Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Minor League Placement Predictions

Minor league rosters will be announced this week. The Blue Jays do not release rosters until the home town teams have their chance to announce their teams first. Most of those announcements will come today and tomorrow. Some of the reporters covering the major league team will have some news sooner, and as I type this the Fisher Cats have released their roster.

Its fairly easy to predict where most of the top 30 will be placed.

Buffalo will have Rowdy Tellez, Christian Lopes and Danny Barnes.

The Fisher Cats will have Reese McGuire, Ryan McBroom, Richard Urena, Anthony Alford, Harold Ramirez, Conner Greene, Shane Dawson, Sean Reid-Foley, Francisco Rios and Jon Harris.

Dunedin should have Danny Jansen, Max Pentecost, Lourdes Gurriel, Ryan Borucki and Angel Perdomo.

Lansing has the most uncertain roster. Justin Maese, TJ Zeuch, Patrick Murphy and Zack Jackson should be there. JB Woodman, Vlad Guerrero and Joshua Palacios should join them. But in the middle infield there are three players for two spots. Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and Yeltsin Gudino could be there for two positions. Bryan Lizardo could also feature at third or elsewhere. There is a DH spot and players in low A don't play seven days a week so the lineup could be rotated to accommodate all of these players. That will be interesting to see.

We should know in the next 48 hours. Reggie Pruitt and Jose Espada are the two remaining top 30 players who I predict will stay in extended spring.

Posted by Gerry on Monday, April 03 2017 @ 10:53 AM EDT.

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China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#340118) #

Here is the tentative opening-day roster for the Fisher Cats. (All of Gerry's predictions are correct.)

http://www.milb.com/documents/6/0/6/221966606/2017_Fisher_Cats_Tentative_Opening_Day_Roster_8j2k53qg.pdf

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#340121) #

And here is the Dunedin roster:

http://www.milb.com/documents/7/4/2/222036742/RosterCheatSheet_9g08kru9.pdf

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#340122) #

In possible surprises, Zeuch and Biggio are both on the Dunedin roster, rather than Lansing.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#340123) #

There are a couple of surprises on the Dunedin roster.

First, Cavan Biggio is there, a big jump from short season ball. John LaPrise is injured and he was expected to be there so the Jays pushed Biggio up. Given his major league pedigree they through he could handle it.

Matt Dean and Lane Thomas are also surprises. Dean could have been in AA but will have to compete with Max Pentecost and Juan Kelly for AB's. Thomas did not dominate in Lansing last year so he will be under scrutiny.

The promotion of TJ Zeuch is also faster than I expected. He is a first round pick but he has little time in Lansing. Its part of the difference between the AA Jays and the Atkins/Shapiro Jays.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#340125) #

Dunedin rotation should be Borucki, Perdomo, Robson, Jordan Romano and Zuech. Two thirds Canadian.

That also looks like a strong rotation.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#340126) #

Lansing have also announced their roster. The one surprise is that Joshua Palacios, who had an excellent 2016, did not make it.

As I expected Jose Espada and Reggie Pruitt will play in extended.

The rotation will be Maese, Jackson, Murphy with Andy Ravel and Osman Gutierrez.

uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#340127) #

I'm very happy to see the likes of Zeuch and Biggio up at A+ already - at age 22 this year, they're actually more age appropriate for AA - starting them any lower than dunedin, despite their inexperience, would be a bit of a waste of time both in terms of their developement and in terms of understanding what kind of assets they might be for us going forward. Ideally both will end the year in AA.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#340128) #

Mitch Nay, John LaPrise and Jon Wandling start the season the DL for Dunedin. The other teams do not have any DL players. The Blue Jays have let me know that the DL assignments wont be finalized until Thursday, opening day.

Some DL spots will go to injured players but some will go to "parked" players who will be available as injury replacements.

PeterG - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#340129) #

Can u check out Palacios Gerry. Keeping him in extended makes absolutely no sense unless he is injured. He did miss a few days in ST with a minor injury.

uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#340130) #

Looking at the rosters, I'm pretty stoked by the placements so far of our good prospects. Some are a level low for me still tho and I hope they're candidates for quick promotion if they do well (I'll asterisk these guys):

AAA

Tellez (22)

AA

McGuire* (22)
Ramirez* (22)
Alford (22)
Urena (21)
Reid-Foley (21)
Rios (22)
Greene (22)
Harris* (23)

I gotta say that's a healthy dose of legit talent now in our "upper minors".

A+

Perdomo* (23)
Borucki* (23)
Zeuch (21)
Gurriel* (23)
Jansen* (22)
Pentecost* (24)
Biggio (22)

Tough to keep thinking of the likes of Perdomo/Borucki/Pentecost as "legit prospects" if they don't earn themselves a midseason promotion, really.

As for Lansing I sure hope Guerrero is there, and would be stoked to see Bichette there too.

uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#340131) #

Kinda hoped Maese would be in Dunedin but not upset they're giving him more time in Lansing. Hope he's one of the quick promotion candidates too though.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#340132) #

You can promote players too quickly and mess with their confidence. I was wondering yesterday if the Jays had rushed Miguel Castro too quickly.

There is nothing wrong with a few extra months at a level and let the player dominate. Take Justin Maese and assume he is too good for Lansing. That allows him to throw more of his secondary pitches and get them to be better. If he was in Dunedin, and just about good enough, he might feel he has to use his best pitches most of the time.

Ideally a player is past major league readiness when he is promoted. That minimizes the promotions and demotions you see with many prospects and provides greater value for the team.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#340133) #

The Bisons roster is out. Matt Latos is on there so I assume that means he accepted the demotion. Not on there is Lucas Harrell who has disappeared from all rosters. He could be on the DL.

There is also no sign of Jose Tabata. We barely saw him in spring training so he could also have an injury.

Finally, John Stilson does not appear on any roster, again could be a DL issue.

The rotation seems to be Lawrence, Latos, House, Oberholtzer and Grube.

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#340134) #

Stilson is on the New Hampshire roster.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#340135) #

Thanks CF, missed that, too many moving parts today.

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#340136) #

Lansing has confirmed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on their opening day roster. It will be exciting to watch his progress this year. Here is the full Lansing roster:

http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t499

PeterG - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#340137) #

Bo Bichette on Lansing roster as well. I hope these assignments are not too aggressive.

I see no Pompey or Berti, along with Harrell on Bisons roster. For now, will assume they are on DL. Same with Palacios in Lansing.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#340138) #

Add Jeremy Gabryszwski and Josh Almonte to the MIA list.

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#340142) #

The Jays disclosed today that Pompey is still weeks away from resuming baseball activities. I'm getting concerned about the guy.

Gerry - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#340144) #

A correction to the Lugnuts starters. Zach Jackson will be a reliever. Rotation will be Justin Maese, Patrick Murphy, Andy Ravel, Mike Ellenbest and Osman Gutierrez.

bpoz - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#340157) #

I agree with you 100% Peter G about J Palacios. I am unable to get official info on the Dunedin roster.

With that in mind, if he is not injured I believe he is in Dunedin. Just a guess.

mendocino - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#340169) #

on Milb's Midwest League transactions have
TJ Zeuch, Cavin Biggio, Carl Wise and Josh Palacios assigned to Ext. Spring Training, Lansing released Jackson Lowery

PeterG - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#340175) #

Zeuch and Biggio are listed on the Dunedin roster. I don't think all of the assignments are final and that we will see changes in a few days.

PeterG - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#340176) #

Doesn't Lansing play an exhibition game against Michigan State. Some of the assignments may be mixed up or temporary due to that. Last year, they made changes to the Lansing roster after that game.

rubewaddell - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#340178) #

"Crosstown Showdown" switched to post-season this year.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#340185) #

I don't know who will play CF for Buffalo opening day.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#340195) #

Fangraphs has published their top 17 Blue Jays prospects with detailed write-ups. Its worth a read.

jerjapan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#340233) #

Agreed Gerry, an interesting read. Love this nugget on Vlad Jr.:

"he�s improved his arm strength (once a question mark, now a 55 or 60) and might stay at third base for a little while, perhaps following a similar defensive path as Miguel Cabrera"

It's crazy how KATOH views Alford as our second best prospect but with a huge chance of making no impact in the bigs whatsoever. The whole 'likelihood of outcomes' feature of KATOH is interesting to me ...

any more statistically inclined people care to comment on the strengths and weaknesses of the metric overall?

Waveburner - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#340250) #

Any word on Taylor Cole or Kyle Weatherly? I had hoped Weatherly would grab a starting spot. Surprised they converted Jackson to relief right away. Maybe they are hoping he moves fast this way.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#340253) #

I think Taylor Cole moved overseas and I also think Weatherly was injured. Both comments are off the top of my head. Remember we should find out the DL situation on Thursday.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#340259) #

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#340260) #

Jerjapan, the fangraphs rankings which have Alford as the club's second best prospect are based on scouting not KATOH. So, the fangraphs' scouting rankings have Jon Harris rated ahead of Tellez, while KATOH has Tellez ranked well ahead of Harris.

KATOH says that Tellez has a 10% chance of generating 10+ WAR in his first 6 seasons. I'd take that bet at 10-1. It should be noted though that David Ortiz didn't generate 10 WAR in his first 8 seasons including 6 where he had substantial at-bats.

jerjapan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#340278) #

Thanks Mike, that makes far more sense. Those KATOH predictions seem off for a bunch of guys, but I like them saying that Vladdy has around a 50% chance of being worth 10+ career WAR. KATOH seems high on Josh Palacios and oddly high on Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez as well. Low ceiling guys, but both with a legit chance to contribute I assume.

Anyone with a take on Kevin Vicuna? The Fangraphs article has him as our top 'other prospect of note' which puts him much higher in the rankings than I have seen anywhere else.

This quote from the article was interesting ... not sure how I feel about it TBH. If anyone has an opinion on it, I'd love to hear it.

"It�s likely that the days of Toronto drafting very aggressively, even if a prospect�s signability is in question � as it was with Tyler Beede, Phil Bickford, Kevin Comer, and others � are over".

Gerry - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#340281) #

Vicuna just turned 19 in January, and its hard to form an opinion until he plays regularly in North America. He did have 178 at-bats last year in the GCL.

He is another international signing like Yeltsin Gudino, Dawel Lugo, Franklin Barreto and Richard Urena. You really need those guys to get to Lansing before you know what you have.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#340290) #

Buffalo and Toronto are generally subject to the same weather. With all the rain we are expecting here tomorrow and Friday the Bisons have already cancelled their first two games. Home opener is now Saturday.

jerjapan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#340311) #

Totally agree with your take on Vicuna Gerry ... I usually rate guys this young based on projectability, draft position or signing bonus.

I just find it interesting that guys like Vicuna are showing up in prospect rankings like with Fangraphs.

It seems the industry as a whole is starting to do a better job projecting younger and younger players. When the Sox traded 18-year old Espinoza for Pomeranz I was surprised, but I expect we will see this type of trade more often.

Gerry - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#340328) #

The Lugnuts have added a lot of disabled listed players to their roster. Josh Palacios, Carl Wise, Travis Bergen, Jon Weatherly, Nick Hartman and Javier Hernandez.

Andrew Case has been bumped up to Dunedin and replaced by Gino Encina.

#2JBrumfield - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#340331) #

I think Taylor Cole moved overseas and I also think Weatherly was injured.

Cole, Lucas Harrell, Blake McFarland are on the Bisons DL along with Jon Berti and Jose Tabata.

Gerry - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#340332) #

I confused Cole with Andy Burns. Mea culpa.

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