My $0.02:

- too high: Greene, Harris
- too low: Tellez, Maese

Kevin Ahrens
David Cooper
Chad Jenkins
Deck McGuire
Tyler Beede
DJ Davis
Phil Bickford
Jeff Hoffman
Jon Harris
TJ Zeuch

Yikes. We don't yet know what the last two or three guys will end up being (of course Hoffman is no longer with the Jays) but that's a pretty bleak list. How do you draft guys like Deck McGuire and David Cooper and Chad Jenkins with your first pick?

I think we have 6 guys to be legit excited about right now (in no order): Tellez, Guerrero, Alford, Urena, SRF, Maese.

After that we have a group of 10 or so guys that imo are interesting with good upside but not yet enough to get excited about (again in no order): Zeuch, Greene, Rios, Perdomo, Harris, Bichette, Ramirez, McGuire, Pentecost and maybe a couple of others.

I would add Woodman and Palacios to that second list.

Jenkins and Cooper were JPR picks no? His draft record was pretty darn bleak. AA and his team were much better, unless you have a problem with them not signing all their top picks. I don't - those comp picks have worked out well and a willingness to walk away from a prospect provides some leverage in negotiating overall.

And it's not like Beede or Bickford are bums - Beede is the Giants number two prospect per MLB and Bickford already made it to the Bigs with the Rockies. I like Harris and Zeuch too although they are more higher floor lower ceiling types.

AA and his guys have to wear McGuire and Davis though.

That first pick list is pretty bleak, but I'm taking a look at the drafts overall. Just starting so don't expect much today.
That 2007 draft
Jays picks
#16 Ahrens (from Rangers. Not sure who the FA was)
#21 JP Arencibia 2.7 rWAR
Players taken after Ahrens with 5+ rWAR -#28 Revere 6.1 rWAR #27 Porcello 16.8 rWAR. After those 2, nobody else picked in the first round had as many as Arencibia.
Number of teams with 0 or worse rWAR from top pick: 10
Number of picks with a higher total rWAR than Arencibia picked ahead of him - 7 (9 total 1st round).
Top picks: J Heyward #14 32.7 rWAR, D Price #1 31.9 rWAR, Bumgardner #10 29.1 rWAR, Porcello, Wieters #5 16.3 rWAR, Moustakas #2 9.6 rWAR. Revere, J Parker #9 6.1 rWAR

I'd say that's not a disaster, and just listing the top picks is probably going to be misleading. Jays got the 9th most valuable player in the 1/1s round, picking 16th.

Supplemental picks were the old FA compensation - between first and second round
supplemental picks by the Jays (Cecil -#38 6.8 rWAR #45 Justin Jackson #56 Trystan Magnusun -0.2rWAR
best supplemental picks: Donaldson #48 32.5rWAR T Frazier #34 18.6 rWAR - nobody else over 10. Cecil was 4th in value behind also T Hunter #54 7.3 rWAR

Missed this tidbit. 64 matching player(s). 42 played in the majors (65%). Total of 228.7 WAR, or 5.4 per major leaguer.

Except only 12 players hit that 5+ level and 1 was a Jay

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2007&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&

A reminder that the draft is often a crap shoot.

A quick look back at a few first rounds...
2010: 29 of 50 made it so far, averaging just 4.6 WAR per guy who made it. Easily the best so far is Chris Sale (31 WAR picked #13). Jays in their infinite wisdom picked Deck McGuire with #11. Sigh. Best Jays pick was Kris Bryant who didn't sign (13.6 WAR) but will soon be dwarfed by Noah Syndergaard and with luck Aaron Sanchez will also do better than that. Sam Dyson and Dalton Pompey were also in that draft.

2000: 17 first rounders didn't reach the majors, of the 23 who did an average of 7.6 bWAR per player. Chase Utley the best, picked #15. Jays picked #18 and got Miguel Negron while pick #29 was Adam Wainwright. No one in the 2nd round got 10 WAR lifetime yet. The 3rd got Grady Sizemore (27), Chris Young (18). The Jays best in the 2000 draft was Dustin McGowan with 2.0 WAR (ugh)

1990: 30 of 40 made it, averaging 11 WAR per guy who made it. #1 Chipper Jones, #20 Mike Mussina both cracked 80 WAR. Jays best was Steve Karsay with 11.2 WAR for other teams (was traded for Rickey Henderson in 1993).

1980: 19 of 26 made it, averaging just 5.5 WAR per player. Best was #1 Darryl Strawberry with 42 WAR followed by Kelly Gruber. The Jays, despite having the #2 overall pick, didn't have anyone reach the majors.

1970: 12 of 24 made it, led by #4 pick Darrell Porter (40.7 WAR). Only Dan Ford also cracked 10 WAR of the first round picks. The 3rd round was the most impressive with Rick Reuschel (70 WAR) and Fred Lynn (picked by Yankees, did not sign, would get 50 WAR mostly for the Red Sox).

2008 isn't as good, Jays only had Cooper in the 1st/ 1s round
#17 Cooper 0.1 rWAR
Number of teams with less rWAR from top pick: 11
Players who have also played with the Jays: #16 Lawrie 15.2 rWAR, #13 Wallace -0.6, #11 Smoak 1.5
Players in 1st round with 5+ rWAR 7
Players in 1s round with 5+ rWAR 4
Players with 10+ rWAR: #3 hosmer 10.1, #5 Posey 33.5, #39 L Lynn (1S) 11.2, #46 L Forsythe (1s) 10.7
46 matching player(s). 37 played in the majors (80%). Total of 160.6 WAR, or 4.3 per major leaguer.

The Ahrens pick was compensation for Free Agent Frank Catalanotto.

The Ahrens pick was compensation for Free Agent Frank Catalanotto.

I found out where to find that info at the bottom of the page after posting that. Thanks. Repeating for people who check the links and want to know where to look.

2009
Jays picks
#20 Jenkins 1.4
#37 (1s) Paxton - did not sign 4.2
players with lower total than Jenkins 31 (of 49). He was the 18th most valuable pick, drafted 20th. Not a disaster.

5+rWAR : 9
10+ rWAR: #25 Trout 48.5, #1 Strasburg 18.2, #8 M Leake 13.1, #17 Pollock 15.3, 

Angels easily had the best draft with #25 Trout 48.5, #24 Grichuck 6.0, #42 G Richards 6.0, #40 Skaggs 0.2, #48 kehrer n/a.

2010
Jays picks: #11 McGuire n/a, #34 Sanchez 7.8 #38 Syndergaard 8.5
Players 5+ rWAR 9 (2 are 1S - Sanchez, Syndergaard)
Players 10+ rWAR 5 (0 are 1s) #13 Sale 31.1, #3 Machado 24.4, #1 harper 21.5, #23 yelich 13.8, #7 harvey 11.1
Players better than Sanchez or Syndergaard unavailable at time of drafting McGuire: 3
#12 Grandal 8.7 is the other with Sale and Yelich.
Players with 0 or less rWAR 34/50
50 matching player(s). 29 played in the majors (58%). Total of 133.2 WAR, or 4.6 per major leaguer.
Jays get the #7 and #8 (traded) most valuable players drafting 11th. Not a disaster.

I think after 4 drafts the question is how many teams had a stretch like this? That's something that I won't be able to answer until I'm done. But I think in the context of the first round of each draft, the Jays have done OK, and maybe the top pick isn't so much the problem as the rest of the draft.

From looking at the list, I think Reid-Foley is definitely too high. I'm not really sold on him. I think Bichette may be a touch to low to be honest with you.

As to first round picks don't forget the nightmare that was the Gillick years.
From 1979 to 1989 despite having a top 5 pick 4 times (only 1 of them made the majors and he pitched in only 10 games) not one had 10 rWAR and only 2 had 1+ rWAR (Ed Sprague & John Cerutti). Ugh. 1990-2000 saw a much better result in round 1 with 20+ rWAR from Shawn Green (over 30), Shannon Stewart, Chris Carpenter (30+), Roy Halladay (60+), Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and 10+ rWAR from Steve Karsay and 5+ from Felipe Lopez, Billy Koch. So after a historically horrid stretch they had a historically great one. Go figure the terrible stretch led to 2 WS wins and the horrid stretch led to the worst slump for non-playoff appearances. Note: 1978 had Lloyd Moseby, the only really good player drafted in the first round in Gillicks era. Stieb was a 5th round pick.

Now 2000 to 2010?
Big successes (20+ rWAR): Aaron Hill
Medium (10+) nada
doing OK (5+): Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Noah Syndergaard (could be a big one), Aaron Sanchez (also potentially big), near misses are Travis Snider 4.6 andh unsigned James Paxton at 4.2

2010 to now: Marcus Stroman 4.8 and cups of coffee for Joseph Musgrove and Jeff Hoffman. Much too soon to know much about this decade.

The JPR years were lean indeed for the draft, AA's years judgement will be a few more years before being finalized but there should be 2 stars on the list at least.

SRF's numbers looks promising. Conner Greene's 48 K / 33 BB still shows a need for improvement.

I saw that Cleveland has been promoting guys to the majors at a young age, but I haven't looked at their minor progression. The Jays could easily bring a young guy in the pen, as the rotation is full anyway, but they need a couple of guys to hit 3rd and 4th, so I'm not really expecting to see any top guys in Toronto next year.

Looking at the passed drafts doesn't give any info on international players--which might become part of the draft with the new CBA.

Also, I can't really compare GMs because of the new draft format. Too many players were just asking for big contracts before. My takeaway is that those safe pitching picks have not worked out. The toolsy type position players picks have not really worked out either, but at least those were known high risk choices.

97 I think was the last big draft year and Rios the best #1 other than Vernon Wells.
The Jays have been a pretty bad drafting team, really. I don't know that they hit on enough guys lower in the draft. Hudson was one of the better ones.
Gillick owned the rule 5 draft, and there were some good trades for the 80s teams.

I suspect 2010 will turn into one of the best, if not the best ever with Sanchez, Syndergaard, Kris Bryant (drafted, not signed), Sam Dyson, Dalton Pompey, Justin Nicolino, Asher Wojciechowski, Sean Nolin, and Danny Barnes have all reached and had some success. Chad Green was another drafted, not signed who reached (with the Yankees). And that was after wasting the top pick they had (11th overall) on Deck McGuire. I recall Griffin Murphy, Kellen Sweeney, Marcus Knecht, and Dickie Joe Thon all being hot prospects at one time or another too.

It'll be hard for that to pass some 'wow' years though

1997: Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells, Michael Young all had 20+ WAR - the rest drafted that year combined for under 15.

1995: Roy Halladay alone made this a great draft, not often you get a HOFer. Ted Lilly was drafted, not signed as well.

1989: John Olerud, Jeff Kent - two near HOF'ers (Kent might still get in), plus Jeffrey Hammonds (not signed)

1988: Woody Williams (cracked 30 WAR), Scott Erickson (25 WAR, not signed), David Weathers (over 10), and Ed Sprague (key piece of 1993's WS team, with a key HR in 1992's LCS)

1982: another contender with Jimmy Key, David Wells (both 49+ WAR) plus Mike Henneman(not signed) above 10 WAR plus 1992 WS MVP Pat Borders

1978: Dave Stieb a near HOFer, and Lloyd Moseby. Just 2 others reached for a total of 11 games but those 2 alone made it a great one.

For worst it is easily 1980: no one made it despite having the #2 overall pick. 1979 just 4.5 WAR total. Other years sub 10 WAR - 1983, 1984, 1985 (if you don't count unsigned Jim Abbott), 2000 2.2 WAR (Dustin McGowan & Vinnie Chulk plus 3 guys who were negative), 2001 7.2 (Gabe Gross the best), 2002 0.9 (Dave Bush the only reason it wasn't negative), 2005 9.2 (Romero), 2006 2.1 (Travis Snider saves it), 2007 9.8 (Brett Cecil best of a bad lot), 2008 -2.2 (Tyler Pastornicky drags it down with his -1.9).

Note: 2009 is nearly at 30 WAR so 2001-2008 have no excuses for being so insanely bad. 2011 is also over 10 already. No one from 2015/2016 has reached yet and 2014 only has seen Hoffman (unsigned) reach although we all hope Sean Reid-Foley or Max Pentecost can change that in the not too distant future.

As someone who has seen both pitch live, I find it incomprehensible that you would rank Harris and Maese near each other, for any reason other than based on draft history. The rankings cannot be based upon current status. I understand that Harris' first round status carries forward but he is similar to Deck McGiuire, his only current relevance is based upon draft status not performance. Harris is old, relative to league, and has zero plus pitches (and frankly, limited average pitches). Massey is very young for league and has a true plus pitch (his FB). I said this earlier this year, but ignore all prospect rankings that do not tell you exactly how much firsthand viewing is involved. You cAn explain these rankings if you simply go on draft rankings and raw stats (and ignore age). There is no scout anywhere, after seeing them live, that would think Harris and Maese are roughly equivalent prospects- today. Maybe Harris is injured and regains some stuff. Possible,but not current status.

Harris is expected to rise up quickly and will drop in the rankings if he does not or if he does poorly at higher levels.
Should be out of the top 10 next year, unless they trade away a lot of prospects.

Baseball America always favours high draft picks. That is why DJ Davis was always in the top 10 until this year despite poor performances.

Nigel, Harris apparently made some changes between 2015 and 2016.   That said, I like Maese better than Harris too.  He just turned 21 a couple of days ago and has held his own in A ball for half a season, with a good fastball.  It wouldn't surprise me though if both end up in the bullpen. 

I like Reese McGuire quite a bit more than many of the names on the list.  I know that he hasn't hit yet, but at age 21 in double A with advanced defensive skills behind the plate, he's a good prospect.  And Tellez, of course, is a long-time favourite of mine and nothing has changed as he has moved up the ladder. 

Nigel - what makes it more bizarre is that even with zero firsthand scouting, it should be obvious that maese is considerably better - both by virtue of his much more impressive numbers and by second hand scouting reports of their pitch arsenals.

Something else I just noticed about this top 10 - somehow, after a huge year offensively that also answered some questions defensively, Urena actually dropped one spot from the previous year's ranking. That's probably a good sign for the system overall.

I've seen stuff lately about Tellez having a slow bat and that it won't hold up add he faced tougher competition.
I don't know about that. I do know that he just had a monster season in a really tough place to hit, and has kept improving. He hasn't ever really struggled and adjusted. That would be a good sign that he can at least be an average player for his position if it happens in AAA. The good thing is Smoak has set the bar so low... that it will be difficult to not be better offensively.
Anyone with the database access/chops want to look at performance in AA with 150+ wrc?

Taking a quick peek last 10 years.
Only Lind and D'Arnaud have had 150 wrc+ in close to a full season(400 PA), and roughly the same age.they were both 22.
But that's just Harrisburg.

Baseball America's John Manual writes quite positively today about the Toronto drafts of 2010 and 2011 and how they resulted from the scouting staff expansion that AA led in the post JPR years.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/blue-jays-hit-home-runs-2010-11-drafts/#GXxzhUi90kKd4pSZ.97

Gillick did very well in the rule 5 draft. As mentioned.

I believe the rules have changed about eligibility. I am not sure but I think a team now has 1 more year of ownership before requiring to protect a player.

When Lind had his great season in New Hampshire in 2006, he turned 23 in July.  Tellez turned 21 in March.  The difference of 1 year and 8 months is huge.

This scout says that Tellez' swing "has some length", but that he has above-average bat speed.

In BA's Jays top ten report yesterday they wrote this regarding Tellez:

"he has enough bat speed to catch up to good fastballs"

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#8C5BJpPk8dtfPhLT.99

I'm with Mike - the skepticism on rowdy is borderline silly at this point, and i'm guessing that once again we will see that scouting the stat line beats listenting to interwebs prospectors.

Lexomatic - not sure what you're exactly looking for with the 150wrc+ search but his performance has been good enough for stats-only KATOH to rank him as a borderline top 50 prospect even factoring in negligble defensive value as a 1B.

"When Lind had his great season in New Hampshire in 2006, he turned 23 in July. Tellez turned 21 in March. The difference of 1 year and 8 months is huge."

Also huge is the difference in underlying numbers:

Lind: 6.6bb%, 23.0k%, .363babip, .233iso
Tellez: 12.3bb%, 17.9k%, .324babip, .233iso

Lind's walk rate we well below average, Rowdy's well above.

Lind's K rate wasn't awful for his power but wasn't great - Randy's K rate for that same power is very good.

And Lind needed a much higher babip to post the same overall offense (though admittedly this may have indicated a better pure hit tool).

So even if they were the same age, imo Rowdy's line would be much more impressive. Factor in the near 2yr age gap and iml it's not even really close.

His milb lines over the years have been more similar to Snider's (who was a legit elite prospect), but without his biggest negative - all the strikeouts.

I checked. No 21 yr old in the eastern league has had a wrc+ of 150 since 2006. I was hoping there might be an indicator of success, but hardly any players even 22 or 23 have matched tellez last season. I'm guessing they get promoted before a fool season, though. Kinda more excited now, really.

a fool season

A timely typo. 

I hope the Jays claim John Lamb even if he's on the DL for most of next year - likely gets claimed before he reaches the Jays.

once again we will see that scouting the stat line beats listenting to inter webs prospectors

Scouting the stat line often proves fruitful - Devon Travis is a good example - but it can also cause you to miss out on some good players. For example, it wasn't that long ago that some viewed Aaron Sanchez as merely a "tools" prospect who was unlikely to pan out. The stat line can enlighten, but it can also lead to bias.

It matters less where Tellez ranks compared to other Jays minor leaguers than it does how he ranks when compared to prospects at his level. Tellez did not make the the BA end of season list of Top 20 Eastern League prospects. Given that this is one of three AA leagues, that seemingly puts him well down the AA list. BA was asked about this in the chat. The discussion is below.

Clint (BC, Canada): Tell me Rowdy Tellez was close at least?

Josh Norris: He was close, but was removed at the end. Some evaluators noted he doesn’t have the bat speed to portend the big power necessary to profile as a major league first baseman. Almost all of his power, too, is to the pull-side. He’s not a particularly deft defender, and was aided by New Hampshire’s short porch in right field.

Given that the talent is largely in the low minors, I'll be more interested to see next years' list, though I will look to see Jim Callis' comments at MLB Pipeline when he updates his rankings. I think by next year Harris, Greene, Alford and perhaps Tellez may have considerably different rankings.

And is 'Admin' Gerry?

"John Manuel: I think the system’s top half is quite robust, and it’s a top 10 farm system for me"

so much for that gutted farm.

BaseballAmerica had the Jays minor league system ranked 24th prior to the start of the 2016 season. Since then there's been a full minor league season, an entire draft, and a trade that netted two prospects in AA (Ramirez/McGuire). It was always going to get better organically, as long as 1) the organization did not trade more prospects, and 2) at least some high upside prospects in the lower minors improved their stock (Guerrero, Urena, SRF, etc). The system moving up the rankings is not a surprise, although whether it's top 10 or not right now is debatable. I'm more of a John Sickels guy when it comes to prospects, so I want to see what he says about the system.

As mentioned, how the system looks at this time next year will be more interesting than how it looks now as the existing players start moving towards the upper minors and the org has another draft under their belt with a new scouting director (plus potentially two additional picks from Bautista and Encarnacion if both leave).

Definitely heading in the right direction though. If the org can keep the system in perpetual good shape while simultaneously keeping the big league team in contention, then mission accomplished.

Harold Ramirez was the fifth best prospect in the Pirates system at the end of last year according to John Sickels.  He had performed well at age 20 in the Florida State League.  He basically did the same thing at age 21 in the Eastern League (albeit with a little less power).  If he isn't a top 10 prospect in your system, it's a pretty good system. 

Ramirez is a short, stout pure hitter with good speed.  If he were left-handed, you'd say "batting champ in the making".  Each year, he takes a step up the system and hits .300 in poor hitting contexts at a young age.  I can easily see him as a valuable corner outfielder in a year or two, with a broad base of skills. 

Sorry, SK, but only 2 of the top 10 names (and none of the top 6) are new guys - and Manuel is praising the top 10 especially.

UO, do we really need to rehash this one?

Can we agree that native talent and development assistance both play a role in outcomes for prospects?  So, if Richard Urena is a better prospect at the end of 2016 than he was at the end of 2015 (and he most definitely is), we can fairly credit both the GM who acquired him and the GM who was in charge during the time of his development.  Trying to ascertain how much credit (or blame) to attach to the acquirer and how much to the developer is frankly a bit tiresome. 

It's pretty clear that the farm system was depleted by some of Anthopoulos' moves in 2015, and also clear that there was significant talent left that responded well to good development practices. 

Yeah I think it needs to be rehashed. Some people were pretty dang vicious in attacking anyone who dared argue that AA didn't sell the farm.

It's a pretty important thing to properly value prospects and the relative impact of prospect for player trades, imo.

IMO the rehash cannot be avoided. It took a long time to get over Tulo/Romero.

It will also take a long time to get over Thor. If he plays well and for a long time.

Perhaps a separate thread(s) could be created for all the topics that need to be rehashed, so that anyone who is not interested in following along can avoid it.

So when BA ranked the Jays system 24th last season, they were wrong (you mocked "bottom 10 system" throughout the year), but when a writer for the same publication rates them top 10 a year later, it's legit. Good to know. It's almost as if a full season of internal development, a whole new draft, mid-season trades, etc, can change the outlook of a system. Amazing. Just a bit of a spoiler, if the Jays don't trade any top prospects by this time next year, and/or possibly add more prospects within that time, then the farm system ranking will probably improve again. Keeping prospects rather than trading them helps the ranking of a farm system. Strange concept, I know.

Regardless, I'm not bored enough to start this "Shapiro/AA/David Price/too old/trade prospects" crap again. I'll do the community a favor and not take the bait. Feeding the troll only makes it stronger.

"Ramirez is a short, stout pure hitter with good speed. If he were left-handed, you'd say "batting champ in the making". Each year, he takes a step up the system and hits .300 in poor hitting contexts at a young age. I can easily see him as a valuable corner outfielder in a year or two, with a broad base of skills."


Manuel made a Jose Tabata comp for Ramirez, and that's actually the first name that popped into my head when I saw his numbers a few months ago. I think offensively his hit tool might be good enough to get him by, but barring some power development, he'll need to make up some ground with his base running and defense to be a competent MLB player. Tabata was actually a top prospect that had a bit of MLB success before fizzling out. We will see with Ramirez. Either way he's good depth to have in the system, and some development in his game could improve his stock.

most all the rankings last year took pains to point out that the jays system was grouped closer with the middle tier systems than the bottom tier ones, and mostly due to the majority of the talent being at lower levels, making a quick rise this year unsurprising, especially with AA's track record with low minors prospect "surprises".

If one year of "development" can turn a bottom system into a top system, then what's the big deal about selling the farm?

Amen to that Mathesond. A thread where dead horses go for their sins.

I have always wanted a filter button for the comments, but I really can't complain too much. This site provides me with free entertainment, and for all it's faults, the comment section here is considerably better than the comment section on newspaper sites and youtube. (And that's a credit to the site administration and members themselves).

Lugnut Fan, Why are you not sold on JRF? Not trying to be snarky here; maybe you've seen him live. Statistically, he was stellar in 2016: 115IP 130SO 38BB 4HR.

If you were to try and improve the major league club, SRF, would likely be one of the main trade bait candidates as he still has value. I'm not saying you _should_ trade him, but that's who trade partners would ask for.

Trade Connor Greene and an OF prospect (Pompey) for Ryan Braun- He replaces Joey Bats in RF with a 4/76 with a 15 MM option year ($ 4 MM buyout.)

The last 2 years Braun has been a 3.8 War and 4.4 War and turns 33 years old.

Than the Jays offer EE or Joey Bats a 3/60 MM deal to play 1st base should neither take the deal than you have 2 supplementary 1st round picks in 2017.

Offer Justin Maese or Jon Harris + Goins +2 lower grade prospects for Will Myers.

By doing this you achieve 2 starters filling holes in your lineup for 24 MM per annum.

Giving up some of the farm, to have Starters producing 3 and 4 War per annum, is more than reasonable.

The goal is to keep MLB player to have people pay to be fans

I'm not sure I want Braun - from the character issues (I don't care so much about the PEDs, or even questioning chain of custody which is completely legit, but just that lots of people care about that, and it could be a distraction for 4 years. I also am questioning his value over that period. That said, I think MIL gets more than Greene and Pompey, and I wouldn't make that trade anyway.
I'd easily offer EE 3/60 but he'll get more, and there's no way I'd offer Bautista anything more than a QO.
I again woulnd't make the trade for Myers (though there is some flexibility in where he plays so he wouldn't block Tellez), I just don't think that's a match. Goins has minimal value.
I wouldn't be surprised by any trades, I just don't think it will be these ones.

(you mocked "bottom 10 system" throughout the year).

That might have been me SK, although no way is the word 'mocked' correct - I just didn't agree that calling it a bottom ten system - and therefore lumping it with the likes of Baltimore and Anaheim - undersold the state of the system, and i think it's fair to point out that those heaping on the devastated system were perhaps overstating things. 

Also, people round here have a weird concept of trolling.  I've seen several brutal comments go undiscussed, but when an unpopular point is raised, it's trolling?   

And I really think if we are going to call people out for beating a dead horse, that should apply to both sides of the debate.  plenty of ink was spilled by myself and a bunch of others - although I'm plenty happy to save further comments till the box does their annual ranking! 

Not really relevant to this thread, but worth sharing anyway...

Kevin Pillar earns 2016 Fielding Bible award as best defensive CF in both leagues.
http://www.fieldingbible.com

I wouldn't pay to watch Braun. Even Cespedes, a guy who chain smokes between innings, doesn't attract me.

Speaking of toolsy prospects on the rise, Alford is #1 on BA's AFL Hot Sheet for Oct. 28:

1. Anthony Alford, of, Blue Jays

Team: Mesa
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .500/.538/1.000 (6-for-12), 4 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: One of the most tooled-up players in the AFL, Alford has shaken off the rust accumulated during a season marred by injuries. He broke out in 2015 and rocketed to No. 25 on the Top 100 Prospects before the season. He wrenched his knee early and was concussed at midseason, which limited him to just 91 games at high Class A Dunedin. Alford has popped a pair of home runs so far in the AFL and is sporting a .974 OPS at the season’s halfway mark. (JN)

Please but you will vote for Hilary Clinton who is a crook or Donald Trump who is a misogynist.

Braun, took PED, Cabrera took PED, and in the last two years after paying his punishment for time served, he is still 3.8 to 4.4 WAR less than before , but still better than EE and Joey Bats.

I rather have him than Trumbo.... or would you rather have Chris Davis on a 7/162 MM contract.

Interested in knowing who you would like to replace JB and EE.

Congrats to Pillar on the Fielding bible award!  less good is the news he just had thumb surgery, but hopefully he's fine by spring training. 

Man, Cleveland keeps surprising me.  When guys like Jeff Tomlin and Coco Crisp are coming up big for you, it kind of feels like destiny ...

I don't want a team with that mascot winning the World Series, so I hope the Cubs can pull it out.  Tonight is huge! 

I've never payed to watch politicians. I'm certainly not traveling and paying to go watch a cheater.
I mean, I could to heckle him and call him names the whole game, but my wife would understandably get upset with me.
So, not an option.

That kid Schwarber  looks interesting. I wonder if the knee injury will force him to DH which isn't great when you play in the NL.

With guys who used PED's I say, they got the penalty that is set for it and they know their HOF chances (if they had any) are kaput and winning any voted on awards from now on will be extremely hard. In the end I want the Jays to win and guys who used PED's I can live with. After all, I was still able to cheer on the Jays with Rickey Henderson on the team back in 1993 (no PED issues that I've ever heard of, but back then he was viewed as a class A self-obsessed jerk - love that he kept playing until he had trouble getting work in indy leagues, changed my viewpoint on him as he showed he just loved to play with that).

"....you will vote for Hilary Clinton who is a crook..."

The FBI investigated her for years and concluded that she did NOT break the law.  Calling her a "crook" is just mindlessly adopting the rhetoric of a Trump rally.

Now, back to baseball.

CF, as I said Trump is a narcissist and Hilary is a Crook, don't be delusional, she is the Democrats version of Watergate.

Living in the USA, and not smoking Trump's B.S. , this is the most disastifying time to choose for President. Than there is the stoner Gary Johnston who is still studying a map " What's Allepo"

My belief that the jays can offer a Catcher prospect, and an outfield prospect for a Ryan Braun. In turn the Jays ultimately receive Ryan Braun + a supplementary 1st for two or three prospects.

The outfield would be settled for the next four years, with Pompey, Pillar, Braun and Upton.

BA also shows a list of prospect from independent baseball leagues.
The Marlins signed the top 2016 INDY prospect OF aged 22 Dalton Wheat
The Brewers signed fourth INDY prospect RHP aged 29 Chad Nading

Former Jays Art Charles is the second INDY prospect but he is BA Indy PoY. Shall the Jays sign him to play in Buffalo 2017 while the 1B situation around EE settles ?

It's better to keep Ryan Braun out of this country and Benjamin Gazi out of Baseball talks.

We'd be talking PEDs every single day.  Besides he's exactly the type of guy likely to get caught again.

I see Braun as a likely low cost guy to get (reasonable contract, team that likely wants him gone). He has warts (PED) but honestly, to get anyone here you have to accept some degree of warts be it attitude, underperforming, big contract, PED history, whatever. I see past PED use as the least likely to blow up - worst case he gets caught again and the Jays are off the hook for his contract for a year+ and need to get another player in. Factor that in when trying to do the deal (ie: offer very little) and move forward. If Milwaukee wants real prospects tell them to stop taking whatever drugs they are on.

Not sure who the Jays will get, Braun & Votto are just the most obvious guys (both on teams that are always cutting payroll and both still productive). Looking around at teams that were sub 500 and at least 10+ out of their division lead (IE: in rebuild mode if they are smart) for OF or 1B/DH who had a 120+ OPS+ or could with luck and big contracts....

Tampa: nada

Minnesota: nada

ChiSox...
Jose Abreu - $11+ mil each of the next 4 years, after a 'wow' first year has slowed down a lot, 173-135-126 OPS+ with WAR going from 5.5 to 3.8 to 2.8 so he'd be a 'gulp' guy to trade for and a 'yikes' to trade away. High risk for both teams, but especially for the White Sox as he could easily be back to super-star level. Don't really think he is available but who knows? He could be an attitude guy.

Angels...
Albert Pujols - No, just no unless LA wants to eat over $100 million of whats left on that insane deal and maybe not even then. OPS+ of 126-118-114 the last 3 years, sad collapse for a guy who once was the most consistent amazing hitter around.

Oakland...
Khris Davis - just starting arbitration this year so I doubt available especially after the Jays took the A's to school on the Donaldson trade. 121 OPS+ lifetime but just 2.8 WAR last year which is as good as it gets for him. Probably ideal for the Rogers Centre with his power and profile (low BB high SO). Unless the A's are being super-cheap and will give him up for little I don't see it.

Atlanta...
Freddie Freeman - if they have gone insane ($21-22 mil a year for 5 years is just 27 in 2017) had a 157 OPS+ last year. Cost in prospects would be sky high.

Matt Kemp - making $21 a year for 3 more years, $6 mil a year paid by past teams instead of Atlanta, 124 OPS+ lifetime, just 109-112 the past 2 years. Last 4 years combined = 2.0 WAR due to terrible defense so he'd be a DH. If the Jays think they could up his offense more then he'd be worth a shot.

Philly...
Pretty much done with all their old expensive toys, only kids now and in rebuild mode so nada.

Miami...
Nothing high priced and good on offense.

Cincinnati...
Votto - covered 17 ways from Sunday here already. Lots of contract, lots of offense. Of course, take him away and every game will look like a Cleveland game if the Reds are lucky, otherwise they'd lose.

Milwaukee....
Braun - again, covered well

Chris Carter - in arbitration years, 112 OPS+ lifetime plays 1B/LF/DH, tons of power, tons of K's, bats right. Would fit right in. Probably not too expensive to get. Another guy the Jays might take a flyer on depending what their scouts say.


Pittsburg...
Not in rebuild mode but always trying to save money and sub 500/20+ out so they might be thinking. No one jumps out though as they have done a good job keeping scary deals off the books.

San Diego...
Nah, nothing to see here.

Arizona...
Paul Goldschmidt - owed less than $20 mil over next 2 years total so probably not available, or at least not at a reasonable price. 147 lifetime OPS+ just entering his age 29 season and an option exists for a 3rd year at under $15 mil so unless the people running Arizona are drunk he isn't available.

Colorado...
Carlos Gonzalez - owed $20 mil then a free agent, just a 110 OPS+ last year WAR's recently went 4.9 -0.7 3.1 2.2, plays RF and bats left so a perfect fit for the teams needs (assuming if Bautista returns he is mostly a DH/1B or maybe moved to LF). But the Colorado factor is there.

Charlie Blackmon - in arbitration, still cheap so not easy to get. 129 OPS+ last year in CF but was a RF regularly a few years ago. An interesting option I'd say depending on what Colorado wants.


So that covers off the horrid teams and contracts they might want to deal from what I can tell. Few jump out as both likely to get and useful to get. Matt Kemp is the most likely match after Votto & Braun I'd say. Lots of 'wouldnt that be nice' guys and a few 'oh god no' ones too. Guess we'll see what can be done. I know no one called the Donaldson trade (at least I don't recall anyone predicting that one) so one never knows.

Would you trade Jon Harris + Pentacost+ Mitch Nay for Will Myers

If they can give 8M to Smoak, they can probably afford a premium on somebody who is actually worth it.

What good prospects were traded by Cleveland in the last 10 years?

If you really think about it, any free agent trade
Such as Max Pentecost, McBroom and Lopes for Braun is really

Pentacost, McBroom + Lopes = Braun + 1st Supplementary Pick

Just don't understand , why not use the depth of the farm club to achieve players like Votto, or Braun, and a young 3 year old player.

The team than sets the terms for a long time.

SRF , Harris , Perdomo, Greene, Maese are the top five pitchers presently- giving up one of those players for a Votto, or a Braun who are under 4 year plus an option of 6 year contract, is that difficult to do.

Yes it will cost supplementary players similar to what we offered for Tulo.

Should Jays lose 3 players in the top 15 prospects for two quality MLB players, than why is this such a great issue.

Cost certainty for contracts signed two or three years ago, there is nothing wrong with that.

After reading the top 10 Blue Jays Prospects- there are an additional 5 to 10 prospects that other teams may want. including Pentecost, McBroom, McGuire and Ramirez..

The love for great prospects that are 4 to 6 years away from the ball club, what is Smoral worth today- what is Mitch Nay worth today? They are now throw in to a two or three prospect deal for a quality Mlb player.

Despite the apparent appeal to some of having the guy who suggested that the Fedex driver tampered with his sample when Braun knew very well he was using PED"s, it's more than extremely unlikely.

First of all, after Colabello a few months back, I don't think the team wants another PED guy right away. Second, Braun has a no-trade to a number of teams, one of which is Toronto.

Jensan, living in the US doesn't make you automatically correct when you throw around ridiculous statements about US politicians. In Watergate, a US president and dozens of his aides were found to have broken the law. Hillary Clinton has not been charged with anything, and the FBI has specifically said that there's no evidence of law-breaking. If you don't see the difference, I can't help you any further.

Clinton has not been charged as of yet. Should I be wrong in my belief, I will admit that I am wrong, something that Hilary and Bill have difficulty doing.

By the way, i THINK Trump is a jerk and Gary Johnston is a veritable moron.

A name I have mentioned before that might be a solid one year pick-up is Matt Holliday. He is coming off the lowest wRC+ of his career, but his batted ball profile was right in line with his norm for the most part, with the main outlier being a low BABIP. If they put him at DH/1B full-time where his old body can rest and his defense won't be as bad, then it might be a reasonable risk to take hoping his bat bounces back to a 120-ish wRC+. Ironically, Bautista would be a similar buy low option (10 month difference in age), but Holliday would probably be the easier sell on a one year contract.

I can't see this front office trading any (significant) prospects yet, and Atkins even made a quote in his recent media session suggesting that. If there is a Liriano type of contract out there attached to a position player, then I could see that since it wouldn't cost much, but unless a really good player with a reasonable contract becomes available via trade, then I'm guessing we will see more vet stop-gaps until prospects start to prove they are ready.

The free agent market looks good enough to fill the 1B/DH holes, but how they fix the OF is the real question.

Holliday was someone I considered, but would be conflicting with Bautista, if he were to accept at QO.
His defense was worse in the corner pro-rated than Bautista or Saunders, and he doesn't have any 1b experience before a 10 game sample this year, which means I think you still have a ton of Smoak signing him. He would be a definite change of pace from Bautista for image.
They seem pretty comparable too.
I checked woba per career - I'm not sure if this will work, so if it doesn't go to fangraphs page for one of Holliday or Bautista then click on the compare tab.
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=0&type=comparison&num=3&h=450&w=450&position=OF&page=8&players=1873,1887" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="450" width = "450" style="border:1px solid black;"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size:9pt;">Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF&page=8&players=1887">FanGraphs</a> -- <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF">Matt Holliday</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1887&position=OF">Jose Bautista</a></span>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=0&type=comparison&num=4&h=450&w=450&position=OF&page=8&players=1873,1887" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="450" width = "450" style="border:1px solid black;"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size:9pt;">Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF&page=8&players=1887">FanGraphs</a> -- <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF">Matt Holliday</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1887&position=OF">Jose Bautista</a></span>
Holliday still leaves us needing a lefty bat or two.

I can't see this front office trading any (significant) prospects yet

I can see trades for players with value and team control on reasonable contracts. I think that's more likely that signing bad deals on the free agent market for too many years and too many dollars.

@bnicholsonsmith
#BlueJays OF prospect Anthony Alford named to Arizona Fall League All-Star team after hitting .295/.380/.523

I suspect the new front office is a lot like the old one in the respect of not wanting to do 7 year deals and the like. Especially with pitchers.

So does any website have a list of free agents for this winter with stats? Cot's has a list of potential free agents, but not stats so with my terrible memory it is hard to go over it without missing a lot.

Guys like Beltran could be good on a short term deal (2-3 years at most) to fill in until kids are ready. The ex-Jay listed are always interesting. Travis Snider, Alex Rios, Colby Rasmus, John Mayberry, Adam Lind, Mike Napoli (a paper Jay) at 1B/OF. Aaron Hill, Tim Collins, Casey Janssen, Brandon League, Marc Rzepczynski are all listed as well. I'm sure other ex-Jays are there somewhere and I'm missing them.

The rotation is already set, barring off-season/spring training injuries.
I'm sure Estrada will do whatever is best for his back, being in another contract year. At first I thought the Jays would extend his contract, but being in position for another QO is actually optimal.
There's probably room for a true long man if they don't pick anyone in the Rule V.

The pen has Osuna and Grilli, Barnes andTepera are probably good enough for low leverage innings. Just need a couple of lefties and a swing guys. So the bulk of the pitching is needed at Buffalo.

Getting Votto will solve the uncertainty around EE and JB. How can we get Votto then ? Being a Torontonian under long term contract would be going to help Votto become an icon for the city in the ML. In my opinion, he would if he could be a Jays.

Matt Holliday can be a buy low option which could be flipped later on if he regains some of his past performance: selling high.

Votto makes tons of sense but iirc has a no-trade clause and will exercise it I suspect. He seems to love it in Cincinnati and odds are the Jays would have to pick up the option year at the end at the very least to get him to come. Thus making it a $192 million gamble on a guy turning 33 next year (most players become pumpkins around that age) over 8 years. Could re-sign Edwin for a LOT less than that. Of course, if Cincinnati picks up, say $70+ mil of that and includes a couple good prospects then it might make sense. Might.

I would love Votto here as much as anyone but realistically I don't see how it could happen.

How the Jays value Rowdy Tellez, (bats left, 6'4"220, 21) will be determined by what they do now. He is an exceptionally talented First Baseman in New Hampshire, who could possibly be the Jays' Starting First Baseman in 2018 or 2019 or an extremely valuable trade piece.

About Votto, I was just responding to some comments about getting Votto to Toronto, in case some readers think I was pushing for it.

Betweem 2017's EE aged 34 and Tellez aged 22, a whopping 12 years gap means some 1B options are necessary, whether EE, JB, Smoak, Matt Holliday or even Art Charles coming back. Maybe the Jays shall let evolution at 1B takes it natural course; and re-signs who perform well.

Regarding Kevin Ahrens and former Jays prospects and minor leaguers,
former minor leaguers K. C. Hobson, Cory Burns, Caleb Gindl tied some independent league records: the Jays farm system produces quality players who earn their own place elsewhere. Ahrens was mentioned. Given Hobson is also a 1B, the uncertainty around 1B in my opinion is not as cloudy as it seems. However to sustain how EE contribute to the team offense with someone else is a topic itself, if he leaves for another team.

BRef has this, for minor league batting and pitching leaders in free agency with stats.

More from Manuel's prospect chat, from Stoeten:

"I could see at least 6 Jays in the Top 100, down to Rowdy Tellez, and could see Bo Bichette and/or TJ Zeuch in as well," he explains. Tellez, Zeuch, and Bichette rank six, seven, eight in the system, with Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and Richard Urena ranking between that group and Guerrero".  Nice to see he's higher on Zeuch than some round here.

He also sees Pompey as top ten had he not lost his rookie status and cites him as a potential long-term solution in CF

altogether very promising. 

nice.

I mentioned before that I thought we had 6 guys that deserved top 100 consideration, and i wasn't really even considering this year's draftees (i.e. zeuch/bichette).

I doubt they all make it, but imo they would if they were a part of more favored organizations. Would be a nice surprise if it happens.

I also think at least 3-4 of them deserve top 50 consideration, but that definitely won't happen.

Making top prospect lists is nice. Having multiple top 100's is a very good thing but the difference between top 100 and top 50 is minimal.

An interesting analysis is at Hardball Times. It shows how having 5 or more on the list vs having 1 or 0 is a massive difference in how well a team does. Having 15+ over 3 years vs 6 or fewer over 3 years is also a big indicator of success. Basically about 50 points in winning percentage (8 wins roughly a season).

A review of a group of top 10's by FanGraphs is out there too.

A very good one though from FanGraphs is checking prospect value by where they were in the lists. Shows ranking 1-25 for hitters and 1-10 for pitchers seems a guarantee of strong performance (10+ WAR) and that hitters will be far more likely to perform well regardless of position in the top 100 than pitchers (no shock really).

The model for a permanent contender is to sign decent free agents on reasonable terms when you have prospects on the cusp of breaking out, so the next year, you can trade those free agents for more prospects and go with the young guys.

It would be difficult to do this with EE or Bautista on long contracts.

When is the new CBA made public?

I think the model is more about building a young core first, and then supplementing with free agency. Having a perennial top farm system will also lead to more "expendable" prospects, which can be traded for mid-season pick-ups once the win curve is high enough to justify it. In their first year on the job, the current front office prioritized veteran starters (Estrada, Happ, Liriano, etc), and kept the prospect base in tact. Keep doing that, and with any luck, the Jays will start to see at least a few of the position player prospects start to make an impact over the next few years. Probably too soon to expect that in 2017, though.

I've said before, I am a big fan of the "veteran rotation, young offense" mindset. That seems like a much safer way of team building. The Cubs did it about as perfectly as you could, and added free agents when they saw the core going to the next level.

I've said before, I am a big fan of the "veteran rotation, young offense" mindset. That seems like a much safer way of team building. The Cubs did it about as perfectly as you could, and added free agents when they saw the core going to the next level.
Yep. A lot of teams want to go the "grow the arms, buy the bats" model but I've long thought the best way is the opposite. Load the team up with position players by drafting and developing those guys, and then fill in the pitching however you can (trades, free agent signings of mid-range guys).

It should be noted that the Cub payroll for 2016 was $189 million, and will probably be similar to that in the next few years. 

I missed/forgot the Rizzo history.  He was drafted by the Red Sox in 2007, traded to the Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal and then re-acquired by Epstein (now with the Cubs) in 2012.  After his good 2012 season at age 22, Epstein signed him to (what turns out to be) a very favourable contract for the club with reasonable team options through 2021. 

On the other side of the ledger (at least so far) is the Jason Heyward signing.  You can't win 'em all, but it sure helps to have the money to make big mistakes.

I think the reason a lot of team seem to want to 'grow the arms' is because pitchers get hurt often, and you need 12 of them now and until they are settled in the majors they can be shuffled from rotation to pen depending on need and even after getting settled in the majors that can shift.

Hitters are a lot less flexible. You develop a guy at 1B and you can't move him to 2B if there is a hole there. You have a hole at SS and have 3 guys at 3B you can't just shift one of those extras to SS without ugly consequences. But a starter who is blocked can be moved to middle relief.

The best to win is to draft well, trade well, and sign lots of good free agents - aka the cubs model.

Bryant 8.4war - draft
Rizzo 5.2war - trade
Fowler 4.7war - free agent
Zobrist 4.0war - free agent
Russell 3.9war - trade
Baez 2.7war - draft
Contreras 2.2war - free agent
Heyward 1.6war - free agent
(Schwarber -0.1war - draft)

Ross 1.7war - free agent
Almora 0.9war - draft
Soler 0.7war - free agent
Montero -0.1war - trade
Coghlan -0.5war - trade


Hendricks 4.5war - trade
Lester 4.3war - free agent
Arrieta 3.8war - trade
Lackey 3.1war - free agent
Hammel 1.5war - free agent

Chapman 2.7war - trade
Montgomery 0.9war - trade
Strop 0.8war - trade
Rondon 0.6war - rule 5
Edwards 0.6war - trade
Grimm 0.6war - trade
Wood 0.1war - trade
Cahill 0.0war - free agent


only 4 players actually drafted by the cubs. only 2 that actually made an impact this year.

I think there are many different strategies to winning, execution of that strategy is the key IMO.

Last year the Jays made their moves early and that paid off - I think this year with so many choices in the corner outfield/1B/DH types, the Jays may take the more patient approach.

This FO doesn't seem to be the claim every suspect off waivers type that AA was renowned for.

I see Charlie Morton is a FA - I won't mind him as the swingman/6th starter - good groundball rate - likely some team will give him a rotation spot.

Doing a quick transaction check... 2015 October to 2016 October
38 granted free agency
35 signed free agents (from Domonic Brown to JA Happ)
12 trades (4 times got cash, once gave up cash)
17 released (Roberto Hernandez twice)
4 off waivers (Lake, Montero, Paredes, Venditte)
1 lost on waivers (Ben Rowen)
1 rule 5 (Biagini)
2 purchased (Leon, Leroux)
2 retired (Izturis, Rafael Soriano)
3 sold (Paredes, McCoy, Hynes)

Then back to 2015 (oct 2014 to oct 1st 2015)
21 granted free agency
35 signed as free agents
12 selected off waivers (including Schultz, Smoak, Colabello, Barnes)
4 lost to waivers (inc Valencia)
12 trades (just twice involved cash, coming here both times)
11 released
5 sold (3 to the Dodgers)
1 purchased (Ronald Torreyes)


Seems the new team is willing to use more tools than AA (Rule 5 draft). Same # of trades, new guys release more often, identical in free agent signings.

I think the model is more about building a young core first, and then supplementing with free agency. Having a perennial top farm system will also lead to more "expendable" prospects, which can be traded for mid-season pick-ups once the win curve is high enough to justify it.

Building a young core is more an end target than a first step. The easiest way to build a young core is to tank for several years, the way Cleveland did, and that's the last thing I want to see. They used seasons of 65, 68, 69 wins to help their draft. The Cubs went 61, 66, 73, 97, 103.  Not my idea of a perennial contender.

Lester cost 25M a year, Lakey pockets another 16M. Hendricks is a soft tosser with peripherals that predicts a solid regression. Arrieta is a free agent and Hammel, who didn't make the playoffs roster has an option for 10M. It looks like they will need to spend a lot to retain the same level of pitching.

Correct Scottt. I don't expect a bad year in 2017. So building with top 10 draft picks is out.

BA also published top 35 Independent League prospects:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/dalton-wheat-art-charles-top-loaded-indy-prospects-list/#57BRqqUZ2ZSs3PMb.97

with the top 10 having more detailed mentions

Does Indy league prospects mean anything ?

Huh. Charles was a monster this year for NJ Can-Am. His numbers while he was a Jays farmhand are as ugly as Ryan Schimpf's, though to Charles' credit he's a couple years younger. I wish him the best, as he's sure to get a shot somewhere next year, but is anyone else concerned about how it seems like a number of failed young Jays hitters seem to find much more success once they're not with the Jays? I know Eric Thames still has to prove himself at the ML level, but man, has he made a mockery of KBL pitching the last three years.

Seattle and Baltimore gave up on Thames too, and he might not turn out to be anything more than one of the most dominant hitters in the history of the KBL. Somehow though I doubt the Jays would've just dumped Ryan Schimpf if they had any idea he was a much better hitter than Justin Smoak at a fraction of the cost.

Once the Jays system develops some elite hitters I'll stop worrying. Even the best development systems make mistakes, but organizations regarded as having great development systems also hang on to some of these guys.

I might be cherry-picking here, but I hope the Jays lose less of these hitters in the future.

Thames would have been ok as a platoon players but his defense wasn't good enough.
Defense, unlike hitting, has nowhere to go but down.

It doesn't look like the Red Sox are crazy about signing EE to a 5-year deal after all.
It's hard to replace an MVP left bat with a similar right bat and hope everything will work out the same.
Also, they have a lot of players who could possibly rotate through the DH in case of injuries.
Bautista might be a better fit on a 2 or 3 year contract.

They're probably more worried about pitching.
Wright had an excellent season but how likely is a knuckleballer to repeat that?
Pomeranz, Buchholtz and Rodriguez are no sure things.
And there's all those  of arbitration eligible players.

I dunno. For the platoon the Jays could make between Thames and Schimpf at DH/1B, and the defensive versatility that Schimpf provides, there'd be a lot less at-bats for Ryan Goins and Justin Smoak, and I doubt the Jays would be committing to another $8.5M worth of Smoak.