Don't look now but Pillar has edged his BB% up noticeably. A BB% of even 7-8% would make him a passable long term option as a lead off hitter.

Justin Smoak is now hitting .274/.314/.496 (wRC+ 119). There is a good chance he falls back into the 90-100 wRC+ range, but I wonder if he's finding that extra gear both Anthopoulos and Atkins have talked about. So far this season he has been providing solid value for his $4.1m contract.

Pearce bringing the thunder. He's had a horrible start, but he's the type of guy that when he gets hot, he carries the offence. I hope he gets in the lineup in some way each game this series.

The Jays' marketing efforts this year may be cringey, but if they manage to cool-dad "The 6ix" into obsolescence, I'll give them a pass.

Have a day, Pearce. You too, Smoak.

our three best hitters:

Pillar 125wrc+
Smoak 119wrc+
Carrera 119wrc+

baseball is funny.

With a combined salary of $5.8m - pretty good

My sense on Smoak is he's guessing less late in the count and trying to cut down his swing. His walks and strikeouts are way down, and his bloop singles are way up. I'm no longer completely shocked to see him stay back on a two-strike curveball. The man had three different RBI hits in the same game today, and sure it was against weak pitching, but did you ever think you'd see that? Maybe there's a BABIP crash imminent, and it'll turn out that all-or-nothing Smoak was the best Smoak all along. What he's doing certainly is different and it's working so far and maybe it'll even earn him more early fastballs.

Cool-dad and the 6ix

I'm making dinner last night and my daughter calls out from the living room couch behind her laptop, "Dad, you should see this vegan wrap video".  I figure that it's one of those quick videos with sometimes visible hands concoting something out of a tortilla with some combination of hemp, quinoa, cashews, salsa, avocado, sprouts- we had a food truck that served something like that in front of Sidney Smith building at the U of T in 1977.  Wrong.  It was a British guy rapping with a full-on Johnny Rotten sneer about the pus and piss in cow's milk and such.  He was pretty good actually.

Carrera is doing well (with a good helping of the luck that Goins and Travis have not had), and he's been facing almost exclusively RHPs.   His career splits are no longer "extreme reverse" and it's likely that it was a sample size anomaly.  In any event, he is a serviceable outfielder and with this lineup ought to be playing regularly. 

So far, the Jays front office seems to have been brilliantly astute in predicting the good seasons from Smoak and Carrera, despite all the conventional wisdom about them. Shapiro and Atkins saw something in those two players that most of us didn't see.  Unfortunately the front office has -- so far -- been wrong about Bautista and Pearce.  Of course both are showing signs of turning it around now, but their season numbers are still very poor.  Again it shows the difficulty in predicting future performance from past performance.  We all would have expected Bautista and Pearce and Travis to have good seasons, while Smoak and Carrera would struggle.  Hasn't happened so far.

The major league leaders in zone-contact this year are: Joe Mauer, Daniel Murphy, Jorge Polanco, Justin Smoak, Melky Cabrera, and Dustin Pedroia.  If Smoak is in the top 10 in zone-contact at the end of the year, he'll have the best year of his career. 

The elevation angles on his HRs are considerably down from 2015. It looks like he may have made a significant mechanical adjustment which allows him to make more contact with off-speed stuff.  Whether it will hold for the season is a questionable proposition- but it's a lot better than BABIP luck propelling a hot start. 

Not to belabour the tedious old issue of Gibbons and his bullpen habits, but I thought last night was a good example of how Gibbons does NOT necessarily go into lockdown mode when the team has a multi-run lead.

With a four-run lead in the 7th inning against an injury-riddled team, he chose Aaron Loup, not the best reliever on the team, but not the worst either. A middle-of-the-pack reliever to protect a lead that was fairly comfortable but still somewhat risky.

Then, with a five-run lead in the 8th inning, he chose Jason Grilli, one of his worst-performing relievers this year. It was a nice symbolic gesture to Grilli to give him a late-inning appearance, in deference to his supposed (former) high-leverage role with the team. In reality, Gibbons was able to give some work to Grilli because of the five-run lead.

And finally, with a five-run lead in the 9th inning, he went with the lowest man on the totem pole, his most marginal reliever, Leonel Campos, who is likely to be optioned down on Sunday when Aaron Sanchez is activated.

So he used three of his most expendable relievers, while also keeping his better relievers available in case of a bullpen meltdown. It worked well.

Last night's bullpen usage was good.  May they have more large leads to protect so we can debate bullpen usage rather than how bad the club is...

I hesitate to put Smoak and Carrera in the same category. Carrera is a league minimum player. No salary or contract committment. He was always a good option.

Smoak we'll see. after a hot start he was once again a 1B that was a below league average hitter coming into last night's game. After a huge game his numbers look good again but I'm not betting on it lasting.

My cousin in law is one of the guys in charge of the jays tv marketing campaigns. I have studiously ignored bringing it up in conversation this year.

"Last night's bullpen usage was good."

I find people think the bullpen usage is better after a win than a loss.

The manager is smarter after they win than after they lose.

Was Grilli warming up when it was 6-2? I was happy when Smoak hit that solo HR and made it a 7-2 game because it meant Gibby would stay away from Smith and Osuna who had pitched in 4 of the last 6 days. That helps today, when you have Biagini limited to 75 pitches or so.

Loup seems to be ahead of Howell as the go-to lefty, for now. He's been effective this year, but it would be nice to see him put away some hitters quickly - his appearances always seem to be drawn out, even when successful.

correct, pubster.

grilli wasn't all that far away from blowing it, too.

For those of us from out-of-market, who watch online and skip commercials.. What is this 6ix thing? You don't have to summarize an offensive / lame ad, but a brand/keyword to look for?

"What is this 6ix thing?"

Apparently Drake and his buddy coined it as a nickname for Toronto.

“Yes, our area code is 416,” Drake said, laughing. “We were debating on The Four, but I went tail-end on them and went 6. And at one point Toronto was broken up into six areas (Old Toronto, Scarborough, East York, North York, Etobicoke and York), so it’s all clicking man.”

"....I was happy when Smoak hit that solo HR and made it a 7-2 game because it meant Gibby would stay away from Smith and Osuna...."

Okay, so now you're bashing Gibbons for the things that he did NOT actually do, but the things that you predict that he MIGHT have done, based on your own assumptions.  BY that yardstick, we can always criticize any manager -- it's easy to fantasize about an imaginary action and then criticize the manager on the basis of that imaginary action.

Is there actually any evidence that he would have used Smith and Osuna in a 6-2 game?  If there was evidence, please provide.  Otherwise I'd prefer to stick to the facts, which is that Gibbons did NOT use Smith or Osuna and there's no indication that he was on the verge of doing so.

Seriously CF?! I've been Gibby's greatest defender around these parts, and I can pretty much always understand the thinking behind his moves when he's constantly being criticized.

But yes, there's evidence behind my observation during the game. Gibbons may have used Smith and Osuna in a 4 run game, considering that Smith has been used in the 8th the last two times the Jays have had a 4 run lead (both in the last week), and Osuna closed the only 4 run lead the Jays had all season.

If Smoak's HR wasn't needed to keep Smith & Osuna out of the game, all the better. There's a reason I started my post by asking if Grilli was warming up 6-2 as well.

I did not realize that "Are you experienced" was released 50 years ago today.  If you remember, you are.

Seeing as it ought to be a public holiday and the club is winning, it's a good night to see a game.

Another recording anniversary - Exile on Main Street was released 45 years ago today.

Some lady tried to throw Brett Cecil off his game in Miami. We'll keep you abreast of any other developments.

I did not realize that "Are you experienced" was released 50 years ago today.

That's in the UK, of course - the North American release didn't come until August - and like all UK albums back in the day, it doesn't include his singles. So the original UK album had no "Purple Haze,", no "Wind Cries Mary," no "Hey Joe." They were all added to the North American version of the record, with "Red House", "Can You See Me" and "Remember" cut to make room.

Some lady tried to throw Brett Cecil off his game in Miami

Deadspin has gif-age of the relevant St. Louis feed, for the investigative sorts out there.

I was a little young to get the whole history at the time, so I checked.  In the UK, they released "The Wind Cries Mary" as the A side of a single and it was a pop hit.  In the US, "The Wind Cries Mary" was the B side of "Purple Haze". Similarly "Hey Joe" was the B side of Foxy Lady in the US.  I guess if you were in America, it paid to turn over the 45 and give it a spin from time to time!  I do remember doing that myself as a sprout, but not with Hendrix singles. 

I hadn't realized that the Blue Jays are carrying a nine-man pen.  It's a bit of an unusual situation with Biagini working his way into a starting role, and the question marks around Sanchez and Bolsinger.  If Sanchez can throw 5 or 6 innings on Sunday, I would hope that they would make a move or two to get more balance.

It's even more unusual considering the team's starting DH basically can't run or field (if that's what you want to call what he normally is able to do), so they're rolling with a bench of the backup C and Coghlan.

Coghlan probably has until Wednesday (Tulo's hopeful return date) to show he has some value, because at this point it's pretty hard to see. They'd be better off with a LH OF with some speed and D if they went back to a 4 man bench.

When you have a fetish for carrying 8 who's going to notice an extra body or two?

Although Buck and Pat called the last two pitches to Cruz sinking FBs they were actually two great CH. If Biagini can throw that pitch with greater consistency he could be a good starter.

Pearce's catch was high WPA. The club is playing well...

I was a little young to get the whole history at the time

So was I!

1967 was something of a turning point, in that it's the year the original releases of albums by by UK based acts would be duplicated in North America, beginning with Sgt Pepper in June. The Stones released two albums that year and while January's "Between the Buttons" exists in a UK and US version, December's "Their Satanic Majesties Request" is the same, and equally silly, everywhere. Same with "The Who Sell Out" and the second Hendrix album.

But they all persisted in making singles that they then left off the ensuing album - "Hey Jude", "Magic Bus", "Jumpin' Jack Flash".

The other day I mentioned that things could get interesting if the team gets its injured players back and it manages to stay mostly healthy. Add a healthy and productive Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Martin, Sanchez, and Happ to the existing group and you have a pretty good, and potentially great, roster.

For one thing, a starting 6ix of Sanchez/Stroman/Estrada/Happ/Biagini/Liriano would be excellent quality and depth in the rotation.

Thumbs up on the decision to leave in Tepera for the start of the eighth!

What is Osuna doing in this game?

What is Osuna doing in this game?

I don't know, but I do like Biagini in the post-game interview role.

Things are starting to look the way I envisioned. A good defensive backup catcher helps the bullpen settle down. Biagini is turning into the solid starter he profiled as. Tepera and Barnes bring their AAA experience to any innings. Barney keeps playing small ball like he can.

Kudo to Goins for what he's doing at the plate. It was fun to see Servais bring the lefty to face him.
2 run bomb from Bautista wasn't half bad either.

I think Osuna needed the work. Do we know who's starting for Seattle tomorrow?

Osuna has pitched in 6 of the last 9 games (10 days). He definitely did not need the work. The 9th was a perfect time for Howell just like the 8th last night was a perfect time for Grilli. If Sat and Sun are high leverage 9th innings for the Jays everyone will worry about Osuna being overworked but forget about the use of Osuna tonight; it is the litany of small decisions like tonight that leave Gibbons with the 1 run record he has.

None of this is to take away from the great overall work from the pen tonight and recently.

No doubt the Jays pitchers are happy they've got Maile. And it beats being sleepless in Seattle.

Sorry 6 of the last 10 games

No doubt the the Jays pitchers are happy they've got Maile. And it beats being sleepless in Seattle. There's no crying in baseball, greenfrog.

Pillar and Carrera each had a fine game at the top of the order. The stolen bases were a welcome addition to the offence. It wasn't close in either case.

team looks sharp.

biagini looks pretty great. agree with nigel that his changeup is the key to him being an SP. that's the 3rd pitch that might play.

as for osuna, i think it's clear by now that 4 runs is a save situation for gibbons. just have to live with it I think.

and yeah greenfrog it's funny - maile is just as ugly as thole at the plate but it seems to much easier to watch when you can easily see how good he is behind the plate. you're right the pitchers must love throwing to him.

Hanks for the coaching advice, Four Seamer.

Pat and Buck were talking about Biagini's 2 seam sinker. PITCHf/s says he throws a 4 seamer, a cutter, a curve, a slider and a change up. We're seeing fewer sliders and more change ups this year, but the real key is that the fastball sits around 93 and he commands it all over the plate. Btw, the ump had a very conservative strike zone and Biagini missed on a large number of borderline calls, yet I don't remember any walks.

"yet I don't remember any walks."

Not many of us would remember Biagini walking a batter. Hasn't done it in his last 13 appearances.

I'll admit I've erred on the conservative side when it comes to Biagini being stretched out. I mean, why mess with success? He's been valuable to the Jays in high leverage situations, and as a durable multi inming guy. But after seeing him on the mound as a starter, there's no question he can start. Should he continue to blossom, it might be plausihble that he Wally Pip's Liriano, given the latters experience in the pen last year, and the club's need for a lefty in the pen.

The Mariners have designed Jean Machi for assignment and recalled Ryan Weber whom they grabbed off waivers from Atlanta last fall to make the start against Stroman. Weber has mostly pitched as a reliever in the majors but is 2-0 with a 0.85 ERA in 5 starts for AAA Tacoma. 4 BB and 19 K in 31.2 innings...

morales says he may play today and all i can think is that i'm not sure how eager i am to yank pearce or carrera out of the lineup for him.

Carrera seems better than Jose in RF, because he gets to balls Jose can't. Carrera doesn't actually catch those balls, but he gets to them.

I'm really not sure what Coghlan has done to warrant his current regular playing time

I will run the risk that Kramer did when he refused to wear an AIDS ribbon, despite participating in an AIDS walk.

Too much pink! It's a visual assault.

It's the red and white uniforms that I don't particularly like. It's the Blue Jays so they should wear blue. Maybe once a season on Canada day is okay for the red, but otherwise its a down-vote from me.

Discussion Question: which start was better - today or stroman's last start?

Do not like the decision to bring Grilli into a tie game. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm glad gibby doesn't let grilli face lefties anymore....but i'm not sure we can afford to keep trotting him out there at all.

Today's was better. His last start was luckier. Kept the ball in the park in both.

kevin pillar, man.

Great throw by Maile. A good catcher is so important.

Classic double steal like in Little Leagues. Great baseball for all the Canadian baseball mothers out there.

Osuna again.

and rightly so.

Really uglyone? A five run lead? 7th appearance in the last 11 games. Between last night and tonight now Osuna will not be available tomorrow.

Osuna was already warmed up, so a few pitches more or a few pitches less is no big deal.
Today was a save situation. Maybe he needs a break tomorrow. Pen is huge right now anyway.

tying run at the plate. save situation. every other reliever being used just as much as osuna late....

....yeah, i wanted osuna in there as soon as i saw that leadoff double.

Osuna threw only 6 pitches; all strikes.

Maile was not such a bad hitter in low A, high A and AA. Wonder if there might be more there than what we've see so far. He certainly looks great defensively.

tying run due up i mean.

tying run due up i mean.

Nope. The tying run was still in the dugout, not even on-deck yet. With a 5-run lead and two on base, it would have taken 3 straight home runs to tie the game.

Fun fact: Luke Maile now has the same number of stolen bases as hits (1 each).

With his 170 OPS, Maile is certainly straining the old chestnut of backup catchers only having to provide good defense.

Which brings to mind a strange form of trivia. What is the poorest somebody has hit and still managed to be replacement level or better?

Per BBRef WAR, checking on some names that come to mind:

• Adam Everett pulled it off with OPS+'s of 61 and 62.
• Jarod Dyson, whom we saw today, managed to do it with a 51.
• Jim Sundberg, the catcher, did it with a 48.
• Mark Belanger did it with a 36.
• How low can we go? Is Ryan Goins our winner in 2014? 188/209/271, OPS+ 35.

Surely the bar is even lower yet. Who am I missing?

Maile's OPS per level:
-A - 771
A - 752
AA - 728
His hitting took a nose dive at AAA.

Wonder if the Jays would consider a tandem of Martin and Lopez while Maile concentrated on hitting in AAA? Jays appear to be rich with catchers.

Campos walked the second batter on 4 pitches, none of them close to the strike zone.
Once you warm up a reliever, might as well use him, especially if it's for 10 pitches or less.

The Mariners have brought a lot of AAA pitching and a tired bullpen to Toronto. That hasn't help Maile much.
As long as he plays good defense it doesn't matter how he hits.

Lost in this is Mike Ohlman. He only got 3 AB against a dominating Carrasco. Unlike Maile, he's out of options.
They could keep Ohlman as the backup and send down Maile back to AAA.

Same deal with Bolsinger. He's got another start and then would have to be put on waivers.
Once Liriano comes back they'll have to decide if they keep Bolsinger and send down Loup or Barnes.

At least sending Campos down tomorrow is an easy move.

With his 170 OPS, Maile is certainly straining the old chestnut of backup catchers only having to provide good defense.

They're 6-2 in Maile starts. I don't know what a chestnut literally is so I cannot massage the metaphor, but I think he was the sharpest pickup of the offseason, and it might not be particularly close. He's only struck out 4 times in 30 PA against 2 walks and it's not like he's been up there just trying to meekly make contact.

It was not good for Osuna to pitch in both last night's game and today's game.  I really didn't understand the decision in last night's game.  Having stuck with Tepera in the 8th with a 4-0 lead with the 2-3-4 hitters coming up, I would have gone with Campos in the 9th.   Osuna has now had 3 appearances with a lead of 4 runs or more in the ninth of his total 15- that's OK if the club is running up the score a lot, but that hasn't been the case with this club. 

I don't think there is any chance they would keep Ohlman over Maile. If he is claimed, so be it. He is simply not a major league receiver who has a triple a bat. He can't help the Jays and it was never expected that he would. Maile, though, has been an excellent receiver which is what counts the most for a catcher.

Neil Ramirez has cleared waivers and accepted an outright to Buffalo.

I am not going to post again on this topic because, as someone posted, I just have to live with how Gibbons uses his pen. But, as my final point on this, and this is a serious question (genuinely no snark) how will those who agree with Gibbons' decisions to use him yesterday and today feel if Osuna can't be used tomorrow and the team blows a 2-1 lead in the 9th?

Maile was claimed off waivers from TB April 6th, so not in the offseason.  Not sure what type of transaction you are talking about Alex, but Joe Smith and Dominic Leone have both been more valuable low-cost acquisitions.

We signed / claimed a fair amount of catching depth, and Maile was in the right place at the right time.  He looks strong defensively, but I can't see him as the best of our AAAA options if he can't hit whatsoever.  1 for 27?  8 for 41 in AAA?

Not only is he 1 for 27, the hit really should have been ruled an error. You could say he's been lucky. As the sample size increases, the official scoring errors will even out, and his slash line will converge toward his true talent level of .000/.070/.000.

I suspect Gibbons feels a 4 run lead in the 9th isn't safe anymore unless Osuna is in. Seems a bad statement on the rest of the pen if that is the case. However, in the end, a win is a win is a win. If it means your closer won't be available in a potential 1 run game the next day you can't worry too much about it.

Also remember Osuna has blown 3 saves this year. First on 3 days rest, second was on 4 days rest, third on 1 days rest. On 0 days rest (3 times) he has pitched 3 innings allowing 3 hits, 1 run(earned), 0 walks 4 K's and has 2 saves in that situation. 23 of those in 2016 with runs scored in just 4 of them - 2 were blown saves one of which the Jays won anyways, 15 times he got a save.

I can easily see why Gibbons wouldn't worry about zero days rest for Osuna.

i'm not so worried about osuna because with barnes getting the day off i'm fine with him getting a save opportunity tommorrow if need be. hell, osuna going a 3rd day won't bug me either.

and i gain more and more respect for catcher defense all the time. martin's influence on our pitching staff can't be underestimated I don't think, and maile wears a similar cut of jib.the biggest annoyance with Thole's limp bat was that he stunk defensively too.

Seems to me Scoscia was right all along.

".... I just have to live with how Gibbons uses his pen...."

He has actually been masterful in how he uses his pen.  At the start of the season, he was saddled with an extraordinarily difficult situation: an injured Osuna and two unreliable late-inning relievers (Grilli and Howell).  He has suffered an imploding rotation, starters who fail to get past the first or second inning, multiple injuries to key pitchers, several extra-inning games, and the need to shift his second-best reliever to the rotation.  Despite this heavy workload, his bullpen is now one of the best-performing bullpens in the entire league.   And despite crucial injuries to Donaldson, Tulo, Martin and others, and the disastrous April performances of Bautista and Travis, the Jays are now within 3.5 games of a wild card slot. (Two weeks ago they were 5.5 games out.)  Yet people still find ways to quibble.  If it's not the "excessive workload of Biagini" (a concern that has now disappeared), it's the "excessive use of Osuna" (who has actually become much stronger when he's used more regularly, which suggests that he needs a heavy workload to thrive).

I mean, I know it's the inherent nature of a fan website to hunt for things to complain about, but people seem to be imagining negative scenarios because they can't find anything concrete to complain about.  I really don't think Osuna's six pitches yesterday will prevent him from pitching today if the Jays need him.  More importantly, there are seven other relievers in the bullpen, most of whom have pitched very well lately.  Find something else to worry about, guys.

While Biagini has been great as a starter, he is missed in the bullpen although they have coped so far. When all the injured starters come back does he return there, or if he continues to look good does someone else? Liriano is the only candidate really.
Also, over a month into the season a few interesting trends have developed in the standings. Boston is still around .500 even after adding Chris Sale. Minnesota is leading the AL Central despite being a favorite to finish last. Houston is unsurprisingly really good in the AL West, while in the NL East, Washington has no competition and should coast to first. The Cubs in the Central are at .500 and might be fighting the championship hangover, while the Giants in the West are really scuffling. I know this is not what is being discussed, but there always seems to be some unexpected vs. expected trends in the standings.

Also the Mets are 16-19 with Thor, D'Arnaud, Lugo, Cespedes and of course Wright on the shelf.
Interestingly, Jay Bruce is worth 0.7 WAR while Granderson is an awful -1.0 WAR.

Suddenly our record looks like we had a mediocre start instead of a godawful one. And that's while missing several of our best players. We need them back of course, but I'm optimistic that this team can go on a run, especially with Donaldson and the starters back.

Looks like Bautista's finally getting better as well. Too early to say if he's still an elite offensive player, but his recent streak I think proves that he's at least able to contribute.

Perhaps facing this Seattle team missing 4/5th of their rotation is the best luck the Jays have had this season.

Much that is being said now on da Box is correct.

Horrible start to the season as discussed with many 1 and 2 run losses. Many unexpected good and bad performances. And of course injuries.

I don't know what is going on. I could never have predicted this. But we can analyze this, as I just pointed out the reasons for the losing. But now we are on a decent to good winning streak. The injuries are still there. The performances of the players is better as is the record in close games.

I cannot guess the future results. But based on the current standings Houston, NYY and Baltimore have 3 of the 5 playoff spots locked up if they continue to win at their current pace. So 1 playoff spot currently available.

Every year something unexpected happens.

This year the unexpected could be Minnesota being buyers at the deadline. And maybe Seattle making trades.

I always try to remind myself never to draw any conclusions - even tentative early impressions - until the calendar turns to June. But boy is it tough.

the recent play is encouraging but that can stop in a heartbeat.

i'll wait 2 more weeks until making any judgements about the players or the team....and even then, they'll just be early impressions.

We've seen Baltimore and the Yankees have hot months but also struggle for long stretches too.
They both have shaky rotations.

Texas is on a 5 game winning streak. 2 wins by 1 run. For the year they are 4W to 7L in 1 run games, and a loss and win in 2 run games.

So they are still behind in the 1 run games.

I have a bad feeling someone will get into the playoffs with 1 run wins being the deciding factor.

Like you say uglyone, it is too early for conclusions.
In close games the NYY are quite neutral. Baltimore on the other hand is being favored.

An error in previous report--Neil Ramirez has rejected outright to Buffalo to become FA. Chris Smith began rehab assignment in Dunedin yesterday.

See, Gibby is a genius and knew there would be no need for Osuna today.

kevin pillar, man.

and hey, no need for a closer today :)

Just everyone figured, Pillar and Smoak, and the bullpen, continue to carry the team. First 4 game sweep of Seattle ever apparently?

Well, this is getting kind of fun. Let's just get this team healthy.

Another one-run victory for Gibbons and the Jays. And he only needed 2 of his 8 available relievers to lock it down.

Now that Biagini is in the rotation, it's great to have Tepera and Barnes both available as relievers who can provide multiple strong innings. Tepera was again impressive today. Of his 16 appearances this year, he's had a couple of bad outings, but 13 have been stellar. With the emergence of Tepera and Barnes, and with the continued strong performances from Smith and Osuna and Loup, the Jays can afford to shift Grilli and Howell into low-leverage mop-up roles -- a nice luxury to have.

Smoak raised his wRC+ to 122, which makes him the 3rd best hitting qualified 1st baseman in the AL, behind only Yonder Alonzo and Logan Morrison.

Mind you, AL 1B have only averaged a 105 wRC+, compared to the NL average of 130.

Is that game in St-Louis in which Tepera gave up a bloop single and Gibby intentionally walk 2 to load the base before removing Tepera, one of those 2 bad starts? I mean, 3 earned runs on 3 pitches is a bad day, but it's not a bad outing.

It's same reason why Smoak isn't a good defensive 1B. Most teams put a glove before a bat at first base these days.

Curious to see what they'll do for Pearce now. I guess Coghlan can play an half-decent outfield.

Good point about Tepera's outing in St. Louis, scottt. Hard to blame him for that one, even though it looked statistically bad. So Tepera's only really bad outing this season was his Baltimore game on April 16 (five batters faced, only one batter retired, gave up a HR and two other hits and a walk). Since then, he has been brilliant.

My favourite bullpen statistic: the Jays bullpen has pitched more innings than any other bullpen in the American League this month, and despite that heavy workload, it has posted a superb 2.47 ERA this month. (Those numbers were accurate as of the 6th inning today. The ERA is slightly higher now, but the essential point is still true: very heavy workload by the bullpen, yet excellent performance.)

"Most teams put a glove before a bat at first base these days."

No, they don't.

Last year's playoffs teams:

CLE 19-17
BOS 19-18
TEX 19-20
CHC 18-19
TOR 17-21
NYM 16-20
SFG 15-24

Jays thru 38gms

2017: 17-21
2016: 19-19
2015: 17-21

Woohoo! Jays no longer the worst of last years playoff teams. I was worried we were headed to another 12-24 ala 1989 but at 17-21 a 500 record is in sight now. Just 1 game out of 2nd last in the east, 2 1/2 behind Boston for 3rd. 6 1/2 behind NYY for first. 3 games out of the wild card (Cleveland).

Guess the year isn't over yet. Funny how much a winning streak can help.

Last year's playoff teams through May 14
Baltimore 23-12
Boston 23-14
Cleveland 17-16
Texas 21-16
Toronto 19-19

This year, if you said the Jays would be without Donaldson, Tulo, Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, and Martin for some or all the year, 17-21 isn't so bad.

I think the recent comeback to near-respectability overall shows why I've come to hate the early season "after bad start, Jays must play .600 baseball from now on to reach 90 wins" type of analysis. Sure, to have a very good, a team must play slightly above that level for extended periods. True, but a lot of that can be made up in a week. The Jays just can't have another extended slump. No problem, right?

I'm still pessimistic about playoff chances, since injury bugs tend to linger, the offense is currently Smoak and mirrors, and the bullpen can't pitch 4 great innings every game for long. But hey, at least it's possible to be disappointed again?

The win streak is encouraging, but the Jays aren't out of the woods yet.  The lineup is still weak, without the bats of Donaldson, Tulo, Martin and Pearce.  They've enjoyed some surprisingly good performances lately from Goins, Smoak, Carrera, Barney and Pillar, but inevitably there will be regression as some of those guys become over-exposed.  This lineup could easily get shut down by a good pitcher.  In the rotation, it's good to have Sanchez back, but there are still issues.  Bolsinger looked okay in his first start, but he remains a big question mark. 

To some extent, the Jays suffered bad luck in the early weeks of the season, and then they enjoyed good luck in the last couple of weeks. The bounces have tended to fall in their favor in recent weeks.  That could change at any moment.   The Jays are lucky to face a bad team for the next four games.  They have climbed back within 3 games of a Wild Card spot, but under-performing rivals like Cleveland and Boston could go on a hot streak at any point soon.  The Jays need to stay within range and hope for a surge when Donaldson and the others return.

"....the offense is currently Smoak and mirrors...."

Good line, and a more felicitous way of expressing what I was trying to say in my post.

I should have gone with "built on a Pillar of Smoak and mirrors", but mixed metaphors with 2 puns might be taking it too far. And I forgot Pearce in the wounded list, did the Jays announce a move yet or is he OK?

Year after year we see certain teams beating the Jays when it should not happen. Like TB regularly having a winning record against the Jays and then getting the top draft pick.

The record speaks for itself. We have played 10 games against TB, so most of the games against them is done.
The Brewers are also beating us as they follow history.

not sure of this exactly but quickly scanning pillar's splits and i think this is getting close to being the best hitting stretch of his career, both in topline numbers and underlying ones.

May wrc+

Pearce 185 (33pa)
Carrera 157 (36pa)
Pillar 153 (59pa)
Morales 146 (39pa)
Smoak 125 (51pa)
Bautista 121 (56pa)
Barney 100 (33pa)
Goins 97 (49pa)
Travis 88 (43pa)
Maile -70 (30pa)

Martin 56 (17pa)
Coghlan 43 (19pa)
Ohlman -100 (3pa)


that's starting to look more like the yankees' April hitting.

Pearce left the game with "right calf tightness" and was scheduled to undergo an MRI. He's likely to miss some games. The only real question is whether he goes onto the DL or not.

Carrera can replace him short-term. But our experience is that Carrera tends to fade if he's playing every game. Gibbons has been careful to give him games off. With Pearce out, he'll have to play every game, unless they want to try Goins or Coghlan out there.

If Pearce goes to the DL, they'll probably promote Ceciliani, rather than Dwight Smith, because Ceciliani will spend most of his time on the bench.

While listing all the players who are due for regression, I could have mentioned one who might still improve: Luke Maile. With a BABIP of .038, he's bound to see some hits dropping at some point.

Devon Travis has quietly posted an .879 OPS over the past six games. He might be finally breaking out.

and if you're looking for a potential reason for that aside from the most likely explanation (i.e. random fluke).....apparently they told him to move back from the plate and he started hitting exactly then.

Yesterday Mike Trout became the youngest player EVER to have hit 150 home runs ( He has 179 ) and have stolen 150 bases. What a tremendous talent.

Ceciliani is likely the short term solution for the reason stated. Not sure if Dwight Smith will ever be a Blue Jay. Keep your eye on Roemon Fields. With his speed, he may have more to offer if he can hit at all and he is off to a fine start in Buffalo, recognizng the SSS.

Since the topic of getting into the AL playoffs is being discussed. I thought I would look at some teams that have good or OK record.
I was looking for a rotation ACE. I think all of the good records have it, at expected.

C Sale, D Bundy, E Santana and a few others. E Santana was unexpected by me.

The season is still too young but AWeb mentioned 90 wins. I would like 90 wins. I would like every 90 win team to make the playoffs, but in even numbers. 4,6 not 3 or 5 because that would cause confusion.

Possibly Aces pitching, extra innings, good and bad luck and very long nights. Possibly an Ace pitching in a late inning. C Sale.

Agreed China that Ceciliani is the most logical candidate, but the guy is off to a dreadful start offensively, and has been especially cold in his last ten games, 3 for 35 with nary a walk ... Maile-esque.

Harold Ramirez is the only other OF on the 40 man, and he's struggled as well, although he's improving lately, unlike Ceciliani.

Coghlan could handle the OF if they choose to cut bait on Ceciliani and promote someone not on the 40 man - perhaps Jason Leblebijian?

Thanks, PeterG, for mentioning Roemon Fields.  His hitting is questionable, but he provides a tremendous pinch-running and base-stealing threat, which might be what the Jays could use in a bench player.   Any reports on his defence?  I assume he could serve as a late-inning defensive replacement as well?

Probably they will not bring up anyone at present. I think that Coghlan would have been DFA to make room for Tulo but now if Pearce goes to DL, Tulo will simply take his roster spot and Coghlan will stay for now.

I think there is a good chance that one of Smith or Fields will be added to to the 40 man in September and I would give the edge to Fields presently but there is a lot of baseball between now and then. I also think that Ceciliani will likely be DFA when Pompey comes off the DL.

Smith is actually scuffling real bad right now, with a 45wrc+ over his last 15gms.

"people seem to be imagining negative scenarios because they can't find anything concrete to complain about."

The teams in last place. I think people can find things to complain about. Concrete things.

I found one non-Jays fan believer - David Schoefield in today's ESPN Real or Not segment:

"Huge four-game sweep for the Blue Jays over the Mariners, winning 3-2 Sunday on Kevin Pillar's walk-off homer against Edwin Diaz. They're not out of the woods yet, but they're 17-21 with a five-game winning streak, and I think they can back into the playoff picture with that rotation"

Jays have had a bit of a tough sked now that I look at it.

Vs. .550+ teams: 3-11
Vs. .450 - .550: 10-10
vs. -.450 teams: 4-0

and those .450 teams are Seattle...and they're at .447, only after we swept them.

So pretty much we have yet to face any weak teams.

That being said - .500 against the mediocre teams and 3-11 against the good ones isn't good enough, anyways.

There are many ways of looking at your analysis. BTW your analysis is accurate. I did one additional calculation....Houston is on pace to win 111 games.

Please don't get defensive because I really appreciate the work you do in your postings. Thank you for your efforts. So you/I/others probably want to bet against the 111 win season. I do anyway. Maybe 95-97 wins. I will bet against that also.

I did not search hard enough to replace the word "bet". I don't want to bet.

Pearce to DL. Campos recalled.

The 2 man bench is probably a 2 day thing until Tulo is back on Wednesday. Tulo is in the Dunedin lineup for tonights game.

Playing with a 2 man bench when Morales can't run is incredibly stupid.

JP Howell has thrown 17 pitches in May across 2 appearances, but naturally they choose another RP, a guy who couldn't be trusted two days ago to face another batter with 2 men on in the 9th inning of a 5 run game.

"....naturally they choose another RP, a guy who couldn't be trusted two days ago...."

Grilli and Howell can't be trusted either.  But the Jays are committed to paying $6-million to those two guys this season, so they are glued to the roster, regardless of performance.

At least Campos isn't costing much.

Here are all of the position players on the 40-man they could have called up: Alford, Ceciliani, Gurriel, Ramirez, or Urena.

Mike Bolsinger is starting tonight, so bullpen help might be more necessary than if, say, Marco Estrada were starting.

At least it automatically becomes a 3-man bench when they play NL games on Wednesday and Thursday! (Yes, the 14-man pitching staff is goofy.)

Well, better than a 15 man pitching staff. :)

i imagine campos is here for one game only.

The Jays will be getting an influx of position players over the next few days.  Tulo back on Wednesday or Thursday; Donaldson likely to return this weekend.  Martin also seems to be close; his 10 days on the DL will expire on Thursday and he is reportedly much better and shouldn't need any rehab games.  Pearce shouldn't be too long either.

As for the 9-man bullpen:  keep in mind that the Jays bullpen has already thrown more than 50 innings this month, one of the highest totals in the entire majors.  And the burden falls most heavily on four or five of them, since Grilli and Howell have been so unreliable.  And as already noted by others, there's a risk that Bolsinger might be good for just 4 or 5 innings today.  Several of the relievers have been worked fairly hard in the past few days, so an additional reliever will be useful.  A third man on the bench wouldn't be needed unless there are two injuries in the game.

I think consideration should soon be given to releasing Howell and giving his roster spot to someone Gibbons will actually use.

Howell could legitimately be on the bubble in the medium-term - $3 million isn't so much that you can't walk away from it.  We've already walked away from $2 million for Salty and Latos.  If Liriano comes back healthy, Biagini is back to the pen, along with Osuna, Smith and probably Loup as locks.  Grilli, Howell and Bolsinger are the fringy vets, but Barnes and Tepera are better bets to me, and possibly Leone - plus Chris Smith and other interesting candidates in Buffalo.  I don't see the team going with all three vets, regardless of options, unless they start producing.

Fields is interesting, but with our short bench - a given with three guys who are more DHs than position players and the org's commitment to a full pen to prevent overuse of the starters - I think we need someone who is more than a pinch runner, though the FO does seem to like Fields - he got an AFL gig in 2015, often a good sign. 

We could use an OF version of Darwin Barney - I guess that was supposed to be Zeke, who is surprising everyone - aside from the FO with their 'internal metrics' - as a starter. 

I see Fields as more of a possible roster player next season than this although he could be added in September if he has a good season.

I don't think they need another lefty outfielder. Gurriel would be the logical choice if he was ready.
He's 1 for 2 with a double at Dunedin, so maybe he's finally healthy?

I think those 2ab came like a month ago unfortunately.

I see Gurriel as a 3b or SS, not an OF though he could be utilized at several positions.

Howell has been pretty awful thus far. However, he's only faced 17 batters and has been reasonably successful the past 4 seasons. Little early to be talking about dumping him.

I've been paying more attention to Gibby's pen usage since the last discussion here, and the one thing I'm liking about his management this season is his willingness to let relievers work multiple innings.  Campos looked better the longer he pitched, and gave the pen some genuine relief.

That said, I feel for these guys on the Buffalo shuttle ... being on the 40 man pays okay, but it's a far cry from the MLB minimum.