Betances implodes at Fenway, Yankees blow a 5-2 lead.

I blame Girardi for letting Parker start that 9th inning with a 3 run lead in such a massive game.

Go to your ace closer for the save, don't get cute.

Betances gave up four runs in 1/3 of an inning. Not much a manager can do about that. Its not like he's not used to coming in the middle of innings either.

if he had started the inning betances would most likely have wrapped up the save by bogaerts at the latest, with no runs scored.

save situation in the biggest game of the year to wrap up your best SP matchup of the series. don't think, go to your closer, imho.

too cute for me.

I believe we had 3 hits in a row today for the first time this month.

I can't figure out Girardi either. I assume he didn't want to use Betances at all - he had a four out save on Tuesday and took the loss against the Dodgers on Wednesday. He was certainly not impressive working the third day in a row against the Jays last week. And Severino worked 2 IP last night, and has never pitched on consecutive days. I would have thought neither was available. And in that case, I really don't get the quick hook for the LHP Layne (who struck out the only guy he faced, a RH pinch-hitter.) You can't let him face Chris Young with a three run lead?

Oh look Donaldson ia good again. That's pretty dang encouraging.

yeah magpie that makes it even weirder - its not like girardi usually worries about putting him out there 3 days in a row or overworking him, and he was still willing to use him in this game in the end..... so he picked one helluva time to get cute.

Tulo just called out on a pitch that was nowhere near the strike zone. He was arguing it and I hope he doesn't get tossed. Need a replay for when umps toss a guy after blowing a ball/strike call badly so the guy can stay in.

that was a legit good catch by Jose off of trout. Might have saved us some runs there.

Now that's more like it.

Happ facing a guy with an ERA over 7? That's one game they couldn't lose.
It's nice to see Donaldson getting several hits.

It's a bad loss in Boston there.

Jays win, Balt loses, NYY lose, Detroit loses. All good. Wildcard may be more likely so new york losing might be better than boston winning.

I dunno. My hope is that the Jays can at stay within striking distance until the final series against Boston. At that point there'll be no need for scoreboard-watching; their fate will be in their own hands.

Good win last night. Nice to see the bats starting to come alive - especially Donaldson's!

Sorry - My hope is that the Jays can at LEAST stay within striking distance.

I guess it's also important that neither of NYY and Baltimore goes on a run. The Jays with a chance to take the division from Boston in the final series of the season would make for some really exciting baseball.

The Jays had a 2 game lead over the Yankees with 4 more games against them at home going into last night's game, so I was certainly rooting for the Yankees to win. It would help the Jays if the Yankees play well over their next 6 games because after coming to Toronto their final 6 games are at home vs. Boston and Baltimore, and we want them to still be playing for the wild card when those series start.

I don't think it's horrible how it would work out if the Jays got the first wild card. We'd have a home game there and then would likely face the Rangers instead of Cleveland or Boston, a matchup I'd prefer. Of course there is the wild card game itself, but we'd be at home and as long as they didn't throw out their scrub AAA pitcher we'd probably hit them well. Also our SP are fairly interchangeable so I don't worry about burning our ace in that game. When Estrada is healthy him, Happ, Sanchez and Stroman are fairly even. Any can dominate, any can lose control and get roughed up.

Resting Donaldson seemed to do him good. That's very positive. Can we do the same now with Estrada?

getting the wildcard is certainly less horrible than some other scenarios at least.

I'll be interested to see how Gibby chooses to fill out tonight's lineup. Upton (8/22), Saunders (9/26), and Smoak (10/34) have good numbers vs. Weaver, but you can't play all 3 if Donaldson needs to DH and you want Bautista and Encarnacion in the lineup as well, unless you sacrifice the D with Upton in CF.

Jesus Montero is 7/14 with 5 HR and 0 K in his career vs. Weaver.

Can we do the same now with Estrada?

For what it's worth, yesterday, downplaying Morosi's non-revelatory revelation, Estrada said that his back issues were actually far worse a couple of months ago, and are "fine" now (likely meaning as good as they can be for a guy with a herniated disc). He was quick to dismiss his recent struggles being a function of his health. Again, for what it's worth.

Jesus Montero is 7/14 with 5 HR and 0 K in his career vs. Weaver.

Good catch, 92-93.  That's the kind of extreme performance that might actually mean something.  Montero did most of his damage in 2011 and 2012 when Weaver was one of the best pitchers in the league.  I've noted before that Melvin Upton Jr. tends to hit pitchers who don't throw 93 better than other pitchers (and he's done well against Weaver in his career).  Smoak has also hit him well. 

So who else would like to see Martin catch Dickey tonight?

I've noted before that Melvin Upton Jr. tends to hit pitchers who don't throw 93 better than other pitchers

Glad to see this is borne out by the statistics. From a subjective perspective, his very long swing would seem inherently problematic against really hard throwers.

So who else would like to see Martin catch Dickey tonight?

I think I'd rather see Jesus Montero do the catching... at least until he's hit a couple of homeruns.

Not me.  I'd prefer that he catch Liriano on Saturday night and Stroman on Sunday afternoon.  If you're going to ask him to catch a day game after a night game, it's probably better to give him the day off with a knuckleballer going the day before that.

It's September 16, which should be a holiday because it is Tim Raines birthday.  In his honour, the birthday club:

LF- Tim Raines
SS- Robin Yount
1B- Brandon Moss
C- Mickey Tettleton
CF- Mel Hall
RF- Heinie Mueller/Robbie Grossman platoon
3B- Gordon Beckham
2B- Desi Relaford

SP- Orel Hershiser
SP- Matt Harrison
SP- George McConnell
SP- Brian Tollberg
SP- Roger Moret

CL- Mike Garman
SU- Paul Shuey
MR- Gary Ross
MR- Ed Sprague Sr.
LR- John Ericks

Bench- Mark Parent, Hector Torres, the platoon outfielder, Buster Mills

Yount is a Hall of Famer, Raines is qualified,  and Hershiser is arguable.  The pitching is thin after Hershiser, so the offence would have to put up 5 runs or more per game.  That might be a lot to ask.

Here's Upton Jr.'s record vs. pitchers. He gets killed by the RH power pitchers- check out his abysmal line against Jason Frasor.   The notable exception is Verlander.  He hits very well the RH pitchers who don't throw hard- Marcum, Haren, Guthrie, Buchholz, Freddy Garcia, Chien-Ming Wang.  The exception, such as it is, would be Greinke.  He has a little more success against LHPs of all types. 

Upton also has trouble with the curve. Not a great combo.

But any pitcher with no velo and no good breaker he can get some hits off of.

I think it's time to stop with the rest days, myself. There's 2 weeks left in the season. one more offday is enough rest. No more days off for our good players.

Upton also has trouble with the curve. Not a great combo.

He's faced Clayton Kershaw 15 times and struck out 10 of them.  You probably want to use Upton Jr. as a 4th outfielder, spotting him against many LH pitchers and a few RH pitchers who lack big heat or a power curve.  He can play all three defensive positions, so if you give him 350 PAs a year, it'll probably work out well. 

Guys who are healthy I'd keep running out there now, but Donaldson has been hurt and needs to be near 100%. Estrada has sucked for a bit now and desperately needs a break I'd say so I'd give it to him if at all possible. Bautista and EE need to be out there everyday now.

We were talking about catchers, John.  Russell Martin is 33 years old and has caught 113 games so far (and played in a few more as DH/PH/2B/3B).  His season totals for his age 30-32 seasons: 117, 107, 120.  I'd love for him to be able to catch effectively every game from here on out, but I think that it's a bad bet (and an even worse one if he is catching a knuckleballer). 

And as for music for today, Mr. Mojo's risin'.

I should've added in Martin who will need rest if you want him to play 1/2 decent in that final series in Boston or the playoffs where he will play everyday as there are 101 off-days during the playoffs it seems. Never more than 3 straight days with a game is the rule I think.

Here's a question. In addition to being Mike Trout, Trout has an especially good record at hitting Dickey in a small sample.  On the other hand, Albert Pujols has no hits or walks in 14 PAs.  Would you intentionally walk Trout with a runner on first base to face Pujols in a one-run game with less than two out and Dickey on the mound (in the middle innings say)?

I would try to throw my wickedest knuckler hoping for swings and misses and if a passed ball/wild pitch ensued it would set up an intentional walk. :)

I saw an interview today where Estrada said that, if anything, his back feels better than after he took time off at the all-star break. It didn't sound like he wants to miss a turn in the rotation, although the team might have different ideas.

W.P. Kinsella died today. He was a fine writer, and most famous for his baseball stories of course.

great canadian. cliche but Shoeless Joe never gets old. RIP.

And hey it looks like the rays are taking their spoiler role seriously against everyone, not just us.

I greatly preferred Kinsella's writing to the movie they made from it. At least Roger Angell is still going pretty strong for someone turns 96 next Tuesday. Here he is last week in the New Yorker.

There can't be very many people left who actually saw Babe Ruth play baseball.

It somehow figures that the author of the Last Pennant before Armageddon, would skip out before the Cubs win the pennant and Trump threatens to become President. I wonder if he thought about that.


And thanks Mike for the LA Woman reminder. It was one of my favourite songs, though I didn't recall the 'God Save the Queen' riff at the beginning. These days, if "I did a little dynamite an hour ago", i'd be in bed for the the weekend.

Ah, Roger Angell. Proving that it is possible to get and give pleasure by writing well into the nineties. Who knew?

For me, the Doors conjure LA like no one else. I love Ray Manzarek's touches on the keys.

Of course.. First ever hit by Pujols off Dickey comes today..

But Dickey got out of an ugly situation there nicely. 2nd & 3rd with 1 out and gets the K, then walks a guy and gets a popout to end it. Phew. Heart attack baseball is what September is all about isn't it?

can we stop playing upton already?

Just wondering - you see Martin might have hurt himself and you don't run for him? Why do you have 3 catchers then?

Osuna should not be pitching the ninth.

Just a manager giving his closer an easy save. Agreed I'd like someone else to go in and do mop up but it won't ever happen. Not with Gibbons, not with any manager.

Besides - he's already warmed up. He's already in the game. The horse has kind of left the barn.

and sending in some depth arm to face the only tough part of their order in the 9th is just asking for it, 5 run lead or not.

To my ears the LA-est LA act in recent memory is Ozomatli. Siguele te llama. Pa'lante, pa'lante...

Biagini's crucial punchout of Buss in the sixth inning with back-to-back changeups was heartening. Even more heartening was slow-motion Donaldson reaching base three more times and also nearly homering to death valley. Is this what he'll look like when he's 37?

Here's hoping for a nice big strike zone this evening.

Many of us are likely waking up to the news of last night's win. When I left off...

• Tampa had failed to help Toronto
• New York had failed to help Toronto
• Buck and Pat were fawning over Pujols like rabid Bieber fans (the production! the production!)
• Pat was counseling the hitters to just see the pitch and hit it (a future in coaching?)
• Jered Weaver was doing his Jered Weaver thing against a team looking for 95 MPH heat from a guy throwing 10 MPH slower

Glad that it ended well. The back end of the bullpen is getting their share of work, I see. That could play a role these next two games.

can we stop playing upton already?

The pessimist in me sees him as a potential starting outfielder next season. So if Upton as a 4th outfielder is wearing on you...

Proving that it is possible to get and give pleasure by writing well into the nineties.

Roger Angell, Vin Scully... artefacts of a different time. They are both truly inspirational to those of us on the back half of life's journey. Lucid, erudite, vital, working their crafts with elegance and grace. Carnival barkers are surely lining up on deck to take their place.

Oh, and Kinsella. Yeah, missed that. Notable for his career, of course, and now the humane manner in which he ended his life.

I'll stop now. I seem to be monopolizing the board.

No one else is awake, Chuck!

Except me, and I just got home from work. And I'm going to bed! Later, dude. There - some L.A. talk, of sorts.

Except the Jays aren't in L.A., of course. They're in Anaheim, more or less across the street from Disneyland. The Dodgers play in Los Angeles. The Angels don't.

Tampa had failed to help Toronto

First they cough up a lead in the eighth inning. Then they get the tying run thrown out at home to end the game.

And the Yankees folding up and playing dead for the Red Sox. It's the 21st century and all the true Yankees are rolling over in their graves.

I'm enjoying the Jays pen lately. Lets hope it keeps going.
6th: Biagini (Rule 5)
7th: Benoit (traded for Storen who sucked here and was poor in Seattle who we got for Ben Revere who has a 50 OPS+ for Washington this year, who was had for 2 minor league relievers)
8th: Grilli (traded for via guy who threw 1 inning for Atlanta's minors before being released)
9th: Osuna (international FA, rushed to majors)

Can't complain about that. Net cost was a bit of cash and some minor leaguers who were cannon fodder with 2 'major leaguers' mixed in over time who sucked in 2016. This is why I don't like the idea of blowing a fortune on the pen. It can lead to nightmares in the first half of a season but so can spending a fortune (see Brett Cecil, Drew Storen as examples here in 2016 and guys like Jonathan Papelbon as strong exhibits, or the NY pen that was super-expensive but couldn't save them, then they got hot after dumping all but one)

Offense needs to get better. That could have very easily been a loss last night if Dickey and Benoit hadn't pitched out of jams. If they hadn't and we're down 3-2 in the ninth instead of up, they likely use their closer and we lose that game. Donaldson seems to have recovered to some degree, but need to see more improvement from everyone.

they likely use their closer and we lose that game

Who even is their closer? Is he distinguishable at all from their non-closers?

The pen can't go 6, 7, 8, 9 every night.

Barnes, Cecil, Loup and Fieldman have to be good enough to close a game and that's usually either a blowout win or a loss.

The next couple of weeks are shaping up to be a great race in the AL East. Here is how the respective contenders' schedules stack up:

Baltimore (15 games remaining, including 9 home games):
vs TB (2 games)
vs Boston (4 games)
vs AZ (3 games - no Greinke)
@ Tor (3 games)
@ NYY (3 games)

Boston (15 games remaining, including 5 home games):
vs NYY (2 games)
@ Baltimore (4 games)
@ TB (3 games)
@ NYY (3 games)
vs Tor (3 games)

Toronto (15 games remaining, including 7 home games):
@ LAA (2 games)
@ Sea (3 games)
vs NYY (4 games)
vs Balt (3 games)
@ Bos (3 games)

Arguably, Baltimore has the easiest schedule (nine home games including three against Arizona sans Greinke). The Jays probably have the next-easiest schedule (seven home games plus two remaining games against LAA). Boston has the toughest schedule (only five home games and all 15 remaining games are against AL East opponents).

I think Boston has to be the favourite to win the division, as they have a two-game lead with 15 to play, a strong roster bolstered by deadline acquisitions, and the best run differential in the league. And, of course, they've been playing very well of late.

Baltimore is a flawed-but-pesky team that has a great shot at a WC spot and a surprisingly decent chance of poaching the division.

Toronto is roughly in the same situation as Baltimore. They're probably a better team than Baltimore, at least on paper, but they've had some performance and injury issues of late that suggest a wide range of potential outcomes over the next couple of weeks.

In addition to performance, luck and maybe injuries could well be a major factor in the remaining games.

"....In addition to performance, luck and maybe injuries could well be a major factor in the remaining games...."

Luck and injuries are always a bigger factor than we realize.

a little seperation between us and the other divisions' wildcard contenders now. though houston looks like a threat still.

Luck and injuries are always a bigger factor than we realize

Especially as the sample size of games decreases. And there is now less than 10% of the season remaining.

a little separation between us and the other divisions' wildcard contenders now.

Detroit could prove problematic in all this. They have 9 "easy ones" left against Minnesota, KC and Atlanta. They do have 6 left against Cleveland but that might be a weakened version resting its regulars for the playoffs (not the 2 games this weekend, but the 4 later).

Detroit is still in the WC race, but it currently looks like somewhat of an uphill battle for them, as they're a full three games behind both Toronto and Baltimore. Add the M's to the mix, as well as the Astros, which are only one game behind the Tigers and have a favourable schedule as well. Lots of competition, so not much margin for error.

What's Detroit's record against KC, Minnesota, and Atlanta? Is it worse than the Jays' record against Tampa?

Det v Cle: 1-12
Det v KC: 6-10
Det v Minn: 12-4
Det v Atl: no record

imo a key to the stretch games is whether the teams we play still have hope.

will NYY and SEA still have hope and going full bore with full pumped lineup or will they have just had their dreams shattered and send out resigned and half full lineups when we play them?

tampa already had their time to sulk and have now embraced the spoil role but that's not easy to do if you've just been eliminated.

Price is getting hit around today. Hopefully the Yankees can bridge to a now rested Betances, perhaps with Severino and Clippard.

".....will they have just had their dreams shattered and send out resigned and half full lineups when we play them?...."

Two points to make here:  first, I believe MLB teams have a tradition that they basically must deploy their first-string lineups when they are playing against playoff contenders in the final weeks of the season, even if they have been eliminated.  Otherwise, if they send out a lineup full of prospects and bench players, they would be widely condemned for unfairly influencing the results of the playoff drive.  Of course an eliminated team might tend to rest a veteran who has a minor injury, even if that veteran might be able to play if it was a meaningful game, so it's true that the eliminated team's lineup might not be quite as strong as it was before its elimination.  But you won't see any "tanking" teams that send out a lineup full of 22-year-old prospects.  Under the "honor" system, that's not really allowed.

Second, baseball is not hockey.  It doesn't depend on "emotion" and "morale" and "grittiness."  It's a sport based on individual performances, and those performances have to be cool and collected and calm.  Players can still play very well, even if their season is over.  (See: the Tampa Rays.)  And even after they've been eliminated from the playoffs, players are still motivated by their own individual reasons: future contracts, future lineup spots, and professional pride.  So I don't think you're going to see a lot of teams that are so demoralized and "resigned" that they perform worse than their usual abilities.

Another nice "You Be The Manager" bullpen question for today. In tonight's game, working backwards from the 9th inning in a close game, 3 runs or less ahead or tied or 1 run down.

My choices:
9th inning- Biagini (Osuna for one batter with a one run lead if absolutely necessary)
8th inning- Cecil regardless whether he has the platoon advantage
6th and 7th- Barnes
Earlier- Feldman for 3 innings

another way of illustrating the giant hole in our lineup this year:


Offense by Batting Order:

1-3

TOR '16: 2021pa, 90hr, 306r, 268rbi, 17/21sb, 126wrc+
BOS '16: 2070pa, 68hr, 331r, 274rbi, 38/50sb, 126wrc+
TOR '15: 2225pa, 104hr, 347r, 338rbi, 40/47sb, 132wrc+

4-6:

TOR '16: 1895pa, 89hr, 233r, 275rbi, 12/20sb, 115wrc+
BOS '16: 1926pa, 79hr, 262r, 298rbi, 24/30sb, 119wrc+
TOR '15: 2076pa, 86hr, 293r, 311rbi, 15/24sb, 122wrc+

7-9:

TOR '16: 1738pa, 29hr, 168r, 134rbi, 15/24sb, 60wrc+ !!!
BOS '16: 1762pa, 45hr, 226r, 212rbi, 16/20sb, 97wrc+
TOR '15: 1931pa, 42hr, 251r, 203rbi, 33/40sb, 99wrc+

I couldn't disagree more with your 2 points, China.

"....I couldn't disagree more with your 2 points, China...."

Obviously you disagree, since I was challenging your assertions.  But what is the evidence for your opinion?  I assume you've got some data or logic that supports your view?

what teams use September callups more - contending ones or eliminated ones?

and do you really think its even possible to bring the same intensity you had hunting for a playoff spot to the handful of games after being eliminated for the season?

>> Second, baseball is not hockey.

> I couldn't disagree more with your 2 points, China.

It's funny how the game changes over the years. It was only after they brought the Zamboni on during the seventh inning stretch that I realised this wasn't my grandpa's game anymore.

It can go either way. The '86 Jays folded their tent when they couldn't catch the Red Sox and lost 7 of their last 8. Two years later - same manager, mostly the same players - they won 15 of their last 18 and the final standings looked like they'd actually been in contention to the end. They weren't.

"....do you really think its even possible to bring the same intensity you had hunting for a playoff spot to the handful of games after being eliminated for the season?...."

Success in baseball doesn't depend on "intensity."  That's just a variation of the old myths about the need for managers to "fire up the team" with "clubhouse speeches."  Baseball players are professionals, with millions of dollars riding on their performances, and they don't need to have their "intensity" woken up.  The fact that Tampa has done so well against the Jays this month is proof that "intensity" is irrelevant.  The Jays should have had all of the intensity, and the Rays none of it, yet the Rays won 4 of 6 games.

"....tampa already had their time to sulk and have now embraced the spoil role but that's not easy to do if you've just been eliminated...."

Your explanation, apparently, is that the Rays lost their intensity and then mysteriously regained their intensity, because they "embraced their spoiler role."  So presumably any eliminated team could regain their intensity and their spoiler role at any moment.  Therefore a team's success or failure can't be predicted on the basis of whether they've been eliminated from the playoffs, but only on the basis of the unpredictable "intensity bird" which can alight at any time.

Speaking of luck and injuries, Carrasco may be done for the season with a fractured right hand. The rough equivalent for the Jays would be losing Stroman for the season. Extremely tough break (no pun intended) for the Tribe.

With Carrasco and Salazar gone for the season, Cleveland's rotation is looking a little thin.

"Success in baseball doesn't depend on "intensity."

This is why I just gave my simple response to you instead of starting an argument, as this is a profoundly silly notion you have. And please, don't bother coming back with your straw man argument saying that I think intensity is the only important factor in winning baseball.

"It can go either way. The '86 Jays folded their tent when they couldn't catch the Red Sox and lost 7 of their last 8. Two years later - same manager, mostly the same players - they won 15 of their last 18 and the final standings looked like they'd actually been in contention to the end. They weren't."

would be interesting to analyze the numbers.

but the teams i'm looking at resemble those 86 jays, not the 88 jays - NYY and SEA have been make legit playoff surges and are in contention....and i'm hoping that we get them in that heartbreak moment when they've just had their playoff hopes dashed.

a team way out like those 88 jays (or like this year's rays) can obviously find the motivation to keep playing hard to the end of the year....and when they have good talent like those 2 teams had and have, they make the best spoilers.

Seeing Jays getting thrown out at 3rd base is getting old.

Travis still makes a lot of mental mistakes. Will be nice when he settles in and doesn't rush things.

That being said, who would think that Travis would lead off three of the first five innings with a hit and the heart of the lineup would flub on doing anything. Clearly this is the fault of the bottom third of the lineup.

That didn't bother me, Chuck.  If he makes it 25% of the time, it's a good play because of the huge difference between the run expectation between first and third nobody out and runner on second one out. 

Encarnacion and Bautista both look totally out of their depth facing Nolasco. 

Liriano is giving them innings, and that is exactly what the club needs.

Ugh defense. :(

Just when you think the ship has been righted, the Jays get stymied by a guy who wasn't good enough for the Twins.

It's like the team's hitters are surprised to see breaking ball pitchers throw breaking balls.

If he makes it 25% of the time

In principle, it's not a bad idea because of that potential payoff. But it was still a bad idea tonight. That's Andrelton Simmons playing shortstop. There's none better. You're not going to make it 5% of the time, never mind 25%.

And I'm also not wild about putting the double play in order for the two RH sluggers who lead the team in GIDPs. If you're going to try it - and yes, the payoff makes it a gamble worth trying from time to time - I'd much rather see it from a different part of the lineup.

Simmons is one variable. Another is how long the ball will take to get to him. You're judging that in a tiny fraction of a second and can't possibly know for sure.

I think the Travis play at 3rd was fine. It took a basically perfect play to just barely get it. I think he's safe at least 2/3 to 3/4 of the time if not more (some of those times the defense makes the play at 1st instead).

I thought it was a cardinal rule that if you are a runner on second and the ball is hit to your right, you wait to see if it gets through, especially with none out. Sometimes I think the Jays are just trying to do too much individually - trying to take an extra base at an inopportune time, swinging for the fences instead of just making contact,etc.

3 errors. 4 unearned runs. Leadoff man aboard 6 times. Man on second with nobody out 4 times. 1-12 with RISP. 12 LOB. Another baserunning error Little Leaguers should not make (Travis must realize he is in scoring position with the heart of the lineup coming up). The offensive frustration continues.
Seemingly to me, the hitters should be sitting on fastballs away & then attempting to drive the ball to the opposite field. Often we see exagerrated shifts in defensive configurations toward extreme pull alignments against the Jays hitters, while pitchers still pitch away expecting the Jays hitters to roll over on the pitch resulting in lazy ground balls. Same pattern seems to occur with runners on base, as we witness frequent tailored made double play ground balls. I'd love to see a rigid offensive game plan where the hitters are entirely focused on driving the ball to the opposite field, if teams counter by coming inside I welcome that with open arms. Travis continously employs this strategy & is having success with it. This approach would be favourable than watching the copious caught looking third strikes & mundane pop outs that we witness far too frequently. This offence needs more hits.

This offence needs more hits.

For good or for bad, the Jays are a definite TTO (Three True Outcomes) team.

In the AL, they rank 2nd in HR, 1st in BB and 3rd in K.

Though they rank 13th in hits (and 13th in singles), they rank 3rd in times on base.

They rank 2nd in GIDP to the Angels, a team that strikes out only 72% as often as the Jays (so puts many more balls in play and thus should lead the league in GIDP).

They collectively profile as an older player (like TTO players usually do), and that makes sense since they rank near the top in weighted average age. It's a good enough recipe to be above league average in scoring, but definitely frustrating to watch when it's not working.

Not being greedy, sometimes all we fans want to see is a humble single (like many times last night). But that's not this team's game. This seems like a silly ratio, but bear with me. Their ratio of XBH+BB to singles is the highest in the league (KC's is the lowest). This is consistent with our observations about their offensive approach being "go big or go home". When they ain't going big, guys like Nolasco are owning them.

I'm not suggesting that the existing personnel should necessarily try to change their approach (if that's even possible), but this is who this collection of players happens to be. Humble little singles is not in their collective DNA. If Vladimir and Estragon get on base, don't hold your breath waiting for Godot to single them home.

I thought it was a cardinal rule that if you are a runner on second and the ball is hit to your right, you wait to see if it gets through, especially with none out. Sometimes I think the Jays are just trying to do too much individually - trying to take an extra base at an inopportune time, swinging for the fences instead of just making contact,etc.

Yep. Terrible baserunning by Travis. Ball in front of you, rule of thumb is you don't go. Plus, you hate to make the first out of the inning at third base, especially with 2/3/4 hitters coming up.

So Meyer, the LA starter today has a 8.18 ERA for the season. My question is can this team score more than 3ER off of him?

Oh boy.  Let's first run the mathematics.  Top of the fifth inning. Visitors down by 1 run.  Three possibilities- runner on second, one out, runners on first and third nobody out, and runner on first, one out.  What are the win expectancies for each of the situations?

R2, O1- .350
R1,3 O0- .515
R1, O1- .327

In general, the break point is .350= .515 x+ .327 (1-x) .  If you solve, you get x= .12. My off-the-cuff 25% figure was too high by a factor of 2. 

The general rule might be good for little leaguers, but it's a bad rule of thumb  for major leaguers.  A fast runner should always go on the ball where the shortstop has to range towards the second base bag to get the ball.  The reversal of momentum combined with the length of the throw make it a very difficult play for the shortstop and one which is rarely attempted.  The play in the 5-6 hole is a very different story.  Sometimes the runner will go and the shortstop actually has an easier play on the runner than he would on the batter.  This changes the mathematics entirely. The one right at the shortstop or slightly on his bag side is a complete judgment call, and that is what this one was. 

In the particular case, Simmons is a fabulous defender but I don't agree that he makes that play 95% of the time.  He had to turn, get the ball out of his club and make a throw low, but not in the dirt to get him.  The ball hit the heel of his glove and he was off balance when he made the throw.  It worked, but there's no way that he makes that one 95% of the time.  Inside Edge has some classifications of plays.  This one, for shortstops in general, was either unlikely 10-40% even 40-60% or likely 60-90%.  In his career, Simmons converts 44% of the unlikely plays, 80% of the even plays and 80% of the likely plays (and 99% of the routine plays).  I'd venture a guess that Simmons makes that play 70-80% of the time, but  on some of the misses, the ball ends up getting past Escobar with Travis scoring and Donaldson at second.  Now you could argue that the win expectancies are somewhat different with Encarnacion and Bautista to follow.  I personally don't see it.  With Travis on second and one out, Encarnacion is much more likely to be pitched around and either struck out or walked, and there is a substantial difference between Encarnacion and Bautista at this point. 

The club did have some rough moments on the field.  On a couple of plays Tulo was late to the bag to receive the ball- it wasn't clear to me whether there was miscommunication about coverage or what.

Incidentally, the shortstop's positioning is important in the judgment.  Take the ball right at the normal shortstop position and in front of the baserunner.  If the shortstop is playing in the hole and ranging to his left, it's almost always a good play to go.  If the shortstop is playing up the middle and he's ranging to his right, it is usually not a good play to go because the shortstop's momentum works in favour of a throw to third and against a throw to first. 

The one right at the shortstop or slightly on his bag side is a complete judgment call, and that is what this one was.

A judgment call usually means don't try unless you're sure to make it. So, bad judgment here.

the way I see it is rookies make rooke mistakes. Travis is just now coming up on one full season in the bigs. And I'll always be more forgiving to mistakes of aggression than laziness.

so at best we're looking at 4-3 vs the 2 weak spots that were left on our schedule. That's not good enough. Almost more depressing than getting beat by contenders in the previous series.

4 games sweeps are pretty rare, especially on the road.  If Boston manages to sweep the Yankees, then good for them.

Speaking of which, Travis' career:

151gms, 617pa, 18hr, 87r, 83rbi, 6/8sb, .823ops, 121wrc+, 4.7fwar, 5.1bwar, 5.2awar/650

One of the most impressive 1st full seasonish starts to a career of any Jay I can think of.

even better because he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all....2016 2nd half stats:

221pa, 125wrc+, 1.7fwar, 5.0fwar/650

I've asked before if 88 games was enough for a wild card. Several people said no, but the 3 teams chasing are now 78-70. One of them would need to go 10-4 to reach 88 wins. Seems unlikely.

Well the heart of the lineup continues to perform lately. This is getting pretty frustrating.

The O's are currently on pace to win 89 games.

Evidently, Trout and bees do not get along.

Runner out at 3rd. How novel!

This is painful.

"The fundamentals are strong", Sen. John McCain once (in)famously said. He clearly wasn't referring to your 2016 Toronto Blue Jays.

Lots of base running and defensive gaffes lately.

Navarro is starting to make me miss Josh Thole, backup catcher.

Trout is one hell of a player.

Dioner Navarro, not so much.

But enough of this nonsense, time for a 3-run HR.

It's pretty amazing that Bautista's throw did beat Trout to the plate by a noticeable margin. 

Meyer entered the game having allowing 15 runs in his career 13.2 innings. Now 5 shutout frames against the Jays. Sigh.

What's really amazing to me is that Devon Travis -- a 25-year-old with less than a full season in the majors -- is able to consistently hit all of these opposition pitchers in all of these games, while the rest of the lineup struggles.  How is it that a 25-year-old kid can hit them, but the veterans cannot?  That tells me that these pitchers aren't particularly good, it's the veteran Jays who have forgotten how to hit.

Or the other possibility is that Devon Travis is a fine hitter against all types of pitching and that the veteran hitters are not at their best for various reasons. 

The Jays should just stop swinging. Maybe they will issue four walks and we'll get a run that way. Leave the bat in the dugout.

choking

Devon Travis is indeed a fine hitter.  But that doesn't explain why he's the only guy in the lineup who is hitting.  He's not the only fine hitter in this lineup.  My point is:  if Travis can hit these pitchers, the other hitters should be able to hit these pitchers. 

Martin and Tulo have been hitting the ball pretty well mostly. 

Donaldson and Bautista have injuries that appear to be affecting them.  Encarnacion may not be at his best because of off-field distractions. 

The Jays should just stop swinging.

Well, Bautista just tried that and got rung up on a pitch three inches off the plate.

C.B does not stand for Called Ball.

Travis has an OPS of .848 this month.  

Donaldson has an OPS of .632 this month.  I'm sure injuries have something to do with it, but not everything.

Encarnacion has had a good September, but his OPS over the past six games is just .564.

Bautista has an OPS of .669 this month.  I don't buy the argument that he's still affected by injuries.

Saunders, Upton, Pillar and Smoak have all hit poorly this month.  Tulo and Martin have been okay. So that's three or four hitters (out of nine) who have hit adequately in the most important stretch of the season.  My point remains:  if Travis is capable of hitting these pitchers, a few others should be able to hit them too.  He shouldn't be the only guy who is consistently able to solve these pitchers

China, it could be that there just isn't much of a book out on Travis as there is on all the veterans. Maybe the opposition just hasn't figured out how to avoid pitching to his strengths yet. Here's hoping they never do.

But yeah, it's very frustrating watching these great hitters struggle so badly against barely-above-replacement-level talent. It might be confirmation bias, but as a team they sure seem to struggle against bad pitching.

Martin has actually hit worse than Jose this month. Tulo has been playing well, but really that leaves three hitters in the lineup doing well this month. Tulo, Travis and Encarnacion. Jose, Josh and Martin are hovering at slightly below replacement, Pillar and Upton at about 70 WRC and the rest at close to zero or well below. Saunders -14 really hurts considering how much playing time he's still seeing. Maybe Pompey should take Saunders spot. I doubt he can hit worse and his defense would make the team better.

And the guys hitting that well isn't that great. Travis is near 130 WRC but the other two are just below 120. Which likely means Travis is the only person on this team hot atm. When the Jays had that insane run last year EE and Josh put astounding numbers up.

If Gibby is going to get fired for missing the playoffs he is going to do so with his veterans it seems. Oh well.

Pompey has been on the bench for a long time. At any rate, he's not getting any at bats this year.

It's looks a lot like April. At least October is another month if they can get there.

I so wanted to get angry at Pillar for beaking at the ump on his way back to centre field, but I just couldn't - he already swings at everything, so who cares if the umps call close pitches against him?

At least Bautista stopped him from getting thrown out.

At least Bautista stopped him from getting thrown out.

You notice Bautista had almost completely stopped barking at the umpires this year? Maybe he needs to go back to it. In which case, his reaction to Bucknor ringing him up would be.... grounds for optimism?

At this point, I'd be happy to see Pompey in the lineup instead of Saunders or Smoak or Upton.   He can't be any worse.  The situation is getting to the point where they'll have to try something to shake up the lineup.

The silver lining is that Donaldson and Bautista and Encarnacion could heat up again at any moment.  But I was expecting that to happen weeks ago.  At this point, there's really no guarantee that it will happen in time to salvage the season.

What was Trout chewing on out in centerfield?  Was that a limp cigarette strand of gum?  If so, we've found something he cannot do.  The man needs to work seriously on chewing gum...

Yeah I'm about ready to put Saunders out to pasture myself. I'd rather see just about anyone out there at this point, including Zeke and Pompey. I don't know what made him hit so well in the first half, but he doesn't have it anymore.

Well Smoak is barely playing at this point, he has 12 ABs all month. So other than when EE needs a spell at 1b he shouldn't be playing. The of right now should be Upton, Pompey and Pillar with Bautista at DH. Of course collectively the offensive potential of that group is crap, but at the least it should maximize the defense.

With this not so great(horrible) second half will there be any consideration for a qualifying offer or even an attempt to sign him back?

Ground ball, double play. You've gotta be kidding me.

We really needed to take 3 from this series.

I don't think they can afford to qualify Saunders anymore at this point. Too much risk he accepts. Only so many people we have that can play DH.

this is really starting to look like a september disaster for the history books.

They might make the wild card still. They still have a two game lead there. To me this team looks partly like they're choking and partly like they're old. Travis and Tulo seem to be the only full time fielders holding up over a full season.

I'm not a huge Pompey guy, but I hope to see Gibbons try some new things (like him) next series. Who knows, maybe he can get hot at the right time. At the very least he's got speed.

That didn't bother me, Chuck. If he makes it 25% of the time, it's a good play because of the huge difference between the run expectation between first and third nobody out and runner on second one out.

The thing is, success on running here seems to be much less than 25%. Defense is well aware of the downside of runners on 1st and 3rd with none out, so the throw to third is made only when it's a sure thing, or almost that. it's bad base running.

the age argument doesn't fly imo.

look at boston's september performance:

wrc+

Young (32): 34pa, 213
Ramirez (32): 65pa, 204
Ortiz (40): 53pa, 183
Pedroia (32): 69pa, 125
Hanigan (37): 8pa, 115
Hill (35): 14pa, 107

Shaw (26): 42pa, 127
Bradley (26): 60pa, 115
Holt (28): 25pa, 112
Leon (27): 53pa, 93

Benintendi (21): 7pa, 185
Bogaerts (23): 70pa, 99
Betts (23): 70pa, 62
Moncada (21): 20pa, 31

Boston's old guys are the ones leading their surge.

That didn't bother me, Chuck.

I've been watching Mr. Robot which if anyone knows, features a protagonist who has a tenuous grasp of reality, and may well be schizophrenic. So as viewers, we are at the mercy of the unreliable narration he provides.

All of this is to say that I am seeing a new (?) poster here who is maybe (?) spoofing Mike Green, commenting on my gripe about an out at 3rd base the same way he did.

And then I am wondering if there is a caching issue and I am seeing Mike's comment again. Or if I am perhaps in the throes of a stroke seeing Mike's comment but with a different poster's name.

Or maybe there is no Mike Green, and he never existed. Or maybe I don't exist. I'll be fine. Where are my meds?

Or maybe he's responding to Mike Green.

The age stuff is the most tiring and lazy of narratives. Last year it was their veternaness that allowed them to be hot in September as they had the experience of etc etc. This year they suck in September because old players fall apart. If Travis were having a bad September it would be because he's too young and doesn't have the experience and yadda yadd, but when he plays well in September it's because he's young and therefore has energy and etc. etc.

Anyway, 1 run scored in the final two games of the series, facing a team that has 93 pitchers on the disabled list. What more is there to say.

A few of the Jays players have played a lot this year -- Encarnacion (146 games), Donaldson (141), Martin (123 -- high for a catcher). I don't know whether the artificial turf takes an extra toll, but if it adds even 5% wear-and-tear over the course of a season, that's like playing an additional half-dozen or more games.

One reason why I predicted no more than 87 wins for this team is because of the likely impact of injuries on an aging roster that carried some injury risks. So far this year, basically every starting position player on the team has been hit with injuries of some sort, some apparently of the ongoing/nagging kind.

Or maybe he's responding to Mike Green.

Yes, could well be.

Call it age, call it injuries, call it players plus thirty not holding up as Lyell over a full season. I think to various degrees Donaldson, Martin, Pillar and Bautista are all injured and it's hot helping them perform. I think EE and Tulo are decently healthy, but right now we have 3-4 players who can all use significant DH time but only one DH position to put them at.

I guess we need more Lyell.

Can he play OF adequately? Anyway dumb iPad autocorrect getting me again.

Why are sub par starters having success against this lineup? Every team is using the same pattern, fastballs & breaking balls away. This lineup continues to try pulling the outside pitch with disastrous offensive results down the stretch. I would hope that the coaching staff is implementing hitting strategies focused on pitching patterns as the current approach is simply grotesque. Would an approach firmly presented by Gibby & Jacoby stating "we must look for the fastball away exclusively until we have two strikes" help the hitters to adjust? I think it would. Right now hitters look completely befuddled & surprised with called strikes away. The hitters seem to lack an effective plan of attack right now. It's akin to a football offence trying to run the ball versus a 3-4 front while using blocking assignments for a 4-3 front....confusing & ugly to watch.

The ideal outcome today was:

-Jays win
-Baltimore loses
-Detroit loses
-Houston beats Seattle
-NYY beat Boston

It didn't quite pan out that way.

It's possible to blame age, approach, etc., but if you take away the otherworldly August and September of 2015 (which feels so much more than a year ago), this team has played to a .524 clip over the past two seasons (131-119). Obviously you can't take those two glorious months away from them or us fans, but that performance over the longer term translates to about 85 wins, or a good but not particularly great ball club. This team has the opportunity to do better than that, but 250 games is a large enough sample size to perhaps provide some caution about what really ought to be expected from this collection of players. The good news is that at this stage they don't need to go on a historic two month roll; if they can scuffle along another couple of weeks, one month ought to do it.

I've been watching Mr. Robot

Very happy to see Rami Malek walk off with an Emmy tonight. Even happier to see the incredible Tatiana Maslany finally - finally! - get the one she's deserved for so long.

Thank you, Yankees. Thank you for nothing.

Ouch, listening to a radio spot that was saying 2-6 were 0/18 yesterday.

2nd half wrc+ (min 50pa)

Martin 137
Encarnacion 132
Donaldson 130
Travis 127
Tulowitzki 106
Bautista 104
Saunders 69
Pillar 64
Upton 50

Smoak 73
Barney 59
Navarro 43
Carrera -11

Just look at Upton and Carrera. How could Pompey possibly be any worse?

It's quite possible he is. The guy hasn't done very well at AAA this year. A 105 WRC and .700 OPS at AAA doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Pillar for example was a consistent 135 WRC hitter at AAA and is as you show above a 64 WRC hitter in the second half this year.

Even happier to see the incredible Tatiana Maslany finally - finally! - get the one she's deserved for so long.

She was great in her guest spot on Parks and Recreation

Why are sub par starters having success against this lineup?

Smaj, it feels like this has been a problem forever with the Jays.
As to why now? The team is just off right now in so many ways.

How far have Saunders and Smoak fallen in Gibbons' esteem? His 7th place hitter tonight has a 561 OPS against RHP.

In his last 21 games, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .390/.444/.866 with 12 HRs, 29 RBI, and 19 Runs scored. Which over 162 games would be 93 HRs, 224 RBIs, and 147 Runs Scored along with the 1.310 OPS.

The swarm of bees will probably show up in Seattle too...

I want to be on record that I don't think estrada should start this game.  He needs rest.