Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

A winning night on the farm saw a doubleheader sweep account for half of the win total. A one-run loss prevented a perfect night.

Buffalo Bisons

Dwight Smith Jr. is pushing for another call up to Toronto. He smacked a three-run home run, singled twice and walked while going 5-for-8 since his return to the Herd.

Chris Smith extended his scoreless string to 6-1/3 innings over five appearances. He has struck out seven and walked only one.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Jon Harris allowed just a solo home run to cross the plate over six innings to pick up his second Double-A victory. He scattered six other hits, walked a batter, struck out three and induced six groundball outs. Andrew Case blew the save opportunity in the second game but picked up the win in a two-inning appearance. Josh DeGraaf pitched three shutout innings of one-hit ball with a 3-3 K/BB total.

Emilio Guerrero socked a two-run homer to extend his hit streak to six games. Andrew Guillotte went 3-for-3 in his Double-A debut with a double and a stolen base after a brief trip to Buffalo via Dunedin. Jonathan Davis homered and walked in the second game of the doubleheader.

Dunedin Blue Jays

Troy Tulowitzki homered and walked and played all nine innings at short. Josh Donaldson was 2-for-3 with a walk and a run batted in while playing the entire game at third. Lane Thomas had a two-hit game, Max Pentecost singled and waked and D.J. Davis had a base hit and his 11th stolen base, which is the fifth highest total in the Florida State League.

Ryan Borucki surrendered a two-run homer over a season-high six frames as well as five more hits and a hit by pitch. He struck out five while getting six outs on the grass for the victory. Tom Robson pitched 1-1/3 shutout innings with four groundball outs to give him seven scoreless appearances over his last nine. Daniel Young stranded a runner and offset a hit with a strikeout enroute to a five-out save.

Lansing Lugnuts

Christian Williams had an RBI double to tie the game and a sacrifice fly to bring home the winner. He is 6-for-13 in his last three games and seven RBI in his last four but the 6-foot-3 first baseman is still looking for his first homer of the year. Edward Olivares tripled and scored the winning run. Bo Bichette was 1-for-4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the day off.

Patrick Murphy was an out short of a quality start, giving up three runs over 5-2/3 innings. The last two batters he faced resulted in a double and a two-run home run. He gave up two long balls among six hits, walked a batter and struck out three. Dan Lietz walked the first man he faced but whiffed four of the seven hitters he faced over 2-1/3 scoreless frames to get the win. Jackson McClelland pitched a one-hit, one-K ninth for his eighth save.

Tuesday's Linescores

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Jon Harris, New Hampshire

2. Andrew Guillotte, New Hampshire

1. Dwight Smith Jr., Buffalo

Wednesday's Games/Probable Starters

Portland @ New Hampshire, 10:35 am ET - Conner Greene (1-3, 3.69)
Fort Myers @ Dunedin, 6:30 pm ET - Conor Fisk (2-4, 4.21)
Buffalo @ Gwinnett, 7:05 pm ET - Luis Santos (1-2, 3.52)
Lake County @ Lansing, 7:05 pm ET - Justin Maese (4-2, 4.09)

Extra Innings

The Buffalo News says the Bisons have unveiled their Star Wars jersey.
Rob Fai looks at who might be on the Vancouver Canadians roster in 2017.
Here's a story on the newest New Hampshire Fisher Cat Andrew Guillotte.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 12:42 AM EDT.

Dwight And Power | 22 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

jerjapan - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#342398) #

Clutchlings has some in-depth coverage up on Jays prospects of note including longshot relief prospect Chris Rowley (who's got at least 8 guys ahead of him on the relief depth chart, but still looks intriguing), hard-luck callup AA, and catcher-of-the-future Danny Jansen, who attributes much of his offensive success this season to his wearing sports glasses for the first time. He's having an exciting breakout season, and is arguably a top ten Jays prospect right now.

https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/

Is Andrew Guillote becoming a longshot prospect to watch? we've seen other minor league OFs tease here and there - Derick Loveless and Jonathan Davis have had their moments - but Guillotte has done nothing but rake all year, and has always had OBP skills and SBs. He has a career CF range factor of 2.32 - is that any good? I don't have a sense of what is average / above average with this stat.

Jay Blue's 2017 prospect guide (well worth picking up) has an interview with Lansing broadcaster Kevin Gehl who lauded Guillotte as a character guy who plays the OF well and is Lansing's 'under the radar' player for 2016.

dan gordon - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#342414) #

Guillotte is certainly on a roll, 17 for his last 31. He's an older prospect at 24, but he's been moving up the organization quickly, 5 levels now since being drafted in 2015. The range factor of 2.32 in CF is excellent. To compare to some other Jays' prospects, DJ Davis has a RF of 2.09 as a CF, Pompey is 2.15 in CF, and R. Pruitt is 2.17. With the walks and the steals, in addition to the defense, I'd say he has a shot if he can hit for a decent average, which is something that hasn't really been there until this recent hot streak. He has shown no power, and at his size, he's unlikely to ever develop much of it. Will be interesting to see if this recent streak is a mirage, or if he can hit for a good average at AA ball.

jerjapan - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#342431) #

Agreed Dan, I'll be following him - I like my scrappy, undersized longshots - as I assume you do, given your interest in the minors.

I get the premise of range factor, but I'm not sure what league average is considered for the different positions? Is there a benchmark or is it best simply to compare players?

PeterG - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#342438) #

NH lost 2 more players to injury today. I wouldn't mind seeing Jake Thomas jumped 2 levels to help out there. As he is not considered a top prospect, no harm done if he scuffles. On the other hand, there is always the possibility of a positive surprise. If they need someone who can play several positions, Brad Jones would be another possibility.

#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#342441) #

A couple of transactions involving pitchers. Justin Maese has been activated by Lansing. Tayler Saucedo has been assigned to extended spring.

lexomatic - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#342447) #

I get the premise of range factor, but I'm not sure what league average is considered for the different positions? Is there a benchmark or is it best simply to compare players?

Part of the problem is range factor is influenced by the makeup of a pitching staff. A groundball heavy staff reduces chances, a flyball happy one increases them. Looking at the stat without also looking at staff gb/fb ratios and then league ones could give a very misleading image. It also doesn't really measure range in the way the new statcast stats do, like measuring how far a fielder ran to make a catch. The way the game changes also affects things, like 2B Nap Lajoie having really high totals of PO or A (I don't remember which) and circumstances changed over the years so players don't have as high totals, so some systems rate him highly on defense. I THINK that's an anecdote from Bill James' win shares book.

I always found MLB stats higher than the minors http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/range_factor_per_game_cf_leagues.shtml

Nigel - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#342448) #

I'm sure Guillote's defence suffers in my memory from last year's efforts by Palacios and Woodman (both of whom showed the promise of being above average to plus defenders), but I would describe his defence as unremarkable. That probably sounds worse than I mean it. I saw him play quite a bit and really can't remember much about his defence. Which means that he did very little wrong but also nothing that made you think his defence might add to his on-field value.

dan gordon - Wednesday, May 24 2017 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#342449) #

Yes, there is a lot involved in a full analysis of range factor. For a quick idea of a guy in the minors, I just look at other players at his position in the same organization. If you go to baseball reference, and look up a guy who plays the position, you can see the mlb league average RF per 9 and per game for the seasons the player has been in the league. For CF, it's around 2.50 - 2.60 per game, depending on what seasons you are including. Trout, interestingly, is 2.57. Pillar is 2.53. I find it to be an interesting way of tracking an outfielder's speed. You can see the gradual decline in RF as the player gets into his late 20's, 30's. Well, sometimes not so gradual.

jerjapan - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#342454) #

Thanks for the thoughts on range factor and Guillott'es D. Love this about the Box, I'm always learning something.

it seems eye witness reports and range factor, while flawed, are the best indicator of a minor leaguer's D? I'm sure the clubs have proprietary stats that they use but are there any other advanced defensive stats available for minor leaguers to the general fan?

lexomatic - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#342465) #

I just looked at Baseball Reference Stats, and didn't realize he'd played mostly in RF and SS. The RF (3.17) range factor is VERY good. About 1.5-2 times the field -
teams with guys who played 15+ games at the position. Only guys close are Zach Coppola 2.8 (10gp) from Clearwater, and Daniel Kihle 2.67 (12gp) in Fort Myers, and Manny Sanchez 2.73 (15 gp) in Charlotte . I'm not sure if end of the year defensive stats will be more easily checked, but for now you have to look team-by-team. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/league.cgi?id=56bc13d4#all_league_fielding I didn't check to see if any of them are prospects.
Again, something that I didn't mention in the earlier post, is handedness of pitching staff could make a difference to chances as well as stadium dimensions.

I guess the question is... when injured players come back, does Guillotte go back to AA, or stay in AAA (yes, if he's still hitting, I think).

bpoz - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#342466) #

In drafting there is a philosophy of "take the best player available". Maybe there is a similar philosophy in minor league assignments.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#342467) #

Range Factor is weakly linked to defensive ability (as it does not take into account number of opportunities at all) . Kevin Pillar's minor league range factors, for instance, were decent, but not great.

It is possible that Guillotte is a very good defensive centerfielder. He seems to be gaining better control over the strike zone. He is obviously a longshot, but you can imagine him as a major leaguer. The club is giving him quite a bit of work in the middle infield, so I guess the most likely place for him would be as a super-utility player who can steal a base.

uglyone - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#342469) #

One of the best minor league statistical indicators for defensive value in the majors is actually SBs.

jerjapan - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#342481) #

That's darn interesting Ugly - is that your take on the issue, or is there a consensus around that? It makes sense that minor league SBs are highly reflective of athleticism, but where do speedy guys with lousy base stealing instincts - your DJ Davis types - fit in? Or your stationary Justin Smoak types who get praised for their glove but couldn't steal a base if their life depended on it? In other words, what do you look for?

uglyone - Thursday, May 25 2017 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#342488) #

chris mitchell does KATOH at fangraphs and of course projecting defense statistically is by far the hardest part of projecting prospects. but he's run correlations for pretty much every individual stat and he says the only one that correlates at all with future defensive war is milb SB. though I don't think it's an especially strong correlation.

but mostly i'd guess it's just a good indicator of athleticism and maybe an ability to get good jumps.

dan gordon - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#342494) #

A lot of defensive ability results from speed for outfielders and to an extent, for middle infielders. Bill James used to say that he used a group of factors to determine a player's speed, including stolen base %, triples, and number of times he grounds into double plays. He did an interesting comparison between Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle to see how they compared in terms of speed (before Mantle severely injured his knee of course). His conclusion was that the general view that Mays was faster was unfounded and that Mantle was probably slightly faster.

Mike Green - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#342500) #

Incidentally, the scouting descriptions of defensive capabilities are only somewhat better. You don't need one look or five looks to get some kind of reasonable impression- you need thirty or fifty. How do you know whether an outfielder gets good reads on balls off the bat? You simply cannot do it by seeing him two or three times.

uglyone - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#342503) #

yeah agreee with that for sure Mike. scouting defensive hottakes are not so helpful, and suffer from the same bias as a simple stat like SB might - that athleticism = good defense.

though it's why I appreciate our milb observers here on da box - you guys see these kids day in day out so i love hearing your defensive impressions.

Nigel - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#342505) #

Interesting discussion guys. My view on this is that seeming a player for one or two games may let you form an impression of their althleticism but not their defence. Seeing a player for 6-8 games allows you form an impression of their defence. However, it's an impression only and the more you see them the more info you get. Things also can change over time. Maybe the player's defence was going through a slump or they had a nagging injury. For example, when Fields was in Vancouver I probably saw him play close to 10 games. He is obviously very athletic (except his arm) but I thought that he struggled to be even an average defender due to poor jumps, poor route running, missing cut off men etc. Of course my confidence in that impression isn't high as I'm not a scout and more data would aid in that. Also, if you told me today that he was an above average defender I wouldn't be surprised as his problems seemed correctable with coaching and experience.

bpoz - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#342506) #

4th OFs and utility IFs can become special.

Bautista became very good.

I jumped the gun and believed that Pompey was a regular rather than a 4th OF. He is still young enough to show what he has. 24 all this year.

Pillar and all the other OFs playing for the Jays are/were 4th OFs.

Seems only Pillar has good defense.

In 2015 Colabello played as a regular in LF with weak defense.

I believe our farm is loaded with decent/good 4th OFs.

Mike Green - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#342507) #

Yes, Nigel. Let's say you've seen Fields 8-10 times in Vancouver, in 2014, 8-10 times in Dunedin in 2015, 8-10 times in New Hampshire in 2016 and 5 times in Buffalo in 2017. A scout who had done that, and written a detailed report after each year, would produce a very useful compilation. I don't think that you really get that anywhere. In his particular case, you might note some improvement in route-running in 2017 (perhaps with the help of a few tips from Devon White).

Nigel - Friday, May 26 2017 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#342508) #

Agreed, that would be interesting data. I would also think that that sort of history would sort out which issues are fixable and which are not. I'll use another example. I saw Leblebjian play SS in Vancouver. Probably only 3-4 times as he played a lot of 3B as well. My impression was that he wouldn't be able to play SS at a major league caliber level due to range/quickness issues. But maybe through improved footwork/coaching and learning to throw on the run like Tulo he could overcome that. I don't know. I'd be much more surprised to hear that today he is an above average defender at SS (than Fields) because he is fighting an athleticism issue but youneverknow. Enough data on enough players might give some insight on what can be improved and what cannot.

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