A light.

Donaldson and Tulo are heading to Florida.  I imagine that they'll begin their rehab stints in Dunedin. 

They just never miss Chris Archer, do they?

They just never miss Chris Archer, do they?

They do when they are swinging.

Normally, the backup catcher is a glove first player. It's hard to hit well when you only play once or twice a week and defense is more dependable. And cheaper. There's room on a bench for a good bat and a good base runner, they Jays opted to carry 2 glove first middle infielders instead.

Maile is probably better than Salty in the long run, but the change is unlikely to make a huge difference in the short term. Maile has never caught any of the Blue Jays pitchers he will catch.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train?

It could be the light on the train.

I can tell you that the Jays are still ahead of the blistering pace set by the legendary 1962 Mets, who were 5-17 at this juncture, having begun their existence by losing the first 9 games they played. But Casey's boys were about to get hot (they'd actually win 7 of their next 9) and improve to 12-19.

Misery loves company.

The 8-13 Mets have just placed Cespedes on the DL for a hamstring injury and the 10-13 Mariners will miss King Felix and Mitch Haniger (who has been worth 2.0 WAR for them in only 21 games) for at least 3 weeks each.

Kevin Pillar 3-3 with a walk at the top of the lineup.  Well all right, we'll slap and slug with all our might. 

Pillar is due to have, at some point in his career, a year with some BABIP luck and an uptick in ISP combined. That combination turns him into an .800 OPS hitter like his minor league profile. Maybe this is the year?

For the 6th time already a late inning high leverage relief mishap. Quell surprise. The baseball gods appear determined to punish in the most overt way possible every aspect of where the FO cheaper out.

A 1 run lead is a good Biagini situation. A 4 run lead is a good Grill situation.

Hard to not think Grilli is done. He wore down last year and I feel like he's lucky to get anyone out this year. This is so painful. 6 outs for the bats.

If this team turns out to be a significantly sub .500 club because players like Bautista, Martin, Tulo anrd Morales fall off a cliff or the starters implode, then that is baseball hubris. If it happens because the lineup has 2 cavernous holes or the bullpen isn't near good enough, then it's all on Rogers/Shapiro.

It could be the light on the train.

A train named Choo-Choo Coleman?

There is no "situation" that is appropriate for any Jays reliever this year. That's how bad this bullpen is.

But Biagini is clearly the best of them.

So who should the Jays have signed to make this pen better? Grilli seemed a no-brainer to keep around. Many here pushed to send Biagini to AAA to become a starter. Suppose the Jays decided to go nuts and blow whatever it took for the pen.

1) Aroldis Chapman: 5 years $90 mil from Yanks. 8 games 7 1/3 IP 1 run on 4 H 4 BB 11 SO 5 saves so far he'd be looking good but damn expensive.

2) Kenley Jansen – Cubs. Five years, $85MM 8 games, 8 1/3 IP, 5 saves 8 H 0 BB 13 SO. see above.

3) Mark Melancon – Giants. Four years, $52MM. 8 games, 7 2/3 IP, 4 save 9 H 1 BB 9 SO. so far so like the above 2

4) Brett Cecil – Mariners. Three years, $18MM: This is the one most here wanted. 12 G 8 2/3 IP 9 H 5 BB 10 SO 1 HR 5.19 ERA

5) Brad Ziegler – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM: 11 games, 11 IP 7 H 3 BB 6 SO - very nice at a reasonable cost.

In all 5 of the above cases we are looking at roughly one starts worth of innings for $8-$20 mil a year. All 5 would've helped the Jays thus far but odds are the years would've had to be one more in each case to get them here or more cash per year or both. To be honest I expected to see a few more 5+ ERA's but so far only Cecil hasn't looked great out of those top 5 relievers last winter.

in the second half of the offseason, I was thinking something like adding Neftali Feliz to go with Grilli in the late innings before Osuna, but he got a closer's gig. (in that scenario, I'd be seriously considering using Biagini's options to maximize the team's depth... kinda goes to show what I know).

They could have tried to resign Benoit, who has been solid this year.

"They could have tried to resign Benoit, who has been solid this year."

The old pick players who are doing well this year and retroactively say the Jays should have got them/retained them game. Jays should have signed Thames, traded low for Ryan Zimmerman, etc...The reality is that the Jays are not losing because of a player or two, they are losing because Donaldson is hurt, Bautista and Travis are two of the worst hitters in baseball, Tulowitzki, Morales, and Martin are average or below average and making $51M a year combined, Happ and Sanchez have got hurt, etc...You add Harper Sale to this team and they are still under .500. You don't go 6-17 because you picked the wrong setup guy.

None of the closers were a real options.

Boone Logan has an ERA of 1.93, but he's only pitched 4.2 innings. (and he would have cost at least 7M)
Koji Uehara has an ERA of 2.08 and might have cost more than 7M.
Jerry Blevins has an ERA of 1.04 and would have cost about 7M.

Yeah, I think I see a pattern.

In a way, we should be happy that some of the bargain bin players aren't working out. If the front office had had two consecutive years of success with players like Grilli, Benoit, Barney, and Liriano, they might have started believing that they could perennially compete on the cheap, without ever having to make significant investments in elite talent.

The thing is, greenfrog, it IS a viable method to get a bullpen. It's just not a reliable one.
So one year a guy is awesome, but next year unusable.
I don't think the pitchers the jays have are that bad, they've just been exposed to too many extra innings. In this case it's mostly the fault of the offense. There have been mistakes and bad performances, but they wouldn't have mattered add much with even a few runs here and there.

I agree with this to some extent, but I think there is room for strategic investments in truly elite relievers. The Yankees' investments in Miller and Chapman - who weren't really that expensive - helped them stay somewhat competitive in recent years, and also netted them an excellent haul of prospects in trades.

Don't we have the 5th highest payroll in the majors? Only the abysmal Royals hitters are worse than the Jays so far. We're also 2nd worst with RISP. Yeah, the bullpen has imploded, but yeah, it's not the only huge issue.

Free John Stilson!

Don't we have the 5th highest payroll in the majors?

Don't think so...

1. I don't understand why stroman was pulled on 100 pitches, given the state and overuse of the bullpen. especially with longo at the plate. if there was ever a time to push your Ace last night was it. weird call from gibby.

2. one thing i'm a little annoyed with gibby on is him thinking grilli is anything more than an ok middle reliever, with HR problems. bringging him in to face the power bats was ludicrous imo. based on the numbers there's no reason for him to be one of the go-to late inning relievers....even if he's able to keep doing what he did last year, which is no aure thing at his age.

3. looks like biagini's HR luck from last year is evening out, unfortunately. he should still be fine but probably not as good as last year.

4. Osuna pulling a cecil has really thrown the bullpen off. No saving the pen if he doesn't get back on track.

5. The numbers coming into the year said loup and barnes were likely to be 2 of our better relievers. Start using them that way.

It's hard to second guess here. Maybe Biagini needed a day off. Maybe the reason why Grilli was passed in St-Louis was because he was being saved for later which turned out to be yesterday. I don't have much confidence in switching relievers mid innings in high leverage situations unless it's to get a platoon advantage but I wouldn't have said anything if Leone had gotten an out there.

It usually takes Gibby a month or so before he figures how to use his relievers and with all those losses, I think he's significantly behind on that this year. 

Gibbons is also having difficulty with the middle infielders. Travis ought to be playing almost every day and Goins somewhat less.

Don't think so...

Spotrac thinks so...

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

So does cbssports

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-every-mlb-teams-opening-day-payroll-for-2017/

Reading the blurb at the end, it looks like CBS is counting the San Diego portion of Upton's salary. I would guess Sportrac's doing the same.

Agreed, Travis will work his way out of this funk. I think Fangraphs has them as the 9th highest payroll. Filling holes doesn't always require money.

For fun, the AA guys cost about $65 and are all controllable for 2-5yrs):

3B Donaldson
SS Tulowitzki
C Martin
2B Travis
CF Pillar

(OF Carrera)
(OF Pompey)
(IF Goins)

SP Stroman
SP Sanchez

RP Osuna
RP Loup
RP Barnes
RP Tepera


Also could be named "the good half of the roster".

Anybody know what the catcher-ERA is with the relievers ?

I was at the game. Biagini warmed up in the seventh and I thought then Gibby would bring him in the eighth if he needed someone. I know Biagini needs some rest but once you warm him you should try and get him in the game. I was surprised when Biagini sat and Grilli came in.

I would move Biagini to the eight inning role and drop Grilli to mop up for now.

Grilli is in the same form that had Atlanta get rid of him last season, maybe his time has come or he needs a new team to re-energize him. Watching him at the park I really noticed how slow he is between pitches. He does that look down for ten seconds and everyone in the park, hitter, catcher, fielders, are waiting for him. I think if he speeded up his pitching it might help him.

CBS is counting the San Diego portion of Upton's salary

Last time the salary figures were discussed round here, I believe that was the consensus on the different salary numbers.  Sportrac was considered the accurate total, and they list us at just over $166 million on the team page, although on the overall team payroll page they have us $181 (which includes Upton's salary).  I'm not sure why they calculate the totals differently, but $166 million puts us in 10th place payroll-wise.  You can go through any of the lists of individual salaries and this is the number.

The bullpen was assembled on the cheap, which is an approach advocated by a number of posters round here - the 'fungible' reliever approach.  Grilli is emblematic of the risks of this.  I think Biagini as a starter has been put to bed, but to make this approach work, I think the FO should be aggressive with the Buffalo shuttle - we have a number of legit candidates in AAA and AA right now.  Smith and Biagini look strong, Osuna should work through his funk, and the rest of the pen is a volatile mess.  My approach?  Dial back on Grilli and Howell and consider cutting them if they can't work through their issues.  Continue experimenting with Barnes, Loup, Leone and Tepera and Chris Smith (on the DL currently) - all have shown signs of being effective middle relievers - and shuffle through the likes of Campos, Dermody and some non 40-man guys - Murphy Smith has been great since becoming a full-time reliever, Stilson has the big arm and the pedigree, Blake McFarland is back from injury, Carlos Ramirez has another big arm after transitioning from the OF, and we have some legit lefties as well - Beliveau has had moments of success in the bigs, Girodo has a nice history in the minors, and both Mayza and Fernandez in AA could be options.  Not sure if the org sees Bolsinger as a reliever or a starter, but he's had a nice April in Buffalo.   

But obviously, it's not the pitching that is the issue right now.  Even the 6th starter depth question seems to have been answered - we have plenty of guys in AAA who can handle the role. 

Joe Biagini has been dominant today.   He shut down the two-men-on-base situation that he inherited, he's been hitting 96 mph, he's getting strikeouts, and he cruised through 2 innings on just 24 pitches.  He doesn't look tired or over-worked to me.

one thing nobody can complain about is the fans. they've been non stop cheering and encouraging no matter how ugly the games have been.

Baseball Prospectus has the Jays 11th in payroll. A slap in the face to the fans that Rogers hasn't invested more. Worst ownership in MLB.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/

Sad fact: after 22 games, Edwin Encarnacion leads the American League in strikeouts with 32 (in 97 plate appearances). In 2013, Edwin struck out 62 times all year.

Yeah, Edwin's K rate has been going up for a few years.

I did find the crowd quieter on Friday night than they were last year. Its understandable, they are nervous. They were better when the Jays went ahead but overall not as loud as 2016 or 2015.

after 22 games, Edwin Encarnacion leads the American League in strikeouts with 32

And Bautista has gone a little wild himself with 29.

So many people already at union talking about lining up for giveaways? I think I understand now why I was never able to get anything as a kid.

Fun fact: Kendrys Morales is 11-19 with 5 extra-base hits off Chris Archer.  He has walked once and struck out only once.  He's had appearance against Archer every year since Archer came up (and will likely have many more this year now that he is in the same division). The performance could very well be a fluke, but the ratio of extra-base hits to strikeouts makes it less likely.  I'm saying that there is an element here that is not luck.

The timing of Biagini's outing yesterday was interesting.  It was a high-leverage situation in the 6th inning, and he threw two innings.  That kind of usage could work in the long-run, provided you didn't use him in low leverage work as happened on Thursday.  As ti stands, Biagini is on pace to throw 115 innings.  Here is his log for 2017; if he hadn't thrown in the 3 outings with leverage less than one, he'd be on pace for 88 innings (and about 60 appearances)- that would be sustainable.  Or you could just make him the 8th inning man, as Gerry suggests.

Happ is heading down to Florida with Tulo and Donaldson.  Pentecost, Jansen and Lane Thomas are going to have an interesting couple of weeks down there. 

Happ is heading down to Florida with Tulo and Donaldson.  Pentecost, Jansen and Lane Thomas are going to have an interesting couple of weeks down there.
Let's hope both sides are open to some passing on of knowledge.

Article on Alford:

https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/2017/04/alford-regaining-top-prospect-lustre.html

Peter, that article in encouraging.
Assuming that it actually made a difference, the work with Raines is exactly what I hoped would happen with his involvement.

More bad news -- Sanchez leaves after the 1st inning. It appears he was still having discomfort with the blister issue. He threw 13 pitches -- all fastballs -- and they had good life. But apparently he couldn't throw his off-speed stuff. Likely back to the DL...

Close-up here https://twitter.com/77Hendriks/status/858736492906262528

Buster Olney reports the Blue Jays offered Dexter Fowler a 4 year deal worth $64 million.

Of course this is probably leaked by the Blue Jays, trying to make it look like they actually TRIED to spend significant money this offseason, trying to save face on a horrific start to the regular season.

You'll see some more "spinning" by Sportsnet once the Jays are out of contention by the end of June. You'll see the stories of why they need a rebuild and you will see player, a lot of them shipped out, for prospects. Happ (if healthy), Estrada, Bautista, Donaldson, and Morales will all be traded. It's just the beginning of a massive rebuild via media spinning. And the majority of the fans will just take it and the others won't show up. Terrible years of this quality of baseball will be on the horizon. Shapiro sucks.

Yup, sure is some spinning going on.

Of course this is probably leaked by the Blue Jays, trying to make it look like they actually TRIED to spend significant money this offseason, trying to save face on a horrific start to the regular season.

That was reported back in the off season.

Yup, sure is some spinning going on.

Haha

Yeah, don't know how much face the Jays would be saving by leaking info now that they offered significant money to a guy who's been worth less than Justin Smoak this year.

What do you mean? They did try to spend. They tried to spend more on EE. Unless you believe those numbers to also to be some sort of conspiracy theory leak. Of all the things wrong with this team, that they didn't spend on hitters is not one of them. They could have gone in for the bullpen splurges that other teams did or in on Miller at the deadline last year... but that never seemed like commonly advocated approach around here or anywhere. It probably would have been panned by many if that was the road they chose -- I mean who around here would've written, "Chapman that's a fine signing and good use of money for the Blue Jays."?

Injuries and ineffectiveness -- that's all that is needed to explain the team's start. I don't see any reason to believe in or reach for corporate leaking conspiracies. The information about the offer is probably close to on the nose. It makes sense that Fowler would choose the team he did in the league he did. As a fan of this team, I understand that the griping at 'payroll parameters' line is never going to go away. It seems more than plausible that they could spend more, but if you're a Rogers executive do you want to do that? Like the need for the Jays to play in a dome and not a quirky Fenway knock-off, that is the climate the team is in. The Jays do not have a rabid "I can haz all the winz with all the monies" owner. The Jays are a riskier proposition than the Leafs or Raptors. The fanbase will return to pre-2013 levels with a year or two of missing the playoffs and mediocrity.

Glad Loup got the inning-ending double play to bail out Tepera, who was excellent today. The way this year is going, I fully expected Loup not to strand Tepera's runner.

The only questionable move the front office made this winter was three years on Morales. That looked excessive at the time, and in hindsight given how the 1B/DH market shook out, it looks a lot worse now. If they ended up with Thames instead of Morales, that would have been great (even some projections liked Thames prior to the season), but they had their reasons for jumping on Morales which we have discussed already.

I'm not going to hate on the Pearce signing. I loved it at the time. He still has time to bounce back since it's early, but looks like he is losing playing time to Zeke now and Smoak is playing everyday at first given how good he has been to this point (that's baseball for you). Maybe the injury from last season hurt him more than anticipated, maybe it's just a really bad cold streak, maybe age is starting to creep in, or a combination of all of those things. But that was a good move when it happened, good amount of years and reasonable AAV that he was a good bet to beat in terms of value on the field. Just hope he gets enough consistent playing time to get through this and contribute.

Ultimately, this season is a combination of age, injuries, and poor performance from players they needed to perform (Jose, Morales, Travis, etc) causing a mess. This roster was projected to be the best non-division winner prior to the season. I don't think the FO cheaped out or put the team in a bad position. Father time and a combination of other things just took over.

"....provided you didn't use him in low leverage work as happened on Thursday...."

You say "low leverage" as if Biagini has been wasted on meaningless mop-up work.  He hasn't.  In reality, the Jays have virtually never had any true "low-leverage" innings this year, because they've been struggling to win every game.   Thursday was a perfect example:  a game with a typically fragile lead, and the bullpen blew it -- again.   If the manager had opted for his worst relievers after Stroman's six innings, we would have been been baying for his blood.  Instead, Gibbons rightly opted for his best relievers.  It didn't work out, but he can't be complacent and manage his bullpen according to an abstract "leverage" statistic in a season like the current one.

Back-to-back saves for Osuna! Can we hope he's getting right?
Timely hitting! Back to back wins!
On the other hand... who knows how much Sanchez will pitch if he can't get this blister thing under control. And the bullpen has been wiped out AGAIN.

I guess the good news is my fantasy team clocked 14 Rbi's today (thanks, Rendon).

Between all the extra inning games, and two other games where the starter didn't last past the first, the bullpen has really been put through the wringer.

SK in NJ - good point about the lack of really bad moves (on the surface) for the Jays this past offseason. Some moves might look bad in retrospect but it is still April.

The pen has been a headache but it wouldn't be as much of one if the top 2 hitters by OPS+ weren't Pillar & Smoak. Pearce & Travis both having OPS+ so low that they cannot drive (sub 16) was unexpected. Bautista being at 50 so far before his big hit today was also unexpected. Having 3 black holes on the team is tough to overcome.

The team's record is now .500 over the past 12 games, for whatever that's worth.

They probably can't go on any kind of significant winning streak until the return of Donaldson and Tulo and at least one of Sanchez or Happ. But if they can just manage to play better than .500 over the next few games, they might still have a chance.

The good news is the improved performance of Osuna, Bautista and Martin, and the continuation of the unexpectedly good hitting from Pillar, Carrera and Smoak. But they really need Travis and Pearce to hit like they should.

Poor old Ryan Tepera will probably have to be optioned down to make room for a fresh arm for the Yankees series, despite his brilliant performance today.

And we're no longer the worst team in the majors, thanks to the 2 game streak and the KC Royals.

FWIW, FG still has us with a better than 12% chance of playing postseason baseball.

Injuries and ineffectiveness -- that's all that is needed to explain the team's start.

Agreed, but we can still call ownership out when their corporate approach leads to a struggling team, and we can still call management out for moves like the Morales deal.  I hated it at the time, was convinced by some here that it might be a better move than I thought, and after watching Morales for a month, I'm now convinced it was a terrible move.   Morales is a moderately talented offensive player, off to a dreadful start, with zero to offer on the field on the basepaths, on a team with other defensively limited players, and at a price that proved to be a misreading of the market.

I hope I'm wrong.  I loved the Pearce move and liked the cheap depth additions to the pen and the Buffalo rotation, but I was in the minority hoping for a Chapman-type ace reliever. 

With ownership that conservatively seeks cost-effective deals we have less margin for Morales type errors. 

But we did get back-to-back wins, and a huge outing from the pen - I'm still hopeful of meaningful summer baseball. 

In a fit of pique a couple days ago, I said the Jays bullpen was terrible.  I was wrong, and the last couple of games have proven that.  There are several excellent relievers in the bullpen, and even the lower-leverage relievers aren't bad.  It does make sense to have a rotating cast of optionable pitchers at the lower end of the bullpen.  Some of the early season problems can be attributed to injury (Osuna, Howell) and bad luck.  But I do think the Jays should have invested more in the bullpen in the off-season, and I was only partially placated when they finally signed Howell and Smith at the end of the off-season.  I agree with those in this thread who say the Jays should have made a bigger effort to acquire an elite reliever.

When was the last time that the Jays had a clean late-inning comeback victory?  I can't remember it.  They had relatively few of them last year, it seemed to me.

Thursday's day off is very well timed.  They throw Estrada, Latos and Stroman at the Yankees Monday-Wednesday, and then maybe Liriano, Estrada and Latos in Tampa, and then Stroman and Happ when Cleveland comes in to follow. 

Last year the Jays bullpen was protected by the starters pitching so much/well. That means both fewer relievers being forced to start and also fewer innings by the relievers. They only had 464 innings by the bullpen, less than 3 innings a game (2.86/G). This year the bullpen has pitched 90 innings in 25 games. That is 3.6/G.

Getting the starting pitching healthy would help. Having the offense score more runs to cut down on extra innings and allow for some lower leverage outings would also help. I'm not saying our bullpen is outstanding, although they pitched great today, but sometimes the trouble in the bullpen is a follow on from trouble elsewhere in the team.

If they put Sanchez back on the DL, they don't need to option anyone.

Bautista seems to have finally accepted that he needs to go the other way when the team desperately needs a hit and they keep pitching him outside. That's all it takes for pitchers starting to challenge him inside again.

The team is still a good team. They will be good the rest of the way. There is still the argument that the FO kinda halfassed it though.

And i'm pretty sure in the end our bullpen will be a strength this year, as long as osuna is osuna.

Closer Osuna
HighLev Biagini
R/L1 Smith / Howell
R/L2 Barnes / Loup
MR Grilli
(XR Tepera / Leone)

should be good. And I think it will be.

and really, other than Osuna imploding and Grilli being slotted too high in the order, it kinda has been.

"...other than Osuna imploding and Grilli being slotted too high in the order, it kinda has been."

"Other than than, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

Grilli is still looking for the feel on his off-speed pitches. He needs regular works to sort it out which is really the problem.  The bullpen is too overworked for him to throw side sessions and yet Gibbons hasn't been able to find him enough innings.

yep.

no doubt we're screwed if osuna is bad. thankfully his underlying numbers are all still great, so it's likely just a fluke.

as for grilli, i think he's lost his high lev spot already.

hopefully.

I am less than thrilled with the Jays seeming to rush back Sanchez,Donaldson & Travis.

Too bad Tepera might not be available for the Yankees series.

Here's an updated look at what our RP have done over the previous 2yrs plus the first month of this year:

Osuna (22): 151.2ip, 27.8k%, 5.1b%, 67era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-, 1.6war/65ip
Biagini (27): 84.2ip, 20.7k%, 6.2b%, 68era-, 70fip-, 87xfip-, 1.2war/65ip
Smith (33): 129.2ip, 21.0k%, 7.5b%, 88era-, 94fip-, 89xfip-, 0.6war/65ip
Howell (34): 96.1ip, 19.7k%, 7.6b%, 79era-, 92fip-, 93xfip-, 0.5war/65ip
Grilli (40): 101.1ip, 31.6k%, 11.1b%, 97era-, 94fip-, 93xfip-, 0.5war/65ip
Loup (29): 65.1ip, 24.6k%, 6.2b%, 100era-, 91fip-, 78xfip-, 0.1war/65ip
Tepera (29): 65.0ip, 19.8k%, 7.1b%, 91era-, 113fip-, 103xfip-, 0.0war/65ip
Barnes (27): 18.1ip, 22.4k%, 7.9b%, 69era-, 52fip-, 99xfip-, 1.4war/65ip
Leone (25): 53.1ip, 17.7k%, 9.8b%, 158era-, 137fip-, 125xfip-, -1.2war/65ip

should be a solid pen as long as Osuna/Biagini don't fall off too much.

also, Barnes sample is small but pair it with his AAA and AA line over the same time and IMO he should be in the bullpen right now....and probably closer to the top of it than the bottom:

AAA: 31.2ip, 40.2k%, 1.8b%, 0.85era, 0.72fip
AA: 96.1ip, 29.4k%, 5.9b%, 2.24era, 2.76fip

"I am less than thrilled with the Jays seeming to rush back Sanchez,Donaldson & Travis."

Especially after the FO talked so much about our new and improved High Performance Departmemt.

Correlation always equals causation when it suits the narrative.

Happy birthday to Marcus Stroman.  Red socks would be a totally appropriate gift!

I didn't see any evidence of rushing back Travis.  He hasn't hit well, but he looks fine out there and had plenty of time in spring training.

As for Sanchez and Donaldson, judgments were made about recovery that did not turn out well.  This doesn't necessarily mean the judgments were wrong, but if one sees a pattern of it, that is worrisome. 

Sanchez down.  Barnes up. 

Maile gets another start tonight.  It's a bit puzzling with Martin having had days off on the 26th and 28th, and with the team not playing on Thursday.  I guess Gibbons wants to let Maile get his feet thoroughly wet.

McGuire's babip is starting to tick up and the rest of his line with it. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in AAA and Pentecost in AA by the end of the month.

The organization could move Pentecost up and keep McGuire in double A if they feel McGuire needs more time.  They already have Jansen and Reeves in Dunedin.

Pentecost does need to face better pitching sooner rather than later. 

McGuire hacked it at AA all last year with a decent-for-a-catcher just below average line. So far this year his numbers look better across the board save for the sabotaging babip. If it keeps on normalizing his line will look pretty darn good and given his time in AA i'm not sure there'll be much reason to keep him there. Meanwhile Pentecost could use at least a stint in AA i think.

The organization may feel that McGuire needs more time in double A to refine his pitcher handling skills.  Catchers are a different breed. 

The catching depth looks great if Pentacost can stick behind the plate ... I'd love to see a series of promotions for Max, McGuire and Jansen ... backup org soldiers like Reeves, Monsalves and Raffy Lopez can move up or down the ladder depending on where a legit backup is needed to get a prospect enough action. 

Jansen in particular has surprised with his offense - did anyone see this coming?  I knew he was a quality backstop with a good batting eye, but he's looking stronger than I had hoped at the plate right now. 

I think Jansen is the most deserving of promotion. If you saw him in the AFL and were aware that he needed glasses, you could likely have seen this coming.

Jansen had a terrific year in 2014. He was only 18 at the start of the season, turned 19 in mid April, and put up an OPS of .874 in Bluefield, including 5 HR's in 124 AB's. I've had him in my top 15 Jay prospects since then. He hasn't played all that much due to some injury trouble, but I'm presuming he's healthy now. Great to see some catchers in the farm system doing so well - it's been a while since that was the case.

Like many here I love Jansen, and would have no problem seeing him promoted....but given just how awful and short last year was for him, and given how much babip he's needed to post his line this year, I think there's not as much urgency to move him out of A+ quite yet as he's barely had over 300pa in A+ yet and didn't even hit 200pa in A.

Pentecost being promoted is a bit more urgent imo because at 24 he's old even for AA at this point.

McGuire is starting to close in on 500pa in AA now and he's been decent offensively for a catcher...and seems to have taken a step forward this year. Not sure he needs much more time in AA, especially since he's apparently refined defensively too.

I'm going to take ugly's view of Jansen and go a bit more conservative on it - with his injury issues, there's nothing wrong with letting him get a while at A+, especially since that's probably where the better rehab staff is.

Of course, that outlook shapes my view on Pentecost as well - he's missed so much time that it's more relevant that he plays than where he plays. This is especially true while he works his way back into catching. If the best approach to that is to keep him with the Dunedin training staff, then so be it. If he can get a year between himself and the injuries, then he can move as quickly as performance allows - I look at this year as a getting back on track year.

Without the same injury history, McGuire's timetable is more dependant on his performance. I just don't see enough in the performance to really warrant it, with only 3 extra-base hits and not a whole lot else.

I see excellent BB/k rates and a very nice Iso being sabotaged by a low batting average...that's right in line with a likely unluckily low babip. He's just a tick under league average offense (95wrc+) even with that low babip, which is actually nice for a defensive catcher.

Agree on the unlucky babip, but the iso seems massively lucky - more than double the iso any other season. And the sample size is tiny thus far.

Here's one of McGuire's two homers this year.  It doesn't look lucky to me. Here's the other one- it doesn't look cheap either.    He's had 4 homers in 1275 PAs prior to this year and those 2 in 50 PAs.  He has just turned 22.  I'll venture a guess that he hits at least 5 more this year because of a change in approach. 

On the other hand, he definitely is hitting more balls in the air and this might very well lead to a decrease in BABIP. 

agreed the ISO may be a blip as much as it could be him growing up. But even if he never develops power that's not the hugest deal for a defensive C for me. Would be nice if he did gain a bit of pop though.

But for this conversation specifically i'd guess power is probably the last thing to look at in terms of whether he should be promoted.