Thank You Gerry. Merry Christmas.

I hope Shapiro and Atkins asked for enough money to do everything needed.

Merry Christmas to everyone here on the Box!  It's a daily source of entertainment and information for me.  All the best to you and yours.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Edwin has signed with Cleveland. 3/60 with an option.

Same AAV but one fewer year than what the Jays offered.

I think it's time for Rogers to relieve Shi Davidi of his "services".

the jays are too cheap to compete with the Indians.

Last 3yrs:

Encarnacion 12.0war
Morales 0.8war

oh and MERRY CHRISTMAS EDWIN!

Wait, the Indians are signing Encarnacion for what he's done in the past?

Shapiro has publicly stated that he moved from Cleveland to the Jays because he was tired of working for a small-market team and wanted the bigger resources of a bigger-market team.

And then he promptly allows Cleveland to out-bid him for Toronto's best hitter.

Nice.

Last 3yrs:

Encarnacion 12.0war

I know this concept has been covered before (at some length) but since there are posters somehow unable to grasp it, I'll spell it out: if baseball professionals thought Encarnacion was going to produce an average of 4 WAR a year for the next three years, there would be 15 teams throwing $120M at him.

I'm to any theories from these posters as to why Encarnacion settled for a paltry $70M when he's worth so much more than that.

Open to any theories, rather.

And then he promptly allows Cleveland to out-bid him for Toronto's best hitter.

Second best.

Edwin's agent screwed him. He clearly wanted to return to Toronto, and got an offer from them that ended up being $15M more in guaranteed money than what he ended up settling for (4/80 vs. what is now being reported as 3/65 guaranteed from Cleveland). If he plays out all three years in Cleveland, then he'll be heading into free agency again for his age 37 season-beyond. While he could recoup that $15M if continues to hit into his late-30's, that's not something I'd bet on.

I'm also not sure how Cleveland "out-bid" Toronto. Not only was Cleveland's winning bid less than what Toronto was offering last month, but Toronto had already moved on, so they weren't even involved in the bidding anymore. Cleveland outbid whichever teams were left that wanted Edwin (apparently, Oakland was the other team that was hot for him).

There was clearly a miscalculation of the market from both sides. The Jays struck early last winter and it worked. They did it again this winter and it looks like they jumped the gun (with Morales). With that strategy, you will win some and you will lose some, but at the end of the day, I think the FO is probably fine with Morales/Pearce/pick. They wouldn't have jumped on Morales as quickly as they did if they were hung up on keeping Encarnacion.

you seem to really struggle with simple concepts, parker.

nobody suggested he should be paid to be a 4war player the next 3yrs.

but we paid half as much for 1/12th the player.

As I said in the prior post.

"Three Years with an option is a fair deal for Edwin. Of course, Steve Pearce ($6.25 MM) is a much superior defender. Kendrys Morales ($11.0 MM) should have Edwin-like numbers while here, as Atkins hopes he can. The Jays now have some savings left, $3.75 - $8.75 Million should get a good Backup Catcher or much more."

edwin's agent did fine. edwin got the same money. (we don't have any idea whether all 4yrs we offered were guaranteed). and he gets to play for a team that is actually serious about contending. win win for edwin.

the only losers here are the jays.

".....I'm to any theories from these posters as to why Encarnacion settled for a paltry $70M when he's worth so much more than that....."

Since you're judging players by their salary, you should then logically agree that the baseball professionals have decided that Encarnacion is twice as valuable as Morales.

Encarnacion might not be a 4 WAR player in 2017, but he doesn't necessarily have to be a 4 WAR player to be a lot more valuable than Morales.  Of course the future is unpredictable, and maybe Morales will end up as valuable as Edwin in 2017, but the market doesn't think so.

Where are the people who were praising Shapiro and Atkins for the "patience" and "shrewdness"?  They were gleeful because they thought Edwin's value had "cratered" into the mid-teens per year.

If Cleveland exercises its option, Edwin will end up with the same $80-million that Toronto supposedly offered.  So his value didn't "crater."

If the Jays hadn't immediately signed Morales and withdrawn the offer to Edwin, would they have lost the opportunity to sign Morales?  Would his value have risen significantly if they had waited?  I'm not sure if either of those assumptions is true.

"....Second best...."

You're right, of course. 

I should have described Edwin as "Toronto's best free-agent hitter."

There must be some doubts among baseball front offices as to whether EE can sustain his performance or stay healthy. Why else would there be only one serious bidder?

I don't think Cleveland was the only team that wanted Encarnacion.  If they were, his price would have been a lot cheaper.  Six teams in the AL and N: had reportedly submitted multi-year offers for Encarnacion.  Of course we don't know for sure if that's true, but I doubt Cleveland was the only bidder.

I am happy for EE. He deserves to be signed to a good contract.

"....Cleveland outbid whichever teams were left that wanted Edwin...."

This is a sour-grapes assumption: the Jays didn't sign Edwin, so there must have been something wrong with him, because the Jays are "shrewd" and never make mistakes.  You're assuming the Jays didn't want Edwin, when the earlier $80-million offer shows clearly that they did want him, and when the Morales contract shows clearly that the Jays were willing to pay a significant price for a DH.

I used the phrase "outbid" to refer to the entire process over the off-season, not just the past couple of weeks.  Cleveland outbid the Jays because the Jays ultimately decided that they preferred to spend $11-million annually on their DH instead of $20-million annually.  The Jays went for the cheaper option.  They dropped out of the bidding for Edwin, when nothing forced them to do so.

Now, perhaps the advanced analytics team in the Jays organization has decided that Morales will be as productive as Encarnacion over the next three years.  We will wait and see if that's true.

You are 100% correct Gerry. There was minimal demand for his services. The Jays FO was shrewd because for EE they got Morales, Pearce, a 1st round pick plus 2.5 mil more to spend. It won't be long before that is recognized as the right decision.

The Rogers spin machine is going to go into overdrive on this. Regardless of who did what to get them here, to the casual fan this looks like a screw up by management. Rogers doesn't care in the global sense, they just want to field an okay team on a middle class (maybe upper middle class) budget. But they don't like to look look like screw ups. All the local reporters in the Rogers employ will be explaining how EE screwed up or how the team is better off without him. It's all so predictable.

I understand the desire not to be the odd team out if there are a number of teams looking for players at a particular position and a limited supply of players, but in a market that was heavy in corner bats I really have never seen the need to jump on Morales early.

As stated above, we can never be sure how close Morales was to signing elsewhere, but I'm not convinced a signing was imminent, particularly if other teams were not willing to go to three years. Morales is a switch-hitter, but given his lack of speed and lack of any ability to play defence, he has significant weaknesses. His batted-ball stats are reason for optimism, but he's going to have to hit well for the life of the contract because he adds no supplementary value.

Edwin's agent misread the market (and maybe misread how serious Toronto's commitment to get something done early was), but I probably would have done the same and I've been surprised by how heavily his market collapsed, even given the number of corner bats. I'm having trouble thinking of a recent comparable example of a hitter with Edwin's track record having to settle for a short deal like this. He got less guaranteed money than Ian Desmond, who the Rockies signed to play first base.

in any case, maybe it's sentiment and memories talking (although they count, too), but I'd easily prefer to spend an extra $32 million (of Rogers money) for Edwin over Morales. And that's ignoring the fact the team $8 million was spent on Smoak a few months ago for no pressing reason, either. Collectively, those two are earning $41 of Edwin's $65 million guaranteed.

The Jays acted early last offseason and it worked out well in 2016. This offseason, they acted early, but I'm less optimistic about the results for 2017.

Atkins and Shapiro misread Edwin's market and were far from the only ones to do so, but the need for them to have moved early will always be open for debate.

Gerry, aside from the QO (which likely had some impact on Edwin's market), I think it was a combination of his age, his (lack of) position, and expected decline. I'm very interested to see how he ages as a hitter.

I'm not a fan of the 3rd year on Morales, but his hard hit/batted ball/exit velocity profile was excellent last season, and the Jays may see him being better than his projections. That seems to be the trend with this regime's FA signings. It worked last season, we'll have to see how it plays out in 2017.

Kendrys Morales should have Edwin-like numbers while here

Why?

I remember when this used to be a good site for DISCUSSIONS.

It seems now it is just people 'yelling' at each other. Disappointing.

I just came to say that I would miss Edwin and it is really too bad that both his agent and the Jays misread his market so badly.

Now he is going to a team where I can't cheer for him. Too bad.

many teams were bidding for him on what might be the biggest deal for a 34yr old ever (plz somebody check). demand was obviously there.

The Jays didn't get outbid by Cleveland. That's unworthy of a halfway knowledgeable barstool conversation. They signed lesser players for less money and foreclosed room for him on the roster. I think Morales and Pearce will do okay.

But they did get outbid by the Cards for Fowler, and that is what is actually disheartening. Given the lack of trade currency, they needed free agency to plug holes and the upgrades are all gone. The question is how much they can mitigate the downgrades at a number of positions. Kind of sad that "risky contract" is evidently still more of a deal breaker than "bad player playing a key role." The bullpen is a significant weakness and the outfield is simply atrocious. They need to get as lucky as they did with Jose and Edwin the first time around to fix those problems through the bargain bin.

I think it was a screw up on all sides. There were very few people who said EE was crazy to turn down $80M a couple of months ago. It wasn't until the winter meetings that it seemed possible that EE wouldn't get $80M.

I think we can say the FO misjudged but I think almost everyone misjudged.

CF, the Jays signed Morales and Pearce. Practically every news source, including Edwin's agent every time he got near a mic, had closed the door on Edwin returning. Claiming they were "outbid" implies that Cleveland put up a better offer. In reality, the Jays likely withdrew their earlier offer a long time ago and weren't involved in the process this month at all. They had already moved on.

They made him an offer. You can say they knew he would decline it, but clearly you don't make that offer if there is no interest. However, once it was rejected, they moved on. Cleveland picked him up from whichever teams were left that wanted him, and by all accounts none of those teams were Toronto.

Peter, I would agree with your comment if the Jays were in a different place on the win curve. I don't believe that Morales and Pierce, combined, will equal the value of EE next year. The $2.5 million will simply be pocketed by Rogers and the 1st, while nice, is future value. The Jays should be exchanging future value, within reason, for current value in my opinion.

Edwin leaves us with many great memories. He will fit in with the smiling infield in Cleveland and I wish him well for 156 games out of the season.

BTW, if the Jays management thinks the team is in a different place on the win curve then fine, they should be looking to trade JD, Tulo and Martin. But no, we need to field a 78-84 win team!

Morales and Pearce are likely to be two of the team's starters in its regular lineup. Neither will play every day, but they should both be starting 5-6 times a week, barring injury.

They will need to do more than equal the production of a hitter who would otherwise occupy only one lineup spot.

I really want to come up with a quick and dirty way to explain why free-agent signings have never and will never be anything resembling a linear scale of sunk cost.

I'll offer this: look at what Encarnacion's BR comps have done at age-34 and beyond. Look at what Morales' BR comps have done at age-34 and beyond. Encarnacion's comps have not provided anywhere near twice the value. They've barely even produced more than SIMLIAR value!

Even if Edwin's comps HAD produced twice the value, the difference in predictable sunk cost between the two contracts is tremendous.

Nigel, I think it is quite possible that Morales outperforms EE next season considering the park factor. Almost certainly, he and Pearce combined will do better by a considerable margin. Not only is the first round pic included in the return with the 2.5 mil but likely Lourdes Gourriel as well. He and Morales have same agent, signed same day and Lourdes was originally thought to be going to KC.

The FO has done very well imo.

The Jays got the best years of Edwin. I wish him well in Cleveland but time to move on.

Similar value, rather.

There's a huge feel-good mentality among posters that you see on the Sportsnet forums, but the Jays are trying to run a business. They don't need to throw away ridiculous amounts of money (even though they offered it - and it was declined!) for the privilege of carrying dead weight on the roster just because they're paid well. The farm team might or might not be able to produce the same value, but at least they have flexibility if not.

Encarnacion should fire his agent, but Kinzer's incompetence probably saved the Blue Jays about $50M.

Peter I genuinely hope you're right and I am wrong and that the FO has a scouting or statistical model that supports that because based on the statistics that I see there is no basis for that view given their recent three year performances. I am vigorously rooting for your view.

So what do you guys think we're getting for Donaldson?

You have to remember that 3 year performance is not relevant for Morales due to missing close to half the season in 2014 due to the QO system. You can't miss almost 3 months, then be anywhere near your best. You must exclude 2014 season when looking at Morales. If you look at the past 2 full seasons, you have an average of 26 HR and 100 RBI in an extreme pitchers park for home games.

Nigel, I think it's reasonable to think Morales will hit a lot better in Toronto. He had one of the best hard contact and exit velocity rates in baseball last season but played in a park that suppresses power. He also had a low BABIP against RHP last season despite his rates staying relatively consistent so there's some potential there. Whether he hits better than Edwin in 2017 is another story. I'd probably lean towards no, unless Edwin falls off more, but he doesn't have to, and I don't think anyone is expecting him to based on the contract he got.

All the advanced stats adjust for Park factor. That helps but doesn't make the Morales for EE swap look good. The most promising stats were the 2016 exit velocity info that suggested that Morales was unlucky last year. I completely understand wishcasting that a move to Rogers may help Morales more than expected or that we should exclude portions of seasons but these need to be understood for what they are, wishful thinking. That's okay, ''tis the season for wishful thinking.

I'll offer this: look at what Encarnacion's BR comps have done at age-34 and beyond. Look at what Morales' BR comps have done at age-34 and beyond. Encarnacion's comps have not provided anywhere near twice the value. They've barely even produced more than SIMLIAR value!

Even if Edwin's comps HAD produced twice the value, the difference in predictable sunk cost between the two contracts is tremendous.

Looking at EE's BBref comparables through age 33-34 is quite shocking. All the modern day guys (Dye, Carter, Salmon, Glaus, Sexson) were all basically done by age 34. Most of them played their final seasons at age 34 or before. Only Joe Carter lasted until 38 but was pretty awful the whole time. And most of these guys at least played more defensively valuable positions but still couldn't provide any value.

From 2009-onwards, Morales was pretty consistent aside from the 2014 season where he sat out the first couple of months. In that time span he had wRC+ figures of 136, 128, 119, 119, 72, 130, and 110 respectively. That's not Edwin calibre, but still a good hitter. The difference in this case is whether you believe his batted ball profile will lead to better performance in a better HR park. Like I said, there's reason to believe a change in parks and better luck with balls in play will bring him back up to the 120 wRC+ range, which is likely what the Jays envision with him. Again, not Edwin calibre, but for the money he's getting, certainly worth the investment. I'm more concerned about his bad base running. The hitting should be fine. Whereas with Edwin you started to see ratios dip a bit, that wasn't the case with Morales, at least not yet.

A quick confirmation.
Does the Jays get one draft pick for each of EE, Joey Bats and other free agents whom other MLB team signed off the Jays? So that means that BoSox yields a draft pick after signing EE. Or a team on the KBE in South Korea needs to give financial compensations to the Jays for signing?

A 43-year-old Roger Clemens sat out for half the year and was pretty good when he returned to professional baseball.

But even if you discount his partial 2014 season and use 2013 for Morales instead, he has put up 5.9 WAR over 2013, 2015 and 2016. That's an average of just under 2.0 WAR a season. And it's very possible his batted ball data led the front office to conclude that he was a little unlucky in 2016 and likely to improve in 2017.

Over his last three seasons, Edwin has posted 12.0 WAR, so that's 4.0 WAR a season, or twice what Morales has averaged over his last three full seasons. And maybe you don't view his batted ball data as containing the positives that Morales' does.

He's still been twice as valuable a hitter as Edwin over the past three years, and he creates more lineup flexibility because he can play a passable 1B.

It seems to me that everyone was expecting Edwin to sign a $130/5 contract with some club. Most MLB clubs either had no need for Edwin or turned their mind elsewhere, figuring he'd eventually get that money.

Does the Jays get one draft pick for each of EE, Joey Bats and other free agents whom other MLB team signed off the Jays? So that means that BoSox yields a draft pick after signing EE. Or a team on the KBE in South Korea needs to give financial compensations to the Jays for signing?

Not sure what you're saying/asking here. The old "type A / type B" free agent system expired years ago. Since then, only free agents rejecting qualifying offers made by the team yield a draft pick, either 1st round or 2nd round if 1st round is protected, I believe. That system expires after this year and there will be NO more draft pick compensation at all - which is why many people are worried about losing JD for nothing. We made qualifying offers to JB and EE. That's it. We can only get compensation for those two.

The Indians, not the BoSox signed EE. That results in a compensation pick for us - after the regular 1st round, I believe, since Cleveland finished high enough to not have a protected pick. The only other possible compensation pick we could get is for Bautista, assuming he signs with a team that is not Toronto. I think it's highly unlikely he signs in Korea, or anywhere else not in MLB, IMHO.

Our other free agents (e.g. Dickey, Cecil, etc) were signed / can be signed by other teams without ANY compensation to us. Whether MLB, KBE or California Penal.

Ugly,

You've had a target for this regime since AA left. Why? You went on for months last offseason when the Jays let Price walk and again after they signed Happ. Your insistence that the Jays are not competing is a bit over the top. Off season is still not done (I'm not hopeful they will do much) but more important, we have yet to see the results of management's decisions so far on the field other than last year, which worked out well.

I'm with Parker, BJW, SK, and the rest who see it's time to move on and shift the ball club to the future without a full rebuild. If the Jays suck next year then they probably will sell Donaldson and others to try to rebuild quickly around Tulowitzki. Until that happens, why crucify management's decision to try a strategy different than what you would have done? They've got a better track record than you, that's for sure, and letting us know in advance that the team isn't competing with the likes of Cleveland and pondering what we can get for Donaldson...let the actual events transpire in real life to decide that.

If the Jays signed Edwin, then we know for sure Smoak plays at least 70 or more games at 1B. Maybe the remaining $27.5 Million lets the Jays get fill how many of the remaining 5-7 holes?

...California Penal.

Hehehe. Nice.

Fangraphs has the Blue Jays current payroll at $141 million.  If the limit is $160 million, Shapiro/Atkins were going to have difficulty in competing filling holes with players at the Encarnacion/Fowler level once they decided to spend on Smoak and Gurriel.  They have ended up (so far) "spreading the risk around" as they did last year, rather than using the stars and scrubs approach.  There is some merit to each approach, but what bugs me most is the low limit. 

As for the particulars of Encarnacion and Morales, it seems to me that the relevant question is not "how did they perform?", but rather "how are they likely to perform over the next 3 years?".  Encarnacion had a good year in one sense in 2016.  He played a whole season, and he was serviceable defensively at first base when he played there.  There was noticeable deterioration in his hitting ability, with contact rates and quality both significantly down.  He turns 34 in a couple of weeks.  It is possible to turn it around, as Ortiz' career illustrates, but I don't think that he is likely to do it playing first base for half the season or more.  Morales looks like the same hitter as he always was.  The batted ball quality adjustments (exit velocity and angle) have him as a better hitter than Encarnacion in 2016.  I don't buy it hook, line and sinker, but I do think that they are likely to be closer in value in 2017 than they have been over the past 3 years.  As far as I am concerned, the whole Pearce/Morales/Encarnacion thing is pretty much a wash. 

"You've had a target for this regime since AA left. Why?"

because I knew they were going to go in the direction of eschewing star talent and loading up on "clever" cheaper deals instead, and it's a philosophy I think is both misguided and poor entertainment.....and most importantly one that i knew would lessen the chance of us capitalizing on what may have been the best roster in jays history.

but yes maybe they're the smartest guys in the room and can outclever the league every year.

but the fact we were trading for middling prospects at last year's deadline still infuriates me.

...and most importantly one that i knew would lessen the chance of us capitalizing on what may have been the best roster in jays history.

This specific brand of hyperbole comes off as extraordinarily foolish to anyone who followed the Jays from the mid 80's to the early 90's.

the roster AA built was as good or better than any of those teams. if you actually have an argument against that, and not just pathetic insults embarassing to anyone old enough to watch those previous great jays teams, feel free to share it.

I will say this - it takes some stones to compare a team that rode a two month hot streak to squads that made five playoff appearances in 8 years (when only two teams per league made the playoffs) and actually won championships.

I too believe those early Jays teams were our best.

"5 playoffs in 8 years" is a misleading statement, of course.

The 85 team had nothing to do with the world series teams. the 89 team barely did either.

And rememember, only 2 of those 5 teams actually won a playoff series.

i'd put the jays roster of the past 2yrs against any of those rosters, player by player.

In my view, the 2015 edition post-July trade deadline was one of the very best Jays teams ever. They probably would have made the WS had it not been for the shoulder fracture that hobbled Tulo as well as the injuries to Cecil and Travis.

The 2016 team was also very good, with excellent starting pitching, strong defense, and decent run production. By October, however, the offense was hobbled by injuries and/or fatigue.

Reggie Jackson was called Mr October. He came up big in the playoffs. Maybe 3 years in a row for the NYY.

Then there was the HRs of E Sprague and Joe Carter. I think it was Sprague.

Just reliving some memories. I am hoping for some more good October memories in the future.

I'd put the jays roster of the past 2yrs against any of those rosters, player by player. Statistically, that might be true. But these teams lack the accomplishments of those past squads, which is why they play the games. If it turns out that we are a couple of years into a similar sustained run of excellence, with these teams proving the seedbed of a ten year contender, I will happily re-evaluate.

Merry Christmas everyone. Cheers !!!!!

So we have playoff teams and Champions mid 80's to 93. Then 2 more good teams in 2015 and 16.

So what does the future hold ? Gloom and doom? 84-86 wins is disappointing. 88-91 is pretty good in my books because that probably means a 2nd WC contender. If we get in then We have a shot.

I was not counting the SF Giants out because MadBum has the ability to beat the other team by himself.

Merry Christmas to everybody here and all the best in 2017 !

Woo hoo, 2-LO bobblehead!

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Merry Christmas to the talkers and listeners (lurkers sounds way too creepy) of da Box.

Merry Christmas to all. Just catching up on 'da box stuff now.. Family stuff the last couple of days took precedence - as it should..

Merry Christmas.

Touched base with my sister-in-law from Montreal.
She's a fan, but the only player she cares about is Russell Martin.