Why would Stroman suddenly be better than Sanchez? Oh, I know, It's because Stroman is more likely to hang a breaking ball than to walk a hitter.

This question was posted on the other thread.  This Tony Blengino article might give a partial explanation.  Essentially, Blengino's research suggests that Sanchez was luckier with the contact that he allowed than Stroman was.  Blengino looks at exit speed and angle of each ball-in-play off the pitcher.  Stroman ended up with a slightly better contact score than Sanchez, but Sanchez had better results on contact.  When you factor in their very similar W and K rates, Stroman ends up with a lower true ERA.  If you look at it over the longer term, Stroman has an xFIP of 3.41 over his 351 major league innings as a starter while Sanchez has an xFIP of 3.98 over 258 innings as a starter.  It's true that Sanchez has a similar or larger ERA advantage, but if you accept the contact management research, it's easy for me to understand why Stroman's projection might be better.

Subjectively, I like both pitchers a lot and Sanchez much better than his career xFIP, but you don't want a projection system to venture into that territory. Sanchez hung plenty of pitches in 2016 and lots of them were hit very hard (how many times did Kevin Pillar save his bacon?)

The Blengino article offers no clue why Mike Bolsinger's projection might be better than Marco Estrada's.  I do shake my head at that.  Blengino's article gives a perfectly good explanation why Estrada outperforms his xFIP year after year- he avoids hard contact and in particular gives up weakly hit fly balls.  It's a winning formula although relatively few have been able to sustain it for a long period. 

Thanks Peter G for the info about protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft. It is something that I find interesting.

Also thanks Scottt about Devon White being to hitting coach for AA. I should help our AA outfielders with their defensive skills as well. Utility infielders can also learn the OF position. That versatility can be very useful.

And now they are offering 3 years to Cecil.

Well, that's sounds like a very bad idea. If that is the worst thing they do in the off-season, though, I can live with that.

Of note, Mike, is that the stroman projection is essentially in line with his career performance as an SP so far. There's nothing strange about it.

The issue is Sanchez' projection - we all hope he (and marco) continues to beat his underlying numbers but we have to rememeber that that is still the outlier scenario.

And for the record, both Stroman and Sanchez had their first full seasons as SPs at age 23. Stroman posted a posted a 3.29era as an SP, sanchez a 3.00.

A question to Mike. Why Mike Bolsinger's projection is compared to Marco Estrada's ? Is it because their pitches are usually flyballs when hit ?

Further to my comment about Bolsinger, here are projections and 3 year MLB stats courtesy of uglyone in the other thread:

Projections-

SP Stroman 3.68era, 3.9war
SP Liriano 3.92era, 3.1war
SP Sanchez 3.99era, 3.0war
SP Happ 4.15era, 2.7war
SP Estrada 4.67era, 1.8war
SP Bolsinger 4.36era, 2.5war
SP Reid-Foley 5.26era, 0.3war

3 year MLB statistics:

Sanchez (24): 41gs, 6.3ip/gs, 74era-, 94fip-, 95xfip-, 4.2awar/32gs
Stroman (26): 56gs, 6.3ip/gs, 91era-, 82fip-, 81xfip-, 3.9awar/32gs
Happ (34): 107gs, 5.7ip/gs, 94era-, 97fip-, 102xfip-, 2.9awar/32gs
Estrada (33): 96gs, 6.1ip/gs, 94era-, 110fip-, 112xfip-, 2.7awar/32gs
Liriano (33): 115gs, 5.8ip/gs, 96era-, 95fip-, 89xfip-, 2.6awar/32gs
Bolsinger (29): 36gs, 5.2ip/gs, 121era-, 110fip-, 97xfip-, 0.7awar/32gs

You would get the idea that Bolsinger is a good option for a sixth starter and that Estrada is an average starting pitcher at best.  It's bizarre on both counts.  Bolsinger struggled mightily at both the major and minor league levels in 2016, and has had an up and down career.  He has an Estrada-speed fastball and a good slider, but no really effective weapons against LHBs (and they have killed him over his career).  Strangely, he has faced significantly more RHBs over his short MLB career and that has led to the pleasant-enough xFIP number.  Even that xFIP number is deceptive though.  He has given up a lot of hard contact, and so it is not really a surprise that the fly balls and line drives hit off him leave the park at a disproportionate rate. 

It might be that Bolsinger can learn and develop a better weapon against LHBs, but projecting that he will do so is a mistake.   On the other side of things, projecting that Estrada's xFIP over the last 3 years is a better indicator of how he is likely to do in 2017 than his ERA over the last 3 years is also a mistake.  Blengino's contact management article, linked above, illustrates why.

One more thing about the projections.  They take very little account of late season injuries and especially post-season injuries.  We know that Liriano suffered a mild traumatic brain injury which kept him out of the Cleveland series, and we have no idea whether or not it will affect his performance in 2017.  A reasonable projection system would discount some for that, both in terms of innings pitched and performance.  How you do that is a good question.  We do not have a sufficient sample size to draw conclusions on performance after a concussion-DL stint. 

With Dickey in Atlanta, do they Braves need or even want Thole?

I assume that Thole will be non tendered. If Braves have any interest, they will simply wait till that happens.

Looking at the list of projections for starters I still don't see much need for the Jays to blow much on 6th starter options. Stroman/Liriano/Sanchez/Happ/Estrada make for a very good 1-5. Bolsinger's projections suggest he is an excellent #6 and Reid-Foley's suggest he would be an endurable #7. So a few AAAA types to stash in AAA (like Casey Lawrence) should do the trick as they'd probably get no more than 1-5 starts total. If your #8 and beyond guys get more than that you are in trouble anyways and probably have bigger issues to deal with.

For example.... Jay playoff teams and # of starts for #7 and beyond
2016: #7 starter (Hutch) 2 starts, #8 and beyond 0 starts
2015: #7 (5 starts) Norris, #8 and beyond 14 starts (largely thanks to Stroman being hurt most of the year and Sanchez being limited on innings)

1993: #7 Scott Brow 3 starts, #8 and beyond 1 start
1992: #7 David Cone 7 starts, #8 and beyond 5 starts (Hentgen & Linton)
1991: #7 Denis Boucher 7 starts, #8 and beyond 9 starts
1989: #7 Gozzo 3 starts, #8 and beyond 10 starts
1985: #7 Davis 5 starts, #8 and beyond 6 starts

So for Jay playoff teams #8 and beyond had between 0 and 14 starts. Often the guys for #8 and beyond got 2 or 3 starts each at best. 0/1/5/6/9/10/14 starts for #8 and beyond.

You NEED a good #6 without a doubt, and if Bolsinger is as good as projections make him out to be then the Jays are in good shape. #7 and beyond you like to have a batch of kids who are almost ready (ala 2015 with Norris & Boyd while Sanchez & Stroman got starts but not as many as desired) so they can get broken in easily with a spot start or 2. I'd like the Jays to sign someone to be the #7 guy ideally for no more than $2 - $3 million (would be the #7 guy in the pen) and 2 or 3 good AAAA guys (give them a better pay than they'd get from most other clubs to draw them in, up to $1 mil each). Biagini might be #7 if left in AAA to start. I could see that happening easily.

for reference

Jays last year:

3B: 714pa, 137wrc+, 6.6war
CF: 660pa, 83wrc+, 3.6war
SS: 666pa, 98wrc+, 3.4war
2B: 665pa, 98wrc+, 2.7war
DH: 662pa, 121wrc+, 2.1war
1B: 695pa, 111wrc+, 1.9war
LF: 686pa, 101wrc+, 1.6war
C: 659pa, 80wrc+, 1.1war
RF: 705pa, 103wrc+, 0.5war


I was hoping to shore up the weak slots there efficiently by, in order:

C: a reasonable backup catcher that wasn't a disaster like Thole. Wouldn't cost much and would provide a nice upgrade.

LF/RF: go cheap speed and defense. lose offense here but make up for it (or maybe even improve on it) via speed and D.

1B/DH: plow money into the best bats we could find here, so that we don't have the likes of Smoak getting a quarter of the playing time.

but downgrading to Morales at DH upends that approach now, so hopefully we still have some upgrades left in the plans.

Backup Catchers are never that much good. But if he excels in just one area then he's worth his keep.

backup catchers usually aren't very good, true, but i'm hoping the FO can find something better than a 27wrc+ and -0.8war in 172pa from the spot next year.

They can probably do better than that by looking under a rock. But what do I know :)

but downgrading to Morales at DH upends that approach now, so hopefully we still have some upgrades left in the plans.

I disagree. I fully expect Morales to come close to equalling E.E.'s numbers. But I don't think he should play 1B more than once or twice a week in any need.

I guess we are back to waiting for Fridays for the Jays to report anything.

Ugh, no three-year $20M contract for Cecil. Please no.

Jacob Turner is a minor league free agent.  KATOH likes him best of all the free agents, and I am inclined to agree.  He was moved to the pen at the major league level in 2016, and added velocity but struggled with his control and was knocked around for 24 innings.  He then did reasonably well in the triple A rotation. 

Personally, I like his chances better than Bolsinger's but it's good to have 3 or 4 of these guys around. 

I did not know that attendance was slightly down in MLB overall in 2016.  The Jays had by far the biggest improvement in attendance (not that 2015 was bad). 

davidi says jays offer to EE was 4/$80.

that's a strong fair bid but i hope there's a little bit of flex left there.

4/80 - that's too rich for me - I hope somebody steps up and sign EE before the Jays do something stupid - I'd rather sign fowler for 4/60 & Reddick for 3/36

I agree that the offer to EE was too much (term). Jays have walked away and are actively pursuing Reddick. Don't think they are in on Fowler.

Reddick and Pearce are the immediate targets.

Should that plan fail, would anyone consider Coco Crisp on a one year deal?

4x20 for EE would be a great deal IMO, as would Cecil for 3 years and 20 million. 

The minor league FA projections are always fun, but the article also notes how only about 1% of those guy produce as much as 0.5 WAR the following year. 

That said, I hope we do stock up on a few Turner-types.  But if the 5th best of the bunch is our own Wilmer Font, I'm not counting on much.  

Have we had any success stories with this route in the past?  I had thought Schultz and Cola, but when I checked I found they were both claimed on waivers. 

Also worth noting on Fangraphs is that Morales is the number 4 FA 'landmine' to avoid according to Dave Cameron, who also notes the similarity to the Billy Butler deal with Morales.  But than again, Cameron has Edwin at number 3, and that's assuming he signs for 4 years between 80-90 million. 

To uglyone:

Given the backup catching void, is inviting a few backup catcher candidates as NRI and deciding who wins the job in spring training a better strategy than signing one catcher who is then marked as the backup catcher ?

Russell Martin is staying so a catcher who thinks having realistic change of significant PAs would have not signed with the Jays to be a backup. So those who sign may know themselves they are not good enough for significant MLB PAs. Spring training decides who wins

Cameron is well worth reading with a lot of good things to say as does Fangraphs in general. However. some of their stats are flawed and not to be considered gospel. He is totally out to lunch on Morales imo. It is a MUCH safer deal than what was offered to EE who may well (likely) will decline going forward. U don't pay for the past. U pay for what u believe to be the future.

The most important piece of data when looking at next year's projection is actually last year's projection.

I've seen mention of Butler a couple of times now as a comp for the Morales signing, and I don't get it, at least not the way I look at players. Butler entered the big leagues at a young age, when he was 21. His OPS in his 1st 2 years was in the .700's. As he matured as a player, he improved to an .853 OPS in his age 23 season, his 3rd year. He maintained an OPS well over .800 for 4 years, peaking in his age 26 season at .882. He then went into decline, down to .787 the next year and to .702 the year after that. At that point he became a free agent, and I wouldn't have even considered signing him. It looked very strongly to me like he had peaked and was quickly losing his skill set. I thought the contract he got was crazy. Morales doesn't appear to me to be in a significant decline yet, and I expect he has a fair bit of good baseball left in him. Yes, he declined last year compared to 2015, but I believe that is mainly due to the extremely poor start he got off to last year. His last 400 plate appearances last year produced some outstanding numbers.

Fielding independent projections are misleading when looking at players who will be pitching in front of the same fielders. Actually, I'm still hoping that the Jays improve the outfield defense, so most of the pitchers beat those numbers handily.

It seems obvious to me that Stroman does better on the fictive ERA because he issues less walks than Sanchez.
Estrada, as always, gets punished for his fly balls. xfip give credits for ground balls, so Happ doesn't do as well on that.

Without looking too much into it, it would seems like Bolsinger's high ERA and decent xfip would point to getting shelled on ground balls. He could be serviceable in front of a good defense, but I'm more comfortable with stretching Biagini for a couple of months.

The Liriano numbers are interesting but don't really tell us anything that we don't know. He struggled with control before coming to Toronto and didn't pitch enough to completely dispel the issue. I think AL hitters have lost their familiarity with him and that should play to his advantage.

I read a Dallas article that suggested the Rangers should stay away from EE who could cost up to 4/50.

I saw a rumour that Reddick is more likely to sign with Baltimore because he has always hit well there.

I've heard Adam Eaton mentioned a couple of times as a possible acquisition for the Jays, as the White Sox are in a rebuilding phase. He put up almost identical offensive numbers the last 2 years, with an OPS just a tick below .800, will be 28 years old for next season, is left handed, gets on base very well, hits a few home runs and is a good defensive right fielder. He has a very attractive contract with 3 more years plus 2 options. Seems ideal, but he would be costly to acquire.

4/80 is more than fair given his age. If Edwin said no to that, then you wish him well and move on.

I like the idea of going with Reddick and Pearce. A platoon of Reddick/Upton can be really valuable in RF/LF, and Pearce can platoon with Smoak (I guess) while being versatile enough to cover a few positions. I'm not sure Reddick will end up signing a reasonable contract, though. The position player market is not very good, and he's one of the top OF's available by default.

Ideally the Jays get two OF's, one that can platoon with Upton and another that can play everyday, as well as a RH bat that can platoon with Smoak if they insist of starting him against RHP. A bench of Upton, Pearce, and Barney would look pretty good, though if they did sign Pearce, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't take long for him to win the 1B job full-time over Smoak.

4/80 is more than fair given his age.

Emphasis on 'more than'. If that rumour is true, I hope that one of the years or more was a team option or at least a vesting option.

for the record, again, ERA is also "fielding independant" and "fictive".

4/80 is definitely more than I would have offered for a DH/1B in his mid-30's. The team that beats that offer is probably going to regret it unless Edwin fights aging better than Bautista thought he could.

I wouldn't be surprised to see EE get 4/92 or 5/110. I see an article on Rotoworld that the Jays are one of the 4 teams most interested in Beltran. Given that he'll be 40 next year, he's not getting a long term deal, which would seem to be in keeping with the current management's style, at least in terms of players they are acquiring from outside the organization. I would expect that Beltran would be used at least some of the time as a DH, so the team must be comfortable with Morales playing some 1B. Beltran used to be a good fielder, but he hasn't had a positive dWAR year since 2009. Guy still can hit, though. OPS in his last 4 healthy years (omitting 2014 when he missed 50+ games), .842, .830, .808 and then .850 last year, which is right around his career OPS of .845. Rotoworld estimated his salary for 2017 to come in at $10-12 million. He's a true switch hitter, with very little difference hitting righty or lefty - career OPS is .019 higher batting right handed.

I think the front office is much more knowledgable and much smarter than those who would have offered hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars to Prince Fielder, David Price, James Shields, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Ubaldo Jiminez etc ad nauseum. I suspect that the moves from the offseason will entail more than simply spending whatever agents want on what someone else accurately referred to as the 'sucker market', the free agent crew.There is no doubt that there will be a lot of noise cycling the regular 'We didn't get the most expensive free agent possible, What a ripoff!" line, but I'm pretty confident most of the paying public are interested in seeing how the offseason plays out and will likely be relatively pleased, or at least interested an open-minded, in the end .

he's not getting a long term deal, which would seem to be in keeping with the current management's style

My guess would also be that Beltran won't end up with a long term deal but I doubt he would have come to Toronto without one. He can get a one-year without leaving the US, and he's a guy who cycled his St. Louis deal with the Yankees before signing with the Cards. I doubt Toronto is on his radar on a quickie one-year. I also suspect Toronto already shopped there and it wasn't going to happen unless they signed him into his age 43 or so year.

What I do think is that the current management style is not giving up draft picks at this point in time for the privilege of signing sucker deals so a conversation with Beltran would have been partially sparked by the absence of a draft pick loss. I don't think this front office of Shapiro/Atkins/LaCava/Cherington/Murov/Sanders/Brown etc was put together to build a two-year competitor. I suspect they are playing the long game.

The First Base Market is poor to say the least. Pearce can hit LHP very well. He also plays 3B better than 1B. This past year he has hit RHP better. It's possible between the games Pearce can play at 1B, the games Morales might play at 1B and the games Smoak must play at 1B, the Jays could be OK. To acquire anything better must be via the Trade Market. Then it gets expensive.

I've been saying for months that 4/80 is a good fair offer on EE, and likely not a winning one, but one I'd be happy if we had.

Beltran for 1 year/12 would be great.

Frankly, I'm skeptical about the reported 4/80 offer - this is probably a PR stunt by the FO using the Rogers media - most fans will be satisfied with this offer and when EE signs elsewhere the anger will be muted - much like the Red Sox did with Lester - use the media to say they made a good enough but not winning offer - the Jays want to finish in 2nd place in the EE sweepstakes.

I had heard/read that the Jays offer to EE was for two years plus two options. It possibly could get to 80/4 but it would not have been a guaranteed 80/4.

for the record, again, ERA is also "fielding independant" and "fictive".

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip

To me the worse part of FIP and Xfip are the "constant" use to bring it in line with ERA, as that somehow implies that the results will change over time to match FIP.

It's the power of hindsight on fitting a curve or a spline to a measured outcome.
The extrapolation can never be better than the intrapolation and the correlation isn't particularly good there.

Here's a number that captures HR, BB and Ks along with HBP. That's all it is.

Also consider Stroman:

His FIP has gone from 2.84, to 3.54 to 3.71.

Why would this indicate that he's getting better?

Leaking the 4/80 figure to one of your in-house beat writers but actually offering 2 years at 40-50 would be quintessentially Rogers.

I think it's sad to see how rogers has battered so many jays fans into believing we are a small market team, and that the top of the free agent market is a suckers market, despite most all of the best teams utilizing it.

Scott:

1. Strikeouts, Walks, and Homeruns have always been crucially important in projecting player performance, long before fip was coined. baseball scouts and minds knew to look past era long before fip was around.

2. it's not a matter of wanting fip to be important, but rather that on average it has simply proven to be important

3. every war i've used here averages ra9 (the purest distillation of non-fictive "what actually happened") and fip war. so it's not even biased towards fip.

4. Stroman's fip- has gone from 74 to 86 to 86. his xfip from 84 to 83 to 80. All excellent and consistent numbers. His era-has jumped from 86 to 41 to 102 - wildly inconsistent. Which is what we expect when we known that era is a much noisier number which includes so many things outside a pitcher's control, while fip and xfip measure more of what a pitcher actually controls.

5. I loved the estrada pick up when we first traded for him, because despite his horrific era, all the underlying fips and xfips said he was pretty good.

and I still say EE is going to have a hard time finding teams willing to significantly beat 4x$20.

I loved the estrada pick up when we first traded for him, because despite his horrific era, all the underlying fips and xfips said he was pretty good.

Horrific ERA?  Estrada's ERAs in Milwaukee his last 4 years were 4.06, 3.64, 3.87 and 4.36.  His FIP and xFIP were somewhat better on average, but the differences were small.

Estrada has stranded more runners, had an even better BABIP and reduced his HR/FB rate since he arrived in Toronto.  This has more than offset the deterioration in his W/K data.  It's not exactly a story about the predictive value of FIP and xFIP...

he had a 4.96era his last year starting in milwaukee, giving up the most HR in baseball, before losing his spot and being shunted to the bullpen.

"...Homeruns have always been crucially important in projecting player performance..."

"he had a 4.96era his last year starting in milwaukee, giving up the most HR in baseball..."

"I loved the estrada pick up when we first traded for him..."

...

"No, dig UP, stupid!"

thank you for giving us a textbook example of selectiom bias.

thank you for giving us a textbook example of selectiom bias.

I figure it's the only way you'll learn.

I will always defer to the stats that are inclusive of isolated stats, not take single isolated stats out of context.

Stroman's 56-start career as an SP breaks down neatly into 4 14start segments.

1st 14: 80era-, 75fip-
2nd 14: 76era-, 81fip-
3rd 14: 120era-, 87fip-
4th 14: 86era-, 81fip-

I would guess the projection systems are probably wise to see that 1/4 as an outlier at this point.

But we'll see what happens.

With Dickey in Atlanta, do they Braves need or even want Thole?
I assume that Thole will be non tendered. If Braves have any interest, they will simply wait till that happens.

Given that A.J. Pierzynski was the only LHB backup catcher for the Braves and Dickey's signing, Thole teaming up with Dickey in Atlanta makes sure for the idea that Thole can also catch other pitchers and his hitting would improve in the NL.

About the backup catching. Given Martin is the starting catcher, can a cycle or trials of backup catchers happen in Toronto and Buffalo. A backup catcher begins 2017 season in Toronto, hopefully a LHB. Then once the coaches knows that backup catcher needs to fix his flaws, the catcher goes to Buffalo. A backup catcher who has only minor flaws to say the least will not be a backup catcher and is not going to begin the season with Toronto. Then the another backup catcher in line is brought up to be analyzed and take up backup catching duties simultaneously. Obviously, all these backup catching options are seen in spring training so pitchers knows them.

In other words and the bigger picture, can the slots of backup fielders and starting fielders in Buffalo be used to develop values for the players involved -- prosepcts, non-prospects and veterans. Then a buying low selling high management is realized this way.

I prefer A J Jimenez as the back up for this year. Even if that is the plan, still need to sign a couple of C's to minor league contracts That usually happens later in the off season. Reese McGuire will be at Buffalo but better he stays there the season. Need a vet or 2 to call up if injuries happen.

The problem with planning to use AJ Jimenez is his lengthy injury record. If you plan to use AJ, you better have an equivalent player waiting in AAA.

I am not averse to giving him a chance but you need insurance.

I agree and did mention that a couple of C's needed on minor league contracts as insurance. A major league contract is ok if minimal and can be dumped if AJ wins job and is healthy. There will be C's looking for jobs in January so I would wait.

What's the reasoning behind giving Jimenez the inside track? His bat seems to have the potential of being Tholian, and his defense sounds average. I can't see much that he brings to the table besides "been in the org for a while".

A J is athletic and while not a great hitter. he is better than Thole for sure. Hit .241 last year at Buffalo. Remember that Martin hit .231 with Jays. AJ does not have as much pop as Martin but way more than Thole. That comparison is silly imo.

The big attraction is 55% throw out rate of potential base stealers last season and 48,8% over minor league career. He is reputed to be a good, better than average receiver as well. This according to Bison announcer Ben Wagner.

Yes, they have to do better than Jimenez. He has a career OPS in the minors of .691. He has spent at least a little time in AAA each of the last 4 seasons, and has hit .245 with no power, few walks, and no speed. He'll be 27 in May. I don't see him as a viable major league catcher unless he's an ace defender and from what I've read, he's not. Martin probably shouldn't be catching more than about 110 games, and I don't think you can tolerate that kind of "offense" from a guy playing 50+ games, more if Martin gets hurt. At least get a guy who can pop a few HR's or take some walks.

why do you think Jays added him to 40 man? He has at least a 50/50 chance of being the back up C I would think. I do not believe a journeyman would be better and spending big on a back up would be a waste imo.

FO is as much about development as winning now, maybe more. That should be taken into account.

According to MILB, Jimenez has thrown out 195 runners and allowed 298 steals over his minor league career, which is 39.6% Last year he threw out 26 and allowed 49 steals, so 26 out of 75, which is 34.7%

Still good but if wrong it came from here:

https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=aj+jimenez+throw+out+rate

3rd entry

We will have to agree to disagree on Jimenez. Even if the lesser stats are the correct ones, it is still outstanding when you consider that about 20% is considered average. Martin was less than that last season.

I apologize if my posted stats are wrong but I posted where I saw them....perhaps too hurried to see if more there.

Free Agent Catchers, with Steamer proj

W.Ramos (29): 312pa, 97wrc+, 1.6war, 3.3war/650 (knee injury)
M.Wieters (41): 404pa, 88wrc+, 1.9war, 3.1war/650
C.Iannetta (34): 241pa, 93wrc+, 1.1war, 3.0war/650
A.Avila (30): 334pa, 85wrc+, 1.2war, 2.3war/650
J.Castro (30): 360pa, 81wrc+, 1.1war, 2.0war/650
G.Soto (34): 242pa, 78wrc+, 0.6war, 1.6war/650
N.Hundley (33): 302pa, 79wrc+, 0.7war, 1.5war/650
K.Suzuki (33): 332pa, 80wrc+, 0.7war, 1.4war/650
J.Salty (32): 182pa, 78wrc+, 0.4war, 1.4war/650
D.Navarro (33): 244pa, 81wrc+, 0.5war, 1.3war/650
D.Butera (33): 210pa, 62wrc+, 0.1war, 0.3war/650


A.Ellis (36): 1pa, 91wrc+, 0.0war, 2.4war/650
S.Clevenger (31): 61pa, 86wrc+, 0.2war, 2.1war/650
A.Pierzynski (40): 1pa, 79wrc+, 0.0war, 0.8war/650
R.Hanigan (36): 1pa, 67wrc+, 0.0war, 0.8war/650
H.Conger (29): 1pa, 75wrc+, 0.0war, 0.7war/650
J.Mathis (34): 1pa, 60wrc+, 0.0war, 0.2war/650
B.Wilson (34): 53pa, 56wrc+, 0.0war, -0.2war/650

W.Rosario (28): 1pa, 90wrc+, 0.0war, ???war/650

Per Fangraphs, the average caught stealing percentage in all of mlb last year was 28.3%, so Jimenez seems to be a little better than average, although I'm not sure how his minor league CS %'s would translate to the big leagues. Just seems to me like a guy who would hit about .210, .220, with no power and few walks. I know most backup catchers aren't great, but there's got to be something better than that available.

I am sure that there is but at a price? Wait it out, bring in a couple on minor league deals to compete with AJ at ST. There is no pint adding him to the 40 man roster without giving him an opportunity when he is out of options. Does that makes sense or not?

20-25% is still considered average for a catcher, majors or minors. Guess the quality of base stealers is dipping. If so, an adjustment may have to be made.

I don't think Matt Wieters is 41.

Wieters is 30.

Stroman's 56-start career as an SP breaks down neatly into 4 14start segments.

I'm not sure how you mix games started in different years together. era- and fip- aren't counting stats. They are normalized to their own year.

Must be Withers who is 41.

Jiminez is probably good enough. I think people forget how low the bar is on catcher offense. For instance, if Jiminez could translate his .691 career minor league OPS to the majors he'd have been #35 of the 69 catchers who had over 100 plate appearances. His OPS last year was .668, which would have put him at number #40. If you pencil him in for a bit of regression and give him a 600 OPS he'd still be #57.

#57 of 69 obviously isn't great, but it goes to show that even if he hits badly he's better than a lot of team's catchers (Thole was #67 of 69, for the record). And if his fielding / arm are good then he won't be a disaster.

Still, it'd probably be good to give him some competition during spring training. It's not a guarantee he hits even .600, though the fact that he doesn't strike out much probably improves his odds of doing so.

Latest rumour - EE offered 4 years $120 million by the Yankees. Analyst on The Fan now is saying he wouldn't be surprised if that is close to the truth.

...which might tell you something about the salary cap in the new CBA.

what I heard (and it came from Bowden who is usually wrong imo), is that the Yankees are conceivably a team that could do that and not that they have. It would be totally stupid to do so as no-one else would come close. Must have been a real slow day at ESPN.

As a plus Jimenez already has some familiarity with some of the pitchers and had amazing result when working with Barnes for example.

If he doesn't do well, then it's very easy to do better a couple of months in.
At the very least, I think he should break camp with the team.

I'm not sure how to react when I read that the Jays are talking to Beltran's agent. I don't really see where he would play.

Even with Morales, Toronto is still the best possible fit for EE.

Acquiring a Backup Catcher might not seem a significant acquisition. It should be the aim of the Jays to limit Russell Martin's playing time to no more than four games per week. Keeping him healthy long as possible should be a priority. The choice for Backup might need to catch more than 60 games also.

In-house with possibly Thole, Jimenez or McGuire might be an option. Wieters, Ramos and Conger are the top of the Catching Options and could be considered. The Jays need the best possible Backup/possible Starting Catcher they can acquire. Anything less might not be food enough.

I agree with what you say about AJ Scottt as my previous posts will attest. However, I don't see EE as any kind of a fit in TO now. He can't hold up physically to full time 1B imo.....too much risk in that regard. I think management has moved on and are simply looking at stop gaps while they wait for Tellez and I think that is the right call.

Need a vet or 2 to call up if injuries happen.

With A J Jimenez in the picture, former Jays J P Arencibia and George Kottaras are available. Do not bug me for perceived fetish of former or Canadians, Both veterans are essentially unheard of in the discussion of big name catchers: they can be had economically. Both players have some powers especially Arencibia undeniable. So when they pinch hit, their few HRs may help offense when Martin is resting. Don't mind the strikeouts because they are backups of the backup in Toronto.

So there you go, Martin > someone > Jimenez > Arencibia, Kottaras. Like pitchers, is cycling backup catchers between Toronto and Buffalo a good idea to keep them warmup for performance ?

For updating former Jays, Guillermo Quiroz is back as an Indians NRI in 2017.

[Limiting] Russell Martin's playing time to no more than four games per week. Keeping him healthy long as possible should be a priority. The choice for Backup might need to catch more than 60 games also. It looked very strongly to me like [Butler] had peaked and was quickly losing his skill set.

Those typed, the backup catcher or rotation of backup catchers shall contribute in offense. If so, Arencibia would be a nice backup because he hits for power. Not sure if Wieters would be signing with Toronto. Taking the Braves as an example, Tyler Flowers earns an average 7M annual salary while contributing a 0.7WAR. Wieters holds close to 2.0WAR in 2016. How much the Jays can spend on backup catching: 10M annual salary for a backup is unheard of

if rosters do expand to 26 in new CBA as has been rumoured, it might be feasible to sometimes carry 3 if necessary while sorting things out. I doubt JP would sign with TO. Kotteras is not Triple A calibre let alone filling in at major level. There will be many still available in January and more willing to take minor league contract than might be the case today/

I think the reason for Jiminez on the 40 man is that they haven't got anyone better...currently. If they find someone better, and you do hope they will, they can waive him off the forty man without qualms. on the other hand, if nothing better comes along, he's your least worst option.

This is an interesting article on Encarnacion's value.  I don't think that the comps with defensive value (Yount and O'Neill) are useful.  The Tony Perez, Reggie Jackson, Jack Clark, Lance Berkman and Carlos Delgado comparisons are fair though.  All of them hit between age 34 and 37, but one had a good size loss in production (Delgado), two had significant losses in time (Berkman and Clark).  Reggie Jackson, however, is not a bad comp and the WAR figure for him for age 34-37 (7.6)  is actually an understatement for a couple of reasons.  He gets dinged a bit for 1981 (the strike year) which falls in his age 34-37 range.  He was also used mostly in right-field where he had negative value.  The Perez comp is also reasonable- it works out nicely because Encarnacion slots in between Perez and Jackson as a hitter. 

I think that the upside for Encarnacion is that he produces 9-10 WAR over the next 4 years and a figure of about 7 is a reasonable expectation.  Pedro Guerrero is also a reasonable comp.  He was a great, great hitter who had his last excellent year with the bat at age 33. 

The $/WAR figure in the article is very speculative pending the new CBA. 

Have the Jays officially announced the Morales signing? They officially announced Gurriel Jr, and that signing happened on the same day as the Morales signing was leaked by the media. Probably not a big deal, but just curious behind the reasoning.

I was not too impressed with the pitching results of M Bolsinger.

As a starter he has to improve to help out. But as a ML reliever he could have decent value.

He is also Arb eligible, I believe.

that's a good article Mike. not sure i'm convinced but that's some thorough analysis.

I had heard/read that the Jays offer to EE was for two years plus two options. It possibly could get to 80/4 but it would not have been a guaranteed 80/4.

Gerry, that was the offer that was reported back in March as having been made before the season started. Encarnacion's team reportedly didn't counter, and I've speculated that this is because they intended to hold out for a five-year framework. According to Encarnacion's group, the Blue Jays made an offer during the 5 day restricted negotiation period after the season that they gave serious consideration to. I doubt very much it was simply the same offer. It's been reported as 4/80, although I hope that at least one of the years was at least a vesting option if not a team option.

Encarnacion wants to sell his age 38 season based on his age 33 platform year. It's a business, and if I'm advising him that's would be my advice too. This is his one shot at the brass ring. His negotiating team may be right that there's someone who'll bite on that, and I but I'm thankful it's not Toronto buying age 38 seasons at that price.

Definitely off topic from baseball:
Canadian Geographic has recommended [the gray jay] as Canada's new national bird, prompting many across the country to ask: "Why didn't they pick a Canadian bird I've heard of?"

A comprimise: how about the blue jays as Canada's new national bird.

CBDC, do you mean AA's management perform well that EE's contract ends at age 33 ?

Have the Jays officially announced the Morales signing? They officially announced Gurriel Jr, and that signing happened on the same day as the Morales signing was leaked by the media. Probably not a big deal, but just curious behind the reasoning.

Is it awaiting a medical? If so, it could be a matter of getting people together in the same city/country.

When it was first announced, it was as agreed to terms pending medical.

CBDC, do you mean AA's management perform well that EE's contract ends at age 33 ?

That's a good question. At the time, there were a number of contracts that were made to run through to 2016, either with options or otherwise. Part of that was no doubt because the organization had a financial model and willingness to make commitments during that period. But I have no doubt that the previous FO would have also obviously paid close attention to the ages of players to whom they were making financial commitments.

the new FO seems to exclusively add older players, to be fair.

Greybeards Reese McGuire, Harold Ramirez, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. certainly support your theory.

Every other front office is only adding young free agents, too...

true, I didn't count non-top-10 prospects in AA.

my bad. buddy.

Could it be 10 years ago that da Box last published ground rules for the site in the FAQ section underneath the bat flip logo?  Yes, it was (well the bat flip wasn't there then, but nevermind).  Those ground rules are well worth reviewing from time to time. 

Parker and Ugly.....I suggest you ignore one another for the next few days. No one wants to read your squabbles and as Mike Green mentions, there are rules for how to treat others.

The Encarnacion article brought up a point that hasn't been mentioned often enough. Encarnacion had 702 plate appearances in 2016, by far the highest of his career, so while the numbers on the surface look nice, it was with a lot more plate appearances than he normally has. The 3.9 WAR isn't as impressive as his previous seasons where he was producing better numbers with far less playing time (due to injury).

His wRC+ dropped to 134. His K% spiked to 20% (though K's were up around the league it seems). His GB% went up. His FB% went down, but the FB/HR ratio went up. Combine those factors with his body being a year older next season, and I just don't see how a 4-5 year deal makes sense for him. I thought three years was too much for Morales; five for Edwin would be nuts, and even four is pushing it.

Fair enough. My apologies, everyone.

hell in a handbasket

:(

That's an interesting article about EE, Mike. It seems to me that the comparisons are mainly quite dissimilar players, though. The vast majority hit far fewer HR's than EE did in the 4 years from age 30-33. The only 2 who were close were Delgado and Jackson. Looking at those 2 players, Reggie had a tremendous hitting season at age 34 and again at age 36, with oWAR of 6.0 and 5.0 in those 2 years. His age 35 year was the strike year, he also missed some time due to injury, including the start of the season, he got off to a terrible start, and then hit very well after the strike. His age 37 season saw him miss a lot of time due to injury and when he did play, he hit very poorly. Delgado had 2 very good seasons, hitting 38 HR's in his age 34 and 36 seasons, although his age 35 season was not as good, He was off to a fine start in his age 37 season, with an OPS close to his career average, but then he got injured and his career was over just 26 games into the season. I looked at a few of the other comp players, and the issue I see is that they typically had already shown significant signs of decline before their age 34 seasons, much more so than EE. Typically, their HR's had already started to drop off substantially. That is not the case with EE. His numbers are holding up much better through his age 33 season. I expect he will hit a lot better than the authors of that article anticipate over the next 4 seasons, with the big issue to me being injuries. If he gets injured significantly, sure, his results are going to really drop off, but if he is healthy I expect he's going to hit better than that group of comps over the next 4 seasons.

Why was my post from 3.53 blank?

Anyway I posted a link to a fangraphs article for 1B/DH BIP info.
Apparently Morales had some very promising numbers last season.
I'm happy to see some positive evidence for the signing.

According to Jeff Blair, regular season rosters will expand to 26 in new CBA in return for restriction on number of September call ups.

26 man roster way overdue. 25 man was great back in the 60's when teams used 4 man rotations and 6 man bullpens. Even 26 is pretty thin with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff.

agree Dan. Although I am happy to see 26, would have preferred 27.

Big win for the players association as that is 30 new jobs or more than a whole new team. Marginal players will be jumping up and down in joy - guys like Carrera, Pompey, Goins will all have one more slot to fight for. Or for guys like Gibbons to have a 13th pitcher all year long.

I'm not sure how I feel about the 26-man. I mean, just because teams want to carry eight bullpen arms doesn't mean that's how you SHOULD manage a team, right?

On the other hand, it'll get some close-to-ML talent a better shot at a career and a pension, and it's not like the league can't afford it.

Still, I'm a little torn. This has to be a concession to the PA; I just hope they don't have to give up too much on their end to get it.

As long as this doesn't turn into a nine-man bullpen type of scenario, I'd say I'm leaning in favour of it.

Even 26 is pretty thin with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff.

Well, it doesn't *have* to be a 12 or 13 man pitching staff...

Anyway, I'm fine with larger roster as long as it's used on position players. Not sure it will be though.

Josh Reddick goes to the Astros - Jays have to look elsewhere. Happy about the 26 man roster, actually 27 would have been better - 30 more jobs, the sport can afford it - hope everyday players get some more deserved rest.

Really upset about the Reddick signing. Houston also got McCann from the Yankees. They could be tough. Likely better offense and defense with these moves

26 man roster should/could affect the rule 5 draft for a team that is rebuilding.

The Buffalo/Toronto shuttle traffic can become more congested. My poor memory remembers D Purcey coming up for 1 start and then going back down.

IMO Boston will be considered a very strong contender next year. If so I am on record for this prediction. If wrong I should accept the backlash due to me. But over 50% of my opinion is based on the high praise Boston gets from our Bauxites.

4x$13 for reddick.

nice deal for houston.

That's true, bpoz... I hadn't considered that side of it. A rebuilding team could more easily carry a Rule 5 guy rather than that extra bullpen arm. Good point.

Hey Joe,

I can't tell you how upset I am that Josh Reddick did not sign here. It's not so much that the contract price, 4 years for $52 million, was reasonable.  No that's not it.  I have a confession- I was looking forward to a season of Careless Whisper.  But you can help me, Joe.  This business of Metallica or Slipknot or AC/DC (or whatever the banger du jour is) as closer entrance music is getting boring, never mind the Middle Class White Boy ditty that I heard way too much last year.  You can go Sister Rosetta Tharpe (Strange Things Happening Every Day or That's All), Aretha (Respect), Mavis Staples (Eyes on the Prize) or Paul Robeson (Summertime).  Work with me, Joe.  You're going to be a closer one day and I want you to rock the joint deep down.

Mike

Edwin's agent says tbe 4/80 rumor is "fairly accurate" and that they and the jays are still talking.

apparently we're talking with sean Rodriguez too.

i like it - wanted him as part of the liriano deal instead of one of those prospects.

Depending on what he is asking for Sean Rodriguez would be nice. Not often you see a guy playing 10+ games at 6 positions in a season (1B/2B/SS/RF/3B/LF plus a few in CF). Lifetime he has started 50+ games at 2B/1B/SS/3B/LF. Nice. Just a 91 OPS+ lifetime with his first 100+ year last year (126) - I'd expect him to be closer to 90 than 120 in the future especially at age 32 next year. MLBTrade Rumors says $5 mil a year on a multi-year deal is probably what he is after. 3 @ $5 per would be OK for a super sub if his defense is half decent imo.

Apparently the Jays are looking for a platoon for Justin Smoak. They must see something in Smoak. Rowdy Tellez is still possibly two years away. Josh Thole (Arb 4), A.J. Jimenez (no options) and Reese McGuire will likely compete for Backup Catcher. Ezequiel Carrera (no options) will most likely platoon with Melvin Upton JR. in Left Field. Right Field and the Bullpen will be the big spends baring Edwin returning. That might be why things go slow. All the other areas will be upgraded if the opportunity presents itself.

Not even a rebuilding team. Any team could stash an extra guy on the bench, Even a prospect that is still in A ball.

The consensus for Reddick was 3/36, the Astros gave him the extra year, which is usually what clinches a deal.
He's strictly a platoon player and his defense is trending down.

I would have loved him here.

Reddick would have been a good fit, and the price he signed with Houston was very reasonable even for a platoon bat. Maybe he just preferred playing in Houston.

I'd prefer Pearce to Rodriguez, but at this point, the Jays have to sign who they can sign. The benefits of free agency are maintaining the farm system and (in the case of FA's who don't come with the QO) keeping draft picks, but the downside of free agency is that you need two to tango.

Tomorrow's apparently the deadline to protect players from the rule 5 draft.

Guys the Jays could lose:

Alford, JD Davis, Borucki, Roemon Fields, Harris, Nay, Perdomo, Tim Lopes, Francisco Rios, Mike Reeves, Smoral and Urena.  Cardona? Leblebijan?

Astros are a problem for the Rangers, not us.
I'm sure they'll make a big move before too long.

the new FO seems to exclusively add older players, to be fair.

To be fair, that's actually how it goes.

What young players did the previous FO add?

Brett Lawrie? Colby Rasmus? I was going to write Esmil Rogers but then I remembered they traded a young Gomes for him.

They always went after guys like Oliver and Cordero.

lawrie 21 travis 24 morrow 25 rasmus 25 j.francisco 27 revere 27 cabrera 28 Valencia 28 santos 28 smoak 28 donaldson 29 johnson 29 happ 29 Reyes 30 (hendriks villanueva laffey jo-jo delabar rogers jeffress)

27, 28 is not young if you're trading guys just a year away to get them.

Travis is the same age as Gose. Morrow was younger than League, but they give away an extra prospect.
Melky was 28 actually and came with a lot of baggage and was a complete bust the first year.

Trading prospects for guys who are arbitration eligible is not exactly going after young players.
Trading older players for young ones has rarely happened.

For most of his time as GM, AA didn't sign any free agents. When he actually went for it he traded several prospects for old players who had just underperformed.

And before that, when Ricciardi actually went for a big bat he signed the Big Hurt at 39 and it was a disaster.

The current FO is known for focusing on young players by developing them. Let's wait and see.

The 26-man roster makes the Morales signing look a bit better, as the Jays should have some additional flexibility to pinch-run for him (or use him as a pinch-hitter) in appropriate situations.

"....The current FO is known for focusing on young players by developing them...."

Let's not rewrite history.  The current FO has built three-fifths of its rotation on high-priced veterans:  Liriano, Happ and Estrada.  I don't know how this qualifies as "focusing on young players."

"...When he (AA) actually went for it he traded several prospects for old players who had just underperformed...."

And the current FO traded a prospect (Hutchison, in Buffalo) for an old player who had under-performed (Liriano).  In fact Liriano had certainly underperformed a lot more than David Price or Tulowitzki when the Jays acquired those two players.  Tulo had an OPS of .818 when the Jays acquired him, and he was coming off a season with a 1.035 OPS, so I'm not sure who the "underperforming" is referring to.  In any event, that's often how you build a winning team:  with a combination of veterans and younger players. 

Also, when assessing how the Jays were built, you cannot overlook the significant difficulty of acquiring free-agents who are leery of Canada.  We may have just witnessed another example of that now, since I'm sure the Jays were trying to acquire Reddick and failed to do so.  Everyone acknowledges that Canada can be a psychological barrier for players who have never played in Canada.  That's a problem that faced AA and now faces Shapiro and Atkins.  It's not a coincidence, I think, that most of the recently signed free agents (Estrada, Happ, Martin) were very familiar with the Jays and Canada.  It's easier to persuade those guys to sign with the Jays than it is to persuade a Reddick to do the same.

And to finish the thought in my last post:  that's why Anthopoulos had to make trades to acquire key veterans, rather than signing them as free agents.  And while the Morales signing is nice, we'll see if the current FO is able to use money to acquire free agents to fill the rest of the roster holes, or whether it, too, will have to make trades to acquire key veterans. 

Yankees trading of McCann probably means Carlos Beltran is going back to NY - I was hoping the Jays might land Beltran after missing out on Reddick.

Belttan is getting old to be in the outfield. He's been DHing a lot lately.

When I say current FO I include all the years in Cleveland, whether that's fair or not.

Young players for older players who underperformed was a reference to the 2013 season.
Reyes, Josh Johnson, etc... The Dickey trade was all about trying to contend in 13/14.

Hutchison is out of option now and wasn't good enough to crack the lineup, but what matters is they got a catcher and an outfielder who could make the team later this year for him, while Liriano is good enough to keep the team in contention for another year.

I think adding an extra million here and there isn't enough to sway a player. What it takes is offering an extra year. I'm not sure if the Jays offered 4 years, but I don't think they could or should have gone 5. That's what it is.

It's almost impossible to acquire young players unless they are flawed or you're willing to overpay massively.
The best way it to trade guys like Liriano at the trade deadline.

It's too early to evaluate the Shapiro regime but I'm satisfied with this year's result.

I don't see much chance that the majority of teams don't use the extra roster spot on another reliever. Look who gets used in September right now....extra relievers are most common. The rules around the September roster expansion might be better; sounds like a 28 man active roster limit, not changeable on a game-to-game basis, but maybe a series-to-series basis? The full 40-man roster expansion has always been a little much. I hate "bullpen" or "Johnny Wholestaff" games.

Pinch-running is such a marginal gain, and only applicable to a fraction of the roster, and it often requires two switches unless the pinch-runner replaces someone he can take over for in the field - that role is simply not coming back except for specific teams that have a great fit for the role of runner/defense replacement (the Jays might, but seem reluctant to use him).

Pinch-hitting is similarly not going to be a roster position most AL teams use, since most teams get reasonable offense from more positions than years ago. 2B was a top hitting position in the majors this year, for instance. Certainly the NL might have more to think about here...

Fans of alternate pitching staff proposals (tandem starters, few third-time through the order starters) might be happy though.

I don't see much chance that the majority of teams don't use the extra roster spot on another reliever.

I agree that this may well be the case. Ryan Tepera might have received an early Christmas present. He's a step closer to a regular MLB job.

Free agents for the most part are not going to be young. Since they need six years of service before hitting the market, they will almost always be in their late-20's or 30's unless it's an Osuna situation.

The front office's goal is not to get younger via free agency, it's to get younger via internal player development. In the absence of a prospect ready to take a big league spot, the route to take is acquiring short-term vets to hold the spot down until the prospect(s) is ready. That's what people often misunderstood about the criticism of the Jays system in regards to sustainability last season. It's not that it didn't have talent; it's that almost all of it was in the lower minors, so it was going to take many years for them to filter up to the big leagues (if at all). In situations like that, when prospects are not ready and many big league holes start to open up, the only logical step would be to get older free agents since they are cheaper and likely willing to sign for fewer years. The key is to target the right FA's (like Happ and Estrada....hopefully Morales falls under that criteria when we look back in hindsight).

There is a reason why the Jays are avoiding qualified FA's and why they are trying to add young minor league talent (Gurriel, Ramirez, McGuire) while also trying to field a competitive big league team at the same time. When Shapiro was hired this is what I envisioned his regime doing, and I have no problem with it. I don't know if it will lead to success in 2017-18 since I've always believed that post-2016 was going to be a possible transition period, but long-term they are doing the right thing.

""27, 28 is not young if you're trading guys just a year away to get them."

all I said is that so far the new FO has added almost all old players. that's a choice they've made based on their priorities, not something that was forced on them.

In situations like that, when prospects are not ready and many big league holes start to open up, the only logical step would be to get older free agents since they are cheaper and likely willing to sign for fewer years.

That means getting players who are 1) older -- but how many years older than the prospects. 2) free agents -- but what kind, such as major league, minor league, international and/or independent league. #3) willing to sign for fewer years. This criterion is easier to be achieved because those players looking for a chance to MLB.

Then for example, an aged 27-28 independent league players -- a top 30 on this year BA independent league prospect list -- who can play 1B in Buffalo so he could be called up to help Smoak. The same rationale goes for backup catcher to cover A J Jimenez. Also, why the media focuses more on international players from East Asia, Latin American and Europe instead of North American aged 27-28 players.

With the success of 2015, Shapiro had to try to win in 2016, there were expectations IMO. Lucky for him he had that success. It pleased the fans and eliminated a bad comparison to 2015.

2017 has me wondering if he has the same goal. If the potential production of EE and JB are not replaced then the Jays will have to win another way to make the post season.

I see the 2017 current rotation as much better than 2015 or 2016. Sanchez, Happ and Estrada are coming off very good years and Stroman and Liriano have the potential to be good. I am simply assuming that the pen will be better.

JD is still around so far. That points to some degree of trying to contend.

By Jan 1 that question will be answered by many opinions.

Our discussions have been mainly about adding position players. I understand this is where our biggest holes are.

I can see trading pitchers and also adding them. Happ and Estrada will bring back a lot. Happ's 20-4 record was a CY Young type of record. While Estrada was a .500 pitcher 9-9. Obviously misleading. Both had IP totals under 200.

Both had fantastic years. The $13mil question is...... can they repeat this.

There is insufficient depth at this time to trade a starting pitcher for a position player.

Excellent news from Tony Blengino. Kendrys Morales' conventional slash line/wRC+  in 2016 grossly understates what his fair production would have been given how hard he hit the ball.  Blengino predicts that Morales will outhit both Bautista and Encarnacion in 2017.  Very interesting.

the nice thing about our SP is that even if regression hits, there's just as much reason to believe the upgrades from stroman/liriano should equal or better the downgrades from estrada/fangraphs.

Nice article on Morales, Mike. The only part of the deal that I did not like was the 3rd year, but it was likely necessary in order to get him. Outside of that, I think it's fair value for what he can potentially produce, and articles like that certainly make me a bit more optimistic about him. He also graded out positively at 1B last season (albeit in a small sample size) so there's no reason why he can't play 1B as much as Edwin did from 2012-15 (occasionally).

With the success of 2015, Shapiro had to try to win in 2016, there were expectations IMO. Lucky for him he had that success. It pleased the fans and eliminated a bad comparison to 2015. 2017 has me wondering if he has the same goal.

First of all, I think you very much overestimate the extent to which the Blue Jays care about what is written on internet comment sections, most of which merits disregard.

What they do care very much about though, is how the team does in the marketplace. Theo Epstein gave an interview recently in which he stated that winning the WS will mean a somewhat different approach to the offseason than if they had not, in that the pressure has been taken off. The Blue Jays don't live in the same world as the Cubs. Although there are those who think that the Blue Jays and Cubs are comparable markets, they're nothing alike. There is, for example, a waiting list for Cubs seasons tickets of about 64,000. The comparable number for Toronto is 0. Zero. If you want to buy a pair of seasons tickets at third base 23 rows back, you can do it today. If you want to buy 10 seats together in that section, you can do it today. These are options unheard of in the Cubs' market.

The Blue Jays depend on winning, but not too much of it thank you, as the 90's proved. The Cubs' could afford to sacrifice 5 years to build a winner. The Blue Jays can't do that, and they won't. They know that the market for baseball in Toronto and Canada is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that the surge in ticket sales, and the improvement in broadcast audiences, is dependent on not returning to that horrible long period when every game from May on had an exhibition quality to it. When they had an 'in game host' at the Rogers Centre to entertain fans during games. When CBC in 2010 cancelled a broadcast contract because they were losing their shirt at $150k CDN a game. So I have no doubt that they will continue, as they have done so far, to plan on being competitive in respect o making the playoffs, while keeping a focus on the longterm competitiveness of the team.

What they do care very much about though, is how the team does in the marketplace. Theo Epstein gave an interview recently in which he stated that winning the WS will mean a somewhat different approach to the offseason than if they had not, in that the pressure has been taken off. The Blue Jays don't live in the same world as the Cubs. Although there are those who think that the Blue Jays and Cubs are comparable markets, they're nothing alike. There is, for example, a waiting list for Cubs seasons tickets of about 64,000. The comparable number for Toronto is 0. Zero. If you want to buy a pair of seasons tickets at third base 23 rows back, you can do it today. If you want to buy 10 seats together in that section, you can do it today. These are options unheard of in the Cubs' market.

The Blue Jays depend on winning, but not too much of it thank you, as the 90's proved. The Cubs' could afford to sacrifice 5 years to build a winner. The Blue Jays can't do that, and they won't. They know that the market for baseball in Toronto and Canada is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that the surge in ticket sales, and the improvement in broadcast audiences, is dependent on not returning to that horrible long period when every game from May on had an exhibition quality to it. When they had an 'in game host' at the Rogers Centre to entertain fans during games. When CBC in 2010 cancelled a broadcast contract because they were losing their shirt at $150k CDN a game. So I have no doubt that they will continue, as they have done so far, to plan on being competitive in respect o making the playoffs, while keeping a focus on the longterm competitiveness of the team.

There is an element of truth to this- the Cubs are to Chicago as the Maple Leafs are to Toronto.  However, the broadcast market for the Blue Jays is (I think) deeper than acknowledged.  In Canada in the summer, there is the Canadian Football League and the Blue Jays.  They have the sports market more or less to themselves.  Winning helps deepen it, of course, but a significant number of fans will watch (provided there is reasonable nationwide promotion) win or lose.  And because you are talking about a pool of 30-35 million, rather than a pool of maybe 10 million, the Jays have a long-term advantage over the Cubs notwithstanding differences in the persistence of enthusiasm ("the persistence of enthusiasm" is in the running for the title of Barack Obama's next book).

Good points Mike. The Jays market is growing and has a ton of potential to grow further - 20 years of mediocrity on the field does limit the growth of a fan base. But younger fans are growing up with happy memories of the Jays winning for the first time since the WS run.

Also worth noting, the Dome can hold something like 12000 fans more than Wrigley - scarcity is a clear factor in demand. And, cheering interests aside, its easy to see which stadium is more appealing for the fan experience.

I actually think the Toronto sports market is kind of exploding right now with the Raps and Jays reaching a new generation of passionate fans and every team in the city seemingly managed well and on the upswing. I certainly see a level of passion the past few years in my high school students that I didn't see in the decade prior.

Okay, the Argos, but hey, nice stadium right?

And that Blengino article is super promising on EE. I still don't really like the move, but the arguments made round here, and the articles posted, have convinced me to stop hating it. Cautiously optimistic even?

I think jays fans would happily deal with a fulltilt rebuild, most especially after an honest to goodness fulltilt attempt to win (regardless if they win or not).

It was the decades of payroll parameters, losing stars, trying to contend with 2nd tier players, and never coming close to even a race for a playoff spot, that lost a generation of fans, imo.

and I think they have a shot at winning the current generation of fans for life.

Totally agree with ugly in principle about rebuild buT we'll never know. Who hurt that nobody noticed I posted that blengino article twice... Or tried to anyway.

There is an argument for Dexter Fowler as a corner outfielder.  I think Reddick would have fit the Blue Jays' needs somewhat better, but Fowler would work too. 

I think Fowler would be great, but with a pick attached, it seems unlikely given the FO's cautious approach.

Now if we were signing multiple FAs with QOs attached - Fowler and Desmond? doubtless these guys are looking at up to $10 million less total for their contracts given the estimated value of a first rounder.

I was advocating hard for signing both Desmond and Fowler earlier this week. As you said, jerjapan, the cost of losing the pick is offset quite a bit by signing TWO qualified free agents.

After some reflection though, I worry a little bit about both of them - both of them are speed/contact guys with a lot of their value tied to defence, and those skills tend not to age very well. Obviously, though, those skills also happen to be exactly what the team needs, and their top hitting prospects are a slugging 1B/DH and a shortstop. Some solid outfield help would sure help the team, but the commitment might extend beyond when they're no longer solid.

As well, there's the logistical consideration - if the team agrees with some of us that losing the draft pick is a lot less painful if they get two qualified FA's out of it, and assuming they can sign the first guy to an acceptable deal, they kind of have to go all-in on the second guy. I love the idea of signing two qualified FA's but they don't come as a package deal... if the loss of the 1st-rounder to sign one guy isn't acceptable, but to sign two guys IS, the team is in a really tough spot if the second guy they want to sign keeps driving up the price. With Reddick already gone, it'd be hard to come up with a good backup plan.

I dunno. I'm glad it's not my decision to make, because it's a toughie. The more I think about it though, the more I'd rather the organization just keep the draft pick, sign some less costly options, and use the savings to ensure the money is there to extend Donaldson if he's willing to sign on long-term.

Huh, somehow I forgot about Alford. He might be ready in a couple years. Also, Pompey could still figure things out. Sorry, my bad.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Jays have claimed Diamondbacks righty Dominic Leone.

Oh also, Josh Thole is officially a free agent!

Rotoworld is saying the Jays are looking at Fowler and the guy I mentioned recently, Adam Eaton. I'd be careful with Fowler. If you pay him based on last year, you're going to be disappointed - he had a substantially better year than his typical performance level, with an OPS of .840, compared to his previous 2 years at .774 and .757. Before that, he was in Colorado, and even playing there, he only had 1 season over .800. He'll be 31 next year, and I would expect he'd be back down to the .750 range, with declines thereafter. Looking at his games played, he's only played more than 135 games twice in his 8 full seasons, and 4 times has been 125 or fewer, so he seems somewhat prone to injury. Defensively, he has produced negative 4 dWAR for his career, although that is exclusively in CF. Presumably, he would grade better as a corner OF, although there is the question of adjustment to a new position.

Fowler would be a great fit, but it comes down to whether the FO wants to outbid every other team to sign him (assuming he even wants to play in Toronto) and lose a pick at the same time. That's very highly unlikely. For where the Jays are, I think the better play would be to keep doing what they are doing (add young talent wherever possible, sign short-term FA's with no QO attached to fill holes, etc). It's not the exciting way to build the team, but short-term it can provide a ton of value to keep the big league team competitive while also giving the Jays more resources to make the farm system as strong as possible.

The hard part is actually finding the non-qualified FA's that can help. The list in this market isn't very good.

Yeah. I'll totally grant that Fowler doesn't come without a red flag or two, even without projecting.

Eaton would look GREAT for the Jays, but what would the cost be? He's averaged 5.1 bWAR the last three years and he's signed to an insanely team-friendly contract. The White Sox would have to be deranged to let him go without a giant prospect haul, even if they are rebuilding as rumoured.

Yah, that's the thing with Eaton - he'd cost a bundle.

Leone was terrific with Seattle in 2014 at age 22 despite skipping AAA ball. No idea what has happened to him since then, but he was terrible in 2015, traded to Arizona, put up some decent numbers in AAA last year, but didn't fare well in the big leagues. Kind of odd. Anyway, he's still only just turned 25, and that great 2014 season is only 2 years ago.

I highly doubt that Fowler or Eaton will end up in TO. I would target John Jay and even Coco Crisp (on a one year deal). I would consider overpaying for Sean Rodriguez as his ability to play so many positions will not become obsolete so term is not as much of an issue imo.

Atkins on Tim $ Sid, saying that Morales will play some 1b and OF and that he so wishes.

Fowler had a good year, got offered a QO, didn't take it, resigned for half the money, put on an even better year and got offered another QO. I don't think he gets offered the moon by anyone.

After the last election, Toronto might look attractive to non-white players.

It's not the OPS that's important for Fowler, it's the OBP. Imagine if Pillar could average 89 walks per 162 games!

There's 1 or 2 compensation picks coming back, so losing the first round pick could be bearable.
Probably beats what Eaton would cost.  Reddick got 4/52 so upwards of that.

Speculative Thought #1:
Sale and Eaton for Stroman, Pillar and a Reid-Foley or a Greene. Now add Fowler.

Speculative Thought #2:
Only if the money is available, why not add Weiters as Backup Catcher? Beats just Martin and some guy named who.

Jays add Alford, Urena, Borucki to 40

Think that package would be extremely light for both Sale and Eaton.

Don't think Weiters signs to be a back up.

Looks like Alford, Urena and Borucki added to the 40 man, they're at 39 on the 40 man now.

Weiters would not accept back up role imo and would be far too expensive for that role as well

Jays claim Leonel Campos and Dominic Leone on waivers. Both are right handed pitchers.

Yeah, there's no way the Jays are getting Sale and Eaton for such a light haul. I doubt they'd get ONE of those guys for that package.

I like these waiver claims.  High SO minor league relievers are sometimes valuable, even a 29 year old like Campos. 

Both pitchers claimed have an option year remaining and can be used on the shuttle. That is another reason they were claimed.

Looking at some of the players added to 40-man rosters lately, and seeing a few familiar names. Chase De Jong, who was traded to the Dodgers in 2015 for some International bonus room, and had a tremendous 2016 season at AA before a great AAA start. Only 22, he has developed very nicely for the Dodgers. Dawel Lugo, who had a very good season for Arizona, split between high A and AA at age 21. Was traded for Cliff Pennington. Of course we all are familiar with Franklin Barreto with Oakland, their last hope of salvaging something truly major from the Donaldson trade.

I see ex-Jay Tim Collins has elected free agency after missing 2016 with his 2nd TJ surgery. Tom Wilhelmson has been DFA'd. A couple of relievers to consider.

Outfielder Oswaldo Arcia has also been DFA'd. He's still just 25, and has put up some good numbers in the minors. Was probably rushed to the big leagues a bit too soon, but has managed to hit 44 HR's in under 1,000 AB's with a .720 OPS. Lefty bat

Interesting that the Jays see Morales as somewhat defensively flexible. If he can play 20 games in the of and 40 at first or something that would free up a lot of DH ABs. I still don't see how signing Beltran or another DH type makes sense anymore though. I would love a pursuit of Eaton if affordable as well as signing one of Pearce or Sean's Rodriguez.

I don't like Fowler that much and generally don't want to sign free agents coming off career years. You are paying for something they will never duplicate. A corner OFer is needed though and that night have to come via trade. Wonder what it would take to get Puig.

I suggested Eaton a month ago and was laughed out of the joint.

If the Jays want Eaton, maybe they could get David Robertson from the White Sox as well. A little pricey at 11 million for the next two years, but he'd essentially be another Roberto Osuna at the back of the bullpen, and insurance if Brett Cecil decides to sign elsewhere.

The point with Fowler is that nobody seems to like him that much, so he might still be available at a reasonable price.

He would be an improvement to about a dozen teams, but many of those don't need him that badly.
WAR that doesn't come from high batting average or high HR total does not seem to appeal as much.

Teams don't usually trade their best player when he's young and inexpensive.
The Reds GM said that the reason they are not looking to trade Votto is because he still produces.
That applies to Eaton. They can still trade him for a haul of prospect 2 years from now.

I'm expecting we'll end up with someone who isn't on anybody's top 10 list.

Eaton would be the best option out there as far as players that might actually be available, but the cost of acquiring him is the issue. It's the White Sox, so maybe there's a chance that they don't realize how good he really is, but he has five years of really, really cheap control left (3+2) and turns 28 next season. I would imagine it would take a ton to get him, probably more than the Jays would want to give up.

The White Sox have always fleeced us.

Tom Wilhelmson, Tim Collins, Oswaldo Arcia

Buffalo always need some fielders and pitchers; would these players sign minor league deals ?

Wieters AlexAvila Conger

Wieters is not going to sign to be a backup. His 2016 WAR outperformed some starting catchers on contract.
Given that Ryan Schrimpf broke out last season at age 28 and catchers tend to break out later (c.f. Erik Kratz in Philadelphia), signing age 29-30 catchers whose performance is too good for Triple-A but not good enough to be a starter is a good choice. In that regard, Avila and et al. are ones. I may have already express this idea before.

The Jays have reportedly signed Mike Ohlman to a minor-league deal.  He's a 25-year-old catcher who should be an upgrade over AJ Jimenez on the depth chart and could even be the major-league back-up catcher if he has a good spring.  He is a former top-10 prospect in the Baltimore organization, but didn't hit very well at the AA level and was traded to St. Louis, where his hitting improved.  He finally reached the AAA level last season and posted an OPS of .798 in the Cardinals PCL affiliate (in 186 plate appearances).  Throughout his minor-league career, he has generally found a way to get on base (.347 OBP), even though his power has sometimes been less than expected.  He has also played some games at 1B.  Not sure about his defence, except that he's said to have good arm strength.  He sounds like a better prospect than some of the other guys who played for Buffalo last year.

And in bigger Cardinal-related news, St. Louis has reportedly signed Brett Cecil to a 4-year deal that could exceed $30-million.

Like the Ohlman signing but don't see him as upgrade on AJ. Sign another C to minor league deal as well and let them duke it out in ST

I'd rather pay Jansen whatever he is asking them give Cecil that much.

I would have liked Cecil back, but not for four years. I think he will do well with the Cardinals, though.

"....Like the Ohlman signing but don't see him as upgrade on AJ...."

I should have clarified that I see Ohlman as an offensive upgrade on Jimenez but I don't know if his defence is as good as that of Jimenez.  And it's true that the decision to give Ohlman some playing time at 1B might indicate that the St. Louis evaluators saw him as perhaps projecting better at 1B than catcher.

Ohlman is a nice depth move, but losing Cecil hurts, and his signing makes Biagini to the Buffalo rotation less likely.  I'm not comfortable with the pen we currently have - filling the bottom two spots with Buffalo guys will be fine, but we need another late inning guy and a lefty middle reliever. 

As to the 40 man, I do worry about losing Perdomo.  Rios is another notable name exposed but without the swing and miss stuff Perdomo has I can't see him being chosen. 

a few minor league soldiers could be picked for a team looking for a pinch runner / defensive sub OF in Romen Feilds, a utility guy in Jon Berti or Jason Leblejian or a Loogy in will browning.  none are better than the sort of guys available on waivers or as minor league FAs, although I do like Leblejian as a utility guy.  Losing Rios or Perdomo would hurt though, both top 15 / 20 prospects for us right now. 

any exposed players that you guys think we should pick in the rule v?

I would be surprised if anyone took Perdomo (too far away) and if someone did, I would be more surprised if he was not returned. More Rule 5's are usually returned than kept I think but in any given year that could be different.

I still think Biagini begins at Buffalo as a starter is more valuable than a relever. Lot's of time yet to find relievers.

I won't complain about not giving that kind of contract to a non-elite reliever.

The Cecil contract makes me wonder about the Cards.

The Cards are going to pay $41M over four years for Matt Carpenter, who has produced in excess of 4 WAR each year over the last four seasons. They're paying for $10M per 4-WAR season. Now, they're going to pay Brett Cecil $30M for four seasons. Cecil has produced a TOTAL of 4.8 WAR in his last four seasons. He's going to be paid $30M to produce an expected value of 1.2 WAR per season, if he doesn't decline.

Good for Cecil - he's getting his payday, somehow.

Man, am I glad the Jays let him go.

Danny Jansen had a decent showing in the AFL, and is catching in the title game today.  He'll probably get another shot at Dunedin to start the year, and then move up if he hits.  He doesn't turn 22 until mid- April.

Fangraphs estimates that the going rate in free agency will be $8.5 million/win this year.  Cecil's contract makes sense in that context.  I like Cecil, but wouldn't do it.

there's nothing wrong with Cecil's contract valuewise - for me it's just not wanting to commit any real dollars to non elite RP ever.

Totally agreed, uglyone.

... I guess I'll be the optimist. Cecil's K and BB numbers speak for themselves, and I'll happily buy low on a pitcher coming off 37 lousy innings. Just think of what he would've been paid if he hit free agency after 2015. Obviously there's a good chance he's a minor albatross in year four. I don't mind - you're paying for the short term, what's $7.5 million these days anyway, and though the market for relievers may be stupid, if you're contending it does help to have a couple really good ones.

His 2016 went off the rails early, and I think he needs absolute confidence on the mound more than a lot of pitchers do - if your out pitch is a 58-foot curveball, and your get-ahead pitch is a 58-foot curveball, it must be hard to pitch with conviction when you're constantly looking up at CECIL 0-6 5.50 ERA or whatever it was, while the unwashed results-oriented masses just groan every time you bounce ball one. I think he'll return to form. Although I have to admit it will be fun watching Cardinals Twitter if he tanks again.

Speaking of relievers, I looked at the recent numbers of Dominic Leone, probably the better of the two relievers that the Jays picked up on Friday.  He had a great year for Seattle in 2014 at the age of 22, and then completely lost sight of the plate in 2015 when his BB/9 was 7.1 in the majors and 4.8 at the AAA level.  He went to Arizona last season and remained bad at the major-league level, but he rebounded strongly at the AAA level, where his numbers (in the hitter-friendly Pacific league) were quite good:  1.028 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9.  His velocity is said to be still close to 95 mph.  Maybe he can replicate the Joe Biagini path next season (and he even seems to look a lot like Biagini, according to the mug shot on his BR page).  And if he doesn't follow the Biagini path, I believe he still has an option year remaining.

Doesn't really seem like a Cardinals-esque move.

A full NTC included as well....

Great for Cecil. If he was going away I'm glad he got a killer contract and is out of the Jays division. 4 years $30+ million sounds too rich to me. Just shy of $8 mil per year so that part is reasonable but 4 years is 2 more than I'd think is ideal.

Yeah, it really doesn't seem like a Cardinals move, unless their front office is miles ahead of the rest of the league. And I'm not ruling that out. But is it possible they just bought into the "insane money for relievers" movement?

I'm not all that worried about the NTC. If Cecil performs anywhere near his contract value, there's no way he's getting traded. If he doesn't perform, no MLB team is going to WANT to trade anything for him.

As elite as he is, his HR/9 has skyrocketed since 2013. If it turns out the Cards are right about Cecil, I hope the Jays throw whatever money it takes to get the STL front-office guys who influenced the decision to spend this kind of money on him.

Yeah I don't get how Cecil gets a) that much money or b) that many years. He's been very good overall but goes through stretches of being mostly worthless. I guess every reliever slumps a bit at some point but I feel like Cecil has longer stretches. His peripherals were good this year, but his line drive percentage and HR/FB ratios were way up. I'd bet he's a very good reliever overall for another couple years, but I'm not sure he'll age well into his age 33 + 34 seasons.

How much would you pay a starting pitcher for 205 innings and a 2.90 ERA? Now how much would you pay a relief pitcher to accomplish that over 4 seasons?

Fantastic question Chuck. Not sure we can predict that ....... but we know it can and does happen.

I think it is worth $20-25mil per year. For the reliever we have to use division.

I am wrong about the reliever. He gets double or more.

Our AFL team won the championship.

Chuck that question does show how the value makes sense, but also illustrates to me why the first is a good idea and the second is not - imo it's many times easier in any given year to find a guy who can give that relief performance than it is to get an SP that can give that kind of performance.

How much would you pay a starting pitcher for 205 innings and a 2.90 ERA? Now how much would you pay a relief pitcher to accomplish that over 4 seasons?

You would pay that starter for his single dominant season, as every club has done in the past, illustrated by their willingness to pay arbitration money or sign a pitcher to a longer-term contract based on what they would receive in arbitration. Except no starter in modern baseball (other than maybe Rich Hill) gets a contract based on one season worth of performance.

Relievers are deployed in platoon situations (Cecil would be an absolute monster if he never had to face right-handed batters) so it seems foolish to project arbitrary value based on any projection of WAR over innings that the pitcher hasn't actually pitched.

Chuck that question does show how the value makes sense

Funny, my not-very-clearly-implied point was just the opposite! I have no room in my heart for a 50-inning pitcher making so much money.

Like the Ohlman signing but don't see him as upgrade on AJ. Sign another C to minor league deal as well and let them duke it out in ST.

I agree with this assessment. The Jays need a backup catcher who can definitely contribute in defense, pinch hit, one way or the other. Ohlman, given the stats by another poster, is likely gonna spend another season in Buffalo. While not against keeping to improve the minor league system, such transaction goes against the aim. For backups, duking it out makes sense for management.

Do the Jays need another backup OF ? Pillar and Ezequiel Carrera are gonna to take 1 1/2 OF playing time. In addition to a starting RF, how about signing an NRI like Darin Mastroianni duking it out with Pompey for the 5th OFer. Sometimes, I think guessing whom is signed as an NRI is overthinking: it doesn't really matter if Mastroianni returning to the Jays.

How can one tell which player is possible to break out ? 1st round pick was no guarantee. The Padres just DFA'ed Brett Wallace: wasn't he turn into Devon Travis in trades ? Maybe signing Wallace to duking it out at 1B in ST.

Happy birthday, Michael Saunders.  The big 3-0-.  The nice thing about him is that although he is young enough to be my kid, he doesn't look that young.  Or maybe I'm fooling myself. 

In 2014, after a great year (62 innings, 17 walks, 103 strikeouts, a 2.02 ERA), Andrew Miller signed a 4 year deal worth $36 million.  He's been pretty good value since then; OK, a little better than that.  It's not so much that Cecil pitches relatively few innings. Rather, it's that while he has been good over the last 4 years, good isn't worth that much.  Maybe the Cardinals think he can be great. 

How many games were lost in the last two years, including playoffs, where the Reliever(s) just wasn't good enough. It averages out to more than once a week. At any time it's bad, but it's crushing in the Postseason. 2017 looks like more of the same.

LHB are valuable, but LHP are worth their weight in gold. The better they are the more they are worth. The top Left-Handed Reliever on the Free Agent Market is Aroldis Chapman. He will earn $12.0 or more Million over 6 or more years. Available LHP/Reliever on the Trade Market will be pricey to acquire. This is where the Jays need to be working, must be working. Any LHR left in Free Agency isn't better than Aaron Loup. Any available Lefties in-house are much worse.

Managers win or lose depending on who the GM acquires. Those acquired, however, need to be good enough to start with. Top two, up the middle and the Back End are the most important people on a Team. They must be good enough. If there's anything left, work on the holes.

How many games were lost in the playoffs this year where the relievers weren't good enough? 0
And that's without Benoit.

Cecil's injury last year was crushing and they probably should have put Buehrle on the roster.

The Cards lost their lefty reliever to Tommy John's surgery. He was making around 5M, so they figure they could spend 7.5M to replace him. The 4th year is what it took to seal the deal.

It's the new reality. Almost every team has a chance at a wild card spot and the fight over free agents is fierce.
I like it.

Right Scottt.

Nice to be able to cherry-pick one's data to support your point.
In the 2015 Postseason, the Bullpen was the biggest issue in not going on.
In 2017, one of the best late inning relievers is being stretched out to start. Another effective relievers was signed away by another Team offering more.

It's simple, make the biggest and best offer you can, but hold your nose and offer one more year and one more million per year. You won't get everybody, but one or two must be best available. Fill-in as you can with the rest.

The focus right now is the outfield. Then maybe an utility guy who hit lefties well. Cecil wasn't a LOOGY, but with an extra man on the bench, maybe they'll just use 2 LOOGY.

Try Stroman and Pillar as part of the package. Go after Sale and an OF or after Verlander and and OF. Sign Fowler. Solves a lot of problems. Value for value can be found.

This is a good FO. They are responsible for a fair bit of the Cleveland success. They also brought in Francona to manage. They did well in preserving the competitiveness of the 2016 Jays. So I am impressed.

Their draft selections in June looks promising to me. Their hands were tied for the Inlt FAs in 2016. But 2017 could be good as they will be back in business.

The addition of R Borucki to the 40 man roster is a move I like. If his arm cannot handle starting then he could become a ML ready reliever fast. He started in Dunedin, which was a huge jump from short season ball and got hammered. That jump IMO meant that the Jays thought highly of him. He was outstanding in Lansing according to his stats. He gave up 1 Hr in 115.2 IP compared to Dunedin 20 IP, 40 H, 12 bb and 10 HR.

This off season will reveal their short and long term goals IMO. I expect 2 FA relievers to be signed to 2 year deals maybe 3 years.

I too am impressed with the FO. They are not going to make any stupid long term FA signings or trades. Money will not be the issue but term will be a BIG issue. All acquisitions will be on a short term basis. There will be help coming from the farm soon. John Manuel at BA thinks Jays have a top ten system though not all might agree. That was before Gurriel was added. With 2 extra first round compensation picks, we will be well positioned for soon to be sustained contention. That can't be done by trying to add long term FA contracts. If so, you become the Phillies, a path that the previous admin seemed to be on. I think FO will still sign 2 more position players. It is VERY early in the off season. It is possible that a reliever may need to be acquired by trade.

I wondered about how Fowler might age offensively.  This fangraphs article lists some comps, but I wasn't happy with the list.  Matty Alou?  Robin Yount? Jose Cardenal? 

Fowler has been getting it done in an unusual way.  He strikes out a lot, walks a lot, and has medium range power. He hits more line drives than average and runs well and doesn't pop up much so he has a high BABIP.  His OPS+ over his age 28-30 seasons is 118.  He has struck out in more than 25% of his at-bats.  I ran a Play Index who had an OPS+ between 110 and 126 in more than 1600 PAs between ages 28-30 despite a AB/SO rate of less than 4.25 from 1975 to the present. I got 18 names and they all had a lot more power than Fowler except Corey Koskie and Chase Headley.  I don't think Troy Glaus or Cecil Fielder or even Curtis Granderson is relevant to the discussion.  Both Koskie and Headley had high BABIPs (but lower than Fowler's as they had less speed) and somewhat more power.  Mike Cameron is also similar.  He struck out even more than Fowler but had more power.  Cameron held his offensive value better than Koskie and Headley despite having much worse K rates.  Fowler had by far the highest BABIP of the group save for Brad Hawpe who played in Colorado.

I wondered about relative K rates over time.  A player like Dick McAuliffe at times struck out a lot (for the times) and was broadly speaking about as effective as Fowler in a similar role.  So, I tried the search again.  This time for the years 1961-95 with a AB/SO rate of less than 5.  I came up with some names that rung truer to me- Chili Davis and Dwayne Murphy.  Davis had been a centerfielder in his youth and moved to a corner by ages 28-30.  He was mostly a DH in his 30s and was a significantly better hitter in his 30s than his 20s.  Murphy was slowed by injuries and only had 400 PAs once after age 30.  The one other thing that Davis and Murphy share is their role as hitting coach after their playing days were over. 

I can imagine Fowler following a path like Chili Davis', with a year or two in the corner outfield and then becoming a DH. 

Three of the best relievers in the pen last season were a combination of a Rule 5 pick and two near 40-year old's who other teams gave up on. If you are going to spend money on a reliever long-term, it has to be Chapman, Miller, etc, types. Cecil is good, maybe very good, but is not the type of difference making reliever that warrants a deal of four years + a NTC. The volatility of RP's in general makes that a very risky investment.

The biggest area of need right now is the outfield, and it's not even close. They need one OF who can hit RHP to platoon with Upton and another that can play everyday, and they'll have to find both in a weak FA market. It's not going to be easy.

The point made by bpoz about the possible transition of Borucki to a reliever is a good one. I can see that happening as early as this coming spring. It would certainly fill an organizational need. It's becoming too hard and expensive to find left handed relievers so grow your own: Girodo, Sneed, Borucki, Mayza, Young. One or two (maybe more) should make it. I like it.

the need for a big hitting OF would be less if we had invested more heavily in the 1B/DH slots. we could have then looked to gain value in the OF exclusively through defense, which is cheaper.

and praising an FO for not signing top FAs seems like a pretty low bar imo.

could add Bergen and Rowley to the list of potential home grown lefty relievers.

There is an element of truth to this- the Cubs are to Chicago as the Maple Leafs are to Toronto. However, the broadcast market for the Blue Jays is (I think) deeper than acknowledged. In Canada in the summer, there is the Canadian Football League and the Blue Jays. They have the sports market more or less to themselves. Winning helps deepen it, of course, but a significant number of fans will watch (provided there is reasonable nationwide promotion) win or lose. And because you are talking about a pool of 30-35 million, rather than a pool of maybe 10 million, the Jays have a long-term advantage over the Cubs notwithstanding differences in the persistence of enthusiasm

There is a superficial quality to the claim that because Canada has a population of 30 or 35 million the Blue Jays have a great market, but even on that level the comparison of the Blue Jays to the Cubs is, at best, a stretch. The Maple Leafs don't play in Toronto instead of Mexico City because they can't afford to move to Mexico despite the larger population. They play in Toronto because it's a better hockey market for a number of reasons. The Cubs have access through a superstation, and soon their own network, to a market of over 300 million - spending larger dollars. While Chicago itself supports two teams, the same cannot be said of Canada, Not only ddi the Montreal team fail, so did every AAA, AA and low A franchise in Canada from 1990-2010. Only a short-season team remains.

The people who get paid to a put a value on markets, like Forbes, value the Cubs' market at 85% more than the Blue Jays'. I know of no reputed evaluator that claims the Blue Jays market is more valuable than the Cubs. The Cubs brand is valued at 300% the value of the Blue Jays'. Overall Forbes rates the Cubs as the 5th most valuable franchise in baseball and Toronto the 22nd and I'm sure they know the population of Canada. If' you'd like to see a good practical comp of the two markets, head to spring training where the Cubs sell out a stadium of 15,000 and the Blue Jays' stadium of 6,000 only sells out when visiting fans of NYY, Red Sox, Phillies and Rays fill it up. Or imagine the Blue Jays levelling a 67% increase in ticket price to make up for the difference in what is charged for tickets in the two markets.

But my point wasn't to rip the Blue Jays market. Not at all. I've noted in the past the much greater enthusiasm at games this century that there was during the supposed 'heyday' of the early 90's. I've noted the enthusiasm of people on a plane who flew in from Halifax. It's great the way that the team is being followed and I would hate to see this fall back to what existed pnly a few short years ago (when Canada had the same population), when 1.5 million showed up to games and the CFL outdrew the Blue Jays on TV. My point was that because of the relatively more vulnerable market in Toronto, the organization would attempt to sustain the winning record of the last two seasons and remain competitive, as opposed to the type of rebuild the Cubs did under Theo where they finished last 5 years in a row from 2010-2014 and still brought in far more revenue than the Blue Jays over that period. My point was that this augured well for the offseason.

Travis Bergen has ten career innings over two seasons.  I like the kid, but like most of those guys you named, he's a long way away.  Borcucki was added to the 40 man due to his upside, not his readiness for the bigs. 

Guys I see as potential big league relievers next year include righties Danny Barnes and Chris Smith.  Tepera seems to be a lock already, while Schultz doesn't be able to translate his big arm into big Ks in the majors.  Wil Browning is a soft-throwing side-armer who went undrafted, but sometimes those funky guys can make it work - but he is 28 with 1 career AAA IP.

As for lefties, hitters seem to have figured Loup out, even as he has improved his control.  Mayza needs to cut down his BBs, Dermody needs to show he can get AAA hitters out, as does Girodo - both guys are very hittable. 

Right now, our bullpen depth is Osuna, Grilli, Biagini, Tepera, Barnes, Bolsinger, Loup and Leone.  That's a weak, weak pen. 

A valuation of the Blue Jays as the 22nd most valuable franchise in MLB, less than the Pirates, Twins and Reds, is a joke.  It does not reflect a serious effort to make any adjustment for the interaction between the broadcasting and sports ownership aspects of Toronto's business.  Every other rating from Forbes is credible, but I don't think that they are concerned too much about the Blue Jays' unique situation. 

I don't mind pitching prospects starting in the pen. Once they are on the 40 roster, you're using an option year anyway.
There's ways to migrate them to the rotation slowly while managing their innings and service time.

Right now, it's pretty thin at AAA.
Bolsinger is out of option and need to make the team, at least as a long man or middle reliever.
Tepera , Schultz, Barnes, Dermody, Campos, Girodo, Chris Smith and Borucki are on the 40.
I'm not sure about Casey Lawrence and Leonel Campos. I think Lawrence is a AAA starter.
I would start Biagini in AAA and see what the other guys can do in low leverage innings in April/May.

I think it's neat that a career Jays like Cecil can pocket 30M. It's a happy ending following a difficult year.
Sometimes, a change of scenery is good.

head to spring training where the Cubs sell out a stadium of 15,000 and the Blue Jays' stadium of 6,000 only sells out when visiting fans of NYY, Red Sox, Phillies and Rays fill it up.

Then go the Olympic Stadium to watch sellout crowds of over 50 000 when they play the Pirates on March 31 and April 1 next year.

My brother's girlfriend is a huge baseball fan and even though he has connection at Rogers, my brother has to buy those tickets early because they sell out fast.

Of course, there is also the Seattle game phenomenon with more Blue Jay fans than Mariner fans in attendance even though the Mariners were in the hunt.  And the Michael Saunders All-Star vote. 

Shapiro said that every team can sell their opening day tickets and their big weekend series. What's different about Toronto are the everyday sellouts against whatever teams. That's why a rebuild doesn't make sense. Just spend enough money to have at least an average player at each position and this team can compete as long as they have Donaldson.

The Jays lost 4 games in the playoffs.

Game 1: no bullpen used
Game 2: Cleveland scored all its runs in the first 3 innings, well before the pen came in
Game 3: Biagini gave up a wild pitch to move a runner to 2nd, that runner scored. 4-2 loss so that run wasn't the difference. The other 3 scored purely on the starter
Game 4: Jays win, pen didn't allow a run
Game 5: Cleveland scored all their runs by the 4th

Yup, no issues with the pen there. Cecil was used 3 times 3 1/3 IP 0 H 0 R 1 BB 4 SO.

As to the regular season where the Jays just snuck in under the wire (tied for top wild card, 3 up on other teams)... Osuna blew 6 saves (36 saves), Cecil 4 (9 holds, 0 saves), Biagini 2 (9 holds, 1 save), Chavez 2 (7 holds, 0 saves), Grilli 2 (2 saves, 21 holds), 6 others blew 1 each (Storen did it with 3 saves and 8 holds - huh, better than I expected; Benoit 6 holds; Floyd 6 holds, Loup 2 holds, Leon & Hutchison blew their only chances).

Shocked that Storen did that well with leads. Sure didn't seem that way at the time did it? Still, I'd lean towards saving money and not going nuts on relievers unless you are getting a premium one like Chapman and his price will be too high I suspect to make sense (years more than dollars per). In 2015 Osuna came out of A ball to be a closer, in 2016 rule 5 pick Biagini became a solid part of the pen, 2014 it was 21 year old Aaron Sanchez who burst onto the scene, in 2013 Steve Delabar had an all-star season after being gotten by dumping Eric Thames. So yes, this does happen every year pretty much. I'm sure I could keep going back and with a few exceptions find a guy who shouldn't have done anything being a key part of the Jays pen. That is why I say blowing $8+ mil a year for 4 years on a middle man is a bad decision and I'm glad the Jays didn't make it.

Jerjapan, I was writing about grooming lefty relievers for the future, not for next season, as you seemed to misinterpret. Yes, the team is very thin in relief for 2017 at the moment though I do expect it to be addressed.

Spring training is irrelevant when it comes to measuring a teams fandom. What matters is TV ratings, attendance, and merchandise sales. The Jays slaughter every other team, even the Yankees, in TV ratings. In attendance only the Dodgers and Cardinals beat the Jays last year, #2 in the AL was the NYY and they were around 4k a game behind the Jays.

I think Forbes and others who measure market size lowball the Jays due to the 20+ year gap since they last contended and assumed the Jays were like other markets which go up and down as the team does but not by the wide margin the Jays do. I'm betting even Rogers didn't anticipate this big a jump. I dreamed of it but knew there was a good chance the Jays would be like other mature markets without a shiny new stadium. Glad they aren't. The incentive to be a playoff team is massive for the Jays, far bigger than for pretty much any other club. The Cubs and Red Sox both will fill their stadiums even if they suck, contending is an effort to increase TV viewership and merchandise sales.

I'm going to have to check attendance for clubs last year in last place, most recent year in playoffs just to get an idea of the spread. For the Jays it is 2013 31,316 (bottomed out at 19,173 in 2010) vs 41,878 last year. Cubs is 2014 32,742 (1995 26,643 is the lowest since the early 80's) vs 39,906 in 2016. Peak alltime was 40,743 in 2008. So their peak to bottom spread is 8k-14k roughly vs the Jays 22k+. Which do you think has a bigger incentive to win?

I was impressed with Jansen's receiving ability in the AFL Championship game yesterday. The manager must have had confidence in that too as he kept him in the entire contest. I would not have expected that at the beginning of AFL season. Perhaps Ugly's higher assessment of his prospect status is the correct one.

I like Jansen plenty but he took a bit of a step back offensively this year. I think he's probably good defensively but i'm not sure he's good enough to not need to hit.

The jays lost their fanbase specifically by "just spending enough to be competitive". They did it for 20yrs and the fans stayed away in droves. Toronto fans aren't idiots.

the #22 Forbes rank came after 2015, and doesn't include this year's league leading attendance or great tv ratings....and i believe when the dollar was plummeting down under $0.70us.

""Three of the best relievers in the pen last season were a combination of a Rule 5 pick and two near 40-year old's who other teams gave up on. "

yep.

our best rp were no investment osuna biagini benoit grilli.

our costly rp were mostly liabilities - storen cecil chavez etc.

Jansen hit .282 in the AFL He probably projects as a backup C but that is not without value. What you need in that position is the ability to receive and handle pitchers. He seems to have that.

Sign another C to minor league deal as well and let them duke it out in ST. Jansen hit .282 in the AFL He probably projects as a backup C but that is not without value. What you need in that position is the ability to receive and handle pitchers. He seems to have that.

How about inviting catchers on 2016 Buffalo and New Hamsphire who are still within the organization to ST. Does that mean aged 26 Jorge Saez, aged 28 Luis Hurtado, aged 29 Chris Schaeffer or guys like that ?

I have heard that Jays are interested in Chris Gimenez, now a FA. Cleveland is trying to bring him back on minor league deal. Rather than offer a major league deal, Jays should offer him a minor deal with more money than what Cleveland is offering. He can be offered more opportunity as well, a chance to win a major league job.

I never know quite how to deal with AFL performance. It's always nice that they play well, of course. And especially encouraging for a guy like jansen who was good at the plate before this year. I'm still a big fan.

Well he is clearly better than #30 where MLB Pipeline ranks him.....I would say somewhere between 15-20.

The Australian league has begun and the soon to be released D J Davis is off to a horrid .083 start while things are looking better for Josh Almonte batting.333. It is very early but will be interesting to see if these trends continue.

The only time Term and Dollars can absolutely be controlled is via Trade. Those players can cost a lot. The cost of an Outfielder, like the Jays need, can be expensive. The cost of a Top Starter can also be expensive. Then a strange thing happens. The cost of both is always less. Then if it's felt costs are rising to uncomfortable levels, add someone else, like a LH Reliever, like a backup C.

yeah I think I have him around #15 still too. but the 2016 draftees are tricky to rank.

Not sure what the rules are about players who have been released but are still arbitration eligible.
Here's an intriguing bench possibility if Pearce is signed elsewhere - seems like a similar possibility - Trevor Plouffe
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml

Mostly 3b now, but has also played 1b, SS, 2B and LF/RF. Vs lefties he's career 809 OPS. He has 20 HR power and versatility. Might get priced out of Jays range or be sought after as part of a bad set of 3B.
If he's still available later in the offseason, and the Jays are still looking for players, he might be worth an offer.

Rather than offer a major league deal, Jays should offer him a minor deal with more money than what Cleveland is offering. He can be offered more opportunity as well, a chance to win a major league job.

Not that I am against this type of business to lure a free agent, why not let catchers progress internally ? A backup catcher usually sits on the bench anyway so one shall be developed well enough that spending time on the bench would not hurt his performance. For himself, he shall be professional enough that he needs to contribute when Gibbons put him into the game.

Back to contents, Gimenez is 33 to 34 in 2017 so a backup catching job is a realistic lure but so to other early 30s free agent catchers. Is the management of signing a few early 30s catcher to duke it out in ST realistic ? Can those catchers who lost out during ST be "traded' to other teams, suiting up in his new team ST or extended ST? That said, each MLB team has a balance of backups on the MLB and Triple-A level.

I like Jansen a lot. I think he's been pushed a bit too fast in terms of his hitting development, and that is a significant part of why his numbers haven't looked that good recently. In 2013, his 1st pro season, he was just barely 18 (April birthday), and still managed a .645 OPS in GCL. The logical progression would be a move to Bluefield the next year, which he handled very well, with an OPS of .874. At this point he had only 238 AB's in total in 2 seasons of pro ball, and I would have liked to see him get a season at Vancouver, being just barely 20 years old. He was bumped to Lansing, however, and produced only a .642 OPS in a season where he could only get 181 AB's. Despite this, he was bumped again, to Dunedin, in 2016, and again played only a partial season, with 197 AB's and OPS'd just .585. He has had only 616 AB's in 4 seasons of pro ball, yet has been moved from the GCL to A+ ball. It was good to see him hit well in the AFL. He's still just 21 years old and I think he has a reasonable chance to be a good hitter. I hope they don't move him to AA this year - he needs a chance to work some things out without being continually advanced after only a partial season in which he has not hit all that well. If he hits well in A+ for a couple of months, sure, move him to AA then. FWIW, I have him #12 on my prospect list, and that includes Pompey, whom I still regard as a prospect despite not qualifying for the official lists.

iirc if a player is still in arbitration years (lets say he has 2 years left of it) and he is released, then signed by team xyz for one year that team has him in arbitration the following season (ie: he'd be signed as a free agent for 2017 but in arbitration for 2018 then back onto the free market).

Plouffe looks very good for the Jays. Right handed hitter. Around a 100 OPS+ (99 lifetime, peak of 110 in 2014), mainly played 3B but also 55 games at SS, 36 at 1B, 26 in RF, 23 at 2B and 5 in LF lifetime (reached majors in 2010). Made $7.25 mil last year which was a bit rich for the Twins (they are cheap). Lifetime 8.1 bWAR, 0.8 last year so he was worth what he was paid. Fangraphs sees him a bit differently, 5.2 WAR lifetime, -0.4 last year after a 2.4 and 3.5 the previous 2 years. Suggesting he could be a $20 mil player if all goes well or a negative if it doesn't. Well worth risking $7-10 mil on for a 1 year deal, might be worth a 2 plus option or even 3 years if the Jays scouts are high on him.

Plouffe doesn't hit right handed pitching very well - he has a career OPS under .700 against them, so I would only be interested in him as a platoon bat vs lefties, against whom he has a career OPS of .809. As such, he would make a decent platoon partner for Smoak at 1B (if they don't acquire another 1B), but as such, he wouldn't be worth nearly as much in salary. He defense is terrible at SS or 2B, decent at 3B and very good at 1B. The outfield sample size is very small, but the results were not great. Another thing to consider is the fact that he has not hit very well away from Minnesota, with a career OPS under .700 on the road.

I looked at the BlueBird Banter site. He had some salaries listed. $20 mil each for Tulo and Martin in 2017 which is correct. He had J Donaldson at $17 mil for 2017. I thought it was much less for JD. So is that correct?

Plouffe

If he is signed, shall he be a starting corner OF and 1B ? Given that Donaldson and Tulo need rest and Travis has shown that he injured intermittently, he can be substituted into those slots, Plouffe's positive WAR means he can contribute to offense adequately while spreading more evenly a single position weakness in RF to other position. Then the roster management can be more versatile because of it. There seems to be an undercurrent of Jay's interest in batters able to play multiple position and hit well, in Pearce, Sean Rodriguez and Plouffe: do the Jays want more versatile roster management than that by signing one starting RF ?

I really hope the Jays don't sign Sean Rodriguez. I see last year as a power fluke. He can't hit otherwise. And isn't a good fielder either. I'd rather Goins and Barney

I sincerely hope that my following statement and concept is not going to be taken as rude and insulting.

Uglyone said something like:- In his opinion praising a FO for not signing top FAs seems like a pretty low bar. This is well said and clearly stated that it is his opinion.

Every off season we discuss the amount of the budget. There are a lot of differing opinions on how much it should be. That seems to be my impression.

Let us say that there are 3 groups of competitors (dogs in a pen). Group A is thrown a quantity of steak (top FAs). They will fight it out. Group B pork chops. Group C Macaroni and cheeze or hot dogs.

LAD is in Group A and TB is in group C. To me that is very clear.

IMO there are Bauxites that believe, like me that we are clearly Bs not As. So last year we are not surprised that we don't even try for D Price.

We compete for K Moreles. Big success IMO.

The Donaldson salary is correct. Second year of 2 year deal.

So $47 mil for 3 players. That is 30% of $157 mil.

Donaldson cleans up in Free agency. We probably lose him.

We should try to contend while he is here. But on what ever the budget is.

We should try to contend while he is here. But on what ever the budget is.

Shall we maximize the possible contribution of our matured farm system players ? In the context of backup catchers, shall all late 20s catchers who played for long time in Double-A and Triple-A be invited to ST ?

Cybercavalier, I don't know how to do the contending.

Teams and players over perform and under perform. KC for example fell badly from 2015. Boston was much better in 2016.

I suppose that is just baseball. I cannot figure it out.

Another example is that the Grilli 2017 contract looks great compared to Cecil's contract. By the end of 2017 we will know which player was better cost wise.

This FO will have depth IMO. That is their style. They have not traded many prospects if any. That could change.

Wow, Nate Eovaldi released by the Yankees. Not too long ago he was the ace of that staff, seemingly. Definitely would be worth a minor league deal even with him being out all of next year.

He's arbitration eligible and will become a free agent next year. I doubt he would sign a minor deal now.
Someone will offer real money next year.

He could get the Chris Carpenter treatment & sing a 2 year deal.

Eovaldi will have many teams offering a two year (or 1+1) deal where they pay him to rehab in 2017 and then have him for 2018. That would be a pretty good investment for the Jays since Estrada and Liriano will be FA's after 2017 and rotation depth with upside is never a bad thing.

He could get the Chris Carpenter treatment & sing a 2 year deal

I never knew that there was a third member of the Carpenters.  Thanks, mathesond.

I never knew that there was a third member of the Carpenters.

In his rehab year, Eovaldi could spend his plentiful downtime calling occupants of interplanetary crafts.

cannot figure it out. This FO will have depth IMO. That is their style. They have not traded many prospects if any. That could change.

My point was not to figure it out how but to maximize the chance. Just like the suggestion of signing Eovaldi as an ST NRI, throw a few catchers inside the organization as ST NRIs who are unknowns on free agents and see who stay.
Well, the difference between this FO and AA's was the later traded prospects who are projected to have some issues.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
With Brett Cecil gone, #BlueJays have interest in Jerry Blevins per source. LHP had 11.1 K/9 this year (2nd among FA lefties after Chapman).
9:36 AM - 21 Nov 2016

The 2017 Hall of Fame ballot is now out. 

My choices: Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, Walker, Edgar Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero and Jeff Kent.  My PED philosophy- no conifrmed users unless I believe that they were Hall of Famers prior to use (i.e. Bonds/Clemens).  I have no idea how well Ivan Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield would have hit absent PEDs. 

I would consider Blevins a better asset than Cecil.

Not if it took a 4-year contract to get him, of course...

I now understand your point cybercavalier. The backup catcher just needs to fill in. There will be a few that are refused arbitration. As FAs they will be scrambling for opportunities. We should be able to get a few. There may be strength in numbers.

I don't consider Blevins a better asset than Cecil, notwithstanding the lower ERA in 2016.  It's easier to pitch in the NL East than in the AL East and Cecil's long-term record is better and Cecil is younger. 

Rzepczynski is tempting - lifetime 3.77 FIP 3.80 ERA so what you see is what you get. 8.5 K/9 vs 4.0 BB/9 (5.5 last year) 0.7 HR/9. If the Jays could keep him in the strike zone then he'd be good. 30-50 IP per year since leaving Toronto, 70 games in all but one season so a pure LOOGY although his numbers vs RHP (277/377/431) vs LHP (222/291/298 lifetime). Worth 3.1 bWAR in his career (8 years) 2.9 fWAR so budget for no more than 1/2 a WAR or around $3-4 mil a year for him.

Jerry Blevins is also tempting - 3.44 ERA 3.58 FIP lifetime, 8.7 K/9 (11.1 last year), 3.2 BB/9 (both career and 2016), 0.8 HR/9. 40-60 IP per year. 4.5 bWAR 3.1 fWAR over 10 years. So similar budget. vs RH (243/332/387) vs LH (214/266/322) lifetime.

Of the two I'm leaning to Blevins first, then Rzep. Wouldn't pay $5 mil a year for either though as neither is more than a LOOGY thus of limited value.

HoF: I'd vote for Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Sosa, Walker. Obviously not much "suspected of using drugs (effectively)" penalty on my list, I just don't care about PEDs at all when looking back at relative performances. I feel the existing penalties penalize a player enough career value to hurt their case without me having to add in extra penalties on top as well. And pre-testing and penalties, it's a big yawn to me now.

Still quite a few I'd consider with more than 10 slots (Ramirez, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Kent, McGriff). I'm pretty much in the group that barely glances at relievers (Rivera is borderline to me).

What does a slow day look like? Getting excited about Jerry Blevins.

Rivera is borderline to me

Mariano?  I think that you can make a good argument that any reliever other than Mariano Rivera falls just short of the Hall of Fame, but Rivera is so much better than any of them, he ought to be in the Hall of Fame without any question.  He added more value over his career (including post-season) than probably 1/2 of the starters in the Hall of Fame.  His post-season career was fabulous- here's a way to look at it.  He threw 141 innings in the post-season with an ERA of 0.70.  His average game leverage in his career was 1.81.  What was the season leverage of his post-season innings?  3?  4? 5?  I don't know, but it would be huge.  I am pretty confident that Rivera has been the most valuable post-season player ever, and that you can add on another 1/4 to 1/3 of his regular season value (minimum) for his post-season work. 

Blevins would be a good acquisition, but Rzepczynski doesn't interest me. He gives up a lot of baserunners, and has managed to skate around that by minimizing home runs. Not sure he's going to be able to continue that tightrope walk much longer. His WHIP the last 3 years - 1.326, 1.543, 1.573. As a comparison, Drew Storen's WHIP with Toronto last year was almost identical to Rzepczynski's and we all know how that looked. Jesse Chavez' WHIP as a Blue Jay was considerably better. Pass.

Russell Martin is worth every dollar he's paid, every single dollar, and as long as he's playing he's worth it. He took a Team of average to above average Pitchers and made them very good to being great. Those that couldn't or didn't get better weren't MLB Pitchers to start with.

It was very apparent throughout the entire Season he spent a lot of time playing hurt. His days of playing 129 - 137 games a year are over, or should be over. To maintain Russell's value is to keep him healthy and happy. I don't think he should play more than four games a week, 104 games per year, ever again.

The Jays' selection of Backup Catcher could be very significant. He will catch a minimum of 58 games and should at least be very good defensively or very good offensively. In case of an injury to Russell Martin, he might have to catch 100 or more games.

I tend to give managers a lot more credit for leverage than the pitchers. The pitcher's job doesn't change much because of the leverage, and if a hypothetical reliever was as good as Rivera but used in middle relief the whole time( and if bullpens expand and take on more innings over time it might happen eventually) does that make him worse? I say no but leverage weighted WAR says yes.

I still compare Rivera to other players...would you rather have Rivera's career or McGriff's (who I see as an almost perfect borderline case)?

Some Texas Rangers minor leaguers, including Stinky's brother, are being accused of allegedly sexually hazing a teammate. MLB has to throw the book at these idiots if the allegations are true. Disturbing story to say the least!

Pretty disturbing.

Also, Rougned Odor's brother is also named Rougned Odor?

Are Joe Biagini and Mike Bolsinger the Jays' number six and number seven Starters? Or are one or more in the Bullpen? There are concern in how well Joe pitches his second and third times through the lineups. There's growing concern he's needed more in the Bullpen. Mike's pitches don't have enough separation in speed to be truly effective. That could be causing control issues as well. It's thought his Curve and the uptick that comes in Relief might make him an effective Reliever.

I still compare Rivera to other players...would you rather have Rivera's career or McGriff's (who I see as an almost perfect borderline case)?

I agree that McGriff's is a borderline case, and have him neck and neck with Kent.  Rivera is in a whole other class for me (any manager would have given Rivera the high leverage work because he was obviously far and away the best pitcher in the pen and performed well under pressure). 

Fair enough, I'm fine with a slight disagreement there. I realize my position is probably the minority one on this topic. Wait, unless my internet gets taken away for that, in which case I hurl insults in your general direction ;).

Aside from looking more guilty than anyone in history when he chose to slim down 30lbs during the offseason they started testing, was Ivan R ever actually caught doing anything?

McGwire an oversight, AWeb?

Rodriguez was named by Canseco, his teammate, and mentioned in the MItchell report although not as one of the confirmed users.

It's a tough one separating him from Piazza and Bagwell.

Mariano's a clear, 1st ballot hall of famer to me. For one, I think the HOF looks to best tell the narrative of the game through the various eras, and it's hard to tell that story without talking about elite relievers like Rivera, who's probably the best reliever there ever was.

You could make the argument that he doesn't have the same impact in terms of WAR or counting stats as a HOF starter, whether a pitcher or batter, but it doesn't really change the fact that we was one of the best ever in his role.

If he had been whatever in the postseason, I'd say he was a less clear hall of famer (but probably still). But he was even better in the postseason - pretty much dominant for his entire career. It was like the Yankees had Andrew Miller for like 16 years in a row.

I'm not sure if this has come up yet, but is anybody else worried about a drop off in Kevin Pillars defensive ability in the next 2 years? I think defensive ability peaks pretty early in ball players and he might be a roster guy I would look to move right now with Pompey/Alford in the wings.

"Also, Rougned Odor's brother is also named Rougned Odor?"

It's like the CFL used to be. Rougnedriders?

A dozen players released this week (from BA & MiLB)

RHP Richard Reina
LHP Eric Weglahn, Ty Sterner
C Derrick Chung, Josh Reavis, Manuel Herazo
1B Levi Scott
2B Juandy Mendoza, Miguel Almonte
SS Andrew Florides
OF Juan Tejada, Earl Burl III

The release of Earl Burl III is regrettable on linguistic grounds alone.

I wouldn't be voting for any of the PED cheats, as anyone knows who's read what I've written. I don't accept the theory that membership in the HOF 'vests' to a player after they've accumulated sufficient stats, so that it doesn't matter what they do - cheat, lie, throw games etc. - for the remainder of their career. So it doesn't really matter whether they passed some pre-PED statistical threshold or not. It is also one of the few disincentives to players for cheating. In a match where the manufacturers are always ahead of the testers, it is easy enough for some to cheat. It only makes it easier when a blind eye is turned to those who are known, or reasonably believed, to have cheated.

There's a huge difference between "Rough Riders" and "Roughriders"... obviously! [/sarcasm]

I'm not sure if this has come up yet, but is anybody else worried about a drop off in Kevin Pillars defensive ability in the next 2 years? I think defensive ability peaks pretty early in ball players and he might be a roster guy I would look to move right now with Pompey/Alford in the wings.

I'd definitely think about moving Pillar. He's probably not going to get any better as a hitter and he's likely at his peak defensive value right now.

Pillar's still got value to the Jays because he's cheap...I don't think he hits arbitration until 2018. But he's not someone I'd go longer than that with I don't think.

If you trust the defensive metrics, Pillar has been a 4-win and 3-win player the past 2 seasons. That is a ton of value for very little money. Encarnacion is going to parlay similar value into 20-25M per year. Because Pillar's value is all in defense, I don't think he'd fetch an equal return on the trade market.

I don't think Pillar will ever hit. Subjectively, I imagine his 2016 season is closer to his true value than his 2015. (I think that pitchers are better able to adapt to him than vice versa.) But his legs should hold up for 2 more seasons.

I'm with those who would take this year by year. Hopefully his defense (and speed) can hold up in his age 28 and age 29 seasons, two more very cheap seasons (2017:pre-arb, 2018: arb1). After that, as he hits 30, his defense in CF should start showing decline and his value with it and he may be forced into a support role, at the very same time his arb value rises.

I think that Dustin Antolin (signed by Nats) has a couple of cheap effective years in a ML BP in him - too bad the Jays couldn't keep him - might be better than the 2 guys the team claimed off waivers. I expect Antolin to pitch for the Nationals next year.

I wouldn't be voting for any of the PED cheats, as anyone knows who's read what I've written. I don't accept the theory that membership in the HOF 'vests' to a player after they've accumulated sufficient stats, so that it doesn't matter what they do - cheat, lie, throw games etc. - for the remainder of their career. So it doesn't really matter whether they passed some pre-PED statistical threshold or not. It is also one of the few disincentives to players for cheating. In a match where the manufacturers are always ahead of the testers, it is easy enough for some to cheat. It only makes it easier when a blind eye is turned to those who are known, or reasonably believed, to have cheated.

That is fair.  I take a middle position because of the extent of cheating in the game especially in the 1997-2003 period. It is likely that roughly 50% of players were cheating, and the game was doing nothing about it.  I don't want to credit players for their PED-aided performances during that period, but I am not inclined to disregard performance prior on account of cheating when such a large portion of players in the game were doing it. 

He always has pushed his fairly limited abilities; to date, the focus at the MLB level has been on defence, but I can see him refocusing and getting a little better with the bat in a way consistent with his minor league record.  It's an optimistic take, I know.

Asking readers. For batters with his attributes, how feasible are these improvements to realize if one spend plate appearances in triple-A ? In other words, how useful higher minor league levels -- double and triple A -- at pushing the limit of players abilities ?

Pillar is a player that I would trade when he gets expensive (arbitration). Right now he has more value to the Jays than he would in a trade since teams likely won't be giving up the type of value you'd expect for a 3-4 WAR player since it comes almost entirely from defense. At the moment Pillar is huge surplus value for the Jays and they want to win short-term so it makes sense to hold on to him. In a year or two if/when Alford, Pompey, or whoever can take over and Pillar starts to get expensive, then you probably look to make a move.

I wouldn't trade Pillar. For one thing, the pitchers would riot, and so would the fans. For another, the Jays don't really have anyone to replace him with.

As for his hitting: he's trying his hardest to make adjustments. In the second half of 2016, his walk rate went up and his strikeout rate went down, but at the cost of his power - he had no home runs in the second half. I don't know whether he'll ever figure it all out - I suspect that he was just not gifted with enough ability to do that - but he's going to give it his best shot.

I've been away for a bit, so here's my $.02 on other recent topics:

- The Morales signing could work out. Morales had 18 road home runs in 2016, and he will likely benefit from a move to the homer-friendly Rogers Centre. I'd rather have Edwin, but he won't sign until after the new collective bargaining agreement is in place, and he will have a lot of suitors.

- Brett Cecil seems to be either one of the very best relievers in baseball (when he has that nasty curveball working) or one of the worst (when he doesn't). Four years is a long time. He'll likely do well in St. Louis, though - it's a more forgiving ballpark and a more forgiving division.

Pillar is exactly the kind of player that would bring back far less than he's worth. He's one of a tiny handful of truly elite defensive players in the game. And given that he had hand surgery right after the season, it's reasonable to think he can get back to the 90wrc+ type guy that makes him a 5war type player with his D.

I think team defense is the most underrated part of our team - we were pretty great defensively this year, even inclueing the black holes in the corner OF. That certainly plays a big part in our surprisingly good pitching. Go with defense in the corners this year and you probably have the best defense in baseball next year.

As an aside, I'd stay away from Eaton - he's a good player on a good contract but i don't believe the 1yr RF superelite defense 6war player is what he is, and i would wager that's the price point the sox put on him.

I would trade anyone in the right offer but wouldn't be looking to move pillar. First, as others have said, defensive value doesn't bring much in trades. I think you'd be looking at a good reliever or something back for him. Second, the Jays have a pretty horrid of right now. Not exactly a lot of depth there to trade from. Doesn't make sense to pursue a trade.

I also hate the idea of trading good assets when we can just overpay a free agent instead.

Add Javier Lopez to the list of lefties looking for work. He's decided to play another season at age 39. Lopez has been an excellent LOOGY for a long time, and was important in the Giants' 3 recent World Series wins, pitching 12 1/3 innings and allowing only 5 hits, 4 walks and 1 run in those 3 post seasons, but slipped a bit last year. You have to keep him away from righties, he's a true lefty vs lefty guy.

I am not sure that a loogy is needed as much as people think... certainly not enough to grossly overpay or give up a good asset. Tepera and Barnes both have favourable splits against left handed batters. There were times last years when I wished Gibbons could better read a stat sheet.

That said, I am sure Jays will sign someone. Just think there is no need to panic.

Tepera and Barnes both have favourable splits against left handed batters.

The seeming Tepera reverse-split was much discussed this past season. His career BABIP splits of 164/256 suggest that a reckoning is in order.

Are there any similar-to-Pillar super-defensive-elite outfielders with limited bats available for LF/RF?

I guess my question is: can a LF/RF impact the game as much as a CF with really good defense? If we can find 2 more 3-4 WAR defenders for relatively cheap for LF and RF, then we could, in theory, win a lot of 1-0 or 2-1 games.. Add a good pinch-hitter for the late innings.

Also, how has Upton's defense graded out lately? I always thought of him as a better-than-average fielder, but most of my memories of 2016 are of him flubbing easy plays, and only occasionally making the hard play. Is he losing is defensive ability?

Jayson Heyward might be available cheap!

We already have LOOGYs. This year Loup faced 34 RHBs and 28 LHBs. That's not good.
Girodo faced 24 RHBs and 20 LHBs. That's the problem right there.

Have you looked at Girodo's line against lefties?

.211 .250 .263

That's not good enough?

Upton wasn't focused. Hopefully, he settles down and gets used to playing with Pillar.
The RC can be very loud and even Tulo found ways to collide with Pillar initially.

So MLBTR is reporting that owners/player's union is back at it again - talking about a "work stoppage" due to CBA negotiations. Really, guys? You're all multi-millionaires for the most part, and you can't figure it out?

One of the sticking points is that the league wants to take a tougher stand on drug testing, but the PA won't agree without some other concessions.

Also, that Jon Singleton extension (before he appeared in a single ML game) sure isn't looking so great now. Turns out not everyone is an Evan Longoria.

Then again, the 'Stros are only on the hook for $10M. That's pretty small potatoes nowadays.

Baseball had probably its highest fan interest and media acceptance in god knows how long this past October, so it only makes sense to have a lockout now. Timing is impeccable.

The only comparable in trade value for Pillar is Andrelton Simmons. In return for him Atlanta got a top 20 project who turned out a sub 4 era rookie season + another prospect. I would have to think Pillar would have at least 80% of his trade value and I think like Simmons his defensive value will drop as he ages.

With Pompey winning a gold glove in the minors and pretty generous UZR/150 in CF so far Im not sure the OF defence will fall apart if we deal a roster player like Pillar.

mlb players get absolutely screwed by the CBA.

If there is a legitimate lockout (I.e. spill over into spring training) then baseball will undo 2 decades of recovery. Even using that language is a bad idea.

Count me on board with CBCD's hall of fame philosophy. If you don't punish the steroid era then we are just inviting the next steroid era to happen. But if great players see that cheating can cost them a shot at immortality then cheating will be constrained to (at best) the periphery of the game.

I disagree. The precedent has already been set with amphetamines and other "cheating."
The game and the media already turned a blind eye. Keeping someone out of the hall doesn't do much for deterrent, Imo.

"The only comparable in trade value for Pillar is Andrelton Simmons. In return for him Atlanta got a top 20 project who turned out a sub 4 era rookie season + another prospect. I would have to think Pillar would have at least 80% of his trade value and I think like Simmons his defensive value will drop as he ages. "

SS is not the same as OF. Teams do value elite SS defense. Also, Simmons was 25 when traded. Pillar is 28. I really don't think Pillar would get you much, certainly nothing that would improve the team more than losing him would hurt.

Guys like Canseco, McGuire, Bonds, Clemens... don't need the hall. They are already immortalized in their own way.

From what I gather, the players want an end to compensation draft picks. The owners want an international draft in return but the players don't agree to that.

Probably also some rattling about the luxury tax threshold and guarantees that competitive money hands up in the players pockets.

Changes to the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program could be anything. Are tougher sanctions needed?
What are owners upset about here? Would being able to void a contract a fair consequence?

At this point  a lockout only affects the signing of free-agents. They can always continue using the current agreement, but if there is a material change in the luxury tax threshold, then the signing of top free agents (like EE)  is on hold anyway.

According to baseball insiders I follow online, this lockout stuff is just posturing and sabre rattling without anything real substantial behind it. Let's hope.

MLB revenues are higher than they've ever been, attendance league wide is great, the game is flush with cash. We're coming off a great world series that had really high national ratings. A lockout now would be about the stupidest thing anyone's ever done.

I say there's no chance of it happening. Then again I thought there was no chance Trump would get elected.

Re: Lockout. I wonder if Cecil got a signing bonus and has already received it?

Changes to the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program could be anything. Are tougher sanctions needed? What are owners upset about here? Would being able to void a contract a fair consequence?

The changes are as much demanded by the players as the owners and the MLBP'A knows that, so I don't see any holdup there. It was the players who demanded increases to the penalty provisions of the joint drug program during the life of the collective agreement, increasing first time penalties from 50-80 games, and barring players caught like Peralta and Nelson Cruz from the playoffs. The players don't want to see fringe guys trying to cheat their way aboard, or players who've been caught in a test showing up again a short time later during the season. I would not be surprised to see the first time penalty moved to one year, and I would also not be surprised if, in a number of years, penalties are changed to be the same as the Olympics - a 2 year penalty first offence and lifetime ban for a second. The PA is no longer the same type of organization on this issue that it was at the beginning of the century.

As for the major issue, at least according to Ken Rosenthal's article at foxsports, the PA is obviously posturing. According to KR, MLB has made the stunning offer of ending free agent salary drag - a goal that the PA has sought for 40 years - by abolishing the forfeited draft pick, in exchange for making international players subject to a draft like North American players. KR's article quotes a PA source as saying that they're not all that concerned about free agents, who are relatively few and who've already received a QO of $17 million, which must come as a bit of surprise to the sportswriters who've been whinging about the 'poor free agents' who've received QO's and are having their prospective contracts lessened by a forfeited draft pick - as they are about the more numerous international signees whom the players argue don't have the bargaining chips of going to College.

The PA claim on international signees is what is known as a 'straight face' argument, in that the greatest challenge is making the argument with a straight face. I hope we all live long enough to see the day that North American baseball players will forego massive salaries, either though strike or lockout, so that international free agents are not subject to the same drafting procedures as North American players, on the specious grounds that the international players either didn't apply or didn't get accepted into a college program.

To my eyes, this is all posturing around getting a deal done by December 1, which MLB obviously wants for the purposes of moving ahead with the offseason, and the PA is trying to leverage MLB"s desire for a Dec. 1 resolution for what it can. It's called collective bargaining, much of which is about posture.

Is it just me or this Rule 5 class way better than average?  I see 5 or 6 players I like to some degree. 

Tyler Heineman sounds like an older version of Reese McGuire.  I can easily imagine him backing up Russell Martin.  

Nabil Crismatt has a great name, apparently throws 91-93 with a good change and curve. Crismatt has been used in a swing man role and thrown relatively few innings per year. He was very successful at three levels last year, striking out over a batter per inning and walking hardly anyone.  He turns 22 on Christmas Day, 2016.  A year in the major league pen might not hurt his development too much. 

The rule 5 does seem decent. Some of. A 1b utility type ( bats the wrong way to help with smoak). No idea who's left that might help by the time the jays get to pick.

Is it just me or this Rule 5 class way better than average?

Tyler Heineman looks like a younger Dioner Navarro -- SHB and short. If he backs up Martin as a rule 5, then where A J Jimenez get a roster slot to experiment in Toronto ? So the expansion to 26 human is magnified in its effect: having both Heineman and Jimenez miscellaneously.

Can Triple A Buffalo draft from the same rule 5 list ? If L/R aged 27 in 2017 Jeff Mcvaney and L/R aged 27-28 in 2017 Jason Krizan are eligible, who both had a rare Double-A season where he walks more than strikes out, and hit for power, can they stay in Buffalo ? If not, pick Krizan because only he has that rare kind in lower minors. Then, an OF Pillar, Carrera, Upton, Krizan plus the RF the Jays is going to get, not to mention Ceciliani is waiting. In other words, in case the Jays rule 5 drafts an OF, the Jays may sign a free agent who plays multiple position including the RF.

Mike the grandson of Carl Yastrzemski is also on the list: interesting to see if BoSox scoop him up.

Lex, I respect your opinion but for me you just illustrated why I feel so strongly about the need to punish the steroid era. If the media had been more pro-active during the "amphetamine era" then it likely prevents the subsequent "cocaine era" and "steroid "era" from being so widespread.

Video to dream on: Anthony Alford with CF power in the AFL. 

Nice - not exactly a wall-scraper!

Jason Castro signed for 3 years/$24 million.  That's good value.  He can still hit right-handed pitching well and he's a good defender. He doesn't exactly fit the Blue Jay need, and he probably wouldn't be happy catching only 50 games a year. 

That Rule 5 list has Blue Jay Angel Perdomo as the highest rated pitcher available according to their KATOH score. I was surprised they didn't protect him, and would be quite disappointed to see him lost. Crismatt has some very impressive numbers - wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him. Looked at a few of the higher rated hitters, nothing really jumped out and grabbed me. Wren might be a useful acquisition. Perhaps Heineman or Delmonico. I see former Jay Tim Locastro on their list.

I'd like to know what was said to Bautista and Encarnacion before Free Agency. I don't care how good they make the Team, I don't want them back. The money that would get spent on them is better used on overall improvements. Younger, faster, better LHB or Switch Hitters with good Defense. This lookout nonsense could really change Frre Agency. Either panicked early signings or waiting 2, 3 or more weeks to sign.

Perdomo is the name that worried me too Dan- with a roster spot open, why not add him to the 40?  Especially with an extra spot on the bench for some teams mext year, I could see this being the year teams starting picking prospects rather than guys who could fill a bench role.  Fingers crossed.  The club obviously thinks he's too far away to be picked.

As to Mike's question, I don't really think it's a much better crop of available players, I just think we get more coverage of these minor league moves than we used to, and have better tools to predict which AAAA type guys could contribute in a specific role to a big league club.  I could see us picking a backup catcher or reliever to fill our remaining spot on the 40 man - although I'm still hoping that's Jose or EE's spot ...

But I remain interested in hearing you guys would like to pick, and why?

he does seem like the ideal fast-promo loogy type.

The thing is there are quite a few fringe guys on the 40-man who could be dropped to make room. Guys who are very replaceable if they were taken. Perdomo, on the other hand, has a very high ceiling. Have to hope they're right that he won't get taken, but if I'm managing another team that is building for the future, I'd sure give him a shot.

The official site indicates that Chris Colabello is still on the 40 man roster.  If so, I certainly would prefer if Perdomo's name was there.  And as Dan indicates, there are some fringy pitchers out there. 

It seems now likely that Perdomo will be selected. There is also a better than even chance that he will be returned
.

I predict Perdomo will be drafted - Jays fanbase will go bonkers - he will be returned at end of spring training having had the valuable big league camp experience.

Either of the recent waiver claims, Bolsinger, Burns, Cola, Jiminez, perhaps even Schultz could be dropped easily IMO - although I do have a soft spot for Chris Smith. 

It does speak to how fungible the back end of the 40 man can be.

A side to this that has not been aired yet is that putting Perdomo on the 40 man leaves him with only 3 more option years when he may well need more. There also could be makeup problems of which we are unaware. Not supporting or bashing the decision but trying to see it from all angles. Sometimes, too, we have to trust the judgement of those who have far more insight into the situation than do we.

Good point PeterG.  I had forgotten that just being on the 40 man burns options.  Perdomo is likely a ways off and option years are huge. 

The official site indicates that Chris Colabello is still on the 40 man roster.

Any guesses on whether the organization is going to give him a shot to be Smoak's platoon-mate at first base (assuming a better first baseman isn't acquired)?

Every team has pressure on their 40 man roster, especially now that a lot of free agents are unsigned. Many teams will have to designate players to make room on their rosters later and those players will have to go through waivers.

The 40 roster is not increasing to 41.

Perdomo has a nice fastball, but both his secondary pitches are work in progress.
He would likely be returned.

Scottt, the 40 man roster currently has 39 players on it. 

Jays are likely keeping an open roster spot to make a Rule 5 pick of their own.

I wasn't suggesting that the Toronto's roster was full. Just that the extra man on the 25 roster doesn't eliminate the need for team find room for all their AA/AAA prospects along with their depth players on the 40 roster. Lots of team will have trouble keeping everyone which is why the rule V draft exist.

Perdomo might get claimed because he's the kind of guy who might be able to stick in the majors with a very limited role but I won't lose any sleep over losing him. There are tons of guys like this in the minors. Baseball America lists 12 cream of the crop guys in the draft and Perdomo isn't even in it (and you're talking about maximum one or two players who will be valuable). People fret way too much over losing mediocre prospects.

I agree with Glevin. The fact is Perdromo, even if he gets claimed, is only to get his first cup of MLB coffee in future. Training and projection can only predict those much: only performing in real time can Pedromo be assessed. Given the above, his likeliness is sticking around during his first coffee time is slim because 1) his mediocrity status in general does not project non limited role, as Glevin suggested. 2) Given that limited role, his role is replacable. 3) he would not be put into that status if his role in minors and projected one in the majors are not limited. 4)

Given 2) and 3), his frist MLB tenure shall be short. What [fans] in people shall fret with attention is if the FO pays attention to him in the long run. For example, after his first MLB tenure in 2017, would the Jays management still scoop him up with a minor league playing time in Triple-A in 2018 ST and onwards ?

It would suck to lose an asset for nothing (assuming Perdomo is drafted and sticks with that club), but it doesn't make sense to add him to the 40-man yet for reasons already mentioned here, and he still has so much stuff to work on (control, secondary stuff, etc) that it's hard to see him sticking on a team all season unless that team is ready to lose and don't care about his performance. If the latter happens, then there's not much you can do. It would be a risk either way.