there's still time to turn this around.

show some cajones please.

The Jays can reclaim a share of first place in the WC race with a win tonight.

Time to pull themselves up by the bluestockings.

I want to be record that I don't think estrada should start.  He should be given rest.

Lind fielded Walker's throw just like a DH.

they seem energized tonight at least.

Big knock for Pillar there.

Edwin's carrying the team.

On the Out Of Town Scoreboard, just a dream matchup in Los Angeles tonight. Bumgarner versus Kershaw, Vin Scully with the call. Doesn't get much better than that.

thattaboy kevin.

Boston pretty much won the division now. They've tied Cleveland and are just 2 games short of Texas. There's a good chance the last 3 games in Boston will be the Jays fighting for a wild card against Boston fighting for playoffs home advantage.

4 game lead is big this time of year but catchable. Especially with final 3 between Jays and Red Sox. Yeah, I'd rather the Jays were up by 4 instead but such is life.

boston didn't so much win it as we decided to hand it to them.

Terrible call on Donaldson. Is anyone with power talking about robo-umps to call balls and strikes? Or is it just disgruntled fans? How would such a change happen? Could the players make it part of the CBA? Or is it a GM-level thing? Other than the umpires, who would possibly be against it?

Robinson Cano takes Gibbons off the hook.

would the umps even be against it?

do they enjoy trying to guess whether a swerving diving 95mph object managed to touch a part of an imaginary invisible box with no real definition which changes with every hitter anyways with players on both sides trying to trick you into calling it their way?

man the donaldson ejection makes this 3 run lead feel even less safe.

be good grilli.

Boston didn't so much win it

Boston's done what they needed to do - they've gone 25-12 since mid-August. Which is pretty good. They certainly look like the best team in the division, although they've underperformed their Pythagorean by a full five games (partially because they're almost exactly as bad in one-run games as Toronto.)

Well, a win is a win. Scary but they got it. Sure sounded like a home game - bet the Mariners owners are thankful to get tickets sold as they are up just 11 tickets a game vs last year despite being in the wild card race.

Total joke that ump tonight. The pitch to Donaldson appeared low to the eye and to pitch FX that the Jays broadcast uses. I'd like to see a version of replay used for ejections on ball-strike calls like that where if the batter is right he gets to stay in the game. Call still stands until they get around to using technology to avoid stupidity like that but why make the Jays go without their MVP when an ump cost him like that?

The gap between the umpire and the player in situations such as Donaldson's appears unbridgeable to me.

To become a major league umpire, you have to spend years in the minor leagues - driving from ballpark to ballpark, eating crappy food, getting paid next to nothing, and spending your evenings having abuse hurled at you by players, managers, and fans. All that an umpire has going for him - besides the dream of making it to The Show - is his authority: the knowledge that it isn't a ball or a strike unless he says it is.

On the other hand, the hitter relies on his ability to detect and lay off borderline pitches just outside the strike zone. The ability to work a favourable count may very well be what got the hitter to the majors in the first place. It's a hard-won and essential skill. If Donaldson starts swinging at pitches like that, he'll lose the ability to hit better pitches effectively.

I can't see umpires ever allowing machines or replays to overturn ball and strike calls. Their authority is what they rely on.

Respect my authoritah.

Best umpire of all time - Leslie Nielsen in the Naked Gun series.

Steeeerrriikkke !!!! ( Cue moonwalk )

Boston certainly has gotten extremely hot at the right time, and I agree that they look like the best team in the division (and the year-long numbers certainly seem to bear that out).  XW-L suggests they should be at 91 wins already, and 8 up on the Jays.  I'm just really hoping to get another shot at Texas in the divisional series.

I want to be record that I don't think estrada should start.

Good thing I am not the coach.

Good thing I am not the coach.

Of all the things fans seem to want to know and often presume to know is the health of the players. But that is really unknowable to us, and not the type of thing a team is going to advertise (beyond the intentionally vague "this time of the year, everyone's banged up a bit"). So sometimes we wonder why a certain player is getting a rest and why certain seemingly hobbled players are still out there.

We are all guilty of this, though we don't all insist on going on the record!

I'll go on record as saying I don't want any decisions being made on "rest" the rest of the way.

there's no more time to rest.

love how Jimi finished that stanza with "and drool".

Estrada has a back issue, but as long as he's good enough to start, they have to have him out there. The regression over the past month or so is probably partly his back and partly just simple regression. He's a good pitcher, but not 2.50 ERA good, or whatever he was at two months ago. His start against the M's last night was very encouraging. I hope it effectively kills the Navarro narrative. Let Navarro catch when Martin needs a breather, not as a designated catcher for Estrada.

Still not very confident in the offense, but at this point this is probably what they will be for the rest of the season. The SP has to carry them. The playoffs have proven time and time again that the hottest team is the best team. The Jays had their cold spell in early September, now is the time to go on a bit of a run, even with the tougher competition over the last 12 games.

The Red Sox would have to collapse badly to lose 5 games in the standings in 12 games, and the Jays are not exactly playing well right now, so I've kind of accepted the WC as being the team's best chance at making it. Just have to hold off the Tigers/M's/Astros while trying to at least tie the Orioles by end of the season (Jays hold the tiebreaker I believe). Not going to be easy.

The Jays have a 3-1 record in one-run games this month. Food for thought...

Great game from Estrada last night. We'll need him to be like his earlier self if we want to have any chance in a theoretical playoff run. Offense still needs to be better, but at least it was "good enough" tonight. I love the home run, but it'd be nice to get some runs otherwise. Pillar got that 2 out RBI base hit which was a nice start.

Tiebreaker for home field in WC game is head to head record.  Jays up 9-7 on the Os right now, with 3 to play.   Just can't get swept.  Of course, getting swept probably means Os finish with higher record anyways.

Houston has a really soft schedule & a great shot at a WC spot - Boston needs to beat up on Baltimore and hopefully Boston clinches before that final 3 games against the Jays.

He's a good pitcher, but not 2.50 ERA good, or whatever he was at two months ago.

He is a tough one to sort out. He gives up too many homeruns, like a typical change-up pitcher. And this year he's taken to walking too many batters. But he seems to have offset the walks with more Ks.

Still, the key to his success seems to be a low BABIP (216 last year, 236 this year). Maybe this really is a skill and he's that unique type of pitcher to whom the laws of the universe (or at least modern day performance modeling) do not apply.

Forecasting models won't see good things ahead for 2017, given his xFIP (4.9 last year, 4.6 this year). But I am no longer so confident that he can't sustain the crazy BABIP... at least until he doesn't. Then I'll pretend I knew his demise was forthcoming.

the thing I think with pitchers who beat their peripherals is that while we might not want to dismiss it as "fluke", we should probably at least admit that their success lives on a knife's edge, and when they're even slightly off they can get beat up real good.

They just have much less leeway than some other guys, who can be tough to hit even when they're a bit off.

that unique type of pitcher to whom the laws of the universe (or at least modern day performance modeling) do not apply.

The most similar pitcher to Estrada in this regard is Jake Arrieta, who's thrown a similar number of innings in the majors and likewise has a BABiP well below the league average (even lower than Estrada this year) And both of them figured out how to make this happen around 2013, and they've managed it consistently ever since. So I dunno - is anyone saying Arrieta is a fluke?

And so castles made of sand
fall in the sea
eventually.

Jimi does seem to be remembered mostly as a guitar player - for pretty obvious reasons, I admit - but I really miss the pop musician and the songwriter. He came up with many great and nifty tunes, with catchy choruses and everything.

Nobody gets famous for setting their lyrics on fire.

Carrera over Upton today.

Kinda weird that Saunders goes to LF so that Carrera can play RF.

Travis, Bautista, Saunders and of course Encarnation have good numbers against Iwakuma.

Let's control what can be controlled. Good defense and no stupid baserunning please.

Carrera is in LF and Saunders in RF. The coaching staff, and most likely Saunders himself, believe that Michael is most comfortable in RF, so that's where he plays when Bautista isn't in the outfield.

The reports coming out of Buffalo on Dalton Pompey must've been some kind of bad for Gibby to be this unwilling to give him a chance when the team's offense is struggling.

Estrada's command has looked somewhere between "bad" and "godawful" the last two months with a corresponding increase in BABIP. He was luckier than usual last night.

I think that's basically the worst case for next year when he's healthy. Very confident he'll return to form next spring.

Arrieta also has a 4.33 ERA over his last 14 starts, after putting up 1.74 in the first 15...

Credit Iwakuma for the impeccable command of all his pitches. But over the last few weeks, Jays hitters have either taken or swung through countless fastballs. It really does remind me of April.

Sigh Josh. This team is majorly snakebitten with runners on.

Awesome, awesome tweet from Phil Kessel as Team USA goes down to defeat.

Just sitting around the house tonight w my dog. Felt like I should be doing something important, but couldn't put my finger on it.

Travis injures my eyes when watching him field

Travis sucks at defense again. This is getting annoying.

That's a play only a few 2nd basemen in baseball make, but it was clumsily handled. Cost them a run.

Nice of our d to hang Happ out to dry like that. Two plays by Travis and a missed catch as well. Travis really needs to slow his game down.

I have never seen a second baseman boot a ball all the way into the RF corner for a triple. Very odd. Agreed, it would have been a tough play, but one you'd hope he'd make. It was hit hard enough that as long as he knocks it down, Happ is out of the inning scoreless. Lack of timely hitting for the Jays continues. 6 innings to turn it around.

And what was Donaldson looking at? He basically struck out looking at 4 strikes.

The Bautista foul ball shows how little he is using his lower half in his swing. When healthy, he waits back and smokes that pitch. The Seattle broadcast mentioned how much he seems to seems to be "cheating" and starting his swing earlier.

Travis will make a wonderful DH someday. Perhaps as early as next year.

Nice AB from Bautista all the same. He's reached base in 28 straight games? Sure doesn't seem like it.

Such a strange team. The catcher is faster than the shortstop.

Didn't take 6 innings, only took 1 out to get untracked. Couple no doubter HRs.

Such a strange team. The catcher is faster than the shortstop.

I suspect if it was a life-or-death situation, Tulo outruns Martin easily. And then spends 7 weeks on the DL...

I suspect if it was a life-or-death situation, Tulo outruns Martin easily.

Ah, but what if Martin takes off the shin guards?

6 straight hits, none of them from the top of the order.

that's gotta be a 1st this year.

(guess who doesn't miss upton btw?)

love kessel. good for him. and i'm glad usa got burnt for bringing grinders over skill.

Glad Happ came out strong that inning. Was concerned after the third and sitting so long.

A little windy baseball lore...

When Bautista came up for the second time in the fourth, I wondered - has anyone ever had three hits in an inning or does he have a chance to tie the record? And of course, three hits in an inning has been done five times. The first three occasions came in the same game, back in 1883, as the White Stockings were crushing Detroit 26-6. This was a National League game, by the way! Ned Williamson, Fred Pfeffer, and Tommy Burns each had three hits in the inning, as Chicago scored 18 runs (still the record!) in whatever inning it was.

Since then it's been done twice, both times by Red Sox players: Gene Stephens in 1953, and Johnny Damon in 2003. Damon came as close as you can to hitting for the cycle in the same inning - he only missed on the HR.

I'm with ugly. Melvin Upton may be out of a job for the home stretch, save for a pinch hit appearance against a lefty or defensive replacement. Carrera has made two fine plays tonight on balls over his head and has shown better plate discipline.

Couple that with the big home run against the Rays, Carrera might have clinched the majority of playing time for the rest of the season.

If Zeke can return to something closer to his early season form he would be more useful than Upton. He adds a different skill set versus the other players in the lineup, most notably (to me, at least) a more bat control oriented approach. He also offers the ability to bunt, a lefty bat to break up the righties, and some speed. It's worth noting as well that his OBP is still better than Upton's even despite Zeke's poor second half. I also wonder if his injury affected his slump at all - if so then perhaps expecting something a bit closer to his first half numbers isn't entirely unreasonable.

Perhaps Gibbons intends on platooning Zeke and Upton going forward, with Upton facing lefties (who he seems to hit better). To me this could be a good idea in spite of Carrera's reverse platoon splits - his career AB numbers are still low enough that it could just be statistical noise.

Regardless, it's nice to see the offense actually do things for a change. Like hit the ball and stuff. Let's hope it keeps up. I wasn't able to see the game (listened on the radio) but it sure sounded like a potential "spark".

The Bautista foul ball shows how little he is using his lower half in his swing. When healthy, he waits back and smokes that pitch. The Seattle broadcast mentioned how much he seems to seems to be "cheating" and starting his swing earlier.

"Cheating" is what has made him an elite player in Toronto.

Bautista has held his BB rate since his transformation in 2010, but his K rate has gone up this year in a way that should raise a red flag. As players age, they tend to strike out more because they have to start their swings earlier, and Bautista may well be falling into that category.

He's only around the league average, 20%, so it's not catastrophic, but definitely symptomatic of the aging process doing its unapologetic thing.

Well iirc Upton had a pretty big hit in that Boston series himself. I think Gibbons will just go with who's hot. So if Carerra keeps hitting he'll stay in. If not than Upton or someone else will play.

That last bit about a rising K% also applies to Encarnacion, almost exactly. Edwin is, however, maintaining his slugging, while Bautista's has dropped off significantly this year. I forget Bautista has actually played more than 100 games this year when I see his HR total.

Side note - I hadn't noticed Encarnacion passing him for career HRs either.

At this rate with how bad the offense has been in September, I really don't care if Gibbons goes with whoever the hotter hand is at the time, whether it's Carrera, Upton, Smoak, or whoever (as long as it's not Navarro at DH). If that's Carrera for now, then so be it. As long as Gibbons is ready to switch it up when Carrera turns into a pumpkin again. The Jays season depends more on the other bats (Donaldson, EE, Bautista, Martin, Tulo, and Saunders), and last night was evidence of that. Get the stars clicking on offense, and good things will happen.

Last night felt good, but it won't mean much without a good follow up today, especially without sanchez looking healthy and effective.

But a sweep here going into the day off before the final 10gm AL East battle royale would feel real good.

I don’t really care about catching boston anymore as long as we get back to looking like a fearsome team again down the stretch heading into the playoffa....but hey I still have dreams of celebrating our division clinch in Papi's final Fenway series so that would be best I think.

carrera and upton are both bad but at least carrera gives the lineup a bit of a different and scrappier look opposed to the long flailing hacks of upton.

I think Bautista's simply been playing through a lower body injury he picked up earlier in the year.

Remember - thru his first 50gms or so this year Bautista was great - walking more than he struck out, 10hr already and ISO up over .250, and wrc+ up over 130. He wasn't peak Joey but still one of the better hitters in baseball.

But then iirc leg injuries became an issue and seemed to sap his power over his 2nd half of games....he hasn't been bad since but right smack around league average wrc+ thanks to his ISO dropping 100 pts and his Ks rising a good 5%.

Unfortunately I think playing the OF ruined his season - I think he would have been fine and dandy if he had stuck to DHing. IMO the jays would be smart to sign him to do just that next year, now that he's tarnished his FA value.

One of the greatest tweets of all time.

The amazing thing is that Bautista's OBP in 115 PA since returning from his injury is .391, but it comes with a .398 SLG that makes him seem like a much weaker hitter than he's been because of the built-in expectations we have for Jose. It's not a bad thing having him "protect" Encarnacion and getting on base in front of Martin-Tulowitzki, but I wonder if they'd be best served batting Bautista leadoff again so he can really focus on getting on base in front of Travis-Donaldson-Encarnacion.

It's likely wishful thinking that Bautista would sign as a DH. Three years ago Carlos Beltran got 3/45 for his ages 37-39 season from the Yankees coming off a healthy age 36 year that he hit .296/.339/.491, but at the time he was already known as bad defensive outfielder getting worse. That's probably the contract Bautista's side points to when teams try to offer him shorter term deals.

I think that contract comp is a good one, maybe adjusted a bit for inflation. Term seems right for sure.

But I think Beltran would have been fine DHing, it's just that there really wasn't room for him to.

The problem is Bautista is going to want to be paid for his ages 36-39 seasons and Beltran reportedly had higher offers at the time than the Yankees (at least one at 3/48), so Bautista will probably look for 4/80 minimum.

That'll be a tough sell given his numbers this year but I guess in this FA market it's possible.

my 2 favorite hits of the night - Bautista's 2 strike single through the shifthole on the right & EE's double down the oppo line.

those are the kinds of swings that keep a rally going.

also really, really hope this is one of Pillar's patented hot streaks finally happening for the first time since early this year.

I think Bautista's simply been playing through a lower body injury he picked up earlier in the year.

Very likely true, but when you're an older player, you're always plagued by your body's demise. There may no longer be such thing as a fully healthy Bautista, not at this age.

He'll need to do some serious soul-searching this off-season. And it may be a humbling process. His presumed QO will limit the number of suitors, so on the money front, things won't look as glorious as he envisioned back in the spring. And he may find that the world no longer sees him as an outfielder, something that seems to be a point of pride for him.

His best bet, to preserve his health and channel his focus on his hitting, would be a transition to DH. But not everyone is David Ortiz, who can thrive in such a role (and retain his status as a team leader).

Beltre is on a 2/36 contract and Ortiz has been on rolling 2 year contracts. I find it difficult to believe that he'll do better than that. Perhaps if a team with tons of money wanted him, but he's useless in the NL at this point so that rules out half the teams and once you narrow it to the AL and see that NY and Boston don't want him the market for his type of skills really narrows. I think most likely he'll get a QO or a 2 year + option deal with numbers similar or slightly worse than Beltre/Ortiz. No way in hell does he get 4/80.

Upton has done the impossible and made me happy to see Smoak in the lineup.

Sweeping this series will have to be earned. King Felix looks on his game.

at least they're getting his pitch count up.

Gibby rates high (or low) on this list. Think many would agree here.

Have thought for awhile that the Jays do not play enlightened ball very often. In yesterday's game they were going the other way and scored 8 in an inning. Today the approach is back to their normal; swinging from the heels and trying to pull everything. The fielding sleepitude is depressing as well.

How many times have the jays appeared to snap out of it, just to get shutout the next game? It's uncanny.

So king Felix finally shows some control issues to Edwin and what does Bautista do? Swing at the first 2 pitches - both out of the strike zone - and make a quick out. Sigh.

This team is soooo frustrating at times. Hopefully that is it for Hernandez as he is up to 101 pitches. In the old days he'd have another 2 or so innings thanks to the shutout but few managers push guys past 100 pitches now.

Woot at least Smoak gets on base.

Go Pompey, you can steal bases right!

Bautista!   We may have counted him out too early.

ok gut check time.

Why no Osuna in the 9th?

was saving him for the top of the order i think.

Well, we get another chance..

Give that man all of the money.

What is the mlb record for lead off doubles stranded?

What is the mlb record for lead off doubles stranded?

<Alex Trebek> Yes, King Ryan, that is correct. The full answer was: This triggered the great Blue Jays fan suicide of 2016.</Alex Trebek>

i'm sure we can strand a leadoff single too.

What is the mlb record for lead off doubles stranded?

Pretty much do-or-die here.. We have Schultz and Loup warming up in the pen.. Almost makes me long for Roy Lee Jackson and Joey McLaughlin..

Sorry, wrong post quoted. Meant to quote the one about stranding a single too..

yikes. that was awful.

Wonder if there's any way Gibby brings back Osuna for another inning here?

Holy crap, this team is frustrating! They haven't had much luck today either with Seattle robbing them of potential run-scoring hits. I feel another painful loss coming.

The September offense is the most frustrated I have been with a Jays team in a while. The pitching is breaking their backs trying to get them to the playoffs and they have been let down constantly.

Why Loup! Let Barnes go a few, at least til a base runner. I'd rather anyone than Loup.

Wow, using Barnes for 4 pitches in an extra inning game when the remaining pen is basically September callup fodder is a highly suspect move. I would have let Barnes win or lose the game before I brought in Loup, even with a string of lefties coming up.

September bullpens - Gibbons dream come true, up to 7 relievers used so far with 4 more in the pen waiting for their chance.

They have good at bats with bases empty, but with runners on base, they watch pitches down the middle, they swing at pitches out of the zone, they cut their bats and hit weak ground balls or they don't and strike out.

oh man this is excruciating.

Walk. Walk. Nice job, Loup. He's still in?

Yeah it's clear Gibbons pen use is best when his options are limited. Playing the match-ups by taking out a good pitcher and replacing him with one who hasn't been good in two years is the definition of over managing. Oh well, the loss (if it happens) will be on the offense. Loup might just be ending the misery early.

tough outing - those were mostly good pitches I think. unhittable and not missing by much.

come on Tepera I'm just starting to view you as a real RP...keep it going.

remember, barnes actually got beat up his last few times out while loup has been pitching well his last few.

Starting to remind me of the SF 14-inning game I attended..

Somewhere, there's a Seattle fan site where they're all saying the exact same thing....

Nice recovery by the bullpen.   But the fans are going to flip out if Gibbons opts for Dickey in the next inning.

It's weird to use all those pitchers for a single out in extra innings. Better be willing to throw a starter down there eventually.

thattaboy.

"First and second, one out against the dregs of their bullpen? Epic Squander!"

heh.

melvin's swing makes my eyes bleed.

We may have Atlanta Upton.

Is it Dickey?

this should be interesting.

top of the order up next inning....at least get us through one RA.

But the fans are going to flip out if Gibbons opts for Dickey

That would be me flipping out. Dickey struggles the first time through the order, and then settles down. Not what you want out of the bullpen, in extra innings, on the road.

Action: Magpie Flips Out.

Dickey is into the game, which means that Russell Martin is out of the game too.  Maybe the rosters didn't expand enough this month?

uh oh Buck loves this move. not a good sign.

Interesting is not the word I'd use.

oh come on.

And thole gets to bat next inning if things are going well. A switch that seems this bad must be some element of a master plan right?

oh for chrissakes josh.

Can't pin this one on Dickey.

dickey doing everything right.

The O and D doing their thing again.

dammit josh that was beyond terrible.

A very tough loss.  And the Dickey gambit could have worked.  We might see him in the bullpen again this month.

Wow Dickey got screwed there. Tough way to lose. I thought bringing Dickey in the game was the right call there by Gibbons. The defense just let him down.

The pitching did their jobs and even the Loup/Tepera stuff worked out, yet the team still couldn't win. The offense is just awful right now.

Yeah, you won't win often if your offense scores just once in 11 innings.

Well if someone had said we'd score 3 and 1 in two games of this series but we'd win 2/3 I'd be surprised. Offense here still sucks but our pitching is holding us in it. The defense though has been crushing lately. The margin is so thin now that they can't afford to give away so many plays.

Smoak was good though, got on base all three times he was up. #FreeSmoak.

Detroit and Houston are the teams to watch for in the WC race. As I write this they're both 2.0 back of the Jays. Detroit has more games against Minn. and close the year against the Braves. The Astros host the Angels next.

Would be quite something if they both snuck in the back door, leaving Baltimore and Toronto on the outside looking in, wondering what the hell happened.

I liked the Dickey move. I'm not sure if the "Dickey effect" is a real thing or not, but if it is I'm sure it would be most pronounced in the top of the 12th inning, after the opposing lineup just spent the whole day looking at 93-95MPH fastballs. If things had gone as they should have he would have had three easy outs with none of the balls hit hard, so Dickey actually did his job very well. He certainly seemed like a better bet than any of the retreads left in the pen.

I might have left Martin in to get his next at bat. But I understand too that Gibbons might have wanted to preserve Martin for the next set of games which are probably more important to our playoff hopes. Gibbons was a catcher after all so if there's one thing I'm sure of it's that he understands catching. It's all division competition from here on out, so it's best to keep your good guys rested whenever possible.

The reason I didn't like the Dickey move:

1st time through the order: .311/.369/.546
2nd time through the order: .208/.280/.411
3rd time through the order: .256/.340/.415

But obviously this wasn't on him. Soft grounder, bunt, routine fly ball.

I'm not sure if the "Dickey effect" is a real thing or not, but if it is I'm sure it would be most pronounced in the top of the 12th inning

I thought the Dickey Effect is supposed to confer an advantage onto the starter who follows him in the rotation, because the opposition's brains are fried or some such.

Again the Jays were beaten by an outstanding defensive play. The Mariners were red hot coming in, hard to be disappointed with 2 out of 3.

Given the injuries to Donaldson and Bautista it was going to be very difficult for the Jays to keep up with the Sox. Even with a .500 September, Boston would have still passed them by now.

Hopefully the off-day tomorrow gives JB and JD some lift. Bautista had a great series. The long home run in the ninth was certainly an encouraging sign that perhaps the power is starting to come back.

That is indeed the meaning of the Dickey Effect (though in my mind it has to do with the hitters having to adjust to the weird and slow pitch and then readjust to normal pitching, thus affecting the hitters rhythms). However, I figure something similar would apply as well to the very uncommon situation where Dickey enters in extra innings as a reliever, with Dickey benefiting instead of the following pitcher.

I have no reason to believe there actually is a Dickey effect. There wasn't when I looked at this before (whenever it was!) and there hasn't been this season.

(Naturally, none of these numbers for Jays starters include Dickey's own work.)

               GS   W   L  ERA   IPT     H     R   ER   SO  BB   HR
Overall       122  53  26  3.66  755    671  329  307   65  236  89  
After Dickey   23   6   8  4.01  139.1  124   66   62  119   50  21
After Another  99  47  18  3.58  615.2  547  263  245  538  186  68

"After Dickey" category only includes against the same team that just faced Dickey the previous day.

It would seem logical that a variation of the "Dickey effect" would actually work more powerfully if the opposition hitters must switch from facing 95mph fastballs to facing weird knuckleball pitches -- within the same game.  The adjustment, presumably, would be more difficult from inning-to-inning than if it's merely an adjustment within the same series of games.  But this is all presumption anyway.   Most hitters have faced knuckleballers and have an idea how to adjust to them, even if it's within the same game.  I would guess that most hitters wouldn't be bothered too much by it.  But even a tiny advantage might be worth exploiting.

It is pretty obvious, but I think we can effectively rule out the division now. It was a long shot before this series, and even moreso now. The Red Sox got hot at the right time and are clearly the best team in the division by any metric. If the Jays offense performed like we thought it would, then the race would have been closer, but September has wiped out practically everything good about this team.

TOR 83-69 (+1.0)
BAL 82-70 (---)
------------------
DET: 80-70 (1.0)
HOU: 81-71 (1.0)
SEA: 80-72 (2.0)
NYY: 79-72 (2.5)

Strictly from a schedule standpoint, the Jays could realistically be one of the teams that fall out of the WC spot entirely. They have the AL East remaining, and all the games will have some significance to all teams involved. The O's have 3 against Arizona in addition to the AL East. The Tigers and Astros have a very favorable schedule, especially the Astros.

I'm not sure I trust this team in a one game playoff against any SP at this rate, much less Verlander, Gausman/Tillman, or whoever the Astros throw out there, but it won't be easy to even get to that point.

Four games at home against the Yankees who are almost mathematically eliminated. The guys from the Bronx have 11 games remaining and would need to go 9-2 to reach 88 (which I declared the minimum for a wild card spot back in August).

Houston would need to go 7-3, Detroit, 8-4. While the Jays just need to go 5-5.

The most meaningful September baseball there ever was.

Can't lose that Yankees series. Going 3-1 would put them in a good spot, but they have good matchup against Baltimore.

Not a lot of mystery about this team. in games it has lost this year, it has slashed .197/.281/.315. The BA and SLG are the lowest in the league in games lost. Team OPS in such games is second worst.

In September, it has generally doubled down on bad offence. It is tied with Anaheim for the month's lowest average runs per game 3.63, while slashing as a team .233/.324/.361, for the second lowest team OPS in the AL ahead of only Anaheim. Boston by comparison has a team OPS of .834 in September. In September SLG, the team is virtually tied with Anaheim at the bottom of the AL, well below then next lowest team Oakland. While trailing the league in average runs scored it leads the league in walk for the month, showing both that walks alone won't get you that far as well as the low BA/SLG marker of an aging team that has been mentioned.

Looking at the September numbers, the only players hitting for power on the team are Edwin and Martin. Travis has a high BA (BABIP over .400), but no one else has a BA over .277 (and that's Pillar). When hits are not falling in, strike outs are high, and there's virtually no power anywhere in the lineup except for two sources, it pretty much explains the team's offense this month. Bautista in particular has an ISO of .101 this month and that's after the HR yesterday.

It's likely a combination of a slump, age, injuries, and regression (Saunders), but it's happening at the wrong time. Considering it's been 3 weeks with no end to the slump in sight, it's hard to really predict what happens over the next 10 games other than the SP is going to have to carry them as usual.

One thing is for sure, this team needs to get younger next season.

One thing is for sure, this team needs to get younger next season.

It would be nice, but I'm not sure how exactly that will happen. Who, in their 20s in 2017, figures to get at-bats other than Travis and Pillar? Maybe Pompey. Anyone else?

Meanwhile in Boston, a whole mess of very young killer B's figure to play well and not earn any money: Betts, Boegarts, Bradley and Benintendi.

All this talk about age.

Here's the age of the team Shapiro inherited:

SP Sanchez 23
SP Stroman 25
SP Hutch 25

RP Osuna 21
RP Cecil 29
RP Hendriks 26
RP Barnes 26
RP Loup 28
RP Tepera 28
RP Schultz 30


2B Travis 25
3B Donaldson 30
1B Encarnacion 33
DH Bautista 35
SS Tulowitzki 31
C Martin 33
RF Saunders 29
CF Pillar 27
LF Revere 28

UT Cola 32 / Smoak 29
OF Carrera 29 / Pompey 23
IF Goins 28
C Thole 30


To that clearly not old roster (3 guys over 31, 0 guys over 35) they added this:

Dickey 41
Grilli 39
Benoit 38
Happ 33
Feldman 33
Estrada 32
Liriano 32
Navarro 32
Upton 32
Chavez 32
Barney 30
Biagini 26

To that clearly not old roster (3 guys over 31, 0 guys over 35) they added this:

Dickey 41
Grilli 39
Benoit 38
Happ 33
Feldman 33
Estrada 32
Liriano 32
Navarro 32
Upton 32
Chavez 32
Barney 30
Biagini 26

And all of them on long term contracts, too!

so it should be very easy to get younger, then.

Yeah all of those guys are either done this/next year or one year later (Happ I think is the only guy there). Those guys were signed to support the hitters that they inherited. Of course those hitters are aging a lot faster than some people here expected.

I don't think its going to be easy to get younger. While the Jays have some decent minor league pitching options, their hitting options remain mediocre. I don't think anyone in the minors is going to be ready to contribute til 2018. The two closest to the majors in Tellez and Alford have big holes in their game. At least there is some signs that they plan on overhauling the awful player development we've had, especially on the hitting side. Kind of sad the last decent hitter the Jays graduated from within was Lind or Hill.

Also I shudder to think where the Jays would be this year without the combined efforts of Happ, Estrada, Grilli and Benoit.

I think the signing of Cherington will be big to solving the biggest issue that's plagued the Jays, that being capable options (especially hitting) from within. Imagine if we had some good prospects ready to step in to the bottom three spots in the lineup. Instead of having to throw the guys we have out there because guys like Goins and Pompey aren't that good.

"It would be nice, but I'm not sure how exactly that will happen. Who, in their 20s in 2017, figures to get at-bats other than Travis and Pillar? Maybe Pompey. Anyone else?"


Unfortunately, there does not appear to be many internal options. Pompey as you mentioned can probably take an OF spot or 4th OF spot, but other than him, the closest hitting prospect in the minors is Tellez, and he's probably a year away assuming no setbacks in AAA next season.

I have always been a fan of teams with veteran starters and young position players, so the Cubs/Red Sox model is a pretty good one, IMO. I think that's a much safer way to build a team given how volatile young SP's can be. The Jays have a good mix of youth and vets in the rotation/pen. The offense on the other hand is aging, and the minor league system won't be able to replace any bats lost to free agency. I'm really not sure how that can be fixed in 2017, and the best way to go in 2017 might be to try to find more Estrada/Happ short-term vets to fill holes in order to bide time for prospects. I just don't like watching an old team decline before our eyes. If there is any way to get younger, even if it means taking chances on guys like Puig if the Dodgers still want to move him, then it's worth pursuing.

I agree. If I were a GM I think my team building model would be along the lines of, 'grow the bats, buy the arms'. It seems that model is more predictable and sustainable, in the sense that you generally know what you're going to get from young hitters as they develop. I would try to fill my lineup with good young position players who can really hit, and fill in the rotation by trading for or signing mid-range veteran guys like Happ and Estrada.

Personally, I hope we prioritize getting better instead of getting younger.

The two are usually correlated. (better players are younger) Also good young players are generally a lot cheaper than good old players.

no, younger does not mean better.

And usually correlated does not mean always.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-aging-curves/

In general yes younger is better. Players in general start to decline past 28 years.

which is why i prioritize getting better, not prioritizing something that only sometimes correlates with it.

Yes but good players over 30 are quite expensive. You can't afford a team all made of those players, which is why you need a mix of vets and young players. Other than Travis/Pillar (and Pillar has issues hitting the ball) we lack young hitting options. There is only so many 20 million contracts a team can afford. I just don't understand how you can look at what Jose has done this year and then want to double down on signing those sorts of players? Will Martin or Tulo next year be the story of what Jose is this year?

I don't get why we care about getting younger all.

just draft well. that takes care of that.

"just draft well. that takes care of that"

Of course, because drafting is an exact science, and drafted players make the majors within a year of getting drafted! I can't believe they never thought of that before!

As I see it, teams sign good old players because good young players aren't available. At least not anymore, now that everybody has enough money to keep their young players and not trade them to the Yankees to avoid arbitration.

I am starting to believe that the development of a good farm system is basically luck. I think it's virtually impossible to tell the difference between a young ballplayer destined to be among the 99.99th percentile of ballplayers (a star) and a young player destined to be merely in the 99th percentile (class AAA fodder). Nobody knows anything. I don't know whether this is why the Jays haven't had any hitting prospects for some time, or whether they were focusing on pitchers after having a bunch of young starting pitchers need TJ surgery.

I'm expecting that 2017 will be a crash and burn year, even if they sign Joey Bats and maybe somehow get Votto in a trade from Cincinnati. Old players get worse; it's an inflexible rule.

"Just draft well. that takes care of that."

Hey uo can you tell me the last hitter we drafted that is a league average hitter in the big leagues?

Ortiz (40), Hanley (32), Pedroia (32) beg to differ.

Anecdotes, aka worthless.

""Hey uo can you tell me the last hitter we drafted that is a league average hitter in the big leagues?"

I agree, trading for older guys like bautista Encarnacion tulowitzki martin is the better way. Hoarding prospects is unlikely to give you the team you want.

For example:

Rodriguez(41), Tiexiera (36), Ellsbury (33), McCann (32). Oops guess it didn't work out as well for the Yankees.

"I agree, trading for older guys like bautista Encarnacion tulowitzki martin is the better way. Hoarding prospects is unlikely to give you the team you want."

Red Sox:

Cubs: Bryant, Baez, trading for guys like Russell and Rizzo.
Red Sox: Betts, Boegarts, Bradley, Benentindi, Moncada
Nationals: Harper, Turner, Rendon
Giants: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford.

I could go on.

Are you really sure that trading for old guys is the way the best teams in baseball are building their lineups?

Yup. plenty of bad old players, plenty of bad young players too.

though the yanks are still in the playoff hunt this year, and made the playoffs the past 2yrs.

I'd wager the playoff teams right now are all among the older teams though.

""Cubs: Bryant, Baez, trading for guys like Russell and Rizzo.
Red Sox: Betts, Boegarts, Bradley, Benentindi, Moncada
Nationals: Harper, Turner, Rendon
Giants: Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford.

I could go on."



didn't you just tell me 2 posts ago that we can't rely on the draft?

No I said that the Jays are a failure when it comes to developing hitting prospects and that needs to be fixed. Hiring Cherington is a positive sign. Other teams have no issues developing players from within. Look at the teams I listed plus the Cards, Pirates, Indians, etc. Farrell has his issues but he was dead on when he said the Jays were a scouting-based organization. This org has proved it doesn't know how to develop prospects. Drafting doesn't do much good if you're not able to develop those players into major league assets.

ok, so we've fixed the drafting, which fixes the getting younger issue. so why worry about it?

Because the players and changes in processes are a couple years from bearing fruit? Which leads to what do we do in 2017 and 2018? Those 30 year old + contracts you listed above are all off the books by 2018 at the latest, most at 2017. So the question is how to patch the holes in the lineup the next two years. Also unlikely the Jays are going to be bad enough to get any top 5 picks and really kickstart the system. I think we have to do what Boston did and not sell the good young players and tough through a bad year or two.

I would go out and buy good players, myself. That seems the most straightforward.

as for trading kids, as long as it's a good trade, that's fine. we might be younger if we had hoffman and castro right now but we certainly wouldn't be better.

Aka the general rule is each year post 30 take a half win off each batter. So take a half win each from Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Upton and Smoak (lol) and others. Then add the questions surrounding the 3 DHs we have, the gamble that is betting on which one declines the least and how to fill those holes and we could have a league average or below league average lineup next year. Also the FA market is pretty weak other than there being a glut of DH types out there so there isn't a lot of selection out there to fill those holes.

No team is going to build a roster entirely of homegrown talent. There has to be trades, signings, luck, etc. Draft picks fail more than succeed. There has to be a balance.

Ultimately, the most value a team will get out of a player is from their first six years of service. That's usually their 20's. After they reach their 30's, not only will they be far more expensive to keep around, but skill/performance begins to drop. Some times slowly, some times suddenly, but it will drop. The Jays happen to be a team that relies almost entirely on 30-somethings to win on offense. Travis/Pillar are really their only young position players, and one of those two is a poor hitter whose value comes entirely from base running and defense. That's fine if the 30-somethings are still performing like stars, but as this season has proven, once performance starts to dip, it becomes problematic.

No one would care if the Jays had to pay big money for Tulo/Martin's declining years if they were surrounded in the lineup by Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Moncada, Benintendi, etc. Build the core first, supplement with vets, and then go from there. The Jays went all-in with vets. That has a shelf-life, and we're possibly seeing the end of that shelf-life with this group.

Buy players? With what? Did you see the price this year for marginally decent major league players? The Padres got a top 15 in the minors prospect plus others for Pomeranz. We already blew the wad in minor league prospects. For all the Votto talk there was there isn't the prospects in the Jays system to make a trade for him.

There isn't a good FA market this offseason and our minor league prospects aren't good enough to buy more than a single quality player. There is no easy solutions for the issues that the Jays are facing.

The Jays are a back to back playoff team. They have a nice young core. They have a handful of free agents. Tbey have lots of money. There are no major issues they are facing.

You'll see what issues they're facing when their old players decline, something we've already seen this year. I think most fans watching this year can imagine how the Jays feared offense from 2015 is going to look with the 2017-2018 version.

I do agree with you that we're fine on pitching between the young guys and the vets they added. I think there is a good chance that next year our starters do around as well as they did this year and are once again the strength of the team. I just think their lineup has severe issues going forward.

that's fine - but if you're talking about predictable aging curves i don't see a) why you're thinking the team will fall off a cliff next year or b) what "getting younger" next year entails or will accomplish.

The free agent market is bad, the Jays don't have the prospect capital to trade for any star that might be traded (Chris Sale calibre), and they don't have any young players who can step in and be a viable starting position player next season. Pompey might be able to from a value standpoint if his defense/base running can compensate for his bat, but he's not someone they can realistically pencil in to start in a corner OF spot prior to the season. He'll have to earn his way into that role.

The rotation looks fine. Could use more depth but the pieces are there. Atkins knows how to build a pen based on what we saw mid-season this year. It's really the offense that is the problem, short and long-term, and when you look at the type of upside the Red Sox have in their lineup, as well as the Yankees, and so on, it's hard to see how the Jays can remain in the upper echelon of the AL without JB/EE/MS, even if it's just a WC spot.

I don't see the need to "get young." The idea seems to be motivated by the fact that some of our older guys are not producing as well as you might hope they would in September.

However, I don't think the issue is with the old guys. You're basically complaining about a guy with 42 home runs, last years MVP who has 6.9 WAR on the year, an elite-fielding shortstop whose hitting around league average despite a BABIP that is the lowest of his career, a catcher whose battled injuries and yet is still worth 1.9 WAR (and arguably a lot more if you consider his value to the pitching staff), and an outfielder, who has been disappointing indeed (largely injury related, one would think) but still has a 115 RC+ and an above average .358 OBP.

Putting the best team on the field next year could involve "getting younger." But depending on what kind of money our free-agent guys command it might also be beneficial to "stay old", or at least resign one of our old dudes.

I personally think the core of the offense is still pretty good. I wonder if the problem is actually that too many of the hitters profile the same way - right handed, not particularly fast, power hitters, prone to strikeouts and double plays. It might benefit the team to sign someone (no matter what their age) who is left-handed, a contact hitter, has OBP skills, and doesn't strike out much.

Say, how about we sign Ichiro next year? I say this partly in jest, but I do think he's a better bet to contribute to the team than Melvin Upton Jr. To me he's the big black hole in the lineup right now - his OPS since coming to the Blue Jays is .581, and he's struck out over 30% of the time. He's fast, but he doesn't change the lineup dynamic much otherwise. And I don't have much optimism that he can turn it around given his brutal performance with the Braves which was really not all that long ago.

"Getting younger" means not doubling down on old talent and trying to acquire pieces that are still in their primes. It doesn't mean ignoring old talent completely. If they can sign Bautista for another year, then do it. He's old, but no such thing as a bad one year deal, and the Jays don't have anyone to replace him. However, if they can make a trade for Puig (for example), or steal an undervalued young player from another team, and so on, to me that adds something to the team that they don't have a lot of, and that's upside. I don't want a season where Martin and Tulo have to be the 2nd and 3rd best hitters on the team. They may not have much of a choice, but that's not an ideal scenario.

Fair enough. It's good to note though that risk exists with both options. An old guy might underperform, but it'll only cost you money. A guy like Puig might also underperform (it's very possible that he's now just a clubhouse headache who the league has adjusted to), and would also cost significant prospect capital.

In a sense, a team could also "go young" by signing veterans instead of trading prospects for younger but questionable players.

It really depends on what the final costs end up being, and we don't know exactly what those are until teams start making offers to Encarnacion / Bautista and trade offers to the Dodgers.

It's pretty unfair to suggest that the Jays can't develop position players since the AA / Shapiro FO's haven't really drafted that many - 3 of their top 10 in 2010, 3 in 2011, 4 in 2012, 1 - a punted pick - in 2013 - to focus on drafts that could theoretically be 'restocking' our team next year.

There have been a few high profile disappointments, sure - Nay, Davis, Smith Jr. - but it's a very SSS.

Clearly they wanted to draft as many arms as possible and sign the bats.

Not advocating that we trade prospects for impact position players, but we definitely have the prospect capital for it. The young talent took a major step forward this year with plenty of guys reaching high A, and the aforementioned Pomeranz trade showing that teams are increasingly willing to trade for younger prospects (not that we have an Espinoza in the wings).

Lind or Hill was the last impact position player the Jays developed. At this point its been what 8 years? I think it's past making excuses for them.

Also like you said we don't have an Espinoza in the wings. Therefore I very much doubt the Jays have plenty of capital to make many trades. A league average starter cost the Sox a guy who would be our clear number one prospect plus additional players.

Like SK said we have the capital to maybe make one Pomeranz style deal, and no prospects capable of making a Sale or Votto deal. Low A prospects are a dime a dozen and aren't going to buy much. To pry good players loose you need top 100 and most likely top 50 prospects, if not multiple ones. We have enough of those to maybe make a single impact deal, which wouldn't fill the holes in the lineup.

"I don't want a season where Martin and Tulo have to be the 2nd and 3rd best hitters on the team. "

they're the 6th and 7th best hitters on the team this year. it would take some really crappy GMing for them to ever end up 2nd and 3rd.

"steal an undervalued young player from another team"

isn't the important word there "undervalued", not "young"?

""Also like you said we don't have an Espinoza in the wings. Therefore I very much doubt the Jays have plenty of capital to make many trades. "

How did we acquire the following?

Donaldson
Bautista
Tulowitzki
Encarnacion
Martin
Travis
Saunders

Estrada
Happ
Liriano

Grilli
Benoit
Feldman

Should have said impact trades i guess. Most of those deals there were minor asset for minor asset. EE came back in exchange for Rolen a very good player. Estrada cost us Lind. So that really leaves Bautista and Donaldson. One was a once in a lifetime breakout from Jose and the other was a steal off Beane. I'd love to be able to reproduce those instances but I doubt that's very easy.

"Young" doesn't only mean age, it can also apply to years of control. Donaldson was acquired in his late-20's but with four more years of arb left he was pretty much guaranteed to be incredible value and in his prime over that span. I don't know how many old undervalued talents that would be out there, unless you mean buying low on an older player, which I would not be against depending on the terms (Bautista for example on a 1-2 year deal would be a solid buy low option). Overall, I would like to see a younger team in general. More players in their primes and not on the wrong side of 30. It may not happen in 2017, but the sooner the better.

My main issue is sustainability. I want a team that can compete every year, and doesn't miss a beat even when an older star player leaves. The Jays roster is not built to do that. It might take a few years to build it to that level, but I'm guessing they'll want to win in 2017 and 2018, and that won't be easy given the way the roster is currently constructed. Atkins will have to hit a home run or two in the winter.

Lind or Hill was the last impact position player the Jays developed. At this point its been what 8 years? I think it's past making excuses for them.

But, to repeat my previous point, if they don't draft them, they can't develop them, and they have chosen to draft pitching.

Repeat yourself / straw man all you want, it's still not true.  To wit, Pillar's a pretty fine player development counter example to Lind / Hill (8 career WAR already, 0.2 behind Lind, and a late round draftee at that), Pomeranz has more value than a 'league average starter' given that he's under team control til 2019 and is worth 2.8 WAR and counting this year, and he was traded straight up for Espinoza, not Espinoza + additional players.

If you look at our top 10 prospects and don't see the capital to make a Sale / Votto I literally don't know what to say to convince you otherwise.  We have the capital to get them both if we want (not that I think we should).  We have the financial resources to cover 1B / DH easily.  We have Tulo / Travis / MVP at the rest of the IF.  great catcher, good starting and relief, Pillar, Pompey and Upton in the OF - the way I see it, we have maybe one OF hole to cover before our positional prospects - lead by Tellez, Urena, Alford and Pentacost - start arriving.  Sign a Beltran type vet short term, a pillow contract for a Reddick, or an OF platoon with two bench guys and away we go. 

Our window is open this year and into the foreseeable future.

Like SK said we have the capital to maybe make one Pomeranz style deal, and no prospects capable of making a Sale or Votto deal.

Votto is worth around 3 WAR this year and under contract for another 7 years at almost 200M.
He's currently getting over 22% of the Reds's payroll.
I don't know if I'd be interested as a strict salary dump with no real prospect going back the other way.
Maybe the Reds will be able to unload him for a huge prospect load at some point, but maybe they won't.

Votto is definitely a player who needs some money coming back to the team that trades for him - backloaded contract, aging curve, lousy glove.  I don't think we've seen a player of that stature given away for nothing, so it would likely be a package of minor prospects for Votto and some money, or a package of good prospects and major salary relief. 

But why bother with Votto?  Resign EE (4x25?) to play 1b with Smoak as a defensive sub and Jose on a pillow contract - or perhaps something like this last years Cespedes deal -  to DH and play OF once or twice a week.  We can afford that.

"Getting younger" is about producing depth. When a guy is making the ML minimum, you can send him down when he's stinking up the place, if you have other options. The Jays don't have any other options to promote. When ugly's boyfriend Pompey can't get the job done, when they send him down they have to replace him with someone like Carrera, or Junior Lake, or BJ Upton.

Tanaka is going to miss his upcoming start against Toronto. Will the Jays take advantage of this gift, or will they make some lesser pitcher look better than he really is and lose a low-scoring one-run game?

I agree with the observation that the Jays have concentrated more on drafting pitching than position players. When you look at the young pitchers traded -- Boyd,DeSclafini,Graveman, Norris, Syndergard,Dyson,Musgrove - plus the ones that stayed on the team, Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna, then that's a lot of players that have been developed over the past several years. ( But no position players among them)I also agree we need a few hitters than can spray the ball around a bit so the team can get away from the swing for the fences mode. The way the Jays are going now, I can't see them doing much in the playoffs,if they make it.

The question for me going forward is how they Atkins/Shapiro see Kevin Pillar as a major league player. As bad as he's been at the plate for the Jays, Upton is still a decent center fielder and has a much higher ceiling as a hitter than Pillar. The trade to get Upton seems to hint that they could like to see what they can bring back in trading Pillar.

It's hard to not see major changes coming, regardless of the outcome this season.

To the idea of playing Upton everyday in CF can I just say 'please no, just don't'. Pillar is in his super cheap years still so I'd keep him in CF with Pompey up next year as a backup to Pillar in CF and in a mix/match in LF with Upton unless one of them takes off then the other becomes the 4th OF. Get a new RF on a short term deal (2 years maybe) with one of the 3 free agents (EE/Bautista/Saunders) as DH. Smoak at 1B and hope Tellez can tear apart AAA quickly and come up and move Smoak to the bench.

Rotation looks good with Stroman/Sanchez/Happ/Estrada/Liriano as the core with an assortment at AAA as backup. I suspect Shapkins will go get a new 6th guy or two as backup.

Pen also is decent with Osuna/Biagini/Grilli and I like Danny Barnes as well to join them. Maybe Benoit can be resigned to join in the fun. Brett Cecil might be resigned as well. However, it has been shown again that quality arms can be had for very little for the pen if you pay attention and do a good job scouting. No big free agents or trades here please.

Really, the only things I'd be looking to trade for is a strong starting OF (RF) and maybe a DH/1B. Others are low end pieces that should be cheap as dirt to get (more relievers, 6th starters, etc.) 2B/SS/3B/CA/CF are all manned by all-star quality players and the rotation is almost all that quality outside of Liriano who was that just a year ago.

Ryan Braun is a potential target, signed for 4 years + option after this year at under $20 per with a 141 OPS+ this year. Not great on defense but does play RF and LF depending on need. Odds are EE will cost more than that but Milwaukee is a very low revenue place and being willing to eat that deal would make him cheap in players to get. I see him as the Jays best bet for strong offense at a reasonable price.

Since Pillar entered the league:

Pillar (24-27): 1407pa, 85wrc+, 3.7fwar/650
Upton (28-31): 1783pa, 77wrc+, 1.0fwar/650

This year

Pillar (27): 547pa, 81wrc+, 3.6fwar/650
Upton (31): 527pa, 85wrc+, 1.6fwar/650


I'd hope they're not even thinking there's a choice to be made here.

"If you look at our top 10 prospects and don't see the capital to make a Sale / Votto I literally don't know what to say to convince you otherwise."

Vottto, yes because his contract is awful it won't take much to get him. Sale, absolutely no chance. The White Sox were apparently asking for five top prospects for Sale. They apparently wanted Mazara, Profar, and two or three other very good prospects from the Rangers. The Jays don't have any top prospects right now. The worst things teams can do is keep going for it when their core as they should move on. The Jays can keep trying to compete but they don't have the core to do so with teams with more money and younger, better talent and better systems.

The Jays might not have the talent to match up with Boston next year, but they should be in the mix for a WC berth while they continue to restock the farm system. That might be the sweet spot that allows for both rebuilding and maintaining fan interest / revenue levels as the current core of position players ages out.

Votto just turned 33 and has 7/179 left on his contract. I don't see the current regime having any interest in him even if the cost (in players) was relatively cheap.

There are ways to 'go for it' and rebuild the system at the same time, but it requires some smart free agent signings and trades that do not see top prospects heading the other way. The Liriano trade is a good indicator of this regime possibly trying that philosophy (they got a SP for 2017 and two top 100 prospects in that deal).

As much as I want to see the team get younger, more athletic, higher upside, etc, I think the more likely scenario for 2017 is signing vets to short-term deals to plug holes and bide time for prospects. There could be buy low options out there like Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, or even Bautista if his market dries up, and then a whole glut of old 1B/DH types that they could plug into that spot for a year (Moss, Pearce, Lind, Alvarez, types). They will need to be pretty effective at determining value while not harming the farm system at the same time.

I don't see how they can do it (seriously compete) next season unless they get really lucky with whoever they sign/trade for. A lot of factors are working against them, never mind the upward trajectory of teams they will be competing with. Then again, the Orioles are competing for the 3rd season in the last five years with much of the same issues the Jays will be faced with next year, so who knows.

Injuries and slumps cannot be predicted year to year. You can't assume Boston will finish first next year.

And Detroit has taken the second wild card spot from Baltimore.

The White Sox were apparently asking for five top prospects for Sale.

But they didn't get what they were asking for, so that's not necessarily his value.  Perhaps they won't move him without a stunning haul.

How do you define a 'top prospect'?  BA's mid season top 100?  We had three guys - in the back end admittedly.  And I'd suggest we have a fairly strong collection of guys in the "very good" prospect category.  SRF, alford, urena and Greene for Sale?   Do you need a top 30 prospect to anchor a mega-deal or can you manage it with numerous very good prospects? 

But I absolutely agree that it's not something we should pursue, I just differ that the prospect cupboard is bare. 

Votto just turned 33 and has 7/179 left on his contract. I don't see the current regime having any interest in him even if the cost (in players) was relatively cheap.

Or even if the cost in players was zero. I have a hard enough time imagining EE being offered a 4/100 contract, so I can't see Votto being offered a 7/179 contract (were he an available FA).

If it matters at all, Votto is still very good at baseball. After his awful start, he's now hit .375/.480/.608 since May 30. Would he get 7/179 if he were a FA now? I don't think so, but I could see 4/110 or 5/135.

Building and developing a strong farm with position players is a wonderful goal. If we succeed, will these players arrive and produce in 2017 or 2018? I don't think so. Tellez soon I hope. If decent in 2017 I would promote him in Sept 2017 because he needs to be protected from the rule 5 draft. Necessity or him being very good gets him up sooner. Vlad Jr may also move very fast.
I don't know how you can win with 3 or 4 good rookies hitting in the lineup the same year. That is a lot of rookies and pressure to succeed daily.

So I hope for 1 additional good hitter to go with Travis, JD, Tulo and Martin. I expect that hitter to come from outside the organization. Also someone surprising us like M Saunders or Cola can be that 5th guy if we get lucky again.

Our pitching is very strong IMO, but Happ, Estrada and Liriano do not pitch 7 innings often enough. Happ pitched 7 innings 12 times, Liriano twice and both in May, Estrada 9 times. Stroman 11 times and Sanchez 14 times, with both being on IP limits. Dickey 6 times. I will admit that my standards are likely too high. But that is a very solid 5 man rotation.

Osuna was the only one in the pen who performed as I expected. Very well. Cecil, Loup and Storen performed unexpectedly badly. Everyone else had unknown expectations for me.

I feel with Osuna in the 2017 pen it could be strong because we will need only 2 or 3 good relievers to get to him. Also to handle games that he is unavailable for. If Osuna goes to the rotation the pen is a huge unknown.

Another unknown for me is how much does management want to win in 2017 and 2018. No big moves were made at the trade deadline. I mean nothing that really hurt like trading any top prospects.

Locked in for next year:

SP Estrada (33): 14.5
SP Liriano (33): 13.5
SP Happ (34): 13.0
SP Sanchez (24): .5
SP Stroman (26): .5

RP Grilli (40): 3.0
RP Loup (29): 1.5
RP Osuna (22): .5
RP Biagini (27): .5
RP Tepera (29): .5
RP Barnes (27): .5
RP Schultz (31): .5



2B Travis .5
3B Donaldson 17.0
1B
DH
SS Tulowitzki 20.0
C Martin 20.0
RF Upton 2.5
CF Pillar 0.5
LF Pompey 0.5

UT Smoak 4.1 / Cola 0.5
OF Carrera 0.5 / Ceciliani 0.5
IF Barney 1.5 / Goins 0.5
C

Total: ~$116.0



Lots and lots of payroll room to sign a couple bats.

Or even if the cost in players was zero. I have a hard enough time imagining EE being offered a 4/100 contract, so I can't see Votto being offered a 7/179 contract (were he an available FA).

Just last year, he had 7.6 bWar, OPS+ of 174. Without the -2.4 dWar this season (it was -0.4 last year), he'd be around 5 bWar this season. Lifetime OPS+ of 156, 154 this year. So, as a DH, he'd be worth around $40M this year. Worth $60M last year ($8M/WAR). I'd say he has a good shot to be worth those $179M over the next 7 years (at least oWAR)..

Is it just me, or does anyone else expect Biagini to go back to being a starter next year? That this year, he was just a relief pitcher so they could keep him on the roster the whole season? I've seen lots of people assigning him to the bullpen next year. IMHO, he has a higher chance of going back to starting than Osuna..

Question for everyone. Let's say the FO decides to not go with EE and Bautista next year. Who from this list do you try to sign? For how much, how long, why, and what comps make you think they'll accept the offer?

I don't see much chance of a 27yr old Biagini suddenly being a viable mlb starter.

I'd thank our lucky stars that he's a good reliever.....and even that's assuming that his recent struggles aren't the league getting a book on him and figuring him out.

"Who from this list do you try to sign?"

Eric Thames

I wasn't passing judgment on Votto's current talent level. Nor was I attempting to gauge his value in the marketplace at large. I was simply saying that I don't believe the current regime in Toronto would have an appetite to hand him a 7-year contract.

They don't have any SP prospects projected to start in AAA next season (unless I am forgetting someone), so I'm guessing they'll option Biagini and stretch him out for depth purposes. Whether he is a SP long-term is anyone's guess, but stretching him out in AAA doesn't mean he can't pitch out of the pen for the Jays at some point in 2017. He just seems like the logical guy to act as depth.

I still don't get prioritizing AAA depth over MLB effectiveness.

Eric Thames

Matt Hague

funny....but seriously Thames' Korean numbers are totally insane. Much better than Kang's were. I'd take a flyer on him for sure.

Eric Thames

Matt Hague

OOH.

I'd like to see Biagini at least get a shot at starting.

I'd also love to see Votto in a Jays uniform, but Cincy isn't dumping his salary. He's one of the best pure hitters in baseball. The GM who lets him go for a C+ prospect is probably looking for another job before the end of 2017. Best-case scenario, they're eating a little bit and expecting a very solid return of prospects. Rebuild or not, he's not going anywhere just to relieve contract obligations. Not after the year he's just had.

I still don't get prioritizing AAA depth over MLB effectiveness.

You keep saying stuff like that as if the two are mutually exclusive. I know you think the division-leading Red Sox aren't any better than the Jays, but look at their 7, 8, 9 hitters. Where did those guys come from?

Please provide an example of the Red Sox taking an effective MLBer and sticking him in AAA as depth the next year.

Please provide an example of the Red Sox taking an effective MLBer and sticking him in AAA as depth the next year.

I wish I knew a way to explain to you how badly you're missing the point.

If you think my point is that we don't want good players in AAA you're the one missing the point.

If you think my point is that we don't want good players in AAA you're the one missing the point.

I really don't want to have to walk you though this. Look at other organizations who field MLB teams that consistently lead the Jays in the standings. Here's a tip: start with their minor-league depth, the average age of that depth, and how it was acquired.

I mean, you know you're talking about Sandy fricken Leon, right?

And you know our AAA depth came through in spades last year, with Travis, Colabello, Goins, Carrera, Hendriks, Osuna, Sanchez, right?


Anyways, please give me an example of a team deliberately weakening their MLB roster in order to have better AAA depth to show you even understand what's being talked about.

I'll wait.

Yep. No reason not to.

Joba, Logan Morrison, Wilson Ramos, Trumbo, Brett Anderson, Scrabble, and Nova (not at the $70M/5 year rumor) seem like a more appealing route than over-pays for EE or Bautista.

I would like to see one back but EE may be too expensive (more in years than salary) and Bautista risky. Spreading the risk around and hoping for good years around Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin might be the best way to put together a 2017 team that is well-positioned for the WC.

Sounds like what I'd expect from our current GM. Spread the cash around and hope for someone to do well (ala Happ and Estrada this year) and eat the salary of others (Storen, Chavez, Floyd, Girodo, Morales). Much cheaper than going for the star (David Price) whose ERA is finally down to reasonable levels (3.91).

ugly, I'm quite sure I'll never understand what you think is being talked about. I'll only reiterate that a successful franchise doesn't NEED to weaken its 25-man roster in order to acquire AAA depth.

I don't even understand the argument you're putting forth.

Optioning Biagini to stretch him out is not weakening the big league team, unless they plan on replacing him in the pen with a sub-replacement level player. With reliever volatility being what it is, if they feel he can start, then it's the logical progression for a Rule 5 pick who is blocked at the big league level.

The Jays have been fortunate with injuries this year in the rotation. That might not be the case next season, and Biagini in AAA provides insurance in the event that another SP is needed (much like Hutch did this year even though he ultimately wasn't needed). He has options, he can start, but is blocked in the bigs. It's pretty simple. If they feel they can adequately replace him in the pen, which they should be able to, then the move makes a ton of sense.

If they keep him in the pen that's fine too, it depends what they feel his role is long-term, but they'd need to find AAA depth better than what they've had the past two seasons, especially with the team's best SP prospects lower down in the minors. When injuries do happen, you want to minimize the need for the replacement level or worse minor leaguers. Having good prospects or MLB calibre depth in AAA is going to make handling a long MLB season a lot easier.

A lot of us expected Chavez and Hutchison to start games for the Jays this season. It didn't happen (aside from 1 or 2 from Hutch for rest purposes). That doesn't mean that the Jays will be able to live with 5-6 starters all season every season.

Biagini has been a very good reliever for us this year. Our second best.

Putting him in the minors for depth hurts the mlb team, unless we're finding 6 better relievers somewhere.

Joey Votto @ 7/140 sounds acceptable, which would mean the Reds need to eat 39m (including 7m buyout) - Reds might be willing as they can better spend that money - Lots of talk of EE going to the Red Sox but Votto is a better fit especially if the Reds take back the approx 60m left on Panda's contract in lieu of eating money on Votto's contract.

I want more LHH - sign Reddick & Joyce - use DH spot as a revolving rest spot - I would like to see Montero given a shot as a platoon DH but since the Jays didn't even call him up as a bench bat perhaps they are down on Montero.

Travis
Joyce/RH platoon
Donaldson
Reddick
Tulo
Martin
Smoak
Pillar
Pompey/Upton

Of course, replace Smoak with Votto and Yeah!!

I see Braun as a far more realistic target than Votto. Braun is less liked by his team due to PED's which the Jays have shown they really don't care much about in the past. He is signed for a much cheaper contract as well. Milwaukee has a tight budget and might be willing to send him away for much less in return. Plus Braun plays LF/RF which is a bigger need than 1B/DH which is all Votto can play.

Votto is a great player now, and has been for years, but the seven years he has left are from age 33-39. This regime apparently offered Edwin a two year deal at age 33, and they don't have to give up assets or pay Edwin anywhere near what Votto has left on his contract. I don't see a fit there at all.

This could change depending on how the market shakes out, but the free agents on that list that I'd be interested in are: Gomez, Jackson, Pearce, Moss, and Alvarez. Not exactly a very strong list. Slim pickings.

I would like to see Montero given a shot as a platoon DH but since the Jays didn't even call him up as a bench bat perhaps they are down on Montero.

Well, I'd be kind of down on Montero too, though a September call up wouldn't have been unreasonable. Jesus Montero’s MLB career vs. LHP: OPS 770, wRC+ of 114 (I couldn’t find splits for his minor league career). Similarly vs. RHP he has for his career OPS 664, and wRC+ 76. So, he’s decent against LHP and helpless against RHP. Furthermore, his 2016 (vs. both) at Buffalo was a hardly-beating-down-the-door OPS 787, which was no doubt dragged down by facing RHP.

There’s some hitting talent there, but you’d need quite a bit of roster space (e.g., September) for someone who only does one thing reasonably well, and not so well that you’d care. The main thing on his side is that he’s still only 26. If they can, they should keep him in AAA and see what happens.