Once more unto the breach...
Old men forget; yea, all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words...
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
The 2016 Texas Rangers, as you probably know, have had a strange year. They scored 765 runs this season. That was fourth best in the AL, just six more than Toronto. Meanwhile they allowed 757 runs, and only two AL teams - Oakland and Minnesota, whose players are all preparing for hunting or fishing season - allowed more. And no AL team allowed fewer runs than the Toronto Blue Jays, who gave up just (oh, number of ill import!) 666. The Rangers do play in what has lately been the best hitter's park in the league. There were 816 runs scored at Globe Life Park in Arlington and just 706 scored in the Rangers' road games. And man, it's irritating to always have to look up whatever it is they call a ballpark these days.
But anyway - one team scored 765 and allowed 757. The other team scored 759 and allowed 666. So naturally it was that first team that won 95 games, more than any other team in the AL, and cruised to a comfortable division title nine games ahead of their closest competitor. While the second team had to win twice on the road against the division champs on the final weekend and then prevail in a single game playoff just to get here.
Baseball, eh. Go figure.
Now we all know why this happened - it was all about the one-run games. Texas played 47 of them this season, Toronto played 46. But the Rangers went 36-11 in those games - a historically great figure - while the Blue Jays went 21-25.
As you all know, I've been obsessing over one-run games since being subjected to that traumatic experience otherwise known as the 2005 Toronto Blue Jays. And this year, I actually made some progress. There is a predictable relationship between the quality of a team and its record in one-run games. It's not entirely a coin flip - the better teams will have better records in those games. However it takes at least 1000 games for those relationships to assert themselves. You must admit - that's one great, big, enormous However.
It means that a single season of one-run games is a tiny, tiny sample, in exactly the same way that 10 plate appearances is a tiny, tiny sample. Yup - a team's record in one-run games generally tells us less about that team than a hitter's record against an individual pitcher tells us about him. But there ya go - Josh Thole really did have an OPS of 1.667 against Drew Smyly this year and Texas really did win 36 of their 47 one-run games.
The predictable relationship that lets us identify a team's expected record in one run games says that in 40% of those games, assume a coin flip with a 50/50 result. We'll round this off, and both teams start out with 9-9 records. And in the rest of the one-run games, use the team's Pythagorean expectation derived from the rest of their games.
Like this - in their other 115 games, the Rangers scored 584 runs and allowed 601 - that would lead you to expect a .493 winning percentage. Apply that to the 29 remaining one-run games and you get 14-15, for an overall Expected Record of 23-24 in one-run games.
Do the same thing for Toronto and we get an Expected Record of 24-22. So Toronto underachieved by 3 wins, while Texas overachieved by a phenomenal 13 wins. Texas would then have an 82-80 record, which exactly matches their Pythagorean expectation using the classic formula that I use and whatever it is baseball-reference.com uses. Toronto would have finished 92-70 by my reckoning (91-71 according to bb-ref.)
You may recollect that I also devised four broad classification categories for types of one-run decisions. This is because I clearly have way too much free time on my hands, but that's neither here nor there. They were:
1. Walkoffs (we all know what a walkoff win - or loss - looks like.)
2. Rallies (the winning team scores after the seventh inning to create the one-run decision)
3. Almost Rallies (the losing team scores after the seventh inning to create the one-run score)
4. Nothing (A one-run lead going into the seventh inning, no subsequent scoring by anyone.)
So. How did these two teams do in the various types of one-run games?
1. Walkoffs. Texas had 8 Wins, 5 Losses. Toronto was 4-7.
2. Rallies. Texas rallied to win 13 times, their opponents rallied to win just once. Toronto rallied to win 8 times, but their opponents rallied to win 15 times. Whoa.
3. Almost Rallies. Texas rallies fell short 3 times, their opponents fells short just 2 times. Toronto rallied and fell short 8 times, their opponents just 1 time.
4. Nothing. Texas had 12 Wins and 3 Losses when nothing happened from the seventh inning on. Toronto had 1 such win, 2 such losses.
What just leaps out at you here are all the times Toronto lost because they gave up runs late in the game - 15 times, compared to just 1 time for Texas. And all the times Texas won - 12 times - when nothing at all happened in the final three innings.
Kind of makes you think the Texas bullpen was far, far better. Doesn't it?
Toronto relief pitchers worked the fewest innings of any bullpen crew in the major leagues. Was this because they weren't all that good? Maybe early on, but it was mostly because the Toronto starting pitchers were so very good. Toronto relievers went 20-32 with a 4.11 ERA. No bullpen in the AL lost more games, Only three had a worse ERA. And strangely enough, one of those bullpens belonged to - you guessed it - the Texas Rangers, whose bullpen crew had a rather unsightly 4.40 ERA. That was better than Minnesota, but only Minnesota. They did manage a 41-20 WL record. Go figure.
Texas relievers don't strike that many people out. They fanned 7.34 per 9, which was ahead of the Angels and no one else. They give up hits - AL teams batted .261 against the Texas bullpen, second highest BAVG against a relief crew in the league (Minnesota, at .274.)
Meanwhile, Toronto relievers fanned 9.16 per 9 (above average), walked just 2.64 per 9 (second best in the league, and allowed the opposition to hit .254 (a little below average.)
The lesson here, Bey?
Nobody knows anything.
On to the game!
At last look (i.e., while I was typing) neither team had announced their ALDS roster. We do know the pitching matchups for the first two games: Estrada-Hamels followed by Happ-Darvish. Aaron Sanchez will get Game 3, Marcus Stroman Game 4 (if necessary) while the Rangers either haven't thought that far ahead or are simply keeping it to themselves. I would expect Colby Lewis and Martin Perez, but Banister probably wants the option of bringing Hamels and Darvish back on short rest if things do not go as well as he's hoping.
The Rangers have made some changes. Not in the infield, which we all remember from last year - Moreland, Odor, Andrus, Beltre. But it's been a whole new outfield for most of the year, with a rookie in RF (Nomar Mazara), a converted shortstop in CF (Ian Desmond, and did that ever work out well) and a 17th round pick (Ryan Rua) in LF. However Shin-Soo Choo, who missed more than 100 games with assorted injuries this year, returned for the final weekend and will probably be in the lineup.
The Rangers made two very big upgrades at the deadline, acquiring Jonathan Lucroy to take over from Robinson Chirinos behind the plate, and filling the DH spot vacated by Prince Fielder with none other than Carlos Beltran. Beltran hit .295/.337/.513 this season, with 29 HR and 93 RBI. He got off to a slow start in Texas, but since August 27 he's hit .333/.383/.541 and he's also got a pretty impressive post-season resume (.332/.441/.674), highlighted by his legendary work with the 2004 Astros, one of the greatest - if not the greatest - post-season hitting performances of all time. Scares the crap out of me just thinking about it, even if it was twelve years ago. As you may know, Beltran and Jose Bautista are locked in a duel for the third spot behind Gehrig and Ruth for all-time best post-season OPS.
We all remember Cole Hamels from last year's ALDS. He pitched two good games against the Jays and was betrayed by his defence both times - it was Hamels who took that 3-2 lead into the fateful seventh inning, before Elvis Andrus temporarily forgot how to play baseball, and Sam Dyson threw Jose Bautista a sinker that didn't sink. Hamels is 7-5, 3.03 in 15 post-season starts, was the MVP of the 2008 World Series, and was in the discussion for this year's AL Cy Young before going off the rails briefly as August turned to September. He still finished up 15-5, 3.32 in 32 starts, fanned exactly 200 in 200.2 IP and gave his team an ERA+ of 136. The guy's really good. And so is Yu Darvish, who starts tomorrow. I'd be really happy to split these two games in Arlington.
Old men forget; yea, all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words...
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
The 2016 Texas Rangers, as you probably know, have had a strange year. They scored 765 runs this season. That was fourth best in the AL, just six more than Toronto. Meanwhile they allowed 757 runs, and only two AL teams - Oakland and Minnesota, whose players are all preparing for hunting or fishing season - allowed more. And no AL team allowed fewer runs than the Toronto Blue Jays, who gave up just (oh, number of ill import!) 666. The Rangers do play in what has lately been the best hitter's park in the league. There were 816 runs scored at Globe Life Park in Arlington and just 706 scored in the Rangers' road games. And man, it's irritating to always have to look up whatever it is they call a ballpark these days.
But anyway - one team scored 765 and allowed 757. The other team scored 759 and allowed 666. So naturally it was that first team that won 95 games, more than any other team in the AL, and cruised to a comfortable division title nine games ahead of their closest competitor. While the second team had to win twice on the road against the division champs on the final weekend and then prevail in a single game playoff just to get here.
Baseball, eh. Go figure.
Now we all know why this happened - it was all about the one-run games. Texas played 47 of them this season, Toronto played 46. But the Rangers went 36-11 in those games - a historically great figure - while the Blue Jays went 21-25.
As you all know, I've been obsessing over one-run games since being subjected to that traumatic experience otherwise known as the 2005 Toronto Blue Jays. And this year, I actually made some progress. There is a predictable relationship between the quality of a team and its record in one-run games. It's not entirely a coin flip - the better teams will have better records in those games. However it takes at least 1000 games for those relationships to assert themselves. You must admit - that's one great, big, enormous However.
It means that a single season of one-run games is a tiny, tiny sample, in exactly the same way that 10 plate appearances is a tiny, tiny sample. Yup - a team's record in one-run games generally tells us less about that team than a hitter's record against an individual pitcher tells us about him. But there ya go - Josh Thole really did have an OPS of 1.667 against Drew Smyly this year and Texas really did win 36 of their 47 one-run games.
The predictable relationship that lets us identify a team's expected record in one run games says that in 40% of those games, assume a coin flip with a 50/50 result. We'll round this off, and both teams start out with 9-9 records. And in the rest of the one-run games, use the team's Pythagorean expectation derived from the rest of their games.
Like this - in their other 115 games, the Rangers scored 584 runs and allowed 601 - that would lead you to expect a .493 winning percentage. Apply that to the 29 remaining one-run games and you get 14-15, for an overall Expected Record of 23-24 in one-run games.
Do the same thing for Toronto and we get an Expected Record of 24-22. So Toronto underachieved by 3 wins, while Texas overachieved by a phenomenal 13 wins. Texas would then have an 82-80 record, which exactly matches their Pythagorean expectation using the classic formula that I use and whatever it is baseball-reference.com uses. Toronto would have finished 92-70 by my reckoning (91-71 according to bb-ref.)
You may recollect that I also devised four broad classification categories for types of one-run decisions. This is because I clearly have way too much free time on my hands, but that's neither here nor there. They were:
1. Walkoffs (we all know what a walkoff win - or loss - looks like.)
2. Rallies (the winning team scores after the seventh inning to create the one-run decision)
3. Almost Rallies (the losing team scores after the seventh inning to create the one-run score)
4. Nothing (A one-run lead going into the seventh inning, no subsequent scoring by anyone.)
So. How did these two teams do in the various types of one-run games?
1. Walkoffs. Texas had 8 Wins, 5 Losses. Toronto was 4-7.
2. Rallies. Texas rallied to win 13 times, their opponents rallied to win just once. Toronto rallied to win 8 times, but their opponents rallied to win 15 times. Whoa.
3. Almost Rallies. Texas rallies fell short 3 times, their opponents fells short just 2 times. Toronto rallied and fell short 8 times, their opponents just 1 time.
4. Nothing. Texas had 12 Wins and 3 Losses when nothing happened from the seventh inning on. Toronto had 1 such win, 2 such losses.
What just leaps out at you here are all the times Toronto lost because they gave up runs late in the game - 15 times, compared to just 1 time for Texas. And all the times Texas won - 12 times - when nothing at all happened in the final three innings.
Kind of makes you think the Texas bullpen was far, far better. Doesn't it?
Toronto relief pitchers worked the fewest innings of any bullpen crew in the major leagues. Was this because they weren't all that good? Maybe early on, but it was mostly because the Toronto starting pitchers were so very good. Toronto relievers went 20-32 with a 4.11 ERA. No bullpen in the AL lost more games, Only three had a worse ERA. And strangely enough, one of those bullpens belonged to - you guessed it - the Texas Rangers, whose bullpen crew had a rather unsightly 4.40 ERA. That was better than Minnesota, but only Minnesota. They did manage a 41-20 WL record. Go figure.
Texas relievers don't strike that many people out. They fanned 7.34 per 9, which was ahead of the Angels and no one else. They give up hits - AL teams batted .261 against the Texas bullpen, second highest BAVG against a relief crew in the league (Minnesota, at .274.)
Meanwhile, Toronto relievers fanned 9.16 per 9 (above average), walked just 2.64 per 9 (second best in the league, and allowed the opposition to hit .254 (a little below average.)
The lesson here, Bey?
Nobody knows anything.
On to the game!
At last look (i.e., while I was typing) neither team had announced their ALDS roster. We do know the pitching matchups for the first two games: Estrada-Hamels followed by Happ-Darvish. Aaron Sanchez will get Game 3, Marcus Stroman Game 4 (if necessary) while the Rangers either haven't thought that far ahead or are simply keeping it to themselves. I would expect Colby Lewis and Martin Perez, but Banister probably wants the option of bringing Hamels and Darvish back on short rest if things do not go as well as he's hoping.
The Rangers have made some changes. Not in the infield, which we all remember from last year - Moreland, Odor, Andrus, Beltre. But it's been a whole new outfield for most of the year, with a rookie in RF (Nomar Mazara), a converted shortstop in CF (Ian Desmond, and did that ever work out well) and a 17th round pick (Ryan Rua) in LF. However Shin-Soo Choo, who missed more than 100 games with assorted injuries this year, returned for the final weekend and will probably be in the lineup.
The Rangers made two very big upgrades at the deadline, acquiring Jonathan Lucroy to take over from Robinson Chirinos behind the plate, and filling the DH spot vacated by Prince Fielder with none other than Carlos Beltran. Beltran hit .295/.337/.513 this season, with 29 HR and 93 RBI. He got off to a slow start in Texas, but since August 27 he's hit .333/.383/.541 and he's also got a pretty impressive post-season resume (.332/.441/.674), highlighted by his legendary work with the 2004 Astros, one of the greatest - if not the greatest - post-season hitting performances of all time. Scares the crap out of me just thinking about it, even if it was twelve years ago. As you may know, Beltran and Jose Bautista are locked in a duel for the third spot behind Gehrig and Ruth for all-time best post-season OPS.
We all remember Cole Hamels from last year's ALDS. He pitched two good games against the Jays and was betrayed by his defence both times - it was Hamels who took that 3-2 lead into the fateful seventh inning, before Elvis Andrus temporarily forgot how to play baseball, and Sam Dyson threw Jose Bautista a sinker that didn't sink. Hamels is 7-5, 3.03 in 15 post-season starts, was the MVP of the 2008 World Series, and was in the discussion for this year's AL Cy Young before going off the rails briefly as August turned to September. He still finished up 15-5, 3.32 in 32 starts, fanned exactly 200 in 200.2 IP and gave his team an ERA+ of 136. The guy's really good. And so is Yu Darvish, who starts tomorrow. I'd be really happy to split these two games in Arlington.
