Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Game Threads Orioles @ Blue Jays - April 13-16
Sorry for the late series thread. I thought someone else on the roster was going to do it. DISCLAIMER - It's not my fault if the Blue Jays crap the bed again this series!!



Series Schedule/Probable Starters

Thursday, 7:07 p.m. ET - Kevin Gausman (0-0, 5.40) vs. Francisco Liriano (0-0, 135.00!)
Friday, 7:07 p.m. ET - Wade Miley (0-0, 0.00) vs. Aaron Sanchez (0-0, 1.29)
Saturday, 1:07 p.m. ET - TBA vs. Marco Estrada (0-1, 5.73)
Sunday, 1:07 p.m. ET - Dylan Bundy (1-1, 2.70) vs. J.A. Happ (0-2, 5.40)


Burning Question - Can the Leafs win one in Washington?

Hot Take - The Jays need to win at least four of their next seven to save the season.

Up Next - Boston April 18-20.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 07:10 PM EDT.
Orioles @ Blue Jays - April 13-16 | 178 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
eudaimon - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#340626) #
Against my better judgment I'm going to watch some of this game.

Ah, who am I kidding. It's not like I have anything better to do.

Liriano looking good early. Already has more outs than in his last start.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#340628) #
You know things are bad when Gibbons benches one of the team's better hitters so that Zeke could start in LF and lead off in what's considered a move to "spark" the offense. I know Pearce has started off poorly but so has the rest of the team. Benching him isn't the answer.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#340629) #
I think it's a good move, or at least one that's unlikely to make much of a difference. Pearce hasn't done much of anything so far, and we probably want to rest him anyways, so why not do it now? I think you put Carrera in there too just hoping that he's hot, or at least able to hit at a league average pace.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#340631) #
Buck & Pat said something about a player saying that they have to "stick to the game plan."

I have to wonder... what part of the game plan involves staring at pitches right down the middle for strike three?

I know baseball is harder than it seems. But it feels like bad approach when guys (Tulo & Martin in this game, just from what I remember) take an obvious called strike three.

It's like these guys have no 2-strike strategy. At what point to you place the blame on the hitting coach?

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#340632) #
As I mentioned the other day (referencing Donaldson in particular), losing streaks create the temptation to start players who really should be resting and recovering from injuries.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#340633) #
Yeah, but it doesn't seem to create the temptation to replace dead weight (referencing Goins in particular) for guys that have some situational offensive value, like a really good base-stealer for example. Sure, Salty can DH, but is he you're best base runner?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#340634) #
0-4 in one run games.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#340635) #
Tulo probably should've gone on Pillar's ground ball, if only because it would have forced them to make a play, gave us a chance to tie the game, and at worst would have resulted in a 1st and 3rd situation.

Pearce hit the ball pretty hard but right at Jones. Not much you can do about that I guess.

I think I'll refrain from watching games until they become less physically painful to see.
[ Reply to This ]
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#340636) #
This has become almost comical. Almost. Feel for the players. As frustrated as we are, this is their livelihood. Has to turn around. Can't be sub .140 with RISP all year. Pitching continues to be strong. It'll turn.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#340637) #
Pitching is very good again but the bats can't do anything. Small sample size and all, it looks like there is a carry over from last September. On top of that it looks like Donaldson will probably be banged up unless he has an extended period of rest (meaning more Goins/Barney at 3B).

Even when the hitters get hot (and they will) it will be tough to climb out of a 1-8 start factoring injuries (Donaldson), age, and lack of depth. The Jays were projected to be the best of the non division winners, but a lot of teams were bunched in the similar win bracket (between 82-86 wins). They couldn't afford a terrible start like this.

Ruben Amaro Jr's Phillies went from 102 wins in 2011 to aging overnight with 81 wins the following season and then downhill from there. Age was the biggest weakness on this team aside from depth, and the team just looks old and slow when the big bats are not producing.

The 2004 vibes are strong right now and I hate to say that during the 2nd week of the season.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#340638) #
The Jays' batting was poor in Sept/Oct last year, too. If you look at the last part of 2016 and the first part of 2017, the bats have been cool for quite some time now.
[ Reply to This ]
lexomatic - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#340639) #
Whoever the submariner was made the Jays look terrible. I caught a glimpse of 2 at bats in the 7th, I think? Swinging at terrible pitches and hitting WEAK groundballs.

They're now in the territory of needing at least one really good win streak before the all-star break or I will expect the current management to start selling. That said, I don't expect them to buy at any point, really.

[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Thursday, April 13 2017 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#340641) #
The Jays are slugging .277 as a team. They're 0-7 in games decided by two runs or fewer. If they had just the tiniest bit of hitting, they could be sitting at 5-4 or something.
[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#340642) #
In my baseball life I've played on a few 1-8 teams and on a few 8-1 teams. Those 8-1 teams were never as good as the record suggested, and those 1-8 teams weren't as bad as such either. So much of success in sport balances on the intangible fortune of breaks going your way, like a Steve Pearce line drive into center sailing thirty feet shorter instead of landing in Adam Jones' glove. These Blue Jays have simply been deadly allergic to such breaks so far. It's simultaneous reason for optimism and unhinged horror.
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#340643) #
I grant you they're probably not as bad as their 1-8 record indicates. I am reasonably confident they will win more than the 18 games their pace currently suggests.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#340646) #
Liriano is back but there's no replacing Donaldson. Barney had another hit. Morales will move back to DH and the firstbaseman will have to contribute.

It looks like those calves injuries won't go away. I wonder if it's something like compartment syndrome.
Donaldson has huge calves.

About the game plan. I think it's to try to pull everything over the fence.

There is luck involved, but the Orioles are moving their defense according to the Jays hitting and the catcher is calling the game according to the players placement.

Also, the Jays have had problems scoring runs without home runs for  a long time now.




[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#340647) #
Todays pitching matchup is Aaron Sanchez vs. Wade Miley. If the Jays are to break their streak, today would be the day.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#340648) #
Desperate times, desperate measures.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#340649) #
I would definitely have had the contact play on with Pillar at the plate in the ninth.  With Britton on the mound in the 9th and Osuna available for the 10th, I would really want to tie the game.  The loss of a base for the trailing runner in the event Tulo was thrown out at the plate would be much less significant than the increased chance of Tulo scoring. 
[ Reply to This ]
johnny was - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#340650) #
Serenity now.

I started following the Jays in 1989 and the first game I ever watched on TV was a terrific comeback in Fenway on June 4.  Down 10-0 after 6, they came back to win 13-11!  That sold 11-year-old me on baseball for good, but that team didn't even make it to a lasting .500 until mid-August.  I'd also note that the 2015 Jays didn't hit .500 for good until July 29.  Lots of time yet in 2017 and no need to lose faith.  But yeah, it would be nice if they could start winning a few, ASAMFP.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#340651) #
To win 90 games this year, the Jays will need to go 89-64 (.582) the rest of the way. That's roughly a 94-95 win pace.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#340652) #
Conversely, had the Jays started the season 8-1, they would have had to go 82-71 (.536) the rest of the way to reach 90 wins -- roughly an 87-win pace.

It's interesting what a difference a hot or a cold start can make.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#340653) #
I was thinking that San Diego with 3 rule V picks on their roster had the 2018 #1 pick locked down - I may have to start paying attention to the 2018 prospects.

John Gibbons must be happy he signed that contract - he could have a nice 2 1/2 years paid vacation.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#340654) #
I agree with Mike Green, I was surprised when Tulo did not break for home. My only thought was that a contact play might have been on but it looked as though Britton had a shot to field the ball with his momentum taking him into the runner. Once the ball was by him it was too late.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#340655) #
There is a case to be made for sending Tulo, but there was a very high probability that on that particular ground ball, with the shortstop in, Tulo would have been thrown out (with the possibility of a home plate collision occurring on the play).
[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#340656) #
Everyone, I think the slow start is my fault, and for that I apologize. I usually watch a baseball movie in late March, to coincide with my birthday and the start of the season. This year I haven't gotten around to it, although I hope to change that today, as I have dug out my Bull Durham DVD. Not sure if I will get to it this afternoon or tonight, so not sure if I can help the team in time for tonight's game, but I will try my best.

Again, my apologies. I may also fire up Eight Men Out and Field of Dreams to counteract the 'season hasn't started yet' vibes that have built up over the past couple of weeks.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#340657) #
Chris Coughlan is on his way to TO. Donaldson will go on the DL. Will Josh be back after ten days? Maybe not, it looked like a significant strain yesterday.

Having had several calf injuries myself I know calf injuries are tricky, even when you feel better it needs another week or two before you can run. The medical care that Josh will get will be better than my self treatment but I would guess he won't be back for closer to three weeks.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#340659) #
so someone will need to be DFA for Coghlan? Ceciliani maybe?
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#340660) #
Johnny was, that was the same game that did it for me too.  I was listening to a fuzzy radio broadcast because I was stoked - for the first time - on a pitching prospect, Alex Sanchez.  Terrible MLB debut for the kid who flamed out pretty much immediately.  No idea why I was still listening (Bbref had the Sox chance of winning the game at 100% in the 7th inning) - but after the Jays scored 2 in the 7th and 4 in the 8th, I was a believer.  Whitt hit the go-ahead grand slam in the 9th, Henke blew the save, and when the 'young' rookie Junior Felix - who was already greying at this point - hit the go-ahead homer in the 12th, I lost my mind.

That's probably the most fun I've ever had following a regular season game.  So many good stories that year - Cito turning the team around, Felix hitting with power and flying around the bases, McGriff flashing his light tower power, and gamers like Gruber, Stieb, Key and Henke leading the charge to come back from a 12-24 start.  Awesome memories. 

[ Reply to This ]
Sal - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#340661) #
Silver lining is that management will probably have a clear picture of the team's direction moving forward. The worst thing that can happen is having an aging team that kind of looks competitive because it is trailing the second wild card spot by 5 games on July 31 only to crash completely in August. I have seen that a few times already in the past 20 years. With JD's injury, the struggling offense will be handicapped further for a while which means the team is very unlikely to be able to even start recovering from the 1-8 start any time soon.

[ Reply to This ]
Dr. Zarco - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#340662) #
It's really pretty crazy how bad this offense has been. Many were predicting an average to subpar offense, a far cry from the '15 offense, but this is pretty much a bad dream (SSS applies, of course):

Team rank in MLB
bAVG-Last
Runs-Last
Hits-Last
2B-T15 (wahoo!)
3B-T22, also last, with 0
HR-Last with 4. 2 players have more, 6 more have 4.
Total bases-Last
RBI-29th (the Pirates have 7 runs without an RBI)
OBP-Last
SLG-Last
OPS-Last, by a country mile, at .548! This is likely playing a team entirely of Ryan Goins. In a slump. His career OPS is .594.

Unfathomable start.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#340663) #
As mentioned this is a chance to see what really is here. If a big crash was coming better in April than August. It'll be interesting to see where it is at in a month. If guys like Smoak and Carrera are still having a sub 60 OPS+ then it'll be easy to cut bait on them and see what some kids have. If it is Travis and Pillar sub 60 then the Jays can't do much as they are key to the teams future.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#340664) #
A story only tangentially related to baseball.  My first family doctor, Joe Greenberg, died on Monday at 94 and 1/2.  Dr. Joe loved sports.  About 5 years ago, I saw him in his office as he was winding down his practice and he showed me a clipping from an armed forces newspaper in Nova Scotia where Dr. Joe was stationed while a member of the RCAF.  The article was a game report- Joe was described as "the slugging catcher who hit two doubles and a triple", but no relation to Hank.  His love of sports, including baseball, continued the rest of his life.  Among other things, he was the team doctor for the Toronto Maple Leafs baseball team.

For many of us, baseball is a thread that runs through our lives and sustains us.  It's a good thing to remember when the home nine is struggling.  
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#340665) #
Donaldson will go on the DL.

And miss more games in a season than in any of the past 4 years, and perhaps even more than in the past 4 years combined. This introduces the legitimate worry that he may be human.

[ Reply to This ]
cybercavalier - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#340666) #
This introduces the legitimate worry that he may be human.

Human also looks at positives: the Jays lineup today could be against LHSP Miley

2B Travis
RF Bautista
DH Morales
1B Smoak
SS Tulo
LF  Pearce
C Martin
CF Pillar
3B Barney

or similar kind in the sense that the Jays can their meaningful RHBs in one lineup.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#340667) #
OPS-Last, by a country mile, at .548! This is likely playing a team entirely of Ryan Goins. In a slump. His career OPS is .594.

Unfathomable start.

And that was WITH Donaldson, who's OPSing about 1.030. And he's going on the DL.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#340668) #
I'm with Sal on this one. I've mentally been preparing for a time when the Jays would look old with this core (I was hoping it was next year if it happened at all), and would much rather have the team completely bottom out than to have them hang around close enough to not be out of it but not close enough to actually be in it. If they are bad from start to finish, then it will be a lot easier as a fan to digest and a lot easier for management to sell a retool.

Of course, the ideal situation would be to repeat 1989 and make a huge run, but with Donaldson hurt, a lack of depth overall, and an aging roster, I'm not holding my breath after a 1-8 start.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#340669) #
But will fans come out to see a poorly-performing team in 2017? Lower revenues will affect the organization's ability to field a competitive team in future seasons.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#340671) #
Dexter Fowler has an OPS of .475 and Encarnacion is OPSing .571.

Who did they miss who could have saved this team?

[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#340672) #
Juan Graterol DFA'ed... no big deal.
[ Reply to This ]
Sal - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#340673) #
'But will fans come out to see a poorly-performing team in 2017? Lower revenues will affect the organization's ability to field a competitive team in future seasons.'

No, I think we'll go back to low attendance and TV ratings for a couple of years at least. However, this is expected and is part of most baseball teams' life cycle. This team was unlikely to remain competitive beyond 2017 given their age, it just seems that their window ended a year earlier.
[ Reply to This ]
Dr. Zarco - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#340674) #
A hit! With RISP! Wow!
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#340677) #
Miley's been throwing curveball after curveball to everyone except Smoak.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#340678) #
Travis looks totally lost, swinging at everything.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#340679) #
It's clear we should have added Jay Bruce. He has as many home runs all the Blue Jays put together, at least until Smoak hit one last inning.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#340680) #
greenfrog, if the Jays are out of it for much of the year, then yes attendance and overall revenue will inevitably drop. Unlike with hockey and maybe basketball, Toronto fans are largely bandwagon driven with baseball. If they are good, the fans will show up. If not, it will be 25k a night. That's just the reality of this market with this sport. I guess we will see if 2015/16 changed things if the Jays continue to struggle and the NBA/NHL playoffs are over. If fans are still packing the stadium while the Jays are bottoming out, then I'd be shocked, but I guess we'll wait and see.

In terms of your bigger point ("lower revenues will affect the organization's ability to field a competitive team in future seasons"), there's not much that can be done about that. This regime inherited an old team with a very small window. The decline post-2016 was inevitable, it was just a matter of when. Clearly the hope was to avoid the decline until after 2018 (potentially the post-Donaldson period where a retool/rebuild was going to happen regardless if they lost him), but we might be seeing the decline a lot sooner than anticipated. Can't really do anything about that except pivot when necessary. The direction of the team looks pretty fluid, and if the struggles continue, they'll have to adjust.

Chances are Shapiro was going to reboot when he was hired initially but then they went on the huge 2nd half run and he saw the team's win curve in 2016 at a pretty good spot so he went for it without sacrificing any youth to get there. He tried to do it again in 2017 and (if two weeks are any indication) it may have been a futile effort. If the team continues to play poorly, then Shapiro will likely change direction to what he may have had in mind in August 2015.

The fans will leave initially, but they'll be back if/when things are built back up again. That's the least of the team's worries right now.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#340681) #
I assume Goins will get a game tomorrow, with Travis sitting.

I wonder if the Baltimore's got into Aaron's head. He looked to be a mixture of frustrated and confused out there.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#340682) #
Someone convince me the team won't go 1-161.
[ Reply to This ]
Dr. Zarco - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#340683) #
A run seems nearly impossible at this point. Now 1-6 RISP, yet season RISP average goes up!
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#340684) #
Dale Scott's health is more important than the outcome of this game.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#340685) #
So. The Jays are now 0-8 in games decided by one or two runs. I mean, I expect the Jays to be bad in close games because that's apparently a law of physics now, but you'd think they could fluke into some win now and then. How bad can this get?
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Friday, April 14 2017 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#340686) #
You do realize that a loss is a loss either by 1 run, 2 runs or 10 runs. The team has bigger issues than losing by 1 or 2 runs, like getting a lead, maintaining a lead, and just winning in general. Who cares how many 1 run games they lose? Are we going to start tracking how many day games they lose next? I'm not trying to be rude, but you post over and over every time there is a one run loss. We get it, just in case you weren't sure or if nobody else has noticed.
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#340687) #
Well, fair to say they were due for a loss. They couldn't be expected to maintain that scorching 18 win game pace forever.
[ Reply to This ]
Petey Baseball - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:30 AM EDT (#340688) #
In the Gibbons 2.0 era, there's been two eleven game win streaks. The memory of those and the 20-6 August in '15 are all fresh, and keeping my hope alive. It's starting to look like we'll need one or two of stretches like that to get within striking distance.

I wasn't old enough to remember the '87 revival. Was 12-24 this glum?
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:51 AM EDT (#340689) #
One telling stat from last night's game: the Jays had 0 walks and 15 strikeouts (they struck out multiple times against of the O's pitchers, including eight times against Miley in 6 IP). That's an indication of just how poorly the team is hitting right now.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#340690) #
The Jays are scoring 2.8 runs per game, the worst in MLB. The team slash line is 199/273/288.

On the defensive side of things, they are allowing 4.2 runs per game, right around the MLB average.

They have hit 5 HR and given up 14.

Bright spots are hard to see. At least Donaldson was hitting before he was DL'd.

What about Pillar's new found patience? He's on pace to walk fewer times than in the past two seasons. The 18MM rightfielder is slugging under .200. The team's big FA signing has an OPS+ of 1 (what does that even mean?). No one on the active roster has hit as many homeruns as Bumgarner did on opening day. When Travis and Martin simply get a hit, the dugout goes crazy. Times are not good.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#340691) #
I was at the game last night and have some observations to share. First off, Dale Scott.

Dale Scott's health is more important than the outcome of this game.

Absolutely.  I don't know what was shown on TV, but I saw him get hit, turn facing us on the first base side of the park, put his hand to his chest with an expression somewhere between great pain and terror, and then crumple to the ground. I was not surprised at all when EMS were called and he was very gingerly removed on a stretcher.  It's described as a concussion which will put him out for a few days at least, and if that is the extent of it, I will be glad for him. 

The energy level of the crowd was pretty good despite the club's struggles.  In my section, one eager fan bellowed out at full volume, "Go Morales", when Kendrys took a 2-2 pitch to run the count full, and then at the same volume, the usual expletive uttered after when striking one's thumb with a hammer, when Kendrys struck out on the next pitch.  The club has been hitting its thumb with a hammer a lot early in the season, so I will confess to some vicarious satisfaction at the verbal release of tension.

Ryan Goins, pinch-hitter?  I guess Gibbons didn't want to get Coghlan into the game as a pinch-hitter in his first major league PA.  I doubt that Goins is a better hitter than Barney against a RHP when you  factor in the pinch-hitter penalty.  He certainly isn't statistically.  Anyways, it worked.  It was nice to see some squarely hit balls, particularly at the end of the game.  For what it's worth, Russell Martin's struggles this April do not remind me of his struggles of last April.  He is swinging at the right pitches, and hitting the ball squarely a fair bit. 

Steve Pearce ought not to be in left-field on a regular basis.  He's not Chris Colabello out there, but too close for my fragile soul to bear.  A Coghlan/Barney platoon or Coghlan/Pearce platoon in left-field could work after Donaldson comes back. 

Finally, my spouse came up (as usual) with a brilliant suggestion for the club's troubles.  A sacrifice.  Not a bunt nor a seasonal paschal lamb.  Nope.  The beards!  They must go.  All of them.  From the shaggy (Devon Travis and Jason Grilli) to the coiffed (Russell Martin and Jose Bautista).  It's up to Martin and Bautista to show some facial leadership. Now, take out the razors and start showing us the good faces before it is too late.


[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#340692) #
Watching Kim and Seth Smith in the corner OF spots for the Orioles last night did bring it home to me.  The O's have been quite successful over the last 6 years- one of the things that the Duquette/Showalter team has done well is filling in the gaps between the complete players (Machado, Jones, Chris Davis) with good role players.  Almost no one had the O's as one of the top 3 teams in the league, but they look pretty good to me.

I hadn't appreciated until last night that Davis is a pretty good baserunner, in addition to being a beast at the plate and good with the glove.  He's not slow and he has pretty good instincts.  He is only a year younger than Troy Tulowitzki, and conventional wisdom would have him as less valuable on the basepaths, but that isn't the case at all. 

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#340693) #
All losing streaks are bad, panicky and depressing. The timing of this losing streak makes it more of that.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#340694) #
There's obviously some luck involved but Pearce, Martin, Travis and Bautista have been terrible.

Pillar leads the team in hits and has 1 walk and 4 strikeouts. That's bearable.
Pearce probably needs to see more lefties less righties for a while.
Carrera was always the weak half of the left field platoon. They really could use a big left handed bat there.

I think Goins'hit was against Darren O'Day, a sidearmer.



[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#340695) #
In the Gibbons 2.0 era, there's been two eleven game win streaks. The memory of those and the 20-6 August in '15 are all fresh, and keeping my hope alive. It's starting to look like we'll need one or two of stretches like that to get within striking distance.

Three, actually. They had one in 2013 and two different ones in 2015. They also had a nine gamer in 2014. It's getting to the point where they'll have to go on one of those or a 12-3 run or something to make up for this. Which they can, and actually at some point probably will go on a run like that, but this 1-9 means they've used up all their really bad runs. Another 1-9 or 2-11 during the season and it's not recoverable.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#340696) #
In regards to attendance, it's worth noting that you can't fit 20k in the Air Canada Center on a good day, so if the Blue Jays attendance falls to around 20k/game that still puts it around even from a popularity standpoint. Especially when you consider that they Jays also have around twice as many home games to fill.

In regards to the one or two runs losses, it seems pretty simple to me. On most nights, we are getting average to above average to excellent pitching, and on nearly all nights we're getting atrocious hitting (where four runs last night felt like some kind of huge success). More often than not that will lead to losses by small numbers.

I guess it might be bad luck that our four couldn't line up with the oppositions two from the other night, and that our eight lined up with a ten and not anything else, but so it goes.

On a side note, I think our team needs a slap hitter who doesn't strike out. If I were GM I'd try to trade for Ichiro, but it'll never happen.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#340697) #
The Jays are scoring 2.8 runs per game, the worst in MLB. The team slash line is 199/273/288

And that's what makes everything the more frustrating. Of the 9 games they've lost, 8 have been by 2 runs or fewer. If their hitting was just sort-of bad, run of the mill bad rather than unseemly, they would have won quite a few of those. Even if they were slashing 225/300/370 let's say, they're probably 4-6 now or 5-5 and it doesn't feel so dire. It's taken an historically bad, almost inexplicably bad, offense these first 10 games to get to this point. It's going to turn but they're going to be digging out of this start for a long time.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#340698) #
Btw, for those looking for silver linings: the 2016 Chicago Cubs went 1-9 from June 30 to July 9. So it can happen to any team.
[ Reply to This ]
johnny was - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#340699) #
Curiosity drove me to look it up...  The 1988 Baltimore Orioles, a truly awful team despite Cal Ripken Jr. and Eddie Murray, fell to 1-23 by the first of May.  To provide symmetry for their terrible start in April, they finished the season with 21 losses over their last 29 games.  Being last in runs scored and runs allowed will do that.  They rebounded big time the following year, finishing just two games behind the Jays in the AL East, but they kind of blew their number pick in the '89 draft on Ben McDonald, who did Erik Bedard his way through a few decent years, letting some guy out of Auburn named Frank Thomas fall to the White Sox at number 7.

As for us in the here and now, I do like the idea of having the players shave their beards.  If they wanted to double down, everyone could go with high socks for awhile, too.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#340700) #
In the microcosm of what's been going on with the offense dept.:

Bautista career wRC+: 131
Bautista 2017 wRC+: 28

Martin career wRC+: 106
Martin 2017 wRC+: 19

Pearce career wRC+: 109
Pearce 2017 wRC+: -7

Travis career wRC+: 110
Travis 2017 wRC+: -37
[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#340701) #
Well... here's our line-up for today. Carrera, Coghlan, Salty, and Goins are in; Pillar and Carrera and hitting 1-2.

CF Pillar / LF Carrera / RF Bautista / DH Morales / SS Tulowitzki / 1B Smoak / 3B Coghlan / C Salty / 2B Goins

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#340703) #
I wasn't old enough to remember the '87 revival. Was 12-24 this glum?

1989 was the 12-24 start ....

Pre-internet?  Nah, nothing gets glummer than a bunch of fans on the internet... than again, I was fifteen, so I was certain that we'd turn things around.  I was also certain that Tom Lawless and Bob Brenly were high quality bench players, so what did I know ...
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#340705) #
1989 was the 12-24 start ....

I wonder what Cito's doing these days...
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#340706) #
And I wonder if they have regret over extending Gibbons.
At least he's still 22 games over .500 career wise.

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#340707) #
If we are going to struggle like this, I think Gibby may be a good man for the task, he's so even-keeled. 
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#340708) #
Gibbons isn't going anywhere. But I could see Brooks Jacoby taking the blame, which maybe he should.

Like the lineup today. Why not? Might as well give some fresh blood a chance. Travis needs a day off more than anyone. He's been the worst of the bunch I think, considering that we were expecting him to hit around 300 otherwise.

Martin's been bad. But I would be pumped if we got 250 out of him.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#340710) #
".... I wonder if they have regret over extending Gibbons..."

The contract doesn't prevent the Jays from firing Gibbons any time they want to fire him.  The only regret would be the financial cost, since the money is guaranteed, but this team can afford it.  The money shouldn't stop the Jays from firing the manager if they think it will help the team.  In fact, it's standard practice for many organizations to fire the manager if they feel that their team is under-performing at the start of a season.  The manager is always the perfect sacrificial lamb.  Firing the manager creates the appearance of action.  It creates some irrational hope among the fans.  It provides a scapegoat, someone to blame for the losses.

In my personal opinion, Gibbons is not responsible for the under-performance of his hitters.  Players like Bautista and Travis and Pearce have been excellent hitters for years, and no reasonable person could have expected them to hit so badly this month, so why shouldn't Gibbons have given them tons of playing time this year too?  His style of calm restraint is probably appropriate for a veteran team.  You don't want a hyper-active manager who barks orders and gives emotional speeches and puts added pressure on players who are already putting huge amounts of pressure on themselves. 

Having said that, I don't think the manager makes a huge difference to a team's performance, and Gibbons is definitely vulnerable as the only key Jays figure who can be easily jettisoned and replaced.  Replacing the manager would be a "Hail Mary" gambit, but who knows, it might even have a positive impact.  But what might really prevent the Jays from firing Gibbons is the sheer embarrassment of giving him a big contract extension and then quickly firing him.  It would be embarrassing for Shapiro and Atkins to reverse their decision on Gibbons so dramatically and so abruptly.  It's the embarrassment, not the money, that might prevent the Jays from sacking the manager.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#340711) #
But I could see Brooks Jacoby taking the blame, which maybe he should.

When veteran players are hitting in the 100s, I think all the blame rests with them. Looking to blame a third party seems weak.

[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#340712) #
It's possible the FO might just like Gibbons. They likely knew going in that it was an older team with a small window, and that decline in 2017 was at least possible. They would not have extended him when they didn't have to if they felt that a direction change would have necessitated a new manager. I think the FO might be fine with Gibby keeping his job even if/when the team starts to trade vets and take a step back. Of course they could always fire him and eat up the rest of his remaining salary if they wanted a manager change, but then the unnecessary extension would have made no sense.

Gibbons seems like a moldable manager. For example, when they call up Tellez, Gibbons would probably play him everyday. Whereas someone like Cito would have platooned him and batted him 9th. I think, aside from Gibby's usual weaknesses as a manager, they could probably get away with him in the rebuilding stage (if they decide to go that route). His biggest weakness is bullpen usage, and if the team is rebuilding, then that won't really matter compared to things like playing younger talent and the development of that younger talent. The coaching staff (hitting coach, pitching coach, etc) is more important in that capacity than Gibbons is.

The team's start is definitely not Gibby's fault. His managerial decisions have been fine for the most part. The team just isn't hitting.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#340713) #
Maybe it's weak. But when every hitter on the team except Donaldson looks somewhere between terrible to mediocre, including younger guys like Travis you gotta wonder if some outside help is needed.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#340714) #
Okay maybe Cito for hitting coach....
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#340715) #
The O's are really pushing their luck with Asher. If I were Showalter, I would be very tempted to take the six shutout innings as an unexpected gift and turn it over to the 'pen.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#340716) #
Here is Mark Shapiro's response to the Jays losing 9 of their first 10 games:

"It's not a time you get external help. There may be a time and a place when you start to think about that, but you're not going to replace five hitters."

My question: which 5 hitters was he talking about?  Every hitter except Josh Donaldson and Darwin Barney has been hitting badly.  That means 11 hitters.  Maybe you exempt a couple of bench players like Salty and Goins, since they're not expected to hit.  That still leaves 9 hitters who aren't hitting.  Yet Shapiro seems only concerned about 5 of those 9 hitters. Which ones?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#340717) #
I doubt he means exactly five.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#340718) #
Shapiro probably just picked a random number. I don't think he meant five players in particular. Just picking a number to emphasize his point.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#340719) #
Well, according to Baseball reference WAR ratings:

Donaldson .5 WAR
Barney 0.4 WAR
Tulo 0.2. WAR
Martin, Smoak, Pillar and Morales have all have 0.1 WAR.
Salty doesn't play enough to warrant a rating. Same for Goins.

That leaves Pearce, Bautista, Travis and Carrera, but I guess Martin is included here since he hasn't contributed with the bat.


[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#340720) #
How about that. This nightmare just won't end.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#340721) #
When scoring one run seems like a miracle you can't complain much about luck.

But if that ball doesn't hit Osuna's leg it's an automatic out and we can finally enjoy a second win.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#340722) #
That felt like winning the world series.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#340723) #
In response to Scottt:  some of those WAR numbers (Tulo, Martin, Pillar) are primarily for their defense.  They're still not hitting.

In any event, I was being somewhat facetious in my question, since it's probably true that Shapiro was just picking a random number.  Just wanted to point out that he was under-estimating the extent of the problem.  Nobody except Donaldson and Barney has been hitting, and today's game is just yet another example.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#340724) #
There's exactly 5 guys with more than 10 plate appearances batting under .200.
It's not like replacing a guy hitting .250 for a guy hitting .300 would fix the offense.

[ Reply to This ]
James W - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#340725) #
That felt like winning the world series.

You forgot to update the 1-run standings. Or do those only matter when Toronto loses?
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#340726) #
Ok, now we can enjoy our second win. Time for an 11 game winning streak.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#340727) #
Morales is now hitting .244/.340/.439 and is pretty much responsible for the two Jays wins this season (grand slam vs. Tampa and the walk off today).
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#340728) #
Morales boosts his OPS up to .779 with that HR today.  He's not one of the Shapiro Five.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#340729) #
You forgot to update the 1-run standings. Or do those only matter when Toronto loses?

Oh I always update them and unfortunately they always matter. 1-4 now. Maybe after a decade+ the worm is starting to turn...
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#340730) #
Baby steps. Try to get to .500 by the end of May, and then see what happens. It won't be easy especially if Donaldson has to miss time, but climbing out of a 1-9 hole in any situation won't be easy.

Where the Jays are in June/July is going to determine a lot of things.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#340731) #
Just to finish the thought about the Jays hitters: 

Tulo and Smoak are relatively close to an acceptable level of hitting, and they've at least been making contact and hitting the ball hard.  Pillar has reduced his strikeouts and seems to have a slightly better approach, although he has zero power.  The ones who seem completely lost at the plate are Bautista, Pearce, Travis, Martin and Carrera.  That's exactly five.  The odds are that most of them will turn it around at some point.  Let's hope it sooner, rather than later.
[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#340732) #
Buck Showalter did it again. Brad Brach (1 hit allowed in 6 innings) was standing in the bullpen watching because the Orioles had a tie on the road. The Orioles had one of their worst pitchers in the game instead, and he gave up a walkoff home run. Sounds awfully familiar.

That pitch to Morales looked like it was going to hang there for as long as it took to get clobbered.
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#340733) #
It would have been Brach's third appearance in a row, so maybe that contributed. But it does seem like a thing with Buck. Not using Britton in the wild card game was probably one of the worst managing decisions I've ever seen.
[ Reply to This ]
James W - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#340734) #
Brach had pitched the last two days, but had 4 days off before that. I figured Britton was definitely getting the day off, but expected the same for Brach and O'Day.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#340735) #
Baby steps. Try to get to .500 by the end of May, and then see what happens.

Hey, the 1989 Jays didn't climb back to .500 until July 25, and they didn't climb above .500 for another two weeks after that.

One of the things that was very different about 1989 - this is the bad news - is that none of the other teams in the 1989 AL East were even slightly impressive. The 1989 Jays fell 10 games off the lead just once, on 5 July and at that point only one team in the division had a winning record. And no one was taking the 1989 Orioles too seriously.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#340736) #
That was a good idea, but Coghlan went 0 for 2, Goins went 0 for 3, Salty went 0 for 3 and Carrera went 1 for 3.
It's really tempting to go with Carrera and Smoak against a right handed starter right now.

[ Reply to This ]
CeeBee - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#340737) #
When does Dwight Smith Jr. enter the picture as a possible solution in left field? Seems to be off to a solid start in Buffalo.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Saturday, April 15 2017 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#340741) #
Smith will have to hit near .300 for at least 3 months before he will be taken seriously imo. Keep an eye on Ian Parmley.

Alford is really tearing it up in NH and could come more quickly than we thought but I see him as a RF

Hopefully Dalton Pompey will be an OF candidate as well but it may take awhile.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#340743) #
You won't see Tellez, Smith or any prospect unless it's to cover an injury and even then, they would have to be really hot.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#340744) #
Ironically, the Bison are off to a 7-2 start because of great starting pitching. And that's mostly without Lawrence who instead contributed to the Blue Jays misery. Ah, baseball.

3 starters have gone twice. House has an ERA of 0.77, Latos has an ERA of 1.00 and Grube is at 2.45.
Lawrence and Oberholtzer had one start each without giving away any runs. Dermody wasn't great in his spot start. Surprisingly, Bolsinger isn't in the rotation and has only made 5 outs on the year.

Meanwhile, Smith and Montsalve had their first AAA homeruns, Ohlmand added one and Leblebijian had his 3rd of the year. Montsalve was activated when the Jays designated Graterol for assignement (preferring to hold onto Cecilliani,) Graterol had 6 hits in 14 atbats and will likely find a home somewhere.
Tellez, Smith and Holman scored 7 runs.



[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#340745) #
Meanwhile in AA, Alford is hitting for .454, McBroom is hitting .333 with 3 doubles, Davis 304, Fields .280 with 2 doubles and McGuire .227 with 2 homeruns.

Yep, the season is not even 2 weeks old.

[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#340746) #
Aaron Sanchez to the DL with a blister. Matt Dermody recalled.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#340747) #
Salty has been a replacement level player since 2014, and that is without accounting for pitch-framing.   The club does have a decent back-up plan now, with a McGuire/Maile platoon likely to be able to provide good defence and some offensive contribution (just in case). 

McGuire's 2 homers in the first 2 weeks of the season are 1/3 of his career minor league output.  He just turned 22 and is repeating double A, so developing power would not be a shock.

[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#340750) #
If Sanchez's blister isn't too serious, he may only miss one start thanks to the new 10-day DL. But the Jays will likely need a 'spot start' from someone in the next 10 days, likely on Thursday afternoon in Boston or Monday April 24th in Anaheim. Sanchez is eligible to return from the DL on April 25th, which happens to line up with a scheduled start for him in St. Louis.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#340751) #
I wonder if Latos gets the spot start?  He looked pretty good in his last Buffalo start.  He hasn't been giving up very many hits this season, although he is still walking too many batters.

But for reasons of the 40-man roster and options, it might be easier to give the start to Lawrence.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#340752) #
Today's lineup has Carrera in RF, Pearce in LF, Bautista at DH, Morales at 1B, and Goins at 2B (Travis out again). If you told me that Pillar and Carrera would be batting 1 and 2 in the lineup in the 2nd week of the season, I would have laughed at you, but here we are. Also, Barney should really be playing over Goins if they are going to bench Travis. Barney is a better hitter overall, and probably just as effective against RHP despite not being good against them typically. Gibbons seems to love certain replacement level/bad players a little too much (Goins, Zeke, Navarro).
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#340753) #
Yeah, I'm puzzled by the decision to give Goins two consecutive starts, and I agree that Barney is a better hitter than Goins, but the real question is whether it's the right way to fix Travis. The Jays need to get Travis back to his normal production level if they have any hope for this season. Wouldn't it be better to have him battling his way out of the slump, rather than stewing on the bench?

I'm assuming that there's no health issue in the Travis decision today. Travis has told the media that he is fine.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#340754) #
It's a bit strange to bench Travis for two days.  I understand giving him a day off- he looked bad in his first 3 PAs against Miley before getting the hit off Britton.  The second day sends a different message.

Travis is 26 and has been a good hitter over his career.  If he's not healthy, then he should be on the DL, but otherwise, you've just got to let him work out of it. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#340755) #
Coke to CF.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#340758) #
Zach Britton to the DL with left foream soreness.  I am not totally surprised.  He was really pushing it on Friday night. 
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#340759) #
I do like the decision to put Bautista at DH today. Protect his health by giving him occasional days off the turf, and let him focus entirely on hitting today to see if he can get out of his slump.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#340762) #
Bautista is pressing.  He would normally have laid off that 2-2 slider about a foot off the plate. 
[ Reply to This ]
lexomatic - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#340763) #
With both Happ and Sanchez injured and potentially missing time, the next 2 weeks could be the key to the season. If both starters miss time, and the team continues to not hit, things could fall apart before there's really a chance to get back on track. I hope the team can step back and get some focus and not panic and try too hard.
This season has started with some  terrible luck.
I would consider 500 over the next 10 days to be necessary, but also a success.
This 6th inning has been so ugly.


[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#340764) #
Bautista is pressing, but in many cases he is also laying off too much. He seems to have confidence only in his ability to recognize location and get walks. So he continues to collect walks (7 walks so far in less than 12 games), while failing to do much with the bat.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#340766) #
Maybe time to trade Aaron Sanchez? People in the know, like Rob Fai, who works with the Vancouver Canadians, is 100% sure he does not resign w/ Toronto, rather opting for somewhere closer to home, like both LA teams. Maybe it's time to trade the 4 years of Aaron Sanchez for someone like Chris Archer. Is it possible that the friendship ending between Stroman and Sanchez caused a divide? Team chemistry issues?
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#340767) #
Well, those who said pitching depth was not a priority, you will get to see it first hand if Sanchez and Happ have to miss some time. The offense with or without Donaldson is bad enough, but remove two SP's from this rotation, and you're looking at Latos and Lawrence (or some equivalent of that) getting starts in the bigs.

This season looks like it is going to get really ugly.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#340768) #
Starting to get that 2004 vibe. Shudder.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#340769) #
When Happ left the game due to injury on the same day that Sanchez hit the DL, my first thought was: "I've seen this movie before and don't care to see it again".
[ Reply to This ]
lexomatic - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#340770) #
Left elbow for Happ. Hope he just needs rest. Disaster would be tommy john because he couldn't even be traded.


[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#340771) #
I would seriously consider having Goins pitch the 9th inning rather than needlessly using one of the remaining arms Grilli, Smith, Osuna, or pushing Loup for another 3 outs. I expect the bullpen is going to be heavily used over the next while...
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#340772) #
This is feeling like 2004. Everything going bad, and then injuries compounding the situation.

Also with Happ leaving the game due to elbow soreness on the same day Sanchez was DLed with the blister issue, this reminds me of 2012 when three Jays starters went down with long term injuries in a span of four days. Fun times.

Looks like this core might be past it. It's an old team and I hoped/expected they'd hang in there at least as a wildcard contender this year if the rotation stayed healthy.

[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#340773) #
This season is not going to end well. Injuries, lack of depth, an old roster, and a 2-10 start is not a good combination.

I hate to talk about a fire sale two weeks into the season, but I can't imagine this team righting the ship with injuries to the rotation and their best player. Climbing out of a hole with everyone healthy is one thing, but injuries change everything.

I think Shapiro may have seen this coming, hence not spending much in free agency and kind of letting this core play itself out. They dodged a bullet with Edwin not re-signing, and the guys they did sign can fill spots on the roster inexpensively if/when they decide to rebuild.

This is definitely 2004, mixed with a little 2013. Not good. This might be a direction changing type of season. I always knew it was coming after the trades two years ago, but still hurts to actually see it unravel. I was holding out hope that this core could have given us two more playoff calibre seasons but this start mixed with the injuries is pretty much the death knell. Another reminder that age does not discriminate.
[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#340774) #
Well this is fun.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#340775) #
"....I think Shapiro may have seen this coming, hence not spending much in free agency and kind of letting this core play itself out...."

Let's not allow a new mythology to creep in.  Shapiro made a conscious decision to invest very heavily in his 2017 players.  He has willingly taken on at least $86.5-million in new contract obligations since late in the 2016 season, which he certainly didn't have to do.  (He gave new contracts to Morales, Bautista, Smoak and Pearce, and he traded for Liriano and his $13-million salary.)  If he actually "saw this coming", why did he decide to spend $86.5-million on those five guys, all of whom are over the age of 30?  It doesn't make sense.  So I don't believe he "saw this coming" and I believe the evidence disproves it.

Let's be honest:  Shapiro, like the rest of us, believed the Jays had a good chance at the playoffs this season, and he took steps to improve the team to give them a better chance.

In my view, he didn't go far enough.  He thought it was okay to leave one or two holes in the lineup (LF and/or 1B, depending on the configuration) because he thought everyone else would hit strongly enough to make up the difference.  So far, that hasn't happened.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#340776) #
Pillar's homer came on the 5th pitch in a tow in the middle quadrant according to Gameday- down 11-2 in the 9th. Say this for Nuno, he was determined to not walk Pillar.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#340777) #
Morales is on a pretty good contract. Pearce and Smoak are signed for 2 years on relatively cheap contracts too. Bautista is basically on a one year contract.  This isn't like the Price contract or anything like that.

Bautista seems to be getting nothing but pitches outside and he hasn't figured out what to do with those.
It's pretty hard to pull a pitch on the outside corner, especially a breaking ball. So, he keeps walking and striking out. 6 walks, 13 strike outs? No a good ratio.

[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#340778) #
China, the team did not invest heavily into older players. They gave older players value-driven, and reasonable short-term contracts. The only moves that were made with any long-term implications were the ones that landed prospects (Liriano trade, Guirrel signing). The signings this winter, and the winter prior to that, made any sort of shift in team direction very easy to pull off. For example, if the Jays wanted to rebuild today, they could do it pretty easily. That would not have been the case if they doubled down on bigger, long-term contracts instead of the shorter, cheaper ones.

Shapiro tried to play both sides. He wanted to build up the farm system and maintain a level of competitiveness on the big league level at the same time. When I say he saw this coming, I mean he prepared for it. Hell, it was rumored that Rogers stepped in regarding bringing Bautista back when it seemed the FO were comfortable getting the draft pick. I don't think Shapiro or Atkins had any delusions that what we are seeing today wasn't at least a possibility heading into the season. They set the team up pretty nicely to either contend or rebuild depending on team performance. Unfortunately we might be seeing the latter, but it is what it is.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#340779) #
They dodged a bullet with Edwin not re-signing

Back in the off season I was actually pretty relieved he turned down that 4 for $80M offer. The way things are turning out I'm more glad now.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#340780) #
This is why I wanted the Jays to pursue Rich Hill this off-season (of course, Hill has had his own blister issues this spring).

I always assume a team will need eight starting pitchers, more or less, to get through the season. Perhaps the Jays' fortunate run of starting pitcher health last season blinded them to this reality.
[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#340781) #

Hypothesis: the August-September 2015 Jays somehow made a deal with the Baseball Gods to borrow wins from the future. And now it's payback time. It's been ugly, and it might be about to get even uglier. Sure, a team is never as bad as it appears to be when it is slumping, but whoa.

I always assume a team will need eight starting pitchers, more or less, to get through the season.

Entirely true, but it's really hard to get players who are good enough to start to be starting pitchers 6, 7, and 8 - other teams are still looking for starting pitchers 5, 4, and maybe even 3, and are therefore offering major league jobs. Pitchers such as Bolsinger and Latos are normally really all that are available, unless the farm system is bursting with pitching.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#340782) #
True, but the Jays don't have any minor-league pitchers ready to step into the rotation in 2017, and they're losing a couple of arms to free agency after this season (Liriano, Estrada). Adding someone like Hill would have bolstered the rotation for this year and beyond -- assuming that Hill stays healthy-ish, which is a big if. And he would have been a decent trade asset had a rebuilding phase occurred (which is looking increasingly likely). To entice Hill, the Jays could have guaranteed him a rotation spot and put Liriano in the 'pen until an injury occurred.

The reality, though, is that Rogers didn't give the front office enough resources to address the team's other needs and acquire high-quality starting pitching depth like Hill, even if Shapiro and Atkins had been inclined to pursue this strategy.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#340783) #
April and May are always the evaluation months for the Season. Too much can change with smaller sample sizes and we are just two weeks in. Blisters are are a days or weeks kind of thing. Elbows are months to many months kind of thing. One decision forthcoming will be whether to stretch out Biagini. The other will be which underachiever to call up. The Hitting will come around once egos aren't involved. They just have to decide when theyv'e hit bottom. I don't think they are there yet.
[ Reply to This ]
King Ryan - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#340784) #
A dozen games was all it took before we are grasping at straws to try to find excuses for this front office's pathetic excuse for an off season. I have to admit that I'm surprised.

I don't read anything into April of course, at a team or player level. But come on, let's try not to embarrass ourselves so much.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#340785) #
SK - I agree that Shapiro did attempt to play both sides and in my view, as I said all offseason, that was the only strategy that wasn't available to them this offseason. As 2016 ended the front office was faced with the following facts: a competitive roster but one that was aging and one that had several clear holes (outfield, 1B and bullpen); making the team a true contender again required the expenditure of significant assists (cash and/or assets); the top prospects are in the lower minors and several years away. I think it was obvious that they had to choose to spend the assets or rip it down. The prospects aren't going to arrive in time to help this core. I think the core was good enough to make that investment but I accept that either choice was defensible. Instead, management (some combination of Rogers and Shapiro) chose to make a token investment in the current roster. The team's not good enough and their aging assets are diminishing in value. Not smart in my view.
[ Reply to This ]
James W - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#340786) #
Assuming Rich Hill were healthy to start the season -- he wasn't, because he's Rich Hill -- where would he have started the season? 6-man rotation, or would Stroman/Sanchez/Liriano(?)/Hill(?) have been sent to Buffalo?
[ Reply to This ]
electric carrot - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#340787) #
Is everybody Shea Hillebranding the season?

It's April batter's box. Actually, just halfway through April.  How about we wait till June 15 before we toss in the white towel?

I'm going to call 2-10 the low for this season.

Everything from here is up.

[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#340788) #
Not me. I'm going to follow every game as I have since 1977. This team isn't that bad - probably a game or two from .500 - either way. My only point was that this wasn't a playoff team from the get go. This start has just made that clear in April rather than August.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#340789) #
The core is not too old to compete, but they're too old to trade for prospects. Really, there isn't much worth trading besides Donaldson.  Sanchez and Stroman could bring back something, but trading them would mean giving up on trying to win for the next 3 or 4 years. Plus, for all we know, all of the low minor prospects could flop.

Let's just hope that Smoak hits enough for someone to pick him up at the deadline.

[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#340790) #
Scott I don't agree. Both Estrada and Happ would have generated a good return in the offseason. But I agree, rebuilds take time. It will be 2 or 3 years before the prospects are able to make a real contribution.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#340791) #
Was Happ, this offseason, much different an asset than Dickey in the offseason when the Jays acquired him? I don't think so. I think Happ would have garnered 2 B prospects.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#340792) #
I doubt if Rogers will allow Shapiro to do a total teardown like Houston or the Cubs or Atlanta recently. It always seems to be Rogers' goal to have the Jays at least semi-competitive so the tv ratings don't completely tank, while also not spending too much. It's kind of boring but that seems to be their plan always.

This left Shapiro trying to walk the middle path - keeping the core together, filling in around the edges with mid-range free agents, and generally trying to keep the team afloat while building up the minor league system.

I think it was obvious that they had to choose to spend the assets or rip it down. The prospects aren't going to arrive in time to help this core. I think the core was good enough to make that investment but I accept that either choice was defensible. Instead, management (some combination of Rogers and Shapiro) chose to make a token investment in the current roster.

Well, there was no way Rogers was going to rip it down after back to back ALCS berths. So that left spending more money to invest in this core and try to win right now. They didn't really do that either, which I have to assume is more Rogers doing than Shapiro's. The most recent Birds All Day podcast was talking about payroll, and how no one could really complain if Rogers spent up to the luxury tax. That's true, but for whatever reason Rogers just doesn't want to go that high. For most intents and purposes now the luxury tax is acting like a hard cap for most teams, so no one could blame Rogers for not going beyond it. But they don't even want to approach it, and if they don't now I don't know when they ever will. So that leaves the Jays with the payroll they have trying to compete with the core they have.


[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#340793) #
BlueJayWay - I agree with all of that. I don't think Rogers has any interest in rebuilds. In fact, I think it's the one thing they will never let happen. 78-84 win teams are their goal. Their great failing as owners. Just because they won't let it happen doesn't mean that they shouldn't be called on it. I can understand putting the blame on Rogers not Shapiro. That's my lean as well but we will never know.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, April 16 2017 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#340794) #
If payroll is always going to be suboptimal in Toronto, why not emulate Cleveland's approach (with the added flexibility of the larger Toronto payroll), which presumably is what Shapiro is doing?

I would be fine with Shapiro's apparently more conservative approach with the major-league roster if he can manage to replicate his predecessor's ability to acquire excellent prospect talent. The organization is still very much enjoying the benefit of AA-era prospects, including Alford, Vlad Jr., Tellez, and Urena.
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#340795) #
Small Sample Size. Everyone would do better to not worry until the hockey and basketball playoffs are done. The Jays are pitching mostly well, hitting mostly poorly but less than 10% of the season done.

Health is a concern but the 10 day dl invites more dl action. And for a sp it generally means any time you plan to skip even one start, dl them.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#340796) #
"A dozen games was all it took before we are grasping at straws to try to find excuses for this front office's pathetic excuse for an off season. I have to admit that I'm surprised."

The Jays' start has nothing to do with the off-season. People are trying to cram their narrative of a cheap Rogers or a conservative Shapiro as the reason for this start but the reality is that if the Jays don't turn it around, it's because the core of the team obtained by previous regimes got old quickly and that too much of the minor league talent close to the majors was traded away. This long-term unsustainability is exactly why Rogers hired Shapiro in the first place.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#340797) #
Nigel, I agree that the post-2016 window required significant expenditure to keep the train moving, but where I disagree is that the core was good enough to justify it. AA's group had a very small window. Once Bautista and Encarnacion stopped being underpaid sluggers that represented enormous surplus value, and the team had to pay them big money in their twilights in order to keep the whole group together, that is when the window effectively shut (so basically, after the 2016 season).

There is only so long a team that trades off prospects and builds around 30-somethings will be able to sustain that level of competitiveness before age finally creeps in and the team bottoms out. Good players in their 30's can and will decline, some times gradually, some times suddenly. This was the concern many had with AA's trade deadline two years ago and last season. The bubble was going to burst eventually, and with the team's best prospects being so far away, it was potentially a long-term mess.

What Shapiro did was the safest and most sensible thing; he played both sides. He signed short-term vets to help the 2017 team, but did not use any of his prospects to acquire that talent. The strategy was sound. If the team could maintain competitiveness at the big league level while giving the farm system time to catch up, then it would have made rebuilding less of a need, or at least pushed it back long enough to where they could have cut the rebuilding time down significantly. Turns out, the team just got old quicker than they hoped, and the prospects are still a few years away, so here we are.

The way this season has turned out is actually making Shapiro's off-season look better, IMO. Morales is having a better season than EE so far. Pearce has been awful, but so has Fowler. The root problem with this team is the age of their core group (Jose, JD, Tulo, Martin, etc). If the SP does not stay healthy enough to compensate like it did last season, then they are toast, and it appears that nightmare is happening. This team was projected to win 85-87 games prior to the season. It was not poorly built. Given the circumstances (poor FA market, limited trade assets), I thought they did a solid job except not finding a LF. Then again, in hindsight, Angel Pagan was not going to help much.

In short, old team got old(er).
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#340799) #
SK - like I said, I think that's a defensible view on where they were at in the offseason. If that was the internal view then the smart thing to do was to sell off some of the declining assets and build again. Probably unacceptable to Rogers but I have no way of knowing that with certainty. I live in Vancouver so I do know something about ownership watching an older team wither by refusing to accept that a rebuild is necessary in order to keep selling tickets. It just makes the hole bigger. Understanding where you are on the success cycle is one of the attributes of good ownership/management.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#340800) #
The results of the last 2 years should have translated into good season ticket sales. Due to walk-on day to day sales and TV viewership would likely have suffered due to the 2-10 record.
We are stuck with the current teams roster and depth. We have only lost 2 games where we were badly beaten and both on Sundays.

I agree with Dave Till about Aug-Oct 2015 winning record being an incredible stroke of luck. Also Texas had us on the ropes and we overcame that. Lastly the SP health in 2016 was more incredible luck.

I will take receiving that very good/bad luck receipt any time. Especially with 2 WCs available.

Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna give us a good chance to win a WS if they can dominate in the playoffs. Especially when we are in receipt of good luck.


[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#340801) #
I have a couple of thoughts about yesterday's game. 

In the third inning, Kevin Pillar came up with one out and nobody on in a scoreless game.  Dylan Bundy by that time had shown that he did not have the pinpoint control he had had in the previous outing.  Pillar ran the count to 3-2.  Bundy gave him a 3-2 fastball right down the middle which Pillar took for strike 3.  It was perfectly obvious that he was guessing on a 3-2 count, and almost surely looking for something off-speed.   I thought that Pillar's approach was indicative that he ought not to be a leadoff hitter.  If you do not think that you can make a reasonable effort to protect the plate against off-speed stuff for a 3-2 pitch (i.e. foul off one most of the time), you are lost in the role.  If you want to guess off-speed on a 3-1 from time to time, fine. Good hitters do that.  But, you absolutely must be prepared to swing at a 3-2 fastball down the middle of the plate, and all the more so with a pitcher who is struggling for control.

Seth Smith's presence on the O's had me wondering- could the Blue Jays have acquired him?  The O's sent Yovani Gallardo and cash to the Mariners for Smith.  Gallardo's salary was $11 million and Smith's was $7 million- let's imagine that the O's sent $2 million to the Mariners to equalize.  Gallardo is not a terrific value at $9 million.  I guess the Blue Jays did not have a 5th starter type lying around, which was what the Mariners wanted.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#340802) #
I didn't hear the last few innings of the game, so there probably was some comment about this. Nonetheless,  Trey Mancini now has 7 homers in 39 major league PAs with a slugging percentage of 1.000.  He's actually hit better against RHP than LHP. 

You can't just let that 25 year old bat sit on the bench 5 days of every 7, while Trumbo and Davis take their licks.  It's a nice problem to have.

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#340805) #
"....Bundy gave him a 3-2 fastball right down the middle which Pillar took for strike 3...."

I watched that pitch in amazement.  It was indeed right down the middle.  The Pillar of 2013 to 2016 would have happily slashed at it.  The new Pillar, it seems, is trying to be more disciplined, but maybe still doesn't have the pitch recognition that he needs.  Gideon Turk (of BP Toronto) has been tracking all of Pillar's swings this season, beginning with the pre-season games, and he is convinced that Pillar is showing far better discipline at the plate.  Unfortunately it's not yet translating into a higher OBP.  It's very early, but so far he has a .313 OBP this year, almost exactly the same as his OBP in the 2015 season. His K rate is slightly improved from past seasons, but his BB rate is as low as ever. And Fangraphs suggests that his swing rates aren't any different from the past.

I remain optimistic about Pillar, and it's clear that he is TRYING to be more disciplined at the plate, but it's just not clear if it will translate into improved results.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#340806) #
"....What Shapiro did was the safest and most sensible thing; he played both sides...."

It was safe and sensible if his goals were self-preservation and risk-aversion.  It was safe if he wanted to fudge his strategic goals, keep his bosses happy, spend only a small portion of the increased revenue, allow the owners to pocket most of the increased profits, create the appearance of prudence, and avoid any risky gambits that might get him in trouble with the bosses.

It wasn't necessarily safe and sensible in terms of the Jays performance this season.  Playing both sides is a good strategy for a careerist, for a salaried employee, but not necessarily for an entrepreneur or an innovator.  I would have liked to see Shapiro take some risks and push harder to assemble the best possible lineup.  (That's not to imply that I'm blaming Shapiro for the losses this season.  If we need scapegoats, we know which hitters are under-performing.)

It's true that the Jays have lost a lot of one-run and two-run games this season.   One interpretation (which I happen to disagree with) is that it's the fault of the manager when a team loses a lot of close games.  An alternative interpretation of those narrow losses would be: the team's hitting was not quite good enough to exploit the team's excellent pitching in several games this year, and therefore the acquisition of another couple of hitters might have been enough to produce a few more runs and a few more wins, and the team could be closer to a .500 record at this point.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#340807) #
the team did not invest heavily into older players.

I'm still not convinced the Morales deal was a good one, and given the way the market played out, he (or a similar talent) could have been had for less.  We'll see at the end of the year which aging DH was the better value - I just don't love bat-only guys who's bat is not at the elite level - at least EE has an elite ceiling. 

I was fine with 'the middle path' - just not Rogers reluctance to spend a bit more on it.  I loved AA's aggressiveness, but he certainly did go 'all-in' on this core, and it is indeed his core that is dragging the team down right now.  In particular, Norris and Boyd would be nice to have back.  

I expect plenty of regression for guys like Tulo, Jose and Martin - it's far too early, and too easy, to assume that age has made these players fall over the cliff.  If they look like this in June, maybe we can speak on the subject more definitively.

As for the 6th starter, I think we have plenty of options - but given the 40 man, I've gotta assume one of them is Casey Lawrence.  If he gets shelled, he can come off the 40 man safely.  But with Graterol off the 40 man, who else can we DRA?   Kelly for sure, but then we get into marginal assets like Cecilliani or Goins. 

Latos or House make sense for number 7, but which team out there could easily handle the loss of two key starters in one week? 

Maybe Matt Dermody gets dropped - anybody wondering if he might not have the stuff for the bigs?  Rough, rough outing for the guy. 
[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#340808) #

People are trying to cram their narrative of a cheap Rogers or a conservative Shapiro as the reason for this start but the reality is that if the Jays don't turn it around, it's because the core of the team obtained by previous regimes got old quickly and that too much of the minor league talent close to the majors was traded away.

I don't recall the Jays trading away any minor league hitting talent that is helping anyone else at present. Pitching talent, yes (Syndergaard!), but not hitting talent. Pillar is the only farm system hitting product on the roster at present, and he's not exactly a great hitter. I would argue that the Jays' front offices - past and present - have worked miracles building contending teams during the past two years despite this shortage. But now, the lineup is too old, and we're going to have to wait until some new players come through the system. Which may take two or three years.

In the third inning, Kevin Pillar came up with one out and nobody on in a scoreless game. Dylan Bundy by that time had shown that he did not have the pinpoint control he had had in the previous outing. Pillar ran the count to 3-2. Bundy gave him a 3-2 fastball right down the middle which Pillar took for strike 3. It was perfectly obvious that he was guessing on a 3-2 count, and almost surely looking for something off-speed. I thought that Pillar's approach was indicative that he ought not to be a leadoff hitter.

I suspect that Pillar just doesn't have the innate ability to react quickly enough to handle any pitch that is thrown at him. If my hypothesis is correct, he has to narrow down his options and visualize one or perhaps two options, and then let the others go. (Justin Smoak is a more extreme example of this problem - with two strikes, he simply can't dial up for a fastball and then adjust to a breaking pitch. His reflexes just aren't built for that, which is why he is close to being driven out of MLB.)

I also wonder whether this was fallout from Pillar's attempting to be less hacktastic at the plate. If you concentrate on taking more pitches, sometimes you're going to take some that are strikes. Or maybe Pillar just screwed up - it happens.

I think the problem is that the Jays don't really have a leadoff hitter as such. Devon Travis is closest, but he's stuck in a megaslump. Carrera has some of the characteristics of a #1 hitter, but he's not really good enough at reaching base to justify putting him at the top of the lineup.)

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#340809) #
"....How about we wait till June 15 before we toss in the white towel?...."

That's a fair point.  The Jays are still only 5 games out of a wild-card spot!
[ Reply to This ]
eudaimon - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#340810) #
Only 5 games out eh? Lol. Oddly enough that fact makes me a little more optimistic.

It is a little too early to draw conclusions about anything yet. We haven't even played 10% of the season. We seriously need someone to start hitting though.

I think Morales was a good value signing. I wouldn't be surprised if he equals Encarnacion's production for the next few years. That being said maybe we didn't need another slow, lumbering 1B/DH in his mid 30s.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#340813) #

I don't recall the Jays trading away any minor league hitting talent that is helping anyone else at present.

Well, Travis D'arnaud has an OPS of 1.0629. The drafting of position players hasn't exactly been a strength. 

The Cardinals are 3-9 and they're a well respected franchise.

They gave that big contract to Fowler who's OPSing 0.385.

These things happen.

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#340814) #
The drafting of position players hasn't exactly been a strength.

Because they prioritized pitching.  Last year's draft, we took more hitters in the 1st 10 rounds, and we have Bichette and Palacios looking great.  Woodman and Biggio have upside, and only raw HS pick DJ Daniels struggled (badly). 

D'Arnaud's career has been limited by injuries, but if he's fully healthy, he could be great.  At the time of the Dickey deal, I though D'Arnaud might be the big loss, so what do I know....
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#340816) #
I thought trading JP and keeping D'arnaud would have been a great high risk, high upside move.
That would have required overpaying the backup catcher and every move seemed geared towards those payroll parameters...

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#340817) #
Just saw Eric Thames hit #7 in Wrigley. The ballpark's charm is indisputable but Wrigley in April is like Portage & Main in January.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Monday, April 17 2017 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#340818) #
Mark Shapiro was at a pitch talks event in Toronto tonight and said that the team does not believe Happ's injury to be serious.

He also said that Matt Latos was the likely first starter to be recalled (If they didn't call him up he could probably elect free agency).
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#340822) #
We have seen Jose Bautista's better arm this season but to my subjective eye his speed in the outfield has been slow. I now have some ammunition to support that observation. MLB has a new speed score and Jose brings up the rear. Per the stroy the average fly ball is in the air for five seconds and Jose would be 34 feet behind Billy Hamilton chasing the ball. Read it for yourself.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#340823) #
The speed score for Jose in the story is from 2016. I don't think he is any faster this year.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#340824) #
It's weird because they are looking at top 5% sprint times.  I thought that Bautista had some halfway decent sprints last year (when he wasn't hobbled) and would not have been (far and away) the slowest outfielder in the majors.  If you told me that he was slower than Carlos Beltran when both were healthy last year, I would have disagreed. Not that that is a high standard.

Anyways, he's a poor defensive outfielder.  We know that.  He is probably going to cost you about 10 runs a season out there, and he's got to hit quite a bit better than average (i.e. like Beltran did last year)  to make up for that.  I still think he can.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#340825) #
I didn't notice how little the Brewers had to pay for Thames.  There were several here who lobbied for him- and none who opposed.  As it turns out, he was probably a better bet than Steve Pearce or Kendrys Morales- less track record to rely on but three years younger. 

Among all the criticisms of the FO, I haven't seen the one that appeals most to me.  They said at the outset of the off-season that they were aiming to become faster, younger and more balanced right-left.  It seems me that the club is none of those three things. 

[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#340827) #
Regarding Bautista and foot speed: a generation or two ago (especially before the AL went to the DH), many teams would park a slow slugger in left field because they needed his bat. (Greg Luzinski was probably the classic example.) If Bautista really is the slowest outfielder in the majors now, it's clear that teams have decided that putting a slow guy in the outfield just isn't worth it, no matter how he hits.

I'd also suspect that Bautista is a little faster this year now that he is healthy. He'll still be at the slow end of the graph, but I don't think he's a dot by himself anymore.

As for Thames: I'd like to see him put up numbers for a longer period before I think of him as a star. He's obviously a much different hitter than the guy who was with Toronto, but the new Thames is still in his honeymoon period. Pitchers haven't yet figured out what he can't hit.

Of course, it may take a few months or even a year for pitchers to get a book on him, and he might deliver real value in the meantime. Examples from recent Jays history include Eric Hinske's rookie season and Josh Phelps's 2002 (.309 in 287 at-bats).
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#340828) #
Another factor in the Jays' awful start is simple old-fashioned bad luck. Obviously it doesn't explain everything, but it shouldn't be discounted as a partial explanation of some of the losses. Here's a tweet by a columnist at MLB.com (and I'll just leave it here for people to consider or reject, as they wish, for whatever it's worth):

#Statcast suggests #BlueJays have been unlucky. Exit velos and launch angles so far suggest .330 weighted OBA and actual wOBA is .266.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#340829) #
Injury update: Happ has elbow inflammation and is likely to end up on the 10-day DL, even though the injury is not as bad as initially feared.

So the Jays will need two starters, and all of the Buffalo starters are reportedly being considered.

I'd vote for House and Latos, myself. House has looked very good in his two starts. But I could see an argument for Lawrence too.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#340830) #
Mike Green - I think you can take the offseason discussion from management of getting younger, faster and more balanced as marketing cover for when/if they did not resign one or both of EE and Bautista. You can't sign Pearce and Morales and say, with a straight face, that you are trying to get younger or faster. I think the key is to watch what this front office does not what it says. There are many things said by this front office that have a clear marketing intent. I have no problem with this, its clearly part of the business side of the game, I just don't take it seriously.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#340832) #
More left/right balance is "marketing"?  I think that they were sincere, but just didn't get it done. 
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#340833) #
Barnes has been promoted to replace Dermody.

It's only April 18 and we've already seen 16 pitchers on the roster (including Barnes). And two more likely to be promoted to replace Happ and Sanchez in one or two starts, which will bring it to at least 18 pitchers before the end of the first month of the season.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#340834) #
"....he was probably a better bet than Steve Pearce or Kendrys Morales- less track record to rely on but three years younger...."

I agree with those who say that it's much too early to be certain about Thames this season, but he does seem like a good signing by the Brewers.  He's an example of what I meant recently when I described the Jays front office as "risk-averse."  I do give them full credit for taking chances on Happ and Estrada before the 2016 season, and then Liriano last year.  I'd have liked to see them take a few more chances recently on unconventional signings. I would have liked them to sign Thames in addition to Pearce and Morales, to give them more options against specific pitchers and in specific games. The fact that Goins is still on the roster shows that there would have been room on the roster for an additional slugger like Thames.  And then if Pearce is hitting badly, you can platoon him more often.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#340838) #
Ty Kelly has been recalled instead of JA Happ who heads to the DL.

More platooning and pinch hitting perhaps until a fifth starter is required at the weekend?
[ Reply to This ]
lexomatic - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#340839) #
NIGEL
Mike Green - I think you can take the offseason discussion from management of getting younger, faster and more balanced as marketing cover for when/if they did not resign one or both of EE and Bautista. You can't sign Pearce and Morales and say, with a straight face, that you are trying to get younger or faster. I think the key is to watch what this front office does not what it says. There are many things said by this front office that have a clear marketing intent. I have no problem with this, its clearly part of the business side of the game, I just don't take it seriously.MIKEMore left/right balance is "marketing"?  I think that they were sincere, but just didn't get it done. 

I'm not sure about being only marketing, but I also see it as long-term goals - so not letting the team get so unathletic and old in the future as well. It's vague enough that can be interpreted in many ways without being deceitful. There were only so many players available. Imagine if the Jays had only signed younger, faster players but who didn't have any other skills or experience to offer? I think the public opinion would have been brutal (unless until success, but no guarantees there). Faster, younger doesn't necessarily equal an improvement. I'd rather the team be improved (at an appropriate cost for the team's place in the win cycle).
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Tuesday, April 18 2017 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#340841) #
If you look at range factor, Bautista's 2016 season is an outlier, and I expect that is due to the injuries he had last year, particularly the toe/foot injury, so he was probably running significantly slower last year. His range factor as a RF in 2015 was 1.98, down to 1.76 in 2016, back up to 2.17 so far this year. Was over 2 in 2014 as well, so in 2016 it looks like he was really bothered by the injury. Would be interesting to see this year's speed numbers once there is some more data.
[ Reply to This ]
Orioles @ Blue Jays - April 13-16 | 178 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.