Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Max Effort From Pentecost, Perdomo & Guerrero Jr.

Max Effort From Pentecost, Perdomo & Guerrero Jr.

Another .500 night on the farm with Dunedin getting into the win column. Buffalo's doubleheader in Norfolk and New Hampshire's home date against Trenton were washed out.

Dunedin Blue Jays

Max Pentecost had just one hit but he made it count with a grand slam to send the D-Jays on their way to victory. The 2014 first-round pick played this game at the cold corner. Cavan Biggio has a five-game hitting streak and hits in nine of his last 10 to give him a .284 batting average but his K/BB figures of 19-3 raises a red flag. Lane Thomas had three hits and his OPS is up to .916. Danny Jansen went 2-for-5 and is hitting .414.

Angel Perdomo went a season-high six innings, yielding just a run on three hits and three walks. The lefty struck out six and induced seven groundouts. His WHIP is still on the high side at 1.60. Fellow lefty Daniel Young still has goose eggs for an ERA with a scoreless frame. He has a 6-2 K/BB ratio over 8-1/3 innings.

Lansing Lugnuts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. socked his third homer of the season as part of a three-hit, one-walk performance. He is on a nine-game hitting streak and his OPS is at .996. He still has more walks than strikeouts at 13-11. Jake Thomas also had a three-hit effort to give him a .333 batting average and a whopping .520 on-base percentage in his second season with the Lugnuts. Bo Bichette was 2-for-3 with a walk. Catcher Ridge Smith was 0-for-3 in his Lansing debut but drew a pair of walks.

Lugnut pitchers struck out 14 batters, including five from Tayler Saucedo and four from Kirby Snead, but gave up 11 runs with Mike Ellenbest taking the loss. Only Zach Jackson had a scoreless outing, striking out two to offset two hits but he did allow two Snead runners to score over 1-2/3 innings.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Max Pentecost, Dunedin

2. Angel Perdomo, Dunedin

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lansing

Tuesday's Linescores

Extra Innings

The Buffalo News looks at five reasons for the Herd's hot start.
The Buffalo News also has a story on Dwight Smith Jr. and another on Rowdy Tellez.
The Toronto Star looks at the uncertain future of the Blue Jays in Dunedin.
Sportsnet has a prospect report that focuses on Lugnuts infielder Bradley Jones.
MiLB.com talks to Lansing outfielder Edward Olivares after his cycle Monday.

Wednesday's Games/Probable Starters

Lansing @ South Bend, 12:05 pm ET - Denis Diaz (0-0, 1.59)
Norfolk @ Buffalo, 5:05 pm ET (DH) - Luis Santos (0-0, 0.00)/Jarrett Grube (1-1, 4.88)
Trenton @ New Hampshire, 5:05 pm ET (DH) - Francisco Rios (2-1, 3.31)/Jon Harris (1-1, 7.04)
Dunedin @ Charlotte, 6:35 pm ET - T.J. Zeuch (1-0, 1.64)

Please see Gerry about validating your parking.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 02:32 AM EDT.

Max Effort From Pentecost, Perdomo & Guerrero Jr. | 53 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#341154) #

Vladdy is starting to look crazy good. Like best-jays-prospect-ever kind of good.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#341155) #

oh and i would love to hear some feedback from dunedin folks on how Thomas is handling CF. because he's hitting great, and is the only one of the hitting prospects there that isn't a bit old for the level.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#341157) #

The Jays have been leaving Lane Thomas in centerfield rather than shuttling him about between the outfield and infield, and it seems to be paying dividends. His K rate is still high, but getting much better as time goes on. He may have learned something.

He has a balance of other skills- speed, power and the willingness to take a walk. He is 21 years old and in A+ ball. If he can keep it going and earn a call-up to double A for 4-6 weeks, he will be right on track.

Nigel - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#341159) #

I saw a lot of Thomas in Vancouver but, unfortunately, can't comment on his OF defence. He was still in his ill conceived 2B stint. However, he is extremely athletic and fast. I would be extremely surprised if he couldn't be an average or better (potentially much better) defensive OF. Two other comments, although he's athletic, I don't know many SB are on the cards for him as his one weakness in this area is first step quickness. This was part of his issue defensively at 2B. Otherwise he's an excellent base runner. Secondly, he was a mess offensively in Vancouver but most of his problems seemed to be mental. He really seemed to have zero approach and little understanding of what pitches he did and did not hit well. Minor league batting practice is very interesting from a sounds perspective. Odd comment, I know. Unlike major league batting practice where most batters fairly consistently produce the sweet crack that you think of in batting practice, in Vancouver only a few are able to consistently produce the sound of good bat speed making solid contact. Thomas was one of those few. He would be a good addition to the prospect pool for all the reasons Mike mentioned.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#341160) #

Answering PeterG's question from a couple of days ago. Ryan Borucki should come off the DL tomorrow.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#341162) #

Thanks Gerry for digging out the info.

clark - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#341164) #

Like, Travis Snider kind of good??

Not trying to downgrade Vladdy Jr. Just was curious, Snider had an excellent season at the same age and at the same level. A difference that does jump out is the low K rate for Vlad.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#341165) #

The Snider comp is of course the first reaction, but the great lesson of Snider (for me at least) was learning the hard way about the importance of strikeout rates. Snider never struck out less than 20% of his PAs, and most every year was in the 25-30+ range. Lots and lots of strikeouts. That always indicated a hole in his swing, in retrospect. Vladdy on the other hand strikes out less than 15% of the time at both levels so far.

Secondly, vladdy is a year younger than Snider so far at both levels, which is a big difference.

Thirdly, Snider always relied on sky-high babips to put hp his big numbers - up right near .400 in all his good years. Vladdy on the other hand is putting up similar great numbers but with a much more modest babip, giving those numbers much more carrying power.

At this point Vladdy hasn't quite shown the same power that Snider was showing at the same levels, but again he's younger and his raw power isn't really even a question mark, anyways.

TL/DR; if Vladdy keeps up at anywhere near this level, he's a significantly more impressive prospect than Snider was.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#341166) #

Minor league batting practice is very interesting from a sounds perspective. Odd comment, I know. Unlike major league batting practice where most batters fairly consistently produce the sweet crack that you think of in batting practice, in Vancouver only a few are able to consistently produce the sound of good bat speed making solid contact. Thomas was one of those few

Thanks, Nigel. That fits. I'll be watching Thomas' K rate very carefully over the next couple of months. If he can get in the 20-22% range while maintaining his other skills, that should be enough.

China fan - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#341167) #

Following up on yesterday's discussion on Pompey: thanks to those who pointed out that the 60-day DL decision is officially listed on the Jays website. I found the transactions page eventually, and sure enough, it is listed there for April 17. The corresponding move is a bit confusing, but maybe it was required to make room for Latos on the 40-man roster. Also thanks to Dan for noting that Barnes is mistakenly omitted from the website version of the 40-man roster but is actually on the 40-man. That seems to answer my last question about the transaction sequence.

stevieboy22 - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#341172) #

Since I have been following the Jays system (started in 2005) the current Lansing infield is by far the most exciting.

#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#341179) #

No good pitching today in Lansing with 17 runs already halfway through their game against South Bend. Bo Bichette has a homer. Vladdy Jr. has the day off.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#341183) #

J B Woodman has 2 more hits and a walk in Lansing today and is now hitting .300 with excellent defense. He is a good prospect (despite the K's) imo.

Bichette has also added a double to his HR today.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#341185) #

Woodman has 29 strikeouts and 1 home run in 17 games at age 22 in the Midwest League. Even a slow developer like Devon White was in the Midwest League and holding his own at age 20.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#341186) #

A 22-year old in A-ball with a 38% K% is not a prospect, IMO. He has to cut that rate in half, or at least substantially, in order to progress. With that K rate, he will get exposed big time as he moves up.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#341188) #

Has no-one ever heard of prospects improving as they develop. Woodman has had less than half a season of professional ball. The HR's will come as the power is there. I respectfully disagree with the naysayers, putting far too much emphasis on one weakness that can be easily corrected as seems to have been the case with Anthony Alford.

There was a reason he was drafted as high as he was and I don't think it was a mistake.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#341189) #

In his professional career Woodman has produced:

33.6% K% - Awful
11.4% BB% - Above Average
0.132% - Below Average

Awful contact skills with below average power does not bode well over a 295 PA sample size.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#341190) #

The K rate has been coming down of late and may well continue to do so. You can't just look at a stats page and see the whole picture. Having listened to several Lansing games this season. I will trust what I am hearing.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#341191) #

yeah, a bit early to call him a non prospect, especially since overall he's actually hit well, and given that despite his advanced age a college pick like his is expected to spend at least some time in single A.

He does need to show a quick performance trajectory and keep moving up levels fast, and if he's not hitting at a decent clip in AA by sometime next year then he probably gets an X.

But in general a 57th overall pick putting up a 130+ wrc+ in his first 350pa in the pros is a good thing not a bad thing, especially when he has defensive ability and athleticism.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#341192) #

Man, Bichette is looking even better in full season ball at 19 than he did in the GCL at 18. Better line across the board - more walks, less strikeouts, lower babip, more sustainable ISO. And the sample size this year is now nearly as big as last year's.

I did not expect that.

Nigel - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#341195) #

It only takes a few minutes to understand why Woodman was drafted so highly - he is extremely gifted athletically. However, he appears to have next to no baseball skills to go along with this. In particular, he seems to have little to no pitch recognition skill. I think the problem here is his age. If he was 18-19 with these problems that would be one thing, its another to be 22 with the same issues. Its way too early to write him off, but he has a long long way to go.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#341197) #

What I am saying is that there seems to have been noticeable improvement in his weaknesses since the beginning of the season. I will agree with Ugly's assessment that if he is not in AA by some time next season, he is likely a non prospect but imo that is unlikely to happen.

Age can sometimes be overrated as well. I think rate of improvement is just as significant. At the same age, Josh Donaldson was hitting .217 in the same league

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=518626#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

It is where you end up, not necessarily how you get there. Way too much emphasis being put ok K totals imo, especially when the rate appears to be declining.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#341198) #

His K rate hasn't really been coming down at all. He's struck out at least once in every game so far and at least twice in 10 of the 16 games he's played. If you look at his last 5, 10 or all 16 games this year he's striking out too much.

He is an athlete and it is far too early to call him a non-prospect, but his results don't indicate future success. I won't get excited until he shows improvement in his contact ability.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#341199) #

Of course, Woodman could conquer his strike zone issues. By the same token, Jason Leblebijian might also be the next Josh Donaldson. The odds are against both of them, and by a hefty margin. I'm glad that both are keeping at it.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#341200) #

Bo Bichette though. He's made 5 errors already, but he keeps on hitting. At this point, he's on the Chipper Jones track (he's basically doing in the Midwest League what Chipper did at age 19 in the South Atlantic League- OK, Bichette has been better). Jones made it to double A in the second half of his age 20 season, and was by then one of the top few prospects in baseball.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#341201) #

Bichette is not a SS. His future will be at some other position. I don't think Lourdes Gurriel will stay at SS either. It is disappointing that he hasn't been able to play much due to ongoing hammy issues, but when asked about him on the 'Beyond the Nest' podcast, the Dunedin announcer simply replied: "he's a stud".

China fan - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#341202) #

"....Jason Leblebijian might also be the next Josh Donaldson...."

As you say, the odds are against it. But I like the fact that he is forcing us to learn how to spell his name!

Next: how to pronounce it. (Buck's assignment for 2018.)

scottt - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#341205) #

Wasn't Pillar even older in the Midwest League? Woodman just need to be average with the bat to generate value given his defense. It's possible.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#341206) #

Vlad Jr, Bichette and Alford could be A/A- prospects by the end of the year if they keep this up.

The hitters have been exciting, but the hardest thing for me to figure out if is any of Greene, SRF, Zeuch or even Harris ends up as a front of the rotation pitcher, or probably more importantly who is ready to be a mid rotation pitcher first.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#341207) #

I didn't agree with you at all on Woodman Shoeless, but I do agree that it is a tough call on the pitchers you mention. I don't really want to go out on too far a limb on that one but if pushed, would probably say that SRF and Zeuch are the most likely to succeed. I also think more of Harris than some do. Again, I allude to rate of improvement which I see as a positive in his case. I am not sure that Greene will ever be a good major league starter but may succeed as a reliever. I worry about his make up more than about his stuff whereas with Harris I think make up is a big plus.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#341208) #

Of course Woodman could improve. The issue is he is 22 in A-ball and is still striking out nearly 40% of the time. Someone mentioned Pillar, but he never struck out that much in the minors. Not even close, actually. He just never drew walks.

Woodman has a lot to work on offensively. He could rise eventually, but based on what we have seen this season and last season (obvious small sample size) his numbers are not something to indicate that he is ready to move up.

PeterG - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#341209) #

Each of the Lopes brothers hitting over .300 at this time.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#341210) #

for me its SRF and Zeuch that are mid rotation guys, and could be knocking in the 2nd half of 2018. Greene i bet is a reliever. Harris.....don't think he makes it. Rios might, though. Maese too, but he's a year behind.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#341211) #

I would nominate Carlos Delgado as the Blue Jays greatest prospect ever. He hit 18 home runs and had an OPS of .855 at single A at the age of 19. Vlad Jr. may yet surpass him, both in the minors and majors. He is a very exciting prospect.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#341212) #

I am sure that there have been a few players who have done very well in the Midwest League at age 18. The only one I can think of though is Alex Rodriguez, who hit .319/.379/.605 at age 18 in the Midwest League and got a cup of coffee with the big club that year. He was ready to dominate in pro ball by age 20. Another player who dominated full-season ball at age 18 was Delmon Young- Young hit .320/.386/.536 in the Sally League at age 18 but did strike out 120 times in 566 PAs (and he was six months older than Guerrero at the time).

Guerrero's combination of plate control and power at a very young age is unusual. Even his Dad was older at each developmental level.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#341213) #

I know that Max Pentecost and Kevin Costner do not really look alike, but there is something about that picture of Pentecost above that puts me in mind of Crash Davis.

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#341214) #

Delgado would be one of the gold standards, for sure.

Vladdy's small sample isn't enough to go by, yet, but if he keeps it up....

(I wish we had delgado's milb babips and wrc+s for a full comp but we can make do with what we have)....

Guerrero (18, A): 78pa, 16.7b%, 14.1k%, .328avg, .219iso, .996ops
Delgado (19, A): 528pa, 14.2b%, 18.6k%, .286avg, .172iso, .855ops
Delagdo (18, A-): 273pa, 12.8b%, 23.8k%, .281avg, .136iso, .799ops

again, too small a sample to conclude anything yet but as of right now Vlad is a good bit ahead of where Delgado was at the same age - Vlad is putting up more impressive top and underlying numbers than Delgado was, while being younger for his level.

It wasn't until age 20 that delgado really broke out and came into his power and started doing what Vlad is already doing at 17/18:

Delgado (20, A+): 552pa, 10.7b%, 16.5k%, .324avg, .255iso, .982ops

And then it wasn't until age 21 that delgado supported that power with the kind of elite plate discipline that vladdy is already showing as well:

Delgado (21, AA): 581pa, 17.6b%, 16.9k%, .303avg, .221iso, .954ops

So vladdy seems to be ahead of Delgado at the moment, by perhaps a healthy margin.....but then again he'll have to carry that performance through to higher levels to keep up with Delgado as a prospect, too.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#341216) #

One more thing about Delgado is that it wasn't until he was 23 that he broke through a major league player, even his good stats in the minors at a young age. Vlad Jr., with his slightly better (so far) numbers, might arrive a year or two earlier. With the exception of Kevin Pillar, it seems like forever since the Jays have featured any home grown positional players.

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#341221) #

Martin now with a 114wrc+, despite his 0-fer-ever start to the season.

James W - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#341223) #

BABIP is easily calculable: (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF). Any stat weighted and park corrected will not be easily calculated however, so I can't help there.

1990 (18 A-) Delgado - .360 BABIP
1991 (19 A) Delgado (just Myrtle Beach) - .328 BABIP
1992 (20 A+) - .347 BABIP
1993 (21 AA) - .334 BABIP

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#341224) #

danke!

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#341233) #

Osuna be killing us. Wake up, kiddo.

bpoz - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#341236) #

I thought Osuna was a sure thing. Now I am troubled.

Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#341238) #

Not just Osuna - all the high leverage relievers. I've been saying this for several weeks now, its a roster construction weakness. The offence is almost certain to revert to being ok (although imbalanced and with two pretty glaring holes) but the bullpen isn't likely to be much better than it has been to date. Osuna is likely to be better (unless he's injured) and Howell will help but the collection of talent is pretty meh any way you look at it.

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#341240) #

i dunno i'd say the bullpen has been pretty dang good outside of the closer imploding.

Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#341241) #

The bullpen has been excellent in low leverage situations.

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#341243) #

have there even been any low leverage relief situations?

Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#341244) #

This is already the 5th time this year the bullpen has surrendered a lead in the 6th inning or later. This also doesn't include extra inning losses like Grilli's blow up against Boston.

Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#341245) #

I accept that bullpen problems are magnified on a low offense team.

uglyone - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#341246) #

3 of those 5 are osuna though, right?

Nigel - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#341247) #

In at least one of those situations (last game against St. Louis) it happened more than once :), but two of them were definitely Osuna. Although, don't forget Biagini and Smith also gave up runs today in the 7th and 8th.

The bullpen is not responsible for the terrible record. That wasn't my point at all. I also wasn't crapping on the bullpen as a whole, which I agree has generally been good. But the team is light on dependable, high leverage relievers for the 7th and 8th. I liked the signing of Smith and Howell. I just think you sign them to be in the back half, not the front half of your pen.

China fan - Thursday, April 27 2017 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#341254) #

"....I liked the signing of Smith and Howell. I just think you sign them to be in the back half, not the front half of your pen...."

I agree. The Jays miscalculated by thinking that 40-year-old Jason Grilli could be the set-up man. Osuna, too, was due for some regression, and he showed signs of shakiness in the latter part of last season. It would have been better if they had acquired at least one more top-calibre reliever, but they opted for a cheaper route.

uglyone - Friday, April 28 2017 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#341277) #

welp, that pretty much kills the year.

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