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Game Threads September 2-4: Tampa Bound (and Memphis Too, Short Fat Fanny Is On The Loose)
I'd love to refer to where the Rays play as the "Tropic Thunderdome", except that would imply it was actually cool in some way...



Coming out of a successful Baltimore series where a Matt Weiters home run may be the only thing keeping those Orioles' fading division hopes alive, the Bluebirds now travel to another town with an unfriendly recent history: Tampa Bay. Toronto actually hasn't fared too badly this season in Tampa (4-3) but there have been the usual instances of Tropicana Field wackiness. You know the kind, balls bouncing off supports beams in play, losing a ballgame because of a brand new slide rule, Josh Thole nearly hitting an actual home run... madness!

The 2016 Rays are an odd team. They're bad, certainly, yet most of this badness can be traced to one exact period of the season: June 16th to July 18th, where they went 4-24 (!). Yeah, winning just four games in a span of just over a month is bound to wreck anybody's season. You take that stretch out and they're 52-52, which seems about right when you look this team over. Their offense is thin but they do have some guys having great years (Longoria, Brad Miller, Forsythe), overall adding up to a roughly league average attack. Their starting pitching is steady as usual, despite Chris Archer's unstellar year (it looks like he's improved as the year has gone, though that 8-17 record is ug-ly). Also throw in an uncharacteristically weak bullpen beyond the closer Colome, and a defense not doing the pitchers any favours (13th in fielding percentage in the AL, if you're into that kind of thing) and you've really got a formula for a mediocre team. Solid hitting, solid starting pitching, weak bullpen and weak defense, nothing particularly outstanding -- a .500 team.

Except for, you know, that whole losing 24 of 28 games thing.

Matchups!

FRI 7:10 -- Stroman (9-5, 4.58) v. Cobb (---)
SAT 6:10 -- TBA (Estrada?) v. Archer (8-17, 4.11)
SUN 1:10 -- TBA (Happ?) v. TBA (really giving me a lot to work with here, MLB.com...)

Around The Race

The Orioles host the Yankees for a weekend series at Camden Yards, a tilt which promises to be both intriguing and pivotal for both teams. A Yankees sweep would leap frog New York over Baltimore and into at least third place in the AL East, sort of like trading one enemy for another I suppose. Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles while Chad Green counters for the Bombers in the opener tonight.

Special Non-Baseball Bonus!

Yeah... I seem to be bad at this. If any of you know the song referenced in the title, fire away. No-Prizes, Participation Trophies, cuttlefish and what-not apply.


Be nice to win a few.

Posted by Eephus on Friday, September 02 2016 @ 05:36 PM EDT.
September 2-4: Tampa Bound (and Memphis Too, Short Fat Fanny Is On The Loose) | 163 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#330532) #
If any of you know the song referenced in the title

Old folks need not apply, I'm thinking. But it's certainly something the team would like to do this weekend.
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Alex Obal - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#330533) #
When the Jays get exiled to 1st Avenue South I just assume somebody's joint will rip.
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Magpie - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#330534) #
I was looking at the discussion of Dickey coming out of the pen on the old thread. When I was very little, most knuckleball specialists were relief pitchers - Hoyt Wilhelm, Eddie Fisher, Barney Schultz. Charlie Hough came up as a reliever. Even Phil Niekro didn't become a full-time starter until he was 28, in his fourth season. Dickey did pitch out of the pen with Minnesota in 2009, although he wasn't particularly effective in the role.

Dickey was very effective pitching to Martin in 2015. Martin wasn't quite as good as Thole in actually preventing the knuckleball from going back to the screen, but he did OK. (He had 11 PB and 6 WP in 128.1 IP with Martin, 4 PB and 3 WP in 86 IP with Thole.) So you wouldn't necessarily need to have Thole on the roster, although you might think twice about bringing Dickey into a game with men on base. It makes most sense to me if you think you might need a long man, who can give you three or four innings.
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uglyone - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#330535) #
telecast says we're back to a 5 man rote for now. Liriano to the pen.
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China fan - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#330536) #
"....you wouldn't necessarily need to have Thole on the roster, although you might think twice about bringing Dickey into a game with men on base. It makes most sense to me if you think you might need a long man, who can give you three or four innings...."

Good points.  Wouldn't rule it out.  Maybe depends on how the playoff bullpen is shaping up, how much confidence do they have in Feldman as the long man, etc.
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Magpie - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#330537) #
It's September, and the Jays have made it this far without getting a single complete game from a starting pitcher, the Jays and five other teams (Orioles and Yankees in the AL East, Brewers, Rockies, and Marlins in the Other League.) Just ten years ago, no MLB team had ever gone through a season without a CG (three teams broke through that season). The franchise record for fewest in Toronto is 3 CG, back in 2014.
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BlueJayWay - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#330538) #
rip this joint
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Four Seamer - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#330539) #
How's Stroman's fip tonight?
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Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#330540) #
I don't know, but it looks like the hurricane shook the club up good. 
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Kasi - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#330541) #
I like the Stroman who tried to strike out batters more.
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jjdynomite - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#330543) #
This is based on the smallest of small sample sizes but there is no way I want Liriano pitching in relief in either a playoff game or game featuring potential playoff opponents, left-handedness be damned.
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Kasi - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#330544) #
Well not like Cecil has been any good lately and Loup is worse. Of course if you're going to use him as a LOOGY you shouldn't use him against the guy with a career 133 WRC vs lefties. Liriano if you want to use him in the BP needs to be used as a strict LOOGY.
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Kasi - Friday, September 02 2016 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#330546) #
Not saying they have to use Liriano that way, but if you want the best results that's probably how you should approach it. Keri and Hayhurst have both said that this week. Regardless it wasn't a bad pitch and a home run happened. Unlike the meatball Stroman pitched to Morrison.

I still don't think pitching is really the whole story from tonight. Offense went MIA again and the defensive play was fairly poor. Just a poor all around showing from the team.
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#330547) #
The FIP was probably not because he gave up a homerun.
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#330548) #
Let's try again, Stroman's FIP was probably not so good since he gave up a homerun and didn't strikeout many.
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#330549) #
Strangely, this was Upton's return game and I heard he got a standing ovation on this last at-bat with Tampa.
No question he had to be in the lineup. Too bad he went 0 for 4.

Liriano threw all of 16 pitches.  It's going to be hard to keep him stretched. He probably makes the playoff roster because unlike Dickey, he's still with the club next year.

Btw, anybody still wants to talks about the playoff roster after a loss like this when Boston won 16-2 and Baltimore 8-0?
It's not that the discussions here affect the standing. It's just that some people prefer not to discuss the hypothetical, or read about it, and a lot of things can change in a month.

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uglyone - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#330550) #
I thought trade deadline moves were supposed to help your team, not hurt it.

but hey at least we have the security of knowing that upton and liriano will be around next year too!
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#330552) #
Gibbons avoided the one run loss and used fewer relievers than Cash, so he's clearly the better manager.
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electric carrot - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#330553) #
Free Dickey from the starting rotation.
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jerjapan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#330554) #
Liriano and Upton were good deals Ugly, maybe not game changing for the season, but still good deals - Liriano was not acquired to be on the books next year - we are taking a flier on him.  If he stinks, he can be cut and we still have two good prospects, either one with more value than Hutch.  I am certainly not ready to rule out a comeback for him.  And you want Dickey off the team next year as much as anyone!

Upton has struggled with the bat, but he's worth 1.3 WAR counting his time with the Pads - more than adequate for a 4th OF, and much better than Carrera or Smoak.  Again, at $5 million, worth a flier.

On another note, man the Cubs are fun to follow.  Best team since the 2001 Mariners?

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uglyone - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#330555) #
trading for bad players playing badly to fill major roles is ok because yay we got a couple ok prospects at the deadline in a year we're trying to win a world series.
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jerjapan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#330557) #
Upton's been good this year.  A worthy reclamation project for next year as well.  Liriano was acquired at basically no cost to the roster and again, another possible reclamation target.  Even if he struggles, we are not falling behind unless you think of Hutch as a better 6th starter option. 

Agreed, it would have been nice to make an actual significant trade - for a lefty reliever perhaps.  The closest we got to sacrificing the future for a playoff drive was the Feldman deal, IMO the worst of the bunch at the time and with the benefit of hindsight. 

This FO is going to play things conservatively until the farm is really restocked.  We don't really have any major holes, so I'm fine with that.  Teams with major holes like Cleveland - catcher, Washington - right handed hitting 1b, and even Baltimore - a speedy 4th of with D - are the teams that should be called out for doing nothing at the trade deadline.
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Chuck - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#330559) #
Cleveland - catcher... Baltimore - a speedy 4th of with D

Cleveland did their darndest to acquire Lucroy. Baltimore got two speedy outfielders in Bourn and Stubbs.

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jerjapan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#330560) #
Thanks Chuck, missed those August 31st acquisitions by the Orioles.  Even dumpster diving is better than inactivity.  But Cleveland didn't get Lucroy or any sort of plan B in the catching market - possibly the biggest hole on any contender.
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China fan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#330561) #
".... anybody still wants to talks about the playoff roster after a loss like this...."

Fair point.  It's far too early to be confident of the playoffs.  The Tigers, by the way, have crept within 3 games of the Jays.  So basically the Jays fall out of a playoff spot if they slip more than 3 games down the standings in relation to Detroit and Baltimore. 

Basically, barring unexpected winning streaks from other teams, the Jays need to finish ahead of at least one of Boston, Baltimore or Detroit.  That seems likely, but far from assured, especially since Boston and Detroit (in particular) have been playing well lately.  And Baltimore could easily go on a tear at any point.  Despite their poor pitching, they continue to have a lot of powerful bats in their lineup.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#330562) #
How are people evaluating the Liriano/Hutchison trade?

Liriano will be paid $13 mil next year I believe and Hutch $3 mil. Please correct me if I am wrong. So was it a salary dump by Pittsburgh? Liriano is a lefty in his early 30s and Hutch in his mid 20s. So neither is washed up yet. We can see over the next 2 years who is the better pitcher.

I do not know what value to place on the 2 prospects we received.
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jerjapan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#330563) #
Bpoz, people are calling it a salary dump for Pittsburgh.  Some of the evaluators don't think highly of Pittsburgh's end of the deal, although I think we sold very low on Hutch and expect him to contribute for the Pirates.  MLB has McGuire 4th and Ramirez 5th in our top 30 prospects.  Personally, I have them in the 10th-12th range. 
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#330564) #
It's telling that the Pirates sent Hutchison straight to AAA. He's out of options, so he's not even a 6th starter for them next year.

Liriano should be the 5th starter in April 2017, but he'll have to improve to keep the job.
The rotation should be fine. The problem will be resigning enough offense to contend and putting together a new bullpen.

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pubster - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#330565) #
Liriano is a pretty solid number 5 starter. His strikeout rate suggests he still has high upside as well.

Having the rotation set also allows the front office to focus on other things, which hopefully means that they can sign a ja happ or two for the outfield.
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Four Seamer - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#330566) #
The problem isn't Liriano as the fifth starter. The problem is Stroman pitching like a fifth starter for most of the year, including last night.
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jerjapan - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#330567) #
Stroman was very good in July and great in August.  Nothing to worry about with Stro IMO.
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vw_fan17 - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#330568) #
According to MLBTR, the Jays signed Quintin Berry  to a AAA contract as a stretch-drive/postseason pinch-runner..

He's 27-1 SB/CS lifetime over several seasons, and apparently was 3/3 for the Red Sox in 2013 in "pinch run and steal a base" situations, so presumably can do a decent job of pinch-running..
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Four Seamer - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#330569) #
Unfortunately, the games he pitched in April, May, June and now September also count in the standings. I realize you're commenting on next year's rotation - I'm still stuck on 2016 and Stroman's mediocrity has a lot to do with why the Jays are only a game up. Reading this site some days, you'd think it was all Melvin Upton's fault.
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laketrout - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#330570) #
Start dickey every three games for 9 batters
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#330571) #
He signed on Thursday, so not eligible for MLB playoffs?
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vw_fan17 - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#330572) #
Actually, he apparently signed on Wednesday, it just wasn't reported until Thursday, being a minor league deal..
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ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#330573) #
The Jays always seem to follow a really crappy game with a good one so I'm expecting a win tonight, unless I jinxed things by saying this.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#330575) #
That was a nice at bat, after the first two guys made outs on a total of three pitches. Even if he did lose track of the count.
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Chuck - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#330576) #
"The good ones turn it up a notch in September." - PT

This is going to be a long night.

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bpoz - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#330577) #
scott, how are you calculating Hutch's options.

By my calculations. 2012 he gets to the Majors early in the season and gets injured after 11 starts. TJ surgery. In 2013 he pitched in the minors 10 gms, 9 starts. I believe that was rehab. Still on the DL. I could be in error in thinking that those rehab outings do not count against burning an option. But I could be wrong, but feel strongly that I am not wrong.

2014 and 2015 full season in the majors, so no options burned.
2016 full season in the minors 1 option burned.

So my calculation is that he has only burned 1 of his 3 options.

I will follow him because I had very high hopes for him.Lets see how he does.

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Magpie - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#330578) #
In 2013 he pitched in the minors 10 gms, 9 starts. I believe that was rehab.

At first they were rehab assignments, but he was eventually optioned back to the minors in August 2013.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#330580) #
Thanks Magpie. I see that he was optioned Aug 10 2013 and recalled Oct 1 2013. And did nothing, so paper work. So he could have burned an option by about 1 week or so.

Maybe he did and maybe he did not. AA burned options and left players unprotected very carelessly IMO. Sam Dyson. I will always hold that as a major flaw in AA's methods. Because on the other side of the equation he had "Asset Acquisition", which was a good concept. He gave up wins, as he gamboled on D Eveland and Jojo Reyes to become Major league pitchers.
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prospect - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#330581) #
Hutch was also optioned late last season IIRC.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#330582) #
There wasn't much choice in 2013, as a rehab assignment for a pitcher can only last 30 days.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#330585) #
Yeah I agree with you Four Seamer. Too much wrangling over things like Smoak and Upton and too little on the things that have really hurt, like Stromans inconsistency and the inconsistency of the offense. Although at least we can mostly stop complaining about the bullpen once they fixed it. Looks like another night where the bats don't show up to support a great start. If you had said at preseason that in September the starting pitcher numbers would be where they are we'd have all thought the Jays would have a 5-10 game lead, instead we are in a dog fight and that is mostly due to this offense who either scores a bunch of runs or scores three or less.

That is the biggest difference between this year and last. Last year they were good with runners on, this year the team is not good in those situations so despite some counting stats looking good the team continues to underperform.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#330586) #
It's going to go down as a bad outing for Estrada, but it sure would have helped if the offence had given him more than 1 run of support. 
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#330587) #
Yeah likely doesn't help that we have three starters (or four if you include Liriano) who can be going along great and just implode. Meaning by that Stroman, Dickey and Estrada. Happ and Sanchez are the only two I trust to be able to get a 6/3ER start when their stuff isn't their best. The others can be going along great and then completely lose it.
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#330588) #
Estrada was going too well, so his pitch count was really low and pulling him out at the first sign of trouble wasn't really an option. A blooper. Bad bunt defense. A walk.

Estrada's strength is avoiding the jams, not getting out of them.

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Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#330589) #
A good time for Biagini to give up his 1st homer.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#330590) #
Estrada never goes deep into games. If it wasn't for Boomhauer burning through the entire bullpen in the last two games (despite a day off!) then the Jays might not be on their way to getting swept by a team that should by rights be twenty games under .500.

But no, what am I saying? Gibbons keeps the clubhouse together. Thank God for that. Maybe Joe Torre can hire him as an assistant after the Jays fire him and he can't find a job anywhere above Double-A.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#330591) #
In the end the pitching isn't going to matter tonight, just another game when the collection of all star talent the Jays have fails to perform.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#330592) #
There's no way that's the man-manager's fault, though, right? They guy leading the team with a historical lead on runs scored last year that couldn't even get to the World Series? The guy leading the division-leading team that is about to drop (at minimum) two of three against a team that by rights should be 20 games below .500?

Hey, you never know, right?
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BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#330593) #
There's only one objective when they play in Tampa: don't get swept. If they accomplish that it's a good series.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#330594) #
It would be pretty great though if this World Series contender with the 3rd-best manager in all of baseball could actually do something other than regularly get humiliated by MLB's basement-dwellers, though.

Good job, Gibbons. Despite being handed an epic (and unheard-of) collection of baseball talent, your "leadership" results in a team playing below .500 against an aggregate of every below-.500 team in baseball.

At least he keeps the clubhouse happy. Isn't that what's really important?
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#330595) #
just another game when the collection of all star talent the Jays have fails to perform.

You can't blame the manager for that, though. By all reports, his collection of All-Star talent should perform much better. After all, he leans back in his chair and mumbles to reporters about stuff!
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Magpie - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#330596) #
So now that they've been officially eliminated... oh, wait.
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Jimbag - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#330597) #
Keep flogging away, Parker, I thought I saw the horse twitch a few minutes ago.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#330598) #
When Gibbons has "managed" a team to even a single World Series title, I'll shut up. Promise.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#330599) #
We're not eliminated, it is just that it's very easy to get frustrated about how this offense performs. This year wer're smack in the middle (16th) of WPA at 2.47. Last year we were way out front at 12.5. We thought that if the Jays would get average pitching it would be enough given the strength of the offense and defense. Well they got above average pitching and the other parts of the team regressed. I don't really know why it's changed so much. Maybe it is just variance, maybe it's managing, maybe it's regression I really don't know what it is. All I know is that it's frustrating.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#330600) #
It is.

It's frustrating enough to make me want to burn all my post-'93 Blue Jays memorabilia and start wearing a fricken Chicago Cubs baseball cap.
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eudaimon - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#330601) #
They have medication for that you know
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#330602) #
You actually really don't want to get me started on Big Pharma.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#330603) #
Yay we get some runs in the ninth and get them to put their closer in. Still lose but moral victories and some stat padding I suppose. Yay.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#330604) #
This will allow us to absolve the offense of any liability for tonight's loss and place the blame on those who deserve it like the pitching, Smoak and Upton!
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#330605) #
A little fight in a ballclub is a good thing. No mercy tomorrow.
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scottt - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#330606) #
Might be a good time to try Travis in that 2-slot again.
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SK in NJ - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#330607) #
Hopefully this ends the Navarro/Estrada narrative. It should have ended already with Estrada actually performing better this season than he did last season despite ongoing back problems, but there's absolutely no need for Navarro to be his personal catcher. Just let him catch when Martin needs a breather, regardless of who is starting. Navarro is one of the worst framers in baseball. He costs the team runs on defense and isn't very good offensively. He shouldn't be looked at as being anything more than he is.

The offense is definitely an issue. Still very inconsistent and K prone. I don't know how it can be fixed other than just hoping they get hot at the right time. The talent is there, albeit a bit older, but whether they perform is the question.

If the scores hold up, the Jays will be tied for 1st in the East and the O's will be 2 back. Maybe MIke Green was on to something when he said it was too early to talk about the playoff rosters. The jinx mixed with the Tropicana Curse has angered the Gods.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#330608) #
It would indeed be nice if Travis got the extra PA batting at or near the top of the order. We might see that tomorrow.
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SK in NJ - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#330609) #
"Too much wrangling over things like Smoak and Upton and too little on the things that have really hurt, like Stromans inconsistency and the inconsistency of the offense."


All you need to do is list the players acquired by Shapiro/Atkins, and that's where most of the blame will go. The irony being that the deadline acquisitions have combined for a 0.7 WAR in one month (Benoit, Upton, Feldman, Liriano), so they haven't really been the issue, but blame has to go somewhere, and it damn sure ain't going to anyone AA signed off on!
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Kasi - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#330610) #
No no we can't criticize our all stars coming up short again in high leverage situations. We must double down on Smoak! 4 million dollars oh the waste it's going to completely cripple us for the future!

Of course looking at the young hitters the Sox and the Yankees have we might be in trouble pretty soon. Clearly we need to double down on 30+ year old hitters. They'll keep producing.
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SK in NJ - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#330611) #
Considering Smoak has barely played since the deadline, I'm not sure why he's even a talking point right now. Still, he has a 95 wRC+ this season, while Tulo's been hovering around 100 since the start of 2015. The latter is a much more pressing issue since the Jays need Tulo to hit like a star, while Smoak's been a part-time player at best. Bautista is the biggest issue right now since he hasn't been himself all season mixed with the injuries. That's hurt the Jays more than anything else this season.

The talent is there for 2016. It always has been. They just need to play to their abilities. After 2016, I share the same fears as Kasi regarding Boston and New York, but we will cross that bridge when we get there.
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Jimbag - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#330612) #
Now that the sky has fallen completely, I ask you to allow time for a little perspective: No matter what,  the Blue Jays will be in 1st place in the American League East when you go to bed tonight.
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Parker - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#330613) #
Well thank God the season ends tonight.
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Jimbag - Saturday, September 03 2016 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#330614) #
I get the feeling you're a real hit at parties.


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Parker - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#330615) #
You'd be surprised how many people still dig a guy who wears a lampshade on his head.
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ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 06:37 AM EDT (#330617) #
It must be hard to drive that way.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#330618) #
Gotta admit, I always figured complaining about your first place team is just bad karma. The universe is not amused, and often arranges a last place team for you to follow in fairly short order.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#330619) #
Getting overconfident about 100+ win totals probably doesn't help either. The team is currently on pace for 91 wins, and that's with a roster that has had unusually good health this year. It might take 93 to 96 wins to finish in first. Based on run differential, you could make a case that Boston is the favourite to win the division, but anything can happen in a month.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#330620) #
you could make a case that Boston is the favourite to win the division

I think it's a tossup. What do the standings say?

The Red Sox obviously have a much more powerful offense - they've been better with the bat than the Jays at seven of nine positions on the field, as well as DH. The Jays are a much more balanced team - if none of Toronto's starters is quite David Price (although Sanchez has done a pretty fair impression), they have more options to choose from. And closer aside, the Toronto bullpen looks quite a bit better than Boston's. (And the Jays' closer isn't chopped liver.) I always thought John Farrell was easily the worst game manager in Blue Jays history at the very least and Red Sox fans seem to agree. But all fans say that about the local manager anyway, and it's simply not important enough to prevent his team from winning a championship.

So this should be exciting.
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grjas - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#330621) #
Yes the team is inconsistent and frustrating and has been all year. On the flip side, this is only the second time in 23 years they're playing meaningful baseball in September so it's special. There is not a stat head or guru on the planet that can predict what one player will do in the next month much less a whole team. So keep the excitement coming.
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bpoz - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#330622) #
Good point grjas. It would be nice to win 90+ games. Hopefully 93 or 94.

The Sept schedule is a battle field of ALE rivals.

When we were winning 83-87 games in our non playoff streak. I used to count the consistent bad categories, where we played about .350 ball.

Inter league, NYY, Boston and TB.
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Chuck - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#330623) #
The Red Sox obviously have a much more powerful offense

I am picking Mookie Betts to be the anyone-but-Trout MVP choice this season, particularly if Boston wins the division. Anyone recall a player moving from leadoff to cleanup in the same season?

By the way, I hate the "anyone but" mentality when it comes to MVP voting. Bonds suffered through it. Trout is now riding that carousel.

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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#330624) #
Tied for first place isn't really first place. If the season ends with a tied there would be a tiebreaker game.

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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#330625) #
Anyone recall a player moving from leadoff to cleanup in the same season?

Well, Jose Bautista began 2010 as the leadoff hitter. He cycled through numerous spots in the order, including cleanup, before landing in the 3-hole for keeps around the All-Star Break.

The latter is a much more pressing issue since the Jays need Tulo to hit like a star,

That's a bit of a problem because Tulowitzki was never really a star, not with the bat anyway. He's a good hitter, a solid complementary bat. But that's all. It's just that Coors Field made him look like a star by adding 50 points to his BAVG. Exactly 50 points - in his career, he's hit .320 at Coors, .270 everywhere else.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#330626) #
Yes the team is inconsistent and frustrating and has been all year.

How so? After the usual sluggish April, they've been ridiculously consistent. They went 17-12 in May, 15-12 in June, 16-8 in July, 17-11 in August. In the worst of those months, they played .556 ball, which is a 90 win pace. For the last four months now, they've just kept rolling along, winning six games out of every ten. If that's frustrating, I gotta wonder just what your expectations were.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#330627) #
I hate the "anyone but" mentality when it comes to MVP voting.

Willie Mays won two MVP awards. I'm not a big fan of WAR, but for those who are, Willie led the NL nine times in twelve seasons, while generally towering over the league like Gulliver amongst the little people. Two MVP awards, eleven years apart.
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#330628) #
"....after the Jays fire him and he can't find a job anywhere above Double-A...."

Parker, I assume you're probably just trolling us, trying to get a reaction.  But if this is seriously your prediction, can't we now just quietly wait for a few years and see whether it's true, and THEN discuss it?  No need to repeat it 10 times a day, especially since you're not adding any new empirical data, aside from empty sarcasm.  Repetition isn't a recipe for credibility -- it's just tedious.  
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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#330629) #
"That's a bit of a problem because Tulowitzki was never really a star, not with the bat anyway. He's a good hitter, a solid complementary bat. But that's all. It's just that Coors Field made him look like a star by adding 50 points to his BAVG. Exactly 50 points - in his career, he's hit .320 at Coors, .270 everywhere else."


Tulo definitely benefitted from Coors, but his wRC+ during his Colorado days (which is park adjusted) was star level most years. When the Jays acquired him, he was hitting .300/.348/.471, but his wRC+ was pretty much average (103), so it accurately rated him as an average offensive player, which is what he has been since acquired by the Jays.

The issue is, the Jays need him, and likely acquired him, to hit like pre-2015 Tulo. If he doesn't, then you're looking at an average offensive SS with very good defense. That's a good player, maybe a WAR around 2.5 (give or take), but not a star. When you factor that the Jays will be paying him $78M from ages 32-35 when his decline seems to have already started, it's a bit of a concern.

Donaldson has been MVP calibre all season. Encarnacion has been very good all season. Martin has been good since May-ish. It is Bautista and Tulo that need to reach another gear in this final month.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#330630) #
Navarro DHing and batting cleanup today against Archer. This time I'll just laugh.
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ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#330631) #
while generally towering over the league like Gulliver amongst the little people

Or as Bill James put it in describing Joe Morgan's 75/76 seasons, like Babe Ruth in a Babe Ruth league.

SK is right. Tulo's Toronto production isn't simply a park-adjusted version of his halcyon days with the Rockies. He'd significantly declined offensively (leaving aside his injury woes) when Colorado unloaded his contract on Toronto. He's a sharp defensive upgrade over the guy we had, but he's not the park-adjusted version of the player he once was in Colorado. Unfortunately, he's paid for a number of years as though he is.

I've been at both games in Tampa. From my perspective, both partially fell apart on errors (Friday Travis', Saturday Estrada's) and lack of BAVG. Toronto also happened to drill balls to the deepest parts of the field last night. And until the ninth inning last night, the usual failure to accumulate more than a hit an inning. I listened to Jays Talk one night last week (my mistake) while M. Wilner explained that hitting with men in scoring position is simply a 'fluke', because it's not a 'repeatable skill'. Lost seemed to be that hitting with men in scoring position is largely a sub-factor of hitting itself. Toronto ranks 12th of 15 teams in BAVG since the break, and middle of the pack in runs. Last year, when it outscored everyone by a mile, Toronto hit .274 after the break, neck and neck atop the AL with the Red Sox .275. This year its the Red Sox who are outscoring everyone by a mile and who are outhitting the Jays .278 to .242 since the break.

Last night was also the 8th loss in a row in 8 road games where they have failed to hit a home run. It's a narrow offensive path for the team it seems to me, either they are going to hit a lot of bombs, a a large portion of which seem to be solo shots, or they are going to lose. The offence doesn't have a lot else in the way of dimension.

On the upside, we have 6 games left with Boston. So Toronto has its future this year in its own hands. I don't share the views of some about Boston's pitching. Their top 3 - Porcello/Price/Pomeranz - are fairly good. Their bullpen is much better than we've benefitted from seeing (Abad has never been this bad to my knowledge, and Kimbrel is back).
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Kasi - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#330632) #
Lol that's just too funny, CF you even have to admit that batting Navarro at DH and at cleanup (especially cleanup) is just a bit umm odd. I dislike Gibbons but not nearly as much as some do here, but this is just wtf.
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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#330633) #
Gibbons the sabermetrics guru at it again with Navarro at DH and now batting cleanup ahead of Martin, Tulo, Saunders, and Travis.

This would be funny if the Jays were not in a pennant race during what figures to be the peak of their competitive window with this core.
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Kasi - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#330634) #
Actually I like Gibbons, I just don't think he's a good manager. I do enjoy listening to him talk and think he's a funny guy.
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92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#330635) #
There's little harm in switching around the order to try and spark an offense that has looked terrible the last two games. I'm aware it's been only 25 PA, but Navarro is the one hitter in the lineup who hasn't sucked thus far vs. Archer, and he's taken good ABs since coming over to Toronto in the trade.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#330636) #
Navarro has great stats vs Archer. Batting 318 with 2 HR in 22 ABs (easily the best looking stats of any Blue Jay vs Archer btw). The offense is struggling a bit, so why not shake it up a bit? I like the move.

Also, I think the misconception here is that the DH spot should only be used to give regular players a day off from the field. However it can also be used to get a specific bat in the lineup.

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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#330637) #
At this point, I just hope any decision Gibbons makes, whether I agree with it or not, just works out.

Although, I must admit I now miss Josh Thole as the primary back-up catcher. At least he only played once a week.
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92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#330638) #
As opposed to other times in the season when you hope the manager's decisions fail so you can feel vindicated about your opinion?
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#330639) #
It may be that some of the Jays regulars are starting to burn a bit low late in the season, although Bautista and Pillar did have some extra rest while they were on the DL. The Red Sox may have an edge over the Jays in terms of reserve energy, as several of their core position players (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ) are in their early 20s. And judging by the amount of padding and armouring being worn by several Toronto players at the plate and on the basepaths, the Jays might be a bit banged up as a group.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#330640) #
"The issue is, the Jays need him, and likely acquired him, to hit like pre-2015 Tulo. If he doesn't, then you're looking at an average offensive SS with very good defense. That's a good player, maybe a WAR around 2.5 (give or take), but not a star."

I don't know whether it's ignorance or dishonesty with your takes, but there's a whole lotta GIVE to your estimate there, and no take.

A good defensive SS with an average bat is a very good player, and anyone who understands WAR would known that's considerabjy more than a 2.5war player.

For example, in 146 games with the Jays, Tulo has been worth 3.4fwar and 3.7bwar.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#330641) #
"Yes the team is inconsistent and frustrating and has been all year."

The only thing frustrating about the team has been their consistency imo - they's been unable to put together a truly hot streak all year.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#330643) #
Gibby's innovation pays off already
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Jimbag - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#330644) #
"Hopefully this ends the Navarro/Estrada narrative."

Based on the performance of one inning? I don't want to work for you.

Anyway, Gibbons isn't shoving his mensa membership card under anyone's nose. He's not the sharpest tactician, in my opinion, but his decisions seem to "work out" fairly often. For all some people would like to denigrate his abilities as a "man manager", there are people inside those suits. If Estrada prefers Navarro behind the plate for his starts, so be it...or at least let it be until it actually does prove out to be a bad pairing. One inning may be a little quick to jump to that conclusion, though.
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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#330645) #
I hope Navarro can be keep trolling us for the rest of the season since he's probably going to play a lot.
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Kasi - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#330646) #
Travis needs to up his defensive game. Too many gaffes recently.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#330647) #
I think the Navarro / Estrada thing was overblown, but they do seem to work well together and we might as work them together to give Russell a break.

Travis has been struggling a bit defensively lately. Hopefully he can figure it out, like Tulo did after his bad stretch a while back.

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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#330648) #
So the people who dislike Gibbons believe they have finally found their smoking-gun proof:  Navarro's presence in the DH spot.

The fact that Navarro has a .976 career OPS against Archer is irrelevant to the Gibbons haters.  And the fact that Navarro already has 3 hits in 10 innings as DH seems to be irrelevant to the Gibbons haters too.   They insist the decision is laughable, so we're supposed to accept their opinion. 

The larger point is this:  Shapiro and Atkins were fully aware that Gibbons has often played Navarro at DH.  They were aware of that when they acquired Navarro this season, and they could have easily told Gibbons not to play him at DH if they disagreed with him.  In fact they could have listened to the Gibby haters and fired the manager in April as the detractors were demanding.  They didn't do so, and they didn't instruct Gibbons not to put Navarro at DH, so at this point it's clearly a consensus decision from Shapiro and Atkins as well as Gibbons.  If they felt he was making "laughable" decisions, they could have easily overruled him, or gotten rid of him long ago.  So, instead of pretending that Gibbons operates in a vacuum, please direct your ire equally at the front office -- if you still feel that it was a huge mistake to have Navarro at DH, despite his hits.

Personally, given how awful the hitting has been recently from Bautista and the other top hitters, I've got no problem with Gibbons deciding to shake things up a little by putting Navarro at DH.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#330649) #
I think Navarro's numbers vs Archer are reason enough to play him. The offense has sucked recently, and the numbers of the rest of the regulars against him are just plain ugly.

Last time he DH'ed was questionable (I personally think it was fine / pretty neutral) but this time makes a lot of sense.

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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#330651) #
"Gibbons the sabermetrics guru at it again with Navarro at DH and now batting cleanup ahead of Martin, Tulo, Saunders, and Travis."

This is the kind of comment that always makes me laugh. A criticism which claims the fan is more sabrmetrically knowledgeable than the manager, using an example which proves the opposite.

Because yes, sabermetrics tell us quite clearly that batting order is near meaningless even in the long run where we ignore individual matchups, let alone in individual games or matchups. And any manager who understands those numbers knows that they should never be the driving force behind his lineuo construction.

It is exactly the reason why a saber friendly manager like Maddon has trotted out all sorts of crazy looking lineups over the years using bench guys in "key" slots ahead of his good hitters, and why a manager like Farrell wouldn't dream of it.

If you want to criticize the move, that's fine, but suggesting that a saber friendly manager is the guy who would never try it is obviously wrong.
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Kasi - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#330653) #
Not sure where your numbers for Tulo from uo. Last year Tulo had 1.2 fwar before the trade, 1.1 after. This year he's at 2 which leaves him at 3.1 fwar over those 146 games played (not including playoffs)
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#330654) #
And I bet you Maddon also used Navarro at cleanup in tampa.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#330655) #
you should doublecheck your numbers Kasi. mine are correct.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#330656) #
Happ just doesn't really have it right now. He can't put anyone away. And now he gets the hook without finishing the 3rd - probably a good thing.
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Cracka - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#330657) #
To pitch that poorly and only allow 3 runs is a good thing. Our best bullpen arms are rested, so it will likely be Barnes (1+ inning), Feldman (2 inning), Benoit/Grilli/Osuna from here on in... still a winable game, which it might not have been if Happ had stayed in much longer.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#330659) #
I like Danny Barnes. Seems to have good command, pitches down in the zone, a bit of movement on his pitches. He might be an effective reliever, but only time will tell.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#330660) #
"It may be that some of the Jays regulars are starting to burn a bit low late in the season, although Bautista and Pillar did have some extra rest while they were on the DL. The Red Sox may have an edge over the Jays in terms of reserve energy, as several of their core position players (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ) are in their early 20s. And judging by the amount of padding and armouring being worn by several Toronto players at the plate and on the basepaths, the Jays might be a bit banged up as a group."


2nd half wrc+

Martin (33) 156 --- Betts (23) 165
Donaldson (30) 146 - Pedroia (32) 148
En'cion (33) 138 --- Leon (27) 138
Travis (25) 119 ---- Ramirez (32) 131
Tulo (31) 104 ------ Ortiz (40) 130
Bautista (35) 98 --- Bogaerts (23) 91
Smoak (29) 91 ------ Bradley (26) 88
Saunders (29) 87 --- Holt (28) 82
Pillar (27) 63 ----- Shaw (26) 76

Barney (30) 62 ----- Benintendi (21) 122
Navarro (32) 46 ---- Young (32) 90
Upton (31) 41 ------ Hill (34) 36
Carrera (29) -32 --- Holaday (28) -19

aside from betts, it's been the old guys carrying Boston's offense lately, while the kids have struggled.
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obo - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#330663) #
Home plate ump having a terrible game.  Calls all over the place.  Seems to be messing up both teams equally, at least.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#330664) #
Joe Maddon says the Cubs will go with a six man rotation when John Lackey comes off the DL.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#330665) #
Navarro is responsible for 2 of our current 5 runs.
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dan gordon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#330666) #
Every time I see stats that show a particular player is in the lineup because he's hit well against the opposing starter in say, 20 AB's or some such thing, I wonder if that small a sample size is really indicative that the player truly does have the ability to hit that particular pitcher better, and will continue to hit well against him, or if it is just random noise. Given how many lineup decisions (such as today's with Navarro) are made based on these small sized pitcher/batter matchup stats, I'm very surprised that nobody has done a significant study to test this. How well do batters hit against pitchers in future AB's after producing good numbers against that pitcher in a small sample? You could use 20 AB's or something like that as your cutoff for inclusion in the study.

I have long suspected that it's just random noise, but this season, I have seen several instances of a player being mentioned as having hit a particular pitcher well in the past, and he has gone on to hit well in that game, and here is another example today with Navarro getting a hit against Archer. Maybe there is something to it.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#330667) #
For what it's worth, the Coors effect on Tulowitzki was all BAVG, which also gave a big boost to his OBP and Slug as BAVG is the biggest component of each. He didn't get any other benefit from altitude. In his career, he's hit .270/.342/.460 at sea level. The park adjustment here is the purest possible - just eliminating every game played at Coors Field.

So his average season would be the slash numbers above - .270/.342/.460 - with 26 HR and 84 RBI. Which is really not that far from what he's done for Toronto this season, and certainly it's mighty, mighty good for a shortstop who plays such fine defense. If it's your idea of a star hitter, that's cool.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#330668) #
I think it's a bit of both Dan. There's no way to say for sure whether 20 ABs represent a trend or an anomaly, but it's certainly true that some batters "see" certain pitchers very well or very poorly. The only way to find out is to give that player more ABs and see if the trend continues or diminishes.

I think the "three true outcomes" can help identify whether the stats are the basis of a trend or just an anomaly. In the case of Navarro vs Archer, before this game he had struck out in 3 of 25 plate appearances (pretty low, especially vs a strikeout guy like Archer), he walked three times (about average), and has hit two home runs (very much above average). To me those stats say that he's more likely seeing the ball well than just getting lucky. I think it was a very good move by Gibbons to shake things up a bit and bat him cleanup, and thought not all good decisions work out (it's still baseball, after all) this one certainly has.

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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#330669) #
I wonder if that small a sample size is really indicative that the player truly does have the ability to hit that particular pitcher better, and will continue to hit well against him, or if it is just random noise.

Sample sizes are funny. We can certainly say the sample is too small once we've actually identified the point where the numbers behave in a predictable fashion. For a group of one-run games, for example, I think the required sample is a little more than 1000 games.

The thing about batter-pitcher matchups is that the sample size is never going to be large enough to reach whatever point is required, and so we don't really have a clue what that point might be. How would we ever know? It's very unusual for a batter to face a pitcher 100 times in his career. And that's a huge problem, because it's blindingly obvious that a hitter is going to find batting against some pitchers much more congenial than others. Irrespective of the pitcher's quality.

I've always suspected that at this point the matchups simply tells us who has the initial advantage. And that one might assume that given time, and enough at bats, whoever is having trouble with the matchup would eventually figure out the proper adjustment, and the numbers would level out. But that's just an assumption, and while there's certainly enough time for that to happen, there aren't enough at bats. Roy Halladay pitched against Johnny Damon for ten years - which is a pretty long time - and Damon hit him just as well at the end as he ever did.
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Michael - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#330670) #
Dan, they have and it largely shows what you'd expect: That matchups are highly overrated.

From The Book (Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman) "We’re not saying that it doesn’t matter which pitcher is facing which hitter. …However, you can’t tell by looking at the numbers from twenty-five or sixty plate appearances. There is simply too much noise masking the truth under those numbers" from a study that looked at all batter/pitcher with good splits before a certain point in time, and then showed no predictive nature after the point in time.

Also http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15362

and others.

What matters most is how good the batter and pitcher are in general, not opposite each other. And then what matters next is things like handedness. Both of these are way more predictive than individual matchups.
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Mike D - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#330671) #
Tip of the cap to the bullpen for that game. Crucial game and a series of big relief performances.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#330672) #
Jays still mired in first place.
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Jimbag - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#330673) #
Hope nobody's still pooping silly string after the big comeback win.
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#330674) #
Okay, I will question one Gibbons decision today: why Carrera instead of Ceciliani as the defensive replacement at RF in the 9th inning?  Ceciliani should be better defensively than Carrera, no?

Having said that, I do remember Ceciliani making a terrible error in his first game for the Jays this year, allowing a bouncing grounder to skip past him for a multi-run error.  But in general, I thought Ceciliani was better defensively than Carrera?  I could be wrong.

On that collision in the 9th inning, Carrera seemed to have a better chance at the ball than Pillar, who would have been forced to dive for the ball, so Pillar should have deferred to Carrera, but there's no indication that either of them called for the ball.  If that's correct, they both made a mistake by failing to communicate.  It could have been a very serious blunder if Pillar had been injured.  He seems to be okay.

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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#330675) #
And just to continue the thought:  why not switch Pompey from DH to RF?  It means that the Jays "lose" the DH but they could simply use pinch-hitters in the DH spot in the unlikely scenario of the game going to extra innings.   If you're replacing Bautista for defensive purposes in the 9th inning, when there are 3 options available (Ceciliani, Pompey, Carrera) it would seem best to go with the best defender, which would be Pompey.
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dan gordon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#330676) #
Thanks, Michael, that's an interesting study. I guess the question then, is why do baseball managers still make lineup decisions based on these small sample batter/pitcher numbers when the facts indicate their predictive value of future performance is near zero. Somebody needs to pass the word around.

Former Jay Kendall Graveman has a chance to help his former team. He's starting today against the BoSox, and so far so good after 3 scoreless innings. Graveman has been very good in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 0.813.

Danny Barnes looks better than in his first call up. Not giving up as many hard hit balls. This is the kind of thing I was hoping to see, based on his amazing numbers in the minors.
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Alex Obal - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#330677) #
Seems like a suitable time to throw out a link to Ken Arneson's 10 Things I Believe. Still my favorite baseball article in recent memory.

Nice win.
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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#330678) #
I don't know.

Many batters gets through slumps and hot periods.
Would Russell Martin have won this game for the Jays if it had been played in April? I doubt it.

Also, it seems obvious that a good fastball hitter will do better against a guy who throws  a lot of fastballs than against a guy who throws only junk. If a guy doesn't have the bat speed to square against a 98 mph pitch on the outside corner, does it matter how well he hits the league average 92 mph ones?

What gets dicey is the players who simply can track the ball well when thrown by a specific pitcher and less so when thrown by another one.

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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#330679) #
Near zero maybe, zero no. Really, there's no way to know. And in certain situations, like when your team isn't hitting well and no one else is obviously better you might as well give it a shot. Who would you have batted instead of Navarro? And why would you choose them over a guy with good stats against that pitcher?

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92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#330680) #
The Jays coaching staff must not agree with the assertion that Pompey is a better defender than Carrera, or at least believes that the difference is marginal enough that the DH wasn't worth losing, extended bench or not. It's not like the reports coming out of Buffalo all year were gushing about Pompey's defensive ability. I suspect we'll see Pompey play some defense over the course of the month so Gibby can know what he has in Dalton before the playoffs, but right now he's happy to have Pompey excel at what he does best as a PR and go with what he knows in Carrera in corner for an inning.

Ceciliani shouldn't be considered for anything unless the team is deep into an extra innings game.
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dan gordon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#330681) #
eudaimon - did you read the article that Michael linked? It really is non-predictive except for extreme cases, like where somebody is hitting .500+ against a pitcher, and even then it's very close to zero effect. It's great to have some actually facts rather than just people saying, "well I think this or I believe that".
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#330682) #
".... Our best bullpen arms are rested, so it will likely be Barnes (1+ inning), Feldman (2 inning), Benoit/Grilli/Osuna from here on in... still a winable game...."

Pretty good prediction, and nearly completely accurate, from a moment in the game when the Jays looked to be in serious trouble.  The Jays didn't have great pitching from the rotation in this series, but the bullpen really bailed them out today.   Barnes, in particular, really saved the team today.  I'm excited to see what he can do for the rest of this season and next season. 
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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#330683) #

I don't think that answers the actual question. If the two batters are close in ability, then yes, it seems like a good idea to use the one who is extremely successful against this pitcher. The only conclusion I see is that 100 plate appearances is too small a sample to tell us anything.

I think 10 PAs is valuable only if the result is extreme. like 3 homeruns batting .600.
At 25, 5 homeruns, .500 average, etc...

Obviously, a lot of that is trying to get into the mind of the pitcher.
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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#330684) #
"We can conclude that one plate appearance against a specific pitcher is slightly more predictive than a plate appearance against any pitcher at all."

Dan, it never says that batter vs pitcher data is totally worthless. Just that general batter data is much more valuable in general. And I would agree with that. No one's arguing for Ryan Goins over Jose Bautista here. What we're debating is basically Navarro over anyone on the bench, so basically: Barney, Smoak, Upton, Carrera, Goins and so on. And versus those guys I'd say that Navarro is about as good a bet in general as any of them in terms of offense. Given the small sample size that states that he hits Archer better than anyone on the team, I'd say he was a better bet.

Also, the existence on one article doesn't mean the discussion of the issue is dead forever. If that were true we'd still be practicing phrenology. From my view it's possible that the trend might only exist when the sample size is still small. Magpie gives a good example here in mentioning the importance of adjustments in the game. Maybe it's as simple as Chris Archer not being able to figure out how to pitch to Navarro yet. Will he in time? Quite possibly, and in that case the stats will regress. But the current stats may reflect the fact that Navarro currently has the advantage, and thus the team might benefit by playing him over roughly equal or inferior alternatives. I have no idea if anyone ever studied that, or if it's even possible. Needless to say, I don't think that article is the be all end all of the issue.

Not knowing whether something is statistical noise or a real trend is part of the mystery of the game. We'll probably never understand the game fully, and that's part of what makes it so great.

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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#330685) #
wrc+ does a pretty good job of encapsulating the park factors, one of the reasons why it's the only stat really worth using in my opinion. it also adjusts for league offense which have had dramatic up and downs during the past few years.

So Tulo's career home .928ops converts to a 126wrc+ thanks to the coors effect, and his career road .806ops converts to a 115wrc+, and that difference is as close as most other road/home career splits.

What we're hoping for is Tulo at least approaching that career road mark of 115wrc+, and with his glove that would make him an easy 4-5 win type player. And after his awful start he had actually climbed all the way back up to that level just a couple weeks ago (iirc he reached 113wrc+) before his little funk hit the last couple weeks. He's at 104 right now so he'z a bit below that and has to get back on his horse.to get back to that career level by the end of the season
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#330686) #
A related question might be:  should the lineup be influenced by the "hot hand" of certain hitters?  If someone like Upton has a .900 OPS over his past 10 games, and someone like Saunders has a .600 OPS over his past 10 games, if all other factors are equal, should you put Upton in the lineup instead of Saunders?  A hitting "streak", like a match-up against a specific pitcher, would be a small sample size.  If other factors are equal, do you favor the hot-hitting hitter, ahead of someone who might have a somewhat higher season mark or career mark?  These are all the complexities that a manager has to grapple with daily, and I doubt anyone gets it right all the time.
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#330687) #
Pretty good game happening in Oakland, you might want to check it out for several reasons...
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Michael - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#330688) #
No, the hot hand doesn't exist (at least not in a predictive going forward sense) and you shouldn't "play the streak". The cold hand can sometimes exist if it is due to a change in ability due to (possibly undisclosed) injury.

Of course the larger the sample size on a player the less we should care about the streak. Some young player who has never had much time in the majors before, then the recent hot streak is much more of their experience, and is regressed less, and more likely to be a true talent level.
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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#330689) #
I like the Oakland result, at any rate.
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#330690) #
The Red Sox lose their no-hitter and lose their game.  Jays now in sole possession of first place again, and 3 games ahead of Baltimore and Detroit for the final playoff spot.
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ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#330691) #
The highs and lows of the pennant race from one day to the next. While a big division lead would be nice, I'll still take this over playing out the string in fourth or fifth place. Bring on the Yankees ! By the way, speaking of hot streaks,Logan Forsythe had himself quite a series this weekend.
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China fan - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#330692) #
And speaking of "cold streaks," the top 3 hitters in the Jays lineup have been as cold as ice in the past 3 games.  They are due to bust out very soon -- they're too good to keep hitting badly.  Let's hope it begins Monday in the Yankees series.
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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#330693) #
I like to look at it the other way and assume that there is no true talent level. Performance, at least in a predictive sense, is determined by a large number of random factors, many of which cannot be factored in. The expected outcome of a give PA is influenced by what the hitter is trying to accomplish, what the pitcher/catcher have decided to throw, how the defense is positioned, how the umpire is calling the strike zone, etc...  We just measure the performance, average it, normalize it, and try to ignore the variations as long as we can...

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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#330694) #
Ryan Goins is 9-23 with .913 OPS against Clay Buchholz in his career. If the Jays happen to face Buchholz next week, would it be smart for Goins to be DH and bat 4th?

Sample size with batters against a particular pitcher are usually pretty hit or miss. It becomes more meaningful as the sample increases, much like everything else, but at the end of the day isn't it more logical to look at talent above small sample sizes? Archer was not going to pitch the entire game, so Navarro was going to get AB's ahead of Martin, Tulo, Saunders, and Travis all game. It did not hurt today, but if you stick a bad hitter in that spot most nights, then it's not going to lead to good results. Especially when the offense is as inconsistent as the Jays have been, and every run is so valuable now.

If Gibbons wanted Navarro to start today because of previous success against Archer, then fine, but why batting 4th? Why is Travis batting last? If John Farrell were doing something like this, everyone would be taking turns laughing at him and the Red Sox.

Anyway, getting a win and leaving Tampa with a one game lead on the division is fine with me. No more games in that stadium is certainly a good thing. Last season the Jays ended their season at the Trop; let's be thankful that isn't the case this season.
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scottt - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#330695) #
Funny how that article was framed around Edwin Jackson who will be facing Boston tomorrow.
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dan gordon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#330696) #
The BP article states that their analysis shows the last 3 years overall performance data of the hitter and the pitcher is 67 times as predictive of how well the hitter will perform than the previous AB's for that hitter against that pitcher. So close to zero that it's splitting hairs to say it's not zero.

I've heard previously that the "hot streak" business doesn't work either. I believe Bill James did a study on that showing that batters who were "hot" did not on average perform any better than batters who were not.
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Gerry - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#330697) #
Ben Wagner, the Buffalo broadcaster, on a recent Around the Nest, said that Pompey's defense was not as good as advertised. He said Pompey had made a number of mental errors. That could be why Carrera went in.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#330698) #
Navarro was hitting 4th to split up all the righties. Travis hits 9th to get some obp ahead of the untraditional top of the lineup.

the difference between hitting 4th and 7th, or 9th and 6th, is just as statistically insignificant as batter/pitcher head to head splits.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#330699) #
and I can only imagine the criticism of gibbons if he had actually tossed away the DH spot in a close game instead of using his overdeep september bench.
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Hodgie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#330700) #
From the MLB recap of today's game:

Some of the credit for this victory also goes to Gibbons, even though he was long gone by the time Toronto rallied from two runs down in the seventh. Martin appeared to be on the verge of getting ejected by home-plate umpire Pat Hoberg in the top of the fourth inning for arguing a called third strike call when Gibbons intervened.

Gibbons stepped to the top of the dugout and started arguing with Hoberg and was quickly tossed from the game. That took the attention away from Toronto's starting catcher, who otherwise would have been at risk for a quick hook from the game.

"It just shows that he has our back, and that's all you can ask from your manager," Martin said. "He kind of just weathered the storm a little bit, took the heat for everybody. I think he kept some guys in the game doing that, including myself."

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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#330701) #
In the end I just don't really think the manager has that much control over anything. Sabremetric analyses have shown that batting order doesn't really matter all that much in terms of scoring runs, so does it even matter if Navarro batting cleanup for one game isn't ideal?

Luck plays a huge role in baseball. As such, a terrible decision can sometimes work out, while a great decision can fail. Even with all the research that has gone into the game in recent years we don't know anything about a lot of things, and we certainly can't predict the future.

I guess that's why I like the Navarro move, because why not? I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but it was worth a shot. Gibbons is unlikely to affect the game in any way regardless, and he figured he'd try something different with a tough pitcher on the mound, especially considering the Jays offensive performance of late. And it worked, not that it really proves it was a good decision to start.

For all the complaints against Navarro DHing, it should be noted that the Jays are 2-0 in the games that he has DHed in, and he has contributed in both those games. Small sample size, obviously. But it goes to show that even if using Navarro at DH is a poor decision, that it seems to have not had much of an effect on the actual games. In short, a decision like this really isn't the end of the world that it's sometimes made out to be.

Anyways, that's the last I'll say on that topic for now.



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eudaimon - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#330702) #
And yes, Gibby showed good awareness there by starting a fight with the umpire. If Martin gets ejected we probably lose the game.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 04 2016 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#330703) #
I think we always have to guard against the tendency to dismiss things that we don't know how to measure, or that we don't have sufficient data to measure to our satisfaction, or that resist the whole notion of being measured. We need to Respect the Fog, and lots of the game is shrouded in the stuff. Kind of like life. Just because we don't have a good way to measure, oh, the effect a catcher has on his pitcher's performance doesn't mean the effect doesn't exist.
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scottt - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#330704) #
I've heard previously that the "hot streak" business doesn't work either. I believe Bill James did a study on that showing that batters who were "hot" did not on average perform any better than batters who were not.

I don't think that's it at all.

I'm sure those study don't compare a hot hitter who is hitting .300 for the year to a cold hitter who is hitting .200.
Those study will try to compare hitters with similar stats, but a hot hitter will often have higher stats than a cold one if they went through a hot streak that lasted a month. What the study is really saying is that a hot hitter will come back to earth at some point and nobody can predict when. How often does a team have 2 players of similar skill level, one on a hot streak and one on a cold one, to choose from?

Who are the hot streak/cold streak hitters on the Jays?
Barney and Goins? Barney had a hot streak that lasted 2 month. Goins has been cold all year, but played well at AAA. At this point, playing Barney is not exploiting the hot streak. It's just rewarding performance.

Martin was cold in April up to Mid-May, but Thole has been cold for years.
Thole was originally a hitting catcher with average defensive skills.
There's no contest for playing time here.

Smoak and various outfielders?
Smoak has been cold all year, so it's a tad late for him to get more playing time.
Navarro isn't on a hot streak, but he's a left bat and Smoak has mostly been used against lefties lately.
Carrera had a hot streak in which he played well. It's over and he's a defensive replacement.
Upton is on a cold streak, but he's got power and speed and demonstrated success, so the Jays stick to him because of his defense.
Saunders had a hot streak and a cold streak and is in neither right now, but he needs regular rest because of his knee.
Pillar takes the field on defense alone.
The other outfielders don't have enough established performance to expect anything. You can only hope.
The smart thing is to play matchups and rest the players who need it.



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China fan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#330705) #
"....I can only imagine the criticism of gibbons if he had actually tossed away the DH spot in a close game instead of using his overdeep september bench...."

What exactly is an "overdeep" bench?  You think there are too many players on the roster now?  I'm not sure if there's any disadvantage to having lots of bench options in September.  It can only help.

You're definitely right that some people will criticize anything, so I'm sure there would have been criticism if Gibbons switched Pompey from DH to RF.  But for myself, I don't really see the issue.  He doesn't "throw away" the DH -- he just has to put in a pinch hitter every 3 innings when the DH spot comes up.  In September, with lots of players on the bench, it should be easy to find a fresh pinch-hitter every 3 innings, even in the unlikely scenario that the Rays scored exactly 2 runs and the game went to extra innings.

Gerry's point about Pompey's defensive shortcomings is probably the best explanation.  And I think 92-93 made a similar point.  His point that Gibby prefers the familiarity of the player that he's had all year (Carrera) is probably accurate.

My only point is that the Jays now have 7 outfielders on the major-league roster, and they still don't have a classic defense-first outfielder available to boost the defence in the 9th inning.  Well, they sort of have one (Upton), but he will often be unavailable because he's already in the outfield. 

Alternatively maybe Carrera is not quite as bad as we have assumed, but I'm not sure if people are going to agree with that.

In any event, it's certainly a relatively minor issue.  But I do find it interesting that Pompey is not seen as the defensive solution for late innings.
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China fan - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#330706) #
By the way, the Buffalo season ends today.  I assume we'll see Loup and Schultz promoted after today's game.  And it would be the last chance for another hitter to be promoted.  Burns? Montero? Probably unlikely.  I like the Tellez idea, but that would also be rather unconventional thinking.
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greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#330707) #
The Jays get the Yankees and Tanaka today, while the Red Sox face the Padres and Edwin Jackson. This would be a good day for both Dickey and the Jays' offense to put their best foot forward.
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Mike Green - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#330708) #
Courtesy of Wikileaks:

Minutes of the RCS meeting of September 4, 2016

Resolutions

1. Moved by member emeritus Gibbons and seconded by member Navarro that foul territory with 50 feet radius of home plate be reduced by 20% for the 2017 season.  Additional revenue opportunities were discussed.  PASSED.
2. Moved by member Navarro and seconded by member emeritus Gibbons that 25% of the designated hitter appearances in major league baseball be reserved for members of the Society.  MLB's human rights obligations were discussed.  PASSED

Notices

3. The debate on Monday September 5, 2016 has been relocated to the Food Court at the Canadian National Exhibition.  The topic is "KD- basic staple or undervalued superfood?"
4. Nominations for the Lombardi award will be received until October 5, 2016.



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92-93 - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#330714) #
Dickey has very good numbers against the current Yankees team, which is why you're seeing Teixeira and McCann on the bench. I assume we'll see Liriano face Ellsbury-Gardner at some point, as Gibby continues to experiment.

If the Jays can win the series in NY it will have been a very successful 5-4 road trip. It may not feel this way in the standings, but I like that BOS is getting their remaining west coast road trip out of the way now, setting up only divisional games for them the rest of the way once they are done with the Padres. They will have 10 home games and 16 road games remaining compared to the Jays' 13 and 13, and the Jays will still have 7 games vs. LAA and SEA, albeit on the road.
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scottt - Monday, September 05 2016 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#330715) #
Travis bumped to lead off. I was expecting him to bat second but giving more RBI opportunity to  Bautista is not a bad idea.

Tulo has the day off and Barney bats 9th.
I prefer that to Thole turning the lineup over.

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