So Jonathan Schoop has played all but 2 innings at second base this season. And he's hitting .156/.172/.289 since the calendar turned to September.

Ya think maybe he could use a day off?

Carrera leading off didn't take long to pay off.

We all know Sanchez has excellent movement on his pitches. He has been starting the hitters off throwing strikes, then with two strikes he starts to nibble and then its 2-2 or 3-2. Its tough for Sanchez to nibble with the movement on his pitches.

He has thrown 60 pitches through three...he needs to be more aggressive with two strikes so the Jays can get six innings out of him.

Carrera is killing me.

Is Sanchez nibbling or just throwing what Martin is calling him to throw?

Carrera can continue to troll me all he wants. I'll take it.

Gibby has gone bunting mad recently....Tabler likes it so there's that.

Who pitches the seventh?

I don’t love the bunt, but I do love the other team having to respect the possibility of a bunt.

Biagini only pitched to 1 batter yesterday, but they need at least another guy.

Stellar job by both Sanchez and Biagini.

Looks like Osuna is out of gas as well.

BA has named Vlad Jr. the #1 prospect in the Appy League.

Bichette was #4 in the GCL too.

nice of boston to lose tonight. no clinch yet.

vladdy writeup:

The journey from Danville, Va., the easternmost point in the Appalachian League, to its westernmost counterpart in Greeneville, Tenn., takes just more than four hours. It’s a long ride, but it isn’t insurmountable. In fact, many major league stars have been along the same ride, flourishing in the mountainous Appy League on their way to the big leagues.

Just five years ago, the Appy league hosted Cy Young Award candidates Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, as well as burgeoning regulars in Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Brandon Drury. This year, the pool of talent was particularly deep, with a number of high draft picks stacking up against a stout international class.

The highest-picked player from the 2016 draft to play in the Appy League this summer was Danville righthander Ian Anderson, who missed by two innings the required total to qualify. Anderson was joined by Princeton third baseman Josh Lowe, Elizabethton outfielder Alex Kirilloff, Pulaski outfielder Blake Rutherford and Greeneville righthander Forrest Whitley, who were all among the top 17 picks in the draft, as well as sandwich-round lefthander Joey Wentz of Danville.

Princeton shortstop Adrian Rondon and Bluefield third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranked as the No. 1 international prospects in their respective classes in 2014 and 2015, and they both made impressive strides forward this season. Other highly-ranked international prospects also occupied the league, with Danville outfielder Cristian Pache headlining a group that also included Danville shortstop Derian Cruz, Greeneville shortstop Miguelangel Sierra, Pulaski shortstop Wilkerman Garcia, Pulaski third baseman Dermis Garcia and Elizabethton first baseman Lewin Diaz.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3b, Bluefield (Blue Jays) |

Age: 17. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 200. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2015.

Guerrero, the No. 1 international prospect in the 2015 class, lived up to the hype in his pro debut by more than holding his own despite being the youngest player in the Appy League for the entire season.

Guerrero showed elite hard-hit ability, consistently squaring up pitches and covering the plate well. He shows plus bat speed, natural timing in the box, an understanding of the strike zone and an ability to recognize and track offspeed pitches.

Guerrero moved to third base from the outfield last fall in instructional league. His stocky build, with some less-than-ideal weight, leads some evaluators to project a move to first base if his actions stiffen as he matures. He does have surprising athleticism, though, with a quick first step and passable footwork around the bag. Guerrero showed improved arm strength, with grades on his arm ranging from 55 to 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale.


Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-appalachian-league-top-20-prospects/#EYhZt7DyYz5gvsAr.99

Just picking up on a subject from the previous thread:  I was a little surprised to see a couple of people blaming Gibbons for the melee against the Yankees.  As far as I could tell from the video and the post-game comments, the main provoker of the melee was Kevin Pillar, who raced at full-speed towards Severino from the on-deck circle.  There was no way that Gibbons could have stopped him -- he was halfway to Severino within a micro-second after Severino's pitch.  It was Pillar's actions that brought all the other players onto the field.  So can someone please explain what is the case against Gibbons?  Are people suggesting that Gibbons should have had a huddle with all of his players before the inning began, telling them not to do anything to annoy the Yankees?  Perhaps he could have, but I suspect that these decisions are largely made by the players themselves, exercising their semi-archaic interpretations of "traditional baseball codes."  Moreover, a manager who tries to tell his players to "turn the other cheek" (which is how the players would probably interpret it) would rapidly lose the respect of his team. 

In any event, as I type these words, I can see both sides of the argument -- I can see an argument that Gibbons should have found a way to restrain his team, or caution Happ before the inning, anticipating that fireworks might happen.  But I certainly don't think that Gibbons can be blamed for what Pillar did, which was the clear trigger for the melee. 

And one more point:  fans are understandably irate at the injury to Benoit and the (fairly minor) injury to Travis, but those were unpredictable flukes.  There are dozens of dugout-clearing melees in baseball every year, and significant injuries are fairly rare.  It's usually a bunch of harmless pushing and shoving. The injuries to Benoit and Travis are probably in the category of flukes, rather than something that the Jays should have anticipated.

The real lesson, as some commentators have argued, is that these "traditional baseball codes" are archaic and pointless.

China, I was speculating in the other thread that Gibby bore significant blame for the melee - mostly thinking like a teacher there.  When a group of people who are, theoretically, 'under' your management / control, act like idiots on a semi-consistent basis, it reflects poorly on the manager.  It's not like this was a total one-off - it seems to be a tempermental team, and they certainly had a lot more to lose than the Yanks.  I get that it's not a perfect analogy and it is doubtless hard to manage a bunch of elite, massively-paid talents, but still, Gibby should try to turn the temperature down.

If I had more time I'd try to figure out if the Jays actually do get into altercations with other teams at a higher than normal rate or if that's just my bias. 

It seems to me that Donaldson has been thrown at very often in September and perhaps this should have happened earlier when the team started to struggle early in the month. Until umpires start ejecting pitchers on a first offense, it's far from pointless.

Ideally you let New York feud with Boston while you quietly beat them, but the playbook right now seems to be to throw at Donaldson's head to establish the outside corner.

It seems to me that Donaldson has been thrown at very often in September

This may well be true, I don't know, but I do know that (a) Donaldson does lean out over the plate, especially fearless with his elbow armor and (b) he does make quite a show of things when a pitch is up and in, one that often comes close to hitting him because he himself has almost leaned into it.

Donaldson wears his heart on his sleeve and I think his general level of agitation -- always apparent for all to see -- has something to do with the team's September swoon, injuries he might be nursing and his second half "slump" (which is only really a slump by his standards).

The Donaldson HBP was interesting.  It was unclear if it hurt him or just clipped his elbow guard without inflicting anything on him.  During the broadcast, they had a shot of the Jays dugout after the pitch, where two of the Jays (Pillar and Barney?) were kind of laughing about it, and they seemed to be imitating Donaldson's reaction to the pitch, when he pulled his arm away.  They seemed to think it was funny.  At that point, there didn't seem to be any tension building at all -- the Jays seemed willing to laugh it off.  Not sure how it escalated so fast.

As for the bigger-picture trend:  are the Jays causing conflicts by being emotional and arrogant, or are they being victimized by opposing pitchers because of their reputation for being prima donas, and is their reputation deserved or not?  Until we have clear answers on those questions, it's difficult to say whether the manager is at fault.

Donaldson, Bautista, Stroman, Grilli - yeah the jays are loud and brash and arrogant.

but that's a good thing, most likely.

I'm not sure about the answers to the broader questions, but certainly this particular donnybrook was more or less entirely of the Jays' making.  Severino couldn't hit water from a boat on Monday, and as was noted on the other thread, if he'd been throwing at Donaldson the pitch would have been right over the middle of the plate.  For some inexplicable reason, Happ decided revenge was required, with the predictable results that followed.  As an aside, I do wish umpires would exercise better judgement in these circumstances, using the tools available to them.  Warnings are not necessary - Happ should have been ejected for deliberately hitting a batter as the rules dictate, which apart from being a just result, would likely have defused the matter since it is unlikely that the Yankees would have engaged in reprisals had the umpires acted to protect their hitter in that circumstance.  As it was, the Yankees lost players to ejection, and I suppose some form of karmic justice was served by the Jays not only losing the game but losing Travis and Benoit to injuries suffered in the brawl their pitcher precipitated. 

Well Donaldson had been complaining in the clubhouse since the last Yankees series on how he was treated there. It's no surprise the players came to his defense, Happ included. And in the context of baseball that means plunking the batter. Now sure it looks dumb to us but the injuries like CF said were flukes. They could have just as easily happened in the running out from the pen and cheering at the plate when they had the come from behind victory earlier in the series. Heck Benoit got hurt entering the playing field. That could have happened anytime.

"....For some inexplicable reason, Happ decided revenge was required, with the predictable results that followed....."

Happ and Pillar were the two biggest instigators on the Jays side.  It's clear that Pillar acted on his own -- he raced onto the field immediately.  As for Happ,  I'd love to know if it was his own idea, or whether he was urged on by others.  And I'd love to know whether Gibbons could have prevented that or not.  I tend to think not, but I admit that I don't know whether these acts of "retribution" are spontaneous or planned.

the question that matters is - does this team play better or worse when they have a chip on their shoulder?

Pillar was the first guy there in the Odor/Bautista dustup, too.

uglyone asks a legitimate question - baseball isn't as much an emotional, red-rage sport as football or hockey, but it's still worth wondering if the Jays play better when they're "fired up". They lost that game against the Yankees mostly due to a Grilli meltdown, but in the end they at least made it interesting. And they came back strong against the O's.

I think it's almost trivial to say that some players play better and some play worse. Donaldson better for sure. Pillar probably worse, at least at the plate. It'd be an interesting thought experiment to go up and down the roster and speculate. I always thought Jonathan Papelbon's command was proportional to the wattage of his glower.

The Jays did think Severino was throwing at Donaldson, and that if he hadn't been so wild would have done more than just nick him. They thought the replay showed Sanchez looking at Donaldson and pointing way inside for the pitch. Happ certainly should have been tossed after throwing at Headley, but umpires are often reluctant to toss a pitcher if there hasn't been a warning issued. The warning needed to be issued after the first pitch behind Headley. I suppose the umpire thought "Well, that could have been an accident."

BP Locals Boston has a fine article about how much agony the Baseball Gods can inflict on a team. Today's date marks the 5 year anniversary of that great collapse.

I have been excited by Bichett's start.
but I have a nagging concern.
both he and his older brother were groomed by their papa.
The older brother started super hot in minor leagues also but last few years been going nowhere.
Will there it be a pattern or none?

Donaldson was hit on the head/helmet on Aug 5 and that could have been serious.
I see him diving backward frequently.  I don't see anybody else being pitched inside constantly.

Is somebody objectively tracking which batters lean over the plate? That sounds like an interesting statistics.

I did a quick google search on MLB hitters leaning over the plate and besides a WSJ article on Miguel Cabrera and the art of hitting, all I got was Bautista's Aug 2 2015 incident with the Royals and around May 23 when after the Twins bench screamed at Donaldson for not running on a double-play ball (really?) he hit a homerun and was thrown at. Twice.

Carrera's at it again.

go Liriano go.

shapiro's earning (has earned?) the benefit of doubt when it comes to pitchers at least.

Liriano's change-up is moving like a screwball.

Buck (or Pat?) said, last game, that it was his slider that was moving like a screwball and that make no sense to me.

8th inning, heart of the lineup.

Thanks to Shapiro (Happ/Estrada/Liriano) and AA (Sanchez/Stroman), the Jays might have the best rotation in the postseason.

Clutch 3-2 curve by Cecil to K Davis.

good cecil is good.

now let's hope for good grilli.

Good grief, Grilli.

bad Grilli is bad.

time for cecil to get back his setup role.

Grilli ran into a bit of Trumbo in the eighth. It happens.

next guy hit it even harder tho.

Grilli's ERA is rising fast and furious.

Pat has never once recommended a hitter taking a 3-0 pitch.

even in a crucial one run game in the late innings.

That ain't Chuckie's game.

I hope Barksdale gives Osuna a similarly generous strike zone in the ninth.

Pat Tabler in his career 3-0 was 2 for 5 with 42 BB and a HBP. Another 58 times strike one happened. He's just retroactively eager to swing more...

Great job by Osuna to get Hardy. Keep it going.

Osuna looks tired -- a bit erratic. He's going to have to dig deep here.

Three ninth-inning leads blown in the last four games.

Yeah don't say "postseason" quite yet...

Osuna's been mediocre lately. His velocity seems fine. I wonder if he's just trying too hard mastering that slow timing thing when he should be working on his pitches and command.

The offense didn't score after the 2nd inning.

their pinch hitter better than our pinch hitter

Maybe it would be better if Osuna was brought in for a few less four run leads so he could be fresh for the close games.

This was Osuna's 4th game in 5 days. He really should not have pitched last night in a 4 run game. He and Grilli look like they are gassed, but they are not getting many off days due to Gibbons not trusting anyone else.

The offense struggling again is the main issue (what else is new?), but Gibby's going to have to go to other RP's in close games if his top guys are looking burnt out.

Is there a reason Kim didn't start yesterday? That was an excellent at-bat.

Wow, I'm not a Carrera fan, but he's on a hot streak and actually hits lefties better than righties, yet Gibbons pinch hits a bad back-up catcher for him.

I'm not going to be too hard on Gibbons because the offense continues to be the reason why all these games have the tiniest margin for error possible, but it really magnifies his decision making. I wonder if Osuna will be available tomorrow. He probably shouldn't be (otherwise it will be 5 games in 6 days for him), but who knows.

Osuna's pitched 4 times in 5 days. I imagine he wouldn't be available.

He should not have been in the game yesterday in a 5-1 game.

The offense costs them another really good start.

Showalter's O's always seem to win more games than they should, while Gibbons' Jays seem to lose more than they should, that is, based on sheer talent. I admit that this is a complicated question and that the above hypothesis might not hold up under scrutiny.

I didn't see either game but I don't understand why Osuna pitched yesterday.

Did we just have so much fun in April we decided to re-live it? Great starts ruined by lack of offense and no bullpen relief.

dammit and teixeira walks off the sox too. sox clinch anyways.

The Jays-Yankees brawl is the gift that keeps on giving. Instead of Travis and fresh Benoit in tonight's game, the Jays got Goins and tired Grilli/Osuna.

Well, good news is Jays hold the tie breaker for home field advantage in the wild card game vs both Baltimore and Detroit. No idea on Seattle who are unlikely to catch up (behind by 3 in the loss column with 4 to go). No one else can catch the Jays.

I say that Osuna and Grilli should both be on flights to Boston to relax for a couple of days now.

Seems like Cecil is back in the good books now, Barns is getting regular play, Biagini is the #4 guy in the pen (Osuna/Grilli/Benoit the big 3). Meanwhile Dermody, and Shultz have forgotten where the mound is by now. Loup, Feldman, and Tepera are hoping to see it again soon.

It might be a risk to just go with the #4 and beyond guys in the pen for a game but at this point I think it is a bigger risk to keep playing Osuna and Grilli into the ground.

It's good that Boston clinched. Now they can focus on getting a wild card spot. That's a very tight race right there.

Osuna and Grilli have been mediocre of late, perhaps overused - it's too bad Gibbons is not bold enough to use less experienced pitchers like Barnes,Tepera or even Smith in crucial situations -I think using Osuna on Tuesday night was a poor decision & I expected tonight's meltdown. Even though Sanchez is terrific as a starter, Jays may need him in the pen if they want to have a playoff run - Estrada, Happ, Stroman & Liriano in rotation.

Showalter's O's always seem to win more games than they should

Yes, they do - this was especially true this year (5 games better than Pythag) and in 2013 (11 games better, fueled by an incredible run of good fortune in one-run games.) His Orioles teams in 2011, 2012, and 2014 were all a couple of games better and his 2013 team won exactly what you would have expected. The 2015 team was a couple games worse.

Nothing like this happened during his previous stints in New York, Arizona, and Texas. Overall, his Baltimore teams have won 22 more than expected, his Texas teams lost 5 more than expected, his Arizona teams lost 3 more, and his New York teams hit the nail exactly on the head.

Ubaldo has actually been pretty good over the last month or so. On the other hand, he has struggled in the RC over his career (opponents' OPS: 1.005).

He is beatable, but the Jays will have to have good PAs. I don't know if Travis will be ready to play tomorrow, but he is one of the Jays' better hitters against Ubaldo (in a small sample). Carrera, Saunders, and Pillar have good numbers against him as well. Upton, Encarnacion, and Martin have been OK against him. Bautista, on the other hand, is 3/42 (0 HR) against him, albeit with 7 walks. Make of that what you will.

Of course, Stroman will have to pitch well to keep the O's offense in check.

Today was a very important game for the Jays. Tomorrow's game is equally, if not more, important.

Baltimore has 3 games against the eliminated Yankees. At least it's in New York.
Detroit has 3 games against god awful Atlanta. At least it's on the road.
Seattle finished at home against Oakland, the worst team in their division.

It's going to be a photo finish. I still hope 88 games is enough.

What's the pen like tomorrow? Biagini and a couple of guys who will give 4 runs?

It may be that Showalter has simply learned a few things over the years. One focus of his managerial approach in recent years is disciplined bullpen usage. Even though the situation otherwise calls for it, he will refrain from using a particular reliever in order to avoid injuring or burning out that pitcher. This is something Gibbons does not do, at least not to the same extent or in such a disciplined way.

"Osuna and Grilli have been mediocre of late, perhaps overused "

Osuna maybe. Grilli has not been anything close to mediocre.

Last 12 appearances: 9.2 IP, 11 ER, 7 BB, 5(!) HR.

It's not some babip struggles like Cecil in April. The guy is missing badly and getting destroyed. He's 39 and grunts louder than any pitcher I've ever heard when he throws. He's out of gas. I don't know how much more Gibbons needs to see to stop running him out there every day. I'd give Cecil another shot or even take a chance with Barnes.

He's 39 and grunts louder than any pitcher I've ever heard when he throws.

Ever see Nolan Ryan? The Maria Sharapova of baseball!

I also think Grilli may be running on fumes, although it should be noted that almost all of the damage came in two games.

The Tigers game gets called after five innings. Detroit wins.

If the Jays lose tomorrow it's going to start to look interesting...

I hate to say it, but the Red Sox have totally outclassed the Jays over the last month. The postseason may be a different story, but the Jays have to get there for that even to be a possibility.

"I also think Grilli may be running on fumes, although it should be noted that almost all of the damage came in two games."

Most of the "damage" maybe but he had two other appearances where he walked two batters and he's been giving up a lot more line drives. I don't think it's a fluke, and I'm usually the first to dismiss reliever variability.

In my mind, the Jays have to win tomorrow. As Felix said in the Seattle game, "this is my house." Well, this is the Jays' house. They need to take charge of this situation and mercilessly dispatch the O's.

If they don't, and Detroit and Baltimore surpass them in the final three games of the season, well, the Jays will have gotten what they deserve. And the marketing department can start searching for a new banal slogan for 2017 to replace #OurMoment.

Grilli has been used a lot for a pitcher his age. He was great for a few months, but I definitely think he's out of gas. The hard contact, home runs, etc, are all heading in the wrong direction. He's either hurt or running on fumes, and I'm going to guess the latter. Toning it down a bit with him and giving him some rest would do him some good, although with only 4 games left in the season, it's a little late for that. A win tomorrow and hopefully Gibbons will take it easy on his relievers over the weekend. A loss tomorrow, and.....yikes.

To be fair, it would be easier to rest him if the Jays could score some runs. They really need to not only win tomorrow, but win by a large enough margin that they don't use any important relievers.

A bittersweet day - Potentially the last game in a Jays uniform at home for 2 faces of the franchise Jose & EE ( also Cecil,R.A, Saunders etc.) - here's hoping they both go Deep.

That was the worst loss of the season. A win there and they're 3 up on Baltimore with 4 to play, holding the tiebreaker. Instead they're only 1 game up.

To have a two run lead with 4 outs to go and no one on, and then a one run lead with 2 outs to go and bases empty, and not win is really disappointing.

They can pretty much neutralize that loss by winning today. If they don't then things get dicey.

It's such a shame as the starting rotation has pitched so well for virtually the entire season. We keep waiting for the offence to progress to an elite level but it's not happening. At this point the offence is what it is (lots of K's, not a lot of hits, lots of double plays & relies primarily on the long ball for runs). We witness glimpses of hitters willing to take the pitch oppo, but then this approach fades. The bullpen is in dire straits right now with fatigued relievers & an injured Benoit. Fingers crossed that starting pitching & solid defence spiced with a couple of dingers will be enough for a post season birth.

As disappointing as that loss was, the Jays playoff odds went from 96% to 90%. A win would have put them around 99%, but 90% is still completely in the driver seat (though I don't believe these projections take schedule into account).

I feel like Stroman has gotten the ball in some big situations over the past 6 weeks, be it trying to sweep or stop a losing streak, seemingly frequently pitching the final game of a series. Either he has been subpar or the offense has let him down. Hard to imagine with his stuff he has to win his last start to get to 10 wins. Huge one tonight, would be nice not needing more than 1 in Boston.

Stroman since Aug.1:

10gs, 6.2ip/gs, 3.06era, 3.27fip, 2.93xfip

(1-5)

As disappointing as that loss was, the Jays playoff odds went from 96% to 90%.

Right, but only if "wild card spot" is considered "playoffs". A divide by two is necessary to properly contextualize those odds, to reflect the coin flip that is the wild card game. So down from 48% to 45%.

The wildcard game is technically a playoff game, so yeah.

10gs, 6.2ip/gs, 3.06era, 3.27fip, 2.93xfip

(1-5)

Doesn't know how to win!

The good news is plenty still.

Detroit 2 games back with 4 to go, Seattle 3 back. Basically those teams need to win everything left to have any shot. Still a 1 game lead on Baltimore, which is far better than being behind by a game.

Boston clinching means they will be using the weekend to tune up, sadly with the way the Jays do vs secondary pitchers that may not work well.

13 games in a row which the starters have not given up more than 2ER and they are only 8-5 in that stretch because of weak offense and spotty relief pitching. The thing is with that stretch the starters have more than overcome the early September hiccup and are now way back in front in the AL (since the Indians have gone way down with injuries) They have moved into the front in starter FIP (second in xFIP) and in ERA are almost a full half run in front of the second place team Clevelend. Who would have thought that to start the season?

Thinking ahead to 2017 what do we know (or see)? Using 2nd half stats to see who is holding up

CA: Martin 850 OPS should be good
1B: Smoak 680 OPS he is who he is
2B: Travis 799 OPS if can stay healthy will be a great one
3B: Donaldson 891 OPS - only for a MVP would that be a disappointment
SS: Tulo 763 OPS solid with great D
LF: Upton 584 OPS, ug.
CF: Pillar 630 OPS, needs to keep that superman defense to earn his job
RF: Carrera 537 OPS, ug.
DH: ???

Clearly the replacements for Bautista/Saunders/Encarnacion are not doing enough to give any hope if the Jays fail to sign them. Meanwhile Pompey has 2 PA in September and 6 total games appeared in (he is now 23). Reminds me of Vernon Wells second call up (3 games, 2 PA at age 21).

Pitching is a bit more interesting.
Starting...
Stroman 81 IP 3.56 ERA
Happ 76 IP 2.95 ERA (glad to have him for 2 more years)
Sanchez 67 IP 3.24 ERA
Estrada 67 IP 4.46 ERA
Dickey 53 IP 5.60 ERA (glad he is going eh?)
Liriano 49 IP 2.92 ERA (nice salary dump to get)

I'd say Liriano might end up being the 'wow' trade in the end for the current GM.

The wildcard game is technically a playoff game, so yeah.

If you want to get technical, it's a play-in game, to gain entry into the playoffs.

the offense issue is overstated. they jays have just been scoring plenty the last couple series. 2 run games still happen, though.

No, technically it's a playoff game, since that's what MLB calls it. It feels more like a play-in game as you're describing.

Talk about a distinction without a difference.

But this is exactly why I so wanted to win the division, so we could avoid this argument, lol.

It's not playoffs to me.

96 runs scored in 25 games so far in September.
108 runs against in 25 games for September.
Tired bullpen; a couple of horrific starts contributed to the runs against & an offence that is generating less than 4 runs per game in a pennant race at crunch time. Time to step it up tonight with the bats as the O's bullpen has been excellent all year. Jimenez has pitched well lately for the O's so my optimism turns to reality concerning the bats & pull approach of this lineup versus a SP who will throw it away from them all evening.

If the Jays make the WC game and lose, then I'll have a tough time considering it a playoff appearance simply because it would be one extra game. However, if that's how MLB classifies it, then that's what it is, as underwhelming as it would be for the team that loses that game.

That game is a 50/50, random, coin flip. I wanted no part of it on September 1st when the Jays were leading the division, but now it's better than nothing.

I'd much rather win the division too, but the Jays have never been in a wild card game, so I will kind of enjoy the novelty if it happens.

The postseason is a crapshoot anyway. It took nearly 150 games to determine that the Red Sox were the best team in the AL East (which they are, realistically). One game, or five games, or seven games, will prove nothing.

The Wildcard game I'm going to try to ignore as much as I can.

because I do like the fact that if we win, we're likely lined up to play both Texas and Boston - which fills my rivalry card perfectly. No other teams I would rather beat in a playoff series right now than those two.

I like to think that the Baseball Gods purposely planned a Jays/Rangers ALDS rematch, which is why the Red Sox took the division and the Jays had to settle for the WC. That was the only way to make it happen.

For a sport that's losing popularity, MLB would probably love to milk the Bat Flip/Punch for all they can get out of it. I remember the morning after the Bat Flip game, that's all ESPN (TV and radio) was talking about. It would be hard to sell an Orioles/Rangers or Tigers/Rangers match-up.

Orioles/Rangers - the curse of Rafael Palmeiro?
Tigers/Rangers - the curse of Juan Gonzalez?

Yeah, I got nothing.

Is it possible that in a Jays-Rangers series, with Odor at the plate, the ball might slip out of the hand of a Jays pitcher, as it did for Happ the other day? Accidents happen.

Travis is in the lineup tonight. This is great news if he's healthy (or a reasonable approximation of healthy). It's obviously unwise if his shoulder is hanging by a thread. Remember that Devon has a history of unsuccessfully trying to play through a shoulder injury.

Jesus Montero suspended for drug use.

Have to admit, wasn't sure we'd see Travis again this year the way he was wincing from that surgery-repaired shoulder.

Clearly the replacements for Bautista/Saunders/Encarnacion are not doing enough to give any hope if the Jays fail to sign them.

Clearly we don't know how they will be replaced. The bar isn't that high at any rate.

This is the one game to win.

Cleveland @ Detroit was ppd, will be made up Monday if it has to.

Also, weather reports in Boston for the Toronto series and in NY for the Baltimore series call for rain.

It could get very chaotic.

A shame. Montero was once a super-cant miss-prospect I really hoped he'd develop here but instead he tried a short cut and now might never get another shot. I wonder if the Jays knew this was possible (as I recall the team and player know much earlier than the public as the appeal goes through) thus why they didn't call him up even though another bat would've been useful.

BA has a nice writeup about Steve Sanders, the Jays' new amateur scouting director:

The Blue Jays will hire Steve Sanders as their new scouting director, sources told Baseball America. Sanders, who previously served as the assistant scouting director for the Red Sox, is in his late 20s and will become one of the game’s youngest scouting directors.

Sanders coordinated Boston’s amateur scouting department from 2012-14 and was promoted to assistant director of amateur scouting in 2015. He played collegiately at Northwestern, pitching out of the Wildcats bullpen. Sanders has a reputation as a people person with strong analytical skills.

“He’ll do a great job in that role,” said one scout who worked with Sanders in Boston. “Sanders is really smart and he knows how to process and use information.”

Sanders fills the Blue Jays scouting director vacancy, which opened when the team fired Brian Parker back in August. Blue Jays scouts were informed of his hiring in a scouting department meeting this morning.

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/blue-jays-hire-steve-sanders-amateur-scouting-director/#I6p2DT6GtF8tI3qH.99

Zen thought of the day: the way to win tonight's game is to not try to win.

not gonna be easy if ubaldo keeps getting this giant strike zone to counter his biggest weakness.

45 pitches through 2 IP is a good start. Now don't let him off the hook by starting to hack.

Ouch. That's what a DH looks like playing RF.

Saunders: unclutch at the plate and in the field.

meat has to come through this time.

nope.

0-5 w/RISP already.

Ugh, Travis works a 9-pitch walk then Carerra, JD and EE go down in 6 pitches. Painful. Hate the first pitch bunt (though that was really close and SN never showed a good replay), outs on 1 pitch are such gifts to the pitcher.

Middle of the lineup (well top too) has had some chances here. Of course they're sucking like usual which is a bummer.

Now 2-16 for the series. Jerry talked a few times on Tuesday about how hitting with RISP would be a big factor in this series (it often is, of course).

I see the Jays are doing their usual "make the opposing starting pitcher throw a lot of pitches but still get bupkis."

Stroman is not pitching all that well. Trouble is brewing.

defense costs another run.

This has not been the best month for Mr. Donaldson.

""Stroman is not pitching all that well."

50 pitches through 4. 4 singles, 1 walk, and 1 "double".

A 2-0 deficit feels like a huge mountain to climb with the way the offense has been going, even with Ubaldo on the mound. If it becomes a bullpen game, then the Jays are in trouble. They'll need to hit Jimenez, and soon.

We're not officially past the innings where the Jays can actually score. So I guess that's that.

*now

The O's regained the momentum in the series in the 8th and 9th innings last night. Now they're in the driver's seat.

Stroman may not be doing terribly, but Ubaldo is completely shutting them down. Only 2 batters have had an exit velocity over 90mph, Donaldson and Edwin and they were both outs. Lots of crappy contact. And as has been mentioned, Ubaldo is getting the call just off the outside corner to righties, which is not helping.

So how many position players on this team are currently injured but still playing? And how much is it affecting their play?

So far the glaring plays in this game are:

- Bautista K with runners at the corners and one out

- Fly ball glancing off Saunders' glove for a double

- Donaldson's poor throw to second, making a DP impossible and possibly resulting in a run

- A few hittable pitches by Stroman getting hit and contributing to rallies

If this season ends with the Jays outside of the playoffs (like some other Box people, I don't consider the Wild Card game as the playoffs) the fixation on Jay Bruce since the Shapkins regime took over is looking pretty darn correct at this point. Had they been able to land Bruce in the winter, or in the spring as they were close to doing, perhaps they are able to divert their time and resources in July to getting more bullpen help, or landing another difference maker somewhere on their roster. Not to mention the upgrade to Saunders that Bruce is on the field in virtually every aspect of the game, as 151 games this season have managed to show.

So far I think it's simple. O'a are 2-2 scoring a run with runner on 3rd 1 out. Jays are 0-1. Score 2-0.

Lots of game left. I'm weirdly optimistic.

As far as the offensive struggles, it just seems opposing pitchers (doesn't matter what team, except perhaps the Twins, who are at 100 losses) are adjusting quicker and really catching Jays hitters off guard up and down the lineup. Injuries? Lack of left handed power? Hard to say.

Bruce has been awful since going to the Mets. That's not the issue. The Jays pitchers other than Feldman acquired this year have been very good. Imagine how we'd be without Grili, Benoit, Biagini and Liriano. Pitching acquired this year is not an issue. Neither are the starters who are half a run in ERA in front of anyone else in the AL this year.

The issue is the rest of the bullpen they started the year with haven't been that good and a regression in offensive stats throughout the lineup, especially Bautista and the bottom of the lineup (Pillar and Colabelo especially) It also doesn't help that the Jays have declined a bit defensively and majorly on the bases. (Down 15 base runs plus leading the league in double plays)

I dont understand why Saunders is still playing at all. Pompey would be a upgrade in the field and on the bases and it would be tough to be worse at the plate. Saunders is hitting 180 since mid July.

Bautista has battled injuries all season, and we know Donaldson's hurt. Saunders has been absolutely brutal since the ASB but that could be normal regression more than anything else. Clearly this offense needs all the top guys to be on their games (Bautista/Donaldson/Edwin/Tulo/Martin), but unfortunately in September in particular that hasn't been the case. They have been wasting very good pitching, which is the frustrating part. There is no reason why they couldn't win 90+ games with the way the rotation has pitched this season.

Oh and injuries of course. Whether this is because of luck or related to age or because we have too many players who all need to DH for various reasons is something we don't really know. Opinions differ.

And on opinions differ there is the matter of managers who bring in their closers with four run leads. But yeah we can't really critique him here.

ubaldo really is getting a ridiculous zone.

Is 87 wins going to be enough?

Bruce: 579pa, 108wrc+, -11drs, -10.6uzr, 0.4fwar, 0.3bwar
Saunders: 552pa, 117wrc+, -11drs, -8.9uzr, 1.4fwar, 1.3bwar

and bruce is owed $12.5m next year.

Need to rest all the good relievers tonight so there's a chance of winning 2 in Boston.

And of course they seem lined up to face Porcello, Rodriguez and Price.

even with Ubaldo on the mound.

Except Jimenez has been absolutely fabulous since returning to the rotation in mid-August. Now up to 47 IP in 7 starts, with 38 K, 13 BB, just 27 hits, 2.49 ERA.

Jays offense looks bad again. Ubaldo does look like he's pitching well, but still. And then again, the umpire tonight has been pretty bad, and from what I can tell it's mostly hurt the Jays. (Until that last one against Machado).

this is a pretty embarassing big game performance.

Sometimes it just boils down to, you just weren't good enough. That may be the 2016 Jays.

this is a pretty embarassing big game performance.

Getting out-hit or out-pitched is one thing. They're also getting out-hustled.

Their run differential is plenty good enough to be one of 5 AL playoff teams.

Last year's team was so much fun to watch. this year's team it's almost torture some times.

Four run lead.

Showalter probably has Britton getting loose.

Well... if this is the last time we see Encarnacion and Bautista hit for the Blue Jays in Toronto... it's been a great ride, fellas. And thanks for the memories.

Bruce: 579pa, 108wrc+, -11drs, -10.6uzr, 0.4fwar, 0.3bwar
Saunders: 552pa, 117wrc+, -11drs, -8.9uzr, 1.4fwar, 1.3bwar

and bruce is owed $12.5m next year.

Saunders' second half has been REALLY discouraging. This year no contest, but next year... ?
12.5 is cheaper than a QO next year and there's a mechanical issue that theoretically is more fixable than Saunders' issue.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-didnt-get-the-jay-bruce-they-traded-for/

In the end, I don't really want either of them on the team - I think they're pretty much a wash.

Wow, you don't have to go to your closer with a 4 run lead?

If Gibby was managing the O's Osuna would be in to close.

they should have started a brawl.

"Saunders' second half has been REALLY discouraging."

Bruce has sucked just as badly.

"In the end, I don't really want either of them on the team - I think they're pretty much a wash."

Saunders has been significantly better and is significantly cheaper. that's not a wash.

Looking for a silver lining, Baltimore winning does officially eliminate the Yankees (and the Astros.)

Playoff odds down to 79%, which seems high given schedules. Probably need to go 2-1 in Boston, very tough sell.

I always thought it would come down to this series, though winning the division the prize with hosting wild card the backup. Never needing it to limp into wild card.

11 incredibly disappointing innings in a row. Lot of veterans in the locker room, hopefully they can find something that's been missing. Maybe it's just health.

i get the feeling we'll be watching the makeup game for today's detroit rainout with mucho interest.

Just two more outs yesterday and this all would have been moot. That was the game to win.

Uglyone, I won't be. My interest level is waning fast.

Tepera has been pretty solid lately and I wonder if he could have been used Monday instead of Osuna which would have made a difference yesterday.

The silver lining is that now the pen is rested. Just need the starters to outpitch Boston.

Even if the Jays make the WC game, they will be limping all the way there. In a one game situation, it's such a random game that even if the Jays had the ability to line their rotation up perfectly (which they probably don't anymore) and the other team had to use their #5 starter, the Jays could still lose (especially with the way the offense has performed).

Missing the Wild Card altogether will cause massive changes (coaching staff probably gone, roster turnover, etc). Making the WC game and losing probably leads to the same. Can the Jays make the WC game, win it, and then have a good showing in the post season? Given how September has gone, I wouldn't bet on it. The SP was able to mask the offense for much of this week or two, but it's been much of the same this much except for one or two games where they put up a decent amount of runs. This team became flawed in a hurry, and it has nothing to do with the pen.

meh, momentum isn't something i'd worry about. just make it and then a new season starts.

Nice thing is none of those Boston starters will be given more than 5 or 6 innings unless Farrell is totally insane this weekend.

"Last years's team was so much fun to watch.this year's team it's almost torture."

I agree completely. I didn't even watch all of last nights game because the Jays just seemed predestined to lose the way they were playing.Do we miss Ben Revere that much? Besides him and Travis replacing Goins at second, this is basically the same team yet they don't seem to have the same swagger and ability to string hits together as last year. And now that Ernie Whitt and Tony Fernandez are hurt we might not even make the playoffs.

"momentum isn't something i'd worry about"

"This time of year, momentum is huge," Wieters said. "Over 162 (games), momentum is going to come and go but once you start getting close to the playoffs, momentum is big. We're going to try and keep it going as long as we can."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=360929114

Next 3 (4 in the Tigers' case):

Jays:
Estrada v Porcello
Happ v Rodriguez
Sanchez v Price

O's:
Gallardo v Pineda
Miley v Tanaka
Gausman v Cessa

Tigers:
Zimmerman v Wisler
Boyd v Blair
Verlander v Teheran
TBD v TBD

Momentum... something something next day's starting pitcher. The 2007 Rockies momentumed their way to the World Series, and then got swept. The 2000 Yankees finished the season 2-13, and then won the whole thing. Get in and hope the bats get hot.

What pained me Grimlock is that either the fans are confident there will be a home playoff game, or there was little awareness that it might have been Edwin and Jose's last game.

So, in the final at-bat in the 9th, me Grimlock stood and cheered. Never mind that these fans were so aware 3 weeks ago that they gave that walking sack-of-PEDs David Ortiz a mini-ovation. Me Grimlock incredulous.

Somethings rotten in the state of the Blue Jays.

This team has looked nothing like last years team over the last month. The hitting has been poor, they have hit into a lot of double plays, and the fielding has been bad. And then there are the blown wins by the bullpen.

I think Donaldson is still injured, not only is he not hitting he has become error prone. Travis has been skittish over the last month too and Michael Saunders has been poor.

I felt a bit sorry for Stroman last night. Saunders missed catching what became a double, a play that I think over 50% of right fielders make. That led to the first run. Then Donaldson makes a bad throw on a double play ball that would have eliminated the second run. Finally Tulo doesn't run out a ground ball.

I don't know if team chemistry/hustle looks bad because they are losing or if they are losing because team chemistry is off. But something doesn't smell right about htis situation they find themselves in.

There is hope, teams turn around for no discernible reason, but the odds seem to be against that right now.

If wieters' team was struggling, he'd be arguing momentum means nothing.

""Somethings rotten in the state of the Blue Jays."

Maybe like a fish rots from the head down?

We have an FO that imo clearly indicated winning wasn't the priority this year, that every free agent - even longterm faces of the franchise - would be allowed to leave without a competitive bid, that no longterm assets would be used to improve the team's chances this year, and that prospects were a higher priority trade deadline target than players. (All while the other playoff teams have received clear and unwavering signals from their FOs from the offseason on that winning was the ONLY priority this year.)

Not exactly conducive to a confident, winning atmosphere.

imho.

It does remind me a bit of 2014. The Jays were in it at the trade deadline, only a 1.5 or something out of first, and holding the 2nd WC spot. The front office did basically nothing, there were comments from players upset that they didn't add much, and subsequently the team tanked and finished badly.

Last year, of course, they really went for it and they had that amazing surge.

Somethings rotten in the state of the Blue Jays.

I think they're just old. Every player in the starting lineup is past-prime except for Pillar and Travis. And they're doing what old players do - they've gotten banged up, and they're not resilient enough to rebound as quickly as the young folks do.

This team was built to win last year. Thanks to some clever moves to build the pitching staff - Estrada, Happ, Liriano, Grilli, Benoit - they've managed to hang on into September this year, but they've obviously now run out of gas.

Joaquin Benoit could, in this scenario, serve as an avatar of the season. Sure, it was stupid to get into a pointless brawl with the Yankees. But Benoit hurt himself (as I understand it) because he ran onto the field at full speed, and he is a 39-year-old man who weighs 250 pounds. That's the sort of thing that happens to middle-aged guys.

At this point, I'm just grateful that the Jays lasted into September. We've had some good baseball memories from this era of the Blue Jays - bat flip! - and now, we'll have to wait a few years while Vlad Jr. matures and other new youngsters get good. We'll have to endure EE hitting home runs for the Red Sox or whoever in the meantime. But if you've been a Jays fan for a while, you should be used to that by now.

And you never know. The Jays might be able to back into the postseason, even now. And, once you're in the playoffs, it's a crapshoot - and the Jays have a lot of experience playing elimination games now. Anything could happen.

Just for the record I don't agree uglyone. The players don't care about what the FO thinks.

If you are looking for some optimism here is what I can come up with....

Boston have cooled off after their 11 game win streak. They are not playing for anything now and the pedal is off the gas.

Their starting pitchers are unlikely to go much more than five innings each game.

Farrell will cycle through his relievers, he wont overwork them

The Jays starting pitching has been excellent

Detroit have shaky starting pitching for their first two games and Atlanta have been a decent team since mid-season

All we need is a few well placed bombs off or over the green monster to change the "momentum"

Of course that ignores the fact that when you look at the slew of free agents traded this deadline there just wasn't very much out there. They traded for a reliever who has been very good and a starter who's performed about as good as any starter traded this deadline. They're not going to care that Liriano at that point in the season was poor. He had multiple years of all star performance before that and got back with his preferred catcher. And guess what he's been very good since coming over.

Anyway once again I laugh at the comments they didn't improve the team. It's just pointless complaining because there isn't any OF or pitcher out there this trade deadline that was a clear upgrade over what the Jays got. Upton has been bad yes, but Beltran, Reddick, Bruce, etc haven't been good or even worse. When your team has set regulars at C, 3B, SS, 2B, DH, CF and RF guess what there isn't much room to improve the roster.

If the players aren't playing well because there hasn't been a front office push to sign a bunch of aging DHs with poor fielding/running skills than boo bleeping hoo. Sooner we get rid of people with that attitude the better. They should realize that the three of them are playing for one roster spot next year and get over it. They're nearing the point where their bats aren't compensating for the fact that their game sucks in all other ways. (Well Jose and Saunders are nearing that point a lot faster)

This team is old, slow and injury prone (also too slanted towards RH hitting) and their starters can't be relied on going forward to be a half run better than everyone in the AL. The sooner people realize a reload is needed the better. Deny it all you want but what makes you think that next year the collection of position players we have will improve in any way? They'll all be a year older, a year slower, a year worse at batting and closer to replacement level.

""Just for the record I don't agree uglyone. The players don't care about what the FO thinks."

fair enough. it's just one man's opinion. but i do believe it matters.

The Jays were 76-57 and leading the division on September 1st, and they went 17-11 (.607) in August, right after the trade deadline. Did they wait specifically until September to act on their hatred for the front office?

Of course they did SK since it suits the narrative. Of course let's not touch on the fact we have multiple players playing injured and way too many players that need time at DH. But no old players aren't more prone to injury and fatigue than young guys from what I've heard around here.

by that argument - did they all of a sudden get old in september after a "youthful" august? or is your narrative not held to the same standards?


but no need to exaggerate. there's no hatred. and the team is still one of the best in baseball.

but i firmly believe that an FO's committment to winning matters, and I don’t believe ours has given our team the support that the other playoff FOs have.

I mean come on - they basically told Joey and EE that they were unw

It's not just the older players who are banged up. Pillar and Travis are playing through injuries as well -- and they may prove to be players who have injury issues going forward.

Baseball is a long season. Is it any surprise that as the season winds to the finish line that players are more fatigued and dealing with injuries? Even the young ones, although for Pillar that has to do with his playing style and for Travis well he hurt his finger and those things just don't heal overnight. But for the vets on this team I think it's clear they're collectively fatigued.

And Jose after the preseason comments he made made that bed for himself. It's not like teams have to deal with free agents til after the season is done. I don't think they told them they were unwanted, just that they'd deal with it when the time comes. You've clearly always wanted to overpay them since day one. I don't think their performance warrants that enthusiasm. Just like Jose said he doesn't do home town discounts it goes both ways. The Jays don't need to give them sweetheart deals either.

I believe the Jays have the oldest roster in the league. Anyone care to confirm, rebut?

The Jays added one of the best pitchers at the deadline in Liriano (2.92 ERA / 0.7 fWAR generated in 8 starts plus a couple of relief appearances), and managed to snag a couple of prospects in the bargain. Compare that to Pomeranz (4.68 ERA / 0.4 fWAR), who would have cost the Jays an elite prospect or two.

They also swapped Storen for Benoit, who has pitched to a 0.38 ERA out of the Jays' bullpen.

And they at least made an effort to provide OF depth by trading for Upton (whom the O's were reportedly trying to acquire) at a price that many thought was a bargain.

All that after adding a 20-game winner in Happ, re-signing Estrada, drafting Biagini, trading bupkis for Grilli, and re-signing Carrera and Barney.

And keeping *all* of the Jays' better prospects.

Sure, adding Price in the off-season would have been great (in 2016 at least), but really, the front office has done a fine job of supporting the team this year. The recent front office additions look good, too.

I don’t get why you guys even disagree - you all agreed with management that this team wasn't worth investing anything else major in, and applauded them for not doing so. We all agree on what they did. Did you think that would have no impact on the team at all?

And even then, they could have handled it sensitively but instead managed to estrange their best players all the way back in spring training.

""I believe the Jays have the oldest roster in the league. Anyone care to confirm, rebut?"

they do. though that's mostly because of players new to the team this year.

I don't know about that narrative, uglyone. My impression is that this is a very cohesive and confident group that really likes playing in Toronto. It's not like a couple of years ago when Janssen and others openly complained about the lack of upgrades by Anthopoulos at the trade deadline.

There is zero evidence of that (unlike the mountains of evidence on aging curves) Do you have a shred of evidence that the players are estranged? Or just supposition?

Green gave a great rebuttal already to your point they didn't invest in the team. In fact they invested quite heavily. They just didn't get the people you want. Which other than Price who has been more than collectively outpitched by the guys they did get at a fraction of the risk I don't know who they are. You keep mentioning they should support the team more but you never name any players. Was there someone traded at the deadline this year who would have made a huge difference to the Jays over the players they did get?

Very bad time for the stars of the pen to perform badly. Osuna, Grilli. Benoit got injured.

Until we lose it I expect us to get 1 WC spot.

Bautista has had two DL stints this season. Donaldson has a hip injury. Pillar had a DL stint recently. Tulo and Martin are in their 30's and have played a lot, so while they might not be injured, fatigue/wear and tear can certainly factor in. And so on. As mentioned, it's a long season, and the Jays have an old(er) roster. Their September is probably a combination of running out of gas, regression, age, injury/playing hurt, etc. It's hard to pin point an exact reason, but dissatisfaction with the front office is probably the last thing I'd blame it on.

As far as commitment to winning, why would that be questioned? The FO added pieces at the deadline. They added pieces in the off-season. They kept the 2015 offense in tact save for swapping Revere for Saunders. They changed their plans after circumstances changed (Sanchez to the rotation after his great ST instead of Floyd/Chavez). They haven't done anything to show that they don't care about winning in 2016, certainly not enough for it to negatively impact the talent on the field.

Exhibit A for why the Jays are reluctant to re-sign Bautista and/or Encarnacion for what they want is Vernon Wells.

When Wells was 27, he was a Gold Glove centre fielder who hit 32 home runs, stole 17 bases in 21 tries, and batted .303. (He didn't walk much, but nobody's perfect). At 32, he was an offensive millstone, playing regularly with an OBP of .248. Three years after that, the New York Yankees and/or LA Angels were paying him $21 million to not play baseball for them. This is the outcome that Rogers is trying to avoid.

greenfrog - EE and Joey do love playing here, but have known they were unwanted goners from the start of the year. I'm not sure that's ideal.

If anything, it's the players themselves (and maybe the manager) who have put themselves at risk of missing the postseason. The brawl with the Yankees, as well as the overuse of Osuna, arguably cost the team at least one win in the Baltimore series. I think a roster that included Benoit and a healthy Travis (instead of Goins) would had had a good chance of winning the second game.

"I was just thinking about the game we lost," he says quietly during an interview by his locker afterwards. "I want to come back here again, one more time, I don’t want to leave here like that. I want to come back here to the playoffs and give everything I’ve got to the fans."

that's edwin last night.

something that boston fans never had to hear from the likes of pedroia and ortiz.

""There is zero evidence of that (unlike the mountains of evidence on aging curves) Do you have a shred of evidence that the players are estranged? Or just supposition?"

How do you fit into your narrative that most of our older players have done better this year than last year?

And my evidence? Just Joey's and EE's public frusttation all year.

Which older players have played better? You mean Tulo? Since Bautista, Martin, EE and Donaldson are all worse this year. The last month of stats do count.

I've not seen this frustration you speak of, other than Jose over being a sucky player. But I guess people see what they want to see.

uglyone - all I can say is thank goodness the Jays didn't capitulate and give Bautista a 5/125 or 6/150 contract last spring.

Encarnacion is a great hitter, but giving him a big contract would be a mistake at this point, in my view. He's going to go into decline, possibly as soon as next year, and he's going to get hurt more and more often. Should the Jays have offered, say, a 3/25 contract last off-season plus an option year? That might have been a good move, but hindsight is 20/20. He could easily have had an injury-marred 2-3 WAR (or worse, like Bautista) year this year.

You were right about one thing, though. Price has continued to be an elite starting pitcher, and having him (instead of Dickey) in the rotation would have helped the Jays be several wins better this year. Maybe as much as four wins better, if you also subtract Thole and add a better backup catcher.

The core four minus Tulo there are down about about 6 wins according to Fangraphs his year. Tulo is up like 0.2 War? How is this not declining?

No one doubted Price would be good. We were happy he sucked early on but odds are he's bounce back. But the question was never Price vs Dickey. It was Price vs Dickey + Happ + Estrada and the Jays destroyed the Sox in that trade off. But like SK has said innumerable times the rest of the team wasn't good enough to support a staff that is a full half fun better than anyone in the AL.

And yes I know arguments that Jays are rich enough to do both exist. But let's say for now Jays have to operate within thre budget given to them by the ownership.

This, precisely.

The Jays could not have done much better than they did with the money they've spent. But it is arguable that the team could have made exactly the same moves *and* added Price.

If they had, next year's rotation would be Price / Sanchez / Stroman / Happ / Estrada, with Liriano as #6. Which would have set the team up pretty nicely for continued success, even with the loss of Encarnacion and Bautista.

Once again a team managed by John Gibbons is underperforming - I think the Orioles have exceeded expectations in every season Showalter has been there.

Bautista, Edwin, Donaldson, Martin, and Tulo have a combined fWAR of 17.2 this season. Last season, it was 23.6. So as Kasi mentioned, a bit over a 6 WAR drop-off from the star players. That's significant and a big reason why they are tumbling into or completely out of a WC on the final weekend of the season rather than something better than that. On the slip side, the Red Sox saw nearly a 15 WAR improvement from Betts, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Bradley, Hanley, and Pedroia from 2015 to 2016. It explains a lot of why fortunes changed so quickly.

they aren't the only old players on the team.

Oh yeah like Grili, Benoit, Liriano, Happ, Estrada and so on? (Who have collectively been amazing)There is only so much you can blame Smoak and Upton given their rather limited innings. Dickey sure has been worse than we'd like for a number five starter, but he hasn't been a catastrophe either. Anyway SK was right in that the elite guys who are the core of this team have drastically declined.

Issues of this team are in some order:
1. Core declined, especially Jose
2. Colabelos production never replaced
3. Bullpen inconsistent. It was bad, than really good now back to a bit below average as pitchers are wearing down.
4. Horrible base running

All of that together wasn't able to be counteracted with wonderful starting pitching.

yes - i would think we'd include the "old" guys who improved under your age narrative.


and again, you always seem to forget that the team is and has been in a playoff spot for the majority of the season.

Sure and SK and me always said they'd contend this year. Our difference with you was with next year where you seem to be much more optimistic about going forward. But the difference between the old guys Shapiro signed and the ones he inherited and you want to resign is length of contract. All those old guys minus Happ are off the books this year or next. Not so much for our position players, which is why we've been so adamant in not resigning Jose or EE to long term deals.

their deals will be 3-4yrs, like Happ's.

Jose isn't worth that same with Saunders. EE sure if the price is right. My prediction for those 5 players who are getting about 18.5 fwar this year is 15 next. 6 from Josh, 3 from EE and 6 combined between the other three. One will surprise and bounce back in that group but one will fall off a cliff too.

all i know is after leading the league in attendance and raising prices, that money better be spent somewhere. and hopefully not on uptons and bruces.

and i'll still laugh when you guys praise the red sox and their new DH.

Unless you guys are hoping to just sign filler every year until our spanking brand new elite core is ready to contend in 2023.

Or are you guys saying we have a better chance of contendjng the next couple years by spending the money elsewhere?

Or are you guys saying we can't contend until we draft a new core so we shouldn't spend any money until that core comes? and even when that core comes, still don't commit any money longterm?

Or are you arguing that we can build a new younger core in place for the next 3-4yrs?

it's confusing.

lotsa rain in boston this weekend.

Ortiz's homer and Kim's homer are the two things that stand out this season with three games (and possibly more) left to play. That said, there's plenty of time for the team to change that... or to add a third crippling HR to nail down the Jays not making the playoffs.

I'd like to see all of Gibbons/Dickey/Thole/EE/Bautista/Saunders/Cecil all move on in an amicable way. For 2017 aim for some "good enough to surprise" signings in the off-season and plan on giving Pompey a shot at a job in April. There's enough talent on the team to be in WC contention next year and that's fine. Time to remodel, no need to cling to the recent past.

I don't think anyone disagrees that the Jays couldn't spend more. However they're owned by a corporation and that is where management gets their budget from. I'm not going to blame them for Rogers not giving them more money.

On the core comment there has been some really good signs this season with the FO moves they've made that they're fixing the Jays biggest weakness, internal development of players. If they sign filler like Happ and Estrada every year I'll be ecstatic. I expect them to pick and choose players they can get that will improve the team without making long risky deals.

As for your questions.

1. Yes signing three old DHs is not a wise move. Resign one of them and move on from the other 2. (Obviously prefer we keep EE based on this years numbers but I think getting a two year Jose contract might be the best deal)

2. I expect them to try to contend as long as they think it's possible. I don't want them to pump 150 million dollars into a bunch of aging players. So if the time comes I want them to do what NY did this year. Sell off the vets and accelerate their rebuild. Jays fans are certainly aware of what 85-87 win seasons are. Not to mention with NY and Boston lately that won't be near enough.

3. Easy. If they sold off the core this offseason they could be back in playoff contention in a couple years. Look at what NY got for some relievers. Not saying they should do this, but if the FO believes this core is past the window it is what they will do. The big thing here is the FO improvements on player development.

""Easy. If they sold off the core this offseason they could be back in playoff contention in a couple years. "

ah. there it is.

you think if they sold everyone now, we could be a young contender in a couple years.

then why aren't you arguing to sell everyone now?

and, more importantly, if we are selling off anyone we can to rebuild with kids, how does it hurt that rebuild to sign Joey and EE?

A lot easier to sell off vets when you're pretty much out of contention at the trade deadline. Pretty hard to justify when you're in contention I'd say.

but come this offseason - it's gotta be the right time to sell Donaldson, no?

not to mention Happ and Estrada.

maybe Pillar too?

Because I think they can be competitive the next couple years and i'd rather see if than 100 loss years. So on one hand I think they'd be better off with a full rebuild in the long term, but it would have some costs I'm not willing to take. I think it would hurt the brand tanking like that, it would hurt ticket sales, it would likely hurt the budget since tanks aren't expensive and I don't trust Rogers to ramp payroll back up once we decrease it, because I don't like the idea of tanking and lastly I think the Jays could do better.

Which is why I support reinvestment in the farm system along with targeted FA signings and resignings to bridge the team until player development gets online. So I don't oppose resigning any of our guys as long as the term is not long. Also in that period of the Jays are out of it at deadlines I expect them to sell wisely and get value from desperate teams.

Pillar would be a good player to dangle to see what another team would part with; if there's a player to be had like Chapman (but not Chapman), go for it. With Pompey around and Upton as an insurance policy he's is probably the team's most replaceable part.

Watching Pillar feels like Reed Johnson 2.0 a useful player whom some of the Jays fanbase have an attachment to that outstrips his surplus value to the team.

Well, if you're tanking the next two years you won't be needing Osuna, and given the aging curve for hard-throwing relievers there's no guarantee he'll be any good when you plan to contend. So he's an obvious trade candidate.

If they win the World Series I'm getting this thread framed.

Pillar is probably expendable, if you think Pompey could fill his shoes. I wouldn't so optimistic that Upton is an everyday player, though. There's quite a good article here about Upton's batting while in TO:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/30/melvin-upton-jr-solved-half-of-one-problem/

Well nothing of what is discussed here in this thread has much to do with this season. We know the Jays have flaws but they're likely going to make the WC game and is they can win that they've got as good a chance as anyone. Baseball playoffs are not predictable. Plenty of WC winners have won the whole thing and we all know how the Jays can look when two or three of the mashers in it get hot at the same time. Only need three good weeks to win the whole thing and we do have the starting pitching to keep us in most games.

I have the same view of next season (and beyond) as Kasi noted above. This is not the NBA. You don't need to tank in order to win down the road. Baseball is a game where you can have a top 5 MLB team and top 5 farm system at the same time without sacrificing one for the other. That's the goal the Jays should, and likely will, have going forward. The Liriano trade is a prime example of that.

As far as this off-season, short term deals in order to bide time for young players/prospects. If they can add young players, then great, but if not, then try to get as much value as possible (in the mold of Happ/Estrada) in free agency, or maybe there's a position player equivalent to Liriano that the Jays could trade for/buy low on from a team looking to dump salary. Ultimately, just look for good short-term value. The long-term value is going to come internally. It might take a few years to get to that point, but that should be the goal.

I'm not expecting them to hang with the Red Sox next season, but if they can remain competitive, maybe steal a WC spot, and still focus on player development/the farm system at the same time over the next two years, then that would be ideal. Trading Donaldson should only happen if the team is ready to pack it up, but given the attendance figures this season, I doubt that's an option, and it shouldn't have to be.

Chris Taylor Pillar= Reed Johnson. I see that. Very good insight IMO.

Uglyone I don't think you are serious about trading JD, Happ and Estrada. Also Pillar. Sarcasm? But if it happens and I see logic in that as a rebuild/cost cutting master plan. Then you are a genius. I actually see Happ or Estrada being traded because they would bring in a massive haul of prospects or something to fill the holes for 2017.

Lastly Alex Obal....... I see Osuna as a definite Ace. That is my committed strong belief. Of course he may not become an Ace SP. Foretelling an Ace SP is ridiculous. I do it expecting to be wrong but hoping to be right.

I am after all a big Blue Jay fan. Cheers to all.

It's not over yet.

Also, sheer volume of posts does not have any correlation to accuracy or credibility. Baseball professionals are running this team.

I think the last two games have gotten all of us down, especially the lacklustre effort last night. I think we all agree we are going to see a different looking team next year, but there is still this season to finish.

This is not the NBA. You don't need to tank in order to win down the road.

You don't even need to do it in the NBA.

Once again a team managed by John Gibbons is underperforming - I think the Orioles have exceeded expectations in every season Showalter has been there.

If you're going by Pythagorean record you're right. The Yankees under Girardi are another team that have been exceeding expectations for a few years now.

One run feels insurmountable.

I think we all agree we are going to see a different looking team next year.

It's going to be mostly the same team, but if Gibbons is gone, it's going to look like a different team.

"... or to add a third crippling HR to nail down the Jays not making the playoffs. "

That's the one.

Well, EE,Bautista,Saunders,Cecil,Dickey and Thole could potentially be all gone, plus others,so that's why I thought it would be a different looking team.

I agree Island Boy. Also I expect the pen to be very different. Hopefully stronger.

I still don't get it - the same people who literally just warned us of the dangers of being a "perennial 85-87 win team" are now saying not to do a full rebuild.

The same guys who keep talking about aging curves are now arguing that we shouldn't trade a 31yr old Donaldson, 34yr old Happ, and 33yr old Estrada when their values are at a peak.