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Here we go.


The 2016 Red Sox made a big investment in pitching this past winter. They traded four prospects for Craig Kimbrel and gave David Price all the money in New England. And it's helped - while league offense is up in 2016 the Sox have given up fewer runs this season: 4.41 per game, sixth best in the league. But they had pretty well nowhere to go but up. The 2015 Sox allowed 4.65 per game, and only Detroit allowed more. David Price isn't having his best season, but he's still David Price - he leads the league in IP, has struck out 200 batters for the fifth time, and won 15 games for the fifth time. He's also gone 6-0, 2.14 in his last six starts. After an unimpressive first season in Boston, veteran Rick Porcello is having by far the best season of his career. Steven Wright's status is unclear at the moment, but he does seem to have established himself as the man who will carry the knuckleball flag forward, taking from R.A. Dickey the torch he took in his turn from Tim Wakefield.

But it's the offensive explosion that's made the biggest difference. The Red Sox are averaging 5.50 runs per game, most in the majors, and exactly the same as the 2015 Blue Jays. David Ortiz is having a farewell tour for the ages, and Mookie Betts - who's still just 23 years old - has put himself into the MVP conversation. Ortiz and Betts were both very good in 2015, if not quite this good, and middle infielders Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts have matched their fine 2015 seasons. Centre fielder Jackie Bradley has shown that his fine half-season a year ago indicated that he had indeed figured out how to hit at this level.

Everywhere else, it's been upgrades. Hanley Ramirez has been a far more productive hitter since returning to the infield, and quite a bit better than last year's first baseman (Mike Napoli.) Just about anyone would have been a major improvement over Pablo Sandoval - that's mostly been Travis Shaw this year, although we may get a look at heavily hyped prospect Yoan Moncada this weekend as well. Brock Holt and Chris Young have been a serviceable platoon in left field, and quite a bit better than Rusney Castillo, who got many of those ABs a year ago.

And then there's the utterly inexplicable. Catcher Sandy Leon, 27 years old, after hitting .238/.325/.330 over ten years in the minors (along with a .187/.258/.225 in four major league cups of coffee) is somehow hitting .350/.408/.533 - and stuff like that is just weird and frightening.

Team of destiny stuff.

Clearly, special Mojo is required.

  photo Bucky Dent Topps Card.jpg

Matchups? You bet:

Fri. - Porcello (19-3, 3.23) vs Estrada (8-7, 3.56)
Sat. - Rodriguez (2-6, 4.83) vs Happ  (17-4, 3.34)
Sun. - Buchholz (6-10, 4.99) vs Sanchez (13-2, 2.92)

Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em...
Red Sox at Blue Jays, 9-11 Sept. | 305 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 03:52 AM EDT (#331000) #
Porcello is having a Cy Young year. Rodriguez just missed throwing a no-hitter and Bucholtz is a guy the Jays just can't hit.

No pressure, but they almost need to win this series while the Red Sox can make back any ground they lose here when they team meet again in Boston.

Jonny German - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#331002) #
I see your arbitrary notes and raise you more arbitrary notes: Porcello has given up 11 runs in 19 innings pitched against the Jays this year, Rodriguez has been pounded for a 1.009 OPS by Blue Jay hitters, and both FIP and ERA have Buchholz at 5 runs/9.
BlueJayWay - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#331003) #
Buchholz's dominance pitching in Toronto is something I'll never understand.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#331004) #
The Rays' season in a nutshell- last night they hit 4 solo homers and had 12 hits.  They lost 5-4 to the Yankees on a solo homer with 2 outs in the ninth. 
Jonny German - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#331006) #
Buchholz's dominance pitching in Toronto is something I'll never understand.

It's who he is, he's a flake. Alternates great seasons with terrible ones, dominates some opponents and gets beat up by others with no real rhyme or reason - the Oakland A's and LA Angels are 2 teams not known for their offense that have had no trouble with Buchholz over the years.

The key to his success against the Jays has been getting the best of Bautista and Encarnacion. Here are his career numbers against the lineup he'll likely face on Sunday:
	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	
Travis	9	.444	.500	.556
Dldson	14	.214	.353	.357
Edwin	41	.195	.327	.341
JBats	61	.230	.300	.328
Martin	25	.280	.308	.760
Tulo	3	.333	.333	.333
Upton	29	.276	.344	.483
Snders	8	.250	.333	.250
Pillar	16	.375	.412	.438

Also perhaps notable: Goins has gone .391/.391/.522 in 23 AB vs Buchholz.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#331007) #
Shi Davidi has some interesting comments on rotation possibilities in the coming week.   In the same article, you can see the rationale for Gibbons' preference for veteran players.  I am pretty sure that we will see much more of Upton and Carrera than Pompey over the next few weeks. 
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#331008) #
Here's something I did not know.  The RC actually dampens production on fly balls compared with the average park this year, but it has been a strong hitter's park. 
Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#331009) #
I just realized I still think of Buchholz more or less the same way I think of Stroman - an up-and-comer, with a chance to be really good but maybe not quite there yet. And of course the guy is 32 years old, in his tenth season, been an All-Star twice.

Maybe because he's only managed to make as many as 20 starts in a season three times? I dunno.
Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#331010) #
I did like Bruce Arthur's piece in The Star this morning.

When you asked for meaningful baseball in September, you asked for the worry, for the torture, for the sinking feeling.

Yup, kids. This is what it's usually like and last year was the exception. As a rule, September baseball is non-stop Dread.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#331011) #
Non-stop dread?  That's kind of negative.  Dread, excitement, tension, elation and disappointment all in one untidy little ball.  It's only rock and roll but I like it.

Buchholz is a bit of a poster boy for fielding-independent metrics.  His ERA has bounced around like oil in a hot pan, but his xFIP has remained much more stable over the years with a high of 4.4 and a low of 3.3.  This year is different.  He has been terrible in the rotation and decent in the bullpen.  Opportunity knocks. 

uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#331012) #
I've never known quite how to quantify "recent" in baseball, but I'll try to include it here. Here's how the two teams compare, with full season wRC+/ERA- and then last 30 days (i.e. "recent") in brackets beside it.


3B Donaldson 157 (151) -- DH Ortiz 163 (183)
1B Encarnacion 138 (142)- RF Betts 135 (147)
DH Bautista 112 (111) ---- 2B Pedroia 125 (164)
RF Saunders 125 (89) ----- CF Bradley 120 (83)
2B Travis 107 (65) --------- SS Bogaerts 112 (75)
SS Tulowitzki 104 (116) -- 1B Ramirez 116 (161)
C Martin 103 (177) -------- C Leon 153 (143)
LF Upton 88 (100) --------- 3B Shaw 98 (80)
CF Pillar 80 (103) ---------- LF Holt 87 (90)

UT Smoak 92 (100) ------- UT Hernandez 110 (474)
OF Carrera 78 (-24) ------ OF Young 126 (146)
IF Barney 86 (165) ------- IF Hill 88 (12)
C Navarro 58 (54) -------- C Holaday 54 (-29)

UT Pompey -100 (-100) - UT Moncada 48 (48)
OF Ceciliani -5 (---) ----- OF Benintendi 122 (103)
IF Goins 40 (204) --------- IF Marrero -65 (-100)
C Thole 22 (-9) ----------- C Hanigan 20 (356)





SP1 Sanchez 68 (78) ----- Porcello 72 (56)
SP2 Stroman 105 (81) ---- Price 86 (41)
SP3 Happ 77 (107) ------- Pomeranz 71 (61)
SP4 Estrada 82 (168) ---- Wright 74 (181)
SP5 Dickey 106 (106) ---- Rodriguez 108 (49)
SP6 Liriano 129 (100) --- Buchholz 119 (52)


RP1 Osuna 55 (120) ------ Kimbrel 63 (0)
RP2 Biagini 56 (80) ----- Ziegler 57 (58)
RP3 Grilli 87 (107) ------- Uehara 98 (0)
RP4 Benoit 75 (0) ------- Ross 76 (42)
RP5 Cecil 105 (62) ------ Tazawa 101 (219)
RP6 Feldman 84 (48) ----- Abad 76 (125)
RP7 Liriano 208 (208) --- Barnes 97 (278)

RP8 Barnes 57 (0) ------- Kelly 30 (0)
RP9 Tepera 78 (35) ------ Hembree 53 (46)
RP10 Schultz 94 (312) --- Buchholz 80 (109)
RP11 Loup 172 (227) ----- Ramirez 146 (---)



There's been a lot of talk about the red sox offense this year but their recent surge has actually been all about dominant starting pitching, not so much about offense.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#331013) #
"I just realized I still think of Buchholz more or less the same way I think of Stroman - an up-and-comer, with a chance to be really good but maybe not quite there yet. And of course the guy is 32 years old, in his tenth season, been an All-Star twice."

And I've always thought the perfect Jays comparison for Buchholz was always one Brandon Morrow.

Tease you with dominant stretches but inevitably follow them up with either a baffling cold streak or some kind of "injury", but always enough to make you believe a full dominant season was on its way soon.

Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#331014) #
Morrow's a better real world comp, I've just been totally out to lunch. If you'd asked, I would have guessed Buchholz to be.. oh he must 27 years old by now. Not a clue!
James W - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#331015) #
I had a rant typed about Buchholz looking like a greasy cheater and trying to tie it into a comparison with Morrow. But it got eaten.

ANyway, my point was: never forget the time Buchholz had his non-pitching arm slathered with sunscreen, even though the roof at SkyDome was closed.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#331016) #
Buchholz isn't like Morrow in some ways.  Morrow had control issues, but could be utterly dominating. Buchholz doesn't have the control issues, but relies on command to keep hitters at bay.  That command comes and goes. 
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#331017) #
I've tried to come up with a system where I can compare two rosters via average WAR pace. It's a bit tricky when it comes to part time hitters, though.

Hitters = average of fwar and bwar per 650pa
Starters = average of fwar and ra9war per 32gs
Relievers = average of fwar and ra9war per 65ip

That's my usual take on it - but when comparing bench guys to full time guys it kinda falls apart. So since my RP pace is about 1/3 of a starter's workload, I decided to just divide the bench player's total by 3, so 1/3 of their actual total. This raises its own problems but it's good enough i think.

There's also the problem of a guy like Sandy Leon, who has had a bench player's workload but whose (unsustainable) totals are off the charts. My compromise is to give him full credit for the 650pa pace, but just selectively line him up alongside Martin in the comp. While this is artificial I feel better about it given that Martin has actually been as good or better than Leon since Leon was called up. And actually giving Leon credit for being the best player on either team, as his pace would indicate, is just silly so screw it.

Anyways, here's how the two teams line up based on this year's average WAR paces, mostly from best to worst, with a little bit of wiggling at the bottom of the list to matchup guys with their natural matchups:


3B Donaldson (30) 7.4 --- RF Betts (23) 7.6
SP1 Sanchez (23) 5.4 --- 2B Pedroia (32) 5.6
2B Travis (25) 4.3 --------- CF Bradley (26) 5.3
SP2 Happ (33) 4.3 --------- SP1 Porcello (27) 5.1
CF Pillar (27) 3.8 ----------- DH Ortiz (40) 4.8

SP3 Estrada (32) 3.8 ------ SP3 Pomeranz (27) 4.6
1B Encarnacion (33) 3.6 - SP4 Price (30) 4.6
SS Tulowitzki (31) 3.3 ----- SP2 Wright (30) 3.8
SP4 Stroman (25) 2.9 ----- SS Bogaerts (23) 3.5
LF Saunders (29) 2.7 ------ 3B Shaw (26) 3.1

C Martin (33) 2.6 ------------ C Leon (27) 8.2
RF Upton (31) 2.0 ----------- 1B Ramirez (32) 1.9
RP1 Osuna (21) 2.0 -------- RP1 Kimbrel (28) 1.9
RP2 Biagini (26) 1.3 -------- RP2 Ziegler (36) 1.6
SP5 Dickey (41) 1.0 -------- SP5 Rodriguez (23) 1.6

DH Bautista (35) 1.0 -------- LF Holt (29) 0.9
IF Barney (30) 1.3 ----------- OF Young (32) 0.9
RP3 Benoit (38) 0.9 --------- RP3 Abad (30) 1.0
RP4 Feldman (33) 0.8 ------ RP4 Ross (27) 1.0
RP5 Grilli (39) 0.7 ----------- RP5 Uehara (41) 0.5

RP6 Tepera (28) 0.3 -------- RP6 Barnes (26) 0.3
RP7 Cecil (30) 0.2 ---------- RP7 Tazawa (30) 0.2
OF Carrera (29) 0.1 --------- IF Hill (34) 0.6
UT Smoak (29) 0.0 ---------- UT Hernandez (23) -0.7
BC Navarro (32) -0.3 -------- BC Holaday (28) 0.5

Extras

SP6 Liriano (32) -0.5 ------- SP6 Buchholz (31) 0.2
RP8 Liriano (32) -1.6 ------- RP8 Buchholz (31) 0.6
RP9 Barnes (26) 1.8 ------- RP9 Kelly (28) 2.0
RP10 Schultz (30) 0.0 ----- RP10 Hembree (27) 0.6

UT Pompey (23) 0.0 ------- UT Moncada (21) 0.0
OF Ceciliani (26) -3.5 ----- OF Benintendi (21) 4.0*
IF Goins (28) -0.8 ----------- IF Marrero (26) -4.3
BC Thole (29) -1.2 ---------- BC Hanigan (36) -1.0

(* = injured)
Dave Till - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#331018) #

When you asked for meaningful baseball in September, you asked for the worry, for the torture, for the sinking feeling.

Yup, kids. This is what it's usually like and last year was the exception. As a rule, September baseball is non-stop Dread.

This, exactly. When September baseball is not meaningless, it can be painful. I still remember 1987.

I find, though, that I am philosophical about it. If the Jays can't beat the Red Sox at home, they won't advance far in the postseason even if they get there.

John Northey - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#331019) #
So true. 1985 was gut check every game as it felt like the Yankees were destined to catch the Jays at the last minute right up until George Bell caught the final out in the 2nd last game of the season. 1987 I kept thinking the Jays will win this - just a bump in the road but then the injuries started to happen, Ernie Whitt, Tony Fernandez and then that horrible final game, the only game between the two teams that the team scoring first didn't lose. Argh.

1989 was tight but the Jays came from so far behind that it was pure fun. 1992 and 1993 felt like playoffs were inevitable for some reason. 2015 was a lot like that, no pressure until playoffs hit. So for this generation of fans welcome to what the mid-80's felt like. Every choice by the manager and/or players feel like this could be the one mistake that kills the season, every play feels important, every pitch matters. Lots of fun and frustration. A whole month of what October was like.
Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#331020) #
I don't know why, but everyone always forgets 1990. Ahead by 1.5 games with a week left on the schedule, the Jays lost six of their last eight and finished 2 games behind Boston.

That was the year the Jays went 3-10 head-to-head with the Red Sox.
electric carrot - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#331021) #
Feeling good about this series.  Boston's going down!


Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#331022) #
I don't know why, but everyone always forgets 1990. Ahead by 1.5 games with a week left on the schedule, the Jays lost six of their last eight and finished 2 games behind Boston.
That was the year the Jays went 3-10 head-to-head with the Red Sox.

Wasn't that the year the Boston journalist labelled them "the Blow Jays"?  They should have done another 70 years in World Series championship purgatory for that gratuitous insult. 
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#331023) #
Apologies for all the numbers, but it's how I'm distracting myself from the nervousness.

Variations on "hotness" in our lineup:

wRC+

Last 7 days:

En'cion 138 (27pa)
Pillar 117 (24pa)
Tulo 106 (20pa)
Martin 91 (21pa)
Travis 90 (25pa)
Upton 82 (17pa)
Donaldson 76 (27pa)
Bautista 63 (29pa)
Saunders -16 (17pa)

Carrera 114 (2pa)
Navarro 7 (12pa)
Smoak -27 (5pa)
Barney -100 (2pa)
Thole -100 (2pa)
Pompey -100 (1pa)


Last 14 days

Donaldson 209 (53pa)
Pillar 132 (43pa)
Saunders 127 (28pa)
Bautista 117 (57pa)
Martin 110 (42pa)
En'cion 101 (53pa)
Tulo 98 (45pa)
Travis 66 (43pa)
Upton 64 (38pa)

Barney 305 (8pa)
Smoak 138 (14pa)
Navarro 50 (16pa)
Thole 23 (10pa)
Carrera -45 (7pa)
Pompey -100 (1pa)


Last 30 days

Martin 177 (94pa)
Donaldson 151 (104pa)
En'cion 142 (111pa)
Tulo 116 (94pa)
Bautista 111 (62pa)
Pillar 103 (55pa)
Upton 100 (88pa)
Saunders 89 (72pa)
Travis 65 (89pa)

Goins 204 (11pa)
Barney 165 (37pa)
Smoak 100 (35pa)
Navarro 54 (47pa)
Ceciliani 26 (22pa)
Thole -9 (17pa)
Carrera -24 (37pa)
Pompey -100 (1pa)


Since All-Star Break

Martin 149 (164pa)
En'cion 137 (212pa)
Donaldson 136 (204pa)
Travis 118 (180pa)
Tulo 108 (170pa)
Bautista 98 (131pa)
Saunders 81 (156pa)
Pillar 71 (132pa)
Upton 50 (149pa)

Goins 118 (15pa)
Smoak 83 (80pa)
Barney 58 (88pa)
Navarro 48 (119pa)
Thole 34 (44pa)
Ceciliani 9 (25pa)
Carrera -29 (62pa)
Pompey -100 (1pa)



So which of our hitters is hot, and which are cold?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#331024) #
2B Pedroia
SS Bogaerts
DH Ortiz
RF Betts
1B Ramirez
3B Shaw
C Leon
CF Bradley
LF Holt
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#331025) #
2B Travis
3B Donaldson
1B Encarnacion
DH Bautista
SS Tulowitzki
C Navarro
RF Saunders
LF Upton
CF Pillar
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#331026) #
Travis 4
Donaldson 5
Encarnacion 3
Bautista 0
Tulowitzki 6
Navarro 2
Saunders 9
Upton 7
Pillar 8

Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#331027) #
I was checking Jose Bautista's HR profile on Hit Tracker for 2016, compared with previous years.  They don't look at all like the same hitter.  Average home run distance is off 15 to 20 feet, with corresponding loss in speed off the bat.  Lower body injuries can do that. 
Michael - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#331028) #
I usually think of OF being the best hitters (with 1B and DH). But our OF hits 7-9. Obviously this could be because our OF isn't that good, or because our non-OF is so good, or because of odd lineup order, or all of the above. I hope Martin is ok, I think he'd be playing if healthy.
Dave Till - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#331029) #

I don't know why, but everyone always forgets 1990. Ahead by 1.5 games with a week left on the schedule, the Jays lost six of their last eight and finished 2 games behind Boston.

I was actually in Baltimore for the last game of the season that year! The Jays went into the game down one; a Jays win and a Sox loss meant a playoff. Both the Jays' last game and Boston's last game were close. The Sox game finished first, and the scoreboard at Memorial Stadium showed happy Red Sox celebrating. The Orioles fans started celebrating too, as they didn't like the Jays because of 1989.

When the Jays knew that they had lost, Henke was on the mound, and it was tied in the bottom of the ninth. He served up a game-ending cookie to Mickey Tettleton, because there was no need to do otherwise.

The only good thing about the game was that, while the Orioles fans were celebrating, I zipped up the stairs and out the exit, and beat all of the post-game traffic.

The border crossing back into Canada also was fun:
"How long have you been out of the country?"
"Three days."
"Where were you?"
"Baltimore."
"Did you see the Jays play?"
"Yep."
"Drive on through."

Dave Till - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#331030) #
And this reminds me of one of my favourite pieces of baseball trivia. Two of the most famous folds in baseball history were the 1964 Phillies (up 6.5 with 12 to play) and the 1987 Blue Jays (up 3.5 with 7 to play). These two teams both had Al Widmar as their pitching coach.
John Northey - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#331031) #
Funny - don't have many memories of the 1990 team. mainly how Cito was platooning Hill and Ducey in September while Bell DH'ed and Olerud was benched despite having a decent rookie season and hitting 258/425/355 in Sept/Oct - seemed like Cito hated high OBP guys back then. No matter what it seemed like Bell was in the lineup and really shouldn't have been as he was flopping. Jays led on September 26th by 1/2 a game and went 2-4 the rest of the way. Losing 2 of 3 to Boston that week is what ended it. Funny, you'd think it would've stood out more at the time. The first loss was via Ward giving up a run, then Henke giving up the tying and winning runs in the 9th. 3 unearned runs thanks to errors by Gruber & Fernandez two guys who normally were very reliable. The next game they were losing from early on but scored 5 off Dennis Lamp to give themselves a shot but Ward gave up 2 more runs which was the difference.

Weird for the Jays of that era to lose 2 games in a row thanks to bad games by Ward & Henke who always seemed automatic back then. The next loss was again Ward giving up a run but not the difference (6-3 loss). The final loss was in the final game - a walkoff where Henke gave up a home run to Mickey Tettleton. Weird way that season ended with the big 2 in the pen being unable to pitch effectively.
#2JBrumfield - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#331032) #
I don't know why, but everyone always forgets 1990.

I'm still trying to. Thanks for that reminder! ;D

Meantime, in the "news but not really news" department, Mark Shapiro says all of the Jays pending free agents will likely hit the market.
Dave Till - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#331033) #

Funny - don't have many memories of the 1990 team. mainly how Cito was platooning Hill and Ducey in September while Bell DH'ed and Olerud was benched despite having a decent rookie season

Olerud started very slowly that year - he was batting .209 on April 29 (though with a reasonable .333 OBP). (I love Baseball Reference.)

I once was researching something in 1990 newspaper microfiche loops, and one of the common themes that some of the crankier sportswriters were spouting at the time was that Olerud needed to spend time in the minors because that's what Real Baseball Players do. They ride the buses, change in crappy minor league locker rooms, and etcetera. They aren't immediately handed a free ticket to the majors, grumble grumble. (These were the same writers who spent most of their free time complaining about George Bell.)

I think there was one writer who suggested that Olerud should be sent down in favour of Ed Sprague, but my memory may be playing tricks on me.

Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#331035) #
George Bell is what I remember best about 1990. He hit like the mighty hero of old for the first half of the season. But around the beginning of August he stopped hitting HRs, and soon afterwards stopped hitting altogether. It turned out there was something wrong with his eye, although Bell didn't take himself out of the lineup until the middle of an at bat against Roger Clemens, when the true peril of his situation suddenly became clear to him. He got his eyes checked, they discovered the problem, and sat him down. When he got back in the lineup, he could only DH for a couple of weeks.

1990 was Bell's walk year, and the city was kind of tired of him by then. So was the team, and there were young outfielders in view. Junior Felix was already in the lineup, Rob Ducey had one of his occasional Good Spells filling in for Bell that September, and Glenallen Hill and Mark Whiten were on their way. But for the moment the team was stuck with Mookie Wilson in centre field. The hero of the 1989 division chase by now had a huge fork sticking out his back.
Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#331036) #
And the Kenny Williams play!
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#331038) #
I lasted 8 seconds into Hazel Mae's interview with David Ortiz before I went to iTunes and bought citizenfour, although I saw it in the theatre. Something about truth vs. fiction.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#331039) #
bad fielding costs us the first run. and estrada over 30 pitches in the first.

we could have started better.
Four Seamer - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#331040) #

Often times this year it seems as if the Jays have had a pitcher on the ropes early, let him wriggle off with limited damage done, and then proceed to be shut down the balance of the game; hopefully this will be the reverse of that scenario.

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#331041) #
Apparently they had Travis working on fielding before the game. Hopefully they'll add in relay throws.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#331042) #
Have to think Estrada is hurt at this point.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#331043) #
did they turn the tv strikezone off to save the ump?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#331044) #
jays are real nervous. that's 4 poor defensive plays already. 2 misplayed balls to the OF, and 2 awful throws to the plate.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#331045) #
Yeah defense is another thing that has really let down lately.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#331046) #
christ. why is this guy in the lineup again?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#331047) #
four misplayed balls in the OF, two awful throws to the plate, and a bobbled clean pickoff.

that's what we call choking.
CeeBee - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#331048) #
Good thing hockey starts early this year. Local Jr B season opener tonight. Got season tickets as it's the only game in town and tv viewing sucks tonight.
CeeBee - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#331049) #
Hey, if I diss the BJ's do you think they'll come back?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#331050) #
they are showing some nuts now. phew.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#331051) #
Shame Donaldson and EE finished the inning that way.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#331052) #
huuuuuuuuge inning for danny Barnes here. he might even win a spot on the playoff roster right here if he comes through.
Magpie - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#331053) #
So... who expected to miss Jose Bautista's outfield play?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#331054) #
get upton the hell out of there.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#331055) #
another run on the defense. my lord.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#331056) #
I agree time to get Upton out of there. No room right now to have players whose head isn't in the game. Really bad time to come up with fielding yips. Saunders should likely DH and Jose field if Upton is going to melt under pressure like this.I don't think Jose is good but he might have best shot at being reliably mediocre.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#331057) #
The defense has been embarrassing in this game.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#331059) #
Funny thing was Upton has good numbers in the corners before this game. Seems a classic case of a guy trying too hard/thinking too much. Then again we likely would have won some of these last games if Josh wasn't in a 0/21 streak. Kinda hard to win when the best bat isn't producing.
Four Seamer - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#331060) #
Brutal effort there from Travis. The team looks pretty cooked at the moment.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#331061) #
hopefully that's it for schultz this season. the guy is not good.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#331062) #
The Red Sox are the better team, at least offensively. They are going to be scary good for a long time with the amount of young difference making talent on that roster. With Price/Porcello/Pomeranz, they have enough SP to get by with that offense behind them. If the Jays don't win the next two games, they could be burying themselves this weekend.

There's still time to turn things around, but this really feels like a collapse. The team can't hit anymore, they can't field tonight, they can't get the clutch hits they need, etc. It's a really bad stretch at the absolute wrong time.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#331063) #
oh, that was feldman. another ace deadline pickup.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#331064) #
"With Price/Porcello"

who make the same $$ as happ/estrada/dickey/liriano.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#331065) #
"Upton and Feldman and Liriano cost the Jays the pennant." - uglyone in about 2 weeks.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#331066) #
Brutal effort there from Travis. The team looks pretty cooked at the moment.

There's obviously going to be a lot of replacement of older players in the offseason, but I wouldn't be surprised or unhappy to see a defensive upgrade there as well. He's stuck out the last couple of months. The definition of 'optimism' is bringing in the infield in a 9-2 blowout.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#331067) #
"AA screwed the team by building a contender with lots of elite young talent" - SK

you should be super excited by the imminent rebuild. what can we get in a donaldson trade this offseason i wonder? SO MANY PROSPECTS!
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#331069) #
Yes ugly, the posters here who said the Jays had an aging team with a one year window were clearly way off base. Especially now. AA set this team up for decades, and I'm sure you can manipulate the numbers to prove it. Unfortunately, guys like Upton and Feldman (and anyone else who was acquired by Atkins) ruined it for everyone. We will just ignore that 95% of the damn roster is AA's responsibility for the sake of your narrative.

I think I will follow CbDC's advise and not feed the troll anymore.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#331070) #
yeah, that crap roster hasn't been in a fricken playoff spot all year long.

good call.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#331071) #
I haven't watched all the games, and he still grades out well defensively based on the metrics (DRS UZR, etc), but yes Travis is making a ton of errors recently. Considering how good he is all around, you live with the errors, but it is something he has to work on.
snider - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#331072) #
So anyway...

Can a slow base runner just run into a fielder catching a pop fly and have the batter take his place on interference? That seems like a weird rule.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#331073) #
That seems like a weird rule.

It sure seemed weird. It would seem more sensible that they would both be out.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#331074) #
The defensive gaffes and relief failures sure do hide the fact that once again offense didn't show up, especially the heart of the lineup. They weren't going to beat Boston scoring two runs. Just gives a convenient narrative for uo again to hide the flaws of the aging core of this team,
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#331075) #
Not that I care about the well being of the Red Sox, but why the heck is Porcello throwing 130 pitches in a blowout?
eudaimon - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#331076) #
Hopefully the team can right itself in time. I'm confident that it's a good one, though I wonder now if "Estrada the Ace" and "Happ the Ace" were simply mirages. They've certainly sucked recently and are looking more like #3 starters. The difference to me seems to be that unlike early in the year when our starting pitching was awesome and winning us games we shouldn't have had a chance in, we're now losing those games because our pitching has sucked. We probably shouldn't have counted on them to post ERAs in the very low 3s all year.

I'm thinking that the front office should have probably seen that coming and acquired an extra quality piece instead of mediocrities like Liriano (the worst pitcher in the NL when he was traded to us) and Upton (who has been useless more often than not in the past years).

The new front office seems competent enough. But they do seem to have a hoarder mentality when it comes to prospects, and seem likely to nickle and dime and not take chances when it comes to deadline deals. One things about AA is that he certainly wasn't afraid to pay for something he needed. Given the team's play right now, I'm thinking we needed more than a few mediocrities if we want to go on a deep playoff run.

Stll, we're not out of it yet! Maybe the offense can get hot yet. And maybe Travis can figure out how to make basic plays again. I'm still confident that he's a good fielder, but he's having a hell of a rough stretch right now.

SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#331077) #
Nevermind. Gameday had Porcello pitching this inning, but it was apparently Ziegler.

That makes more sense.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#331078) #
Well since they're being paid like number four starters that's pretty good. I think Happ has been a bit unlucky but I think Estrada is injured. His velocity had been down.

Once again criticism of the FO without coming up with any alternatives. Who were these amazing SP or OF that were available at the trade deadline? Maybe the pair Oakland traded to LA, but they did say they were in that and got outbid. They couldn't trade for Pomeranz since the guy Boston traded was better than any of our prospects. So once again who are these OF or SP that were available out there that would improve the team? This wasn't the 2015 deadline. Also maybe that's changed after tonight but coming into it the Jays starters still led the AL in most catagories.

The one thing I would have liked is another relief option, but that's pretty minimal considering how Benoit and Grilli have done so far. The players out there who could have filled holes in the starting lineup just don't exist or weren't made available.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#331079) #
Maybe we can tire them out running the bases?
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#331080) #
yep, Kasi, there were no good players in the world the FO could possibly have added to the team this year. absolutely impossible. i'm guessing there will be none next year either.

but they were laser focused on getting prospects like mcguire and ramirez who we know are more valuable thus harder to get than expensive vets. can't wait for those guys to lead us to a title.

so weird, too, that that stacked boston team had to go out and trade for impact players just to pass our crappy old roster.
BlueJayWay - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#331081) #
The playoff cushion is down to one game.
92-93 - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#331082) #
From the 2016 MLB rulebook, definition of terms for Infield Fly:

"If interference is called during an Infield Fly, the ball remains alive until it is determined whether the ball is fair or foul. If fair, both the runner who interfered with the fielder and the batter are out. If foul, even if caught, the runner is out and the batter returns to bat."
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#331083) #
Once again name some names. Criticism without alternatives is pointless. Yes the Sox got Pomeranz. Guess what, they traded a guy who would have been our number one prospect on top of other guys to get him. We couldn't do that deal because we lack those prospects. And they got some relievers yes, but talk to Sox fans about how up and down Abad and Zeigler have been. Benoit has outperformed them.

Funny enough our former managers team picked up our shipping goat from the first half in Chavez and he has pitched 20 innings to a 3.5 FIP. Shocking I guess when he's used right,

Just look at who the starters and OF who were moved at the deadline. They were almost all marginal moves. There wasn't impact players out there to be had.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#331084) #
has any contender in baseball had less production from the deadline than us?
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#331085) #
I think the last thread had a post that ours and the Rangers (the big deadline winners) had the same war as our additions.

Edit to my last post. Grili + Benoit > Ziegler + Abad.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#331086) #
and by "use Chavez properly" you mean "use strictly in lowest leverage mop up duty and still see him post a horrible xfip".
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#331087) #
Lucroy has been arguably the rangers best player since the deadline, beltran one of their better hitters as well. don't be silly.
scottt - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#331088) #
Tomorrow would be the perfect time for the wind to turn.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#331089) #
Not panicking yet.

But if we lose the next 2 favorable pitching matchups, I might.
Alex Obal - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#331091) #
Rick Porcello is a 20-game winner. Next up: a John Gibbons team pulls itself out of a season-ending tailspin.
BlueJayWay - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#331092) #
If they lose the next two games I think that's it for the division. They'd be 4 games back and running out of time. At that point I would shift attention to the wildcard.
Kasi - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#331093) #
From the last thread (stats taken on Thursday). Shocking I know but you asked for a team with similar WAR since the deadline. Splashy does not always equal good. A team that has lower is even easier to find. The Orioles who got Miley who has been way worse than Liriano. So no uo I'm sure you can find plenty of teams in contention who died rather poorly at the deadline.

"Also, the Jays trade deadline pick-ups have combined for a 1.1 WAR (Upton, Benoit, Feldman, and Liriano). The Rangers trade deadline pick-ups have also combined for a 1.1 WAR (Lucroy, Beltran, Jeffress, Alvarez, Harrell). The latter has largely been because of Lucroy. "
John Northey - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#331094) #
No question in my mind the killer has been regulars playing 'meh' or worse.

2nd half stats...
Jose Bautista: 225/328/414
Justin Smoak: 205/275/425
Michael Saunders: 193/295/400
Pillar: 258/303/339
Upton: 214/226/342 (playing regularly)

That kills a team. The entire OF and 4th OF are hitting poorly as is the stiff at 1B. Martin, Encarnacion, and Donaldson have high 800/900 OPS+'s while Travis is in the 800's as well with Tulo just under. That is what we needed to see from Bautista and Saunders to have a solid offense especially since Pillar and Smoak are defense first players.

For pitching we see 5+ ERA's out of Feldman, Dickey (both over 6), Estrada. That kills the team when 2 starters are flopping. Stroman and Liriano haven't exactly been wonderful either. Mix in Happ having a 5.91 ERA in his last 4 starts and things get messy.

Still, if the Jays win the next 2 games they are back in first place. A far better situation than we've seen in all but one year since 1993.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#331095) #
The Jays not only lacked high level prospects to trade, but the market was also not littered with high end talent aside from Lucroy (who wasn't going to waive his NTC to DH in Toronto behind Martin), and the NYY relievers who Cashman was able to trade for prospect capital far greater than the Jays could afford to give up.

There seems to be this weird obsession with trade deadline moves by some Jays fans who seem to equate big mid-season moves (Cone, Henderson, Price/Tulo) as the only way to operate at the deadline. The Jays did not have many positions that needed to be filled other than 1B (Smoak) or outfield if they decided to move Bautista/Saunders to DH periodically. They filled that spot. Upton was a 1.5 WAR player at the time of the trade, and FG projected a WAR of about 0.8 the rest of the way, IIRC. He probably won't reach that, but it was a more than reasonable move at the time, especially with the salary being picked up by the Padres, and the year of control for next season. You're not going to add 5 wins at the deadline every year like Price/Tulo/Revere did.

The Jays 2016 roster had enough talent to win. They needed depth around them to put them over the top. Prior to this recent stretch, they were nearly 20 games over .500 and first place. Seven games later, they are where they are. That's not because of the lack of stars acquired at the deadline.

This is an older team with a one year window. That's just the reality of it. They are still a good team, but in 2016, there are a lot more good teams than there were in 2015, especially in the East. It is what it is, but at the end of the day, the success or failure of this team is on the star players. That's been the case all season and will be regardless of what happens the rest of the way. Getting giddy every time Melvin Upton messes up as if to absolve the main players on this team of any blame is ridiculous.
uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#331096) #
Lucroy 108pa, .959ops
Benoit 16.1ip, 0.00era

Beltran 138pa, .798ops
Upton 138pa, .603ops

Jeffress/Harrell/ALvarez: 34.1ip, 5.93era
Liriano/Feldman: 38.0ip, 5.92era

you're counting a whole lot on a tiny defense sample to say those are comparable performances between Upton and beltran. and upton's apparent great D was on full display tonight.

and an elite hitting C is probably a bit of a bigger impact than a middle reliever.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#331097) #
I was at the game- sympathy cards not required.  The team defence was indeed terrible, but the ones who stuck out for me were Saunders and Navarro.  Saunders was extremely tentative on a couple of balls early in the game that really set the tone, and Navarro put in a desultory effort blocking pitches.  He could easily have been charged with 5 passed balls.  Upton's flub didn't bother me- he was just rushing to get into position to make a throw to the plate.  Travis' flub was similar- he was thinking about making a play on Ortiz at third base. 

In the first inning, it looked to me like Estrada's back was barking from the way he was stretching between pitches.  They had Barnes warming.  In the second, Estrada got into more trouble and I was puzzled that they didn't get Barnes up.  When he got out of the inning, Estrada walked off the mound very slowly.  I would have been pleased had they brought in Barnes for 2 or 3 beginning in the 3rd inning, and then Biagini for 2 after that. 

I sure hope Martin is back tomorrow.



uglyone - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#331098) #
"The Jays 2016 roster had enough talent to win. They needed depth around them to put them over the top. Prior to this recent stretch, they were nearly 20 games over .500 and first place. Seven games later, they are where they are. That's not because of the lack of stars acquired at the deadline. "

1."enough talent to win" is a meaningless statement
2.the depth has stunk.
3.weird coincidence how the competition got better at the deadline, while we got worse, and they've gained ground since.
Mike Green - Friday, September 09 2016 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#331099) #
I see that John Lott on twitter had the same impression about Estrada's back early in the game. At this point, you've got to know that he is a gutty pitcher- one of the corollaries of that is to not take his word that he's feeling fine. 
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 05:58 AM EDT (#331100) #
Besides the struggles of the previously mentioned players, Josh Donaldson has been cold as ice lately. I don't know, there just seems to be a bad vibe with the the team since they lost 2 of 3 to the Angels. They did sweep Minnesota after that, but every game was high-scoring with the Twins pitchers just being a little worse than the Jays. Since then it seems like nothing has gone right.A well-pitched game will be undone by hitters not getting a key hit with runners on base or the bullpen will cough up the lead. The defence has been spotty at times before last nights debacle. It's not too late but the next 2 games are crucial. If the Jays can get some positive momentum and pull things together then they can still win the division.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#331101) #
Three positive things from last night. Brett Cecil looked good with his fastball up to 94 and well-controlled and the curve breaking sharply. Devon Travis' last at-bat (down 10 with 2 outs in the ninth) was a model on how to do it- leave it all on the field. Last but not least, the scene on King Street with the road closed for TIFF celebrations made the walk back to the subway a highlight- the pianist playing the blues captured the mood of Jay fans perfectly.
Kasi - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#331102) #
For someone who posts stats all the time you're awfully quick to discount them when they don't suit your narrative. You asked if the Jays have by far the worst additions from the deadline of contenders. A very quick search shows they don't. Case closed.
Kasi - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#331103) #
SK also has a good point in that the Jays have established starters at near every position so all they could fill starter wise was DH/4th OF to move one of Jose/Saunders in. They got one of the better 4th OF available in Upton.
Kasi - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#331104) #
Giants are another team who likely did worse at the deadline than the Jays.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#331105) #
there's no discounting. the rangers pickups have earned double the war, and the only reason it's even that close is due to the least reliable part of war - tiny sample defense.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#331106) #
players only meeting this morn. that always works.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#331108) #
Martin back in. For better or worse, he's gonna gut it out.
King Ryan - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#331109) #
I hope we can continue to hear nothing interesting about the PO meeting 5 times per inning for the whole game.
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#331110) #
Yeah, the PO meeting and Hanley Ramirez's defensive wizardry.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#331111) #
Tabler suggested that Hanley step out of the box and wait for the roof shadow to move out of the way.
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#331112) #
Brain fart by Smoak.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#331113) #
I don't know if I've ever seen that before.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#331114) #
Donaldson and Encarnacion were both trying too hard to send one to the moon.  Enough of that, gentlemen.
dan gordon - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#331115) #
Fortunately, Smoak's mistake didn't cost them a run. I'm sure he realizes you have to tag the runner first, because when you step on the bag, you take the force off, but in the heat of the moment he messed up. Amazingly, even the ump and the announcers called it a double play initially.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#331116) #
yep, Donaldson/EE are pressing/slumping bad. They've carried us all year so it's time for everyone else to step up.

Travis getting past that finger injury seems to be helping in a big way.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#331117) #
they've really let erod off the hook. disappointing after a good start, especially with all the high meatballs he's been offering up.

please let the bullpen sew this one up cleanly.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#331118) #
here's that September dread....
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#331119) #
Two strikes, take it to right field.  Simple approach against the Jays with Saunders or Bautista out there. 
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#331120) #
I am guessing that the lads at SoSH are barking over leaving Chris Young in.
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#331121) #
Such is the defensive decline of Bautista that two fairly routine plays are made to look worthy of a highlight reel.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#331122) #
Benoit cojones.

Joey at least showing some good focus there, even if they weren't overtough plays.
scottt - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#331123) #
Not a fan of sending Happ back there trying to get to 100 pitches when the 7-8-9 guys are fully rested.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#331124) #
Grilli or Biagini (or Osuna?) against the top of the order in the 8th?
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#331125) #
I like Biagini more than Grilli, but I am pretty sure that it will be Grilli.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#331126) #
Barnes is exactly the kind of pitcher that smoak shouldn't be whiffing against.
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#331127) #
Time for JD to break out of his slump. Even a SF would do.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#331128) #
Travis either embracing or having random variation normalize in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career.

either way him taking ownership of that leadoff spot for real would be a huge boost to the lineup.
Four Seamer - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#331129) #
Another couple of great and timely performances from Donaldson and Encarnacion today. Thank goodness at least for Melvin Upton, right uglyone?
King Ryan - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#331130) #
Score early, blow chances to add insurance runs ....
BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#331131) #
deja vu
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#331132) #
Upton AND Benoit, Fourseamer! deadline pickuos extraordinaire!
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#331133) #
bring in osuna for betts?
Four Seamer - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#331134) #
Tulowitzki really earning his pay today too.
Magpie - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#331135) #
two fairly routine plays are made to look worthy of a highlight reel.

Yeah, but I don't think Saunders makes either one of them.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#331136) #
The play against the wall did not require a jump.  It would have been a can of corn for Aaron Judge.

Bautista and Saunders are about even in right-field. 

Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#331137) #
Let's make this as difficult as possible.
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#331138) #
nice win.

now on to the next biggest game of the year tomorrow.

blow them out tommorrow with our ace on the mound and everything is ok again.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#331139) #
Jays lose the blowout game and win the one run game. Bizarro world up in here.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#331140) #
Had 'em all the way.
Four Seamer - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#331141) #
I'll take it. Let's go get 'em tomorrow.
scottt - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#331142) #
It's baffling how they can't cash in those easy runs and the last run of the inning always seems to be that deep flyball that couldn't be hit with less than 2 outs.

Great performance by the rested 7-8-9 guys.

As I said, Porcello is having a Cy Young year and was going to be hard to beat.
Rodriguez was coming off a near no-hitter and only gave up 4 hits. If not for Upton this is another loss.
Now, there's not logical reason they can't hit the crap out of Bucholtz tomorrow.

Magpie - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#331143) #
Toronto now 16-23 in one-run games, the Red Sox are 16-21 (this was their sixth straight one-run loss.)
uglyone - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#331144) #
"Now, there's not logical reason they can't hit the crap out of Bucholtz tomorrow. "

well, unfortunately, good Clay has shown up since he was reinserted into the rotation:

4gs, 5.9ip/gs, 2.31era, 2.98fip

and the only one he didn't go 6 and the only one he allowed more than 1 run was his first game back starting after a 2 month bullpen hiatus.

and oh yeah he always has our number, too.

but still, we better crush him anyways.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#331145) #
Now, there's not logical reason they can't hit the crap out of Bucholtz tomorrow.

Well, that's always been true, and yet they never do. I'm not sure if you're aware but Buchholz pitches like Cy Young x Walter Johnson + Roger Clemens in skydome. He is literally the best pitcher in the universe pitching off that mound.
Kasi - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#331146) #
2-6 better start hitting better. Travis is still doing well but the middle of the lineup is a void right now. Martin is injured, not sure about the others. (JD is probably still nursing his jammed thumb)
King Ryan - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#331147) #
Donaldson now 0-for his last 20.

As far as I can tell, it is the second longest 0-for slump of his career. He went 0-29 at one point in 2014.
SK in NJ - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#331148) #
This is one of those games where the result is great but the issues with the team still existed. The offense was saved by the pitching again. I'll take the win, but the middle of the order bats really need to produce for this team to win consistently in the next 3 weeks. You can't expect Sanchez tomorrow to hold the Red Sox to anywhere from 0-2 runs in order to have a chance to win the game. The offense putting up a big spot tomorrow would be huge.
China fan - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#331150) #
After the recent frustrating losses, I feel that the Batters Box regulars must have called a closed-door meeting and pledged to avoid negativity and to remain accurate and constructive and mature in their comments. Kudos to everyone here  The meeting must have been successful.  The debate here in recent days has been led by evidence and empiricism, rather than insults and outrage.  I sense that all of our commentators must have agreed to engage each other with perspective and balance, while refraining from wildly attacking the Blue Jays players and managers and executives. As a result, I think we'll all survive the recent losing streak and the tumble from first place, and we have a chance to recover strongly in time for the playoffs, when the debate will again be at a high level of eloquent data-driven commentary.
King Ryan - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#331151) #
Clay Buchholz has a 2.18 career ERA at Rogers Centre (103 IP) AND a 1.87 ERA in Tropicana (77.)

Otherwise on the road he's at 4.63
Mike Green - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#331152) #
Stacy May Fowles has a well-written review of Bob Levin's new book Away Game in today's Globe.  I will have to check out the book.

On a somewhat different topic, Russell Martin's return to the lineup seemed to make a huge difference to me.  He's changed his walk-up music to Courage- it's a nice way of honouring Gord Downie and maybe finding some inspiration. 
SK in NJ - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#331153) #
Hutchison's first start with the Pirates: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

I still expect Searage to turn him into a good starter eventually.
Chuck - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#331154) #
I still expect Searage to turn him into a good starter eventually.

Check out Ivan Nova. He's this year's JA Happ.

Magpie - Saturday, September 10 2016 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#331155) #
The play against the wall did not require a jump.

True, and the Sox fan were making a good deal of fun of Bautista for the jump. There was much mockery. What happens, of course, is when you move diagonally along the warning track for a number of steps you can't be sure after a while if the wall is two steps away or right there. So rather than take what might be one step too many and bump into the wall, you jump instead. You look silly, but you make the play.
cybercavalier - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#331156) #
And then there's the utterly inexplicable. Catcher Sandy Leon, 27 years old, after hitting .238/.325/.330 over ten years in the minors (along with a .187/.258/.225 in four major league cups of coffee) is somehow hitting .350/.408/.533 - and stuff like that is just weird and frightening.
There's also the problem of a guy like Sandy Leon, who has had a bench player's workload but whose (unsustainable) totals are off the charts. My compromise is to give him full credit for the 650pa pace, but just selectively line him up alongside Martin in the comp. While this is artificial I feel better about it given that Martin has actually been as good or better than Leon since Leon was called up. And actually giving Leon credit for being the best player on either team, as his pace would indicate, is just silly so screw it.

Therefore, does the case of Sandy Leon indicate that a relatively minor league veteran catcher can far exceed expectation as a backup catcher in the majors ? If so, having a rotating door of minor league veteran catchersin Double-A and Triple-A who do not need more plate appearance in the minors for improving performance except rehabilitation is a good insurance to start each MLB season ?  and put catchers to remaining empty spots of the 40-men roster ? If so, the Jays had Wilkin Castillo, R. Lavarnway.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#331157) #
If only Sandy Leon's sudden late emergence as one of the greatest hitting catchers ever was inexplicable.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#331158) #
Maybe the main reason for his exceptional season is his .435 BABIP? (Occam's Razor.)
John Northey - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#331159) #
Checking Sandy Leon's 351/408/550 147 OPS+ season the only Jays comparison I could come up with was Greg Myers who came back to the Jays in 2003 and went from a lifetime line of 250/307/384 82 OPS+ to a fantastic 307/374/502 125 OPS+ line in 121 games 369 PA. He would have just 33 PA left after that though. Weird one year wonder there at age 37. He only once before was over 100 for OPS+ (2 years earlier at 101 in 58 games)
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#331160) #
Leon just seems to be this years Colabello. I doubt they expect him
to keep this up going forward, since the babip is unsustainable.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#331161) #
Also, Leon, who turned 27 in March, is right around the age where you might expect a breakout season (if a BABIP-fuelled one).
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#331162) #
Buchholz has allowed 2 homeruns in 103 ip in skydome. Voodoo.

By the way, some other stats: 2.18 era, 1.097 whip, opponents 202/282/270.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#331163) #
Maybe the main reason for his exceptional season is his .435 BABIP? (Occam's Razor.)

Jeff Goldklang of the Goldklang minor league baseball owner's group tweeted the following last month.

"Speaking with scouts the other night at MiLB game, someone asked a ?- What's the 1 thing ur sure about? Answer- Sandy Leon is on PEDS."

Now probably a lot of area scouts aren't familiar with philosophical postulates of 12th C monks, but I'm guessing they've seen this show before. Colabello had a similar BABIP last year of .411. Rather than providing the fewest suppositions, BABIP asks us to presume that a disproportionate number of balls in play are going for hits due to 'luck' or for some other unexplained reason like coincidence/cluster. That's not fewer suppositions, and if you broke them down there would possibly me even more suppositions involved.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#331164) #
The odd thing about Leon is that he started 2016 in Pawtucket and didn't hit there (i.e. hit as he usually has in the rest of his career).  This year he has killed LHP in 72 PAs and has a more normal line against RHP.  It kind of reminds me of Dioner Navarro's year in 2013 with the Cubs, but Navarro was a serviceable hitter prior to that. 

For what it's worth, I don't think PEDs are involved.  I think that he's figured something out. Peter Gammons on twitter suggested that Chili Davis altered his stance to a more upright position.  It would be fun, I suppose, to check out video and swing mechanics from 2015 to 2016.  The Red Sox hitters have done very well as a group and perhaps Davis is actually an exceptional coach. 

Parker - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#331165) #
Based on regression to the mean, that greasy little cheater is due for a massive meltdown. Here's hoping this is the day.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#331166) #

leon sucked in AAA, then tore the cover off the ball as soon as he was promoted. when did Chili make this adjustment for him?


but anyways, the fun times are over for him already:

Last 16gms: 64pa, .631ops, 66wrc+

it was fun while it lasted, but he's far from the only crappy player to have a crazy 150pa.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#331167) #
This year he has killed LHP in 72 PAs and has a more normal line against RHP.

Well, it's literally true that his line vs. RHP is "more normal" than his Schmidtian 1.165 OPS vs. lefties (an improvement from an OPS of .118!! vs. LHP with the Sox last year). But his OPS vs. RHP is still .871. With the Nationals, he managed an OPS against righties of barely more than .400. That's some awful good Chili he's having.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#331168) #
Gammons is a veteran baseball writer and seems to be an amiable guy. He is more informed than some journalists, but often there isn't a lot of substance to what he says. And he probably isn't the most objective source when it comes to the Red Sox. Had Colabello been with Boston last year, Gammons likely would have written about his improved stance / approach at the plate / work ethic, etc.
Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#331170) #
Who in the Sam Hill is Rich Hill?

Rich Hill 2005-07 (portrait of a healthy young man):
4.39 ERA, 318 IP, 278 H, 46 HR, 119 BB, 294 K

Rich Hill 2008-14 (an unhealthy young man grows old and wild):
5.42 ERA, 153 IP, 151 H, 12 HR, 108 BB, 157 K

Rich Hill 2015-16 (baseball is easy):
1.74 ERA, 124 IP, 75 H, 4 HR, 35 BB, 146 K

Not sure what is most impressive about this unlikely career path. The fact that he even stuck with baseball for 7 years during which he averaged just over 20 MLB IP per year? The fact that he has now tackled to the ground his wildness and homerun proclivities? The fact that at age 35 he apparently morphed into Clayton Kershaw?

He should have Sandy Leon as his personal catcher.

Parker - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#331172) #
Kinda sounds like Dickey.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#331173) #
Pretty unfair to tarnish someone with the cheater label based on one anonymous scout and a SSS.  These out-of-nowhere success stories are part of the charm of baseball.  Is Ryan Schimpf juiced?  Rich Hill?

BTW - did manager Dave Roberts do the right thing pulling Hill after 7 perfect innings and 89 pitches last night?  Certainly a gutsy call. 

Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#331174) #
Ryan Schmipf has a 354 ISO. 354!

He has more doubles than he has singles. He has more homeruns than he has singles. He has 50 hits, 38 of which are XBH.

By the way, this go-big-or-go-home approach carried him through the minors as well, during which time 49% of his 643 hits were XBH.

He is listed at 5'9", 180 pounds. Which probably means he is not even that big.

Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#331175) #
Damn it. Schimpf. Not Schmipf. Must have been my subconscious wanting to type Schmidt (with CBDC having planted that seed).
Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#331176) #
Goins gets the start at 2B today, likely to give Sanchez the best possible infield defense.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#331177) #
Also, Goins has good career numbers vs Buchholz. Gibbons likes that.
92-93 - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#331178) #
And because he's 9/22 vs. Buchholz, which must drive Bill James' chesterfield managers nuts. It's a great move by Gibby in light of how things have been going on both sides of the ball.
Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#331179) #
And because he's 9/22 vs. Buchholz

Thanks. I assumed that was part of the equation but didn't know where to look that up.

Parker - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#331180) #
jerjapan, I was talking about Buchholz.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#331182) #
Gotcha Parker, although I was mostly replying to another post and didn't know Bucholtz had a rep as a cheater? 

Schimpf flashed serious ISO all the way to AA, but in 368 ABs over 2 seasons in AAA it was never higher than the .170 he posted in 2014, a number not much lower than his batting average that year.  Perhaps a BABIP casualty in Buffalo, but what he's doing this year is up there with Leon and right behind Hill in terms of the crazy longshot makes good - can any of our veteran posters think of a story quite like Hill's emergence as a seemingly legit ace?
Chuck - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#331183) #
and didn't know Bucholtz had a rep as a cheater?

Dick Hayhurst's accusations from 2013.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#331184) #
Dirk is a more unlikely name than Dick, but still.  Maybe time for another coffee, Chuck? By the way, BBRef game previews included all relevant batter vs. pitcher records.

I remember when Peter Gammons predicted Lloyd Moseby's breakthrough season (1983) in spring training following 3 rough major league years. I don't find him to be excessively homer.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#331185) #
So, I ran a Play Index to find out how many pitchers made 20 or more starts at age 35-36 and had an ERA under 2 and a FIP under 2.5.  The answer was two- Rich Hill and Spud Chandler.  Chandler's case is nothing like Hill's.  He had a great year at age 35 in a war year, after having had success when healthy prior. 

The closest thing might be Dazzy Vance, who had no success at all in his 20s, had his first good year at age 31 and was a great pitcher from age 33-39.  The aging pattern for pitchers is a bit different than it is for hitters. 

uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#331186) #
elite gloves pillar and goins cost us a run already. damn.
Four Seamer - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#331187) #
I see we've brought our "A" game on defence again today.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#331188) #
Sanchez is nibbling.  Time to end that, please. 
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#331189) #
This will get ugly quick if Sanchez doesn't start throwing strikes.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#331190) #
defense just killing us lately. the whole team has the yips.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#331191) #
Yeah Donaldson should have had that. Still Sanchez needs to stop waking people,
Four Seamer - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#331192) #
Time for another meeting.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#331193) #
And not giving up HRs too would help.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#331194) #
I thought that Donaldson had control of the ball until he hit his body with the glove on the way up from making the tag.  Probably not long enough...
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#331195) #
I thought the runner beat the tag anyway, and he'd be safe on review.

Welp, time for the bats to come to the rescue I guess. Donaldson not going 0-fer for a 7th straight game would be a good start.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#331196) #
sanchez gets squeezed on a borderline coulda been strike 3, next pitch is a 3 run dinger. ach.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#331197) #
Well Goins got called a ball on the same pitch next inning, so at least it was consistent. Sanchez still has issues with lefties, but at least he's league average against them now. But if he's going to walk people or give up HRs it's always going to be to lefties.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#331198) #
It was a ball. 

It's going to be a Biagini game.  Time for the bats to give him something to work with.

uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#331199) #
Tulo, who apparently called the team meeting, with a big chance to lead by example instead of words.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#331200) #
AND HE DOES!

biggest hit of the season for the jays.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#331201) #
That will do.
Parker - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#331202) #
It's funny how Buccholz has reverted to little more than a batting-practice pitcher at Skydome since he can no longer rub his pitching hand through his greasy mullet or wipe it on the forearm slathered with sunscreen.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#331203) #
Cecil to face Ortiz in the 4th inning?  It's going to be a 4 hour game.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#331204) #
My word.

Now it's time for Cecil to either possibly salvage his season or perhaps make his final appearance as a Jay.
John Northey - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#331205) #
I think it is about time to smack whoever decided it would be a good idea to go to a 6 man rotation and to send Sanchez down for a bit as it seems to have flopped badly. Sanchez hasn't been the same since and a few others have had issues. Might be coincidence but geez does it get annoying.
CeeBee - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#331206) #
guess he lives to pitch another day.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#331207) #
Or maybe they were right and he's wearing down as the season progresses and this is what they were trying to prevent. It seems a bit silly to blame them for him being tired when they were trying to prevent him from getting that way. I guess it's just a lose lose situation. The only way management doesn't get blamed is if he was perfect or his arm blew up. Everything else is going to be blamed on them and not on Sanchez.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#331208) #
Also it seems fairly obvious that Estrada is injured and hasn't been right lately and that injury dated to before the six man.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#331209) #
yeah john it's really hard to ignore that correlation.


SP Pre-deadline: 105gs, 6.4ip/gs, 3.65era
SP Post-deadline: 38gs, 5.5ip/gs, 4.58era
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#331210) #
The big boys showing up in the big game. more of this please.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#331211) #
Far more likely that they have just reverted some to their true talent level. Jays have solid starters but as people have said all year not really aces. They've just pitched better than we thought they would. But sure feel free to blame it on the six man rotation if that makes a convenient narrative for you.

Also seems Sanchez had blister issues today which probably didn't help with control.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#331212) #
true, we didn't sign any aces this offseason.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#331213) #
He's out, but the call won't go our way.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#331214) #
that article claimed Gibby is to blame for a poor record in replay reviews. I don't think he's the one to blame.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#331215) #
I don't think I've seen a replay go the Jays way this season; it's actually incredible. And that one...geez, I thought he was out by a solid 2 inches. Now he's standing on 3rd. This game..
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#331216) #
there's been a few replays this series, I'm pretty sure they were all the wrong result, and they've all gone against us.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#331217) #
must be coincidence............................................................
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#331218) #
Noe Ramirez is a real meatball. He's their Schultz. We gotta get something off him.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#331219) #
1st half of this game took 2 hours to play.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#331220) #
Loup is at his best when he doesn't have to throw any pitches.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#331221) #
glad gibby left saunders in.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#331222) #
Would prefer to just go to Benoit ...
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#331223) #
ugh schultz.

is barnes unavailable?
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#331224) #
I mean schultz against the top of the order. wtf.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#331225) #
Of course.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#331226) #
Why is Ryan Goins batting for himself against a lef....hey! A base hit. Good stuff.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#331227) #
come on pillar. barnes ain't good.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#331228) #
nice call, ump.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#331229) #
Feels like we're going to view that Ortiz bomb as the moment the season ended.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#331230) #
ump suddenly has a massive zone.

at least for them.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#331231) #
0-for-23.

Good night.
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#331232) #
Jds slump couldn't have come at a worse time. Hard to criticize the MVP, but he's the biggest reason for this slump. Even average Josh likely gains us 2-3 wins in this stretch,
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#331233) #
MORE ump bullcrap. for chrissakes.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#331234) #
How much more soul-crushing can this game get?

Hey, how about a reversed call pre-replay that's upheld because of of inconclusive replay.
King Ryan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#331235) #
Hard to believe they lost a game where Edwin had 2 jacks and Tulo hit a grand slam.

But here we are.

Feels even worse than that Yankee game. What a terrible month.
Four Seamer - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#331236) #
Given the way it caromed back into right field, I think it must have been foul.  The process they used to get to the right call, however, sure was fishy.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#331237) #
rough rough loss but at least we showed up after that embarassing first game.

now we have to take out our frustrations on tbay and LA while boston faces BAL and NYY. we can't afford to screw up this week.
uglyone - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#331238) #
mookie didn't think it was foul.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#331239) #
If they want to remain in the division race, they absolutely must take the series vs Tampa. A sweep would be ideal. But they have to win at least two.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#331240) #
I'm surprised they called it fair initially. It looked like it hit the side wall.

But it is pretty funny that they reversed the call on the field before the replay, then the replay was probably inconclusive...therefore defaulting to the call on the field, which was originally fair, then changed.

scottt - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#331241) #
It seems like Sanchez has some finger issues and was fighting with his grip.
That explains the loss of control and the untypical movement of his fastballs that made them easier to hit.

I was confident they could  beat Clay, but I didn't  figure on Sanchez not giving us 5.

SK in NJ - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#331242) #
Tough loss. The offense finally comes to life a bit, but the Jays pitchers give up 11 runs. I felt Biagini should have pitched both the 5th and 6th innings, at least until he gave up the lead. Counting on Schultz against the top of the Red Sox order, and then bringing in Benoit to face Ortiz ended up with a predictable result. The Jays just have a negative vibe to them right now. Even when they were up 6-4 and 8-6, it felt like only a matter of time before the Red Sox came back.

Oh well, move on from here, and take advantage of 7 games against bad teams (although the Rays might as well be the '98 Yankees when they face the Jays). The division is still possible, but I tend to agree that the Ortiz bomb feels like something we'll look back on as the death blow.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#331243) #
way to early to talk about 'death blows' but agreed that Schultz was the wrong guy - I'm far more interested in how a reliever is pitching over the past month or so (poorly, in Schutlz's case) than I am in how their stuff works in a specific matchup.  Schultz should be the last guy out of the pen IMO.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#331244) #
I thought that Martin's ball hit the fair side of the base of the foul pole (a rounded object) The extreme carom was consistent with that and not with hitting the side wall (a flat object). You could have seen it for sure if they had better slo-mo.
SK in NJ - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#331245) #
I didn't think there needed to be a pitching change just because JBJ was up. Biagini is the 2nd best reliever on the team. He has earned, or should have earned, a level of trust in that situation. Blowing Loup in that spot meant that a righty (either Benoit or one of the team's Sept call ups since they wouldn't use Grilli or Osuna that soon) was going to have to face Ortiz, and that's just a really bad match-up. If Biagini makes the final out in the 5th and then faces Pedroia and Bogaerts in the 6th, then Loup is available for Ortiz, and then Benoit after that. Of course it's easy to say in hindsight, but I think when you have a reliever as good as Biagini, you live with the consequences with him on the mound.
Alex Obal - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#331246) #
The season ends with three games in Boston, and those are still three weeks away. I don't see how anyone could have watched the past week of games and still not believe in the hot hand. And its corollary, the cold, dead hands from which Boston has snatched first place. There's plenty of time for the worm to turn back, but they do need to be within one game of the Red Sox when that series starts to have a realistic chance.

Donaldson should take a couple more 0-fors in the Tampa series just because it'll make his revival a better story.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#331247) #
The Jays are currently on an 89-win pace and are tied for Baltimore for first in the WC race. Detroit and New York are 2 games back. Houston is 3 games back. Seattle and KC are 4 games back.

89 wins may well garner a WC berth, but there are no guarantees.

89 is still better than the 77-87 win range I predicted for the Jays (I envisioned a win total at the high end of this range if Travis and Pompey were contributing member of the team). So I may have been overly pessimistic at the outset of the season. Of course, I hope that the Jays end up winning 94 games and make me look even more off base.
China fan - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#331248) #
"....Schultz should be the last guy out of the pen IMO...."

 I agree.  Still, it probably didn't matter.  Very few of the Jays relievers have shown the ability to shut down the Boston lineup in its current form.  What really mattered was the blister or finger ailment (or whatever it was) that was affecting Sanchez today.  If Sanchez had had a normal start, the Jays would have won this game easily. 
Kasi - Sunday, September 11 2016 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#331249) #
The guys yesterday did pretty well with them. I think Biagnini, Benoit, Grili and Osuna are fine but yeah when your starter doesn't go four that puts you in a rough spot.
85bluejay - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 06:52 AM EDT (#331250) #
It's starting to look like the beginning of the end & the bad news is that the Red Sox & Yankees may be at the start of an extended run.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#331251) #
er we just got beat by a guy about to retire in a month.
Mike Green - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#331252) #
The distance between Ryan Goins and Sandy Leon is not as large as seems; Goins is a helluva sub-.200 hitter.  He had a nice at-bat against Hembree (who is probably the best of the Sox middle inning guys) to wear him down; that didn't hurt when Encarnacion came up later in the inning and homered. Anyways, I hope Travis is back at second base tonight- he didn't look comfortable at the plate as a DH. This is all too common for young energetic players.

It's been a rough week. Grilli gave up all those runs in New York, and now Benoit.  The only things that worry me about the club are Bautista/Saunders.  Bautista seems to have lost power, and while that might be helped by a month or two of resting the legs, it's not likely (in my  mind) to come back this season.  I am not sure what is up with Saunders- it might be his knee also or it might be timing/mental.  I am inclined to believe it is the latter; if so, it's a nice test for Brook Jacoby. 

SK in NJ - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#331253) #
I did not watch the game, but just got around to seeing the highlights, and man, watching Tulo's grand slam and Edwin's 2-run HR really hurt. It must have felt like the weight of the past week was finally falling off their shoulders, only for the Red Sox to punch back even harder. Even a mediocre start by Sanchez and the Jays win that game, but that's baseball.

At this point I don't think there is any shame in saying the Red Sox are simply the better team. The Jays could still catch them if they get hot, but it's not like last season where the Jays were outscoring opponents at a record pace and had a huge talent advantage over the Yankees after the mid-season trades. The Red Sox are getting hot at the right time and the Jays cold at the wrong time.

Looking at the schedule, the Jays should aim to have at least 85 wins by the time they start the series with the Yankees. That means going 7-3 against Tampa, LAA, and Seattle. With the way they have played, that's a tall order, but if they want to win the division, they can't afford to limp their way there.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#331254) #
Is this the first time we've lost 3 series in a row this year?
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#331255) #
Red Sox just managed to tie up the season series against us.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#331256) #
Anatomy of a slump. (Lucky for stats convenience, the slump started exactly on September 1).

1. 2B Travis 39pa, 128wrc+
2. 3B Donaldson 40pa, 36wrc+
3. 1B Encarnacion 40pa, 164wrc+
4. DH Bautista 42pa, 68wrc+
5. C Martin 30pa, 58wrc+
6. SS Tulowitzki 33pa, 159wrc+
7. RF Saunders 24pa, -22wrc+
8. LF Upton 25pa, 109wrc+
9. CF Pillar 34pa, 82wrc+

B. UT Smoak 8pa, -63wrc+
B. OF Carrera 3pa, 35wrc+
B. IF Goins 4pa, 28wrc+
B. C Navarro 16pa, -25wrc+

B. UT Ceciliani 1pa, -100wrc+
B. OF Pompey 2pa, -100wrc+
B. IF Barney 2pa, -100wrc+
B. C Thole 2pa, -100wrc+


SP Stroman 2gs, 4.09era
SP Happ 2gs, 5.19era
SP Sanchez 2gs, 7.59era
SP Estrada 2gs, 9.82era
SP Dickey 1gs, 11.25era


RP Osuna 3.0ip, 0.00era
RP Biagini 4.0ip, 6.75era
RP Grilli 2.2ip, 13.50era
RP Benoit 3.2ip, 2.45era
RP Cecil 2.2ip, 0.00era
RP Feldman 1.1ip, 20.25era
RP Barnes 6.2ip, 2.70era

RP Loup 1.1ip, 0.00era
RP Dermody 3.0ip, 6.00era
RP Tepera 3.2ip, 7.36era
RP Liriano 2.0ip, 9.00era
RP Schultz 0.1ip, 54.00era


Most everything going not just wrong but very wrong this month.

Really the only bright spots at all have been Travis, EE, and Tulo.

The starting pitching is starting to scare me. I don't like Liriano but he can't really be much worse than most of the others this month.
Mike Green - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#331257) #
The September 12 birthday team has some sad stories:

C- Stan Lopata/Boss Schmidt
1B- Freddie Freeman
2B- Luis Castillo
SS- Pat Listach
3B- Sean Burroughts
LF- Charlie Keller
CF- Albie Pearson
RF- Andy Seminick

Bench- Schmidt, Fred Luderus, Maicer Izturis, Ollie Bejma, Jud Birchall

SP- Mickey Lolich
SP- Spud Chandler
SP- Clayton Richard
SP- Bob Groom
SP- Mark Thurmond

CL- Russ Christopher
SU- Dave Stenhouse
MI- John Montague
MI- John Dolan
LN- Matt Wisler

Chandler's career was up and down depending on his health.  Keller's stellar career came to an abrupt halt due to a back injury.  And then there's Russ Christopher.  He had a weak heart for his entire career due to rheumatic fever.  At age 30, he decided to come back for one last season in 1948 for the Cleveland Indians so that his family would have enough money in case he died young.  He led the league in saves with 17 (this was before the time of the relief ace or closer), but was used effectively in all kinds of situations.  The Indians defeated the Braves in the World Series with Christopher making only one appearance (2 batters faced, 2 hits).  And that was it for his career.  He died of the heart condition in 1954. 

Later in the same inning that Christopher pitched, Satchel Paige got the ball for the Indians.  It was the first appearance by an African-American pitcher in a World Series game. 



bpoz - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#331258) #
If my memory is correct, Cito complained about the 6 man rotation in 2010 I think. He preferred to use 5 men and then just shut down the guy that was in danger of a pitching overload. He thought changing the regular routine between starts had a bad effect.

So that is just my memory and Cito's opinion on the subject.

It seems every/most Septs a call up gets a few starts. IMO it is OK if the new guy replaces someone like Aron Laffey. Assuming that Laffey if mediocre in the rotation.

Also I don't have the answer to the Sanchez pitching overload.
Mike Green - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#331259) #
Odorizzi has been tough on the Jays, with only Saunders, Donaldson and Travis hitting him at all.   It's mostly been a BABIP thing though. 
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#331260) #
the google tells me cito toyed with / was forced to use some sort of 6 man rotation in 2010 and 1990, but I'm having a hard time figuring out if he liked it or not.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#331261) #
I think whats up with the rotation is various things.

Stroman has been solid but like usual has given up a decent amount of hard hit ground balls and he has times where he gets babiped to death.

Happ has been fine minus that one 3 ip start the second last time through. The one before he was aces for 5 before having some bad luck and getting knocked out. He'll be fine and he did really well against Boston here.

Sanchez well the blister thing doesn't help, but I do think he's getting fatigued as well. I think he'll be alright, just won't be as dominating as he was early season.

Estrada I think is hurt and has been hurt for several months since that NL trip thingie. He probably just needs the offseason to get better. Some stats are coming out that the spin rate on his pitches is way down, which has a lot to do with his success. (both deception on his pitches and inducing weak contact)

Liriano and Dickey are just inconsistent. They can be dominant or average or horrible, it's just not consistent.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#331263) #
It's starting to look like the beginning of the end & the bad news is that the Red Sox & Yankees may be at the start of an extended run.

I'm less interested in whether Toronto manages to hang on for a wild card appearance in 2016 (i think it's a tough haul) than I am in the longer term state of the organization.

I've been trying to console myself by thinking that the Red Sox have now called up Moncada and Benintendi, and traded Espinosa, leaving them only about 3 or 4 top prospects better than the guys we have. I hated seeing them get Groome in the draft, but that's life. The Yankees have an even better system than Boston's after Cashman's moves mid-season, at least according to Callis. Those two systems, New York's and Boston's are rated the top ones in the American League. In Boston's case, it's even more intimidating given that the core stars of their winning team are so young. Having a relatively aged team on the other hand, and a lower-tier farm system is not a good combination.

So my question to others is, does Bautista even bring back a draft pick? Does Saunders? Since the all-star break Bautista's OPS is .730. Worse, he can't play the outfield anymore. Saunders' OPS is an even worse .676 and he's no outfield star either. Edwin obviously will get a QO and have teams bidding, but will the other two? My ideal scenario would have all three going with first round picks coming back but I'm not at all confident in that outcome now.

I can see Bautista perhaps resigning with Toronto with an Estrada-like 2/26 deal, perhaps with a team option that'll be a facesaver for him. I have a hard time seeing anyone signing Saunders to give up a first-round pick right now, nor do I really care to see him back in Toronto.
SK in NJ - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#331264) #
Based on what I know today, my guess is Encarnacion declines the QO and leaves, Saunders is not offered the QO and leaves, and Bautista is back on a very short-term deal (1 or 2 years) after he declines the QO and sees tepid interest during free agency. Things can change obviously, but that's how I see it today.

I also share the opinion that the Red Sox and Yankees are on the verge of taking over the division again very soon, but nothing the Jays can do there except try to field a short-term contender in 2017-18 while Donaldson is under team control, while building up the farm simultaneously in that time.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#331265) #
23yr old Cy contender.
21yr old elite closer.
2 more 4-5war 25yr olds.

prospects dominating near every level of the minors.

and we just got beat by a 40yr old and 2 32yr olds in boston.
92-93 - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#331266) #
Saunders has been terrible for 3 months, and Bautista can't run or throw and hasn't shown anything with the bat since returning from injury; neither deserves a qualifying offer if the season ended today.
85bluejay - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#331267) #
It's going to be interesting to see in which direction Shapkins goes but I think they have to seriously consider a full rebuild as one option - the worst thing is being stuck in the mushy middle as the Riccardi Tenure demonstrated.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#331268) #
Playoff team with only one impending free agent having any real impact this year, and plenty of payroll to sign him.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#331269) #
Very generous with Pillar there. His defense is great, but his bat is mediocre now. I wouldn't call the minor league prospects dominating. Pompey had a bad year. Tallez can't hit lefties. Alford has big K rates. Red Sox have Moncada and Benintendi which are on a completely different level. Travis is good, but he doesn't compare to Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley. So they have better young hitters and better hitting prospects coming up. I do think we can match them in starting pitching, but our lineup is going to be really weak in comparison.
Mike Green - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#331270) #
Personally, I'm not worried about 2017 at this particular moment.  There's nothing to be done until 2016 is over, and events in the interim may change my opinions.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#331271) #
I didn't even include Pillar.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#331273) #
Travis is a good bit better than Bogaerts. Obviously not as good as Mookie though. The good bradley the past couple years has been about the same as Travis, though it's still hard to completely forget about the bad bradley before that (especially since he's been pretty bad since his hot first coupe months this season).


Betts 1515pa, 127wrc+, 13.6fwar, 16.3bwar, 6.4awar/650
Travis 590pa, 121wrc+, 4.4fwar, 4.7bwar, 5.0awar/650
Bradley 1349pa, 94wrc+, 7.0fwar, 7.6bwar, 3.5awar/650
Bogaerts 1933pa, 101wrc+, 8.6fwar, 7.8bwar, 2.8awar/650


but we could look at just the last 2 years to be kinder to the Sox kids:

Betts 1302pa, 126wrc+, 11.8fwar, 14.1bwar, 6.5awar/650
Travis 590pa, 121wrc+, 4.4fwar, 4.7bwar, 5.0awar/650
Bradley 819pa, 122wrc+, 6.9fwar, 7.2bwar, 5.6awar/650
Bogaerts 1289pa, 111wrc+, 8.2fwar, 7.2bwar, 3.8awar/650

Now there's only one Jay and 3 sox there, but then again we have Sanchez and Stroman.

And 21yr old Benintendi looks good, but so does 21yr old Osuna.



And there's no real arguing about what the prospects did this year - all of Tellez, SRF, Vladdy, Urena, and others dominated their levels while being young for them.
SK in NJ - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#331275) #
In baseball you don't need to "go for it" or rebuild; it's possible to do both. It just requires a lot of good management and patience to pull it off (and luck). The Red Sox and Yankees did not spend years in last place to build their systems up. They used their resources to sign international talent, draft well, and/or trade well. I think the Jays may have done a rebuild to some degree when Shapiro was first hired (July/August 2015) but after the 2nd half run that year and now the attendance/ratings in 2016, I don't see that happening. Nor does it need to happen, really. The Jays are not on Boston and New York's level as far as long-term prognosis, but I don't think a scorched earth rebuild is the only way to get there.

With that said, I do think it will require a lot of good moves by Atkins/Shapiro to keep this team on Boston's level next season. It really depends on how they fix RF/LF/DH next season with a bad free agent market.
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#331276) #
Who is the other 4-5 WAR 25 year old?
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#331277) #
M.Stroman (25): 52gs, 6.6fwar, 5.9ra9war, 4.0war/32gs
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#331279) #
Oh, you were talking career WAR. That's .. sneaky.
Parker - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#331280) #
When did Stroman put up 6.6 fWAR?
Parker - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#331281) #
Also, based on the admission that Benintendi looks good, why would you compare an everyday position player to a bullpen arm?

How many times did Mariano Rivera outperform a league-average leftfielder in fWAR? Was it more than twice?
Parker - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#331282) #
I actually don't know why I bother, at this point. I feel like I'm trolling, even when I'm mostly not.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#331283) #
"Oh, you were talking career WAR. That's .. sneaky."

sneaky?

what should I be basing it on? (knowing that stroman is top-20 mlb in fwar this year, of course).

uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#331284) #
Rivera put up a war higher than an average LF most years, actually.

But the more important point being that a kid dominating in relief at age 20-21 means he shouldn't be a reliever long term.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#331285) #
Why would you feel like you are trolling, as opposed to just being wrong?
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#331286) #
Or rather, we are going to use fWar instead of bWar (this time,) we are going to credit it all to his starts, and we are going to pro-rate it to 32 starts a season, which he's never made and which starters rarely make. And even then, he's barely going to hit 4.

How do I roll my eyes on this site?
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#331287) #
I used both fwar and ra9war. Why do you want me to ignore some of his performance?
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#331288) #
And you just said "barely 4war" for a 25yr old SP as if that's not impressive or comparable to the sox kids.

How do I roll my eyes on this site?
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#331289) #
I never said anything about how impressive he is or isn't. Right now he's been about a 2 WAR pitcher, and that is good. I like Stroman a lot. There just isn't any need to cherry pick and manipulate things to try to make some infantile point.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#331290) #
See, when you cherry pick one stat and ignore everything else, you can't accuse someone else of cherry picking, because that wouldn't make sense.

and then call them infantile to boot.
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#331291) #
Sigh. You made the contention that Stroman is a 4-5 WAR player. I think this is a reach given his numbers to date. It would be great if he put in 5 WAR next year but I am not counting on it. That's all.

I will not further this discussion with you. Everybody can see the game that you play.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#331292) #
I showed my work. There's no games. Averaging out all their WARs, Stroman has produced as about a 4war SP so far, and Travis about a 5war 2B so far. If you think calling them "2 more 4-5war 25yr olds" is misleading, that's fine, but doesn't change what they've actually done.

But feel free to see what kind of WAR any of the projection systems projects for him going forward, if you're still convinced I'm the biased one.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#331293) #
ah I'll save you the suspense. Fangraphs dept charts average out steamer and zips, and have stroman at 0.4fwar and 0.4ra9war over 3 more starts.

That's a - wait for it - 4.3war pace over a full season.

Obviously, they're playing games too.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#331294) #
actually that's a way to see how an honest look at the numbers sees them going forward - average rest of season projections. Super rough calculation but it's better than baseless insults, at least.

Betts 4.9war/650 ----- Stroman 4.3war/32gs
Bradley 3.3war/650 ---- Pillar 3.3war/650
Bogaerts 3.2war/650 --- Sanchez 3.2war/32gs
Rodriguez 2.1war/32gs - Travis 2.7war/650
Shaw 1.5war/650 ------- Osuna 1.6war/65ip

I guess it's the numbers that are biased.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#331297) #
Lol that's amusing, a possible MVP candidate the same as a guy with a 4.5 ERA. (Betts has 7.0 fwar to Stroman's 3.2) Also laugh at the Bradley/Pillar one. I don't even know how you come up with a 4.9/650 number for a guy who is already at 7.
jerjapan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#331298) #
I will be very, very surprised if all three of EE, Jose and Saunders don't get a QO, although I may change my mind on Saunders if he continues to limp towards the finish line.  The reward - a 1st round pick - outweighs the risk - a $17 million dollar one year contract for a guy that doesn't deserve that number on the market.  But like they say, no such thing as a bad one year contract.   Every year this topic comes up - do we qualify Estrada?  Pick up Lind's option?  Dickey's?  And every year, the options are picked up, the QO extended or the player is resigned.  The terms are insane, but that's baseball. 

Zero chance that Rogers doesn't give Jose the QO IMO.   

The Yanks and the Sox have strong farm systems indeed, and I'd feel better if we were in any other division in the game, but Ugly is right that our system is on the rise, and our under 25 talent is comparable.  I'll take Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Travis and Pillar as a young core any day. 

uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#331299) #
Do you usually laugh at math?
King Ryan - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#331300) #
Agreed. The other thing is, well, someone mentioned that the FA market is bad -- but it's BAD. Really bad. Like, Justin Smoak was primed to be one of the better 1B available bad.

I wouldn't normally advise making a big offer to EE but the options are extremely limited. And yes, most of the eligible players should be qualified.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#331301) #
I just don't see it, especially with the Red Sox. We have some fine pieces but a lot of holes and much less coming up the pipeline. And also a proven incapability to produce hitting prospects from our own system. I do agree it is likely all 3 are optioned, but to me it increases the chance of getting EE back if they don't option one of the other 2, most likely Saunders. That 15+ million dollars can be given to EE.

Still don't understand the numbers uglyone posted with Betts and others. Betts is at 7.0 right now and projected to pick up another 0.7-0.8. How do you get a 4.9 out of that? He's even higher in BWar at 8.2 there. Anyway Betts by himself is worth as much as half of our top 5. (more than Stroman + Osuna + Pillar combined)
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#331302) #
Only your math uglyone. Betts on fangraphs is projected as 0.6-0.7 for rest of season to Stromans 0.3 - 0.4. Even ignoring current season results that ratio alone gives much more than the 4.9 to 4.3 numbers you posted. The comparison should give Betts a number of roughly shy of double. So lets say 7 to 4 or so.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#331306) #
Stroman is projected for 0.4fwar and 0.4ra9war in 3 more starts, correct. But he'll get 4-5 more starts, not 3.

Betts is projected for 0.6 war in 19 more games, which is one day off the rest of the way, which probably won't happen so it'll be 20gms.

Ignore my math and use your own to figure out what that means the projections think of them going forward.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#331307) #
Sure I guess I can see that, although that is a lot of fudging. I'd rather take their performance to date this year. 7.0 to 3.2. Which is a lot more representative then projections over a 20 game period.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#331308) #
Oh I see STEAMER runs a consistently updated 600pa/200ip/65ip projection on fangraphs too. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600u&team=14&lg=all&players=0

I don't like using just one projection system alone but that's all there is for this type of updated pace projection and as a bonus this requires no uglymath at all (well, I do average fwar and ra9war here for pitchers, which mostly helps Rodriguez).

Stroman 4.3 - Betts 4.5
Pillar 2.9 - Bradley 3.2
Sanchez 2.8 - Rodriguez 2.8
Travis 2.4 - Bogaerts 3.2
Osuna* 1.3 - Benintendi 1.7
xxxxxxxxx - Shaw 1.6
Pompey 1.1 - Swihart 0.7
Tellez 87wrc+/0.0war - Moncada 71wrc+/0.0war

* - projected only for 65ip as an RP
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#331309) #
I also hate 200ip projections instead of 32gs projections - because imo going deep into games is a real SP skill. projecting 200ip for a guy like EdRo, who averaged about 5.5ip per start is a big stretch compared to doing it for Stroman and Sanchez, who both average near 6.5ip per start.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#331310) #
and the Yanks using that updated STEAMER pace projection:

Severino 3.7
Sanchez* 2.4
Bird 2.1
Gregorius 2.1
Hicks 1.3
Refsnyder 1.2
Castro 1.1
Judge 1.0
Torreyes 0.1
Austin 0.0

* - catchers only projected to 450pa due to the nature of their position. That would project to 3.2war over 600pa for Sanchez.
Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#331311) #
I guess that is why there is the phrase "numbers lie" since any derived numbers that place Stroman and Betts as near equals is hiding something.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#331312) #
I'd give Betts the lead to, probably a good one. I'd guess that it underrates Travis a bit too, but I don't think it changes the overall point much. But if we're judging our pitchers just on 2016 ERA, then we might decide to match their 23yr old mvp candidate up against our 23yr old Cy candidate in any comp.

(And if you think including Stroman's previous season is dishonest for some reason, and only want to focus on this year due to recency....well, if we really care about recency, we can look at how he's done since the start of July, and see that he's posted a 3.52era and a 4.7 average war pace.)
Four Seamer - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#331313) #

I also hate 200ip projections instead of 32gs projections - because imo going deep into games is a real SP skill. projecting 200ip for a guy like EdRo, who averaged about 5.5ip per start is a big stretch compared to doing it for Stroman and Sanchez, who both average near 6.5ip per start.

Wait just one second - we have been going through a season-long drama over how many innings Sanchez will be allowed to pitch, and Stroman, with four strong starts to finish the year will end up with just a shade over 200 IP (a career high by a considerable margin), and you want to just blithely assume that they are good for 32 starts a year, because it helps your argument?  I'm not taking any position on the merits of your broader argument regarding the quality of each team's respective young players, but there is more than a little wishcasting involved if you want to take it as given that they are each good for 32 starts.

uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#331314) #
When steamer does their 600pa/200ip/65ip projections they aren't assuming that players will hit those targets.

That's not the point of them at all.

(But Stroman will hit 32 or 33 this year, and Sanchez 30 or 31, so the objection doesn't even really make sense in any context, anyways.)



Kasi - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#331315) #
Hitters are more valuable than pitchers. They have a longer shelf life and usually get injured less. Also typically less volatile. Even if Betts and Sanchez were even in WAR I'd rather have Betts. But they're not. Heck I would rather have Betts than Syndergaard. I don't know what pitchers I'd take over Betts. Actually since Syndergaard leads the majors in pitching FWar I guess that answers the question. I wouldn't take any pitcher over Betts. Which should be obvious since Betts has 0.4 FWar more than Sanchez and Stroman combined. (he has 3.3 bWar more than them combined too)

That's the problem with the comparisons. We have some solid player and some really good players. So do they. They also have a budding superstar. He's as good as Josh and only 23. He's going to be really cheap for many more years. He only starts get arb years in 2018, at which point he's still reasonably costed to 2022.
85bluejay - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#331316) #
I believe uglyone could find some statistic to show that the 1962 Mets are as good as the 1927 Yankees.
Parker - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#331317) #
uglyone: See, when you cherry pick one stat and ignore everything else, you can't accuse someone else of cherry picking, because that wouldn't make sense.

With all due respect to Mick Doherty, Magpie, Chuck, Michael, Jonny German, Mike Green, ComebyDeanChance, #2Brumfield, SK in NJ, and electric carrot, this post is the most entertaining and hilarious I've ever read on Batter's Box. I might have missed many others, but this is truly epic, and I literally fell off my chair laughing when I read it.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#331318) #
"That's the problem with the comparisons. We have some solid player and some really good players. So do they. They also have a budding superstar. He's as good as Josh and only 23. He's going to be really cheap for many more years. He only starts get arb years in 2018, at which point he's still reasonably costed to 2022."

I mean, you know that a 23yr old Cy young candidate is kind of a big deal, right?
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#331319) #
"I believe uglyone could find some statistic to show that the 1962 Mets are as good as the 1927 Yankees."

Do you think it's hard to find WAR?

Do you think it's my devious statistical chicanery that have conjured us a 23yr old Cy contender out of thin air? or a 21yr old elite closer?
greenfrog - Monday, September 12 2016 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#331320) #
In my opinion, uglyone's posts add a lot of value to this site. They're often interesting and creative and open up new perspectives on the team. Which is way more than can be said for some of his trolls and critics.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 13 2016 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#331335) #
Hmm I don't think a guy getting 3-4 WAR is anywhere near a guy getting 7-8 WAR. Sure Sanchez is good but Betts is way better, I don't see why this is arguable, especially given the uncertainty on pitchers health. Cy Young candidates impress me way less than getting 8+ WAR which very few players get to. Heck going by any measurement system this year they're not close. You add Sanchez and Stroman together and they still don't equal Betts value. I'd like to hear any argument that says Sanchez is in any way comparable to Betts. Even Noah isn't and he's the best young pitcher in baseball.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 13 2016 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#331344) #
I have no problem saying Betts is better. I do have a problem with you minimizing what having a 23yr old Cy contender means about our youth. Or a 21yr old elite closer. Or two 25yr olds who have produced at a 4-5 win pace so far in their young careers. This is very, very good youth. This might be the best group of youth we've had in decades.

The MVP vs. CY preference is an interesting one worthy of plenty of debate, though the fact that its easier to rack up elite WAR as a position player isn't quite the clearcut argument that it looks like.

Especially since in this case, Mookie is gaining so much war from the harder to quantify parts of the game in defense and baserunning. His actual offense is not elite. His elite WAR is being produced in a similar fashion as the elite years of guys like Heyward and Crawford. This doesn't minimize what he's done this year - because really, I love mookie - but it explains why projection systems are conservative with him going forward - because projecting that kind of defensive and baserunning war is just not safe.


bpoz - Tuesday, September 13 2016 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#331347) #
Thanks CBDC for initiating this very interesting discussion.

I think you believe that the NYY have as good a farm as Boston. That was my interpretation. You also mentioned thinking that Callis also holds that opinion.

My poor judgement on farm systems has disappointed me in the past. I really, really hope that you are correct and that the NYY have an equivalently talented farm system as the Red Sox. But no Bauxites seem to support this conclusion IMO, since none have said anything about the farm and young hotshots of the NYY. Except for Uglyone in other threads.

I take Uglyone seriously because he seems sincere to me.

Both NYY and Boston are rich teams. In the past they landed many expensive FAs. The luxury taxes on the ML payroll and draft penalties on International and June overspending should lower their spending. I hope so anyway.

If Boston and NYY become juggernauts they both cannot win the division. So one team will be in a 1 game wildcard playoff. IMO both teams will trade/sell their prospects at the July 31st trade deadline to get 1st place and avoid that 1 game WC playoff.

Therefore I believe that their elite farm systems will be depleted.

If the Jays go back to .333 winning % against NYY, Boston and probably TB then we will not see the playoffs because we play those 3 teams much too often. Our strategy will be to create a window of contention every few years.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 13 2016 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#331350) #
Mookie Betts has basically been as productive with the bat alone as Edwin Encarnacion this year.

If you are going to criticize his bat, you have to dig deeper than rate statistics.  A lot of his offensive value this year has resulted from the home runs, but his home run profile is the complete opposite of Encarnacion's.  Edwin leads the majors by a mile in no-doubters with 19.  Betts is second in the majors with 15 just-enoughs and tied for first in lucky homers with 5.  As you'd expect, most of them have come in Fenway and so he has a pretty significant home/away split.

Or to look at it another way, there were 3 Hall of Famers (well, Beltran ought to make it)  on Betts' age 22 BBRef comp list- Beltran, Dawson and Duke Snider.  As of age 23, he's considerably ahead of all of them. Snider was the most similar and like Betts enjoyed a considerable advantage from the short dimensions of his home park to his pull side.  Snider had his first power surge at age 23. 


uglyone - Tuesday, September 13 2016 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#331351) #
All I'm saying is that of all the elite WAR position players this year, Mookie by far is the one getting more from defense and baserunning than the others, all of whom are hitting considerably better than him.

In fact, he's being rated as the 2nd most valuable baserunner in baseball this year, behind only Hamilton, even though he has only 23sbs. He may very well be worth all that in terms of extra bases taken while on base, but there's a whole lot more noise in those kinds of numbers than in the pure hitting numbers.

Again, I love Mookie, and have always loved him. But there's good reasons for why the projections aren't confident he's a 7war player going forward.

Mookie is in fact the perfect example of why stats > scouts in terms of prospects. Mookie was never the highly rated prospect, that was always Xander - who is nowhere near the player Mookie is.
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