The generally awesome Kathryn Winnick is with us!



"Vikings" resumes its fourth season next month, and I trust we'll all be waiting to see Josh as a mighty warrior.

Guys are loose. Bautista and Donaldson had a HR contest in BP today - left-handed. Jose definitely reached the seats (he hits LH in BP quite regularly), don't know about Josh.

Maybe Bautista should bat lefty today. He hasn't exactly been crushing the ball from the right side.

The generally awesome Kathryn Winnick is with us!

She is awesome and Canadian.

She's not too hard on the eyes, either.

As meritorious as the Blue Jays may be, this games will definitely be as well. One way or another.

Some folks were wondering why Upton's at DH instead in the outfield. Wilner had the explanation. In the event that a RH comes in, Saunders can hit for Upton - and if you then see Miller, you can still go to Navarro, the only guy on the team who seems able to hit him.

Well thank God for Wilner.

I heard he was pretty good at softball, according to his blog.

Dioner Navarro has made Josh Thole look like a good hitter this year. Small sample alert?

two outs 2 strikes and they get a run off two meatball pitches and a fielding miscue. dang.

the last thing we wanted was to give this kid an early lead to calm him down.

lmao. even the rookie gets a ginormous strike zone on botb sides of the plate. unreal.

I'm focussing on Merritt and he doesn't appear to be shaking in his boots.

Sigh. We knew the umps would be pro-Cleveland but c'mon. The kid didn't throw a single strike to EE.

Is Joey Bats worth even a non-roster invite to spring training at this point?  (Not sure the extent to which one can telegraph a reverse jinx without losing the reverse jinx's power.)

Kind of karmic that the OF defense decision immediately punished us. :(

I wish the Jays were facing a real pitcher. It might not hurt so bad.

I second that Parker.

Crying laughter is only a couple at-bats away.

They can cry all they want about bad calls. I just wish they would swing at actual strikes.

I generally don't like assuming I know things better than actual professionals, but you'd think that with two strikes you'd protect the plate a little bit more. What was Upton thinking taking that pitch?

That being said, I won't mind too much if the Jays make this guy look good one time through the order. But he gets through us twice with no damage I'll be very annoyed.

6 first pitch strikes looking for merritt thru 6 batters.

I don't mind the first pitch called strikes. I mind the comically bad two-strike approach a great deal.

Yeah I don't mind the first pitch strikes much either. They're facing him for the first time so it makes sense to size him up a bit.

Here's hoping MVP Carrera can come through with a hit or a walk.

I don't know where the Jays lost their bats but it looks like they are either lost in space or some remote Caribbean island.

2nd time through the order they've gotta get this guy. It can't end like this.

lotta 2 out 2 strike offense. that's painful.

Keep swinging for the fences at outside junk. Why change your approach at this point?

I don't mind the first pitch called strikes.

I do. I understand it, first time you've seen the guy. But he's a strike-thrower. Take the first pitch and you're behind 0-1.

What time does the Leafs game start?

I'm surprised they took the guy out so early. Jays didn't seem to be touching him.

I actually like our odds against the bullpen better. At least until Miller comes out.

And this is why getting on him early was important...they have to beat the bullpen now, and this can't be surprising. I'm off to walk with my daughter...hope they comeback while I am not paying attention.

What a fantastic pitch by Shaw to Carrera on the 3-2 count. Nasty. Couldn't have been nastier with Beech-Nut spit and an emery board combined.

Awful swing by Pillar to strike out. I can only hope that one day he learns to hit.

well we were going to have to beat their good RP at some point if we wanted to win the series. might as well be now.

Or we can try the 7th inning instead.

2 outs on one pitch.. Miller could close this out..

sigh.

top of the order will get one more shot in the 8th or 9th, likely not against miller. that's probably our only chance left.

You know, despite watching this team in September I still kind of took it as a given that they would clobber this no name lefty starter and was looking to game 6. Maybe they did too.

The main hope at this point is that Miller's arm falls off in the next two innings.

How did EE's blast not leave the yard? Just can't seem to break through...

Well when 3 of your top 5 are hitting sub .125 and are being outhit by Darwin Barney you're not going to do very well. (not to mention Pillar hitting sub .100) Sadly only Donaldson, Saunders and Zeke showed up this series.

The many warning track fly balls have also been frustrating.

If anyone has any good luck charms now is the time to use them.

For all the talk about Cleveland's bullpen, Toronto's has been pretty good too.

Faster runner there, and no out..

Maybe I'm missing something, but why didn't they pinch-run for Navaro?

Can Navarro teach the rest of the team how to hit Miller?

I guess Gibby thinks Navarro will come again to the plate?

I was surprised Pompey wasn't used to pinch run for Navarro in game 3, and can't suss out why he wasn't used again today. I have to assume he called Gibbons a rock sucker to his face.

Crazy the bullpen here might have gone the entire ALCS without giving up a run.

Rarely does the speed of the lead runner have much impact on a potentially double play. That was the thinking, but that was the one situation where having a fast lead runner would have made a difference as the only play was at 2nd. Should've pinch run.

pinch running for a guy on first 3 runs down isn't exactly common.

Miller in the series: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 14 K.

He'd have pitched 10 innings had the series gone 7 games!

With the top of the lineup up on the 9th, there's nothing wrong with playing for 1 run now.

Well, I wonder if we'll have a new manager next year. Maybe a new hitting coach?

Ugly is right. You don't pinch run down three. Anyway, we can argue the small things but the reason the Jays are losing is simple. They can't hit.

This could be out, final ABs for Bautista and Encarnacion in a Jays uni. Hope they make them good and loud.

Well one more time for the top of the lineup to show what they can do.

This Miller fella is pretty impressive for a guy with a 4.22 career ERA.

osuna really has had one crazy good postseason.

that's a start.

(can't believe they took out miller)

Fair enough--I know it's 20-20 hindsight. He's just so darn slow...thought it might be an "every little bit helps" situation.

Do you hit for Martin, if it gets that far?

With who? Smoak?

Martin's like what - 2/35 or something? Just about anybody..

That's all, folks.

poop.

Sigh. Appropriate to be shut out to end the season given how they hit in September and October with the exception of against Texas.

Ah well, still the 2nd best season since 1993 ended.

We needed a rivalry with Cleveland, like Baltimore/Texas. Feels like they never got up for this series like the WC + ALDS..

Let the off-season speculation begin..

Better to have loved and lost... or something.

Well,that was hard to watch. At least I don't find Cleveland dislikeable like Texas and the other A.L. East teams, and Terry Francona is a good guy. It was kind of a sad way to end it though, not with a bang but a whimper.

Lost to a better team. Not a whole lot of shame in that.

Cleveland and the Cubs have never met in a World Series. Cleveland did play the Dodgers once, although they weren't called the Dodgers at the time, and they didn't play in Los Angeles. I actually wrote about it, with all the brevity you've come to expect from me.

We need less slow, lumbering hitters who strike out a lot.

Well, it's hard to be disappointed about being one of the last four teams in the postseason. Still, that offense was just so putrid that it wasn't even really fun watching this series.

Oh well. It definitely was fun beating the Orioles and Rangers. And I think we have decent odds next year assuming the payroll stays roughly the same. In Shapkins we trust.

Lost to the most unlikeable team in baseball, in my view.

Watching them every day with that ravist logo on cap and shoulder was awful.

Oh well. Time to cheer for the NL.

Having the best rotation in the league and losing to a bunch of 4th or 5th starters hurts.

This whole series felt a lot like the Canada Day game.

The Cleveland Club are just Lindor plus a bunch of unlikeable characters. I mean, Rajai Davis? We didn't like him when he played here.

La-la-la, Ignoreland. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

In Shapkins we trust.

This was still the best Blue Jays baseball this century. Or was last year better? I forgot.

Let's bring more young guns like Travis.

Lack of hitting ended up killing this team.

This season had some moments.  It sure beat anything from 1994-2014.

This might be the most interesting off season for the Jays in quite some time.

It sure beat anything from 1994-2014.

Word.

I'm done polishing, which is probably why the team's season ended today. My bad. So the Report Card goes live tomorrow. (I'm assuming tonight some Sorrows need to be Drowned first.)

Team is old and slow on the hitting side. I hope they can find some diamonds in the rough in the FA/Trade market like they did for starters last offseason and relievers midseason. Because if not its going to be painful next year.

Off season is goi to be fascinating. The 2, 3, and 4 best hitters for the Jays this year are all free agents and as all are pretty much DHs, it's hard to see more than one back. With a terrible fa class and minimal help from the upper minors, what do the jays do? If their pitching were weaker, it would be an obvious rebuild, but the staff is excellent. My guess is that they will play it safe and look for value to upgrade a couple of places while not committing to too much long term salary but I'm not sure.

I'm a little embarrassed to admit it - but I can't help but feel a little embarrassed right now.

What a weird season. From April-September, they looked like a boring good team. Meaning, they never went on any crazy runs, good or bad, but were just consistently good. Then September hit, and man, did the team look all kinds of old and tired. I lost a ton of optimism after that month, but then the WC game and the sweep of Texas suddenly made me a believer again that this team's talent was starting to play to their ability at the right time. Unfortunately, they ran into a hot Cleveland team, and the offense reverted right back to September mode, looking helpless against Kluber and their 4/5/6 starters (their pen was at least lethal to begin with). Just goes to show you, once again, that once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

AA's window ended with two ALCS appearances in two years. So two playoff appearances in the four year window he created. That's a pretty good accomplishment regardless of this team's post-season drought. I did not agree with the short-sightedness of how the team was built, but we have had that debate many times. This window is shut (with JB/EE on bargain basement contracts) and now we have to see how the FO proceeds from here.

I agree with others that this off-season will be fascinating to watch. It will make the David Price stuff discussed last winter look tame by comparison. Wish the Jays season continued beyond today (a WS title would have been nice), but looking forward to the off-season. Tip your cap to the Indians. I don't think they are as hatable as others here seem to think. If the Jays lost to the Rangers it would have been 10 times worse.

"My guess is that they will play it safe and look for value to upgrade a couple of places while not committing to too much long term salary but I'm not sure."


Agreed. There is no one in the upper minors ready to take a starting spot on the big league roster, the free agent market is bad, and they likely want to hold on to as many of their good prospects as possible. I'm expecting some 1-2 year deals to vets in an attempt to remain competitive short-term while continuing to build up the farm.

Three things I'd like:

1. Bring back one of the DHs to a reasonable deal. I have no idea who will be the best but I hope they get lucky.
2. Find a RH OF who they can platoon with Upton.
3. Find a good glove/decent walk rate catcher to back up Martin.
4. I know it's a pipe dream, but find or acquire a league average bay who can play two of the non 1b infield positions and is okay in the corners.

They've got at least $40m to play with, probably more, and need a 1B and DH and maybe an OF (though they have 4 speed/defense OF already so maybe not). SP is set, backend bullpen is set, key defensive positions are set.

just figure it out.

That's not enough. Bringing back the same players and plugging in an OF will just lead to a team another year older and worse. They need impact players to counteract the aging lineup. Problem is those guys don't grow on trees. I feel they need another Happ like diamond in the rough. Gomez? Riddick? I feel it's like d&d and they need to roll a nat 20.

all of sanchez stroman osuna travis biagini will automatically improve due to age.

And I have no problem doubling down on pitching and defense and having just a good not great offense again.

The issue is that the team is aging. There's basically 3 ways to improve the hitting:

-Free agency.....but it's a weak class.
-Prospects....really none ready to jump up to MLB
-Trades....I have to imagine Shapiro wants to hang on to the pieces we've got, since the farm is kind of thin.

So I don't know what you do really.

every team is aging.

the jays have nobody older than 33 signed for next season.

Someone's going to wear this brutal showing by the bats and that someone is Brook Jacoby. I don't necessarily believe he's responsible for this debacle but I think he'll be the fall guy.

Bautista's "shaking in his boots" comment was embarrassing to say the least and of course his two hits today came after Merritt left.

This was a golden opportunity to go to the World Series with Cleveland missing more than half of their rotation. Fitting end to the season. That 4-0 start to the postseason was indeed a mirage.

Carlos Gomez, Steve Pearce, Brandon Moss, Austin Jackson, Pedro Alvarez (to name a few) are guys that could be valuable on short-term deals. I like the idea of bringing Gomez in, especially with the way he finished up in Texas, but have no idea what his market will be. Reddick/Upton would be a good platoon in the OF, but my guess is it will require a big contract to sign him.

I don't think the Jays will be able to get younger next season. My guess is they'll remain a veteran team for probably another team or two as long as Donaldson is under team control, and then go from there.

15 minutes before the "I told you guys" crowd starts beating their drums?  Come on guys, you all know what small sample size is. 

Let's call this season what it is - 4th place.  Out of 30 teams.  For the second year in a row.  with a wide open window for next season.  Any smug know-it-alls want to bet we make the playoffs next year?  I'm game.

Phew.  I feel like a fan again after getting that out. 

Props to the Jays for a great year!  I don't think outside of Happ's performance we were particularly 'lucky', and outside of Bautista's particularly 'unlucky'.  Our core of young talent looks very good (although a healthy season from Travis would be great), the FO proved solid, the farm sported numerous success stories and should be much improved in off-season rankings, and the fan support is overwhelmingly in place for a payroll hike.

Disappointing end, but I'll take it over the last two decades. 

Lost to the most unlikeable team in baseball, in my view. Watching them every day with that ravist logo on cap and shoulder was awful.

I think the Indians are a great team and I wish them well in the WS. They're exactly the kind of exciting young team that I'm hoping our new front office can build. I don't recall seeing all those draped in sanctimony, like Ontario's Premier, (surely for non-opportunistic reasons!), when the 'Edmonton Eskimos' and the 'Chicago Blackhawks' last played in Toronto. But perhaps I missed it. Now, back to the sanctimony....

I think the Indians are a great team and I wish them well in the WS.

I agree. And I think Francona is a first-rate manager who is not unlikable. Plus, he's an ex-Expo. As is Brad Mills. They weren't great players, but they played at a time when I attended many an Expo game.

I'd like to see an Indians-Cubs WS, but I'd be torn about who to root for. Almost reason enough to want to see the Dodgers get there. No problems rooting against them.

Let's call this season what it is - 4th place. Out of 30 teams

I agree this season was exciting to watch and we should appreciate it for that. In baseball, over 162 games, that means, thrilling, despairing, frustrating, hoping, nerve-wracking, wishing... everything that one can possibly feel. Not to nitpick, but I don't see how you reasonably get a 4/30 calculation. They had the 4th best record in the AL, but they certainly weren't better than all of the NL teams.

I didn't see but about three innings of this entire series (the vagaries of living in Southeast Asia), but I echo the sentiments of those comparing the relative misery of 94-2014 to now. It's pretty hard to see this season, and really the last 15 months as anything short of fantastic, on the whole. The country has become a Blue Jay, maybe even a baseball, frenzied shindig. People are living and dying with every pitch again, and this team. Look at some Youtube highlights from games in the late 90's, early 2000's, and early in the Anthopolous regime.

Great season, great stuff.

Best wishes to Cleveland in the WS. They are a great young team, well managed and a worthy representative of the American League. I hope they bring another championship to Cleveland this year.

As for the Jays, I have a lot of regard for this team's front office, and expect them to do interesting things to retool this team over the off-season. I wonder if they like Biagini as a fifth starter, and if so, whether they'll consider dealing Liriano, Happ or Stroman in the off-season for some offensive help.

That 4-0 start to the postseason was indeed a mirage.

SK, it's always disappointing when a season comes to an end (even if you win the WS, as a matter of fact), but let's keep some perspective. The Blue Jays beat the Orioles and Rangers and i thought they were every bit the measure of it. I thought they could play better than the O"s on home field, and I thought they were a better team than Texas. The Indians are an amazing young team, with very good, very deep pitching, power, speed, average and defence. They took out the Red Sox, who bettered Toronto by 4 games in the regular season, in a 3 game sweep. They started this series in exactly the same way, leading 3-0. They deserve all the credit for having won. They were the better team, but so was Toronto earlier. Toronto benefitted from Texas finishing ahead of two better division winners in the won-lost column.

The Cleveland Indians were named about a hundred years ago, and while the name and logo may disturb a lot of people, I see no reason to call the team unlikeable. To me, like it was already pointed out, they are a young and exciting team and I didn't find any of them to be arrogant or in-your-face types. I guess I was just looking at the players and not the team name which originated before their grandfathers were born.

The Clevelands do have a fairly likeable team. I've always admired Francona, I've always had a soft spot for pitchers like Tomlin, Lindor is a breathtaking young talent, and Andrew Miller is a Living God.

Do I want them to win it all? I dunno. Chief Wahoo is not to be endured and if Vin Scully was working the post-season, I'd say no. But Vin has already walked off into the sunset. And I rather like the idea of the Cubs never winning. Ever. As long as the earth revolves around the sun.

There should be some things in life you can depend on.

I also agree the Jays will use Stroman as trade bait. With a strong 1-4 in Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, and Liriano, I see Stroman as expendable. Sign Edwin to play 1st, try to sign Bautista to DH (which won't happen) and hopefully replace Jose's offence with another outfielder (acquired through trading Stroman).

Stroman and Pillar are really the only two players who have value and who could be replaced internally. If they can be used for a BP arm or a legit pair of bats. Go with Liriano (maybe Biagini) and Pompey.

Other than possible exception of EE there is not a FA that I want to see return.

If they can trade Stroman for a young major league hitter, someone like a Myers or Piscotty or in that range than sure that's cool. But trading him for an old vet doesn't make sense. He might not be as good as we thought he would be, but he's still damned good. I wouldn't trade him unless it's a good even trade and its in similar age range,

For the offseason (now that the Jays are officially there) I predict...
1) Saunders, EE, Bautista, Dickey all gone
2) Cecil to be resigned to a reasonable 3 year deal about $15 mil
3) Tons of speculation on a Votto trade, but hopefully the Jays get Braun instead - cheaper, plays the OF corners.
4) A surprise at some point getting someone for an OF corner that no one is predicting right now.
5) A few #6 guys signed or traded for who will start in the pen after fighting for the #5 slot
6) In spring some kid will emerge from nowhere to really push for a roster slot but won't make it.

Blue Jays lost because they were too easy to pitch to because of all those continuous right-hand bats. Unless they can break up a pitchers' comfort level, that won't change. The Jays need at least one top quality LHB that can play behind Donaldson and at least a second top quality LHB that can play behind Tulowitzki. Until that happens, nothing will change.

Don't know why the Jays would trade Stroman.
1) The Jays don't have starter depth to trade. Liriano had some great starts with the Jays and could be a useful pitcher but he could very easily be useless next year and the Jays don't have depth after him.
2) 3/5 of the Jays starters are 33 or over in 2017 and 2/5 are free agents after the year. Stroman gives them a starter long-term
3) Stroman is the pitcher IMO most likely to improve next year so Jays would be trading low.

I am for trading anyone if the return is high enough, but Stroman isn't the best fit. Pillar would be but I don't think you'd get back much for him. Teams don't give up equal value for defense so I think he's probably worth more to the Jays. The guy I'd be most willing to move (which most people wouldn't like) would be Osuna. The market for relievers has been fantastic and the ageing curve for young relievers is almost universally awful. I wouldn't look to trade him but I'd definitely listen. (The Cubs, for example, will lose Chapman after the year and have a whole bunch of amazing young talent in the majors and minors they can move without losing much: Schwarber, Baez, Soler, Happ, Jimenez, etc... Nationals also would want a closer and have amazing young major and minor league talent.)

I was thinking about the playoff draw worked this year, with Texas having a better record but Cleveland and Boston being better teams. What really happened in the ALDS was the best and second-best teams played each other, and the third and fourth-best played each other. Then I remembered how the NHL worked when it was a six team league and I followed it as a youngster. Four of the six teams made the playoffs then and and the first place team played not the fourth place team as intelligent people would anticipate, but the third place team instead, and the second-place team played the fourth-place team. At some point, they discovered the other, other operation.

Apparently, Stroman is arbitration eligible this winter as a Super 2 (MLBTR has his arb figure at $3.5M), but regardless, he is still under control for four more years. There's no reason to move him at the moment. Obviously no one should be untouchable, but he's not an ideal candidate to trade. I don't even think Pillar is either. Hold on to him while he's cheap and then move him in his arb years when he gets expensive (his defense will decline at some point and he's not a good enough hitter to compensate when it does).

Here are the projected arb figures by MLBTR in case it wasn't posted. Pretty safe bet that Thole is not back next season, but everyone else probably is.

Josh Thole (5.165) – $900K
Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

In the end, a Toronto-Boston matchup would've been better for us. The Jays could actually hit the Red Sox pitching. Cleveland was just a buzzsaw.

Baseball Reference has Stroman not being arb-eligible until 2018, but MLBTR has him being a super 2, and estimating a 3.5MM salary for next year. I don't know if he's officially a super 2 yet or that's just a guess.

Congratulations to the Indians - fully deserved - with 3 of their top 4 starters unavailable, not to mention missing their best position player for the year, well done. Miller is making a lot of money for top FA relievers this year, teams are going to overpay.

As someone who will always be the low man on the totem pole with regards to Marcus Stroman (the height thing), I don't think the Jays will be moving him this year - he's cheap & 3 starters are scheduled to be FA in the next 2 years - The Jays will need pitching prospects like Greene,Reid-Foley,Harris etc. to emerge before moving Stroman.

The Jays should NOT trade away a starter.

There are some decent OF bats on the market, despite a weak class. Go get a Desmond or a Reddick. Go get a Morrison.

I don't see why we would complicate things. We've got somewhere in the vicinity of $40-50m (though really there's no actual hard limit there) to replace about 8war between 3 starting positions and some middle relief. the middle relief and probably at least one of those 3 positions should be easily replacable or upgradable cheaply with some smart pickups. So we the majority of that 40-50m needs to go to replacing about 6war between 2 starting position players.

Problem I have with that math is the decline built into the rest of the roster. If we're losing about 6 WAR due to FAs (of course we can resign some of them) I think we need to bring in 8-10 WAR to counteract aging. If you look at the projections there is a lot more downside to the current roster than upside. And that's just to get back to the level we are at this year.

The thing about the Cleveland's is more the mascot than the nickname, which is why I find them far more problematic than the Eskimos and the Blackhawks.  I don't think that makes them unlikable per se - I agree with many of the above comments on Francona and a young team overcoming adversity - but if I was an MLB FA, I certainly wouldn't sign with them, and I'd be happy to tell people why not.

I'm in agreement with those suggesting short term 'stopgap' type players in FA - in addition to bringing back Edwin longterm and Jose on a pillow contract.  Cecil's struggles could dampen his market and we certainly saw that Gibby still trusted him at the end of the year,  If the strategy works, we have a contender again and a host of prospects ready to graduate the farm in 2018 - Urena, Reid-Foley, Alford, McGuire, Harris, Greene and Pentacost spring to mind. 

2017 isn't bereft of youth either - Either Harold Ramirez or Dalton Pompey could make the team out of spring training next season as well, and Tellez could force himself into the picture by midseason.   There are many candidates to fill out the pen amongst Loup, Barnes, Schultz, Tepera, Matt Dermody, Blake McFarland, Girodo, Tim Mayza, Chris Smith and John Stilson. 

If bringing back our guys and using stop gap FAs doesn't work, we deal off talent at the deadline like the Yanks this year and aim for 2018 with a good crop of young talent.  

I think you need to doublecheck that math Kasi. in terms of solely aging, you're talking about a handful of players that we should factor in an 0.5war decline, and a handful that we should factor in an 0.5war improvement.

and there's probably already a solid upgrade built in with Liriano over Dickey.

They should just call themselves The Cleveland Tribe.

It's a better name, already their name anyways, and not offensive.

Improve: Travis, Sanchez, Stroman
Level: Osuna (he's not going to be worth more if they don't make him a starter), Pillar, Jose/Saunders/Upton/Smoak (figure they can't be worse than this year)
Decline: Estrada, Happ, Donaldson, EE, Martin, Tulo, Liriano (not from his full 2016 numbers but certainly from his post deadline 2016 numbers), Barney.

Yeah just not seeing it.

Here are the projected arb figures by MLBTR in case it wasn't posted. Pretty safe bet that Thole is not back next season, but everyone else probably is.

I hope they try really hard to find a better replacement for Loup. 2 bad years in a row, without any signs of getting better.

Of guys who are actually signed, there are 5 starters who you'd maybe factor in a 0.5war decline purely on age factors:

Happ 34, Martin 34, Estrada 33, Tulo 32, Donaldson 31.

that's it.

and liriano. so 6.

Improve/Level/Decline

Well, if we just take the first 3 off each of the Improve/Decline lists and say they cancel each other out.. Or, swap Martin with Donaldson, so that Travis makes up for Martin's decline. I would hope you agree that Sanchez/Stroman and Estrada/Happ are probably close to a wash?

Then we're left with 5 on your "decline" list. Barney's a utility infielder, not an everyday player - so it won't have that much effect. Liriano may not be "really-good-post-deadline-Liriano", but he's an upgrade on Dickey, so we've added 0.5-1 WAR there, which covers Barney, knocks Liriano off this list and maybe even covers Tulo's decline. PLUS, we get rid of Josh Thole, so just that's worth +0.8 (Thole was -0.8 WAR this year), assuming we can find a replacement level backup catcher. If we can find a backup who is +0.2, that's a swing of at least +1 WAR. Even if Liriano's no better than Dickey. But he was, so I'm willing to give him another +0.4 over Dickey, for (IMHO) a pretty realistic +1.4WAR. Sure, Tulo COULD decline 2-3 WAR all by himself, say he's injured all season. But we're talking about aging, not injury.

So about the only declines that are unaccounted for are: Donaldson/EE. Josh is hard to be sure on, you'd have to predict a decline if you're a betting man, but.. it's not a sure thing either. He could easily still have one or two great years in him. EE, figure what - 0.5 decline? Can we find a +1 WAR RF on the scrap heap somewhere? That should cover 0.5 decline from Josh as well.

Not saying my numbers are 100% perfect, but.. Not saying it's all dire either..

Sure I just don't think its likely we are as healthy as this year. We got very very lucky with lack of injuries to the pitchers this year. You can make the math even out if you assume no injuries/setbacks. What happens if any of the top 4 have a setback next year?

Anyway Cameron on Fangraphs already has a post up that the Jays should trade Estrada, Martin and Tulo, take next year to retool and do things like move Osuna to starting and then try to come back in 2018 when the minors graduate some prospects.

They should just call themselves The Cleveland Tribe.

Not bad. Way better, and far less offensive, than my idea (keep the name, but replace Chief Wahoo with Lord Vishnu.)

Or change their name to "Tribe" AND remove Chief Wahoo though I suppose that was the idea?

"Anyway Cameron on Fangraphs already has a post up that the Jays should trade Estrada, Martin and Tulo"

unless we are trading for key pieces of a future core, what is the point of that, exactly?

Cameron makes a very compelling argument, as he always does, but the issues I see are: a) Tulo's and Martin's contracts won't be easy to move for good value, and b) even if so, it might be difficult to convince the Rogers brass that trading two of the team's four or five remaining marketable assets doesn't guarantee utter eradication of the fan support and goodwill (and ad revenue) that the Jays have built over the last two seasons, no matter how much payroll is recovered by the moves - especially after rightly letting Encarnacion and Bautista walk.

Also, subjectively, I love Tulo and Martin. I'm a lot more happy with them under contract than I would be with Bautista and Encarnacion at far, far worse value. As well, if these moves are made, you can forget even dreaming about any sort of Donaldson extension... the money will be there, but the player's willingness to negotiate sure won't be. There's a huge difference between not giving in to a big name free agent's demands, and trading big name players who are still under contract.

I think the path forward is retooling, not rebuilding. QO Encarnacion and Bautista. Bautista's arrogance will virtually ensure that he takes his replacement-level antics somewhere else. The Jays might not get a draft pick out of it when he sits out all next season, and at worst, they're on the hook for a $17M DH who still has a little power and plate discipline left in him. Go through the motions to try to keep Encarnacion and let him become Boston's problem a year or two from now, when they're on the hook for ANOTHER $65-90M of declining 1B/DH logjam who aren't exactly clubhouse Jesus. Saunders and Cecil can walk without being qualified - Saunders' full season isn't worth a QO even if he doesn't have to play in the field, and Cecil has somehow figured out how to get tagged with an almost inexplicable number of losses out of the bullpen - the Jays should be able to do better than that for what it would cost to keep them. Dickey and Thole shouldn't let the door hit them on the way out. Try to draft well and make more deals like what they did with Liriano - use excess payroll to pry prospects from other systems in exchange for picking up contracts that other teams are desperate to dump, if that's what it takes. The Jays need more hitting prospects, and badly.

They're stuck with Smoak, apparently, so I guess he can 1B and maybe he starts consistently doing something to earn the confidence he's inspired in the front office. Hopefully someone like Reddick will sign to shore up the outfield. Since Bautista was barely able to provide replacement-level value this year, it shouldn't take much more than Upton/Carrera to improve on his production. Replacing Cecil shouldn't be much of a chore for a front office that has absolutely nailed acquiring bullpen arms at low cost so far. Other minor holes shouldn't be too hard to fill based on this regime's track record. The Jays will almost certainly not make the playoffs next year, but if managed well, they'll be fighting the Yankees for the division in 2018.

Plenty of players worse than that got traded this last deadline and fetched some pretty good prospects.

unless we are trading for key pieces of a future core, what is the point of that, exactly?

Basically because unless the Jays have figured out as an organization a way to beat the aging curve, it's virtually guaranteed that those players will have significantly less value in the future than they do right now. And you don't even LIKE the new regime, so your faith in them is a little confusing.

Not that I'm advocating for trading them (other than Estrada) but how is it that you can't look beyond a season or two? You seem to many as extraordinarily naïve, but based on the amount of statistical analysis you do, have you never noticed that you have over 100 years of baseball statistics at your disposal?

If you're actually interested in becoming educated about this, take a look at those players' top ten comparables on BaseballReference.com - while you're at it, take a look at Encarnacion's and Bautista's. For those last two, also take a look at what teams have been paying per win for free agent contracts. I'd be very interested in any studies you've done to prove how each one of those players is going to only improve with age, though.

"Not that I'm advocating for trading them (other than Estrada) but how is it that you can't look beyond a season or two? "

unless we are getting future core pieces back for those players, how does it help us in the future?

unless we are getting future core pieces back for those players, how does it help us in the future?

Short answer? Payroll flexibility with minimal loss of long-term production.

Long answer? Figure it out yourself.

payroll flexibility - you mean now you want to sign big free agents?

payroll flexibility - you mean now you want to sign big free agents?

I want the team to retain existing talent that isn't already well into the decline phase of their careers.

It's obvious you want to give Encarnacion and Bautista "all the money" but you seem like you'd also be in favour of keeping Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, and Travis. You're just not worried about it this year, which I totally get. You don't seem to be the kind of person who spends much time planning for the future. I don't think any Blue Jays fan of your intellectual calibre would have a problem with a $280M payroll, but reality sort of gets in the way of that.

what existing talent is due a significant pay raise in less than 3yrs?

Stroman looks to be at 3.5 million this coming year. He's super 2 so in a couple years more he'll probably be near 7-10 million. Well provided he continues to pitch well.

Per Buster Olney on ESPN:

Also, scouts trailing the Jays in this series were astonished by how the Toronto hitters, with years of collective experience, made so few needed adjustments, continuously taking big hacks rather than adapting to the reality that Cleveland's staff attacked them with a double dose of breaking balls.

Can't say I disagree with that assessment.

Someone in this thread sounds as arrogant as Bautista

Is that a plural "someone" ?

It's the shortest way to say what I wanted to say is what it is. I'm pretty sure I'm not handing in an assignment, so...grammar isn't my #1 focus when posting here, however, now that I know you're counting errors I'll make sure to add the extra words and longer posts that I'm sure nobody will enjoy reading. If you want grammar then I'd suggest avoiding blogs, twitter, instagram etc...not that a world with less grammar is a better place to be.

If you say so but grammar wasn't what I was getting at. :)

I see us Bauxites as being positive overall. It is nice to get so close to the final round.

This off season has very interesting paths to go down. I look forward to our discussions.

The FO deserves credit because this years AL final 2 were built from their contributions.

Cleveland is a good young team that is at the beginning of a contending window. Built on a reasonably small budget.

I do not really know if Torontos window of contention is shut. We already possess very good young pitching. So if good pitching is a key ingredient then we have that.

The FO impressed me with their ability to build a good bench. Utility IFs, 4Th OFs and a backup catcher in Navarro. I do not like losing games due to the bench and backups.