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Game Threads Blue Jays @ Cardinals - April 25-27
The Blue Jays visit the St. Louis Cardinals in their first interleague road series of 2017.


Series Schedule/Probable Starters

Tuesday at 8:15 pm ET - Marco Estrada (0-1, 2.50 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (2-1, 2.41)
Wednesday, 8:15 pm ET - Mat Latos (0-0, 7.20) vs. Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.76)
Thursday, 1:45 pm ET - Casey Lawrence (0-2, 7.56) vs. Adam Wainwright (1-2, 7.24)

Unlike the Jays, the Cards are waking up after a slow start to the season. They are coming off a 3-1 series victory in Milwaukee after sweeping a three-game series at home against Pittsburgh. Their 9-10 record leaves them two games back of the Chicago Cubs for top spot in the NL Central.

Burning Question - When will the Jays win two in a row?

Hot Take - One more series loss should produce a coaching casualty and a roster shuffle.

Up Next - The Jays return home to play Tampa Bay for a three-game set.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 08:15 PM EDT.
Blue Jays @ Cardinals - April 25-27 | 94 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Eephus - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#341134) #
He may not have stuck the landing, but I'd give Coghlan a 10 on that one.
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hypobole - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#341135) #
Coghlan with the somersault over Molina for the go ahead run. Wow!
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#341136) #
That's going to be on the highlight reels forever.
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James W - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#341137) #
Judges are going to deduct at least one point for the knee to the head.
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krose - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#341138) #
Any speculations on the who the disappearing coach might be? Roster shuffles?
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greenfrog - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#341139) #
Biagini is on pace to pitch 89 games in 2017. Gibbons probably needs to scale back his usage to keep him healthy and productive.
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Four Seamer - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#341140) #
Great to see Cecil Ceciling away out there. Proof it's still April I guess.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#341141) #
The sad thing is, if Biagini started the season in AAA as a starter like it was at least discussed in spring training, then he would be getting big league starts right now. I'd much rather have him starting than Latos or Lawrence, even if it is short term.

Gibbons tends to use relievers a lot. Sanchez throwing 200 innings in the rotation was probably better for his arm than what would have happened if he threw 80 innings in the pen. I don't like the extreme usage of Biagini either, but hopefully it will even out soon enough.

Pearce was probably my favorite signing in the winter, but he has been absolutely brutal. Lots of K's and ground balls, and very few hard hit balls. It's still early, but was expecting a lot more from him. I wonder if his injury from last year is still an issue. He's also 34. Age is a cruel thing.
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Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#341142) #
Pearce has been a streaky hitter, period. His slumps have led to him being in three different organizations in one season ('12) yet the streaky Pearce (most of his minor league career, second half of 2014 on division winning O' team, and beginning of last season, before he got hurt) are indications he can hit at an elite level for extended periods. Certainly not going to pass judgement after 45 at bats.
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Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#341143) #
Just to put it into numbers, from '07 until '10 he had an OPS well over .900 in Pittsburgh's minor league system. After a couple years in the wilderness, he posted a .936 in 2014 with the O's including a .987 in the second half. In 2016, in only 200 at bats, he's back up to .908.

Jays can only hope (and should realistically expect) "good" Steve Pearce to help correct their awful numbers, perhaps quickly and drastically. Anytime now would be great.
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Nigel - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#341144) #
One of the things I love most about baseball (I mean this seriously) is that over 162 games it almost always exposes roster construction weaknesses. There are rarely any free passes over a season. The Jays elected to spend modestly on high leverage relievers and voila it's been a serious issue all season. No complaints about the manager on this one, Biagini, Smith and Osuna were absolutely the right choices.
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Nigel - Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#341145) #
50/50 Stroman starts at 3rd when he isn't the starting pitcher :)
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lexomatic - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#341146) #
What do people think about that slide challenge? I'm listening on the radio and I agree about consistent application of rules, and not giving umps discretion to refuse to review a play. Can anyone who was watching and caviar with the rule comment on the slide itself?  that would be a terrible way to lose a game.
Glad they pulled it out, hope Osuna gets right soon.

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hypobole - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#341147) #
Have to thank the sloppy Cards for this one.

The Jays had 4 innings where they scored runs. Each of those run-scoring innings involved a Cardinal error.
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Michael - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:08 AM EDT (#341149) #
Ok, that game had some fun highlights. Martin playing third base, the superman slide from Coghlan, and the Stroman pinch hit double were great. Also nice that a pickoff move late didn't result in a Jay being called out, but instead resulted in a critical 1st to 3rd advance.
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Dave Till - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:26 AM EDT (#341150) #

Biagini is on pace to pitch 89 games in 2017. Gibbons probably needs to scale back his usage to keep him healthy and productive.

What the Jays really need is to stop playing extra-inning games. Five of their first 20 have gone into extras; last year, there were 13 extra-inning games all year. In a situation like that, all of the relievers are going to get overused. (And a high total of extra-inning games is a direct consequence of having a team with good pitching and no offense.)

I also hope that Biagini's usage gets scaled back, but if he hadn't been used this heavily, the Jays might have lost one or two more games already. And they're already ten feet down a well.

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scottt - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#341151) #
Carlos Martinez's ERA is 4.76 (not the number posted above).
On paper, that's a tough match up.

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China fan - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#341152) #
"....The sad thing is, if Biagini started the season in AAA as a starter like it was at least discussed in spring training, then he would be getting big league starts right now..."

Wait, you see it as a "sad thing" that Biagini has been an elite reliever for the Jays for the entire month of April, instead of sitting in Buffalo and contributing nothing to the major-league team while experimenting to see whether he might be able to become a good starter?

Biagini is arguably the best reliever on the team right now.  Osuna has lost 2 mph on his fastball.  Grilli is getting hit all over the place.  Smith and Leone have been good, but they're not in late-inning situations as often as Biagini, they don't have his track record since the beginning of 2016, and they are not as good as Biagini in multiple-inning situations.  Biagini has probably been the most valuable reliever in the bullpen this month -- he's been an anchor of stability for a team that desperately needs it.  Why would anyone be sad that the Jays decided to keep their most valuable reliever, instead of sending him to Buffalo for an experiment that might not even work?  (Let's not assume that Biagini would automatically be a successful starter; he might easily be a mediocre starter when exposed over 6 or 7 consecutive innings.)
 
As for Latos and Lawrence: they haven't been a disaster. The Jays have a .500 record in their starts, which is better than their record in all other games this season.  Sanchez is about to return, so now the Jays can choose the best of Latos and Lawrence and demote the other.  Happ might be ready soon after.  The team needs to have a 6th starter available this season anyway, so it's useful to know which of Latos or Lawrence (or someone else) is the best pitcher for that role.

If by mid-summer the Jays have given up on the season, there's plenty of time to make the Biagini experiment at that point.  But for now, they need all hands on deck.
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Dave Till - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#341153) #

As for Latos and Lawrence: they haven't been a disaster. The Jays have a .500 record in their starts, which is better than their record in all other games this season.

My $.02 is that Lawrence and Latos have pitched at replacement level at best:

Lawrence: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 SO
Latos: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 SO

They both averaged nearly two baserunners an inning, which isn't wonderful. The Jays won Latos's start because the Jays actually scored 5 full runs for him in the regulation 9 innings - they've only scored 5 or more in regulation time in 6 of the first 20 games (long heavy sigh).

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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#341156) #
Thought lawrence was actually good but victimized by one bad/unlucky inning. Latos i didn't see that game but the bb/k numbers indicate he was lucky to even do what he did. Funny thing is i'm not sure latos even earned the start - the buffalo rotation has been pretty great and most of them probably deserved a call ahead of latos. this seems more of a name/reputation/goodwill/longterm upside move to me.

but hey, at least we don't have the awful injury fill-in depth that a team like the red sox do....Wright/Johnson: 5gs, 4.5ip/gs, 8.33era.
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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#341158) #
and yeah China i agree - hard to understand why having Biagini throw 14ip with a sub-2 era so far in april instead of potentially maybe hopefully being marginally better than latos/lawrence in a spot start or two is a bad thing.
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hypobole - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#341161) #
I think bullpen arms are much more valuable than they were in the past. KC seemed to change the way relievers were thought of. Baltimore the past few years has been successful by tossing out multiple drek starters hoping they can go 5, then shutting down the opposition with their quality relievers.
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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#341163) #
well, mlb bullpen arms have always been worth more than AAA starters.
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China fan - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#341168) #
".....Lawrence and Latos have pitched at replacement level at best....."

Yeah, I tend to agree.  My comment wasn't intended to be a rousing defence of those two pitchers in particular.  I was just pointing out that a stretched-out Biagini might not have done any better than either of those two.  It will be interesting to see which of Lawrence or Latos is kept on the roster when Sanchez returns. 

And here's another potential roster decision:  do you keep Coghlan on the roster after Donaldson and Tulo return?  If not for his heroics last night, Coghlan would be the logical guy to DFA to make room for Donaldson or Tulo -- but how can you dump a guy who gave us the greatest play of the season?  Yet objectively he's not hitting well, he's not bunting well, and he offers little more than the defensive versatility to play both 3B and OF.   And he can't play SS, which is the main reason why Goins is on the roster.  To keep Coghlan on the roster after the return of Donaldson or Tulo, the Jays would probably have to option down a reliever such as Tepera or Leone or Loup.  That's a possibility, since there are 8 relievers in the bullpen at the moment.  But with all the extra-inning games and the absence of two reliable starters (Sanchez and Happ), the 8-man bullpen is somewhat useful at the moment.  So -- goodbye Coghlan in a few days??
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eudaimon - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#341169) #
Lawrence looked way better than Latos to me. The latter looks to be running on fumes at this point. Here's hoping his smoke and mirrors act works for one more night.

That was a pretty awesome dive last night by Coughlan, but that doesn't change that fact that he still stinks. Not great defensively, can't get down a bunt, and isn't particularly inspiring otherwise. I like him as AAA depth but nothing more.

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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#341170) #
Buffalo Rotation so far:

RH Bolsinger (29): 7.1ip, 37.5k%/9.4b%, .471bip, 2.45era/1.24fip
LH House (27): 17.0ip, 29.0k%/13.0b%, .225bip, 0.53era/2.52fip
RH Lawrence (29): 5.0ip, 36.8k%/0.0b%, .273bip, 1.80era/3.08fip
LH Oberholzer (28): 16.0ip, 22.2k%/6.4b%, .296bip, 2.25era/3.10fip
RH Latos (29): 9.0ip, 22.5k%/15.0b%, .292bip, 1.00era/3.62fip
RH Grube (35): 15.0ip, 20.3k%/6.3b%, .302bip, 4.80era/4.48fip

Especially given his poor spring and currently unimpressive stuff, I don't think Latos has earned his call up considering how hot the other guys have been.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#341171) #
John Lott points out on twitter that Salty is 1-22 (a single) with 14 strikeouts.  There are slumps and then there are depressions/crevasses/canyons.  This is more of the latter.  Salty has never been great with the glove and so he's creeping up on 1 win below replacement despite being in only 6 games. 

A radical thought.  Could Max Pentecost be worse?  Would it really hurt his career (now at 24), if he were a back-up catcher and learned the ropes from Russell Martin?  Maybe it's a bridge too far.  The problem is mostly his bat- he hasn't had enough at-bats in the minor leagues.  If not Pentecost, then what about Mike Ohlman?  Obviously he doesn't have the track record and he may be less capable as a pitch handler than Salty. 

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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#341173) #
I've been less than impressed with Salty's pitch handling, too. Obviously the liriano disaster sticks out but he cost estrada some strikes yesterday too I thought.

A little bit of positive babip regression from McGuire, though, and his line would look due for a quick promotion to AAA at least (especially since he already has plenty of time at AA)...while Jansen and as you pointed out Pentecost or both off to good starts and old for their level so a quick promotion wouldn't be out of line for either of them as well.

So all in all I'm guessing Salty's rope is short, given that Maile can really catch and Ohlma is crushing the ball (not to mention Monsalve has an interesting enough track record himself).
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James W - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#341174) #
A reason given for choosing Latos over House was Latos' right-handedness. The Angels have a very right-handed lineup.
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eudaimon - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#341175) #
Salty so far has me missing Thole. That means things are bad. I don't think he stays on the roster much longer if he keeps it up.
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PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#341176) #
some opinions on posts above, news and a question:

I like Lawrence much better than Latos and believe Casey is worth developing further.

Coghlan and Salty will both be gone soon. No way Pentecost would be in TO. Unless, someone else is acquired, it will be Maile who is very competent defensively which is what is needed in a back up. He does not hit much but would still provide more offense than Salty.

In terms of news, tonite's game has been postponed. There will be two games tomorrow, one day, one night. The question is: are the Jays able to carry an extra pitcher for tomorrow's games?
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Cracka - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#341177) #
Tonight's game has been rained out and will be made up tomorrow night as part of a day/night double-header.

I believe the team can add a 26th player to roster for both games tomorrow (Campos, or perhaps Luke Maile?).
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#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#341178) #
Carlos Martinez's ERA is 4.76 (not the number posted above).

Are you doubting the Toronto Star, the paragon of journalistic excellence? That's where I cut and pasted from!

Noted and corrected.

Meanwhile, some encouraging news about the Jays future in Dunedin.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#341180) #
Travis Sawchik on Fielder and Thames.  Bravo!
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James W - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#341181) #
The 26th man is eligible for both games if the doubleheader was scheduled 48 hours in advance. Since this is not the case today, #26 is only eligible for the second game of the doubleheader.
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uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#341182) #
I still like Coghlan. He has a good approach.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#341184) #
The second game would be a great time for Mike Ohlman.  He caught both of Lawrence's games in Buffalo (5 innings, 1 hit, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts). 
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#341187) #
CF, I think it is/was worth exploring Biagini as a starter. There was good reason to believe that the starting five in the rotation was not going to be as healthy as they were last season (it simply does not happen often), and having Biagini as a depth piece in that regard would have not only placed him as the 6th SP on the depth chart but given the Jays a 2018 rotation option (if he succeeded) as well.

If they used him more as a long reliever, bracing themselves to eventually use him as a replacement SP when the time came, then that would have worked too. But a high leverage reliever with Gibbons as manager usually means a ton of work because he routinely only has a couple of relievers he actually trusts and runs them hard. It will be hard to move Biagini into the rotation some time this season if his April workload is any indication.

Biagini could be a mediocre starter, certainly. I'd still give him a shot though. Latos is not a MLB SP anymore and Lawrence likely never will. I don't mind giving House a chance at some point.
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Chuck - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#341193) #
I still like Coghlan. He has a good approach.

If he gets released, Cirque du Soleil might come calling.

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Chuck - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#341194) #
Salty so far has me missing Thole.

2017 is starting out much like 2015 for the man. He opened 2015 2 for 29 and was released in May. He then went on to OPS+ 113 in Arizona.

Were he to be released again this May, I doubt anyone would give him the opportunity to see if there is another 113 left in the tank, not when he has struck out in 2/3 of his at-bats and has simply stopped walking.

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China fan - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#341196) #
"....It will be hard to move Biagini into the rotation some time this season if his April workload is any indication....."

I don't really understand your point here, but maybe I'm misinterpreting some part of your argument.  Biagini has pitched 14 innings in April -- a lot less than he would have pitched if he was a starter this season.  Last season he pitched 67 innings, so he would be somewhat limited this season anyway, no matter his role.  But he did pitch 130 innings in 2015, so that has to be factored in as well.  As the season goes on and the Jays starters become stronger, the bullpen workload should diminish.  Let's say that Biagini has pitched 40 or 45 innings by early July.  If the Jays are clearly out of the playoff race by then, I don't see why he couldn't have a few starts in Buffalo during the summer months to see if he has potential as a starter in 2018.  That way, the Jays are not undermining their playoff chances by prematurely removing one of their top pitchers from the active roster.  They really can't send him to Buffalo at this early stage of the season when they need him to solidify the bullpen.

"...a high leverage reliever with Gibbons as manager usually means a ton of work because he routinely only has a couple of relievers he actually trusts and runs them hard...."

Is that different from any other manager?  Most managers tend to give preference to their top relievers.  If someone is a situational LHP or a lower-leverage pitcher, he's just not going to be used as often as the top relievers.  Any manager goes with the hot hand.  Gibbons is sometimes criticized for showing too much loyalty to a faltering pitcher (like Storen last year).  But he does move them down the priority list at some point when it's clear that they're under-performing.

"...I don't mind giving House a chance at some point...."

I agree.  House should get the next chance at a starting role, if Latos and Lawrence don't suddenly improve.


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scottt - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#341203) #
I'm assuming they'll grab an extra pitcher in case there's a blow out and they don't want to drain the pen.

Because of the double header, they'll need 2 extra pitchers even after Sanchez comes back.

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scottt - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#341204) #
Can Latos be sent back to Buffalo or does he get DFAed if they're done with him?
House is not on the 40 roster, so he would require more transactions.

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Cracka - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#341215) #
I think Latos needs to be DFA'ed because of his service time - after 5+ years, you earn that right and options become irrelevant.

Morales sits for Game 1 today, with Smoak batting clean-up. Otherwise no surprises. Gibby indicated that Martin wouldn't play 3B in the 2nd game after catching, so I expect that we'll see Salty, Morales, and probably Barney start in Game 2. No word on any roster addition yet for Game 2, if any. It's almost certainly not a position player, given that Buffalo is playing now with a regular lineup. It could be Leonel Campos, who hasn't pitched since his recent demotion.



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Chuck - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#341217) #
Just scanning player stats and came upon Ryan Schimpf. How's this for a TTO stat line?

78 PA, 25 K, 15 BB, 4 HR. That's a 56% rate.

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Dave Till - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#341225) #
In the middle of the fifth, it's 1-0 Jays. Yet another low-scoring game.

Hypothesis: the Jays have been granted a special dispensation from the Commissioner Of Baseball to use lead baseballs rather than the traditional ones.
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dan gordon - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#341226) #
Over the last 11 games, the Jays' offense has been decent, considering the absence of Donaldson and Tulowitzki. Averaging more than 4 runs a game, and more than 1 HR a game. Another 4 runs today. Latos having a great game.
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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#341227) #
Biagini with a 4 run lead in the 7th?

If you are worried about overwork, this would be a good place to cut back.
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China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#341228) #
I haven't been able to watch the game, but has Latos made believers of anyone yet?  Does he deserve another start, even after the return of Sanchez?  (I guess we'll probably know the answer after we see how Lawrence does in the second game.)

A quick glance at Gameday suggests that Latos reached up to 93 or 94 mph on his fastball today.  Is he recovering his lost velocity?

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dan gordon - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#341232) #
I would be amazed if Latos was not retained when Sanchez returns (Sunday?). From 2010 to 2014, he put up ERA's of 2.92, 3.47, 3.48, 3.16, 3.25 as a starter in the major leagues, before having injury trouble. He's healthy again now, and is just 29 years old. Had a great game today. He could be retained when Happ returns as well, to pitch out of the bullpen.
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Dr. Zarco - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#341234) #
Latos indeed looked solid today. As the Cards broadcasters noted, it looked like he was pitching angry, not getting a few borderline calls. It seemed to help. He was focused and had solid control. That's a very passable starting pitcher we saw today. He even hit a bullet line drive to RF with the bat. Agree, he will see another start.
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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#341239) #
Very painful game to this point.  The Blue Jays have hit a lot of balls hard and could easily have scored more than 4 runs.  They didn't need to use Biagini and that didn't work out well anyway, and then Osuna gave up a home run in a situation where the one thing you want to avoid is the home run.  Blech.
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China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#341248) #
"....They didn't need to use Biagini...."

I'm very surprised at this criticism.  Before today, Biagini had thrown only 1 inning since April 21.  On a double-header day, the Jays were definitely going to need him at some point today, so it made perfect sense to use him in the 7th inning while the team held the lead. With all the problems that Osuna and Grilli have been having, Biagini is probably the top reliever on the team.  The reason that you use him with a 4-run lead is because a 4-run lead is very fragile these days -- as we've been reminded very vividly today. So you try to lock down a lead, even a 4-run lead, because you know that the other relievers are risky.  The Jays could have won the game in 9 innings if Osuna had been given a 3-run lead instead of a 2-run lead.  Unless you've got a 6-run lead or a 7-run lead, a good manager does everything possible to lock down a game.
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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#341249) #
Nice.  Avoided the heart-breaking one run loss in favour of the heart-breaking four run loss.
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Mike D - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#341250) #
Who really cares how terrible Howell is at pitching when they signed him to such a fair contract?
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Dr. Zarco - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#341251) #
Tepera threw 3 pitches, got an out and gave up 3 runs. This would have been impossible until this year, so is probably the first time this has been done in the history of baseball. Ouch again. I blame Wilner. When Grichuk was up he excitedly said the Jays are one out from their first series win of '17.
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lexomatic - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#341252) #
What a terrible game from the pen. Basically everybody gave up a run. I don't think those pitchers are so bad, but they don't seem very reliable.
That was very much a should've won game. The team doesn't have many of those left.
Bautista had a decent game, and Martin is coming around.
This team needs a BREAK. Needs one of those 20 hit 15 run games that other teams have been getting recently
Needs health.

If this season gets lost and there's a good offer for Donaldson, I hope the team takes it. I'd rather a real rebuild than hedging.

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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#341253) #
CF, we've had the debates about lock-down theory before.  Biagini pitched last night.  After today's appearance, he has now thrown 15 innings in 21 games.  That's a lot.  The leverage of the situation, up 4 runs in the 7th, was 0.8.  That's low.

If you consider the usage less than 24 hours before, the total overall usage this season and the leverage of the situation, it seems to me to be an easy call.  But then, I don't believe in lock-down theory (nor trickle-down theory for that matter!). 


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China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#341255) #
"...Biagini pitched last night...."

No, actually, he didn't pitch last night.  And the key factor is not the total number of innings in his season -- the key factor is that he had pitched only one inning in the past six games.  If you have to baby a pitcher and limit him to a single inning in a week, it's pointless to have him in your bullpen.  You're also ignoring the fact that he would have been needed today anyway. 

Lockdown, trickle down, call it what you want.  But the Jays have blown a lot of late-inning leads in the past couple years, and you don't solve that problem by taking your best reliever and nailing him to the bench because you're worried about his 14 innings in April.
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PeterG - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#341256) #
I also believe that Biagini is being over utilized. In fact, it's at the point imo where the FO has to tell Gibbons to back off.
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greenfrog - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#341257) #
Gibbons has fallen in love with a few other relievers who ended up having injury issues: Janssen, Cecil, Delabar. I'm not sure whether Osuna's heavy workload last season plus WBC is affecting his performance this season. I know all of this may be more correlation than causation, but I would hate to see Biagini get hurt from overuse in what may well be a lost season for the Jays.

I think the O's have done research on the negative effect reliever overuse can have on the pitcher's performance the following season.
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China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#341258) #
"...it's at the point imo where the FO has to tell Gibbons to back off...."

Maybe the FO could have built a better bullpen, so that the manager has better options available in the late innings.

I doubt very much that the FO will complain that the manager is opting to use one of his very few reliable relievers when he has a late-inning lead, especially when that reliever certainly hasn't been over-used in the past few days.

Moreover:  nobody has yet explained why Biagini should be limited to 1 inning in a full week.  Because if he didn't pitch today, that's what it was going to be:  a single inning of work in a full week.
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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#341259) #
My theory of relief usage is pretty simple.  If Biagini is your best reliever, he should be reserved for the high leverage situations unless he needs the work (i.e. hasn't pitched for at least 72 hours) or has had too much work.

You had a bunch of options for the 7th inning today.  Latos had thrown only 82 pitches through 6 innings and had a shutout.  The simple thing would have been to let him go another inning.  Leone and Tepera have been handed the ball in much higher leverage situations than a 4 run lead, and if you don't want Latos to go more than 82 pitches, you could do that. 

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China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#341260) #
Looking at the bullpen usage, it's pretty obvious that the Jays have decided that it is Jason Grilli who needs to be carefully protected.  Grilli has pitched only 8 innings this year, yet he is supposed to be the "set-up man."  For some reason -- his age, or something else -- he isn't capable of a full workload.  That's a problem of a poorly constructed bullpen.  Then there's Howell, who doesn't look like a good acquisition so far.  Then there's Osuna, who has had problems of various kinds (injury, occasional meltdowns) since the late stages of last season.  Most of the rest of the bullpen consists of the usual marginal waiver-wire types who occupy the bottom half of every bullpen, but aren't necessarily ready for high-leverage innings.  So of course Gibbons is going to lean heavily on Biagini.  No manager wants to lose games, especially for the sake of some abstract and poorly defined notion of long-term workload.
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Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#341261) #
Incidentally, I would have tried to get Howell into a game in a lower leverage situation.  His rehab stint in Dunedin consisted of an inning on April 20 (1 hit, no walks, 2 strikeouts, 18 pitches) and an inning on April 23 (struck out the only 3 batters he faced).  He would have been a good choice for the 7th or even the 8th inning today.  Being brought into a bases loaded, one out, extra inning game to face Matt Carpenter fresh off the DL is not ideal.  
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lexomatic - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#341262) #
Mike, I think Howells usage was dictated by expected role and past performance, but I would've preferred your way.

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scottt - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#341264) #
Surprisingly good outing from Latos. Grilli has only had one really bad game, against Boston on the 20 and that was with 0 days of rest. 3 or 4 run lead is exactly when you want him to pitch. With Osuna, the size of the lead does not seem to matter.

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Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#341265) #
Anyone care to take a shot at the last time the Jays rolled out a starting line-up this poor offensively? It feels like you might need to go back to Joe Lawrence 2B somewhere on the line-up card but I'm sure there's likely been a few between then and now.
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CeeBee - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#341266) #
Well, when you're off to a 6-15 start the weak lineup probably doesn't matter much. Can't do much worse than the regular lineup at this point.
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jerjapan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#341267) #
Lawrence is really taking his lumps with a shallow pen in the doubleheader.  That fact that he made the bigs at all is remarkable, but I'd love for him to have at least one good outing at some point ...

So when does the good Kendrys Morales show up?  The 'professional hitter' and savvy offseason pickup? 
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lexomatic - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#341268) #
So when does the good Kendrys Morales show up?  The 'professional hitter' and savvy offseason pickup?

Didn't he win the first 2 games?
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greenfrog - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#341269) #
Morales has the same fWAR as that of Encarnacion (-0.1). Tough start for the two sluggers, although Morales has had some timely hits for the Jays.
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jerjapan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#341270) #
Remarkable, given his whopping .658 OPS and negative 0.1 fWAR this year. 

If we are just going by big moments, he's up there for me with the likes of Ryan Goins.

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PeterG - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#341271) #
Hard to hit well with no protection behind you.
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greenfrog - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#341272) #
Morales with a three-run HR tonight. He's now hitting .235/.293/.400, which isn't great, but it's not an especially concerning slash line for late April.
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Michael - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#341273) #
Slash lines worse than Morales (by OPS):

Tulo 263/295/386 693
Barney 308/341/333 675
Coghlan 208/310/250 560
Bautista 163/299/225 524
Pearce 163/212/163 375
Travis 129/187/186 372
Saltalamacchia 040/077/040 117

Morales's SLG is higher than Travis's OPS and Travis's terrible 129 BA is higher than Saltalamaccia's OPS!

Not counting Stroman, the only Jays with good OPS are Donaldson (1015), Pillar (806), and Smoak (792).
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eudaimon - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#341274) #
The Jays actually look a lot better to me right now. Pretty competitive, lots of hard hit balls, fun to watch (unlike those first games).

Unfortunately, injuries have taken their toll, and the AAA players can't really fill their shoes. Donaldson in particular is missed, I think we would have won more of these last few games with him in the lineup.

I prefer to remain optimistic that the team might be able to sneak into a playoff spot, but it'll take some good luck, both in-game luck and injury luck to pull it off. They basically need to go 18-20 games over 500 the rest of the way, not impossible I don't think but very tough.
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scottt - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#341275) #
Baseball-reference has Morales as the 11th Blue Jays top player.
Latos is 12th.

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scottt - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#341276) #
Like Encarnacion, Morales is usually a slow starter.
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Chuck - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#341278) #
Some high-level numbers, Jays vs. opponents:
  • RUNS: 78, 101
  • AVG: 225, 259
  • OBP: 293, 327
  • SLG: 347, 427
  • OPS: 640, 754
  • BABIP: 281, 307
  • RISP: 187/270/323, 228/338/373
  • HR: 20, 25
  • BB: 69, 75
  • SO: 207, 182
Not surprisingly, a 6-16 team is not winning any of the battles.
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Mike Green - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#341279) #
At the outset of the season, the Blue Jay players who could be expected to be noticeably above average were Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Pillar, Travis, Bautista, the five starters and Osuna.  Of these, only Stroman, Estrada , Martin and (arguably) Pillar have delivered what could reasonably be expected from them.
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Nigel - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#341280) #
Agreed Mike. I don't know what people are expecting from Morales but he was never going to be a replacement for EE no matter what the Rogers marketing machine said. He has a long MLB resume that sets out what he is and isn't. Morales hasn't been the problem (or at least he's waaaay down the list of problems). On the other hand, Morales isn't the answer to what ails this lineup- he is what he is kind of meh. He'll hit better as we go along but it's unreasonable to expect a lot more from him.
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Hodgie - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#341281) #
Does anyone have any numbers that demonstrate Gibbons over-uses particular relievers more than any other manager in the game? For how often it is stated as fact, I would imagine there must be some numbers to support that point of view. A quick glance doesn't seem to support the narrative but perhaps someone that espouses this point can share their empirical evidence?

Someone earlier in the thread made mention of the fact that the Orioles has studied the effect of reliever over-use; would be interesting to see the results given how pitchers like Brach, Givens, and Britton have been used over the last three seasons.

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Mike Green - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#341282) #
In fairness to Osuna, his numbers this year are entirely consistent with previous years despite the horrendous ERA and blown saves.  The big difference is the sky-high IF hit rate and BABIP.  He's struck out 6 in 6 innings, walked nobody, given up 1 home run and has about the same proportion of hard-hit balls as usual.   Yesterday's outing was bad though. 
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Mike Green - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#341284) #
Auston Matthews has months off and a pretty good swing.  Sign him up. 
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Gerry - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#341285) #
Per Shi Davidi the Jays now have less salt. Saltalamacchia gone, Luke Maile up.
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Four Seamer - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#341286) #

That's all she wrote for Salty in TO, apparently.

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Cracka - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#341287) #
Shi Davidi is reporting that Salty is out and Luke Maile is in as backup catcher.

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SK in NJ - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#341288) #
Salty is a poor defender, poor thrower, and poor framer. Really he had to hit in order to justify a big league spot, and he clearly was not doing that.

Hopefully next time the Jays just find a back-up catcher who can do the defensive aspects of catching well. Most back-up catchers cannot hit. They should at least be able to do some other things.
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Mike Green - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#341289) #
Good move. 

It'll probably be necessary to make a trade before bringing up Dwight Smith Jr, but the sooner that happens, the better.  The club has four players who really ought to be restricted to DH/1B.  Three is enough. 
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#2JBrumfield - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#341290) #
Shi Davidi is reporting that Salty is out and Luke Maile is in as backup catcher.

Yay! Hope the door hit him on the way out. He sucked worse than Thole and that was saying something. Also got a WS Ring in 2013 with a certain team so another reason I can't stand him.

Also, Matt Dermody is back up and Casey Lawrence goes back down.
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Four Seamer - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#341291) #
While my hopes weren't that high for him, the fact that learning he married his high school's gym teacher will forever remain the highlight of the Saltalamacchia Era for me is somewhat depressing.
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Mike Green - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#341293) #
Lawrence's departure is a clear sign that Sanchez will be returning to the rotation.  That's good, obviously.
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jerjapan - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#341295) #
Glad to see the org cutting their losses fast with Salty - desperate times and such.  Hard to feel sorry for the guy, he gets over a million for having stunk up the joint, but that might be his last guaranteed contract. 

I've said this before, but I do worry about Dermody's ability to get outs in the bigs. 

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