Yeah, it's a pressure cooker, that's for sure.

If we can get a split out of this series, I think that'd be great. It would more or less eliminate the Yanks. Another win against the Orioles, and one against the Sox, and we're at 87 wins, which would give us a decent chance. 88 should just about lock down a wildcard spot.. As long as the Twins/As/Angels don't just roll over and play dead..

Tabler: "Gardner has always been tough on the Blue Jays"

(Graphic immediately appears indicating that Gardner is 4/43 (.093) against the Jays this year)

"Gardner has always been tough on the Blue Jays"

Maybe the director has a wicked sense of humour? (Although Gardner really had been pretty good against the Jays until this season.)

This Liriano guy is pretty good. Think he'll be a pretty good fifth starter next year.

This version of Liriano as a fifth starter next year...well, you could do a lot worse.

they noted that this was Tulo's 163rd game as a Jay today.

His 1st 162:

686pa, 29hr, 90rbi, 99wrc+, 3.8fwar, 4.3bwar, 4.1awar

Well, that was a good start!

Not a lot of Crybaby stuff about David Price tonight? Why not?

'Super Stud' David Price gave up 5 runs in his 6 innings on the weekend. The "worst pitcher in baseball" gave up 0. Maybe we can get some cut-and-pastes from fangraphs to tell us how this is all luck.

That was an... interesting strike zone.

But who cares! Jays win!

That was an... interesting strike zone.

The ball that Donaldson got, was the worst call I've ever seen. Eric Gregg WS included.

that time when a post about crybaby posts was an epic crybaby post.

Barnes might be good for one of the relief job next year.
They have a 3M option on Grilli which is probably worth doing.
Benoit is an 8M guy though. That's a bit much.
They'll have to find a reliable lefty.

Most relievers are failed starters. Biagini had a great year at AA, except that at 25, he was a bit old.
He's a 26th round pick that never had much success at A ball. But he's a workhorse.
He looks like a gorilla, tall, strong shoulders, long arms. He even beats his chest.
A good starter cost around 15M.  A middle reliever around 2.
Stretching him in Buffalo is a no brainer.  They can bring him up mid-year if everybody is healthy.
And there's some hope that Liriano will work out after all.

Reese Mcguire might not be far from a backup catcher job.
He's a left bat who hits for average and he's supposedly a very good defensive catcher.

A good night, but it looks like everybody else also won.

see, for me a 25yr old in AA already is a failed starter.

I think the Jays' starters all have 5 days rest this series.

A good night, but it looks like everybody else also won.

Mad comeback by the Angels with 6 in the top of the 9th to beat Houston 10-6. As far as the Jays are concerned, knock another 2 off the "Wild Card Elimination Number", since they're 1 game up on Detroit. That means, as far as passing the Jays to knock them out of the playoffs, the magic numbers are:
KC   1
NYY 4
Hou 5
Sea  6
Bal  7
Det doesn't matter - someone has to be the other wildcard..


One more win this series, and KC's done, and the Yanks are more or less done.

Great convincing win tonight. The offense is looking a bit better outside of the 2-1 dud on Wednesday.

I'm probably dreaming here, but I'd still like to face the Red Sox in the last series down 3 or less... who has the tiebreaker advantage?

If there is a tie for the division, then they play a tiebreaker game. Head-to-head would determine the home team. The season series is 8-8.

I forgot! Yesterday was the 108th anniversary of Merkle's Boner, which played a key part in helping the Cubs reach the 1908 World Series. You know, the last time they won one. In truth, it was one of the most boneheaded calls by an umpire in the history of the game. But that's not how the New York Times wrote it up the next day:

Censurable stupidity on the part of player Merkle...

The paper of record!

see, for me a 25yr old in AA already is a failed starter.

That's a weird attitude to have. Once you succeed at the MLB level, the minor league record doesn't mean anything.
You were just saying we need good players, not young players and 26 is definitively not old. Especially when you have 3 option years left.

Happ pitched  for the Lynx here in Ottawa. He wasn't any good. Now he's a 20 game winner.

A part, but each team had 15 more games to play and they ended up tied at 98-55 a piece, so  I don't know how key that really was.

I don't understand the part where the Pirates forced a makeup game with the Cubs which they lost given them a 98-56 record while the Cubs stayed at 98-55.  Anyone can explain that one?

Well nevermind, the final standing was

Cubs 99-55
Giants 98-55
Pirates 98-56

It's weird that they didn't make all teams play the same number of games.
The Giants could have very well lost an extra games no matter whom they had to play.

Isn't weird that Baltimore's backup catcher, Caleb Joseph is hitting .178 .221 .202 with 0 homers and 0 RBI and they didn't bother to improve on that down the stretch?

that time when a post about crybaby posts was an epic crybaby post.

Crybaby posts are rarely individually 'epic'. They come in groups of hundreds, an internet temper tantrum by a three-year old stomping his little feet because the Blue Jays didn't sign David Price. Accompanied by some childishness about 'Shapkins', and garnished with some lies about a '27%' season ticket price increase.

That was an... interesting strike zone.

Pitchtrak or whatever it's called, showed balls right down the middle.
Some of those were just pitches that ended up in the strikezone, but totally missed the target.

For most of the game, Liriano was smiling happily. Even my wife commented on that.
He looked like a kid.

'Super Stud' David Price gave up 5 runs in his 6 innings on the weekend. The "worst pitcher in baseball" gave up 0. Maybe we can get some cut-and-pastes from fangraphs to tell us how this is all luck.

Price is actually having a terrific end of season and is 8-1 in August and September. 4 7 innings games, 2 8 innings games.

That's a weird attitude to have.

It's particularly weird coming from someone who has spent the season repeatedly complaining because Anthopoulos is no longer the GM (and of course, the Blue Jays didn't sign David Price), after AA left a remainders bin for a farm system for nothing more than two-month rentals and a pricey former star in decline.

It turns out that the only one in the Blue Jays' farm system who made the top 9 at any position in MLB Pipeline's minor league positional ranking in the Toronto farm system is.... the 25 year old catcher at AA.

Here are the Blue Jays in the mid-season Pipeline ranking of the top 10 prospects by position:

c - Reece McGuire 4th of 10.
1b - Tellez 10th of 10.
2b - Nobody. Hopefully Bichette will make the list next year.
3b - Nobody
ss - Nobody. Hopefully Urenas will make the list next year.
of - Nobody
RHP - Nobody
LHP - Nobody

reese mcguire is 21.

I'm guessing Liriano loves this pitching in front of a full house in a pennant race stuff. After all he pitched in Minnesota (consistently around 10th in attendance until his last year or two there when they moved), and in Pittsburgh (not known for big crowds - 9th in NL best they've done since Barry Bonds played for them). His brief time in ChiSox town was a team that got under 2 million fans. So this is really his first time throwing for a team with a big fan base. From everything I've read players much prefer a big full house to a half empty one.

""That's a weird attitude to have. Once you succeed at the MLB level, the minor league record doesn't mean anything."

I don't think it's weird - like you said, failed starters can often turn into good relievers.

I'd be hard pressed to find any 25yr old AA pitcher who became a good mlb starter. But i'm sure there are a number who have become good relievers.

"/Crybaby posts are rarely individually 'epic'. They come in groups of hundreds, an internet temper tantrum by a three-year old stomping his little feet because the Blue Jays didn't sign David Price. Accompanied by some childishness about 'Shapkins', and garnished with some lies about a '27%' season ticket price increase."

when is the last time I brought up price and why are you crying about this after we demolished the yankees in a tight playoff race with 9 games left in the season?

are you upset because i spent the last few days arguing with the "this playoff team is a doomed disaster that has to be blown up this offseason" crowd?

Benoit is an 8M guy though. That's a bit much.

I think/hope the Blue Jays will re-sign Benoit to something slightly less. His season with the Blue Jays has been nothing short of remarkable and I always feel he's the most reliable reliable reliever they have. In his 22.2 innings so far he has given up 1 earned run, for a 0.40 ERA. The bullpen remake this year has turned out rather well.

The thing with Benoit is that the Jays are using in the 7th.  He might be able to get a closer offer somewhere on a 1 year deal.
It really depends what he cares about. Money? City of his choosing? Racking up more saves? Retiring on a high note?
He's an easy going guy, but he's hard to read.

Cecil seems to be back on track and his poor year this year probably knocked his contract demands down a few notches. He should be a definite target I think.

This may have already been mentioned and discussed. 538.com did a bullpen management assessment of the ten best and worst among those who managed a bullpen for 5 years since 2000. Eric Wedge and John Gibbons each made a list. What interested me most, was Ozzie Guillen. He's available and would likely be welcomed in Toronto.

"Crybaby posts are rarely individually 'epic'. They come in groups of hundreds, an internet temper tantrum by a three-year old stomping his little feet because the Blue Jays didn't sign David Price. Accompanied by some childishness about 'Shapkins', and garnished with some lies about a '27%' season ticket price increase"

For the record, this post denouncing those of us who wanted to resign Price is not a crybaby post, this is trolling, indeed a perfect exemplar of it.  A particularly unpleasant and nasty example of it indeed, made ironic by the fact that the poster is certain that they are not, in fact, a troll, but rather a brave champion of the truth.  Of course, many trolls are such because they do not know that they are trolling.   

Agreed with those that see Biagini to Buffalo - a quality 6th starter may easily have more value than a RP even if he only makes a few starts.  Of course if he's not needed at all, call him up for the pen midseason like Scottt suggested.  I like Biagini, but  he's not a huge blow IMO - this year's Liam Hendricks.  It also gives us a chance to see what we've got in Tepera, Barnes, Scultz, Girodo, Dermody etc - assuming we add some cheap vets to the mix we should be able to field a solid pen. 

I'm also in agreement with Kasi and others that Liriano looks like a quality 5th starter right now - super fun to watch him pitching on his game last night.  Nothing beats a strong pitching performance in a playoff race IMO. 

Sanchez and Stro are young and strong, but hard to believe one of our veteran guys wont miss some time.

It's a beauty day for a playoff race - Go Jays!

For the record, this post denouncing those of us who wanted to resign Price is not a crybaby post, this is trolling

Well, "for the record" you don't establish 'the record.' But if you'd like to find a nasty piece of work (as opposed to someone who long ago lost patience with the Price temper tantrum, recently morphed into an obsession about Upton), check out the one who told pubster to "crawl back into his hole". And who was fairly rude to Kasi in the last thread.

"....Liriano looks like a quality 5th starter right now...."

Better than a 5th starter, actually.  He has a 3.35 ERA and a 3.81 xFIP as a Jay.   Five of his seven starts have been quality starts.  His biggest problem as a Pirate this year was his control, but he has dramatically reduced his walks since the trade, giving up only 15 walks in 43 innings as a Jay.  And he has a 8.8 K/9 as a Jay.

Interestingly, Liriano attributes a lot of his success to Russell Martin. "He knows how to mix the pitches," Liriano said after last night's game. "That's been helping me a lot lately."

CBDC, disagreeing with Kasi's logic is a far cry from trolling.  However, I can quote you the definition of trolling from whichever dictionary you like, and I believe that would be considered objective, or 'for the record'.  This isn't a matter of opinion.  You frequently troll people and have a long history of it.  Out of nowhere you spring this:

"an internet temper tantrum by a three-year old stomping his little feet because the Blue Jays didn't sign David Price. Accompanied by some childishness about 'Shapkins', and garnished with some lies"

There is more hostile invective in this solitary phrase then there has been in my entire career on the Box, and I've happily admitted to being out of line when I've overstated things in the past. 

Be nicer please.

I'm gonna leave Pubster out of this. 

I don't know how many have noticed it, but the Blue Jays' starters have been terrific lately. In the last 8 games, using 6 different starters, no starter has surrendered more than 2 earned runs, and, collectively, they've given up just 8 earned runs in 47 innings for an ERA of 1.53. So far so good for Stroman today, too. The only 3 losses in those 8 games, the team scored a total of 2 runs combined. Now, if the batters can just crank it up a notch...

I think 3 of those 8 starts were by pitchers with a lot of extra rest (RAD, FL, AS).

A lot of late afternoon shadows today.  The schedule I printed before the season had today a 1pm start.  I haven't read this anywhere, but I'm wondering if they changed the start time to 4pm so that the baseball and hockey crowds would not be competing for the nearby restaurants at the same time.  (The hockey game is at 7pm.)

Paging the Blue Jays offense...

At this point, I think it's likely that every game from here until the end is a game that needs to be won. Even the season finale is likely to have home field in the Wild Card at stake. So here's how everyone's rotations shake out from now til then:

        TOR        DET         BAL        HOU        SEA

SAT 24  Stroman    Norris     Miley       Peacock    Miranda
SUN 25  Estrada    Boyd       Bundy       Musgrove   Walker
MON 26  Happ       Farmer     -----       McHugh     Iwakuma
TUE 27  Sanchez    Verlander  Gausman     Fiers      Hernandez
WED 28  Liriano    Fulmer     Jimenez     Fister     Paxton
THU 29  Stroman    Norris     Tillman     -----      Miranda
FRI 30  Estrada    Boyd       Gallardo    Peacock    Walker
SAT  1  Happ       Farmer     Miley       Musgrove   Iwakuma
SUN  2  Sanchez    Verlander  Bundy       McHugh     Hernandez

Both Baltimore and Detroit have some question marks in the rotation over these final days, but they'd be able to line up Tillman or Fulmer for the one game playoff. Toronto would have Liriano and Stroman ready to go.

Apparently, Bautista is still clutch..

Josh is the MVP, Eddie is awesome.....but Joey is still the man.

Exit velocity: 111 mph. Three days after he pulled a 99 mph heater down the line in the twilight.

Might still have some game left.

Paging the Blue Jays offense...

We're here! We were hiding in Kevin Pillar's bat where no one would think to look for us.

Today's stars: Stroman, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Bautista, Osuna (and Grilli).

Somewhere, Anthopoulos is feeling (justifiably) proud.

Give that man all of the money.

Detroit loses, Jays win. Perfect day if Baltimore loses.

Today's stars: Stroman, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Bautista, Osuna (and Grilli).

heck, Navarro belongs on that list for that caught stealing - I thought he had no chance.

NYY has been shut out for 2 straight games. Rare but probably not a record.

NYY has been shut out for 2 straight games. Rare but probably not a record.

I guess you missed the broadcast and twitter? They were shut out the game before this series as well. Last time they were shut out 3 in a row (before today) was 1975.. 4 in a row might be a record..

this was the demoralized heartbroken NYY team I was hoping for.

Yes - and that's the same demoralized team that Baltimore will be playing on the final weekend of the season, while the Jays are in Fenway. That's one reason why winning tomorrow's game, and the subsequent series against the O's, remains very important for the Jays.

Pedroia two-out grand slam, now 6-3 Boston over TB.

I missed this one, but it's looking like Jose might be back. If so, I like our odds of getting the wildcard and maybe winning the wildcard game.

I'm glad to see the Yankees struggle. They were killing it not too long ago, but the kids have come back to earth a bit or something. But there was always the chance they'd stay hot the rest of the season, which worried me when they were playing well. It appears that's not the case.

Let's go Tampa Bay!

I've seen a lot of pitchers wear uniform number 37 since Dave Stieb's career ended, but Grilli is the first pitcher who looks like the number belongs on him. He was a Jays fan growing up - I wonder if he asked for #37, knowing its history?

Great wins against the Yankees, who look like they might never score a run ever again.

I wonder if he asked for #37

Maybe. He'd been wearing 39 ever since he made it back to the majors in 2011, but it's not available here.

Geez, Ray Searage hasn't exactly raised Drew Hutchison's game.

The Red Sox are never going to lose again.

The front office has done pretty well augmenting this year's pitching staff, hasn't it? Since taking over, the powers-that-be have signed, drafted, or traded for Happ, Estrada, Biagini, Grilli, Benoit, and Liriano.

They've also added a couple of duds (Chavez, Storen), but the acquisition cost for those players was minimal and they traded them fairly quickly once it became clear they weren't working out.

They took a fair bit of heat for some of the players acquired - Happ and Liriano, in particular - but those two players have pitched a very respectable 224.1 IP for the team, generating 3.5 fWAR and a 22-6 W-L record.

The one player I think this team is missing is someone like Zobrist. A savvy, versatile veteran who can hit well and play multiple positions competently, and add some veteran leadership to a win-now team.

Angels taking it to the Astros AGAIN. Last night, 6 in the top of the 9th to win. Today, 4 in the top of the 8th and 5 in the top of the 9th..

Assuming it holds up (10-4 in the bottom of the 9th now), that should mostly take care of the Astros chances..

So, the Angels didn't do us any favors, but they're not doing any for other teams either..

I'm not sure that they need another veteran. Or someone who can play multiple positions.
I wouldn't mind Montero's bat against lefties. And a better platoon in the outfield.
It's ridiculous that a lineup of right handed hitters can't hit lefties like that.
They just don't hit for average enough  since Donaldson got into this funk.
Carrera started that huge inning yesterday with a bunt.

It's kinda like Trumbo who has lots of homeruns but play poor defense and doesn't hit for average.
So in the end he's only a 1.2 bWAR player.

I only watched the CG, but it looked to me the Yankees played some pretty nifty infield defense to snuff out potential rallies. It is encouraging to see the team making more contact the past five games.

Even more encouraging (for both his own financial interests, and the Jays chances) is the fact that, as Magpie mentioned, Bautista finally looks to be healthy again. A week ago out on the west coast, it looked like his final (probable) act as a Blue Jay would be diminished. The complexion of the season has hopefully changed now, as obviously they are a much different team with him at his best.

Donaldson also looks rejuvenated. Could mean nothing, but he made a difficult turn of a double play in this game (playing shortstop because of the shift) that I thought showed more nimbleness than he's shown in awhile. Also JD seems to be getting down the line with much less difficulty than he was earlier this season.

Scott, Zobrist hits both LHP and RHP very well (125 wRC+ against lefties this year). He can play the infield and the outfield, and he's been worth 3.6 WAR this year, which would rank 3rd on the Jays. He also has ample postseason experience. Given the Jays' weakness at the bottom of the order and bench weakness, Zobrist seems like exactly the kind of player who could help put them team over the top - far more than someone like Montero.

Zobrist has been my dream acquisition for a few years now - AA was pushing hard to get him at the trade deadline last year, and he signed a very affordable FA deal with no comp pick this off season, but the Cubs obviously love the guy so i can put that pipe dream to rest.

Any Zobrist-light types out there?

Right now though, I still like this roster to make a legit push in the playoffs, but how in the heck did we get 5.5 games back?  Damn 10 game winning streak....

Jose Fernandez is dead.

Dreadful news. Only 24 years old.

Saw the headline and was hoping there was another guy with the same name I hadn't heard of...which would still be terrible of course. I always picture the classic highlight with Tulo...line drive catch, big smile, having fun. There will be a lot of heavy hearts out there today. Last start was 8 shutout innings with 12 K.

My thoughts go to Fernandez's pregnant girlfriend.

Very sad news. Really poor judgement tearing around in a boat in the dark,though.

No doubts Zobrist can can still hit. I'm just saying the Jays don't really need a super utility guy.
They need an outfielder, a DH and a first baseman.

The Cubs have him under contract for another 3 years and he's exactly what they need: a veteran utility player who can spell a bunch of young position players.

What I'd like to see is another guy who hits like Travis; .300 average rather then .250 plus walks and power.
Harold Ramrez could be that, but his defense is highly suspect.

"They need an outfielder, a DH and a first baseman"

Zobrist has played the following positions in his career: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 2B, LF, CF, RF, PH.

Clearly, that is a player the Jays would have little use for as they try to make (and advance in) the postseason. Much better to find someone who is limited to OF, DH and 1B.

Not hitting Pineda in this game won't be fatal if the Jays can make him throw 20 pitches an inning. They fell off that pace a bit in the third inning, though. Probably he'll end up throwing about six innings in this one.

I'm talking about next year. They're obviously not making any trades with 7 games left in the season.

Painful to watch Carrera and Travis strike out on a series of pitches with only 1 in the strike zone.

In what inning will the Jays score their first run of this game? Over/Under set at 7.5

Hahah, I actually thought as I was typing that "watch Jose homer here."

Jesus, if Bautista is back it's better than any trade deadline move.

Irritating PA by Carrera there. Travis, pick him up.

Carrera cannot hit RHP while Smoak's only real value comes from being league average against righties, so Carrera batting at all in that spot was more irritating than the result.

Options (you be the manager):

1. Straight steal attempt by Upton
2. Hit and run Upton with Pillar at the dish
3. Bunt Upton to second
4. None of the above

I vote for #1.

Rally time.

Great comeback!

Huge win.

Options (you be the manager):

You needed one more: 5. All of the above. In the course of the Pillar at bat, they went through all four of your options!

2-2 Boston-TB after 9 innings. Sure would be nice to scrape to within three games entering the final series of the season.

2 weeks ago everyone was raving about the yanks' young talent, now all they have is Sanchez.

upton's walk was the best thing he's done as a jay.

Matt Boyd did not have a good start for Detroit:

IP H R ER BB K HR

0.0 5 4 4 0 0 1

"....Carrera cannot hit RHP...."

He did pretty well against RHP in the 9th inning.  And he showed why Gibbons is playing him ahead of Upton these days.  He can do more things than Upton.

With the Tigers loss and the Jays victory, I'd say the Jays have virtually clinched a playoff spot.  They are 3 games ahead of the Tigers, with just 7 games to go.  It would take a collapse of near-historic proportions for the Jays to miss the playoffs.

Finally the Jays sweep a series, and not too soon. New York's season is almost officially dead.

Kind of annoying that they again struggled to score runs off the starter, but at least Jose is hitting again.

We can still reach last year's win total!

"....Finally the Jays sweep a series...."

Technically there's still a game left in the series, tomorrow night....

Blast, you're right! I jumped the gun.

"....We can still reach last year's win total!...."

I'll also be watching to see if J.A. Happ can tie Roy Halladay for the team record for most wins in a season.  Who would have imagined, in 2013 or 2014, that we would ever be able to type a sentence like that one?

Upon's score the only runs in a game earlier.

Well that was entertaining.

">With the Tigers loss and the Jays victory, I'd say the Jays have virtually clinched a playoff spot. They are 3 games ahead of the Tigers, with just 7 games to go. It would take a collapse of near-historic proportions for the Jays to miss the playoffs."

Somebody go steal Bill Madlock's passport, just to be safe.

New York's odds of winning a wild card are not even a tenth of 1 percent at this point.

Detroit are in a  bad spot now. They play Cleveland next
That still puts the pressure on the Jays and Orioles to keep winning to stay ahead of Houston and Seattle and their softer schedule.

"Tigers...Jays...playoff spot...collapse of near-historic proportions for the Jays to miss the playoffs."

ach.

It was a great weekend of baseball for the Jays, and I like the team's chances of earning a WC berth, but the fact remains that they haven't won anything yet. They'll be finishing the season in Fenway, where they'll be playing a red-hot Red Sox team that may have an interest in knocking the Jays -- who may be Boston's stiffest competition in the AL -- out of the postseason before it begins. And Baltimore, while beatable, is a pesky team that is capable of winning or sweeping a series against Toronto.

Should be a fun week.

They are 3 games ahead of the Tigers, with just 7 games to go. It would take a collapse of near-historic proportions

You're not as old as I am, I suddenly think.

Nice that Sportsnet is giving us Vin Scully's last game from Dodger Stadium, which just happens to be the day when the Dodgers can clinch their division. We're even getting extra innings. Some small comfort on a very sad day to be a baseball fan.

And now the old man is calling two games at once for his listeners, as he's now giving them play by play of Padres-Giants. And now the Dodgers walk it off for him.

When Vin Scully started broadcasting baseball, Connie Mack was managing the A's. Connie Mack. Born when Abraham Lincoln was the president.

If E-Rod is beginning to harness his talent (today he had 13:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP), he could make an already imposing Red Sox team even better next year. Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, and Rodriguez look like a very good starting five, and of course the team has an elite core of talent on the positional player side (plus young talent percolating up to the majors in players like Swihart, Benintendi, and Moncada).

In the unsung heroes dept., Benoit has now pitched in 25 games (23.2 innings) for the Jays. He's allowed exactly one run over that stretch.

Storen has actually been pretty solid for the M's, but Benoit has been lights-out for Toronto.

I was at today's game, and Benoit today was the slowest-working reliever I've ever seen. It took him about ten minutes to retire Gary Sanchez. I can't really blame him, given the circumstances, but it would have been hard for the infielders to stay at maximum alertness throughout the at-bat.

This really was a game of inches. Osuna should have gotten a strikeout with his first at-bat, but one of his strikes was called outside. And Edwin's game-winning hit was about an eight-bounce grounder to second, but it found a hole.

They are 3 games ahead of the Tigers, with just 7 games to go. It would take a collapse of near-historic proportions

Anyone younger than 29 was not born yet when the collapse of 1987 happened. I feel a need to lie down now.

eh don't psych yourself out.

Wright was terrible for most of the 2nd half (5.06era) after his insane 1st half and I imagine the 32yr old never has been is terrible going forward.

Pomeranz has been pretty terrible since returning to the AL (as an aside - he's pretty much doing exactly what i thought happ would do back here), and doesn't have much track record of success either.

Erod's career so far is perfectly mediocre, as is his stuff, as is his milb track record:

MLB: 40gs, 5.6ip/gs, 97era-, 102fip-, 106xfip, 2.0awar/32gs
AAA: 86.1ip, 3.03era, 3.31fip
AA: 179.2ip, 3.81era, 3.36fip


But Price is studly for sure. And Porcello might be too.

Career Numbers as SP (age as of next year):

Price (31): 246gs, 6.7ip/gs, 80era-, 82fip-, 82xfip-, 4.8awar/32gs
Porcello (28): 240gs, 6.1ip/gs, 100era-, 96fip-, 94xfip-, 2.6awar/32gs
Wright (32): 35gs, 6.1ip/gs, 80era-, 98fip-, 110xfip-, 2.9awar/32gs
Rodriguez (23): 40gs, 5.6ip/gs, 97era-, 102fip-, 106xfip, 2.0awar/32gs
Pomeranz (28): 79gs, 5.0ip/gs, 96era-, 103fip-, 102xfip-, 2.2awar/32gs

I agree with uglyone. I don't fear Boston's pitching much this or next year.  I think the whole team is way over its head at the moment. And fortunately for the Blue Jays -- they're peaking just a little too early! (Ha ha ha!)

Go Bautista!

Ugly, no one is getting psyched out - just making an observation. You might notice that I made no comment about how good the Jays will be next year.

And didn't you predict (pre-season and in-season) that Boston (+192 run differential / 17-5 this month) would be mediocre this year? Does that dent your self-confidence about predicting how good they'll be going forward? It seems to me that for some reason you perennially need Boston to be worse than they actually are.

nah, who knew that Ort would have his 2nd best season ever at age 40? or they'd get elite performances from nothings like Wright and Leon? or that they'd ride a .324 team babip all year? Good for them, but that stuff is most likely a healthy dose of good fortune.

though at least they have a front office with the cojones to go big.

and hey, they've been a perennial last place team - I haven't needed them to be any worse than that.

When Vin Scully started broadcasting baseball, Connie Mack was managing the A's. Connie Mack. Born when Abraham Lincoln was the president.

I assumed this was hyperbole, but oh my God, it's the truth. It seems almost impossible to believe!

and hey, they've been a perennial last place team - I haven't needed them to be any worse than that.

Uh, they did kinda win the World Series three years ago.

"Benoit has now pitched in 25 games (23.2 innings) for the Jays. He's allowed exactly one run over that stretch."

Oh, but that run he allowed... Why did it have to be that...

I didn't realize that people were still so traumatized by the 1987 collapse.   Let's put it this way:  if the Jays are unable to win 3 of their final 7 games, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.    (Three wins against Baltimore and the Red Sox should easily be enough to clinch the playoffs. In fact two wins will probably be enough.)

So where does the game today against the Yankees factor in ? If the Jays sweep, will they need just two more wins? Personally I think it will be best if something is on the line for them right to the end. Last years clinching with a handful of games remaining led to backups playing and losing two games and generally the season ended on a weak note. This continued into the first round of the playoffs until the Jays finally found their feet again and beat Texas.

Sorry, I meant to say "three wins against the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox."   In other words, 3 wins in 7 games should be easily enough for the Jays to clinch a playoff spot, even if the Tigers or Astros or Mariners win the vast majority of their remaining games.  

Actually the mathematicians among us will be able to crunch the numbers better than me.  But the Jays odds of making the playoffs are overwhelming now, unless they completely tank.   And can we get over 1987 yet?

Next year the Red Sox should have full seasons from Swihart, Benintendi, and Moncada...and quite possibly one of Encarnacion or Bautista. I doubt they're too worried about the impact of BABIP regression on their offense.

I also think there is a good chance Rich Hill ends up in the Red Sox rotation next year. Apparently he was hoping he would be traded to Boston at the deadline.

Depending on how the next four games go, the Boston series might be meaningless for both teams. Gibbons valued rest more than wins last season when a playoff spot was locked up, and it would probably be the same this season with so many older position players on the team who could surely benefit from some rest at this point. Luckily, the O's series will absolutely mean something, and depending on how that goes, the Jays will still want to lock up the WC1 since playing the game at home would be more attractive.

Too early to really be concerned about it though. If the O's come in and take 2/3 or god forbid sweep, then the Jays will absolutely want to win in Boston to avoid a WC game in Baltimore (or avoid missing the WC game entirely depending on how Detroit/Seattle/Houston does). A 3 game lead with 7 to go is fairly safe, but nothing in baseball makes any sense, so you can't assume anything to be locked up until it is.

But swihart is a bad LFer. Moncada can't play D and can't stop striking out. And they're losing by far their best hitter in ortiz.

The Jays have an 88.2 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to MLB.com.

And Edwin's game-winning hit was about an eight-bounce grounder to second, but it found a hole.

The played the shift and he went opposite field for the easy hit. Nothing amazing about that.

The Jays record in August was ok. In Sept they had probably their worst slump of the year. So they certainly have not peaked. Not yet firing on all cylinders.

Boston on the other hand is definitely hot. With a month of baseball to be played before the WS is decided I expect them to have a slump. I look forward to seeing them eliminated early.

they had been one of the best teams in baseball for months....and then a 3-9 to start sept all against division opponents. what a disaster.

but they're now 7-3 in the ensuing 10gms and most importantly Joey seems to be Joey again (man the guy might have been lined up for a huge payday if he had just stuck to DH this year) AND the SP seem to have recovered from their mini implosion.

The most important thing imo is that they're playing well heading into the playoffs...and they seem to be getting there.

Catching Boston? Simple! Just win out while Boston drops a series to NY and we're in first.

The Jays have gone 7-3 in the last 11 days, but lost 3.5 games in the standings in the process. Not much you can do there except tip your cap to the Red Sox. They are the better team this season by any metric. The Jays starting the month 5-11 killed them, combined with the Red Sox getting scorching hot, otherwise it would have at least been an interesting race in the final week rather than an inevitable Red Sox division title.

At least the Jays have rebounded from their horrid start this month.

Things look a lot better now. Needed relief from the panic, doom and gloom and just plain being scared. Sorry for cringing.

I know that is how meaningful baseball always feels like. 5-2 or 4-3 in the last 7 games is ok with me. As is an easy or nail biting WS championship.

Here's how fangraphs' depth charts (i.e. the average of ZIPS and STEAMER projections) sees the two teams the rest of the way:

wRC+

Donaldson 139 ---- Ortiz 141
En’cion 134 -------- Betts 126
Bautista 133 ------- Ramirez 120
Saunders 107 ----- Pedroia 108
Tulowitzki 105 ----- Benintendi 107
Travis 102 ---------- Bradley 105
Martin 100 ---------- Bogaerts 105
Pillar 87 ------------- Shaw 88
Upton 83 ------------ Leon 78

Smoak 94 ---------- Young 98
Navarro 78 --------- Hill 91
Carrera 77 --------- Holt 88
Barney 69 ---------- Holaday 68

Pompey 78 -------- Hernandez 73
Goins 58 ----------- Moncada 72
Thole 58 ----------- Hanigan 63



ERA

Stroman 3.75 ----- Price 3.38
Sanchez 3.85 ---- Porcello 3.85
Estrada 4.05 ------ Pomeranz 3.69
Happ 4.08 --------- Rodriguez 4.20
Liriano 4.09 ------- Wright 4.29
Dickey 4.44 -------- Buchholz 4.40

Osuna 2.91 -------- Kimbrel 2.65
Cecil 3.07 ---------- Uehara 3.02
Barnes 3.16 ------- Ziegler 3.41
Grilli 3.36 ----------- Ross 3.59
Benoit 3.54 -------- Tazawa 3.74
Biagini 3.84 -------- Abad 3.81
Tepera 3.99 ------- Kelly 3.81
Feldman 4.27 ----- Barnes 4.13

September:

Bautista 143
En'cion 140
Donaldson 108
Travis 106
Pillar 88
Martin 85
Tulo 74
Upton 57
Saunders 24

Carrera 125
Smoak 45
Barney 41
Navarro -11

Thole 179
Goins 12
Ceciliani -100
Pompey -100



Liriano 1.96
Stroman 3.00
Happ 3.66
Estrada 4.39
Dickey 5.00
Sanchez 5.40

Cecil 0.00
Loup 0.00
Benoit 0.96
Barnes 3.00
Osuna 3.27
Tepera 3.86
Grilli 4.70
Biagini 7.36
Feldman 12.00

2nd half

En'cion 139
Donaldson 134
Martin 133
Bautista 126
Travis 117
Tulowitzki 97
Saunders 73
Pillar 73
Upton 50

Smoak 84
Barney 60
Navarro 40
Carrera 15

Goins 79
Thole 54
Ceciliani 4
Pompey -100



Happ 3.13
Sanchez 3.41
Stroman 3.56
Liriano 4.34
Estrada 4.46
Dickey 5.64

Benoit 1.37
Tepera 2.31
Grilli 2.36
Biagini 2.76
Osuna 3.07
Cecil 3.10
Barnes 3.46
Loup 4.50
Feldman 7.03

If Boston wins the division early & the Jays clinch the #1 WC - will the Jays try to prevent Boston from having the #1 seed & playing the WC winner or rest the regulars (Needed) and juggle the rotation - likely Dickey starts Sunday - save Sanchez for WC - Also if Jays likely to play Sox in Divisional series, do the jays Pull Estrada & Happ early (3 innings)?

Fun seeing the Jays with a 94.6% chance at making the playoffs in Baseball Prospectus now. 5.7% shot at the WS title. Playoffs are such a crapshoot it is pretty much 50-50 for each round so being stuck as the wild card makes it harder, just a 6.25% shot for each of the 4 wild card teams vs 12.5% for division winners. Still, a shot is a shot. Sure beats being a NYY or Tampa Bay fan right now while Baltimore is on life support (1.6% chance at winning it all but 64.3% chance at playoffs). Detroit is at just 26.5% for making it as they are a weaker team than Baltimore or Toronto.

Should be a fun final week. NYY tonight then 3 tough games vs Baltimore followed by 3 in Boston.

Other wild cards - KC & NYY could technically catch Baltimore but can't catch the Jays. Houston has a 'cant get the Jays' number of 1, Seattle 2, Detroit 3. Jays have a 1 1/2 game lead on Baltimore so if the Jays can sweep Baltimore then the Jays have home field for the wild card game.

For who to play in the Division series... Texas leads (has the tie breaker vs Boston), Texas plays Milwaukee and Tampa to end the season vs Boston playing the Yankees and Jays. Given quality of opposition I'd think Texas has the advantage but we all know the Yankees seem to have gone home for the winter early.

The Jays have never been in a Wild Card game before, so I'm kind of looking forward to it if it happens. (I know, I know, it's not definitely going to happen yet. No jinxing on my watch, thank you.)

It'll be just like an elimination game, and the Jays are used to those. They had five of them last year, and went 4-1 in them. Optimism!

Severino is starting for the Yankees tonight.   This should be good news for the Jays, since Severino has been terrible as a starter this year (although he's been better as a reliever).   He hasn't started any games since a couple of disastrous starts in early August.  But the Jays have been making some bad pitchers look good recently, so we'll see what happens.

Toronto stumbled into First Place, July 30th and solidified their position on August 10th.
They had a 2 game lead on September 1st, their biggest lead.
They were totally dumped out of First Place after September 6th by losing 5 of 6 games.
From the 7th of September until the 16th they were never more than two games out, despite going just 4-5.
Basically Toronto went 7-3, while Boston went 11-0, to fall 5.5 GBL.

To win the Division, Toronto needs to win 7 straight games in the last week while Boston can't win more than one game.

To win Wild-Card berth Toronto needs just 4 wins (less if Detroit losses any games). Home-Field advantage require just one more win (less if Baltimore losses any games).

Detroit has Buck Farmer starting tonight.

Boston, Texas and Cleveland will all be fighting for the home advantage all the way to the end.

Off to a lively start.

Holy crap, both teams were warned after two batters were hit, then the Yankees pitcher Severino takes two pitches to hit Smoak,and the Yankee coaches are arguing about him being thrown out? Benoit looked like he hurt his foot in the scrum so I hope it isn't serious.

The Jays have the most to lose in that situation, I don't think it was smart of Happ to escalate the situation. Benoit limped off the field, with help, have the Jays lost him now for a while? The Yankees wouldn't care if they lost a player but it matters to the Jays.

Yeah, that is on Happ, IMO. I didn't see the Donaldson HBP but I'd be shocked if it was even remotely intentional, especially given the control issues Severino was having in that inning. There was no reason for retaliation in that spot. The Jays have everything to lose in situations like that at this point in the season. Completely unnecessary. Hopefully no one got hurt, and nothing further happens the rest of the game.

Sportsnet and Rogers should try and poach Ken Singleton from YES for radio or TV. He is terrific to watch/listen to. Seems very fond of Toronto and the Blue Jays teams as well over the years. A Shulman/Singleton booth would be phenominal but it will nefer happen, probably.

I think Travis was clenching that finger. Not sure he ever fully recovered from that ligament thing.

Singleton has an Expos connection as both a player and with TSN, so he's probably a lot more familiar with the city than most.
Probably couldn't come close to the money he's getting, though.

On the replay of Travis' last strikeout he really grimaced on the swing. Looked like the shoulder again.

I don't like Happ starting the 8th. I realize the bullpen options are limited, though.

Predictable. Really frustrates me that managers get greedy with their starters. Just let him walk away with an excellent 7 IP, 0 ER start. No reason for him to face the lineup a 4th time.

I can kind of forgive it because I know the usual relievers aren't available, but it still irks me.

So who does close tonight, if it comes to it?

I guess Cecil gets one more chance at a high leverage situation. He has a 1.47 ERA in his last 26 appearances...

If Benoit has to miss time (he had to be helped off the field apparently), then Cecil might be the 7th inning guy again.

Cecil being good again is so huge for us.

Happ wasn't even at 90 pitches and was dominant. why would you pull him?

"Happ wasn't even at 90 pitches and was dominant. why would you pull him?"

Because I care more about times-through-the-order than I do about pitch count and I almost always prefer a fresh reliever to a starter facing the lineup a 4th time. I'd rather pull a pitcher too early than too late.

As I said, I am not so upset this game because Osuna/Benoit are not available, but I still would have rather seen Biagini start the 8th.

And I typed that before there was a hit, for the record.

No matter, it's Grilli's game now. Fire it up!

Heh.

Grilli has not been good lately.

Anyone have an update on Benoit's injury?

Grilli has been really not good lately.

Grilli might have run out of gas. It's situations like this where Gibbons might have been better off keeping Cecil (who has been great lately) in the game rather than bring in Grilli (who has regressed recently), especially with no Osuna tonight, but live by defined roles and some times you die by them.

This will be a big loss if the Jays don't come back.

If only the Yankees were more demoralized.

Yeah. I really thought Cecil was going to stay in. Grilli hasn't looked great all month; he's been walking a lot more guys and giving up a lot of hard hit balls.

Grilli's last 10 appearances before this game: 8.2 IP, 7 BB, 2 HR. 6.23 ERA despite .211 BABIP. That's a pretty good sign that a guy has run out of gas.

What an awful loss.

And here I was thinking yesterday that the Jays has actually swept a series. Damn it.

here we go.

attaboy pompey.

just a single now russ. just a single.

Benoit injured.

Travis injured.

Rally falls short.

Blech.

The issue with Travis is the shoulder.

Scoring only 3 runs in 8 innings when the Yankees emergency spot starter got ejected in the 2nd inning is the main reason for this loss. I know it's a broken record, but the offense is just not right on a consistent basis.

I was going to mention that it might be time to give Grilli some extended rest, but if Benoit has to miss time, then it leaves the Jays a bit short on relievers Gibbons trusts (basically down to Osuna, Grilli, and Biagini, with Cecil slowly gaining it back). Grilli has been a huge addition to this team, but he's old and might be running out of bullets this season given his workload.

but you just know Joey would have won the game there.

Yeah, Gibbons kind of shot himself in the foot taking Bautista out of the game without Osuna to close things out.

Thankfully Detroit lost so there's not really too much to worry about. Jays pretty much just need to go 3-3 now.

It's kinda funny that last year if they were in this spot we'd be absolutely giddy about being at the top of the wild card with 6 to play. Goes to show how perspectives change, heh.

Sounds like Benoit has been fairly seriously injured, at least according to a Shi Davidi tweet. At least the insult to Justin Smoak was avenged, however - far more important than any old seventh inning reliever.

"It's kinda funny that last year if they were in this spot we'd be absolutely giddy about being at the top of the wild card with 6 to play. Goes to show how perspectives change, heh."


There's also more sense of urgency this season since it will likely be the last season with Bautista and Encarnacion on the roster. Getting the playoff drought off the franchise's back definitely changed perspective, but it's not like this is year 2 of a long projected run. This might be it for the short-term. There will be major retooling after this season and short-term contention is unknown. It's great to have a playoff spot this late in the year, even if it is the least desirable one out there (WC), but the Jays really need to win this season, so speaking for myself, it's a bit scary to not have at least a five game series to look forward to. One game is so random.

""likely be the last season with Bautista and Encarnacion on the roster."

there's no good reason for that to be the case.

Jeff Blair says people are complaining about Texeira's bat flip. Did anyone hear any complaints? I don't have a problem with the bat flip, you can't have it both ways.

So will Travis forever be bothered by this shoulder injury? Seems systemic/chronic at this point.

If it's the same shoulder for Travis, then it's something to keep an eye on with him long-term.

Well good reason for EE/Jose/Saunders being paired down is because while they can technically play other positions than DH right now, going forward I don't think any of them will stick at their positions long term. Maybe EE at 1B is okay. So I don't think they can resign all 3. They can probably sign 2 though, one as fulltime DH and occasional OF and one at 1B and occasional DH. Whether they want to with how their bats are likely to keep declining is another question. Law said last week on 1050 it doesn't make sense to resign any of them. I wouldn't go to that extreme, but I have a fairly pessimistic view of their performance going forward so I can see his pov.

I hate Law as much as anyone, but in this case he's right. Somehow.

As much as a random poster here can presuppose a conclusion and cherry-pick statistics to "prove" it, it's still a horrible decision to throw away a ton of money at a couple of aging sluggers who can't play defense, and based on actual analysis, won't even be above-average contributors on offense by the second or third years of their respective contracts. If the Jays have the awesome young core that some random posters continue to obsess over, then why do they need a $250M commitment to players who won't be worth much more than replacement value by 2018?

Saunders, on the other hand, isn't even worth a QO at this point. If the season was 80 games shorter, he would've been. But it isn't.

The Jays know what they're doing, despite any crybaby efforts to the contrary.

Saunders is worth a qo. The weird shape of his season aside, his numbers for the year are fine. No big deal if he's back on a 1 year deal.

I don't really know what kind of deal Edwin is going to get. Teams seem to be more wary of signing older 1b types to long deals since pujols.

Remember everyone thought Davis was gone from the orioles last year, but interest in him was surprisingly weak and be ended up back in Baltimore even after they rescinded their offer to him. And he was just 30, four years younger than Edwin.

The fa market this season is God awful, and Edwin is the best hitter available, but I don't know. It will be interesting for sure.

I really wish the Jays could arrange for Pompey to spend the summer with Tim (Rock) Raines. Working on his on-base and base-stealing skills.

All i'll say is that it's the same certain people who think signing EE and Joey is a bad idea who keep saying how much it will help the red sox to sign them.

Jeff Blair says people are complaining about Texeira's bat flip.

That was a reference to fans on his Twitter feed complaining about it at the moment it happened. He did say afterwards that Happ throwing at Headley was monumentally stupid.

I certainly don't think Severino was throwing at Donaldson. If he had been, the pitch would probably have ended up right down the middle.

The issue is that EE, Bautista, and Saunders are all essentially DHs now. Most teams don't have any full time DHs but one certainly is the maximum you can carry. EE is very likely gone. Some team will offer him a ton of money and more than the Jays should pay. Still a great great hitter but wouldn't want to bet on him on a four or five year deal especially with zero defensive value.

Bautista or Saunders I can see back on shorter, cheaper deals. I'm not sure a team would want to give a draft pick for Saunders so I can definitely see a Estrada sort of short term deal where he becomes the full time DH.

I've always assumed that Encarnacion and Bautista will be gone after the season.

Rogers/Shapiro/Atkins will definitely try to re-sign them, I think, but they'll (quite sensibly) use rational analysis to come up with a reasonable offer based on their age and recent performance. But there are too many teams out there with buckets of money to spend, and very few free agents to spend it on during this off-season. Each of them will get an offer for ludicrous amounts of money, and they would be stupid not to take it.

I'm pretty much resigned to the idea of Encarnacion becoming a member of the Red Sox next year. They'll need a new DH/1B type. And Ortiz, I suspect, has done just about everything short of actually measuring his countryman for a Boston uniform. And the Red Sox have more money than they really should.

I predict that Saunders will not be given a QO, but will be offered a new contract after the QO deadline has expired. If the Jays are offering market value, he'll want to return to Toronto - he has said repeatedly that playing here was his lifelong dream (being a Canadian and all that).

Sure I can see bidding for EE. Davis got what 160 million last year? I think people are way overestimating Jose's value. He's nearly 36, no NL team is going to sign him and Boston and NY aren't really bidders for him. I'd be surprised if he got more than a two year deal.

Saunders getting the QO has always come down to whether the Jays could live with the consequences of him accepting it. At the ASB, it was a no brainer. Now, not so much. His defense is awful and is wRC+ is down to 119 on the season, which is actually less than what it was in his final season with the Mariners. With his defensive value completely shot, I'm not sure he would be a good investment for $16-17M even for one year.

Bautista coming back on a two year deal is the best case scenario, IMO. The deal would be short enough to not be an albatross if he declines further, and also short enough to get what should be whatever is left of his good offensive production. Edwin is 100% gone, IMO.

Although, agreeing with Keith Law on anything is not something I am comfortable with. I'm not sure whether I should change my opinion just based on that.

To edit what I said above, Bautista on a one year deal would be the best case scenario, but two years is the next best case if that cannot happen (and Jose's ego seems like it could prevent that from happening).

EE has been linked to Boston repeatedly, but Hanley is a pretty weak 1B and who knows where Panda ends up ...They've got the same sort of DH glut that we do.

Earlier in the year I recall some people saying they felt EE's D was passable at first - the big question is if he's considered a 1B by the market or a DH-only.

My dream scenario has us resigning two of the three players and giving them both plenty of time at DH with a strong defensive caddy on hand - I could see us getting both Jose and Saunders at reasonable short-term rates right now.

Saunders is worth a qo. The weird shape of his season aside, his numbers for the year are fine.

There's still got to be some doubt about his "true" offensive level. Domonic Brown's 2013 was propped up by a strong first half... and then he never recovered. Saunders is not a terrific comp for Brown, because he showed signs of life before this season and because he has a better batting eye. But I'd feel more comfortable about Saunders' season were his big numbers put up in the second half (he's figured things out!) rather than the first (pitchers have figured him out!).

It will be interesting to see if a QO is forthcoming. It's certainly possible, but it's no slam dunk.

There was a couple people on 1050 recently (might have been Keri or Law or someone else) who was saying the classic DH was dying. Basically teams want to use the DH to cycle the fielders through that position to spell them and keep them fresher/healthier. So while I can see Toronto bucking the trend and keeping a fulltime DH around, I can't see them keeping 2 much less 3 DH types around.

That's a good point Kasi and an approach I like too - I just feel that this less-than-ideal roster construction (multiple DH types) might be the best choice anyway, given the players stated desire to stay in TO.

Who needs the rest? Travis and Tulo could certainly use days off. Pillar and Donaldson are gamers but they play so hard I could see the DH rotation helping periodically. A better backup catcher could help Martin get the rest he needs.

Of the three players, who has the most / least playable glove? Could Jose/Saunders be okay at 1b?

"All i'll say is that it's the same certain people who think signing EE and Joey is a bad idea who keep saying how much it will help the red sox to sign them."

Not sure why you think these things should be mutually exclusive. It likely will help them... In 2017...

I think the contract they gave David Price was a monumentally stupid idea, but I won't deny that I expected them to benefit from it in the short term.

I think it's a misconception that there was ever a "classic DH." there have always been 3-4 teams who have a full time DH and the rest of the team use it to cycle players and give them a day off in the field. I don't think that's new at all.

Will the Price deal be so stupid if he uses the opt-out clause ? If he performs well for the period before the opt-out ( is it 3 years? ), then goes back on the free agent market,then the Sox have good value at an admittedly high price, but don't have to pay for declining production. Of course he may not use the opt-out and,yes, the contract could be pretty stupid.

Looks like RHP Chris Smith will be added to the roster (with a 40-man roster move coming). 28 year-old, undrafted, 3 seasons in Indy ball, 3.2 innings of AAA experience... hopefully we don't get to see him unless it's a meaningless game.

Looks like Benoit is possibly out for the rest of the season with a torn calf muscle - the same thing that Cecil had last year. Might be back by the ALCS if the Jays get that far. What a way to lose a key player. Travis is day-to-day and hopes to play tomorrow. Burns called up along with Smith. Apparently, Benoit wasn't even hurt in the melee - he tripped running out of the bullpen to join the fracas.

If this is the end of the season for Benoit, we now have all the info we'll get for determining his value for next year. What kind of offer is he going to get after a terrible 1st half and great 2nd half? He'll be 40 next July. Does he stay with the Jays? I'd like to see him back - aside from the 1st half of this year with Seattle, he's been a very good reliever for quite some time.

Yep, that really stings. Ugh. I really hope that Good Cecil has returned to take his place.

Carrera is batting lead off tonight.

Not sure why Gibbons just couldn't move Bautista back to the lead off spot now that he's hot and presumably healthy.

Injury update. Travis is day-to-day, but hopes to play tomorrow. X-rays showed no actual damage to the shoulder repair. Benoit has the same injury - torn calf muscle - Cecil had last October, sustained not in the scrap but in leaving the bullpen. Cecil was ready to pitch again about ten days after getting hurt (but he couldn't be activated until the Kansas City series was over.)

People were complaining about how slow Benoit is.

I still hope 88 is enough for the playoffs. Ending the season with a must win game against Boston just before having to play a wild card game on the road would suck.

How many of you were listening to Shapiro last week when he said that while he does not like to deal in absolutes it was highly unlikely any of the 3 would be back. They are not returning. The only remote possibility of one returning would be if Jose accepts QO. Saunders won't get one. EE is gone. I don't think he goes to Boston but to one of the Texas teams with a contending team and better tax situation.

There's always old guys who can bat but are bad defenders. Trumbo should be a DH, but Baltimore played him mostly in right field. That's because Pedro Alvarez is a third baseman and they already have an MVP candidate at the hot corner.  Alvarez has -1.1 dWAR in 6 games. Yeah, better DH him.

The decline of the regular DH is directly related to having shorter benches. With big bullpens with the benches have to be able to do more. You ned more flexibility with your team. Also, not having a regular DH allow you to rest players without losing big bats, as ell as play players who are banged up but can still hit.

PeterG, have you got a quote on that report?  I certainly haven't heard anything that definitive.

I'm certainly not sure that Saunders doesn't get a QO - if he does, to me the likely scenario is a marco estrada type contract. 

Every year people say we won't offer estrada a QO (that was also me saying that), we won't pick up Dickey's option, we non-tender estrada, etc, and every year the cost of a win in FA goes up and surprise surprise, the player is back.   

Of course, I wouldn't rule out the team having a better sense of his health than I do, and not extending the QO based on that.  But based on performance, I see him getting one, even though it's a close call - fangraphs has him worth just under $13 million, but the value of a one year contract is more in the term than in the cost of the deal. 

David Price has been worth nearly $40 million per Fangraphs, during a 'down' year.  His contract is not even remotely stupid - it's a gamble that he doesn't have a catastrophic injury in the first three years of the deal.  It's almost impossible to see a scenario where the Sox don't win big on that deal barring said catastrophe. 

On a different note, how much of that stupid melee last night is on Gibbons?  I've stayed out of conversations on his merits as a manager since I think he's pretty average and I like him on a personal level, but to me, tolerating that foolishness is on him more than anyone. 

jerjapan, I heard Shapiro say that on a morning interview on the FAN590 last week. I can't give a quote but that is exactly what he said. If u heard it there would be no doubt in your mind that he thinks the chance is zero.

wow, I'm surprised that didn't get more coverage, but certainly that changes the game.  I don't know why he would say that though?  Seems detrimental to the team vibe going into the playoffs - and from a guy who normally plays things close to the vest.  I guess he's trying to get the fan base ready for disappointment in the offseason?

The idea with the DH is that there are a lot of guys who can hit but don't defend well and cost relatively little money.

The Blue Jays chose instead to not have a regular firstbaseman, and to move Encarnation there to use the DH slot.
Martin has been DHing a lot lately. Many teams just put the catcher a first base instead. I doubt that not having a good DH when all the regulars are healthy is the best strategy.

""Not sure why you think these things should be mutually exclusive. It likely will help them... In 2017..."

Saying it's bad for the Jays but good for the Sox is hilariously contradictory.


"I think the contract they gave David Price was a monumentally stupid idea, but I won't deny that I expected them to benefit from it in the short term. "

how can it be "monumentally stupid" if they will benefit from it?

and why do you not care about the short term?

I agree with you on Gibbons jerjapan, I have similar sentiments. On the other topic, I think there is fan preparation going on. I imagine what Shapiro said is common knowledge in the clubhouse so I doubt it would have any negative affect. Has anyone else noticed how many times Buck has said recently on telecasts that in order to be sustainable contenders, you need to build your own core. He has said it several times and I never heard that from him before until about 2 weeks back. He also said last week that money is better spent on development than FA's which shocked me because I'm not sure he really believes it. Remember, he is an employee of the club.

That's an interesting thought on Buck ... I really don't have an opinion on how beholden the commentators are, if at all, to management and their goals.  My off the cuff reaction is that Buck is just saying what a majority of people in the game are saying - IMO, the valuation of prospects has reached a point where even Buck and Pat know they have legit value. 

I'd have to hear the exact remark from Shapiro. It would seem strange to say something so definitive during the season. In fact it's pretty unusual to hear a GM say anything definitive at all.

Chris Smith, the emergency arm added when Benoit went down, is a great story - switched to pitching in college, toiled away all over the place including indie ball and Mexico, but he's been lights out in his latest kick at MLB.  Stoked to see a minor league soldier added at this point in the season, and I think he's got Bo Schultz like potential - for whatever that's worth.

I am definitely on board with DH being flexible and not having one player attached to that role. It is one of the reasons I liked trading Adam Lind, as I thought he and Edwin together really hurt the team's ability to use the DH spot effectively. Of course, if Bautista comes back for a year or two, then he should get the bulk of the playing time there, but if not, having a revolving door where they can use Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin (and whoever else they get) in that spot would be helpful in keeping them healthy all season.

As far as Shapiro's quote, I didn't see it/read it, but it's not surprising. This front office is not going to give Edwin the type of money that he'll get from some team. and unless Bautista's market dictates a much shorter contract (two years max), then he's probably gone too. Of the three I think Saunders probably has the best chance of coming back only because he's vastly inferior to the other two and should cost a lot less, but whether he's given the QO remains to be seen.

"I still hope 88 is enough for the playoffs. Ending the season with a must win game against Boston just before having to play a wild card game on the road would suck."

The Red Sox won't have anything to play for at that point -- winning at least 1 game from that series should be pretty easy in theory.

So you'd rather have Saunders than Bruce, ugly? Not saying we'd be division champs with a different left fielder, but look at the career numbers as well. Bruce is better than Saunders in every offensive category, and has twice as many at bats due to Bruce being more durable. You're looking at a smaller sample size there. I'd put stock in the fact Bruce is a three time all-star who as recently as 2015 played 157 games, and has been a solid contributor on playoff teams before. Before this year, Saunders had struggled to stay on the field for a full season. Essentially, he's a more consistent, durable version of Michael Saunders, the lack of which has really hurt the team this season.

No secret to why the Jays pushed so hard to get the guy, and wanted to trade Saunders. 

Bruce has literally been a replacement player 3 years running, and is owed $12.5m next year.

Saunders was dirt cheap this year and his bat was crucial to our success.

Sure Bruce has been healthier, but healthy replacement level is still replacement level...and it hasn't stopped saunders from playing just as much as him this year.

I don’t see how there's a comparison, really.


Last 3yrs:

Saunders (29): 853pa, 117wrc+, 3.3fwar, 3.5bwar, 2.6avg/650
Bruce (29): 1773pa, 93wrc+, -0.1fwar, -0.1bwar, 0.0avg/650

Bruce is more comparable to Smoak, except with triple the pricetag.

"was crucial to our success"

In the first half of the season, for sure. In the second half, he's been horrible (68 wRC+, and 16 (!) wRC+ in 71 PA in September). Probably the Jays would have cinched a WC spot by now if he'd been even an average player over the last couple of months.