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Breaking News Return Of The Prodigal Son
It appears that Jose Bautista is coming back on a one, or two, or one plus an option year deal. Details are yet to be confirmed but it seems as though both sides want the deal to happen. The first year salary will be for more than $17.2M.

Also it appears that Michael Saunders is off to Philadelphia, presumably because Jose is coming back to the Jays.

So, will the Jays be younger? Nope. Will they be faster? Nope. More left handed? Maybe a little. Further evidence that battle plans do not survive contact with the enemy.

There is a story out of Pittsburgh today that claims the Pirates and Jays discussed a trade that would have sent Andrew McCutcheon and reliever Tony Watson to Toronto. The story says Joe Biagini, Vladdy Jr, Rowdy Tellez, Sean Reid-Foley and Harold Ramirez were offered to the Pirates. My interpretation is that the Pirates asked for Vladdy, SRF and Tellez and the Jays countered with Biagini and Ramirez, or some other combination. The Jays did not offer all of these players for the two Pirates, that would have cleaned out the farm system and be a wild overpay.

Discuss, as news is revealed.

Posted by Gerry on Monday, January 16 2017 @ 12:34 PM EST.
Return Of The Prodigal Son | 266 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ayjackson - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 12:52 PM EST (#337704) #
I'd guess it's $18m plus a team option for $22m or a $4m buyout.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 12:54 PM EST (#337705) #
They will be younger. Starting rotation is younger without Dickey. There will likely be a couple of younger arms in pen. If AJ is backup C, team will be younger at that position. It is a gradual process and this is a start.
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Craig B - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 01:14 PM EST (#337706) #
Well, I'm not unhappy to have Bautista back even at the expense of not retaining Saunders. If we did turn down a deal for McCutchen, though, I'm heartbroken (even if the mooted raft of prospects would have been an overpay). Just because he's a personal favorite.

The Bautista move probably improves us from being the third favourite in the East to being... the third favourite in the East. Oh well.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 01:24 PM EST (#337707) #
who do you think is the 2nd favourite? Seems like Jays to me.
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ayjackson - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 01:27 PM EST (#337708) #
How different are we today (bullpen completion aside) from what we were entering the playoffs?

Pearce/Morales for EE.

That's it, effectively. no?
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Richard S.S. - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 01:43 PM EST (#337709) #
If Vladimir Guerrero, Sean Reid-Foley and Rowdy Tellez don't bring back Andrew McCutcheon, the Pirates don't know what they are doing. I was sure they had issues when they traded Liriano and two Prospects. Now I know.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 01:47 PM EST (#337710) #
I would not put any one of those players in a trade for Cutch, let alone all 3. There is zero chance the FO would ever make such a trade. Some of you are not listening or paying attention to what they are saying and doing.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:06 PM EST (#337711) #
How different are we today (bullpen completion aside) from what we were entering the playoffs?

If we agree there's more than just Bullpen completion needed. After all, we are presently using:
1) Replacement level equivalent LF platoon with Melvin Upton JR (Ezequiel Carrera or Dalton Pompey). Neither are good enough, we must be better.
2) Replacement level Backup Catcher. This should be third option.

Morales bats fourth. and breaks up the run of 7 straight RHB.
Steve Pearce adds very good defense and more speed.
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eudaimon - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:07 PM EST (#337712) #
I'm pumped if this is true. Bautista's been my favourite player for years, even pre-breakout, so it's nice to see him back, especially when I prepared for him to leave. I also think he's a good sign from a budgetary front, and has a good chance to produce good value over the life of the contract. I'd like to see him play some 1B, but I don't mind if he's an outfielder either - he's not great out there, but I don't think it's a huge problem either.

I think the team is actually slightly faster, mostly due to Saunders leaving. I assume he'll be replaced by either a platoon of fast guys (Upton, Carrera) or maybe even Pompey if he can pull it together. On the other hand, Morales is probably a bit slower than Eddy if not by much.

I like Saunders the guy, but as a player I'm glad he's gone. I feel like the first half of 2016 was his peak, and I won't miss his nearly 30% strikeout rate.

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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:17 PM EST (#337713) #
It's morales/pearce for encarnacion/saunders.

remember Saunders - the guy that hit better and had more defensive value than morales.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:27 PM EST (#337714) #
As Morales is not required to play defense, his supposed defensive value is irrelevant. Saunders had negative defensive value as he was required to play in the field. He was one of the worst defensive OF's I have ever seen and a very poor base runner as well....no baseball IQ whatsoever. Pearce is a far better player and Morales is a far better addition than you contend. He will be far more cost effective than EE.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:27 PM EST (#337715) #
Bautista isn't being signed because he's a great baseball assset. He's being signed because of the PR optics. He doesn't make the Jays any better, but he makes them put more butts in Skydome seats and gets more viewers tuning in to Sportsnet.

It's not the greatest baseball move, but it's a great PR move, and the only one left when Encarnacion wouldn't sign. Bautista might not even be replacement level next year, but he's going to make some money for a team that badly needs a feel-good story this offseason. Once he utterly craters this year, fans will be happy to let him walk, and hopefully the prospects will be a year closer to becoming positive contributors.

When Saunders produces more value than Morales in 2017, I'll be more than happy to pay for uglyone's season tickets.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:29 PM EST (#337716) #
Just to clarify that, I'm talking about the season tickets uglyone has already committed to for 2017.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:29 PM EST (#337717) #
Bautista has always projected as one of the mpst valuable FAs this offseason.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:32 PM EST (#337718) #
"As Morales is not required to play defense, his supposed defensive value is irrelevant. Saunders had negative defensive value as he was required to play in the field."

There's nothing to do with requirements. Saunders played the field because he could, morales didn't because he couldn't.

And now Bautista is forced to stay in the field fulltime because morales can't.
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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:33 PM EST (#337719) #
I'm genuinely confused by this comment.  Bautista might not even be replacement level next year?  That's a really negative view to take considering the guy was worth 10.7 WAR over 2014-2015.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:34 PM EST (#337720) #
I think you are wrong about Bautista Parker. While PR may have been taken into account, it is a good baseball move as well, especially if the guaranteed commitment is not more than one year. I expect he will put up better offensive numbers than he did last year.
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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:35 PM EST (#337721) #
The commentary has somewhat suggested they are thinking about using Morales more at 1B than we might like.  If Bautista does return, I imagine this guarantees Morales some extra 1B time, just to ensure Jose gets 25-40 games at DH.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:35 PM EST (#337722) #
Don't be confused by what Parker says. Just remember that his only opinion is to hold the opposite opinion to mine.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:43 PM EST (#337723) #
PeterG

All of us are listening to what Shapiro/Atkins says about prospects. Do you understand what unacceptable alternatives are?

When no one can make the Jays better just only worse, that's unacceptable. When you don't have choices, doing nothing is no longer an option. At some point Shapiro/Atkins will trade prospects and it will break someone's heart. Who you get always matters. Who you trade sometimes doesn't matter.
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rpriske - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:43 PM EST (#337724) #
If this turns out to be a one-year deal, I am happy.

If it turns out to be a two-year deal, I am slightly less happy.

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mathesond - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:44 PM EST (#337725) #
Gee, it took fewer than 20 comments for uglyone and Parker to begin sniping at each other. Maybe next thread they can start within the first 10!
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BlueJayWay - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:46 PM EST (#337726) #
That's a very pessimistic outlook on Batista, Parker.
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BlueJayWay - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:48 PM EST (#337727) #
*Bautista
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:51 PM EST (#337728) #
I hope I'm wrong about Bautista. If he wasn't required to play in RF I have no doubt he'll be well above replacement level. His defence is very poor, though, and getting worse every year. I'd love to see any projections based on how he's supposed to improve on that at age-37.

If he was a full-time DH, he'd be alright. If he learns how to play 1B, he'd probably be fine. But the Jays already committed to three players between 1B and DH for 2017, and you're not asking a guy you just signed for $20M a year to give up his position.

Bautista is a PR move. I'm not against it. It's just not a baseball move.
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Vulg - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:52 PM EST (#337729) #
Bautista isn't being signed because he's a great baseball assset. He's being signed because of the PR optics. He doesn't make the Jays any better, but he makes them put more butts in Skydome seats and gets more viewers tuning in to Sportsnet.

Err, he also happens to be the best remaining OF option in terms of projected performance - pick your methodology (eg. WAR, counting stats) ... so, very much a baseball move.

At a minimum, they're way better off than they were prior to the signing when they were facing the ugly possibility of giving Upton more ABs, a player who actually projects as a replacement level player after striking out over 150 times for the 8th (!) time in his career and losing a step defensively.
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Spifficus - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:57 PM EST (#337730) #
It's important to remember when pronouncing Morales as a DH-only that he spent the last two years with the Royals. Hosmer is perceived as a good defender, and was always going to play 1B when able. I don't take Morales' limited playing time there as an indication of what he's capable of.

As for perspective Bautista signing, it's a good baseball move in any of the rumoured configurations, 1, 1+1, or 2 years (presuming the sub-$20M yearly price). He's a 2-4 win player at a position of need for the team. That leaves the other OF spot for a platoon of Upton and Carrera, with my hope that Pompey forces his way into that spot by mid-summer. That OF would make me pretty happy.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 02:59 PM EST (#337731) #
Richard, prospects will be traded when the time is right which it isn't at this time. When you have more than you need, then you can deal. You seem to have missed the message that building is the primary concern now. It is not unacceptable to not make the ALCS every year. In fact, it is almost impossible to do so.

The main difference between the previous FO and this one concerning prospects is that AA viewed prospects only as currency while the current FO views them as future Jays. Time has proven the latter approach to work better.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:06 PM EST (#337732) #
Yeah it broke my heart when Daniel Norris was traded and it was an extremely foolish move. It might have helped for one year and hurt us for 6. Very poor odds imo.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:09 PM EST (#337733) #
norris wouldn't even make our rotation this year.
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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:12 PM EST (#337734) #
I really, really hope we can do better than Carrera as the primary option against RHP, especially when Brandon Moss, Chris Coghlan, Angel Pagan, etc, are still out there.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:12 PM EST (#337735) #
Don't be foolish Ugly. Norris would easily be ahead of Stroman and possibly Liriano. I cannot predict what Liriano will do this year but there is a good chance he will be less effective than Norris.
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electric carrot - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:14 PM EST (#337736) #
Glad to have Bautista back. The terms look great for the team. I bet he slugs 30 homers this year with a low batting average and decent OBA. Good to have him in the middle of this lineup. I hope he ends up DHing and playing 1B more than he did last year.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:16 PM EST (#337737) #
i'm not being foolish. he wouldn't make the rotation.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:17 PM EST (#337738) #
Not to mention that a good trade could be available now if we had 6 starters instead of 5. Jays want to deal Stroman. You can take that to the bank. They can't at this time due to lack of starting pitching depth.

In real time news, Rosenthal now reports that JBO deal will be one year with mutual option which means basically one year.
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whiterasta80 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:26 PM EST (#337739) #
I agree completely Spifficus. While it has been a while, Morales was a perfectly competent first basemen the last time he played significant time there.
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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:28 PM EST (#337740) #
Daniel Norris would "easily be ahead of Stroman"? 
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dalimon5 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:30 PM EST (#337741) #
Good points Peter,

Ugly, Norris definitely is better than at least 2, maybe 3 of the options in our rotation right now. Both today and especially in the next 3-5 years. Look at his numbers when healthy. Even if he doesn't make the rotation this year, he would have made it last year instead of Dickey and we could have acquired someone else instead of Liriano and saved the 15 million or so he will make this year.

One thing is certain, if you could trade prospects like Hoffman and Norris for Price and Tulowitzki and still have high end SP prospects of their calibre in the system, that is the best (and hardest route to build) for management to take. NYY and BOS are way ahead of the Jays there already.

Parker, if Jose signing is a PR move then it wouldn't be happening on January 16th. He provides tons of value in the context of what the Jays would be running out there if they a)signed one of the other options b) traded away assets for OF help 3)used in-house options who realistically probably would have performed at or below replacement level

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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:31 PM EST (#337742) #
Marcus Stroman has put up 7.1 WAR in 361.2 IP so far.  I honestly cannot understand how much you are underrating him here.
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SK in NJ - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:32 PM EST (#337743) #
Not a fan of a mutual option as that means it is effectively a one year deal. Has a mutual option ever resulted in the option being picked up by both sides? I'd imagine the list of teams/players to do that is either small or non-existent.

Even if Bautista puts up a 3 WAR season, if you factor his 2017 salary (probably around $18M if the rumor is to believed) combined with whatever dollar value you place on the pick ($8-10M), and he'd barely be worth it from that standpoint. Of course, if they saw the pick as being unlikely with JB possibly sitting out until June, then that changes the valuation.
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dalimon5 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:34 PM EST (#337744) #
Agreed Stroman makes most sense to deal away if possible. But you're living on another planet if Norris is easily better than Stroman. I don't think Stroman is going to get better, only worse, but he has elite level numbers in many rankings of SP. Pitch movement, GB%, I think swinging strikes...his pitches rate at an elite level and he has gone on runs that are simply dominant. Norris is like the 2nd coming of Matt Moore. Both highly touted LSP with control issues.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:43 PM EST (#337745) #
Norris numbers much better than Stroman last year.
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Jevant - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:48 PM EST (#337746) #
Am I missing something, or are K/9 and ERA are the only numbers Norris was better in, and Stroman threw 130 more IP.  What numbers are you looking at? 
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:50 PM EST (#337747) #
Well, Detroit's defence is awful. There's that.
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pubster - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:50 PM EST (#337748) #
Bautista will help the Jays put more butts in the seats because winning games puts butts in the seats. And Bautista will help the Jays win more games. =)

I'm hoping Bautista is going to be playing 1b. Pearce/Pillar/Upton/ of? Bautista and the 4th OF can let Pearce play some 1b if needed.

Smoak late inning defensive replacement.
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dalimon5 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:50 PM EST (#337749) #
Not to mention Norris has a worse track record and was pitching in a pitcher's park with weaker line ups compared to Stroman who was experimenting last year with a cutter at the expense of his slider.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:57 PM EST (#337750) #
Kendrys Morales is a career .995 as a 1B. Broken foot aside, it's something you don't forget how to do.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:57 PM EST (#337751) #
stroman vs. norris is not a close comparison.

and while i have my issues with shapiro Inc, i know they know the numbers say it clearly.
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ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 03:58 PM EST (#337752) #
Michael Saunders reportedly has been signed to a 9 Million $ contract with the Phillies. I am a bit surprised he got that much, considering he doesn't play good defense, and strikes out a lot, and is injury prone, and doesn't have the DH spot to fill, and ... oh, well, what do I know.
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pubster - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 04:01 PM EST (#337753) #
Norris was great against lefties last year.

However, right handers OPS'ed .800 against him.

He's going to have to figure out how to get righties out to be truly effective.

Stroman held righties to below .700 OPS and lefties to about .740.

They both have a chance to be very good.

Small sample size, but Liriano had a 2.92 era as a Jay.
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Mylegacy - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 04:11 PM EST (#337754) #
Jose had a wasted year last year - He. Was. Injured. Most. Of. The. Year. This year, god willin' an' the river don't rise - he will be healthier. I suspect he'll be pissed he didn't get his 20 year 5 Zillion $ contract and will put up the best year in MLB history by a 52 year old! Or even a 36 or 37 year old - whatever age his mother knows he really is.

As to Saunders. A tale of two halves (as we all know) - I prefer to call it: A tale of two knees. I would take the 2 kneed version in a heartbeat. The one knee version - not so much.

I will know that Jose has had a great year if by next October we have all forgotten the US has just elected Sh*t For Br*ins as Dog Catcher.

Morales is a good switch hitter. He will, at least, make us forget Craig Kusick, from our immortal world beating 1979 team.

Now - the real story of 2017's success or failure will be written on the injury reports, or lack thereof, of our five starters.
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vw_fan17 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 04:29 PM EST (#337755) #
I will know that Jose has had a great year if by next October we have all forgotten the US has just elected Sh*t For Br*ins as Dog Catcher.

Please keep politics out of these threads. We have some US-based fans (myself included), and it's a pretty contentious issue still.
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Mylegacy - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 04:47 PM EST (#337756) #
"...and it's a pretty contentious issue still."

"Still" Really. After ALL this time!! Who'd a thunk it.

However, fear not, my lips and fingers are sealed, no more "politics" from me!
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Richard S.S. - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 05:22 PM EST (#337757) #
I started laughing at the Uncles, Aunt and Cousins from the US over 50 years ago. About two years later I started laughing at all Americans. When your Economy started circling the drain I started laughing at everyone else. You elect your Dog Catchers and everything else and that's funny.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 06:07 PM EST (#337758) #
If the Democrats hadn't run out the Wicked Witch of the East and assumed that the Presidency was in the bag, nobody would have to complain about an idiot failed businessman like Trump being elected.

All the voters did as a whole was to pick the person they hated less.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 06:10 PM EST (#337759) #
Richard, I'm assuming that you voted for Notley?

Actually, I don't care. This isn't a political forum and I apologize.
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dalimon5 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 06:14 PM EST (#337760) #
Wow...we need moderators.
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Michael - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 06:54 PM EST (#337761) #
Battista was way worse last year than he was the previous six years; he was still a useful player last year. He had injury issues last year. If he plays this year like he did last year than 1yr/18-20M is an overpay by about $10M. If he plays like he did two+ years ago then 1yr/18-20M is an underway by about $10M. Likely he will be somewhere in the middle (healthier, but older, plexiglass/regress to the mean).
I enjoy Bautista's swagger/ego/attitude. Does everyone forget the flip? If we went back one year I'm pretty sure most fans would have rather had Bautista than EE. Yes, EE had another great year and Bautista had a poor one, but still there is a decent chance we get an all-star caliber season at a position of need with a player who likes Toronto (city, fans, teammates). How great is that? I'm happy!
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scottt - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:09 PM EST (#337762) #
I'm still waiting for it to be official, but there's no better options for the Jays than Bautista.

Yeah, Morales is a slow runner, but it's moot if the next hitter walks and homers a lot.
It would have been nice to have a left handed outfielder with speed lead off so that Donaldson has something to drive, but at least there's still 2 good bats behind him to bring him home.

Now, if Bautista is the worse defender in the outfield, I hope he moves to left of his own initiative and that Gibby replaces him in late innings. I'm sure he'd understand the risk of injury trying to make a game ending  play when he's only got one more chance at free agency.

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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:27 PM EST (#337763) #
I don't think Bautista is going to get better or healthier as he gets older. I don't know why anyone thinks he will.

He's going to be 36 for the 2017 season and he declined significantly at the plate in his age-35 season. You could blame his 2016 decline on injuries, but that as a rule, older players get hurt more. Bautista missed 60 games in 2012 and 40 games in 2013 due to injuries. When he was back to full health in 2014 and 2015, he continued to decline from his healthy peak production. As well, he hasn't been even an average fielder since 2013, and he's been an awful fielder since then. And the Jays are going to give him almost full-time innings in RF, because who else is going to play there?

If he doesn't have to keep running into the right-field wall there's a dead-cat-bounce argument to be made, but the fact remains that he's gotten worse as he's gotten older, the way every player other than Barry Bonds does at his age. Expecting a 2-4 WAR season from him seems unreasonably optimistic. Expecting him to be better than his 1 WAR 2016 is a stretch. Predicting better health and renewed production in this scenario just doesn't make any sense to me. Sorry.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:31 PM EST (#337764) #
Happ got better at age 34.

Maybe you should just trust the front office on this one.
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PeterG - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:38 PM EST (#337765) #
As much as I disagree with Ugly on Norris, I do agree with his more positive assessment of Bautista. I see no reason whatsoever not to expect his 2017 season to be better than 2016. And one year is fine with me as I think there are some fine OF's on the way.
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SK in NJ - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:51 PM EST (#337766) #
Bautista's batted ball profile wasn't too off base from his norm, and he was still walking as much as ever. Obviously when you reach your late-30's there's always a chance of steep decline, but I think a healthy and motivated Bautista could do some damage offensively in 2017. His defense is another story.

A one year deal in isolation is not bad. Limits a lot of the risk associated with signing an older player. Hopefully that 2nd year is a team option and not a mutual option, but like I said before, I'd be surprised if Bautista agreed to that.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 07:57 PM EST (#337767) #
Happ got better at age 34.

Bautista got better at age-29 when he made adjustments to his swing. Happ got better at age-34 when he made adjustments to his pitching motions. Has Bautista made further refinements to his swing? Has he made adjustments to how he plays RF?

Maybe you should just trust the front office on this one.

I really don't think you're in any position to offer that kind of advice, but thanks... I had a good laugh.
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uglyone - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 09:08 PM EST (#337768) #
You're right the projections are all biased.
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Parker - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 09:25 PM EST (#337769) #
You're right the projections are all biased.

You used Happ as an example. His projection was wrong. What point are you trying to make? That the front office knows what they're doing? You've spent two years telling us they don't. That Bautista is going to beat his projections in 2017? He didn't in 2016. Are you saying that the projections are biased in favour of the Blue Jays? Your projections always have been, anyway, at least until Anthopoulos left.
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dalimon5 - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 09:34 PM EST (#337770) #
His point is that the front office is more qualified than you. Pretty simple.
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scottt - Monday, January 16 2017 @ 09:48 PM EST (#337771) #
The turf toe thing is not really something predictable. Last year he started a bit slow, got hurt, came back got hurt again and didn't find his timing back right away. Assuming he avoid the lengthy DL stunts, he's capable of better results.

Nobody's right or wrong, it's probability. Shapiro plays the odds better than us. He has expect advise and medical files.

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Dr B - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 12:15 AM EST (#337772) #
I don't think Bautista is going to get better or healthier as he gets older. I don't know why anyone thinks he will.

Doesn't this kind of depend on what we mean by healthier? The probability of injury  will go up with age; I don't think anyone would disagree. However, one can easily make an argument that he's likely to be healthier in 2017 than in 2016, and I think that is as much as people are arguing. The probability that he will be injured in 2017 might be 25% (say). But the probability he was injured in 2016 is 100% since that's what happened.

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uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 12:22 AM EST (#337773) #
The projections aren't guarantees, just an estimate of reasonable performance. Bautista's deal is in fact a bargain, as is our FO's wont.

So just pipe down now and trust your beloved FO, parkie.
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Glevin - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:00 AM EST (#337774) #
Yes, older players always decline in the long term which is why you don't build around older players, but year to year, bounce backs are definitely possible. For example, look at Jose Bautista a few years ago. He went from 182 OPS+ to 138 to 132 with a lot of injuries. It looked like a steady decline. Instead, he bounced back and the trajectory of his decline changed. It happens all the time. Could Bautista, Martin, and Tulo bounce back this year? Absolutely. Are they declining in terms of overall value? Also absolutely. I'd love Jose back on a one year deal and would be OK with a two year deal. He is the best option available and it pleases the fan base at the same time.
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cybercavalier - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:34 AM EST (#337775) #
older players always decline in the long term which is why you don't build around older players, but year to year, bounce backs are definitely possible.

Shall we look at Raul Ibanez, Carlos Beltran or AJ Pierzynski ? Anyway, let us concentrate on the Jays...
About the batting lineup, would you guys bat Bautista at 5th due to high OBP and SLG but low AVG?

vs LHSP
2B Travis
SS Tulo
3B Donaldson
LF Pearce
DH Bautista
1B Morales/Smoak
C Martin
RF Upton
CF Pillar

vs RHSP
RF/CF? Carrera
SS Tulo
3B Donaldson
DH Morales
1B Bautista
LF Pearce
C Martin / CF Pillar, Pompey
2B Barney/ CF Pillar,Pompey / C (after Martin)
2B Goins/Barney
As we see, we need another LHB, preferrably at the backup catcher behind Martin, which on this site has been discussed during this offseason.
[ Reply to This ]
cybercavalier - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:38 AM EST (#337776) #
older players always decline in the long term which is why you don't build around older players, but year to year, bounce backs are definitely possible.

Shall that mean "finding annually diamond in the rough" and "throwing something onto the wall and see which sticks" are likely successful annually with veteran players? If so, was the Padres' signing Ryan Schimpf of 2016 an example? I guess so.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:27 AM EST (#337777) #
If this Bautista signing actually happens, then I hope the Jays do not enter the season with Carrera expected to start against RHP (Davidi and Morosi suggested that the Jays would not add another OF if they signed Bautista). I'd rather have Upton play everyday with Carrera as the 4th OF than have them platoon. Zeke cannot hit RHP, and isn't as good as Upton against LHP or defensively or as a base runner, so they'd be giving an inferior talent the majority of the AB's.

If there was ever a time for Pompey to pull an Aaron Sanchez in ST, now would be the time. Or if they are intent on playing Smoak against RHP, then put Pearce in LF against righties, and then against LHP go with Pearce at 1B and Upton in LF. Anything other than Carrera being an integral part of the team. He's a fine 4th OF, but he's not even the best 4th OF option on his own team right now.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:35 AM EST (#337778) #
His point is that the front office is more qualified than you. Pretty simple.

But MY point was that I wasn't disagreeing with the front office's decision to sign Bautista - he's looking increasingly more unlikely to garner the Jays a compensation pick, and he's willing to sign a short-term deal with the Jays. And like I said earlier, it's a fantastic PR move whether I like the guy as a baseball asset or not.

I guess my problem is I don't like being told to trust the front office by someone who craps on every move the FO makes.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:39 AM EST (#337779) #
Doesn't this kind of depend on what we mean by healthier? The probability of injury will go up with age; I don't think anyone would disagree. However, one can easily make an argument that he's likely to be healthier in 2017 than in 2016, and I think that is as much as people are arguing. The probability that he will be injured in 2017 might be 25% (say). But the probability he was injured in 2016 is 100% since that's what happened.

Yeah, that's fair. But given his age and the fact that he's missed significant time in three out of the last five seasons I'd bump the probability up a little higher than 25%.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:49 AM EST (#337780) #
I'd rather Carrera weren't on the team. He's OK as a 4th/5th OFer, but Gibbons likes him too much and will keep playing him. Can't hit is OK if you are a fantastic fielder and/or fantastic baserunner. Carrera is neither. It is the perfect place to put in Pompey. Enough Abs to prove himself and enough depth where the Jays aren't counting on too much from him.
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:31 AM EST (#337781) #
I wouldn't assume Jays wouldn't add someone else if the price was right, but I am worried (see Stoeten) re: the plan for Carrera.  I liked the Angel Pagan idea a lot, and Brandon Moss is still out there too.
[ Reply to This ]
ramone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:45 AM EST (#337782) #
I listened to Shi on MLB Radio Network last night, he said if the reports of Jose getting just above the qualifying offer are accurate, then that would leave them around $5 million left to spend. If he's right it looks like they'll be going with in house options for the other outfielder. If so I would prefer a Pompey/Upton platoon over a Zeke/Upton one.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:48 AM EST (#337783) #
"I guess my problem is I don't like being told to trust the front office by someone who craps on every move the FO makes.
"

so you're saying that a "shut up because management knows better than you" argument is an annoying and pointless response to your opinion, eh?

let me mull that. you might be on to something here.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:52 AM EST (#337784) #
This is why I like my bench spots filled with non guaranteed waivable guys....because even though carrera/upton might be the best option for the last 2 OF spots i sure wish a guy like pompey had a spot open to take without any asset-management issues blocking his way.

of course we could just ditch smoak.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:54 AM EST (#337785) #
I listened to Shi on MLB Radio Network last night, he said if the reports of Jose getting just above the qualifying offer are accurate, then that would leave them around $5 million left to spend. If he's right it looks like they'll be going with in house options for the other outfielder. If so I would prefer a Pompey/Upton platoon over a Zeke/Upton one.

Concur.

There still is no word that the deal has been finalized and confirmation of the terms.  For what it's worth, Steamer projects Bautista at 2.3 WAR next year and ZiPS at 3.1.  I'd probably take a figure in the middle but a little closer to Steamer's (Steamer has historically done better than ZiPS for batters-it's a different story for pitchers).
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:57 AM EST (#337786) #
Say what you want about Bautista's age. Forget about WAR for a second because yes his defense will be declining and his arm may never come back. Jays need a bat and he's the best on the market. I can't believe people are complaining about an overpay or that he's too old. Have you seen the alternati ves?????

Jose is still a guy who can crush a ball and get on base, better than 90% of the hitters we have. He's also in much better shape than many other guys his age and works hard to stay elite at the dish. Here's an article I dug up, I haven't reread it but I remember reading about how intense Bautista's training and fitness goals are, he uses the same goals and trainers as Tom Brady (39) and doesn't even eat stake.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/sports/bluejays/2016/03/31/jose-bautistas-personal-trainer-helps-slugger-defy-passage-of-time.html?client=ms-android-rogers-ca
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:59 AM EST (#337787) #
so you're saying that a "shut up because management knows better than you" argument is an annoying and pointless response to your opinion, eh?

No, I'm saying that you specifically do not get to make that argument based on your history of posting as if management DOESN'T know better than you.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:06 AM EST (#337788) #
Say what you want about Bautista's age. Forget about WAR for a second because yes his defense will be declining and his arm may never come back. Jays need a bat and he's the best on the market. I can't believe people are complaining about an overpay or that he's too old. Have you seen the alternati ves?????

No, you're right. He can still swing an above-average bat, and I don't think he's at all an overpay as long as the team has control over the second-year option. His age is a fact though, and despite his conditioning, players do decline and get hurt more often as they age. I like the Bautista signing; I just don't see him putting up elite numbers going forward, and I think his defence will hurt the team if he spends a lot of time in RF.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:09 AM EST (#337789) #
...and doesn't even eat stake.

Well, if he's a vampire, maybe he will age better than everyone else. ;)

(sorry, I couldn't resist)

That article was a good read, though. Thanks for the link.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:25 AM EST (#337790) #
heheh. after being so wrong about the quality of this team and its prospects it's a wonder you have the gall to even post anything about the team anymore, let alone expect anyone to listen.

and here i thought i was being nice by ignoring the silliness of your "one year older is the only thing that matters" argumemt. I'm not sure if you're aware but age effects are a big part of every projection system.

anyways, there's a very easy explanation for why they are signing Bautusta, despite it not seeming part of the plan all along....that's because the only plan the FO has is to bargain hunt.

As soon as Bautista's price came down under his projected value, making him a bargain, they pounced. That's the way they do business.

[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:53 AM EST (#337791) #
Ugly,

Here you go again. with claims that the front office only wants to "bargain hunt." They are looking for value deals and contracts whether those deals are the richest out there or cheapest. VALUE. They are not bargain hunting with a $160 million dollar payroll. The way you post, every team is a bargain hunter except for the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox.

You don't know if they're pouncing now because his price came down. It could be that the alternatives in trade are not happening, it could be that their biggest value is the draft pick and they won't be able to get a good one by letting him walk. They are waiting as long as possible to see what the best value proposition is. Similar to waiting for the pitch to come closer to the batter (standing deeper in the batters box) before swinging so that you can get a bit more time to read the ball.

Does this management have the quick hands to catch up to the ball? We will see, but bargain hunting would be like guessing on a fastball or trying for a walk, and that's not what this management is doing.
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:02 AM EST (#337792) #
Guys i literally come to battersbox specifically to avoid this kind of juvenille b.s.

Respectfully, take your squabble to the playground and get back to baseballin.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:05 AM EST (#337793) #
dalimon, it's not an insult. it is actually smart. I do think it's narrowminded, but it's better to be narrowminded in that direction than the other direction.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:09 AM EST (#337794) #
Love this news! I see it as good PR and a good baseball move, and think both are valid goals for the team right now.

I especially love this move if there is any truth to that trade rumour - that's a ton of prospect value for two 30 year old players coming off down seasons.
[ Reply to This ]
christaylor - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:18 AM EST (#337795) #
I don't want to see the threads to become political but I don't mind if someone wants to slip in a bold statement or use slight of hand to slip in a tiny witticism. I'm in the US myself and will even be in DC over next weekend. I like things light and baseball focused too but I don't feel like anyone ought to censor themselves -- politics and sport tend to go hand in hand in some weird symbiotic way, especially in baseball here in the States (see Jackie Robinson and Curt Flood).
[ Reply to This ]
christaylor - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:22 AM EST (#337796) #
Politics in the threads are OK -- but veiled sexism not so much.

On second thought, perhaps there is a baseball connection, Bautista is definitely the wicked witch of the AL east with all his chatter at the umps.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:43 AM EST (#337797) #
Guys i literally come to battersbox specifically to avoid this kind of juvenille b.s.

Gulp! You come here to avoid BS?

[ Reply to This ]
christaylor - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:44 AM EST (#337798) #
The phrase "bargain hunt" does have a negative connotation and like it or not, people are going to react to that. Seeking value just doesn't have that same sort of rummage sale sort of interpretation.

I'm curious -- would you have preferred a spendthrift deal for EE? Would have been happy if they'd gone 4/90? 4/100? Or pay Cespedes more than what he signed for? Or Reddick more than what he signed for? Fowler

The FA class was weak and the Jays needed to fill multiple slots and were not going to trade prospects. What other strategies would you have added to the Jays "narrow-minded bargain hunting"?
[ Reply to This ]
ayjackson - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:45 AM EST (#337799) #
juvenile bs

by all means, Chuck, continue your schtick
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:53 AM EST (#337800) #
I do not recall ever writing about politics and Battersbox, even when I was an admin here.  It's probably a good time to share my thoughts now.

Battersbox is not the ideal place to discuss areas of public policy of great importance- such as the public/private health care issue.  On the other hand, many issues find their way into sport in general and baseball in particular, with race, civil rights and discrimination being obvious examples.  MLB recognizes the issues and has taken steps to address them (these steps may or may not be sufficient).  It is quite likely that being a Latin-American in the United States will be harder for many after January 20, and this too can be expected to reverberate through baseball perhaps in small ways.

Insults about a politician/ballplayer/GM/agent/owner are best avoided.  Almost all of us have done it at one time or another, and hopefully others can see the insult just as anger being vented. Om!

[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:57 AM EST (#337801) #
At what point is it reasonable to begin to get concerned that this Bautista reunion might not be happening?
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 12:17 PM EST (#337802) #
‏@JonHeyman
Only hearing there's still work to do on Jays/Bautista. Unsure where it stands. also interested: rays, tribe #Mysterytalk

Sounds like the talk of it being a done deal were a bit premature.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 12:28 PM EST (#337803) #
honestly Chris I think "bargain hunt" has both good and bad connotations, which are well understood, and both of which apply here in my opinion.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 01:12 PM EST (#337804) #
They have basically agreed to a deal. They have agreed on term. They have agreed on how much. The rest is just fill-in stuff, but it takes forever.

When the Jays sign a LH/SW Left Fielder to platoon with Melvin Upton JR, who backs up Bautista? The Team isn't carrying five Outfielders and Justin Smoak must not play the OF.
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 01:13 PM EST (#337805) #
I'm actually more worried due to the passage of time rather than Heyman's reporting, which is all over the place, but still...

Alternatively, gotta think Stroman has enough inside information that it's gotta still be happening, but it would be nice to simply flip the pen and be done with it.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 01:17 PM EST (#337806) #
I don't see them signing another OF.

Pompey/Carrera/Upton is enough for the last spot.

The only thing I see left is maybe a backup C (though that just might end up being another AAAA guy or two) and a couple RP.
[ Reply to This ]
Dr B - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 01:22 PM EST (#337807) #
Well, if he's a vampire, maybe he will age better than everyone else. ;)

Hmmm...Just checking his performance in day games...

[ Reply to This ]
Dr B - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 01:33 PM EST (#337808) #
Politics and baseball do intersect sometimes. Once Trump builds his wall, how will Marco Estrada get up here?
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:12 PM EST (#337810) #
Please, uglyone. "Muslimy" doesn't describe anybody and is insulting.  Islam is a religion and its adherents do not have a particular look. 

Today incidentally is Muhammad Ali's birthday.  I did not know about his late-life human rights work against torture until today.  Fascinating man and a great boxer, certainly the best I ever saw. 

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:26 PM EST (#337811) #
ach it was a joke making fun of trump, not muslims.



anyways, your daily update:

BP Toronto
@BProToronto
SOURCE: #BlueJays and Jose Bautista in agreement on deal pending physical. Lots of incentives, a mutual option, and could go to 3 years.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:30 PM EST (#337812) #
The Jays will not sign another OF. They are looking for 2 relievers, one left, one right and a catcher with major league experience on a minor league deal than can be dispensed if they go with Jimenez which is likely. That insurance is needed. Still need some starting pitching depth at Buffalo in addition to what has already been done.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:38 PM EST (#337813) #
Guys:

If you constantly disagree with another poster it is probably not worth your time trying to get them to change their minds. Make your point in the abstract without attacking the other poster or their opinion.

As I said before please keep your discussions civil. If you can't then just refrain.

And remember this, most people don't speak up when there is questionable behaviour. If some posters are saying you crossed a line there are likely many, many more who choose not to speak up. There is a report abuse button on the site and it has been used more this off-season than any in the last five, at least. Let's give the button an off-season rest for the next month.
[ Reply to This ]
pubster - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:38 PM EST (#337814) #
Uglyone, are you an old white guy? Just curious.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:42 PM EST (#337815) #
Here's how a jays lineup with Bautista looks according to an average Steamer/Zips projection:

1.2B Travis (26): 105wrc+, 2.4war, 3.1war/650
2.3B Donaldson (31): 139wrc+, 6.6war, 6.5war/650
3.RF Bautista (36): 131wrc+, 2.7war, 3.4war/650
4.DH Morales (34): 114wrc+, 1.5war, 1.7war/650
5.SS Tulowitzki (32): 106wrc+, 3.2war, 4.0war/650
6.1B Pearce (34): 112wrc+, 1.4war, 2.3war/650
7.C Martin (34): 100wrc+, 3.0war, 3.8war/650
8.CF Pillar (28): 91wrc+, 2.9war, 3.2war/650
9.LF Carrera (30): 81wrc+, 0.3war, 0.4war/650

B.UT Smoak (30): 95wrc+, 0.3war, 0.4war/650
B.OF Upton (32): 79wrc+, 0.3war, 0.5war/650
B.IF Barney (31): 70wrc+, 0.6war, 1.3war/650
B.C Jimenez (27): 69wrc+, 0.5war, 1.8war/650

B.UT Tellez (22): 99wrc+, 0.4war, 0.9war/650
B.OF Pompey (24): 84wrc+, 1.0war, 1.3war/650
B.IF Gurriel (23): 102wrc+, 1.7war, 2.0war/650
B.C ----
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:58 PM EST (#337816) #
Looks like it's done now, with the official announcement happening later in the week.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #BlueJays, Bautista have deal: One year, mutual option, pending physical. Announcement expected later in week. @BProToronto first.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Per @JonHeyman, Bautista guarantee with #BlueJays will be above $17.2M he rejected in team’s qualifying offer.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 02:59 PM EST (#337817) #
Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
48s
Agreement with Bautista has options that could keep him in Toronto through 2019 per @JesseSanchezMLB #BlueJays
[ Reply to This ]
rpriske - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:14 PM EST (#337818) #
Since it is a mutual option it is still basically a one-year deal.

Good. Probably the best the Jays could do at this point.

Which is hardly a ringing endorsement.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:24 PM EST (#337819) #
If the payroll is going to be around $160M, then I think the Jays are done as far as significant moves. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the rest of the remaining funds are used for depth purposes (AAA rotation, minor league invites, etc).
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:24 PM EST (#337820) #
If you a Jays fan and you ain't happy right now...I don't really understand you.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:26 PM EST (#337821) #
Scott MacArthur @ScottyMacThinks
22s
Per TSN #MLB Insider Steve Phillips: Bautista gets $18M in 2017. Could get up to $60M over 3 years with options/incentives. #BlueJays
[ Reply to This ]
Vulg - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:26 PM EST (#337822) #
Today incidentally is Muhammad Ali's birthday. I did not know about his late-life human rights work against torture until today. Fascinating man and a great boxer, certainly the best I ever saw.

I visited his museum in Louisville this past summer as part of a longer road trip. I really only knew him as a boxer, but his message of tolerance and empathy is what resonated. I think the 'general public' underestimates the sacrifices he made in the proper context of the times, as well as the risks he took.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:37 PM EST (#337823) #
Vulg and Mike, with you on Ali. Many of his positive attributes were often overshadowed by the bigger than life, cartoon version of himself he presented to the world. And if you were put off by the braggadocio, as I was, you might not have tried very hard to dig beneath the surface.
[ Reply to This ]
pubster - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 03:55 PM EST (#337824) #
2017 Bautista + Morales + Pearce should be able to adequetely replace 2016 Bautista + EE + Saunders.

Liriano should be better than Dickey.

I think now this team is probably better than last years team.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 04:00 PM EST (#337825) #
The only message that matters now is how much is left. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have basically said, more than once, "We'll have enough money to fill our needs." Everyone else that talked about how much were just making assumptions (abet reasonable) about what they thought it would be.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 04:48 PM EST (#337826) #
Regarding the Jay's outfield for 2016. It was Pillar, Bautista and Saunders based on ABs. Carrera was the 4th OF again based on ABs of 270.I believe injuries helped him get that many ABs.
My understanding was that Pompey was to get everyday playing time. He stayed in Buffalo to get those ABs.

In 2015 he had a 481 ABs. 94 in Toronto. He must have been injured in 2016 only 339 ABs 2 in Toronto.

For 2017 the opportunity is there to claim a regular job.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 05:01 PM EST (#337827) #
Since the mutual options are unlikely to be used, it seems that the Jays have acquired Bautista for just $18-million (plus possible buy-out costs of a few million, which can be charged to future payroll years). That's quite a bargain. I'd actually venture to say that Bautista will be crucial to the team's fate this year.  If his health is good, he could have another monster year, which would allow the Jays to improve their offense, capitalize on their good pitching, and reach the playoffs again. (Even a repeat of his 2014 or 2015 seasons would be a hundred-point improvement in his OPS compared to last year, plus a lot more home runs since he'd be playing a full season.)  On the other hand, I have to admit that his health issues in 2016, and his age, could potentially foreshadow more problems in 2017.  He could miss significant time or see his offensive numbers declining again.  If that happens, it's hard to see the Jays preventing another decline in their offense this year, and the playoffs could be in jeopardy.  So a lot will depend on him.  And that's just the way he likes it.  He has risen to the challenges in the past -- he's got a good chance of doing so again this season.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 05:29 PM EST (#337828) #
Steamer 2017 projections:

.254/.349/.485 Encarnacion
.251/.371/.476 Bautista

ZIPS 2017 projections:

.264/.356/.528 Encarnacion
.252/.369/.499 Bautista

Encarnacion's WAR projection is higher only because he's being projected to provide acceptable D at 1B, whereas Bautista is being expected to be below average in RF.

Reports are that the As were willing to sign EE for 25m per (probably a 2 year deal). Bautista on a one year deal at a price tag near the qualifying offer is a fantastic signing.

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 06:01 PM EST (#337829) #
Based on the analysis today from the Jays beat reporters, it seems that the Jays have about $10-million remaining in their limited payroll.  That could be enough to bolster the bullpen (especially a LHP) and sign a back-up catcher -- and that's probably all, if the payroll parameter is as reported.

But I think Shapiro should persuade Rogers to boost the payroll sufficiently to enable the acquisition of another OF.  Of course it's possible that the Jays could cobble together an adequate LF from Upton, Pompey and Carrera, but let's be honest, that would be a gamble.  Maybe Pompey will impress everyone at spring training and resume the upward trajectory that we saw earlier in his career.  Maybe Upton will revert to his San Diego or Tampa numbers, rather than his Toronto or Atlanta numbers.  But those are optimistic thoughts, which we cannot rely on.  There's an equal chance that Upton will be as bad as he was in Toronto last season, and that Pompey's numbers in Toronto would be worse than his Buffalo numbers of last season.  So, instead of counting on those guys, it would be better to acquire another OF.

One outfielder who has been mentioned is Angel Pagan, a free agent.  He hits RHP better than LHP and would be an excellent platoon partner with Upton.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 06:26 PM EST (#337830) #
I really don't think there's 10M left. The lefty reliever is probably at least a 3 year deal, so it might require a bit of backloading.

On the 40 roster, there is Alford (still not close) plus Pompey, Ceciliani and Harold Ramirez.
Whoever is playing well at AAA is likely to get some AB in Toronto at some point.
Including maybe Gurriel if he's hitting.

I'm happy about Bautista and I think he hits after Morales.

Shapiro said that there was no point in signing a left handed hitter if he wasn't the best hitter.
He also had a lot of good things to say about Bautista.
He said the the pen was a fluid thing. I take that to mean they'll try several pitchers and keep those that work out.
He also said that he didn't see any negative to stretching Biagini at AAA.
So that leaves Loup, Sparkman, Floyd, and Bolsinger as favourites until they don't get the job done.


[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:16 PM EST (#337831) #
I think that Barnes and Tepera are the pen favourites followed by Bolsinger. It is one way to get younger unless Floyd really out pitches them. I am not a fan of Loup. I like Girodo more as long as he is used correctly. There will be a dog fight for jobs here with probably more added to the mix and possibly a ST surprise not being mentioned.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:27 PM EST (#337832) #
"....So that leaves Loup, Sparkman, Floyd, and Bolsinger as favourites until they don't get the job done....."

I could see a couple of those guys in the Jays bullpen this year, if they have good springs.   But keep in mind that Bolsinger wasn't one of the Jays ten best relievers last year.  He didn't even get promoted to the majors in September when rosters expanded.  So if we're including him in the top seven relievers in 2017, we're basically admitting that the bullpen is worse than it was last year.  And I'd prefer to avoid that.  He's a depth option.  (And he's out of options too, so he can't be stashed in Buffalo as a potential call-up.)
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:30 PM EST (#337833) #
Pitching is not where they'll try to get younger. Grilli will be 40. By younger, they mean faster and nobody cares how fast a pitcher can run.

Bolsinger is out of option. Might as well give him a chance before releasing him.
Floyd won't be hanging around at AAA, either he makes the team or he's released.
I'm not sure if Loup has options left. If not, he probably gets another kick at the can.

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:36 PM EST (#337834) #
I could see Bolsinger have a longer leash than last years results might warrant- he was really bad - but more from a resource-management perspective than merit.

Loup has two options left, according to the awesome bluebird banter option chart. 

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PeterG - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:37 PM EST (#337835) #
I agree with what you say about Bolsinger and Floyd but still regard Tepera (out of options) and Barnes as the favourites. Loup has options. With pen help becoming so expensive on open market, you have to develop your own so getting younger does apply here imo.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 07:46 PM EST (#337836) #
The major issues with Bautista are position and health. I think that he could easily play 140 games split evenly between LF and DH and hit very well. If he is pencilled in as the everyday RF, I am not as optimistic about his health and his performance.

The club could use him as a LF/DH and Morales as a a DH/1B and Pearce as a first baseman the rest of the time, and it would work. Alas, I doubt they will.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:20 PM EST (#337837) #
Spending money on a lefty reliever or a back-up catcher when you only have (apparently) $5-10M left to spend is a waste, IMO. I'd rather look at a position where adding the most wins is realistic, and right now that's clearly LF. The difference between Carrera vs RHP and someone like Moss vs RHP might be between 1-2 wins. A LOOGY and a back-up catcher are not going to add much regardless.

As far as the pen, I'm fine with going the cheap route. It might be hit or miss, but that's relievers in general. Depending on what they do with Biagini, I'm fine with some combination of Floyd, Bolsinger, Sparkman, Barnes, Loup, etc, making it.
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Chuck - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 08:20 PM EST (#337838) #
Cathal Kelly's take on the Bautista signing.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:06 PM EST (#337839) #
Kelly is more often wrong than not, in my experience. His articles about the Jays, which are almost invariably critical of the front office or Rogers, tend to provoke in a predictable way (Wente's op-ed pieces have a similar quality).
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greenfrog - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:26 PM EST (#337840) #
Between Bautista, Morales, Pearce, Gurriel Jr., and Sparkman, I think the Jays have had a pretty good off-season. Still lots of roster-building challenges ahead for 2017 and beyond, but the front office has made a number of interesting stopgap moves over the last year and a half.
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scottt - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:46 PM EST (#337841) #
That's a lot of vitriol aimed at the front office and at a player that has been the face of the franchise.

If EE really wanted to be in Toronto he would not have tried to scrape a few extra millions out of the team.
For better or for worse, Morales and Pearce wanted to come and play for Toronto.
Others were not interested. Can we stop pretending that the ownership is cheap and that those players are mediocre.

In other news, Stroman, Travis, Pillar and Estrada have been touring Canada, recently spending some time in Edmonton.
I think they're in Toronto now. 3 of these guys are under Blue Jays control for another 3 years or more.
Estrada is a free agent at the end of the year and wanted a longer contract with a lower AAV.
His last words last year were "This team! We should still be playing!"
Should Shapiro extend him before starting the year even though his back is a huge question mark?

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SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 09:56 PM EST (#337842) #
Other than the third year for Morales, I don't see anything wrong with this off-season either. They mitigated a ton of risk with Bautista on a one year deal (the mutual option will surely get declined by one or both sides), so if they felt the pick was a non-issue, then 1/18 is good value. They've probably gotten the team back to the 85 win projection range, which is about where I expected them to be by the end of the off-season. Still have time to bump it up if they can land an OF like Moss or Pagan (or if Pompey steals the LF job and takes off).
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PeterG - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:01 PM EST (#337843) #
I would wait a bit on Estrada to make sure the back is good. If it is, an extension would be ok. Liriano might be open to one as well if he really believes Martin is part of his success. If there is an extension, it will only be to one guy I would think unless the extensions are for one year only.

We will have some pitchers on the way. A couple of border line prospects that could surprise in the next year are Shane Dawson and Taylor Cole. I would like to see Cole tried in the pen.
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scottt - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:09 PM EST (#337844) #
It's an aging team for sure, but there's no young guys in the free agent markets and the younger ones, if they're any good, are very expensive and often have strong opinions about where they want to play.

For decades, the Jays were out of contention and sellers at the trade deadline and they never got younger out of that.
Even Donaldson was acquired by giving up younger guys. EE and Bautista were late bloomers who ended up here when they were out of options.

I'm satisfied they've done the best they could, sort of trading their top 3 prospects.

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scottt - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 10:27 PM EST (#337845) #
Liriano is a QO target if he has a good year. It's pretty low risk. Estrada would have been too, but the CBA took care of that.

I don't think they'll rush anymore pitching prospect. They have to watch their 40 roster pretty carefully.
Borucki was added for the rule V draft.  I think Will Browning and Tim Mayza were the best AA relievers and they'll probably be in Buffalo this year.

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Mylegacy - Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 11:04 PM EST (#337846) #
From the get go I expected we'd end up with one of EdWing or JoeyBats. Like most - I'd have preferred Da'ParrotMan.

However, a healthier BatFlip is a LOT MORE than chopped liver. He's a spectacular offensive force - on the downside some - BUT STILL a serious force. AND - we've got him SHORT TERM - even slightly better than him accepting the QO as we've got a wee bit of flexibility at year end that the QO didn't offer.

Personally, like Sherman on the Seahawks, his personality can grate - but like Sherman - he's great. And great beats out grate every day of the week.

Now if only Estrada's wonky back can hold together and the baseball gods of injuries can just go mess with Boston and or New York for a year we'll be dealing. Dunedin here we come!!!
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Glevin - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 03:37 AM EST (#337847) #
"Between Bautista, Morales, Pearce, Gurriel Jr., and Sparkman, I think the Jays have had a pretty good off-season. Still lots of roster-building challenges ahead for 2017 and beyond, but the front office has made a number of interesting stopgap moves over the last year and a half."

Agreed. They are doing what they should be doing which is trying to remain competitive while creating a pipeline of minor league talent. Fangraphs now has the Jays as 4th in the AL in projected wins. (No matter what the Jays did, they weren't going to catch the top-3). Now, there is still a good chance the Jays don't make the playoffs, there are a lot of good teams, but they have positioned themselves well.
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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:22 AM EST (#337848) #
FanGraphs weighs in on Bautista. Tangotiger tweets lots of colourful arrows.
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scottt - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:53 AM EST (#337849) #
Shapiro has been vocal about player options and opt-out deals.
Generally he's not wrong.
An Opt out is not so bad really because a team sees the greater benefits during the first years of a deal.
You wouldn't give an opt to a player that you're extending because you extend him to have him under team control.
A third year that kicks in based on incentives is purely for the player's benefit.
Looking at it in terms of homeruns, Bautista would have to hit less than 20 for the team to waive the second year.
I wonder where he goes back to free agency. 30 homeruns without the QO might open him some doors.
Then again he might have realized he's not that popular with the American fans.
It's easier to pretend it's just a one year deal.

Now is the bullpen worse than last year?
Sparkman replaces Biagini. Big shoes to fill.
Storen is not a big loss. 33 innings of ERA+ 70. Tepera or Barnes can do better than that.
Last year we got 31 innings out of Floyd and 40 out of Chavez. Maybe Floyd last longer. If the rotation holds, Biagini would be back in the pen mid-year.
Benoit only pitched 23 innings. They'll probably get somebody again this year.
Cecil had an up and down year, but only threw 36 innings. They need to replace him. It all hinges on that.
Will Grilli still have it? Will Osuna stay healthy?
No point to trade for a bullpen arm until the need arise.
For the first few months there's a number of arms with upside in Buffalo.

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jerjapan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 08:02 AM EST (#337850) #
Cecil pitched 36 innings, but in 54 games - his lack of IPs was on Gibbons more than on himself.  He was dreadful for a while, but with such a small sample size, I prefer to look at his recent body of work over the past few years- he would be the third or fourth best reliever in our shallow pen right now, possibly second.  The Cards bet big on him, and I know most of us hold that org in high regard.

I'm generally higher than most on unproven minor league relievers like Tepera and Barnes, but I still see the pen as a pretty massive hole.  I don't know if WAR is the right way to evaluate relievers these days really - WAR was likely a factor in our trading Hendricks for Chavez, and that deal proved to be the FO's worst of their tenure. 

I don't really consider Sparkman to be a significant add - Biagini may have clouded some people's idea of the value of a rule v pick.  Unless the new FO is onto something - a possibility for sure, I like how they target relievers - I view Sparkman the way I would a strong minor league FA signing, a market we haven't exploited as much as I would like this offseason.   I agree with Scottt that trades are the wrong way to address the pen, but I'd like some reclamation projects along with Floyd added to the mix.

As for the Kelly piece, I don't necessarily disagree with his take on the FO, hyperbole aside.  But he's brutal on Bautista, unfairly so IMO.  His injury-plagued season was as much bad luck as anything - his timing simply sucked.  He did have this interesting quote that I had missed at the time from Jose, a few months into his 5 year deal with the club, on his apparent bargain of a contract:  “Two or three years down the road, if I keep this production up, I’m guaranteeing you that that would get addressed at some point”.

I guess I'm in the minority when I say I don't want to spend on LF - Pompey is better than another platoon-type player.  With such a volatile pen, we are going to carry 7 or even sometimes 8 relievers and I don't think we can carry another part-time player - unless the plan is to cut one of Carrera or Upton.  If we cut Zeke, fine, but I think Upton can produce value for us.  Pearce could even be in the LF mix if Morales can play passable D at 1st - I agree with Mike Green that it would be great to get Bautista some real time at DH. 

My preference is a quality backup catcher - Jiminez is a long way removed from prospect status and is coming off another mediocre year in AAA.  Unless his D is better than I think, we need someone who can limit Martin's playing time without leaving a Thole shaped hole in the lineup.  People are worried about Marin's declining value - no better way to mitigate that to my mind than to manage his health the way we did with Sanchez last year. 

I sure hope you guys are right and I'm wrong on Morales! 
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ayjackson - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 08:12 AM EST (#337851) #
Law ranks our Farm 21st in MLB.
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 09:30 AM EST (#337852) #
Major league free agent catchers are few now. They are mostly RHBs and the Jays prefers LHB. Or JP Arencibia or Kottaras would be okay, which I think signing them may be improbable and quite discouraging. Any trade-able catcher from other teams?
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:04 AM EST (#337853) #
From someone on Twitter, quoting Blair's radio show:
"...Edward Rogers gave Mark Shapiro additional funds to sign Bautista - and still fill other needs...."

This may or may not be true.  But it still suggests something that a lot of fans don't always get:  payroll "limits" aren't necessarily unbreakable.  And yes, the Jays should be able to go to the owners and ask for additional payroll money when opportunities arise.  That's what Anthopoulos did (in 2013) and that's what Shapiro could be doing now.  There's nothing sacrosanct about a payroll parameter such as $160-million.  If circumstances arise, the executives should be able to go to ownership and ask for more money.

Now let's hope that the "other needs" could include LF, the bullpen and back-up catching.

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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:19 AM EST (#337854) #
(Just to clarify the sourcing in my last post.  I didn't mean that it was mentioned by some random person on Twitter.  It was Jeff Blair who apparently said, on his radio show this morning, that Rogers gave extra funds to Shapiro to ensure that he could sign Bautista and still have money for "other needs."  The summary was by someone on Twitter, but I have no reason to doubt that this is what Blair said today.)
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uglyone - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:25 AM EST (#337855) #
Glevin: "They are doing what they should be doing which is trying to remain competitive while creating a pipeline of minor league talent."

I still don't see how the free agent market has anything to do with the pipeline of minor league talent.
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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:25 AM EST (#337856) #
Now that they have Bautista in the fold I would feel significantly less pressure this offseason. Teams have been pretty gun-shy so far (like 1985-87 gun-shy) so I expect numerous bargains to be had.

My approach.

1. Identify a left handed reliever somehow. The fact that Aaron Loup is even being discussed as a roster option is simply terrifying.

For Jerry Blevins, Travis Wood or Boone Logan I'd be willing to pay $$ (although not Cecil $$). If you can't sign one of those three then get several depth arms in the system on minor league deals (see below) and hope that one sticks.

2. Tentatively plan for Pompey/Upton in left. Better yet, sell Bautista on LF and put them in right. Its a perfectly acceptable outfield with upside. Plus, OF is one of the easiest positions to fill in season.

3. That said, monitor the market for OFs. I consider Moss and Pagan to be the only upgrades left. I wouldn't let these guys go to someone else for 1/6, 2/12 etc...

4. Have Jiminez and McGuire as the plan at catcher for the time being.

Wieters is the only free agent left that has any appeal to me and he's not signing as a backup. A better option is to wait until April and look at who is DFA'd. Jiminez/McGuire give you flexibility to do this.

5. Find someone to take Smoak, even if we have to eat most of the $$ Hinske-style. If we are as close to the maximum budget as some suggest then every dollar counts.

1B could theoretically be manned by Pearce, Morales, Bautista, or Tellez. Maybe you have to take on an equivalently overpaid left handed reliever or outfielder in a swap of bad contracts but Smoak is just a truly poor allocation of resources at this point.

6. Police the Market of relievers and outfielders.

We are entering the season of minor league deals and I'd want to be first on a couple of guys with either a cheap major league contract or a large minors deal.

Reliever targets- Tommy Hunter, David Hernandez, Javier Lopez, Ross Detwiler, Scott Feldman, Jim Henderson, JP Howell, Papelbon (ugh, but still...), Fernando Salas, Joe Smith, Carlos Villanueva.

Outfielder targets- Coco Crisp, Dustin Ackley, Peter Bourjos, Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Chris Coghlan, Drew Stubbs

7. Win AL East (F' Boston...)
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pubster - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:28 AM EST (#337857) #
"I still don't see how the free agent market has anything to do with the pipeline of minor league talent."

They signed Lourdes Gurriel.
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uglyone - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:31 AM EST (#337858) #
"Law ranks our Farm 21st in MLB."

So just about the same as he ranked it in 2015 before all the trades (19th), when we had all of Sanchez hoffman norris osuna travis plus most all of our current top prospects in the system.
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uglyone - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:33 AM EST (#337859) #
China Fan - agreed that a hard payroll limit is silly and them boosting it based on circumstance is very good news.

In fact, with all sorts of cheap good options yet it would be sweet for them to just go all in and sign a trumbo or two to a similar short term deal.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:34 AM EST (#337860) #
There is little the Jays could have done on the FA market than further restrict themselves down the road with onerous contracts.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:39 AM EST (#337861) #
Yeah Law is mostly wrong on his predictions these days. Was it 2015 that Hutchison was supposed to break out and be a dark horse for top 10 pitcher in MLB? I remember Keith also said Lawrie was a terrible defender at 3B.

This is a guy who has had a target on the Jays for over 10 years. Wasn't he fired by Ricciardi??
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Parker - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:39 AM EST (#337862) #
Don't forget about Mike Ohlman. I think it's likely that he gets more innings at C for the Blue Jays this year than A.J. Jimenez.
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Mylegacy - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:43 AM EST (#337863) #
IF CF is right and Blair is right and Roger's said this:"...Edward Rogers gave Mark Shapiro additional funds to sign Bautista - and still fill other needs...."

The "...other needs..." most likely include some $ at the trade deadline for picking up pro-rated contracts for the final push - IF we're close. I suspect we will be.
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uglyone - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:46 AM EST (#337864) #
"further restrict themselves down the road with onerous contracts."

still don't see how that effects the minor league pipeline.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:48 AM EST (#337865) #
Shapiro did say in his interview last Friday that a good prospect would only be dealt to put the team over the WS hump (if perceived to have a legit chance) but not the WC hump.
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:12 AM EST (#337866) #
Anaheim is rumored to court Matt Wieters.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:28 AM EST (#337867) #
The deal is now final and official.  The Jays are paying $18-million to Bautista, plus a potential $500,000 buy-out.  There is a mutual option for 2018 and a vesting option for 2018, neither of which are likely to be used (although nothing is impossible).  So the Jays have committed a maximum of $18.5-million to Bautista.  Quite a bargain.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:30 AM EST (#337868) #
I meant to type, of course, that the vesting option is for 2019.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:32 AM EST (#337869) #
"....Win AL East...."

Yep.  That should be the goal, and why not?  I don't like these assumptions by some people that the best the Jays can hope for is the Wild Card.  Boston will be a good team, but nobody is unbeatable, and many teams end up doing a lot better or a lot worse than expected.

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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:36 AM EST (#337870) #
Although I missed it this morning, I have talked to someone who heard complete show (so far) and was told Blair said nothing about increased payroll. IF anyone else has knowledge of this one way or the other, clarification would be appreciated.

Parker, Ohlman is not a major league catcher in terms of defence, while Jimenez is. Just because Ohlman has a better BA.. it does not qualify him for major league time. He is strictly a AAA player at this point and at Buffalo to spell McGuire. He will likely DH more than he catches. If by chance, Jimenez does find his way back to the Bisons, Ohlman probably won;'t catch at all.
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:41 AM EST (#337871) #
I was listening to the Blair show this morning and I remember him mentioning that. I think he was just speculating that there might be more payroll if Shapiro asks for it.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:41 AM EST (#337872) #
"....was told Blair said nothing about increased payroll..."

It was tweeted, in real time, by someone who was listening to Blair.  A person whose tweets are reliable.   Do you really want to suggest that this was invented from thin air, just because a friend of yours didn't happen to hear it?
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:42 AM EST (#337873) #
If Law ranked our system 21st then it's true quality is probably in the 10-15 range.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:44 AM EST (#337874) #
"...I think he was just speculating that there might be more payroll..."

It was reported as a specific ask by Shapiro, and a specific approval by Rogers.  Not just speculation.  I admit that we don't know all the details or the full sourcing, but I think it's more than speculation.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:48 AM EST (#337875) #
CF, I am suggesting it might have been embellished which according to one of the above posts, it was apparently speculation more than fact.
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 11:56 AM EST (#337876) #
The audio archive should go up on the sportsnet site sometime later and then we can be sure.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:11 PM EST (#337877) #
Thanks, BJW, let's check the audio archive later for the exact wording of what Blair reported.  Although I suspect some people will remain skeptics if it contradicts their assumptions.

My own view is this:  it's fairly obvious that the payroll "limit" can be adjusted if the owners agree.  It happened in 2013 under Anthopoulos.  It's reported to have happened now.  So why would anyone assume that there's some fixed number that can't be touched?

The Jays are a big-market team, with fast-growing revenues over the past two years.  They have been lucky, in this off-season, to get some excellent bargains (a one-year deal for Bautista, and pretty reasonable deals for Pearce and Morales, aside from the third year of the Morales deal).  If they now need some extra money to get a LF (so that they're not dependent on optimistic feelings about Upton and Pompey), plus a catcher and a couple of good relievers to round out the bullpen, it's completely logical that Shapiro should be able to go to Rogers and ask for it.  His argument is a simple one:  the owners saw the huge financial benefits of creating excitement and making the playoffs.  The Jays have a good chance to do it again.  So why skimp on the money and jeopardize that scenario this year?

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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:14 PM EST (#337878) #
I'm pretty sure I have never seen a contract quite like this. A mutual option followed by a vesting year.

Scenario 1: Bautista returns to 5-WAR form and bolts in his pursuit of 30M per annum, now off a strong season and unencumbered by draft pick compensation.

Scenario 2: Bautista repeats 2016 or goes into the crapper and the organization cuts bait.

Scenario 3: Some middleground of performance is achieved (say 2.5 WAR) where Bautista neither feels he has the leverage to get more in the marketplace and where the organization feels they have no better options. Bautista can then show off how old guys age in this new Tom Brady world and force a vested return in 2019, at age 38.

Any bets on how this plays out? Scenario 3 seems the least likely, because it would mean both sides would have to be say yes. That said, if Bautista does deliver 2.5 WAR, which side says no to a return?

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SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:35 PM EST (#337879) #
The only scenario where I see the Jays picking up the mutual option is if Bautista has a great year, and in that case they'll know that he won't pick it up on his end, so it would be pointless. The options tacked on to this deal are probably just for appearances sake so it doesn't look like a straight up one year deal. I think the only way Bautista is back with the Jays in 2018 is on a new contract once he tests free agency again without the QO attached to see if he has better luck, and that's assuming the Jays even have interest in bringing him back a year from now when they clearly viewed him as an "if all else fails" option this year.
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92-93 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:40 PM EST (#337880) #
Take it FWIW, but Blair undoubtedly said that Rogers gave Shapiro extra money to get Bautista on top of what was necessary to fill perceived holes in the bullpen and at backup C. He made a point to talk about the fluidity of the payroll, that it isn't as rigid as it's been made out to be and that there's flexibility after the season opens to add more.

I like the idea of Travis Wood for rotation/bullpen depth, but I agree that the team should still be looking to add another bat first.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:41 PM EST (#337881) #
"....No point to trade for a bullpen arm until the need arise..."

It's true that the Jays can reinforce the bullpen with mid-season trades, but that doesn't mean they should consciously go into the season with a sub-par bullpen.   A loss in April counts the same as a loss in August.  They should open the season with as strong a bullpen as they can manage.  Then they can reinforce it later if necessary.  But opening the season with a bunch of marginal relievers or young unproven guys is a recipe for April losses, in my book.
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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:53 PM EST (#337882) #
"....this interesting quote that I had missed at the time from Jose (Bautista), a few months into his 5 year deal with the club, on his apparent bargain of a contract:  “Two or three years down the road, if I keep this production up, I’m guaranteeing you that that would get addressed at some point”....."

That's an interesting quote.  Didn't the Jays do something like this with Roy Halladay?  When he became an elite pitcher and it became very obvious that he was being underpaid, the Jays tore up Halladay's contract and gave him an extension that included a bump in salary in one or two of the years that were covered by his existing contract (if memory serves).  If they did it for Halladay, it's very possible that Bautista was hoping or assuming that they would do the same for him.  If they didn't do it for Bautista, or if they talked about it and couldn't reach a deal, it might explain why Bautista was determined to test the free-agent market.  His "ask" at the beginning of the 2016 season -- whether it was $150-million or something less -- was likely a reflection of his feeling that he'd been underpaid.  He couldn't get what he wanted, so he went to free agency -- and couldn't get what he wanted there, either.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's feeling a little bitter now.  I'm sure he will get zero sympathy from fans who argue that baseball players are overpaid anyway.  But it would be interesting to know if the Jays treated Halladay differently from Bautista, and whether Bautista did say -- four years ago -- that he expected the deal to be torn up and renegotiated.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 12:58 PM EST (#337883) #
I'm pretty sure I have never seen a contract quite like this. A mutual option followed by a vesting year.

Scenario 1: Bautista returns to 5-WAR form and bolts in his pursuit of 30M per annum, now off a strong season and unencumbered by draft pick compensation.

Scenario 2: Bautista repeats 2016 or goes into the crapper and the organization cuts bait.

Scenario 3: Some middleground of performance is achieved (say 2.5 WAR) where Bautista neither feels he has the leverage to get more in the marketplace and where the organization feels they have no better options. Bautista can then show off how old guys age in this new Tom Brady world and force a vested return in 2019, at age 38.

Any bets on how this plays out? Scenario 3 seems the least likely, because it would mean both sides would have to be say yes. That said, if Bautista does deliver 2.5 WAR, which side says no to a return?

I think that the middle ground of performance (2-3.5 WAR) is the most likely scenario.  What each party does with that will depend on: where Bautista falls within that range, what general market conditions are like, and how relevant alternatives for the Jays are developing and (in the case of older players) staying or not staying healthy.  The list of relevant players is long: Pompey, Alford, Ramirez, Morales, Tellez and Pearce.  For instance, if Pearce does not recover from his injury and Tellez is not ready and Morales proves that he can play first base competently, the club might be interested in Bautista as a DH for 2018/19.  Who knows?


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China fan - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:02 PM EST (#337884) #
Just to complete the discussion about what Blair said or didn't say, this is from the Sportsnet website today:

Sources have told Jeff Blair Show that Blue Jays ownership gave management additional cash to get the Jose Bautista deal done, while still leaving enough budget to address existing holes.

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SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:04 PM EST (#337885) #
@JonHeyman
Bautista:18M in '17. 17M mutual option in '18, 500K buyout. 20M vesting option in '19 w/300G in 17-18 and healthy

The fact that Bautista somehow playing 300 games at age 36-37 is more realistic than the mutual option being picked up by both sides should tell you the story.

This is a one year deal, and both sides know it.
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pubster - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:12 PM EST (#337886) #
"This is a one year deal, and both sides know it."

If both sides know this is a one year deal, why spend time negotiating years 2 and 3?
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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:21 PM EST (#337887) #
the club might be interested in Bautista as a DH for 2018/19. Who knows?

Is the complexity of the options (mutual + vesting) simply sleight of hand to distract us from the obvious fact that Bautista is effectively returning at the QO rate? And that both he and the organization are just settling on each either as plan B prom dates?

Or is this a Cathal Kelly level of cynicism?

[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:28 PM EST (#337888) #
"If both sides know this is a one year deal, why spend time negotiating years 2 and 3?"


I had the same question when looking at the details of the contract. Maybe for optics, so that neither side looked like they settled? I have no idea.
[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:30 PM EST (#337889) #

[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 01:33 PM EST (#337890) #

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rpriske - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:27 PM EST (#337891) #
The way I see it all the 2nd year of the deal means is that if the Jays decide he is worth keeping another year, they get him for $1m less.

The first year is functionally $18.5m

The second year is functionally $17.5m

So, if they decide to keep him, it will be at $1m less.

(Now, if HE decides to leave, that first year drops to $18m)

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:35 PM EST (#337892) #
I guess we'll have a better idea after next off-season whether it was in fact simply a one year deal made to look complicated.  I agree that for evaluation purposes, it's a one year deal, at $18.5 million. 
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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:36 PM EST (#337893) #
Arencibia just retired.
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:46 PM EST (#337894) #
Available major league free agent catchers are now few and mostly RHB; the Jays shall want a LHB backup. If so, Dioner Navarro reunion after JoeyBats'. Is Salty is available too? Or wait until near end of spring training to trading for a backup LHB catcher who would be DFA'ed or sent to Triple A. A trade ?
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Parker - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:50 PM EST (#337895) #
Arencibia was the catcher version of the million-dollar-arm-five-cent-head pitcher. He was blessed with the physical tools to be the next Mike Piazza, and it's a real shame he couldn't listen to coaches or batting instructors.

For what it's worth, he's leaving baseball with a great quote. It's an illustration that he still hasn't figured anything out, but he was always good for a quote.

Best of luck to Arencibia in his post-baseball career as the not-famous Perry's wife.
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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 02:56 PM EST (#337896) #
And now clauses in Bautista's contract related to attendance.
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Jevant - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 03:20 PM EST (#337897) #
Considering Gibby is talking about Jose possibly playing some 1B, I really hope they have at least considered dealing Smoak purely for salary relief and signing a Moss or Pagan to a similar contract Smoak has (or a little more).   That's assuming you can find someone to take the Smoak deal, I suppose.

Gibbons also sounds like he really likes Pearce, which is encouraging to me.

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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 03:32 PM EST (#337898) #
Navarro and Salty are too poor defensively for any serious consideration imo. Whomever it is, will likely be insurance more than anything else. Isn't Clevenger a left handed hitter, if by chance, that is desirable.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 03:35 PM EST (#337899) #
All Gibby said that was he was open to JBO playing some first if a need....in other words...injuries.
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Jevant - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 03:47 PM EST (#337900) #
Regardless, between Pearce, Morales & Bautista, Smoak's money is better spent on an OF at this point in my opinion.  Moss even plays both OF and 1B anyways.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 04:05 PM EST (#337901) #
I am willing to give Smoak another shot albeit with a short leash.

Gibby also said that the FO is aware that there is more to do. Stay tuned.

Which lefty relievers do we like and why: Logan, Blevins, Wood, Howell, Lopez?

I will go with Howell because he said he will sign a one year deal and we are developing our own guys. Of course, you can always trade (later) someone that is signed for 3 years. I am also intrigued by Wood but the cost may be prohibitive.

All these unsigned relievers are waiting for a reason, perhaps for teams like Jays and Mets to get around to them as the next priority?
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 04:14 PM EST (#337902) #
Clevenger is an LHB but given his probably comparable controversial expression related to President-elect Trump -- use google search engine on news to find out -- to what Yunel Escobar's in Toronto, would there be another LHB backup catcher option. At any rate, Baseball America listed him as minor league free agent, which means low cost high potential yield. There is usually the option of short leash on a minor league contract signee: release.
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cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 04:18 PM EST (#337903) #
[Arencibia] was blessed with the physical tools to be the next Mike Piazza, and it's a real shame he couldn't listen to coaches or batting instructors. It's an illustration that he still hasn't figured anything out.

Can Parker delineate more about those comments?
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dan gordon - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 04:55 PM EST (#337904) #
Bautista's contract also includes an attendance bonus of $150,000 per 100,000 starting at 3.5 million and going up to 4.0 million, so there is a possible (but unlikely) $900,000 extra each year. Without the bonus the contract averages $17.5M per year if it becomes a 2 year deal, and $18.33M per year if it becomes a 3 year deal. I expect the likelihood of the Blue Jays wanting to pick up the option year for 2018 will depend to some extent on how many games he plays in 2017 - if he somehow manages to play 155 games or so, the odds of the vesting 3rd year kicking in go up, and they'll be looking at a possible 2 year commitment for 2018/19.
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PeterG - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 05:51 PM EST (#337905) #
left handed hitting OF Anthony Gose now available for cheap....wouldn't claim him but if he clears and will sign minor league deal with ST invite...maybe. Doubt it happens though.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 05:58 PM EST (#337906) #
Alex Obal once guessed that Gose's future would be as a fireballing left-handed reliever.  It still might happen...
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:01 PM EST (#337907) #
Gose is younger, athletic, left handed.......ah forget it
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dan gordon - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:04 PM EST (#337908) #
Raines got in to the Hall. About time.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:06 PM EST (#337909) #
I haven't been to Cooperstown since the summer of 1989.  I will have to make another trip.

Congratulations, Rock.

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Cracka - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:07 PM EST (#337910) #
A great day for me personally as my all time favorite player Tim Raines is elected to the HOF along with Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriugez. Raines was on his final ballot and Jonah Keri has been championing his case for several years. It would be great to see him go as an "Expo" but I don't know if that will happen...
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Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:11 PM EST (#337911) #
Here is something I wrote on Tim Raines and the Hall of Fame 10 years ago.
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scottt - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:38 PM EST (#337912) #
I really hope they have at least considered dealing Smoak purely for salary relief.

Just pretend that someone at Rogers really likes Smoak and make extra money available just to have him on the roster.
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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:42 PM EST (#337913) #
It would be great to see him go as an "Expo" but I don't know if that will happen...

Can't see why it wouldn't happen. Half a career with the Expos and then another half with all the other teams combined.

I dropped many a shekel at the Big Owe in Montreal around the time Raines was starting his career. This was back when stolen bases were a thing and the high tech graphics of the day were crudely drawn, clucking chickens on the "big" screen -- a new one added every time the pitcher threw the ball to first to keep Raines close.

No shame in being only the second greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history. Cooperstown has room for that.

Lots of ex-Spos in the news. Lotta love for Vlady but not so much for Larry Walker, who arguably had the better career of the two. FG has the latter way out ahead. BBRef has them virtually tied. Perhaps an overly harsh penalty being assessed for Walker's time in Coors.

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scottt - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:42 PM EST (#337914) #
I don't think Shapiro cares about 1 lefty more than another.
They'll happily go with whoever takes the lowest offer.

The variable here is the Mets. They really need and want a lefty reliever but they don't have the money unless someone takes Bruce off their hands. Could be a while before those lefties start to budge on their demands.

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Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:43 PM EST (#337915) #
FG has the latter way out ahead. BBRef has them virtually tied.

Just correcting myself. Both FG and BBRef have Walker well ahead of Guerrero.

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scottt - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 06:47 PM EST (#337916) #
The Jays might have reopened Bautista's contract if they had the money, but, what I remember is that AA was against payroll parameters every winter and the team wasn't contending and the attendance wasn't rising.  Can you imagine Shapiro giving Bautista a raise when he was spending to keep the team in contention? The fans who wanted Price would have been screaming.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 07:05 PM EST (#337917) #
Yep, Walker's ahead of Guerrero because of the diversity of his skills.  As a rule, Hall of Fame voters have been more impressed with singular talents.  Scary power, extreme speed, the greatest glove.  Hence Jim Rice, Lou Brock and Bill Mazeroski get greater support than Larry Walker or Bobby Grich. 
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scottt - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 07:10 PM EST (#337918) #
A loss in April counts the same as a loss in August.  They should open the season with as strong a bullpen as they can manage.  Then they can reinforce it later if necessary.  But opening the season with a bunch of marginal relievers or young unproven guys is a recipe for April losses, in my book.

It's not the medium, low leverage relievers who rack up the losses in April.

Last's year April losses:
Cecil 5
Dickey 3
Estrada 2
Sanchez 1
Floyd 1
Storen 1
Biagini 1

Why was Biagini ptching with the game on the line in April last year?
Biagini came out in the 10th inning. He got Schoop on a ground out. Struck out Alvarez. Caleb Joseph hit a double. Rickard got to first on a weak dribbler past the pitcher. They walked Machado. Then Biagini lost his first game on a passed ball by Josh Thole.

I wanted to show that the last 2, 3 guys in the pen don't lose many games, but maybe I just showed why the backup catcher should be a defense first guy.



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uglyone - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 07:47 PM EST (#337919) #
some media making it sound like rogers forced this move on shapiro inc. to placate angry whinging fans.

so.... you're welcome.
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Parker - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 08:11 PM EST (#337920) #
Can Parker delineate more about those comments?

I can indeed.

When a batter possesses extraordinary natural power, pitchers are going to be afraid to throw pitches across the plate.

When pitchers throw junk nowhere near the plate because they're worried the batter is going to tee off against them, the batter who is receptive to instruction (or able to make natural adjustments) learns how to draw walks or force pitchers to eventually come after him by not constantly swinging at pitches two feet outside the strike zone. If, however, that slugger continues to swing at garbage pitches then pitchers will continue to throw garbage pitches, and that slugger will continue to swing and miss, or hit for weak contact, except on the odd occasion that the pitcher misses his spot and accidentally throws something down the middle.

A player with the natural power to scare pitchers away from the strike zone should draw a lot of walks if he doesn't constantly swing at pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Arencibia is either too dumb to figure that out for himself, or too stubborn to let someone teach it to him. From all reports, Arencibia is not dumb. That kind of narrows it down. My comment was meant to point out that based on his retirement quotes, Arencibia still doesn't understand that the ability to take a walk is something that a batter can learn, if he's willing to be taught.
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 08:46 PM EST (#337921) #
Players much better than Smoak are having trouble finding jobs right now. I don't think there is a team out there willing to take his salary. Maybe he can be traded for an equally unwanted player on another team, but still, who is going to want to start Smoak at 1B? Maybe a rebuilding team that just wants a body out there, but there will likely be cheaper replacement level options available. Just have to swallow the bad contract in all likelyhood, even if $4M per year for two years in the grand scheme of things isn't much.

I still like the idea of adding Moss. I'm not sure what the OF market is anymore, as Rasmus signed for $5M and Saunders somehow got $9M, so what someone like Moss (or Pagan) would cost is anyone's guess. I'd rather sign one of them than a reliever or back-up catcher. Loup's last two seasons do not inspire confidence, but his secondary numbers suggest he is better than his ERA suggests so it's probably worth giving him another chance (as long as Gibby uses him properly).
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pooks137 - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 09:54 PM EST (#337922) #

My comment was meant to point out that based on his retirement quotes, Arencibia still doesn't understand that the ability to take a walk is something that a batter can learn, if he's willing to be taught.

I think it's been pretty well established that plate discipline/pitch recognition/batting eye is probably an innate skill and not something that can be taught

It's frustrating to watch guys like JPA and Smoak flail away at pitches year-after-year despite their prodigious power, but it's probably more of a lack of skill rather than a flaw of character

Of course, players can probably make marginal gains in walk rates and quality of contact by working on their pitch selection over their careers, as evidenced as walk rates sometimes going up on the wrong end of the aging curve and batting eye considered to be an "old man" skill.

But most players with good discipline are probably just born with a better batting eye, like Bautista. Guys like Smoak and JPA just don't have the natural talent to recognize the spin on the ball out of the pitcher's hand in fractions of a second consistently enough no matter how many curves or sliders they see.

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Parker - Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 10:08 PM EST (#337923) #
That's fair, but it's still not an absolute thing. A guy who swings and misses against the best 12-6 curve that drops out of the zone doesn't deserve the same level of criticism as a guy who swings at pitches that bounce over the plate.
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Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 12:04 AM EST (#337924) #
Hit.Round.Ball.With.Round.Bat.Hit.It.Square.

Hitting is hard. Very hard. Those who ONLY FAIL 70% of the time are considered STARS and have Yellow Bentley's (if they so desire).

The problem is MOST hitters have at least one pitch they can't hit. Most teams coaches KNOW what those pitches they can't hit are. Thus - Hitting is hard. Very hard.

Just a blooper or two a week makes a 250 hitter a 300 hitter.

Guys like Bautista who have spectacular OBP's are - in my humble opinion - freakin' amazing. Not everyone is born with the "necessities" (as Tommy Lasorda might describe it) to be an above average hitter. Too much time is spent lamenting those poor souls who some think just need to eat Wheaties and listen to a former Mendoza Line hitting batting coach to become Yellow Bentley drivers.

IM(H)O.

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Glevin - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 03:52 AM EST (#337925) #
"Yep, Walker's ahead of Guerrero because of the diversity of his skills. As a rule, Hall of Fame voters have been more impressed with singular talents. Scary power, extreme speed, the greatest glove. Hence Jim Rice, Lou Brock and Bill Mazeroski get greater support than Larry Walker or Bobby Grich. "

It is some of that but there are other reasons as well.
1) The Colorado factor. Coors field then was completely insane. Everyone decent hit 30 HRs. Walker's best year, there were 3 players on the team with 40 HRs, 5 players with 25 HRs. Park factors take it into account but not perfectly. His lifetime road OPS was .865. He hit .381/.462/.710 at Coors. Walker was a great hitter in the best hitting park ever in the best hitting era ever. It hurt him.
2) Everything hurt him. Walker got hurt a lot. Vlad had 1, 000 more PAs than him at pretty much the same offensive rate. That's 2 extra seasons of elite production. That is an enormous difference.

I have Walker in my HOF, but I hate the reductionist WAR comparisons of players. WAR is a decent general guidelines to value but is nowhere near a perfect stat but too many people treat it as if it were.
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cybercavalier - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 06:17 AM EST (#337926) #

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cybercavalier - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 06:19 AM EST (#337927) #
Parker's comments on Arencibia have two utilities: the obvious and brief assessment on Arencibia and how Arencibia's adventure in his career under Parker's description help us fans assess future prospects' intangible ability and on ourselves.

2) Youngsters who knows they have raw abilities and does not listen to coaching are commonplace. I just realize from comments of a teacher and a senior student about a junior student in a school. Back to baseball, can Parker's assessment work on Anthony Gose who seemed to taking in less coaching in 2015season per Sportsnet or TSN. Erik Thames, the former Jays who recently signed with the Brewers after his2015 MVP season in South Korea, said in the news conference for his signing, "Obviously, during my career there have been coaches, organizations and GMs that have given me the cold shoulder," Thames said. "That fuels me but I also have to focus on what my goals are. I want to play every day, stay healthy and help this team win." His gesture was taken as, "He hit .348 with 124 home runs, 379 RBIs and 64 steals in 388 games in South Korea — and he will play next season with a definite attitude." per MetroNews.

So given the Arencibia's and Thames' career trajectories, I guess we can agree that Gose is not subborn or dumb but his 2015season shows he took less coaching in 2015. Therefore, I agree, "left handed hitting OF Anthony Gose now available for cheap....wouldn't claim him but if he clears and will sign minor league deal with ST invite...maybe. Doubt it happens though." Sign him to a minor league deal with ST invitation. At lease Buffalo shall have Ceciliani, Gose, Pompey's presences.

Be sure to see your comment in the comment box before you click "Submit Comment".
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jerjapan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 08:16 AM EST (#337928) #
As a rule, Hall of Fame voters have been more impressed with singular talents.  Scary power, extreme speed, the greatest glove.

Interesting comment Mike - I hadn't considered that before, but it certainly explains some of the questionable names in the hall.

I'm stoked Raines made it, he was a genuinely exciting player.  I loved the Expos back in the day (and I'm still angry that they lost their best chance at the WS due to the strike). 

Agreed that the era that saw Halladay's deal renegotiated was different than Bautista's, but I doubt that made it sting any less for a player who was wildly underpaid for years.  But he signed the contract, and it was risky for the team - I felt it was a fair deal for both given the circumstances of his breakout.  Is it fair to say that his late emergence was almost unprecedented?

Good points Pooks about batting eye being relatively innate.

As for dealing Smoak, we would have to pay some of his salary or take back another overpaid player to move him, but I do think he's movable. 
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Jevant - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 08:38 AM EST (#337929) #
I'd rather sign one of them than a reliever or back-up catcher.

Completely agreed.  You can fix the bullpen mid-season, and I don't see the difference between any of the remaining C options.  Spend the money on a player that can play LF against every single RHP.
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Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:31 AM EST (#337930) #
Glevin, here is another way to look at it.  The last two years of Guerrero's career, he had 1200 PAs and put up decent slash lines but he had essentially no value because he grounded into many double plays and was very, very slow.  Walker was a valuable player every single year of his career. 

In Walker's best year (1997), he hit .346/.443/.773 on the road.  And his road parks were generally very tough places to hit.  He basically had a Mike Trout season- he went 33-8 stealing bases, played great defence in right field and was fabulous with the bat.  It's funny because his MVP competition that year was Piazza and they are players of quite similar value with oddly different skill sets.  Piazza played the more difficult position but was less defensively talented. Piazza was a little better with the bat and a lot less valuable on the bases.  Piazza played his best seasons in a poor offensive environment and Walker in a very good one. 

I'll grant that it is hard to suss all of this out.  The one virtue of WAR over a career is that all of the factors are taken into account in a methodical way.  There certainly are problems with bWAR and fWAR, and I am not suggesting that one can simply look at those numbers and leave it at that. 

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China fan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:43 AM EST (#337931) #
Jays LF options, splits against RHP, expressed in OPS:

Upton:  .634  (in 2016 full season)
Pompey: .698  (in MLB career)
Carrera:  .649  (in MLB career)

So unless there is substantial improvement from Pompey or Upton in 2017, the Jays would have a weak-hitting LF whenever they face a RHP.  That's why some of us are supporting the idea of acquiring a LF on the free-agent or trade market.  Pagan or Moss have much better numbers against RHP than any of the in-house options.



 


[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:45 AM EST (#337932) #
Game for today- which Fangraphs depth chart projection is the most bizarre?

My vote:  Steve Pearce will add more defensive value at second base than Ryan Goins, absolutely and on a rate basis.
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Parker - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:54 AM EST (#337933) #
I gotta say, it's good to see Rock and Bagpipes finally inducted.

Stupid baseball writers.

Raines wasn't much of anything, other than being the second-greatest leadoff hitter of all time.

Bagwell? Nothing but a pedestrian career 149 OPS+... hitting for gap power, homerun power, high contact, plate discipline... hell, he even stole 202 bases in his career. According to Jay Jaffe's JAWS, he's the 6th-best 1B of all time. OF ALL TIME.

The five guys ahead of him? A bunch of nobodies - who ever heard of Gehrig, Pujols, Foxx, Anson, or Roger Connor? Pfft.

I-Rod... of course he's worthy, but is he worthy of being second only to Johnny Bench as a first-ballot catcher inductee?
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Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 10:08 AM EST (#337934) #
Pompey's numbers against RHP (.218/.282/.416) are compiled in 110 career major league PAs and are a bit unusual for him.  He has displayed more power and a lower BABIP than you would anticipate from his skill set and minor league numbers.  The fangraphs depth chart offensive projection for him (.260/.326/.379) is pretty reasonable.  He adds significant offensive value with passable on-base skills and good baserunning.  He should be, at minimum, a good defender.  And he's 24 and the other options are well over 30.  I'll grant that Pagan and Moss might be a little better overall, with better bats perhaps more than offsetting weaker skills in other departments. For what it's worth, both ZiPS and Steamer don't think so- they anticipate that Pagan and Moss will decline enough with the bat that they are of less value than Pompey overall. 

Nonetheless, I wouldn't greatly oppose acquiring another outfielder like Pagan and Moss because I do not believe Jose Bautista is likely to play 120 games in the outfield.  Moss might be ideal because you can get him PAs in the outfield and PAs at first base.  You'd have to cut bait on Smoak though... 
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PeterG - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 10:27 AM EST (#337935) #
I think we need a contact hitter with a bit of speed more than an all or nothing guy with high K rate. So, if another OF was to be added, I would favour Pagan. Not sure that it will happen though but it is possible some guys could become quite inexpensive by February.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 10:49 AM EST (#337936) #
On September 1st, Moss had a 134 wRC+ in 363 plate appearances. He then proceeded to have an absolutely dreadful September/October (101 PA, -1 wRC+, .107 BABIP). I'm not sure if it was injury related or not, but a .107 BABIP is terrible luck. I think in a strict platoon where he primarily plays the OF, he'd be a 1-2 win player. Given his hard hit rate and extreme FB skills, he seems like a good fit for the Jays, too. I'm not as concerned about the type of player he is (high K's, low BA) mainly because the Jays need an upgrade regardless of the skill set. The Indians made the World Series with a 1B who struck out 200 times. Value is more important to me, and Moss is a lot better than Carrera.

It depends on how the OF market shakes out, though. Are the remaining OF's going to get Rasmus money or Saunders money? I could see the Orioles signing Moss as they might have more money to spend than the Jays do. Pagan might be more realistic, though I tend to agree that Pompey might be the better player in 2017 given his (Pagan's) age and skills.
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China fan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 10:51 AM EST (#337937) #
"....He adds significant offensive value...."

I'm all in favor of Pompey's defence and base-running skills, but frankly the Jays are already carrying Pillar for those things.  If you take Pompey's numbers from the AAA level over the last two seasons, and do a normal regression that you would apply to any 24-year-old who is trying to transition from AAA to the majors, I just don't see how Pompey would add significant offense at the major-league level.  You'd have to subtract 40 or 50 points from Pompey's OPS when he moves from Buffalo to the majors, if a normal trajectory is applied, and his OPS is already not very high. 

Pagan and Moss have consistently hit better at the major-league level than Pompey has hit at the AAA level in the past two seasons.  I don't see how anyone except a huge optimist can expect Pompey to hit as well as either of those guys in the majors in 2017.

Equally important, I don't think the Jays share your optimism about Pompey's offensive abilities.  If the Jays had had Pagan or Moss on their roster last September, I can guarantee that they wouldn't have been glued to the bench, as Pompey was.  I've also seen comments from Shi Davidi in this off-season in which he predicted that Pompey would open the season at Buffalo in 2017.  He would be getting that prediction from the Jays. 

In any event, I'm going to drop out of the Pompey debate at this point, because I'm fairly confident that uglyone will have a few things to say and I don't want to belabor the debate.  Predictions are ultimately unknowable.  If someone wants to believe that Pompey will be a good hitter in the majors in 2017, there's really nothing that I can say that would dissuade that person.  And maybe he will.  That would be fantastic for the Jays.
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whiterasta80 - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:00 AM EST (#337938) #
I think that the voters got it right this year. 3 Worthy candidates, although not necessarily "inner circle" guys.

A few other thoughts.

1. Walker deserved more consideration but he is still on the ballot and gaining momentum. I'm sure he lost some votes to the Tim Raines train.

2. Its absolutely criminal that Yogi Berra, Carlton Fisk and Mike Piazza weren't first ballot HoFers, but we shouldn't punish Pudge 2.0 for that.

3. I'll never support proven PED users entering the HoF
so I hope that this is as high as Clemens, Bonds, and Ramirez climb. You put any of those 3 into the hall and I guarentee that within 10 years we are dealing with cheating crisis of some sort.

4. I need to go back to Cooperstown. Its been far too long.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:13 AM EST (#337939) #
Based on the Twitter recap of Atkins talking to the media today, it appears adding to LF is possible but not likely. Still time to see how the market shakes out, but it would be disappointing if the Jays spend millions on a back-up catcher and/or LOOGY while Carrera is starting against RHP in left.

FWIW, Pompey and Ceciliani were mentioned as LF options in addition to Zeke, Upton, and Pearce.
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uglyone - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:15 AM EST (#337940) #
the thing is moss and pagan stink.
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Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:16 AM EST (#337941) #
CF, it is true that Gibbons preferred to give PAs to Carrera against RHPs than to Pompey in 2016.  He also was happy to give many PAs to Colabello in left-field in 2015.    I think that is a pretty good indication that Gibbons did not find Pompey to be ready, and there might indeed have been maturity issues.  Gibbons, to his credit, has been known to change his mind about these things as a player gets older. 
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China fan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:18 AM EST (#337942) #
Atkins just spoke on the radio and answered a lot of questions -- some of them evasively, some of them with hints that could be significant.  Based on the Twitter summaries of what he said, a few things jumped out at me:
 
*  He said Bautista will play the "bulk" of his games in RF but is willing to play "multiple positions."  So we might see him at 1B at some point.

*  He confirmed that Bautista walked away from more lucrative offers from other teams. "I don’t know how much money he walked away from, but I would guess that he did. His desire to be here was abundantly clear."

* He would not directly address the question of whether Rogers provided additional money for the Bautista signing, but he hinted that they did.  He said Edward Rogers was "more and more involved" in the team, which is being interpreted as indirect support for Blair's report that the owners are providing more money.  He also said this;  "Thanks to Rogers Communications and thanks to Edward Rogers and his involvement, we don't have to plan for a rebuild."  So they have enough money to retool the team without needing to dump the expensive players.

* Asked about the options in LF, he listed the following:  Upton, Carrera, Pearce, Pompey and Ceciliani. 

* Asked about future acquisitions in the off-season, here's a summary of his answer:  "Atkins says bullpen, backup C are clearest Blue Jays needs, but: "There may be a trade or free agent that still fits on the offensive side."  He also said:  "If there's a way to improve at the other OF position, we're open to it."   So there's still a chance of the Jays acquiring another LF.
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PeterG - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:23 AM EST (#337943) #
Good summary CF. I would like to add that when addressing pen and C, he also said that we have our own options with which we are comfortable as well. He is looking for best ways to improve team whatever they may turn out to be.
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China fan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:34 AM EST (#337944) #
Atkins also reportedly said that Bautista was "extremely open-minded" about playing 1B -- an even stronger quote than the one that I cited earlier.   That's good news, and it could mean that the Jays are willing to have Pearce playing a substantial number of games in the OF, which might help to solve the LF issue.  But it also suggests the value of acquiring another OF.  (If you don't like Pagan or Moss, as uglyone has expressed, then find another OF, but there's surely got to be someone who can hit RHP better than Upton or Carrera.)  Moreover, I'm personally a little nervous about having Pearce in the OF, since there's some suggestion that his play in the OF has been a factor in his injuries.  So even if Pearce plays some OF in 2017, it probably shouldn't be a lot of games.  Finally, on all of these OF options:  spring training could settle some questions too.  If Upton or Pompey has a great spring and looks strong at the plate and defensively, that could settle some of the LF uncertainty.  I'd still prefer them to look for another OF to add to the mix, and Atkins seems to have confirmed that the Jays are considering it.
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uglyone - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:36 AM EST (#337945) #
yeah i expect a Bautista/pearce 1b/of 50/50 split.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:44 AM EST (#337946) #
I think Gibbons will likely rotate Bautista, Pearce, and Morales around DH, 1B, and the OF depending on how he feels (with Morales strictly as a DH/1B). The Jays have a bunch of older position players so they'll have to get creative with how they rest guys. I think there will be games where Morales plays 1B, Bautista and Pearce are in the OF, and someone like Donaldson or Tulo is at DH for rest purposes.
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PeterG - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:44 AM EST (#337947) #
Atkins did say Ugly that Bautista would play the bulk of his game in rf and that they saw him working out and are comfortable with that.
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jerjapan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 12:17 PM EST (#337948) #
Question for those advocating for another add to the OF - who gets cut? We currently have 4 OFs and 7 IFs who seem locks for the team, and no chance of a six man bullpen.

I don't think it's an issue to cut Zeke.
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John Northey - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 12:54 PM EST (#337949) #
At the moment I'd say the 13 man offense is set (assume 7 man pen).
CA: Martin / A.J. Jimenez
1B: Smoak / Pearce
2B: Travis
3B: Donaldson
SS: Tulowitzki
LF: Upton / Carrera
CF: Pillar
RF: Bautista
DH: Morales
UT: Barney

Carrera could lose out to Pompey, Jimenez to any backup catchers the Jays bring in this spring, Ceciliani I didn't see as a serious in the mix guy but who knows? Harold Ramirez could be in the OF mix too. Lourdes Gurriel will try to earn notice in spring and might sneak on in September but I don't see him any earlier than that, and the same for Anthony Alford. Ryan Goins is the #1 backup in AAA waiting for a shot, Richard Urena is the last guy on the 40 man and could be a surprise callup if/when someone gets hurt.
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China fan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 02:32 PM EST (#337950) #
".... Ryan Goins is the #1 backup in AAA waiting for a shot...."

Goins is out of options, and he won't pass through waivers.  Carrera is in the same boat.  I wouldn't be surprised if both are traded before the end of spring training (assuming that Barney and Upton don't get injured in the spring).  They won't get a lot in return, but it's better than giving them up for nothing. 
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jerjapan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 03:12 PM EST (#337951) #
I don't see Goins passing through waivers either, but they can Reed Johnson Carrera, no? Cut him for 1 sixth of his contract or something, since he was arb-eligible? I don't think he has trade value, but Goins has a little.
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PeterG - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 03:31 PM EST (#337952) #
Don't see Urena being called up unless real emergency even though he is on 40. A super utility guy to watch in Buffalo is Jon Berti. This FO clearly likes him better than the previous one as they let Burns go to Japan which likely would not have happened if they could have promised him 1st call up. Berti was one of the players in TO last week which leads me to believe that they see him with big club at some point in time. He can be added to 40 if necessary.
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uglyone - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 03:49 PM EST (#337953) #
goins will pass through.
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Glevin - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 04:14 PM EST (#337954) #
Probably 90% chance Goins goes through waivers. Lots of players like that around. Certainly can't see a team giving up more than player to be named later sort of thing. In order to get talent, you have to trade talent.
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uglyone - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 05:01 PM EST (#337955) #
goins will pass through.
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jerjapan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 06:24 PM EST (#337956) #
Your take on Goins depends on your view of his 2015 - if that was a fluke season, sure, he's replacement level - but I think he could post 1.5 fWAR again in similar circumstances.  I love his glove and versatility.  I'd put the odds of him passing through waivers at closer to 50-50. 

Stoeten's got a nice take on Bautista's unusual deal.

http://bluejaysnation.com/2017/1/18/bautista-s-contract-details-emerge-and-past-year-one-it-gets-rather-interesting

He makes a reasonable case that the third year vesting option might actually make sense, adding a clear perspective to how the 2nd year mutual option could work for both parties. 

Happy to hear that Ed Rogers may be willing to adjust the payroll and how close his relationship is with Shapiro - a corporate owner interested in a winning team as well as profitability will certainly diminish my skepticism around ownership. 

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scottt - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 07:25 PM EST (#337957) #
Goins is going to be 29. Berti 27.

The Jays gave up Jack Murphy to acquire Barney. Goins could produce a similar return, if anyone was desperate for a defense first infielder. That's a big if.

I just noticed that the Jays picked up Alex Monsalve in December. A hitting catcher prospect in Cleveland who didn't quite make it.

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scottt - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 07:30 PM EST (#337958) #
The point of Bautista's third year is that he'd be turning away 40M by not picking the option.
At that point, I don't know if the fans would be screaming for the Jays to offer him more.

First, 2017 needs to play out.

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cybercavalier - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 07:51 PM EST (#337959) #
About the backup catcher situation. I try to be creative, innovative but fantasing too:
1) Dump Smoak's salary
2) We have a surplus of OF but none great.
3) We need an LHB OF.
4) we need a backup catcher, preferrably LHB.

Solution 0: a Goins Gose situation: flipping Goins for Gose get Gose to play in Buffalo
Solution 1: The A's Stephen Vogt plays catch and LF. Is there any similar catcher hiding in Triple-A or independent league? From BbRef leader board, a Cody Coffman hit 1.307 OPS in an independent league. His wOBA was about 0.725 at age 26 in 2016. Do someone take a chance of this kind of LHB firstbaseman/catcher from the unknown?

or Solution 2: Flip one of our OF to Detroit again for Victor Martinez. I know it will be a salary dump transaction but can the Tigers pay part of the salary for 2017 and 2018? Then Martin #1, Martinez #2 and Jimenez #3 in Toronto for catching. Goins + Upton + Smoak = Gose + Martinez + some cash as salary dump. Martinez is likely going to frequently land on the DL but we need a backup catching contribution anyway. Can catching and diminished offense due to player loss and age in JoeyBats, EE be adequately made up in combination in Martinez? In Detroit, Upton brothers and another LHB CF take care of LF and CF. In Toronto, Zeke, Pillar and Pearce take care of LF and CF. JoeyBats, Martinez and Morales take time as DH. A LF Pearce CF Pillar RF Zeke, DH Morales, 1B JoeyBats, C Martinez
Against RHSP
RF Zeke
LF Pearce
3B Donaldson
DH Morales
1B JoeyBats
SS Tulo
C Martinez/Jimenez
CF Pompey/Gose
2B Travis
A very potent batting from #2 to #7. Meanwhile, Gose and Jimenez can take all their time to beat competitions in improving batting performance.
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:26 PM EST (#337960) #
If you are happy with Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales and possibly Jose Bautista covering 1B and letting John Gibbons handle the details, ignore what comes next. Steve Pearce hits RHP well enough he can play full-time if needed. He has some speed buts he's not a the big running threat we need. He defends 1B and LF very well and is defensively responsible at RF, 2B and 3B if necessary. Justin Smoak is a very good defender at 1B, but slightly range-limited. He does not play any other position. If he hits RHP as a LHB (best option) then he's worth keeping. Kendrys Morales doesn't run any more but does give decent defense at 1B when needed. His average, OBP and SLG are why he's signed. That's good enough for me. Jose Bautista is a Big Bat with exceptional offence. He's a decent runner, but no speed. He doesn't play 1B unless there's no other option. That's scary. All-in-all this should work well.
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ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:29 PM EST (#337961) #
A quick note on the structure of the contract. While the 'common wisdom', which is often more common than wise, is that mutual options are made to be declined, I think this one is pretty creative and more than just a one-year take it or leave it. Bautista will know now that the free agent market is not necessarily 'Merry Christmas'. And this may be the same next year, even without a QO attached, when he's a year older. If he has a good season, he'll think twice about walking away from two years that he can guarantee with good performance.

And from the club's pov, they can cut the cord after this year, or after the second year should they exercise the option and he fails to meet the vesting targets.

At the very least, before either party declines the option the deal provides a structure that can be massaged one way or the other.

I count this deal as the same sort as the Pirate trade, when they got Liriano and prospects for Hutchison. Both deals are of the sort that show some creativity we've not necessarily seen from the org in the past, including perhaps under Gillick.
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jerjapan - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 09:55 PM EST (#337963) #
No offense to Jack Murphy, but Barney was free ... my point is that Goins isn't. We'll see soon enough. 

Monsalve is one of the reasons I'm not impressed by our ability to sign decent AAAA options. 

Berti is less likely to me than Jason Leblebijian.  Anyone have a take on Berti's D?  I don't see him as viable at SS, although he does have appealing SB numbers.   Leb is a quality SS and versatile utility guy from my understanding ...
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James W - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 10:26 PM EST (#337965) #
Steve Pearce played 84 innings in the outfield last year and managed to give back 2 runs (his DRS was -2). He does not defend LF very well, or even average. 1B, his defense is a little above average.
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:37 PM EST (#337966) #
I cannot see the Jays going into the Season without acquiring another LHB. Game 5 of the ALCS verse Cleveland is too fresh in my mind, so I don't think it's forgotten. The only viable opening for that addition is LF. Melvin Upton JR has speed and defends LF and CF very well. He hits LHP much better than RHP, has power and costs almost nothing. Ezequiel Carrera (LHB) has speed and defends well, RF best. He has reverse splits and doesn't hit RHP well enough to fill the position. He doesn't have a roster spot otherwise. Dalton Pompey (SW) must prove he can play here, this is his last chance. He has good speed and is a natural CF who also defends LF and RF well. He has shown he can hit here, but can he still? This isn't the best time to be trying to find out. This is where an acquisition could be necessary.
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 19 2017 @ 11:45 PM EST (#337967) #
Steve Pearce played 84 innings in the outfield last year and managed to give back 2 runs (his DRS was -2). He does not defend LF very well, or even average. 1B, his defense is a little above average.

In your opinion.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pearcst01.shtml
A .995 career Fielding % at LF and a .994 Fielding % at 1B disagree. I'll trust Ross Atkins and the Jays opinion just a bit more.
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dan gordon - Friday, January 20 2017 @ 12:19 AM EST (#337969) #
Fielding % is a very poor indicator of how good a player is defensively because it doesn't factor in a player's range, which is vastly more important than fielding %. Even more so for an outfielder, as errors are rare in the OF, so most OF's have very high fielding %'s. Also, looking at career fielding numbers ignores the extremely important fact that players lose a lot of range as they age, thus decreasing their defensive ability. Earlier in his career, Pearce had a few decent seasons for range factor in the OF, in small sample sizes, but in the last 2 seasons he has been terrible in the OF. His range appears to be gone. I'd like to see him take over as the everyday 1B, unless Smoak has some kind of unlikely breakthrough.
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Richard S.S. - Friday, January 20 2017 @ 12:29 AM EST (#337970) #
Jon Berti has a Stats Page you can use to support your data. Just 43.0 innings as SS (1.000 Field %) over 3919.1 is much too small a sample to justify an opinion one way or another. We don't know enough.

Prospects are:
1) Valuable as organisation soldier.
2) Valuable as emergency call-ups.
3) Valuable as ready/future ready MLB pieces.
4) Valuable as trade assets.

It's possible Berti's value is being determined this year. He's at an age where decisions need to be made. He's taking a place someone better might need.
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observer2010 - Friday, January 20 2017 @ 01:18 AM EST (#337971) #
Bautista coming back is a good story, and hopefully he still has some of his old magic left.

The team is arguably paying him and honouring him for his many past accomplishments for the team, not so much on the basis of last year's performance.

What is essentially a one year guaranteed deal seems reasonable, under the circumstances, for both parties.


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Glevin - Friday, January 20 2017 @ 01:32 AM EST (#337972) #
"The Jays gave up Jack Murphy to acquire Barney. Goins could produce a similar return, if anyone was desperate for a defense first infielder. That's a big if. "

Exactly. Barney is better than Goins and the return was a 27 yo catcher who couldn't hit in AA and was playing in Australia. Even if you could find a trade for Goins, you would get something completely uninteresting back. Goins is one of the worst few hitters in all of baseball. Plenty of abs, in his prime and he has a career wrc of 60. You can only stay in the majors like that if you're Rey Ordonez and even then, you won't have a long career.
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jerjapan - Friday, January 20 2017 @ 08:03 AM EST (#337977) #
Barney was dealt to LA for a PTBNL and spent his 2015 almost entirely in AAA or on the DL.  DFAed in June, nobody claimed him.   He was free.  Goins might be ... but Barney was ...

I agree, Goins is a lousy hitter and I do think 2015 was the outlier.  But  his1.5 fWAR that year is nothing to sneeze at for a utility IF.

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