Today's a real balancing act..

Do you try to coax 1 more good inning out of Biagini/Grilli/Osuna, if it's a 1-2 run lead late, knowing you'll get several days of rest? Do you let Sanchez go 7/8/9 if he's on?

If it's a 5-run lead (either way) early, do you take out Sanchez, and try win (or mop-up) with Feldman/Loup/Tepera/Barnes?

Do you send Travis up as a pinch-hitter, if need be? For who? Upton? Does "I tripped on my bad knee and fell and got a concussion" count? :-)

The bullpen shouldn't be a problem today.  Biagini, Grilli and Cecil should all be available for an inning each, and Osuna is probably good for a batter or two, in a close game.  That's in addition to the entire bottom half of the bullpen, who have scarcely been used at all. 

Ideally, of course, the Jays won't need any of their key relievers today.  But if they do, I think they can coax at least 2 or 3 innings out of their main guys, maybe more.

 I'd be more worried if the bullpen is heavily used today and the Jays lose.  Then they'll be going into a game tomorrow with an overly taxed bullpen.  But there's a good chance that it doesn't come to that.

There is no mop-up scenario. A win here would give everyone a week of rest.
Some pitchers have to be saved for a long extra innings game, but Cecil, Loup an Barnes can be used for a single out.

After those guys come the likes of Loup and Tepera and Feldman and Barnes....

Betty, you can call them Al. Et al., to be precise.

Sending Stroman to the bullpen might be something to consider, particularly if this series ends tonight. 

Game 4 would be tomorrow at 1pm, which is early. At least it's a holiday in Canada.

Since we're obliged to watch the TBS broadcast again tonight (if you're not lucky enough to be at the game), let me ask this question:  is it true that Rogers holds the Canadian broadcast rights to the playoffs, and therefore could have simply hired its own team of Toronto-based commentators (or others with some knowledge of the Jays) and used that broadcast crew instead of the TBS feed?  If so, why didn't they do it?  Were they just too cheap to do it?

If I am misunderstanding the rules, and if Rogers is contractually obliged to carry the TBS feed, please feel free to correct me.  But my understanding, from what I read, is that Rogers has the Canadian rights and could have shelled out a few thousand dollars for its own crew.

My suspicion, and I could be wrong, is that Rogers has the option of showing either the US feed or the international feed. However, I'm not sure if there is an international feed before the World Series. I recall reading that they negotiated that Buck would be part of the international broadcast team

Call me crazy but I find the playoff broadcast refreshing. Feel as though I've been fed enough Buck and Pat pablum to last 10 lifetimes already:)

you're not crazy.

So they really are starting this game without a backup infielder, right?

carrera is pulling an eckstein. every championship team needs a guy like that.

and our murderer's row is back, baby!

"....So they really are starting this game without a backup infielder...."

Travis is the backup infielder.  He was being evaluated up until 30 minutes before game time, and the Jays said they were ready to activate Goins if they felt Travis wasn't capable of backing up Barney tonight.  They judged he was capable, so he stayed on the roster.  If the 3B or SS need replacing, they are replaced by Barney, and Travis goes to 2B.

This broadcast has been brutal... and is still better than we are used to.

Kind of strange that they threw two fastballs high in a row to Odor. I would have thought a slider down to change the eye level of the batter would have been better after blowing the first one by him. Sanchez hasn't been as sharp tonight and has missed badly with a few pitches.

Kind of strange that they threw two fastballs high in a row to Odor. I would have thought a slider down to change the eye level of the batter would have been better after blowing the first one by him. Sanchez hasn't been as sharp tonight and has missed badly with a few pitches.

Sanchez doesn't throw a slider. He's been having trouble throwing his curve for strikes. He was missing way outside with the curve in the same inning that Odor homered.

Time for murderers row to put this series away.

Terrific 5th inning for Sanchez, even with the uneven control/command. It would be great if the Jays could get him a couple of more runs, and if Sanchez could survive for two more innings.

Travis is the backup infielder.

That works. I hope it's not a "yeah, he's not really ready, but what's the worst that could happen if he sits on the bench?" type of situation. I don't love Goins, but he can at least cover three infield positions even if he's struggled hard at the plate this year.

Thanks CF, I appreciate the response. At worst, Travis might be a stretch based on health, but he's not a defensive liability with Barney in the lineup, and yeah, Travis can swing that bat.

Gibbons really shanked this inning. Dammit.

sanchez tanks in his first postseason start. too bad.

but the bats can't let their bullpen shut them down for 7 innings now.

Donaldson's double down the line? Fair by inches.

Moreland's double from Pillar's out-stretched glove? Inches.

In the latter case, maybe an inch.  It might have ended up as a sno-cone catch...

upton is my favorite.

make'em pay, Darwin.

HA

Could have used Choo out there.

Big-league defense by JD.

Could Biagini go another inning ? Please don't bring in Cecil.

Beltran and Beltre are not having good at-bats.

I wouldn't take Grilli out here. He looks sharp, has only thrown a few pitches and Cecil has struggled. The game's tied, they may need several more innings from the bullpen.

i would have maybe kept biagini in, but I fully approve of grilli being used as a matchup guy, not a full inning guy.

The problem with that is now they are out of good relievers, and the game is still tied. If they don't score in the 9th, who do you use? Maybe Osuna gives you another batter or 2, but then you are down to the fringe guys. Unless you want to bring in Estrada for an inning or 2.

7 pitches for osuna. does he get another if necessary?

yeah you're right about that but I still agree with using shortterm strategy for the heart of the order there. jays should have 2 more ups before they come up again.

Because they burned through Biagini, Grilli and Cecil so fast, there's nobody else who's remotely reliable, so you've got to use Osuna for another.

Rangers one-run mystique getting tested here.

the kid is amazing. just amazing.

now's the time, meat.

Better score here or start cupping the rest of the bullpen.

Win or lose, you can't ask for much more than this. A tied ballgame heading to the bottom of the 10th, with Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Bautista due up.

Billy Bush took a loss this weekend. How about Matt as well?

Dyson to face Bautista?

i love you joshua but don't admire your gap double before running please.

pretend you are punching odor's face, Joey.

Is another manager going to leave his ground ball closer in the pen in crunch time?!

Ball 4. Ouch.

the jailbird is nasty. looks scarier than dyson to me.

YES

so much for one run game ability.

what a fricken play by donaldson.

Yesss !!

Time to put Osuna in bubble wrap for about a week.

ODOR with the clutch error - even better. sweet sweet karma.

If that had been interference....

Their one-run crap doesn't work in the playoffs.

Seems fitting that the Jays won on a play not made by Odor.

Smells wonderful!

I hope the opponents keep not using their closer in extra innings.

The rest will be nice for a few of the players. Liriano could be back for game 2. No idea about Benoit. Travis should be good to go by then. Osuna gets a well deserved holiday.

Who does everybody want to play, Boston or Cleveland?

Two walk off "series" wins. Just amazing. Going to be a long few days for us to wait until the ALCS!

Great win, exciting game, and key base running for the Jays. Happy that the win comes on the Odor error. Feel a little sorry for Bush, that guy was super good. But the sweep with the rest is just what we needed. Here's hoping Cle-Bos goes 5 with every remaining game an extra innings match.

No one should ever feel sorry for Matt Bush. Ever.

Osuna needs the rest. Hopefully Travis will be better for the ALCS.

I want nothing to do with the Sox. I'd rather roll the dice against Kluber and pray for rain. But either will be a tough matchup.

we're in the ALCS and the sox haven't won a game yet. feels good.

Bad video coverage by TBS.

No replay of Donaldson rounding third.  When and from where did he decide to run home?

No full replay of EE's slide at second.  Did he really stop in time?

Travis was jogging a bit gingerly out for the celebration. Sure hope he heals quickly.

Bats are hot, over 7/game against the rangers. Hope the layoff doesn't hurt that.

A one run win with Odor making an error at the end? Nice way to end it.

Gibbons left Sanchez in one hitter too many, but tying on a passed ball and winning on a stinky error works for me.

I think they should get Stroman to throw a fake game to stay sharp and start the next series back with Estrada/Happ.
I prefer Stroman pitching at home and playing the crowd.

Upton's double was key in tying the game. I would have like them to try a squeeze to stay out of the double play with Upton at third. I think he stole home once this year, from looking at the top 100 MLB play of the year.

No full replay of EE's slide at second.  Did he really stop in time?

The rule is that you have to stay on the bag. There was no contact with Odor before the throw.
I can't really imagine Encarnation sliding into people. Not in character.

that is the most real and likeable i've ever seen shapiro.

Who do we imagine was warming up in the 2 bullpens?  (TBS did not consistently show that either.)

I saw him wearing a Blue Jays toque in New York while sitting in the rain. That was real enough.

Gracious comments from all concerned about the Rangers team. Good to see.

Per Twitter Dyson and Tepera were warming.

Donaldson almost or did completely stop and then bolted from just past the bag. It was gutsy for sure.

Thanks Gerry and snider.

A great victory, and excellent bullpen management by Gibbons again.  The bullpen allowed only one hit and zero walks in 4.1 innings tonight -- that's pretty impressive against a strong-hitting team.  Sanchez deserved better -- he allowed only 3 hits.  The pitching, as a whole, remains very good. 

Meanwhile the Jays offense continues to look strong: they produced 14 baserunners in 10 innings, including 5 extra-base hits.  That combination of great hitting and great pitching could take them a long way in these playoffs.  They are definitely peaking at the right time.

The four rest-days will be much-needed recovery time for Travis, Osuna, Grilli, Biagini, Donaldson, Bautista and everyone else who has been nursing a range of aches and ailments.  But I am a little worried that they could lose their game sharpness.  I agree with those who theorize that the Jays are doing well because they've had to operate at their peak level of focus and performance since the Boston series, with almost no time off.  I worry that they could lose a bit of that focus and concentration with the four days off.

I thought the two questionable bullpen decisions were (1) leaving Sanchez in to pitch to Lucroy after the Odor walk and (2) having decided to leave Sanchez in to face Lucroy, using Biagini instead of a LHP against the next batter, Moreland (who has a pronounced career LHP/RHP split of 78/105 wRC+).

Otherwise, yes, Gibbons' bullpen management worked out very well in this one.

If Cecil had been brought in to face Moreland, Texas probably would have pinch hit Rua. I preferred Biagini vs Moreland, to Cecil vs Rua, so I thought that was a good move. I just thought it was a mistake to burn through all of the good RP's so quickly in a tie game. Fortunately Rougned came through for us. Otherwise, with Tepera in for Toronto, and Dyson for Texas, I think the Jays are in big trouble.

It's a fair point about Rua, although Moreland is a much more experienced hitter than Rua is (and Rua has the weaker overall track record as a hitter, both in the majors and in the minors).

I don't think the extra rest should be looked at negatively. There's nothing that can be done about that. At the end of the day, they won a best of 5 by winning the first 3. That's still the ideal situation even if it results in four days of rest that may (or may not) mess up their hot play. Can't worry about that. Just go out there on Friday and play ball.

Great win but that Matt Bush has some kind of arm.

Is there a worse starting catcher in baseball than Jonathan Lucroy?

@DownGoesBrown
Imagine losing to a team in the playoffs, crying about it all year long, finally getting your rematch, and then getting swept.

Speechless. Could hardly have scripted it any better.

Donaldson running home is so obvious in retrospect, but I bet many would fail to do so. You know that Martin is not the fastest runner and a clean pivot will result in an inning ending double play, so the only way what you do matters is if the pivot isn't clean. And if the double play isn't clean, only an off line throw that pulls the 1b towards home is likely to result in an out at home. Anything bobbled or dropped or thrown on the OF side is very likely to result in scoring a run. So most of the time it is an inning ending double play and doesn't matter. But when it matters, most of the time it is a win. I suspect the break even there is probably about 30%, and the success given no double play is probably 80+%.

I loved the sign in the Dome: "I'd rather be punched in May than knocked out in October." Besides JBats' jaw it shows the resilience of this team that the Boys in Blue won the series going away with core players like Benoit, Travis and Liriano going down (not to mention Osuna for a bit, and the hidden ailments surrounding the rest of the roster, most notably JD). And this team wins going away.

Speaking of resilience, to think that 9 days ago eulogies were being prepared. 6-0 later and they're the first playoff team to move on. Wonder what AA is thinking watching from the States; what a crazy turn of events.

Kind of hoping for a CLE matchup because the BoSox are definitely scarier with their WS winners like Papi and Pedroia (although Price and Porcello's playoff records may give back that advantage). Then again, for those dual Jays/Raptors fans like myself and Magpie, seeing Lowry cheering on in a Stroman jersey is a pretty sweet prelude to taking on LeBron's Tribe in the ALCS. Who will win the East this round?

Apparently, according to one commentator who talked to Devon Travis afterwards,Travis wouldn't have been able to come into the game if needed. After taking a cortisone shot the injury usually feels worse for a day or so before getting better. That left the Jays perilously thin on the infield so luckily nobody else got hurt.

In retrospect, I wasn't accurate when I said that Travis was the "back-up infielder" last night.  The Jays did announce that they would be evaluating Travis up until game time, and they did say that they were ready to activate Goins if Travis wasn't capable of playing.  But in the late-innings crunch, they were unable to pinch-hit for Barney, so it's clear that Travis wasn't really available.  I suppose what they were really assessing was whether Travis would be ready for the next series.  If they believed he would be ready for the ALCS -- as they clearly do -- then they wouldn't want to activate Goins and make Travis unavailable for the ALCS.  So yes, they took a gamble, they went short-handed on the bench last night because they wanted Travis for the next series. 

Interesting comments by Jose Bautista about the disadvantage of the four rest days:

“Hopefully the Indians win (Monday) and they have the same break because I think that’s one of the things that gave us a little bit of an edge over Texas, playing meaningful games down the stretch instead of sitting back and enjoying the finish of the season after clinching it early,” Bautista said. “Hopefully Cleveland wins (Monday) because if that series goes five games I think we’d like to get some sort of game-type situations going. I don’t know if we’ll get some simulated games just to stay sharp.”

Well Martin went the other way on it so I doubt it's so clear cut.

"Some people like to say that a couple days off might throw our timing off," Martin said. "I really don't believe that. At this point in the year, a couple days off can do wonders. For our bullpen, our pitching, it gets everybody's arms fresh. And the same for the guys who are banged up. A couple days off can go a long way."

I do think doing a simulated game would be wise though,

I can see the pros and cons of extra rest. Obviously, a lot of the team is beat up/tired, so rest will give them some time to heal up. On the flip side, being as hot as the Jays are, it's tough having to take four days off when everything is clicking. Plus, assuming the playoff rotation is simply resuming the regular turns over the past week, then it will be 9 days of rest for Stroman, 8 days for Estrada, 9 for Happ, and 8 for Sanchez. Will that have any impact? Who knows.

At the end of the day, like I said above, the Jays did the absolute ideal thing, which was win a five game series in 3 games. Extending the series past Sunday would have been risky given the unpredictability of a short series.

Of course, the Indians winning today would make this whole discussion moot. I don't see the Red Sox going down easy though, especially at home.

Hmm. Do I stick with Henry V? Or does a new series require new thematic material. Decisions, decisions.

I think the position players are vets and will happily take some days off. They have the mentality to handle it well I think. Where i think it could affect things more is the rotation. How are they going to set it up for the ALCS. With how it is now other than Sanchez anyone can go game one. I think they will just do Estrada/Happ again but they could mix it up and get Stroman in there.

I think they will just do Estrada/Happ again but they could mix it up and get Stroman in there.

They could, sure. I would have trouble understanding why. What's the hurry in getting to your fourth best starter? Seems like an unusual way to proceed.

Game One is Friday night - so Sanchez could make the start on four days rest if they wanted to set up the rotation that way... but I don't think they will. I think Gibby will keep things set up the same way: Estrada, Happ, Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, and Sanchez (for Game 7 if needed). Feels like we're under-using Stroman and he could be the long man if needed. Then we could replace Feldman with Pompey.

"....assuming the playoff rotation is simply resuming the regular turns over the past week, then it will be 9 days of rest for Stroman, 8 days for Estrada, 9 for Happ, and 8 for Sanchez..."

I'm a little concerned about the days of rest for the starters too.  I think the Jays have basically admitted that Estrada's problems during the 6-man rotation were due to a lack of sharpness from the extra rest days. 

One of the best things about the post-season so far is that the Jays have eliminated two of the most cranky managers in Showalter and Bannister.

Sweet.

I can understand the concern with rotation rust. But considering the alternative -- the injured Travis being removed from the ALCS roster, Osuna's arm falling off, and, worst of all, sphincters tightening as the Odorous Rangers attempted to deliver an eye-for-an-eye as revenge for last postseason -- how can one not be overjoyed that the series ended in 3.

Besides, considering how the Jays lineup rocked Hamels and Darvish (and well, Lewis) it will be exciting to see how they make it rain on the depleted Indians staff, or, after an improbable comeback, the lackluster (to say the least) playoff resumes of Porcello and the $30 million (regular season) man Price. I'd still take Cleveland for the novelty of Shapkins vs. Mistake By the Lake (as well as Lowry vs. LeBron to avenge the NBA playoff loss).

Lots of vengeance here, Magpie. I'd go big with Richard II or even Hamlet.

Heh, Bannister struck me that way,too. His facial expressions on the bench made me picture him yelling," Get off my lawn!"

I think Gibbons will go with Stroman in Game 1 by keeping the rotation in the same order (Stroman-Estrada-Happ-Sanchez). He seems to have a lot of faith in Stroman, and after the WC game, he probably wants to get him back out there.

The good thing about the Jays rotation is that the discrepancy between the four starters isn't significant, so they can really go with any order and it won't impact their ability to compete.

If the offense can keep their bats hot for another 2-3 weeks, then they have a shot. That's really the key.

The perspective Martin and Bautista have on the 4 days rest is colored by their own physical situations, no doubt. Martin is the tired C at the end of a long season who is very clearly beaten up; He's slow on the basepaths and has one XBH in 3 weeks, and can very clearly use the rest. Bautista, on the other hand, missed 1/3 of the season with injuries, and looks like he's just starting to get back into the groove of things. I disagree with Jose and believe that the best thing for the Jays would be for the other ALDS to go 5 games, forcing BOS and CLE to play Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday before opening the ALCS on Friday.

If you'd like a full replay of Encarnacion's slide at 2nd, I posted a video of the final play, and you can clearly see Eddie going very cleanly into second. In the 5th inning Eddie was just trying to break up Bautista's double play and his slide came in high and late on Odor, but it looked like it was just a bad slide as opposed to a dirty slide.

https://twitter.com/NorthYorkJays/status/785345606663503873

I would stay on rotation also (Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Sanchez).  None of them can get too disgruntled about that.

Good EE slide video 92-93.

Buck had a good point today that it could be matchup dependant. If the Sox come back and win it I think they want to arrange it to not have Estrada pitch in Boston where he struggles. Sanchez likely will not go to 3 or 4th in the order no matter what. I could see it being Boston for example and them doing Happ, Stroman, Estrada, Sanchez.

Bannister was grasping at straws with a review there. The rules are that you you must slide to the bag and stay on the bag. You cannot make contact with the fielder before hitting the ground while sliding and your slide must take you to the bag.
Now, the fielder must touch the bag and get out of the way of the runner, but if he can't that's fine. That's how you break double-plays now.

"....how can one not be overjoyed that the series ended in 3...."

Totally agree.  And the rest days will definitely be a huge benefit to Donaldson, Osuna, Martin, Bautista, Grilli, Biagini etc.   I'm just saying that the four days of inaction could also have risks.  Maybe not enough to outweigh the benefits, but worth considering.  Not sure if a simulated game is a solution, but maybe it would help to address the problem, as Bautista said.

Way to gut one out! I watched all of the first 2 innings, then just the Jays' at bats the rest of the way (watched it a few hours later, so I could jump around).

The one thing that struck me as interesting. If I understood correctly from the TBS guys, Jeffress, Bush and Dyson are 3 of the Ranger's best relief pitchers (maybe Kela in there? No idea). All 3 were at one time property of the Blue Jays.. Seems like we do sometimes give up too early on players, just like every other team.. If we had those 3 to add to our bullpen for next year and dump 3 not-as-great pitchers, I think rotation + bullpen is 100% set, and we ONLY have to worry about 2-3 good bats in the off-season.

To add to the good news I have it on what I think is pretty good authority that the Jays' FO has recalibrated their "window" and thus desire to re-sign our FAs due to the emergence of Sanchez and much brighter outlook for happ/estrada giving us a legit contending rotation going forward.

The main point with Cleveland is that Carrasco is gone for the year and Salazar is a big maybe.
Bauer and Tomlin are not as intimidating. Especially if they go on short rest.

Sanchez gave us a Price imitation, so given his pitch count limitation, I would pull him between innings next time.
It's easy to try to squeeze another out or two and end up having to play extra innings instead.

Stroman career ERA: Home 3.49, Away 4.44
Although not great on 6+ days of rest.

No matter how many days of rest, I prefer facing Cleveland.
I've seen enough Ortiz tributes by now.

I don't know about windows, but it's pretty obvious that keeping EE and possibly Bautista would keep the large crowds at RC for another year, maybe two.

Best sign in the crowd: "I'd rather be punched in May than knocked out in October."

I agree with SK and steve that gibby will just stay on rotation and go with stroman in game 1. especially because he in no way sees stroman as a lesser option.

i have mixed feelings about the break - the downtime last year after clinching the division kind of messed us up and put us behind the 8 ball when the playoffs started. that could happen again. but at least this year we already have a well played series under our belts so that should help. i agree with joey that hopefully the indians clinch today to make it moot.

though maybe it would better for them to go 5gms and burn kluber inf game 5 now that i think about it.

Yup, I'm all about burning Kluber again. He's the only guy on that team that really scares me.

Looks like Liriano is going to be back for the ALCS. Word on Travis is still uncertain. Starting to concern me that he can't stay healthy.

I saw on Rotoworld that Benoit's recovery is going slowly. He's still on crutches and is very unlikely to be available for the ALCS, quite possibly out for the World Series. They need Liriano.

Also saw on Rotoworld just now that Boston is thinking of not using Price for game 5, if it goes that far, even though he'd be on normal 4 days rest due to yesterday's rain out. They're thinking of using Rodriguez instead, due to Price's ineffectiveness in game 2. Not exactly what you want for $217 million.

Why are they starting Bucholtz instead of Rodriguez for game 3?

217 million for a playoff reliever. Not that we didn't see the Jays use him that way last year. Optimal use of an asset I guess. This guy is pretty good at getting us to the playoffs, but when he gets there he's only good for mopup duty!

Farrell trying to channel 2013? Clay was serviceable over 4 playoff starts, as he is wont to be.

That's all I got.

I don't think Gibbons can go wrong in setting up the rotation for the ALCS.  Given how his starters have thrown over the last 10 games (and Sanchez' innings limitations), there's not a whole lot to choose between them right now.  I'd anticipate that he would go Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Sanchez just to keep the line moving as it has been.  You could certainly justify going Estrada, Happ, Sanchez, Stroman (in which case you might expect Stroman to get an inning of relief work in Game 1).  Stroman has pitched at almost exactly his career norms over his last 10 starts, but just a little better in all departments- with his ERA more than 1/2 a run less. 

Six down, eight to go.  Last night's game was memorable and for me, more satisfying than the conclusion to last year's ALDS.

Bannister was grasping at straws with a review there.

It was obviously a good slide. Banister said he was blocked out and couldn't see the play at second. Being aware of the play two weeks ago where Cincinnati didn't call for the review on a game-ending play quickly enough, and lost the game, he was taking no chances.

Nice to see their big trade deadline acquisition suck too. Oops for buying damaged goods I guess.

"Why are they starting Bucholtz instead of Rodriguez for game 3?"

what's the diff?

"Stroman has pitched at almost exactly his career norms over his last 10 starts, but just a little better in all departments- with his ERA more than 1/2 a run less. "

this is kinda how i know gibby is a secret saber guy - he hasn't and won't be caring about stro's ERA.

that being said, wouldn't be surprised to see estrada get the game 1 road assignment again. guy is unflappable.

David Ortiz, representing the tying run with two out in the eighth inning. Francona calls on Cody Allen.

Four pitch walk, Hanley Ramirez as the go-ahead run.

Ramirez with the RBI single but Allen gets Bogaerts to end the inning. 4-3 heading to the ninth.

Postseason Stats

1.2B Travis: 10pa, .111babip, -62wrc+
2.3B Donaldson: 19pa, .643babip, 255wrc+
3.1B Encarnacion: 19pa, .250babip, 257wrc+
4.RF Bautista: 18pa, .125babip, 144wrc+
5.C Martin: 18pa, .000babip, 8wrc+
6.SS Tulowitzki: 17pa, .357babip, 165wrc+
7.DH Saunders: 8pa, .500babip, 119wrc+
8.CF Pillar: 17pa, .077babip, 18wrc+
9.LF Carrera: 18pa, .455babip, 175wrc+

B.UT Smoak: 1pa, .000babip, -100wrc+
B.OF Upton: 8pa, .200babip, 217wrc+
B.IF Barney: 8pa, .000babip, -60wrc+
B.C Navarro: ---
B.PR Pompey: ---


SP Estrada: 8.1ip/gs, 25era-, 39fip-
SP Stroman: 6.0ip/gs, 70era-, 77fip-
SP Happ: 5.0ip/gs, 42era-, 40fip-
SP Sanchez: 5.2ip/gs, 223era-, 189fip-

RP Osuna: 5.0ip, 0era-, 17fip-
RP Biagini: 3.2ip, 0era-, 35fip-
RP Grilli: 2.0ip, 0era-, 26fip-
RP Liriano: 2.0ip, 210era-, 85fip-
RP Cecil: 0.2ip, 0era-, 284fip-
RP Tepera: 0.2ip, 0era-, 73fip-
RP Loup: ---
RP Feldman: ---
RP Barnes: ---

Toronto vs Cleveland

and the fearsome red sox "juggernaut"'s season comes down to TRAVIS SHAW batting in the 2 hole.

if that were the jays, it woulda been mvp Josh Donaldson..

maybe red sox weren't actually that good.

I guess the rest narrative will not be an issue. Both teams will have 3-4 days off before Game 1.

Always nice to see Boston get eliminated.

They're young and raw. I expect they'll get better with experience, (I definitely think the experience we got last year is helping us this year)

8.CF Pillar: 17pa, .077babip, 18wrc+

Pillar has a home run and some great ABs in this series.

9.LF Carrera: 18pa, .455babip, 175wrc+

Carrera keeps rolling and he always seems better when well rested.

B.OF Upton: 8pa, .200babip, 217wrc+

Upton has been great, except for one defensive mistake.

SP Estrada: 8.1ip/gs, 25era-, 39fip-

Estrada was pitching great last year as well.

The pen looks capable of doing 4 innings, even without Benoit.
Gibby has pushed Osuna further than I thought possible.

Can't wait for Friday.

Shapiromania.

I don’t think ortiz pedroia Hanley price porcello buchholz sucking had much to do with being young and raw.

and bogey and bradley and shaw haven't been good for months, so no surprise there.

"Upton has been great, except for one defensive mistake."


Gibbons has been using Upton in his ideal role lately. He's basically the Jays version of Chris Young. Play him against lefties, pinch run, 4th OF in case of need/injury, etc. Not surprised he's been contributing in that role. Between that and Carrera getting hot, it's been working pretty well.

Yeah you're right uo. You definitely should not rely on overpaid aging stars. You've convinced me.

and you've convinced me, Kasi, that young and raw players are no way to build a winner!

Upton basically is a version of Pompey who the manager trusts to hit and play defense (Pompey pretty much was just a pinch runner all playoff last year and this year).

Just 12 hitters have come up to the plate so far. All stats are extreme small sample size (4 games - the Jays had weekend series that were that long)
Wow hitters by OPS...
Encarnacion: 1.411
Donaldson: 1.304
Upton: 1.232 (who knew?)

Solid
Carrera: 1.007
Tulowitzki: 1.000
Bautista: .933
Saunders: .804

Hitting poorly...
Pillar: .551 - but sweet sweet defense
Martin: .417 - solid defense

Please stay away from the plate...
Travis: .200 - ouch.
Barney: .125 - so much for the backup
Smoak: .000 - 0 for 1 so it means nothing

Stayed away...
Navarro - has yet to come up to the plate. 587 OPS in regular season

Who else is there? OPS in regular season
Goins: 534
Thole: 474
Pompey: 0-2

Plus a few others who we all know won't get a shot.

The pitchers are a real crapshoot to evaluate as none have reached 9 innings yet in the playoffs while 2 have faced hitters but not reached 1 inning. Just 10 pitchers used. Sanchez has the most issues with 6 runs in 5 2/3 IP. 2 runs in 2 innings for Liriano. Stroman 2 runs in 6 IP, Estrada 1 run in 8 1/3 IP, Happ 1 run in 5 IP, while Osuna (5 IP), Biagini (3 2/3 IP), Grilli (2 IP) plus Cecil & Tepera (2/3 IP each).

Who will be there next round? I suspect all 10 of those guys will be. Others were there like Loup but were not used and I suspect others will be left on the bench too. Tougher this round as with 7 games (3 in a row in the middle) it is more important to have a solid pen.

With all the Indians' injuri s, the Jays seem like a better team but that doesn't mean a lot in the playoffs. (How often does the most talented team actually win?) This is why the goal is to build a team that makes the playoffs. Super excited for the series and I expect a lot of Jays fans in Cleveland. Pretty good time to be Shapiro.

The further the Jays go in the playoffs,the more I wonder if this changes their off-season narrative.Say they make the World Series, win or lose. Does the post season success, with added revenue and a virtual guarantee that fans will fill the stadium next year, change the front office's mind about signing EE and Bautista? Personally I have been back and forth on this all season and truly wouldn't want to be making the decisions. I don't want the Jays to end up like The Phillies of a few years ago with a bunch of highly-paid, ageing and declining stars. You don't have to look further than David Price to see that the most popular decision is not always the best one. I was with the solid majority that wanted to sign him,but I thought the front office was right not to hamstring the team by giving him the insane contract Boston did. In my heart I want both of them back for another run next year, but my head says unless it is for short term or reasonable money,then I don't think it's a really smart thing to do.

EE isn't that old. Tulo and Martin are the real aging stars and they are under contract for a few more years.
At some point, they'll need to add pop in the outfield, but right now, with the pitching they have, good defense is all they really need.

EE (32) is actually a month older than Russell Martin and a year older than Tulo. Even Josh Donaldson whom I usually think as being a lot younger will be 31 in Dec. You factor in Bautista who will be 36 in about a week, and consider if both he and EE were signed, you would have 5 batters who will be susceptible to injuries and declining production. While I agree that pitching and defence will take a team a long way,somehow the offence will have to be boosted sooner than later with younger players.

Upton basically is a version of Pompey who the manager trusts to hit and play defense (Pompey pretty much was just a pinch runner all playoff last year and this year).

Except Upton bats right and Pompey left.

Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcasm or not, but he was (by a full 0.5 WAR) the best catcher in baseball this year.

I wonder if that'll be it for Ferrell?

Or Farrell. Whatever. :P

EE (32) is actually a month older than Russell Martin and a year older than Tulo

Encarnacion will be turning 34 on January 7.  Which naturally leads to the song of the day. 

Martin and EE are 2yrs younger than Bautista and 2yrs older than Tulo and 3yrs older than Donaldson.

fwar per year starting at "peak" age of 27:

Bautista: 0.1, 0.8, 6.4, 8.1, 2.9, 4.3, 6.3, 4.4, 1.4
Encarnacion: 1.7, 0.7, 4.3, 4.0, 3.6, 4.5, 3.9
Martin: 2.0, 2.4, 2.0, 4.1, 4.9, 3.5, 1.9
Tulowitzki: 1.2, 5.3, 5.2, 2.3, 2.8
Donaldson: 7.6, 6.6, 8.7, 7.6

Man, those Donaldson numbers...

So with Liriano back on Saturday, does that mean we can put Feldman on the roster for Game 1 (or Barnes, even better), and then have Liriano replace said RP after Game 1?

Hopefully Liriano being back also means we can have Dalton Pompey back on the LCS roster:

Martin, Navarro
EE, Travis, Tulo, Donaldson, Barney, Smoak
Bautista, Pillar, Saunders, Carrera, Upton, Pompey
Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada
Osuna, Grilli, Cecil, Biagini, Loup, Tepera, Barnes/Liriano

I worry that they may want Goins instead of Pompey, pending on Travis's health.

There is no wrong answer here. :)

4 key 25 and unders:

SS F.Lindor (22): 684pa, .324babip, 112wrc+, 5.7awar/650pa
SP A.Sanchez (23): 6.4ip/gs, 70era-, 82fip-, 5.1awar/650pa

3B J.Ramirez (23): 618pa, .333babip, 122wrc+, 4.6awar/650pa
2B D.Travis (25): 432pa, .358babip, 109wrc+, 4.1awar/650pa

SP T.Bauer (25): 6.2ip/gs, 102era-, 94fip-, 2.6awar/32gs
SP M.Stroman (25): 6.4ip/gs, 102era-, 86fip-, 3.1awar/32gs

CF T.Naquin (25): 365pa, .411babip, 135wrc+, 3.0awar/650pa
RP R.Osuna (21): 74.0ip, 63era-, 74fip-, 1.9awar/650pa

Personally, I'm pretty "wow'd" by anyone 900 or higher.  Jays have had 4 starters at 1.000 or higher, and a 5th at .933.  Keep that up and the pitching just has to be solid.

I wonder if that'll be it for Ferrell?

I have a hard time seeing the manager fired of a team that went from last to first in its division.

Seems to be the thing Boston gets with Farrell - either last place or first.

Farrell stinks, but the red sox overachieved this year, not underachieved.

Hard to believe it was 10 years ago former Blue Jays pitcher Corey Lidle died in a plane crash. Here's a good read from Sweeny Murti about the Lidle family and how they're coping.

I have a hard time seeing the manager fired of a team that went from last to first in its division.

First to last. Then last to last. Then last to first. And swept in the playoffs. Sounds like AL Manager of the Year to me.

Let's hope for our sakes that Farrell stays on indefinitely.

I agree with uglyone, those Red Sox overachieved during the regular season. Expecting some regression next year. Last place may be a little too much to hope for though.

Assuming Liriano is healthy for Game 2, I'd take Feldman (or Barnes or Schultz) over Loup. Cleveland isn't prone to the platoon advantage with all of their switch-hitters and some of their lefties likely to be pulled if the Jays bring in a lefty (such as Chisenhall for Guyer).

If there isn't a lot of opportunity to mix and match, I'd be comfortable with two lefties in the pen. Even acknowledging Liriano probably won't be used as a lefty specialist, I'd be fine with just Cecil in short spots. Given three games in a row, I'd want someone capable of soaking up 2-3 innings, aside from Liriano, with the ability to do a short spot if needed. I'd have one of the righties - probably Feldman - over Loup.

Estrada going in game one.

understandable. he's iceman.

sounds like Sanchez gets game 4, and only one start in the ALCS.

Dang, I was hoping they'd go Estrada/Stroman/Sanchez/Happ

Sanchez going Game 4 is not surprising. They want to limit his innings while having him around to help the team in the post-season, so keeping him at 1 start per series accomplishes both. I'm comfortable with Estrada, Happ, and Stroman getting 2 starts each in a 7 game series.

Sanchez in game 4 seems smart - 1 start per series & available out of pen in game 7 if necessary - I expect same usage if the Jays get to WS.

Sounds like Travis is likely, but Liriano and Benoit are not.

Seems there's a chance Danny Salazar could be back for the ALCS

Barry Davis @SNBarryDavis
17s
Travis has deemed himself ready to play in the #ALCS. #BlueJays

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
50s
Francisco Liriano says he feels much better, now symptom-free. Says he'll be ready for activation Saturday #BlueJays




I mean that's good news, kinda. Not sure about this one.

Why kinda? Do you want Loup pitching? Or Schultz or Barnes? Given Grilli and Cecil's issues you need someone to back up Osuna and Biagini.

oh I want him back I just don't trust players self-diagnosing quick returns from concussions is all.

Cleveland's Progressive Field, formerly Jacobs Field, has been one of the best hitters' parks in baseball the last 2 seasons. Prior to that, it actually was a pretty strong pitchers' park. I'm not aware of any significant changes made to the park prior to the 2015 season which would account for the difference. Park factors do tend to shift somewhat from year to year, but the shift starting in 2015 is quite dramatic. It has been especially good for left handed power in 2015/16, and the Indians run out a lineup with a lot of lefty hitters, including switch hitters. The 19 foot high fence in left field detracts from right handed power hitters somewhat, so the field is not as friendly to the Blue Jays. The Indians scored 127 more runs at home than on the road this year, but their opponents only scored 18 more, leading to a great home record of 53 - 28.

Two of their switch hitters, Lindor and Ramirez, are pretty much equal from both sides of the plate. Crisp hits much better left handed, so he plays against righties, along with Naquin, a left handed batter who hits very poorly against lefties. Against lefties, those 2 sit, and right handed batters Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer take over in the outfield. They both hit lefties much better than righties, so make for reasonable platoon players. The other switch hitter, Santana, is interesting. Over his career, he has shown much more power batting left handed, but has a low batting average. Hitting right handed, he hits for a good average, but loses much of his power. Kipnis is a lefty hitter, and has shown a significant drop off vs lefties over his career.

something i never knew - Jerry never ever mentions cleveland's team name. ever.

pretty cool imo.

uglyone - agreed. I avoid the team name for Cleveland as much as I can too. That team has the most racist logo around (not talking about the C) and would love to see a big protest before every game they play with people holding up signs asking if the Cleveland Negros with an image like http://i.imgur.com/UocvtlW.jpg is acceptable?

Personally, I'd really like to see a backup infielder. Is Danny Barnes even going to pitch in the playoffs? If so, why is Feldman on the roster?

Estrada Happ and than Stroman, with Sanchez going into the bull pen.

Biagini, Sanchez,Grilli, and Osuna.
Loup and Liarano LHP specialists.

Makes more sense to me, and Sanchez innings are controlled through the WS.

"....I just don't trust players self-diagnosing quick returns from concussions...."

There are extensive protocols, assessments and reporting requirements, by the team and the league, in any concussion case.   It seems that these cases are reviewed very carefully these days, and there are stringent rules about medical evaluations, which are then reviewed by the team and the league. I don't think we need to worry that Liriano is the only one who is doing the diagnosis. 

It is Atkins and Gibbons, not just Liriano, who seem to be optimistic about Liriano's return for the second game of the ALCS.  But despite everyone's optimism, I don't think it will be decided until just before his potential return.

EE (32) is actually a month older than Russell Martin and a year older than Tulo. Even Josh Donaldson whom I usually think as being a lot younger will be 31 in Dec. You factor in Bautista who will be 36 in about a week, and consider if both he and EE were signed, you would have 5 batters who will be susceptible to injuries and declining production. While I agree that pitching and defence will take a team a long way,somehow the offence will have to be boosted sooner than later with younger players.

Here's a good article on aging:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/

The key point:

The more important variable in a player's expected future production is that player's estimated production for the upcoming season, not his age in that season.

Basically, as long as the player is over the hill, we should look at his WAR, not his age.
EE 3.7, Tulo 3.3, Martin 1.7.

Also, a DH might not decline as fast because he's not losing any value on defense.
Just look at Ortiz.

Seems there's a chance Danny Salazar could be back for the ALCS

In the pen. They'll still go with a 3 man rotation. If the Jays can grind through the starting pitchers like they usually do, the Cleveland bullpen could get thin eventually.

BTW, Upton has 2 homeruns off Miller.

With the demise of the Giants, the remaining team with the most recent World Series win would be... the Toronto Blue Jays.

I actually heard Jerry Howarth on the radio say "Indians" once this year (which surprised me).  But it was in a phrase like "red Indians written on the front of the uniform" (something like that).

I've listened to the radio broadcasts for decades and Howarth's form of protest has never bothered me.  Normally I haven't even noticed it, just remembered to listen for it later in the game.  "The Cleveland club."

He hasn't imposed his approach on others (Siddall and Wilner both say Indians).

just remembered to listen for it later in the game. "The Cleveland club."

Similarly, you'll notice that a number of broadcasters referring to the football team simply as Washington, intentionally avoiding the use of Redskins. It will be obvious in phrases like "the Cowboys hosted Washington".

Toronto - Cleveland

Hitter WAR = avg of fwar and bwar per 650pa

2B Travis (25): 432pa, .358babip, 109wrc+, 4.0war
DH Santana (30): 688pa, .258babip, 132wrc+, 3.2war

3B Donaldson (30): 700pa, .300babip, 155wrc+, 7.0war
2B Kipnis (29): 688pa, .324babip, 117wrc+, 4.2war

1B En'cion (33): 702pa, .270babip, 134wrc+, 3.5war
SS Lindor (22): 684pa, .324babip, 112wrc+, 5.7war

DH Bautista (35): 517pa, .255babip, 122wrc+, 1.6war
1B Napoli (34): 645pa, .296babip, 113wrc+, 1.1war

C Martin (33): 535pa, .291babip, 99wrc+, 2.2war
3B Ramirez (23): 618pa, .333babip, 122wrc+, 4.5war

SS Tulowitzki (31): 544pa, .272babip, 102wrc+, 3.6war
RF Chisenhall (27): 418pa, .328babip, 103wrc+, 2.0war

RF Saunders (29): 558pa, .321babip, 117wrc+, 1.6war
CF Naquin (25): 365pa, .411babip, 135wrc+, 2.9war

LF Upton (31): 539pa, .300babip, 84wrc+, 1.5war
LF Crisp (36): 498pa, .252babip, 90wrc+, 0.0war

CF Pillar (27): 584pa, .306babip, 80wrc+, 3.7war
C Perez (27): 184pa, .299babip, 58wrc+, 1.6war


UT Smoak (29): 341pa, .295babip, 90wrc+, -0.6war
UT Guyer (30): 345pa, .300babip, 122wrc+, 2.7war

OF Carrera (28): 310pa, .311babip, 85wrc+, 1.4war
OF Davis (35): 495pa, .299babip, 85wrc+, 1.6war

IF Barney (30): 306pa, .310babip, 86wrc+, 3.5war
IF Martinez (33): 106pa, .299babip, 51wrc+, -0.3war

C Navarro (32): 334pa, .248babip, 56wrc+, -1.2war
C Gomes (28): 264pa, .189babip, 33wrc+, -1.7war

OF Pompey (23): 2pa, .000babip, -100wrc+, -16.3war
C Gimenez (33): 155pa, .274babip, 60wrc+, -2.3war


Starters WAR = avg of fwar and ra9war per 32gs

SP Sanchez (23): 30gs, 6.4ip/gs, 70era-, 82fip-, 88xfip-, 5.1war
SP Kluber (30): 32gs, 6.7ip/gs, 73era-, 76fip-, 82xfip-, 5.4war

SP Happ (33): 32gs, 6.1ip/gs, 74era-, 92fip-, 98xfip-, 4.3war
SP Bauer (25): 28gs, 6.2ip/gs, 102era-, 94fip-, 96fip-, 2.6war

SP Estrada (32): 29gs, 6.1ip/gs, 81era-, 96fip-, 109xfip-, 3.9war
SP Tomlin (31): 29gs, 6.0ip/gs, 104era-, 115fip-, 97xfip-, 1.3war

SP Stroman (25): 32gs, 6.4ip/gs, 102era-, 86fip-, 80xfip-, 3.1war
SP Salazar* (26): 25gs, 5.5ip/gs, 91era-, 87fip-, 88xfip-, 3.3war


Relievers WAR = avg of fwar and ra9war per 65ip

RP Osuna (21): 72gms, 74.0ip, 63era-, 74fip-, 85xfip-, 1.8war
RP Miller (31): 70gms, 74.1ip, 34era-, 38fip-, 27xfip-, 2.8war

RP Biagini (26): 60gms, 67.2ip, 72era-, 68fip-, 87xfip-, 1.0war
RP Otero (31): 62gms, 70.2ip, 36era-, 54fip-, 67xfip-, 1.8war

RP Grilli (39): 67gms, 59.0ip, 97era-, 103fip-, 96xfip-, 0.3war
RP Allen (27): 67gms, 68.0ip, 59era-, 77fip-, 72xfip-, 1.3war

RP Cecil (29): 54gms, 36.2ip, 92era-, 84fip-, 67xfip-, 0.6war
RP McCallister (28): 51gms, 49.1ip, 73era-, 86fip-, 103xfip-, 0.9war

RP Tepera (27): 20gms, 18.1ip, 69era-, 86fip-, 100xfip-, 0.4war
RP Shaw (28): 75gms, 66.2ip, 76era-, 92fip-, 84xfip-, 0.7war

RP Feldman (33): 35gms, 52.1ip, 98era-, 93fip-, 86xfip-, 0.3war
RP Manship (31): 53gms, 43.1ip, 73era-, 120fip-, 113xfip-, 0.0war

RP Liriano (32): 2gms, 2.0ip, 210era-, 155fip-, 22xfip-, -1.6war
RP Clevinger* (25): 7gs, 12.0ip, 70era-, 48fip-, 81xfip-, 1.6war
RP Anderson* (25): 7gs, 16.1ip, 102era-, 94fip-, 81xfip, 0.4war



Notes:

- Salazar may be healthy, may not be, probably in bullpen if healthy - but I don’t know if they have a 4th SP otherwise. I guess clevinger or andersen would fill in if necessary
- Cleveland uses pretty much 2 (arguably even 3) full platoons in the OF

Another way to look at the teams is how Fangraphs' Rest-of-Season Depth Chart Projections (average of STEAMER and ZIPS projections) sees the two sets of players performing in the immediate future:

wRC+

1. 2B Travis 102 ------- DH Santana 124
2. 3B Donaldson 140 --- 2B Kipnis 107
3. 1B Encarnacion 133 - SS Lindor 103
4. RF Bautista 132 ----- 1B Napoli 108
5. SS Tulowitzki 106 --- 3B Ramirez 99
6. DH Saunders 106 ---- RF Chisenhall 97
7. C Martin 99 --------- CF Naquin 95
8. CF Pillar 87 ---------- LF Crisp 90
9. LF Upton 84 --------- C Perez 72

B. UT Smoak 93 -------- UT Guyer 109
B. OF Carrera 78 ------- OF Davis 82
B. IF Barney 71 -------- IF Martinez 60
B. C Navarro 78 -------- C Gomes 76
B. OF Pompey 81 ------ C Gimenez 67


ERA

SP Stroman 3.71 ------ Kluber 3.28
SP Sanchez 3.74 ------ Bauer 4.20
SP Estrada 3.99 ------- Tomlin 4.48
SP Happ 4.09 --------- Anderson 4.35 / Clevinger 4.80

RP Osuna 2.97 -------- Miller 1.80
RP Cecil 3.06 ---------- Allen 2.99
RP Grilli 3.56 ----------- Otero 3.35
RP Loup 3.56 ---------- Shaw 3.70
RP Biagini 3.70 -------- McAllister 3.75
RP Tepera 3.89 -------- Manship 4.20
RP Liriano 3.99 --------- Anderson 4.35 / Salazar
RP Feldman 4.21 ------- Clevinger 4.80 / Salazar

Lots of stats, uglyone, but what's your conclusion?   You've studied the numbers, so I'd love to read your analysis of them and how we should interpret them and what conclusion to reach from them.

FWIW, ugly, I concur in CF's exasperation with these lists of stats -- but no analysis.  What are they evidence of exactly?  It's not crystal clear to all of us.  Thanks.

well, they're more for reference. Just to take a look at who is on each roster and what they've done this year.

But my conclusions would probably be that the general narrative of the two teams is mostly correct at the moment:

- Jays have the more potent offense, though the indians have a solid one as well.
- The Jays have a very large advantage in SP in general - but Kluber is the best on either team, and if he's used 3 times in the series he could make the difference up all by himself.
- The Indians bullpen is a big advantage for them, and they have a manager who knows how to exploit it.
- which brings up the manager factor - the Indians have the kind of roster that Tito can exploit quite well with aggressive use of his RP and platoons at the bottom of his order.


In general, imo the Jays really have to take advantage of the non-Kluber SP, or else they can get into some serious trouble. If they can get to Kluber, of course, then they have a chance of making this a very quick series.

(and I still wish we were the team that traded for Miller.)

Thanks, ugly, that's very interesting analysis.   And you're right, it's nice to have the stats as a reference source for us.  It's a good resource.  But I prefer to hear your thoughts too!

Cleveland actually scored more runs than the Jays did this season, but they do play half their games in an even better park for hitters than the RC. Which makes one tend to underestimate Cleveland's pitching, as if it didn't look pretty good already. Josh Tomlin and, especially, Trevor Bauer were both quite a bit better than Marcus Stroman in 2016, for example. Meanwhile, Toronto's planning to use their best starter once and Cleveland may use Kluber three times.

Thanks for the positive response, ugly.  Your comments complement the lists admirably.  I like it.

Yeah, I'm a tad apprehensive about this coming series.  I wish we had Benoit healthy. 

Tito says no salazar, game 4 will be a clevinger-led bullpen game, so no short rest for kluber and he only goes twice this series.

Magpie i can't agree with that stroman/bauer/tomlin claim.

The era- i posted adjusts for park and competition and shows them all very similar (102/102/104), but stroman did that while going deeper into his starts, and with far better underlying numbers.

The loss of  Carasco and Salazar is a big break for the Jays.  Kluber is the best starter on either team but I'll take our rotation - Bauer is talented but at this point in his career, all of our regular starters are better, and if Josh Tomlin - he of the 9 ks in his last 25 2/3 IP - is your third starter, watch out.  Hopefully we can lay a beating on the pen if they do go with a bullpen start game 4. 

Sanchez to the pen leaves a hole for the 4th starter if we need one, but it certainly makes the gap between the two pens a lot less dramatic. 

No idea how the Clevelands managed to outscore us this year.  Napoli's 100 rbi season reminds me of Joe Carter at the end of his career - empty counting stats.  If you ignore him and their utter lack of backups, the rest of the IF is impressive.  It's going to be fun to watch Lindor play regularly. 

catcher is a genuine black hole for them - at least Perez looks like a quality backup with his glove.  Gomes / Giminez combined for negative 1.1 fWAR.  lucky for us Lucroy didn't want to play in the LCS.

Is it Friday yet?

I seem to recall that fangraphs articles about park factors showed that Cleveland was a very good offensive environment compared to Rogers centre.
But I haven't checked.

No idea how the Clevelands managed to outscore us this year.

By scoring 452 runs at Progressive Field is how, 5.58 per game being an awful lot of runs.

Cleveland was a very good offensive environment compared to Rogers centre.

Cleveland and their opponents scored 799 runs in Cleveland, 654 runs in road games, a factor of 1.22; Toronto and opposition scored 764 runs at the Rogers Centre, 661 runs in road games, a factor of 1.15. Both nice places to hit, but Cleveland a fair bit better. Their park didn't seem to have all that much effect on HRs, but hits in general (doubles in particular) and walks increased by... a Magnitude! And strikeouts way down. Very, very good visibility?

Here’s something to read while we wait for Friday’s game.  Tyler Kepner writes about Mark Shapiro in the New York Times. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/sports/baseball/cleveland-indians-a-school-for-executives-face-mark-shapiro-a-top-alumnus.html

wow, I had no idea that progressive field was such a hitter's park.  That does indeed make the Indians pitching look that much better.  It also makes that lineup seem pretty weak in the bottom half. 

Dewey, tried your link but it doesn't seem to be correct?

again, all of the numbers I used are park-factor adjusted.

Kluber has never started a game on 3 days rest in his mlb career. It would be unlikely to work if they tried it, IMO. If they are going with basically a bullpen game in game 4, it would be great to get to Tomlin early in game 3 and force the bullpen to do a lot of work in game 3.

As I wrote in my post yesterday on this thread, the park effects in Cleveland changed dramatically 2 years ago. Good pitchers' park until 2015 when something changed in a big way. The last 2 years, it's been a real hitters' park, especially for lefties. Cleveland saw a huge jump in their offense at home, the visitors, not much.

The Jays played some miserable games in Cleveland. And, of course, there was the Canada Day game, which was mostly the Jays vs the home plate umpire.

All the Cleveland starters are right handed which would play against the Jays' lineup, but Bauer and Tomlin have reverse splits. They may have a hitter's ballpark, but they don't hit as many homeruns as Baltimore, Boston or Texas, so good pitching and defense will be key. Their park is somewhat LHB friendly with a 19 foot wall in left, but Upton hit homers in both losses there and should be brought to face Miller. Their pen will get tired and there will be no rain delay to save them this time.
They  play match ups with switch hitters and platoons. That would make Cecil, Loup and Liriano very important in this series which is not really a good thing.

Andrew Miller could be a big pain in the neck. I can see him going 10 innings in a 7-game series.

On a per-inning basis, is there a better pitcher in baseball right now? His K/BB ratio was 123/9 (46/2 after the trade).

Dewey, tried your link but it doesn't seem to be correct?

The link is broken somehow, but the address is correct. Copying and pasting into my browser's address bar is what worked for me. It's definitely worth a read.

Seems like my sources actually might be legit. Heyman saying the jays are prepping a longterm deal for EE: http://www.thescore.com/news/1116244

Estrada has reverse splits (4 seamer, changeup, curve will do that) but all the other Blue Jays starters don't do as well against left bats. They also have a catcher that's good at throwing up runners, but as we've seen, against the Blue Jays, blocking balls in the dirt is more important.

Miller has been outstanding for 3 years running- about 200 innings worth.  He's a great pitcher no matter how you slice it, even allowing for the usual role adjustments.

In a 2-3-2 playoff series (like this one), I don't think 10 innings for a reliever is realistic, unless you have him go longer per outing than he has in the rest of his relieving career.  I cannot see 5 2 inning outings, but 3 outings of 3-4 innings in Games 1, 4 and 7 would be possible.  He has not worked in anything like that role over his relief career, and I doubt that he would be anywhere near as effective (and you lose the ability to leverage him if you are stuck with Games 1, 4 and 7).

I imagine that the Indians are targeting 6-8 innings with most of them high game-leverage innings. 

Magpie, some questions answer themselves in time.  Begone, Shakespeare and make way for the newest Nobel laureate. The times...

I think in general Francona is comfortable letting Miller go once through the order. I would be too. So I don’t think there's any question that Tito would use him for longer outings than he's been used for in his relief career so far.

but yeah - how many 40+ pitch outings can one arm take in a playoff series?

In a 2-3-2 playoff series

Right, forgot about that. My brain is locked into days gone by, 2-2-1-1-1, with many more off-days.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/torontos-advantage-against-cleveland/

great little article here about how Cleveland has built their offense on hitting breaking balls this year, but struggled badly against fastballs.

noting that the Jays' rotation is primarily a fastball-based rotation.

The Jays have hit Kluber better than any other club, taking him deep into counts and drawing more walks than any other club, and hitting lots of doubles.  They will probably try to do the same thing to him as they did to Hamels.  Disciplined aggression. 

Sorry that NYT link doesn’t work (I simply copied it from the page I was
reading and pasted it here).  But if it works by copying and pasting it
into your browser, as Parker says, do that.  Or simply visit the NY
Times site; go to Sports, and look up the Kepner article.  It might
change some minds about Shapiro:  it certainly adjusted mine
considerably. 

Yeah, that was a great article, Dewey. Thanks for sharing.

"...Sanchez to the pen..."

Wait, have the Jays said that they might use Sanchez in the pen in this series?  Did I miss a comment by Gibbons or Atkins about this?  If they did this, who would pitch the 4th game?

It's actually an interesting idea -- have Liriano maybe pitch the 4th game, while using Sanchez as a shut-down reliever who could be available in almost every game.  But it would seem like a radical shift of roles at this late stage.

CF I think the point was that if they pitched him in game 4 he would be available out of the pen in a possible game 7. It seems regardless they only plan to start him once this series.

Great article from the NY Times, Dewey. The high quality of research and writing makes one smirk at the less-than-stellar competency at the Toronto dailies (and that the writers who do provide similar depth, such as Lott for baseball and Koreen for basketball, are turfed. Sad).

The piece also casts a somewhat negative light on AA by association. I know he's still a golden boy around these parts due to the Jays' first playoffs in 22 years, but Shapiro comes across as a man who truly values consensus and enables his executives to grow in their careers, as the extensive Cleveland feeder system so obviously demonstrates.

And now AA is chilling in Los Angeles, not only earning a lot less but also rejecting GM-level opportunities because that would uproot his family a 3rd time in 2 years. We'll never know the full story of what went down in Rogers offices in late 2015, but it seems like a real missed opportunity (on AAs part, mostly) to succeed at Shapiro's side as Atkins is doing today, instead of going his own way once his benefactor transitioned to President Emeritus.

He did turn down an interview for the Diamondbacks GM position, according to rumor. So there's that. :)

Begone, Shakespeare and make way for the newest Nobel laureate.

I've been fretting more or less non-stop over this very issue!

On the one hand - never mess with a winning streak. On the other hand - is there anything else from Henry V I'd like to use? Not really.

I was actually thinking of using some memorable quotes from or about some famous native Americans. Fresh karma, fresh mojo, and emphasizing the fact that Chief Wahoo doesn't get to party. No way. Not on our watch.

Here's Dewey's NY Times link. This will work - I have a secret technique!

On the one hand - never mess with a winning streak

Concur with your refusal to adhere to the maxim.  Crash had a conflict of interest.