They are going to end up sending Carrera down and keeping Upton and Goins on the roster even though Carrera is a better player than either Upton or Goins.

Expect a lot of W's for Sanchez thanks to being lined up against the weakest the other teams have early on

This assumes that the opposing teams will have the same off days as Toronto.

If that is how all this turns out, then it's really hard to make that many poor roster decisions in such a short period of time. Wow

"....They are going to end up sending Carrera down and keeping Upton and Goins on the roster even though Carrera is a better player than either Upton or Goins...."

Carrera is out of options, so it will be difficult to demote him, unless they are willing to lose him.  My guess is that they prefer to keep him, unless they acquire Pagan or another outfielder.

It's true that they would like to keep Goins, because of the uncertainty about Travis.  But in the past few games, Travis has looked completely healthy, so I think the Jays will be willing to lose Goins.  They still have minor-league middle-infield depth with Diaz, Elmore and Petit.  It won't be a disaster if they lose Goins.

As for Upton:  I was a little surprised to see the recent speculation that the final roster spot is between Goins and Upton.  Would the Jays consider cutting Upton?  He hasn't had a great spring, but he was a useful hitter as recently as the first half of 2016.  He has value defensively, he has value against LHP and he has value as a pinch-runner.  I think they keep him.

It would be nice if Shapiro could arrange a trade of one of Barney and Goins and one of Carrera and Upton for a left-fielder who can hit RHP.  It doesn't seem like an impossible task, but I don't know that there is a club with a matching set of issues. 

Or they could try Pompey, in the absence of an obviously superior alternative. With Berti at Buffalo, the concern over Travis' replacement is misguided at best. I'm not sure Goins is a better option than Berti at 2B anyway.

"....With Berti at Buffalo, the concern over Travis' replacement is misguided at best..."

Thanks, I forgot to include Berti in my list of middle-infield depth.  I don't think he is necessarily much better than the other minor-league options, but he certainly adds to the depth.  There are three or four adequate middle-infield options in the system.  (Caveat: they're not all capable of playing SS at a high level. Berti, for example, has started only 1 game at SS in his entire 6-year minor-league career.)

As for Pompey:  has he even resumed baseball activities yet?  I've seen no reports indicating such.  The plan always was to have him open the season in Buffalo and to promote him if/when he is banging on the door, possibly within a month or two of the season opening. But that is surely delayed somewhat by his health situation. 

Still, if we don't see much hitting from the trio of Carrera, Upton and Smoak in the first month or two of the season, I would be keen on the idea of promoting Pompey and positioning Pearce full-time at 1B.

I am a big Pompey fan, but I do know that second concussions/mild traumatic brain injuries need to be treated with even more care than first ones.  I would be very surprised if he returns from injury to Toronto.

Pearce back in LF on the hard surface at the Big O tonight.  Two thumbs down. 

I'd like to see Berti show that he can handle AAA pitching before we pencil him in on the depth chart, but I do think we have enough middle IF / utility depth to handle losing Goins - and I'm not one of the posters who think Goins is a replacement level talent.

Berti's speed is a legit asset, but our next Ryan Goins is Jason Leblebijian IMO.  He lacks Berti's speed, but is a legit SS and seems to be a superior talent in every other respect.

Sorry Jerjapan, I've seen a lot of Leblelijian, he's no one's idea of a major league capable SS. He might handle it in a pinch but he's much more of a 3B/LF/general utility guy than a SS. I will say that I always thought he showed promise as a hitter and was surprised that the results didn't seem to reflect that. He's also a smart player. I'm glad he's made himself into a fringe prospect but his defence at any position will never be good.

I don't view Berti as a good prospect either, just there's little to choose between he and Goins at 2B. I agree it's a different story at SS but that's why Barney is around. Without Barney then I would agree that keeping Goins would be defensible. It's not in the current circumstances.

Dalton Pompey is still on the Roster because Jose Bautista is not with the Team (Brother's getting married). At the start of the Season, Pompey's in AAA.

Ryan Tepera is still on the Roster in case either Aaron Loup or Mike Bolsinger are injured. At the start of the Season, Tepera's in AAA.

Ryan Goins is still on the Roster because the Jays don't want Devon Travis playing on Montreal's crappy turf. At the start of the Season, I fully expect Goins to be on waivers.

Leblelijian is far more Steve Pearce than Goins. I'm not suggesting for a second that he's that good but he's a pretty big guy and will function better on the corners than in the middle of the diamond.

Thanks Nigel, I haven't seen Leblejian play so I'm just passing along info I've read about his time with various minor league teams and in Australia - the coaches are often the sources for that stuff, and it's not at all surprising that they might inflate their reports of a longshot prospect's skill set. 

That said, I've read several reports that his D was legitimately good - do you not think he's a capable defender at other positions then?  That certainly changes my impression of him.

I love this about the Box - we've got people watching the prospects in Vancouver, Lansing, Buffalo ... even the DSL. 

I've seen him play SS and 3rd. I think I would describe his defence at 3rd as at least average. At SS it was below average mostly due to lack of range. I can well image him to be an adequate corner outfielder as well. Plus, it's been a couple of years since I last saw him live. I just can't imagine time having aided his problems as a middle infielder- which were range and quickness. His defensive skills may well have improved at the corners.

The snow is never gone in Thunder Bay. It just lies in wait, lurking, waiting for you to put your shorts on for a few days before reappearing far too soon.

I'm interested to see how Gibbons manages 1B and LF all season with what he's currently got available to him. It looks like the front office is forcing him to play Smoak at first (I can't imagine that is Gibby's idea), but the best lineup is clearly Pearce at 1B and whoever the hotter of the two between Upton and Zeke is (definitely Upton against LHP). He pretty much has to bench Smoak any time a SP with an above average breaking pitch is on the mound.

It will likely all sort itself out eventually, but hopefully it doesn't hurt the team in the process.

Word going around is the last roster spot is between Goins and Upton. That seems like a slam dunk choice, but according to Heyman "there are reports Melvin Upton Jr. is on the bubble to make the team."

Barney is already on the team and Goins does nothing that Barney can't do better. Even if Travis was a concern, I don't see why they would lose an asset like Upton, who makes peanuts this season, for the sake of carrying a negative WAR utility infielder.

I'd be surprised, and disappointed, if Goins makes the team over Upton. I hate beating the Smoak horse as much as anyone else, but the roster decisions seem to be based around his existence at 1B, and it's simply not making much sense.

SK, I agree with everything you say. I have repeatedly said that the front office would never be stupid enough to go with Pearce full time LF. I remain irrationally optimistic. However, the one thing I continue to underestimate is Gibbons' fetish for certain players.

I mean Upton stinks, and him being cut gives Pompey a bigger opportunity, so that's cool with me, really.

And that's coming from someone who would find it a relief to lose Goins on waivers, really.


On another note, the verdict is in on Kendrys Morales:

Pat: He's an rbi man.

Buck: He's a real baseball player.

Upton, Carrera, Smoak and Goins are all equally irrelevant IMO.  Ride the hot hand, cut the underperformer, promote the rookie, trade for the replacement player.

None of these guys are worth the ink we are spilling on them. 

To me, competition is a good thing, and you need a roster spot or two open to make changes.  LF and 1B are the cheapest positions on the market, and I'm sure our FO is leveraging this fact.

An OF who can play defense, run, and hit LHP is an asset.

A back-up infielder who is so bad offensively that it negates the only skill he actually brings to the table is not.

The Jays can probably trade Upton tomorrow for a better player than Goins. If they are intent on going with Pearce in LF and Smoak at 1B against RHP, then go with Upton in LF and Pearce at 1B against lefties (and do defensive switches late in games like tonight with Upton subbing for Smoak and then Pearce shifting over to 1B).

Carrera should be the OF who is moved, if either of them has to go, but I think the FO and the manager both equally like him for whatever reason. Ideally, just option Goins. No team is going to claim him, and even if they do, so what?

"....None of these guys are worth the ink we are spilling on them...."

They represent 2 of the 9 lineup positions, so they are worthy of debate.  We're not going to debate who should be the starting 3B or the starting SS so we might as well debate the uncertain positions.  And there's going to be more debate later today, after the last pre-season game, when the Jays announce the final roster.  Will be interesting to see. 

"....To me, competition is a good thing, and you need a roster spot or two open to make changes.  LF and 1B are the cheapest positions on the market, and I'm sure our FO is leveraging this fact...."

That's a good point, and I really hope the FO is trying to upgrade at those positions.  But there have been available LF options in the off-season and the FO has apparently chosen not to pursue them (with the possible exception of a minor-league contract offer to Pagan, which is penny-pinching in my view).  The only logical conclusion is that the FO actually likes Carrera and Upton and Smoak -- and the only logical response from fans is a lot of puzzled discussion about that.....

"....the one thing I continue to underestimate is Gibbons' fetish for certain players..."

 To be fair, it is the Front Office, not the manager, who have decided that Carrera and Upton and Smoak are perfectly adequate to fill 2 positions in the lineup (with Pearce as the only upgrade).  And it was the Front Office, not the manager, who boasted about their mysterious "internal analytics" that love Carrera.

The manager can only play the players he is given.

well they only represent one spot, actually, as Pearce fills the other.

and I was told in no uncertain terms here this offseason that the GM makes roster decisions, not the manager.

"....as Pearce fills the other...."

I believe that's what I said, although I perhaps didn't word it as clearly as I could have.

Arden Zwelling says today that the final roster spot is "down to the wire" between Upton and Goins.

A couple of points about this:
 
1) If the Front Office are actually contemplating the possible release of Melvin Upton, it suggests that they actually do believe their mysterious "internal analytics" about Carrera -- or they are willing to use Pearce mostly in LF, despite the uncertain health of his throwing arm, and despite the fact that it leaves Smoak as the primary 1B.   Now I still think that the Jays will ultimately release Goins and keep Upton, but the mere fact that they are considering the possible release of Upton is surprising.  It could also be a vote of confidence in Dalton Pompey, but it's clear that Pompey won't be an option in LF for several weeks, if not longer, due to his need to recover from his concussion and then to get a fair amount of minor-league rehab to get back to full performance level.

2) What a comedown for a player with a $16-million salary if the Jays would consider dropping him in favor of a utility infielder with a career OPS of .595.  Yes, I realize that the Jays are on the hook for just $1-million of the $16-million but this guy was considered a star when he signed a $75-million contract with the Braves.  Now he could get dropped for Goins.

could simply be that Upton is a lazy SOB and not talented enough to keep a spot without being a gamer. i may not love zeke or goins but they leave it on the field, and when dealing with these final roster slots that probably matters. I could easily see it being this kind of issue....and making it public that upton could be cut might be a message to him to shape up.

Apportioning responsibility for less than ideal arrangements isn't much fun, but here goes anyways.  If Smoak is playing everyday against RHPs at first base in April and Pearce is playing everyday against RHPs in left-field, this would be far from ideal- indeed a very bad idea.  No one here seems to be wild about it anyways, and some of us are a little more vociferous. So, who is responsible if that is what happens?  I'd say everybody- the FO for not ensuring that there was a good reasonable everyday option in LF and for re-upping a manager who is not ideally suited to this kind of uncertainty, and the manager for not making the best of a less than ideal hand.  Carrera or Upton in LF and Pearce at first base is a better option. 

Pearce is an under-appreciated asset.  He's a perfectly capable everyday first baseman, and I think that if you just leave him there, he'll give you 550-600 PAs.  It's funny that the Rays had Logan Morrison (who is a ringer for Smoak) and did not give Pearce the playing time that they ought to have...

For the record - all I really care about is that Pearce plays everyday. My worry about him in the OF is more health related than performance. And Smoak is a better hitter than upton or carrera so the offense makes up for any defense anyways.

ideally the only realistic best case scenario this year is for pompey to perform like a capable starting lf (reasonable imo) and pearce at 1B.

but arguing over smoak/carrera/upton getting the bulk of one starting spot doesn't seem urgent imo. don't think it makes much difference other than injury risk.

imo.

Injury risk is definitely the big item. Pearce's injury last year when he was in LF was important to the Os. Showalter did have a trickier situation because of the presence of Chris Davis.

I'd be willing to dump Upton and/or Goins and pick up Nick Franklin - I read earlier that the Rays were interested in Upton if the Jays dumped him (I know they acquired Bourjos) - maybe Upton for Franklin, who has 4 yrs. of control left.

Jays have signed Chris Coughlan, he will go to Buffalo to start the season.

I like the Coghlan signing. Minor league deal but he could help the team at some point during the season. Lefty bat that can hit righties and a solid defender in left.

Pearce was a very good defensive outfielder in 2014 (+9 DRS and 6.3 UZR in LF and RF that season). He regressed in 2015-16, whether due to injury, age, regression, or whatever. I agree with ugly that as long as he stays healthy and plays everyday, that's really all that matters. His bat will play in either spot. The issue is whether playing the outfield is worse for him in terms of staying healthy, especially considering his recent injury that ended his 2016 season. I actually don't mind him playing LF if 1B was taken by a better player than Smoak (someone like Luis Valbuena, for example, who I thought would have been a very good signing). Either way, there's nothing that can be done now except see what happens. Smoak is either going to turn into whatever the Jays think he has the potential to become, or he will play his way out of a job by May/June.

approval on coghlan.

keep him away from lefties and he has a decent chance of giving us competence in LF.

Hard not to be a fan of the Coghlan deal.  He's got some on base skills, defensive versatility and came basically free ... his availability is exactly why I'm not worried about LF / 1B.  Pearce will get lots of ABs and the rest of the bunch can sort themselves out.  with all the different names in the mix, we should be able to extract decent, cheap value out of LF / 1B.

Coghlan could be useful as a platoon (with Upton or Carrera) if he can regain his career numbers (.268/.341/.424 vs RHP).  But his numbers against RHP last season were far worse, with an OPS of just .627 against RHP.   If he replicates his 2016 performance, he's not much use to the Jays.  Let's give him a month or two in Buffalo to see which Coghlan he might be this year.

Looking at some smaller sample sizes:  Coghlan did hit much better in his 128 plate appearances for the Cubs last season (.779 OPS).  But then he looked much worse in the pre-season this year (.601 OPS), which is probably why the Phillies dumped him.

Did Upton just make the team?

heh. probably.

How many times have Buck and Pat said "If you put Goins on waivers, he's gone!" this spring?

even though it's a) probably not true and b) wouldn't be bad if it was?

Upton does look absolutely effortless when he hits a HR.  Very impressive swing.  And yet, in his previous AB, he managed to looked terrible with a couple of wild swings.  He's an enigma.

Bolsinger getting hit all over the place today.  If it wasn't for the "multiple innings" thing, and the "out of options" thing, Tepera would definitely be a better choice than Bolsinger.  And maybe he still is.

We thought the Jays had begun the spring with a huge number of bullpen options, but that depth has rapidly disappeared over the course of the spring.

that was ugly enough to put his spot in jeopardy.

Great job by Tim Mayza to extract the team from Bolsinger's mess.

In a game that was not important Mike Bolsinger gets hit around badly. Ryan Tepera is more trustworthy than that. I think the decision is easy.

Every Team has a Ryan Goins, no hit, good fielder. I'd be surprised if he doesn't clear waivers.

nice to see Stilson still getting looks. I'm still a fan of his arm despite all the injuries.

Buck just disclosed that Glenn Sparkman's injury is serious enough to put him on the 60-day DL.   That's bad news for Sparkman, but it does open up another 40-man roster spot for the Jays.  Lots of interesting names in the final roster cuts in other organizations, so the Jays will definitely be looking to pick up good players.

By my count, the Jays will have at least 2 open spots on the 40-man.  They can put Sparkman and Schultz on the 60-day DL, and they will cut either Goins or Upton, but they have to add Saltalamacchia to the 40-man.   Then, if they need another spot or two, they could look at perhaps cutting a fringe player such as Chris Smith, Ryan Borucki, Matt Dermody, Juan Graterol or Darrell Ceciliani.  Of course they'd prefer to keep all of those guys, but if there's a good player available, they might bite the bullet.

I agree with Mike Green, poor roster decisions represent a collection front office failure. I think that this is particularly true in this case: add on dollop of blame to Rogers for poor budget decisions; one tablespoon to the President/GM for a poor contract to Smoak and one dollop to the manager for his love of Carrera, Smoak and Goins over other better options. It all adds up to a poor allocation of resources.

Nigel, who are the "better options" on the roster that the front office has given to Gibbons?   (And please don't say Pompey -- he is injured and needs time in Buffalo anyway.)

rowdy oppo no-doubter.

got out in a hurry.

sweet.

Just because you have been given Smoak doesn't mean he's the right guy to pencil in at 1B.

Rowdy didn't even get all of that.

The Jays might have something there.

Game's over. The Final 25-Man Roster should be announced today. Games start Monday.

Apparently they're announcing the final roster tomorrow. 12pm eastern is the deadline I think.

Mike Bolsinger has reportedly been placed on waivers.  So the final bullpen spot will go to Tepera.

That's probably the best move.  Bolsinger's stuff looked very soft and hittable today.  He might even pass through waivers unclaimed, so that he can be stashed in Buffalo.

It does compound the "6th starter" problem.  But it opens up another 40-man roster spot, and I would expect the Jays to be active on waivers and non-roster signings this weekend as they look to acquire a potential depth starter from the final cuts from other organizations.
 

And one other conceivable scenario, although it's a longshot:  the Jays could option Tepera and go with a 6-man pen at the beginning of the season, since there are s couple of off days.  That would allow them to keep both Upton and Goins, if they are desperate to do so.

The problem with that scenario is that most of the starters aren't yet capable of going 7 or 8 innings, so the bullpen could be heavily needed in the opening couple of weeks.  So it's unlikely to happen.

Buster Olney is reporting that Melvin Upton will not be on the opening day roster.

Heyman saying Jays are listening to offers for Upton. Looks like the soured on him pretty quickly.

If they're dumping Upton, there should be a spot on the roster for someone like Pagan or Coghlan.   Unless they're planning to make Pearce the primary LF against RHP, which as we've noted is not the best defensive lineup for the team.

Pearce will be the primary LF and Smoak the primary 1b until such time as a change is deemed necessary.

Multiple teams reported to be interested in Upton. I imagine the Jays will get a prospect in return.

Upton in LF vs a LHP and Pearce at 1st on that day was one of the optimal set ups given the resources at hand. Not good

If I have a choice in Ezequiel Carerra and Chris Coughlan, I prefer the new guy. The Jays however might want to keep all possible options open.

As I said earlier, Upton hits LHP, has speed, and can play D. He's an asset and he's cheap. Carrera and Goins are replacement level bench players (Goins is likely below that). I don't get the logic here but I'll wait until the roster moves shake out. Maybe they have something brewing.

As far as Bolsinger, I hope he clears waivers. Being in AAA as a SP would benefit the Jays a ton. Waiting until the last day of ST certainly makes it more likely that he clears, but definitely not a guarantee depending on the needs of other teams.

I'm glad the FO is prepared to make performance / character based decisions - listening to Atkins during the broadcast today I had assumed the team was going to keep Upton and Bolsinger based on asset management (Atkins' words).

SD is paying close to all of Upton's salary - clearly, we aren't the only team who has soured on the guy. 

I still contend that it ultimately makes a pretty minimal difference whether we play Smoak, Upton, Carrera or someone else. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the real reason behind this was that Rogers decided they didn't want to pay the $4m owed to Upton. We'll never know.

Arguably, SD dumped Upton to try improve their draft. He was having a decent year for them.
He does hit lefties, play acceptable defense and is a legitimate threat to steal.

I guess it's all about which player on the team you like the least.
It's a toss between Goins and Carrera for me.

I think it is a realistic and logical assumption that is not the reason. I think that they want character players who give their all. That is not Upton. Also, it is my understanding that he is only owed 1 mil. That is why he is tradable.

Rogers has already gone over the initial budget with the JBo signing.

last 3yrs:

Vs LH:

Pearce 145wrc+
Carrera 125wrc+
Upton 106wrc+
Smoak 82wrc+
Pompey 72wrc+
Coghlan 65wrc+

Vs RH

Pearce 125wrc+
Coghlan 113wrc+
Smoak 97wrc+
Pompey 91wrc+
Carrera 75wrc+
Upton 76wrc+

neither zeke or BJ should ever play against RHP ever.

They're both useful against LHP.

zeke gives max effort, though.

Lineups with ast 2yrs wrc+

Vs RH

2B Travis 124
3B Donaldson 152
RF Bautista 141
DH Morales 117
LF Pearce 113
SS Tulowitzki 95
C Martin 101
1B Smoak 102
CF Pillar 87

OF Coghlan 105
OF Pompey 91
OF Carrera 77
OF Upton 77

Vs LH

2B Travis 99
3B Donaldson 161
RF Bautista 118
DH Morales 125
1B Pearce 113
SS Tulowitzki 122
C Martin 123
LF Carrera 120 / Upton 128
CF Pillar 87

Bolsinger's got to be gone after that horrible performance today. Tepera deserves a spot on the team. Rotoworld says the Jays are shopping Upton, and with only $1 million owing, I would think a few teams would be interested - he's still a pretty good platoon player. I guess the Jays are planning on starting the season with Pearce in LF and Smoak at 1B, but I'd be surprised if that lasted for more than 2-3 months. Pompey and/or Tellez could be in line for a callup by then.

Chris Coghlan is almost certainly in the mix as well -- and may even be on the opening roster - he certainly offers more at the plate than Goins, and he started 15+ games at 4 different positions last year (LF/RF/2B/3B). He's also a prototype of the "character" that this FO has been adding: Veteran, team-first guy, with World Series experience (e.g. Salty, Morales, Howell).

Coghlan might indeed be a good choice for the opening-day roster.  I like a lot of things about him, including his positional versatility and his hitting numbers against RHP.  He's probably a better choice than Upton or Goins for the opening-day roster.  But this presumes that his atrocious hitting for Oakland last season was merely an aberration, rather than a foreshadowing of a new normal.  One hopes that the Jays have done some strong scouting to answer that question.  Otherwise they might need to give him a month or two in Buffalo to get a better sense of whether he is worth a spot on the 25-man roster.

Latest reminder of the unpredictability of baseball:  Scott Feldman and Jesse Chavez both looked very mediocre in the Jays bullpen last season, yet today both are in the starting rotations of their respective new teams -- with Feldman as the opening-day starter for the Reds.

Feldman as the opening-day starter for the Reds

Was it the unpredictability of baseball, a simple twist of fate or something much darker that brought Cincinnati to this place?  Eephus, what say you?

Three real games today.  Yes!

Osuna placed on the 10-day DL.  Bolsinger and Upton released.  Leone recalled from Buffalo.   Tepera and Goins also make the opening-day roster.

Osuna to the DL.  Dominic Leone recalled.  It's April 2nd, so no fooling.

Technically Upton Jr. was released, Bolsinger was DFAed. 

Pompey also opens the season on the 10-day DL, so it's clear that he is still recovering from that concussion. 

And a slight correction:  Bolsinger is technically a DFA so I suppose he could be traded, or he could even end up in Buffalo if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Osuna was telling everyone on Saturday that he was absolutely fine, so I wonder what's going on there. And who closes the games until he returns?  Grilli?

The decision to keep Goins rather than Upton is an odd one, but the Jays have clearly given up on Upton.  His poor spring was the last straw.

And what happened to the bullpen depth?  Is it now Danny Barnes, Chris Smith and hope for rain?

I am not sure about the meaning of Pompey's DL placement.   Suppose the Jays put him on a rehab assignment in Buffalo after the DL and he is brought back to the big club after the rehab assignment.  In that scenario,do they burn an option year? If not, the DL placement might assist the club in "keeping its options open".  Sorry. 

Upton's release means that we'll get to see Pearce in LF and Smoak strikeout instead of Pearce at 1B and Upton strikeout. Seems like a wash.

Osuna. That's bad. Young pitcher. Intense spring with the power of nationalism driving training? Give Jobu rum. Pray to Jobu. May Jobu make Osuna healthy and bats afraid.

Aside: Watched Major League with my partner last weekend; it holds up. Watched the games in Montreal and was asked, "Why doesn't Montreal have a team anymore." The easy explanation was just to refer to the plot of Major League. A bummer but more than a ring of truth to it.

I'm surprised Upton didn't make it over Goins, but maybe I shouldn't be. I don't Gibbons really trusted him, and FO clearly didn't care for him much either (they got a lottery ticket and a couple prospects for a few million bucks, not a bad gamble).

I have no evidence to back this up, but Upton might also not mix well in the clubhouse, or at least with Gibbons. He doesn't really look like he tries that hard out there, and I'm not convinced that he actually likes playing baseball. He was good enough in the field, but also prone to mistakes (I remember a totally missed fly ball in left as one example that stuck in the mind). And he struck out a tonne and was only maybe useful vs LHP, and perhaps not even then if he replicated his totally useless years in ATL.

I like Carrera, but I think we'll need to bring up another OF at some point. Perhaps when it becomes totally undeniable that Justin Smoak sucks? Like most here I'd rather see Pearce at 1B than the outfield.

What exactly is Goins' role on this team?  He's a back-up to the back-up (Barney) in the middle infield, and he's a back-up to the back-up (Carrera) in the outfield.  Why bother?  It might have been more useful to add an 8th reliever, given the absence of Osuna, the absence of a long man in the bullpen, and the fact that none of the starters have gone past 5 or 6 innings this spring.

Upton wasn't happy about being a bench player.

I really don't get he Goins love. I don't see any drop from any of the other Buffalo infield backups.

It was reported that Osuna's velocity was down by 4-5 mph this spring.
Apparently he's been throwing 2-seamers instead of 4-seamers, maybe to compensate.

I suppose Grilli closes.

goins is a placeholder for coghlan/Pompey.

there should have been much more anger for the trade FOR upton (and the playing time handed to him down the stretch) than there is for releasing him.

I read now that Osuna had a cervical spasm.

I guess that's another name for that sore neck he had for sleeping on a soft mattress?

neck kinks are the worst.

The most memorable Upton moment for me will always been that strike out looking on a Miller pitch a foot outside during the ALCS.

Cervical spasms/strains are a week to a month type of thing. Hopefully he's back quick.
Concussions are a week to a year type of thing. No one knows how long it takes to recover. That explains the Chris Coghlan signing.

Just speculating, but I feel when talking about the last few spots on the 25 man roster, it really isn't as important to get the right skill set as it is to get the right teammate - Goins has been a key contributor to our last two seasons, plays hard, and seems popular with his teammates.  Is character worth enough for us to lose a marginal advantage in a couple of ABs in April? 

Props to Tepera for making the club - being on the Buffalo shuttle has to be tough, especially when you actually get results but pitch less - and earn far less - than some less deserving players who are on the roster for asset-management reasons.  I'm all for asset-management, but at a certain point, the best player has to make the team to keep the dream of performance earning you a spot alive. 

One or two personalities can dramatically impact the tone of a group of people, so I get the desire to keep an underachiever like Upton out of the mix. 

And I'm keen to see what Leone can do - his 2014 for a tantalizing debut. 

I'll take Carrera over Coghlan, easily, but I am still not down with protecting Goins.

He isn't worth the spot.

I am also disappointed that they are losing Bolsinger in order to give Ryan Tepera another shot. I'd rather have Bolsinger. (Though I am intrigued by Dominic Leone being on the roster. Too bad it is because Osuna is hurt.)

I agree with jerjapan regarding Goins.

If we're adding a fringe player to the roster because of "character", we might as well bring back Kawasaki.   I hear he's available.

Was it the unpredictability of baseball, a simple twist of fate or something much darker that brought Cincinnati to this place?

Definitely something much darker, though I'm guessing the Reds are hoping he's the next Dan Straily.

Fun fact: the Reds number three starter is a pitcher named Rookie Davis. You may not be surprised to learn that he'll be making his major league debut.

Wow. If Upton isn't good enough to make the team, he must have some really serious makeup issues. Now when Pearce gets hurt on the turf, LF is Carrera/CoghlanForChrist/ConcussionPompey? Is the team really that desperate to carry a below-replacement-level Goins or an 8th reliever WITH options?

I know Upton isn't great, but for $1M, is he really THAT BAD?

What did he do, slash the tires on Gibby's Kia Rondo?

Osuna pitched Wednesday with the radar gun turned off, that was a sign. Its odd that he was Ok to pitch on Friday but not in the season. It might have been painful for him and it might not get better if he continues to pitch.

On another note, former Jay Miguel Castro has been DFA'd by the Rockies. Was he rushed to the majors too early by the Jays?

I don't understand this move at all. Maybe there was something with Upton in the clubhouse that lead to this, but from a pure talent standpoint, releasing him to protect Goins is a very poor decision. Goins is about as fungible a player as there is. If Upton catches on with another team and plays primarily against lefties, it wouldn't surprise me if he has a pretty good season. Hell, the Jays are paying Carrera more than Upton in 2017, and still chose to stick with the (likely) lesser more expensive player.

Even if Coghlan eventually comes up, he'll still need to platoon with someone, and Upton would have been ideal for that role. Carrera hits lefties better than righties too, but I'm not convinced that's as sustainable as Upton's production against lefties likely will be. We will see.

Further to the Upton decision:  now we have to hope that Hansel Rodriguez doesn't turn into the next Noah Syndergaard....

No question he wasn't ready while Osuna was. If you take 2 talented A+ pitchers at 20 and 1 becomes a closer while the other flops but is useful in a trade then I'd say you did pretty good. I'd grab him if I was the Jays as how vital is the 7th reliever anyways?

If we're adding a fringe player to the roster because of "character", we might as well bring back Kawasaki.   I hear he's available.

Well, that's the question isn't it?  How much is character worth?  It's not quantifiable so we internet forum types are naturally skeptical, but is it irrelevant?  marginally important?  genuinely significant?  I imagine the players and coaches put a much higher value on it than we might think - I certainly know from my experiences teaching / coaching groups of 20-30 young people that one or two people can make a dramatic difference to chemistry, which can impact work ethic, buy-in to managerial decisions, etc.  You've got to figure that a team with a strong work ethic has an advantage, but again, how significant is it?  And it may not even be Goins' character as an individual - the sense that you have to 'make' the team - and that you even can make the team - is important if you are trying to run a meritocracy. 

I honestly have no idea if character even factored into the decision to keep Goins over Upton, but it certainly seems plausible, and I'm fine with valuing intangibles over statistics in certain cases if they were in fact part of the decision. 

And just because Mune was a character doesn't mean he has the character the team is looking for (to paraphrase Mr. Wolf).  Perhaps a bit too goofy - this is a pretty intense team.  Either way, Mune has signed back in Japan.
 

Jerjapan, I think you're absolutely right in general terms (although I am skeptical that it applies to the Goins case).  In many cases, "character" does matter -- especially if it's a synonym for the leadership skills that some players have.  It cannot be entirely a coincidence that the Jays reached the playoffs in two consecutive seasons immediately after they acquired Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki -- two of the hardest-working and most uncompromising veterans in the game, two players who undoubtedly have a huge impact in the clubhouse as role models and leaders.

On the flip side of this, a few of the greatest players ever weren't very nice people to be around. Ted Williams could be a curmudgeon, and I can't imagine Ty Cobb was pleasant, especially to rookies. There are probably several more who were miserable characters, but they performed well enough for that to be ignored. Then you have someone like Danny Valencia, who has put up decent numbers but has played for multiple teams. Many here were outraged when he was released for nothing, but it was later rumored that he didn't have a good clubhouse presence. I don't like to give credence to rumors but maybe that was a deal of addition by subtraction.

"....Ted Williams could be a curmudgeon...."

I have a feeling that someone like Tulowitzki can be a bit of a curmudgeon in the clubhouse if he feels that some players aren't working hard enough.  Intensity can perhaps be unpleasant, but it can push teammates into working harder and focusing harder.

I don't think the Jays situation has so much to do with nice people as with motivated people. It was obvious imo that Upton just wanted to relax and take a paycheck. He had little to no motivation. The Jays were able to see this and made the right decision in releasing him.

I like Goins but am not going to suggest that he has a long term future with the team unless his hitting improves. There were some signs in ST that he was trying to hit balls more to the opposite field. Until, a more desirable roster player than Upton is available, I am ok with keeping him for now.

This "character" trait is certainly debatable. I Think it exists.
The Montreal Canadians I believe had strong spirit that led to them winning Cups when they were not the stronger team IMO. I remember Ken Dryden's pre rookie year.

Then there are guys that choke and those players that excel in big games. Goins is probably not going to lead this team to their eventual success this year. I am optimistic about this team succeeding because of character. Martin and Donaldson for sure. I am happy that Tulo seems that way too. Stroman showed me and everyone that he is a big game player. I can add Estrada too. Now I will stop listing character players.

Lastly I don't need to worry that 2B,SS and 3B will be defensively weak. Goins will come through with great defense. And when we get into the post season, nobody can hit anyway because all the pitching staffs are good. So defense counts.

You might not believe it, but a BP writer (citing a club source) is reporting that Goins was kept on the roster because he has more trade value than Upton.  It's an interesting read, even if you might be skeptical:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/?utm_content=bufferec02d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Yanks lose!!!

With Upton gone, Tabata might have been an interesting guy, but I've heard nothing about him since the Jays signed him. I presume he's injured, but I haven't seen his name mentioned at all.

Good to see Tepera make it. Leone had a strong looking career going until 2015 - don't know what happened to him, but he had some good minor league numbers and then a very good mlb season in 2014.

Osuna better not be out for long. Everybody else has to move up a slot, making the whole pen look a little light.

Bumgarner with a perfect game going after 5 innings, plus he's hit a HR. Has a pitcher ever hit a HR while throwing a perfect game?

Tabata appeared in one ST game at the major level. I don't know what is going on with him but he did not appear injured. Maybe he was trying it out but it was a no go after one game. He is still in the organization.

I do believe that Goins has more trade value than Upton. That is obvious as Upton has none or he would have been dealt. A trade may eventually be in the cards for Goins. Could likely get a lower level prospect that didn't need to be put on 40 man in return, likely from an NL team or a team with injuries.

Remember when GMs used to do favors for each other? Send something surplus for some sort of good will.

Your close buddies can always give you a job.

Bumgarner just hit his second home run for the Giants in their opener. A question for those of you who know the rules better than me: If he were in the AL, would you be able to bat him? If so, could you still have the DH and have a guy in the field who doesn't bat?

Wouldn't it be cool if they could?

Exhibit 1 about not paying attention to spring performances - Tanaka was lights out in spring, Rays light him up like a christmas tree today when it actually counts.

Thumbs up to both decisions - releasing Upton and DFA of Bolsinger. I hope the Jays don't rush back Osuna - it's a long season.

If Upton has no trade value when his financial obligation is $1M, then that's surprising. I figured they'd be able to get a Ryan Goins clone with options, if nothing else. I guess it makes sense since the OF market really dried up and similar/better OF's were getting minor league deals, but $1M for a platoon OF who can cover CF/LF and hit lefties pretty well seems reasonable.

Goins having any trade value at all is more shocking, though. Not sure I buy that many teams wanted him, but who knows. Maybe he is still living off his decent 2015 season.

I'm going to guess that the Jays liked Upton's numbers with the Padres, but then soured on him after seeing him for two months in 2016, and now spring training. Maybe he didn't like coming off the bench either. Hard to say, it's all speculation for now.

Michel Goulet of the Quebec Nordiques played with minimum effort and was always heavily criticized by the fans.
He still gave them 361 goals in 7 seasons.

Upton was obviously not that valuable.

An Upton trade would have been possible if 2 teams had serious interest.
A lone team can just pick him up for the minimum salary.

I don't know if Goins can be traded, but I don't see how he gets at-bats in the current lineup.
Donaldson and Travis would both need to be unavailable.

Yes, Bumgarner could hit if he played in AL. You don't HAVE to use a DH. No, you can't use a DH for another position player.

Bumgarner has legit power, now with 16 HR's in 455 career AB's. He has produced 3.3 oWAR over the last 3 seasons.

"....Goins having any trade value at all is more shocking...."

Some teams are willing to carry a defence-only shortstop, at least for a few weeks of the season.  One possibility is the Yankees, who don't seem to have found a satisfactory replacement for the injured Gregorius so far. Here's a story about the Yankees casting around the trade market in an effort to acquire a shortstop:

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/03/mlb_trade_rumors_what_yankees_are_targeting_in_sho.html

Colorado has DFA'd Miguel Castro - I wonder if the Jays think he is a worthy reclamation project - still has an option.

Don't know if this has been reported anywhere, but while the Jays were going to pay Upton $1 million, I wonder whether that would have been true for a trade partner. For instance, I don't know whether San Diego's agreement to pick up $15 million of his salary this year was transferable to another team, or whether it was extended to Toronto alone. If so, the lack of a trade market makes perfect sense.

I would totally take a flier on Miguel Castro.  He was totally not ready for the major league pen here in TO - getting traded to Colorado was just cruel and unusual punishment. 

Upton is one of those guys who's such a fluid, graceful athlete that he always looks as if he's not trying very hard. I don't think that's his problem. I think he's just not much of a baseball player, and at 32 the athleticism is not quite what it used to be. It also makes sense to me to keep two qualified backup infielders, what with the lengthy injury histories of Tulowitzki and Travis.

eh, the career arc and general waste of talent seems Rasmus-like to me. I'm comfortably calling them lazy or lacking something other than talent to explain it.

and if we're choosing between replacement level players I'd generally go with the overachiever rather than the udnerachiever.

Chris Coghlan seems to have been the victim of a series of defensive experiments. Before 2015, he had played second base twice at the major league level, and had started eight games at third base in 2013. All the rest of the time, he was an outfielder.

In 2015, the Cubs' starting shortstop, Starlin Castro, had an OBP of .271 on August 6. This isn't good. So Joe Maddon had a brainstorm: why not put Coghlan at second? He had played there before, if only briefly. So Coghlan started at second 11 times between August 7 and 23. He wasn't very good defensively, but Maddon only forced him to play the entire game once, and the Cubs went 10-1 during those 11 starts. (The one loss was his complete game at second.)

Then Oakland traded for him, and the A's took it a step further in 2016, starting him at second twice in early April, shifting him to third for 15 games in late April and early May, and then starting him at second for 11 games in mid-May. I'm not surprised that he stopped hitting. He must have been extremely relieved to return to the Cubs, who put him back in the outfield. He had a .407 on-base percentage in September in limited duty, and probably could help the Jays if not forced to face too many lefty pitchers.

Regarding Upton: I think it is very difficult for a player who has been a starter all his life to adjust to being a bench player. It's all too human to think that you can still do what you have been doing all of your adult life (even if, at times, he hasn't been all that good at it), especially when you have been paid over $71 million to do it.

I found him fascinating to watch because he isn't built like other baseball players - he had legs that looked like they were about three-fourths of his body, and it also looked like he swung a much larger bat with a much longer swing than most players. My take is that he was such an enormously gifted athlete that he was able to be successful despite having holes in his game (the high strikeouts are a giveaway here). He was fast enough to track down balls in the outfield and beat the catcher's throw to the second base bag, and he was strong enough to club a ball if it got into his hitting zone (he still is). This worked for a while - he did hit .300 as a 22-year-old - but when he lost some of his ability, he had no Plan B to fall back on. I find it hard to criticize him - the vast majority of professional baseball players aren't good enough to play major league ball at all. Sure, he could have worked harder at his job, but hands up, those of you who are maxing out all of your talents. (My hand is down: I am spending a large part of my Sunday evening researching Chris Coghlan's fielding statistics. Surely that is not the optimal use of my time!)

As for Goins: I assume that the Jays are keeping him around for two reasons. One is as Devon Travis insurance: if Travis gets hurt yet again, the Jays will need Goins to serve as a backup for Tulo and Barney. (And Tulo hasn't historically been durable either.) The other is because he really is a wonderful defender, and it's tough to just give that away. Analytics may tell us that his fielding is more than offset by his awful hitting - but, wow, he makes some amazing plays out there.

No question in my mind that Goins is kept as insurance right now. Travis is very fragile (or must be assumed to be) and Goins is a known quantity. Not a great one, but at least he is very good defensively and while a poor hitter (62 OPS+ in 938 PA) isn't a horrid one (for example, Jonathan Diaz and his 17 OPS+ lifetime in 65 PA) plus Goins played everywhere but catcher and CF last year (even 1 scoreless inning in relief despite allowing 3 baserunners). Sadly Munenori Kawasaki is heading back to Japan after inking a deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, his former NPB club.

Btw, interesting releases this week included Jimmy Rollins, Desmond Jennings, Mark Lowe, Michael Bourn, Joe Nathan, plus Jonathan Papelbon still hasn't signed anywhere thus is available if the Jays are desperate for a closer (haha).

Chris Coghlan seems to have been the victim of a series of defensive experiments. Before 2015, he had played second base twice at the major league level, and had started eight games at third base in 2013. All the rest of the time, he was an outfielder.

In 2015, the Cubs' starting shortstop, Starlin Castro, had an OBP of .271 on August 6. This isn't good. So Joe Maddon had a brainstorm: why not put Coghlan at second? He had played there before, if only briefly. So Coghlan started at second 11 times between August 7 and 23. He wasn't very good defensively, but Maddon only forced him to play the entire game once, and the Cubs went 10-1 during those 11 starts. (The one loss was his complete game at second.)

Then Oakland traded for him, and the A's took it a step further in 2016, starting him at second twice in early April, shifting him to third for 15 games in late April and early May, and then starting him at second for 11 games in mid-May. I'm not surprised that he stopped hitting. He must have been extremely relieved to return to the Cubs, who put him back in the outfield. He had a .407 on-base percentage in September in limited duty, and probably could help the Jays if not forced to face too many lefty pitchers.

No experiment. Coghlan was an infielder coming up. In the minors he has 250 games at 2b vs 130 in the OF. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=coghla001chr
He got shifted to the OF because of Uggla at 2b - though he would probably have been better than Helms/Cantu/Bonifacio at 3b - and the departure of Willingham.
Anyway, it doesn't change the fact that he hadn't played the infield much recently, it does make it more reasonable a move

I think Miguel Castro has been very badly handled and still has tons of upside. In 2014, he spent the greatest amount of his season in Vancouver in short season ball, as a 19 year old. The next year, he started the season as the Blue Jays closer, which seems absurd, especially with the benefit of hindsight. Now Colorado has given up on him despite the fact that he only just turned 22 in December. Normal progression for a 19 year old guy who is having a great season in Vancouver might be to give him a look in full season ball at year end (which the Jays did, giving him 6 appearances), then a year, say, split between Lansing and Dunedin, then a year at New Hampshire, which would bring him to Buffalo this year for his first taste of AAA ball. Instead, he is being DFA'd because he has been hit around in Colorado and in the Pacific Coast League at age 21. I would be all over him if I were the Jays. When he was in camp in 2015 everybody was raving about his stuff. He's only 8 months older then Sean Reid-Foley, 3.5 months older than Connor Greene, and 14 months younger than Jon Harris. He's younger than Anthony Alford, almost 2 years younger than Max Pentecost and only 3 months older than Rowdy Tellez. Get him and give him 3 months in New Hampshire to catch his breath and work on things, then move him up to Buffalo if he's doing well.

With Upton and Bolsinger off the 40 man roster, plus add Schultz and Sparkman to 60 day DL - creating 4 openings - Salty takes 1 spot - I would claim/minor trade(cash) for Miguel Castro & Tyler Goeddel - both have attractive upsides and have options.

I would also claim Nick Franklin and DFA Goins.

If Madison Baumgartner played for the Jays, ( nice dream ) would anybody have him hit for himself ( probably ) or even DH on occasion ? ( maybe ? )

yeah castro is age appropriate for AA still. i would pick him up and start him in A+ and see what happens.

The issue with Castro will be options. Since his option clock started at age 20 in 2015, there's not much margin for error with him. If it takes him a few years to pan out (if he does at all), then it likely won't be with the team(s) that has him in 2017. Still a worth while risk to take if he's available for free. I was extremely against calling up Osuna and Castro at the time. Castro ended up like how I expected both of them to end up, but thankfully Osuna was a beast right out of the gate. Could have ended up a lot worse for him.

The big question with Castro is why Colorado didn't simply option him to the minors.  They chose to DFA him, instead of keeping him in their system.  That's a very odd decision on a player who is still so young.  What do they know about him?

The thing to remember is how few 20 year old pitchers ever pan out, especially ones who haven't passed A ball yet. Castro and Osuna were both only in the low minors before called up. To have impressed the brass enough in spring to get the call up from that far down suggested there was a lot there. I find it amazing that Colorado didn't use up Castro's last option instead of DFA'ing him as there must be a very live arm there still and even if he spends the entire year in the minors he still might earn a slot in a pen or rotation in 2018. At his age that would be a very worthwhile risk for any team, especially one like Colorado where pitchers go to die.

The only reason I could see would be if he is hurt and will need to be DL'ed all year thus since on the 40 man, paid a ML salary to do nothing but heal.

This origin story from Stephen Brunt on Aaron Sanchez is well worth a read. H/t John Lott's twitter feed.

If my memory from a week ago serves, the post-upton fangraphs depth charts projection has us i think 0.2war higher without upton.

Fangraphs depth projections like Pearce better in LF than Upton/Carrera.  But then, they consider that Pearce would be an All-Star second baseman if you just let him play there.  One of the issues with the depth projections and Steamer/ZIPs that underly the projections is the relationship between injury history, position and defence.  In other words, take with a grain of salt. 

Well, I take them with bucketfulls of salt, and they do factor in injuries, else Pearce would be projected even higher.

But the point vis a vis Upton remains.

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
16s
Opening-day payroll calculus: AP has #BlueJays 15th wtop.com/mlb/2017/04/20… while USA Today ranks them 10th usatoday.com/sports/mlb/sal…

Well, I take them with bucketfulls of salt, and they do factor in injuries, else Pearce would be projected even higher.

But the point vis a vis Upton remains.

Only if you consider Upton in isolation.  The projections before Upton's release imagined that Smoak would get most of the at-bats at first base and Upton/Carrera would get most of the at-bats in left-field.  The change in projections assume that Upton's release will result in more PAs for Pearce (mostly in LF) with no change in projected offensive performance.  I think that's entirely wrong.  Prior to Upton's release, the most likely scenario was that Pearce would get significant number of PAs at first base, and stay healthier and perform better than he is likely to now. 

true, but the more overriding point i was seeing was that losing upton isn't actually a loss.....and the same effect would be seen if smoak's PA were reduced in favor of more PA for carrera/coghlan/pompey in LF.....actually, i think the war projections would increase further if that happened.

I hope J Lott is correct. We can all agree that the Jays payroll is U$ 143.94 mil.

Eventually we can calculate if it increased or not from 2016.

The loss of Upton might or might not be important.  If Smoak does not hit and Pearce is the first baseman as of late April (with Carrera in an outfield corner), the club might miss Upton from a depth perspective.

I have no idea about the X factors (motivation, clubhouse chemistry etc) that may have played a role, along with roster numbers crunch, in the decision to release him.  I am not saying that these factors aren't important- I just cannot see them in Upton's case the way that I see them in other cases. 

Griff had an interesting quote from Atkins on the Goins decision: “We decided to go with versatility, handedness and years of control,” GM Ross Atkins explained. “Melvin was extremely professional as a Blue Jay and was certainly a part of the 2016 success.”

Griff noted that Goins looked good at 1B this Spring, a detail I had totally missed. Anyone have a sense of his glove at first?

Great to have baseball back!

"....the club might miss Upton from a depth perspective....."

The need for greater LF depth has been obvious for the entire off-season, and I don't think the Front Office is totally unaware of it.  Pompey and Coghlan could be part of the answer, but I suspect (and hope) that the Front Office is still casting around for upgrades.  By giving up on Upton, they have tacitly acknowledged that they need better LF options, as many of us have been arguing for many months.  I suspect that the search is continuing.  Trades, waiver-wire pickups and even a free-agent signing are still possible.

We might need a new thread soon for the minor-league assignments.  Some of the big-name assignments are already trickling out.  The Fisher Cats have announced that their opening-day roster will include Greene, Reid-Foley, Alford, Urena and Harris.  They could be the team for the prospect-watchers to monitor most closely this season.

The full New Hampshire opening-day roster can be found here:
http://www.milb.com/documents/6/0/6/221966606/2017_Fisher_Cats_Tentative_Opening_Day_Roster_8j2k53qg.pdf

Opening day lineup has Pearce at 1B, Carrera in LF.

The Jays have released their opening-day lineup.  Pearce at 1B and Carrera in LF.   No other surprises.  Travis batting first, then Donaldson, Bautista, Morales, Tulo etc.

Possible explanation for Carrera in LF today:  Estrada is a fly-ball pitcher, and Carrera is a better outfielder than Pearce.

He also has hit very well against Gausman in a very small sample.  But I suspect the defence is the bigger reason.

Sweet.  Good start.  If the lineup features Carrera in LF when a flyball pitcher is throwing for the Jays or a left-hander is pitching for the opponents, that's not a bad use of the talent on hand..