening. Was expecting Magpie to come up with the last time that occurred but it was Jeff Sullivan today with the answer.

1959 Senators had the best pitching and the worst position players, but in a 16 team league.

2000 Angels came closest - players #2, pitching #30.

And the 1997 Jays - #3 pitching, #28 (dead last) position players.

Two interesting observations.

1) Forty years young Jason Grilli is taking a bullpen spot. Thirty-four years young John Axford is also taking a bullpen spot with the Athletics and was recently activated from the DL. If the A's decided later to send him to Triple-A, does trading Grilli for Axford make sense? Both are not young but Grilli proved his closer value at age 36 with 33 saves.

2) Colabello rose from an independent league with .847 OPS at age 26 and 1.010 at age 27 to Minnesota's Triple-A. For this 2017 independent leagues season, shall the fans also look out for interesting hitters? As the website features a lot of information about the Jays and baseball in Canada, let me post two hitters. Canadian first baseman age 31 Jordan Lennerton is hitting well. However in contrast to Colabello's experience, Lennerton played for eight seasons of affiliated baseball and holds career .756 Triple-A OPS before career .842 OPS in two seasons independent league since last season. Raffy Lopez is hitting .954 OPS but almost 20% K% and 8.2% BB%. Aged 32 catcher Max Ramirez also played eight seasons of affiliated baseball and holds a similar career .754 Triple-A OPS, and all over .900 OPS in lower minors. As the Mexican League where hitting performance is often inflated, he holds career .894 OPS over three seasons. In this Mexican League season, his 1.079 OPS over 141 PA looks abnormal. He now plays in the independent Atlantic League where numerous former affiliated baseball players hits pretty well. Former FisherCats K. C. Hobson holds a career Double-A .625 OPS and has already hit over .960 OPS in two consecutive Atlantic league seasons. So Ramirez is possibly going to hit at an even ridiculously high OPS. Therefore, he playing in that league is wasting his talents. I did not mean signing Ramirez to the Bisons but a team would probably capitalize on this strange performance, or not...

That's fWAR that attributes all out made on balls in play to the position players.
That 15-2 game must have moved the needle quite a bit there.
The Jays don't fare well in these charts mostly due to all the negative WAR guys on the roster.
Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have scored the most run, 292 and allowed the second least, 202.
The Dodgers have scored 172 and allowed only 185.
Now, that's impressive.

Actually the Jays' pitchers this year look very similar whether you use fwar (i.e. ignore all balls in play) or ra9war (i.e. ignore defense).

They rank 5th AL / 9th MLB in fwar 5.9, and 4th AL / 8th MLB in ra9war at 6.6.

Which is pretty amazing considering they've been missing 3/5th of the rotation most of the year.

also looking at fangraphs' numbers the jays defense is an issue this year. it's been one of the worst in baseball.

the main culprits:

1.Morales -5.0 (-15.3/150)
2.Smoak -4.5 (-13.0/150)
3.Pearce -3.9 (-21.7/150)
4.Carrera -3.0 (-10.0/150)
5.Coghlan -2.6 (-12.2/150)
6.Bautista -2.2 (-6.2/150)
7.Goins -1.8 (-6.1/150)

The AL leads the NL 60-39 in interleague play with a 500-422 RS/RA margin.  Dominance.

I suspect that the 9 best teams in baseball are the Astros, Indians, Dodgers, Nationals and the five AL East teams.  So far, the AL East is 20 games over .500 and I wouldn't be surprised if it is 75 by season-end.  That is hard to do when almost half of the games are intra-divisional. 

Injuries have contributed to the defensive issues but the roster was constructed with at least one too many players whose best position is 1B/DH. Defence is going to be an issue all year. Good health, Maile as the backup C and Pearce out of LF will fix a decent amount of the problem.

I anticipate that Dalton Pompey will be in Buffalo in a week or so, and might be ready to contribute to the big-league club a week or two after that.  The outfield defence has been a sore point and Pompey would help that. 

Agreed on the OF defence. Although Bautista has certainly been better this year his range is really starting to fall off and Carrera has been a hot mess in LF, notwithstanding that he has some decent defensive tools to work with.

Those strong teams .... are they doing it with pitching, offense or defense. It is hard to have it all.

It's interesting because adding Pompey and Alford to the OF would make it maybe the best defensive OF in baseball.....and adding them to the starting OF - even this year - isn't that ludicrous.

This would be one of the best defensive teams in baseball overall, really:

CF Pillar
RF Alford
LF Pompey
3B Donaldson
SS Tulowitzki
2B Travis
1B Bautista
C Martin

That lineup is quite good uglyone. We could shill try to compete next year. Only Bautista may leave.

Pitching may or may not be a problem.

It has long bugged me that little effort is made to aggregate individual defensive ratings into team defence and then compare with ball in play data for the team. Team UZR and team DRS should be close if both did this, even if individual numbers differed.  Unfortunately, the differences are often large.  Team UZR at this point ranges from -24 to +19.  I would consider a difference of 15 runs between team DRS and team UZR a gross miss.  Ten teams have a gross miss- that number is  very high.

I would be very reluctant to attach any weight to year-to-date individual numbers in these circumstances.

So Morales has been the prime defensive "culprit"?

He's only played 71 innings and has a +1 DRS. When talking about how good or bad individual defenders are, why include positional adjustment?

Thanks for the info hypobole.......re 71 Innings of defense for Morales. 1B.

He is probably rusty. Needs more playing time there to be fair. IMO.

The DH gets the defensive penalty precisely because it forces other guys to take the field even when they're not very good defensively.

But that in and of itself doesn't make a player a defensive culprit. It's AL rules that cause players to be DH'es.

Thole was a "plus" defender last year even though he's a poor defensive catcher. When talking about defensive "culprits", it would seem to me to consider who's worse than average and by how much at their position.

The positional adjustment added then determines overall defensive value.

well I find it hard to blame the guys forced into the field while not blaming the guy taking up the DH spot.

So by posting the list, you've informed us that Morales is a DH, Smoak a 1B, etc.

I feel more enlightened already.:)

Remember when EE played 3B. His defense was bad I believe. The errors had a negative effect on his hitting too I believe.

The manager eventually decided to move him off 3B and his value to his team soared.

I know that it was all offensive value. And we are trying to analyse defensive value.

IMO for example .... putting Barney or Goins at 3B and EE on the bench would only make sense as a substitute during a game. And during selected instances.

I have got off the topic I know. Sorry!!. But I remember Molitor playing in the field in 1993 because it was a NL park during the playoffs. I cannot remember if this hurt or helped the team.

Well I guess we could have played Morales in RF, and let Bautista DH, and then we could blame MOrales and not Bautista.

Fair or not - I don't see Pompey coming up soon - unless injuries maybe not until September - Smith may be recalled before Pompey - Gibbons likes to roll with vets. such as Carrera & Coghlan - Pearce may come back in a month.

I dunno. Gibby handed Pompey starting CF at age 22. He let Travis win the 2B job without any time at AAA. I'm pretty sure he had a big part in calling up Alford, given his raves about him in the preseason.

Off-topic but the four-fingered Mr. Met gave someone the middle digit. Imagine Ace flipping someone the bird.

And Mr. Met was DFA'd

Wonder if he'll end up in Binghamton?

So far there's no DFA announcement on Bolsinger.   Maybe they're going to dump Coghlan instead?  If so, they'll wait until tomorrow, when they need to clear room for Liriano.

Going back to defence DRS has Carrera at -6, split evenly between left and right, 0 in CF.

Goins is -5 at SS, 0 at 2nd and 3rd.

Jose is -4 in RF, but +2 in his 11 innings at 3rd.

Our pitchers are a combined -6 despite Stroman being a +3. Biagini -3, Happ and Osuna -2.

Pillar with +4 has the best DRS.

Whoops, there it is:  Jays announce that Bolsinger has been DFA'd and replaced by Campos. 

Will Campos be on the roster for just one game?  Or does Coghlan get DFA'd tomorrow?

I imagine it is just one game. I doubt that Coghlan is DFA until Pearce returns though I would not mind seeing him replaced within a short time by any one of Smith, Fields or Pompey.

I don't buy that Blue Jay pitchers have been as bad as DRS suggest.  Both Stroman and Biagini have been very good according to the eye test.  The corner outfield is -10 according to DRS and -3 according to UZR.  I'd pick the mid-point on that one, actually closer to the DRS figure.  The shortstops are -4 according to DRS and -2 according to UZR.  I'd pick the mid-point on that one too.  Those are the big ones. 

If Tulo and Donaldson are healthy and Pompey is in LF, I think you have a modestly above-average team defence, both in the OF and in the IF. 

The one thing that really stands out for Goins' UZR is his range. Of 158 listed players, only Erick Aybar's -6.1 is a worse RngR that Goins -5.3. Melky Cabrera is the only other -5.

One thing to remember with defensive stats is they normally need a couple of years to mean anything. Single season, especially partial season data means very, very little. No way I buy that Goins is below average defensively.

No way I buy that Goins is below average defensively

Heh, obviously you weren't at the Dome yesterday in the 9th inning :)

I think that we need some common sense and reversion to the more reliable eye test. That too only works for one who sees every game. Goins is quite possibly the best defensive infielder in the game and I believe many managers and execs would agree on that.

Defensive metrics are losing credibility. I know this is a forum where analytics are very much appreciated but in truth many of them, even WAR, are losing their followings and are not watched as closely by team decision makers. Some of the newer ones such as exit velo and spin rate have better followings within the real baseball community.

Your lineup for today: Pillar 8, Donaldson 5, Bautista 9, Morales 0, Smoak 3, Tulo 3, Barney 4, Carrera 7, Maile 2.  It's nice to give Maile a 2nd start in a row after yesterday's homer and his positive experience with Estrada last time- Martin can catch two of the remaining games and (probably) play third for Donaldson in one of them.  I'm a bit surprised to see Travis get the day off as well with the Yankees in town.  He's started in only 43 of the club's 54 games so far this season despite being healthy.  Maybe he is not entirely 100% and needs more rest than your typical 26 year old. 

unfortunately goins' sample size doesn't save him.

His career numbers - by both DRS and UZR - say pretty clearly that he's a good (but not great) defensive 2B, and a mediocre SS.

But at age 29 he's reached the age where defense sometimes starts to decline (especially range), and the numbers over the past few years show a pretty clear decline from even that level, and both systems are really down on him so fae this year.

and to be honest that matches my eye test - all sorts of balls have gotten past him this year that wouldn't have even been special plays imo.

"....I'm a bit surprised to see Travis get the day off..."

Travis and Martin are both nursing minor injuries, according to Gibbons.  Nothing too significant, but he decided to give them the day off.

From a Wilner pre-game tweet:

Gibby: Travis' knee has been bothering him, has a tight hammy. Martin tweaked his leg on a couple of swings last night.

I'm with uglyone re: Goins.

Goins doesn't boot many balls, but he doesn't get to a lot either. I don't know if his range is as poor as UZR says, but I also don't know how anyone can say it's good, unless they're a huge Ryan Goins fan.

One more thought on the earlier "replacement level" discussion. In the off-season, replacement level pitchers can easily be acquired for league minimum. Trying to do so at the end of May with 50 to 100 pitchers league-wide on the DL is a totally different ball of wax.

Our pitchers are a combined -6 despite Stroman being a +3. Biagini -3, Happ and Osuna -2.

I'm not sure what mean. Stroman is good defensively. Estrada doesn't have to be because the balls are all in the air.
Biagini had one bad outing where he threw  a double play ball away. I don't remember enough of Happ or Osuna making plays this year. Bunt defense? Comebackers?

Trying to do so at the end of May with 50 to 100 pitchers league-wide on the DL is a totally different ball of wax.

Not sure I agree with this Hypobole.  We just gave the Mariners a replacement level starter in Lawrence and Latos will find a new home.  We traded Wade Leblanc for a PTBNL last summer in the midst of a solid AAA season, and he's revived his career nicely in Pittsburgh.

AAAA starters are fungible like relievers - they don't have to be good for their career - just good at the right time.  Case in point, Grilli and Benoit cost us next to nothing last year. 

AAAA starters are fungible like relievers - they don't have to be good for their career - just good at the right time.  Case in point, Grilli and Benoit cost us next to nothing last year.

Bolsinger is DFAed, How about sending Bolsinger to the Reds or teams that need starting pitching for a prospect. Then Grilli and this prospects are traded for a better asset. Or send Grilli and Bolsinger as a package for a backup closer. Grilli proved he had 30s saves at age 36. So, the pitcher in return is fine as long as he is not too old.

If the timing is not right, is clearing aged wood and log essential to team transactions.

There's replacement level and sub-replacement level. The subs are always available. Indy league etc. Let's agree to disagree on whether Lawrence or Latos are replacement level.

Neither Grilli nor Benoit were league minimum guys.

Not talking about their salaries ... they were pitching at or below replacement level, and were essentially free to acquire - freely available talent is pretty comparable to replacement level. 

Wilmer Font is another name that comes to mind - he's been showing up on the Fangraphs 'Fringe Five' series of compelling longshot prospects.  He had a brief run with us last year, signed out of the indie league.  Currently 5th in all of the minors in K%.  Props to the Bauxite from Ottawa who called him a good acquisition at the time. 

Fair point on Latos, time will tell.  I'm optimistic Lawrence is at least replacement level - he's been solid in 9 IPs for the Mariners since we gave up on him.