The big question is the outfield.

Available free agents:

Jose Bautista
Chris Coghlan
Brandon Moss
Ben Revere
Michael Saunders

Trade targets:

Jarrod Dyson
Curtis Granderson
Charlie Blackmon
JD Martinez

Inside options:

Dalton Pompey
Harold Ramirez

"available" is an interesting word to describe ben revere!

Like I said in the previous thread. I think Bautista is being undervalued and would love to see him back on a 2-3 year deal. If the Jays were interested in Fowler, why would they not be all over Mccutchen. He has 2 years left on his contract at 14.5 million/year.  If that is accurate info a 2 year 28 million dollar contract for age 31,32 season is pretty good.  I wonder what Pittsburgh wants in return....if you were planning on playing Fowler in right field...Mccutchen is the same high OBP player with more power coming off a down year where you could get him for 25% off. What would you be willing to give up for Mccutchen.  Alford, Pompey, Greene, Reid-Foley.....3 of the 4 might work. Last season was the first time Mccutchens OBP has dropped below .400 in 4 years. If you are going to let Bautista and EE head elsewhere and pick up the sandwich picks i think its ok to spend some prospect capital.

Yasiel Puig anyone?

I think Bautista might be the best way to go at this point in time. I don't think there is any chance the Jays get McCutchen - they don't have the prospect capital - McCutchen has been the face of the Pirates franchise for a while now, and they'd want a ton for him. The Nationals dropped out of negotiations for him because the Pirates wanted too much and look what they were willing to give up for Eaton. Guys like Alford, Greene, etc aren't the caliber of player the Pirates would be after. Coghlan would be a nice platoon partner for Upton at the plate, but he's a poor outfielder. Melky Cabrera is a guy I've heard mentioned a few places as an option. Again, he's a poor fielder, though. Moss, Saunders, sure, there's lots of options, each with his own unique set of abilities and flaws. It will be interesting to see what they come up with. I still have a pretty optimistic view on Pompey, actually, but I'd like to see him prove it with a good start in Buffalo..

Much as I'd love to se McCutchen in the Jay's outfield, I can see the wisdom in not going for him. I had no issue with AA trading a boatload of prospects in an effort to win it all, and Syndergaard is the only one I wish he hadn't dealt. It's imperative at some point ,though, that some good young players with cheap contracts filter into the lineup to balance out the big contracts the established stars. The only young player the Jays have that could challenge for an outfield spot is Pompey with Alford at least a year away so I guess we're left with is picking through the remainder of the free agents, all of whom have flaws of some kind.

Whatever they do, I hope the FO is patient - almost 4 months before opening day - the 1984 Cubs turned around their fortunes with a trade on March 26

Bautista is a great target on a short-term contract (two or three years, perhaps including an option year). High OBP, slugging power, won't hurt the team too much on defence, has some positional flexibility. His OBP since 2010 is an incredible .387. He'll get on base, he'll drive in runs, he's perfect for the 2 or 3 slot in the lineup. And arguably he is due for a bounce-back season after the injuries of last year.

Can the Jays acquire him? Setting aside the money question, there are some intangibles to speculate about. On the positive side, he likes Toronto, he enjoys the team, the fans love him, he likes Canada, he won't be afraid of foreign borders or passports or taxes, and he probably has a better chance of off-field business opportunities in Toronto. On the negative side: he might be reluctant to return to Toronto after making a clear statement that he felt underpaid in the past. He's a proud guy, and he sees this as his moment to get his proper financial due, proper monetary justice, after several years of playing on a bargain contract. But on balance, he's a good fit in Toronto and probably easier to lure to Toronto than many other free agents -- as long as the Front Office can find a way to finesse the "pride" issue. That's where they need to get creative and persuasive. This could be an interesting test for the new Front Office. It's one thing to emphasize "value points" and prudent calculations. But sometimes they need to charm a free agent, to find persuasive arguments and compensation that goes beyond money. If they are creative, they should be able to find a way to bring Bautista back. I think it can be done. They might even have to go to Rogers and ask for a bit of extra money this year. They should be able to make that case too. It's a logical case to make: the team's revenue and popularity has soared in the past two years, now let's invest a little of that money in keeping a fan favorite on the team -- a fan favorite who happens to be a perfect fit in the existing lineup.

Well put, China fan.

I'll never be Bautista's biggest fan, but I definitely agree with many posters here that if pride isn't standing in his way, he'd be a good fit for the Jays. The financial commitment will be far short of what it'd cost to retain Encarnacion, and it's also not impossible that Bautista is a better hitter than Edwin in two years.

The Jays would need to keep him out of RF, though - both for the good of the team and for health reasons. Unless I'm wrong, all the time he missed last year were due to injuries sustained in fielding mishaps. It looked to me like he knew he was slowing down physically and was trying to make up for it by simply trying harder, and he ends up hurting himself twice in the process.

While I do think that we have the prospect capital to get McCutchen given his potential decline, I agree that we should be holding on to prospects at this point.  I'd like to see both of Bautista and EE back but that's not happening, unfortunately.  Both have seen their markets crater, and IMO, both are likely to sign with us on more favourable terms given their stated desire to play here.  This sort of thing does happen in Toronto - Demar Derozan with the Raps springs to mind. 

I'm sure the Morales move actually contributed to their declining markets while ironically blocking the logical path for either player to return to TO.  I don't like it, but the FO played the market well here. 

Clearly, Rogers is not interested in rewarding the fan base for their support, as the FO has previously implied they would.  We are looking at a rise in payroll commensurate with other contending teams, not an increase based on our exceptional fan support.  Perhaps it's the dollar, perhaps its corporate frugality - or even wisdom, depending on your POV.

Given that, both of EE and Bautista look like value contracts right now.  China, I hope you are right that the budget could grow to return a hometown hero, but I imagine our parameters are what they are. 

I don't think Smoak is an issue at all - clearly, his value has declined since he signed his extension, but we could eat a bit of the contract and move him to a team like Colorado easily. 

FWIW, BP likes the STL signing of Fowler and thinks it's a value contract.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30816

I'd definitely take Bautista back on a one year deal. I'm not sure he'll get much more and quite frankly, it may be in his interest to get a short term deal to reset his value for a post-compensation FA market.

His defense is not good, but if Pillar and Pompey are sharing the outfield with him, we should chase down our share of balls.

He would have gone to St-Louis to play center field there for 4/60 since nobody else was offering more.
So, it's not value related to the market.

Is it value for the dollars? You can argue that a WAR is worth 8M and that he can deliver more than 10 WAR over 5 years.
We'll see.

I wouldn't mind Bautista on a 1 year contract to rebuild his value. It's probably easier to overpay him on a one year deal.

McCutchen would be too expensive.

Bautista would be great to sign to a 2 year deal.

The thing is, there seems to be something going on that we don't know about. Shi Davidi and Wilner have both said that there's no chance Bautista is coming back. Since he would be a fit on this roster, the fact that those guys are so adamant he won't be back leads me to believe they know something. Either Bautista doesn't want to come back or this FO doesn't.

I would have rather significantly overpaid for Fowler than give up the young talent needed to get McCutchen.

McCutchen would cost stro+travis+.

BJW has shown logic in contents. Thumb up.

Shi Davidi and Wilner have both said that there's no chance Bautista is coming back.
The fact that those guys are so adamant he won't be back.
[Baustista] would be a fit on this roster.

Conclusion: BlueJayWay believes Davidi and Wilner know something or there seems to be something going on that BlueJaysWay and buddies don't know about.

Morals of the story:
1) read carefully (between the lines?) about insider comments
2) get to and then connect to the source of these insiders, say subscribing to their Twitters accounts?
3) use logic to analyze the information.

Why Harold Ramirez? Would Carrera and Ceciliani be ahead of H. Ramirez ?

As I've mentioned, judging from the comments of media members who cover the team, this FO seems to have conveyed the impression that Bautista is too high maintenance for them - this is a very businesslike button down type FO.

I think for Bautista to return, ownership would have to override the FO.

As far as I can tell Shapiro said that the payroll will go up. But he did not say by how much.

I also think that Shapiro had to put up a good showing in 2016. After the success of the 2015 team, 2016 had to be good to avoid a bad comparison to AA.

Fortunately he had the players. Also a mostly healthy team. JD, Bautista and EE were cheap in 2016. I don't know about Martin and Tulo.

For 2017 there are built in excuses. The biggest is the loss of EE and Bautista if that happens as many expect.

If I may, I will continue on this good PR concern. IMO JD cannot be traded now because it will create bad PR. Our hope/expectations will be low. Unless the team wins from the start, then all is forgiven. Especially if the prospects received produce later.

Our rotation could be very strong, if healthy. Happ, Estrada and Liriano are all experienced and capable of 170-190 IP. Sanchez and Stroman have had enough success to have a good year if healthy. A good defense compliments good pitching. We have good defense, probably at all positions.

With luck and good health we can win a lot of low scoring games.

The only reason Bautista coming back doesn't happen is if one or both sides do not like each other on a personal level. The money and term can be worked out now that Bautista's market appears to be slim. Obviously the marketing aspect for the team and for Bautista is there in Toronto. From a pure baseball standpoint, a reunion for two years makes sense for and helps both sides. However, if ego is involved on either side, then that could complicate things.

If not Bautista, then looking at the free agent list, I think Brandon Moss is a good possibility. He K's a lot and has a low BA, so I'm sure he'll have his detractors, but he can hit RHP, has legit power, is average defensively as an OF, and given his age should be able to be a short-term sign. Wouldn't surprise me if that's the direction they go in assuming they are going to move on from Bautista.

China Fan said: "On the negative side: he might be reluctant to return to Toronto after making a clear statement that he felt underpaid in the past. He's a proud guy, and he sees this as his moment to get his proper financial due"

I agree with this, and have never thought there was any chance of re-signing Bautista for this very reason. Given his statements in the past, unless the FO totally acquiesced to his opening demands, I think it's more likely that signs elsewhere for LESS than he would have taken to re-sign here, just to save face and not appear that he was crawling back. Just my opinion, pure speculation.

Having said that, while he certainly does fill a need here (I think that's obvious enough, given that he would essentially be replacing himself), I would just as soon see a fresh face in RF. Again, this is my own opinion, but given Jose's statements in the past (about not making any moves in '14, his disappointment at trading away Reyes in '15, calling out the pitching staff when they were struggling, etc) I think he may be a bit disruptive in the clubhouse. Maybe not "this is a sinking ship" level disruptive, but he just strikes me as a little too ready to criticize anyone and everyone other than his own performance. Donaldson and Tulo seem like level-headed competitive players who would be more likely to keep things together when they aren't going as well as you'd like. R.A. struck me as the same type of personality, and I think that will be missed (even if his starts won't).

It was nearly a disaster when Godfrey did that for Vernon Wells.

Override the FO, I mean.

Nobody forced Bautista to sign that contract in Toronto. He could have gone to free agency and probably gotten less.
I don't think AA forced him to sign for that many years either. His agent wanted the guaranteed money.
He exceeded expectation. That's no different than any star player being massively underpaid during their first 6 years of team control. He doesn't feel that he owes the Toronto any team discount out of loyalty. That's fair.
I don't see him signing elsewhere out of spite though.

The expectations is that he will go for the longest contract he can get and that's probably not in Toronto.
However, if that market isn't there and he has to accept a short deal, Toronto is probably the best place for him.

If he lost face, it's because of comments like "circumstances" and "shaking in his boots" while he kept swinging for the fences in every at-bat. Also, his defense and his health are big question marks. 

He's never made more than 14M and refused a QO of 17+M. 18M on a one year deal should be OK if the alternative is not playing until June.

The issue is probably that Shapiro isn't likely to wait that long.

Look. I'm a bastard... that's been pretty clearly established. But oh my God, cybercavalier, if we're going to start pretending Mike Wilner knows what he's talking about, what are we even doing here?

agreed.

I'm sure the Morales move actually contributed to their declining markets while ironically blocking the logical path for either player to return to TO.  I don't like it, but the FO played the market well here.

Good point. On the other hand, his contract isn't THAT onerous. 3/33 IIRC - if we can save $10-15 million off JB/EE contracts due to the "cratered" market.. Then his contract comes almost for free.

Early on, talks were about 4/80 for EE, 5/100 or such for JB. That would be $40M/year together. With the "new" market situation, would they both take 3/65 with an opt-out after 2? That would be a savings of $50M total - enough that we can flip Morales to someone else for maybe one decent prospect, or maybe trade for an out-of-favor reliever and hope for a bounce-back year?

Not saying this is likely, just that we may have actually reduced their value enough with the Morales' signing, that the Morales' signing is "free". Or at least, Smoak's $4M/year is paid for and we can DFA him..

Could be that the FO hasn't been "hot" on Bautista because they knew his market would be limited. Now, having expressed little interest they have the upper hand if they are to negotiate with him. Expressing little interest would also include telling local media that he's as good as gone. Who knows, but I agree that Bautista is a good fit especially considering how little there is left on the market. I'd go up to 3 years with him, maybe 15 million per.

1. Backup Catcher who can be a #1a if Martin is hurt $7.0 - $9.0 Million.
2. LH Reliever who can pitch late innings $7.0 - $8.0 Million.
3. RF who can do everything we need $15.0 - $20.0 Million
4. LF who can platoon with Melvin $11.0 - $15.0 Million.
If the Jays can do it for less, good on them.

Accept what people like Mike Wilner, Shi Davidi, Ben Nicholson Smith and the Talking heads say as information. Decide whether you want to accept it or not. Anything else does not matter.

#3 and #4 could be the guys we had last year - Bautista and Saunders as I can't recall either having any rumours lately. Plus at this stage they might be the best options.

No team in baseball is spending $29M a year on a catching platoon, unless you count Joe Mauer as a catcher.

1. Backup Catcher who can be a #1a if Martin is hurt $7.0 - $9.0 Million.
2. LH Reliever who can pitch late innings $7.0 - $8.0 Million.
3. RF who can do everything we need $15.0 - $20.0 Million
4. LF who can platoon with Melvin $11.0 - $15.0 Million.

All of the above is absurd and simply not happening

If the Jays can do it for less good on them.

If Russell Martin is hurt, a long injury, who's the Jays #1? He's not in-house, so he needs to be the Backup Catcher. It's very simple, you get what you pay for. I think the cost of someone that good is expensive. The Jays may not agree.

If the Jays can do it for less good on them.

Whether in trade or in Free Agency, LH Relievers are expensive and as the Offseason progresses, likely to remain so. Waiting for prices to come down may result in lost opportunities before anything resolves. I just don't think the Jays are willing to spend the price and they must.

If the Jays can do it for less good on them.

In RF the Jays need to get better - younger, faster, better defense, more balance and good offense. I think they fail here. The best options are in trade and are expensive. Free Agency no longer has that caliber of talent available.

In LF they need someone like Michael Saunders with better defense. The going rate is mentioned.

If the Jays get a RF then it likely a good Reliever, a cheap Backup Catcher and Carrera fill the holes. If the Jays get a LF then it's likely a good Reliever, a good Backup Catcher and Carrera fill the holes. Getting two Relievers isn't going to happen. That's how you spend $25.0 - $27.5 Million.

As uglyone mentioned you really can't do much to mitigate against long-term injuries to star position players. If Martin gets hurt, his replacement is going to suck in comparison. I'll grant you the dropoff from Martin to Thole was pretty extreme, but everyone knows Thole was only even on the team because he could catch Dickey. Any other catcher that bad would've most likely been cut a third of the way through the season. Thole was a special case, but that's hardly an argument in favor of trying to find a catcher worth $7-9M a year who'd be willing to sign as a backup. Navarro was only getting $4M a year and even he wasn't happy as a backup - he all but demanded a trade once the Jays signed Martin.

Serious injuries to Tulo or Donaldson would be crippling as well - the team just doesn't have a lot of position player depth in the high minors right now, and even if they did, the dropoff in production would be enormous. If there were players almost as good as those guys in the Jays system, they'd already be on the ML team.

The pitching argument makes more sense, because in the rotation or bullpen when someone gets hurt, everyone else just moves up a spot - you don't have to fill a specific role so much as you have to try to ensure that the best pitcher who doesn't make the team out of Spring Training isn't a huge dropoff from the worst pitcher who does.

If the Jays had a Zobrist type, that'd help with positional depth a lot - in that case they could call up the next best hitter rather than the next best hitter who can fill the specific position of the injured player. It'd also be a huge help for resting guys throughout the season. There just aren't many Zobrist types out there, though, and guys like he and Desmond are already getting paid more than a lot of the Jays existing starters.

When Dioner Navarro asked for a trade after Russell Martin was signed, the fact that a #1 Catcher was available and cheap did nothing. No one was willing to give him more than a Backup role. He wasn't seen as good enough.

Because the Jays' Backup Catcher might have to catch more than the usual 30 - 35 games, it would be nice if more time was spent selecting who to sign. Then spend what is needed to sign him. Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro need not apply.

What would the Mets' Michael Conforto be worth? Or any other good young OF? If Stroman is the ask, see if expanding the deal satisfies the price. If not walk away. If it does, other things need to happen,but it does solve several possible holes and create amazing talking points.

Blue Jay birthdays today include Dalton Pompey, Willie Canate and Derek Bell. 

According to BBRef, the Blue Jays have the 4th highest estimated payroll in the division this year so far.  If they can't outspend Baltimore, they've got a problem.  The O's haven't drawn 3 million fans since 2001 and they don't have a comparable broadcast market at all.  I'll grant that they do have an impressive history, a better broadcast crew and have a couple of memorable references in the Wire. 

I can see the Jays being able to handle the loss of Donaldson/ Tulo/ Travis okay defensively. Goins, Barney in the middle is fine. I'm not sure if Dominguez got re-signed, he's pre-arb so I think the Jays still control his rights. By the numbers, he's competent, though his last full season was bad. The drop-off offensively though....Martin-Thole territory.

RSS, I think Conforto would be the most valuable non-Cespedes Mets OF, because he's young-ish, and had a good 2nd half if I remember correctly. He also destroyed Vegas (1200 OPS) in a 1/5 of a season. Bruce is the most expendable and has the least value. I think he's fixable, and that he has mechanical issues (his 1st half in CIncinatti was career-year pace), but I don't know if he has the discipline to return to what works. If Bruce is fixable he has upside, but his downside is lower than Conforto. I just think Bruce is the only one you can get without giving up a prospect/ player off the ML roster.

So far it seems slim pickings outside of last year's Jays. The good players to move on with are gone, the buy-low guys are gone... not many options.
Dodgers and Astros may have numbers crunch later. Just ugh.

Well, technically it's Baltimore that has a problem.

The lineup can hit, but it's not longer cheap and their rotation is terrible. They made the post-season last year only because they had an amazing start.

Their payroll is near maxed out and their farm system is empty. Do they let Machado walk in 2 years or sell early?
Chris Davis is owed 23M for 6 more years and just struck out a record 219 times.

Jimenez/Gallardo/Miley cost over 33M.

"When Dioner Navarro asked for a trade after Russell Martin was signed, the fact that a #1 Catcher was available and cheap did nothing. No one was willing to give him more than a Backup role. He wasn't seen as good enough."

Of course he wasn't seen as good enough. The Tampa Bay Rays (lowest payroll in the league) were the only team who ever saw Navarro as a starter (when he was league-minimum cheap) and he never even got any time as a starter until 2013 when injuries allowed him to split at-bats with 3rd-stringer Wellington Castillo and he lucked out with an extraordinary BABIP in 266 PA for the Cubs.

The Jays signed him on the cheap to be their starter because they didn't have any internal options they trusted, and he lasted all of one season before they signed an actual starting catcher.

"I can see the Jays being able to handle the loss of Donaldson/ Tulo/ Travis okay defensively. Goins, Barney in the middle is fine."

That's my point. There's a giant dropoff in offense, but they're all virtually league-minimum cheap, they're solid defenders at premium defensive positions, and they're the best options the Jays have. There's no reason to pay millions in free-agent cost to sit a guy on the bench just in case a starter gets hurt.

The Nats just dumped Espinosa because they didn't want to pay him $4M a year to sit on the bench. Goins is a better defender than Espinosa but at least Espinosa hits like Kevin Pillar. That kind of bench option is not worth $4M when you have Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy (or Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki) as starters.

Relax, I was trying to develop a method of distilling -- figuratively -- information from sources. Linking my perspectives with Wilner is irrelevant.

I shall type more about backup catcher in other reply.

Can available free agent catchers in the majors and minors be very roughly sorted into 3 types.

1) are able to be a starter on his own but for some setbacks such as injury, his performance was less than expected in 2016, Was 2016 Mike Wieters an example? This type is not going to play backup for a chance to be a starter only if Martin is injured.
2) What you see is what you get type. Aged early to mid-30s. They can hold on their own but will they show a sudden jump in offense for one season in 2017 only? Example Ianetta, Soto.
FO touched base with Ianetta, Bobby Wilson and Geovany Soto. Any of those would do.
Just with reference to my last post, use sources or all I type in this post is merely nothing.
3) Potential starter who is a backup for some other team, good enough performance as a backup. Can he be stretched out as more of a starter? Example: Hermann of Diamondbacks.
4) is a prospecty in Jays system. Give him a chance in the mix of backup. Example: A J Jimenez.
5) excels in Triple-A 2016. Example: JPA
6) weak starter in 2016 and before means flaw(s) in performance but as a backup, he is good enough. Aged 29 to 30 is an advantage because he may hit suddenly better. Example: Alex Avila was an 2011 All-Star at age 24 and an LHB. He is going to be 30 in 2017.

Is the Jays going to invite a bunch of 3,4,5,6 type to spring training if they still want to and be physically fit to play professional baseball for MLB 2017?

In assessing a backup catcher option,

1) Which team(s) out of all MLB teams give him a chance and what salary. Was it only one team handing him a league minimum contract?
2) How BABIP contribute to a spike or drop in offense?
3) No trusted internal option available.

' That kind of bench option is not worth $4M when you have Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy (or Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki) as starters.'

In general your point is spot on. In baseball, you don't pay players big money to be back ups. It's not real Madrid. With Tulo and a Travis and their injury history a good case can be made for spending a little more to get a better backup.

Barney is a quality backup imo.

And we're hoping that gurriel and urena won't be stuck in AA all year.

How about signing Michael Saunders for RF and Ben Revere for LF platoon with Melvin Upton JR and possibly Saunders in RF.

Probably one of the cheaper options short of doing nothing.

Michael Saunders erased almost all of his value playing LF last year. He's a year older and a year more crippled.

Blue Jay birthdays today include Dalton Pompey

In lieu of having a party, Dalton Pompey spent his 24th birthday walking around downtown Toronto in the snow handing out Tim Horton's gift cards (which he purchased) to people less fortunate. He's a class act.

Also, as bad as Saunders was in LF last year, he made Jose Bautista look like Jason Hayward in RF by comparison, and if the Jays re-sign Saunders, Gibbons is going to Boomhauer his way to making Jays fans wish they traded for Jay Bruce to stumble around the outfield.

Saunders could only provide value as a LH platoon DH, and the Jays already committed a bunch of money to Morales and Smoak for those roles. The Jays already have their hands full convincing former outfielders to come back with Jose Bautista.

can we ban the name Revere?

I don't really want to see Saunders back. He strikes out way too much, sucks in the field, and isn't likely to hold up over a full-season. I'd rather have Ben Revere honestly.

Is it possible the Jays are missing something by waiting the market out?

I don't want Saunders either. A Bruce trade is possible but it would entail waiting out the Mets. I predict that Brandon Moss will be signed......don't know if another OF or not. I can see a minor league contract to compete with AJ for backup C as that is what Atkins suggested a couple of weeks back.....Chris Gimenez or Brayan Pena perhaps. I expect much of the same in the pen with Jeff Manship being a possible candidate. And yes, they will spend more than that but on what remains to be seen...maybe looking for a Liriano type trade before or in season.

There really wasn't much difference defensively between Saunders and Bautista.
I never really understood why Saunders played in RF.

For the record, I wasn't advocating trading for Bruce - just saying that Saunders in RF would make us wish the Jays HAD traded for Bruce.

I have my fingers crossed for a Granderson trade, if it doesn't cost the entire farm. McCutchen I'm a little less excited about, because he WOULD cost the farm, and it worries me the Jays would be getting 2016 Cutch production for 2009-2015 Cutch cost. Man, Eaton sure would've looked good in a Jays uniform. Anyway, if the Granderson cost is prohibitive and the Jays need to do a stopgap thing, I'd actually be okay with Revere as well. (sorry uglyone)

I have an awful premonition of Gibbons running out an outfield of Morales / Carrera / Pearce if Pillar got hurt or needed a day off.

"Texas-leaguer" would instantly become the most-heard phrase on Blue Jays broadcasts.

@ Parker. Then we should get a much stronger pen. More strikeout type pitchers.

I am joking. This is festive season humor. Right.

Hehehe, nice.

you guys realize what revere did last year, right?

According to reports on MLBTR, the Jays and Bautista continue to talk since the WM. I wonder is something might be brewing there. I would much prefer him to return than Saunders especially if it might be a one year deal. I much prefer JBO in rf over Saunders, even defensively. They are both below average defensively but JBO is the smarter player and can fill in other spots when necessary.

At the risk of starting to fight, can someone explain to me why we should be so terrified of taking on any contract longer than 3yrs?

Longterm Payroll Committments

2018 $74.4
2019 $52.2
2020 $14.0
2021 $4.0

I don't know if something is brewing, but it just makes sense to circle back to Jose now that their options are dwindling. He is the best FA left as far as the Jays needs. It's just a matter of getting egos in check and dollars/term to match up. If Bautista's value is as low as it appears to be, then it's a logical fit for both sides, as mentioned before. He is still a projected 3 win player despite bad defense. On a short-term deal (1-2 years), it's something the Jays have to pursue. If it goes beyond that (3+ years), then pass.

As far as Revere, I wouldn't mind if it came cheap and he's healthy. He had bad BABIP luck last season and is probably average defensively in LF. If they feel he's a bounce back candidate and he comes cheap, then they could do a lot worse. He wouldn't be my first choice though, obviously. Aim higher and settle if nothing else materializes.

There is absolutely no reason for this club to be afraid of taking on a player for more than 3 years.  The question is always: "which player?".  Let's say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes it up to the majors by age 20 and is hitting like he reasonably might, for a couple of years.  If you want to sign him to an 8 year contract or a 10 year contract, knock yourself out. 

On the other hand, signing players to long-term contracts where the 4th/5th/succeeding years are after age 35 is not something one ought to do often. 

you guys realize what revere did last year, right?

He plays plus defence and he had an inexplicably bad BABIP in 2016. And he's still only going to be 29 next season. And he's available cheap. His picture should be in the baseball dictionary next to "Buy-Low Candidate". :)

He's like Dalton Pompey in his prime, except with a career .320 OBP over seven seasons in MLB. Not that I don't like Pompey, it's just that Revere has actually produced at the ML level.

plus defense? really?

and if by buy low you mean invite to spring training, then yeah I can see it.

Career

Pompey (21-23): 148pa, 8sb (80%), 86wrc+, +4.1uzr/150, +21.9drs/150
Revere (22-28): 3035pa, 190sb (80%), 83wrc+, +2.6uzr/150, -2.7drs/150

AAA

Pompey (21-23): 723pa, 111wrc+
Revere (23-28): 259pa, 91wrc+

AA

Pompey (21-22): 275pa, 158wrc+
Revere (22-22): 406pa, 106wrc+

As far as the Jays go there have been a few 3+ year contracts. Steib, V Wells and Martin. We have traded for Buehrle, but he was 3 years here. And Tulo is 3+. Also RA Dickey spent 4 years here.

JB and EE may have signed for 3+.

Alex Rios had a long contract.

If my information is correct then this 3 year length is inaccurate.

We just signed Gurriel Jr for 7 years.

Most likely the extra years were options to be picked up. If parameters were met.

"If my information is correct then this 3 year length is inaccurate."

Only referring to the current FO. 3yr seems to be their general limit - Happ, Morales - and a term which even the FA skeptics here seem fine with.

But suddenly when we talk about 4 or 5 years for guys like EE or Fowler, people refer to it as a crazy risky committment.

invite to spring training

I always wonder what the upside of spring training invitations is other than gauging a player's health. What if Revere were to hit .400 in spring training? What if he were to hit .125? Would either of these serve as meaningful predictors of major league performance?

My concern over spring training invitations is the threat of too much being made of a strong performance in a small sampling of at-bats against weak competition.

Regarding Revere: this should be the sort of thing that Big Data can pick up. Was his decline in performance due to a measurable drop in skills? Did he just hit more poorly in Washington? Or was some or all of it just luck?

The information should be there somewhere, if somebody has the tools to find it - I don't know whether Brooks Baseball or Baseball Reference has enough raw data to provide the answer.

ST competition is tricky Chuck.

I remember Shannon Stewart beat out Reed Johnson in ST a few year back. Reed J was cut.

This year the lefty in the pen is Loup without any ST competition because he is getting Arb. That is IMO. But there should be a few other pen candidates. Girado and Dermody to name 2. R Borucki and A Perdomo are lefties. Perdomo has a lot of developing to do. Borucki on the other hand has pretty good command of his assortment of pitches. But he bombed in Dunedin as a starter. And Lansing is very low. Then on the other .... other hand he really dominated Lansing. So why mess with success. Get those innings in 135 IP in 2016 and stay away from the miserable failure Dunedin was.


I don't know about the OF this year. Pillar is set. But who is really 2nd best? Within a few months, maybe 2 we will know if any of the others is not bad.

The issue with Revere is that his batted ball profile doesn't really tell us anything based on the type of hitter he is (when projecting future results). He hits a lot of singles. They either find holes or they don't. His BABIP in 2016 was .246. In the four years prior, they were .325, .344, .330, .338. With someone like Morales you can look at things like exit velocity, hard hit rate, FB rate, etc, because those things can translate the following season. With Revere, he is what he is. Last season he was hurt and had a BABIP nearly .100 points lower than his norm. I don't know what his health is like at the moment but he fits the profile of a bounce back candidate if you think his 2016 was mostly bad luck. However, one issue with him as it relates to the Jays is that Gibbons doesn't utilize the SB very often, and a lot of Revere's value comes from base running. So if he's a below average hitter and Gibbons doesn't let him loose on the bases, then it's going to hurt his value.

They could do worse than Revere in LF on a cheap one year deal. They could also do better, so that should be the goal at the moment.

nothing seems to stick out on revere's underlying stuff. his pull/cent/oppo and soft/med/hard splits seem normal.

the pitch mix and swing rates seem normal (swing and contact rates are eerily normal actually), and he seemed to be worse on all types of pitches, not just hard stuff or just breaking balls.

his line drive numbers are normal but there is a clear uptick in balls in the air and downturn in balls on the ground. that's probably a big factor in his reduced babip, but i don't think that gives us a cause or effect answer.

so let's say he stunk just because his babip fell by random chance. which normally you'd say fluke and should recover, except that his "good" years all came with a very high babip that was always expected to fall. So put his babip back up to career average (slightly above league avg) and you get an ok defensive corner OF in the 80wrc+ range.

and that's assuming last year's babip was just a fluke, and not a symptom of a talent change.

Seven years is a fluke?

It's obvious you hate Revere, but why do you love Pompey?

Isn't it obvious? Pompey is a standout minor leaguer whose "failure" in his first taste of the bigs is better than Revere's career, offensively and defensively.

Ben Revere age 23 at AAA - .702 OPS
Ben Revere age 23 at MLB - .619 OPS

Dalton Pompey age 23 at AAA - .702 OPS
Dalton Pompey age 23 at MLB - .000 OPS

I'm not really sure about the point you're trying to argue.

The only difference I can see is that Revere has succeeded at the ML level, and Pompey has not.

I don't think we can comment on Pompey's success at the major league level given the combination of rushing him and giving limited opportunities.

See better.

Ben Revere is a mediocre baseball player who does not provide "plus defense", unless you are comparing him to the statues the Jays have been playing in the corners lately.

I have no problem if the Jays add him to the mix, but it's a very reasonable stance to say that instead the Jays should just roll with Pompey for a few months to see whether he can come closer to providing a ceiling that is certainly higher than Revere's. It would be a shame if the organization buried Pompey before ever really giving him a chance because of a Ben Revere type of talent.

Does this really even need arguing? I'm assuming parker is just goading me.

Revere was arguably the worst player in baseball last year, and was never actually good.

I'm not trying to make a case that Revere is the savior of the organization.

He's not a plus defender in CF. And yeah, he had an awful 2016. That was my whole point - he could be had cheap, and he's been at least ML average for seven years. And he's only 29 next year.

I think he's a much better 4th OF than Carrera.

Would love to see Pompey as 4th ofer. He hasn't been great in AAA for the last two years but he's young enough and talented enough where he still has upside and his floor is pretty good as well. If your starting with him as a full time player, I think you're in trouble though. Jays need to upgrade. Revere isn't good though.

Look, I want Pompey to be great. Late-round pick, local boy, great story. Like whiterasta said though, he was rushed up, and he has struggled hard at the ML level except as a pinch-runner.

Pillar has a tremendous defensive advantage over him as a defense-first player, though, and Pillar has gigantic marketing advantages as well. If Pompey keeps playing good defence and the coaching staff figures out a way for him to put a decent bat on the field, he's at least an ideal 4th OF. He needs to actually show an ML bat, though. If he does, I'll happily eat Revere's hat with hot sauce. I'm not rooting against anyone; I just don't think it's in the team's best interest to count on Pompey until he shows he can contribute as anything more than a pinch-runner.

Still find the pompey hate weird.

He had a killer year at 21 and topped it off with a great September callup to the bigs.

He was then handed the starting CF job at age 22 and flopped.....for one whole month. Demoted, struggled, then turned it around, ripped it up again, and came up and had another great september callup at 22.

Then at 23 he doesn't win a starting job, has an injury riddled season in AAA, and suddenly is not worth giving a chance to anymore?

Revere's above average defensively in a corner, in all fairness. Also a very good baserunner. And a mediocre bat. He's a perfectly passable third-best OF on a team, or a really good 4th OF. It's quite possible that his early season oblique injury caused him more trouble than initially thought.

That being said, I'd prefer if the Jays pick up someone better than Revere for one spot, and use the other spot for an Upton/LHH platoon. I'd hope that Pompey could seize the LHH role (with the possibility that it expands), and use Carrera as a temporary fallback plan (with Upton getting more time in that scenario).

As for the other OF spot, that's anyone's guess at this point. A Bautista return, an Ethier buy-really-low, a surprise McCutchen trade, or a who-knows-what. That's going to be the tricky part.

Count me as someone who likes Revere more than Pompey, most other things being equal.

For Pompey, I ask "what have you done for me lately?" I see a guy who took a step back in 2016, hitting at a 702 OPS in AAA - his second year spending notable time at that level. Focusing on his three-year stats hides the fact that he has been getting worse over time, not better. A 702 OPS in AAA doesn't instill confidence in me - I think we'd be lucky if that translated to a major-league hitter of Kevin Pillar's quality. I also see a guy who the organization doesn't trust for whatever reason. I have to assume they know something we don't. His "focus" has certainly been in question.

On Revere being "never actually good," he actually has been good. Not great, but good. In the five years before 2016 he totalled 9.2 WAR, or about 2 a season. That's a useful player. I think the case can be made as well that he's a good defender at the corners, just not at center where he's clearly not great. His WAR would be a bit higher if we were not dinged for his mediocre abilities at CF. He struggled badly in 2016, but his BABIP was unusually low for a guy of his speed, and his batted ball profile to me shows that his issues might be fixable.

Neither player is a sure bet, but I'd put my money on Revere being the better player in 2016, and quite possibly by a wide margin.

Pompey's 3 mlb stints:

1. SEP '14 (21): 48pa, .308babip, 105wrc+
2. APR/MAY '15 (22): 91pa, .237babip, 63wrc+
3. SEP/OCT '16 (22): 13pa, .546babip, 236wrc+

never seen so much made out of one bad month for a top 30 prospect.

I think Revere fails the "what have you done for me lately?" test worse than anyone.

I honestly can't believe we're actually discussing bringing in revere seriously.

I disagree that Revere is above average defensively in a corner. If he is, it isn't anywhere close to valuable enough that you'd consider starting him over a pylon that can hit well. The ability to cover CF is not synonymous with being a good defensive corner OF, and I watched Revere play every day for 2 months and didn't see much there. Reminds me of Rajai Davis, who has a reputation as a good defensive OF simply because he's fast.

Pompey slipping as a prospect has nothing to do with his stints in the majors. The issue is that he has stagnated at AAA for two years, he still has upside but he isn't the prospct he as two years ago.

And no, zero interest in Revere. Would much rather go with Pompey.

He has some judgement issues, but not to the Davis or Saunders level, and his speed allows him to outrun some of his mistakes. He's not a great (or good) player, but he's normally capable of filling in a hole. Last year was obviously quite different, though, and the bet for someone would be that it was an aberration.

That said, I'm also in the Not Really Interested camp.

the only thing thing off about pompey's AAA line is the mysterious dissappearance of his power - power that has been there at A+, AA, and MLB.

but he's still posted a very good AAA OBP and managed to be an above average AAA hitter despite the complete dissappearance of his power at that level.

And i'm not even sure "stagnate" is the right word here.

He's had four stints in AAA:

1.AUG '14 (21): 56pa, .442babip, 137wrc+ (called up to mlb)
2.MAY '15 (22): 102pa, .268babip, 59wrc+ (sent down to AA)
3.JUL-AUG (22): 193pa, .364babip, 143wrc+
4.All 2016 (23): 382pa, .331babip, 106wrc+

He was just as hot in the 2nd half of 2015 at AA, AAA, and MLB as he had been the year before.

This year was definitely a step back for him, but a trio of significant injuries, some of which he tried to play through unsuccessfully, may have played a part in that.

Wasn't Pompey dealing with several injuries last year?

Pompey held his own in Lansing (2013) at age-20 while being a year and a bit year younger than average. He was a monster the next year at age-21 in Dunedin (A+) when he was almost two years younger than average. He got called up to AA and held his own in a 31-game sample. Since Buffalo didn't have anyone to play CF, he got called up again, and he was awesome for 12 games. Then he got a September callup to the big team and he showed a lot of promise against September callup pitchers. Based on that and a small sample of extraordinary defence, he was named Toronto's starting CF for 2015. When he got off to an awful start the Anthopoulos regime sent him packing, where he put up great numbers in AA and decent numbers in AAA. Since he hasn't been hitting for any power since then, and since the ML team already had an outstanding defence-first CF, he's been stuck in the minors.

Great prospects force their way onto the team, especially toolsy awesome CF defenders when they don't have to take a job away from a Mike Trout. Pompey could still do that, but he hasn't done it yet. It doesn't matter if he crushed A+ or AA pitching and made a name for himself on the top prospect lists. He either has to start dominating with the bat, or he has to make Kevin Pillar look bad defensively. Otherwise, if he's a huge prospect and not random organizational filler, the Jays aren't going to call him up just to sit on the bench as a backup outfielder.

not sure how it got changed to a pompey discussion but the bottom line for me is that bringing in revere this offseason would be a sad statement for this team imo.

I don't know what effect there will be on payroll, but Balance will suffer. Chances now are 50 - 50 that Bautista gets re-signed. Personally I think that's a mistake as Balance is too important. The Jays lost a lot of games because they were too easy to pitch to. Ross Atkins is still a rookie in my book, so anything is possible.

It comes down to depth for me. A team's 4th OF will generally play a lot either due to injury, days off, etc. The only reason to bring in a player like Revere is if all options fail and the team needs MLB bodies, and they might be in that position depending on what happens the rest of the off-season. He's not a bad player, prior to 2016 he was about a 1-2 WAR player every year. That has value, certainly more than replacement level types like Carrera. But Revere types are the guys you sign in February because there is a huge lack of depth in the OF, not someone you sign in December to take a spot. Could do way better, but could do worse as well.

As far as Pompey, I think he's better than his AAA numbers suggest (at least his upside), but I still want him to win a spot. You could always push a cheap vet to the side if a young player blossoms (see Floyd/Chavez and Sanchez last season).

I like Pompey more than Carrera.

Revere would probably get a shot a the leadoff role and he just doesn't get on base enough.
I'd rather go with Pompey and spend the difference in cost somewhere else, if it comes to that.

All the other options are still there, including Bautista.
Granderson seems even less likely now since the Mets starting centerfielder got hurt in the Dominican league recently.

To be clear I'd only be interested in Revere as a 4th OF to platoon with Upton. He'd be decent in that role, and if he came cheap it wouldn't be much of a risk. Even if Pompey did play his way onto the team (I don't think it's crazy to think that Revere could outperform him in 2017, but I also acknowledge that Pompey could be better - and hopefully he'll make that obvious from the early going) Revere could be traded or DFA'ed without much worry or cost.

However, I'll also say that if the offseason ends with our only acquisitions being Revere, Morales, and Pearce I won't be a happy camper.

Just wondering: why exactly has EE not been signed by someone yet? He did have a pretty productive year in 2016. Is his agent looking for too much ? Is it the loss of a first round pick tied to acquiring him ? Is it his age and potential injury risk ? Is it a combination of all 3 or something else ? I'm genuinely curious about this.

Career

Carrera (30): 980pa, .319babip, .314obp, 83wrc+ (78vRH, 98vLH)
Revere (29): 3035pa, .314babip, .320obp, 83wrc+ (81vRH, 88vLH)

In CF:

Carrera: 776.1in, -4.6uzr/150, -10.4drs/150
Revere: 3911.1in, +0.1uzr/150, -6.2drs/150

In corners:

Carrera: 1382.1in, +2.4uzr/150, +1.0drs/150
Revere: 2007.0in, +8.3uzr/150, +4.0drs/150


Last 3yrs:

Carrera: 575pa, .326babip, .320obp, 86wrc+ (75vRH, 125vLH)
Revere: 1635pa, .312babip, .316obp, 84wrc+ (83vRH, 90vLH)

In CF

Carrera: 224.1in, -10.9uzr/150, -36.1drs/150
Revere: 2080.0in, -2.4uzr/150, -7.8drs/150

In corners

Carrera: 1036.0in, +8.5uzr/150, +3.9drs/150
Revere: 1074.0in, -7.9uzr/150, -3.8drs/150

Likely a combination of age, position, the QO, and his contract demands. He turned down 4/80 right off the bat, so he likely wanted either five years, $100M+, or possible both. The free agent market is littered with DH/1B types, and while they may not necessarily the calibre of Edwin, they are cheaper in dollars and years (Beltran, Holliday, Morales, etc). Someone will eventually sign him, but he may have to settle for a lesser deal.

As far as Bautista, here is something from Gregor Chisholm on MLB.com:

"According to industry sources, Toronto has remained unwilling to offer Bautista more than the $17.2 million qualifying offer that he declined last month. The slugger continues to search for a multiyear deal, but he won't be getting it from the Blue Jays."

So they won't budge on the one year QO price, apparently. It will look like a smart move if Bautista eventually caves in. Jose is 36 coming off two injuries, a mediocre season, and has a QO attached to him. I'm very curious to see if any teams are willing to give him a multi-year deal at this rate. Sounds like the Jays won't even offer more than one.

Jose strikes me as very unlikely to sign for less than the QO. I don't see him eating that much crow.

Not a fan of how this offseason is playing out (Steve Pearce, seriously?) but am willing to give the benefit of the doubt seeing how well their moves last off season turned out. So I have some confidence that they know what they're doing.

But still, 2017 is shaping up to be the least excited I've been for opening day in a long, long time. Steve Pearce.

Seriously. Steve Pearce. Steve. Pearce.

"But still, 2017 is shaping up to be the least excited I've been for opening day in a long, long time. Steve Pearce."

The Jays, for maybe the fourth or fifth time in the last 20+ years are legitimate playoff contenders. How is that not exciting?

There are a few reasons why EE hasn't found a market.

1) People are wary about signing a DH to a very expensive long term contract.
2) There are worrying signs about EE declining even if his numbers are great
3) Most importantly, there are a lot of 1B/DH types out there this year for cheaper. Bautista, Trumbo, Morales, Napoli, Moreland, Pearce, Chris Carter, Holliday, Lind, Logan Morrison, etc.. It's hard to play hardball when the other side has a lot of options.

I would argue that EE did play a fairly competent first base when required last year so he is not strictly a DH. I agree with the other points that people have made, and also personally think some of the big money teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have been burned by big, multi-year contracts to hitters in the recent past ( Rodriguez, Sandoval )and are being more careful this year. Despite all this, I really expected EE to be snapped up fairly quickly and wonder if he'll regret turning down the Jays purported 4/20 offer.

The Jays are reported to be signing TJ House, a LHP from the Cleveland organization. He had an excellent season as a starter in 2014, then lost most of the 2015 season due to shoulder inflammation. Last year he was mostly at the AAA level and posted generally good numbers, except for a high BB rate. He looks like a good depth acquisition: he can compete for the LHP job in the bullpen in the spring, or can be stretched out in Buffalo as rotation depth. Shapiro and Atkins should know him well.

Taking a closer look at House's numbers at AAA last season, I'd have to admit they weren't very good at all. He had a FIP of 4.73 along with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate. But it seems to have been primarily an injury-recovery season, so the numbers should perhaps be discounted somewhat. Presumably the Jays acquired him because of his strong season in 2014 and whatever the scouts noticed from his performance last season. Still a good rotation depth option, and could compete for the bullpen in the spring.

I like the House pickup. quite a bit.


on another note, yet another rigorous statistical analysis ends up showing that Rowdy Tellez is criminally underrated: http://www.hardballtimes.com/scouting-the-minors-pitch-by-pitch-power/

I bet the stats beat the scouts in this case.

"The Jays, for maybe the fourth or fifth time in the last 20+ years are legitimate playoff contenders. How is that not exciting?"

The mere thought of being a playoff contender may have been satisfying a couple of years ago, but when the team is coming off 2 straight ALCS appearances, an AL-leading attendance figure, and massive TV numbers it is certainly not exciting watching the front office penny pinch their way around the offseason. Most franchises, when they get close to the ultimate prize, look for ways to add to the team to put them over the top; the Jays have been doing their best to just maintain the status quo, and right now they are an inferior team to the 2016 version, and with the amount of money they are reported to have left to spend that isn't going to change.

I don't believe Vegas has released the over under on the win totals yet, but my guess is the Jays right now would come in around 83.5, and you can argue the legitimacy of calling them a contender around that figure.

The Jays were on a path to becoming the Phillies. That had to change. The goal of this FO is to sustain contention, not to blow it all in one unlikely attempt to win the WS and then collapse for a number of below average seasons. Some will prefer that approach. Some won't.

The Morales and Pearce signings were good ones imo.

"The Jays were on a path to becoming the Phillies."

The Phillies had a great run and were unlucky not to win. Love what they did. And we don't have any Howard contracts to worry about, either.

But you know the real secret to why the Phillies became the sad sack phillies? It has nothing to do with spending money or trading prospects.

It's that the last quality MLB player they drafted was JA Happ - in 2004.

2004. JA Happ.

The next best player they drafted since then is...Vance Worley.

Thanks for the Hardball times link, uglyone.  It is exactly what I have been looking for- reliable aggregated minor league fly ball distances.  The author did an excellent job of showing the consistency of the minor league data, and produced reasonable translations between minor league and major league power.  I am not surprised to learn that minor league fly ball (including HR) distance is more closely correlated to major league HR rate than minor league HR rate is.

Tellez' combination of fly ball distance and youth is very impressive (for comparison sake, it might be equivalent to that of Joey Gallo- a little less distance but two years younger).  When you combine that with above-average contact ability and plate discipline, you have the makings of well-rounded middle of the order bat. 

It turns out that trading all their prospects for short term success was actually the best possible idea for the Phillies, as all their prospects flopped.

Ruin Tomorrow, Jr.

That's what went wrong with the Phillies. And yeah, there's a lesson to be learned there.

Yeah Mike - and it's especially nice to have this flyball distance metric instead of just HR rate right now since the interweb scouts created a new criticism of Rowdy this year - that he was benefitting too much from the short porch in his home RF this year.

To be honest, I'm not even sure what the interweb scouts actual criticisms of him are. They don't really seem to be able to articulate them very well.

Other than giving Morales one year more than I would have liked, I'm fine with the off-season so far. They also allegedly have $25M left to spend with a few holes left to fill, so the off-season is far from over.

The Jays are trying to maintain competitiveness short-term while continuing to build up the farm system to eventually start incorporating young talent onto the roster. Unfortunately it just happens to be a really down free agent market this winter so even with the money they have to spend it's slim pickings, but value-wise, they've done well so far.

Bautista is having trouble finding a team to give him a contract, while Edwin turned down 4/80 and may not even get that by the time he signs. Seems like the Jays are not the only team with concerns on those two as long-term commitments.

When I noticed Ruin Tomorrow Jr. coaching 1B this year for the Red Sox, I was quite surprised. I got a turnaround chuckle out of him when I thanked him for Kyle Drabek. Good times.

The power is nice, but a ton of guys hit homers off mistake pitches in the low minors. The strength is clearly there, but what impresses me is the pitch recognition - Rowdy has a tremendous BB/K ratio for his age and level and he does a great job of almost only ever swinging at strikes.

Even if he's never a consistent 40-HR threat in the Majors, there's no reason he couldn't top out as a Mark Grace type, or whoever Grace would be with with more power, a couple more whiffs, and probably poorer fielding. And if he keeps trading contact for power, he'll embarrass the Mark Grace types.

I'd take that as his ceiling in a second.

"The Jays are trying to maintain competitiveness short-term while continuing to build up the farm system to eventually start incorporating young talent onto the roster."

What is this link between not spending money on the big club and building the farm spending that you keep repeating?

Yeah, I'm not disappointed either, SK. The organization has a lot of forward momentum and a minor league system that's quickly gaining a lot of traction. I'm skeptical about the playoffs next year (or the next three years) but if the Jays keep building, I'll keep watching.

They're not making any terrible moves, and they're making a few decent low-profile ones. They're never going to have a Yankees or Dodgers budget while Rogers owns the team, which I don't necessarily agree with based on the market and brand revenue, but man, Rogers is at least doing a great job of making me forget the Interbrew days.

So, I ran a Play Index to find first basemen who at age 25 had an OPS+ between 135-150 while hitting fewer than 35 homers and striking out less than 120 times.  I got 11 names- including Mark Grace!.  Others were: Justin Morneau, Wally Joyner, Anthony Rizzo, Moose Skowron, Jason Thompson, Jeff Bagwell, Hal Trosky, Gregg Jeffries and Elbie Fletcher. 

Which raised an embarrassing question for me. Who the hell is Elbie Fletcher?  How could I not be aware of a guy who led the league in on-base percentage 3 years running at ages 24-26 and then missed two prime years to the war. I guess there is a hole in my baseball history knowledge right around 1940-2- it was DiMaggio and Williams mostly.  I had never heard of Eddie Miller until 5 or 7 years ago.

My $.02:

- Pompey's problem is that he has pretty much exactly the same skill set as Kevin Pillar, but isn't quite as good. And his defense wasn't good enough to move Saunders or Bautista out of one of the corner outfield slots. There's been no place to put him.

He is young enough to improve, but he could also be like Travis Snider and stall out. We don't really know.

- The EE situation is turning out to be a tragedy, as the Jays wanted him back, and he wanted to come back. If the off-season were to be done over again, EE's agents would have taken the Jays' offer. As it is, he will probably have to take less money for a team that he doesn't want to play for.

- Bautista will probably only sign with the Jays if all else fails. There's a possibility that all else might fail, though.

- Tellez's minor-league numbers look good so far, especially since he is so young. But it's too early to tell. He could be the next Carlos Delgado, or he could be the next Josh Phelps. We don't really know this either.

The problem is that it is impossible to tell the difference between a player who is better than 99.9% of all other baseball players and a player who is better than 99.99% of them. The differences between a replacement player and a star are small - both are exceptional athletes by almost any standard.

- I'm kinda gloomy about the Jays' off-season too, but this is a very small free-agent class. The real problem isn't that Rogers is cheap (though they might be) - the real problem is that Bautista and EE are growing old, and they're players that are hard to replace.

The Jays' farm system has been good at producing pitching prospects recently, but not so good at producing hitters. I'm not sure how much of this was luck and how much was design.

Honestly, I don't think Rogers is an issue. The Jays have spent $67.5M on Morales, Pearce, and Guirrel so far. They had a 4/80 offer for Edwin and at least a 4/60 offer for Fowler. The front office is spending money to improve the big league club, it's just that with free agency, it takes two to tango. If Edwin turns down a deal that he'll be lucky to get again, then there's not much the Jays can do about it. If Fowler gets 5/82.5 with a full NTC, do the Jays really want to go 5/90 to beat that? Value has to be factored in as well.

Don't get me wrong, if Rogers bumped the payroll up that would be great, but not signing Edwin, Jose, or Fowler really has nothing to do with that. This regime assigns a certain value to players and won't exceed it, while also prioritizing holding on to prospects. That means free agency is their best shot to add talent, and the market simply isn't good enough. They'll have to be pickier to find value, and so far, they've done well, IMO.

Dave I'd say that Tellez and Pompey have distinct advantges in their offensive profiles over Phelps and Pillar respectively, even if we can't yet count on them to be better in the end.

In the recent past, the Blue Jays spent more of their draft "currency" on pitching than position players.  Stroman was a 1st round pick, and Sanchez a supplemental (as was Syndegaard).  Pompey was a 16th rounder; Tellez was a 30th (albeit with a bonus that you might see for a much, much higher pick) and Pillar was a 32nd round pick.  High draft choices usually get more of an opportunity to succeed because of the extensive investment made by the club, both financial and "emotional". 

To put numbers on it, from 2019-12, the Blue Jays drafted 19 pitchers in the first 3 rounds and 9 position players.  In addition to Stroman, Sanchez and Syndegaard, they drafted Joe Musgrove and Daniel Norris (as well as early-round busts like Deck McGuire and Matt Smoral).  They did have a better hit rate with pitchers, and that contributed as well.  You would have guessed that one of their position players from the first round and supplementals would have made it, but none have (D.J. Davis, Mitch Nay, Jacob Anderson, Dwight Smith).  Anthony Alford was a 3rd rounder from 2012 whose development was delayed because of the two-sport thing, and may yet make it. 

The theory behind the drafting strategy seems to have been that it was easier to acquire position player talent through trade and free agency than pitching talent.  Many successful teams have not subscribed to that philosophy. 

Draft hitters. Grow the bats, buy the arms.

Sanchez, Stroman, Syndergaard, Osuna

Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki, Martin

Yeah, with the bust/injury rate of young pitchers, I'm much more comfortable with young position players and veteran arms. That seems like a much safer way to build a roster.

Here is Josh Phelps' minor league record.  At age 21, he had a very good slash line at Dunedin but his 28/104/448 W/K/PA numbers suggested a plate control problem.  At 22, he was in double A and struggled mightily, posting a .228/.305/.435 slash line with a 15/66/209 W/K/PA.  He had an excellent year in double A at age 23, but still struck out 127 times in 588 PAs. 

Tellez is a lot better prospect because he is younger and has much better plate control.

As for Pillar and Pompey,  there's no comparison between them as hitting prospects.  Pillar at age 22 was in Rookie League; Pompey by age 21-22 had already hit well in double A/triple A in over 600 PAs (through the end of 2015).  Pillar at age 23 spent most of the year in Lansing and had a brief call-up to Dunedin where he hit .322/.339/.415 with a 5/17/178 W/K/PA.  Pompey was in triple A last year and put up a .270/.349/.353 with a 40/72/383.  Even with his off-year, he is a far, far better offensive prospect than Pillar was at the same age.

Anyways, Pompey is not competing with Pillar.  He's competing with Ezequiel Carreira.  And if you're not happy to give Pompey a chance to see what he can do, and I don't mean one month, then you can't expect to develop position player talent. 

FWIW, I prefer a balanced approach to drafting.  Obviously you want the best available talent at your pick, but if there are two equivalent talents at the same place, I'd try to balance it out at about 60% position players and 40% pitchers over the years.  That way you have more options to take advantage of openings. 

I think Shapiro and his FO must do what it takes to keep their jobs. That is probably done by generating fan interest. Winning is a good way to generate fan interest as seen in the last 2 years.

Spending a lot of money and only winning 73 and 74 games probably means that you lose fans and possibly your job IMO. That happened to Beeston. Also AA's decision making powers suffered for the same reason.

The FO has to generate good fan interest on the budget supplied by the owners IMO.

Alarms will go off if the 2017 team does badly. 85-90 wins is good enough to have a sniff at the 2nd WC. I really like our rotation and Osuna to hopefully get us into that win range.

The big problem I see is an old problem. We have to play NYY, Boston, TB and Inter League a lot. This is where we lost too many games. The 10 teams in the AL Central and West don't have this schedule. So we have to be good enough to overcome this schedule.

The theory behind the drafting strategy seems to have been that it was easier to acquire position player talent through trade and free agency than pitching talent. Many successful teams have not subscribed to that philosophy.

Thanks for doing the legwork on the Jays' drafting policy that I was too lazy to do!

I'm wondering whether the theory behind the drafting strategy was that the Jays kept losing starting pitching prospects to injury, and so wanted to draft a whole bunch of them so as to have some of them survive.

Yeah, with the bust/injury rate of young pitchers, I'm much more comfortable with young position players and veteran arms. That seems like a much safer way to build a roster.

The problem with that, I think, is that every pitcher is one pitch away from a career-ending arm injury. I don't know whether it's been luck, good training, or just the weighted-ball program (do the Jays still do that?), but the Jays have had an exceptional run of starting pitching health the last couple of years. Part of this is because their veterans were Buehrle and Dickey, who were both indestructible, but part of it might have just been good fortune. (True, Stroman got hurt, but that was a leg injury, not an arm problem.)

If you spend $100 million over five years to land a premium starter, there's a real possibility that a lot of that money will be wasted.

Tellez is a lot better prospect [than Josh Phelps] because he is younger and has much better plate control.

Good point about Phelps's strikeouts. In retrospect, 2002 was even more of a red flag, as he fanned 83 times at Syracuse and 82 in the show. This probably should have indicated that there were holes in his game, but we were all too busy watching him redirect fastballs into the upper deck to notice. (Baseball Prospectus put him on their cover one year, so it wasn't just casual fans who were fooled.)

But then, you never know - Jesse Barfield struck out a fair bit in the minors (though not quite as much as Phelps) and went on to have a good career. At the end of the day, it's not how often a player strikes out - it's how well he can cover the plate and adjust to his weaknesses.

I agree with you that Tellez ranks ahead of Phelps. However, he ranks behind Delgado, who had a .430 on-base percentage and a .524 slugging percentage as a 21-year-old hitter in Knoxville (all this while still trying to learn to be a catcher). So superstardom is likely out of the question for Tellez unless he takes a big step forward.

A couple more responses to Mike's comment:

As for Pillar and Pompey, there's no comparison between them as hitting prospects.

I find it difficult to compare Pillar and Pompey based on age because Pillar was a college draftee and Pompey signed out of high school. If you use the age at which a player reached a certain level as the standard, almost any high-school player will rank ahead of a college player at some point.

If you just look at Pompey's numbers up to 2015, I'd agree that he is the better prospect. The most worrying thing for me about Pompey is that he stalled this year in AAA - his 2016 numbers are worse than his 2015 numbers. Is he getting discouraged or frustrated? Has he learned his weaknesses from his time in the majors and is having trouble adjusting?

In retrospect, it's hard to believe that Pillar was never considered a prospect - he hit for a good average at every single stop in the minors. Perhaps it's because he was a 32nd round pick - no one took him seriously. It's most amazing that he didn't even play center field full-time in the minors, given what he has become. Perhaps he has just wanted it more than most.

Anyways, Pompey is not competing with Pillar. He's competing with Ezequiel Carreira. And if you're not happy to give Pompey a chance to see what he can do, and I don't mean one month, then you can't expect to develop position player talent.

The by-the-book wisdom about developing prospects is that you don't want to bring them up until there's likely to be a permanent job open for them. (This is doubly true in the modern age, when service time is all-important.) Pompey was competing for part of the season with Carrera, but for most of the season the corner outfield jobs were filled by Saunders and Bautista.

I think when drafting, it's who you draft when that matters. Then it's work ethic, talent, skill and development that makes the difference. After that, only opportunity matters.

Sean Nolin http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolinse01.shtml and Kendall Graveman http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/graveke01.shtml were in the Josh Donaldson trade. Sean Nolin was a highly ranked Prospect while Kendall Graveman's value came as a September call-up. Who's better now?

Daniel Norris http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norrida01.shtml and Matt Boyd http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boydma01.shtml were in the David Price were in the David Price trade. Daniel Norris was a top prospect and Starter for the Jays while Matt Boyd's value came in two ugly Starts (games 76 and 81) for Toronto. Who's better now?

Prospects are necessary to the operation of the Minor League System. A few are good enough to play at the MLB level. A few more have value as trades. The rest provide employment and entertainment for millions of people. The rest is just a matter of being right.

Pompey isn't competing against Ezequiel Carrera. Pompey is a prospect who needs to get full-time playing time, while Carrera is an acceptable 4th outfielder (unless he has to spend significant time in CF) who isn't going to get any better and whose value won't be harmed by sitting him on the bench for 100 games a year.

Tellez is definitely behind Delgado as a hitting prospect, but then you can say that about almost every hitting prospect.  I am not sure that there have been 10 better in the 23 years since Delgado was 21. 

You can compare high school and collegiate prospects at least to some degree.  When a high school prospect advances quicker than a collegiate prospect, that is a powerful indicator that he is quite a bit better.  It is the reverse situation which is much more ambiguous. 

Ezequiel played almost 700 innings in the OF last year.  That is 1/2 time play.  At this point, he is slated to play more in 2017.

Pillar's defensive progression in CF is truly amazing, but let's not forget that heading into 2015 the organization considered Pompey to be the better defender, and the starting CF.

I don't think the Blue Jays planned for Bautista to miss 40 games this year. Carrera got in some work, sure, but I really hope there's no way the Jays expected to have to allow Carrera to spend 100 games in 2016 putting up Pillar-level hitting without any ability to cover all three outfield positions.

Absolutely, 92-93, on both counts.  Pillar's development defensively has been astounding.  Everything that I saw and heard in his early 20s suggested that he would be a decent defensive centerfielder and a very good corner OF.  It's extremely rare to see that kind of development at that age at a position where speed is central. 

Interesting comparing those 21yr old AA years for rowdy and carlos, actually.

Tellez: 514pa, .297avg, 12.3bb%, .090isobp, 17.9k%, .233isop
Delgado: 581pa, .303avg, 17.6bb%, .127isobp, 16.9k%, .221isop

So Delgado's advantage came pretty much entirely from his walk rate. Which is an extremely important advantage of course.

Except when you remember that the game has changed over the years - intentional walks used to be a favored tactic, but aren't anymore.

Delgado received 18 intentional walks that season, compared to only 4 for Rowdy this year. Important to note here that despite the big difference in number - Carlos and Rowdy both LED THE LEAGUE in intentional walks these years. So that would indicate perhaps more of just a philosophy change over the years than a skill difference.

Removing IBBs would bring delgado's isolated obp down to .097, and Rowdy's down to .082.

Now that .015 edge in isolated obp for Carlos is still significant, but suddenly looks pretty comparable to Rowdy's .012 edge in isolated power, and suddenly their years look extremely similar.

p.s. normally i hate using decades different raw data without adjusting for era (with wRC+) but perusing the leaderboards for those AA leagues in those years show pretty similar OPSes at the top of the league. Delgado was 2nd in his year and would have been 2nd this year. Rowdy was 5th this year and would have been 3rd in Carlos' year.

Delgado had been a fabulous hitting prospect at age 19 and 20 too.  And he was hitting monster blasts to centerfield from age 20. I'd venture a guess that he would have done even better than Tellez on fly ball distance.   

Tellez is probably a better prospect than McGriff (objectively) though.  Which gives you an idea of what his offensive "ceiling" might be. 

I'd be happy as can be with A McGriff type career for Rudy....yes I would.

Did I say Rudy..... jeepers, must be the cold weather or old age. ;)

Given that Pillar progressed to be a defensive CF, can Ezequiel Carrera be stretched out in playing CF? For example, when Pillar and Pompey need a day off CF, Carrera shall play CF. He shall then be flanked by RF Upton and LF Pearce, at this moment of roster make-up. In similar light of Carrera, Ceciliani is better off as a starter in Buffalo because he is likely not getting starter chance given playing time to Pillar, Upton, Carrera and Pompey. In the end, by hiding Pearce in LF, Morales and Smoak at 1B and DH, can we have 5 OFers already?

It is difficult to debate who should play where at this time as there are obviously going to be additions and/or changes between now and the start of the regular season.

"The Jays, for maybe the fourth or fifth time in the last 20+ years are legitimate playoff contenders. How is that not exciting?"

Is this true? Have you looked at their roster. Sure, if ja Happ continues his remarkable transformation, and Estrada does too, and everyone else plays to expectations, uhhh maybe they'll be okay I guess? What are the projections showing? .

Steve fing Pearce. I still can't get over it. Steve Pearce! Steve Pearce.

Man alive this team. Steve Pearce. This will forever be known to me as the Steve Pearce season. For Gods sakes. It's like they are trolling us. Steve Pearce, lol. Steve Pearce.

With respect to drafting more pitchers or hitters and who flame out I think you have to consider AA's trading too. It could be the case that the league as a whole overvalued pitching prospects when they are still projectable and that therefore drafting pitchers makes sense not because you develop ML pitchers and trade for hitters (although that is one strategy), but that perhaps if you draft pitching prospects, but then trade pitching prospects, you can end up with better ML talent and/or better prospects. A draft pick doesn't need to develop into a ML player to be a success. If they become a hyped prospect, and you trade them for good value, then don't develop you still had a draft win.

Not only that, but having pitchers to use as trade chits vs position players widens the field of interest - almost everybody could use more pitching, whereas having say a 2B for trade limits the scope to those with a specific need or rebuilders (those in talent-collecting mode). AA was pretty direct that they viewed the pitching as assets that they could either use for themselves or in deals. Pitchers comprise about 40% of rosters, so there's always going to be a demand.

Sure, if ja Happ continues his remarkable transformation, and Estrada does too, and everyone else plays to expectations, uhhh maybe they'll be okay I guess?

Well, Happ didn't really do anything dramatically different last year than he did the year before, overall. I like his odds of pretty much reproducing it. Estrada's a bit more iffy, but he did rebound in September after having command issues immediately following his back trouble. Of course, I'm hoping that Stroman takes a half-step forward, mitigating any dropoff those two might experience. Oh, and Liriano's not Dickey. I keep forgetting about that de facto swap. There's a bit of depth in the upper minors pitching again, which can backstop against injuries. And yeah, I'm not sure if any returnee in the lineup that was playing above their heads, except Donaldson, whose been playing above every non-Trout head for the past 4 years.

Steve fing Pearce.

As for this offseason, if Pearce is the pinnacle, I can see that being an issue. For me, though, he's a backup player that could be an above average player if he can play a full season. Of course, you don't count on him to put in a full, healthy season as a regular, but it's a nice bit of upside to have. The team's filled in most of its holes, but it still needs to add one above average OF. Best guess from me is a Bautista reunion for a year or two, but at this point, who knows. Oh, and a 7th-or-later reliever wouldn't hurt.

while AA traded a lot of pitchers, there was never a surplus. At some point, 2 aces could have dominated in the playoffs and 3 below average pitchers was enough to complete the rotation and give some some playoffs hope, but now you need one hell of a lineup to compete that way.

The Jays have inked Tampa's hitting coach as "quality control coach."
Not clear what the role intales. Maybe work with Upton?

Steve Pearce...

That's what you mutter under your breath, curled up in blankets, trying to wish the winter away, isn't it, KR? Steve Effing Pearce.

Now, if Jay Bruce ends up being the answer to the question that no one asked, I'll join you in taking brief respites from heavy drink to bemoan Jay Freaking Bruce.

".....Steve Pearce..."

This is reminiscent of the fans in November 2015 who were furiously muttering "....J.A. Happ...."

The fans assumed Happ was bad, so they assumed that the off-season was a failure.

Maybe wait for the rest of the off-season, and some on-field results, before assuming that the Front Office is "trolling" us?

"Is this true? Have you looked at their roster. Sure, if ja Happ continues his remarkable transformation, and Estrada does too, and everyone else plays to expectations, uhhh maybe they'll be okay I guess? What are the projections showing?"


I would like the Jays to add an OF bat (someone like Moss or Bautista), another reliever who can pitch late in games, and a better backup catcher as well as inviting a bunch of guys to spring who could make the team. If I would guess, I'd say the Jays are about an 82-85 win team right now. Add a couple of pieces above and that could easily be 85-90 win team.

How many AL teams are better than the Jays now? Red Sox, Astros, Indians seem to be the best. After that, are there any teams that seem better than the Jays right now? We've lived through decades of the Jays being out of it in April. This is a much better place to be.

They'll have to be pickier to find value, and so far, they've done well, IMO.

You fill your roster with "value" like Morales, you finish 4th. He's a secondary piece, this team needs another star.

Carrera is an acceptable 4th outfielder

Not on a contender, no. He appears to be one of John Gibbons' favourites, and he's occasionally come up big at important times, but overall he's just not very good at anything. Look at what other contending teams have for 4th outfielders - they're generally comparable to Melvin Upton. The Zeke Carreras tend to play for lousy teams, or in AAA.

"Man alive this team. Steve Pearce. This will forever be known to me as the Steve Pearce season. For Gods sakes. It's like they are trolling us. Steve Pearce, lol. Steve Pearce."


Am I missing a joke here? Pearce is a good player getting paid like a sub-1.0 WAR player over two years. I don't see why anyone would have an issue with the signing. Morales is probably more questionable of a move if you don't buy into his batted ball profile/exit velocity/unluckiness in 2016, but the Jays obviously do. We'll see if they are right.

More importantly, the off-season isn't over yet. They apparently have around $25M left to spend, and if they don't sign Bautista, then they'll be spreading it around a few players. The roster will look different a month from now.

"....Look at what other contending teams have for 4th outfielders - they're generally comparable to Melvin Upton...."

On paper, Upton is a better 4th outfielder than Carrera, and quite possibly he'll be a better 4th outfielder in the future.  But just for the record, Carrera's presence did not prevent the Jays from being a contending team in 2015 and 2016, and he has hit significantly better as a Blue Jay than Upton has hit in the same uniform.  Upton got 165 regular season plate appearances as a Jay and he hit terribly.  You can't blame Gibbons for giving more playing time to the guy who hit better for him.

But just for the record, Carrera's presence did not prevent the Jays from being a contending team in 2015 and 2016

By this logic I guess the Jays should look into re-signing Josh Thole.

King have you even watched Pearce play in the past couple of years? Here a perfectly fine addition. And Morales was a significant contributor to a world series champion just a year ago.

Is there a move that another team made that you would be prepared to match? For me the answer is no. So far my only disappointment is the fact that the jays don't seem sufficiently motivated to take advantage of the markets for Edwin and Joey. And that can still be rectified.

I don't want Carrera taking AB's from Pompey this year, but I think that's a bit disingenuous, Jonny. Zeke was 1.2 wins better than Josh in their limited playing time.

I don't get how it's disingenuous. China suggested that Zeke's presence was a postive towards the Jays making the playoffs. I'm pointing out that playing for a playoff team does not mean a player actually helped the team.

And as bad as Thole was, at least he had a skill that was useful to the team. Zeke's only skill is running fast, and it's not useful because he has such bad instincts (both on defence and on the basepaths).

It's debatable whether "keeping a non-star pitcher happy by giving him a personal caddy" is a useful skill, the same way "being the only guy on the team who can bunt even though bunting leads to squandering outs" is debatable as a useful skill. Thole is awful; Carrera sucks but he's not as awful.

The "he didn't prevent the Jays from making the playoffs" argument could probably be made to defend the Smoak extension, too. ;)

But hey, on the bright side, at least Koji Uehara is taking his .506 OPS vs. the Jays out of the AL East. He just signed with the Cubs, apparently.

Everyone here, including me, seems to agree that the club needs an outfielder.  It is worth bearing in mind that they do have 3 players who conceivably could be ready to play the outfield at a major league level in the second half of the year- Gurriel, Ramirez and Alford.  You wouldn't want to count on any of them, but there's a decent chance that one of them takes a step forward in the first half and is ready later.

It is a very good time to be thinking about long-term contracts and extensions.  The players I would be thinking about would be Donaldson, Stroman and Sanchez.  Stroman is arb-eligible in 2017; Sanchez in 2018.  It would be nice to spend some money now and get an option year or two at the end for both the pitchers.  The experience of Bautista and Encarnacion in free agency might take away some of its lustre for Donaldson and lead to a basis for a fair extension for both sides.  For the team, it's an opportunity to show fans that they are in it for the long haul. 

Now that the Fowler money is available to spread around, I expect the jays to be in on Ziegler & Feliz.

I do not expect this FO to sign Donaldson to a Long-term contract (5plus years).

I don't expect them to sign Donaldson either.

They apparently did offer 4 X $20 to Encarnacion.  Donaldson will turn 33 after the 2018 season when he is eligible for free agency, and so will be the same age as Encarnacion.  He's signed for $17 million for 2016 and is arb eligible for 2017.  I can see a meeting place in the middle using essentially money that was already allocated. 

There are all kinds of risks.  You do have to take some of them. 

I think the Jays will consider keeping JD if he will agree to a 3 or 4 year extension. If he wants a David Price style retirement contract, he will be dealt likely next off season although I think the FO should be talking to him now.

Should the Jays be under .500 come mid July, a trade could easily happen then no matter the signability issues. There certainly will not be a repeat of what has gone one this off season with EE.

yeah zero chance they sign donaldson. and they're probably hoping for an excuse to trade him this year.

With the new CBA, the Jays will either have to extend him or trade him. The one benefit to losing a top free agent will no longer be as valuable starting next winter. I'd be fine with extending Donaldson. He's the type of player you take a chance on in his 30's even factoring decline. Whether this front office would want to extend him for 4-5 years on top of his current team control, or whether Donaldson himself would want to sign before testing free agency are the hurdles. Both sides may not be open to it.

The 2017 season will be very important for the franchise. If they are contending, then they have to consider signing Donaldson long-term if he's open to it. If they are out of it or below .500 at the deadline, then JD has to be the first player they move. Reality is, even if the Jays make the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, they may still face a reality where they lose Donaldson for a 3rd round pick. An extension is pretty important in this case.

Whether this front office would want to extend him for 4-5 years on top of his current team control, or whether Donaldson himself would want to sign before testing free agency are the hurdles. Both sides may not be open to it.

Agreed. You never know what drives a player. It is certainly their prerogative to be driven entirely by money, using that as a scorecard for how they are esteemed (which nips in the bud fans opining that a player making 20M or 30M would have the exact same lifestyle either way). But it may be worth exploring whether being the face of the franchise carries weight for Donaldson. He has clearly been the team's best player while in Toronto, but with the likely departure of JB and EE, this could become "his" team. And an extension now, 2 years ahead of free agency, might be something he'd entertain. (Of course, I could be 100% wrong!)

Now, whether the FO will be put off by Donaldson's age, we don't know. But this is not a 2-4 WAR player we are talking about here, but rather a 7-8 WAR player. Donaldson can start losing 0.5 WAR per year and still be highly valuable into his mid and late 30's.

I ran a Play Index for Donaldson.  Between ages 27 and 30, he has over 2700 PAs and an OPS+ of 144.  I used a minimum OPS+ of 135 and minimum PAs of 2500 during that age range.  I got eight other names and Donaldson- Alex Rodriguez, Schmidt, Mathews, Chipper Jones, Tony Perez, Howard Johnson, Al Rosen and Wade Boggs.  

Johnson was already a poor defensive third baseman by age 30 and not as good a hitter as Donaldson.  Schmidt was obviously (a little) better as of age 30, but not as much as you would have guessed.  Chipper Jones was a better hitter and a lesser fielder.  Tony Perez was a little less with the bat, and a lot less with the glove.  Al Rosen was not as consistently good, but did fall off a lot at age 31. The scorecard post-33 looks like this: Schmidt- great, Rodriguez- very good*, Mathews-not worth it, Chipper Jones- very good, Tony Perez-very good, Howard Johnson-flop, Al Rosen-flop, Wade Boggs- excellent.

 When I lowered the OPS+ qualifier to 130, I got Cey, Bando, Santo and Boyer in addition.  Cey was pretty good, Bando had a great year at age 34, and Santo and Boyer were done.  I'd guess that it is a 50-50 proposition objectively.  Subjectively, I like it a little better than that.  Donaldson showed me a lot of adaptability in the 2016 post-season.  That combined with his athleticism, which ranks with Schmidt's among the third basemen here, make me more optimistic about his age 33-37 period than the average great third baseman here. 
 

Donaldson will get his money. His prime motivation will be to win.

roster updates:

Canadian Tim Collins signed with the Washington Nationals for minor league contract.
Canadian Jamie Romak signed with the San Diego Padres for minor league contract.
Marc Rzepczynski signed with the Seattle Mariners for 2 years 11M.
Matt Dominguez signed with the Boston Red Sox for minor league contract with spring training invitation.

For fun, I checked the Wins Above Replacement for age 27-30 for third basemen.  Wade Boggs is first with 33.  Mike Schmidt is second at 31.7.  Donaldson is third at 31.3.  Boyer, Santo, Mathews, Rodriguez and Buddy Bell are all over 25. 

I don't think it's fair at all to compare Donaldson to Encarnacion. Comparing him to Schmidt or Boggs? A whole lot more fair.

The front office isn't dumb, and of course Donaldson will get his money. He might get it with the Jays now that they aren't saddled with contracts like $210M to Price and the $80M Encarnacion inexcplicably turned down. And the $150M nobody was ever going to give to Bautista.

So $ 5.5 mil per year for Zep. The relief market for non elite relievers is quite expensive.

Will we ever be able to pay a Chapman or a Jansen type closer?

This FO will have decisions like this to make as the years go by.

Donaldson may have been more willing to re-up affordably if we had made a point of keeping our other stars, and martin and tulo's contract are over or just about by the time he's due his contract.

If the Jays could keep their other "stars" affordably, they would have. Encarnacion turned down more money than he's going to get anywhere else. Bautista made one of the most absurd contract demands I've ever heard as a baseball fan.

And Price wasn't a Blue Jays star player. He was a very expensive rental with a sustained history of collapsing in the playoffs.

Are you talking about Delgado or Shawn Green?

delgado green halladay price bautusta encarnacion donaldson....take your pick.

Wait, are you arguing that keeping their stars is unsustainable (Delgado's extension), that Toronto can't afford to magically turn itself into somewhere else (Green, Halladay), that signing 35 year olds to deals you might give a 29 year old is a bad idea (Bautista), that 33 year old DHs with spiking K rates might not merit a $100M contract (Encarnacion), or that rentals are sometimes short term (Price)?

Each situation is different, and 4 of those players were already on extensions (Delgado, Halladay, Bautista, Encarnacion). Green wanted to go to LA, spurring an extension if I recall right. Price was always going to go for top dollar, since he was a rental and had no real ties to the city/team. Who knows where the Donaldson situation goes. If he makes the open market, then yes, he's probably gone. There's still 2 years before that happens, though.

Each situation is different

Exactly right.  I get the angst though.  I'm cautious by nature, and this administration is a bit cautious even for my taste.  There's no need for the drop of doom, but a ride on the carousel wouldn't hurt. 

A lot of challenges going forward. The new collective agreement makes it clear that staying under $200 million is critical going forward as it is an effective cap due to the size of penalties for going over. Expect the Dodgers to start shedding payroll during 2017 if they aren't winning, and maybe even if they are.

Boston & Detroit are maxed out. The Yankees are close but not there. The Jays have effectively $60 mil of space before being into that 'oh crap' area.

Donaldson will be looking for $30 per for 7 years, but might go for 5 years if the Jays approach him this winter and have it cover his last arbitration year. His comparables on B-R are way off due to Donaldson's late start. Only David Justice was within 10 points of his OPS with only Al Rosen higher. Justice produced another 16.2 WAR over 6 seasons (126 OPS+), Rosen just 3.2 WAR.

Schmidt was the best third baseman ever. Nice for Donaldson to be in the same sentence. Over the next 7 years Schmidt got 2 MVP's and was top 10 in 5 of those 7 years. One year he missed out he was at 1B with a 149 OPS+, the other he had a 142 at 3B (his last great year).

So if Donaldson can age like Mike Schmidt then yes a 7 year deal makes perfect sense but that is one heck of a long shot to bet on.

Ricciardi forced Delgado out by repeatedly asking him to waive his no-trade clause, when Delgado wanted to stay.

Green refused to re-sign based on comments about wanting to play somewhere with a bigger Jewish community. I'm not actually going to try to run the numbers on the size of the LA Jewish community vs. the Toronto Jewish community.

Halladay signed TWO below-market extensions before he respectfully asked to be traded somewhere where he had a legitimate chance to win. A lot of people blame Alex Anthopoulos' mentor for this. Maybe it's true, or maybe it isn't. The facts remain though that Halladay was the second-best pitcher in baseball at the time. And the team that was supposed to support him was made up of star players like Shea Hillenbrand, Ted Lilly, Lyle Overbay, and Alex Rios. Vernon Wells was there too, but that front office decided to offer him one of the worst contracts in baseball history A YEAR BEFORE HE BECAME A FREE AGENT.

Price was brought in specifically to help the Jays win the World Series, and he did everything he could to make the Jays wish Josh Towers was starting in playoff games.

Bautista went public with some utterly absurd comments about how much he was worth after he was somehow forced to give the Jays a discount on his last contract, and the Jays played much, much better during the time he was injured last season.

Encarnacion was offered a very fair deal and turned it down... and now he's going to have to settle for a lot less money somewhere else.

I'm not sure why you're including Donaldson in this group. He hasn't been treated like garbage by an awful GM, he hasn't made any ridiculous claims to the media, and he's played for a team that has made the playoffs each year he's played for them, and he's been provided a ton of cost-effective support.

"A lot of challenges going forward. The new collective agreement makes it clear that staying under $200 million is critical going forward ....”

John, at this time of beneficence and good cheer (haven’t you noticed it all around?), will you do us a favour?  Please stop using “going forward” to mean “in future”.   It’s corporate weasel-speak, beloved of out current front office and all their business-school ilk.

Thanks and Happy Holidays.

Green refused to re-sign based on comments about wanting to play somewhere with a bigger Jewish community. I'm not actually going to try to run the numbers on the size of the LA Jewish community vs. the Toronto Jewish community.

Really?  Was that it?  I thought that he just was offered more money elsewhere, and of course, was raised in SoCal in a non-observant way. 

"I'm not sure why you're including Donaldson in this group. He hasn't been treated like garbage by an awful GM, he hasn't made any ridiculous claims to the media, and he's played for a team that has made the playoffs each year he's played for them, and he's been provided a ton of cost-effective support."

he gone.

Really? Was that it? I thought that he just was offered more money elsewhere, and of course, was raised in SoCal in a non-observant way.

I didn't mean to imply that Green left specifically for that reason. I doubt anyone really thinks he left for that reason. He did however make comments to the media in that regard, though. Maybe the Jays organization played it up on those comments because they didn't want to offer enough more money than it would cost to keep him from the Dodgers. I'd guess though that Green wanted to leave because he got a chance to play close to home for a ton of money, and that the Jays weren't offering enough to chance his mind, and also that they weren't going anywhere in the late 90's. If I was Green, I would've signed with the Dodgers too.

he gone.

After this kind of response, you really need to never call me a troll, ever again.

i've never called you a troll.

Heh. I've used 'going forward' for years and never thought of it as 'corporate weasel-speak'. I'll try to use 'in the future' more though.

So for Donaldson what would be fair? 5 or 7 years or other? What should he be after? Fangraphs says he was worth $60+ mil each of the past 2 years. So 5 @ $30 per should be a no-brainer then ($150 mil he could pay off in just 2-3 years) with a 7 @ $30 per being worth considering ($210 mil which could be done in as little as 4 years).

As with the present FA's, term not so much $$$ will be the issue. On the one hand, the new QO system makes it more likely he will be traded but if he is taking note of how players in their 30's are being viewed in the marketplace, he may be more open to staying. I would not give him more than 4 years beyond his free agency however.

26 year old Machado will be looking for a 10 year contract while 33 year old Donaldson will have to settle for considerably less.

It really depends on Donaldson there. Maybe the Jays can manage a one year extension by spreading the money across 2 years. Maybe they trade him early if someone makes a decent offer. Although I don't know what team would be in the position to make that deal.

Oh how soon BJ Ryan is forgotten, perhaps because he goes by Melvin or Norbert now?

If recalling accurately enough, comments on uglyone's idea on reliever were that non elite relievers can be had for near league minimum salary. If so, shall the Jay
1) attach a $ value on non elite reliever as a group
2) sign non eltie relievers who best complement the roster makeup
3) let them perform in spring training to find a fitting configuration

Basically, throw and see what and who hold on.

i've never called you a troll.

After all the time you've spent alternating between putting together data tables to prove that the Jays are better than every other team and bitching about how badly they're failing, have you ever even wondered why you're a Blue Jays fan at all?

The Dodgers have a much bigger payroll and a lot of talent that they're spending a billion dollars to hang onto, and Alex Anthopoulos has some kind of front office job with them. The Red Sox are the team you constantly attempt to manipulate statistics against to show how much better the Jays are, when they're not, and to top it off they stole David Price away from the Jays. The Yankees have half a dozen league-minimum stars and a humongous payroll. The Cubs are the Red Sox team two years from now and they just won the World Series.

Honestly, isn't there some other team's fan forums you could pollute with your statistical manipulation and ad hominem attacks?

I think people are overestimating the value of a comp pick.  Last article I read was on Fangraphs that pegged the value at $10 million.  Significant, no doubt, but not so significant as to make us avoid a value deal like Bautista or EE represent at this point in the offseason.  Bautista's ask in the Spring wasn't so crazy at the time- he was one of the elite hitters in the league.  Of course it looks bad after his poor, injury-riddled season. 

Are we seeing a new market inefficiency in veteran sluggers with limited D?      

Dave Cameron on the Morales deal:  "I won’t knock them for not predicting that Encarnacion’s market would dry up, but rushing to sign Morales was silly".

I agree with Mike Green that this FO is too cautious.  IMO, their best deal was for Gurriel - their most creative move thus far.  I miss the creativity and aggressiveness of AA - his only deal that is a clear fail to me is the one for Dickey, and I don't even dislike that as much as many posters here do.  And if you don't take risks, you don't score homeruns like the Donaldson deal.  Swing for the fences.

Stoeten has one of his best articles in months up at Vice sports (awesome site for a variety of reasons).  He speculates on the possibility that the FO is gunning for a rebuild, and even backs off from some of his hostility towards fans worried about the direction the new FO team is taking. 

https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/why-a-blue-jays-rebuild-could-be-coming-soon

I don't dislike our current management, but some of the criticisms people made during the transition from AA are looking pretty reasonable right now. 

BTW Parker, it was me calling you a troll, not Ugly.  But I've publicly committed to giving up on that! 

Since Dewey is around, I've been as careful with my post as I can manage at the moment.  That's a good thing Dewey, even if I may have dropped the ball! 

Given past history here with expensive relievers vs kids and AAAA types I'd be tempted to just do the cheap and cheerful method going forward, once they reach free agency go make your fortune elsewhere but otherwise enjoy the cheap years.

2016 cheap: Biagini, Grilli (Atlanta sent cash as well and only took Sean Ratcliffe - a reliever in rookie ball), Tepera (19th round pick years ago), Floyd ($1 mil flop), and of course Osuna

2016 expensive: Chavez (traded for Liam Hendriks, $4 mil), Cecil ($3.8), Storen ($8.4, cost Ben Revere, later traded for Benoit which worked out very nicely)

That covers all with 20+ innings. The crappy cheap ones were given very short leashes and were dumped with no fear, the crappy expensive were given chance after chance until the Jays could take no more.

My question with the current FO is could they have done more this winter even if they had $200 mil to spend?

Yoenis Cespedes ($27.5 per over 4), Aroldis Chapman ($17.2 per over 5), Dexter Fowler ($16.5 per over 5) - there goes 2 draft picks and $61.2 mil a year. Killer outfield, sweet 1-2 punch in the pen, but still weak at 1B/DH and no backups added. Instead Kendrys Morales ($11 over 3), Pearce ($6.25 over 2) = $17.25 with lots of space left over for others and only 5 total years between them vs 14 for the 3 mentioned earlier.

I think the FO is trying to keep the team respectable while they build up the minors some more. Hoping for a strong young core going forward. I could see long term deals to sign Donaldson, Sanchez, Pillar, Stroman, and Osuna. Donaldson hits well enough that if he had to move to 1B/DH he would still be valuable. Pillar is a pure defense guy. Pitchers are always a crapshoot but those 3 show the ability to really lock this team down lock term.

The few really good prospects, Tellez, Vlad Jr, Sean Reid-Foley, Alford, Urena wouldn't be blocked by any (technically Vlad at 3B is but by the time he is ready Donaldson probably moves to 1B/DH anyways with Tellez at DH/1B as well). Tulo and Martin are the only really signed long term guys right now so it is easy to imagine a few more happening, maybe during the season after long talks with agents and short ones here and there with the players. Perhaps signing during the All-Star break to give the fans a boost if the team is back a bit.

Love the optimism John, but there is no reason to think this FO isn't looking to save money IMO.  Not build up the minors (our farm's fine, and for some reason, the most successful drafting team we've ever had has been dismantled for unproven talent), not establish a strong young core going forward (if cost efficiency is the goal - and the Cleveland model - than lock up our young talent to extensions).

We have value deals with EE and Jose sitting in our laps, and we are playing hardball? 

To quote Andrew Friedman ,"If you're always rational about free agents, you will finish third on every free agent".  Yep, the Dodgers have more resources, but the difference between us is exaggerated. 

We may not have elite prospects, but we have good depth, and a rising system.  We may not have unlimited resources, but we have a huge market, which is also rising.  We have good major league talent, and a two year playoff streak.  If this isn't the time to spend, when is? 

Perhaps that's why I sit in the 500s, I prefer not to think this game is quite so corporate. 

Before we go down the rabbit hole again, can I ask Parker and ugly one to ignore each other for the next 24 hours, at least. The language is getting to the line, if not over it.

ad hominem attacks? wat?

I've never attacked anyone here. Least of all you.

That's what you do. You have non stop attacked me for months now.

The comp pick is significant enough to hesitate on a Bautista signing. If you tack on the ~$10M value associated with the pick to whatever Bautista would get in 2017, then it's a pretty big commitment for a 36-year old player with a bum shoulder and limited defensive value. Whether losing the extra pick is worth it based on where the team is on the win curve is another story; that's up to the FO to decide. They were willing to do it for Fowler and Edwin, but apparently not for Jose. Ultimately, losing a pick for a one year deal attached to an older DH type is possibly the hold up on the Jays end, if it isn't some other deep rooted issue that is preventing a deal from occurring. They clearly do not want Jose for more than one year by the sounds of it.

As far as the front office's direction, I think it simply comes down to improving the farm system to the point where the Jays can start incorporating young/cheap talent onto the roster, while also trying to take advantage of the next two season's with Donaldson under team control. Their way of doing it is holding on to prospects, hoarding draft picks, and adding wins via free agency with short-term vets. I think that's a logical way to go about it. The Indians big moves last winter were Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli. If the Jays add 2+ win players in both OF corners and a solid late inning relief option, then they should be right in the thick of the WC race with a few other teams (assuming the Red Sox are in a class of their own in the East, which is likely, but remains to be seen). Keep improving the system while competing on the big league level is the right way to go. The Jays system at this time next year with upwards of 3 first round picks, an entire draft, and a full minor league season of progression/development from existing prospects, should take another leap forward. I think realistically you might see Pompey and Tellez in big league roles in 2018 (assuming no setbacks for either player), but the cream of the current farm is in the lower/mid minors, so it will be a bit of a process.

P.S. "going forward" > "in the future". Makes no difference either way, but sounds better.

I don't think anybody in the FO knows anything about Shawn Green.
That was like 20 years ago.

SK, define 'logical'.  Is that a wildcard position next year?  A shot at one?  A top ten farm system?  Don't we arguably have that?  

Cleveland was good last year with that 'logical' model, after wandering in a mediocre wasteland for years.  The Cubs had a mixture of logic and money - arguably, the way we could.  The Giants, who have won a lot these years, have had an 'illogical' approach. 

We all have different versions of this free-floating term 'logical'.  My prediction, as of this moment, is that this Jays team disappoints next year, without rapid improvement on the horizon.

People keep pointing to Happ and Estrada as evidence of how value-conscious this FO is.  Happ was a great move, in retrospect.  the Dickey option a poor one.  Smoak?   Estrada was basically handed to them given his Rich Hill like emergence.  Grilli was given to  us, as was Benoit, and we gave Liam Hendricks away, along with $4 million.   It's not even like our pen was good last year, outside of Osuna.  

Time will tell, but I don't think these FO guys are onto a value formula with FAs (or with drafting).  I think they had a great team last year and got lucky with Happ.  A value approach would require flexibility - EE and Jose have both had their market's crater with no moves from our guys, despite their professed 'willingness' to sign them. 

Sign one or both of these guys, at deeply discounted prices, and you show flexibility and creativity.  Right now, I fear they are revealing a lack of interest, from the outset, in either player.  Despite all the things they have said about bringing them back.  It looks bad!

December 12, 2016. Canadian Tim Collins is still around and signs with the Washington Nationals for minor league contract. Tim Collins was Battersbox' top 30 prospect in 2008 and 10th in 2009. I guess anybody in the FO does not know anything about Tim Collins. That was 7 years ago.

That's why having a record on the web like this battersbox is so important. I would like to guess the FO would search this website.

Logical meaning they made the playoffs the last two seasons with a resurgence in attendance/fan interest and it makes more sense to try to win short-term while still building up the system than it does to either trade prospects for short-term gain or trade veterans for prospects. If they are out of it at the deadline next season, then that direction changes. What they've done so far, in 2016 and now, was exactly the way they should have gone from a direction standpoint. There was a window to win in 2016, and they got close but came up short. Now they'll have to retool a bit with JB/EE leaving.

As far as "value" free agents; Estrada had a unique profile (weak contact) and Happ had two months of elite performance due to a mechanical adjustment in Pittsburgh. Morales had a very strong hard hit profile in 2016 that was masked in KC, while Pearce has provided a ton of value in lower amounts of playing time due to injury or not being used enough. Those are pretty much the definition of value signings where there are perceived risks (age, sample size, whatever), but the cost is appropriate to the value of the player while there's a bit of upside involved as well. That doesn't mean they'll do well with each player they sign, but there's clearly some sort of thought process behind those signings. The only move they made so far where I did not see any logic was the Smoak extension, but if that's their worst move, then I'll take it. I'm still iffy on Morales, especially the third year, but the batted ball profile gives me at least a bit of hope for 2017.

If they didn't have Donaldson or what is projected to be a well above average rotation and were making these incremental improvements, then the value of the signings would cease to exist. However, at least for the next two years, the value of the wins they do add mean a lot because there might be a window to contend for a WC spot or even the East if the Red Sox don't play as well as I expect them to. If that fails, then you trade vets. That's where the Jays are right now. They don't need to go in one extreme or the other just yet. Let the performance dictate the direction, but right now, add wins wherever you can within the budget they have. That's what they've been doing. We'll see if it works.

SK, i still think I disagree, but well said. 

I guess we are at the point of the offseason where we are all just speculating to some degree.  I do hope you are right though!

 

Cleveland model is nice and all, but what happens to the Indians last year if they don't trade for Miller at the deadline? and does Shapiro ever make that trade if he's still there?

I just chipped in about J.D. Martinez, born August 21, 1987. He showed outliner Double-A 2011 aged 23 season when he was approaching the tie between walking and being struck out. Then he was promoted to the National League Astros same season with which he exhibited his usual performance of being struck out more. Not to mention his time on the DL as an Astros, Eventually his 2015 aged 27 MLB season was typical of his commonplace homerun power and being struck out: 38HR, 178 SO. Jays'  2016 Michael Saunders, born almost a year earlier, hit 24HR and 157 SO.

Jeremy Hermida, born January 30, 1984, had that kind of outliner Double-A 2005 aged 21 season with the Marlins when he was actually walking more than being struck out. The Florida Marlins promoted him similarly to the Astros' transaction; Hermida never repeated that outliner performance in MLB, MiLB or Japan in 2015. All three hitters can hit HR but also injury prone.

I don't really want to see Saunders back. He strikes out way too much, sucks in the field, and isn't likely to hold up over a full-season.
Why trade for an OF to whom a free agent OF to date and the Jays' 2016 batter are similar?

The Jays have inked Tampa's hitting coach as "quality control coach." Not clear what the role intales. Maybe work with Upton?
On paper, Upton is a better 4th outfielder than Carrera, and quite possibly he'll be a better 4th outfielder in the future.... Upton got 165 regular season plate appearances as a Jay and he hit terribly.
Putting those similarities aside, may Saunders perform an outliner MLB season in which he approaches or excels over a tie of walks and being struck out with helps from that coach, along with Upton? In other words, do you retain 2 strong 4th OFers candidates and coach them to be better? I do not know if Eric Thames is anything similar but Thames said in quotes, ""Obviously, during my career there have been coaches, organizations and GMs that have given me the cold shoulder," Thames said. "That fuels me but I also have to focus on what my goals are. I want to play every day, stay healthy and help this team win." Coaching creates wonders in hitters: JoeyBats was an example.

"This is reminiscent of the fans in November 2015 who were furiously muttering "....J.A. Happ...."

Yeah, and I'll admit to being one of those fans. As I said in my post I am trying to give them the benefit of the doubt because of that but I don't really think lightning will strike twice.

This is two straight off seasons of dumpster diving coming off their most prosperous years in recent history. It is shameful. Shameful. I mean Steve bloody Pearce. Steve Pearce for Gods sake. And we're sitting here and taking it. We should all be embarrassed and ashamed of ourselves.

yep.

last year I was mad.

this year i'm just sad.

Encarnacion was offered a very fair deal and turned it down... and now he's going to have to settle for a lot less money somewhere else.

Why does Encarnacion get blamed for this situation while Shapkins get a free pass? Both mis-read the market. EE will have to settle for a lesser contract because the Jays settled for a much lesser player.

How did the FO misread the market if Encarnacion hasn't gotten a better offer elsewhere ? Sure they could have sat back and done nothing while waiting for EE to circle back to them but that's a risky strategy. I'm not in love with management, just looking at it objectively and saying that I wouldn't give Edwin more than 4 years or 20 million a year either. Maybe the additions so far seem underwhelming but the offseason is far from over.

How did the FO misread the market if Encarnacion hasn't gotten a better offer elsewhere ?

They misread the market in not realizing they'd be able to get EE at their price if they just waited another week or two. And quite possibly they misread the market in giving Morales 3 years instead of 2.

Sure they could have sat back and done nothing while waiting for EE to circle back to them but that's a risky strategy.

Not really. You miss on EE, you go sign Morales. You miss on Morales, you go sign Brandon Moss. You miss on all of them, you go sign a 1-year deal with Mike Napoli or Pedro Alvarez or Dae-ho Lee or Adam Lind - those guys are all worse than Morales but the fact you can get them on a 1-year deal makes them very non-risky.

Maybe the additions so far seem underwhelming but the offseason is far from over.

There were 2 premium free agents that fit the Jays beautifully: EE and Dexter Fowler. They're not coming to Toronto, so who is? Given management's apparent refusal to trade any good prospects, how are they going to acquire a premium talent? The only path I see is swallowing bad contracts.

The front office has done pretty well in it's first year, adding players like Estrada, Happ, Biagini, Liriano, Benoit, and Barney. The organization has made a few questionable moves as well, but their track record overall has been good. I'm not inclined to start criticizing them until I see more evidence of poor management. And I have no problem with their taking the long view -- going "cheap and cheerful," as John suggests. I would not have spent $90m on Fowler.

Thanks John N for showing us and comparing the cheap and expensive relievers in our 2016 pen.

You summarized well. "Crappy cheap on short leashes and crappy expensive got chance after chance until the Jays could take no more".

That is a great philosophy.

So if I analyse this a veteran has to be given chance after chance, to avoid a negative clubhouse OR traded with cash to end the "chance after chance". That was Grilli in Atlanta.

The thing about Morales is, he might put up just as big a number this year as Edwin.

The problem is, my wife and kids won't give a shit. They like the Parrot. They want the Parrot.

That is who is paying the money, not us diehards that post on baseball forums that will watch no matter what happens.


Go get the F'n Parrot.

What (I think) happened with EE is that when he turned down their offer, the Jays' front office assumed that EE would sign for big numbers elsewhere, possibly as David Ortiz's replacement in Boston. And so they moved as quickly as possible to land somebody.

I can see Morales's obvious shortcomings, but I can also see these road numbers from 2016:

EE: .246/.342/.492, 12 2B, 22 HR, 61 RBI
Morales: .250/.314/.482, 10 2B, 18 HR, 44 RBI

Morales walks less, but otherwise there's not that much difference. I'd rather have Edwin, but it could work out.

Whoever finally gets EE needs to know this: he's a slow starter. He hit poorly in April in each of the last three years. His new fans and front office will need to be patient.

My old lady hates the parrot. We might not make it to every home game, being that we live in Calgary, but when we're in Toronto a couple times a year, Rogers gets a lot more than their money's worth out of us.

I'm not saying everyone should hate the parrot. I'm just saying not everyone loves it.

Polly wants a homer.

I can easily understand why the club would actually prefer to sign Morales for 3/33 than Encarnacion at 4/80.  They might reasonably believe based on the exit velocity/angle data that he is, right now, as good or nearly as good as Encarnacion and that the wRC+ difference will not be maintained in the coming years.  I can appreciate the signing of Pearce and the belief that Tellez will make a nice complement later in the season. 

We'll see where they are with an OFer when spring training arrives.  It would be a shame to save money at the 1B/OF slots and not be able to effectively use the saved money in the OF where the club needs it. 

The FO, nor anyone else it appears, wants to pay for the parrot's inevitable decline given it's age and one dimensional nature. I am sure prospective suitors are also taking into account that the play of many such birds falls off (often dramatically) after receiving retirement contracts.

There was a study published in August on the top 10 FA by $$$ signed last off season with a conclusion that 9 out of 10 underperformed their contracts. Buyer beware.

I think they view Morales as a 120 wRC+ bat due to exit velocity/batted ball profile/launch angle, etc. He had a low BABIP against RHP last season and that was a big reason for his performance dip, so there's a bit of a "buying low" aspect with him.

They got Morales and Pearce for less than what they offered Encarnacion, and they may envision getting more wins for the $ spent using that strategy while also having money left over to add pieces elsewhere.

I'd feel a lot better about the Morales batted ball data if we had a multi-year data set to look at.

"There was a study published in August on the top 10 FA by $$$ signed last off season with a conclusion that 9 out of 10 underperformed their contracts."

You kind of expect them to underperform their contracts. But underperforming your contract is not the worst thing in the world.

I am with MG and others who want the FO to take more risk. I hope it is because of the current situation and not an unwillingness to do it.

I think you're going to need to do that in the AL East. The Red Sox have built a very strong foundation. The Yankees look like they will improve too (better farm and old players coming off the books). If we don't take more risk in the future, we'll end up where we were before; good but not good enough.

Sometimes you don't need all that data to make some kind of a judgement on a player though extensive data still helps. But the eye test is still valid as well. Apparently Jays scouts liked Morales a lot. I always liked him as a hitter and was hoping 2 years back that Jays would buy low on him and trade EE. I am not saying that he is as good as hitter as EE, but the combination of stats, eye test and contract value suggests that he is a much more cost effective option going forward.

As for the constant degrading of Smoak, allow me to say that offensively the eye test does not look good on him and I have cursed on him more than once. There are stats, however, that show him to be not as much of a lost cause as some think. Stoeten had a piece on him a few days back showing just that.

But what is surprising to me is that there are so many who do not realize that he is simply a place holder for Rowdy Tellez and do not realize that the FO has NO intention of signing a left handed hitting 1b. This should be obvious.

The bullpen, to the chagrin of many, will be cobbled. I don't think there will be any big $$$ signings in this area, even for a lefty. Last season, many thought we were set with Storen, Cecil and Chavez and look how that turned out. I believe the collective 3 lost 12(or close) games in the initial 6 weeks. Without half of those losses, Jays may have won the East.

Bring in as many candidates as possible and bring the best ones in ST north. We have more in house options as well than many think. I would prefer to see Biagini as a 6th starter in Buffalo as that will be needed at some point and even more so in 2018. However, if the cobbled approach fails and the pen does not look good coming out of ST, Biagini can be redeployed there if necessary.

The sky isn't falling. There will be more signings but they will be of the same value nature as the first two and will likely not happen till January although something next week is not out of the question.

I just chipped in about J.D. Martinez, born August 21, 1987. He showed outliner

Hey, cybercavalier - I think they word you're looking for here is: outlier. Cheers.

The Jays will be in better position to make moves for the players they most want (as opposed to the handful of free agents that potentially fit their needs this off-season) once the farm system is more robust.

Not signing Fowler stings, but as mentioned above, I would not have paid the $90m or so it would likely have taken to bring him to Toronto.

I think the main difference between Shapiro and fans is that he's taking the long view and fans (naturally) want to maximize their chances of winning in the short term.

The fans want to take the short view because through long experience they know exactly how rare it was to have a team this good, and how futile taking the longview often can be.

They'll be some other quirky fun thing that people come up with if Morales hits.

Maybe he's "cluch" and 2017 becomes the team of "More-rallies". I don't know, but to be guided by last year's trend is foolish. Win and they will come in Toronto. That's about it. Winning the offseason might be splashy (see 2013) but that was quashed quickly by reality.

It is unusual for a club to take primarily a long view coming off two straight playoff appearances with attendance to match.  There is nothing unusual with taking a balanced (short-term and long-term) view.  Management has done a number of things that were geared at the long view- the acquisitions of Ramirez, McGuire and Gurriel leap to mind- and it doesn't seem unreasonable to anticipate a comparable effort towards the short-term. 

I don't understand your definition of fan. I accept that there are some fans who might have this thought, but how many fans do you believe that are out there who have this thought?

Personally, I think the view you describe tends to come from fans who wish the Blue Jays spent like the Yankees of the 00s. There is a call each and every year for the team to sign the biggest name available. To name three off the top of my head calls for Zito, Teixeira, and Harden are memorable. This year is different because two of the biggest out there are Jays. The one comp that I can think of that is similar is AJ Burnett after his opt-out.

Agreed Christayler. Win and they will come.

This FO values depth.

Good things happened last year in a lot of cases. Sanchez for 1. Then the bad Storen.

If the pen is good, I don't care if it is made up of unknowns.

Of course free agents underperform their contracts. That's not breaking news. But so what? An underperforming player could still be one of your best players, which is all that matters. Sometimes if you want something good you have to overpay for it, else you end up with a team full of mediocrities who are all performing exactly to their cheap price tag.

Last I checked, baseball still doesn't have a hard salary cap. Last I checked, the Blue Jays payroll is still well short of the soft cap that does exist. Last I checked, the Jays were owned by Rogers communications who, last I checked, makes about a billion dollars every 5 minutes* and received record profits from the Jays last year and the year prior.

So what's the problem? So the Jays might end up paying 20m for a guy who is only a 15m player. So? You'd rather pay 5m for a guy who performs like a 5m player? Why?

It's going to be so wonderful when every player plays to their contract and nobody underperforms their value village price tag. The Jays will be the only team to not have any overpaid players! Huzzah. It sure was fun making the playoffs though.

*don't check my math.

It's OK to strategically overpay for certain players (Martin is a good example). But you can't go crazy and whip out your wallet every time a Choo or Leake or Sandoval or Ramirez or Heyward hits the open market. That's a good way to ensure mediocrity, unless you have a payroll in the $200m range.

"But what is surprising to me is that there are so many who do not realize that he is simply a place holder for Rowdy Tellez."

For me the issue is that I think we can find players who fill Smoak's role (part-time 1B / DH who can't hit curveballs) on the scrap heap during the offseason / spring training. No need to give them 2 year extensions, thereby forcing yourself to construct a roster with them in mind.

I had hope going into 2016 that Smoak could outperform expectations (there were similar articles written then) but those dreams have died hard. He was worth -0.1 WAR last year despite a .295 BABIP which is a fair bit above his .262 lifetime BABIP. He struck out at an ungodly 32.8%, the highest level of even his relatively strikeout-y career. If he becomes the next Jose Bautista I'll eat my shirt. Best case scenario is a Juan Fransisco-like hot streak.

Anyways, I hope we have something new to talk about soon.

Last I checked teams with big budgets and big contracts seldom win? When did the Yanks or Dodgers last win? Boston has been in last place 2 of the last 4 years. The Angels have 2 of the game's highest priced players, one of them signed to the most stupid FA contract in recent memory. Where r they in the standings?

Cleveland made it to the WS last year on a small budget and KC won the WS the previous year with the same. What wins is smart management combined with good consistent player development. A larger budget helps but is useless without the management.

Overpaying for FA'S does not help you to win. If anything, it makes you more likely to lose. There is only one way to build a consistent winner and that has never changed. Yes, you need to augment with the right FA at a critical time but that is entirely secondary. The reason the Jays are signing some FA's now instead of trading is to preserve their prospects. The FA's are only on short term deals as they are only stop gaps.

Overpaying for FA's only comes back to bite you in the ass and it doesn't take long for that to happen. Last I checked that hasn't changed and I doubt that it ever will.

Not a lot happening right now.

I wonder how little it would take to get Brett Gardner. He's been playing mostly in left, hits left and gets on base.
The Yankees are desperate to move him to free some salary cap space and Baltimore is interested but doesn't want to play his whole salary.

I don't really see much of a market for Bautista. Baltimore and Texas hates him. The Rockies already have an outfielder at 1B, but if they could trade Blackmon they'd probably be better served with Trumbo. Cleveland would be a nice fit but would they give away a draft pick? And they're not going to pay him more than the QO.

I imagine you could get Gardner for very little but I don't think Yanks would trade him to Jays. With players like this including Jay Bruce, you have to wait until the trading team fully realizes that they can't get a return and will be happy to just lose the contract. Might not happen with Gardner, but it will happen with Bruce though it will likely be necessary to wait a bit.

Bingo Bpoz - AAAA guys you can cut the cord with quickly and no one cares. $7 million relievers though you hold onto and hope they become what they once were no matter how illogical it is. Grilli was expensive for Atlanta and they kept giving him chances but it didn't work so they dumped him on Toronto basically paying his contract and getting garbage in return (rookie ball reliever).

In 2017 we will probably see Loup, Tepera, Schultz, Girodo, Barnes, and many others in spring get real shots at the back end of the pen (not sure if any were released). Pen locks are Osuna/Grilli and maybe Biagini (unless put in AAA as a starter). That leaves a lot of slots.

Out of options: Mike Bolsinger, Bo Schultz both of whom are very solid candidates for the pen.

Others out of options (non-pitcher category): Ryan Goins, A.J. Jimenez, Ezequiel Carrera all of whom could easily be on the bench in 2017.

Was that a serious question? The cubs won *this year* with a 200m payroll that included 22m for an awful Heyward and millions in retained salary. The red sox won in 2013! They can afford an ooopsie contact here or there because they are so deep. What matters is having good players, not players who are pretty good considering we got them at the dollar store.

But yeah okay. The Royals won that one time so I guess that's that.

Gardner is worth 3-4 WAR. Bruce is worth 0-1 WAR.

The Yanks wants to move Gardner now, so they can sign more pitching.

I'd only take Bruce if he came with a good prospect and the timing for that is all wrong.
There's many superior options that would cost less including Carrera.

When you want claim that it's okay for a free agent to underperform his contract, shouldn't you qualify that by stating your opinion on exactly how much it's okay for a player to underperform his contract?

If 1 WAR is worth $8M a year, allowing for every other player in MLB who hasn't yet reached free agency, how much is it okay to overpay for a free agent? $15M per WAR? $25M per WAR?

At what point does it not become okay to overpay free agents?

Sorry, that should read "when you want TO claim".

Has there ever been a World Series winner without any mistakes or overpayments on their roster?

Aside from using that to support argument, from a more subjective standpoint it seems like pointing out the mistakes of winning teams is the most awful kind of Monday-morning quarterbacking. Those teams still won. They still won.

Maybe they got lucky, but did the teams they beat not have a single awful contract or bad player on their rosters?

$/war is meaningless.

Suppose you are choosing between two players. The only options are a 1 war guy or a 5 war guy. I want the 5 war guy. I don't really care if the first guy gives you better $/war value. Why would anyone but ownership care about that?

As long as you have the money (and this team has PLENTY) it shouldn't really be a concern.

To recycle an old phrase, you pay for 1 war, you get 1 war...

And I'm not saying they should just do whatever it takes. You get into a bidding war and lose, that's fine. The attitude is what bothers me. Not even making David Price an offer when his agent says he wanted to stay. Refusing to move off Bautista's QO to make some sort of point, rescinding the offer to Edwin because well golly, we have Steve Pearce now and we can't possibly afford both. Shucks!

If they would just make an honest attempt and be a player at the table I'd be satiated. That they act like can't afford the buy in so they are just going to stick to the penny slots is what bothers me.
.

Sorry, the Pearce slots.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating bad signings. I'm just saying that no championship team has zero bad signings.

That really, REALLY doesn't mean I think any team should go out of their way to make bad signings. Or that those bad signings should be used as an argument for or against future signings. Hayward might bounce back. Or he might just keep playing outstanding defence and hitting like Kevin Pillar. Based on his history, though, I'd guess there's a chance he'll bounce back. And condemning the Hayward contract after one season seems a little premature.

I've been wrong before, though.

Well, if you really want to get into it, check out how much better the Jays played when Bautista was on the DL.

You could extrapolate those numbers over an entire season, and the Jays don't even make the playoffs as a result of it.

You could, but it would be dumb so why would you do that?

The rational argument based on screaming about Steve Pearce over and over again seemed like it was kind of wearing thin, so I decided to try a different tack.

Steve Pearce!

Signing Happ and Estrada instead of Price was the right move. Price should not have been acquired in the first place. 6 years of Daniel Norris would sure look good now.

Bautista is not worth any more than the QO and certainly no more than one year.

EE offer was not taken off table because team could no longer afford him but because there was no place for him to play and don't say 1b as there is no way he could stand up for a full season at 1b.

Difficult to believe that some of these comments are serious.

I'm gearing up for a full season of Buck and Pat talking about the fans being upset about signing Pearce every time he gets a hit.

All players do their best.

Juan Guzman played his best when he was at his cheapest.

I was going to say that A Pujols played his worst when he was at his most expensive. But 31 Hr and 119 RBI is good.

So the complaint about Pujols is that he is sucking up too much of the budget.

It is too bad that we cannot trade our Luxury Tax deficit.

Pearce is actually a good player and may surprise many fans with his positive contributions. I cannot see how anyone could be upset with this signing except for the mistaken notion that it closed the door on EE. Does anyone really believe that EE would be signed for 4 years to be a platoon 1b? EE is a DH and was gone as soon as Morales was signed. Morales is quite a good hitter as well for those who do not watch any of the opposing teams.

Peter G I agree with you about Price and Norris. I really am with you all the way, because I don't believe you can trade your way to a .700 record OR whatever it was.

AA did a Hail Mary pass. It led to a TD (playoffs). First in 20 years. His legend will grow.

and I am sure that you will also agree that we would have done better in the playoffs without Price and despite his good August and September we would have still made it without him albeit not as decisively.

I don't think so PeterG, I think the Price trade Changed the whole attitude of the team and the Fans. AA effectively 'burnt the ships' with that trade. There was no going back, no surrender and absolutely everyone knew it. If not for a few odd bounces Jays go on to beat the Royals and crush the Mets.

ITYM calls not bounces HTH.

Happ and Estrada combined for a 6.2 WAR for $21.5M in 2016. There's no way around it, signing those two over Price was the right move based on the amount of money and term it would have cost to get Price to sign. The Jays spent 1.5 WAR money and got 3+ WAR's out of it, and it was a big reason why the made the playoffs at all given how great the rotation was all season. Maybe they won't get that type of surplus out of Morales or Pearce, but they signed them to deals that are relatively likely for them to live up to, with potential to exceed its value (significantly in the case of Pearce). That's the difference with these signings. They aren't paying 1 WAR money to get a 1 WAR. They are likely expecting more than that and it made sense for the cost to take that sort of gamble.

As far as this off-season, what should they have done to make you happy? They offered Edwin a deal that he won't get from any other team, and he turned it down. They moved on. The fact that he can't get another team to give him the money or term he wants now is suddenly an indictment of Shapiro? If he's such great value, then why aren't other teams signing him now that he's presumably coming at a reduced price? Why should the Jays be obligated to halt their off-season, possibly lose out on players they viewed as back-up options (Morales/Pearce) on the off chance that Edwin may not sign with a team in December? Maybe they did misjudge the market and pay more for Morales than they could have had they waited, or maybe they wouldn't have gotten him at all if they waited. Ultimately, the blame falls on Edwin for turning down a very reasonable offer. The Jays also made an offer to Fowler and were outbid. It happens. That's why free agency is a risky game to play.

And I honestly have no idea what repeating "Steve Pearce" with a "!" after it is supposed to mean. He has something like a 130 wRC+ in the last three seasons and plays an above average 1B defensively. He hits both sides of the plate well, contrary to the way he was used in Baltimore. If you think he's a bad player, then I don't know what to say to that.

Also, Price was somehow only able to start 35 games in 2016 compared to the 61 games provided by Estrada and Happ. Good thing, since the Jays had already traded away every other starter who had a realistic chance of pitching 26 games worth of above-average innings for league-minimum cost.

Oh, and they also got 29 starts worth of almost league-average Dickey, effectively for free in the bargain.

The Jays faced an offseason losing basically 3 hitters - 1 4war guy and 2 1.5war guys. (yeah a .5war RP too but whatever).

The least they could have done is sign at least one guy with a reasonable expectation of 3+war for a few seasons. They could have done this cleverly and replaced all the lost war with speed and defense, which is cheaper than offense, and I would have been happy.

but signing a bunch of cheap old 1war guys to pretend like they're trying to contend is just cowardly imo.

only 5yrs of control left for norris, btw, not 6.

The off season is not over yet!

6 years of control for Norris including this past season. With an ERA better than 3 of the Jays starters, he may have (indeed probably would have_) put us over the top. And with 5 more years to go, the trade can only be described as horrible and the type of deal that should not be repeated. Heck. if it turned out that we had too much starting pitching, we could have traded for that impact outfielder that seems so elusive.

Norris managed 13 starts of barely 5ip per start, and gave up 30 runs or 3.95 per 9ip, matching his 3.93fip and 4.00xfip. A scorer's decision or two did manage to make his "earned" run average look a little prettier, though. Basically he posted league average numbers but in barely 5ip per start and for only 13 starts. Not something to pine over imo.

and really now that i look closer he was subpar until september rolled around and then had a great september mostly against teams playing out the string.

If the Blue Jays only have $25.0 - $27.5 Million to spend they cannot fill all the holes. With 4 positions to fill, RF, LF, 2nd C and one LH Reliever they have an average of $6.25 - $6.875 Million per position. Add a second Reliever the average changes $5.0 - $5.25 per position. Add a third Reliever and the average changes again $4.167 - $4.583 per position.

Backup Catcher:
a) Inhouse: $.5250 Million;
b) 35 - 40 Games: $1.5 - $2.5 Million.
c) 50 + Games - as the #1 C: $5.0 - $6.0 Million (maybe less).

Left-handed Relievers:
a) Inhouse: $.5250 Million;
b) Current Value: $6.0 - $7.0 Million.

Right Field:
a) Inhouse: $.5250 Million;
b) Available: $13.0 - $15.0 Million.

Left Field:
a) Inhouse: $1.2 Million,
b) Available: $12.0 - $13.0 Million.

What doesn't get spent on one gets spent on ther others. That's why I think Shapiro and Atkins are waiting out the Market. They are $12.0 - $14.0 Million short in filling needed positions unless they dip into the July money.

Jeff Beliveau, LHP, signed to a minor league contract. Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks. He had shoulder surgery in 2015. Useful depth.

It was indeed outlier, Thanks.

When I read about Daniel Norris and Jeff Beliveau, I was thinking about LHSP Bud Norris who possess sinker, career .308BABIP and 4.09FIP. My mind needs rest, bye.

"Norris managed 13 starts of barely 5ip per start, and gave up 30 runs or 3.95 per 9ip, matching his 3.93fip and 4.00xfip. A scorer's decision or two did manage to make his "earned" run average look a little prettier, though."


"Scorer decision or two"? You mean, the Tigers made errors. Go back and look at the errors on September 18th. I did because I want to show ridiculous these posts are. The first error was on a badly misplayed ball by Maybin. A ball that Maybin should have actually caught but the error was on the bobble. Norris was actually unlucky as bad defense cost him a run. The next error is in the fifth inning when a pretty straightforwad double play ball gets missed completely by Kinsler. Again, Norris actually gets a bit screwed because you can't assume a DP. These aren't "Scorer's decisions" as you so dishonestly say, these were very clear errors. In fact, Norris didn't get lucky, he got unlucky. Forget about trying to discount more than a 1/3 of his starts because they are in September ("Playing out the String" is for players that do well in September "League figured him out" is for the opposite like with D'Arnaud.)

his ra9, fip, and xfip all lined up nicely at a mediocre level. his 5.25ip per start tells us be was sheltered and yanked at the first sign of trouble. his best starts came against teams playing out the string in september.

all true.

And D'Arnaud? what does that always injured 28yr old DH with the league average bat have to do with it?

Given how the Jays did last September playing out the string, Beliveau could be quite  useful.

I still thinks Girodo is an acceptable LOOGY. I just don't know if Gibby can figure out how to use a LOOGY.

Beliveau pitched well from the bullpen in 24 innings for the Rays in 2014, and then got injured.  For what it's worth, his major-league splits don't show him pitching any better against LHB than against RHB, and his recent minor-league numbers are equally inconclusive, so he doesn't seem an obvious LOOGY candidate.  The Jays seem to be hoping that Beliveau, like TJ House, is a bounce-back candidate after losing a season or two to injury.  Worth a gamble on a minor-league contract, but we shouldn't count on anything from him.  The theory is that -- if you have a bunch of these guys -- one or two of them will stick.  I'd still prefer it if the Jays invested more for a more reliable reliever.  We will see if they're willing to do that.

Norris didn't get lucky, he got unlucky.

A dude with a WHIP of 1.399 is lucky to be hanging on to a major league job. Granted, his WHIP was even higher in AAA.

Slow news day, eh? 

This discussion appears to have started on the issue of what the Blue Jays lost in the Price trade and the value of Daniel Norris.  If one wants to talk about that, it's really not about what he did in 2015 and 2016 but what he is likely to do in 2017 and beyond.  For what it's worth, I don't have any strong opinions on this but I do generally like 23 year olds who strike out more than 9 per 9IP and walk fewer than 3.  Norris has always had the stuff, but his control was erratic.  It may be arriving, and if so, it wouldn't be a shock if he were to become one of the best pitchers in the league.  We'll see. 

I had a lot of hope for D Norris and Hutch. They were 2 of many favorites.
I still believe that they will have decent success. Time, with good health will tell.

D Price is a very good pitcher. Everyone in baseball probably knows this.

But how about R Porcello, the current Cy Young winner? How good is he? He has pitched 8 years in the Majors. 27 starts in 2010 is the lowest he has ever made. So very healthy. He had ERAs of 3.15, 3.43 and in his rookie year 3.96. The other 5 years his ERAs were above 4.00 but under 5.00. 4.92 twice. Drafted in 2007 and did not pitch pro ball that year. In 2008 he absolutely dominated the FSL 24 starts 2.66 ERA. Next year in the Majors to stay.
He is definitely a good ML pitcher.

D Norris drafted in 2011 as a HS pitcher, did not pitch pro that year. After a great 2014 in the minors he was a Sept call up, so maybe rushed. 13 starts in both 2015 and 2016 with ERAs of 3.75 and 3.38. But he spent enough time in the minors in 2015 and 2016 to burn 2 options. So unsure if he is any good. But I have faith in him.

Hutch drafted in 2009 as a HS pitcher and did not pitch in pro ball that year. Had a great 2011 in Lansing, Dunedin and NH. Rushed to the Majors in 2012 after 3 starts in NH due to probable injuries and not enough depth. 12 ML starts and then TJ. Back in the Majors for 2014. 32 starts, 185 IP, ERA 4.48. So not great but not bad either in my books. Unfortunately 2015 was quite bad, ERA 5.57 in 28 starts. 2016 was mostly spent in the minors where he did not dominate. I believe that he has only burnt 1 option. 2016. The 2013 season was rehab for the TJ.
For me he has to win a job and prove himself. Time and health will reveal the answer. And yes, I believe in him.

Porcello can easily have another season like his 4-5 ERA. Also of course 3-4 ERA. I hope Norris and Hutch can have a few 3-4 ERA seasons. I believe they are capable.

Cy Youngs possible but unlikely IMO for those 3.

I don't particularly miss Norris. His WHIP of 1.4 wasn't very good, and he has been thoroughly mediocre at AAA. He could still end up being good (nice K-rate) as a starter or reliever, but I have my doubts. He was worth the Price (pun intended) in my view. It would have been better though if Price was a playoff stud instead of a perennial choker.

I don't hate Norris but I think he's delivery probably lends itself to inconsistency - when his delivery is off it's hard to see how he can even get the ball inside the batters boxes.

Wouldn't be surprised to see him have a JA Happish or Ted Lillyish career. Good but frustrating pitchers.

A word of caution looking at his K/9 though - this is where using K% instead really comes in handy - a pitcher who gives up lots of walks and hits will have his K/9 inflated simply by facing more batters per inning.

His 23.5k% last year was good, but nothing special. Outside of his phenomenal 2014, where he was up over 30%, his k% has actually not been special, despite his K/9 making it look more impressive.

I,too,like Daniel Norris and hope he does well, but I don't question for one minute the decision to trade him and others for David Price. Never underestimate the mental aspect of sports. In some, like golf, it's huge, but even in team sports, each person's mental approach can benefit or hurt the team as a whole. When the Price trade ( and Tulo,etc. ) were made at the deadline, the Jays were an underperforming, mediocre team but afterwards became a nearly unbeatable juggernaut.
What I'm saying is that the Price trade gave people belief. I'm sure the players when hearing of the trade thought, "Hell, yeah, we're going for it !" While some fans hated giving up blue-chip prospects, none of us minded the wild ride through August and September and into the playoffs after wandering for 20 years through the non-playoff hinterland. Of course, Price didn't contribute much in those playoffs but I think that is a mental thing also. How else do you explain a pretty good pitcher turning into a playoff pumpkin?
In short, the Price trade was a huge factor not only last year but this year, as well. How valuable is playoff experience and the belief in oneself as a team? Yeah, we don't have Daniel Norris in a Blue Jay uniform, but we have memories -- the Epic Bat Flip, Edwin's walk-off homer to win the wild card game, the sweep of the hated Rangers, players returning from the clubhouse to celebrate with fans still in the stands long after the game was over, the sight of a full Roger's Center when the Jays were playing a mid-week game against nobody important. It would have been great to have won one or two World Series but I can live with that. At least for the last two years the Jays have been relevant.

I agree for the most part, but his K9/BB/9 looks pretty good a measure which avoids the problem you point out. I don't disagree with your comps either, but I think they are in the lower half of his possible outcomes, he could just as easily be a much better pitcher. Lefty's tend to age well making it likely that we'll all be chatting about his career for, oh, about the next decade.

Summary of a few points
1) AAAA guys you can cut the cord with quickly and no one cares. Example: In 2017 we will probably see Loup, Tepera, Schultz, Girodo, Barnes, and many others in spring get real shots at the back end of the pen (not sure if any were released).
2) $7 million relievers though you hold onto and hope they become what they once were no matter how illogical it is. Example: Grilli was expensive for Atlanta and they kept giving him chances but it didn't work so they dumped him on Toronto basically paying his contract and getting garbage in return (rookie ball reliever).
Pen locks are Osuna/Grilli and maybe Biagini (unless put in AAA as a starter).
3) Difference between the few bullpen lock pitchers and many more AAAA pitchers means a lot of bullpen slots are open.
4) Between AAAA and pen locks are very solid candidates for the pen. Example: Out of options: Mike Bolsinger, Bo Schultz both of whom are very solid candidates for the pen.
5) For LOOGY potential candidate, check his major-league and minor-league splits against LHB and RHB. If any difference of the against LHB numbers minus against RHB numbers is slight, he does not seem to be an obvious candidate.
6) After losing a season or two to injury, a pitcher is a bounce-back candidate. Example, Jeff Beliveau, T J House, Scott Kazmir
7) AAAA pitchers and bounce-back candidates are worth a gamble on minor league contract but not counted on anything. The theory is that -- if you have a bunch of these guys -- one or two of them will stick.
8) The Jays FO -- or any major-league FO for that matter -- shall be willing to invest more money for a more reliable reliever than AAAA and bounce-back candidates
9) For 2017 off season only, $ 5.5 mil per year is quite expensive for the non elite relievers.

The followings are my points.
Marc Rzepczynski is not pen locks but got 2 year deal worh $5.5 M annually. So if the Jays FO go for more reliable reliever, shall the $5.5 M per year be the upper limit? Aside from that assigned money value, has Bo Schultz been performing at a comparably level to Zep? If so, Schultz is more economical in salary: 0.5M in 2016, and in transaction: he was a waiver wire pickup. We as fans shall observe waiver wire pickups, which I think AA's FO had been taking advantages of.

I will go out on a limb and say that some unknown will make a good impact on the pen. That is using the same theory as sign a bunch of AAAA or unprovens and someone will stick.

Just a gut feeling from my optimistic gut.

SK asked a good question:

As far as this off-season, what should they have done to make you happy?

To me it comes down to who "they" are. If we're talking about Shapkins - I probably don't do TOO much that's different, because at the end of the day, I'm stuck with what is likely a $160M budget and too many important holes to fill with not much wiggle room. In this context, I hope that Edwin passes on the $20M I offer to grab Kendrys at $11M, even if the latter is ~20% or so less effective.

If "they" are the Blue Jays, then organizationally, I expect them to do what every other Toronto-based major sports franchise does - set a budget that bumps up against the league mandated team tax threshold or salary cap (in MLB its the former).

Personally, this frames too much of the ensuing (and more fun) conversation we have about which players, for how much term, how they might look in the lineup etc.

It's all just very reminiscent of being a Leafs fan in the early 90s when Teacher's took over ownership of the Leafs, when winning was "nice" because it helped the brand and the base asset value of their property, but never a priority from year to year as they set a % return for their constituents.

It wouldn't be as difficult to swallow if a) the team didn't play in the AL East and b) the team didn't have a legit shot at a WS berth the past couple of years. Such as it is, I'm just very disappointed and it doesn't really matter what they do with the rest of their $15M - $20M.

Yeah, and that regime traded away Gilmour, Andreychuk, and Clark, and the only return they got was Mike Gartner, a good skater when he was in his prime. They could've had some other solid assets from those trades, except they traded away all those guys, too.

Honestly, it's not fair to compare the Leafs to the Jays, because the Leafs have more money than they know what to do with, and they still find a way to fail over and over. But they still sell out every game.

You could compare the Leafs to the early-90's Yankees, if you want. Except that awful Yankees organization went on to win the World Series four out of the next five seasons.

The Leafs haven't even been to the Finals since 1967.

"I don't disagree with your comps either, but I think they are in the lower half of his possible outcomes, he could just as easily be a much better pitcher."

he could, but might end up worse, too.

Such as it is, I'm just very disappointed and it doesn't really matter what they do with the rest of their $15M - $20M.

I agree with most of what vulg said, but this.  If the Jays can emerge from the remainder of the off-season with a decent LHH corner outfielder, it will matter to me.  Reddick signed for 4/52, so it's not exactly a pipe dream.  At this point, it's more likely to occur by trade. 

How about Brandon Moss? His power numbers should improve at Rogers Centre. He did well at the spacious ballpark in Oakland. I would be all for it but for the K's. He is another all or nothing guy and we have some of those already.

There are two questions about Moss- ability to get on base and defence.  His defensive numbers in the outfield the last two years have been pretty decent, but he is 33.  I don't think he is going improve on his .300 OBP- his game is the fly ball and his average exit velocity is not particularly high.  Sometimes the ball will leave the yard, but when it doesn't, it's almost invariably an out.  And he strikes out a lot. 

I wouldn't be keen.  He would be better than Carrera probably.

I guess one can’t stop people being unhappy or disappointed, all I can say is that I’m not. I’m enjoying this offseason, and Shapiro and co. (look, Ma, no portmanteau!) are doing a great job in difficult circumstances. On the one hand they have a bunch of talent to build around, and the pressure of fan expectations, thus no time for a rebuild. On the other hand they have a bunch of talent heading to the door, and little in the way of reinforcements arriving from the minors. They have managed to replace a lot of the hitting talent in Morales and Pearce. They are one outfielder short of a potent lineup - Carerra/Pompey in one corner wouldn’t bother me at all - and the offseason isn’t over. They’ll patch the holes in the bullpen before the offseason is done.

This is totally subjective, I grant you, but think about it; it’s not all bad, it’s not all over.

I really hate that "they have it tough" narrative. They inherited a great team, with a number of key elite controllable talents, with next to no longterm committments, a huge surge in fan support, rich owners, and yes even a good farm system still in place. Pretty much no GM walks into his new job in that kind of killer situation.

I think Moss can be a 2 WAR OF bat in a platoon with Upton. He does have a very unappealing skill set (high K's, low BA), but he has shown legit power in ball parks that typically suppress it (Oakland in particular), can hit RHP, and is probably an average defender in the corner OF spots. He'd be a fine pick-up.

I would have Moss as a 1 WAR player in a platoon role.  In other words, a below average player for the heavy side of a platoon. 

Dr B - "portmanteau" Defined by Google as "a large trunk or suitcase, typically made of stiff leather and opening into two equal parts..."

And Merrian-Webster and Co. elaborate thusly, "In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, Alice asks Humpty Dumpty to explain words from the nonsense poem "Jabberwocky" and is told that slithy is "like a portmanteau-there are two meanings packed up into one word." Although slithy hasn't caught on (it's made up of slimy and lithe, according to Humpty Dumpty), another portmanteau invented by Carroll has in fact found a place in the language: chortle (supposedly from chuckle and snort). English includes other portmanteaus, too, such as brunch (breakfast and lunch) and dramedy (drama and comedy). Following Carroll's lead, English speakers have come to call these fairly common words by the not-so-common name for a type of traveling bag with two compartments. The technical (and simpler) term for such words is blend.

Dr B you certainly said a mouth full with that blend...

Here I am in my 71st year and I hear a new word. To butcher/paraphrase that lovable rogue, Mr Toad from The Wind in the Willows, "Oh Joy - even better than messing about in boats - a new word..."

Shapiro Inc.?

Well I admit, I wouldn't have known the word portmanteau until recently. There's a silver lining in everything, including Brexit.

Shapiro Inc.?

I like.

Shapiro Inc.?

Atkins et al (AeA)?

English speakers have come to call these fairly common words by the not-so-common name for a type of traveling bag with two compartments.

In French, porte-manteaux is just a coat rack.

Brandon Moss could make a  platoon partner for Upton, as long as you bring Upton as a defensive replacement in late innings. It all depends on who's playing the other corner outfield. If you bring Bautista back, then you probably want more defense. Would Bautista be the leadoff hitter in that case or would he hit cleanup?

Sorta needs to fill the full time position first.

bpoz, are you using sarcasm that going out of your comfort zone will mean some unknown makes a good impact. In other words, often some unknown will not make a good impact on the pen. Besides. Scott Kazmir bounced back from a released pitcher by the Angels.

"I would have Moss as a 1 WAR player in a platoon role. In other words, a below average player for the heavy side of a platoon."


Moss has a good profile for Rogers Centre; tons of fly balls and solid hard hit rate. If strictly platooned and used primarily as an OF, I think his offense should bump up a bit and his defensive value should be average (he's an awful 1B). I don't think a 2 WAR is out of the question in that scenario, however yes, his profile of high K's and low AVG would be frustrating to sit through (doubly so if Smoak is in the lineup with him). Regardless, he would be a solid signing, IMO. The options out there are pretty limited.

This is more like what I enjoyed in my teens into my 20's - the Jays of the 83-93 contending years where every move mattered. Last winter was more like the 1992 offseason where the team did significant changes including getting rid of a popular mid-season pickup player (Cone vs Price) and replaced with a weaker but cheaper option (Dave Stewart - JA Happ).

This offseason also is a bit like that 1992 one with popular long term Jays leaving (Key & Henke vs Encarnacion & Bautista) although the 2 this time are bigger contributors. Those 2 were replaced in-house (Hentgen & Ward) while at least one this winter was a free agent replacement (Kendrys Morales & Steve Pearce sharing EE's slot) and the other is a wait and see.

That 1992/1993 offseason was nuts as changes happened at 3B/SS/LF/DH (Gruber/Lee/Maldonado/Winfield with Sprague/Schofield then Fernandez/Darrin Jackson then Rickey Henderson/Molitor) and 3 of the 6 guys who had 10+ starts (Stieb/Key/David Wells replaced by Stewart/Hentgen/Leiter) Of course both years the Jays had the highest payroll in baseball around $50 million (don't laugh, different era). So mass change can happen and a team can stay in contention. We've seen it here. In fact, it is healthy for it to happen (Gruber fell off a cliff, Maldonado had his worst full season, Molitor was far better than Winfield, Lee vs Fernandez is a blowout, Stieb was done, Key and Wells though both had many good years left as did Henke).

Brad Ziegler to the Marlins for 7/9M.

The backloaded contract tells me the Marlins will likely trade him for a prospect at the deadline if they are not in it.

Taking the most money knowing he'll probably be playing meaningful baseball somewhere in September probably makes a lot of sense given that he's 37.

He's make 22M in his career so far, so 16M for 2 years is a very significant amount for him.

Actually cybercavalier I was not being sarcastic. But after reading my post a few times I see it looking like sarcasm.

My thoughts were that we regularly get a good surprise from an unknown. But yes, most of the unknowns will stay that way.

So for pleasant surprises over the last few years, Loup gave us 3 very good seasons 2012,13 and 14. Last year it was Biagini. Osuna was not an unknown to Batters Box but his pitching was WOW, so very good it surprised me.

So thinking positively, I expect a pleasant surprise.

Dave Cameron has a good piece on Fangraphs on what makes Ziegler so effective.

"Regardless, he would be a solid signing, IMO. The options out there are pretty limited."

What if I told you there's a big bat on the FA market that ZIPS projects to hit .252/.369/.499 and for a higher wOBA than Encarnacion, and that reports suggest he's signable for less than half of what the team was supposedly offering Encarnacion?

It's nice to claim you want to get younger and more athletic, but when you refuse to part with prospects and won't lead the FA market on the players that achieve that goal, there isn't much left out there.

92-93, the Jays don't appear to want Bautista back, and Jose is just trying to find a team willing to give him anything beyond a one year deal (which he isn't having much success with apparently). He's still an option, but regardless of how much sense it would make for both sides to agree to a short deal (1-2 years), that does not appear to be in the cards. So you look at other options, and those options are limited. Even Bautista himself comes with caveats (age, defense, etc).

They won't trade prospects, but as mentioned, they have made offers to top free agents (Edwin, Fowler). They are in a position where they have to improve via free agency, and it's not a good year for that, so they'll have to be picky with who they go after.

Moss would be such a BS move.

It would likely be for one year whether it is Moss, Bautista or whomever. Many of you are calling for Pompey on one hand and wanting to block him with the other. What if Ramirez wins a job in ST? what if Alford rips in AA? FO is clearly waiting for these guys and others. Hence, the short term contracts.

Agreed PeterG. The front office wants prospects to take spots on the big league roster, that's why they are trying to hold on to them and build the farm system up as much as they can, but they are not banking on prospects to pan out, hence short-term vets. They had no issues with pushing Chavez and Floyd aside when Sanchez broke out in March, and they'll have no issues if Pompey or whoever does the same thing this coming spring. Ultimately it comes down to finding talent that can provide value while also leaving the team flexible enough to incorporate prospects in scenarios where it becomes realistic.

That's the way this FO will work. They hired a bunch of player development people and are clearly making that the focus of the organization. To me, it's the right move. To others it may seem boring. It is what it is. As long as the short-term vets they bring in can help the team over the next two years (which I think Pearce and Morales can), then that's all that matters. Nothing has changed from their behavior last winter. They just have a lot more holes to fill this winter.

Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have been with the Jays basically one year, and this is their first Offseason together. They don't know enough about the Prospects to make decisions that could be far-reaching. I don't know how much they've consulted/trust those that know. It just seems/appears arbitrary to decide they're not trading anyone.

It's amusing to see some fans praising the low-budget moves as a shrewd strategy of "value" and "player development" and "building the farm system," when in reality they are more accurately described as penny-pinching efforts by cautious executives who feel the need to protect the profits of the owners (and hence to preserve their own careers, since they know that their owners are more interested in profits than a World Series victory). 

As further fodder to this debate, the final 2016 payroll numbers have just been released.  The Jays ranked 11th in the majors -- but much closer to the 15th-ranked Royals than to the 7th-ranked Angels.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article121511152.html

"....What if Ramirez wins a job in ST? what if Alford rips in AA? FO is clearly waiting for these guys and others...."

This is wishful thinking, and a poor justification for the parsimony of the FO.   None of these prospects are close to the majors, and spring training won't reveal anything that we don't already know.  Tellez is the closest, but even he won't be ready until the second half of 2017 at the earliest.  And the fact that the Jays have invested most heavily in free agents at the 1B/DH position tells us that the FO is not exactly counting on any of the team's prospects to be a factor in 2017.  

Reviewing Cots Contracts- Jays have 127.5 MM for 12 players and estimated 6 MM for 4 arb players totaling $133.5 MM for 16 players

Lets presume that minimum salary players total 7 players at $.5 MM a player brings the Jays to $137.3 MM for 23 players.

So where do you spend 23 MM for the remaining players a big bat (Ryan Braun -Trade) and a backup catcher Navarro.

The remaining 15 players on the 40 player roster total $3.5 MM, the 40 man payroll is around 164 MM similar to what Cots Contracts indicated what the team was worth last year.

it's so backwards - if they wanted kids to come in and earn spots they'd leave the bottom of the roster clear of crap vet filler on guaranteed contracts.

if you want kids to earn spots you spend the money on fewer and better vets, you don't spread the money around on duplicate layers of crap.

there's no room for Rowdy to surprise when you have all of morales pearce smoke (not to mentiom potentially guys like bruce and moss) clogging up his path to playing time.

CF, Shapiro does not create the payroll, ownership does. All he and Atkins can do is build the best possible team within those 'parameters'. They spent money last off-season by signing multiple players, they took on payroll mid-season with Liriano, and are still spending money now. It's just not going to be with a payroll that some fans want. Look, I'd love if the Jays spent $180+ million, but they aren't, so they have to work around it. Their payroll did not prevent them from making an offer to Edwin (which he should have accepted), or Fowler (which the Cardinals blew out of the water). It won't stop them for adding more players in the next two months either. They'll just have to be mindful of the $25M they apparently have left to spend.

This team is going to be built through the farm system, either by young players they draft/sign themselves, or acquire via trade. They'll probably start trading prospects when they are in a position where they have a surplus and enough big league talent to justify it, but they are clearly not there yet. Trying to win in 2017-18 while still building up the system is the best of both world's.

You are trying to create a very false impression. The figures you state are in U.S. dollars. For every U.S. dollar the Jays have to pay 1.33 Cdn. That changes the outlay to the point where it could be reasonably argued that Jays are planning to spend 212 mil in Cdn dollars this season...hardly cheapskates. Much has been invested in player development to the point where the Jays org has gone from just about last to 1st in the way they handle player development. This is clearly where they think that they can gain an edge.

The view on the prospects is not only overly pessimistic, it is downright wrong. For over 22 years the Jays have followed a practice of using prospects as currency and traded them away at alarming rates. That's why they have been one of the more mediocre teams in MLB. Finally, we have a FO that wants do to it right and gain some sustained success. Bravo.

And as for another poster's suggestion of Braun and Navarro. My God.....a proven cheater and one of the worst receiving catchers in MLB. Perhaps I should use that in the past tense as I doubt that Navarro is in MLB this season. If he is, he will have to earn his way through a minor league contract.

Now, it's distinctly possible they'll need to see in Spring Training who they can/must callup during the Season if needed, or who could/must make the Team.

I just think there's enough assets to acquire one needed piece, because I don't think they're willing to spend everything on what's available.

"Many of you are calling for Pompey on one hand and wanting to block him with the other."

You must have completely missed the point of all the pro-Pompey posters. We want him given a chance if the alternative is Revere, Carrera, and/or Upton.

"the Jays don't appear to want Bautista back, and Jose is just trying to find a team willing to give him anything beyond a one year deal (which he isn't having much success with apparently). He's still an option, but regardless of how much sense it would make for both sides to agree to a short deal (1-2 years), that does not appear to be in the cards. So you look at other options, and those options are limited."

The question is why don't the Jays want Bautista back? He fits their needs precisely, especially since you're obsessed with the concept of patching over the team with short term contracts. The media should be all over the Jays and the Bautista situation.

I think we're going to see more development at AAA then we've seen before.
The Jays have moved moved Bobby Meacham, the Fisher Cats manager to Buffalo.
Meacham was the recipient of the Bobby Mattick Award for excellence in player development within the Blue Jays organization  in 2015.

I think two main factors militate against Bautista re-signing:

- JB's pride (having to take way less than he demanded last spring)

- Concern on the part of the front office about: (1) Bautista's declining offensive performance (consider how he performed in the playoffs last year), (2) his deteriorating defense, (3) his increased risk of injury, (4) the likelihood of his resisting / being unhappy about a move in the near future (possibly in 2017) from RF to DH/1B

I'm not saying he wouldn't be a decent short-term option, but it's not an obvious match to me.

It should be apparent to everyone that Shapiro and Atkins are under tight financial constraints. Whether by Ownership or by July Trade needs, is not known. The costs of Relievers of the caliber needed by the Jays will not go down. The costs of Outfielders of the caliber needed by the Jays will not go down. For the Jays to get what they need before chaos happens, pay the price now or make a Trade, and pay the price.

Time to do some dumpster diving then I guess.

Why don't people want Bautista back?
Cleveland beat Toronto because they were too easy to pitch to, all those RHBs in a row.
The main Bautista issue? Another RHB. If he's a LHB, he's re-signed by now.

"This team is going to be built through the farm system,"

THE TEAM IS ALREADY BUILT.

Not even close.

Richard,

We will have to agree to disagree on what team needs and cost.

On the subject of Bautista:

I don't know if the team wants him back due to internal issues. There is some doubt about this so I do think he could return though not likely. It may also be that his pride and ego would not allow him to return on Jays terms.
For me personally, I would be ok with him for 2017 for a one year contract but not beyond as I feel we will have internal options by 2018 and possibly sooner.

the idea of fake-helping this back to back ALCS team fake-contend in order to help the glorious rebuild is hilarious.

especially since this strategy doesn't do anything to, you know, help the rebuild.

I'm not really concerned about Bautista's defense.
The Jays have 2 ground ball starters and a fly ball ball starter.
The leaves Happ and Liriano and they both posted amazing ERAs even with Bats in the outfield.
With a platoon of Upton and Pompey, Pillar could cheat toward the other corner.

There's a good chance Bautista bounces back to a 3-4 WAR year like he did in 2013.

I don't think pride has anything to do with it.
The ideal contract for Bautista is 3 year with an opt out next year.
Shapiro hates those types of contracts and likes team options.
Still, because of the attached draft pick, it's unlikely that an other team will overbid.

Past performance is no guarantee of future success. And the Jays barely made the playoffs last year, after a horrible offensive stretch to close out the season. The post-trade deadline team in 2015 was a great team -- arguably one of the best two or three Jays teams ever -- that almost made it to the WS despite some key injuries down the stretch (Tulo, Travis, Cecil). Last year's team was a bit older, a bit less dynamic, a bit less imposing (albeit with a very good rotation led by an improved Sanchez).

It's probably true that Rogers could have kept the good times going in the short term with some aggressive spending this off-season (say, on Encarnacion, Fowler, Reddick -- I would have liked Hill as well). But then they would have had a huge payroll and a still-old, somewhat-brittle roster. But with a $160-170m budget, I'm not sure what the answer is. Sometimes it's better to be patient and keep your powder dry.

Or you could do what the Yankees did, invest in the farm and spend on FAs, and when you weren't in contention this year, deal those FAs and rebuild your farm team. 

Or you could do what the Marlins did with us - sign a bunch of FAs, pay them for one year, and then deal them for prospects.

These aren't great models or anything, but the idea that there is only one possible way to build a winning team is silly.  There are countless exemptions to the 'rule'. 

Apparently Bautista is talking to the Rays.

The formula there would be to sign him for 3 years and flip him after a good year.
I don't see Tampa losing a draft pick on a 1  year deal, but then again it's only a second round pick for them and they could flip him to a contender at the deadline, so even a one year contract would make sense.

Besides, I hear Jose has a house in Tampa.

"The question is why don't the Jays want Bautista back?"


That's a question none of us can answer. The only factors I can think of are some combination of his attitude/ego, the fact that signing him would cost them a comp pick, his declining defense, and he'd still have 10/15 rights if he re-signed so he would have the power to block trades if it came to that. On the flip side, maybe Bautista's pride won't let him "settle" for a 1 or 2 year deal, or he wants to show he can still get his money elsewhere, etc, etc. No one on this forum can answer that question.

That should say 10/5 rights above. Eyes didn't catch that the first time.

Some of Cashman's moves in recent years remind me of Anthopoulos's creative approach to rebuilding the Jays' farm system. Miller, Chapman, McCann and Beltran not only help keep New York relevant over the last couple of years, but they also netted the organization a nice haul of prospects (Cashman also flipped Greene for Gregorius a couple of years ago, and now has Gregorius and Torres -- the latter was the best prospect in the AFL this year -- in his shortstop depth chart).

Cashman is an underrated GM, in my view. It won't be long before the Yankees are again a dominant team in the AL East.

Much of the off season is completed a week into the New Year, IMO.

We at da Box are no longer discussing and speculating on the budget. We may be wrong but we have decided on $160 mil, $25 mil left over. Shapiro said payroll will go up. It is good to put this issue aside.

I am sincere and really do not want to offend anyone. All opinions should be respected.
Regarding the Jays now being in or possibly being in Rebuild Mode. IMO a small minority here are suggesting that. I guess if you are not going forward then you are going backward. There is some merit to this view. But Shapiro has not said rebuild. Then again he does not have to. We have holes to fill in the view of many.... OF, 1 good reliever. If these holes are not filled adequately, I still don't believe we are in rebuild mode. Backup catcher is not a hole IMO because/unless the replacement is not close to replacing Thole.

I expect a pitcher to be traded, Happ or Estrada. I think Happ is at his highest value and most likely will not match 2016. I think he can fall quite far from his 2016 performance. If that trade happens I still will not believe we are in Rebuild Mode.

If Donaldson is traded then I am convinced that we are in Rebuild Mode.

".....For every U.S. dollar the Jays have to pay 1.33 Cdn....."

That's an irrelevant argument, unless you can show that the Jays have less revenue than other MLB teams.  The payroll figures that I cited were all in US dollars, for all MLB teams, to provide an equivalency.  You can convert those US dollars (for any MLB team) into any non-American currency that you choose.  It doesn't matter what currency you express it in, unless you can establish that the Jays are somehow deprived of revenue in comparison to other MLB teams.  The Jays, in fact, are flush with revenue -- from the box office, from merchandise, from television revenue, from advertising, and from the value of the Jays brand as an appreciating asset to the overall Rogers corporation. 

Most reports say the Jays will spend $160-million on their 2017 payroll.  That would be an increase of less than 5% over their actual final 2016 payroll.  To be fair, we could wait and see what the final payroll is at the end of the season.  But if the increase is less than 5% as widely predicted, after a hugely successful financial year, at a time when baseball inflation is running far higher than 5%, it's a pretty pathetic increase.

Rebuilding would be trading for prospects. If we wanted to do that there would have been no point in signing Morales for 3 years.

I think they'll try to extend Estrada. 2016 was a down year of sort for him. What he's doing now is not very different for what he was doing in Milwaukee. He's 33 and last year was the second most innings he's thrown.

Encarnation was worth about 3 WAR at DH. Bautista was worth around 1 WAR in right field.
Donaldson is worth 7-8 WAR at 3B every year and there's nothing in the farm system that could replace him with even a third of his value. A lot will depend on what happens in 2017. Right now Donaldson would be worth that 5/150M contract Bautista was talking about.
~                                                                                                                          

Shapiro has said that the relatively low Canadian dollar creates a disadvantage for the front office.

Of course, the Cdn dollar creates a disadvantage. That should be obvious to anyone with even a modicum of common sense. IN addition to that, not all that a team spends is reflected in the major league player salaries.

"Barely made the Playoffs," and "too easy to pitch to," are the over-riding factors in the Season and the focus of this Offseason, or it should be. As has been seen, acquiring Relievers In-Season is possible.

In 2015, the Jays were 23-29 through April and May with 11 loses credited to the Bullpen. The Jays moved a Starter into the Bullpen and acquired three more Relievers at the Trade Deadline. The Jays lost to K.C. because John Gibbons didn't have a good enough Bullpen.

In 2016, the Jays were better, 28-26 in April and May with 14 loses credited to the Bullpen. The Jays still had to acquire three more Relievers at the Trade Deadline. The Jays lost to Cleveland because they were too easy to pitch to. The Bullpen was fine.

A lot of time and assets were spent in acquiring the Bullpen the last two years. It matters more even now. Getting it right before Game One makes it easier to win games. Especially now when it matters most. Relying totally on luck is not always the best move. The Jays never have enough Money/assets to do everything they must and they never will, so the Bullpen is always last. Up the Middle, the Top Two and the Back End are what matters. Why can't the Blue Jays do it all right?

Of course the corporate executives will say whatever they have to say to justify their payroll decisions.  The public statements of an executive such as Shapiro are largely a public relations exercise -- they're not necessarily an accurate guide to the realities of a company's finances.  In the case of Rogers, a lot of the value of their baseball operations is hidden from public reporting anyway.  We don't know exactly how much value a nationally famous and successful baseball franchise is bringing to their overall finances, especially their media operations.  But I'm sure it's more than the company will tell us.

In any event, even if the currency exchange rate is having some effect on finances, it can't be calculated just by multiplying the US dollar by the Canadian dollar.  That's a simplistic and incorrect assumption.  You'd have to figure out the entire value of the company's revenue, in Canadian dollars, and convert it to US dollars and compare it to the payroll in US dollars.  And you'd have to use a correct estimation of the revenue, including a lot more than just box-office revenue. 

This idea of "poor Blue Jays, they have to play in Canada, where the dollar is low" is just too simplistic.  They get a lot of benefits from being the sole baseball franchise in a country of 35 million people. 

the ticket and concessions prices are right in line with their US counterparts, including the conversion rate.

Such a good point, and one that is not made nearly often enough.

"The Jays, in fact, are flush with revenue"

China Fan, do you have any evidence to support this assertion? How do you know that a $160m payroll (plus other costs that need to be covered, such as the Gurriel signing, the new deal with Dunedin, the RC renovations, the additions to the front office staff, etc.) is too low for the amount of revenue the team generates? You seem to be saying that there is no evidence to support the position that the low Canadian dollar (which some think is headed for 70 cents US) justifies a lower payroll, but where is the hard evidence to support the position that an annual payroll higher than $160m is justified?

if they're struggling to make ends meet they should sell the team. plenty of billionaires would line up to purchase.

Four years ago, the year-end payroll was $92m. This year, it was $164m.

I get that people see the capacity crowds and the skyrocketing TV ratings and want to see a payroll in the $175m - 200m range. I would like to see the team become one of the heavy hitters in baseball, too. I just haven't seen anyone make a business case for an annual payroll in that range using actual data rather than arguments based on emotion.

A true and accurate portrait of how much value the Toronto Blue Jays bring to Rogers will never see the light of day because there is no legal requirement to do that. The Rogers Center/Skydome and the Toronto Blue Jays are very likely separate entities on the Corporate structure. I suspect it's because they were bought at different times in the Corporate history. When you own the Team, own the Stadium, own the Media and more, you can report what you want.

We can only know what we are told, the rest is speculation and opinion. We can figure out what's possible by what we find out. For as much as we know, there's a lot we don't. But one thing we do know, the Jays are now a big cash cow for Rogers.

The Blue Jays aren't struggling to make ends meet, they're turning a healthy profit and they want to keep doing so. That's a simple fact of the corporate business model. What customers want and what investors want isn't ever going to be the same thing - the customer wants the highest-quality product at the most affordable price, and the corporation wants to make money selling their product, which means a balance between quality and price point. The customer can choose to agree to the corporation's terms, or they can stop being a customer.

Most billionaires didn't get to where they are by investing in money-losing propositions. There are always going to be exceptions (guys who've already made giant fortunes doing something else but want to own a baseball team as a vanity project) like Mike Ilitch, but even he's a questionable example because the Tigers are now trying to cut costs after spending a ton of money and not winning it all.

Also, it'd be pretty tough to make an argument that Rogers would even be willing to sell the team when they also own the stadium and a broadcast monopoly.

The Blue Jays aren't struggling to make ends meet, they're turning a healthy profit and they want to keep doing so. That's a simple fact of the corporate business model. What customers want and what investors want isn't ever going to be the same thing - the customer wants the highest-quality product at the most affordable price, and the corporation wants to make money selling their product, which means a balance between quality and price point. The customer can choose to agree to the corporation's terms, or they can stop being a customer.

Over an indeterminate time horizon, you're absolutely right, I expect Rogers to act rationally (as any corporate entity would) and pursue a profitable property. What some disagree with is applying that formula uniformly every year ignoring specific circumstances.

McCown put it best when he openly lamented ownership's lack of "investment spending" and vision these past two seasons, making the point that under Ted, things may have been different (pretty refreshing considering he works for their radio station). There's nothing wrong with burning into that profit margin you've set aside for a year or two to build some long-term goodwill. This is no different from what any corporate does when it goes through growth vs. harvest phases.

Instead, the company has chosen to absorb the additional revenues from the past 2 seasons while team salaries have slid progressively from 9th to 11th. Of course, it's completely their prerogative simultaneously brag to shareholders about how well the Jays have rewarded them (as they've done in their quarterly reports) while holding expenses steady.

You're also completely right about it being a fan's choice as to whether they remain a customer. One of the reasons I invoked the Leafs comparison earlier was that personally, that's a choice I made. I stopped investing my disposable income and my attention towards the hockey club for a couple of decades once I realized Teacher's was not going to invest to the level I felt they could (especially back in a non-cap era).

My long-term hope is that ownership sets up a separate sports property, similar to MLSE, to liberate the Jays from the pressure of having them show up on Rogers' income statements and balance sheets. Or even better, take on partners and just fold them into MLSE. I'm absolutely certain the club would spend up to the tax threshold (as MLSE's current properties do) under such a structure.

In the meantime, people will have to forgive me if my apathy grows. :)

Just because you don't see it in major league salaries does not mean money has been not been spent . It has. A ton of money, unprecedented for the Jays, was put into player development at Shapiro's request. And even after only one year, there has been positive results. Last year at this time, Jays system was ranked bottom 10 by BA. Last month, John Manuel, editor of BA Prospect Annual, said it was now a top 10 system. That was before the signing of Lourdes Gourriel who has been placed in our top 10.

Many of you can't seem to look beyond. or grasp, what is going on beneath the surface. The mandate given to the FO was to build a sustainable contender. That is not the path that the previous admin was on. Yes, a contending team was built to take advantage of EE's and JBO's last years and to give Beeston a last kick at the can, but it was not sustainable......too many older players and no flow of developed prospects to take their place. The FO will do it's best to contend in 2017 and 2018 but that is secondary to the mandated building of sustained contention. All moves should be see within that framework. That is the way it is whether we like it or not and I do.

I was originally an Expos fan. I started paying attention to the Blue Jays when my son was in Little Leagues and I needed something to talk about with the other parents. Some of them were Yankees fans which I found shocking. This was back in 2004, the bluebird won a paltry 67 games that year and the kids would insult one another by throwing comparison to Blue Jays players.

The next year Delgado signed with the Marlins and they won 80 games with a rotation of Roy Halladay, Josh Towers, Gustavo Chacin, Dave Bush and Ted Lilly even though Erik Hinske didn't hit enough to play first base, Russ Adams wasn't able to handle shortstop and Corey Koskie was barely replacement level at third base.

The next year they added Lyle Overbay at first, Troy Glauss at third, AJ Burnett in the rotation and BJ Ryan as closer.
Good for a second place finish as the rotation didn't hold. Chacin was basically done and Towers was never able to duplicate his early success.

It's been mostly downhill since then, until the last couple of years.
I'm perfectly happy to hold on to the current rotation which has a chance of being the best in baseball.

""Many of you can't seem to look beyond. or grasp, what is going on beneath the surface"

Oh we know full well that this inherited contending roster is just an annoying bug in their grand plans for the future Supervaluefunparty Jays.

Shapiro Inc would have been much happier if the team they inherited had just stayed at .500 like they were, leaving them to sustainably sustain their sustainable vision in sustainable peace.

But dang if they don't have this annoying contending roster forcing them to pay lip service to the fans standing in the way of their exciting plans.

Actually the 2010 Jays rotation of Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, and Brandon Morrow wasn't bad but finding the fifth starter that year was problematic. Seven pitchers started at least 3 games with Brian Tallet and Dana Eveland managing 9 a piece and contributing era's of well over 6. Hopefully Liriano will continue the improvement he showed last year and not lead us down a similar path.

Maybe the fans standing in Shapiro Inc's way way would be better served supporting a different team, at least until the Shapiro Inc. regime ends.

Assuming that fan is a paying customer, it's his or her right as a disgruntled customer of any brand.

The Rogers era will be summed up nicely by the fact that in the very year they made the playoffs for the first time in 2 decades, they went out and replaced the front office.

...they went out and replaced the front office.

More than you know. The incoming CEO to take over at Rogers is a "Baseball Guy". For the first time ever, Rogers' new CEO will know Baseball.

Ted Rogers was the first and only CEO to ever understand that when the Team did well, the complaints went down. That January he gave the Team an additional $210 million over 3 years. Ricciardi's initial comment, "It's too late". He was right, in that year very little was left to sign or trade.

A few are asking for proof the Jays can afford more this year vs pre-contention (2012 and earlier - 2013 they were 'all in', 2014 was 'oh crap', 2015 'woohoo', 2016 'fun')

Heading into 2016 via Forbes
Jays revenue: $241 million US
Gate: $59 mil
Per fan revenue: $28

2012: Revenue $188 million US
2007: Revenue: $157 mil (oldest data they have)

Bizarre data. Gate obviously was more than $59 mil with the Rays listed at $29 mil and the Jays in 2015 having 2,794,891 in attendance = $21 per fan, not $28. $28 per equals $78+ million. So there obviously was a very simple error made there which calls all their data into question but it is the best non-biased source generally.

Plus, of course, the TV ratings. 2013 saw 540k per game (via the Star) 2012 was around 504k (7% less than 2013 according to that article). 2015 saw 901k per game and 2016 was 1.01 million per game (not counting playoffs where 5 mil plus wasn't unusual). This is via Forbes. They also mention radio ratings up 26% vs 2015 and who knows vs before that. So basically the Jays have double the viewers they had before the big trades in the 2012/13 offseason and probably the same on the radio. Rogers owns both so any increase in revenue is going straight into their pockets (IE: not a long term deal with a 3rd party like pre-Rogers where the team doesn't see any benefit from increased viewers until the contract runs out, then needs to negotiate it).

So from that we can see the Jays have upped revenue by at least $53 million vs 2012 and given the increased viewership is probably not factored in it should be a lot higher (Jays now get more viewers than the Leafs. Leafs around 860k to 1.2 mil depending on source/timeframe). Leafs are listed as being $41 mil per year (richest in hockey) while some MLB teams are getting up to $85 per year for 20 years (that is Texas, present should be around $51 to $70 mil depending how it is structured). So safe to say the Jays are worth at least $40 mil to Rogers right now for TV rights, and it could be as high as $70 mil a year. Back in 2012 it was no more than $100k per game iirc ($16 mil a year). So add another $24-$54 mil a year to the pile.

Net value using public sources that have flaws? Range of $53 mil to $107 mil depending how Forbes factors in TV revenue. This isn't factoring in the massive benefit to clubs from MLBAM (their internet wing with MLB.tv and the like - estimated at $10-20 mil a year last I read) and other shared revenues that have only climbed. Or other revenue from the dome that Rogers keeps as they own the place (ads, food, booze, etc.)

I really wish that Rogers and Shapiro and Atkins and probably everyone except the Blue Jays mascot hadn't pissed in uglyone's cornflakes. I have never seen such vitriol directed at a management team in ADVANCE of their expected failings. The Jays, after all, did make it to the league championship final this year and the current management did make some contributions. We may all disagree about certain player transactions at one time or another but I'd prefer to wait for 3 or 4 years before I'd condemn those in charge as being idiots.

Given all the givens. If I was Rogers (and I am a Roger - just not a Rogers) I'D MAKE A RULE.

It would be that the Jay's BASEBALL MANAGEMENT can spend up to the "soft cap" WITHOUT ASKING for permission. INCLUDING the extra as the cap is raised over the years. This RULE will allow the team to be under the "soft cap" from time to time and any money they "save" they can use to go over (and pay the penalties) without asking. SO the team will be committing to spending - over time - 100% of the "soft cap."

IF - the BASEBALL GUYS need more - ask. Rogers' REAL management will reserve the right to say Ya or Nay as the mood, and cash flow, strikes them.

This would get the overwhelming majority of the fans off their backs, and would be adequate enough to allow the team to be at least competitive - most of the time.

I have spoken. Look on my works ye mighty and despair.

I don't understand what Mark Sharpiro and Ross Atkins are doing, it doesn't make sense. They had to know who was going to be available this Offseason and have a good idea of the costs. Decide who they must have and go get them. It's that simple. Or are they planning for the bonanza Offseason that's coming. It doesn't help this offseason.

Right now I expect Dalton Pompey in RF with Melvin Upton JR sharing LF with Ezequiel Carrera. A.J. Jimenez will catch. The Bullpen will made up of In-house, Minor League signings and waiver claims. Then if they can't surprise me, I'll be sure of a rebuild.

Incidentally, does anyone know what happened to Michael Saunders' defense? He was rated as above average in Left.

PeterG, thanks for your thoughtful, bang-on posts. Nice to see some valuable input.

John Northey - there is no error in the Forbes data - go back and have a look at the "fine print" on that site - it tells you what the various numbers like "revenue per fan" are measuring. That number for instance, is something very different from what you are taking it to be.

Richard S.S. - for a start - Saunders only has a working knee on one leg. This often proves to be an impediment when playing the outfield, and trying to rotate while hitting, on a professional baseball team.

The big news at Rogers this year was probably this.  Apparently they made a hash out of efforts to develop in-house TV and are taking a $500 million hit.  Ouch.  The previous year it was the hockey contract that bit 'em in the behind.

How much are the Blue Jays TV rights worth to Rogers?  I have no idea, but I do know that the contract price won't tell you much about it. It's the very definition of a non-arms-length transaction.

Mike, this could prove helpful:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

Toronto was getting the biggest ratings in baseball, so if the Dodgers are getting $200 million, then the Blue Jays should be getting (fill-in-the-blank) from their TV contract. Unfortunately there is no TV contract.

So Rogers has a hard time turning a profit on the Jays but at the same time the Jays are too valuable for them to sell.

one of these things matters to their spending, the other doesn't.

Yes, James W.  The article does contain a reference to the Jays' TV revenue although the club does not appear on the graphs.  The author comments that a portion of the TV revenues likely remain with the parent company. 

Monopoly capitalism.  Isn't it great?

Rogers isn't going to change. They are in a business to make money and will keep acting the way they are acting. Complaining about them won't change anything. The best way for the FO to work around them is to not need them; meaning build a team that doesn't require multiple payroll boosts to maintain competitiveness. That's going to require developing your own talent (or trading for them when they are cheap) and then supplementing them with free agents, not the other way around. The Jays are heading in the right direction.

So Rogers has a hard time turning a profit on the Jays but at the same time the Jays are too valuable for them to sell. Rogers had a hard time turning a profit on a business venture completely unrelated to the Blue Jays. In other news, the Detroit Tigers are cutting payroll because Little Caesar's makes crappy pizza.

Oops, I messed up my sarcasm mode tag. And the rest of the message formatting, apparently.

What I was trying to illustrate was that just because Rogers loses money on a failed venture, and also happens to own the Blue Jays, that doesn't mean the Blue Jays are losing money. You'd think this would be self-evident, really.

"....Four years ago, the year-end payroll was $92m. This year, it was $164m..."

Do you have a source for that?  I cited the official MLB year-end payroll numbers, which had the Jays at $153-million.

"....where is the hard evidence to support the position that an annual payroll higher than $160m is justified?...."

Since the Rogers books are opaque, it's impossible to provide the proof that you request.  But even from the fragmentary evidence, it's clear that Rogers can afford a much bigger payroll, and still make a substantial profit on their baseball operations, if Rogers was properly accounting for the full range of financial benefits that are generated by the baseball operation.

Consider this:  Rogers announced in October that the biggest increase in its revenue had come from its media division.  The revenue from its media division, in the third quarter, had jumped by $60-million (about 13%).  Here is the explanation from the company's chief financial officer, as quoted in the Post:

Rogers’ chief financial officer responded this way: “Third quarter is generally not a big hockey impact. What you see in the third quarter is really as a result of the Jays.” He explained further what a successful Toronto Blue Jays team, one that was in a pennant race through the late summer and fall, meant to the parent company’s results: ‘We continue to see … the improvements in not only attendance and all that brings in terms of revenue, but also viewership and the associated revenue with that. And so that’s what you’re largely seeing in the third quarter.”

In other words, the Jays were the main reason for a $60-million increase in revenue in just one division of the company.  Yet after this $60-million increase, the company is proposing a $7-million increase in the payroll, from $153-million to around $160-million.  That strikes me as parsimonious. 

Here's the source for the above quotes:
http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-teams-that-win-are-a-cash-cow-for-rogers-who-may-be-prepared-to-fritter-it-all-away

For what it's worth, I think that an MLB payroll of $160 million instead of $170-$175 million is penny wise, pound foolish.  The Jays are at a place on the win curve where the extra investment makes a lot of sense. 

Electric Carrot commented late last year about the Liriano trade that it was time that the organization acted like a large market club, taking on salary so that they can acquire useful minor league talent.  I agreed with that comment, but it does little good if ownership cannot decide whether it is really a large market club or a mid-market club. 

Spending $18M or so to acquire two Top-100 prospects and add pitching depth isn't the same as spending what it takes to sign a Price or a Fowler. I loved the Liriano trade but I don't think that means the Jays should be big spenders just for the sake of it. I think it's better to weigh the relative merits of each one of these decisions rather than label them as a big-market or a small-market move.

"....The Jays are at a place on the win curve where the extra investment makes a lot of sense...."

Thanks, this is exactly the point that I'm trying to make.  I admit that it's too early to be absolutely certain what the Front Office is doing.  Maybe their pending moves are more ambitious than we realize.  But the trend so far is somewhat worrying.  My concern is that the Jays will be cautious with their off-season moves, and then they'll need everything to break exactly right to make the playoffs again.  They'll need every low-budget gamble to pay off.   If they fail to make the playoffs in 2017, there's a definite risk of frittering away the financial momentum that the team has been generating, and then the organization could return to mediocrity. 

I'm not saying that the Jays should only sign big-contract free agents at the expense of the farm system.  I agree with those who say that the current Front Office is investing wisely in the farm system, and I like the Gurriel acquisition.  That's great, but let's not pretend that it's some kind of unprecedented move.  Anthopolous spent $10-million on Hechavarria, a further $3.9-million on Guerrero Jr., and many millions more on other international acquisitions.  He also greatly boosted the numbers of coaches and scouts in the Jays system.  The farm system was ranked highly, before the 2015 trades.  It's simplistic to suggest that farm system was somehow neglected until Shapiro arrived.

"For what it's worth, I think that an MLB payroll of $160 million instead of $170-$175 million is penny wise, pound foolish. The Jays are at a place on the win curve where the extra investment makes a lot of sense."


I agree with that only if the money is spent sensibly. Adding $15M to the 2017 payroll so that they could afford to give Fowler 5/90 instead of 4/60 is not a good way to allocate resources. The Jays are in a very dangerous spot in that they have a window to compete in 2017-18, but if for whatever reason the 2017 season ends up being a wash out, then they'll probably have to look to trade Donaldson to avoid losing him for nothing after 2018. Adding more long-term deals to 30-somethings isn't a smart idea, especially in this market when they already tried to go that route and were shot down (Edwin and Fowler).

As long as they can find short-term value that can add wins to the roster now, and are open to adding payroll mid-season if the team is in a good spot, then I'm fine with that.

Since Rogers got involved in ownership the Jays, Raptors and TFC have become contenders.

And the Leafs' future looks pretty bright.

Not sure why people are complaining about ownership to be honest.

"The Jays are in a very dangerous spot in that they have a window to compete in 2017-18, but if for whatever reason the 2017 season ends up being a wash out, then they'll probably have to look to trade Donaldson to avoid losing him for nothing after 2018."

Honest question - could you specify what the "dangerous" part is there?

The low dollar excuse wouldn't be utter bunk if when the CAD was worth more than the USD the Jays would clearly be in the upper echelon of spenders. In reality, the Jays opened the 2010-2013 seasons with a stronger CAD than USD, and of course payroll didn't reflect that at all. Furthermore, multi-billion dollar corporations like Rogers either make a business decision and choose to hedge the CAD, or don't. They don't get to cry poor about the falling CAD only when it fits the narrative of their offseason.

"The Rogers era will be summed up nicely by the fact that in the very year they made the playoffs for the first time in 2 decades, they went out and replaced the front office."

This a gross misrepresentation of what happened. Rogers replaced the President (and by extension, the front office) BEFORE they went out and made the playoffs, and after that happened Anthopoulos read the writing on the wall and sacrificed the team's future for the present. I'm all for the trades that were made, but let's not pretend like AA would've been making them if he had any job security.

Richard Griffin has an interesting article up. I think that an article like that right now sends a message. If the right people are listening.

more development at AAA then we've seen before....Meacham was the recipient of the Bobby Mattick Award for excellence in player development within the Blue Jays organization  in 2015.

A bit leaning on fantasy. After promoting prospects from Double-A and retaining others in Triple-A, will the Jays fill the Bison's remaining roster slots in Buffalo with former Jays prospects? My idea was why use brainpower of Jays' player development for someone that just came for 1 season in Buffalo. Former Jays prospects who are still around in 2017 after seasons away from the organization mean they are capable on their own hold. Given they are already familiar in memory with this organization, use the brainpower to retool them for the better mean figuratively contributing to player performance that has shown to be capable.
As the Jays in Toronto need a backup catcher and corner outfielder, would someone want Arencibia and Snider back in 2017 Buffalo in going along the reasons of more development in Triple-A.

short answer....no

I had a quick peek at the club's situation as of 2018.  I don't see anything worrying there.  They have about $110 million committed to these players: Martin, Pearce, Smoak, Tellez, Travis, Goins, Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Pompey, Pillar, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Biagini, Tepera, Bolsinger.  They obviously need at least one outfielder (as they do now) and two pitchers. 

They have a bit of tough situation in 2019, but by 2020, their only significant commitment is to Tulowitzki for $14 million with plenty of young players in arbitration and pre-arb. If you look at just about any other team, the long-term commitments are more onerous.  The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Giants are in a whole other league, but the Rangers have a 38 year old Choo at $21 million and Andrus at $15 million in 2020, the Orioles have a mid-30s Chris Davis at $23 million, the Mariners have a late 30s Robinson Cano at $24 million...The Indians and Astros are in nice shape. 

Anyways, the club obviously should be trying to sign Donaldson to an extension, but if one cannot be negotiated, there is nothing dangerous about their position.  Either they will be in contention in 2018 at the deadline or they won't.  They will adapt to that position.  What would be dangerous is having a bunch of above-market long-term contracts for older players that push them up close to their market cap.  They don't.   

Mike, I meant 'dangerous' as in they'll have to possibly change direction if they are out of it mid-season 2017, not that they'll have financial issues with the roster. In that scenario, what incentive would they have to keep Donaldson unless he agreed to an extension? If they are still contending in 2017, then no problem. If not, then yes, they'll have an issue with team direction. I don't think heading into 2018 with Donaldson on the roster if they failed in 2017 would make much sense with the way the new CBA is set up.

If they are out of it in 2017, they'll have 3 chances to trade Donaldson for a decent return. The hard part will be determining if the reason they are out of it is a fluke or not.
The other issue I worry about is how the change in CBA will affect players on expiring deals. Will trade deadline offers be a bunch of low-ball offers because it's a question of getting something, or nothing? Will accepting a low-ball offer in said circumstances set the tone for how other teams deal with a front-office going forward. If the team makes a decision to trade Donaldson, I hope they get a good offer before July 2018.
A couple of starters and a closer should also get a decent return whenever they're actually ready for a rebuild/re-tool.

I understand Griffin's article. In his, the only suggestion seems to be trade back one expensive contract such as Smoak's.
How much the Jays can spend in payroll.

Why must one break up a roster of players for a rebuild? This is a non-question but to assert the idea whether some other ways are possible. I agree that the hard part will be determining if the reason they are out of it is a fluke or not. Taking Biagini as example, how possible or probable the management find more gems in the rough ?

So at least one of Travis Wood, Jerry Blevins and/or Boone Logan is likely to be a Blue Jay (as per Jon Morosi). This isn't new, but to mention it now indicates stronger interest/first sign of life.

"Why must one break up a roster of players for a rebuild?"

exactement, cavalier.

Why break up a roster for a rebuild? No reason.
1993 saw a massive shift from 1992 and the Jays won both years. As I posted above - changes happened at 3B/SS/LF/DH/rotation/closer
3B: Gruber to Sprague (rookie)
SS: Lee to Schofield (free agent) to Tony Fernandez (trade)
LF: Maldonado to Darrin Jackson to Rickey Henderson with a bit of 'oh crap' inbetween
DH: Winfield to Molitor
SP: Stieb/Key/David Wells replaced by Stewart/Hentgen/Leiter (FA/near rookie/injury case)
Closer: Henke to Ward (in house promotion from set up)

That is a single winter massive rebuild of a WS winner. Now Jays 2016 to 2017

CA backup: Thole/assorted crap to A.J. Jimenez and assorted crap
LF: Saunders to Upton/Carrera
RF: Bautista to Pompey (place holder for now)
DH: Encarnacion to Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce

Rotation is down a Dickey but more time for Liriano
Bullpen is down Cecil/Benoit added Brett Oberholtzer (LH blech)

Assorted other changes of course, but those are the key ones. RF and the pen are the clear issues but also have backup choices up the wazoo for the pen (20 pitchers on the roster, 5 in the rotation leaving 15 fighting for 7 slots plus assorted NRI's).

I'm a little skeptical about the value of Logan, but he, Blevins or Wood would probably be a good addition, although Wood's agent is trying to market him as a starter. Logan had a very good year in 2016, but over the course of his career, he has a WHIP just a hair under 1.50. Last 3 years in hitter friendly Colorado, but even on the road his numbers in 2014 and 2015 weren't great. He was pretty good for the Yankees for 4 seasons before joining the Rockies, after 4 putrid years to start his career. I'd prefer Blevins of the 3.

Not a fan of investing money in a LOOGY. Just go with Loup and hope Gibbons uses him properly. Worst case if it's still an issue mid-season, then make a trade. Outfield is a much bigger concern at the moment.

I find it difficult to evaluate whether Rogers are good owners because I have so little data to work with. Rogers owns the Jays, the ballpark, and the TV network on which they broadcast, so everything is hidden behind a screen. We don't have any idea how much the Jays are being given to spend on the team, and we don't have any idea how much the Jays could spend on the team and still be financially viable.

I wonder whether our perception of Rogers, the baseball owners, is affected by our (adverse) perception of Rogers, the cable and Internet service providers. If the Jays, the dome, and the TV network were owned by Random Corporation, Inc., would our opinion of them change? Would we still secretly wonder whether fan money was being funnelled out of the club and into the pockets of investors and shareholders?

It could be worse, I suppose. Rogers haven't tried the blackmail approach that has been used elsewhere: build us a state-of-the-art multi-billion dollar facility with taxpayers' money, or we're going to pack up and move to a new city. (Rogers Centre is now the 7th oldest ballpark in MLB.) And they are willing to at least spend some money - we just don't know whether they could be spending more.

We should think of the Jays owners as Rogers Media. They operate as three divisions and the people who run each division are measured by the success of their division, not Rogers Communications.

Cable and Wireless are the cash cows. Rogers Media have very tight margins (15% vs 45%), by comparison, and represent a small percentage (5-7%) of the overall cash flow of the company.

Just a couple of things to keep in mind when forming our critiques.

CA backup: too early to tell, still ongoing process. As listed, defensive upgrade.
LF: Big upgrade defensively, offense might be a wash.
RF: Big upgrade defensively, work in progress.
1B: Upgrade defensively, could be very close in offense.
Rotation: Possibly a big upgrade.
Bullpen: WORK IN PRPGRESS.

Travis Wood has held LHB to a .200/.262/.305 line over 450 PA the last 3 seasons. He'd be a nice guy to have as well for SP insurance, considering how paper thin the Jays rotation depth is right now.

Cable pays Media much less than market value for Blue Jays telecast ergo Cable has better margins than it ought and Media has worse.

Mike, what evidence if any do you have to support this assertion.

Just to add a little more fuel to the fire

http://www.canada.com/sports/baseball/toronto+blue+jays+teams+that+cash+rogers+prepared+fritter+away/12548151/story.html

Logan (32): Lefties hit: .142 .222 .255; Righties hit: .211 .338 .421.
Wood (30-ish): Lefties hit: .128 .208 .239; Righties hit: .265 .344 .521.
Blevins (33): Lefties hit: .255 .313 .324; Righties hit: .182 .266 .345.
As a Swingman/6th Starter/Reliever, Wood is a good choice.
As a replacement for Brett Cecil, Logan is my choice.

One thing to keep in mind is that money spent on the 2017 ballclub doesn't necessarily have to be spent this off-season. There may be better deals to be had (like the Grilli, Benoit and Liriano trades) during the season.

Cable pays Media much less than market value for Blue Jays telecast ergo Cable has better margins than it ought and Media has worse.

I don't believe this is correct - if Sportsnet underpays the team for the tv broadcast rights (and for that matter, the radio rights), that's just money-shuffling within the Media division, as all of those entities are held within the Media division.  The team's status as a hot broadcast commodity may have some spillover effect on the Cable division, to the extent new cable customers sign up for service strictly to watch baseball telecasts, or existing customers choose not to cut the cord for the same reason, but I would think that would be hard to measure and would be fairly muted, in any event, given that Rogers does not have a national monopoly on cable distribution.  That is neither here nor there, in terms of what Rogers ought to invest in payroll in order to maximize its own profits (which it is required, by law, to do for the benefit of its shareholders), but I think that the vast majority of the value of the Blue Jays to the Rogers enterprise (excluding any goodwill that may be generated for the owners) is reflected in the results of the Media division.  

One thing to keep in mind is that money spent on the 2017 ballclub doesn't necessarily have to be spent this off-season. There may be better deals to be had (like the Grilli, Benoit and Liriano trades) during the season.


You also have to remember how good a Team it took to make those acquisitions work. This Team still has a long way to go yet. Ignoring the Bullpen is no longer an option.

I don't believe this is correct - if Sportsnet underpays the team for the tv broadcast rights (and for that matter, the radio rights), that's just money-shuffling within the Media division, as all of those entities are held within the Media division

My error.  A simple question then- why does Rogers not report how much RSN pays the Blue Jays for television rights? OK, it's a rhetorical question. 

Where Alex Anthopoulos went out in a win-now blaze of glory, the new regime has been, to boil it down to one word, cautious.

Crazy stuff. What was AA's big free agent signings again?

Ezequiel Carrera, Scott Copeland, Jonathan Diaz, Marco Estrada, Munuenori Kawasaki, Russell Martin, Dioneer Navarro and Steven Tolleson. 

Estrada was acquired in a trade.

The word I would use for the present FO is shrewd.

Why break up a roster for a rebuild? No reason.

So far, the discussion on this thread may indicate to fans to wait it out? It is late, see ya.

Here are my 1 AM thoughts on what is going on with the Jays and payroll.

There are strong reasons for Rogers to underpay the Jays on TV rights - #1 being revenue sharing. Every penny they allocate to the Jays has a percentage shared with all other clubs but each penny kept in another division of Rogers is kept by Rogers. If they can convince the rest of MLB that the Jays aren't that hot a property on TV then they get away with it. Part of that is ensuring the Jays payroll doesn't go so high that it suggests they do have a massive TV hidden revenue stream thus hanging around 10th in payroll keeps them out of the crosshairs while still being a contender. Climb to top 5 and they might get tougher questions from other teams. Spend a lot of that on minor league operations and few will notice but returns could be massive in the long run.

So expect a stronger minor league system - going first class all the way to try to develop better players and a payroll that is around 10th at the start of the season but can climb mid-way if in contention and the right player is available.

You're, of course, right about Estrada.

Estrada was acquired by trading away Lind who was making north of 7M so Smoak could be installed at 1B.
The move was popular because Lind was often injured, but the team saved money there while the offense was reduced.
Had Stroman not messed up his knee in PFP, Estrada might have stayed in the bullpen and would likely be somewhere else now.

Also, Martin signed a 7/15/20/20/20 contract. The low salary on the first year was to meet some self imposed salary cap.
I wonder what was the math on the last part of that contract. Was the payroll expected to rise or was a rebuild scheduled this winter? It would have been easy to sign EE and Fowler on 5 years back loaded contracts too. It's just not sustainable.

smoak was never labelled the 1b actually. they just figured paying money for a platoon DH was a waste when they had encarnacion bautista valencia Navarro for the 1b/dh slots already, and could invite guys like smoal colabello barton to camp as well.

John I think that mentality is probably a bit insulting to the rest of MLB. They know better than any of us how much money is flowing through each team in the league.

400+ posts and I have to wonder. Do Yankee or Dodger fans call their owners cheap every time a free agent signs elsewhere?

I swore the last two years that I would never doubt Rogers financial commitment to this team again. I won't start now just because we've missed out on some overpriced talent.

I agree completely with the notion of paying for premium talent "at the right time". However, ignoring closers, who exactly were the premium talents that were available this offseason? Cespedes maybe, but he was always going back to NYC. After that I'd argue that Edwin and Joey were the next best talents.

1. They're still available.
2. We're on record as having the best offers out there for both of them.
3. We've signed comparatively inexpensive contingencies that do not preclude us from bringing them back (Pearce can play OF or 2B in a pinch; Morales can share 1B/DH with Edwin while Smoak gets cut/traded).

Where exactly has the front office failed us?

And now for something completely different.  I came across this interesting effort in the Hardball Times to rank players across eras, which includes an argument for increasing the weight for peak/prime performance over career.  Roy Halladay as the 8th most valuable pitcher of all time?  I wouldn't have thought that possible, but he ranks ahead of Koufax, Carlton, Gibson and Spahn.  The great starting pitchers of the 90s and 00s rate very highly as a group. 

Red Sox have just unloaded Bucholz and 13.5 mil on Phillies. Could they now sign another FA bat?

going to RS for Buchholz is 2b Josh Tobias who as far as I can see is not ranked in Phils top 30. So, if the cost of unloading a 13.5 mil contract is a very minor prospect, perhaps the Mets will take notice?

The Jays should remain patient - If the Mets want a team to take all of Bruce/Granderson contract, they need to add prospects to the deal ala Pirates in the Liriano deal - else just sign Moss for much less.Too many corner outfielders available, it's a buyer's market

As long as the Jays remain patient, posters here will keep complaining....lol

The Mets have way too many OF's and I don't think teams are going to give up a real prospect plus take all of Granderson or especially Bruce's contract. In a salary dump those two become more appealing (especially Granderson). I agree, wait the Mets out. They can't possibly start the season with no CF (except Lagares who they don't seem to view as a starter) and four corner OF's (Conforto, Cespedes, Granderson, Bruce). Granderson would be an ideal pick up for the Jays (hits righties, good defense in right the past two seasons, one year deal, can platoon with Upton, etc). Wait the market out and see what happens. If they have to 'settle' on Moss then that wouldn't be a bad scenario.

I am sure that they will try to move Bruce, and run with Cespedes, Granderson, Lagares and Conforto.  At this point, Bruce has negative value vs. his salary.  A Bruce/Upton platoon would probably end up below average, but yeah a modest improvement over the current situation if the Mets assume the salary and the Jays return a C- prospect. 

It would be a lot better to assume Granderson's salary and send a C+ prospect the other way but the Mets are trying to win in 2017 and Granderson is one of their top 3 outfielders.

A FO that starts listening to fans/posters will likely soon be joining them or something like that -patience is usually not a virtue associated with fans/posters. I am certainly not complaining so far (except for the 3rd year to Morales)- probably will complain if it's April 2 and we still have the same outfield - will probably complain much louder if we gave up something of value for Jay Bruce.

Very different cases for Bruce and for Granderson. Bruce has neutral value so he should cost nothing or close to it. Granderson will cost prospects for sure. He's a good player on a one year deal.

Very different cases for Bruce and for Granderson. Bruce has neutral value so he should cost nothing or close to it. Granderson will cost prospects for sure. He's a good player on a one year deal.

From what I've read, that's the same assessment the FO has, who apparently withdrew on Bruce when it appeared the Mets wanted something back for him rather than looking at him as a salary dump. The problem for the Mets, is that they traded two youngsters for Bruce, so it will be hard for the same people to dump him for nothing a short time later. It might be easier for them to deal Granderson.

I see the Indians have signed Tbol to a minor league deal. Presumably they're hoping he's found a more up-market dealer.

In the case of Buchholz, you take him in hope someone will take him back at the trade deadline and you upgrade a prospect for a few millions. In the case of Bruce, it's not clear that there's still a payday to be had there.

For the Jays right now patience is key. Free agents are starting to get ants in their pants at this point. Everyone wants to be settled by the new year, by February at worst. Any still on the market by March will be desperate, as will teams with surpluses (Mets for example). All the Jays _need_ is one solid outfielder and ideally another solid reliever or two.

Technically Pearce can play the outfield corners, one would hope with some coaching/positioning and a superstar defense in CF he could have his issues minimized if needed out there.

Possibilities...
1) Resign Bautista or trade for Bruce - both poor on defense, but good on offense. Need a solid defensive OF to fill in late (Carrera could do it, or Pompey)

2) Resign Encarnacion - dump Smoak, try to make a 3 headed two position monster work (Pompey/Carrera/Upton) or find a 4th guy to make it a double platoon.

3) Go defense/defense/defense - Smoak at 1B, Pompey/Carrera/Upton splitting the two OF slots with the weakest two platooning or doing a 3 way shuffle ala point #2.

3) Do an AA and get a surprise player ala Andrew McCutchen here.

Funny. No matter how I cut it resigning Bautista for 1 or 2 years makes the most sense by a landslide it seems.

Davidi wrote that the Jays should have done what the Dodgers did with Jansen.

The Dodgers gave him a month to field offers and he ended up signing back with them for less because that's where he wants to play.

In contrast, the Jays made a strong offer to Encarnation because they wanted him back, but he chose to give everybody else a chance to beat that offer, except nobody even cared to match it.

Trumbo is also in the picture after nixing 4/52M from Baltimore and there's also Chris Carter and a few others.
There really was a glut of 1B/DH types this year even before Colorado decided to punt Desmond to first.

It's worth remembering that Desmond turned down a 10 year 107M contract from the Nationals to hit free agency and sign a 1 year 8M contract with Texas. There is a few precedent for agents negotiating bad deals and players not understanding that free agency does not reward past performance but rather future potential.

I had to look up the details and it looks like Desmond has cost himself about $28 million by foregoing team offers.

In 2014, he turned down a reported 7yr extension that would have guaranteed him $107 million through his age 35 season. He'll now get $87 million during the same time frame. He also cost himself $8+ million last season when he rejected the Nats QO and settled with Texas less than half the offer.

It's a good cautionary tale for others -- it's OK to bet on yourself, but few athletes can sustain their peak performance for many many years... best to cash in at your peak if you can. I think Edwin's best chance of being guaranteed $80 million in future earnings came & went quickly last month.

I think Edwin will get his money. Boston just freed up a chunk of cash by trading Buchholz, and I really don't see Mitch Moreland having a lock on the DH spot.

I also think Bautista might be the best fit.

Either way, I don't think we can judge the offseason until it's officially over. If the FO doesn't sign anyone else I'll be disappointed. But depending on how things go they might end up looking quite shrewd, given that they may have successfully predicted the weaker than expected markets for Bautista and Encarnacion (if they end of signing either for less than expected). However, they might also just be cheap and risk-averse. Only time will tell.

EE is not going to Boston. They just made the Buchholz move to get under the tax. I will predict now, as I did before, that he ends up with Texas.

it's OK to bet on yourself, but few athletes can sustain their peak performance for many many years

It's difficult for most of us to look at ourselves objectively. It must be all the more difficult for a professional athlete who has to wrestle with the idea that at age 30, he's almost certainly on a downward trajectory. (At this same age, many of us in the real world are just starting to find our professional footing.)

Bautista came to camp this past spring outwardly confident that his diet and exercise regime could keep him fit from age 35 to 40, and because of this he would not succumb to aging like all those before him. And I have no doubt that he truly believed this. I also have no doubt that he'll head into the 2017 season thinking that 2015's results are genuinely attainable. Pro athletes are not wanting for confidence. This requisite personality trait can, of course, get in the way of sound judgement.

I think Edwin's best chance of being guaranteed $80 million in future earnings came & went quickly last month.

It certainly looks that way. I wonder if we are witnessing a reckoning, where age and defense are finally figuring more heavily into player evaluations and sluggers are now being scrutinized in a way they never have been before.

Bautista on a short term deal (1-2 years max) always made the most sense since the FA market is incredibly weak and the team does not want to trade prospects. The issue is whether both sides could agree to a deal. The Jays front office does not seem eager to bring him back, while Morosi is suggesting Jose wants to come back. A deal can probably get worked out, but a one year deal seems counter-productive especially since they can sign or trade for (cheaply?) a few players on similar/lesser terms without losing a comp pick (Dyson, Moss, Granderson/Bruce, etc). This front office will definitely value the comp pick, so tack on about $10M to the 1/17 QO price (assuming that's the Jays offer still), and it's a pretty large investment for one season. The one year deal would have be to a lot cheaper for it to make sense for the Jays from that standpoint, or it would have to be a longer term deal, which actually hurts the Jays since they'd be investing in more of Bautista's decline. Two years is probably the safest.

I have no clue what it would cost from a prospect standpoint, but if there was a way for the Jays to come out of the off-season with Granderson in RF and Dyson in LF (or vice versa), I'd be thrilled.

I have no clue what it would cost from a prospect standpoint, but if there was a way for the Jays to come out of the off-season with Granderson in RF and Dyson in LF (or vice versa), I'd be thrilled.

Just one would work for me.  Let him platoon with Upton and give Pompey his shot. 

How much will options determine the state of the pen?  We've got Osuna, Grilli and Biagini for sure.  Bolsinger could make the team as a long man and he is out of options, along with Schultz.  Sparkman has options but has to stick with the team as a rule v guy.  Add Loup or Barnes and you've got a seven man pen but it's a pretty underwhelming group.  The AAA depth is solid with Tepera, Girodo, Beliveau, Leone, Campos, Oberholzer and Dragmire, with some further away options in Tim Mayza, Blake McFarland and John Stilson.  Not sure a Boone Logan type really helps here much. 

Any chance we use Osuna as more of a relief ace type role to maximize what we do have? 

Goins, Carrera and Jiminez are the key position players who are out of options, and I could see the team losing Goins unless he can beat Barney out of a job in the spring. 

Options will always play some role in pen make up. That's why the two waiver claims involved pitchers with remaining options. I think the fact that Bolsinger is out of options will help his cause. I would like to see him tried in short relief. I think it will hurt Schutlz, however, as I don't see him making the team out of ST. He would likely clear waivers and go to Buffalo.

that's weird i thought barney was an FA. happy he's still here.

interesting thing about this offseason is that it's looking like the smart play might have just been to wait the market out. it'll hurt if EE and Bautista only cost $10m more than morales and pearce.

I don't think it's as much about money as it is about philosophy.

I don't think anyone is to blame for the Encarnacion situation. The Jays made a reasonable offer, and when EE demurred, the Jays moved aggressively to sign their next-best choice. That happens sometimes in the marketplace. Neither side had perfect information as to how the market for various free agents would unfold. Sometimes the smart move is to hold out for your top choice; sometimes moving to secure an imperfect-but-good option is the better move. Last year the front office's strategy worked out pretty well. Time will tell how this off-season's moves (or non-moves) pan out.

Can somebody please direct me to where the analysis has been done for the 2017 projected team payroll as it stands now. I know I read it at least a couple times here somewhere.

I see Rick Westhead tweeted this morning that 2017 payroll will start at $165M, up about 14% from last years starting payroll.

What does this leave them, about $30M?
Thanks!

Yeah, there is the challenge. How will the market react to various forces. The new agreement between players and the league is very league friendly from what I can tell. I suspect the players will see few teams go over the cap now, even fewer than before. Teams at the bottom will continue to purge and try to minimize salary.

In truth a perfect time for the Japanese league to steal players from MLB - ala what happened with Bob Horner in 1987 (he was a solid ML hitter, consistent 20+ HR threat when that was a lot of HR) but went to Japan for a year at age 29. Came back at 30 for 60 games and that was it. He never played in the minors outside of that brief one year Japanese league stint. If a team over there is willing to spend $15-20 mil on a year for Bautista or EE it could happen. Doubt it will but it could.

MLBTR summarized an interview of Paul Kinzer (EE's agent) by Jeff Blair. Interesting read.

Apparently, Edwin would STILL prefer to come back to Toronto. I'm conflicted - my daughters love the parrot, and I like EE's attitude, in general. On the other hand, maybe it's because he's hoping by saying the right things he can still get that 4/80 offer that no one else has come close to yet?

Look, if Toronto was really still your first choice, and you still want to be here, I'm sure you could make it happen. You've made $50M in your career - even if you take away 2/3 due to taxes and agent fees, you should still have $10-15M in the bank - enough for a decent life. Take 3/57 + a team option at $15M - in 3 years, it won't matter as much about the money, as just playing at all. If you're worth $15M in 3 years, be very, very happy about it! And you can bank another $20-25M easy with this contract. By dropping down a little, it lets the team write off the Smoak contract, which will let them save face.

I think also, we could do something creative for Bautista: offer something like: $15M for 2017, $20M for 2018 (team option), $25M for 2019 - mutual option, with '19 team option guaranteed if he plays a certain amount, say 1000 PA over 2 years, $5M buyout both years. That works out to $20/year no matter how long he stays. If he declines/is injured/has a bad year, we're on the hook for $20M. If he's really good, we get 3 years at $20M each, which isn't peanuts, but isn't prohibitive. Assuming EE's also signed, it means he's pretty likely to stay in the field - but if he will agree to move to LF and DH sometimes, it would make it that much easier.

Not saying these are the best contracts they're likely to get going forward, but I think they're both offers with reasonable results for both sides. Yeah, it really cuts into Jose's $150M fantasy, but after his 2016, there's no way he was ever going to get that. Doubt he's getting 5/100 either. 3/60 is probably the best he's likely to get this off-season, before factoring in the draft pick costs..

It's not happening with EE. Even Kinzer acknowledged that. Can we move on?

move on to what?  feel free to suggest a new topic, but not much is happening right now.

Personally, I think EE is a great fit here, wants to be here, and the fans who love him don't seem to be considered a factor in the equation by many posters here.  Not that this should be a primary factor, but it's also not an irrelevant one.

The way the offseason is playing out, I see no reason to closing doors if there is a reasonable deal available.  I don't think Shapiro and co. have shut the door completely on the guy, although obviously if we resign Bautista things get harder than they already are in terms of figuring out a deal that makes sense. 

Frankly, if the FO has the attitude 'we aren't signing him, no matter what', that in itself is problematic, and I think they are too smart to limit themselves like that.

Worrying comments from Dave Cameron's last chat:

"Yeah, I think the Rays are basically just as good as the Blue Jays at this point .... I’d go BOS-gap-NYY-gap-TOR/TB/BAL as my AL East rankings at the moment".

Cameron also says 3 years / 50$ million for Jose is his likely deal.  I'd do that in a heartbeat.  Sign a backup catcher and a reliever and the major offseason work is done. 

EE is not coming back. Jays have Morales and Pearce already and adding an expensive long term 1b/DH type on the roster makes zero sense, Bautista on a short term contract I can see though. Jays need to improve in the OF. Right now, their OF can't hit a lick.

"Yeah, I think the Rays are basically just as good as the Blue Jays at this point..." Good thing then that the Jays' December schedule is pretty light.

$6.0 Million each for two Relievers; $13.0 Million for an OF; leaves $5.0 Million for a good backup Catcher.

Cameron also says 3 years / 50$ million for Jose is his likely deal.  I'd do that in a heartbeat

I'd do that too. I'd also offer 3/45 but incentives to make it 3/60 for health and performance. Make it easy to get 50 and reasonable to get the other incentives. If he tanks/ is injured give the team a buyout for 5. Efffectively it works out to 20/20/5+ which makes it face-saving for him, and not a hamstring on the team. Weight the incentives a bit towards the end and you could have even or positive value if he has a comeback year, and value on the 3rd year.

He's projected for 2.8 WAR so about 21.8 mil of value, with a decline of .5 WAR a year he'd be worth about 17.5 in year 2, and worth about a dozen in year 3

Jose is exactly the kinda player I think incentives would be good to both give him a ton extra salary (but have him "earn" it) while still protecting the team.

why move on? Because I heard the interview and the agent said that the door is closed with EE and TO. No matter what fans want to think, that is the reality. It is becoming tiresome to continue discussing it.

I'm expecting the 2017 outfield to be:

RF - Moss/Upton
CF - Pillar
LF - Bourn

The Yankees have been willing to be merely contender-ish in recent years while focusing hard on streamlining payroll and strengthening the farm system (mission accomplished). The Jays may need to do the same thing for a couple of years. Not walk in the wilderness, exactly, but get the team on a more sustainable path for success.

First day of Winter; shortest day of the year; Christmas is on the way and Santa's not bringing us a new post! Merry Christmas