another great piece from fangraphs, this time not so rosy for the Jays: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-shared-exploitable-weakness-of-torontos-pitching-staff/

in Sum:

1. Indians are a great base stealing team
2. Jays SP are an awful steals-preventing unit

with one mitigating factor - despite the jays' SP being vulnerable to the steal, other teams didn't actually exploit that too much this year, for some unknown reason.

It was the fear of Russell Martin of 2015 throwing them out.

So Pillar already broke our new toy Statscast:

Of course, you need to get to first to steal a base and stealing home is extremely rare. Just take care of keeping them off the basepaths and avoiding a hit when they are in scoring position and no problem. Given Cleveland's hitting is poor vs fastball pitchers I'd say the combo is overall in the Jays favor. Vince Coleman in the 80's showed how having amazing speed is useless if you can't get to first base. He stole 100+ each of his first 3 full years in the majors but failed to score 100 in one of those years when he had a 301 OBP and is now forgotten by most fans.

Still something to watch for. Hopefully Martin catches the first guy trying to steal and that scares them.

1m
#BlueJays announce rotation for ALCS:
Estrada
Happ
Stroman
Sanchez


can't argue.

despite the jays' SP being vulnerable to the steal, other teams didn't actually exploit that too much this year, for some unknown reason.

I think that's partially because R.A. Dickey was making one of every five starts - if you substituted the work of one of the other RH starters for Dickey the Jays would be right around the league in SB allowed. Maybe it's because the Jays often had the lead, and many teams don't run as much when they're trailing. It does make me wonder if Aaron Loup could get into a game for no other reason than to hold a base-stealer closer to the bag (Gaston did that very thing with David Wells in the 1992 WS, of course.)

Strange but true. Jason Grilli has always been tough to run on, but since he became a Blue Jay no one has even attempted to steal a base with him on the mound.

Now that we are down to the final 4 what kind of World Series droughts have we seen?

Jays: not since 1993, won that year and 1992 for their only appearances in the WS

Cleveland: Last in WS in 1997 (lost), 1995 (lost), 1954 (lost), 1948 (won), 1920 (won)

Cubs: Last there in 1945 (lost), 1938 (lost), 1935 (lost), 1932 (lost), 1929 (lost), 1918 (lost), 1910 (lost), 1908 (won), 1907 (won), 1906 (lost); also the equivalent pre-1900 as the Chicago White Stockings 1886 (lost), 1885 (tied). Geez, they sucked in the WS throughout history. 2 wins, 8 losses, 1 tie.

Dodgers: 1988 (won), 1981 (won), 1978 (lost), 1977 (lost), 1974 (lost), 1966 (lost), 1965 (won), 1963 (won), 1959 (won), Brooklyn years: 1956 (lost), 1955 (won), lost the rest (1953, 1952, 1949, 1947, 1941, as Robins 1920, 1916) pre-WS as Bridegrooms tied 1890, lost 1889.

Nationals: aka Ex-Expos: never to World Series. Made it to NLCS only once (1981 - lost as most Expos fans know all too well).

I know I'm hoping the Dodgers win today. I always boo the ex-Expos.

John,

Vince Coleman averaged 107 runs a season over his first 3 seasons.

Unless I'm mixing something up.



http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colemvi01.shtml

John, I see what you're saying now. My bad

In his .301 obp season he failed to score 100 runs.

Now that we are down to the final 4 what kind of World Series droughts have we seen?

Have you come to us from the future? Any stock tips? I guess you might be coming to us from 7 hours from now, so maybe never mind.

I don't think the stolen bases or the runs scored is what makes everyone want to forget Vince Coleman.

I actually never knew who Vince Coleman was until today.

So I think I'm going the wrong way.

Hey Chuck,

The Nats win.

=)

Go Expos! ...er Nats.

Heh. I should've said 'final 5' forgot there was one more game to go when I started writing it then remembered the game tonight. Guess I wrote off the ex-Expos too soon. Really hope they are slaughtered tonight. Who me bitter about how that went down? Never. At least I have my memories of the one game I saw at the Big Owe where the Expos won in 10 via an inside the park home run (1994 just before the strike).

Vince Coleman was a fun player to watch back in the 80's. Pure speed. 110, 107, 109 SB his first 3 seasons then 81, 65, 77 the next 3. At 21 in A ball he stole 145. At 22 in AAA 101. So 5 years in a row he stole 100+ counting minors. Hard to imagine anyone ever doing that now. Only 21 times in ML history has someone stole 100+ bases with 13 of those pre-1900 when taking an extra base was sometimes counted as a stolen base (record keeping was a crapshoot back then). So 8 times in modern history we have 100+ SB and three were Vince Coleman, and 3 more were Rickey Henderson. Lou Brock and Maury Wills are the other 2. FYI: Tim Raines peak was 90. Yes, the 80's were a fun time for fans of the stolen base. Which might explain why I-Rod was so popular for stopping the running game.

Yeah, Coleman was a genius at ignoring coaches, "accidentally" injuring teammates in the locker room, and throwing firecrackers into groups of kids. What was his career SB/CS percentage again?

Funny mentioning Vince Coleman when (I looked it up) it was exactly 31 years ago today,October 13,1985, that he was caught under the automated tarp at Busch Stadium and injured his ankle. This was during the NLCS and when x-rays revealed a small fracture, Coleman was done for the rest of the postseason. This was known afterwards as the "Killer Tarp Incident".

Interesting - according to John Lott, with Liriano eligible to return for Game 2, the Jays will have to hold a spot for him on the 25 man roster if they want to activate him on Saturday once his 7 day DL stint expires, meaning they will play with a 24 man roster on Friday.  Sounds then like it was critical he demonstrated his readiness to pitch in his bullpen session today, otherwise they may have been tempted to leave him off the 25 man roster rather than risk playing shorthanded for more than just the single game.

Technically shorthanded, but they replaced him with a player that they didn't use in game 3.

If I remember correctly, Osuna blew a save on a slider and started using his fastball more and throwing it harder after that.

Love that chart for Pillar. He is scary good on defense. Shame we don't have that for Devon White as he was amazing but quietly so. He'd get to stuff standing that others diving would never reach. It'll be interesting in a decade or two to see what the numbers show with improved training and the like how much will best shift vs today. I'd love to see it for Willie Mays vs Devon White vs Pillar.

I don't know what to make of the pitching match-ups. On paper it looks good for the Jays, but in a 7 game series, anything can happen. I wouldn't be too confident just based on the match-ups. Both teams appear to be hot, so the hotter of the two teams will come out ahead in all likelyhood, not necessarily the better of the two teams. Regardless, I'd rather face Tomlin and Clevinger than Carrasco and Salazar.

I like the Jays rotation. The offense just has to continue doing what they did in the Texas series.

The crazy things you see in the post season. Kershaw just pitched on Tuesday on only 3 days rest and threw 110 pitches, and now he's pitching tonight on 1 day rest with 2 on in the 9th. And Kanley Janssen just threw 51 pitches.

I didn't like Hill in the matchup and he was gone early.

Pitchers being abused is nothing new, It's a high risk strategy, but it sure beat closers who don't throw a single pitch in a series.

I see Ontario's Premier couldn't resist using Jerry's stand for a presser op.

John Lott reports that Gibbons will use Stroman (if needed) in relief tonight and, if that happens, Liriano will get the Game 3 start.  I thought that Liriano would have to pass an MLB medical examination which would take place between Game 1 and Game 2, and so there might be some risk in that strategy (what happens if he doesn't pass?).  Perhaps the examination will occur prior to Game 1, but even if Liriano passes, he is ineligible until Game 2. 

Wait... why not Sanchez in Game 3?

Heck, why not Sanchez in Game 2?

The plan seems to be limit Sanchez to one start because of seasonal innings limitations.  On the other hand, I am pretty sure that he would be available in a relief role in Game 7, if necessary.  It's not as though they would be asking him to pull a Bumgarner or Kershaw...

Cleveland reminds me of 2015 Royals - good contact spray hitters, lots of doubles, excellent speed and a great pen - Hope 2015 experience proves valuable to the Jays.

and a great pen

Funny, my brain doesn't go there when thinking about Cleveland. When they got Miller, I thought they took a poor pen and made it middling. But maybe I'm wrong.

Miller is obviously the best reliever on either team. Otero has been useful. Allen is good. Shaw is okay. But what else to get excited over? Or maybe that foursome is enough to qualify as a good pen? Could be, but after Miller, it doesn't scare me.

They're also a middling contact team.  Napoli strikes out a ton and Kipnis an awful lot (the Royals last year struck out 273 times less often than the Indians of 2016).  They are not a high-average club, as a result.  They do a bit of everything- the one thing they do very, very well is steal bases, with league-leading frequency and efficiency. 

smoak, feldman, barnes replaced by Pompey, goins, feldman for ALCS.

the Smoak extension continues to baffle.

oops. that second "feldman" is actually liriano of course.

I just checked, Smoak had one hit in September. He did have 18 at-bats.

Now that roster I can believe in.

Pompey > Smoak as Smoak is just a defensive replacement at first base (of all places) and struck out his only PA in the playoffs so far and has hit 159/264/270 since August 1st (72 PA). At least Pompey is great at running and defense and might get time in the OF if the Jays get a big lead (or fall behind).

Goins > 8th reliever as he can play anywhere but catcher and even can pitch in an emergency. Amazing defense so if he is used he will be useful.

Both Goins & Pompey provide super defense plus excellent speed on the bases. Feldman vs Barnes is secondary as the only way either gets in is if it is a blowout for one team or the other or extremely deep into extra innings.

One more Smoak note...
Articles about the extension were on July 16th. From that day to the playoffs he hit 176/263/365 for a 628 OPS over 95 PA. Before that he hit 234/333/402 for a 735 OPS over 246 PA. Seems he will be viewed as a really dumb signing (luckily not expensive at $8.5 mil for 2 years plus buyout - or about what it costs for one year of a really good reliever now).

I always assumed that the Smoak signing was the equivalent of keeping a spare tire in your trunk: you hope not to have to use it, but it's there in case of emergency.

If EE and Bautista sign elsewhere, Smoak might be the best option the Jays have at first base (at least until Rowdy Tellez grows up).

Otero has been useful.

Gosh, Chuck! Doesn't that seem like a bit of an understatement? Guys who give you a 1.53 ERA in 70.2 IP (led the team) are really, really useful, as a rule.

But it is certainly weird how Otero went from one of the best pitcher's parks in the league to one of the best hitter's parks and shaved 5 runs - that's five - from his ERA.

Good roster choices.  If you pinch-run for Encarnacion late, who plays first base?  Goins?  Bautista?

Goins > 8th reliever as he can play anywhere but catcher and even can pitch in an emergency.

Right, so you're math should read Goins >= 8th reliever!

I always assumed that the Smoak signing was the equivalent of keeping a spare tire in your trunk: you hope not to have to use it, but it's there in case of emergency.

Trouble is, that particular spare tire is getting paid only slightly less than the average Jay (2016 starting roster earned 113MM, 4.5 per man; Smoak will be earning 4.25 per year).

Otero is an extreme ground-ball pitcher.  The Cleveland inner defence of 2016 is a lot better than the A's inner defence of 2015- I am sure that when Otero arrived in spring training in 2016 and saw Francisco Lindor out there, he let out a huge sigh of relief. 

Gosh, Chuck! Doesn't that seem like a bit of an understatement? Guys who give you a 1.53 ERA in 70.2 IP (led the team) are really, really useful, as a rule.

I agree, but I was looking a his FIP (still, admittedly, very good) and his 2015 (not so good), but then his prior years were very good.

When I see an ERA in the 1's without a commensurate K-rate, but with a low HR-rate, I get suspicious (though he has been very good at keeping the ball in the park over his career).

He may well be much better than I'm giving him credit for. I'll apologize to him personally if he pitches well in the series. Maybe I'll send his mom some flowers or something.

I was looking at his FIP

Well, there you go. I generally don't look at FIP unless I'm thinking about the future.

On the other hand, I suppose tonight does count as the future.

Should be an interesting series. I anticipate low scoring, thus the key variable will be the Jays offence. Do we see a team that has professional at bats trying to advance runners with intelligent two strike approaches or do we see the Home Run Derby Jays with long looping power swings in two strike counts? I hope the Jays hitters have disciplined AB's or I fear that Kluber will be the series MVP.

If you pinch-run for Encarnacion late, who plays first base? Goins? Bautista?

I would assume Bautista, unless he happens to be the DH that day. While he doesn't have much career experience there, and hardly any these past two years, he has played the equivalent of some 17 games there since coming to Toronto. Goins has 5 innings there, all of them last month.

But on the other hand - both times Goins came in to play 1b this year, Bautista was in the lineup as the RF, and Encarnacion was the DH. Goins was replacing Smoak in the lineup. Gibbons may have been protecting Bautista's knee from 1B, where they can be a lot of twisting and diving and footwork. Don't know how much a factor that would be at this point.

Checking the Jays site for the roster I'd think things go like this...
CA: Martin - Navarro (if Martin run for or breaks multiple bones)
1B: Encarnacion, Goins for defense/running
2B: Travis - Barney - Goins
3B: Donaldson - multiple broken bones - Barney - Goins
SS: Tulowitzki - Goins - Barney
LF: Carrera/Upton (kinda/sorta platoon)
CF: Pillar - Pompey (see multiple broken bones bit again)
RF: Bautista/Saunders/Carrera
DH: Bautista/Saunders

RF/DH will be a mix/match depending how each guy feels that day I suspect. If Bautista is feeling sore then Saunders or Carrera in RF if Bautista is A-OK then Saunders is DH. If Carrera is playing he is in the field, same for Upton.

Rotation is set: Estrada/Happ/Stroman/Sanchez with Liriano the emergency backup.

Pen will be 9th: Osuana (maybe 8th as well), 8th: Grilli/Cecil, 7th: Biagini/Cecil, 6th or earlier: Tepera with Loup for one LH batter here and there and Liriano the long man if not starting. Biagini also there for multiple innings if needed. And of course Goins and Barney are the emergency pitchers although I suspect they'll avoid Goins after his DL stint after his one inning earlier in the season.

Osuana also lands under the 'multiple broken bones to get him out' category. The Jays have a lot of those guys right now. Ones who could have a bone sticking out and would still be out there.

Trevor Bauer has been pushed back to Game 3 thanks to a finger injury. Josh Tomlin will start Game 2 now.

The Indians have switched Tomlin and Bauer in the rotation, due to Bauer's 5th finger injury. 

Jason Grilli pens another awesome story on The Player Tribune.

Carrera leads off in left, Saunders hits 7th and DHs, and Travis bats ninth at second.  You can guess the rest. 

I'd guess barney or goins would be massive defensive upgrade at 1B, if you're worried about defense.

Apparently Trevor Bauer injured his finger repairing drones. Hmm.

Grilli's article is awesome. He was such a good acquisition, and deserves to see the Jays win a WS first hand.

Francona: "It's pretty self-explanatory, we've all, at some point or another ... had a drone-related problem."

Atkins mentioned the possibility of Navarro at first.
The Smoak contract is to cover the next two years when we probably won't see Bautista/Saunders DHing.

I don't see Stroman getting into this game unless we're all tied after the 10th or Estrada gets  knocked out early.

Atkins mentioned the possibility of Navarro at first.

I guess Navarro will be guarding the line at first. He's not going to be able to stray very far from it.