I haven't read the 'big read' series before, but great story on Grube.  For those like me who love the underdog story, Grube's is a good one.  I don't see a path for him to the bigs here whatsoever, but man, I'm pulling for the guy.

Alford has struck out 8 times in the last 5 games, and his W/K for the season is down to 9/16.  That's still OK, but I am much less concerned about his power than this contact ability. 

Does anyone have anything on Jansen's abilities behind the plate?

everything i've read on him suggests he should have no problem sticking behind the plate, gets plaudits for his gamecalling and receiving, though isn't especially athletic, including his throwing arm.

"Alford has struck out 8 times in the last 5 games, and his W/K for the season is down to 9/16. That's still OK, but I am much less concerned about his power than this contact ability"

He was swinging out of his shoes last night, first pitch sliders in the dirt and he was taking huge swings. Looked so different to me than how he did even last week.

Thanks, ramone, for the first hand report.  The periodic struggles of Tellez and Alford with the strike zone early in the season give good reason for cautious step-by-step development patterns.

As much as I like Alford as a prospect, I wish he'd skipped college football and started his pro baseball career right away. Talented as he is, there's no substitute for quality coaching and consistent reps at a young age. He can still become a good major-league player, but he's doing it the hard way.

I am probably correct about this. I checked. NL farm team pitchers don't hit in the minors. I found this strange. Mainly because I think I am correct.

Farm systems are ranked and then fans discuss the validity of the ranking. But I don't think that 40 man rosters are ranked. I mean the part from #26-40. Which of course is always changing. Probably nobody cares.

I mention this because I have been thinking seriously about the Jay's 40 man roster after this season. Since Pentecost, McGuire and Jansen have been discussed recently. They all have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. If they are, but probably not all of them then we could start the season with 5 catchers on the 40 man roster. Those 3, Martin and another C as backup. Assuming everyone is still Jay's property.

The current 40 man has a lot of young prospects. Borucki, Urena, Alford, Gurriel, Pompey and H Ramirez. More slots are used up if you add Greene and Tellez.

There will also be several departures from the 40 man. I expect the Jays to be much younger next season regardless the 2017 outcome. As catching is a high injury risk position, I would try to keep all 3 although we cannot be sure Max remains at that position. I would like to see the pen full of homegrown Jays with no over the hill vets at all.

We certainly have enough interesting relievers in the org to dream on a homegrown bullpen, although I wonder how many of them will be able to graduate off the Buffalo shuttle - many of these guy's primary value is their remaining options.  I think Barnes and Tepera will earn their way off the shuttle this year, and perhaps Leone. 

For fans of the Jays new high-performance department, this is a great read:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/big-read-inside-toronto-blue-jays-high-performance-department/

There are plenty of other candidates for the pen next season: McFarland, Stilson, Mayza, Ramirez, Fernandez.It is far easier for pitchers to make the jump than hitters.

Thanks for the high performance link, jerjapan. Great read. The nutrition part was especially interesting - I recall a couple of posters here suggesting something very similar in the past.

Osuna-Biagini-Barnes-Loup-Tepera is a pretty good home grown chunk of a bullpen I think.

And I'll always hold out hope for Stilson. Mayza looks good too. Both have huge arms.

And I think Greene could be a great reliever as soon as next year. Reid-Foley and rios too...though i'd rather see them stay as SP for now.

If we need to raid Buffalo for another starter, I think we could see Rios move to AAA with possibly Zeuch to AA. It would be better if that does not happen for a couple of months, but injuries could force it sooner. Greene may well profile better as a reliever but as starters are much harder to find, I think the Jays would exhaust all starting possibilities with him before making that move. I can see a situation where no FA's are signed next off season, other than a few on minor league deals.

Yeah Hyperbole, I always wondered why diet wasn't a bigger issue with the development side ... particularly the minor leaguers who don't really have a ton of money in some cases .... interesting to read about just how large the department is.  We might just have an industry leading department on our hands ...

Ugly, why do you still like Loup?  He's out of options, no longer cheap and hasn't been good in a few years?

Ramirez is a fun darkhorse for the pen - it's always interesting to see a position player convert to pitching.  Jay Blue's minor league handbook (a good pickup if you are in the mood to support indie journalism) has him with a 94 mph fastball. 

I believe that Loup can still be optioned this season and next. He will be a FA after 2018. He has pitched better of late. He can however refuse an outright if taken off 40 man.

Glad to see the Jays focusing on the ways to improve the quality of player once he is here. Better nutrition, better psychology, stronger rehab, etc. These are all low hanging fruit that MLB has ignored far longer than it should've. I suspect we'll see more and more high fitness players and fewer David Wells types as time goes by.

Man, I clearly still don't understand options ... the bluebird banter option page has Loup having two remaining, so good call PeterG. 

Jerjepan, options can be confusing. 3 option years are allowed after a player is first placed on 40 man roster. Loup was originally added from NH and never optioned till last year, so that was option 1. Thus, 2 remaining. There will be some players out of options after this year eg: Dalton Pompey. If Jays added Dwight Smith to 40 man, he would then have 3 option years. That's why he likely won't be added during this season unless team plans on keeping him in majors for remainder of season.

Technically, if Loup stays on the team, he'll reach 5 years of service time and that last option won't matter.
He was at 4.040 in March.

An option is not the same as an outright.

why do I like Loup? well, because relief is always a small sample, and in small samples the fips are much better evidence of how a pitcher is doing than era.

and to demonstrate how small samples can be.....Loup has already pitcher almost as much this year (8.2ip, 1.04era) as he did all of last year (14.1ip, 5.02era). If last year was a bad year, then by the same reasoning this year has alrrady been a great one.

To look closer:

2yr: 23.0ip, 3.52era/3.87fip/3.83xfip (AAA: 19.2ip/1.83era, 0.98fip/1.57xfip)
4yr: 134.0ip, 3.63era/3.80fip/3.58xfip
6yr: 234.0ip, 3.15era/3.41fip/3.44xfip


Now he may never be the dominant guy he was to start his career but it looks to me like he's just a plain solid reliever, even if he's had a bad small sample ERA or two along the way.

I thought the pitching matchup looked really lopsided in the Yankees favor before the game started,now even more so after the first inning. I am not impressed by Latos at all. It looked like batting practice for New York and unless he somehow turns it around, I hope it's the last game for him in a Blue Jays uniform.

Sorry,I clicked on the wrong thread. Demote me to the minors!

Lane Thomas and Bo Bichette have three run home runs early tonight.

I'll sneak in an end of April monthly statistical prospect update.....using the stats i think are the most important at least.....


AAA

LF Smith (24): 86pa, 9.3bb%/15.1k%, .367bip/.338avg, .189iso, 164wrc+
1B Tellez (22): 84pa, 13.1bb%/23.8k%, .220bip/.194avg, .139iso, 80wrc+
CF Pompey (24): ---

Tellez off to his typical slow start (though not as slow as previous years) but babip is against him so far. I'm as surprised as anyone that Smith is on this list but i just couldn't come up with a reason why he wouldn't belong here with a thoroughly impressive line like that. Get well soon, Pompey.


AA

CF Alford (22): 86pa, 10.5bb%/18.6k%, .407bip/.338avg, .143iso, 155wrc+
C McGuire (22): 62pa, 12.9bb%/17.7k%, .231bip/.220avg, .160iso, 91wrc+
SS Urena (21): 90pa, 8.9bb%/22.2k%, .267bip/.215avg, .089iso, 64wrc+
LF Ramirez (22): 64pa, 3.1bb%/17.2k%, .229bip/.203avg, .136iso, 51wrc+

Alford's slown down a bit but still a thoroughly great line, if a bit babip-heavy. Solid start for McGuire with only babip keeping him down. Young Urena struggling but picking it up a bit this week. Ramirez having a surprisingly horrible start through and through.

RH Greene (22): 28.2ip, 22.0k%/12.2bb%, .263bip, 4.08era/2.91fip
RH Rios (22): 28.1ip, 15.7k%/6.6bb%, .304bip, 1.91era/3.54fip
RH R-Foley (21): 14.1ip, 20.0k%/14.7bb%, .370bip, 5.65era/5.35fip
RH Harris (23): 20.2ip, 21.1k%/7.8bb%, .322bip, 6.53era/5.44fip

Greene having a nice bounceback start to the year. Rios same old steady but not as good as that era makes it look. A bit of a disaster start by SRF....not much redeeming in that line. Harris probably shouldn't be on this list at all.


A+

SS Gurriel (23): 2pa, 0.0bb%/0.0k%, .500bip/.500avg, .500iso, 336wrc+
C Jansen (22): 92pa, 3.3bb%/8.7k%, .421bip/.407avg, .128iso, 179wrc+
1B Pentecost (24): 72pa, 4.2b%/16.7k%, .314bip/.324avg, .294iso, 170wrc+
CF Thomas (21): 100pa, 11.0b%/22.0k%, .359bip/.287avg, .230iso, 149wrc+
2B Vicuna (19): 31pa, 3.2b%/25.8k%, .429bip/.310avg, .103iso, 120wrc+
2B Biggio (22): 100pa, 12.0b%/24.0k%, .371bip/.279avg, .093iso, 114wrc+

Pentecost just killing it....though at 24 he should be. Jansen almost as impressive but a little too babipy for my tastes so far. Lane Thomas seems to be having a breakout year - that is a thoroughly "Legit Prospect" batting line from top to bottom. I don’t know why this kid Vicuna is up here but i like the results. Biggio holding his own but ideally we'd see more from a 22yr old in A+.

RH Zeuch (21): 22.0ip, 20.4k%/6.5b%, .254bip, 2.05era/2.73fip
LH Borucki (23): 19.1ip, 23.0k%/8.1b%, .379bip, 6.52era/3.34fip
LH Perdomo (23): 25.2ip, 16.4k%/9.5b%, .325bip, 3.86era/6.34fip

Excellent stuff from Zeuch after skipping a level, newr dominance at an age appropriate level makes him an exciting prospect now. Mixed bag from the other 2 here who are barely prospects anymore.


A

SS Bichette (19): 82pa, 13.4b%/17.1k%, .444bip/.371avg, .200iso, 197wrc+
3B Guerrero (18): 85pa, 16.5b%/12.9k%, .375bip/.348avg, .217iso, 192wrc+
CF Woodman (22): 93pa, 5.4b%/39.8k%, .479bip/.291avg, .128iso, 113wrc+
CF Palacios (21): 60pa, 11.7b%/21.7k%, .237bip/.180avg, .080iso, 71wrc+

Vladdy's line at his age is the stuff dreams are made of. Bichette not all that far behind. Woodman with a bizarre line so far which is probably bad but we'll see. Dissapointingly awful start from Palacios.

RH Maese (20): 28.0ip, 15.4k%/7.7bb%, .380iso, 5.79era/3.14fip
RH Encina (22): 17.1ip, 22.1k%/11.7b%, .280bip, 0.00era/3.27fip

Maese's ERA looks ugly but all the underlying numbers look good. Encina i've decided to keep an eye on.

And Guerrero Jr. is back in the lineup.  Good.

Ryan Borucki strikes out 8 tonight in just under 4 innings.

Well Ugly, Loup pitched a bunch more than that in 2016 ... it's just that he sucked enough to do it in the minors.  And he sucked the year before that. 

Not sure when you consider a sample size large enough, but Loup was mediocre in 2016, 2015, and arguably 2014. 

eh, he had 50 innings of inflated era with good underlying numbers (and AAA dominance). He projected to pitch well this year and he is and it's no big surprise.

He doesn't have good underlying numbers this year.  Projected or not, he's struggled for a while.  Some guys do look good in AAA, but there are plenty of relievers that are good for a season or two, and then the league figures them out 

The org doesn't think much of him, given his reducing role. 

2017: 3.11fip, 3.88xfip, 4.25siera
2016: 4.33fip, 3.80xfip, 3.32siera
2015: 3.72fip, 2.89xfip, 2.43siera
2014: 3.83fip, 3.92xfip, 3.65siera
2013: 3.32fip, 3.31xfip, 2.74siera
2012: 1.92fip, 3.12xfip, 2.85siera

the underlying numbers are good, as they most always have been.

Borucki had a perfect game going after 3 2/3 but then was taken out due to a pitch limit of only 45 (he's recently back from a short DL stint). Struck out the first 7 batters of the game. I heard Shapiro speak glowingly about him a couple of months ago, not just his physical tools, but his dedication, hard work, intelligence, etc., so certainly the team still thinks of him as a very good prospect, as do I. He's had a couple of somewhat rough outings this year which may have been related to the injury situation, but his K:BB ratio is very good at 4:1 for the year. He just turned 23 a month ago. I think he's a top 20 Jays prospect. Harold Ramirez' stats don't fit the rest of his career so far, and should turn around soon, he's a career .300 hitter. Perhaps he was disappointed at repeating AA to start the season after hitting over .300 there last year. You can't discount the psychological factors that can influence a poor start.

I saw Borucki once in Vancouver between elbow injuries number 1and 2. He was throwing 89-91 with an inconsistent but occasional plus change. Sort of a left handed Marcum (he is more Marcum than Estrada in that he works his FB down in the zone and on the corners rather than pitching up with his FB). That was a while ago and one arm injury ago. If his stuff is still roughly the same then he will never appear on a BA top 20 prospects list but guys like him (particularly left handers) occasionally swim all the way upstream. Staying healthy is key #1. I like him more than Jon Harris.

Ugly, If you like Geno Encina as an under the radar guy, perhaps you should also take a look at Ryan Cook?

Thanks Nigel. The Vancoucer Canadians had a few Aces. J Nicolino, Taylor Cole, T Robson.

I was very high on Nicolino and also Borucki. Nicolino stayed healthy, but not Borucki. In your observations how do they compare.

Robson is the one that I have high hopes for. I am hoping that he can get a lot of innings and develop as a bull pen arm. What was you opinion of him?

They all seem to now be bull pen arms. Even Osuna.

thanks for the heads up Peter but Cook looks to me a fringe too far right now.

Encina is as fringe as I can go.

Remembering I only saw Borucki once (I did see Nicolino twice), FB were similar; Nicolino's control and consistency on all his pitches were much better; Nicolino's breaking ball was much better; when he threw it well, the swing and miss factor on Borucki's change was better than any of Nicolino's offerings.

Tentative re-rankigs:

1.Guerrero
2.Alford
3.Bichette
4.Tellez
5.Reid-Foley
6.Urena
7.Zeuch
8.Maese
9.Gurriel
----------
10.Greene
11.McGuire
12.Thomas
13.Rios
14.Jansen
15.Pentecost
16.Ramirez
------------
17.Vicuna
18.Palacios
19.Smith
20.Biggio
21.Woodman
22.Harris
23.Borucki
24.Perdomo
25.Encina

Thanks Nigel.

If Bo Bichette is your 3rd best prospect, you are in great shape.  He's dominating in the Midwest League while playing shortstop at age 19, after dominating Rookie ball at age 18.  From a statistical perspective, he's arguably a Grade A prospect at this point.  John Sickels described his hitting mechanics in January as "unconventional".  The mechanics "raise questions" about his projection at higher levels.  In the video that I have seen, the swing is a bit unusual but he does get bat to ball quickly and well.  Anybody seen him hit regularly in Lansing yet?  If so, some impressions would be helpful.

I should probably squeeze bradley jones and edward olivares in there somewhere. Probably near the top of that last cutoff.

I think Maese is too high and Pentecost is too low.

At this point I think Bradly Jones is starting to impress me enough to be a top 10 prospect. He has legitimate power and his strikeout rate is going down.

Edward Olivares is starting to look like a borderline top 20 guy too, he's looking like a C+/C level prospect.

Maese has been hittable this year, and Pentacost should jump if he can handle catching, so I agree with you Shoeless.  Mike Green is right too, Bichette at third in the rankings is a good sign ... he's been the best story of the minors thus far IMO, outside of Vlad. 

Jones needs to keep this up a bit longer for me to say top 10, given his draft position, but he's certainly in consideration for the top 20.  Nice to see the system rebounding so quickly - certainly the position players look much better than I would have hoped two months ago.

" If his stuff is still roughly the same then he will never appear on a BA top 20 prospects list but guys like him (particularly left handers) occasionally swim all the way upstream. Staying healthy is key #1. I like him more than Jon Harris."

they had him #16 pre-season