Mike Ohlman cleared waivers and is headed back to Buffalo.

Tulo has a home run tonight in Dunedin. Donaldson is 2-3. Both are expected to be back on Friday.

Ack! What obvious reference am I missing? Alice Cooper fits in how?

(Will I hate myself once it's explained?)

Who's this new guy playing third base?

Believe Alice Cooper offers a succinct history lesson about Milwaukee during Wayne's World.

He's a young whipper snapper from Sector 7G.

Playing Bautista at third is the kind of defensive sacrifice you make to squeeze the extra bat of Chris Coghlan into the lineup.

Alice Cooper offers a succinct history lesson about Milwaukee during Wayne's World.

Points to all who remember the scene. I feel no shame that I don't.

I guess Coghlan became one of Gibbons' must have guys after The Leap.

Plus, he's produced an incredibly gritty .575 OPS. That doesn't grow on trees.

7-7 in one run games.

About the Brewers, is Eric Thames going to bat third because of his OPS?

Thames can bat anywhere because they have a good lineup, minus the shortstop.
Thames is in a mini-slump right now, by the way.

Interestingly, Braun is at replacement level right now because of his bad defense so far this year.
He was shopped over the winter, but there was no taker. The GMs were weary that he's juicing again as he had a bump of productivity that mirrored his "good" years.

Man, Alford is so exciting to watch. I'd like to see him start today, although Stroman is a ground ball pitcher and they'll probably go with Barney at 3rd. Garza has no real split over his career.

Mr. Biagini is a funny guy too.

Playing Bautista at third is the kind of defensive sacrifice you make to squeeze the extra bat of Chris Coghlan into the lineup.

Apparently it was more about giving Darwin Barney's hamstring a break. In which case, Bautista's certainly a better third baseman than Coghlan.

It sure is fun having a hotshot rookie hitter on the team again. Over the next few years we should see plenty of them too.

Leaderboard OPS by position for 25 years old or less...
CA: Jansen, Danny: 22 A+/AA 379/432/557
1B: McBroom, Ryan: 25 AA 250/343/462
2B: Jones, Bradley: 22 A 304/370/541
3B: Guerrero Jr., Vladimir: 18 A 346/444/534
SS: Bichette, Bo: 19 A 357/434/557
LF: Thomas, Jake: 23 A 297/472/407
CF: Alford, Anthony: 22 AA/maj 313/396/443
RF: Smith Jr., Dwight: 24 AAA/maj 309/365/446
DH: Pentecost, Max: 24 A+ 294/351/515

Note: Tellez has dropped badly to 209/314/351

Funny, DH/1B appear the weakest for hitting at the cream of the crop level. Boy did they bring the fences in down in Lansing or somwthing?

I'd expect Bichette to move to second or third, Urena to play SS and Jones having to battle for utility spot.
Same with McBroom and Guerrero moving to first. Altough, maybe he follows the Miguel Cabrera profile and stick at 3rd until 25.

It would be nice if one or two of those guys could replace Adam Lind as the best hitter from the Jays system this century. Heck, maybe Pillar will, although I don't think he'll be a long-term 125 OPS+ hitter (he is probably going to reach the top 20 position player WAR in Jay history this year - the lack of long-term high quality Jays position players always astounds me when I look it up). If the current "regime" can draft/develop hitting prospects and turn them into useful MLB hitters that's a huge step up from the last 20 years.

Mike Ohlman has cleared waivers and accepted an outright to Buffalo. I wonder if Salty could be released again as he has not hit so far as Bisons DH, a role that Ohlman will now usurp.

It's true that Bautista looked a lot better than Coghlan at third base.  I still would be happy if that was the last time we saw that- the risk of injury for Bautista playing third base as a 36 year old with his history is very high. 

No Alford on todays lineup card, Dwight Smith back up.

Alford to the DL, why not?

Hamate fracture for Alford. That's not good, lengthy time on the DL followed by a period of low power as the healing continues.

Coghlan gets the start over Carrera and Smith Jr. in left-field. 

Coghlan was pretty good in 2014-15 as a left-fielder.  Maybe they think he can get it back.

Staying healthy is a big item for prospects.  What percentage of prospects turn out to be durable (able to give you 600 PAs most years)- 20%, 30%, 40%? What are the indicators of durability for a 21 year old (aside from history)?

Anyways, enough is enough.  The 2017 Jays have had their quota of lost time due to injury. 

Alford on the DL now. Took him less than a week to earn his Blue Jay feathers.

How did Alford hurt himself? On the strikeout? Or double? Rough news for the kid. And the fans, it's fun to have a young gun to root for.

He hurt it on the first swing in his last AB. He took a wild swing and he immediately shook his hand/wrist. I was worried when I watched it.

They are saying 3 months for Alford on the NH broadcast. He may need a full year in the minors in 2018.

4-6 weeks according to the Jays. But even when he returns in July his wrist will be weak until next season. Apparently Tellez had the same issue in 2015.

I think the NH guys were considering the rehab time in their estimate. Yes Tellez had a similar issue and was not out long but many years ago, Eric Hinske had the same and it cost him several months.

Rotten news about Alford, especially with Pompey still on the comeback trail.  Health is indeed a skill and I'm starting to worry about both these guys staying on the field.  Doubly disappointing as an element of speed would be a nice addition to the current veteran big league club.

It seems someone bemoans our inability to produce hitting prospects round here every few weeks.  Not to be a broken record, but it's hard to fault the team for not developing players they haven't been drafting ...in the AA years we nabbed exactly 23 position players in the top ten over 6 drafts.  a bunch of those guys were punted picks for AA's max bonus signing game, and many picks came later in the top 10 - only 4 of 17 first rounders (including comp picks) were position players.  The only year we had a bunch of position talent in the top ten that hasn't developed (not counting injuries) would be 2012 with Nay, Tyler Gonzalez and DJ Davis all being busts.  But that's the year we got Alford in the third round. 

Even with Parker at the draft helm for the last time in 2016, it does seem like the org may be shifting to more of a focus on position players. 

Draft question- do you guys want to see the org draft more position players?  More college guys?  Do people attribute our lack of position prospects graduating to the bigs to a developmental issue?  drafting?  luck?

Eric Hinske had the same [hamate bone injury] and it cost him several months.

By some eerie coincidence, Hinske also broke his hamate bone on the 23rd of May. Spooky! Hinske missed just over a month, returning on 26 June. He scuffled for a week, but then hit quite a bit better over the rest of the season than he had before getting hurt. Which probably means squat.

And one reason it would mean squat is that apparently Hinske's hand had been bothering him since the start of the season but he didn't say anything about it until the end of May.

Do people attribute our lack of position prospects graduating to the bigs to a developmental issue? drafting? luck?

Yes? Given the automatic longshot that all but a few very top draft picks tend to be, it's hard to pick on a particular problem or player, but for whatever reason, my instinct tends towards blaming minor league development more than anything else. But the lack of top-end positional draft picks makes a long shot all the longer. Maybe there is no blame and luck is the answer, but it is frustrating.

An aside, looking up Blue Jays all-stars, Blue Jays hitters have 1 HR in AS game history in 83 ABs. (217/277/337 by my quick calc overall). I have to assume that's the worst HR/PA for any franchise, and is kind of amazing given who has represented them over the years. At least they're 9-0 stealing bases. The pitchers have done quite well, Halladay excepted (1.6 ERA without Halladay, 2.9 with his 6 runs in 6 innings)

One positive is that both Estrada and Bautista are starting to look like valuable trading chits come the trade deadline.

The 2015 and 2016 teams were considered very strong at scoring runs. So we managed to get some good position players. Donaldson and Tulo came at a high cost in players traded but were worth it. Martin just cost money and a draft pick I think as a FA signing.

We drafted enough position players between 2000-2010 to conclude that we had practically no success. Certainly nobody became significantly good.

AA's position draft picks will run out of time in a few years. We can judge Vlad in 5 years.

The only college hitters drafted in the 1st 3 rounds during AA's tenure were Pentacost and Knecht. The other 7 position players were high schoolers. 25 pitchers were taken, including the 3 that weren't signed.

Nay, Anderson and Pentacost lost a ton of development because of injuries. Alford and Smith have reached the majors. The other 4 (Knecht, Hawkins, Sweeney and Davis) never made it out of A ball.

Vlad was a FA not a draftee, but the AA draft regime will indeed be easier to judge in a few  years when the last of his picks are out of the game or establishing themselves - but if you look at the likes of Alford, Smith Jr. (who I had written off after last year), Leblebjijian, Jansen, Tellez,  Pentacost, Pruitt and fringey names like Ryan McBroom, Jon Berti, Derick Loveless and Andrew Guillotte there is still some reason for optimism.  With Danny Barnes looking like a big leaguer to stay, there are only 2 guys left in the minors from the 2010 draft - Pompey and Shane Opitz.  Injuries have really wrought havoc on some of our position guys. 

Anyone have a feel for how good we've been with our international FAs?  Obviously Vlad and Urena are homeruns, and there are a bunch of guys in the bottom half of out top 30 that were signees, but a lot of our big bonuses recently have gone to guys like Juan Meza, yeltsin gudino and kevin vicuna who are struggling or a long way off. 

That's crazy about the allstar HRs AWeb. 

Grand Slam Goins!

The game is safe for Jason Grilli?

For the first month I thought Batista was done, but I guess I was wrong about that.

If he keeps hitting then I can honestly see them keeping him around for longer than this year if they can find a younger RF option and move him into a DH/1B role. That would mean either moving Morales or a Smoak implosion.

If this game isn't Grilli/Howell safe then the team is rolling with a 23 or 24 man roster for no good reason. Either they can pitch in a game like today or they should be cut. You can't roll Tepera, Barnes and Smith out every game, much as Gibbons appears to want to.

Probably no Grilli or Howell now...

jerjapan -

Regarding IFA Hits/Miss:

Home Runs:

Franklin Barretto (1.45 M) -2012
Osuna (1.5M) - 2011
Vlad Jr (3.9M) -2015

Prospects:

Richard Urena (0.750M) - 2012
Dawel Lugo (1.3M) - 2011
Wil Beccera (1.3M) - 2011
Jairo Labourt (0.350M) -2011
Francisco Rios (unknown) - 2012
Angel Perdomo (unknown) - 2011


Some Notable Misses:

Juan Meza (1.6M) - 2014
Yeltsin Gugino (1.2M) - 2013
Jesus Gonzalez ($1.4M) - 2012
Cardona (2.8M) - 2010
Gabriel Cenas (0.7M)-2010
Santiago Nessy (0.75M) - 2009
Gustavo Pierre (0.7M) - 2008
Balbino Fuenmayor (0.725M) - 2006

In short we had strong years in 2011, 2012 and 2015. We missed on our big singings in 2010, 2014 and 2014. There are still some guys in the 2014 class like Vicuna or Hansel Rodriguez who might turn it around.

Agree with most of the international appraisals except for Yeltsin Gudino. He is holding his own at Lansing and is still young for the level.

Grilli in the ninth with a 4 run lead?  Probably reasonable in light of the heavy use of the other 4.  I'd rather have Howell out there against Shaw though. 

21-26 with Donaldson and Tulo set to come back is better than I was expecting a few weeks ago. They still have a ton of ground to make up, but despite massive amounts of injuries and a lineup outnumbered by replacement level talent, they've been able to avoid being buried.

Agreed about Bautista. He looked old and overmatched in April, but has come back strong this month. Hopefully the bad luck with injuries can slow down a bit and the team can slowly start to get healthy.

"....You can't roll Tepera, Barnes and Smith out every game, much as Gibbons appears to want to..."

 He didn't use any of them today.  He has a pretty good sense of when a 4-run lead needs a lockdown strategy with his better relievers, and when it is safe in the hands of Loup and Grilli.  It depends on the situation -- there are no firm rules about it -- but Gibbons has a good feel for it.

I find it odd that your post specifically criticized Gibbons while saying nothing about the Front Office decision-makers who have deliberately kept Grilli and Howell on the roster.  Gibbons can't be blamed for using his best relievers in high-leverage situations.  If he is rarely choosing to use Grilli and Howell except in mop-up situations, it's a clear sign that the Front Office should DFA them. That's up to the Front Office, not Gibby.  If he is saddled with bad relievers, it's quite understandable that he will rarely use them.  I can only guess that the Front Office is reluctant to abandon their multimillion-dollar investment in those two duds.  In any event, it makes little sense for fans to admit that there are only 4 or 5 good relievers on the team and then to complain about their over-use.

By the way, has anyone heard a recent report on Steve Pearce?  Would be nice to get him back too.  Without him on the roster, Carrera is likely to get over-exposed.   I assume Coghlan will be dumped and Smith demoted when Tulo and Donaldson return.  That leaves only Carrera for the LF slot.

Happ and Liriano might be back within a couple weeks.  Maybe Sanchez too.   But in the interim, another starter will be needed next week, probably a Buffalo pitcher.  Who should get the start?

He looked old and overmatched in April

Not to me, but mainly because no one is that old and overmatched. Ken Huckaby could come out of retirement and hit better than Bautista did in April. Plus he was actually looking more spry in the field than he has in a couple of years. He was seeing (and continues to see) far more breaking balls than ever before - I suppose the rest of the league finally got the memo - which may have required a Period of Adjustment. But mainly I think his swing was messed up. When Bautista's himself, he holds the bat directly over his head almost parallel to the ground. But through much of April, his bat angle as he awaited the pitch often approached 45 degrees. He didn't look like himself at all.

I thought that Bautista's timing was off in April.  He was missing many more fastballs at 93 down the middle than he has since 2010. It was a bit strange because he was so hot in the spring, but I guess timing can come and go whether you're 26 or 36. 

I believe that Valdez will get the Tuesday start and that Sanchez will be out much longer than 2 weeks. Agree that it is time to DFA Howell. I would go a bit longer with Grilli. Chris Smith could be the next bullpen call up if needed.

I thought that Bautista's timing was off in April.

Yup, and that's what changing speeds is supposed to do to a hitter. It's not just that the breaking balls can be harder to hit - they mess up your timing on the fastball.

Sure, Magpie.  But Bautista has seen mostly breaking balls since 2010 (and actually was seeing more of them in 2011-13 than in the last few years), and they didn't affect his timing for long before.  For what it's worth, Bautista didn't hit 4 seamers particularly well last year either.  There is probably an aging thing going on in the background too.

Anyways, his timing seems to be back.  Long may it hold.  And he does look spry in the field. 

Shall we replace Coghlan?

About Coghlan, he played 3B and can play LF and RF. Looking at fangraphs leaderboard for AAA batters with 160 wRC+, Can we replace Coghlan?
The criteria are
1) he plays 3B, 1B, LF, RF.
2) he hits well
3) not a prospect so acquiring him costs less
4) he is not replacing other regular Jays, such as Travis, Morales, Smoak, Zeke etc.

The Indians promoted Daniel Robertson so he is off the radar. The Royals promoted Merrifield. The Mariners promoted Mike Freeman. The D-backs promoted Hazelbaker. David Freitas the Braves' catcher and Kevan Smith the White Sox areanother. However, both are a catcher and Lopez the aforementioned is already playing well in Buffalo.Zunino is another but he is a prospect. Roemon Fields is already a Jays' prospect.

So the only above 200 wRC+ who fits all the four criteria was the Canadian Jamie Romak but his contract was sold to South Korea on May 6th. Maybe the Jays should have snatched him after an April of AAA performance and let LHB Coghlan and RHB Romak -- the former is only 4 months elder -- to play for PAs and 3B when Donaldson is still not available.

Does Coghlan run fast and play good OF defense? Let us see if his 2015 16 HR season is repeatable. So shall we not replace Coghlan?

Draft question- do you guys want to see the org draft more position players?

Best player available. Always and forever.

Erratum:
However, both are catchers. I mentioned Lopez because I was working with another post about Raffey Lopez.

From Crasnick at ESPN a couple of days ago:

After a pathetic start, Bautista has come to life with six home runs and a .603 slugging percentage in May. He's seeing only 48 percent fastballs -- the lowest mark of his career -- and it doesn't help that Edwin Encarnacion is gone and Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki have both spent time on the disabled list.

"He's smart," an AL scout said of Bautista. "He knows what he can handle, and he's still a good mistake hitter. His bat has slowed a little bit, and he has to cheat a little against the real power pitchers. But guys make enough mistakes in the big leagues and don't execute enough that he's still going to do his damage."

Thanks for the list Shoeless, several names there I had forgotten about.  Is there a good online source for these signings, or are you just someone who follows closely and knows his stuff?  It will be interesting to see the 2016 signees in action this summer, and it'll be nice to be able to spend big again after the penalties for signing Vlad.

As for the pitching staff, TJ House has cooled off after a strong start and Oberholzer has been on the 7 day DL since the 15th, so Valdez makes sense to get the start.  Hard to know what to make of the guy given all his time in Mexico, but he's certainly a nice story of resilience.  We also signed Luca Harrell in the offseason, but he's been on the DL all year. 

I do agree that one of Grilli or Howell could get the axe once the injured pitchers come back ... assuming Barnes and Tepera are too important to ride the shuttle anymore, with a fully healthy staff we can only carry one of Grilli, Howell and Bolsinger in a 7 man pen.  At this point, I'd rather Dominic Leone than any of those guys, but there is something to be said about keeping as many assets around as possible in case one of them does a 2016 Grilli and turns things around midseason. 

Another question (apologies for reposting from another thread)-  how long can we run with Maille if he doesn't hit whatsoever?

No, you don't always draft the BPA. There are other factors such as signing cost that need to be taken into consideration. There is no team that always drafts the BPA all of the time.

Hypobole, Crasnick is getting his data from one part of  fangraphs.  There are two parts to the fangraphs pitch frequency data. The pitchfx data, which breaks it down into four-seamers, two-seamers and cutters, shows that he's seeing more four-seamers, fewer two-seamers and  about the same number of cutters as he was in 2013-15.  He is seeing more sliders.

We can run indefinitely with Maile as a back up as he seems the equal of Martin defensively. He may even be better at shutting down the running game and the pitchers love him. He is easily the best back up the Jays have had in some time.

And as for comments on Coghlan, He is not a good hitter and he certainly cannot play 3b. He can try but he fails. Why do you think JBO was put there yesterday.

Either Coghlan or Howell will be DFA on Friday imo.

Congrats to Dwight Smith Jr. for his first MLB hit with that 9th inning opposite field double today. His reward - a demotion to Buffalo.

PeterG, I thought those things, but didn't think they needed to be said. I guess they did.

I can't quite put it to words, but something like "best signable player, who matches your franchise's plan". I have no interest in not drafting a stud pitcher because we need to have a position player. You can work it out during the time it takes to develop players.

agreed with magpie that the "too old" theory for joey's april was a bit too easy and maybe lazy analysis.

i remember Ortiz having a similarly pathetic start to one of his mid30s season and Boston fans were all for waiving him, so it's not just us.

anyways - 5 and 7gms back of the two division leaders, both of whom are castles made if sand imo. and our troops are coming back.

I don't understand keeping Coghlan around over Smith when your left-handed LF isn't capable of playing everyday effectively.

well we don't know if Jays are keeping Coghlan as someone needs to be DFA on Friday if Tulo and Donaldson both return. Smith will get another opportunity.

Draft question- do you guys want to see the org draft more position players?

I'd like them to draft almost nothing but position players in the early rounds. I'm not even really kidding.

I was assuming the Jays would go to 8 RP for the weekend and that Coghlan was staying even if Donaldson is ready Friday.

Dropping Coghlan too so Cesar Valdez can start on Tuesday is an even worse plan. Why not just roll with Oberholtzer or House so you aren't playing all weekend shorthanded? It's hopefully only one start anyway, Liriano should be able to slide into that rotation spot afterwards.

Oberholtzer is injured and is not major league caliber anyway.. If you bring up House you run the risk of losing him when attempting to return him to Buffalo. Valdez is the only logical candidate imo as he can be moved up and down at will (subject to 10 day recall rule)

Pearce has a calf issue like Donaldson. I don't expect to see him soon.

Pompey should be up on the club as soon as he's eligible to come off the 60DL.
He's going to take a spot on the 40 roster anyway...

Good call on the 40 man with Pompey, but I think the kid needs reps in Buffalo before getting the call.  I'd love to see him have a run of success in a sheltered environment, he's had rotten luck.

I disagree with you on Oberholzer PeterG - he's about the same value as House in my book - both 27 years old with some successful runs in the bigs, both mid-round draft picks, neither guy is overpowering.  Oberholzer was the higher draft pick and has had the longer run in the bigs.  Still think you are likely right about Valdez getting the start though.

House has had some success in the bigs before injuries. Oberholtzer was never (except for 2013) successful and has been in the minors due to performance.

Here are his ERAs in the show: 2.76, 4.39, 4.46, 5.89, 4.83, 8.55

for the most part, progressively worse. I have seen him pitch and think that he has nowhere near major league caliber stuff.

Frank Thomas also had some abysmal starts late in his career, and it turned out alright.

I still think Pearce's importance to this team is a little understated. Even with Bautista bouncing back of late, he's the 2nd best hitter on the team.

Well, Smith and Alford have been up.  Ceciliani is injured. Roemon Fields has an OPS of .957 in 19 games in  Buffalo. Pompey is on his last year of option, he's certainly better than Coghlan in LF. Pillar is probably sticking at CF for another few years.

Tulo's last game was April 21.  After that game, the club's record was 4-12.  It has now been over a month without Tulowitzki and Donaldson (and with numerous other injuries in the interval).  The club has gone 17-14 during that period.  That is excellent in the circumstances. 

I wonder if Barney is going to go on the DL now.  He's missed a few days with a minor injury, and with the returns, there is no need for him to be active unless completely healthy. 

some might even want to credit the manager with somehow piecing together some wins with this threadbare roster.

Nah.  But I won't blame him either for the 4-12 record that the club had with all the stars in the lineup.  The overall record that the club has had is entirely consistent with the roster and the injuries.  Gibbons has done some things well and some things not so well, as per usual.  The best news (and I'll give Gibbons some credit for that) is the increased role for Smith, Tepera and Barnes, along with the revival of Loup.  Biagini is going to be fine in the rotation also.  If the club can get 35-40 starts out of Liriano, Happ and Sanchez, they should be in decent shape.  And if Pompey (or Smith Jr.) can come back in June and deliver actual value in a corner outfield role, they should be better than that. 

eh, managers can't do much about how the big dogs perform. But I think they can really make an impact in how the bottom roster players contribute.....and it's been pretty impressive what the bottom of the roster has been able to do, imo.

Well, Donaldson was hitting like gangbusters at the start of the season but the bullpen was a mess and Gibbons was giving way too much work to Salty.  Speaking of which, I think that Luke Maile is going to be a fine back-up catcher and might indeed take an increasing share of the load in the next few years.   This is good news both for him and for Russell Martin (who I hope ends up as a Blue Jay lifer)

I was expecting the Jays to fall off a lot worse than this with the bad start coupled with the injuries, but credit to the team for being able to keep their heads reasonably above water. Once they start getting their players back, hopefully they can start to go on a real run. I believe they are 15-9 since the 6-17 start. Considering some of the lineups they have trotted out in that time, that's a pretty good accomplishment.

The ride is up and down for sure. Last week Mon - Sat 1W and 5L.

I was worried.

Still an 86W - 76L record is possible. There is time. Probably gets us nothing but the excitement of being in contention for the 2nd WC.

Happ pitching for Dunedin tonight. Pearce headed to FLA to start rehab.

Fangraphs has the Jays projection at 82 wins now, right behind projected 2nd WC winner Baltimore with 83. They have the Jays a good distance behind Boston and New York in the East (and Houston/Cleveland in the other divisions).

The bad start to the season really puts the Jays in a tough spot. They have very little margin for error, and have to avoid further injuries if/when their main guys come back. A WC spot is probably the ceiling for this season unless they go '2nd half 2015' at some point (unlikely). They have a lot of time to continue to make up ground, they just can't afford any more prolonged slumps. Hopefully, April was the worst of it.

Speaking of which, I think that Luke Maile is going to be a fine back-up catcher and might indeed take an increasing share of the load in the next few years.

To me, he looks like the new Kevin Cash: great defensively, but can't hit a lick. Not sure how far you can go with someone like that. I really like his defense, though.

Gibbons has done some things well and some things not so well, as per usual.

Gibbons seems more obsessed with bunting this year than he has been in the past - more than he should be, I think. He's done the same thing this year with the bullpen that he did last year: kept trying players until he found ones that could do the job. This year, he's managed to find competent relief pitchers sooner (and Joe Smith is actually handling the 8th inning, which Drew Storen couldn't).

Unfortunately, I fear that we had to expect that injuries would happen, given that the starting lineup is so old.

Frank Thomas also had some abysmal starts late in his career, and it turned out alright.

I was curious, so I looked him up in Baseball Reference. (I love Baseball Reference.) The only years that I could see where he had really slow starts, during this millennium at least, were 2006 and 2008. He actually started OK in 2007, but had an awful May.

I tend to think of an older hitter getting off to an awful start as a warning sign of aging - it's harder to get older bones going on cold April days, perhaps. :-)

I'd like them to draft almost nothing but position players in the early rounds. I'm not even really kidding.

I wonder whether the Jays have been focusing on drafting pitchers because (a) quality free agent pitchers have been commanding really expensive contracts, and (b) the Jays lost a boatload of starters to injuries all at once, and decided they'd better stockpile pitchers to allow for the fact that at least half of them will blow up.

But I've long wondered whether anyone actually knows anything about amateur drafting. It all seems to be just luck whether one particular 18-year-old high schooler or 21-year-old college graduate can fight his way past the hundreds of other players who are just about as good at playing baseball as he is.

I find it hard to complain about the lack of drafted position players when a) we've been able to trade pitching prospects for elite position players, and b) we've been so damn good at drafting pitchers.

I'd prefer a position player heavy draft emphasis if given the choice. Obviously if there is a big time arm available, then you go for it, but building a team of young position players and then finding Estrada's, Happ's, etc, to fill out the rotation would be my general preference on team building. The Mets are an example of the upside of young pitching and also the downside.

With that said, just fill the system with good prospects, regardless of where they play, and then work on developing them to the best of their abilities. A lot of it is out of the team's control anyway (injuries, underachieving, etc).

And I guess my bigger beef is that I can't shake the feeling that if the Jays had produced a bunch of position players but no pitchers, the same people would be complaining about them never producing pitchers.

There's a bit of a timing quirk in the position player/pitcher distribution.  Anthopoulos drafted mostly pitchers and the best of them are already in the majors.  His key position player drafts and international signings (Alford, Urena, Guerrero Jr.) are still in the system.  The new regime drafted Zeuch in the 1stround Woodman and Bichette in the 2nd round and Zach Jackson in the 3rd round last year.  I'd call that a balanced approach. 

It sure would be nice if the club could come to terms with Stroman on a long-term contract.  It is better for reasons of flexibility to have most  (but not all) of the key pitching needs met from within the organization.  That probably means having one of Stroman or perhaps Sanchez in 3 or 4 years.  Stroman seems a likelier bet.

"we've been able to trade pitching prospects for elite position players"

Who would that be? Donaldson was acquired with Lawrie. The pitching prospects were used to acquire David Price and RA Dickey.

Who would that be?

Tulo for Hoffman.

Don't know Beane's evaluation of the the guys he received, but I would rate Barreto as the key piece. I thought Graveman, because of his years of control, was actually more valuable than Lawrie.

Speaking of Bautista's improving fortunes, I'm feeling better about this comment I made on April 22:

For what it's worth, there is precedent for a slugger around Bautista's age to have an atrocious April, and then continue on with a very productive career.

In April 2010, David Ortiz had a wRC+ of 38 (Bautista currently has a wRC+ of 36). Ortiz turned it around in May and finished with 2.5 fWAR that year, and went on to post an additional 19.5 fWAR from 2011-2016.

If Price can stay healthy, the Red Sox rotation just got a nice upgrade. A starting five of Sale/Price/Rodriguez/Porcello/Pomeranz should be pretty decent going forward (see May 25 Fangraphs article on E-Rod's improvement this year).

It's hard to get into the brain of Beane to understand that trade since it is, was, and always will be an insane deal (Barreto can only soften the blow if he pans out), but Lawrie and Barreto were definitely the key pieces in that move. Lawrie was a former top prospect, age 25, coming off a 2 WAR season in 70 games. I'm assuming Beane thought that he was a buy low candidate who could be a 3-4 WAR player for the A's, while Barreto improved their farm system after they gutted it the previous season. I'm sure Graveman was acquired because of his years of control and perceived floor, but he was not an integral part of the deal.

Still an awful trade for the A's no matter the justification, but that was a move centered around position players.

the Donaldson deal wasn't as insane on Beane's end as it looked at the time, IMO.  It's like calling the Dickey deal insane - in hindsight, for sure, but Nolin and particularly Graveman looked like controllable arms who could flourish in Oakland.  Nolin was the 4th guy in the package, but his injury hurt the results, as did Lawrie's complete collapse. 

Barreto was always the key piece, and he's a great prospect.  But Graveman has provided just north of $20 million in value for the A's per Fangraphs, at league minimum, and has another year before he hits arbitration.  Of course, Fangraphs has JD at over $135 million in value for the Jays .... that's $70 million more value when you subtract salaries. 

I recall some insightful posters round here being worried about the deal at the time.  I always liked Beane for his willingness to do the seemingly crazy - high risk, high reward - although clearly his glory days are behind him. 

The player has to be willing to trade maximum pay potential for security.
Long term deals with Ricky Romero, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios were complete disasters.
Roy Halladay was a good deal for the team, but I can't remember anyone else working out in a lifetime.

Lawrie was projected to be similar in value as donaldson the next year, I remember. Both lawrie and josh projected to be around 4war players. But turns out Donaldson's big year wasn't a fluke, and that Lawrie for some reason or another crapped out.

trade wasn't crazy on the surface. remember after bautista'z similar breakout year as donaldson, many were worried about him being worth $10m/yr going forward. So donaldson was anything but a safe bet.

Checked the Donaldson trade thread in the archives. Nov 28/14

John Northey pointed out Steamer projected JD for 5.6 WAR.

Lawrie was worth a total of 5.5 WAR the last 3 seasons in Toronto. Don't know what system would project him for 3-4 WAR.

Also, maybe my memory is not the best either, but I don't recall Mike ever giving me the pumpkin.

For some reason I misremembered the trade as being Lawrie straight up for Donaldson, so mea culpa on that.

Tulo is not an elite hitter, and I would still argue that the notion that we have traded a lot of our pitching prospects for elite position players does not hold up under scrutiny. Lawrie may not have been the centrepiece but he was still an important part of that trade and there haven't been any other examples mentioned.

I thought it was a heist at the time. Never really made sense for the A's since Donaldson had an extra year of team control over Lawrie, and aside from Barreto (who was still very young and many years away), the secondary pieces weren't intriguing enough to lose that extra year of arb that Donaldson had. I would not compare it to the Dickey deal. I don't remember many deals made by any team that would be a solid comparison to this one. An MVP candidate in his prime-ish age traded with four years of arbitration left. Doesn't happen often.

Thanks hypobole. The article link is this.

Always fun to look back at how we all reacted to big moves at the time. Tons of love for the trade at the time.

I love my point about "like Martin, it is odd as it is upgrading a position from OK to 'wow'. Much harder to do that than to upgrade, say, 2B from 'ugh' to 'OK'." as it is so true. Upgrading 'meh' to 'wow' isn't easy yet AA did that a few times - Reyes to Tulo, Lawrie to Donaldson, Dioner Navarro to Russell Martin to name a few.

With everyday players you only get 9 slots to use (counting DH) and you want to maximize how much WAR you get from each slot. Playing 1-2 WAR guys won't win championships. You need stars at a few and upgrades are hard once you get to mediocre at a position. 6 month season and nearly 2 months done so to be a 3+ WAR player (needed for titles) you must be at 1 WAR now or you must play really well from here on out. Using rWAR I see Pillar is at 1.8, Smoak at 0.9 is very close, at 0.5 we have Bautista and Martin. For pitching we have Estrada 1.8, Stroman 1.7, Joe Smith and Tepera at 0.7. at 0.5 and 0.6 we have Sanchez, Barnes, Biagini, and Osuna.

well, lawrie had put up 8.1war in his first 1431pa at that point (around 3.5war per 650pa), and had just put up 1.8war in 242pa the year prior at age 24 (almost a 5war pace). pretty sure all the projections had him around 4 wins or so the next year.

maybe it was zips that had donaldson around the same as lawrie, not sure.

but statistically speaking there was actually a half decent rationale that the A's were getting more war/$ going forward than the jays, even though the jays were upgrading immediately.

but then Donaldson became better than ever while Lawrie lost his marbles.

Here's a line you don't see every day from a pitcher:

1 0 0 0 0 4

The pitcher is Kimbrel and here's how it transpired in yesterday's game against Texas:

Mazara struck out swinging, Mazara safe at first on wild pitch.
Lucroy struck out looking.
Odor struck out swinging.
Napoli struck out swinging.

If Price can stay healthy, the Red Sox rotation just got a nice upgrade. A starting five of Sale/Price/Rodriguez/Porcello/Pomeranz should be pretty decent going forward (see May 25 Fangraphs article on E-Rod's improvement this year).

Sale is great. Pomeranz is just an average pitcher and Porcello has been pretty average himself so far.
Price should be good, but nothing is automatic.  Also, with Wright gone they have no depth. The 3 AAA guys they've used have all been bad.

The key thing with Boston is doubling down on Sandoval. Hanley Ramirez is no big Pappi. Sandy Leon is hitting like a catcher again and Mitch Moreland is currently having a career year which is likely to see regression.

The Jays are just 4.5 games behind Boston. That could melt quickly if Donaldson is healthy and the pitching hold.

Hanley is no Big Papi indeed, but Rafael Devers just might be.   I don't know if the Sox would be willing to promote him aggressively, but if he can handle third, the Sox suddenly look even more dangerous.  

the idea that boston has been unlucky via unexpected poor performances or injury so far is wrong. Individually most every player is at or exceeding expectations, and they've been very healthy.

It is still early in the season. Looks like nobody is out of the WC race in the AL. KC is last at 6 gm back.
The NL is another story. 3 teams are playing under .400 ball.

As Jays fans we/I look at the standings from a different point of view. Our team is heading in the right direction and has a month and a half to get into a position of contention. IMO 3 gms behind the 2nd WC with a winning record overall is my minimal requirement. IMo other team's fans probably think the same way in general.

rereading that donaldson trade thread.....shout out to Mr.Northey for calling the tulo trade a year in advance.

crazy good call. you're likely the only person anywhere who saw the possibility.

and i'd hold back on the devers hype. he's finally having his first legit good offensive year since rookie ball, but his AA hitting right now is not even as good as what guys like Tellez and Pompey did there at the same age.

and he probably doesn’t have the defensive chops to be a good 3B.

Saw it as a super-logical trade for both teams. Reyes had a short term expensive contract and Tulo a longer term one. The Jays were trying to win now and Tulo was one of the few premium players whose team was trying to trade due to budget issues. Worked out nicely for the Jays I'd say.

Tulo: 4.9 rWAR as a Jay
LaTroy Hawkins: 0.1 rWAR as a Jay - useful at a key time.
for...
Jesus Tinoco: still in minors (22 in A+ with a 4.28 ERA over 5 starts, just 4.6 K/9 this year, 7.0 lifetime)
Miguel Castro: -0.5 rWAR as a Rockie, sent to O's for cash
Jeff Hoffman: -0.1 rWAR so far (+0.5 so far in 2017) so he could still be a spoiler for the Jays
Jose Reyes: -0.2 rWAR as a Rockie and released while being paid $26 mil more while not a Rockie.

So the Jays got 5.0 rWAR from 2 players vs the -0.8 rWAR the Rockies have received thus far with only Hoffman having any shot to make it a good trade for Colorado. Jays have 3 more years of Tulo at least to look forward to with a $15 mil option for 2021 vs $4 mil buyout ($11 mil might be the cost for a 1 WAR player by then, or a mediocre backups price).

Cesar Valdez joins Dwight Smith on the road to Buffalo.

Valdez optioned down. Does this eliminate Valdez as a possibility for the Tuesday start? As far as I recall from the rules, a player who is optioned to the minors must stay there for 10 days, unless there is an injury. (And let's really hope there are no more injuries in the next four days.)

If I'm reading the rules correctly, then the Tuesday start would have to go to someone like Latos or House.

A strong lineup for the Jays tonight, almost the way it was planned in the spring. Donaldson batting 2nd, Tulo batting 7th. That bumps Travis down to the 8th spot. It's a nice luxury to have one of the team's hottest-hitting players in the 8th spot. Arguably he should be higher in the lineup. Also I wonder if Morales should continue to keep the clean-up spot. Maybe he should be bumped down the lineup somewhat.

Carrera is now batting 9th, with Pearce still nowhere near a return. That's the only lineup spot that looks different from the spring plan.

With Bolsinger on the mound tonight, the Jays will need their offence to be in high gear.

Joey Gallo comes into town a veritable TTO poster boy. 58% of his plate appearances have ended in a SO, BB or HR.

But he doesn't lead MLB! A quick spin through the majors, recognizing I could have missed someone:

• Sano 59%
• Gallo 58%
• Schmipf 55%
• Story 55%
• Rasmus 55%
• Judge 52% (thought for sure he'd be higher)

Bunching up the slow muscle guys in the middle of the lineup and the guys who scoot at the bottom and top was a LaRussa strategy with the White Sox of the mid-80s.  It makes a certain amount of sense.  It's nice to have Travis on base with Carrera up because it does make the (surprise) bunt more effective.  I am not, I emphasize, suggesting that the traditional sacrifice is a good option, but rather that it is nice for Carrera to have the option of trying to bunt for a base hit with Travis on rather than someone slower. 

Gibbons apparently said that Happ could very well get the start here on Tuesday, and that Liriano will get a rehab start in Buffalo. As Buddy Holly said, well all right. 

man if Pearce comes back and hits, and pillar/smoak don't fall of a cliff, gibby can just pick the lineup out of a hat.

They had everybody at the start of the year but it didn't work. 

The above-average hitters on the club are probably limited to Donaldson, Bautista, Travis and (perhaps) Pillar.  Tulo, Smoak  Martin and Morales are all probably right around average. Carrera is below average.  It should be a good offence when everyone is healthy, but not a great one. 

You could go with Happ for say 60 pitches and then go with Johnny Alstaff after that.

If I'm reading the rules correctly, then the Tuesday start would have to go to someone like Latos or House.

A possibility might be to put Barney on the DL, and bring back Valdez if necessary.

I was wondering why the club didn't go with Estrada for tonight's game (on 4 days rest) and then again on Wednesday.

Tulo is a better hitter than Bautista/Travis/Pillar/Martin/Smoak 8 days a week.

Donaldson was acquired with Lawrie.

I believe Lawrie was acquired for Marcum. Sure, he wasn't a "prospect" anymore, but he was a pitcher we drafted, IIRC..

"The above-average hitters on the club are probably limited to Donaldson, Bautista, Travis and (perhaps) Pillar. Tulo, Smoak Martin and Morales are all probably right around average. Carrera is below average. It should be a good offence when everyone is healthy, but not a great one."

eh, I dunno. I think a lineup with elite hitting at the top and average hitting right down to the bottom is better than just ok.

try to find another offense that can match this past-calendar-year wrc+:

Donaldson 167
Morales 124
Martin 120
Bautista 115
Tulo 108
Pearce 103
Pillar 101
Travis 101
Smoak 97

or last 2 calendar years:

Donaldson 157
Bautista 134
Pearce 115
Morales 114
Travis 107
Tulowitzki 105
Smoak 105
Martin 100
Pillar 99

Both Bautista and Travis have hit better than Tulo as a Jay this year, last year and the year before.

I'm assuming you really like Tulo.

I really like all players with hall of fame numbers like Tulo. If he hits this year like the past 2 years then the jig is up, but I'm confident he will be the 2nd best hitter on this team by year end and back to elite production. All the important numbers a d still there for him.