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Two pretty evenly matched teams, I'd say. And one of them deserves to lose.

They made us many promises, more than I can remember, but they kept just one.  They promised to take our land, and they took it
          - 
Mahpiya Luta (Red Cloud)




So let's see if it's possible to wipe the grin off Chief Wahoo's face.

We open with two games in Cleveland, and Francona's crew were one of the best teams in all of baseball in their own backyard. Only one AL team could match Cleveland's 53-28 home record, and that would be... the Texas Rangers? Well. That's not so scary. The Jays dealt with that obstacle well enough.

While Progressive Field appears to have become an outstanding hitter's park, it's actually a somewhat one-sided development. Their pitchers don't appear to have struggled too much at home. Their park certainly didn't seem to do them any favours, but they weren't all that much better when hit the road. Cleveland's pitchers put up a 3.90 ERA at home, compared to 3.81 on the road. Opposition batters hit .240/.304/.393 with 84 HRs in neutral parks, and they were just a little bit better when they went to Cleveland: .246/.304/.420 with 102 HRs.

It's the Cleveland offense that has the true split personality. Get them on the road, and they don't look like much at all. They hit just .236/.300/.391 with 86 HRs. They scored just 325 runs away from home - that's just 4.01 runs per game, and no team in the AL scored so seldom, and only one team in the majors scored less often (the Phillies.)

But they're an offensive juggernaut in their own house. In Cleveland they hit .288/.359/.469 with 99 HRs. They scored 452 runs at home - that's 5.58 per game, and that's more than the 2016 Red Sox averaged this year. And the Bostons scored more runs than any other team in the majors.

Well. Further investigation should lead us to expect some pretty huge home-road splits among the players on the Cleveland roster. It probably won't be Corey Kluber, him being a pitcher and all - and wouldn't you know it, Kluber went 10-5, 3.24 at home and 8-4, 3.03 on the road. But in the lineup....
          HOME                    AWAY
Player  HR RBI BAVG OBP SLUG HR RBI BAVG OBP SLUG
Napoli 22  71 .281 .392 .566 - 12 30 .198 .275 .367
Kipnis 13 44 .285 .355 .502 - 10 38 .266 .329 .435
Lindor 6 47 .344 .401 .493 - 9 31 .258 .314 .377
Ramirez 8 49 .347 .408 .544 - 3 27 .275 .316 .379
Davis 3 23 .279 .328 .365 - 9 25 .221 .285 .409
Naquin 9 23 .333 .405 .592 - 5 20 .264 .344 .448
Chisenhall 4 35 .309 .355 .459 - 4 22 .265 .303 .422
Santana 20 48 .259 .374 .510 - 14 39 .260 .359 .486


Whoa. I mean, whoa. With the exception of Evil Ways Santana, who doesn't seem to care where the games are played, everyone is a completely different - and far, far better - hitter at home.
ALCS Game 1: Work To Do | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#333958) #
Six game winning streak on the line tonight! Let's do it,boys!
vw_fan17 - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#333959) #
On the other hand, the Tribe was just barely over .500 on the road. Just like (we said for) the Texas series: all we need to do is split on the road, and take the majority of the games at home. It turned out even better, but that same approach will hopefully work again!
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#333960) #
Kluber has to use 21 pitches in the first inning. Based on playoff history it will be around seven in the second with Pillar hitting the first pitch.
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#333961) #
I am shocked, shocked I tell you (Pillar walked).
christaylor - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#333962) #
Has anyone seen park factors broken down by month anywhere on the interwebs?
sam - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#333963) #
Devon Travis should not be out there. He's not moving well at all.
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#333964) #
Travis is a bit of a DP magnet in this years post-season.
greenfrog - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#333965) #
Boy, Travis is having a tough postseason so far. Giving your opponent extra outs is not what you want to be doing in an LCS.
vw_fan17 - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#333966) #
So, Goins, because LHB?
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#333967) #
Goins because Barney didn't hit in the ALDS?
Mike Green - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#333968) #
Marco Picasso.
rpriske - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#333969) #
It feels like the Jays are having a better game, but nothing to show for it yet.
greenfrog - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#333970) #
So, Kluber for 7, then Miller for two?
greenfrog - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#333971) #
Maybe Kluber for 6?
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#333972) #
Kluber has been pounding the outside corner. The Jays have had success when they go that way. Too few of the hitters have tried to go to "oppo". I would guess more might try in game 5.
rpriske - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#333973) #
What the hell was that strikeout call vs Upton!
Dr. Zarco - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#333974) #
Just your average fastball nearly in the dirt for a called strike. Bautista's was almost as bad.
Mike Green - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#333975) #
Laz Diaz.  Sigh.
SK in NJ - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#333976) #
If Miller's strike zone extends to a hitter's ankles like that Upton caught looking, then the Jays are in trouble.
Dr. Zarco - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#333977) #
Er, slider.
greenfrog - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#333978) #
Two pitches that hurt the Jays in the last couple of innings: the pitch to Bautista that could have been called ball four (but instead was called strike three) and a pitch early in the count to Kipnis that was called a ball instead of a strike on the outside corner. It's a game of inches, and a game where an ump's discretion can make a big difference. A ball instead of a strike, or vice versa, can change the complexion of an at-bat, which in turn can affect the outcome of a game.
Mike Green - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#333979) #
The first pitch to Kipnis was called a ball, but it was a clear strike (a 2% call).  It ended up being pretty important. 
rpriske - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#333980) #
This is a joke. What percentage of Miller's 'strikes' are actually in the zone?
blu-j - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#333981) #
Well those strikeouts by EE, Jose, and Martin kinda sucked.  Just can't seem to get the big hit tonight.

Brilliant insight, I know.
greenfrog - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#333982) #
I'm not sure why Martin is batting fifth. I would prefer to have Tulo and maybe Saunders ahead of him, at least until he gets untracked.
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#333983) #
Need the bats to get going.
Mike Green - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#333984) #
Great game for Estrada.  Nice matchup tomorrow with a full pen ready. 
scottt - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#333985) #
Batting order doesn't really matter and the Jays don't score many without the long ball.

Terrible work behind the plate by the ump.

This was like the Canada Day game. The Jays won the next 7, so hopefully tomorrow works out better.

I guess Goins/Barney make a platoon.

BlueJayWay - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#333986) #
This game was basically lost when they didn't score in those first few innings despite all the baserunners. This was a game I was hoping they could sneak in there and steal but it didn't happen. It's now Happ/Stroman/Sanchez against Tomlin/Bauer/Charlie Wholestaff with three straight games in Toronto after tomorrow. Advantage Jays.

It seems they have to go a second year in a row without a healthy Devon Travis in the playoffs.

Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#333987) #
Kluber just worked away, away, away.

The Jays tried to pull, pull, pull.

The Jays had several hits to the opposite field, they had a couple up the middle.

Did they have a pulled hit?
Gerry - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#333988) #
I checked, Saunders pulled one to right.
Dr. Zarco - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#333989) #
As good as Donaldson's base running was to win the ALDS, there is no reason he shouldn't have scored on EE's 1st inning double. He held up twice between 1st and 2nd despite no fielder being remotely close. Hard to know if an early run would have loosened things up.
StephenT - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#333990) #
Thanks Zarco.  TBS didn't show us that.  They even missed the pitchers' windups sometimes, such as before the strike 3 call on Upton out of nowhere.
Chuck - Friday, October 14 2016 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#333991) #
Ernie Johnson seemed put out that he had to cover a baseball game. That was one uninterested broadcast team that was only paying moderate attention to the game. Kinda like Laz Diaz (Laz Diaz in the post-season? What the what?).
Kasi - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#333992) #
Yeah I don't see him contributing this series. He's getting a MRI tomorrow. Silly rule that they now have to go with 24 instead of 25.

And yeah game was lost when they couldn't cash anyone in the first three innings. Well better luck against Tomlin I guess.
eudaimon - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 02:47 AM EDT (#333993) #
I don't think that was too bad a game really. We lost to their best starter (one of the best in the AL) and were just one hit away from getting some runs on a few occasions. It didn't work out, but it doesn't always and I think the offense looked about as good as an offense can look in a shutout. The team made Miller and Allen work (and familiarized themselves with them) while our bullpen got the night off. We get to take on much more welcoming starters in the next few games. Oh, and Laz Diaz (how is he a playoff ump?) has some crappy calls that hurt us more than it hurt them. That should even out as the series goes on.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#333994) #
I read before the game that Diaz is scored among those whose calls tend to favour the home team, and he's in the bottom third of umps for strike zone accuracy, so there wasn't a lot of surprise with what we got behind the plate. If this game had been played in Toronto, and we'd won 2-0 the same way, we'd not think it was because of the umpiring. They had a recent Cy Young winner starting and one of the two best baseball players on the field at shortstop, and they won. So no great surprise there either. Was that Estrada's first complete game? Amazing that Lindor is just 22 years old.
Glevin - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:12 AM EDT (#333995) #
Obviously, not happy losing but this wasn't a bad loss. Kluber is maybe the best pitcher in the league and gets only one other start in the series. Jays have to take it to the lesser starters. I know Travis said he felt fine before he got hurt but he sure didn't look fine.
jjdynomite - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#333996) #
Lindor is a pleasure to watch. I'm sure Shapkins have mixed feelings as they see their prized first rounder taking it to the Jays.

I doubt they have mixed feelings about Laz Diaz. If my Spanish was better I'm sure I could pick up some creative curses by reading the lips of JBats and EE. I could make out more than a few of Upton's Pryor-isms.

Oh well, now I know what it feels like to be a Rangers fan after Happ's Game 2 escape-artistry. Nice to know Happ's on tap for today.
SK in NJ - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#333997) #
The Jays had their chances in the first few innings and couldn't cash in. I concur that I was surprised Donaldson did not score on Edwin's double in the 1st. Maybe that would not have changed the outcome, but leading 1-0 may have taken some pressure off. Against Kluber, you can't waste chances. He's too good.

The Jays lost to the other team's ace. Now they see Tomlin, Bauer, and a make shift start by the entire staff before seeing Kluber again. They have to take advantage of these next 3 games.
electric carrot - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#333998) #
If  I was Gibbons I would bat Bautista leadoff and move Tulo into the cleanup spot for this afternoon's game and bat Carrera 9.
Parker - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#333999) #
This might not be a popular opinion, but I'm still curious what people think about it. For a while now, a lot of other teams' blogospheres have opined that some of the Blue Jays' more prominent hitters are whiny and self-entitled, and I've seen a couple of mainstream articles this year that actually go so far as to label the Jays as "the most hated team in baseball."

Here's the unpopular opinion part - as subjective as this might be, my personal observation is that for every legitimate blown call the Jays complain about, it seems that there are another two calls where they SHOULDN'T be complaining. Combine that with antics culminating in The Bat Flip (which was great theatre for the fans but has drawn a lot of criticism about respect for the game, rightly or wrongly) and it actually doesn't surprise me at all that the Jays don't get the same calls a lot of their opponents do.

The fan-based narrative is to spin it as the team's intensely competitive nature, and possibly being a little hot-headed. I get the hot-headed part, but every team in the Majors is intensely focused on winning. It's that competitive nature that separates pure talent from actual achievement.

If the Jays don't get calls when they're playing the Red Sox or the Yankees, I can buy into the umpire bias theory. Everyone loves those jerks. But Cleveland?
scottt - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#334000) #
Saunders pulled one to right.

Didn't Encarnation pull one through 3 infielders?
scottt - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#334001) #
Well, Estrada throws mostly straight. He fools people on speed.
The other teams threw a barrage of sliders and nobody can hit a slider out of the strike zone even if it's called a strike.

There's nothing subjective about it. The ump was terrible at calling sliders.
The broadcast team defended it as saying the ump called it before it moved out of the strike zone.
That's just another way to say that the ump sucked.

I blame the first inning on Bats striking out on 3 pitches with Donaldson on third.
They didn't need a homerun to score a run there.

All the Americans fans would love the Jays if they had a 60-102 record.

The Jays have a lineup of right handed pull hitters. That makes them vulnerable to right handed junk.
Notice that Saunders had a pretty good night?
I don't see them morphing into a contact hitting team that sprays balls everywhere just because it would work better in this series.

Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#334002) #
The Blue Jays actually do pretty well on average with the calls, according to the aggregators.  Russell Martin is, of course, a superb pitch framer, and that helps.

My complaint with Laz Diaz calling balls and strikes relates to MLB's decision to put him in this role in the playoffs.  I feel the same way when I see "Navarro DH" in the cleanup slot of the batting order as I do when I see Diaz behind the plate in a playoff game.  Speaking of batting order, Gibbons has flipped Martin and Tulowitzki in the order for today's game (and Barney gets the start at second base). 


John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#334003) #
For the playoffs I'd like it if MLB would use a ranking system from pitch f/x for the best ball-strike calling umps to be used exclusively behind the plate. Do something similar for guys on the bases (could be based on calls overturned at each base for each ump) Use a multi-year rating and each game could have a whole new set of umps if needed to ensure you have as strong a team of umps out there as possible. Especially behind the plate where the calls cannot be appealed to video replay.
ALCS Game 1: Work To Do | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.