Is it too late to bring back Cito?

So given that we have the tiebreaker advantage against Detroit and Baltimore, does that mean that we get the wildcard spot if we're tied with them to end the year?

I'm not sure I buy into the narrative that Osuna is gassed. He's pitched 71 innings this year which is about what he did last year. I think he just hasn't been hitting his spots - lots of hittable pitches have been left up in the zone. He's been mediocre if not outright bad for a little while now (which I think also takes away from the "gassed" argument), and in my mind his mediocrity is correlated with the new "hitch" he seems to have added midseason. I wonder if focusing on that has distracted him from working on his delivery otherwise. Not to say that adding a hitch is a bad idea, but it might have been better to work on it in the offseason or spring training.

Grilli definitely seems gassed on the other hand. Hopefully they give someone else the chance at the 8th in this series.

Meaningful September baseball. Mighty hard to watch at times.

[Osuna's] pitched 71 innings this year which is about what he did last year.

And as you'll recall, he did not pitch all that well in September last year either (0-2, 6.00, 2 Blown Saves).

First inning, and the Jays are already getting beat. 1-0 Sox, a 34-pitch inning for Estrada, Bautistia potentially hurt, and a scoring opportunity squandered.

Oh, and Detroit is winning 3-0.

Tulowitzki could not possibly have been talking about the 2007 Rockies. They did not clinch early. They won 13 of their final 14 to force a one-game playoff - Game 163 - which they won.

If this was a hockey team, we'd be saying that they are looking forward to golf season. I'm not sure what these guys are looking forward to - hunting, maybe? Indoor soccer? - but it sure doesn't appear to be playoff baseball.

Jose, jose, jose, jose

I was just about to complain about all the first pitch swings. But holy huge, Batista!

Probably will need more than three runs in this one. Don't let up.

Bautista's career numbers at Fenway Park: .274/.367/.594, and that was his 24th HR in 64 games.

That was a high quality reverse jinx there. You're welcome, everyone!

Estrada is a wonderful competitor. Great focus and execution. The Jays are going to have to get 4 innings out of the 'pen, though.

Boy did Gibbons get lucky there. Warms up Loup, doesn't bring him in, presumably to get Estrada the win(?) and Ortiz hits one 109mph to the wall. Yikes. 4 big innings out of the pen to come.

Great PA here by Pillar. Might end up shortening Porcello's start tonight.

Nice play, Martin.

Martin. Not clutch. How'd they give Pedroia a hit there?

Nice block, Martin.

Biagini is pitching superbly, but his defence is letting him down.

Of note, Jays are 1-7 with RISP. It was Carrera's bunt. Terribly unlucky/bad baseball.

Season.

Cecil got beat with his second-best pitch.

They've thoroughly earned this collapse. Will make losing some key players in the off season easier.

Depressing

When do pitchers and catchers report?

That was a great Dave Stieb impression by Uehara on the ball going through his third baseman.

Huge AB for Donaldson here

At this point I just want the season to end.

Same. This is just too painful to watch. Make it stop.

They were three games up on a playoff spot with five to play. And were leading in the ninth inning, two outs away from from all but guaranteeing that first wild card.

And now it's looking they won't make it at all. Pretty sad.

Toronto might end up finishing behind Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, and Seattle.

So many ridiculous losses this month and early in the season.

Ownership has probably been stressing all season about how to justify slashing payroll this coming offseason, but now they have a gift wrapped excuse -- the need to shake up the team that frittered away the season.

Ownership has probably been stressing all season about how to justify slashing payroll this coming offseason

Probably. No doubt they were twirling their Snidely Whiplash evil moustaches while they plotted.

It must be interesting living in Cartoonland.

Not Navarro, for God's sake.

ComeByDeanChance, friendly wager on whether Opening Day payroll goes up or down from 2016 to 2017?

I like what Shapiro and Atkins have done overall, but obtaining Navarro almost seems like a deliberate attempt to sabotage the season, given Gibbons' inexplicable usage of him.

Navarro was a better option than Smoak, so I didn't mind seeing him up there. I'm getting pretty sick of caring though.

Same old September game:

Key defensive error
Bullpen loss
1-10 with RISP
Only scored in one inning

Only 2 games to go.  Would be sad to need to use Sanchez Sunday in a need to win game.

Mr. Tabler is on my TV telling me that Ortiz and Betts will get MVP votes if they do well in the playoffs. Honestly.

This loss means the Jays no longer control their destiny for the first wildcard, and in fact, Detroit can catch them for the 2nd WC even if they somehow win the next two.

ComeByDeanChance, friendly wager on whether Opening Day payroll goes up or down from 2016 to 2017?

I imagine whether it goes up or down will depend in the end on largely sound baseball business decisions based upon what's available in good trades. 'Evil Ownership' for example took on an extra 13 mil for Liriano next year at the deadline, in order to upgrade the farm system and obtain another starter to take innings off Sanchez. A much smarter move than when 'Evil Ownership' approved taking on a long bad contract at short to get rid of a short very bad one last year, with the team sacrificing talent no less in the exchange. Actually, I doubt 'Evil Ownership' paid much attention to the Liriano move at all, as I think they're quite happy to have a highly competent person in charge of the Blue Jays in Shapiro and will go with what he decides, much like they will go with what he does in the upgrades to the Dunedin facilities which, of course, they are no doubt plotting to undermine.

I can imagine the Blue Jays improving at second base and centerfield and taking on salary to do it. I wouldn't mind at all seeing changes at short and catcher, and given that the guys to be moved are the most expensive there are, it would of course be a salary reduction. At the same time, they have to sell a competitive team, so I don't think they'll be moving Bautista out to insert Pompey, who did nothing at AAA to warrant a starting job.

So whether the payroll goes up or down (and its extraordinary to me how concerned Blue Jay fans in particular are with payroll) I expect those decisions will be made on baseball business grounds, rather than 'ownership stressing to reduce payroll' They won't be taking on unintelligent 7 year deals for pitchers in their 30's, or giving up draft picks to sign guys in their mid-thirties to long term deals, and I'm happy for that.

So many ridiculous losses this month and early in the season.

They seem like quite different kinds of losses to me. At the beginning of the season we had bullpen failures. The carryover bullpen from last year other than Osuna was a calamity. The expected improvement from Storen never materialized. Plus the pen, in my view at least, wasn't handled overly well.

These losses on the other hand, seem to come from a weary and dreary team that can't score run and isn't particularly good defensively. They hit poorly with men on base because they hit poorly in general. The 4, 5, 6. 7 hitters tonight came in with batting averages of .232, 231, 251 and .220. The Blue Jays had one guy with a BA over .286 tonight. The Red Sox had 7. These two teams seem like different species.

It was disheartening to see what amounts now to an offensive outbreak, 3 runs in a game at Fenway, wasted when the pen couldn't hold the usual lead given over by the starters. But it's pretty sad when 3 runs in Fenway seems like an offensive outburst.

For those who've not seen the 'Heartbreak of the Last Sunday of the Season' show before, it goes the Jays need to win and everyone else lose, on the last Sunday of the season. That's where they'll be if they lose tomorrow. Hopefully JA can go longer than Marco and we'll not have to experience that feeling in the stomach.

Well said CbDC. The paranoia is a bit overboard here. Do you think a team that has made the FO moves they have in picking up guys like Cherington and others as well as picking up payroll at the deadline wants to go to a budget mentality? Sure Rogers has shown they're not going to compete financially with the Sox and Yankees but there is no sign they want to slash payroll.

If I'm looking at this right, the Jays won on July 4th to move into WC2. Since then, every day they've been in a playoff spot; either division lead, or one of the wild cards. It's all ending right at the finish line.

Well, on the half full side Osuna and Grilli should be rested enough to do well tomorrow. Donaldson only needs 1 RBI to reach 100. Travis seems to be fully recovered.

Jays are still up by 1/2 a game on Detroit and 1 1/2 on Seattle. So the Jays fate is still in their own hands with 2 games to go. In any year from 1994 to 2014 we'd have been jumping up and down with joy over this but after last year it is very frustrating as this team should've clinched a wild card a long time ago and been ahead of Boston going into this weekend for the division title.

If pre-season someone told you the Jays would only need 7 starters to get through the season, that Happ would win 20 and Sanchez would have a 3.06 ERA, that the Jays would acquire Liriano (with 2 prospects) for Hutchison and he'd have a 2.92 ERA over 8 starts (2 relief), that Estrada would have a 3.48 ERA you'd think the Jays would be running away with it. Mix in Osuna getting 35 saves, rule 5 guy Biagini having a 3.09 ERA, Benoit and Grilli gained mid-season for nothing and having 0.38 and 3.48 ERA's again, you'd be thinking something good is happening. Knowing they are 6th in ERA in the majors, #1 in the AL you'd be certain the Jays would be running away with it.

Sadly the offense dropped as much as pitching grew and the game is NOT 90% pitching.

Last off-season felt like it flew by since the Jays made a deep playoff run.

I have a feeling this off-season may feel like an eternity.

The September numbers are in. The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in runs scored in September, edging only the Marlins. They scored fewer runs than any other team in the American League in September.

Curse of Anthopoulos.

I hate this team.

Yup, AA sure cursed this team. I think it was an aging curse. Nasty one that is.

the FO moves they have in picking up guys like Cherington and others

What is your take on Sanders? Has there been a discussion about those moves?

I guess nobody on the roster got my email about going on vacation. Hence, no series thread from me. I watched the Baltimore collapse at 3:00 am my time, the only game I've seen since catching Saturday's game at the airport in Winnipeg. This is 1987 all over again. Still hoping for two things this weekend, the Jays winning and Mayo winning the All-Ireland final. Need to find a four leaf clover. The Jays need some luck of the Irish at this point.

Sadly the offense dropped as much as pitching grew and the game is NOT 90% pitching.

I'd argue that the defense as collapsed too, but I don't have any numbers.

Welcome to the show.
The great finale's almost here.
I thank you for coming, into my theater of fear.

This is 1987 all over again.

It's also a little like 1983 all over again - every day, some new and awful bullpen implosion - and my first reaction was to start planning The Report Card, assuming that it would be needed shortly. Then I remembered that the Jays' pitchers these final two days have gone 34-6 so far this season. So that thing that springs eternal is trying to rouse itself.

Nevertheless, it might not be a bad idea #2JB if you stepped up and gave us a new Series Thread. Change the Luck! As everyone knows, my Mojo has been... what's the word? Awful? Horrible? A crime against humanity?

Brett Cecil has made 20 of his 53 appearances when the Jays were already losing, and he's done just fine (1.35 ERA) in those games. You don't want to know how he's done when the score was tied. Or when the team was protecting a lead. You really don't.

The news gets worse: the Yankees are skipping Tanaka's last start of the season. I wonder whether, after the brawl in Toronto and the bad blood it engendered, New York is going out of its way to lend the O's a helping hand in the final series of the season.

Rogers green-lighted a trade to bring in a struggling starter with some $17M left on his contract in order for the Jays to replace Dickey next season and add two top 100 prospects into the system. Usually teams looking to shed payroll do not approve moves like that mid-season. The payroll might not balloon up to where people feel it should be, but there is no reason to believe it will go down.

As far as what's left of 2016, the Jays have their two best SP's going the next two days so it's not over yet, but my guess is the Jays are either going to miss the playoffs entirely or have to play a 163rd game. I actually think it's more likely the Jays are passed in the standings by the Tigers (and/or the Mariners) than it is that they'll win a WC spot outright. I'm not looking at odds or % here. Just looking at how the team is playing combined with who their competitors are facing. I'm not optimistic.

Let's be realistic about those two top-100 prospects. They could end up being useful players - maybe a fourth OF and a backup catcher with strong defense - but the odds are low that they'll amount to more than that. The Pittsburgh front office undoubtedly moved them because it believes that neither is going to become a frontline player.

the Yankees are skipping Tanaka's last start of the season. I wonder whether, after the brawl in Toronto and the bad blood it engendered, New York is going out of its way to lend the O's a helping hand in the final series of the season.

Tanaka missed his last start, Monday against Toronto. It had nothing to do with the Yankees attempting to skew the WC race, nor would that be allowed. And the Yankees are the classiest organization in professional sports. Tanaka had flexor strain, and has already thrown 199 innings, way more than last year.

You don't want to know how he's done when the score was tied. Or when the team was protecting a lead. You really don't.

Well you've piqued my curiosity at least. I don't know how to look that up.

I really like McGuire. There's always going to be a place for defensively-gifted catchers with outstanding plate discipline. Ramirez on the other hand really needs to start hitting for power or he's going to be a poor-fielding LF/DH who hits like a centerfielder. But doesn't run like one.

I think Pittsburgh let those guys go because that was the cost of dumping what they saw as $35M worth of sunk cost. If Liriano was pitching for Pittsburgh like he's been doing for the Jays, the deal sure wouldn't have happened the way it did. Maybe the Jays know something about all these players that Pittsburgh doesn't. The Jays sure seemed to know something about Liriano, at the least.

Neither are elite prospects, but you're not going to get elite prospects in a salary dump. They both have certain parts of their games that they do exceedingly well (hit tool for Ramirez, defensive/plate discipline for McGuire) but also have some holes that need to be addressed. Regardless, getting players like that into the system essentially for the cost of taking on a "big contract" attached to a MLB player that might provide surplus value next season is a positive, especially given the state of the system as far as prospects in the upper minors. Maybe they help the big league club someday, maybe they are used in trades, or maybe they fizzle out completely. For the Jays, it was well worth the risk/investment.

The Liriano move has turned out well even though I think Pittsburgh sold high on both prospects - Ramirez already needs to be stashed on the 40 man and has used an option, and as a corner OF with no power (13 career HRs???) his ceiling is pretty darn low - Melky Cabrera?

Benoit was a homerun, but other deadline moves have been busts - Scott Feldman, Melvin Upton.  Hard to say if they should have done more at the deadline, but it's not impossible to see the logic behind the 'indifferent ownership' narrative - it's everywhere in the media, and true or not, fan perception counts.  But Mike D, I would take your bet, though I think the rise will be minimal.  Perhaps I'm a homer, but I don't see this team doing a rebuild even if we lose all of the big three sluggers.  Donaldson, 3 great young pitchers, Pillar and Travis, a solid rotation.   Tulo and Martin are on solid deals IMO and that's the bet I really want to make - will they end up offering surplus value on those contracts?  Russ needs just over $34 million of value in 3 years per Fangraphs to break even, and Tulo needs $77 million over 4 years, with an 11 million dollar team option in 2021.  I think they both make it.  But I'm only writing about 2021 because this current team's making me damn nervous.

To me, the big issue isn't on ownership directly -  even the team and the players in question seem to assume that Jose and EE are gone next year - that is on the FO and seems to be an unnecessary distraction - which may have influenced morale, or may not have.  

BTW, Liam Hendricks would sure look good in the pen right about now.

I supported the Liriano trade and liked that the Jays were able to get McGuire and Ramirez as depth players in the deal. It's the rhetorical use of "top-100 prospects" to bolster one's position that I find slightly disingenuous. There are top-100 prospects (like, say, Guerrero Jr., or, once upon a time, Aaron Sanchez) that are potential difference-makers, and there are top-100 prospects with considerably less potential to make an impact. Arguing for a trade because it involves two top-100 prospects doesn't really tell you all that much.

This is 1987 all over again

Well, in 1987 they won 96 games. They were 19-5 in September going into the last 7 games of the year, and still ended up with a September record of 19-9. This team has been terrible offensively all month. They are 11-16 in September, the same as also-rans Colorado and Arizona. They have scored fewer runs over that period than any team in the AL. The only team they scored more runs than was the Marlins, by 1 run. Had it not been for the loss of Jose Fernandez resulting in a cancelled Marlins game, the Blue Jays almost certainly would have scored the fewest runs in MLB in September. I don't know when that last happened. Not in 2013 or 2004, when they finished last.

On the last Sunday of 1987 it was tense, worrisome and exciting. Then Larry Herndon. Here it's not really all that tense. Instead, they inspire weariness and pessimism.

You know one way to look at this is that our team now has the opportunity to play more meaningful games than anyone in October.

And also that May was a good month for the Jays despite their awful April.

yeah Liriano has been ok but it's the offense that needed help, and management took care of that by adding upton and navarro and extending smoak (combined -1war since).

and we're gonna fall one win short of the playoffs.

and David Price will strike the final blow.

I will laugh through my tears.

Well, maybe the new boss won't "go for it" over and over every year since 2013 and maybe the Jays will instead start putting into actual practise Anthopoulos' original stated mandate of building an organization that can contend every year, rather than hoping for a two-year window of contention after raping the farm system in order to acquire as many other teams' bloated free-agent contracts as possible.

Imagine what the Jays could do with a development system like Tampa's or Oakland's (or even Cleveland's!) if they didn't have to sell off anyone of value who got to their second arby year.

In the end it all comes down to how hard you think it is to build a contending core.

You guys think it's easy - just keep collecting prospects and not signing any big deals and eventually a contending core will emerge.

I think it's very hard - even with very good drafting and prospect collecting there's still nowhere close to a guarantee that you'll ever produce a contending core. and without some good luck in the draft you do need to make risky bold moves to acquire core pieces in a non-ideal way.

And how hard you think it is to build a contending core relates directly to how much you value the current contending core, and feel they were worth a major short-sighted move or two to help win now.

I think we missed a rare opportunity here, and you guys think it'll be easy to get similar opportunity soon.....despite 2 decades of failure telling us it's not.

Whatever. who cares anymore? you guys should be happy - you clearly have the kind of management you want in place now, so there's only reason for optimism. there's no need to even argue about it.

You do need to take some chances on big contracts, especially in the AL East, but building a great farm system is undoubtedly the way to go. That's how the Jays put themselves in position to contend in 2015 and 2016, and that's why the Red Sox have become the best team in the league. Instead of cashing in Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley Jr., and Benintendi, they kept them and built around them. And that's what the Yankees are currently doing.

"It's the rhetorical use of "top-100 prospects" to bolster one's position that I find slightly disingenuous."


McGuire's been ranked in the top 100 prospects for multiple sites since 2014, and Ramirez was prior to this season. Much like someone earlier in the year took offense when I said the Jays had a "bottom 10" system in baseball prior to this season, it's more stating a fact than trying to make something look better or worse. It says nothing about the quality long-term; it's stating what the Jays have (or in this case received) at the time it happened.

I'd also disagree with your notion that there are different kinds of top 100 prospects. Typically, the ones towards the bottom of that list (where McGuire and Ramirez fall prior to this year), are not the top prospects in baseball. They are good, but lack the perceived star upside that players ranked a lot higher usually have. That doesn't really mean much either way since predicting the trajectory of prospects is very hit or miss, but it also indicates that Ramirez and McGuire in particular are not in the upper echelon of prospects. So I'm not sure how me stating that they are in a group of the top 100 paints them any differently than what is perceived of them already. It wasn't disingenuous at all, unless you took it as a way to make them look like stars, which clearly it doesn't.

How about we not quite eliminate the team till it's actually happened.

I don't care how they do it. Just become the Canadian version of the Cardinals.

Do it....

mcguire and ramirez aren't top 5 prospects in our "bottom 10" system. If they max out their upside you're probably looking at 2 average starting players.

Our besides ranking very well statistically (see: KATOH) our bottom 10 system has also been doing well so far in BA's milb top 20s:

NWL: #6 Woodman, #8 Maese
APP: #1 Guerrero
GCL: #4 Bichette

and Maese and Vladdy are both 2yrs young for those levels.

I don't know, it seems to have worked for the Pirates, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Orioles and other teams. Also the Jays have a higher payroll than most of those teams too.

But I think SK went over the value of the current core just fine in the last thread. That core dropped six wins from last year. They'll drop again next year. So I'm not sure what missed opportunity there was here. To build a team around a group of 32+ year olds who are declining fast? Do you think in any way those guys are going to compete going forward with the elite young hitters the Sox have? Or even the Yankees hitters?

Also not sure who their even was this year to build around them. Yes there is Price who while good wouldn't have helped us that much since starting pitching was the strength of the team this year. Was their some FA available last season who weren't starting pitching that would have helped a lot and been available? There is Zobrist I guess but the rest of the FA hitting market last season has sucked. I recall people all wanted Heyward.

And for this trade deadline who was available? Pretty much nothing of note. Sure there was the closers the Yankees had who they were never trading in division, but most position players who were available were worse than our starters. So you have to go for OF or DH type and yet nothing of note was traded this season in those positions. So a lot of empty criticism of players we could have acquired but no mentioning of actual names, because it's easier to complain that way.

I'm not happy about it, but it was the culmination of the moves AA made. Trading away the farm and never investing in player development was never going to be sustainable. So for me there was a rare opportunity there to build a team around a pair of cost controlled sluggers. Except for me the time was 2011 and the guy who missed that was AA. I learned back in the early 2000s with the Yankees that you can't buy titles. Their titles dried up when they stopped producing from within and tried to trade/sign their way to victory. Not a surprise to see that a team who doesn't have the richest payroll in baseball fails as well.

can we please have enough of this "name names" argument? if i do "name names" you'll just come back with a "how do you knownwe could get them?". enough already.

i mean how about instead of asking for McGuire and Ramirez we asked the pirates for impending FAs that can actually hit like say Sean Rodriguez or John Jaso?

Typically, the ones towards the bottom of that list (where McGuire and Ramirez fall prior to this year), are not the top prospects in baseball

Actually, lots of highly-regarded prospects start low on the top-100 list and work their way up. For example, Aaron Sanchez was ranked #65 in 2013, #32 in 2014, and #27 in 2015. Stroman was #98 in 2013, then moved up to #55 in 2014. I would not put Ramirez (#95 on BA's 2016 top 100) in the same class as, say, Stroman in 2013.

And Guerrero Jr. isn't even on the top 100 this year, but I would take him in a heartbeat over a package that included both McGuire and Ramirez.

Forget about the O's. The concern now is staying ahead of Detroit.
Besides, the Jays couldn't beat the Yankees pen, so if the Orioles can, they completely deserve the win.

My stance on the Jays roster hasn't changed since last year. They had the talent to win in 2016, but AA's strategy was simply not a sustainable one, and it was going to bottom out soon. Unfortunately, a horrendous September collapse this season will/might prevent them from reaching the playoffs in a season where their win curve was probably the highest it will be in a while. When your 30-something star players are six wins worse this season than the year before, you can't really point fingers at role players. Collectively, the stars were simply not good enough, and they certainly had more than enough help with a pitching staff that not only performed exceedingly well but stayed healthy all season as well.

Now is the time to change gears and try to a build a more sustainable roster. It doesn't have to be all from the farm system. They can still trade prospects for areas of need, but it will have to be more calculated and long-term driven, rather than taking on another team's bad contract attached to a player in his 30's and selling that player as a star when his best years are probably behind him.

I actually think Shapiro did a good job in making the 2016 team (which was AA's core whether they won or lost) as good as he could based on his resources. Can't really blame the front office for the type of September this team had.

Farrell would love to stick the knife in the Jays, after dustup Yankees want to stick it to Jays, Braves already booking their tee off time & gasoline alley for a bullpen - Good Luck

Yankees fielding their C lineup today. So that's great.

Who will the Jays next manager be?

Stroman has regressed this year, instead of taking a step forward.
I don't see a long term contract in the cards for him.
Ramirez is limited by his lack of power,  but he could be a guy who gets on bases for the top of the order and hits with runners in scoring position.
Carrera was a base stealing machine in the minor but hasn't done much for the Jays on the basepath.

I don't know how to look [Cecil's ERA when the Jays are tied or leading] up.

Neither do I, actually! - I just went through Cecil's game logs. And now I've forgotten the exact figure. It was more than 5.00, less than 6.00. Either way, not what you want on the mound in a close game.

""When your 30-something star players are six wins worse this season than the year before, you can't really point fingers at role players"

I mean this argument is so disingenuous i can't believe you guys even type it.

Why are you pretending that the likes of Sanchez and Stroman aren't part of the core of this team they inherited?

""Who will the Jays next manager be?"

it was always going to be wedge.

greenfrog, the ranking (which is subjective to begin with) can change depending on trajectory. So Vlad Jr, for example, might be in the low end of the prospect list this year, but he's someone who will climb due to age, perceived upside, etc. Whereas someone like McGuire will be highly rated for certain strengths he currently has at a young age (defense, plate discipline) but the trajectory will be entirely up to his performance because the upside isn't as high. If Ramirez has a great 2017 in the minors, he's still not going to climb as high on the rankings as someone with more perceived upside would because he's limited in certain areas that might hurt him (power in particular). I've read conflicting things on his defense and base running, but those two things could help or hurt him as well depending on how they develop over time.

It's really semantics. And subjective. My point was exactly what I said; they got two top 100 prospects in a salary dump. If nothing else, it adds much needed depth to the system. In a best case, they get MLB'ers out of it. No one knows how it will end up, but at the end of the day, the good systems have depth in addition to front end talent. The Jays lack the front end talent, aside from Guerrero (IMO), but are improving on the depth now.

To SK's point, saying that prospects are top 100 sort of implies that they are in the bottom half of that, no?  If they were top 50, you'd say that .... so I see no overstatement in that claim at all.

But of course, I still disagree that ours was a 'bottom ten' system, but that's a moot point now given our successful draft and the emerging young talent.  Greenfrog is spot on that Vladdy Jr., for example, is worth more by himself than McGuire and Ramirez.  and of course there are different types of top 100 prospects - it's that combo of floor, ceiling and age / development. 

Of course you can 'win from within' but you can also win by signing tons of top FAs.  It's not like a bunch of guys on the internet are smarter than the FO's that continue to sign big FA contracts.  IMO, the best teams are the ones that do both - the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs have fantastic systems and top 5 payrolls.  Where did the Yanks get all those prospects at the deadline?  they traded expensive FAs.  I'd rather be a part of that group - which of course Rogers could afford if they wanted to - than part of the Houston / Pittsburgh / Cleveland model - bottom ten payrolls with a focus on development who need everything to go right for a shot at contention. 

The yanks et al are iconic franchises, but it's not like new icons can't emerge - if we fielded a big salaried winner year after year, we could easily join the ranks of the iconic franchise.  Is that good business?  I could at least see an argument that it is.

Kasi, do you want to take my bet that Tulo and Martin end up being worth their deals? 

Man, is it gametime yet? 

Also, is Wedge better than Gibby?

Stroman has regressed this year, instead of taking a step forward

Nope. Stroman has pitched like a #2 starter this year. He has generated 3.6 fWAR with a 3.71 FIP (3.54 FIP last year). He has struck out 7.32 per 9 IP (up from 6.0 per 9 IP last year, albeit with a slightly higher walk and HR rate). His second half stats are even better: 8.49 K and 2.15 BB per 9 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.49 FIP, 3.01 xFIP. On top of all that, he's stayed healthy and pitched 204 innings. Among qualified AL starting pitchers, he ranks 9th (out of 41) in fWAR, behind Price and Sanchez and ahead of pitchers like Happ, Archer, Estrada, Hamels and Fulmer.

stroman also only contributed 4 starts last year.

"Why are you pretending that the likes of Sanchez and Stroman aren't part of the core of this team they inherited?"


Well, they aren't 30-somethings for one thing, so that eliminates them from being part of the group I was referring to. Secondly, a lot of the projected WAR heading into this season was on the backs of the five players we are discussing. They are the veterans and perceived stars of the team. They collectively underachieved, and when the team falls a few wins short of 90 this season, it will largely be because of those players collectively not giving the team what it needed, especially in the last month.

Sanchez panning out was a great thing, and also an unexpected thing that compensated for some of the decline from the vets. He's not the problem with this team. He's young, good, cheap, and controllable. The team needs more Sanchez's, if anything. Well, some offensive equivalents to Sanchez would be a little more helpful at the present time.

""Well, they aren't 30-somethings for one thing, so that eliminates them from being part of the group I was referring to. "

Yes, this is what we call an intentionally dishonest selective sample.

Uglyone you've constantly criticized the management for not supporting the team by not making deals to support them. My contention is the players to actually improve the team don't exist. They're not available or not upgrades. I suppose the contention was if we still had the ninja we could have robbed someone, but I don't see the Dodgers making any amazing deals this deadline either. Maybe his magic is gone or they're not listening.

TBH the collection of players moved in the deadline this year were fairly mediocre. My opinion is if here was a player available that would upgrade a team it would have happened. So rather than dream about deals that didn't happen I look at the deals that did happen and wonder if the Jays could have got that guy instead. I don't see many players moved this year that could have helped them.

Also given the makeup of this team there wasn't a whole lot of holes to fill. It was basically a DH type (which we have too many of already), RP or a quality OF. There weren't any quality OFs available. Upton had been bad but so have Beltran, Bruce and Riddick. I wouldn't mind an upgrade to Barney is the utility IF role, but I don't think any of those got moved either.

Now I can see maybe they should have gotten another RP. I mean they did get Biagini early this year and Benoit and Grili were both good pickups but it seems obvious the relievers AA left were fairly underwhelming. Perhaps if your team doesn't trade a dozen pitchers the year before you might have more options for relief candidates. I suppose they should have picked up another RP option in hindsight. Someone like Abad for example who had been solid.

Also, is Wedge better than Gibby?

He certainly is in bullpen management according to 538.com, at least using a measurement developed to assess the best and worst of bullpen managers with 5 years or more this century. Wedge fit in as one of the best and Gibbons as one of the worst.

As has been noted, there's a lot more than in-game strategy in measuring a manager, like motivating a team to play well. But after this September collapse, it's hard to see much in favour of continuing with Gibbons.

I'd be all for a Wedge choice. But Ozzie Guillen would also be an extremely interesting move.

Jerjapan I think Martin will be worth his deal. Tulo I don't think will be. Regardless I don't think either of them is going to generate much surplus value. I do agree with you the balanced model is what they should be looking at. Or as someone said earlier in the thread, the Cardinals way.

Jays vs Sox comparison, ages 28 and younger.

Hitters: 3.7 vs 21.9 fWar
Pitchers: 10.1 vs 9.0 fWar

That top number really illustrates the issues with the team. And for as much as we have quality you pitching in Osuna, Sanchez and Stroman the Jays are not that much better than the Sox in that category.

That was more a follow up to the SK vs UO discussion. Even when you include the young players the Jays look bad in comparison. Farrell was spot on when he called the Jays a scouting organization. I can only hope the moves management has done this year to turn over the front office begins to fix that.

Speaking of young pitchers, Daniel Norris had a nice outing last night. 6.2 ip, 5 hits, 1 run, 8 k's 2 bb's.

Kasi, I agree that there weren't many good options available at the deadline, but Reddick has been outstanding in September (176 wRC+). So has Carlos Gomes (168 wRC+). Compare that to Saunders (16 wRC+) or Upton Jr. (47 wRC+), both of whom have helped drain the Jays' offense of life.

My hypothesis about Upton is that while he was able to thrive somewhat in the low-pressure environment of San Diego, he was ill-suited to the constant high pressure of a close AL East pennant race.

I totally agree with SK in NJ that it is now time to build a more sustainable contender.

Would like to see more discussion of the front office hires but maybe no-one is interested. Telegraphs building from within imo. As for comments on the Pirates deal, I think it was a great deal for the Jays and don't see any possible downside..

Anyone have any thoughts on the acquisition of Tim Lopes. I am thinking he may need to be put on 40 man before WM and that is why he was available. For those in the dark, he is th PTBNL in the Venditte deal. His numbers seem decent with major league possibilities.

"Jays vs Sox comparison, ages 28 and younger.

Hitters: 3.7 vs 21.9 fWar
Pitchers: 10.1 vs 9.0 fWar

That top number really illustrates the issues with the team. And for as much as we have quality you pitching in Osuna, Sanchez and Stroman the Jays are not that much better than the Sox in that category."

Age 28 seems an....arbitrary year to use.

Age 25 and younger:

TOR: 11.1
BOS: 13.6

Peter, I also was interested in discussing the new hires. I was intrigued by hiring someone so young as SD. I read that he's from NW, worked as an intern for the Dodgers and Red Sox and shot up the scouting chain in Boston. I was wondering whether he was a C herington recommendation, or whether on the other hand one appeal of hiring Cherington was to attract RS guys from the FO.

Sheehan has also been assigned new responsibilities and the departmental relationships seem have been reorganized.

Clearly everything that can go wrong has with the offense this year. Bautista got old and injured. Saunders was alive and well for 1/2 a season then fell apart. Pillar hit like a 4th outfielder, Smoak was Smoak, Martin had a horrid start and will finish under 100 for OPS+ unless something major happens (4 HR game). The bench was horrid and aquired players hit like limp spaghetti (Upton has a worse OPS+ than Junior Lake did and Navarro is hitting worse than Goins and his OPS+ is 10 points lower than Thole !!!)

Btw, for 'what you do know' - Brett Cecil has an ERA+ over 100 now (only 1 run allowed all of Sept/Oct and of course it cost the Jays a game).

People here obsess with FIP, but it's just not a very good measure. It's focused on homeruns and strikeouts. It's even normalized to the league average ERA to make it even more meaningless.  Stroman gives lots of hits and to win with him you actually need good fielders.

fWAR for pitchers is known to be a worthless figure. bWAR gives
Sanchez 4.4
Happ 4.2
Estrada 3.5
Osuna 1.8
Stroman 1.5
Benoit 1.5
Biagini 0.8
and Liriano 0.7 in only 8 starts.

Stroman will be the 5th starter next year. He's still cheap and controllable which might make him a trade target.
 

Norris has had a nice year. Interestingly, he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his 13 starts. His HR rate remains a bit high, but his K and BB numbers have improved and he's striking out over a batter an inning. He's still only 23. It will be interesting to see how he does over the next couple of seasons.

Josh Reddick has an OPS of .655 since the trade to LA, and an OPS+ with LAD of 80. He'd fit right in with Saunders, who has a second half OPS of .638, and Pillar, who has a second half OPS of .631.

"People here obsess with FIP, but it's just not a very good measure"

the anti-fip reaction is just misinformed. FIP is far from a perfect measure, but it's a simple fact that it's a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself is.

this is why Cherington gave a 26yr old Porcello a $100m contract - because of his FIP and xFIP.

Age 23-25

Porcello: 91gs, 6.1ip/gs, 4.11era, 3.71fip, 3.59xfip, 3.0fwar/32gs
Stroman: 56gs, 6.3ip/gs, 3.79era, 3.38fip, 3.32xfip, 4.1fwar/32gs

Cherington thought Porcello was worth $20m x 5yrs at that point. And we just hired Cherington.

Stroman as SP:

Career: 56gs, 6.3ip/gs, 3.79era, 3.38fip, 3.32xfip, 4.1fwar/32gs
2nd Half '16: 14gs, 6.3ip/gs, 3.68era, 3.49fip, 3.01xfip, 4.3fwar/32gs

Stroman is an amazing young pitcher, and our FO knows it.

Stroman will be the 5th starter next year. He's still cheap and controllable which might make him a trade target.

The player that I fantasized about obtaining in the offseason is Chris Archer, who has had terrible bullpen and offensive support this year, and a 9-19 record as a result. It turns out he's signed for years to come at a reasonable price.

Gomes I agree would have been an interesting pickup since it was basically prospect free. I know the Jays wanted Hill, but I wonder what their interest for Riddick was.

Reddick was awful in August, and amazing in September.

Anyone have any thoughts on the acquisition of Tim Lopes. I am thinking he may need to be put on 40 man before WM and that is why he was available. For those in the dark, he is th PTBNL in the Venditte deal. His numbers seem decent with major league possibilities.

Utility infielder with no power. 8 homeruns in 5 years. Can steal a base but doesn't have great success ratio.
He could take the place of Burns at AAA who will be 26 next year.

And sure make it 25 and younger if you want. They have Moncada, Benintendi and others ready to contribute now. We have Pompey. Oops guess we lose again. Point is any measurement of contribution from players under 30 we lose. We lose even more so when you analyze the players they have in the high minors we don't. Sure pin your hopes on Tellez, Alford and Urena but they all have significant flaws in their game compared to the studs the Sox have.

I showed the 25 and under number. It doesn't show what you say it does.

Even if you prefer BRef to fangraphs, Stroman has been well above average in the second half this year. He's still only 25 (in a way, he's more like 24, having missed almost all of last year).

Stroman is a good young pitcher. Not an ace and likely will never be one, but I think he can be a solid number 2-3. That's the nice thing about the Jays current rotation once Dickey goes. No number ones, but you can argue the top five could all be 2-3s next year. (Sanchez is our closest to a number one, but don't think he's quite there. Needs to address the LH platoon issues a but. Still a high 2 though which is great)

Stroman shows every sign of being an ace.

Last I checked 13.6 beats 11. Your numbers are quite clear, even when it ignores that they have the number one prospect in all of baseball not on that list yet. Next year who do the Jays promote to the majors who can help? Pompey of the .700 AAA OPS? Tellez or Alford if you're hugely optimistic. Fact is they have bigger contribution from younger players, a 23 year old soon to be MVP and a much better minor league system than we do. By any measure the Jays come up short.

"mcguire and ramirez aren't top 5 prospects in our "bottom 10" system. If they max out their upside you're probably looking at 2 average starting players."

I am absolutely amazed at this comment. You're in love with your little mom's basement cherry-picking analyses, but somehow, a trade that acquires two assets who "might" become league-average players controlled by the organization for six years' worth of surplus value is something actually worth criticizing? Really???

What do you DO for a living, exactly???

Stroman being an ace depends on which Stroman wins going forward. The guy who strikes people out or the one who doesn't. Sure if the Ks are there he's amazing, I remember Sullivan's post on pitch comparables. If he pitches to his potential he could be an ace. I don't think he'll do it though.

Of 60 qualified AL SP from 2014-2016 Stroman ranks #19 in ERA-, 7th in FIP-, and 8th in xFIP-. He's done this at ages 23-25, and done it without being sheltered by being pulled early in games.

And he's beaten all those career marks in the 2nd half this year.

In fact, Stroman leads all of baseball in xFIP- in the 2nd half this year, tied with Jose Fernandez (RIP).

this is why Cherington gave a 26yr old Porcello a $100m contract - because of his FIP and xFIP.

That is purely your interpretation.

Stroman's FIP was 2.84 in 2014 and he wasn't bad.
In 2016, it has jumped up to 3.71 and he has been mediocre.

Now somehow that tells you he's about to dominate?

Stroman does not give many homeruns because he pitches mostly with a sinker in the bottom of the strike zone.
He gives many hits because he doesn't use the whole plate. Still, if a GM is fooled by his FIP, it would be a great idea to sell high.

"a trade that acquires two assets who "might" become league-average players controlled by the organization for six years' worth of surplus value is something actually worth criticizing?"

yes, trading for that at the deadline when you are trying to win a world series seems obviously worth criticizing to me.

I am absolutely amazed that you are absolutely amazed at that.

"yes, trading for that at the deadline when you are trying to win a world series seems obviously worth criticizing to me. I am absolutely amazed that you are absolutely amazed at that.

I know, right?

Drew Hutchison has pitched like an ace since that trade! If they hadn't sent him away, the Jays' hitters would've been unstoppable in September!

Once you graduate high school, you should ask your mom to buy you some introductory argumentation theory courses at a local community college. Thanks for coming out, though.

Scottt - generally fWAR is good for future views, bWAR for seeing what actually happened. by fWAR we get
Sanchez 3.8 vs 4.4
Stroman 3.6 vs 1.5
Happ 3.2 vs 4.2
Estrada 3.0 vs 3.5

Osuna 1.8 vs 1.8 (guess he is that)

So big spreads are Happ (expect a drop which I figure we all expect anyways) and Stroman (expect a jump - he was 'wow' last year, 'meh' this, so a climb is expected).

FYI I love the tactic I really do - but condescension doesn't work when you clearly have trouble with basic logic.

He's still only 25 (in a way, he's more like 24, having missed almost all of last year).

Injuries are a good thing now?

He's experimenting. Trying to make adjustments. I don't know that it's a good sign.
If he hadn't gone through those bad months, the Jays would have gotten that wild card spot now.

I'm happy to see Dickie gone next year. My expectations for Stroman is 12 wins/100ERA+.
Let's see if he's still standing in April first. Like with Happ, I'd be happy to be wrong.

I assume Parker it takes a lot of time to come up with the right years to include, which version of war to use, whether ip or AB should be normalized to starter/fulltime innings and all of that.

As for why I chose 28 it's the age at which after players tend to decline (taking in sample size of all players) Thus anyone younger than that has a decent chance of improving. I don't know why you'd choose 25 since that number doesn't mean anything. Well other than make Jays numbers look better.

Scott, just curious - what did you think of the Happ (20-4, 134 ERA+) signing, and how does your opinion of Happ then compare to that of Stroman now?

Comments are on the record in the November 27, 2015 thread.

"As for why I chose 28 it's the age at which after players tend to decline (taking in sample size of all players) Thus anyone younger than that has a decent chance of improving. I don't know why you'd choose 25 since that number doesn't mean anything. Well other than make Jays numbers look better."

heh. how trumpian of you - accuse me of using a selected number to to twist the numbers when that's exactly what you did.

Of all the recent studies done, mlb peak performance age has ranged anywhere from 26 to 30.

Age 25 is a good limit to what can be considered "young".

ugly, despite my condescending attitude, you could still take the high road and explain to us exactly how the Blue Jays lost the Liriano trade.

Well I didn't do any investigative reporting. However:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/25/5437902/pitching-aging-curves

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-aging-curves/

Seems like from what I can tell hitters peak at about 28 (or are flat to 28 and decline after) while pitchers peak a couple years earlier. Since of the young players we have are entirely pitchers while the Sox are mostly hitters that might not be as good. So sure 25 is an age to choose but I don't really see any distinction in the numbers between that and say 27. However that does eliminate a whole lot of value Red Sox players are providing that don't fall into your neat narrative on under 25.

Parker, they did win the Liriano trade. No doubt about it. In fact every single move they have made is entirely defensible value wise.

But I'm more concerned with winning championships than winning trades is all.

Tim Lopes, age 22, is the younger brother of Christian Lopes.....interesting.

Honest question - who here hopes that we at least make a real offer to EE this offseason? regardless of whether he takes it or not>

say $20m x 4yrs?

Do we want that to happen?

heck yeah I'd like to see that.  He can play some 1b and some DH.   Smoak only makes sense to me in the role of defensive caddy for EE anyway. 

No. QO. He won't take it because some foolish organization will give him four years.

None of Encarnacion's comps on Baseball-Reference have provided any value after age 33, other than Hank Sauer from 50 years ago. Most of them weren't even still in the Majors at age 35. If he's even replacement-level in 2018, that will be a miracle for whoever is dumb enough to sign him.

ugly, for someone who loves to project non-existent performance for players who've never actually done anything over a single full season, you are remarkably gullible when it comes to assuming Blue Jays players will somehow be immune to the aging curve. I know you think every old and declining Jay is going to turn into David Ortiz, but how many players have turned into David Ortiz?

Just the one.

Feel free to put together your little spurious "analysis" to prove me wrong, though. Otherwise, let's talk in 2018 when the teams that threw a crazy amount of money at Encarnacion and Bautista are wondering why they're paying $20M-$25M a season for replacement-level production.

"No. QO. He won't take it because some foolish organization will give him four years."

I hope you do call the organization which signs him "foolish", but I'm not sure you will.

It depends what the team's annual budget going forward is. If it's $190m, sure, give EE 4/80. If it's $135m, probably not.

Yankees have tied Baltimore 3-3 and have a runner on 1st with none out. 7th inning.

I could imagine a 4 at $20 per offer. I figure someone will give $25 per though. The value of a win keeps growing.

Huge PA in the Yankees game right now. 3-3 game, runners at 2nd and 3rd, 1 out for New York, bottom 8.

You cannot offer EE 4 years and have any hope of building a sustainable contender as there will be too much $$$ tied up in older and declining players. What would you have to offer JD then? That's another story as I fully expect him to be dealt in the off season unless he fools us and signs a team friendly 5 year extension. And yes, I know he is under contract for 2017 which simply makes him easier to trade imo. Shapiro will never allow a similar situation to the one team is in now with EE and JBO to develop. HIs maximum value is this off season and a study of Shapiro's past MO suggests that this is a likely course of action.

"Yes, this is what we call an intentionally dishonest selective sample."


I don't know how to respond to this because I have no idea what you're arguing. I even re-read your previous post before this and still don't know where you were going with it. What do Sanchez and Stroman have to do with what I said and what am I being dishonest about?

The star players on this team in 2016 were Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulo, and Martin. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure the projections prior to this season had those five as the best players on the team, as they should have. When those players, who are the established stars of the team, collectively underachieve, then it's going to bring the team down. Happ, Estrada, and Sanchez far exceeded what was expected for them. As did Osuna. As did many members of the pen (Biagini, Benoit, Grilli until September, etc). Stroman has been good, if not a bit disappointing given the expectations but certainly good enough. I think regression from Pillar and Travis offensively wasn't all that surprising, but they still provided enough value overall. Barney has been good off the bench. Carrera has far surpassed anything he's done before. And so on. I know you like to focus hatred towards Smoak and Upton, but those two have been glued to the bench for the most part during this September swoon.

At the end of the day, it comes down to not getting enough value from their star players, and I'll include Saunders in that mix as well because he was playing like a star in the first half before a disgusting 2nd half slide. I've argued that all season. If the Jays got typical seasons out of those five players, even factoring some age related regression, they would clinched a playoff spot by now. They've collectively been worse than expected, and here the team is. That's just reality.

I've been pretty miserable about the Jays' play recently, but the Yankees just came back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the O's. That's huge. The Jays can reclaim a share of first place in the WC race with a win tonight.

WAR post trade deadline/mid-season moves (prior to today's game)...

TOR: 1.1 (Grilli, Liriano, Benoit, Upton, Feldman)
BOS: 0.9 (Hill, Ziegler, Pomeranz, Abad)

What would you assume to be the reason for the Red Sox 2nd half run, knowing that they didn't get as much value from their mid-season pick ups as the Jays did?

What would you have to offer JD then? That's another story as I fully expect him to be dealt in the off season

That would be quite the move.

Not the first inning the Jays wanted tonight. Two in and two out so far.

At least it's only 5:30 in Calgary. The night will still be young when this one is over (it might not even be night, at this rate).

Two on, none out. Will this be another squander, or will the Jays manage to put together a rally?

You already know the answer. Strikeout, double play.

Detroit up 1-0 in 3rd.

The whinyness is getting out of control. Hey, guess what, your team doesn't win every game.

I don't think anyone's expecting to win every game. ANY game at this point would be nice.

You mean 1+87.

The Pillar hit was a beautiful thing, but it was still another squander, stranding runners at 2nd and 3rd with only one out.

Hey man, my reverse jinx worked! :-)

king Ryan, Four Seamer, Blue Jay Way...stop whining, stop trying to predict the future and/or confirm your lack of faith in the ball club. You guys sound like that 50 year old who sits behind me and bitches for 7 innings before leaving the game in time for his glass of milk and bed time.

After half a season of putting up with a curmudgeon's complaining about the Jays, my wife turned around and asked "why do you pay to come here and complain all game? You do realize you're talking into our ears every game, right?" She had a standing ovation from our section for shutting the old man up, and the games are now much more enjoyable to watch.

I'm sorry that I'm feeling frustrated with how the month of September went and am venting on here as part of my catharsis. I won't post again.

I know their play has been, well 'uninspiring' lately to put it extremely kindly. But the attitude around here lately has been that towards a 100 loss team. I don't even want to get into any arguments about how the 2017 team is already hopeless.

As for 2016, maybe think of it this way: if this season comes down to one play-in game, heck it's not impossible that even the 1962 Mets could win such a game with everything on the line. That's baseball, folks.

At the very least we can all agree though, our jerks need to win an important damn game already.

Also...the ball tickling of Ortiz needs to stop. Don't know which is more annoying, that, Tabler's commentary or Martinez's confidence while wearing that silly wig. Then again I suppose I'm now the complainer...

Looking like it's going to be a battle of the bullpens in this one.

Over his last 12 games Russ Martin is 4-53; Josh Donaldson 8-54.

Snap out of it!

And EE is 1-16 and his last HR was hit in Seattle. Now would be a good time.

On the positive side, Happ is dealing. And it's now 3-1 Atlanta.

I suspect Donaldson is hurting pretty bad.

I'd go:

Travis
Donaldson
Tulo
Bautista
Encarnacion
Martin

Happ has really righted the ship after that first inning. Ortiz is also out of the game now.

I wouldn't mind seeing Martin try to steal second. I just hope Gibbons doesn't get overly cautious and try to bunt him over.

I do not support this move to Grilli. 

Whoa, Saunders. Nice play.

That was good Grilli.

Tuning up the defibrillator

The Tigers just lost.

I don't know what is going on with the Jays' bats. I'm seeing a lot of undisciplined PAs, hacking at high fastballs and other pitches out of the zone.

A Balk? A BALK? Jeez, the Jays are finding new ways to blow it aren't they?

A checked swing double scores on a balk. Unbelievable.

Red Sox tie it on a check swing double and a balk. Because why not?

The Jays can't lose this game. They just can't.

Boston bringing in their closer for the second day in a row. Boston are resting no one so far in this series. They are doing us no favours.

Fourth blown save this week.

I want Pompey running. No bunt!

Boston wants to lock up home field advantage for their series.

If my calculations are correct, if Osuna can shut down the Sox here, the Jays are guaranteed at least a game 163.

That win may have just punched their ticket to the playoffs.

hooo leeeee shiznits. worst case is a play in game now. phew.

but does seattle get eliminated if they lose tonight?

Had em all the way.

That does guarantee them a game 163 for the second wild card, at worst.

Talk about pulling the lever and coming up cherries...Jays win, O's lose, Tigers lose.

Shout out to the #8 and #9 batters who drove in all our runs tonight. The top of the order continues to do not a heck of a lot. Still, a win is a win. Thank friggin God.

I would not pitch Sanchez tomorrow, save him for 163 or wildcard.

Wouldn't it be better to pitch Sanchez tomorrow, drive hard for home field advantage in the WC game, and then use Liriano plus whoever (including Stroman) in the WC game? I don't think you want to go to a game 163 if you can help it.

Technically, Sanchez pitches tomorrow to try to win the wild card home field  advantage.
The problem is that the bullpen is pretty shot now.

Could be a good time to decide the playoff rotation and move a starter to the pen.

Or save Sanchez for the wild card game.

I'm hoping Teheran can shut down the Tigers tomorrow, paving the way for a Jays WC game no matter what.

I suppose it makes sense that we pitch our best option tomorrow (Sanchez) , but I would really like to see Sanchez against the Orioles in the wildcard. Is it worth a gamble, throw Dickey in tomorrow and take our chances?

I would not pitch Sanchez tomorrow, save him for 163 or wildcard.

It's officially important October baseball.  Every game matters.  Don't let's get fancy with the pitching staff.  Sanchez should go as early as he normally would -- not before, not after.

I see that the WC game is scheduled for Tuesday. So, in theory, Sanchez tomorrow and Stroman on Tuesday. Works for me.

No need to overthink it, imo. Our top-4 SP are pretty interchangeable at the moment I think.

September/October

Liriano 4gs, 6.2ip/gs, 1.46era, 3.35fip
Stroman 6gs, 6.2ip/gs, 3.41era, 3.93fip
Happ 6gs, 5.6ip/gs, 2.97era, 4.01fip
Estrada 6gs, 5.3ip/gs, 3.98era, 3.24fip
Sanchez 4gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.37era, 4.60fip


2nd Half

Sanchez 11gs, 6.1ip/gs, 3.24era, 3.53fip
Stroman 14gs, 6.3ip/gs, 3.68era, 3.49fip
Happ 15gs, 5.9ip/gs, 2.93era, 3.98fip
Liriano 12gs, 5.7ip/gs, 3.95era, 4.30fip
Estrada 13gs, 5.5ip/gs, 4.27era, 4.19fip

Just keep rolling them out IMO.

Jays had only four hits tonight, Pillar had two of them. It would be nice to have a break out game for the hitters.

Its October so Price should be hittable tomorrow ;-)

Its October so Price should be hittable tomorrow ;-)

He's been eminently hittable already. His last three starts have gone 19.1 IP, 27 hits, 6.52 EFA.

The problem isn't whether he's hittable as other teams have shown, the problem is whether this team can hit anyone, especially a left-handed starter. Their slash line vs. LHP Starters so far this year is .235/.314/.399. I miss Danny Valencia. He owned Price.

I'd like to see Barney start at 2b tomorrow. Travis has been terrible this year vs. LH starters, with a .590 OPS. And Barney is the better defender as well.

I miss Danny Valencia. He owned Price.

A 1-day trade with the As, for next-to-nothing?

Your vendetta against Travis is weird.


Baltimore's Rotation:

SEP 28: Tillman
SEP 29: Jimenez
SEP 30: Gallardo
OCT 01: Miley
OCT 02: Gausman (probably won't be skipping him now)
OCT 03: ---
OCT 04: Jimenez (4 days) or Tillman (5 days)

I'd guess with the roll he's on they'd go with Ubaldo.

crazy game in Seattle.

This is fun. One day, one win to make the playoffs and have home field advantage for that one playoff game. Lose and they might miss the playoffs altogether, but would have a game 163 vs Detroit which would be a fun thing too - potentially 2 must wins in a row after a really, really want to win.

Sure beats the 20+ years of 'wonder if this kid will be good or not'.

There's a "report" that the Jays had 1st-choice in the 3-way tie scenario between TOR/BAL/DET and made (the obvious?) choice of hosting the first game, then the Orioles had 2nd-choice and made (the not so obvious?) choice of just hosting the second game (so BAL only has 1 chance to get to the wildcard game, while TOR and DET have 2 chances).  So the loser of Jays-Tigers in TO on Tuesday would play in Baltimore Wednesday and the two winners would play the AL wildcard game on Thursday, and that winner would play in Texas on Friday.  Ref: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/10/01/three-way-wild-card-tiebreaker-scenario-blue-jays-tigers-orioles/91414008/

The story doesn't mention that Seattle could still be involved in ties as well (though they're losing in the 10th at the moment).

Alternate link to that story that might work better: https://t.co/1FpmgSDwAh

Mariners eliminated.

Cel-e-bration time? C'mon?

Mariners eliminated.

And then there were three... (for the wildcard)

Cel-e-bration time? C'mon?

Definitely a victory of sorts - at least a play-in to a 1-game wildcard, or that other "win one of 2 to advance" kind of thing.. But hey - they hung in there! Osuna Matata!

To answer the earlier question, absent some secret team information about EE, I'd be very happy to sign EE to 4x20. I suspect he gets at least 100M, probably like 110M, over 5 years though. This off season is weak, and EE and Bautista are two of the better choices this off season.

A very exciting end to the season, sure, I wish the Jays had clinched earlier but I'm also a baseball fan and I love these sorts of scenarios. Baseball is a regular season game. I like the expanded playoffs because it gives chances to teams who wouldn't ever get them otherwise, but the league winner versus league winner was much more true to the game. Baseball is a long haul sport. The 2011 last few days was the most exciting period of baseball I ever remember. Just insane. I am somewhat optimistic about the game today and those are the rare sorts of games that have the potential to be all-timers.

If the Jays play the Orioles in the WC game, I hope its Liriano VS. Tillman - Liriano has been better than Stroman and the O's have had more trouble with LH this year & I fear Jimenez, when he's on, almost unhittable. I'm for moving Stroman to the pen- the old Jays need those off-days on Monday & Wednesday(hopefully) so I hope Detroit gets eliminated Sunday so that sudden death games don't get backed up, eliminating the off-day before the division series.

The Jays this year finished 3rd in the majors for attendance, just barely ahead of San Francisco (69k with 1 game to go in SF) and barely behind St Louis (trail by 7k with 1 game to go for StL) and well back of LA Dodgers (311k). With the solid season this year I suspect more of those will climb from the 20's to the 30k level. Lowest crowds were vs White Sox (April), Texas (May), Tampa (May), NYY (April, late May), Tampa (May). All other games were over 30k. Just 23 were sub 40k with more than half of all home games getting 45k+ (near sellouts).

No question the fans came out when given a playoff contender from opening day this year. Thus the nearly 600k more fans in stands than last year, or if you prefer a bigger increase than the next 2 teams combined (Cubs & Rangers = 540k with 1 game to go for Texas).

The Jays average ticket was $31.01 vs $25.14 last year in US dollars which means those extra tickets brought in roughly $18,519,420 while the ticket increase added $16,406,010 = net growth of $34,925,430 or enough to pay for, say, David Price with money left over.

In the first half (all I can find) the Jays were averaging 928k per game in viewers. To get an idea of how good that is the Royals were at 119k households per game, Boston 163k, Cubs 167k, Mets 228k, Yankees 188k, Tigers 136k, Giants 117k, Mariners 110k, Rangers 105k. Sadly the US uses households instead of viewers but unless the Mets had 5+ people per household watching (average per household is 2.58 in the US) the Jays easily had the most viewers of any ML team by a wide margin, maybe as much as twice as many. I'd have to think that added more to Rogers pockets than the attendance spike. Plus it isn't factoring in the value to them for extra playoff revenue, interest in baseball generally (which would up the ratings of other games shown plus ratings of sports news shows)

I don't know if Rogers can track how many tvs are showing a Blue Jays game, but I'm sure they can't know how many actual viewers are in front of each tv. Households seems like a more honest metric, but I don't know the formulas.

Does the teams (not the players) get paid for home games only or do they split the home/away sales?

I'm wondering if that's why Baltimore picked 1 home game versus 2 road games.

The missing bit of information for increased TV viewership is whether Rogers was able to get advertiser to pay more this year. I would not be surprised that the increased viewership translated into a large amount of revenue.

John the extra concessions and merchandise revenue from all those extra attendees would at least double that part of the revenue number.

They did charge more for spots, but they also had to give away many in the first half of the season as make-goods to advertisers when the hockey audiences were less than promised.

Boston is good. But for the month of Oct (SSS) the Jays have a higher winning %. By 1 game.
For me that is a very big deal.

Baltimore's decision seems foolish if their goal is to make the wildcard game.

The increased interest in the Jays also seems to be causing away game attendance to increase. Look at the recent games in Seattle and Boston.

The takeaway for Rogers has to be that with skilled marketing, postseason-calibre baseball teams in Toronto can generate huge revenue -- particularly when the team includes players with broad appeal (power hitters and power pitchers, Canadians, otherwise iconic players).

The question is, what is the sweet spot for Rogers -- that is, the least amount they need to spend to make the team competitive and marketable? Because that is likely what the Jays' budget will be.

If we assume at this stage, with all teams being relatively equal, that every game is a 50/50, then playing one game gives you a 50% chance to advance, playing two gives you a 25% chance.

It's not just Boston and Seattle... almost every away game has a sea of blue... I'm continually amazed how many Jays fans show up for away games in every single city... especially in the Rust Belt where locals can no longer afford baseball tickets. It's like a less-evil version of the away-game fan support the Yankees enjoy. I understand the Jays broadcast team probably has a mandate to focus on those people, but man, there are so many of them!

Gerry, but that doesn't apply in this scenario - if you win the 1st game, then you are not playing in the second game -
so you have a 50/50 shot to win game 1 , and if you lose, then a 50/50 shot in game 2 - that's 2 50/50 shot at advancing, while only 1 50/50 shot at advancing in the Baltimore scenario - though the home game & extra day of rest does mitigate that slightly.

A very exciting end to the season, sure, I wish the Jays had clinched earlier but I'm also a baseball fan and I love these sorts of scenarios. Baseball is a regular season game. I like the expanded playoffs because it gives chances to teams who wouldn't ever get them otherwise, but the league winner versus league winner was much more true to the game.

I was thinking much the same this morning. Were this 60 years ago, we'd be about to settle in to watch a great series between two great teams, the Cubs and the Red Sox, much like 60 years ago Bronx and Brooklyn faced off in a 7 game series in which Don Larsen did something or other. The current format offers more opportunity for excitement (and revenue, of course) but it takes away from the WS in a way that's untrue to the game, as you nicely put it.

It seems odd that more excitement is being generated this last weekend for the second-tier teams that are fighting for the wild card spot, than the superior teams who are in first place. But it certainly is exciting! Last night I embarrassed my poor son in a slightly fashionable Williamsburg restaurant when I kept my iPhone on mlb.tv during dinner, loudly upset at Carrera's double play and the balk call. Luckily he has some experience at it, though he may choose not to eat with me during late season games anymore.

I always forget that every game starts at the same time on the last day.

If we assume at this stage, with all teams being relatively equal, that every game is a 50/50, then playing one game gives you a 50% chance to advance, playing two gives you a 25% chance.

I thought so too - this whole playoff thing is very unusual and hard to wrap my head around, but apparently, if there's a 3-way tie, it works like this (assuming the report was accurate, and that Baltimore chose to be "C"):
-Tigers (B) at Jays (A) (i.e. in Toronto). Winner is 1st wildcard
-loser of Tigers/Jays plays in Baltimore (C). Winner is 2nd wildcard
-wildcard game

For A/B, if you win the first game, then you're in the wildcard, (a must-win game). Similar scenario for loser of A/B vs C: winner goes to wildcard. It's the loser of A/B that is allowed to lose that game and still get into the wildcard by winning the next one.

I guess it comes down to where you expect to win/lose, your bullpen, your rotation, etc.

If you figure you have 2 really strong starters and not much else, you might pick to be C (if your choice is B or C), since presumably, A vs. B will use their best (available) starters and all their bullpen on that game. That means, loser of A/B is pretty worn out, and you get an extra day of rest and the home game to use your best starter, rested bullpen, etc against a somewhat demoralized team. Especially since the wildcard game's the next day after that.

So, let's look at one scenario:
Tigers win Monday (if they're getting in, they have to win Sunday and Monday, and for this scenario, both Toronto and Baltimore have to lose on Sunday). Toronto and Baltimore get a day off.
Tuesday, Tigers at Jays. Jays win (hopefully!). If it was a close game, I'm sure Detroit used their bullpen, etc. Baltimore gets another day off.
Wednesday, Tigers at Orioles. Detroit's been in "must win" mode since Saturday - they're starting to get a little winded at this point. Jays have the day off.
Thursday, Winner of Tigers/Orioles at Jays - Jays had a rest day
Friday, ALDS starts

So, if by some chance the Tigers lose to the Jays, beat the Orioles in this scenario, and then beat the Jays in the "real" wildcard game, they've been in "must-win" mode since Saturday at least, for Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with no rest, while the ALCS opponent has been resting since Sunday.. If either Toronto or Baltimore makes it, they've had at least 2 off days before the ALDS on Friday. That extra rest day may be the reason the Orioles chose to be "C".

(disclaimer: I think I got it right, based on what I read, but I may have monumentally messed it up as well)

It's not just Boston and Seattle... almost every away game has a sea of blue... I'm continually amazed how many Jays fans show up for away games in every single city... especially in the Rust Belt where locals can no longer afford baseball tickets. It's like a less-evil version of the away-game fan support the Yankees enjoy.

People are also travelling to Toronto to see games. I flew into Toronto from Ottawa for Thursday's game, on a plane that originated in Halifax. The fellow beside me from Halifax was flying in for the game as well, as were the two young women in the row across. The attendant estimated that 40% of the passengers on the flight were going to the game.

For Baltimore, if they care more about revenue from home playoff games than about winning, it's probably +ev to play it the way they did. You get 1 home sellout plus let's say a 50% chance of the real playoffs, as opposed to 0 plus a 75% chance, and really those odds oversell the difference since they assume no home field advantage and don't reflect any of the stuff vw said. If you think a deep playoff run is likely, I guess you should be more inclined to take the two games.

If it were my call I'd happily play the Jays in Toronto either way. I believe (but obviously can't prove) Rogers Centre has given them a negative HFA this month, and it'll stay that way unless/until they reach the ALDS.

Here's a simple question, but I can't find the answer online:  do MLB teams get any share of the ticket revenue at their away games?

I thought they did.  Maybe I am wrong, because I can't find it confirmed anywhere.  But if the policy exists, it would be intended to reward teams that boost the attendance of their away games, because their fans travel to other cities to see them play.   Obviously this happens often with the Yankees and Red Sox, and now it happens with the Jays too. 

I know there is revenue-sharing for television revenue, but somehow I thought there was a (very reduced) form of revenue-sharing for away games too.  Or maybe I'm thinking of another sport.

Anyone know the answer?

" do MLB teams get any share of the ticket revenue at their away games?"


Yes. It's a minority share, which without looking it up is 15% if I recall correctly.

CF, the Blue Jays are one of the worst road draws in baseball. It's not because Toronto fans don't travel, it's because the locals are disinterested. Changing the ratio for visitors up would hurt the Jays.

"....It seems odd that more excitement is being generated this last weekend for the second-tier teams that are fighting for the wild card spot, than the superior teams who are in first place....."

I'm a bit puzzled by the terms "superior" and "second-tier" when the playoffs haven't begun.  If a wild-card team beats a "superior" team for the World Series (which has often happened), do you reject the results?  What if the "superior" team finished just 3 or 4 games ahead of the wild-card team in the regular season, and then gets defeated 4-0 or 4-1 in a playoff series -- which one is superior and which one is truly "second tier"? 

The idea that the World Series winner might not be the truly "superior" team is perhaps a tempting notion to cling to, especially if we don't like the results of the playoffs.  But I think we can only judge the winner by the existing rules, not by some alternative system of guessing which team is "superior." 

One team might seem "superior" in April or July, but then it performs worse in October.  Do we decide that the April results (which influence the regular-season record) are more important than the October results?  If we privilege the results from April to September (rather than October), aren't we using an arbitrary set of beginning and end points?  Why should superiority be determined by results that begin (arbitrarily) in April, when a team's personnel might be very different by October?  Is it even the same team if the personnel has changed significantly since April?

"....the Blue Jays are one of the worst road draws in baseball...."

I'm not sure if that's true any more.  I would like to see the 2016 numbers.  From a June 21 article, for example, I found this:

If you factor in the attendance at Blue Jays road games this season, then the team’s growing reach becomes that much more impressive. When combining home and away games, they currently have the highest average attendance in the American League.

Source:  http://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/canadian-baseball-network-articles//108-blue-jays-attendance-has-come-a-long-way-in-a-short-time

According to the data here, the Jays road attendance jumped from 29th in the majors last season to 16th in the majors this season:

http://proxy.espn.com/mlb/attendance?sort=awayAvg

I think I got it, the Orioles don't want Chris Davis to break the single season strike out record. He's only six back so an extra game could do it.

Seriously though, they could put out a b team for the first game and still have 30%+ chance to win. Don't understand not taking the extra game.

It seems odd that more excitement is being generated this last weekend for the second-tier teams that are fighting for the wild card spot, than the superior teams who are in first place.

I don't really think that's odd. That's just the way MLB has set things up. It's sort of like the NHL and NBA, where you get down to the end of the regular season in late March/early April and the most excitement is surrounding the teams who are in floating around the 8th seed in each conference, instead of the teams at the top.

CF, if you go to espn mlb attendance and select road average, you can select any of the years from 2001 to 2016. The road attendance has varied from 24th to 29th in baseball. I am glad it is up to its high point of 16th this year, but I see little to dispute in what I wrote.

"....I see little to dispute in what I wrote..."

You don't?  You claimed that the Jays "are one of the worst road draws in baseball."   That's obviously not true (even if it was true in the past).  You used the present tense, not the past tense, in your statement.  The Jays are middle-of-the-pack this year: 16th of 30 teams in road attendance.  So your statement was incorrect.

Well if we're going to squeeze our buttocks about this, 16 out of 30 is still on the worst side of the ledger. One of the [15] worst is still correct.

Bravo! If you're that desperate to argue pettily I'll not bother responding to you in the future. Perhaps you can find a Clintonian to argue the meaning of 'is'.

Middle-of-the-pack (16 of 30) is very different from "one of the worst."   If you don't see the difference, you're right, there's no point in bothering to discuss it.

Moreover, the whole point is that Blue Jays fans have begun traveling in large numbers to road games, and this is a 2016 phenomenon, not something that happened in the past.  This caused a dramatic rise in Jays road attendance, from 29th (last season) to 16th (this season).    If the Jays are getting a slice of that road-attendance revenue, it's worth noting that this revenue is increasing.

Not sure why you're so keen to dismiss any discussion of this data point.

If I am understanding it correctly, if there is a 3 way tie for the WC spot, then the Jays/Tigers play one game, and the winner of that game wins one of the WC spots. The loser of that game will then go to Baltimore for one game, and the winner of that gets the other WC. The two winners will then play the WC game.

In other words, in that scenario, the Jays and Tigers both have an advantage because they could technically lose a game and still have a chance to advance by playing another game, while the Orioles only have one chance.

That is a puzzling move by the O's. Given how random baseball is, I'd rather have two games than one in that scenario. If you win one, you're good. If you lose one, you'll get another chance the next day. The Orioles must be very confident in their home field.

Pretty sure my last day of work won't look like this.

Pretty sure my last day of work won't look like this.

I'm watching online, so I didn't see the pre-game, but I'm pretty sure not a single day of my life will look like this..

"Pretty sure my last day of work won't look like this."

apparently, neither will Bautista's or Encarnacion's.

As they take the early lead against Detroit, the Braves have indeed been playing a whole lot better lately and it's because they've quite unexpectedly turned into an offensive powerhouse. After averaging 3.77 runs per game through the end of July, they've been scoring 5.23 per game over the last two months. Go figure.

Why would they look the same? Ortiz won three World Series. Jose and EE didn't.

Another promising chance gone due to base-running mistakes..

yep. neither did Halladay and Delgado. buncha bums. couldn't get rid of them fast enough.

The question was send off looking like that. Not that they wouldn't get a send off. Even if they do go elsewhere like Halladay they'll have a chance to retire as a Jay and have a ceremony. It's just that ceremonies when it involves titles is much different than being a good player. Plus I think odds are one gets resigned, likely Jose to a short term deal.

Pretty sure my last day of work won't look like this.

These retirement tours are actually quite rare, although the recent memory of Derek Jeter's may have made us forget that a bit. Even the all-time greats typically end their career wearing some uniform you're not accustomed to them wearing. Or suddenly deciding at some point in mid-May that enough is enough. Anyway, when was the last such tour before Jeter's? Ripken, I'm thinking.

whatever, one franchise consistently sends off the faces of their franchise in style, the other tosses them in the trash. year after year.

Another promising chance gone due to base-running mistakes.

It was an aggressive send by Rivera, and it took a great play on the relay by Bogaerts to get the out. But yeah, good teams will make those plays on defense.

You mean like Lester or Manny or Damon or any number of other players Boston let go or traded? You put way too much emotion into something that is a business. The players and teams know it yet fans are fooled into thinking narratives like loyalty and such matter. They don't. Halladay was traded. Alomar left as well. Yet years later they are happy members of the Jays family despite not ending their careers here. I somehow don't think EE and Jose will be any different.

whatever, one franchise consistently sends off the faces of their franchise in style, the other tosses them in the trash. year after year.

It's a little easier to do when they retire with one of the best seasons all-time by a DH, everyone knows it's coming, and it's at home and that player is still playing for you and you've already clinched the division.

A little harder to have a retirement ceremony when the player is playing for a team in a different league, and/or decides to retire in the off-season, and/or retires 3-5 seasons after last playing for your team and/or you currently are losing 85 games..

one franchise consistently sends off the faces of their franchise in style

Hmm. The opportunities just don't come around very often. We didn't see this for Pedro or Clemens or Fisk or Dewey or Manny or Nomar, who all wandered around playing for other teams before calling it a day. Jim Rice never played anywhere else, but he didn't get this treatment. Bringing the guy back for a day after he's retired for an "official retirement" doesn't seem remotely similar, to me anyway. (Sorry, I just think that's silly.) So I think the only time the Red Sox did this before was for Yaz, and that was more than 30 years ago. I dunno. Did they make a big deal out of Wakefield?

For you young 'uns - some old guy service! Yastrzemski and Bench both retired the same year. Bench just revelled in the full Ortiz-type retirment tour, honoured at every ball park he visited, soaking it all up. Yastrzemski tried desperately to pretend it was all business as usual every day. Just another working day. They did give him a huge send-off at his last Fenway game.

Well sure that's uglyones point. He wants them to end his career here. And i'd be perfectly happy to do that if they take the same contract path Ortiz has since 2011. Which has been two year contracts with an option year. So if either Jose or EE does that than sure bring them back. There is only so bad a two year contract can be. So ball is back in their corner. But maybe they want to get "paid". Surprisingly that's not something Ortiz ever told the Sox.

"Green light swinging", Buck? The count was 3-2.

That's Jose's game. On 3-2, he's hacking.

Another long, brutal season of B&P. They are the .190 hitters of broadcasting.

It's not just that Upton stinks, but that he looks so bad doing it.

and Martin and Tulo really should have been swapped in the order already.

It's not just that Upton stinks, but that he looks so bad doing it.

Agreed.. That loop/hitch in his swing just looks so bad..

Buck sounded like Devon's HR was going to be a foul ball..

Devon's power outage the last while has been a bit concerning. Would be a good sign for his health if it started coming back - a nice homer and a ringing alley double this series is a relief to see.

"Buck sounded like Devon's HR was going to be a foul ball.."

from twitter: "Is Buck cheering for a Sox win today?"

I mean, Buck's love for the sox does know no bounds...

I always use the opposition feeds on mlb.com.  I find they're usually of superior quality to the local product and the variety of views you get from series to series is refreshing as well.

Price gets the ERA under 4 and bids a hasty retreat.

that was a sweet DP. love the way Travis turns that.

Good time for a 9 pitch inning.

Devon's power outage the last while has been a bit concerning.

Indeed. That was his first HR since August 6 - he hit 10 in his first 56 games, and none in his next 44. He was getting his hits - he batted .304 in those 44 games - but with no power, and of course he doesn't draw many walks. So yes, good to see.

You want your big hitters to deliver in the biggest games. Yesterday it was Pillar, today Travis. The big guys have not delivered other than a hit here or there.

especially with his shoulder issue being exactly the kind of thing that would sap power. Could be he was injured, or could be he was just feeling sore and was subconsciously taking it easy on the shoulder, but now feels better after having an all-clear from the MRI. Or could have just been random variation.

I really wish we had given pompey a shot down the stretch.

Saunders/Upton/Carrera is depressing me.

Trout gets RBI number 100, just to appease those voters to whom that makes a difference. I'm thinking it won't be enough. Betting on Betts.

Yesterday it was Pillar, today Travis. The big guys have not delivered other than a hit here or there.

And Bautista on Friday. Wasted in the bullpen implosion.

The Braves just pinch hit for Teheran who was mowing the Tigers down through 7 innings, with 12 K's. Now the Tigers get a couple of innings at the Braves bullpen.

amazes me how quickly and unreservedly those close calls get resolved the red sox way.

not to mention buck being clearly more excited about this HR than Travis'.

Technically, those type of calls should be obvious. There's no timing involved.

nothing obvious about a ball higher than the foul pole though.

Two men on.....and a double play from one of your best hitters

Huge AB for Martin here.. Potential winning run at 2nd. Orioles just won.

Might be Tulo for the season here..

A hit! A palpable hit!

kinda big.

hey are we bringing in grilli, cecil, or Biagini for the 8th?

I think that's more emotion than Tulo's shown all season combined..

For the 8th - I would hope Biagini? Depends a bit on who's up, though..

An RBI single? Aren't those for sissies?

hey are we bringing in grilli, cecil, or Biagini for the 8th?

Anyone but Grilli

Sanchez will go back out I think.

i thought i saw sanchez get the handshake but maybe not.

Sanchez will go back out I think.

I thought Gibby already gave him "the handshake"?

Leon and Benintendi due up. I expect to see Cecil.

Somebody hold me.

Cecil gets the call.

IMO the right move even if it backfires.

Last chance for the Tigers. Maybin grounds out. Here comes Miggy.

Cabrera single to right, J.D. Martinez batting. Romine pinch-running.

Cecil in Fenway is bad, bad, bad, bad, bad vibes. I'm a little surprised they didn't just let Sanchez handle the bottom of the order.

JD just struck out. Tigers down to last out.

Tigers down to their last out. Runner on 1st. Upton at the plate.

Martinez strikes out. Melvin Upton's brother for the Tigers' last chance.

Tigers lose! Now we're just playing for home field in the WC game!

tigers LOSE

Upton called out on strikes. No baseball tomorrow. Jays and Sox are playing for home field.

Tigers lose. Jays clinch at least 2nd WC.

I presume Liriano is getting loose for Ortiz. Makes sense, but he was actually the guy I wanted pitching on Tuesday.

Surprising to see J. Upton looking at 2 fastballs for strike 2 and 3. He's been crushing the ball lately.

Can't Liriano still pitch Tuesday, if he just gets loose/throws 10 pitches?

it was always going to be stroman on Tuesday on regular rest imo.

So do you use Osuna in the 9th now? I'd lean to not using him and saving him for Tuesday.

Geez, Ratboy is irritating. Big time defense from Donaldson there.

Tigers lose, so time to rest the bullpen?

that is some clutch D.

maybe just keep biagini in for the 9th.

clutch relief giuseppe!!!

Donaldson's play saved about a half a run, and possibly Liriano too.

I'd lean to not using him and saving him for Tuesday.

On the other hand, the Orioles have played .617 ball at Camden, .475 ball on the road. Which is considerably bigger than the average home-road split.

Gotta love it - Biagini, the rule 5 pick, doing a great job in a game that as far as he knew was a must win while he was on the mound. Who'd have thunk he'd be so important this year?

Btw, I expect Osuna in the 9th unless the Jays score 5 or more.

Tuesday is a home playoff game. 

It feels like those Little Leagues tournament when you have to use all your good pitchers to make it to the final where you lose 21-3.

Should be interesting.

why is pomeranz in? did he lose his spot to buchholz?


Buck just informed us that the playoff picture just happens to be resolving itself today for some strange reason.

In fairness to Buck - yeah, I know - but there were all kinds of ways today could have failed to settle things.

betts ortiz ramirez

here we go.

It's never easy. I guess this is why so many MLB managers have been alcoholics.

I did NOT want Ortiz' last AB to be with the game on the line...

the Orioles have played .617 ball at Camden, .475 ball on the road

This is true, and yet I don't really care. Recently the Jays have tended toward uninspired, stupid ball at home and moderately feisty ball on the road. I'm playing to win here - tanking is bad vibes - but not heartbroken if I lose.

You notice no Smoak in at first base. Gibbons hedging his bets in case they give up the lead.

With 1 out, no-one on, I'd think about walking Ortiz.. But that would cause rioting, the likes of which Boston has never seen...

Those 2 strikes were some of the loudest "Ohhh"s I've ever heard..

very smart pitches by osuna so far.

Osuna pitched two innings yesterday and just threw three straight balls to walk Ramirez. I'd look elsewhere to face Bogaerts.

First Boston team with three 30 HR 100 RBI guys and I thought - hey, wait a minute. The 1977 team had three guys hit 30 HR and four guys drive in 100. But okay, five different guys were involved.

They did it!

You really gotta love the two kids Sanchez and Osuna clutching up so much in the biggest game of the year.

Up to another kid to get it done on tuesday now.

All right, everyone. Breathe regular.

We just took 2/3 from the Red Sox IN BOSTON when the games mattered to both teams.. Gotta be a positive heading into the playoffs..

Well that was easy.

That'll team, that'll do.

... I guess for sentimental reasons it's nice to have at least one more guaranteed home game for Bautista and Encarnacion. Just in case, and just in case.

Nice win. You can see Sanchez getting a little bit craftier every time.

You got to credit Joe Biagini,too. From early in the season when we wondered if he deserved a spot on the roster to becoming one of our most reliable relievers.

We just did a HUGE favor to Cleveland.

The Red Sox probably didn't care that much whether they were home or away: they are 47-34 at home and 46-35 on the road.
The Indians couldn't have cared more: they are 53-28 at home, 41-39 on the road. Home field here was HUGE for them.

The Cubs should have flown Muni in for the celebration.

Sweet. A new banner for the top 2015 Wild Card and hopefully a batch more coming!

Relief!

Aaron Sanchez ends up leading the league in ERA, nosing out Verlander. Encarnacion and Ortiz tie for the league lead in RBIs.

Happy for the win & WC but the anemic offense is a major concern especially against an Oriole team that can score.

So in the end, it took 89 correctly-distributed wins to win the 1st wildcard..

Hope it's Liriano and not Stroman against the Orioles.

Tuesday is probably a pretty important game.

Very exciting couple of games. The hitting woes aside, lots of excellent performances to talk about:

- Sanchez's start
- Happ's start
- Osuna's pitching yesterday and today (balk aside)
- Biagini's pitching
- A few timely hits (Pillar, Carrera, Travis, Tulo) and some clutch defensive plays

The team deserves credit for digging deep and earning these past two wins. It's good that they have a day off to rest up (the bullpen and Donaldson especially) before Tuesday's game.

I'm a little worried about Osuna though. He's struck out only 1 hitter in last 7 appearances or something. He went from a lot of strikeouts and flyballs to no strikouts and a lot more grounders. It's weird.

2-0 in October. Can't complain about that -- especially the Red Sox at home. Let's go for three in a row!

Pretty amazing they win back to back one run games to seal up a playoff spot. The Jays finish 21-25 in one run games this year, which actually isn't terrible, for them.

I have a good feeling about starting either Stroman or Liriano on Tuesday. Might be better to go with Liriano, since he's a lefty and the Orioles have not hit lefties very well. If he doesn't have it, which is usually indicated early with him, then you can have Stro ready to go right in there.

So in the end, it took 89 correctly-distributed wins to win the 1st wildcard..

Yeah, but the Mets clinched yesterday with 87 and 88 would have been enough for the second wild card.

It wasn't all that long ago that the Cardinals won a WS after winning 83 games in the regular season.

The most surprising thing for me is not that they are in the playoffs.  I expected that.  But I never would have predicted that they lead the AL in least runs allowed. That's a pretty amazing turn around in our starting rotation.

As has been said a hundred times they made all the right decisions on starting pitching and most of them on relief (Storen and Chavez being the exceptions). Paired with a strong defense it kept them in games all year with the spotty offense. Now we just need a couple hot weeks out of our sluggers and we could go far.

Will be interesting to see if they go with Stroman or Liriano. I think Liriano is the better choice because Stroman has been murdered by Baltimorw this year and as a team the Orioles are about 30 points of WRC worse vs LH pitchers. But Stroman has been known to get up for big games so a tough decision.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewStoeten/status/782727610186997760/photo/1

Stroman had 4 starts against the Orioles this season:

A 3-0 Win in April (7 IP, 3 ER).
A 6-5 Loss in June (5.1 IP, 4 ER).
A 11-6 Loss 10 days later in June (3.2 IP, 7 ER)
A 4-0 Loss last Thursday (7 IP, 4 ER).
So... 23 IP, 31 H, 18 ER, 4 HR, 4 BB, 12 K.

Liriano won his only start against the O's last Wednesday (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K).

On the season, the Orioles hit .241 / .305 / /.401 against LH starters vs. .263 / .323 . / .461 against RH starters.

I think Liriano starts on Tuesday.

It's not just that Upton stinks, but that he looks so bad doing it.

Upton is a waste of space.  (At least Pompey got to score an important run.)

Whoof, what a weekend!  I lost weight just pacing around my living-room.  Especially sweet against Farrell et al though.   Tulo, Travis, Biagini, Pillar, Sanchez and Happ -- all heroes, especially Sanchez.   Even Zeke was acceptable.  Now if only our big bats can recover some effectiveness.  Jose seems close.  Don’t know about Donaldson:  he seems snakebit right now.  What a nice weekend.  What a wonderful pastime baseball is.  What a pleasure it is to be so relieved.  Chuck, don’t you agree that even B & P are wonderful too?   And what a fine manager Gibby is.  Even Kasi seems momentarily positive.  And Parker must be rejoicing somewhere.   There, there now

Orioles total line this year vs RHP: .263/.323/.461/.784
vs LHP: .234/.302/.390/.692 Pretty big difference.

Looking at their individual players' career splits, you see something very interesting. Their lefties, Davis, Kim and Alvarez, hit considerably better against righties, but righties Jones, Machado and Schoop, all have reverse splits and hit righties better as well. Only Hardy and switch hitter Wieters hit better vs lefties. Trumbo is very close to dead even. Given this, and the results for Stroman, Liriano against Baltimore this year, I agree that Liriano should get the call. If he struggles with his control, you have Stroman available, and I'm sure Estrada could give you some innings on 3 days rest.

I hope the Orioles throw Tillman on Tuesday. I'd take the Jays facing Tillman in a sudden death game at Skydome any day of the week.

Ubaldo scares me because he's thrown a lot of great games at the Jays, and he's pitched terrifically since returning to the rotation.

As mentioned, the Orioles have trouble against LHP, so I'd go with Liriano to start the game and have Stroman out of the pen in case he's needed.

Awesome win / celebration, especially Biagini's 'what's the postseason'? 

I'm marking papers.  A's for everyone.

30th Estrada
1st Happ
2nd Sanchez
3rd off (Liriano)
4th WC (stroman)
5th off
6th ALDS #1
7Th ALDS #2
8th off
9th ALDS #3
10th ALDS #4
11th off
12th ALDS #5
13th off
14th ALCS #1
15th ALCS #2
16th off
17th ALCS #3
18th ALCS #4
19th ALCS #5
20th off
21st ALCS #6
22nd ALCS #7
23rd off
24th off
25th WS #1
26th WS #2
27th off
28th WS #3
29th WS #4
30th WS #5
31st off
1st WS #6
2nd WS #7

So now the question is who do you put on the roster for the Wild Card game? If allowed I'd leave Estrada, Happ, & Sanchez off as they obviously wouldn't be used under pretty much any situation, same with Dickey. Thus a staff of Liriano, Stroman (one starts, other is first in if needed early), Osuna (hopefully Jays win going away), Biagini, Grilli, Cecil, Loup. I'd lean towards adding Barns as he might be good for batter or two.

For the hitters, obvious are likely starters Martin, Smoak, Travis, Tulo, Donaldson, Saunders, Pillar, Bautista, Encarnacion, with backups Barney, Carrera (likely will start in OF with Smoak on bench), Pompey (his speed is very useful), Upton (speed again), Navarro (ugh, but only Thole is an alternative).

That puts me at 21 (13 hitters, 8 pitchers) From what I can tell there are no rules on who has to be there other than on the 40 man on Sept 1st unless replacing an injured player. Given the roster can be shuffled right after the game I suspect the Jays will put on whoever might have a minor role to play. So I could see Thole being there so catchers can be ran for more than once if needed. More pitchers who will probably never get on the field too. Goins maybe for late inning defense somewhere if needed. Sucks that Benoit is out for now. Tepera then Schultz would be the next relievers added, maybe Dickey just in case of extra innings.

Then comes vs Texas. Sanchez game 1, Happ would get game 2, Lirano or Stroman game 3, other game 4, Sanchez game 5. Lines up Happ for game 1 in ALCS vs Boston or Cleveland (betting on Boston).

John, you forgot Estrada, who certainly will be in the rotation if they get to Texas. I'd also have him on the wild card game roster, as he'd be on 3 days rest and could easily pitch a few innings. As well, Sanchez, wouldn't be pitching game 1 vs Texas, as he'd be going on only 3 days rest. Happ and Estrada would get the 1st 2 games most likely, then Sanchez game 3. Liriano or Stroman for game 4, and back to Happ or Estrada for game 5, with the other available out of the pen.

My guess is Stroman is going to start the WC game, but his numbers are awful against the O's this season, and the O's have a lot of trouble against LHP. The Jays offense isn't exactly a monster this season either, so getting down early, especially against Baltimore's pen, is not an option.

Going with Liriano and then having Stroman in the pen in case of need is likely the highest probability for a win, IMO.

It's a shame Happ had to go Saturday. He would have been the perfect WC starter against that lineup.

And Parker must be rejoicing somewhere.

Am I ever. I might not even complain if the Jays retain Gibbons after this season. ;)

Ah yes, for some reason I thought there was another day off in there. No one goes with a 5 man rotation in the playoffs as you only need 4 but who do you pull of the current 5? Sanchez was probably the original plan but his 6+ no hit innings kind of tossed that in the toilet. I'm guessing last years ace in the playoffs, Stroman, is probably the next in line with Liriano an option too. Estrada, Happ not real options for the pen.

So then, Lirano/Storman splitting wild card, then Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Lirano/Stroman, Happ for ALDS would be my guess.

Apologies to all for the grossly over-optimistic assessment of this ballclub pre-season, as we joyfully enter the second season.

I got the offence completely wrong, and the forecasters did a much better job.  I used the average of ZIPS and Steamer to get the mean forecast wOBA and PAs for the year:

Player	Proj. wOBA	Act. wOBA	Proj.  PA	Act. PA
Bautista	.379	.355	555	515
Encarnacion	.372	.373	547	702
Donaldson	.367	.403	653	700
Tulowitzki	.333	.327	493	544
Colabello	.326	.121	404	32
Martin	.327	.322	454	535
Travis	.327	.337	404	432
Saunders	.321	.348	272	558
Smoak	.319	.309	374	341
Pillar	.310	.295	586	584
Navarro	.307	.204	268	36
Pompey	.298	.000	435	2
Carrera	.290	.301	333	310
Ceciliani	.286	.105	236	32
Upton Jr.	.281	.254	359	105
Thole	.274	.220	164	136
Goins	.271	.232	417	196
Barney	.271	.303	271	306

everything i know screams to pitch Stroman tommorrow, but then I look at tiny sample team v pitcher matchups and it gives me pause, which should be completely wrong but somehow feels right.

Agreed uglyone. Liriano is 'hot' right now and if he is on he is an ace quality pitcher. Stroman also is ace quality when on (as he was last year) but seems snakebit this year so I'd want him as the #1 guy out of the pen around inning 6 ideally, twice through the lineup for Lirano, then Stroman for the rest - of course, if Liriano is going well you leave him for as long as you can get away with.

Lets hope the Jays offense makes it all academic by mid-game. A 10-0 laugher would be nice.

You have to figure Britton will be available for 2 innings tomorrow. If the Jays don't have the lead by the 6th-7th it'll be trouble. If there were ever a time for the offense to break out early....

If it were just pitcher vs hitter or pitcher vs team numbers I wouldn't out much weight in them. I don't find that overly predictive. In this case though it's team vs handedness. And the fact is the Orioles are significantly worse against LHP. The Os against lefties are one of the worst teams in the majors.. Liriano is one and Stroman isn't. Simple enough there.

According to 538.com, the Jays are 57% favorites to beat the Orioles.

Anything can happen in a single game.  But I like the Jays chances. 

Much depends on the Jays offence, of course.  Some hitters need to get untracked.  They can't depend on the pitchers holding the opponents to 1 or 2 runs in every game.

I have to say:  the gloom-and-doom by several Bauxites after the first game of the Boston series was rather astounding.  Some people are always so eager to declare the season a failure.  Like generals who are always fighting the last war, they are today still fighting the wars of July 2015, when they were convinced that AA's trades were a disaster.

And a brief note to the guy in this thread who claimed that AA had "raped" the farm system:  please don't trivialize the serious issue of sexual assault by bringing it to your baseball discussions.  Thank you.

The Orioles have an extreme platoon preference for right-handed pitching, and it's not a one-season fluke.  Schoop and Jones have hit much better against RHPs over their careers.  Machado and Trumbo have been essentially square in their platoon differentials.  Kim is a much better hitter than Reimold.  Pearce and Rickard are injured.  Alvarez and Davis have extreme typical LHH splits over their careers. 

And a brief note to the guy in this thread who claimed that AA had "raped" the farm system:  please don't trivialize the serious issue of sexual assault by bringing it to your baseball discussions.  Thank you.

1000x this.

Liriano warming up yesterday probably suggests this decision has already been made, but I similarly would prefer a Liriano start, with Stroman in after a turn or two through the order.

Personally, I'd definitely have Happ in the bullpen too.  No reason he can't give you an inning.  Then Estrada/Sanchez/Happ for the first 3 games of the Texas series.

The 538 baseball assessments are a bit weird.  They have the National League with a 55% chance of winning the World Series, despite the AL being clearly the better league during the season and having the home-field advantage for the World Series.  I'll grant that there is greater disparity between the top and bottom teams in the NL than in the AL, but the totals don't pass the smell test for me. 

"And a brief note to the guy in this thread who claimed that AA had "raped" the farm system: please don't trivialize the serious issue of sexual assault by bringing it to your baseball discussions. Thank you.

1000x this."

Before you heap on the indignation, you guys both need to get dictionaries, or at least do someone the courtesy of a google search before firing away. It's actually quite rude to accuse someone of trivializing sexual assault, especially when all they have done is use a proper english world in a context in which it has long been used.

Still probably shouldn't use that word in any regard. I've stopped using the term gypped for similar reasons.

Personally, I wouldn't use the phrase "rape of the land" although others still do.  I don't like the connotation of ruin that (by implication) applies to sexual assault victims.  And as for farm systems, it's definitely over-the-top at a minimum.  GMs can raid farm systems or ruin them, but any reference to sexual assault in this context attaches a level of seriousness to GM moves that isn't there. 

2014-2016 as SP (i.e. career numbers for sanchez and stro) with WAR = avg of fip and ra9 war

Sanchez: 41gs, 6.3ip/gs, 74era-, 94fip-, 95xfip-, 4.2war/32gs
Stroman: 56gs, 6.3ip/gs, 91era-, 82fip-, 81xfip-, 3.9war/32gs
Happ: 89gs, 5.8ip/gs, 90era-, 96fip-, 98xfip-, 3.2war/32gs
Estrada: 75gs, 6.0ip/gs, 93era-, 113fip-, 116xfip-, 2.6war/32gs
Liriano: 89gs, 5.7ip/gs, 99era-, 100fip-, 91xfip-, 2.1war/32gs

2nd Half 2016

Sanchez: 12gs, 6.1ip/gs, 71era-, 84fip-, 101xfip-, 4.7war/32gs
Happ: 14gs, 5.9ip/gs, 69era-, 91fip-, 96xfip-, 4.3war/32gs
Stroman: 14gs, 6.3ip/gs, 86era-, 81fip-, 71xfip-, 4.0war/32gs
Estrada: 13gs, 5.5ip/gs, 100era-, 98fip-, 116xfip-, 2.6war/32gs
Liriano: 12gs, 5.7ip/gs, 95era-, 103fip-, 82xfip-, 1.9war/32gs

Liriano wTOR: 8gs, 5.9ip/gs, 62era-, 90fip-, 85xfip-, 3.8war/32gs

just to muddy the waters further.

all they have done is use a proper english world in a context in which it has long been used.

If I was wrong on that (IE - that's the context in which it was written), I apologize, sincerely.  I would then amend my comment to suggest that for the vast, vast majority of current english users, this word implies something that was not apparently intended.

Personally, as noted below, I would never use this word in the context in which you suggest simply because I would expect that most listeners would hear it in the manner in which the vast majority of people would understand it today.

It's gotta be Liriano. All the arguments for Stroman basically boil down to sentimentality, and no amount of warm fuzzies is worth as much as the knowledge that Hyun Soo Kim isn't starting.

I would be curious to look into why exactly all the O's righties are so effective against RHP. They certainly had no difficulty at all squaring Stroman up last time. Granted, Stroman was clearly on a mission to go as deep into the game as possible, which will regress your rate stats toward mediocrity and make it hard to shut a major-league lineup out. Still, Liriano is on a serious hot streak, he seems to have added some 2s/4s fastball separation a la Happ and started missing more bats as a result, and if things start going south for him in the second inning you can always go to plan B.

"All the arguments for Stroman basically boil down to sentimentality"

Well, no, they all boil down to Stroman being the (much) better pitcher.

While the argument for Liriano is "hot streak" and "small sample matchup stats".

BA did their midwest league top-20 today and again the Jays have a top-10 prospect in every league they're in so far - this time it's #9 Sean Reid-Foley. A bit low imo but the interesting thing is he was even better a level up this year in the same number of innings - so he could make 2 top 10s this year.

Jon Harris came in at #13.

(p.s. I missed mentioning that Patrick Murphy came in at #12 for the NWL).

Our...er....PLUNDERED system is looking alright.



and hey for my good buddy Parker - Harris ranked #13 in the Midwest League, while your boy Dillon Tate didnt even crack the top-20 for the Sally (both A level).


The ranks so far:

MWL: #9 S.Reid-Foley, #13 J.Harris
NWL: #6 J.Woodman, #8 J.Maese, #12 P.Murphy
APP: #1 V.Guerrero
GCL: #4 B.Bichette

46 Orioles starts (~1700 PA) against LHP with 87 OPS+ (vs. 105 OPS+ against RHP) is a very significant sample size though. They're the worst team in the AL against LHP.

I'll certainly concede that Stroman is a better pitcher at this point, but I haven't seen any statistics that makes me feel that he's a better choice to START a one-game playoff. I think he should still pitch though - he's the best choice for "middle relief" until the game can be put in the hands of Osuna, Cecil, and Grilli...

it's not a tiny sample, true, but it's not that big one, either.

if we look at say the last 3yrs their current roster does hit about 10% better against RH (103) than LH (92). that's a pretty good sample.

but most stats would suggest that stroman is at least 10% better than Liriano, and probably more.

but like I said the hotness and recency arguments definitely make me think thrice - I mean just look at the last outing for both against BAL.

It's the platoon splits. Every single spot in Baltimore's lineup except Hardy and possibly Wieters is effectively lefthanded. Against this team you can start the lefty with the wipeout slider who was hopeless ten weeks ago. Or you can start the righty sinkerballer. To think that Stroman's a better bet requires a ton of faith in him as a pitcher - or a bull-headed insistence that Liriano's May stats are relevant, damnit.

How much better would the RHP have to be than the LHP for people to go the other way? Like, if you're an O's fan and the other team is deciding between Carlos Rodon and Corey Kluber, who do you want to see?

""or a bull-headed insistence that Liriano's May stats are relevant, damnit. "

If you take a look at the SP stats I posted above, it's not just about May - whether you look at last 3yrs or at this year's 2nd half or at projections.....Stroman looks significantly better.

either way, all we know for sure is that Gibbons will be torn to shreds if we lose this game, no mattee which guy he picks.

I am becoming convinced that Liriano is the right move after seeing the L/R splits for Baltimore. This seems statistically significant. My guess though is that we go with Stroman and that he will be good. I think the game will come down to whether the Jays hit or not.  I think they will. I think having this day off will help a ton.

Famous last words, but please let it be Tillman, for the same reasons that my Orioles fan doppelganger is saying please let it be Stroman.

I think the bats just need to take a bit less of an... entitled?... that's not the right word... approach. No blindfolded swings in fastball counts.

Liriano does have a much longer track record of success, despite not being consistent about it.

Now that the regular season is in the books time to look at what the Jays did vs all-time Jays.

Donaldson: 5th best WAR ever (last year was the Jays best ever), 2nd most runs scored in a season (tied with himself from last year, 12 behind Shawn Greens record), 7th most walks ever (Bautista, McGriff, Delgado, Olerud had more walks), 7th most times on base,

Encarnacion: 6th most HR ever by a Jay (tied with Delgado 2003 and EE 2012 and Green 1999), 5th most RBI ever (3 Delgado seasons and Bell's MVP), 4th most DP's hit into

Saunders: 3rd most K's ever

Martin: 7th most K's ever

Bautista: 6th most DP's hit into

---

Happ: 4th most wins ever (8th time 20 wins reached), 5th best winning percentage

Sanchez: 3rd best Winning Percentage (Lamp's perfect 11-0 can't be beat, Price was 900 last year, Sanchez 882 this year)

Estrada: 8th best hits per 9 IP

Osuna: 5th highest save total ever (surprise: Duane Ward is the only guy over 40 for saves here)

Dickey: 10th most losses ever

Trust me, I am not trying to trivialize sexual assault, but if you're going to protest language that makes use of violent metaphors in sport, you're going to go down a long rabbit hole.

What about when so-and-so 'murders' lefties or 'kills' righties?

Or when we hope for the Jays to 'slaughter' the Orioles

Or even the term 'blow out' could be seen as insensitive.

When a team 'sucks' it's not referring to lollipops and could be construed as homophobic.

We're all adults here of reasonable intelligence. I think we understand metaphors.

John, wouldn't Clemens season here be number one for the Jays? Or do you just mean position players?

I apologize to whoever for my non-PC terminology.

We're all adults here of reasonable intelligence. I think we understand metaphors.

Also, I wish that was accurate here.

Time to celebrate this thread getting to 400 posts with a nice #hottake. There are few pitchers with more raw talent than Stroman but Liriano might be one of them and he stands a decent chance of being a better pitcher in 2017.

If you want to be offended by something, you will. You'll search far and wide to find negative connotations in everything you read. As Super Bluto said, we're all adults who are cognizant of metaphors here.

If you're the victim of sexual assault, that is an awful thing to be forced to endure, and few would be more empathetic to that than I.

Whether it's Stroman or Liriano with the start tomorrow, I'm sure the Jays will make the right decision. It's the bullpen that worries me, not the SP.

I think the bats just need to take a bit less of an... entitled?... that's not the right word... approach. No blindfolded swings in fastball counts.

How about looking at it positively?  "Disciplined aggression" is what you want, I think.  It's a frame of mind that allows the hitter to drive the ball up the gap the opposite way if the pitch calls for that.  I have been missing the Donaldson line drives over the right-centerfield wall- is there a prettier sight in baseball?

So does our fighting-tooth-and-nail-in-close-scoring-games over the last bit of the season serve as better or worse prep for the playoffs than our blowing-out-everyone-in-laughers-every-game prep last year?

I don't think either matters. To me the only things that matter right now are the health of the main hitters (who are clearly hurting) and the bullpen. I think the starters will be okay, it is just if we can get a couple weeks of effective production from guys like Donaldson and Martin and if the added time between games helps some of the weary bullpen guys. If Donaldson continues to hit like he has the month of September it is going to be very hard to go deep.

... whichever one is more likely to lead to disciplined aggression tomorrow night?

i think everyone missed the fact that Donaldson was actually good down the stretch, after taking that game off after the Boston series: 78pa, .961ops, 157wrc+

Sure and when you add the rest of the month he's at 117 WRC for the month. However even that good half of the month is lower than his average the last couple years. I think the best way for the Jays to do well this offseason is if 2/3 of Donaldson, EE and Jose can have a stretch of 160+ WRC for a week or two. We saw last year just how unbeatable the Jays are when they get hot.

The Jays playoff hopes (in the WC game especially) will depend on the offense. The issue with Baltimore is they have a great bullpen, so if the Jays are trailing after 5 or 6, then it will be a tough hole to climb out of. The offense will need to hit Tillman (or Ubaldo) and hit him early. If it becomes a bullpen game, then the Jays don't have the horses to compete with the Orioles in that area barring a lot of luck.

If there is one game where the bats need to wake up, it's Tuesday. In a five or seven game series you can live with a bad game, but not in the WC game.

Oops should have said that hot streak was his average the last couple years. And just doing that of course would be great. But I think for the Jays to go deep they need a couple of those 5 core guys hitting 2-6 to be hot. And for guys like Josh and Edwin that means a 180 WRC. I just recall last August where EE and Donaldson were on fire and carried the team. They were both above 200 WRC that month (EE above 250)

Jays playoffs hopes will also depend on their pitching, weirdly enough.

Just looking at Fangraphs' "last 14days" split:


Bautista 182
Donaldson 149
Carrera 121
Encarnacion 118
Pillar 102
Tulowtizki 77
Martin 72
Travis 65
Saunders 64

Smoak 88
Upton 5
Barney 94
Navarro -22

as has been the case most of the year - it's not so much about there not being hot bats in the lineup, just that there's just too many black holes in the lineup at any given time.

Maybe we can consider the Stroman/Liriano choice from the Baltimore angle:

Ubaldo's 1st 4 starts against TOR this year: 14.1ip, 9.42era

Ubaldo's last start against TOR: 6.2ip, 0.00era

and now we are scared of facing Ubaldo (?).

"Jays playoffs hopes will also depend on their pitching, weirdly enough."


Their defense and baserunning too, oddly enough.

The pitching hasn't been the problem this season, so while obviously they'll need good pitching in the post season, it's at least been a strength of the team's this season and lately. If they pitch like they have been for most of the year, then they'll be fine. The offense is a different story, especially the September version of it.

Various sources reporting Stroman starts.  Here's hoping he gets pulled before he gets into trouble, rather than after.  With Liriano in the pen, and presumably Happ available for an inning if you wanted to do that, no reason to let Stroman face the order for the 3rd time.

Sounds like Tillman gets the nod for them.

I'll definitely say I'm glad we were debating Stroman/Liriano instead of Tillman/Jimenez.

Stroman is the confirmed WC starter. Not a fan of this one, but expected it.

Well that first number kinda hides something uo. He had an appearance where he went 1/3 of an inning and gave up 5 runs. So that makes the remaining 14 IP there a lot worse. Take that out and its 10 ER in 14 innings which isn't great but isn't a 9 ERA either.

Would have preferred Liriano for all the reasons already mentioned.

And I'll add the highly unscientific reason that the last time Liriano was throwing to Martin in a Wild Card game he pitched well, Russ hit a home run, and they won. Grilli even pitched a scoreless ninth. If you're looking for a blueprint...well maybe not the Grilli thing.

still awful, though.

but if we're gonna go granular then Stro happened to face BAL twice in the middle of the stretch where he was awful against everyone - in those 2 he averaged 4.2ip with an 11.00era. His start early in the year and his last start he went 7ip and gave up 3er both times.....though because the bullpen was beat up he did go out and give up a 4th run in the 8th last time out.

Count me in the Liriano camp as to who I think should start, but the biggest advantage to having Liriano in the pen might be that throws form the left side. The pen certainly lacks more left handed options and having Liriano in a higher leverage might be an advantage.

Like mostly everybody else, i'd prefer a short leash

Disappointed to see them choose Stroman, but I suppose it was to be expected. Given how poorly Baltimore hits lefties, and how well Liriano has been pitching, I think Liriano has a better chance of coming up with a big game. I expect Stroman will give up 3 or 4 runs in his 6 or 7 innings, and it might be too much for the offense to overcome. Britton will probably be used for 2 innings if the Orioles have a small lead. The hitters had better do something against Tillman.

If all those three things happen in tomorrow's game, I'd say the chances are good that the Jays win the game. Unless Liriano is in because Stroman was left in too long.

This game really couldn't be more of a coin flip, but those seem like better odds of advancing than the team had at the moment before the bat-flip.

I would have gone with Liriano.

Perhaps of greater import is that Baltimore's going with Tillman. It's imperative they hit him and get a lead by the time the 6th inning rolls around.

Given that the Orioles offense is outperforming the Jays offense and the Orioles superior pen - Baltimore has to feel pretty good about their chances.

A wild card game is often a bullpen game. I wouldn't be surprised if Tillman only goes through the rotation once.

On paper, starting with Stroman and quickly pulling him for Liriano would force the O's to switch out their lefties or lose the platoon advantage. I'm not expecting that. 

Stroman hasn't won a game since mid August and lost 5 or his last 6 starts.
I'm just going to watch it as the Bautista/Encarnation curtain game.

In his next-to-last start, against the Yankees, Stroman's line was as follows:

7 1 0 0 3 5 (game score 77)

Does it really matter that the bullpen, not Stroman, got the W in that start?

Marcus Stroman will be just fine as WC Starter.
September 29th verses Baltimore: Loss: 7.0, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB 3 SO. The Offense failed to show up.
September 24th verses New York: NDW: 7.0, 1 H, 3 BB, 5 SO. The Offense showed up late.
September 18th at Los Angeles (AL): Loss: 6.0, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO. The Offense failed to show up.
This entire Season has never been about the Pitching, never about the Defense, never about the Bullpen. It's been about the Offense, the Offense and nothing else.

How about a poll question:

Who should start the 2016 AL wild card game for the Blue Jays?

a) Stroman
b) Liriano
c) other

* = active roster only

Full Season

Tillman: 30gs, 5.7ip/gs, 88era-, 97fip-, 107xfip-, 3.3awar/32gs
Stroman: 32gs, 6.4ip/gs, 102era-, 86fip-, 80xfip-, 3.1awar/32gs

Jimenez: 25gs, 5.3ip/gs, 120era-, 97fip-, 108xfip-, 1.3awar/32gs
Liriano: 29gs, 5.6ip/gs, 114era-, 119fip-, 102xfip-, 0.5awar/32gs

BAL RP*: 483.2ip, 64era-. 80fip-, 91xfip-, 1.2awar/65ip
TOR RP*: 438.2ip, 86era-, 87fip-, 89xfip-, 0.8awar/65ip

BAL OFF*: 5.1r/gm, .296babip, 101wrc+
TOR OFF*: 5.1r/gm, .291babip, 101wrc+


Second Half

Tillman: 11gs, 5.3ip/gs, 103era-, 96fip-, 115xfip-, 2.3awar/32gs
Stroman: 14gs, 6.3ip/gs, 86era-, 81fip-, 71xfip-, 4.0awar/32gs

Jimenez: 8gs, 6.6ip/gs, 56era-, 82fip-, 94xfip-, 6.2awar/32gs
Liriano: 12gs, 5.7ip/gs, 95era-, 103fip-, 82xfip-, 1.9awar/32gs

BAL RP*: 213.0ip, 69era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 1.1awar/65ip
TOR RP*: 220.0ip, 91era-, 92fip-, 87xfip-, 0.7awar/65ip

BAL OFF*: 4.4r/gm, .265babip, 88wrc+
TOR OFF*: 4.5r/gm, .283babip, 94wrc+


Last 30 days:

Tillman: 4gs, 4.8ip/gs, 88era-, 90fip-, 122xfip-, 2.4awar/32gs
Stroman: 5gs, 6.2ip/gs, 75era-, 85fip-, 90xfip-, 4.8awar/32gs

Jimenez: 5gs, 7.0ip/gs, 54era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 6.4awar/32gs
Liriano: 4gs, 6.2ip/gs, 34era-, 78fip-, 72xfip-, 6.4awar/32gs

BAL RP*: 92.0ip, 41era-, 75fip-, 86xfip-, 1.5awar/32gs
TOR RP*: 88.0ip, 108era-, 98fip-, 91xfip-, 0.1awar/32gs

BAL OFF*: 4.0r/gm, .263babip, 87wrc+
TOR OFF*: 3.7r/gm, .287babip, 91wrc+

Dan Szymborski at ESPN thinks Stroman in lieu of Liriano is a "very poor idea" and promises an article in the morning explaining why.

Dan's zips likes Stro considerably more than it does Liriano.

Wild Card Roster:

SP Stroman
RH Osuna, Biagini, Grilli, Tepera, Estrada, Feldman
LH Liriano, Cecil, Loup

2B Travis
3B Donaldson
1B Encarnacion
DH Bautista
C Martin
SS Tulowitzki
RF Saunders
CF Pillar
LF Carrera

UT Smoak
OF Upton, Pompey
IF Barney, Goins
C Navarro

Poll now live as per request.

How much of the decision to give Stroman the ball tomorrow night is based on the next five-ten years and a desire to show loyalty to a guy the Jays hope will be a rotation mainstay for years to come, rather than a cold-eyed calculation as to which pitcher is more likely to stymie the Orioles in a one-game showdown?  I don't think there's much doubt that the match-up favours Liriano, but if it's basically a coin-toss game either way they may have decided showing faith in Stroman will pay greater future dividends.  Kind of like using the deadline to simultaneously add prospects and talent to the major league roster. 

Feldman hasn't pitched in 2 weeks. We only see him if the game goes over 40 innings.

Dan said it quite clearly. Orioles hit like the Cubs against RHP and the Phillies vs LHP. You can acknowledge Stroman is the better starter on average while saying this is a bad matchup.

My mind is waffling between two alternatives here. One is he comes out great and shuts the Orioles down. The other is he gets babiped to death and gives up 4-5.

My thought was similar to Four Seamers. This decision is as much about PR as anything else. To show confidence in their young pitcher.

or maybe they think Stroman is a much better pitcher.

becaue, you know, he is.

Yeah I think this move is definitely motivated by showing loyalty to Stroman. The match-up doesn't favor him at all, and if he pitches to contact against a power lineup, then there's a chance he's going to get hit hard, but can't do anything about it now except hope he has a good start.

Tillman pitching like he did against the Jays in 2015 rather than 2016 would certainly help the Jays chances.

sigh.

only in Toronto could choosing the better pitcher be treated like a conspiracy.

How much of the decision to give Stroman the ball tomorrow night is based on the next five-ten years and a desire to show loyalty to a guy the Jays hope will be a rotation mainstay for years to come, rather than a cold-eyed calculation as to which pitcher is more likely to stymie the Orioles in a one-game showdown? I don't think there's much doubt that the match-up favours Liriano, but if it's basically a coin-toss game either way they may have decided showing faith in Stroman will pay greater future dividends. Kind of like using the deadline to simultaneously add prospects and talent to the major league roster.

Well the last decision you mention was a great one in my view, so hopefully you're right and this one's similar. I think there were a lot of factors and I think that Marcus Stroman's longer future, and also his longer past with the team, played into the decision. I don't think that's a bad thing that I would characterize as 'PR'. I think Gibbons' 'strong preference' (I was initially going to say 'predilection") for lefty/rightly bullpen match ups though, was probably the over-determining factor. And I think Stroman has pitched well the last couple of months and deserves some faith. I was at the game Thursday that others are saying he 'lost 4-0'. The offence was abysmal. Non-existent. He gave up 3 runs in 7 innings which if there was an average AL offence instead of what this team showed in September, would have been a very good start. The defence also did nothing to help him.

Shapiro gave cover today to Gibbons on this, saying that while it's Gibbons' call everyone weighed in. He acknowledged it's probably not the right analytics move. I'm ok with it. I liked the idea that Stroman took his friend Sanchez to work in the offseason at Duke so that they could be difference makers this year. Who does that for Toronto? Aaron made a difference yesterday. I think Marcus will be primed tomorrow to follow suit. Let's get behind him.

I don't think showing trust in a team member is a conspiracy. It happens all the time. I just don't think Stroman is the right choice here and it doesn't have much to do with Stroman. It's all on the Orioles and their inability to hit LHP. One thing though that does favor starting Stroman and bringing Liriano in once the lineup has turned over twice is that if they want to pinch hit to get to Liriano they take guys out who would be better against Osuna and Grili.

And sure Stroman has been a better pitcher this year. But if you look at 2013-2015 Liriano is pretty damn good. How you value Liriano is whether you hold more weight in this years numbers or career numbers.

if he pitches to contact against a power lineup

SK, as you know Stroman throws mostly two seams and planes everything low with break. If he lived by the four seamer, I'd be more concerned about contact. He has the highest ground ball percentage in the league among starters.

Sure and when he misses he gets hammered. But he's certainly capable of shutting a team down with good K numbers. Just hope you guys are right.

His four seamer generates more swings and misses than his two seamer, and in 2016 his two seamer has probably been his worst pitch. If he's pumping two seamers all game tomorrow night, then he's probably looking for contact, specifically ground balls. The key is whether he can mix it up effectively. If the balls are finding gloves, then that's great, but pitchers like him can be BABIP'd very easily even with an elite GB rate, which is obviously a risk in a one game situation.

I don't think anyone here is doubting Stroman's talent. His upside is high. The argument is which SP is the best match-up for tomorrow night's game. Based on the numbers, a very valid argument can be made for Liriano, and many are making it. I also think people are underselling how good Liriano was from 2013-15. He was bad in Pittsburgh this season, but he seems a lot closer to 2013-15 levels since the trade. It would not have been a crazy decision to choose him by any means. I understand why they chose Stroman, though.

Regardless, it is what it is. We just have to hope Stroman has a great start.

I do agree that the "showing commitment to Stroman" and "showing irrational confidence in Stroman" ideas are a perfectly rational case for starting him. So what the hell. I'm on board. One hopes it will be a nice supportive crowd at the Dome and the hitters will bat around in the first and render this whole discussion moot. We'll all do our best.

One thing though that does favor starting Stroman and bringing Liriano in once the lineup has turned over twice is that if they want to pinch hit to get to Liriano they take guys out who would be better against Osuna and Grilli

Actually, this makes a lot of sense too. You could even pull him after 1.5 times, if it's Davis Schoop Bourn 6-7-8 say. Though I'm generally not a huge fan of having a starter know he's on a short leash. Part of me doesn't want to see Liriano at all.

Liriano 13-15:

86gs, 5.9ip/gs, 90era-, 88fip-, 85xfip-, 3.3awar/32gs

Stroman career:

56gs, 6.3ip/gs, 91era-, 82fip-, 81xfip-, 3.9awar/32gs


even if we completely ignore this year, Liriano's best is still not as good as stroman.

Sure but they're close enough that the fact that the Orioles are significantly worse against LHP kicks in. It's not like we're talking about a neutral team here. No one is arguing that Liriano is a better starter than Stroman. They're arguing that Liriano is much better against the Orioles. Which is likely what Dan is going to write an article about tomorrow, despite ZIPs favoring Stroman. I doubt ZIPs forecast the two facing teams built like the Os though. A 25-30 difference in WRC vs handed pitching is much more substantial than the difference between the two starters.

Stroman was pretty good last time out against the Orioles too. He gave up two (small ball) runs through 6 innings and then gave up singles in the 7th and 8th.

The Jays may figure they only need 5 innings from him, before switching to Liriano for 2-3.

I might have chosen Liriano, but if you're going to use both, I prefer Liriano out of the pen.

One thing though that does favor starting Stroman and bringing Liriano in once the lineup has turned over twice is that if they want to pinch hit to get to Liriano they take guys out who would be better against Osuna and Grili.

I don't think this is an insignificant thing.  Unless the Jays are up huge, I can't imagine any situation that Stroman pitches much past the 5th, and in that event, Liriano is coming in to face the Kims and Davises.  Kim and Alvarez probably leaves the game at that point, and Davis won't face a RHP in the later innings. 

If this was a decision between sanchez and Liriano, would you still want liriano?

Of course not. Sanchez is the superior pitcher and has much less proclivity to giving up long balls. Also Sanchez has done very well against Baltimore. Now if the choice was Estrada that would be a more difficult conversation. I don't know if I'd want Estrada or Liriano. But for facing the Orioles in a one game matchup I'd rank our starters like this:

Happ
Sanchez
Liriano/Estrada
Stroman

But Stroman has been better than Sanchez the last 2 months (more actually), and was better before the season (and for most of the first couple months of this season iirc).

but at least we know this isn't about "matchups".

Stroman's career as SP:

1st 32gs: 6.5ip/gs, 3.08era, 3.04fip, 3.31xfip
Next 11gs: 5.9ip/gs, 6.54era, 4.68fip, 3.65xfip
Last 13gs: 6.4ip/gs, 3.24era, 3.12fip, 3.01xfip

Now I get why fans have given up on the idea of Stroman being great due to a bad 11 start stretch (with still solid underlying numbers) but I'm glad management knows better.

And yes, both bad Baltimore outings came inside that 11 game stretch where even the likes of OAK, MIN, and TB were smashing the hell out of him.

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-orioles/post/_/id/1455/orioles-dont-find-marcus-stroman-to-be-much-of-a-mystery

And I think Stroman is a fine number 2, but no I don't think he is an ace or will ever be an ace.

Out of curiosity, what was your opinion of Gibbons using Stroman (coming off an ACL injury) in Game 5 of the ALDS last season over a vastly superior Price (who Gibby used in a 7-1 game in Game 4 out of the pen)?

Over his first 3yrs in the majors by age 25 - 56 starts - amongst all 121 qualified SP he ranks 15th in fip and 14th in xfip. 8th in both in the AL.

Here's the top-10 in both in the AL:

FIP

1. Kluber 70
2. Sale 71
3. Carrasco 73
4. Price 76
5. Quintana 77
6. Pineda 80
7. Stroman 82
8. Keuchel 82
9. Tanaka 84
10. Archer 85

xFIP

1. Carrasco 70
2. Sale 75
3. Kluber 75
4. Keuchel 78
5. Pineda 78
6. Price 78
7. Tanaka 79
8. Stroman 81
9. Hernandez 82
10.Archer 84

Stroman is the youngest on either list by a good 2yrs.

But wait, you say - Pineda isn't an ace either!

Which is true, but in that case we can see both a huge discrepancy with his 100era- compared to stroman's 90era- over that time, AND more importantly we can see that Pineda only throws 5.7ip/gs while Stroman throws 6.3ip/gs, which is a massive difference.

And of course Pineda has consistently underachieved his fips, but Stroman has done that only for one awful stretch in his career so far.

"Out of curiosity, what was your opinion of Gibbons using Stroman (coming off an ACL injury) in Game 5 of the ALDS last season over a vastly superior Price (who Gibby used in a 7-1 game in Game 4 out of the pen)?"

I don't think Price is vastly superior to Stroman. And Price would have been on short rest to boot.

Price was coming off a 6.4 WAR season in 2015, including a monster final two months. Stroman had four starts in September due to an ACL injury. That's a pretty substantial difference. Yet, Gibbons decided to use Price out of the pen in a blowout in Game 4 rather than use him as a starter on 5 days rest in Game 5.

My point is, Gibbons went with what he felt was a better match-up rather than the better pitcher last season, and it worked. This season, he is going with the better pitcher rather than the better match-up in a similar situation (do-or-die game).

For the record, I liked going with Stro in Game 5 last season, much like I preferred going with Liriano here.

Stro had not only been dominant in those 4 starts but his career numbers to that point were about the same as Price's recent numbers.

I just don't think FIP/xFIP fully gets Stroman's issues. Like other guys we have who outperform FIP I think he underperforms it. Too much hard hit contact.

Anyway Dan's article came out and he thinks the Jays made a big mistake.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17712056/how-starting-pitching-decisions-impact-wild-card-games-beyond

In projection terms, how big a difference does it make? Even though ZiPS thinks Liriano is a slightly worse pitcher than Stroman against a neutral team/league (4.11 ERA vs. 4.01 ERA), picking Liriano instead of Stroman would have changed the game from a 50-50 projection to 61-39 in the Blue Jays favor. Jays fans better hope that John Gibbons has an accurate gut.

Shapiro was on Tim and Sid and even he said something to the effect of "the analytics say Liriano should start but....", and then justified Stroman getting the nod instead.

It doesn't look like the high percentage move to make, and even the front office seems to know it. Stroman will have to prove everyone wrong tonight.

It doesn't look like the high percentage move to make, and even the front office seems to know it. Stroman will have to prove everyone wrong tonight.

I think their approach all year has been to let Gibby run the team the way he likes, and he has now put himself on the island - Stroman pitches well and he's a genius, if he doesn't then the front office can turn the page on the Gibbons Era knowing they let him go down swinging. 

"I just don't think FIP/xFIP fully gets Stroman's issues. Like other guys we have who outperform FIP I think he underperforms it"

he didn't underperform them in his first 32 starts. nor in his last 14 starts.

but there were 10gms in the middle there where he did.