I expect another reliever to be signed before ST. With the bargains that are becoming available, another surprise signing might happen during ST, perhaps something we are not expecting. Minor trades are also within the realm of possibility.

Here's how the roster looks using last 2yrs stats.

* awar for hitters = average of fwar and bwar
* awar for pitchers = average of fwar and ra9war
* stats for SP only as SP, stats for RP only as RP


2B Travis (26): 670pa, .354bip, 119wrc+, 5.1awar, 5.0war/650
3B Donaldson (31): 1411pa, .307bip, 154wrc+, 16.3awar, 7.5war/650
RF Bautista (36): 1183pa, .245bip, 136wrc+, 6.0awar, 3.3war/650
DH Morales (34): 1257pa, .302bip, 120wrc+, 3.0awar, 1.6war/650
SS Tulowitzki (32): 1078pa, .301bip, 101wrc+, 5.7awar, 3.4war/650
C Martin (34): 1042pa, .276bip, 106wrc+, 5.2awar, 3.2war/650
1B Pearce (34): 627pa, .274bip, 113wrc+, 2.2awar, 2.2war/650
LF Upton (32): 767pa, .315bip, 92wrc+, 2.8awar, 2.4war/650
CF Pillar (28): 1212pa, .306bip, 87wrc+, 8.0awar, 4.3war/650

UT Smoak (30): 669pa, .273bip, 99wrc+, 0.7awar, 0.7war/650
OF Carrera (30): 502pa, .326bip, 87wrc+, 0.4awar, 0.5war/650
IF Barney (32): 336pa, .302bip, 89wrc+, 1.8awar, 3.5war/650
C Salty (32): 519pa, .256bip, 83wrc+, 0.7awar, 0.8war/650

(OF Pompey (24): 105pa, .271bip, 78wrc+, 0.5awar, 2.8war/650)



SP Sanchez (24): 41gs, 6.3ip/gs, 74era-, 5.4awar, 4.2war/32
SP Stroman (26): 36gs, 6.4ip/gs, 95era-, 4.0awar, 3.6war/32
SP Happ (34): 63gs, 5.8ip/gs, 84era-, 7.6awar, 3.8war/32
SP Estrada (33): 57gs, 6.1ip/gs, 81era-, 6.5awar, 3.6war/32
SP Liriano (33): 60gs, 5.8ip/gs, 101era-, 3.8awar, 2.0war/32
(SP Harrell (32): 9gs, 5.2ip/gs, 99era-, 0.5awar, 1.8war/32)
(SP Bolsinger (29): 27gs, 5.1ip/gs, 113era-, 0.9awar, 1.0war/32)

RP Osuna (22): 140gms, 143.2ip, 63era-, 3.8awar, 1.7war/65ip
RP Biagini (27): 60gms, 67.2ip, 72era-, 1.0awar, 1.0war/65ip
RP Howell (34): 129gms, 94.2ip, 73era-, 1.1awar, 0.8war/65ip
RP Grilli (40): 103gms, 92.2ip, 89era-, 1.1awar, 0.8war/65ip
RP Floyd (34): 35gms, 44.1ip, 86era-, 0.5awar, 0.7war/65ip
RP Tepera (28): 52gms, 51.1ip, 76era-, 0.1awar, 0.1war/65ip
RP Loup (29): 81gms, 56.2ip, 111era-, 0.1awar, 0.1war/65ip
(RP Barnes (27): 12gms, 13.2ip, 92era-, 0.3awar, 1.2war/65ip)

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/826935525844066305

Not everyone considers the Jays are done. Even I don't think they are.

Rosenthal reports Indians are signing Boone Logan.

One year contract pending a physical for Logan - one year seems much more realistic than the 2 year, 12 million ask he was making.

Cleveland is certainly having a fine offseason. Fangraphs has an article up entitled "Cleveland is winning the offseason". Who do you guys see as winning or losing this offseason?

IMO, we are having an above average offseason (a big change for me) but not close to what Cleveland has done.

Cleveland is having a good off-season, but there are many scenarios that are very good for the Jays in 2017.   Here are a few plausible things that could easily happen for the Jays this year, producing an overall record better than last year:

* The rotation improves.  Stroman, after another few months of strengthening his previously injured leg, could pitch better in 2017 than last year. Liriano will probably pitch better than Dickey. Sanchez could keep improving and could pitch more innings. Estrada and Happ could continue to pitch well.

* The bullpen improves.  Just a bit of good luck and health could achieve this. Some of the bullpen losses and blown saves in the first half of 2016 were a result of bad luck from good pitchers.  A full season from Grilli could help. Continued improvement from Biagini could help.

* Jose Bautista could have a bounce-back season.  His 2016 was hampered by injury and he could easily improve this year.

* Similarly, better health for Russell Martin and Devon Travis could lead to an improved offense.

* Morales and Pearce could compensate for the loss of Encarnacion. 

* Melvin Upton could return to his San Diego hitting performance.  San Diego wasn't very long ago, so this is plausible.  Certainly he can't be any worse than he was for the Jays last season, so he only has one direction to go: up.

If even half of the above scenarios happen, the Jays have a chance to improve in 2017.

Now of course I realize that many things could go wrong this year.  Injuries, slumps, older players declining, young players regressing.....  There are plenty of negative scenarios.  My optimistic scenario above is NOT a prediction.  It's purely an illustration of how, conceivably, the Jays could actually have a better record in 2017 and go deeper into the playoffs.  None of the positive scenarios above are far-fetched fantasy.  They're all credible possibilities, even though of course they're unlikely to all happen simultaneously.

The team that wins the off season usually does not win the regular season. I do like Cleveland, especially if Carrasco and Salazar are 100%. Gammons thinks Boston a tad over rated as they will miss Ortiz more than some think.

If you enter the offseason as a stone lock to win your first division title in 16 years, sign two decent veteran hitters with contact skills, and head into February still a stone lock to win the division, are you eligible for Won the Offseason status? If so I nominate Houston.

I agree with Gammons on Boston. They're losing the good vibes from Ortiz's farewell tour and so you can knock 0.3 WAR off each of their players' projections. That adds up.

Ort and sale do pretty much even out. So i don't see annupgraded roster for the sox this year.

A huge deal for boston will be whether pomeranz and wright's first halfs last year were complete utter flukes or just semi flukes. Because neither was a usable SP in the 2nd half....and neither really had been before last year, either.

that goes for Bogaerts, bradley, and leon as well - all three had scorching starts thanks to massive babips and then faded badly the rest of the way (Bogaerts/bradley faded to mediocre, Leon faded to useless).

the one guy i'm looking at closely to see some possible Ortiz hangover is little pedroia. I think the guy was fading but then suddenly came alive for the farewell tour like he hasn't in a while. wouldn't surprise me if that was pure guts and bro love.

The Phillies signed Coghlan to a minor league deal. It's possible the Jays showed interest and he didn't want to play in Toronto for whatever reason (it takes two to tango in free agency), but he would have been a very good fit here and signed for cheap. It's looking more and more likely that Zeke/Upton will be the LF tandem, and that's a bit disappointing.

I seem to remember Stroman as working on a 'Cutter' to the detriment of his Slider during the Season. He got better in time. Stroman will be much better than everyone expects. After all, most people thought he could be our Ace. He's still that talented.

Last year the Bullpen was Osuna, Cecil, Storen and four other guys. We all saw how that worked out. This year there's Osuna, Howell, Biagini, Grilli, possibly Floyd and the Jays aren't done yet.

Last year Bautista played hurt and missed a lot of time. After receiving great seasons from him, last year was a disappointment. It was still a better year than most of Baseball had. Bautista's healthy this off season and severely motivated.

Pitching framing is basically keeping strikes as strikes. Like most Catcher's defensive stuff, it requires continuous hard work to stay sharp. Saltalamacchia was, at one time, very good at it. He's certainly gotten lazy and sloppy since. If Gibbons trusts him, Martin might play less.

I could go on, but I think you get my point. The 10-day D.L. will be a huge advantage from this point on and make teams better.

Coghlan on a minor league deal would've been great, but I assume he did what I do when looking at the roster - concluded that there wasn't an extra spot for a position player.  If the Jays are thinking Gurriel could be the late season solution for LF, it makes even more sense.  Either way, I want a LF battle rather than a mediocre vet inheriting a role.  We've got Upton, Carrera and Pompey in the mix out of the gate, and Pompey could surprise - last year was a write-off due to injuries, and he'd be a top 10 prospect for us right now if he was still eligible.  Add Ramirez and maybe Gurriel to the mix and I think we can solve LF in-house. 

The one place I disagree with China's 'reasons for optimism' post is the pen ... one more legit option and I'll be more confident.  After Osuna and Howell, Grilli is old, Biagini untested, and the rest of the bunch are destined for the Buffalo shuttle.  I still have no idea why so many people are bullish on Sparkman - very few of these guys stick, unless someone figures the Jays have a new market inefficiency with relievers?

I don't think Houston needed to 'win' the offseason to win next year - they look like a poorer version of the Cubs in 2016, loads of young talent.  Reddick, McCann and Beltran are the vets they needed.  Houston, Cleveland, Boston for their divisions, and then us and, uhh .... for the wild card? 

After Osuna and Howell, Grilli is old, Biagini untested, and the rest of the bunch are destined for the Buffalo shuttle.  I still have no idea why so many people are bullish on Sparkman - very few of these guys stick, unless someone figures the Jays have a new market inefficiency with relievers?

Disagree.
Joe Biagini was hard-tested by fire last year pitching in some of the most important games and John Gibbons trusts him.

As for Sparkman, let's see. Pre-Tommy John he had control and consistency and without the TJ would most likely be Starting for KC this year. Returning 13 months later, working his way back, he had poor results but accompanying numbers were as good as pre-TJ stuff. Spring Training brings him about 22 months from the surgery. He should be 100% by then and all indications are he's lost nothing.

Biagini has 60 big league appearances.  Heck, he has 60 appearances past AA.  That's officially a SSS.  I think pretty much everyone on the Box agrees that relievers are fungible.  So why are we all so convinced that Biagini is the real deal?  Steve freakin' Delabar was an all-star.  How did we pick up Grilli and Benoit for basically free last year?   Because relievers are volatile and fungible. 

As for Sparkman, could someone who disagrees with me on this at least acknowledge that rule v guys seldom stick?  Someone?  Anyone?  ALL rule v picks have some sort of compelling back story ... and yet only a handful of them stick ....

Yeah sparkman is far from a lock, but his status does give him the inside track for a spot. Biagini wasn't just handed a spot - he had a very nice spring (after a shaky 1st couple appearances iirc).

And yeah Biagini is still not a lock to be great either - though his raw stuff combined with his stats across the board are encouraging. I'm a bit worried about his HR rate coming back down to earth though for sure.

As for Sparkman, could someone who disagrees with me on this at least acknowledge that rule v guys seldom stick?  Someone?  Anyone?  ALL rule v picks have some sort of compelling back story ... and yet only a handful of them stick ....

Roberto Clemente, Willie Hernandez and Johan Santana were rule V picks.

AA picked Zech Zinicola in 2009, a minor league reliever with control issues, and returned him in the middle of spring training. That's the type of player you have in your mind.

Sparkman projected as a middle of the rotation starter before he blew his elbow.
He seems to have good control and strikeout pitches.

I don't see any reasons why he wouldn't be able to pitch some low leverage innings.
Like, you know, when the Jays are losing and the other team have their best bullpen arms lined up and the odds of winning are around 5%.

Besides Biagini, the Jays also picked up other guys unlikely to stick like Willie Upshaw, George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Manny Lee, Jose Nunez and Aquilino Lopez who managed 13 saved.

Yup, there have been some great rule v picks throughout the history of the game, and the Jays in particular have gotten great talent from it, but who are the biggest names taken this past half-decade?  Odubel Herrera has been great for the Phillies, but who else even stuck?  Guys like Joey Rickard, Luis Perdomo and Delino Deshields, who at least was kept all year by a contending team in the 2015 Rangers.  But he was terrible last year.  Many teams don't even bother making a pick.  Just taking a quick glance before work, but it looks like Biagini is the second best pick from the 66 guys taken over the last five years,

We already have a bit of a roster crunch with so many positionally limited DH types, so I don't see any 8 man pens in our future - but that means the Buffalo shuttle will be busy with fresh relievers.  I think Sparkman has to win a job, but guys like he and Bolsinger may get a longer rope simply due to the fact that they can't be optioned. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

It depends on the front office. Some GM's don't place any value in the Rule 5. Others may take a shot at a player but lose interest when they see that player in ST.

This front office wants to add as much young controllable talent as it can. They might take the Rule 5 a bit more seriously than other FO's. That doesn't mean every player they pick will pan out, but it might mean they'll be giving those picks a lot more rope during ST.

One thing I remember from last season was how excited Atkins seemed to be about Biagini when they drafted him. He seemed genuinely thrilled that the team was able to get him. I think they can hide Sparkman in the back of the pen in a similar way, and if he turns out to gain Gibby's trust during the season like Biagini did, then you roll with it. If not, every team could use a mop up guy, and Sparkman could be that in a worst case. Then option him in 2018 so he can be SP depth in AAA.

I think I am extremely pessimistic about the Jays this year. They lead the league in Runs Against/ERA last year - it seems very unlikely, no matter which particular starters/defenders might do better, that the team will do any better on that front. All but 10 starts from 5 guys, chewing up 930 IP with very good results to boot, seems very unlikely to happen again. I think it is more likely Sanchez had his career year (lead the league in ERA, fringe CY Young contender, 192 IP) than he will be an every year ace. Hope to be wrong of course, Halladay 2.0 would be great!

Pessimistic about the Jays makes me think they are a .500 team, which is better than most years this site has been around (.500 was the default guess for 15 years). I just see a lot of hopeful filling in the blanks to arrive at a better team. Tis the season for hopeful I suppose, still undefeated in 2017!

I don't have any bold predictions as of now.  I'm watching at least four things in the spring- the Pompey/Carrera/Upton battle for the LF job or parts thereof, and the health of Travis, Pearce and Liriano. 

The club had 102 Pythagorean wins in 2015 and 91 Pythagorean wins in 2016, according to BBRef.  I suppose that the next number in that sequence is 80, but another way to look at it is that the club has had a lot of talent.  It is true that they had uncommonly good health from the pitching staff in 2016, and that they are not very well placed to deal with a couple of injuries in the rotation.  The only plus side is that I can easily see the club getting 220-240 innings out of both Sanchez and Stroman.  They are in their prime as pitchers, and taking a step forward is actually common in the mid 20s. 

The overall health of the team wasn't particularly healthy. I don't see any reason to suspect they will be significantly less healthy this year, other than just random chance.

It seems a little odd to be citing Roberto Clemente and George Bell as evidence to suggest that Glenn Sparkman will probably make the team this year.

The rules of the Rule 5 draft were significantly changed in 2006.  And as Jerjapan points out, very few draftees over the past five years have had any significant impact in the majors. 

It would be great if the Jays manage to strike gold in the draft for the second consecutive year, and Sparkman seems like a good pick, but the odds are against them.

Last year 6 guys (7 if you round) managed 220 innings, 7 managed it in 2015; Stroman was already 11th in IP last year (Happ and Sanchez also top 30), which surprised me to see given how often he struggled to get past 6 innings. Teams simply don't try to get that many more innings out of pitchers than the Jays already did last year.

I can see the scenario where the Jays pitching actually improves - Stroman strands a league average % of runners (63rd of 73 qualifiers in this last year at 68.6%), Sanchez, Estrada, and Happ duplicate last year, Liriano is better than Dickey, the bullpen manages to be league average. And everyone is healthy most of the time, including the best defenders on the team. I can see it, I just don't think it happens this year is all.

All but 10 starts from 5 guys, chewing up 930 IP with very good results to boot, seems very unlikely to happen again.

And 8 of those 10 starts were handed to SP #6, Liriano, by design. Only 2 starts, to Hutchison, were of the Plan B variety.

"....I think Sparkman has to win a job, but guys like he and Bolsinger may get a longer rope simply due to the fact that they can't be optioned....."

I recall many Bauxites in previous seasons being quite angry at the Jays for keeping an "inferior" player on the opening-day roster because he was out of options.  There was the example of Jeremy Jeffress in 2014 for example -- some fans thought the Jays were stupid for giving him a spot on the opening-day roster.  (He ended up being a good reliever for other teams in 2015 and 2016, although his arrest and rehab have cast a bit of doubt over his career.)  I'm a little surprised that a number of fans now are suggesting that the Jays should keep Bolsinger and Sparkman on the roster in the regular season, even if they aren't the best.  Keeping a marginal player on the roster, rather than a better player, is more of a strategy for a rebuilding team, rather than a team with playoff aspirations. 

If Bolsinger and Sparkman are the best choices -- or equal to the best choices -- for the 6th and 7th spots in the bullpen, the Jays should definitely keep them.  If they're significantly worse than their competitors, maybe not.  In the case of Biagini, the Jays weren't just hiding him at the bottom of the bullpen -- they knew he was good.  I'm a little skeptical that the Jays can afford to "hide" two pitchers in the bullpen if they have playoff aspirations, which they do.

I'm actually okay if the 6th and 7th guys in the BP are "wildcard, let's see what we've got" types for a couple weeks.  Those guys are generally coming in in low-leverage situations anyways, rather see what you have then, than wasting those spots on guys that will pitch once or twice a week but have no upside and when you know what you have.

AWeb got me wondering about pitcher durability. I think you are 100% correct or close.

I don't want to jinx any current pitchers so I will list J Morris and T Glavine as 2 that went through their long careers injury free.

There are probably a few more. But I don't know who they are.

Byung Ho Park DFA'd.

I would pick him up.

For the record, both projection systems see our SP as a good bet to be relatively healthy again, based on their histories.

Starts:

Steamer: 32 31 28 28 24
Zips: 31 29 28 27 23

I don't expect anyone to pick up Byung Ho Park and his 9.75m Gtd. over the next 3 yrs.

He projects better than Smoak, who gets paid more.

The Jays may have squeezed as much as possible out of last year's pitching staff and perhaps they may get less out of the same core this year, but you can't say the same about the offense.

2016 totals:

C .216 .308 .358
1B .240 .330 .461
2B .281 .319 .423
3B .269 .379 .503
SS .252 .313 .431
LF .250 .325 .431
CF .267 .308 .379
RF .226 .330 .423
DH .243 .360 .459

I see C, 2B, and RF as spots where the Jays could easily improve because of better depth/health, and I don't really expect negative regression in the other spots other than DH.

I recall many Bauxites in previous seasons being quite angry at the Jays for keeping an "inferior" player on the opening-day roster because he was out of options. There was the example of Jeremy Jeffress in 2014 for example -- some fans thought the Jays were stupid for giving him a spot on the opening-day roster. (He ended up being a good reliever for other teams in 2015 and 2016, although his arrest and rehab have cast a bit of doubt over his career.) I'm a little surprised that a number of fans now are suggesting that the Jays should keep Bolsinger and Sparkman on the roster in the regular season, even if they aren't the best. Keeping a marginal player on the roster, rather than a better player, is more of a strategy for a rebuilding team, rather than a team with playoff aspirations.

Jeffress is a spurious example, at best.

When Bolsinger and Sparkman have each been suspended three times for drugs of abuse and arrested for DUI, I'd expect the Jays to let them go, as well.

I'm surprised you didn't mention Matt Bush. The Jays let him go, too.

Jeffress only got 13ip here. Not really a big deal.

I complained much more fiercely about Esmil Rogers' permanent spot on the roster.

We shouldn't rule out completely the possibility of the Jays making a minor deal with the Royals, in the event they want to keep Sparkman on the roster but option him to AAA. 

There are many games, over the course of a season, that Glenn Sparkman could pitch in. They could be called zero-stress innings because performance doesn't really matter. He doesn't need to beat anyone out for the job because he's a potential asset. He just need to pitch well enough to show he could pitch in MLB.

I see C, 2B, and RF as spots where the Jays could easily improve because of better depth/health, and I don't really expect negative regression in the other spots other than DH. Because that's what I'm doing today, I'll take the opposite view here. I should note that more than anything, my brain is having a hard time adjusting to what a current "good" offensive line looks like. Peak offense (early century) .335/.450 was close to MLB average, but just a couple of years ago in 2014 .315/.385 was. That's After the HR explosion late 2015 and all last year, a "typical" guy looks like what, .320/.420? fangraphs positional projections have C up a bit (who is Juan Graterol and why is he projected to get 100 PAs at C?), 1B down (depending on Smoak playing time), 2B down (projections don't like TRavis much), SS and 3B about the same. In the OF, they have LF worse (only PEarce projects well there, and who knows where he plays), CF a bit better, and RF better thanks to Bautista projecting well. I don't see much upside that doesn't involve uncharacteristic good health. I have no reason to suspect the downside is more likely than the upside, I'm just pessimistic, as I said.

I cannot stress enough how much better an adjusted ops+ or wrc+ stat is than the standard slashline.

And I would say the same for ERA/FIP/xFIP.

The adjusted-to-league-average numbers are the only way to get an accurate picture imho.

"....Jeffress is a spurious example, at best...."

I think you're missing the point, perhaps because I didn't explain it well.

We'll have a long look at Bolsinger and Sparkman in spring training, and we'll be able to see how they compare to their bullpen competitors.  Spring training is not a great sample size, but it will be the most recent sample size, and by the end of the pre-season we'll still have a good sense of how they're all performing.  If we suspect that the Jays are giving jobs to Bolsinger and Sparkman because they are out of options, even though others are performing better, there will be criticism from fans, including Bauxites.  There has always been that kind of criticism in the past when the Jays gave a job to a player for reasons other than actual performance. 

The support that's being expressed for Bolsinger and Sparkman at this point now, when we don't know how they're going to perform in the pre-season and we don't know how the Jays brain trust will evaluate their performance, seems to me to be largely a case of "let's hoard all of our pieces."  That's fine if Bolsinger and Sparkman are the best in the competition, but not if they're not.  And if their competitors are pitching better in late March, I predict some dissent if Bolsinger and/or Sparkman are given jobs largely for roster-juggling reasons. 

They might be the 6th or 7th men in the bullpen, but they can still cost the Jays a loss or two.   Remember Arnold Leon?

These are three of four of John Gibbons most trusted Relievers. These are locks for the Bullpen.

1)Roberto Osuna is the Closer. He is capable of 4 or more outs.
2)Joe Biagini is Late Innings. His absence from the Bullpen weakens it badly. He is capable of more than four outs.
3)J.P. Howell is Late Innings. He is capable of 4 or more outs.
4)Jason Grilli is Late Innings. When it's over, no one knows. Until then, assume he's fine.

This Bullpen is still a work in progress with most decisions mostly premade.

5)New Acquisition. The Jays are still looking at Relievers.
6)Gavin Floyd is Multi-innings capable if healthy and John Gibbons trusts him.

7)Every single one of the above is better than anything else the Jays have in-house. We can argue all we want about them, because until they pitch, it doesn't matter.

It will be interesting to see whose DH + Loogy combo produces better value this year: Cleveland's (Encarnacion/Logan) or Toronto's (Morales/Howell). I like Cleveland's chances, but Morales and Howell could end up being decent acquisitions.

Although the Jays under Shapiro and Atkins have made a number of prudent moves, my concern is that too many of players acquired may end up being average or mediocre (Upton, Smoak, Pearce, Carrera, Saltalamacchia, Howell). I understand what the front office is trying to do - in general, I support their approach - but it might see them fall a bit short in 2017.

We'll have a long look at Bolsinger and Sparkman in spring training, and we'll be able to see how they compare to their bullpen competitors. Spring training is not a great sample size, but it will be the most recent sample size, and by the end of the pre-season we'll still have a good sense of how they're all performing. If we suspect that the Jays are giving jobs to Bolsinger and Sparkman because they are out of options, but several minor-leaguers are performing better, there will be criticism from fans, including Bauxites.

The Jays had a good long look at Jeffress in Spring Training. When Jays fans suspected they gave him a job despite his personal issues, they spoke up. If Jays fans suspect Bolsinger and Sparkman are carried on the roster despite personal or legal issues, I'm sure they'll speak up.

Any support for Sparkman's and Bolsinger's inclusions on the 25-man doesn't currently include any legal or personal issues, as far as I can tell. If either or both get ML jobs out of Spring Training, I don't think I'm the only one assuming it has nothing to do with their ability to stay out of prison, and more to do with their collective ability to retire Major-League hitters.

If the Jays have anyone else in the upper minors who overshadows them, I think we can be confident that whoever that is will make the team no matter how many minor-league options they have.

I was afraid of losing Goins because Tulo and Travis get injured often enough.
Barney is the 1st replacement, then J Diaz and Gurriel who can play both OF and IF. That may be enough.

we also have Jon Berti who is at least, if not more, useful than Diaz. He plays multiple positions and can steal bases. Diaz is probably a bit better defensively but Berti usually supplies more offence.

Diaz has a weaker bat than Johnnie Mac, but is an ace defender and a legit SS, whereas Berti is more of a 2B.  I like his speed, but I wouldn't call him big league depth at this point.  As an offense first utility IF, he at least has to show he can hit in AAA.  Leblejian is still my preference as IF depth past Diaz.  Signing another legit AAAA utility guy / SS wouldn't hurt.

They might be the 6th or 7th men in the bullpen, but they can still cost the Jays a loss or two.   Remember Arnold Leon?

Well, not really. He was very forgettable.

Let's see. April 6, Jays up 5-3 in Tampa. Floyd replaces Happ. Gives a single to Longoria. Strikes out Pearce. Jennings hits a line drive. Leon replaces Floyd! Gives a home run to Souza. Beckham lines out to right field. Morales replaces Leon.

I really don't expect Sparkman to be used like that. Floyd was setting up. Gibby panicked and pulled him out.

Then on April 9, Dickey gave 7 runs to Boston. Leon came in and pitched 2 innings allowing 1 run.
Biagini pitched a scoreless 8th. And Osuna, for some reason, pitched the 9th.

This year, Grilli should be pitching the 8th and not being replaced until he blows the save. Maybe Howe or Floyd could come in then.

Note that Leon cleared waivers, had 2 starts for Buffalo where his ERA was 2.25 before he was released in May so he could pitch in Korea.

I dunno Scottt ... a run is a run.  I don't think there really is such a thing as a sheltered spot in the pen anymore, with managers making all kinds of moves to get the handedness advantage.  Arnold Leon was worth trying if the team thought he could contribute, but a contending team carrying guys that they don't think can contribute?  I just don't get it.

grilli's not good enough to be the 8th inning guy imo.

he fits best as a matchup righty in the 6th/7th. can't count on the 40yr old to be much more than that.

The Jays are probably the mystery team in on Sergio Romo. His acquisition lets Biagini transition into a possible Starter's role.

I forgot Urena as part of the infield back up plan. Hopefully he can provide defense well enough.

The 40 man has 9 OFs. Pillar, Bautista and Upton will be on the team. If Alford, Ramirez, Pompey, Gurriel and Ceciliani are to play everyday for development reasons, then they will be in the minors. So Zeke makes the team as the 4th OF.

I am going through the 40 man roster. For sure there will be many changes. A few before ST. I expect some in ST.

I don't know how good our NRIs are. Floyd probably makes the team.

We have a lot of relievers. Only a few will be diamonds in the rough, maybe none. Loup certainly was a diamond. Every year someone breaks through and surprises. I expect the same this year.

I don't see a 6th, 7th and 8th SP if we need it. We could lose one of our top 5 in ST. Biagini is the 1st replacement out of ST. I imagine every team will want rotation help. I would not be surprised if teams are getting knocked out of contention because of their rotation issues. I mean the very strong teams. Like LAD if NY Mets, Washington, ST Louis and SF stay healthy and over perform.

Anyone have any thoughts on the sanctions against the Cardinals for that data breach scandal?

According to MLBTradeRumors, the Cards forfeit the 2017 #56 and #75 draft picks and $2M cash to the Astros. As well, of course, the Cards' former scouting director is serving a 46-month prison term and has effectively been handed a lifetime ban from working in Major League Baseball.

The U.S. legal system must've been leaned on pretty hard to set a precedent with the prison term (murderers, child molesters, and Ponzi wizards have spent less time locked up) but I'm more curious about everyone's thoughts about MLB's judgment against the Cardinals organization. Too harsh? Too lenient? What do you think?

The U.S. legal system must've been leaned on pretty hard to set a precedent with the prison term (murderers, child molesters, and Ponzi wizards have spent less time locked up)

They ARE trying to make an example of people convicted of hacking, aka cybercrime for some strange reason.. Can't imagine what.. (sarcasm tag)

Computer hacking is considered espionage lately with harsh penalties possible depending on the severity of the Offence.

Well, I was more interested in discussion of the MLB sanctions, but since it's been mentioned, I have no problem with severe punishments for crime, as long as the punishment is fitting for the crime committed. Any crime that robs someone of their life or reasonable ability to live a healthy life (violent crimes, including sexual abuse crimes) should be punished harshly. Financial crimes (of which computer hacking, at least in this case, are included) should be punished in accordance with the amount of money stolen or the amount of financial damage done. A corporation that's been robbed through hacking or a bunch of people who've lost their life savings is awful, but that money can be rebuilt. I know there's a gray area between the two (an armed robbery is a horribly scarring experience for employees and customers stuck in the middle of it) and even a Ponzi scheme that robs someone of their life savings can cause that person irrepairable emotional harm - some people robbed in those crimes have committed suicide. On the other hand, someone who is murdered, or horribly mutilated, or sexually abused, is never going to have a chance to recoup the type of losses they suffer as a result of the crime.

Sorry for getting off-topic. I'm really more interested in discussion of the sanctions against the Cards though; the legal issues aren't really relevant to a baseball forum.

Leon got a busted save, but he wasn't credited with the loss. He came in with one out and the tying run at 3rd.
Any pitcher could have lost that game. 

Gibbons assigns roles to his relievers. Osuna is there to get the save.
In April last year, the roles were not set. Storen was wild. Cecil was ineffective.
There was no bridge to Osuna and had to throw low leverage innings just to get in the game.
This year, Osuna doesn't have to earn the closer job.
This year, Grilli has the setup job until he loses it, probably not in April.
This year, Howell should be the go to guy with the tying run at 3rd.

Last year the Jays got Scott Feldman and he allowed 15 runs in 15 innings.
Benoit was lights out for the Jays and only allowed 1 run in almost 24 innings, but he  had allowed 16 in roughly the same number of innings with the Mariners.
The year before that, Lowe had been very good with Seattle but was barely average in Toronto.
Hawkins was better, but he faded at the end and was completely useless in the playoffs.

The one thing I know for sure is that if Sparkman is half-decent as a middle reliever, we'll probably see more teams pick up pitchers in the rule v and stick them in the pen in the future.

That's quite all right Parker. The biggest issue is the disadvantage of extra two picks Houston gets that 28 other teams don't get.

According to Rosenthal, looks like the Jays have added reliever Joe Smith on a one year deal. I'm a fan, if only because I like watching funky deliveries.

The Smith move should make for a solid pairing with Howell.

I like the Smith signing. Good career numbers, and last year was only a little worse than usual. He gets RHB out at a high rate, so he could be a good rightie specialist in the pen. He has held RHB to a .212 AVG over his career. My only question mark: I'm curious why he didn't make the Cubs playoff roster last season.

I like the Smith signing too. Unless you are an elite team (Cubs, Dodgers, etc...) I will always be against spending big on the bullpen. A number of signings of potentially good relievers is the goal. BTW, Smith is one of these guys who always outperforms his FIP...I think 9/10 years he's pitched.

I like the J.Smith signing. Was hoping they'd grab 2 good relievers, and they have. The pen looks like a decent group now, with Osuna, Grilli, Biagini, Howell and Smith, plus 2 from the dozen or so candidates rounding things out. Should be lots of movement in season between the Jays and Bisons, and maybe one of the group takes a step forward and establishes himself as a solid big leaguer. Now they'll have to drop somebody from the 40-man to make room for Smith. There's a few candidates. I would expect Graterol or Leone, but Dermody, Girodo, C.Smith and Ceciliani might be considered as well.

I like the way this team looks. Should be a good 2017 season.

To add both J.P. Howell and Joe Smith officially to the Roster, two people need to be moved from the 40-Man Roster. Decisions are expected by Monday. I think who moves gives us insight into Shapiro/Atkins thinking.

I'm more reserved with the Smith signing. Gibby has been very bad at keeping LOOGYs away from right handed hitters.
I'm afraid this is going to be more of the same. As a sidearmer, Smith as never fared well against lefties and there are a lot of dangerous left handed bats in the division. Still, he could be very useful against big RH bats.

Probably a big notch over Bolsinger, at any rate.

He had hamstring issues last year, which limited his use with the Angels and the Cubs.

We still don't know if the Jays are going after a Left Fielder this Offseason. They may not be done with the Bullpen either. What I am sure of is the Jays signing a Starter or two (non-guaranteed contracts) as emergency options in case of injury to any one of the Pitchers.

Smith spent 5 years in Cleveland. Is Shapiro sentimental or just the type of guy who stays in touch?

Joe Smith is coming off a 3 year $15.75M deal where it was an even $5.25M per year. Guesses on this one year deal? $3m?

I don't know the terms of the Smith signing, so cannot comment about the value.

He is a good addition in baseball terms.  He's been an effective pitcher against both RHBs and LHBs, although better against RHs.  He's a perfect complement for Howell. One option now is to use Biagini (or Bolsinger) in longer 2-3 inning roles, and have him ready to move into the rotation that way rather than in the rotation in Buffalo.

He's been clearly worst than average against lefties over his career with fluctuations from year to year.
In 2015, for example, RHBs had an OBP of .261 against him but LHBs were .370, which is not what I call effective.
That's pretty much Aaron loup facing a RHB.

I am also on board with the Smith signing. He was my number 1 choice among remaining affordable relievers. I think it is likely they are done for the time being unless a super bargain falls in their lap. I think the FO might like to save a little in case a Liriano type deal, or anything else of interest, pops up during the season.

LHBs are hitting .244/.337/.369 against Smith over his career.  His platoon splits are only modestly different from an average RHP.  For comparison sake,  LHBs have hit .245/.355/.397 against Jason Grilli over his career, and about the same over the 2013-16 period.  Even Roberto Osuna has given up a .221/.271/.412 line against LHBs in his career. 

Since 2011, LHH have hit .220/.308/.337 against him in 170 innings. He should be fine being used for a full inning. If he shows that he can't get lefties out as the year goes on then Gibby will have to improvise, but he shouldn't have to be used as a "ROOGY". A FIP beating GB pitcher should benefit from the team's infield defense. If it's for around what Howell got ($3M), which I suspect it is, then it's a solid deal.

He's Closed before so should he be considered a Backup Closer/Late Innings type pitcher?

if it's the same deal as howell i'm happy.

i don't like going back any further than 2yrs (without weighting numbers), so last 2yrs:

Smith: 62gms/yr, 58.2ip/yr, 90era-, 98fip-, 92xfip-, 0.5awar/yr

Those are plain solid numbers in a non-specialist role. They would look even better if he was just used as a ROOGY.

The big question is whether his massive spike in HR (career worst HR rate by a longshot) last year was a fluke outlier or a deterioration in performance.

I love the Howell and Smith signings. Both are great stopgap options to prop up a bullpen that doesn't have any promising internal options this year.

Another apparent value move by the FO.  Looks like there was something to their mantra of patience.

Used correctly, Smith could be great - he's certainly about as consistent as a middle reliever gets, 70+ games a year for five years till last, when he had a couple of DL stints.  Interestingly, he only has 68 career minor league games as a 3rd round pick.  I've always liked that draft strategy, identify and fast track a reliever. 

I think he was left of the Cubs roster due to a glut of talent more than anything - they had about 14 pitchers that could have made many rosters.  I recall Madden saying he liked a bit of funk in the pen when they got him.

I'm with Eephus - he'll be fun to watch. 

I feel Howell and Smith are the type of relievers that made the Orioles' pen so good last year.
I'm just not confident in Gibbons'ability to create favorable match ups.

I'd be really happy to be wrong here.

Same here. If there's anything I've learned in my line of work, the tools provided are only as good as the man who uses them.

The season hasn't even begun yet, and already people are making a lot of vague jabs at Gibbons, without providing data to back it up. Could we perhaps wait until the season has begun, so that we have concrete examples that we can all discuss and analyze?

I actually think we had a very rigorous and ongoing debate about Gibbons last season, in which evidence was being provided by all sides. That was a good debate, because the season was underway and we could evaluate specific cases. But in the off-seaon, we have nothing but vague impressions to toss around. Let's hold off until April, perhaps?

Looking at 2nd LHP in the Bullpen options:
1) Aaron Loup has gotten progressively and consistently worse every year. Presently, at best, he's a L.O.O.GY - possibly a little more, possibly a little less.
2) Matt Dermody had an uneven first appearance with the Jays. The question is, "Did he learn anything?" He should be a consideration to either start in the Bullpen or a quality call-up.
3) Ryan Borucki is a Starter who's making progress in the Minors, but he might benefit from a year in the Bullpen. He might be a year away from this, but it's always an option.
4) Chad Girodo pitched effectively, then the Hitters adjusted - but can he adjust? He only gave up one run in five of his 14 appearances - can he approve?

And it gets worse:
5) T.J. House is barely an MLB Pitcher.
6) Brett Oberholtzer is a replacement level 5th Starter.
7) Jeff Beliveau might be good enough, but I don't know.

Looking at another RHP in the Bullpen options:
1) Gavin Floyd pitched very well and was over worked until injured. Gibbons trusted him. If he's healthy, I think he makes the Team.
2) Glen Sparkman is the new Rule 5 pick and is favoured to make the Bullpen Roster. He's the only one who can determine if he makes the Bullpen.
3) Danny Barnes pitched well - might be better. He has a good chance to make the 'Pen.
4) Ryan Tepera pitches well enough to be in the Bullpen.

There are more, but not enough room for more than one.

I'm just evaluating the new acquisition. Baseball is a situational sport.
Just like the value of Bautista changes if he's playing RF, LF, 1B, or DH, the value of a pitcher depends on how he is used.
I'm assuming Bautista will play right field, because that's where Gibbons usually play him.

Can't wait for spring training.

I didn't think my criticism of Gibbons was particularly vague. To be as specific as possible, he doesn't know how to manage a bullpen, he doesn't know where to put position players in the field, and he has inexplicable favorites being gifted with far more playing time than they've earned.

The best things ever said about Gibbons all fall into the "players' manager" category, which is an old school way of saying "he's been given a team that can't lose, but he's not quite incompetent enough to force them to lose."

I'm going to go out on a limb with a prediction for the 2017 season here - if the team makes the playoffs again (barring injuries or dropoffs to key talent that causes other AL East teams to finish below .500) then the Gibbons supporters will want to give Gibbons credit for the team's success. If the team misses the playoffs for pretty much any reason and Gibbons is let go at the end of the season, the Gibbons supporters will be saying it wasn't his fault and there was nothing he could do to make the team better.

I'm not waiting until April to get that prediction on record, because I don't see any reason to wait that long, unless the Jays are trading for Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout before the season starts.

Bullpen since Gibbons came back in 2013:

1976.2ip (22nd MLB, 12th AL)
92era- (11th MLB, 6th AL)
WPA (22nd MLB, 11th AL)
WPA/LI (13th MLB, 7th AL)
12.0fwar (15th MLB, 7th AL)
15.9ra9war (12th MLB, 7th AL)


And he hasn't exactly been handed a stacked bullpen of dependable relievers during this stretch, either.

Hard to argue he's done a bad job there, imo.

Gibbons has one job, to win games. To do that he plays players that he trusts. Blue Jay competition is over-rated. We have improved D at 1B, a healthy Bautista in RF, better defense in LF with Saunders gone. Yet the Jays aren't getting good D ratings.

"....To be as specific as possible, he doesn't know how to manage a bullpen, he doesn't know where to put position players in the field, and he has inexplicable favorites being gifted with far more playing time than they've earned...."

A sweeping generalization of that ilk is actually more revealing of your own biases and lazy thinking than it is of any truth on the ground. It reads like an attempt to troll us. A little more nuance, please, Mr. Parker.

"....I'm going to go out on a limb with a prediction for the 2017 season here -- if the team makes the playoffs again (barring injuries or dropoffs to key talent that causes other AL East teams to finish below .500) then the Gibbons supporters will want to give Gibbons credit for the team's success. If the team misses the playoffs for pretty much any reason and Gibbons is let go at the end of the season, the Gibbons supporters will be saying it wasn't his fault and there was nothing he could do to make the team better...."

A bold and courageous prediction, sir! It is indeed true: supporters will support, and haters will hate.

That's a pretty large solid limb that you've bravely ventured out on.

And he hasn't exactly been handed a stacked bullpen of dependable relievers during this stretch, either. Hard to argue he's done a bad job there, imo.

Low innings, average overall numbers... far, far below average WPA. So, you don't see any obviously outlying numbers there?

On a team that's had a well-above-average offense during his tenure?

Has he been cursed with nothing but pitchers who only do their jobs when the game isn't on the line?

slightly below average in IP and WPA, slightly above average in runs allowed and WPA/LI, average ish overall. Pretty good job given that he hasn't exactly been given a bunch of dependable guys to make his job easier.

I don't think this Team has to worry about Offense. Kendrys Morales should hit very well here, whether he equals or exceeds Edwin's numbers are immaterial. He's here to hit and break up the long string of right-handed hitters. We have a healthy Jose Bautista who's extremely motivated. Steve Pearce and Justin Smoak will hit what they hit. I don't see drop offs at 2B, SS, 3B, C and CF. The Backup Catcher is not Josh Thole.

Russel Martin gets the most out of each Pitcher and he gets the best out of each Pitcher. As long as he's the Jays' Catcher, they should challenge for top Pitching Numbers.

As pessimistic as some posters are, I see a return to the Playoffs for the Jays and I don't see any reason they won't win the East.

Does "below-average" in IP mean that the team has less relief innings, or more?

I was assuming it meant less, meaning that Gibbons' starters have gone deeper into games than average. Based on that, above-average in runs allowed means that Gibbons actually HAS been given a bunch of dependable guys, because his bullpens give up less runs than the league average. His bullpens also, on average, hurt their teams more than they help them.

So, with a bullpen that gives up less runs than average, but find ways to help their team's chance of winning games quite a bit less than average, does that mean that Gibbons' problem is that he ever has bullpens full of relievers who are only good when they don't have a lead worth protecting, or a lead big enough that protecting it isn't an issue? You can make that argument, I suppose, but again, you'd think Gibbons would want his best relievers (usually the ones least likely to hurt their team's chance to win) in games where it's important enough to make a difference.

Or does it mean that Gibbons' bullpens face more "clutch" hitters than average? Since "clutch" hitting has pretty much been universally debunked by anyone who favours advanced statistics, it's hard to argue that his bullpens have been continually victimized by the rest of the league's best "clutch" hitters.

I'm wondering why, based on the statistics you produced yourself, that Gibbons' bullpens with above-average numbers in general, would find ways to produce below-average WPA without any questions about Gibbons' bullpen management.

It looks as if ZiPS really likes current and former Red Sox prospects Moncada, Margot, Devers, Benintendi, Kopech, Espinoza -- all of whom are in the top 35 prospects for 2017 (Tellez is #79).

Gosh, even the purely data-driven prospect lists are biased in favour of the Red Sox. The conspiracy runs even deeper than some Bauxites thought.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/18559233/zips-top-100-mlb-prospects-2017

The Red Sox are going to be monstrous for the next three or four years. And the Yankees are coming around again in a year or two. If there's one thing Anthoupoulos might have done right, it was to bet the farm on contending in 2015 (I say "might" because he also bet the farm on contending in 2013-14.) It didn't work out quite as well as fans would've liked, but I have to admit it was the right time to strike, if you have to bet your job on going all-in for three seasons.

Now Jays fans want the team to keep trying to contend, but it's just not going to happen. Anthopoulos loaded up on a ton of aging talent, the team has no impact prospects close to the Majors, and two of their division rivals DO.

I feel that Shapiro and Atkins are making the right decision with the stopgap moves for the next couple seasons - some prospects will hopefully be contributing to the core of the team by 2019, and if they can hang on to Stroman and Sanchez (and they both continue to earn their keep) then the team could be poised to contend again. Right now though, it's hard to see anyone on the current team improving, but easy to see a lot of guys regressing, and that includes the big free agents they let walk the last couple years. Price and Encarnacion weren't going to win the World Series for the Jays in 2019.

"Does "below-average" in IP mean that the team has less relief innings, or more?

I was assuming it meant less, meaning that Gibbons' starters have gone deeper into games than average. Based on that, above-average in runs allowed means that Gibbons actually HAS been given a bunch of dependable guys, because his bullpens give up less runs than the league average. His bullpens also, on average, hurt their teams more than they help them."

Below average means below average.

The Jays at 1976.2ip by RP the last 4yrs come in a tick under the median average of 2016.0ip - 39.1ip to be exact, or just under 10ip per year.



"So, with a bullpen that gives up less runs than average, but find ways to help their team's chance of winning games quite a bit less than average, does that mean that Gibbons' problem is that he ever has bullpens full of relievers who are only good when they don't have a lead worth protecting, or a lead big enough that protecting it isn't an issue? You can make that argument, I suppose, but again, you'd think Gibbons would want his best relievers (usually the ones least likely to hurt their team's chance to win) in games where it's important enough to make a difference.

Or does it mean that Gibbons' bullpens face more "clutch" hitters than average? Since "clutch" hitting has pretty much been universally debunked by anyone who favours advanced statistics, it's hard to argue that his bullpens have been continually victimized by the rest of the league's best "clutch" hitters.

I'm wondering why, based on the statistics you produced yourself, that Gibbons' bullpens with above-average numbers in general, would find ways to produce below-average WPA without any questions about Gibbons' bullpen management."

That seems a needlessly complicated analysis.

Some stats are a bit above average, some a bit below. Overall "average" seems a pretty solid description of the bullpen's performance since Gibbons came back as manager.

This despite him not being blessed with the dependable proven vets that many other teams have had.

Greenfrog I'm not sure how zips does with prospects, tbh. Never really looked at it before.

KATOH at midseason last year had them like this:

11.Benintendi
22.Moncada
90.Devers

Below average means below average.

Alright, I'll try to be more specific: does "below-average" mean Toronto RP's have pitched a below-average number of innings? Or does "below-average" mean that RP's have been forced to pitch more innings than the average team?

That seems a needlessly complicated analysis.

Feel free to simplify it, then. You posted a table of numbers and didn't provide any analysis whatsoever. Since you understand all the statistics you're posting, I don't feel like I should have to explain this, but I will anyway. What I was trying to say was that a team that has mostly average RP numbers but well-below-average RP WPA is the fault of poor field management. The bigger gap between overall numbers and WPA, the worse the manager looks, because the rest of the numbers show a solid group of RP's that somehow pitch worse in close games. As I said, that's either the fault of an entire bullpen of guys who somehow all choke... or it's the fault of a manager who, in close games, puts the wrong pitchers in at the wrong times. I don't really know how to be more clear about that.

they have pitched about 40ip fewer innings than the median over the last 4yrs. so about 10ip fewer than average per year.

Below Average: IP, WPA
Above Average: ERA, WPA/LI

But just a little above and below average in each case. No numbers i can find stand out as exceptional or awful imo.

And that's with Cecil and Loup being by far his most used relievers over that time.

Top 10 IP

Cecil 205.0
Loup 194.2
Osuna 143.2
Delabar 113.2
Janssen 98.1
Redmond 94.2
McGowan 68.2
Biagini 67.2
Hendriks 64.2
Sanchez 59.1

and I mean not one of those guys was actually a successful RP before Gibbons used them there. he had to feel out each one.

and then 58 other RP used over that time.

now i don't mind that kind of bullpen strategy but he hasn't exactly had a wealth of dependable known quantities to work with here.

now i don't mind that kind of bullpen strategy but he hasn't exactly had a wealth of dependable known quantities to work with here.

That's true, but I still disagree that Gibbons should be given significant credit for turning nobodies into solid bullpen arms. I'd argue it's more a case of the front office finding diamonds in the rough and smart buy-low candidates. Granted, it's most likely a combination of the two - Gibbons hasn't somehow ruined every reliever to come through Toronto, obviously.

I still don't like his bullpen usage, though. There's no reason the relievers can't have a WPA more in line with the rest of the numbers you posted.

yeah i go back and forth on that myself. sometimes i feel like blaming him but then wonder if i can really blame him for, say, cecil pooping his pants every time he was looked at as the relief ace.

A lot is being written recently about prospects on various sites. I have enjoyed the reading.

Our #2 is Reid-Foley. After singing his praises one writer suggested that he could be called up to help the pen this year if needed. That he could be very good. Also said staying a starter is best for his long term development.

This is a very cheap way to strengthen the pen. It worked with J Key and A Sanchez, with no harm done. Osuna's case is a little different.

I like this idea as a way of cheaply making our team more competitive.

I like this method for C Greene. If he is having a decent year then he could be ready for a promotion. He needs to be protected for next years Rule 5 draft any way and I fully expect him to be a Sept call up.

I still don't like his bullpen usage, though. There's no reason the relievers can't have a WPA more in line with the rest of the numbers you posted.

It's a weird thing how the Jays relievers seem to pitch their worst in the highest leverage situations. I don't know if it's Gibbons' fault or what but it's really annoying. Of course that undoubtedly contributes to the Jays annually bad record in one run games and their coming short of their Pythag record by at least a few games every season.

It's a weird thing how the Jays relievers seem to pitch their worst in the highest leverage situations. I don't know if it's Gibbons' fault or what but it's really annoying. Of course that undoubtedly contributes to the Jays annually bad record in one run games and their coming short of their Pythag record by at least a few games every season.

Yeah, it's really frustrating. The knee-jerk reaction is to blame Gibbons (of which I'm obviously guilty, rightly or not) but I do wonder about other possible causes. It's not like the defence is committing more errors or blowing makeable plays exclusively in late innings of close games.

The only theory I have other than sub-optimal bullpen management is a general makeup issue of the bullpen arms, but that's almost getting into the "his girlfriend is a six, at best - it proves he lacks confidence" territory, which is irrational to the point of comic relief.

One way or another it's a frustrating issue, but an admittedly fascinating one.

Gibbons generally has done a serviceable job at the bullpen when he has had lots of decent options.  I don't think he has done a good job of leveraging his best relievers (at least so far in his career) when the "trusted" options have been more scarce.  I imagine that is why the front office has spent some money on veteran relievers in the off-season so that he can (hopefully) have some confidence with them from the beginning of the season.

last year i'm pretty sure is the first year where even one guy projected to be his high lev guy from spring training actually flourished in the role - osuna. and even then his #2 and #3 imploded early on - storen and cecil.

and in the previous few years he witnessed his other projected high lev guys like santos, janseen, cecil, delabar, loup etc inplode as well.

The key this year imo is that Osuna and Biagini continue to be reliable guys in the 8th and 9th able to go more than 3 outs when needed. If they can do that, then it should be pretty simple tp keep grilli howell smith effective in more selective roles.

but if Biagini implodes, then once again the bullpen is touch and go.

I am making no assumptions about how Gibbons will use his relievers in April. He might have Grilli again in the 8th inning "hold" role, for instance.  CF's suggestion to tone down the criticism until the bell rings makes a lot of sense. 

I had a quick look at the April schedule.  The Jays have 3 days off before April 18, so Gibbons should have a chance to get the bullpen the right amount of work while the starters are getting fully stretched out. 

Today is Babe Ruth's birthday.  February 6 is always a 70 degree day in Baltimore.

Ruth was described as "incorrigible" at the reformatory school he attended as a boy.  He was that, but also lovable.  Who says the human condition isn't interesting!

I'm personally fascinated by this Otani character's attempt at ironman baseball. I'm sure most of you have read the articles by now but just in case:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/is-shohei-otani-the-next-babe-ruth-020617

I hope the Jays break the bank for this guy whenever he gets posted. There's just so many ways that a signing like that can go right.

Given Otani's preference to hit, he'll probably end up with a National League team (take a wild guess which one).

Interesting proposal by mlb to raise the bottom of the strike zone to the top of the kneecap. Could boost offense significantly. The players' union has to approve the proposal. I'd like to see it happen.

Could be a career killing change for guys who live in the bottom of the zone like Stroman.

Interesting article on what's wrong with Pillar at the plate:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/02/one-potential-fix-for-kevin-pillars-hitting-woes/

I was wondering about Stroman as well if these strike zone changes go through. He lives on that 2-seamer down.

Umps can't call the zone as in the rulebook as it is. Changing it isn't going to help.
Anyways, I'm NOT in favor of more offense, so I'd probably tune out of baseball if they made these changes, it just seems like a knee-jerk reaction.
 A reduced skill-set is one of the things that happens with an increased player-pool. At the moment defense is being valued over offense. A rule-change like this would just make for worse baseball as people had to adjust to what they've been doing forever.

I would give a big Thumbs up to the new strike zone - Umps call way too many low strikes - if offense goes up, so be it.

Yeah no. The strike zone has been creeping lower and lower to the point where it's below the knees now. Used to be that guys like Clemens, Maddux, Halladay would get those calls because they were that damn good, controlling the placement of their pitches right at the edge. Nowadays anyone with a hot fastball and above average control can zip it in at the knees and hope it's called a strike. A guy like Stroman would definitely suffer while someone like Tulo would rake. He's a low ball masher who's seen the strike zone drift below his knees over the last 5 years. Betances would suffer big time. That dude gets so many calls that are on the outside edge of the strike zone it's not even funny.

There aren't a lot of guys who provide consistent offence in baseball. I think a lot of sluggers and offensive players are mistake hitters. Raising the strike zone back to the knee instead of "below the hollow of the knee" won't magically turn baseball into a steroid era and bad pitchers who serve up meatballs will still be doing the same thing.

I'm in favour of the rule change because it means less instances where a batter will strike out because of a "pitcher's pitch" below the knees that 1) probably wasn't a strike for most of the history of baseball before 2) is impossible to barrel up or hit (see Betances, D)...how is that exciting or fair?

Maybe if pitchers were maxing out at 94/95mph I could see this rule sticking but with the heat they pack and the shorter stints of starters and the bullpen I don't think it's fair or good to watch 10+ strikeouts a game against one team. Then again I only watch the Blue Jays so maybe I'm biased on the strikeouts...

1yr/$3m + 500k incentives for Smith. Same as Howell pretty much. Solid.

I doubt the PA will ever approve strike zone changes. Pitchers: yes. Hitters: no. The PA is going to be far too divided.

As for the intentional walk thing, the numbers have been crunched by several entities, and the time cut in the average game from changing the rules?

29 seconds.

Honestly, I'd rather see more of Gary Sanchez passing balls on intentional walk pitches, or Vlad Guerrero types reaching across the plate and hitting the ball when the fielders aren't expecting to have to do anything. If pitchers and catchers are instructed to walk someone on purpose, I feel they should actually have to do the work. The time savings seems insignificant.

If that's MLB's best argument for changing baseball rules, they should go back to the drawing board.

Or they could enforce existing rules. That'd be okay too.

robot umps.

All the potential changes to the game that I have read do not do a single thing to improve the game or make it more palatable for non-fans. I'm not sure what Manfred is trying to fix in the first place. The game is what it is. Either you like it or you don't.

They do need to make the games shorter and there are a lot of decent ways to do that. The game was the same decades ago but they took half the time.

1yr/$3m + 500k incentives for Smith. Same as Howell pretty much. Solid.

Thumbs up from me too.  The bullpen reconstruction was well done. 

Speaking of the bullpen, happy birthday to Roberto Osuna.  Twenty-two freaking years old!

I'm not a fan of spending 6m+ on 2 relievers who couldn't make their 2016 teams' playoff roster while the team plans on playing Carrera and Smoak regularly vs. RHP.

They basically got Howell and Smith for what someone like Blevins was projected to get, and they may have had to give more years in order to seal the deal with the latter. I wasn't a fan of allocating a ton of money towards the pen and back-up catcher, but they were able to get three useful players for about $7-8M combined with minimal risk. Not bad.

I'm not a fan of spending 6m+ on 2 relievers who couldn't make their 2016 teams' playoff roster while the team plans on playing Carrera and Smoak regularly vs. RHP

It's not much money, and the club has better options than Carrera and Smoak against RHP (Pompey/Pearce/Tellez).  That one is in Gibbons' hands mostly, although Pompey and Tellez have something to say about it by their performances in spring training and in April.  Pearce's health is also a question.  We'll see what happens in the spring.

The $500,000 in incentives in the Smith contract is interesting. Bautista also got an incentive clause in his new contract -- an incentive for attendance. If I recall rightly, Anthopoulos never gave incentives in contracts (or possibly the owners wouldn't permit it). Whatever the reason, the Jays had a clear "no incentives" policy for a few years. I'm glad that the policy has changed. Giving incentives seems like a creative way of rewarding a player who performs well, and there really doesn't seem like too much of a danger that the player will end up disgruntled or resentful if he doesn't earn the maximum. (Frank Thomas was the exception, I guess.)

robot umps.

Dude. Yes. So much this.

The Yankees have signed Chris Carter for 1/3.

The Yankees have signed Chris Carter for 1/3.

What a sign of the role of sabermetrics in today's version of major league baseball! The guy who leads the league in homeruns ends up getting paid like a LOOGY. There was a time where this would not have been so.

I was thinking the same thing, Chuck.  Carter is a decent platoon option at first base and PH.

Joe Carter's middle name is Christopher.  There's a lot of similarity between Chris Carter's slash line and a Joe's when he got a little older.  Joe had quite a bit more speed as a young player.

Hard not to like that deal for NYY

Everyone is signing solid 1B/DH options at slightly-better-than MLB minimum, all of a sudden.

It's too bad the Jays didn't get Edwin at 4/80, though...

The Jays are not finished with this Offseason until I hear Mark Shapiro or Ross Atkins say, "We are done."
When do the 40-Man decisions get made? Two players need to be removed for J.P. Howell and Joe Smith to be officially signed.
I expect a Long Relief/6th Starter type to get signed - a lot of those still available on the Market.
There is no way Ezequiel Carrera platoons with Melvin Upton Jr, totally unsuitable. If Melvin becomes the full-time Left Field, Carrera is 4th OF. If he platoons with Dalton Pompey, Carrera is DFA'd. There's always the possibility of a new acquisition via trade.
For people that have commented poorly about the two new Relievers the Jays have acquired, I respect the Jays' opinion of them more.

"the team plans on playing Carrera and Smoak regularly vs. RHP"

I love it when posters post their opinion as if its a fact :)

Over the past 3 years:

Smoak's OPS against RHP is .717 (610 ABs)
Pearce's OPS against RHP is .811 (605 ABs)
Carrera's OPS against RHP is .639 (395 ABs)
Upton's OPS against RHP is .649 (915 ABs)

I think they'll try to get Pearce's bat in the lineup against RHP if he can stay healthy.

It depends on two 2 things. What was the alternative for NYY and can they trade him or Holliday for more prospects down the line?

Yankees still trying hard to get rid of Castro (got him for 3 years), Headley (2 years left) and Gardner (2 years as well) to get under the luxury tax.

Skipping intentional walks would save about 30 secs a game. Probably less if you consider case like when the pitcher throwing the 4 balls is buying time for he guy warming up in the pen.

Shrinking the strike zone would mean more balls, more walks, more hits, more pitching changes, probably larger bullpens and smaller benches. Ultimately, longer games.

I don't see any regular platoons aside from maybe LF, but even that would be more whoever is hitting well than a true platoon.

LESS than a LOOGY!  Scrabble just got a 2 year/$11m deal from Seattle!  It's kinda crazy to see how things have shifted.

Pete Walker has confirmed the obvious: Joe Biagini will begin the season in the Toronto bullpen, unless there is something "unforeseen" (injury) in the rotation. The Jays are not, repeat not, considering the idea of sending him to Buffalo to "stretch him out" as some have suggested. And why would they? He's a valuable member of the 25-man roster. Why would they remove him from the roster and send him to Buffalo for some hypothetical future need, when he could be pitching valuable innings in the major leagues? And if they need him in the rotation due to an injury to one of the five starters, he can step in anyway, even if he's not fully stretched out.

Here is the key quote from Walker yesterday. (It's a slightly rambling and slightly confusing sentence, but the key parts of the quote are that Biagini is penciled into the bullpen and will remain there, "barring anything unforeseen.") The key sentence:

"Right now he's penciled in that bullpen and barring anything unforeseen in spring training, if a starter does happen to go down for a couple of weeks... he's certainly a guy that we feel could potentially step in."

That certainly makes the most sense IMO. 

If Joe Blanton isn't finding much of a market, he's the one name I'd still be interested in as a FA. 

yeah, unsurprising Biagini news is as expected. Especially as it is nowhere near as difficult to stretch out a reliever into a starting role if need be as many jays fans seem to think.

I suppose we all hear what we want to hear - I listened to the Walker interview and I heard a coach who was non-committal on Biagini - We will stretch him out in spring training - he's capable of starting,pitching multiple innings or the eighth inning - Of course, he goes into spring as a member of the BP, that's not news - He also didn't say the Jays would/wouldn't send Biagini to Buffalo - actually he didn't mention Buffalo at all.

You heard it correctly 85BJ. In fact, it is interesting that this interview from PTS is receiving comment but not the one with Kevin Barker, whom I realize is not as important a source as Walker. However, Barker did spend about 5 minutes discussing the back up C role and said it would be very much a competition in ST and would be a most intriguing competition in his view.

Walker didn't mention Buffalo because it is not seriously being considered as a destination for Biagini.

Salty breaks camp as the backup catcher. Only potential alternative I can see is if McGuire shows up and is suddenly able to hit.

Being so definite about something that is clearly indefinite can often make u look silly

I think AJ has a decent shot to take the job. But I think Salty has the edge.

I agree with u Ugly except that I give the slight edge to AJ for the same reasons Barker suggested...that he is the better receiver.....far better and pitchers may prefer to throw to him. Both candidates have something to prove and whomever proves it the most will get the job.

"Being so definite about something that is clearly indefinite can often make u look silly"

+1

Dave Cameron was asked in a recent chat if he felt any teams were being undervalued by the projections and he named the Jays at 83-79.  He sees us as mid-80s, which makes more sense to me. 

In reference to a conversation we had here a few days ago, he also interestingly agreed that Yanks prospects do tend to be slightly over-hyped.

And an interesting article at BP about how lousy minor league pay is costing teams the longshot prospects that leave the game early because of the low pay in the minors, especially for players with families. 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31124

A.J. Jimenez can't hit at AAA. He couldn't do better than a .668 OPS in 68 games at Buffalo last year. At age 26.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a career .721 OPS in the Majors. He has an above-average defensive career WAR. His pitch-framing ranks well ahead of Josh Thole's.

A.J. Jimenez might have a shot at someday becoming a better catcher than Josh Thole, except Jimenez can't stay on the field long enough to put up numbers worth comparing to Thole's. It's not even close. Based on five years of professional baseball, Jimenez simply cannot stay healthy. Is he going to get more durable as he ages?

The divide in actual 25-man value between Jimenez and Saltalamacchia isn't just remarkable - it's almost unspeakably vast. One of these two players is a Major League catcher, and the other one is not.

If Jimenez learns how to hit at AAA and can stay healthy for even one season, his receiving skills might be considered significant enough to warrant a cup of coffee when an actual ML catcher gets hurt. Good for him.

Until then, Blue Jays pitchers might enjoy not having to get used to pitching well enough for their 8-man batting lineup to compete against their oponents' 9-man lineups.

Pete Walker has confirmed the obvious: Joe Biagini will begin the season in the Toronto bullpen, unless there is something "unforeseen" (injury) in the rotation. The Jays are not, repeat not, considering the idea of sending him to Buffalo to "stretch him out" as some have suggested.

Here is the key quote from Walker yesterday. (It's a slightly rambling and slightly confusing sentence, but the key parts of the quote are that Biagini is penciled into the bullpen and will remain there, "barring anything unforeseen.") The key sentence:

"Right now he's penciled in that bullpen and barring anything unforeseen in spring training, if a starter does happen to go down for a couple of weeks... he's certainly a guy that we feel could potentially step in."

That's step in, as stepping in the starting rotation.

Walker didn't talk about Buffalo, but he talked about Biagini as a starter.

"He's a kid that has certainly started in the past. He's got a starter mentality. He was exceptional out of the pen for us, but certainly he's got a starter's build and a starter's repertoire. Right now he's penciled in that bullpen...

Stretching him out initially is the plan and we'll see where it goes from there. He's certainly capable of starting in the big leagues with his stuff."

So, basically, Biagini heads into spring training as a starter and they'll decide what to do in April.

Walker is echoing what I've been saying almost word for word. I didn't use "repertoire". I hope we can all agree on that.

Salty signed a minor league contract, so he has to earn the job in spring training.

Salty was in negative WAR territory last year.
Jinenez is a good receiver who can shut down the running game while Salty has a weak arm.
The backup will play about 50 games. Salty during his best year in 2013 was worth about 1 WAR over 50 games.
I'm guessing he could be anywhere between -0.3 to 0.5 WAR as the back up. Thole produced -0.7 WAR.
It really depends how much he can hits and if he works well with the pitching staff.

Jimenez played winter ball in Puerto Rico. He'll give his all and that will be that.

.668ops for a catcher in AAA is not so bad, actually.

it's easier if we use wrc+ - he put up a 90wrc+ in AAA last year, and that was with a low babip and not striking out very much.

For a defensive catcher, that's solid. If that lowers 20% down to a 70wrc+ in the bigs, he can be a nice valuable defensive catcher. Zips has him at 74 and steamer at 64, so they both see him in that range. If his glove is as advertised this could put him in the range of guys last year like wolters, maldonado, rivera, j.mccann, holaday who brought solid value as backups with that kind of offense.

Salty posted a 69wrc+ last year for comparison.

Actually PeterG it just means I'm expressing an opinion.

As someone who once extolled the virtues of Eddie Zosky I have no fear of looking silly.

Also (personal opinion alert... risk of stating something that makes me look silly...) I have McGuire ahead of Jiminez on the depth chart.

Nobody connected to Jays FO is likely to share that opinion as it seems likely now that McGuire will start at AA. Reese is the better long term prospect but he is behind on the depth chart in any way you want to measure imo.

thing is i'm not sure mcguire is really any better a prospect than jimenez was at that age.

McGuire was always headed to AA, but that doesn't mean he's not ahead of Jiminez on the depth chart ...  guess it depends on how you define 'depth chart' - to me, it's the first one called up in event of injury, and I could see McGuire's glove carrying the day even if the bat isn't fully developed. 

I've opined this before, but having the prospect in AA and the minor league vet in AAA is pretty typical.

McGuire is still very young and didn't do much to make it look like he's ready (offensively) to move up, so starting him in AA is the right approach, IMO. I don't think he will be considered depth in 2017, though. It's likely Salty, Jimenez, and Graterol in that order.

Jimenez has a lifetime .646 OPS at AAA despite being old for the level. He'll be 27 in May. He is a non prospect. He could go through waivers and nobody would claim him. Maguire is 21. While the chances of him not being a major league regular are still very high, there is a lot of growth after 21 so he could develop into a better hitter and he does have a good eye. I'd take Maguire's chances of career WAR being higher than Jimenez's at about 90%. There are a number of scenarios in spring training. If Salty hits, he makes the team. if Salty doesn't hit and Jimenez doesn't look amazing, Salty makes the team. The only scenario where Jimenez makes the team is if Salty looks awful and Jimenez looks great and the Jays decide they don't want to upgrade. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.

"....basically, Biagini heads into spring training as a starter and they'll decide what to do in April...."

Amazing that you would reach this conclusion when Walker explicitly said the exact opposite. He said Biagini is penciled into the bullpen. He said there's only one circumstance that could turn Biagini into a starter: if the team is hit with an injury in the rotation.

Every year, in the pre-season games, the Jays "stretch out" more than just the five starters.  They give two or three or four innings to additional pitchers, just in case there's an injury to one of the starting five.  And they need a "long man" in the bullpen, who is usually one of the "stretched out" pitchers (like Gavin Floyd last year). 

There is nothing in any of this that suggests Biagini is now viewed as a starter, or that he would be sent to Buffalo.

"....The only scenario where Jimenez makes the team is if Salty looks awful and Jimenez looks great and the Jays decide they don't want to upgrade. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No...."

Fully agree with this. 

I also agree that a lot of issues are "indefinite" and a lot of unexpected things can happen in the real world -- but we can still point out when some things are likely and some things are very unlikely.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a very good Catcher at one time. He had his issues, but did a lot of things very well. Some of the things he did well then, he no longer does now. For some reason he's stopped doing these things - disinterest, lazyness or injury, something changed. I think it's possible he could be better easily. We'll have to see.

"Jimenez has a lifetime .646 OPS at AAA despite being old for the level. He'll be 27 in May. He is a non prospect. He could go through waivers and nobody would claim him. "

but there's plenty of useful bench players in baseball who didn't get there until they were non prospects in their mid to late 20s.

Catchers often develop later than other position players because of all the non hitting work they have to do. Also the offensive bar for back up catchers is very low...see Thole, Josh.

This is not to say that Jimenez is better than Salty. But it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he had a good season. The big problem with keeping Jimenez and dropping Salty is Jimenez's injury history. If you drop Salty, you could easily then be forced to call up McGuire when Jimenez gets injured.

Article in Jays Journal this morning as to why it makes sense to send Biagini to Buffalo to start :

http://jaysjournal.com/2017/02/09/mike-bolsinger-joe-biagini-toronto-blue-jays-bullpen/

I'm not sure anything drives me more nuts than this argument.

As Walker clearly said, there is no problem keeping Biagaini in the bullpen AND using him as emergency starting depth.

There is zero need to have him pitching in AAA. I have no idea where this idea came from that it is difficult to stretch out a reliever midseason. Teams literally do this all the time.

From a team-management perspective, I can see the case for keeping Biagini in the bigs simply out of fairness. He clearly earned a job. He isn't a big bonus baby, so a demotion to AAA hurts him badly financially, and I'm sure his teammates are aware of that.

Demoting Biagini is not a team/player-friendly move, unless he gets clearly outpitched in spring training. We aren't talking about a popular vet who can't hack it anymore, we are talking about a kid who was a key arm in our pen last year.

Bolsinger is replacement level. Is the major reason for Biagini to Buffalo is to protect Bolsinger, sign more AAA starters. There are still big leaguers looking for deals out there - Dave Cameron just called Jorge de la Rosa the best FA bargain remaining. Sign him (or whoever the FO prefers) as a reliever who can start and our depth problem is solved.

The FO has to think not only about 2017 but 2018 and beyond. 2 starters will become FA's after this season. Biagini is more valuable as a starter than a reliever. That said, I am not predicting that he begins the season in Buffalo but to deny that it is a possibility is very foolish.

PeterG:

Nobody in the Jays front office agrees with me that McGuire is ahead of Jiminez? Nobody?

I'll take that bet. Several posters have provided good rationale for why McGuire might be preferable. I based my decision on age, health, trajectory, and the fact that the current FO played no part in Jiminez joining the organization.

Beyond the fact that it is a perfectly justifiable position, front offices are purposely assembled to have a diversity of opinions. "If you are dumb, surround yourself with smart people. If you are smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you". I'm fairly confident that there is a range of opinions on Jiminez and McGuire within the Jays front office including those who agree with me. At the very least I would think that the medical staff would share my opinion.

"Biagini is more valuable as a starter than a reliever."

We don't know that. He may not be able to ever be an above replacement level starter. He showed he can be a very valuable reliever, though. At least for one season.

Many in the FO, maybe all, will agree that McGuire is the better prospect but that does NOT place him higher on the depth chart. The depth chart is the order in which they would be given a major league opportunity due to injury or non performance. The players at AAA are nearly always higher on the depth chart.

I don't believe the FO would even consider using McGuire in the majors this year as it would likely hinder his development. Someone said that McGuire could catch in the majors now defensively. Maybe so. But I have news. It has been said that Jimenez could have caught in the majors the last 3 years if not for injury and the presence of Mr. Dickey.

Graterol, with a solid season in AAA last year is also ahead of McGuire on the depth chart.

It seems that some are confusing potential with place on depth chart. They are completely different judgments.

Yeah, I love McGuire (certainly way more than Jimenez) but I don't think that's any reason to rush McGuire to the bigs just because he has potential to be a much bigger asset - he should get a chance to develop at whatever pace the organization thinks is working best for getting the most value out of him long-term.

I also agree with Glevin that Saltalamacchia would have to look just terrible and Jimenez would have to knock the cover off the ball for there to be a scenario where Salty doesn't get the backup job. Salty isn't perfect - his defensive value is on the decline, and he put up lousy batting numbers last season (due mostly to an abysmal BABIP) but if he was a consistently league-average hitter and a plus defender, he'd be a starting catcher for someone.

The Jays could do a lot worse for a backup, and I don't mean that just based on their other current internal options.

According to MLBTR, the Jays have signed Jake Elmore to a minor-league deal.

I guess he'll provide some emergency depth at Buffalo and NH, because he's not much good with the bat. Or with the glove. He's bad defensively at pretty much every position he's played, but man, he's played everywhere. Literally. In his professional career he has made appearances at EVERY SINGLE position - sort of the ultimate minor-league utility guy.

Interesting pickup, anyway.

Ugh, my post history will show that I am a polite, civil member of the box who neither picks nor fuels fights. But I am getting sick and tired of words getting put in my mouth in this thread.

To recap

My first statement of opinion was that the only threat to Salty starting with the Jays is a Reese McGuire that has learned how to hit. In this statement I made no reference to the depth chart, just that it would take the highly unlikely scenario of Reese McGuire becoming Buster Posey overnight to stop Salty from getting the job.

My second statement of opinion was that Reese McGuire was ahead of AJ Jiminez on the depth chart. Note that there was no mention of either Salty or Graterol in that statement.

I'm fully aware of what the term depth chart means and I was fully cognizant of the implications of my statement. Again, in that statement I didn't compare McGuire to Salty or Graterol, just Jiminez.

I am of the opinion that Jiminez is a complete non-prospect who would have been let go if the Jays didn't have to fill the upper minors with a warm body. I also think that his perennial health issues are a deterrent to any investment in him at the major league level.

That's why I have such confidence in Salty breaking camp with the Jays and its why I feel that McGuire is ahead of him. I doubt that either Jiminez or McGuire will see significant time with the Jays this year (I agree that Graterol would be next), but I do think that McGuire is the better bet.

I would also point out that neither catcher has received an assignment as yet. So it is pure conjecture to reference minor league level as a justification for placement on a depth chart. However, if we going to use semi-facts to infer placement on the depth chart then I would point out that the Jays didn't bring in someone to compete with McGuire for a job at his level.

That's just the opinion of one man who doesn't believe in regurgitating Fangraphs in lieu of an original opinion or speaking on behalf of the entire front office of a professional baseball organization. I tend to fall in the middle where I am simply not afraid to look silly with an opinion.

If you needed a reminder about how Blue Jay attendance has fared compared to the rest of baseball over the last 2 years, this is a nice summary.   Blue Jay payroll for 2017 is $156 million according to Sportrac, which would have been a good figure in 2013 or 2014. 

The Bee Gees did not have a hit called "How deep is your covenant?" and Alanis Morrisette's hit was not "their hands in our pockets".

J Smith will be added to the 40 man roster which currently stands at 41. So 2 deletions are needed.
I would be willing to risk 2 out of options players.

Wait... the Bee Gees were Canadian?

And... Alanis Morrisette wasn't a horse-faced one-hit wonder?

This is some solid baseball analysis, right there.

There is, by the way, an error in Sportrac's figures.  They have Stroman as pre-arb for 2017.  The club and he have exchanged figures, and he's going to get a little more than 3M, one way or the other.

Chad Girodo is the first victim. He comes off for Howell.

I was a little surprised to hear it was Girodo, but no big deal.

Spotrac has Upton at $5,000,000 for this year. That was the total the Jays agreed to pick up for 2016 and 2017 combined. I have heard they picked up $4,000,000 last year and $1,000,000 this year, but I'm not certain if that is correct. Factoring in the Jays' pre-arb guys and Stroman, I have the Jays at about $161-162 million, with Upton at $1,000,000. If it's more than that for Upton this year, bump the range by the additional amount. There are also potential incentive bonuses for Bautista and Smith.

Girodo DFA'ed.  That guy fell out of favour fast. 

rasta80, everything with your posts be irie!

I think some people are overestimating Salty.

Let's just recap. I'll use bWAR as a metric.

2013 Salty is the starting catch for the Red Sox. He gets  benched for the last 3 games of the World Series because of a series of defensive errors.

2014, the Red Sox don't offer him a QO. The Marlins sign him for 3/21M. He produces 0 WAR in 114 games.

2015, he loses the starting job to Realmuto and after 9 games in which he produces a Thole like OPS+ of 8, the Marlins releases him. He's picked up by the Diamondbacks who send him to AAA but after only a week he's called back to replace Gosewisch who has suffered a season  ending knee injury. The Marlin are still paying most of his salary. He produced 0.8 WAR in 70 games.

2016, he's a free agent again and Detroit sign him--mostly because the Marlins are still paying most of his salary. He's the backup for James McCann. He delivers -0.2 WAR.

James McCann has a career OPS+ of 79, Tuffy Gosewisch 41, Jeff Mathis 53, Chritian Vasquez 54.
These guys have all beaten Salty to a job. Jimenez is probably as good as most of those guys.

Another way of looking at Saltalamacchia: for the last 6 seasons, his OPS has been: .737, .742, .804, .681, .745, and .630. Last year is a bit of an outlier. He really struggled badly at home, but his road numbers were closer to his previous levels. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bounce back somewhat, and put up an OPS in the .700-.725 range, particularly if he mainly plays vs righties, against whom he has a career OPS of .762. I'd be very surprised if he isn't the backup catcher on opening day.

Lol. Still paying the price for choosing a username in my 20s.

Also surprised at Girodo. Wonder if there is an attitude problem as numbers and eyes would not support this move. I wonder if he will be claimed. Could he be traded? Still teams looking for lefties.

Girodo looks like a pure LOOGY. Nice to have if you have the room in the pen, and other guys who can eat up innings, but probably not a guy likely to add a lot of value to the Jays.

Yeah, a 2nd look at the 2016 numbers for Girodo suggests that he struggled although he had shown promise prior to that. Wonder who's next....Leone?

The hitting probably doesn't matter. Spring training will be a test of how well he receives.
Last year he played 11 games at first base and he was absolutely terrible there. 2 errors, -2 defensive runs saved.
I image he'd be a lot like Greg Zaun. Left bat with some power, but everybody would be stealing second all game long.

With Dickey gone and 2 soft tossers added in late relief, we could see a lot more stolen bases.

Last year there was 84 bases stolen up from 64 the in 2015. A far cry for the last year Greg Zaun was behind the dish and 134 bases were stolen against the Jays.

Baserunners have gone 48/25 against Howell over his long career (and 2/4 last year).  Baserunners are 31/17 against Smith (1/4 last year).  It doesn't seem to be a big issue for either of them.

And AJ Jimenez is the second victim.

He's eligible to elect free agency, I believe.

The Jays lose a left-hander who doesn't have much of a fastball and doesn't strike out very many, He wasn't any where close on the depth charts or shouldn't be. Easy decision.

Most of the Catchers in the Jays' system are younger, either better defensively or better offensively or both. Nine professional seasons and not even a sniff of the Majors. Easy decision.

Bit surprised about Girodo - with options remaining - instead of Schultz, who is out, but I guess our pen has plenty of soft tossers already, and nobody was talking about Girodo as an option - Walker mentioned Loup, Mayza, Oberholzer and Dermody as lefty candidates- but no Girodo.

I assume the two option years remaining for Graterol were the deciding factor in him over Jiminez, but I think the DFA is a pretty clear indication of how the org viewed AJ in the first place.

For what it's worth, the other minor league catcher we added this year, Mike Ohlman, netted a C+ ranking from Sickels in 2016, and Cards fan site Viva el Birdos (not making that up) had him as their 20th best prospect but described him as looking 'more and more like a 1b' back in August. 

"....I give the slight edge to AJ...."

Any chance you might want to reconsider that prediction, now that AJ has been designated for assignment?

Yeah i would say that the prosecution rests on Jiminez.

To be fair, they didn't have to add AJ to the 40 roster for the rule V draft and could have protected someone else.
It simply looks like Graterol passed him.

Haha, yep. That'll certainly put an end to the debate.

They still need two spots for Floyd and Salty if they make the roster, but that can wait until April.

Graterol has options and Jimenez doesn't. I think that's pretty much what it came down to. Salty would have needed to flop completely to not get the back-up CA role even if Jimenez were still around.

Any chance you might want to reconsider that prediction, now that AJ has been designated for assignment?


Obviously I would reconsider and admit that I was wrong. However, bringing it my attention in that way illustrates a small mindedness and perhaps inferiority complex on your part. Are you right so seldom that you must advertise it publicly. Seems that way to me.

I don't hold it over others when I am proven right such as in the Saunders debate and other similar instances.

Shout out to White Rasta for a good call.


[

I'd still say Jimenez has a shot at the job.

He may have Ugly, but it does seem less of a chance than previously. He may declare free agency if he does not like the way the Jays have handled this. On the other hand, this is not the best time to be job searching in MLB.

What do we think of Harold Ramirez? Does he have a chance to play in TO sometime in 2017. I wonder whom the org likes better.....Ramirez or Pompey? My guess is that they will compete in Buffalo for an opportunity to be first call up. It would be great if they both look good in ST and then the regular season. The team would have several more options going forward if both of these players turn out well with Alford likely a year behind them.

I'm a big fan of high contact guys so I'm probably higher on Ramirez than most.

His ability to put bat to ball (especially on a team like this) will probably get him in the discussion for a call up in the event of injury but it will take a secondary skill (probably defense, possibly baserunning) to would clinch it.

What do we think of Harold Ramirez? Does he have a chance to play in TO sometime in 2017.

He looks like the next Robert Perez: batting average appears to be his only offensive skill. Like Perez, he doesn't strike out much. He's young enough to improve, but I don't expect much from him.

On unrelated topics:

• I like Howell and Smith in the bullpen, but I want to wait and see how they handle pitching in the Rogers Centre in April, and how they handle moving to the AL East (the baseball equivalent of Serie A). Pitching in Toronto has undone formerly good pitchers in the past (see "Storen, Drew").
• They'll probably stretch Biagini out in the spring in case one or more of the starting rotation goes down with an injury. (I'm not a huge fan of the other sixth-man option, which is Bolsinger.) If everybody stays healthy, Biagini will go back to the pen.

Howell pitched in the AL East for 6 years.

Howell pitched in the AL East for 6 years.

True, but he hasn't pitched there since 2012, and he's probably grown used to pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine. He's been better at home than on the road in three of the last four years. Hopefully, his AL East pitching knowledge will all come back to him (the good bits, that is).

I think that dave's assessment and comparison for ramirez are quite appropriate.

I don't know much about Ramirez beyond what I have read.  He is considerably ahead of Robert Perez at this stage.  Ramirez held his own in double A at age 21.  At the same age, Perez had a somewhat lesser year in St. Catherines.  Perez reached double A at age 23 and hit .260/.277/.378. 

Ramirez has more room to grow than Perez, and in particular to add more power (as Kirby Puckett did).  Or he could go in another direction.  Tony Gwynn spent most of his age 22 season in the PCL and hit .328/.358/.443.  That looks like something Ramirez might do this year.  Neither of these paths is likely, but I wouldn't limit his possibilities to what Perez achieved. 

Ramirez hit .309, .337, and .311 at ages 19, 20, and 21 respectively in three different levels (A, A+, AA). He can clearly make contact and doesn't strike out much. The issues with him are his lack of power, whether he can be an average or better defensive player in the outfield, and his base running ability. There isn't much (if any) data on the latter two skills.

The best comp I have seen so far for him is Jose Tabata. If his defense in the OF and base running can be average to above average, then his pure hitting ability might be able to make him a league average type. If he develops power, even a modest amount of power, without sacrificing his hitting ability, then his upside increases.

He's still young enough to improve, but as of now I think Tabata is a fair comp.

The Ramirez skill set may be more valuable to the Jays than to other teams who may already have high average hitters. The Jays tend to have too many all or nothing guys imo. If Ramirez can hit over .280 in the bigs, I believe he can start in TO. It should be noted that BA prospect report says that he can play a decent CF and has above average speed, another aspect that the Jays need.

I am still not totally sold on him, but think that he is intriguing and may well give us more than Pompey though I don't wish to debate that as I don't yet have a strong feeling one way or the other.

One difficulty I am having with evaluating Ramirez is that I can't think of many hitters like him. Not many hitters hit for a high average without walks.

Kevin Pillar is actually a reasonable comparison for him - Pillar was a .300+ hitter all the way through the minors - and Pillar isn't a very good hitter. Pillar has a regular job only because he is Superman.

Can anybody think of any other player or prospect with this skill set?

As others have pointed out, Ramirez is still very young, so he might grow into being a better hitter. Or he might not. Alex Gonzalez The First (the future Cub goat) had an outstanding season in AA ball at 20, and then kinda stopped there. I don't think anybody really knows what will happen next.

I'd much rather have him, Liriano, and Reese McGuire than Drew Hutchison, though. It's more enjoyable to watch a larger-market team than a small-market one. :-)

Ramirez had an OBP of .360 last year...and has been up and down before that with 2 years better than that and 3 not. It may be too soon to suggest that he does not walk. I look forward to seeing and hearing about him in ST so as to better form an opinion as to his possible value.

thinking a Ben Revere type. or maybe a Zeke type. except last year Ramirez stopped stealing bases for whatever reason.

so much depends on what kind of defense he can play.

The best comp I have seen so far for him is Jose Tabata.

Speak of the devil, the Jays have signed Tabata to a minor league deal.

Funny enough, after I get done comparing Ramirez to Tabata a few posts ago, Heyman Tweets that the Jays have signed Tabata to a minor league deal.

I like the Tabata signing. There will be competition for playing time in Buffalo unless an OF is traded, a possibility imo.

I would like to see another starting pitcher signed to minor league deal. Alfredo Simon anyone?

I like Hochevar better but don't think he would accept minor deal whereas Simon might.

It's amazing how a player with one very advanced specific skill can be almost universally dismissed by even the most homerific Jays fans.

How about we wait until Ramirez can't hit at a level three years below his age group before we start telling everyone that his ceiling is Ben Revere, at best?

Every organization has a ton of failed prospects - can't we at least wait until they actually fail?

Parker - what a novel idea!

Perhaps, we doth protest too much...

We all know that many prospects fail.
I never thought much of Woody Williams. I was wrong. He had a decent ML career.

Ramirez is young and definitely has a strong hit tool, but one tool guys are hard to evaluate.  I see him as a possible 4th OF and thought Melky Cabrerra was a reasonable comp, but I have very little idea of his D, or what happened to his speed this year.  From what I recall of scouting reports, he can play CF but not well, which makes me think he could be a solid LF. 

Happy with the Tabata move - I've been saying we need more AAA depth for a while.  One more starter would be good.

J.P. Howell and Joe Smith both spent some time pitching last year in front of porous West Coat Defenses. So I'm not really worried about any good Groundball Pitcher moving to the A.L. East including Toronto.

At Harold Ramirez's age, speed only disappears with injuries. So Ramirez played hurt, did anyone know? Was that the same time he rated poorly at CF Defense?

I agree that injury is a likely explanation for the temporary (hopefully) loss of speed.

dude is 5 ft 10, and 220 pounds, at 22 years old.  He's going to continue to slow down as he fills out

like Kirby Puckett?

Yes, Ramirez should slow down with age and weight but not this soon I hope.

This is a big year for both of the former pirate prospects. If it goes right they could be on the cusp of the bigs making pittsburgh look really dumb. If it goes wrong they could be on the path out of baseball making pittsburgh look, well still a little dumb. Liriano is good.

For what its worth i think that one of them come good.

Re- Tabata. Could be a good pickup, just keep him away from the cadillac lounge, the queen and beaver, and LA Fitness. If he somehow meets a couger, keep said couger away from the TGH Maternity ward.

Rest in peace, Mike Ilitch. You were one of the greats.

as i'm the only one who mentioned Ben Revere, i'll point out that nobody said revere was ramirez' ceiling, let alone "at best".

BA Top-100

#20 Guerrero
#59 Alford
#73 Gurriel
#75 Reid-Foley
#95 Tellez

think urena shoulda made it and rowdy about 50 spots higher but then again i'm skeptical on gurriel being a top 100 guy so who knows.

Pittsburgh sold high on McGuire and Ramirez - one tool prospects who seem overrated on prospect rankings ... they scored Hutch, who has all kinds of positive peripherals over the last few years ... the idea was that Liriano was a salary dump.   I recall some posters being into the prospects, but I don't recall anyone saying that Liriano would bounce back in TO.  Overall, this deal may still work out for both teams, but the prospects we got are nothing special. 

"Pittsburgh sold high on McGuire and Ramirez - one tool prospects who seem overrated on prospect rankings"

Sold high? Their stock is exactly where it was when the Jays got them which is two C+ prospects. Nobody thought the Jays were trading for Alex Bregman which is why they didn't give up anything.

actually both had been ranked as Top-100 B prospects as pirates.

but that could be as much about certain systems being over or underrated as anything else.

McGuire was picked 14th overall. There's no questions about his defense.
He has no power but he walks as much as he strikes out.  Could still have a long career as a starting catcher.

Ramirez got into the books with an OPS of 857 in A+. He's 22 and the last time he hit less than .300 he was 18.
Again the lack of power works against him, but if he can keep his numbers he'd be a fine leadoff hitter even if he's limited to left field.

I am superstitious in a few things. As we start the 40th season of the Jays lets look at their talent producing abilities or lack of.

If 10 years is considered an era then in our 40 year sample size we are good at producing the following. Some of which came to us before they developed:-
#1 SPs Steib, Key, D Wells, Hentgen, Guzman, Carpenter, Halladay. Then a drought. Today's promising #1s Sanchez, Thor and Stroman.

1B J Mayberry, then a glut of McGriff, C Fielder, Olerud. Delgado and then a drought which is still ongoing. Maybe EE if he is a 1B, 3B or DH. Maybe Tellez can end the drought.

OF:- Mosby, Bell, Barfield, S Green, S Stewart and V Wells. Now a drought which I am absolutely shocked at because of my strong beliefs.

I don't believe that we can develop much else. So we need to get them from other organizations when the need arises.

Closer:- Remember Joey MacLaughlin? The duo of Henke/Ward. Janssen and now Osuna. We seem Ok for now.

SS:- T Fernandez, M Young, and A Griffin.
2B:- J Kent, D Garcia.
3B:- K Gruber, E Sprague.
So not much home grown.

Somehow I find catcher the worst because you cannot improvise like Iorg/Mulliniks for the IF. You need one guy to do it well.
We only produced Boarders and Myers who made the team together.
However before 1980 we had a glut from other organizations. Buck Martinez was a minor pickup. The Expansion draft produced R Cerone, A Ashby, E Whitt and P Roof?

I like going to other organizations for our deficiencies. R McGuire.
Oakland seems to produce serviceable infielders. We should exchange our 4th OF surplus for their utility IFs.
We traded a catcher for JB who was an underachieving OF.

I would like to hear from other Bauxites about this analysis/belief of mine. Am I cherry picking?

McGuire was ranked 5th among catching prospects on MLB network about a week back. Even if the catching group is a weak one, that is still a very good ranking. All a player needs to do to be a positive, is to be better than the other teams player at the same position.

Here is a link to an article just published about the Jays farm system. It is mostly about coaching and changes that have been made in development but there are 2 paragraphs on McGuire and one on Gurriel:

http://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/2017/02/gil-kim-and-state-of-blue-jays-farm.html

and I would like to add that 5 prospects in the BA top 100 is well better than average. Must have been a late adjustment as I remember an interview with John Manuel in December when he had 6 and said 8 was within the realm of possibility. The additions would have been Urena, Bichette and Zeuch.

"....Are you right so seldom that you must advertise it publicly. Seems that way to me...."

Everyone here has been right and wrong many times.  I can cite plenty of examples of both.  Not sure if I'd want to bore the group with the examples, but all of us, including me, have made predictions that have been right, and predictions that have been wrong.  That's part of the fun of this site. 

In this specific case, you had been hammering your Jimenez prediction quite incessantly, and I don't think there's anything wrong with another person on the site sometimes disputing your prediction, or noting the evidence accumulating against it.

Fair enough...but I was not the only one and u singled me out. It appeared offensive to me as it was not the first time and you could have made a more general response rather than a specific quoting.

I don't wish any disputes beyond baseball opinions so will move forward with discussion of other subjects as they arise.

Any word on whether one of the catchers reporting on Valentine's Day will be Max Pentecost? He had a solid offensive season last year after essentially two lost years and should start in High A with a goal to hitting Double A by mid-season. His overall value, however, is tied to his ability to remain a catcher, even part-time, after his shoulder woes. Fingers crossed for him to have a breakout year.

Pentecost is not invited to the major league camp so I assume he will report later to the minor league camp.

Gil Kim makes a reference to him in the article I linked to a few posts back. He remarks that Max could be a top 100 prospect next year so that would seem to indicate that they think he is ready to catch.

Pentecost will be old for the level everywhere he plays next, so it will be hard to evaluate his progression.
He missed all of 2015 and was a DH in 2016, so he's probably got a lot of work to do behind the plate even if he's healthy.

He does have a long way to go though I don't think the age part is that important. It depends upon his health, ability and desire and we still don't know much about that. I do think that Kim was perhaps overly optimistic in his comment.

He does have a long way to go though I don't think the age part is that important.

I disagree. Age is a very strong predictor of growth. There are certainly counter-examples of "old" MLB rookies who had long careers, but expectations are rightfully tempered for someone who spent age 23 in A-ball. And that's before even factoring his health issues into the equation.

"actually both had been ranked as Top-100 B prospects as pirateS"

Yes, but they had slipped since that ranking. Their prospect stock has not gone down since coming to Toronto. Selling high would have meant the Pirates trading them when they were seen as better prospects.

BA rated Tellez's speed at 20 and his fielding at 40. In today's game, he's really going to have to hit to be an impact player in the majors.

"Yes, but they had slipped since that ranking."

had they?

Last year's preseason lists:

McGuire: BP #76, MLB #98
Ramirez: BP #80, BA #95

"had they?

Last year's preseason lists:

McGuire: BP #76, MLB #98
Ramirez: BP #80, BA #95"

What are you even arguing? You are saying they were once ranked as better prospects and they have slipped as prospects and in the next post that their prospect ranking hasn't slipped. Anyway, I don't care. All I am doing is refuting the ridiculous notion that the Jays bought high on prospects. They didn't.

It is ridiculous. Jays got the prospects basically for nothing except for taking on a reasonable contract as it turns out. It is one of the more bizarre trades in recent memory imo.

Aside from the prospects who both have major league, but not star, potential: Liriano > Hutchison, again imo

All I am doing is refuting the ridiculous notion that the Jays bought high on prospects. They didn't.

Glevin, again with calling what I write 'ridiculous'?  Disagree away, but please cut the invective. 

My goal is to say interesting things that generate conversation, and part of that is going against the received wisdom at times.  I feel it is entirely justifiable to use the phrase 'sold high'.  Not only are both players one dimensional - one tool prospects - but Ramirez finished 2016 on the DL, posted a worse year than his 2015 and is already burning option years on the 40 man roster.  Pardon me for not being stoked about a low power LF prospect.

McGuire was worse with us than Pittsburgh, and will need to be added to the 40 man after this year.  There is nothing in his background that suggests even decent offensive production, so he needs to be elite defensively to be even considered a candidate to start - he strikes me as more of a Jeff Mathis backup type.

These are high floor, low ceiling prospects.  "Sold high" can refer to their disappointing stints in TO (SSS of course), their lack of upside or their having been potentially overrated as prospects.  We saw how quickly the FA market shifted on one dimensional players this year.  It is 'ridiculous' to assume that prospect evaluation can't shift in the same way.  

In the spirit of going against the received wisdom, I still think Hutch has upside for Pittsburgh, and again ask the question - did anyone think that Liriano would be good for us?  He was a salary dump and I believe that was how he was perceived round here when he was acquired.  This is still a strong trade for our FO, but perhaps not the HR that some see it as.  And I'm certainly not convinced that those 21 lousy starts Liriano had in Pittsburgh are irrelevant. 

'Sold high' makes it seem like their reputations took a big dip since the trade. Afaik that didn't happen. Heck, the minor league season only ended a few weeks after that.

with all due respect, I don't agree with any of this Jerjapan. I don't see either McGuire or Ramirez as one dimensional though they do have some limitations. I do believe that the Jays had higher hopes for Liriano that you suggest as he had previous success working with Martin. Yes, he was having a bad season by any measure, but he has some of the best stuff in MLB and when with Twins was probably one of the better starters in the league.

"Glevin, again with calling what I write 'ridiculous'? Disagree away, but please cut the invective."

Jer, you called one of my posts "stupid" because you disagreed with it.

Maybe try to fix yourself before you try to fix the world =)

How long ago was that Pubster?  a year ago perhaps?  If you continue to cling to this one-off comment of mine, what's wrong with me calling out Glevin for the same thing - that has happened several times?  FWIW, you and I talked through this comment plenty at the time, I still think your logic is blatantly fallacious and this 'victim' role you are assuming is debatable at best.  Let it go, bro. 

BlueJayWay, I don't think a player's rep needs to take a hit for that player to be 'sold high'.  I just see both guys as overrated prospects - I can't be the only one round here who thinks this? 

PeterG, as per the reasons in my previous post, I continue to think that one dimensional prospects are being re-evaluated.  Look at Tellez - he is a one tool guy, and there are plenty of thoughtful posters thinking he is underrated as a result.  I'm curious about why you think McGuire and Ramirez are not one-dimensional? 

IMO, Ramirez has one tool - hitting.  McGuire has two - fielding and throwing. 

Appears the Jays are scouting Cuban RHP Hector Mendoza as MLB.com National reporter Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) has posted some photos of his workout and Drew Hendriks (@77hendriks) tweeted one Jesse's photo's of the work out which shows some Jays reps in attendance.

Photo link https://twitter.com/77hendriks/status/83055039187617792

BA has an insider scouting link on Mendoza, I won't post much of it as it's for subscribers, but I'll paste this one line:
"With the potential for three average to plus pitches, Mendoza has the repertoire to develop into a midrotation starter."
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-20-prospects-cuba-11-20/#8mJdAETftwkbcrGy.99

Also according to this: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/hector-mendoza-free-agent-cuba-mlb.html after March 5th he will no longer fall under international bonus pools thus the Jays can bid on him.

He was closing in Cuba but as noted above could start, perhaps the starting depth the Jays are talking about adding.

Chuck I would argue that age is a good indicator in the absence of significant injury. If pentacost has a full year of catching and is still hitting then i will be pretty excited.

Tellez, once again being criminally underrated in my opinion. To me he is a top 50 guy, possibly top 25.

Case in point: I dont see a huge difference between tellez today and AJ Reed last year (BA #11). Yes Reed showed more HR power but the iso's were almost identical at AA and tellez has fewer holes in his swing. Defense, running, walk rates- all similar. Rowdy also did this over a full season rather (Reed was a half season where he slowed down at the end). Yet for some reason Reed ranked #11 in a much better year for prospects.

I am either going to really enjoy being right about Rowdy or really feel the pain of missing profoundly. I have him as a very, very good hitter at the major league level.

For what its worth I also like Reed, he just seemed a logical comparison.

McGuire....only tool lacking is power, He is a mutli tool prospect and not overrated. Also has intangibles according to all reports. Baseball IQ is very important.

Ramirez...more limited than McGuire but more than 1 tool....can hit for average, his OPB has been good in all but one year, has speed ( you need to look at career, not just one year

Tellez.....can hit for power and average. That is 2 tools.Also said to have intangibles. Good make up is perhaps the most underrated tool if it is a tool at all....doesn't matter, it's a positive. His defence keeps improving and is probably better than that of EE's which was hugely ocverrated imo....providing a good target like Smoak is a useful skill and I am not a Smoak fan but he does that very well.

I should add that McGuire does not have speed in a linear sense but is considered athletic for a catcher and not slow...for a catcher.

Well, the tools are hitting, power, speed, fielding and arm - I can't see any scenario where McGuire has a hit or a speed tool.  He may be speedy for a catcher, but that's not the same as having a speed tool.   I do buy into the value of intangibles, but that's a different conversation. 

For Ramirez, the second tool is arguably speed but that remains debatable - he's had multiple leg injuries and as a young guy continues to fill out - he's 5 ft. 10, 220 pounds right now - that's not an age / build combo that speaks to speed.  He did swipe some bases in the past, but I don't think that's enough evidence for a tool.   Tellez has the most tools of the trio IMO, and I'm still bullish on him. 

I'm with Rasta on Pentacost - injuries are the reason he's still in A ball, not talent. 

Mendoza would be an ideal add, and represents the exact sort of value I hope our FO is in on.  I doubt we get him, but if we do, a decent offseason becomes a very good one IMO. 

I totally agree with Rasta re: Tellez. And I too hope he turns out. It would be nice to develop a left-handed power hitting 1B and control him for six years at a very low cost...although my wishful thinking may be clouding my judgement.

Eldarion,

I think if we hadnt been stung by Snider we all would feel better.

"Let it go, bro."

Jer, you're missing the point.

The point is that if you make comments like that to other posters, then you should be ok receiving the same kind of comments.

Why are you even talking?  Contact me privately if you have some issue that you'd like to resolve publicly.

Your 'points' are painfully obvious, your logic self-serving, and your trolling is tiresome. 

""'Sold high' makes it seem like their reputations took a big dip since the trade. Afaik that didn't happen. "

I really don't want ro belabour this point but their reputation - at least amongst interweb scouting circles - is clearly lower now than it was at the time of the trade. at the time of the trade they were still considered clear top 10 prospects in what was considered a very good farm system.

again, though, this could easily simply be due to being traded from a respected system to a disrespected one.

personally I think they're solid prospects that both are very likely to contribute at the mlb level, and soon.

and of course the other component of "sold high" would be a high price....and since we look like we won the trade the price doesn't look high.

I read that Stroman had his Arb hearing on Fri. That would be Fri 10th.
Sorry for the above 2 sentences that seem to state the obvious. I find it hard to believe that Arb actually happened because of $300,000. But after reading the whole article. I now understand that each years arb figure is affected by last years salary.

So this is about future savings.

I find it hard to believe that Arb actually happened because of $300,000.

Is it my imagination, or has there been a lot of that this year (arb cases over small differences, as if the owners are somehow collectively sending a message)?

The arbitration rules changed a few years ago. Once the figures are sent in, the two sides cannot agree to split the difference unless they arrive at a multi-year deal.  This new rule leads to more arbitrations over small differences (the "bottom line" for each side in negotiation might be different than the arbitration figures). 

Thanks, Mike. Was not aware of the "multi-year" business.

I hope the hearing is more pleasant than it was in the past.
I remember a player, not a Jay, commenting about how he sat for 5 hrs or something listening to the team's representative telling him how lousy he was.

The arbitration rules changed a few years ago.

I didn't know about this either - that certainly would make meeting in the middle more challenging for both parties. Thanks for the info, Mike.

You're welcome, Chuck. 

I was hoping that we might see a long-term deal for Stroman and/or Donaldson.  It's not likely to happen now, as pitchers and catchers report in two days.  Can we roll into baseball season now, please?

Ugly,

If you are arguing that McGuire and Ramirez are less valuable now than at this time last year then i agree with you 100% and see little room for debate.

However a case can be made that by the trade deadline last year their value had already dropped (by virtue of not taking a big step forward). If you take that perspectivs then you could argue that the pirates didnt sell high and that their value hasnt dropped since the trade.

Its not necessarily my perspective (i think McGuire hurt his value by virtue of his performance with the jays) but it is a defensible argument.

It does, Parker.  I don't see who benefits from the rule either, except the arbitrators. 

Thanks Mike. I understand now, because it makes more sense to me, why JD got the 2 year deal.

This Griffin article is a good read, if you haven't already seen it.

I had myself a quite a laugh at the John Bateman Weight-Loss Plan anecdote.

"Its not necessarily my perspective (i think McGuire hurt his value by virtue of his performance with the jays) but it is a defensible argument."

Seriously? Maguire had 61 PAs in the Jays system. That's 0.04% of his minor league ABs. 16% of his ABs on the season. There is no way in hell 61 PAs in AA in a new system changed his prospect standing in any way.

Sickles rankings of Maguire
2014-B
2015-C
2016-C+
2017-C+

The time when the Pirates could have sold high was 2014. Some posters on here are absolutely absurd, bending every fact to try to fit some weird agenda. Maguire is the exact same prospect he was a year ago.

Okay, I kinda totally screwed up that link.

Here's the ACTUAL link.

My bad.

rasta, the term "sell high" might be just confusing the debate.

i don't think there's any question that their reps in publicly available circles are not only lower than they were at this time last year, but also when they were traded.

of course their trade value itself (or lack thereof) is a part of why their rep has dropped, not just their performance.

for me personally, i thought many jays fans were overrating them when we got them, but i thought they were solid prospects then and still do now.

i do think that many fans who were very excited by
the trade at the deadline - some of whom thought our own prospect system was gutted - are being a bit disengenuos by saying that these two not even being in consideration for top 10 in our system isn't a big step down from what they thought we were getting, though. i remember quite clearly these two being touted as borderline top 5 prospects in the system when we got them, both by outside commentators and by fans.

Just checked that - MLB.com ranked mcguire and ramirez #4 and #5 in our system as soon as we traded for them.

I find the Arb related topic very interesting.
JD had an MVP season in 2015 and received $8 mil and $17 mil for the 2 years.
Cecil got about $8 mil per year from St Louis after a poor 2016. Lets say Free Agency will do that.
Nobody forced either the player or the teams regarding the salary of $8 mil per year.

The Arb decision for Stroman and other 1st year Arb players will be announced next week. Maybe Monday. The low arb difference is basically irrelevant or meaningless IMO. But a 2 year multi year deal has a lot of meaning based on the value of the 2nd year.

Also JD's case is quite different. 2018 is his last year of Arb. I don't believe that anything is meaningless regarding 2018 and beyond. His 2017 performance will affect the 2018 salary and 2018 will affect his FA contract. It is too complicated for me to figure this out.

Maguire had 61 PAs in the Jays system. That's 0.04% of his minor league ABs.

That would make for a hell of a lot of minor league AB. I'm thinking you mean 4%.

It is too complicated for me to figure this out.

No player is ever going to get paid what he's worth during arbitration -- that's just the way the system is designed. It's not until free agency that he is paid his market value. Comparing players in the first camp with players in the second is pointless.

The Team should offer Josh Donaldson an extension: $100.0 Million over three years, telling him if he stays relatively healthy during that time they'll discuss year by year after that.

Re: the $300,000 difference between Stroman and the Jays: it might seem trivial, but don't forget the cascading effect for future arb years. A small amount now has an increasing impact on future arb awards, so it could cost millions over 3 years.

That is too much for JD as he will 32 when FA. That kind of contract would make it very difficult to negotiate the following contracts who would compare themselves to that rate. If JD wants more than 4/110, I believe he will be traded next off season.

If #3.1 Million is the number and Stroman has just an average year then something less than $6.0 Million is fair. If $3.4 Million is the number, then $7-ish Million is close. The better the year, the bigger the difference.

Mike, the rules regarding arbitration haven't changed. The Jays just have an internal policy to only agree on multi-year deals for individuals who elect arbitration.

Numerous teams have agreed on 1 year deals at roughly the mid-point. Take the Cubs and Strop for example.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/cubs-pedro-strop-avoid-arbitration.html

Sorry. I could have sworn that I read that a few years ago.

Anyways, if it is a Jay policy, it's a silly one. Some differences are not worth litigating.

Some Donaldson love at Fangraphs. Perhaps this was linked to already and I missed it.

I recently saw Donaldson in an episode of Vikings. On a not terribly well-acted show, his performance (one line) was fine. But career-wise, it's probably in his interest to try to make a go of this baseball thing.

Most people love to disagree. That's how the world works. Why? Because most people neither agree nor disagree most of the time, so things get done.

Josh Donaldson is a perennial and continuous MVP candidate. He is also a late bloomer who make a career change and became a true All Star. That type of player is priceless.

It was a change made by AA.

http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/2010/01/14/the-honeymoon-is-over/

The goal was to start negotiations sooner.

Apparently, almost all teams outsource their hearings. It's the player's agent that has to do all the work when they go to arbitration. 

Heh. $30 mil is the starting point for MVP caliber players nowadays. Offering less than that is a certain way to say goodbye to Donaldson. You can tell MLB has done a great job beating up the union since the early 2000's given the 3rd biggest deal ever was A-Rod's $250 mil deal in the 2000-01 offseason with only Giancarlo Stanton getting a bigger deal than A-Rod's big 2 deals.

There are 5 deals worth $30+ a year so far in MLB. 3 started in 2016, one each in 2015 and 2014 (Kershaw). What is weird is 4 of the 5 are for pitchers with only Miguel Cabrera breaking up the pitcher love. There have been 50 contracts worth $20+ mil a year (be it 1 or 10 years) including those 5. So far only A-Rod has gotten more than $20 mil while playing third base which seems odd to me.

So yes, a $30+ per year deal for JD would be record setting in a few ways but realistically MLB salaries have been held down by owners for years (believe it or not) so really he should push for it. He might sign for a 'low' $25+ per year over 5 years which would be a steal for the Jays. Fangraphs lists Donaldson at $50+ mil in value per year for the past 4 years each and every year. $60 for each of the past 2. So lets go with a massive drop off of $10 mil in value per year what do we get? $50 this year, then $40, $30, $20, $10, $0 over the 5 years a future contract would be. I'd expect that to be too pessimistic but still puts those 5 years at $100 million. If you average a $5 mil drop off per year you get $55 this year, $50, $45, $40, $30, $25 over the next 5 or $190 million. Seems too optimistic. So mid range is $145 million over 5 years or just shy of $30 per year. Wonder if he'd sign or if the Jays would offer that? He could move to 1B if his defense drops or even DH if it gets really bad but he is gold glove caliber right now. I'd expect those to be the ranges at the start of negotiations on an extension, with the Jays trying for a 3 year instead of 5. This is just a thumbnail done in a few minutes while changing my baby so expect the Jays to do a lot more intense study and the same for Donaldson.

The goal was to start negotiations sooner.

Or put differently, to have real negotiations occur at all in the pre-file period.

Far from being a "silly" policy, as Mike Green suggests it is, 'file and trial' makes a lot of sense in a blind FOS system. FOS, 'final offer selection' restricts the arbitrator to one of the two offers made. There is no splitting the difference. FOS prevents either side from making unrealistic offers in the belief that there is nothing to lose because the arbitrator will split the baby. In FOS, there is a real danger in an unrealistic offer, because you end up with whatever the other side offers, and most times there will have been a more attractive offer made during bargaining than the final offer the other side makes.

Because the final offers are blind, neither side knows what the other side will offer until the offers are exchanged. The Blue Jays are a 'file and trial' team, a policy initiated by the previous FO to eliminate the posturing that can take the place of real negotiations. Without 'file and trial' there can be a tendency for player agents to wait and see what the file numbers are, rather than negotiating beforehand, in the belief that it's better not to negotiate but to wait instead to see what your arbitration position is before you make any real negotiating move. This turns the pre-file negotiating period into meaningless posturing and rewards parties who decline to negotiate until they see their situation in final offer selection. Splitting the difference once the numbers are exchanged, not only undermines what you've already told the other side you'd do in bargaining, it also undermines you in the future by letting the agents know that if they just reject your offers in bargaining there will be more money later on.

Last year, I wrote how Donaldson's agent was unprepared to go where the comparators lay, and likely took less than he was offered in bargaining. That is the danger to parties who fail to negotiate a deal in the pre-filing period. The Jays aren't going to just split the difference now with Stroman and reverse what they've said all along, which is if you don't take our best offer we end up arbitrating. They're not going to tell agents in future bargaining that there will lbw more money after numbers are exchanged so just ignore our efforts to settle. The Blue Jays may have already offered Stroman 3.3 million. Stroman's team may have never been below 4 mill. in bargaining. Now they're at 3.1 and 3.4. If the Jays lose, it's no big deal. In fact, given that arbitrators like to have some wins on both sides, it's a good one for the club to lose as it's a small difference and it's an easy one to chalk up to the loss column. On the other hand, if they win, Stroman starts from a lower base next year. The media drama about how 'bad' arbitration is for the relationship is little more than reporters who understand little about the system trying to create drama for internet fans who know even less. Both sides present cases based on comparators. There' s not a lot of drama to it. Neither side craps on the other. It's just service time comparators.

Agreed. Arbitration is more about how much similar players in similar situations got in the past, and not an indictment of talent. Teams typically do not want to set a precedent with these deals. They will let the arbitrator do that. Or they'll bend a little bit if the player is willing to sign for more years. A straight up exchanging of numbers, regardless of how small the difference is, really isn't a big deal. If a player took it personally to the point where it negatively impacted the relationship and/or performance, then I'd be more concerned about that player's make up than I would anything else. Donaldson lost his arb case in 2015 and proceeded to win the MVP.

While players obviously want to win these cases, I don't think it really makes much of a difference to the majority of them. Stroman's getting a raise of at least $2.5M regardless.

BP 101 is out:

85. Sean Reid-Foley
93. Anthony Alford

I think I've missed Vlad, but I've scanned the list 5 times and haven't found him yet.

It's not the player, it's the agent that does the negotiations. If the player is involved at all, it's just to confirm his agent before the arbitrator.

I'm somewhat confused by the lack of love for Richard Urena. Here's a kid who's always been at least two years younger than the average player in every league he's ever played in the Jays' system; last year, given time split between High A and Double A, it was an average of three years younger. I think I read somewhere that he was leading the league in hits when he was promoted from Dunedin last year. He was 2.7 years younger than the average player in the FSL at the time. He then goes to Double A - where he's an average of 4.3 years younger than the competition - and his OPS over 30 games is a respectable .678. The Jays have promoted him aggressively and deservedly so. He's shown he can handle tough assignments. I suspect some lists aren't factoring his performance relative to the age of the league when assessing him.

urena indeed had a massive year last year.

overall, imo, the BA list is the only one which comes close to reflecting the performance and skillset of our top prospects at the moment, and i'm sure urena was in the discussion for their top 100 as well, at least from Manuel's perspective.

I would trust in the numbers even if none of the lists agreed but the fact that one of the lists - and arguably still the gold standard list - generally agrees is encouraging nevertheless.

Troy Tulowitzki is the only person who decides when Richard Urena is ready. Tulowitzki is the Starting Shortstop in 2017. As long as he shows he can handle the job, he will be the Starting Shortstop; 2018, 2019, 2020 and possibly 2021. When he can no longer be the Starting Shortstop, Richard Urena will be (unless traded).

But when they let Donaldson go to free agency, they'll need a third baseman.

I take all prospects list with a large grain of salt but judging by BP, the jays are certainly not a top 10 system, looks closer to keith law's rating - lots of Yankees & Red Sox before the 1st Jay and it must be a kick in the groin to have the much mocked Angels system have a higher rated prospect. Maybe Guerrero was too low in the minors to warrant consideration - there's always next year.

BP had McGuire and Ramirez at 76 and 80 last year.

Bichette makes BA's Honourable Mentions List:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/beyond-top-100-breakout-prospects-every-position/#DtoDwjzz7PKGR1Zp.97

Far from being a "silly" policy, as Mike Green suggests it is, 'file and trial' makes a lot of sense in a blind FOS system. FOS, 'final offer selection' restricts the arbitrator to one of the two offers made. There is no splitting the difference. FOS prevents either side from making unrealistic offers in the belief that there is nothing to lose because the arbitrator will split the baby. In FOS, there is a real danger in an unrealistic offer, because you end up with whatever the other side offers, and most times there will have been a more attractive offer made during bargaining than the final offer the other side makes.

What I find silly is making the "policy" hard and fast.  If you have a difference of under 10%, so say 3.2 and 3.4 million, it's obvious that both parties have a bona fide final position (nothing in salary negotiations is that precise).  If you will not (at least) try to settle that difference in any form of arbitration or litigation, you are just being pig-headed.  Obviously it's very different if the numbers are 3 million and 3.8 million (which they most often are).  I am not surprised that Epstein has a different policy.

It's a lot like the old self-imposed rule- "no free agent pitcher contracts longer than 3 years".  As a guideline, sure.  As a rule, silly.  Some pitchers are worth the commitment for more than 3 years. 

Josh Donaldson's final Arby year is 2018. I fully expect him to earn $25.0 - $27.5 Million then. I don't expect a fall-off much before 2021. I would offer him a three year contract (2018-2020) worth $100.0 Million. With that, you could get 1-3 option years worth $20.0 - $ 25.0 Million and $2.0 - $5.0 Million in buyouts. Anything less than 3 and 100 might not get that done.

Troy Tulowitzki won't be playing 3rd Base, Vladimir Guerrero Jr will.

The Jays have released Jimenez.  He was DFA'd last week, and the Jays presumably found no takers for him after he was designated for assignment.

Guerrero likely won't stick at 3B. And even if he could stick there, likely would never be able to provide the defensive value there that a Tulo or Urena probably would.

Salty must be really liking his chances for sticking on the big league squad now.

"Guerrero likely won't stick at 3B. And even if he could stick there, likely would never be able to provide the defensive value there that a Tulo or Urena probably would."

That is some solid analysis, right there.

A non-SS prospect won't provide the same defensive value at SS at the Major-League level than a SS who has produced 16.0 dWAR in his career?

The "analysis" you provide is entertaining and hilarious, especially when you choose to NOT homerize Blue Jays prospects. It'd be even funnier if you didn't act like you think you know what you're talking about...

Seems to me uglyone was talking about the 3B job, not SS. But I do find your misunderstanding hilarious, especially when you called him out for not knowing what he was talking about. And of course, if I am the one confused, I find that even funnier.

Not just "seems" mathesond, that's exactly what uglyone typed.

I guess Jiminez was surplus to requirements after Graterol was acquired. Maybe he's back on a minor league free agent deal, but he clearly wasn't on this front office's radar.

I think that Vladdy does stick at 3B for a few years, but uglyone was clearly referring to production down the road, not career production- it's a perfectly defensible opinion.

I'm hopeful too that Vladdy can stick for a few years at 3B - he certainly profiles as a 1B, but after last year, I'm willing to believe this kid may continue to surprise.

Our minor league catching depth is now Graterol and Ohlman in AAA, McGuire and Alex Monsalve in AA.  Based on what limited info I've read, Ohlman may be more of a 1B.  Salty seems a given for the backup job, but I'd still like to add another AAAA guy for spring training assuming Jiminez is gone. 

I might be mistaken, but why would ugly choose to compare Urena and Guerrero to Tulowitzki?

Maybe while he's at it, he could compare Tellez's defensive value to Tulo's.

Parker, my man, you have to try reading first. then re-reading second. then posting third.

1.Richard mentioned that Urena was blocked at SS by Tulo.

2.I mentioned that 3B would likely be a hole in need of filling in short order, meaning 3B/SS would be open for Tulo/Urena, if Urena could handle it.

3.Richard mentioned that Guerrero was the 3B of the future.

4.I expressed doubt that Vladdy was actually a 3B, and that even if he could hack it passably there, the defensive value Urena/Tulo could bring to the position might probably make them a better fit there, with Vladdy being a better fit for 1B/DH/LF/RF.


5.You proceeded to have one of your hilarious uglyone hissy fits again.

Guerrero likely won't stick at 3B. And even if he could stick there, likely would never be able to provide the defensive value there that a Tulo or Urena probably would.

Guerrero will likely never be able to provide equivalent value at 3B to Tulo or Urena.

Um, yeah, he probably won't? Tulo and Urena would be moving left on the defensive spectrum if they moved to 3B. Guerrero is athletic but hasn't provided any defensive value even at 3B.

I read what you posted, but I'm still trying to figure out what you meant by it. Are you saying that Guerrero might not ever be as good defensively as Tulo or Urena?

You're probably right?

Good for you...?

I wonder if in the end the bigger problem with Jimenez is that his defense just never ended up being what it was supposed to be.

I always find the idea that anything is certain to happen two weeks from now dubious.  And two years?  No way.

Will Vladimir Guerrero be ready to be a major league third baseman at the beginning of 2019?  Damned if I know.  Heck, I'd be straining to guess whether he might be ready to be a major league DH then.  And if you ask me  to project the health of Tulowitzki in two years, I'll take the fifth.  It is fair to say that the club does have some reasonably possible decent options beyond Donaldson at third base after 2018, and that's about as far as it goes.  I'd still be much happier if Donaldson was back for 2019 and beyond.

BA interestingly likes Bichette as a third baseman.  He can get in line too.

yeah, my only real point is that Urena isn't really blocked in any real way.

Maybe time to refresh what our system looks like by hopeful future position (and what level they'll probably be at this year):

CF Pompey 24 AAA
RF Alford 22 AA
LF Ramirez 22 AAA
3B Bichette 19 A-
SS Urena 21 AA
2B Gurriel 23 AAA
1B Guerrero 18 A
DH Tellez 22 AAA
C McGuire 22 AAA

OF Palacios 21 A
OF Woodman 22 A
C Jansen 22 AA
C Pentecost 24 A+



SP Reid-Foley 21 AA
SP Greene 22 AA
SP Rios 22 AA
SP Harris 23 AA
SP Maese 20 A+
SP Zeuch 21 A+

RP Borucki 23 A+
RP Perdomo 23 A+
RP Jackson 22 A

Someone doesn't know very much about Adam Lind.

"Lind could also occasionally play left field to spell Jayson Werth".

Lind was a disaster in the outfield when he last played there, 7 years ago.

"Nats sign first-baseman/DH Lind" wouldn't have gone over too well in Washington.  It's too bad that they misspelled pinch-hitter "o-u-t-f...".

Regarding Jimenez.
Looking at our catching depth.
Jays Martin & Salty.
AAA Graterol as the main guy getting most of the ABs. Except 2014 was the most ABs at 266.That is not much. Neither are the 16 ABs in the Majors. Looks like he needs a solid and durable backup.
AA R McGuire. But maybe AAA. His ABs are 389, 374 and 319 in the last 3 years. I like that quantity of ABs. I also like his youth 22 on March 2.
Some more catchers are needed IMO.

Thank God the Pitchers and Catchers report tomorrow. Maybe we can start talking about the Team. Various pundits are saying the Jays are working on 6th Starter, 7th Starter possibilities for the Rotation.

Thank you for your list Uglyone. I like your aggressiveness with our best prospects.

Vlad at Lansing.
McGuire in AAA. I mentioned that, but you said it first.
Pentecost A+.
Jansen AA. He is my Lance Parrish, big man. I hope he stays healthy.
Lansing...???

So again thank you. When do you think that you will add to your list. Maybe March 10-15?

Re: catching depth

It now seems likely that McGuire will be at Buffalo with Graterol and Jansen at NH. Of course, things could change by opening day. Doesn't make sense to release Jimenez unless to open a spot for McGuire imo.

If there's no choice but to fill 3B with someone in the system, I'm guessing Gurriel.
Would make more sense to sign Donaldson to whatever he's asking and trade him away if someone better shows up.

For the immediate, the 3B backup is Barney. Pearce played 2 games there last year but he's still recovering from elbow surgery.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/royals-to-sign-travis-wood.html

Another LHP the Jays don't get.

On Gurriel, I keep reading that's the team is thinking of him in LF - it'll be his quickest route to the Show. Assuming - he can actually get his batting eye/muscle reflexes up to speed by mid-season or so.

I still say Tulo slides to 3b and Urena gets called up.

bpoz it's a bit aggressive but i was trying to guess where they would spend the most time this year, not necessarily what level they will be at from the start.

Thanks uglyone. I understand. I am all for aggressive promoting. Tellez for example is so close to the Jays.
Dwight Smith Jr if hot can be called up. He is like the 5th OF of the 4th OF variety. It is a wide open competition.

Biagini on record as wanted to start. Understand that means going to Buffalo. Not trying to pressure the team or anything.

"If somebody's saying 'Hey, who wants an opportunity to start?', I would raise my hand."

Atkins also mentioned the possibility of Biagini starting in AAA.

“There’s definitely that possibility, but I wouldn’t say we’re leaning that way by any means because he was so important to our bullpen a year ago,” general manager Ross Atkins said Monday. “We’ve talked about it. He really would like to be considered a starting alternative and he recognizes what that means. He recognizes that means he could potentially have to spend some time in triple-A.”

Two SP's will be free agents after 2017, and the chances of a prospect in the minors being a legit rotation option for 2018 is a bit of a stretch at this point. Biagini stretching out in AAA has to be considered even if it's a bit of a hit to the pen short-term. He can help the rotation in 2017 (as depth) and beyond in that role. I guess it depends on how they view him long-term.

Biagini is most likely to spend 2017 as a multiple innings BP guy - but depending on the performance of others - Floyd,Bolsonger,Loup,Sparkman etc. could allow the Jays the option of having Biagini start in Buffalo - which is what the FO probably wants (not Gibbons) and with 2 starters in their FA years, its the best outcome for the franchise.

The reason I don't think Biagini goes to AAA (unless he sucks) is past usage. Sure, there's different staff and management, but if you plan for it, transitioning a guy with a few short starts happens a bunch. I'm pretty sure the Jays did it with Walker and/or Downs and others.

I think this situation with Biagini is fluid and won't be decided until the end of ST. However, it might be wise to listen to the GM and not remain cemented in one's own bias.

My reading of the latest Atkins comments is that Buffalo is a possibility for Biagini, but not a likelihood.  As Atkins himself says, they are not "leaning that way." 

One reason why Biagini in Buffalo remains a possibility: the Jays haven't acquired as many depth pitchers as I had expected.  They don't really have an obvious 6th starter (of Hutchison calibre) lined up for the Buffalo rotation.  I thought by now they would have acquired a 6th starter of that calibre, but they haven't done so.  Bolsinger is a candidate for that role, but they could lose him on waivers if he doesn't make the Toronto bullpen, so they can't count on his availability.  Lacking an obvious 6th starter, there's a possibility that they could see Biagini in that role, although I don't think it's likely, for the reasons that others have mentioned.

If the Jays acquired another reliable reliever on the free-agent market, they could afford to send Biagini to Buffalo.  They haven't done so, and my feeling is that the bullpen would be too thin without Biagini, and I suspect the Jays see it that way too.

In any event, given how slow-developing the free-agent market has been this year, it's still possible that the Jays could acquire another pitcher or two this month, and that could still influence Biagini's fate.  Barring any unforeseen acquisitions, I would still predict that Biagini will be in the Toronto bullpen in April, even after being stretched out in the spring.

Another possibility is that some in house relievers like 98mph Chris Smith could surprise in ST and earn a shot. If the FO feels good about the pen, I think they send Biagini to Buffalo. He can be brought back at a moments notice. This is an evolving situation and no-one , including Atkins, is sure how it will evolve.

"....He can be brought back at a moments notice...."

That's a good point.  Perhaps if the Jays have new doubts about one of their starting five pitchers, or if there's an injury, they could send him to Buffalo for a week or two, to get him ready for the rotation.  But barring that scenario, I think Biagini is too valuable to drop from the 25-man roster.  He can pitch multiple innings and high-leverage innings.  He might be the 2nd-best or 3rd-best reliever on the team (given Grilli's age and sometimes-shaky performance at the end of last season). I don't think the Jays will want to lose Biagini from their bullpen unless they really have serious concerns about their rotation.

What I'm criticizing, basically, is the idea of sending Biagini to Buffalo as a "just in case" depth option.  Hutchison had that role last year, and the Jays only needed him for 2 starts.  Often a 6th starter is rarely needed.  Why waste Biagini in that role when he could be delivering valuable innings in the majors?

Devon Travis is not yet in the BSOHL, but he's getting there. 

I had not heard of the now-famous Chance the Rapper before Devon Travis introduced him via his walk-up music.  I'm more grateful for that than the introduction (also by walk-up) to Thomas Rhett.

Sixth starters are needed a lot. The Jays just had really good luck with health last season. Having Hutch in AAA and Chavez in the bigs was a pretty good luxury to have. They don't have that anymore. If Bolsinger reverts back to his pre-2016 form, then he's probably a solid swing man option, but outside of that, it's slim. If Biagini spends a month or two getting high leverage relief innings where he's pitching 2 days in a row or 3 in 4 days, etc, then it will be tough(er) to stretch him back out if a need arises.

I agree it's something that is probably fluid and will be decided based on circumstances. If Estrada shows up to ST and his back is acting up, then the decision is made for them (for example).

Often a 6th starter is rarely needed

Jeff Sullivan's research suggests that teams get on average 32 starts from a pitcher who is not one of their top 5.  It seems like a wise thing to plan for.  In the Blue Jays case, they have Estrada's back and Liriano's mild traumatic brain injury to concern themselves with. I don't know if that is more or less worry than most teams- I would guess a little less.  But still.  Even if an average season for the Blue Jays in 2017 would involve 25 starts by somebody other than the top 5, that is pretty important. 

The more important question is whether Biagini is actually good SP depth.

"....It seems like a wise thing to plan for...."

Of course the Jays should have a plan for a 6th starter.  My point is:  you don't need to have a 6th starter sitting in Buffalo, contributing nothing to the 25-man roster.  The 6th starter can be in the bullpen. 

"....Liriano's mild traumatic brain injury...."

You've said this a few times, but I've seen zero evidence from the Jays that this is a concern for anyone.

In any event, if the health situation is worrisome for some reason, the Jays should go out and acquire a 6th starter, rather than cannibalizing the bullpen by sending Biagini to Buffalo.

Stroman won in arbitration according to Heyman. He gets $3.4M in 2017 instead of $3.1M.

I agree with the fact that Biagini can be a swingman out of the bullpen rather than going to AAA. Villaneueva comes to mind as a success story here.

The only reason to put him in AAA would be if he needs to work on a third pitch- which I don't think is necessary. Conversely, I feel like pushing for a full conversion to starter (i.e. with a demotion to AAA) runs the risk of turning him into the next Daniel Bard.

Liriano's injury wouldn't be my concern with him (although I do think that there is a non-zero chance that it affects him), I'd be more concerned with him turning into a pumpkin.

In that sense it would be nice to have one more experienced arm in the system.

I suggest Latos, who could also work in a bullpen role.

Good point about Latos.  In fact, number of experienced starters are still available on the free-agent market, even at this late date.  The Jays should be able to sign one of them and put them in the bullpen as rotation depth. 

Here's a good list of the free-agent starters who are still available:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/mlbtr-poll-best-remaining-free-agent-starter.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

I agree, CF, that you don't need to have a 6th starter in Buffalo.  You can have him in Toronto doing medium leverage long relief.  Here's the idea.  On day 1, you have a tight game and the starter goes 6 innings.  You run through your high leverage short relievers in the 7th, 8th and 9th.  On day 2, you have a tie game or a lead and the starter is out by or before the 7th inning.  You bring in Biagini and let him take it at least two innings, and maybe to finish the game (depending on the situation and how he is pitching). 

Biagini had 11 outings of 2 innings last year, but none more than that.  Ideally, if you get him some 3+ inning games in April and May, he should be ready for the 6th starter role if it becomes necessary.  That means stretching him out in spring training to 3 innings probably. 

Biagini, of course, has his own unique interpretation of what "being stretched out" means.

His explanation is here:  https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/831599878459387904

The Spring training broadcast schedule is here.  TV coverage starts a week from Sunday. 

The only reason to put him in AAA would be if he needs to work on a third pitch- which I don't think is necessary.

Last year, Biagini threw his curve has much as his slider, over 17% of the time each. He used his change up only 6% of the time, but there's nothing wrong with that.  He needs to work on different things like pacing, repeating his delivery, adjusting to hitters, building his arm strength, etc...

There are several reasons to put Biagini in AAA.

In the short term, it lets the Jays put one pitcher that's out of option--Floyd, Bolsinger or some other guy who got cut by another team--in the bullpen in April.

In the middle term, it gives the Jays a stretched up starter ready to cover up if needed in April-June. Biagini is not Hutchison, he can move back to the pen when the Jays need him.

In the long term, it sets Biagini to compete for a starting position next year which would save the team 10~18M on another starter. That's money they can spend elsewhere.

All of that evaporates if there's a pressing need in Toronto.

When we consider that the Jays must get back to the Postseason, normal procedures should not all apply. Players without options should not make the Team unless they are the best of all possible options. There is enough depth to cover that.

Stroman won in arbitration according to Heyman. He gets $3.4M in 2017 instead of $3.1M.

Good for him.

Ironically, I feel Odorizzi's decision is more important.
4.1M in his  first year of arbitration? Is that the 5th highest salary on the team?
They might have to trade him soon.

I agree with Richard SS. Lets field the best team possible regardless of options or any other reason.

There is a season in 2018 and beyond. That has to be taken in account. The stated goal is sustained contention, which can only be achieved by building up the system to strength at every level and holding on to as many assets as possible. A team that goes all in without being in that position usually pays dearly for it. Those expecting the Jays to do that are going to be disappointed.

There's a huge difference between going all in and keeping the best available team out of spring training.  I can't see a decision to go with, say, Danny Barnes over Mike Bolsinger having any real implications beyond this season.  I'm with the posters who want the best team available out of spring training, even if it means losing marginal assets like Goins or Bolsinger. 

Hey Joe,

When asked whether you preferred to start or relieve, you said you were OK with being a "star-liever".  The word you wanted was "starver"- make the batters walk back to the dugout hungry no matter what your role is.

Affectionately,

Mike
P.S.  How cool is that you share a name with our Prime Minister- I think that it's a sign of long and beautiful friendship between you and our country...

When it comes to the 24/25th men on the roster I'm not picky. Generally the spread between 'best' and 'second best' will not be measurable by spring performances. Yeah, someone will get hot and someone will not. Take advantage of options and keep as much depth in AAA as possible as by June it will be needed. Don't sacrifice 2 wins in June/July/August/September for 1 win today (maybe). Sometimes starting the clock early on a player works (Osuna) sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes keeping the guy with no options works, sometimes it flops. Options should be a deciding factor in close races but if a guy has clearly earned a slot then you gotta put him on the team (ala Osuna a couple years ago).

Have I missed it or has no one said anything yet about Stroman (in the photo above) wearing a glove on the wrong hand.

Heh. Stroman was probably just acting like I do when playing with my kids. Having fun. I do that too and throw left handed here and there. Its a pathetic sight but I can do it. Probably wouldn't hit 20 on the radar gun (my best for the right arm is in the 50's - when people think your hardest pitch is a knuckleball you know you aren't too athletic.)