Beat-up little seagull on a marble stair
Tryin' to find the ocean
Lookin' everywhere

Hard times in the city
in a hard town by the sea
Ain't nowhere to run to
There ain't nothin' here for free

Hooker on the corner waitin' for a train
Drunk lyin' on the sidewalk
Sleepin' in the rain

And they hide their faces
And they hide their eyes
'Cause the city's dyin'
And they don't know why

Oh, Baltimore
Man, it's hard just to live

In other news, John Gibbons sent Mark Buehrle a text saying "Hey, rosters expand in September."
Buehrle texted back a picture of a lake.

A bonus No-Prize Point* for each of the following: the song to which the title of this thread refers, the artist, and the album.

I'm an old guy, so won't answer because it's too easy. You might want to limit this to the younger demographic at this site, just so there's a hope that this is a challenge.

I was about to answer, but I'm an old guy too, and I also thought it was easy.

I wish Gene Wilder were from Baltimore so I'd have a legit reason to cite his passing. He's not, but that ain't stopping me. Farewell, Gene.

Beat-up little seagull on a marble stair

Sing it Randy.

The Orioles 1-5 since the ASG:

Schoop .236/.263/.406
Kim .298/.365/.394
Machado .290/.330/.556
Trumbo .184/.262/.447
Davis .196/.315/.435

If the Jays pitchers limit their walks this series, I'm pretty confident the team will take at least 2 out of 3. Their starters may be able to survive when the Jays are shorthanded, but with a healthy squad and a Saunders-Barney-Carrera-Navarro bench it really feels like this team is ready to roll. My only cause for concern is that Grilli has pitched in 3 of the last 4 and Osuna in 2 straight, so Gibby will not have his best relievers available to him in each game of the series and will have to manage through that. To give you a sense of how things have been going for the Orioles, Showalter used Britton in a 5-0 game the day before this series began, probably because he needed a tune up.

So we're back to Travis in the 9-hole. Not a fan. If he's not batting leadoff, how about 6th?

I'll also disqualify myself for the No Prize as I don't make the age barrier.

But the Baltimore song that came to my mind was "Streets of Baltimore" I know the Gram Parsons version (with Emmylou Harris). A very rare video of the two of them performing live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjsL1OTHv7U

Not a TV watcher, so never seen the Wire, but I just learned that Parsons' version was used on the show. The song has been recorded by a bunch of singers.

Bonus question for the old folks. Who sang the backup vocals?

Prince did a song about Freddie Gray called Baltimore.

Wire quote: it''s all in the game.

Tonight's theme song will be Mo' Outfield Blues by the Nolan Reimold trio, featuring Hyun Soo Kim in quicksand in left, Mark Trumbo in quicksand in right, and the eponymous Reimold in quicksand in center.

Tonight's advice, presumably being administered as we speak by noted reliever whisperer, Troy Tulowitzki: "psst, let's not hit ground balls tonight."

No Adam Jones tonight. He's also missed the past few games with a hamstring issue.

Bonus question for the old folks. Who sang the backup vocals?

The Pips? The Shondells? The Experience? The MGs? The Belmonts? The Pacemakers? The Mindbenders? The Comets? The Imperials?

Am I getting close?

Or must I relinquish my empty box from the Minnesota series in payment for so many poor guesses?

who sang the backup vocals

That's good and obscure. The two guys were named Howard Kaylan and Mark Volman, but they were generally known as...

They sang on some much bigger hits, of course.

"Streets of Baltimore" I know the Gram Parsons version

I surprise myself by thinking of the Randy Newman tune first, being a Parsons fanboy. And now I'm remembering something about a lady came from Baltimore - might have been Tim Hardin.

Be nice to win this one quick. I want to watch Blazing Saddles again.

The song I know that reference Baltimore is from the Sisters of Mercy.

The two guys were named Howard Kaylan and Mark Volman, but they were generally known as...

The Almondillos. So my smarmy answers were at least of the appropriate vintage!

Melvin Upton has a pretty decent vertical leap.

The strike zone is a wee bit absurd this evening.

Oh, I missed this. Choo Choo Coleman, one of the legendary 1962 Mets, passed away a couple of weeks ago. His major league career was brief and undistinguished, but he did inspire a couple of memorable Roger Angell quips: that he was speedy on the basepaths, but that this was "an attribute that is about as essential to catchers as neat handwriting." And especially:

He handles outside curveballs like a man fighting bees.

Vaya con dios.

probably coincidence but estrada on 4 days rest looks good again.

probably a coincidence

probably

sometimes you're just lucky

(he does seem to have more command than his last outing)

This ump has changed the complexion of this game.

That was some kind of play deep in the hole by Hardy. 

"....he does seem to have more command than his last outing...."

Agreed.  And it's very important for the Jays that Estrada has bounced back with an excellent game against a tough-hitting team.  It suggests that his previous couple of poor starts were due to random BABIP factors, and perhaps also due to the excessive rest, rather than any deeper problems or health factors.  On balance, Estrada is having a great season, and there's no logical reason to assume that his performance is on the verge of decline.  I want him in the playoff rotation.

the Orioles (and their fans) don't seem to believe this year.

let's step on their throats this series, please.

That went very well. Including the unneeded insurance runs.

Upton has such great speed that he gets the chance to miss some plays that others couldn't even try.
I'm not finding it frustrating. I just appreciate the effort.

That was some kind of play deep in the hole by Hardy.

It was. I tried to explain that to someone else watching. I also thought Bautista's catch a good one.

How many bullets did the Orioles hit directly to Blue Jay fielders? I didn't find Estrada's start especially heartening. Although it was nice to see him using the curveball high in the strike zone to get ahead. That's new. And going forward, the positive vibes from a win can't hurt.

Great relief work from Biagini and Benoit. Nice to have a deep(er) pen. Also a nice bounce back start from Estrada.

"...How many bullets did the Orioles hit directly to Blue Jay fielders?....."

Alternatively, it could be argued that even the single run that Estrada allowed was a relatively weak fly ball that only barely reached the fence, and Upton could have easily caught it, except that a fan happened to have a glove and was able to reach higher because of the seating tier.   If it wasn't for that fan, the ball was descending straight into Upton's glove.

I wasn't a watching all that closely but while I saw him give up some liners i'm not sure I'd call them "bullets".

I think it was a good start but not a great one. The gift liner (which was hit hard) DP to first was one example I saw of him getting lucky, while there was another ball that got hit to Tulo or Travis I think that was also quite hard. The BABIP gods were kind tonight after punishing Stroman the other day. The ump and his big zone also helped. That being said, it was a good outing against a pretty good offensive team. Hopefully he can build on that. Great win regardless!

check the replay of that DP liner. i don't think it's as hard as you think.

How many bullets did the Orioles hit directly to Blue Jay fielders?

A whole bunch, but I do think most of them came on the third time through the order. Gibbons was rolling the dice a little bit there because of his bullpen situation. If Grilli and Osuna had been available, I think the hook would have come some time earlier.

Division Record and Run Diff

* ALE: 351-312 (.529) +200 (+0.302)
* NLC: 330-320 (.508) +107 (+0.165)
* ALW: 329-327 (.502) -33 (-0.050)
* ALC: 325-328 (.498) -63 (-0.097)
* NLW: 317-336 (.486) -57 (-0.087)
* NLE: 318-337 (.486) -154 (-0.235)

this division, man.

The August 30 birthday team features great pitching and pop in the outfield. 

The batting order:

CF Kiki Cuyler
C  Cal McVey
RF Marlon Byrd
LF Ted Williams
1B Bing Miller
3B Billy Johnson
DH Johnny Lindell
SS Dave Chalk
2B Chris Getz

Bench- Billy Burns, Luis Rivas/Russ Adams, Charlie Armbruster, Bucky Jacobsen

SP- Cliff Lee
SP- Adam Wainwright
SP- Steven Wright
SP- Roberto Hernandez
SP/RP- Pol Perritt
SP/RP- Tom Seaton

CL- Tug McGraw
RP- Frank Funk
RP- Sean Marshall
RP- Mike Koplove
RP- Renie Martin
RP- Roger Erickson
RP- Red Embree

Here's a biography of McVey.   Who knows- he might have been able to catch Wright's knuckler. 

This club looks to me to be a contenda.  The 1980 Phillies won with Carlton, Schmidt and McGraw (Lee, Williams and McGraw would be the analogies) and a lesser supporting crew than this one. 

Here's an interesting piece on sports team management from Jonah Keri. 

Mike,
That team might deserve some normalized (to what, I dunno) numbers.

I'll use age 25-35 seasonal averages, lex:

Cuyler-.331/.396/.499 (131 OPS+), 26 SBs, 75% SB success rate
McVey- .334/.344/.434 (153 OPS+)- career went from 21 to 29 but he was always very good
Byrd- .280/.336/.425 (102 OPS+)
Williams- .342/.489/.636 (193 OPS+)
Miller- .319/.365/.432 (112 OPS+)
Johnson- .271/.346/.391 (102 OPS+)
Chalk- .252/.325/.310 (85 OPS+)
Getz- .250/.309/.307 (68 OPS+)

I'll leave the bench- Bucky Jacobsen had some power in his one year, Rivas/Adams fill a position, Billy Burns is a nice pinch-runner, Armbruster was a Thole quality backup catcher

Lee- ERA 3.52, FIP 3.43 190 IP (ERA+ 118)- Lee's peak is obviously much,much higher and he did throw a lot of innings
Wainwright- ERA 3.12, FIP 3.15 183 IP (ERA+ 127)- injuries
Wright- ERA+ of 127 but he's a knuckleballer and allowed 4.4 runs per 9IP- just around league average
Hernandez- ERA 4.60 FIP 4.58 (ERA+ 88)
Perritt- had 5 200 inning seasons in the teens career ERA+ 95
Seaton- had two big years in the NL at age 24-25 280 innings a year ERA+ of 118 and then jumped to the Federal League

Tug McGraw- 96 IP per year (times were different), ERA+ 126
the rest of the bullpen is serviceable and no more...

Thats a real good team, Mike. I sure do miss Mick Doherty's hall of names posts. Thats what really got me hooked on da Box.... That and the great post from you, Mags, John Northey and the rest of the crew from way back when. Nothing like the good old days if you tell me. :)

I miss Mick too.  When I write up one of these, Mick is on my mind (and he, of course, did a much better and more interesting job of it). What would he have called the club anyways- perhaps the Splendid Splinters to honour Williams. 

The Box has had many gifted writers (and photographers) over the years, and it still does.  The old folks are still good for remembering 35 year old songs though, and Magpie's Windy Lore with Data Tables remain a treat.  .

Saunders is in RF tonight batting sixth.  Bautista DHs and bats first, while Encarnacion plays first base.  Saunders has 3 homers in 16 at-bats vs. Jimenez, so I am not surprised that he is back.

Why is Saunders in right and Upton in left? I know this has been done before but it makes no sense to me. I don't believe that Gibbons considers Saunders the better fielder but maybe he does.

Hopefully this winter I'll find time to do a few posts again digging into Jays history and mixing in the past 2 years as I have a few ideas on that but no time to do it (single parenthood sucks at times).

Camden Yards has more ground to cover in left than in right. 

I wanted to say RF is smaller in Baltimore and as it turns out that's true in the corners but not the gaps. Not sure how that affects the decision here.

Dean there is really is not much difference between the positions. Both receive the same positional adjustment in defensive metrics for that reason.

And from my amateur eye test at least, Saunders looks far more comfortable in right than he he ever has in left.

... like, in RF you have to travel less far to fish the ball out of the corner (and it's a shorter throw too) but you have more opportunity to take away extra-base hits on a ball over your head. With Happ starting against a RH-heavy lineup I think I'd be inclined to play Upton in right, in a vacuum, but I think there's also something to be said for stability. Instincts are important in the outfield...

this is the most recent attempt to evaluate the defensive spectrum that I know of, by Jeff Zimmerman last year: http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/

Is there any rule that prohibits shifting outfielders? For example putting your better corner outfielder in the field where the current batter is most likely to hit? So Upton goes to right against lefties and left against righties, when applicable.

Yeah, rule #1. If Jimy Williams would do it, you don't.

I'm confused about the overlay.  It seems to show that Oriole Park is further at the right-field pole than the RC.  Wikipedia says that it is 318 feet down the right field line at Oriole Park.  There is also that notch in left-center at Oriole Park- 410 feet away, according to Wikipedia. 

Happ seems to have a fairly even split of balls pulled and sent the other way.

Guys I'm not sure Saunders has played LF even once since Upton got here, so it's probably not a stadium issue.

Red's RC - the symmetrical one. Gray is Oriole. Wikipedia's right. The overlay has RC deeper at the RF foul pole (328-318), plus just right of dead center, and the LF power alley, which I guess illustrates why Baltimore might have a reputation as a good RH power hitters' park. Oriole is only bigger in a few places - the LF foul pole, and the 410 mark out in left center.

I am not a visual person at all and I have to look at those things like five times to make sure I've understood them. It never occurred to me that the 400 mark at RC might not be the deepest part of the park.

I don't think it's a stadium thing, either. It would have to be a really stark difference (i.e. possibly Fenway? or Houston?) to make me switch them around.

Well, I can see putting the superior fielder in left in Yankee, but I have a hard time seeing OPACY in that way. Besides, Saunders also started in right in Toronto on Saturday, with Upton in left so it doesn't appear to be field-specific. Looking back over his last several appearances, it appears that Gibbons has made a mid-season shift of Saunders to right field for some reason.

Normally, the better fielder with the better arm is in right. The Cubs aren't paying Jason Heyward the big bucks for his defence in left field. Heck Luzinski and even Lonnie played left. The right fielder is more likely to play a break on balls hit by right handers, and needs a better arm for runners going first to third. Except for Jose Cruz Jr, none of them are running the other way.

Seems pretty obvious that the player who played more RF than LF in 2013-2015 would be more comfortable there, and that management wouldn't be doing it if they didn't feel it's their best defensive alignment.

Thanks, Alex.  You're right (as is Uglyone).  It's not a stadium thing. Just keeping things simple. 

the player who played more RF than LF in 2013-2015 would be more comfortable there

Is this true? If Melvin plays LF every day for 500 straight games, and Justin plays RF, and they're more or less equally good, but then for games 501-505 they switch places for some reason, and game 506 is played in St. Louis, what's the optimal alignment? And why the hell did they switch in the first place?

Saunders does have better numbers in right-field than in left over his career (UZR, DRS, RZR, you name it).  Upton has good numbers in left-field (780 innings) over his career and has played only 26 innings in right-field.  Familiarity with the support of the statistics (flawed as they may be) might be the simple explanation. 

Well the Red Sox did pay a poopload for Crawford's defense in LF, so i'm not sure the Heyward example means all that much, other than more confirmation not to pay for corner OF defense of course. And looking around even just our division with guys like Trumbo, Souza, and Beltran manning RF it doesn't seem that RF is exactly a defensive priority. (fenway being the exception thanks to that silly wall).

In terms of stability, I could see it being a matter of keeping Upton fulltime in LF, while splitting RF betwen Saunders and Bautista (and carrera late innings) without flipping Upton back and forth. That might be one consideration.

The other is familiarity. My eye test doesn't mean anything but still Saunders has played far more RF in his career with substantially better numbers there while Upton has only played 26 innings in RF ever.

I'm not sure what point that convoluted question is trying to make, Alex. If Melvin plays LF and Justin RF for 500 games, the optimal alignment has Melvin in LF and Justin in RF in game 506, regardless of what happened in games 501-505.

When Bautista is healthy, he plays RF because that's where he's most comfortable, which means that Saunders is your LF. When Upton was acquired Bautista was still healthy so you weren't going to have Saunders play out of position in RF if you started Bautista at DH, but once Bautista hit the DL there was going to be a more permanent spot in RF and it made sense to put Saunders back into his more comfortable spot.

Actually, I think I've figured it out. Saunders appearance in right coincided with Bautista hitting the DL. I don't think it was because Sauders played more right in 2013, because they put him in left to start the season. I also don't think it's to do with UZR or fangraphs.

I think it's because Gibbons envisages a defensive outfield of, right to left, Bautista, Pillar and Upton. Saunders is replacing Bautista in right tonight, as he was on Saturday, and as he did when Bautista was on the DL. So Gibbons isn't moving Upton out of his position in left, and instead is just slotting Saunders in for Bautista. They're not going to move Jose out of right for Upton or the second coming of Dave Parker. When Upton sits, Saunders will replace him, with Jose staying in right. I think Alex had it with the consistency thing.

The idea is that you get a better read on fly balls where you're better situated. Where you've played for the past week might be more relevant than where you've played your whole career. Or it might not. I don't know. That'll be someone's neuroscience dissertation in 2093.

Bautista has to play RF because howling at opposing baserunners who fail to challenge him never gets old.

It takes a lot more than a week, or even 2/3 of a season, for a new position to take over your instincts.

I wouldn't be surprised if this one was as simple as Gibby asking the player where he's more comfortable playing if Joey Bats is out and rolling with that answer because the coaching staff doesn't see much of a difference.

Bautista has to play RF because howling at opposing baserunners who fail to challenge him never gets old.

Unfortunately, I don't think there will be too many runners from here on in who fail to challenge his arm. Since he blew it out in that Baltimore thing, I think word has spread that Bautista's got a lob into second and not a lot more. On the weekend, i saw the Twins take second on a flyball to right which you don't see too often.

Too bad the Jays couldn't keep Ryan Schimpf, he would have been a nice cheap LHB with positional flexibility - I remember Schimpf & Goins always being on the jays prospect bubble - somewhere Ricciardi & Dick Scott must be smiling.

In the raised eyebrows department, that Sandy Leon certainly has had a 'miraculous' age 27 season. A career minor league catcher, with inauspicious minor league numbers, and a .445 OPS before this year in the majors, is all of a sudden hitting up one helluva storm in Boston along with David Ortiz. Instead of .445, Sandy is now OPSing a smooth .986, about the same as Josh Donaldson and just ahead of Mike Trouth. Sandy is putting catchers like Buster Posey and Jonathon Lucroy in their place and showing that a career minor leaguer can come to the majors at 27 and out-OPS a dud like Buster by 150 points. Doesn't make me suspicious.

Two days until rosters expand, so let's take an educated guess on the names.

I'm predicting the following:  Goins, Pompey, Thole, Tepera, Barnes, Loup, Bolsinger.  And if Schultz gets demoted tomorrow to make room for Sanchez, he would return when rosters expand.

That's already 8 players, and that might be enough.  After that, it gets a bit harder.  Maybe one more position player:  Burns or Ceciliani.  Maybe one more pitcher, such as Girodo.  Then, a longshot:  maybe Montero or Tellez.  (Both would have to be added to the 40-man roster.)   Montero would be strictly a pinch-hitter option, while Tellez would be more of a development move, to give him a taste of the majors, since he could have a shot at the majors next year.

That's my guess.  Have I got any of them wrong?  Who am I missing?

I'm not sure gibby cares that much about bautista playing the field but it does make sense that he'd have the 2 crippled guys sharing the same spot and leaving the other guy in left fulltime, especially given that all 3 are mlre familiar with those spots.

Who am I missing?

Eight players actually seems like a lot already. Goins, Pompey, Tepera for sure. Probably Schultz and Loup. There has to be a third catcher, so Thole if he clears waivers. (But I can't fathom why the Red Sox wouldn't pick him up. It messes with the competition, they've got three catchers on the DL, it doesn't look like Leon can catch the knuckleball, and the guy backing up Leon is someone they grabbed off waivers three weeks ago.)

goins just got pulled off the field midinning. no injury.

might be traded.

(Starts refreshing Twitter feed every 20 seconds)

First rumour is a three way deal involving Dodgers and Red Sox, with the name Yasiel Puig (claimed on waivers by someone mentioned.)

But Puig is playing tonight for Oklahoma City, and they haven't pulled him off the field.

Heh. If we could get Puig for Goins I'd call it the steal of the year. :)

More realistic is Goins for a LHP out of the pen. Might cost someone else as well. I could live with that as long as someone else isn't one of the Jays top 10 prospects.

Well, Britton's got to blow a save at some point, right?

Some other time. But Longoria HR puts the Rays up 4-3 in the 8th.

Ben Wagner
#Bisons mgr Gary Allenson said he was just told to take Ryan Goins out of the game - no injury, no other updates. #bluejays



i'd say that's definitely a trade.

Is it coincidence that the Jays are 0-1 with a .000 OPS and a team ERA of 18.00 since Ryan Goins was reportedly dealt?

Goins is being called up to replace Barney who is leaving for personal reasons.

boo

Goins is being called up to replace Barney who is leaving for personal reasons.

Well, wasn't that a whole lot of nothing! And I got so excited. I need a life.

Does this mean that both are available for the post-season? Not that anyone would engage in that kind of gamesmanship.

Does this mean that both are available for the post-season?

They were both available already. MLB changed the rule a couple of years back. Now anyone on the 40 man roster as of August 31 is eligible. With the exception of guys like Colabello.

Pinch-hitter Sandy Leon looks at three called strikes with two men on base, Rays hold for the 4-3 win.

A couple of years ago? Nobody tells me anything.

Nobody told me either, until I got confused on it last September. Join the club, we're getting jackets made!

And Bo Schultz is packing his gear.

"Now anyone on the 40 man roster as of August 31 is eligible. With the exception of guys like Colabello."


Italians?

Suspended players.

Sandy Leon looks pretty buff for a catcher. Might have caught a whiff of Ortiz's cologne.

When would you have the Jays travel to Tampa given this storm forecast:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5_NL+gif/084851W5_NL_sm.gif

Is Goins arriving for tonight's game? If so, is there anyone optionable on the roster to make room? I suppose you could theoretically "send" Stroman down for a day and then call him up tomorrow (unless the rules somehow preclude this kind of tomfoolery).

Sandy Leon's BABIP is .432. That helps explain some of his success.

Is Goins arriving for tonight's game? If so, is there anyone optionable on the roster to make room?

I assume Barney is going on either Paternity or Bereavement leave. According to Wikipedia the rules are that the player misses 1 to 3 games for Paternity, 3 to 7 for Bereavement.

".....Now anyone on the 40 man roster as of August 31 is eligible....."

In fact, as I understand it, anyone who is in the organization on Aug. 31 is eligible for the playoffs, even if they're not on the 40-man roster.  So if the Jays decide that they want Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Rowdy Tellez for the playoffs, nothing is stopping them.  (Of course they would still have to be added to the 25-man and 40-man rosters before the playoffs.)

However, a player who has DFA or free-agent status on Aug. 31 is ineligible for the playoffs. So, in a severe blow to his fans, Josh Thole will not be eligible for the playoffs -- unless he is signed to a free-agent contract today.  And folks, he will be.  Just in the nick of time!

However, there's still a pretty strong chance that Thole never sees a playoff game this year.  With Navarro around, and the Jays only needing 3 or 4 starting pitchers in the playoffs, there's no need for Dickey or Thole.

Could the Jays keep Dickey on the playoff roster as a bullpen guy?  Perhaps, but I don't see the point.  Dickey isn't any better in short bursts.  His strength is longer outings and eating innings.  The Jays won't need that in the playoffs.   So no Thole either.   The Jays will somehow have to survive with Navarro, whose OPS is almost 200 points higher than Thole over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

Blue Jay #1: 167 IP, 18 HR, 40 BB, 140 SO
Blue Jay #2: 162 IP, 20 HR, 47 BB, 142 SO

One will be getting Cy Young votes. One won't.

Walks and strikeouts are interesting, like homeruns allowed and hit allowed, but ERA is more important. 4.58 is below league average. Liriano has done better than that.

It might be a good time to put Travis at the top of the order.  Bautista struggled with Jimenez (as he usually does), and has the same kind of difficulties with Gallardo. 

It's nice that Saunders is out of his funk.  Gibbons gave him lots of rest, and that seems to be what the doctor ordered.

My guess was that Chuck was citing Happ and Estrada, which is not particularly notable - the voters may have come a long way but they're still not going to vote Estrada when Happ has twice as many WINS.

But you're actually talking Stroman and Happ. Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd put Stroman on your ballot ahead of Happ?

I wouldn't put Stroman on a Cy Young ballot, but I would certainly consider him for the 1st or 2nd slot in a playoff rotation.  His second half line (57 Ks, 7 walks in 51 innings) combined with his career record would do it for me. 

Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd put Stroman on your ballot ahead of Happ?

Nope. Just pointing out nearly identical peripherals and how fickle fate can be when ERA and FIP don't align. (And in advance of any forthcoming lectures, I understand that there are reasons, sometimes, that they do not align.)

And throwing some snark into the stew. Happ's 17-4 and Porcello's 18-3 are going to be like catnip to some voters.

Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd put Stroman on your ballot ahead of Happ?

No frigging way.

I've been thinking about uglyone's thoughts (in the Angels thread) on the rotation down the stretch. It does look like they're going to stay with six starters for the moment. After tomorrow's off-day, they play six games in six days. That works out well. Then, after the next off day (Sep 8), they play 13 games in 13 days. I think towards the end of that spell - after the third trip through the six starters - they will move back to five starters. And I figure that unless Liriano posts a sub 2.00 in those three starts, he's headed to the bullpen to get used to pitching relief again (it's been a long, long time, but he was really good at it when he first became a major leaguer.) And it's not like any of the other LH relievers have been worth a damn, or have the manager's confidence.

And then, if - and always say "if", my brothers and sisters, there being a little thing known as tempting fate - they make it to the post-season, Dickey gets dropped from the active roster.

So I'm expecting something like:

THU Sep  1 - OFF
FRI Sep  2 - Liriano
SAT Sep  3 - Stroman
SUN Sep  4 - Dickey
MON Sep  5 - Estrada
TUE Sep  6 - Happ
WED Sep  7 - Sanchez
THU Sep  8 - OFF
Fri Sep  9 - Liriano
Sat Sep 10 - Stroman
Sun Sep 11 - Dickey
Mon Sep 12 - Estrada
Tue Sep 13 - Happ
Wed Sep 14 - Sanchez
Thu Sep 15 - Liriano
Fri Sep 16 - Stroman
Sat Sep 17 - Dickey
Sun Sep 18 - Estrada
Mon Sep 19 - Happ
Tue Sep 20 - Sanchez
Wed Sep 21 - Stroman (back to five starters)>
Thu Sep 22 - OFF
Fri Sep 23 - Dickey
Sat Sep 24 - Estrada
Sun Sep 25 - Happ
Mon Sep 26 - Sanchez
Tue Sep 27 - Stroman
Wed Sep 28 - Dickey
Thu Sep 29 - Estrada
Fri Sep 30 - Happ
Sat Oct  1 - Sanchez
Sun Oct  2 - Stroman
Mon Oct  3 - OFF
Tue Oct  4 - Wild Card Game (Estrada, if necessary)
Wed Oct  5 - OFF
Thu Oct  6 - GAME ONE (It all depends.)

It would be really, really, really nice if some - or all, why not - of those final games against Boston can be started by people not on this list.

If they give 6 starts to Sanchez (including today's) and he pitches in the post-season, it's quite possible that he will end up with 230 innings total if current usage patterns hold.  The general manager has said that won't happen.  Maybe he'll be restricted to 6 innings maximum for the remainder of the regular season (with the longer pen available), or maybe they will give him only 5 starts, or maybe there's a 7th game of the World Series exception, or maybe they'll change their minds. 

I imagine that rotation plans are written in pencil at this stage (can you imagine John Gibbons with an iPad?).

"Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd put Stroman on your ballot ahead of Happ?"

Better question: Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd start Stroman in the playoffs ahead of Happ?

Hence the urgency of wrapping up the division before the final Saturday. Another five starts would see him finish with 188 IP or so. I think they'd be fine with him starting one game in each post-season series under those circumstances, which would bring his overall total to about 207 IP.

Do you believe in FIP enough that you'd start Stroman in the playoffs ahead of Happ?

I don't know whether it's supposed to or not, but all you have to do is look at the numbers and it's blindingly obvious that FIP doesn't seem to understand the difference between fly balls (which are more likely to become outs) and ground balls. So I take it about as seriously as a Beatles reunion rumour.

I guess it might be useful to start analyzing recent trends in our SP. Not sure which timeframe makes most sense but we could start with looking at the "2nd half" split:

1.Sanchez 6gs, 6.3ip/gs, 72era-, 65fip-, 90xfip-, 6.1awar/32
2.JA Happ 8gs, 6.2ip/gs, 68era-, 89fip-, 80xfip-, 4.8awar/32
3.Stroman 8gs, 6.4ip/gs, 91era-, 73fip-, 56xfip-, 4.0awar/32
4.Lirano 4gs, 5.7ip/gs, 93era-, 103fip-, 100xfip-, 1.2awar/32
5.Estrada 7gs, 5.7ip/gs, 105era-, 115fip-, 115xfip-, 1.4awar/32
6.Dickey 8gs, 5.5ip/gs, 135era-, 127fip-, 126xfip-, -0.4awar/32

Magpie we should always be aware of the limits of FIP, but we shouldn't pretend that ERA is any less flawed a measure of performance.

since return:

Bautista: 29pa, 10.3bb%, 27.6k%, .280/.345/.520/.865, 125wrc+

Other 2nd half numbers:

Martin 139pa, 157wrc+
Donaldson 173pa, 146wrc+
Encarnacion 181pa, 144wrc+
Travis 152pa, 123wrc+
Tulowitzki 146pa, 116wrc+
Bautista 98pa, 99wrc+
Saunders 135pa, 85wrc+
Pillar 104pa, 68wrc+
Upton 132pa, 47wrc+

Smoak 75pa, 92wrc+
Barney 86pa, 63wrc+
Navarro 103pa, 48wrc+
Carrera 60pa, -34wrc+



Biagini 22.0ip, 29era-, 49fip-, 74xfip-, 2.2awar/65
Grilli 19.0ip, 33era-, 72fip, 76xfip-, 2.2awar/65
Benoit 16.0ip, 42era-, 80fip-, 98xfip-, 2.2awar/65
Osuna 17.1ip, 48era-, 86fip-, 94xfip-, 2.1awar/65
Cecil 13.2ip, 108era-, 100fip-, 60xfip-, 0.0awar/65
Feldman 20.2ip, 154era-, 91fip-, 83xfip-, -0.3awar/65

Tepera 4.2ip, 0era-, 73fip-, 91xfip-, 1.4awar/65
Barnes 4.0ip, 105era-, 49fip-, 90xfip-, 0.8awar/65
Loup 4.1ip, 194era-, 78fip-, 107xfip-, -0.8awar/65
Schultz 5.1ip, 158era-, 196fip-, 105xfip-, -1.8awar/65

Agreed, but I think it's always more important to look at results in a game where there are winners and losers. I could - in fact, I probably have - made the case that team wins and losses are deeply flawed. They don't always give an accurate picture of a team's quality. But that didn't get the 2008 Blue Jays into the post-season, so nobody cares. ERA is fairly closely related to actual runs coming across home plate, and that's what the game is all about. A good process is a good indicator for the future, and it can fill the heart with hope (or concern!) - but it's the results that matter right now. That's always what I'm going to care about, always what's going to impress me most.

Hey, you know me!

Anywhere, here's all the qualified pitchers in the majors ranked by Flyball Frequency. After that, we get ERA, FIP, and ERA minus FIP.

Name	         GB/FB 	ERA   FIP ▴	ERA-FIP
				
Jered Weaver	  0.39	5.21  5.75	-0.54
Drew Smyly*	  0.45	4.80  4.34	 0.46
Dan Straily	  0.50	3.92  4.72	-0.80
Danny Duffy*	  0.52	3.01  3.49	-0.48
Ian Kennedy	  0.52	3.57  4.67	-1.10
Max Scherzer	  0.52	2.89  3.19	-0.30
Justin Verlander  0.54	3.33  3.59	-0.26
Marco Estrada	  0.54	3.37  4.34	-0.97
Hector Santiago   0.58	4.93  5.31	-0.38
Jake Odorizzi	  0.58	3.56  4.10	-0.54
Matt Moore*	  0.63	3.95  4.41	-0.46
Anibal Sanchez	  0.64	5.92  5.06	 0.86
Brandon Finnegan  0.66	4.27  5.47	-1.20
Chris Sale*	  0.66	3.14  3.35	-0.21
Hisashi Iwakuma	  0.66	4.01  4.34	-0.33
Madison Bumgarner 0.66	2.49  3.26	-0.77
Jeremy Hellickson 0.67	3.80  4.16	-0.36
Julio Teheran	  0.67	3.12  3.73	-0.61
John Lackey	  0.68	3.41  3.72	-0.31
Stephen Strasburg 0.68	3.59  2.97	 0.62
Scott Kazmir*	  0.69	4.59  4.49	 0.10
Jose Quintana*	  0.70	2.77  3.34	-0.57
Matt Shoemaker	  0.70	3.91  3.54	 0.37
James Shields	  0.71	5.86  5.94	-0.08
Jerad Eickhoff	  0.71	3.90  4.09	-0.19
Mike Fiers	  0.71	4.40  4.58	-0.18
Chris Tillman	  0.73	3.76  4.26	-0.50
J.A. Happ*	  0.75	3.23  3.94	-0.71
Ricky Nolasco	  0.75	5.24  4.54	 0.70
Ervin Santana	  0.76	3.54  3.75	-0.21
Tom Koehler	  0.76	4.02  4.21	-0.19
Collin McHugh	  0.77	4.80  4.08	 0.72
Jose Fernandez	  0.77	2.79  2.27	 0.52
Josh Tomlin	  0.77	4.89  5.24	-0.35
R.A. Dickey	  0.77	4.43  5.14	-0.71
Kevin Gausman	  0.79	3.73  4.16	-0.43
David Price*	  0.80	3.97  3.46	 0.51
Jason Hammel	  0.80	3.21  4.32	-1.11
Kenta Maeda	  0.80	3.38  3.68	-0.30
Bartolo Colon	  0.81	3.44  3.92	-0.48
Jon Lester*	  0.82	2.70  3.61	-0.91
Adam Wainwright	  0.83	4.53  3.58	 0.95
Jon Gray	  0.83	4.41  3.69	 0.72
Rick Porcello	  0.83	3.26  3.55	-0.29
Steven Wright	  0.83	3.18  3.59	-0.41
Zack Greinke	  0.84	4.17  3.64	 0.53
Doug Fister	  0.85	3.60  4.38	-0.78
Michael Pineda	  0.85	5.12  3.72	 1.40
Zach Davies	  0.85	4.07  3.96	 0.11
Gio Gonzalez*	  0.86	4.25  3.81	 0.44
Jacob deGrom	  0.86	2.96  3.33	-0.37
Corey Kluber	  0.88	3.07  3.11	-0.04
Jeff Samardzija	  0.88	4.00  4.17	-0.17
Chris Archer	  0.89	4.10  3.72	 0.38
Robbie Ray*	  0.89	4.28  3.50	 0.78
Wade Miley*	  0.89	5.43  4.80	 0.63
Masahiro Tanaka	  0.91	3.12  3.25	-0.13
Drew Pomeranz*	  0.92	3.00  3.56	-0.56
Kyle Hendricks	  0.96	2.09  3.33	-1.24
Trevor Bauer	  0.96	3.73  3.90	-0.17
Cole Hamels*	  0.99	2.91  3.86	-0.95
Tanner Roark	  0.99	2.87  3.74	-0.87
CC Sabathia*	  1.01	4.31  4.14	 0.17
Johnny Cueto	  1.02	2.98  3.10	-0.12
Francisco Liriano 1.04	5.22  5.14	 0.08
Jimmy Nelson	  1.06	4.45  4.95	-0.50
Noah Syndergaard  1.06	2.55  2.31	 0.24
Yordano Ventura	  1.06	4.33  4.76	-0.43
Steven Matz*	  1.09	3.40  3.39	 0.01
Kendall Graveman  1.13	3.96  4.64	-0.68
Patrick Corbin*	  1.13	5.57  5.11	 0.46
Chad Bettis	  1.14	5.17  4.44	 0.73
Martin Perez*	  1.15	4.45  4.55	-0.10
Edinson Volquez	  1.16	5.01  4.40	 0.61
Jake Arrieta	  1.19	2.84  3.47	-0.63
Mike Leake	  1.21	4.56  3.88	 0.68
Carlos Martinez	  1.34	3.07  3.55	-0.48
Dallas Keuchel*	  1.34	4.55  3.87	 0.68
Aaron Sanchez	  1.36	2.99  3.33	-0.34
Jaime Garcia*	  1.39	4.46  4.25	 0.21
Marcus Stroman	  1.62	4.58  3.66	 0.92

Hence the urgency of wrapping up the division before the final Saturday. Another five starts would see him finish with 188 IP or so. I think they'd be fine with him starting one game in each post-season series under those circumstances, which would bring his overall total to about 207 IP.

It's hard to keep a starter sharp going one start per series only. I guess we'll see how Sanchez fares today - he did well on 9 days rest after the All-Star break but pitched poorly with a week between outings last time.  One possibility is to give him a brief relief outing between starts.  Damned if I know- that's why they pay pitching coaches the big bucks!

But magpie why do we even use ERA then? why don't we just use RA if we are concerned about the actual game results? why would we let dubious scoring decisions as to what are "errors" or not change the actual results on the field? It's because we know when analyzing pitching we should try to take fielding out of the equation.

And why did FIP rose to prominence anyways? For no other reason than that it did a better job of predicting future ERA than current ERA itself did.

"Blue Jay #1: 167 IP, 18 HR, 40 BB, 140 SO
Blue Jay #2: 162 IP, 20 HR, 47 BB, 142 SO
One will be getting Cy Young votes. One won't."

That's because one pitcher has allowed a lot less runs this year than the other.

I noticed you omitted the runs allowed stat lol.

For his career, Happ has an xFIP of 4.21, a FIP of 4.16 and an ERA of 4.01.  By the way, fangraphs has the distribution of balls vs. Happ this year as ground balls 190, fly balls 160 and line drives 100.  That is not a particularly extreme profile.  Stroman's is extreme, but was also extreme last year when he had the exact opposite FIP/xFIP/ERA experience.  Over the 2015-16 period, Stroman has made 30 starts with a FIP of 3.63, an xFIP of 3.32 and an ERA of 4.16. 

Stroman's 2016 home run allowed plot is interesting.  Of the 18 home runs he has allowed, 9 were JEs and one was "lucky".  That is a lot.   Of Happ's 20 home runs allowed, 8 were JEs and no luckies.  Bearing in mind that Happ is the fly-ball pitcher and Stroman is the ground-ball pitcher, you would anticipate that Happ would be more vulnerable to the wind-blown fly that carries over the fence. 

I agree that the ERA and the xFIP are both relevant over a year.  If you are trying to decide who to throw out there for one game though and  weight ERA much higher than xFIP, you are probably going to make a mistake. 

Chuck - it is a good reminder of how good Stroman still is. He has been having a serious issue with BABIP this year but he still leads the Jays in IP, and has the lowest BB/9 among the starters while only Sanchez has a better HR/9.

I suspect Stroman will be the best the Jays have in the playoffs in the rotation (assuming the Jays make it). Estrada I expect to be the weakest.

I enjoyed this chart:

link

But magpie why do we even use ERA then? why don't we just use RA

Fine by me, actually. But old habits - they do die hard. I will have to make an effort!

The idea of ERA was to excuse the pitcher for defensive screw-ups - but I also think there may have been an assumption that it evens out, that all pitchers give up roughly the same number of unearned runs. About 7-8% of all runs are scored as Unearned, and lots of pitchers truly are in that vicinity. But his year, Patrick Corbin's given up 20 unearned runs. Steven Wright and Jimmy Nelson have given up 16. Meanwhile, Chris Tillman, Stephen Strasburg, and Danny Duffy haven't given up any.

That's because one pitcher has allowed a lot less runs this year than the other. I noticed you omitted the runs allowed stat lol.

Yes, thank you. I hadn't noticed that I omitted runs. You have cleared up my confusion.

This is why I always mix fwar and ra9war 50/50 when I run my stats. I figure that gets closer than either extreme, even if it's still far from perfect.

Personally I can't wait until statscast gives us a thorough set of data on batted ball velocities and angles - that should cut through all the noise eventually and give us an actual accurate number to describe pitching (and hitting) performance.

For no other reason than that it did a better job of predicting future ERA than current ERA itself did.

I gotta admit, have trouble seeing that. What I do see a pretty consistent relationship between an individual pitcher's FIP and his ERA (hey, this is why we use ERA - it's there, I can just copy the damn number without having to do my own calculation.) Which makes them roughly equal if you're interested in predicting the future. It's not a one-time fluke that Dickey's ERA is significantly better than his FIP. That's who he is, that's what he does. Him and Estrada. And similarly, it's not a fluke that Liriano's ERA is much worse than his FIP. That's how he rolls. Stroman too, so far.

Hum and Chuck has the awesome calls en francais of Josh Donaldson's three homers.  Hat tip- Jonah Keri's twitter feed.

It was 1981. I was a Montrealer who had moved to Ontario, far enough west that French was little understood. For some reason I was watching an Expos game, en francais, with friends. Bill Gullickson struck out 18 batters (which on its own is something... Bill Gullickson???) and the excitable Roger Doucet's reaction was Ouiiiiiiii.

I had to explain to my friends that he was, in fact, yelling YES, not WEEEEEEEE as if he were a toddler presented a popsicle.

Back to Stroman for a minute (go Rays, by the way).  It is particularly important for him to field well because of his extreme groundball profile.  He is a natural athlete and can do better than he has this year.  I don't know if the knee injury might be affectting that part of his game.

McCracken's DIPS had the virtue of pointing out that there are three true outcome pitchers that are the flip side of TTO hitters. It helped reveal the BABIP gods to fans. DIPS gave us a way of looking at the game it is valuable.

IIRC DIPS did predict future ERA in a subsequent year than ERA in its first incarnation which is one of the reasons James praised it in the updated historical abstract.

go Rays, by the way

The most extreme flyball LH in the majors in Fenway Park? What could go wrong?

No doubt there are some pitchers who consistently do significantly better (or worse) than their peripherals, but they're rare, even though we happen to have two of them in Dickey (knuckleballers are a known cause of this) and Estrada.

Look at happ's career (i'll use ERA- and FIP-, and SP stats only, min 50ip):

2016: 75era- --- 92fip- (-17)
2015: 95era- --- 88fip - (+7)
2014: 106era- -- 109fip- (-3)
2013: 112era- -- 107fip- (+5)
2012: 119era- -- 101fip- (+18)
2011: 141era- -- 120fip- (+21)
2010: 85era- --- 107fip- (-22)
2009: 71era- --- 104fip- (-33)

Now first we notice on a somewhat unrelated note that Happ's true talent level certainly looks to have legitimately improved last year and this year, which is pretty sweet but not actually what we're talking about here.

More importantly we see that fip varies far less than era from year to year. Before last year his FIP stayed within 101-109 range aside from one 120 year, while his ERA ranged anywhere from 71-141. Even his improvement the last two years sees the same effect - a fip in the 88-92 range, but eras 75-95. This suggests that one stat is measureing something real about his performance while the other is being more influenced by outside factors.

Also we can see that he has both overachieved and underachieved his FIP - there's no uniform over or underachieving. Again that indicates that the FIP is showing something real while the ERA is much noisier.

Even Estrada hasn't always been a fip-beater, though he seems to have figured out something (hopefully permanent) the last 2yrs:

2016: 79 - 101 (-22)
2015: 80 - 108 (-28)
2014: 131 - 149 (-18)
2013: 100 - 98 (+2)
2012: 93 - 82 (+11)

Estrada does have a unique set of pitches with unique movement which seem to legitimately be producing weak contact - but we'll see if that stands the test of time. Very reminiscent of another unique pitcher in Chris Young.

and of course knuckleballing Dickey has beaten his fip every single year, by a healthy margin. though then again knuckleballers get a higher than usual number of unearned run so that gap isn't quite as impressive as it looks at first galnce.

Stroman we don't have enough information to go on yet, but we can see the power of fip if we dissect his small sample so far. Coming into this year, this is how Stroman had fared as an SP:

2014-15: 24gs, 77era-, 76fip-

no sign of being a fip underachiever before this season. And that was true even a good way (8gs) into this season where his career as a starter looked like this in may:

32gs, 77era-, 76fip-

32 is pretty much a full season of starts, so over his first season's worth of starts he was an ace by both era and fip, with no underachieving his peripherals.

But this year has been a year of extremes for him, and something happened after those first 8 starts:

1st 8gms: 83era-, 80fip-
2nd 8gms: 176era-, 110fip-
Last 10gms: 80era-, 71fip-

Something went sideways for Stroman in the middle of this year, maybe a lot of somethings, but as of now that middle stretch seems way out of synch with the rest of his career so far, before and after. His fip was bad but his era was horrendous. I'm not sure we can use this stretch to say that he's a guy that will always underachieve his fip, given that he wasn't that kind of guy before or since.

The last 10 starts seem to have him back more or less where he was before, so hopefully that horrific middle 8 starts is just a blip that will be ancient history by next year.

Tampa opens the scoring when Wright's 10th wild pitch of the season (twice as many as Dickey) moves Kiermaier to second, where he scores on a ground-rule double.

Told you they should have claimed Thole!

Steven Wright's magic ride seems to be over - and while it's likely a coincidence it is funny that it almost (but not quite) coincides with our man Farrell using him as a pinch runner only to see him injure his shoulder diving back to the bag. Red Sox fans are starting to loathe Big Johnny almost as much as I did.

The Red Sox really have benefitted from a lot of fluke greatness this year - Steven Wright and Sandy Leon being the greatest examples, but the first halves of babip insanity from Bogaerts, Bradley, and Shaw as well.

WEEI announcers are going after Beckham for a lack of hustle. Something tells me they should also chastise Keirmaier a little more for running on Betts.

I'm not sure we can use this stretch to say that [Stroman's] a guy that will always underachieve his fip

Agreed that it's probably too soon. What I was looking at was:

2014-15: ERA 3.31, FIP 2.96
2016:    ERA 4.58, FIP 3.66

Based on that, I fearlessly predict that in 2017 he lowers his FIP to 3.10, and his ERA drops to 3.50...

Chuck, my point is that you can make a lot of players look comparable when you cherry pick stats.

Happ's having a MUCH better season than Stroman is. (Hence the Cy Young votes)

Kevin Cash needs to get his bullpen up right now.

my point is that you can make a lot of players look comparable when you cherry pick stats.

I wasn't cherry-picking. I presented the stats that are the basis of FIP.

you can make a lot of players look comparable when you cherry pick stats.

I think Chuck's point was that often the peripherals do not tell you what you really want to know. Those two guys look exactly the same, if you leave out the number of hits (and hence, runs) they give up.

Cash leaves Smyly in to face Ramirez with the bases loaded, two out in the fifth. One out away from the W. First pitch grand-slam. Sigh.

Cash's team is going nowhere so he's going to at least give his starter the chance for the W.

Stupid W stat.

Cash has taken pitchers out in the 5th inning working on a shutout.  It's a strange thing because Smyly had thrown a lot of pitches and the Rays do have tomorrow off, and the rosters are expanding before the next game. 

And he's a left-handed flyball pitcher. In Fenway Park. With a RH power hitter at the plate.

Navarro DHing tonight. of course.

Upton sits.

Navarro DHing tonight.

My over/under was 0. And I took the under. So I guess I lose.

Let's be entirely clear about this. Gibbons' decision to DH Navarro against a RHP is completely bizarre.  Not only do you get a sinkhole at DH but you have Bautista and Saunders in the OF. 

Consider it a welcome back, Dioner move.

It's a freaking pennant race.  The players can do a collection for him and get a gold chain with a soccer ball in it to show how much they care.

Upton's 55wrc+ won't be missed.

Chuck,

Why only present the stats that are the basis for fip?

Why not also include the stats that are the basis for era and/or other stats?

Maybe its more accurate to say you cherry picked fip.

If you decide that you really want to have both Bautista and Saunders in the OF at the same time, you could DH Encarnacion and play Smoak at first base.  At least, Encarnacion gets a little break from the field and you get a much better bat than Navarro's. 

Why only present the stats that are the basis for fip?

Because we were talking about FIP?

At least, Encarnacion gets a little break from the field and you get a much better bat than Navarro's.

Not to mention the fact that you get to keep a catcher on the bench in case you need to take Martin out for some reason and not lose the DH in the process. 

Navarro is slashing .143/.333/.143 in 9 PAs against Gallardo, so it's not like there is a batter vs. pitcher thing going on.

Hey, Navarro's hit 143 points better than Smoak against Gallardo.

Granted, we're talking .143 vs .000.

We'll see yet another Baltimore pitcher who absolutely owns Jose Bautista. He's 1-14 against Gallardo, 1-10 against Gausman, 3-35 (!) against Jimenez. The two guys he can hit - Tillman and O'Day - are both on the DL.

Upton's 55wrc+ won't be missed.

Uh. Since you love the small samples, Navarro has a .570 OPS against righties this year. Upton's is .654.

That's without taking into account the actually significant career stats (Navarro .651, Upton .710)

Thanks for coming out, though!

I did not comment on the Navarro trade because I wanted to see how Gibbons would use him.

I hate the trade already. Navarro can't hit righties and this move forces Edwin to unnecessarily play the field when he could have rested at DH. Plus we are back to the bad outfield defense.

At least put Navarro at catcher and DH Martin if that was the route you wanted to take. This makes no sense.

I'd rather Navarro not be the DH, but holy smokes...

Since Melvin Upton joined the Jays:

Melvin Upton: .214/.252/.350
Justin Smoak: .196/.241/.392

Upton hasn't been that good defensively either, and Smoak's line would look significantly worse without one good game in August.

But sure, let's roast the manager for having some faith in one of his old veterans and wanting to see what he looks like FOR ONE GAME. I love it.

One out away from Kimbrel time, Forsythe delivers a two-run single to tie the game. Go Rays!

Plus we are back to the bad outfield defense.

That's why you if you have to play Bautista and Saunders in the OF - and sometimes you will want to - you do it when one of your two groundball pitchers is working. Like tonight.

Last 5yrs

Navarro 983pa, 86wrc+ vRH / 366pa, 122wrc+ vLH
Upton 1743pa, 83wrc+ vRH / 631pa, 94wrc+ vLH

Yes, let's roast the manager for an idiotic move.  This decision is far, far worse than a judgment call in the late innings which may or may not be wrong.  It is easily Gibbons' worst move of the season.  I hated the decision to bring in Leon early on in a high leverage situation but his one is much, much worse. 

It's really simple.  Navarro is a really crappy hitter against RHP this year and over his career.  There is no excuse for DHing a truly crappy hitter.  And as for sentimentality, Navarro's last at-bat with the club was not one that left me with a great taste.  Yes, Wade Davis is very, very tough but Navarro went down very easily with no bad calls against him when a ball in play would almost surely have resulted in a run.  For what it's worth, Navarro is just slightly better than Ryan Goins as a hitter against RHP over his career. 

The Rays instantly give up the lead. Aaron Hill - thanks, pal - drives in the go-ahead run.

When Gibbons had Navarro as an everyday player, he basically had no platoon split at all. Just one of those years, but there you go. Pretty well every manager who ever lived will trust the evidence of his own eyes.

Not any more, Magpie.  Most Managers have bench coaches and data analysts providing advice and reports.  This kind of stupidity  would not be tolerated on any number of teams. A basic awareness of platoon splits is now a job requirement for a manager. 

Anyways, I don't think that is what motivated Gibbons.  He just likes Navarro, splits be damned. 

Apparently Navarro is a solid choice if you cherry-pick your statistical analysis hard enough.

@bnicholsonsmith
#BlueJays will continue to monitor Aaron Sanchez's workload. Keeping options open. Bullpen? "That ain't happening," says Gibbons.

only Parker is allowed to cherry pick.

Last 3yrs vRH

Navarro 735pa, 78wrc+
Upton 963pa, 78wrc+

Most Managers have bench coaches and data analysts providing advice and reports.

Which will have told him him that Upton and Smoak are pretty much helpless against Gallardo anyway. If those are your three options, I don't see that any one choice is especially stupid.

The Rays' bullpen has not distinguished itself this season.  Then again, neither has the Ranger pen and look what they've done.  Youneverknow.

Dioner Navarro got absolutely hosed in G6 of the ALCS by Jeff Nelson on a 1-1 pitch that was both high and outside, forcing him to take a bad swing on the 1-2 pitch in the same spot.

I was going off career stats.

We clearly don't have the same definition of cherry-picking, ugly. Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

Breaking out the nuclear reverse jinx...

Obviously the power of sentiment is going to turn Navarro into Jorge Posada in his first game. But only his first game, so you might as well use it against the Orioles.

Navarro as a blue jay: 89wrc+ vRH, 114wrc+ vLH

Which will have told him him that Upton and Smoak are pretty much helpless against Gallardo anyway. If those are your three options, I don't see that any one choice is especially stupid.

Boy.  The sample size for batter/pitcher matchups is too small to mean anything.  The more general platoon numbers are what matters (and Upton's superior defence to Bautista/Saunders). I wonder what the folks in the Jay analytic department are thinking right about now.

The Rays' bullpen has not distinguished itself this season.

As a group, they haven't been all that bad. Better than average in preventing runs, and very good at stranding inherited runners. It is a pretty good place to pitch, and Tampa has had about league average pitching, and somewhat below average hitting. Their biggest problems have been one-run games (11-20) and the existence of the AL Central (10-20).

I wonder what the folks in the Jay analytic department are thinking right about now.

"Upton, Smoak, or Navarro? Huey, Dewey, or Louie?"

Stupidity, idiocy, poor Edwin in the field! Good thing the BattersBox does not have ledges to jump from.

Given what we know of Shapiro's approach to decision making, does anyone truly believe Gibbons was blindly handed Navarro without some discussion pre-trade as to how he may be used? Seems implausible to me that the trade would have materialized at all without that sort of input.

Parker, being a clever guy you know that cherry picking ain't the only way to massage stats.

You could, for example, use career numbers for a guy who is a shadow of his younger self, if you were so inclined.

Dioner Navarro got absolutely hosed in G6 of the ALCS by Jeff Nelson on a 1-1 pitch that was both high and outside, forcing him to take a bad swing on the 1-2 pitch in the same spot.

I didn't think so at the time, but it's true that the pitch was not a strike.  I checked the BlueJayump twitter feed.  The pitch was not high, but 1.6 inches outside (24% of umps call that pitch a strike). 

You could, for example, use career numbers for a guy who is a shadow of his younger self, if you were so inclined. You mean the guy with a 110 OPS+ LAST YEAR? That shadow of his younger self?

You mean the guy with a 110 OPS+ LAST YEAR?

True dat - but doesn't that 110 OPS+ look mighty odd, in the context of the last few years of his career? How did he do that, anyway?

By having a good month. Upton missed more than two months to start the year, and went into September 2015 having played in just 60 games, while hitting .235/.296/.403. He had a strong September - .321/.406/.500 - and it accounted for a much larger chunk of his season that it normally would have.

"....Given what we know of Shapiro's approach to decision making, does anyone truly believe Gibbons was blindly handed Navarro without some discussion pre-trade as to how he may be used?..."

Thank you, Hodgie.   Gibbons does not operate in supreme isolation from the rest of the organization.  The decision-making is collectively done.  Some people have a tendency to blame Gibbons for decisions that they don't like, while praising Shapiro for decisions that they do like.  I'm sure there's a lot of consultation and collaboration and consensus on most decisions.

Another odd thing about Upton's work in September 2015 - he was doing a lot of pinch-hitting. I mean a lot. He played 27 games that month, and in 15 of them he came in as a pinch-hitter. Well, he was really good at it. Over the season, he went 8-26, with 8 BB as a pinch hitter.

yeah, he did put up a 109wrc+ in a whole 228pa last year something something small samples something.

Well, okay. Upton's no Dioner Navarro with the bat, I guess.

No help from the Rays or White Sox today. Gotta do it ourselves.

Upton's such an odd player - although there are a lot of guys like him, I suppose. He's got wonderful athletic tools - he's just remarkably fluid on the field and the bases - but the baseball tools just never did match up. He was supposed to be a shortstop, you may recall. Then the Rays tried at 3b and 2b, before giving up and putting him in the outfield. And he was a good player for them. What's especially strange is how, at age 28, he just went right off the cliff and crashed onto the rocks below. He's been crawling back up ever since, but... he fell an awfully long way, the clock is not on his side, and the tools he does have don't age as well as the ones he doesn't have. But he should be a decent fourth outfielder for the next year or two.

Navarro bats seventh in the order. I do miss the early 6-0 leads and maybe today will be the day.

Can't ask for a better start.

And Bautista starts the game off a la Rickey Henderson. Love it. Now let's run up Gallardo's pitch count and cash some more runs. Focus, gentlemen.

Yeah, based on how much of his contract the Jays forced SD to eat, I'm more than happy with Upton as the 4th outfielder. Though, I suspect the organization actually sees him as the 3rd outfielder, with Bautista a) falling off a cliff defensively, b) unable to stay healthy while playing defense, and c) gone at the end of the year.

The Jays have had some luck with players finding another gear, too. With his toolsy profile, it wouldn't be completely out of the realm of possibility that Upton gets better over the next two seasons. I wouldn't bet even-odds money on it, but it's not impossible.

That's definitely true - Jimmy Key and Scott McGregor kept Pat Tabler in the league. Tabler hit .385/.400/.744 against Key in 39 ABs. The only guys he had more hits against were McGregor and Frank Tanana.

Is there anyone we can say that about for Buck? Sure: Larry Gura (whom he caught for several years), Frank Viola, and Floyd Bannister.

I had a feeling the Gibbons white knighting would appear. If Eric Wedge or some other Shapiro hire were managing the team right now and decided to put a back-up catcher who can't hit righties at DH against a righty for no reason, my guess is the reaction would be different.

Whatever. Gibbons thinks he's a good hitter and nothing is going to change that. No one is asking for Gibby's firing because of it. It's a bad move, calling a spade a spade, but hopefully it won't hurt them.

I'm disappointed that with all the talk of sample size, no one mentioned that Upton has a wRC+ of 106 in his last 71 plate appearances. Even that tiny sample size is more relevant than bringing up his Atlanta numbers which clearly do not represent what he's been since then.

Dioner Navarro laughs at your analytics. Of course.

More to the point - how is Navarro's batting helmet so filthy? He got here yesterday.

"I'm disappointed that with all the talk of sample size, no one mentioned that Upton has a wRC+ of 106 in his last 71 plate appearances. Even that tiny sample size is more relevant than bringing up his Atlanta numbers which clearly do not represent what he's been since then."

and an 81wrc+ in his last 45pa. i guess that's even more relevant?

talk about white knighting.

I know batting order isn't the be-all-end-all, but really? Both Navarro and Pillar hitting ahead of Devon Travis?

Go Gibbons. :P

Just to be clear, I'm fine with Navarro as a back-up catcher, but not as a DH, ever. Unless the only other option is Goins or some other weird emergency.

As I type this, he hits a single, and Gibbons laughs at the haters.

and an 81wrc+ in his last 45pa. i guess that's even more relevant?

Navarro is batting 1.000 in his last 1pa. It's probably about time for the #NavarroForMVP hashtag, eh?

"....a back-up catcher who can't hit righties at DH against a righty for no reason...."

Why do you assume there is "no reason"?   There is a multitude of possible factors that you could be unaware of.  It takes great hubris to proclaim that there is "no reason."

weird that SK's sample abuse didn't bother you one iota there, parkie baby.

He's not as much fun to troll. :P

It was Porter who provided that interesting strike zone on Monday, with the huge inside corner on RH batters.

Both Navarro and Pillar hitting ahead of Devon Travis?

Yeah, I'd like to see him right at the top, with everybody else moved down a spot. Gibbons said he wanted Travis to get a few games in after coming back from the finger issue before putting him back at the top of the order - not that one should ever treat anything a manager says for public consumption as gospel - and I suppose he's waiting for Travis to start hitting again (he's 2-14 since returning to the lineup) before making the move.

Tough break for the home plate ump - hope he's OK.

I love Jim Palmer.  He described Kim's baserunning decision as "horrible".  It was.

Biagini and Grilli have each pitched 4 of the last 6 days so I assume that leaves Osuna-Benoit-Cecil-Feldman to win tonight's game. With the off day tomorrow I'd like to see Osuna for more than 3 outs if necessary, winning this series helps bury the Orioles.

Weaver, Ubaldo, Gallardo...during this important stretch, the Jays have really floundered against some of the worst starters in the league.

"weird that SK's sample abuse didn't bother you one iota there, parkie baby."


Well, to be fair, my sample size abuse was mocking yours, so it shouldn't have bothered anyone. My point was anyone can take any number of samples and create a narrative.

I'm not sure how anyone can justify Navarro at DH against a RHP. Maybe the Jays get lucky and he does well tonight, but it was still a non sensical move.

I love Jim Palmer. He described Kim's baserunning decision as "horrible". It was

I sure wish he'd made the other decision. I questioned it at the time too, two outs and all, but I guess he was pretty confident he'd make it.

I'm not sure how anyone can justify Navarro at DH against a RHP. Maybe the Jays get lucky and he does well tonight, but it was still a non sensical move.

Ciito Gaston made a point of getting players into a game as soon as they join the team, rather than having them just sit on the bench. i like that approach, and it brought another rare left handed bat into the game. If Toronto doesn't win the game, it's not because Navarro DH'ed.

Reimold will be Sanchez' last batter, I assume.

Very surprising that Sanchez was 1) kept in after the 5th inning, and 2) still pitching in the 6th as I type this at 106 pitches despite not looking very Sanchez-like tonight. Missing a lot of pitches up as well. Would love to hear the rationale for this.

The rational is that the team needs to win the game.

And that Sanchez is (presumably) well-rested.

A visibly tired Sanchez on a high pitch count gives the team a better chance to win? I mean, he got out of the inning, so that's great, but that seemed to be pushing it, especially with him being on a workload restriction to begin with.

He didn't look like his usual self at all. A lot of contact, didn't have the swing/miss stuff he had previously, etc. Feldman is a good pitcher having some bad luck. I don't think it was conceding the game to use him to start the 6th.

Dioner Navarro is just trolling you folks now.

Whoa. Losing those 35 pounds really helped.

Great game by Navarro ;) Worst decision ever.

Maybe the Jays get lucky and he does well tonight, but it was still a non sensical move.

But it would have been okay by you to have Navarro catch and Martin DH, resulting in a net zero improvement to the offense but weakening the defense. Much more sensical.

The O's weren't hitting Sanchez. They were only able to score a run because Donaldson missed a grounder with two out and a runner on third.

Absolutely perfect.

So who gets the eighth? Mix and match?

I like Benoit for a bit more.

Cecil warming up. Davis and Alvarez due. Worth a shot. I guess.

nice test for cecil here. he hasn't been awful lately, and this could be a nice chance to.reclaim.his role.

and so sweet to see saunders bounce back instead of just fading away.

he hasn't been awful lately

Oh, I'm going to hold that five pitch walk against the Angels to load the bases for Trout against him for a while yet.

The last run allowed by Joaquin Benoit was driven home by... Dioner Navarro. Of course.

Trumbo fouled off the first hanging curve. And a couple of pitches outside the strike zone, before he got another hanger.

i'd say he failed the test.

Petty gripe.  Double play balls should be run out.

Subjectively, it felt like the Jays must be leading the universe in GIDP. Fangraphs tells me this isn't so, that depending on what the Braves do tonight they have only hit into the 2nd or 3rd most DPs in MLB. Expand that to the last two seasons and they are 4th. Of course, they are also 1st in runs during that time so I need to learn to take the good with the bad.

Geez, this guy has a weird strike zone. It's like a moving target.

Cecil threw some good pitches and some bad ones, and threw strikes.  With a 5-1 lead in the 8th, it qualifies as a D or C- outing to me. 

Subjectively, it felt like the Jays must be leading the universe in GIDP.

Now tied for second in the AL with Cleveland, behind the Angels. It's the type of team that will hit into DPs - lots of RH sluggers, not a lot of speed. They don't bunt, they don't steal bases, they don't start runners. There are good reasons for that - it wouldn't make much sense with this group of hitters - but there will be DPs.

The strike zone is erratic.

Navarro must hit a home run here.

Osuna's ERA is a factor of three times higher in non save situations and yet Gibby insists on bringing Osuna in in those situations. I don't know why Feldman didn't go back out for the ninth.

The Orioles have 15 SB this season. Gosh. Wonder when was the last time a team stole so few.

Gerry, I think Osuna came on (in part) because he last pitched 3 days ago and they have the day off tomorrow. 

Mystery solved. It's the same helmet Navarro wore last year. They never washed it?

"....yet Gibby insists on bringing Osuna in in those situations..."

Isn't it simply to keep Osuna somewhat sharp?  He hadn't pitched since the 28th, and there's an off day tomorrow.  If he hadn't pitched tonight, it would mean potentially 4 or 5 days of no game action before his next appearance.

I admit that the results aren't pretty, but I think Osuna would be rusty and perhaps ineffective in high-leverage situations if he went 4 or 5 days between appearances.

Or, what Mike said.

The '72 Detroit Tigers stole 17. The '73 Pirates stole 23. O's figure to be the fewest since the 2005 A's stole 31.

They've also hit just 5 triples, and the fewest a team has had is .... the Baltimore Orioles in 1981 (11). Short season of course. Other than that it's...the Baltimore Orioles in 1998 (also 11).

So every 17 or so years the Orioles do this.

Red Sox call up Yoan Mocado on Aug 31 to make him eligible for the post-season. I have to think the Panda era is done.

The problem was using Osuna to lock up the game on Sunday so he wasn't available for the save on Monday.
With a day off, no reason not to use him, other than let the other guy put somebody on to create a save situation.
I'm not a fan of that.

Thankfully, they got a real DH in there to score that insurance run.

Agreed. I was going 'what' when I saw Osuna come in but with the offday and 2 days rest going in it made sense to get him some game action.

Tomorrow we see who the Jays call up - with 5 games left in Buffalo's season I suspect the Jays won't do a full callup but just who they feel they need. If Thole comes back immediately then they won't call up a 3rd catcher right away, Pompey might make sense (defense/pinch runner mainly), plus either Colabello or Montero to pinch hit whenever Goins gets into a game. Girodo or Loup to give that extra LHP in the pen, and maybe Barns as he has just been so good down there (2 BB vs 37 SO). Leave any others for after Buffalo's season is done.

Well, Gibbons brought in Osuna Sunday with a 4 run lead as well, and it had nothing to do with keeping him sharp. In fact, because Gibbons also had Osuna warming up in blowout games, he couldn't use him for the first game in Baltimore. I take it that the "(in part)" quote in Mike's post, is that he would have likely done it whether Osuna needed work or not.

I didn't like taking out Feldman and I didn't like taking out Benoit. Had Baltimore tied it in the 9th, Gibbons would have exhausted his pen and, with Grilli and Biagini apparently out, would have been down to Bo Shultz followed by a starter. If I recall correctly, the excessive pitching changes was part of the ESPN consideration in giving Gibbons the low rating he received among current managers. But however much I complain, I'm starting to think that Gibbons is just going to ignore me.

They still have to pay Panda over 77M for the next 5 year.
They can use him as a mascot if they want.

Had Baltimore tied it in the 9th, Gibbons would have exhausted his pen and, with Grilli and Biagini apparently out, would have been down to Bo Shultz followed by a starter.

I'm pretty sure Schultz isn't even on the roster, he had to be sent down to bring Sanchez back up. Not sure who would have pitched after Osuna if it came to it

Benoit and Grilli have been good pitching clean, single innings. I'm happy to stick with that.
Fieldman and Biagini can go 2 or more.
I don't really care that Osuna gives up meaningless runs in non-save situation as long as the Jays win.

Gibbons picked a good lineup today as Bautista, Saunders and Navarro produced.
A series win in Baltimore is huge.

Red Sox call up Yoan Mocado on Aug 31 to make him eligible for the post-season.

Except he would have been eligible anyway. No sticky stuff in the memory part anymore.

"If I recall correctly, the excessive pitching changes was part of the ESPN consideration in giving Gibbons the low rating he received among current managers. "

I wonder why his direct competition considers him one of the best managers in the game?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/major-league-best-tools/#tDmdOlwcEirIPVc5.97

"I don't really care that Osuna gives up meaningless runs in non-save situation as long as the Jays win."

apparently neither does he.

Boy did the Red Sox screw up when they signed Panda and Ramirez. Ramirez is now 'up' to 0.3 bWAR as a Sox with his 1.6 this year after a negative year the previous season. That seems like heaven vs Panda's -1.1 total over 129 games over 2 seasons. Just shy of $40 mil a year for the next 3 years goes to those 2 then just $18 mil in 2020, and $12 in 2021. So glad the Jays didn't make that mistake. Meanwhile another $30 mil a year goes to Price on top of that. Guess we'll see how much money the owners there are willing to eat this winter.

This was Sanchez's 25th start of the season. Estrada is at 23.

Anyone care to guess the last Jay team that got 25 starts from 5 pitchers?

I would guess 93.

Sanchez looked like he was down about 2 mph on all of his pitches. Fastballs at 93-94, not 95-96. Curves in the 75-76 range instead of 78. Didn't seem super sharp on location. Over 110 pitches.

No complaints about the results, for sure. Just... hoping Sanchez isn't fading on us.

I think the contract of Matt Dermody has been picked up by the Jays and he's the first of the September callups.

Matt Dermody is an interesting story.  Nice to see the unexpected promotion for an under-the-radar 28th-round draft pick, whose numbers in New Hampshire this season were extremely impressive.  But it also confirms that the Jays were unable to acquire a LHP reliever on the waiver trade market this month, so they'll have to rely on guys in their system.  Brett Cecil, as we've discussed, is currently the one who's being used as a situational pitcher against LHB, with mixed results.  Dermody, along with perhaps Loup if he is promoted in the September call-ups, could supplement Cecil as an option in those situations.  Meanwhile the Jays continue to pay $2-million to Franklin Morales, who is long gone.  It seems to have become the most difficult role for the Jays to fill this season.

Dermody, incidentally, has held LHB to an OPS of just .612 this season.  His numbers against RHB, however, are almost as strong.

The biggest shock of the Orioles series for me was the Abysmal attendance for such an important series - that's Rays attendance territory.

The decision to use Osuna last night was one of those managerial judgment calls that I was speaking of earlier.  I would guess that Gibbons had Osuna warming in the eighth with Feldman partly because of the game situation and importance and partly because of the desirability of getting him some work.  Once he had him warming in the eighth, that was a factor that led him to bring him on in the ninth.  I don't know whether Gibbons would have brought Osuna on in the ninth if the Jays had scored 4 runs in the top of the inning to make it a blowout. 

My assumption is that managers make lineup decisions on a game-by-game basis with no input from general managers (except in matters of long-term importance like the Sanchez usage question).  I assume that Gibbons did not consult with Atkins or Shapiro before putting Barney in left-field in Arizona (a decision I gave him credit for) nor the one to start Navarro at DH against a RHP (which I, ahem, criticized mildly).

Did I mention how much I like Devon Travis?  The two fine defensive plays were one thing, but the double that scored Navarro was another. I am sure that he noticed how far Machado and Kim were from the line and was trying to shoot one there.  Givens is awfully tough on RHBs; it was impressive that Travis was able to execute a good plan in that situation.  Kim didn't handle the ball well- there's no way that Navarro scores if Kim comes up with it cleanly and gets it to Hardy in any kind of reasonable time. 

"But it would have been okay by you to have Navarro catch and Martin DH, resulting in a net zero improvement to the offense but weakening the defense. Much more sensical."


Um, yes? If he put Navarro at catcher and Martin at DH, then the "sensical" part would have been resting Martin for a game while keeping his bat in the lineup. There's absolutely logic behind that. Just like starting Barney at 3B and putting Donaldson at DH (for example) would have logic. If Martin was catching, then there was no need to use the back-up catcher at all, especially in this case as it forced the team to go with an inferior OF defense and they could have used the DH spot to rest one of their stars from playing the field (which is a large benefit to having a DH at all).

I honestly can't believe people are actually defending this. If any move would be universally agreed upon, I would think it would be all of us coming together and disagreeing with this one. But Gibbons clearly has his fans, I guess.

"Sanchez looked like he was down about 2 mph on all of his pitches. Fastballs at 93-94, not 95-96. Curves in the 75-76 range instead of 78. Didn't seem super sharp on location. Over 110 pitches."


His two seamers were around 92 to 93 in the 5th and 6th innings, and he was missing a lot of balls up. The swing and miss stuff wasn't there either. That's usually a sign of fatigue, which is why I was surprised he came back out for the 6th. Gibbons knows that Sanchez's workload is under heavy scrutiny by the front office so I'll give him the benefit the doubt on that decision, but I thought he could have gone with Feldman in the 6th (and maybe 7th if he pitched well). That's one advantage of having Feldman in the pen; he can go multiple innings. Maybe the BABIP inflated performances in his first two outings hurt Gibby's trust a bit, and Feldman has to gain it back. I think he is an asset out of the pen.

Overall it was a good game, but Sanchez didn't seem to have as much movement on his sinker as usual.
Speed was down as well.

I'm passed being frustrated by double play balls. However, I didn't like Encarnation watching a third strike with runners on second and third and nobody out.

The important thing with the relievers is winning games and staying healthy. Gibbons has established roles and I'm fine with that. Cecil is having a horrible walk off year. Biagini is great. He trains like a boxer and shadow pitches every day.

The cool thing with Scott Fieldman is that Baltimore traded Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop to get him and Clevenger.
Huge bullet dodged there.

The AL's dominance in interleague play continues.  The AL is 152-122 (with a 1332-1223 RS/RA to support that margin).  Does that mean the Blue Jays have had as good a season as the Cubs?  Probably not.  Does it mean that the Blue Jays have had a better season than the Nationals?  Probably. 

The Rangers are listed on various sites as having a 5-7% chance of winning the World Series (the Nationals for example are typically at 12-14%).  The Ranger figure is quite low and the Nationals figure (and all of the other NL contenders) somewhat high. 

And here's the latest on tropical storm Hermine, looking like it might end up as a hurricane making landfall north of Tampa on Friday morning. 

I wonder what J.K. Rowling would have said if they named it Hurricane Hermione.

Yep, Mike, espn's relative power index which looks at just win loss record plus strength of schedule (and opponents' stremgth of sked) has Washington well behind the top AL teams:

1.CHC .531
2.TEX .530
3.TOR .524
4.CLE .519
5.BAL .518
6.BOS .517
7.WSH .517
8.DET .513
9.NYY .510
10.KCR .510

Boy did the Red Sox screw up when they signed Panda and Ramirez.

I'm certainly not above gloating about that.  Anything to level the playing field in the stacked ALE.  And I genuinely think they may go with those two at DH next year, an added bonus. 

But Price has already earned $30.9 million according to Fangraphs this year with a month + the playoffs to go.  I think he's still going to opt out after 2018 leaving the deal a win for all parties.

"But Gibbons clearly has his fans, I guess."

Along with his fair share of detractors that treat his every move as a crime against humanity.

If the prevailing argument is that Navarro has no place hitting against RHP, especially in a pennant race then no, your acceptable lineup configuration was not a sensible alternative. Gibbons has done an excellent job of resting his veterans, utilizing days off and the DH position in doing so. In this game, the infield defence was obviously much more important with Sanchez starting, so keeping Martin behind the plate and sacrificing some outfield defense to field the best possible offence was prudent.

If Gibbons comes out today and proclaims Navarro his full-time DH, then I will be right there with you questioning his logic. However I have watched baseball long enough to realize I, like everyone else, knows nothing and that the baseball gods will have a hearty laugh at those that think otherwise. And lo and behold, if it wasn't Martin, Navarro, Saunders, and Bautista responsible for the lions share of the offence last night. All four of them, in the lineup at the same time.

September 1st is here and so are expanded rosters. It feels like the Jays have a fairly deep 40-man roster and stand to benefit more than other teams from having extra bench space. Who gets added?

Certainly: Barney (from brev. list)
Likely: Tepera, Schultz, Barnes, Ceciliani, Pompey, Thole** or Kratz** or Jiminez**.
Maybes: Loup, Girodo, Dermody**, Bolsinger, Colabello, Burns, Dominguez, Montero**, Lake**, Harold Ramirez
Long Shots: Tellez**, Diamond, Kotchman**, Antolin**.

** = Not on 40-man roster.

There's ~6 obvious choices and that doesn't include a 3rd catcher, a LHP, or 1B/DH/PH... so I suspect it will end up being 8-9 guys that get added for a very deep 33-34 man roster, which should give a slight advantage over other teams (especially in the division) with less depth.

For all the criticisms of Gibbons' managing of the bullpen, once again Gibbons has turned a collection of misfits into a pretty darn good pen, just like last year.

As for the Navarro whining - he was a good hitter for gibbons in the recent past, the other options were only marginally better at best, and the move clearly made for intangibky awesome reasons ended up being an intanigbly awesome welcome back.

I keep saying this - but assuming that gibbons isn't aware of and doesn't understand sabermetrics is probably a big mistake. He likely understands them (and their limits) better than us. This is a manager who bats elite sluggers 1-2-3 in the order, who doesn't hesitate to use rookies as his highest leverage relievers, and has shown time and time again that he can get big contributions from part time players with smart usage.



And if you were a fan that didn't think much of the jays' chances this year, and were speculating that a trade deadline selloff was a realistic possibility this year, you may want to ask yourself why you're criticizing the manager of a clearly overachieving 1st place team.

Davidi says four Bisons are joining tomorrow...Pompey, Tepera, Barnes and Dermody.

Others may follow after Monday. Schultz and Loup are not eligible to return until Monday as they were recently sent down.

Callups: Pompey, Tepera, Barnes, Dermody

Likely to be called back up when eligible (when AAA season ends): Loup, Schultz

To me the decision of Navarro DHing came down to deciding who should catch. I figure that at this point they don't want to mess with Sanchez' rhythm, so having Martin catch was preferable unless he was actually too hurt to play.

Otherwise, he could have also put Bautista or Saunders in the DH role. But with Sanchez, a ground ball pitcher throwing it was likely going to be pretty easy going in the field regardless. And with the off day tomorrow everyone's getting rested anyways. Encarnacion could have DH'ed, but he seems to be doing just fine as a 1B and doesn't seem to be hurting much.

He could have also used Smoak, Upton, or Carrera. But why not use Navarro? It's clear that Gibby likes him as a hitter, and why not? He's nothing special, but in his full season here (with Gibbons at the helm) he hit at a league average pace, with good walk / SO numbers. Also, though it's a small sample size Navarro has killed it as a DH over the last few years: he's hit .323 in those 143 plate appearances, with a 13% SO rate. Maybe it's small sample noise, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he just hits better as a DH. He's clearly not in particularly good shape (did anyone see him run yesterday?) and DHing probably gives him more time to think about the offensive part of the game.

I personally think there's enough stuff here to make this a defensible / average move on the part of Gibbons. It's not "the best move ever" or the "worst move ever", it's just a move.

Dermody is something of a surprise but I guess he's the best lefty option left in the org, even with those troublesome Buffalo numbers.  Good for him and the org - there is value in drafting college guys in the late rounds of the draft with the bullpen in mind. 

Pompey, Tepera and Barnes are no-brainers. 

did we re-sign Thole?

"If the prevailing argument is that Navarro has no place hitting against RHP, especially in a pennant race then no, your acceptable lineup configuration was not a sensible alternative. Gibbons has done an excellent job of resting his veterans, utilizing days off and the DH position in doing so. In this game, the infield defence was obviously much more important with Sanchez starting, so keeping Martin behind the plate and sacrificing some outfield defense to field the best possible offence was prudent."


My opinion is Navarro should not have started at all last night. He's not a good player and against RHP he's historically very poor. With that said, if they wanted to start both him and Martin together, then simply flipping the two would have at least made sense since the explanation could have been wanting to rest Martin but keep his bat in the lineup. Otherwise, if Martin was going to catch, then either Smoak should have been at 1B or Upton should have been in the OF with Navarro on the bench. If a lefty was starting for the O's, then I may have been easier on the decision (though Upton should have started in that scenario), but against a righty? Not a good move. It worked out since he went 2-4 and somehow went 1st to home on a double, but that doesn't mean the move made sense to begin with.

I am not a Gibbons fan, but I don't go out of my way to bash him. However, any criticism of Gibbons, whether by me or someone else, is usually met with a lot of white knighting. It's OK as a fan to disagree with a move. It doesn't mean we are calling for his firing or anything.

"And if you were a fan that didn't think much of the jays' chances this year, and were speculating that a trade deadline selloff was a realistic possibility this year, you may want to ask yourself why you're criticizing the manager of a clearly overachieving 1st place team."


I'm not sure if this was directed at me, but if it was, then I would suggest reading the off-season topics again. I was one of the more positive posters here about the team's chances in 2016 and how the front office was doing the right thing (while others were complaining about not signing Price, not capitalizing on last season's success, etc, etc). My posts about selling were strictly a hypothetical if they were out of it at the deadline; not something I was expecting to happen if the talent played to their abilities.

Gibbons has good qualities, but he's not managing an overachieving club. Maybe the SP has overachieved, but the talent was always there to win this season. Saying a back-up catcher who can't hit righties should not DH against a righty is not condemning a manager. It's a pretty logical complaint. I'm not sure why some of you have decided to make that leap. You can like a manager and still disagree with a decision. I like the new FO but dislike the Smoak extension. See how easy it is?

Also, John Farrell and Ned Yost are the last two AL managers to win World Series titles. I'm not sure what bringing up wins has to do with the quality of a manager (though I'd take Gibby over both of them easily). I hope this forum is not turning into that, otherwise Cito can flash his rings and avoid criticism forever.

"....I honestly can't believe people are actually defending this....."

If you'd like to disagree with the Navarro move, you're free to do so. Several Bauxites have done so.  But to tell everyone else that we shouldn't even defend the move is ridiculous.  The simple fact that Navarro got 2 hits last night (and scored a key run) is evidence that the move was, at a minimum, defensible. Navarro has often been a clutch hitter for the Jays over the years, and the idea of occasionally putting him in the lineup ahead of Upton or Smoak is not very difficult to defend.  Now if Gibbons had put him at DH for three consecutive games, and Navarro had gone 0-for-12 in those games, it would have been less defensible.  But it's not difficult to defend the decision of last night when it manifestly achieved its goals.

"...Gibbons clearly has his fans, I guess....."

Including his peers, the MLB managers, who ranked him as the 3rd-best manager in the league this year.

Source:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/major-league-best-tools/#tDmdOlwcEirIPVc5.97

The organization is obviously tissue thin in left-handed pitching that can be called to the majors. Not a knock on the kid who got called up, but there is obviously not much to choose from. I suspect there is not much faith in Loup.

Can we let the Dioner Navarro thing go? SK, I'm hardly an uncritical Gibbons supporter, and I thought it was a good move so I don't think it's fair to say that it's just Gibbons fans who disagree with you. As I said, guys who join the organization shouldn't be left to languish on the bench, and it brought a left-handed bat where there would have been only one otherwise. I can see your side, that there may have been a better hitter available, but I didn't see any budding Ted Williams being made to sit, so any difference was fairly marginal. It worked out well and Gibbons deserved credit in my view for the move.

If Thole is re-signed, will he get to DH on Friday?

"....My assumption is that managers make lineup decisions on a game-by-game basis with no input from general managers (except in matters of long-term importance like the Sanchez usage question)....."

I think it's generally known that a manager has a conversation with his GM at least once per day during the season.  That's not just to discuss long-term personnel decisions -- it's also to discuss the best usage of his existing players.  They might not discuss the nitty-gritty of whether Pillar should bat 7th or 8th, but the conversation could certainly include the question of whether a newly acquired player should be purely a back-up catcher or whether he might occasionally have other uses in the lineup.

In 2014 and 2015, Gibbons used Navarro as the DH in 32 separate games.  Obviously it's a move that Gibbons has occasionally liked to do.  If Atkins and Shapiro believed it was a stupid move, they would obviously tell Gibbons not to do it.  Why would Gibbons put Navarro at DH if he suspected that Shapiro and Atkins might disagree with it?  I don't know about you, but most of us wage-slaves don't like to deliberately annoy our boss.  We don't make a potentially provocative decision if we think the boss disagrees with it. 

Conclusion:  Gibbons knew that his bosses didn't have a problem with him putting Navarro at DH.  It's the kind of move that, almost certainly, he had discussed with his bosses, at least in general terms.

"....If I recall correctly, the excessive pitching changes was part of the ESPN consideration in giving Gibbons the low rating he received among current managers..."

You're wrong in almost every word of this sentence.  First of all, the ESPN thing (unlike the Baseball America survey) was not a survey of "current managers."  It was a "survey" of "50 scouts, front-office executives, big league coaches and media analysts."   Note the vagueness of this.  No attempt to be comprehensive or precise in the survey.  Just a bunch of people -- including "media analysts" -- who seemed to be easy to round up.  Why would I care what "media analysts" think about Gibbons?  Why would I care what "scouts" think about Gibbons, since their job is to analyze players, not managers?

Second, there's no evidence that Gibbons got a low rating on anything, let alone "excessive pitching changes" (a category that didn't even exist in the survey, actually).  And there's no evidence that the survey was designed to give low ratings to anyone.  In fact, in this very casual sham of a survey, it seems that ESPN simply asked a bunch of people to give top-of-mind answers to questions about which manager is "best" in a bunch of categories.  The survey doesn't indicate how many answers were permitted -- but probably just one or two.  Obviously this favored the more famous or prominent managers on the more famous teams.  There was nothing to indicate that the "survey respondents" (whoever they were) disliked Gibbons in any way -- he just didn't pop to mind when asked who is "the best" in several categories.  That's an absurd way of trying to "rank" the managers, and I don't think any of us should give any weight to it.

Finally, note that the ESPN thing was done in the early months of 2015 -- when the Jays weren't even perceived as a contending team.  I would give a lot more weight to the 2016 survey by Baseball America, which at least was based on a comprehensive survey of every manager.

the funny thing with all this Navarro whining is the fact that it all comes down to the fact that upton and smoak - 2 guys we just committed to for multi years - kinda stink.

because make no mistake, statistically speaking, navarro was not a significantly worse choice last night than either of them.

DbDC, fair enough. We will agree to disagree on the Navarro thing.

Yesterday's game is done, but just to be clear about Dioner Navarro batting left-handed,  here's his career line by season. He hits for a poor average.  He doesn't walk.  He doesn't hit for power.  When he does get on base, he's slower than molasses. He has a pretty decent line for a back-up catcher, and that's about it.  Navarro hits about as well as Ezequiel Carrera against RHP.

Batting right-handed, it's a different story.  Navarro hits for a decent average and he hits for power.  I wouldn't recommend using him as a DH, but the vehemence would be gone.

Most switch-hitters are better hitting left-handed by their mid 30s (presumably because they get more practice batting left).  Not so for Navarro.

CF, you missed this years ranking, which was done by Schoenfield and Kahrl, not the gang of 50.

They ranked Gibbons dead last.

30. John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays (2004-2008, 2013-2016)
Career record: 618-588, minus-29 Pythagorean wins.
BIS 2016 Snapshot: He avoids the intentional walk, ranking fourth in the league in fewest issued. The Jays rank close to the bottom in platoon percentage on their lineup cards, but that's this year's talent; Gibbons has built good platoons before. He's also one of the guys most likely to use multiple relievers within an inning, as his pen men are last in the league in outs per outing.
Comment: Gibbons gets good marks as a manager of people as opposed to being a master tactician, which is great. A guy's record in one-run games is supposed to be a heads-or-tails proposition, but Gibbons comes out on the losing side of that claim with alarming regularity; the Blue Jays are 33 games under .500 in one-run games in his latest incarnation as the Jays' skipper. The Jays are also second-worst in MLB in replay challenges overturned, and that was already a problem for them and for Gibbons before this season. Put that together, and if you're a Blue Jays fan worrying about their chances in the postseason, you have reason.

Huh. I'd never even heard of Matt Dermody before yesterday. Drafted three times, never higher than the 23rd round, and went unsigned in '09, '11, and '12 before the Jays finally signed him in 2013, probably because he was a college senior and had nowhere else to go. He didn't look like much until this year, as he's always been old for whatever level he's been pitching at, but this year he was dominant at both Dunedin and New Hampshire, and held his own in Buffalo. Small samples all, but promising results.

Nice pickup for the Jays as most guys drafted that late never make it as far as AAA. Classic underdog - I'll be rooting for him.

Uglyone, Smoak is obviously a considerably better hitter than Navarro batting left-handed.  You can argue that Smoak has had trouble with Gallardo's stuff.  Incidentally, now that Pompey is up, I wonder if he'll get some DH opportunities.  He's probably better than Navarro from the left-side of the plate!

It was a bad decision that worked out swimmingly.  Fortunately, Gibbons hasn't made any other decisions this year like this one, as far as I am concerned. 

In my above post, "DbDC" should have been "CbDC".

Also, Thole has been re-signed and Travis optioned to Bluefield (he'll be back on Friday). I wonder how many people on Twitter overreacted seeing "Travis" and "optioned" in the same sentence without the context.

one thing that navarro doesn't do, that Smoak and upton do and has been a problem for the whole team this year, is strike out.

here's the combined fangraphs rest of season projections for the record:


Smoak 27.4k%, 93wrc+
Upton 28.8k%, 83wrc+
Navarro 18.2k%, 81wrc+

and one thing gibbons likes to do is use platoons according to pitch type - that's how he got smoak to look good last year, by not playing him against guys with good breaking balls. Navarro also was a good breaking ball hitter for the jays in his last stint, so the gallardo matchup made sense - regardless of the tiny head to head sample (which was bad of course, which funnily goes against all the other criticisms of gibby valuing head to head stats).

A point that hasn't been made about Navarro - there's a lot of complaining out there about the Jays' strikeout tendencies, so I do think Gibby wants to see how the lineup looks with a new lefty down at the bottom, taking out some of that Smoak/Upton swing and miss. If you recognize those players for what they are and don't overrate their defense, the overall difference in the lineup is marginal.

Speaking of Ks, our favourite Ranger Rougned Odor now has 112 of them to go along with his 13 walks. He's hit 27 HR. Perhaps Magpie has some interesting data on players with seasons that had more HRs than BBs.

I like how you think. Sometimes.

"....It was a bad decision that worked out swimmingly...."

Or, in the view of many of us, it was a defensible decision, made for understandable reasons, and vindicated by the results.

(Since people are usually quick to criticize a manager's decision on the grounds that it didn't achieve its goal, it's equally logical for us to defend a decision on the basis that it did achieve its goal.)

Yeah, I gotta hand it to Navarro in that regard - he doesn't strike out that much, and I do love guys who can put the ball in play. On the other hand, hitting into double plays has kinda stung the Jays this year.

No matter what, Navarro is a huge upgrade over Thole. Never mind that a lot of NL pitchers are an upgrade over Thole. ;)

"the funny thing with all this Navarro whining is the fact that it all comes down to the fact that upton and smoak - 2 guys we just committed to for multi years - kinda stink."


Upton 'stinks' if you ignore defense, base running, and the past two seasons. He's an average at best hitter, with splits more suited to face lefties, but that doesn't mean he stinks. He's also been a better offensive player than Navarro the past two seasons, by a significant margin. I don't know how you can cite WAR in some cases yet ignore it in others (ex. Upton playing the outfield presents more value than Navarro at CA or DH).

Smoak is replacement level at best, but against RHP, he's a better option than Navarro. We are talking about a league average bat against RHP (Smoak) vs. an awful bat against RHP (Navarro). Against LHP, that changes.

I won't talk about the decision last night since that's beaten to death, but suggesting that Navarro is the best bat on the Jays bench is erroneous. I'd take Barney, Upton, and Smoak over him in most situations.

Though, to the Jays' credit, they have turned more DP's this year than they've grounded into - 125 vs. 120. Another thing I love - solid up-the-middle infield defense.

Though, I will agree that Navarro's ability to not K often is definitely a positive, especially with this season's high K tendencies.

I just wish he could have made contact on Wade Davis last October.

Navarro hits the fastball better than any other pitch, save (perhaps) the knuckler. He has a much worse record against sliders and curveballs than Smoak (and Smoak's isn't great).

It does get in my craw when people defend Navarro for what he is not good at.  He's not a clutch hitter.  He's not a good hitter against RHP.  He's somewhere between Thole and Goins in value.  No one's suggesting that Goins ever see the DH role, and in fact Gibbons has been criticized (on much thinner ground in my view) for not pinch-hitting with Goins at the plate and a RH pitcher on the mound.  

"....He's somewhere between Thole and Goins in value...."

Thole's OPS over the past 3 seasons:  .526
Goins OPS over the past 3 seasons:  .596
Navarro's OPS over the past 3 seasons:  .677

Navarro is obviously a much better hitter than either Thole or Goins.  And he has additional value from his proven ability to help the Jays pitching staff.

Upton, by the way, has an OPS of .678 over the past 3 seasons -- virtually identical to Navarro in that same time period. 

Justin Smoak's OPS over the past 2 months has been .654.

Of course I'm not saying that Navarro is a better hitter than Upton or Smoak.  Because of Upton's speed, I'd obviously rather have Upton in the lineup.  And obviously OPS is a very crude measure that doesn't account for specific matchups against specific kinds of pitchers, platoon advantages etc.  But Upton can't play every day, and Smoak shouldn't play every day.  Nothing wrong with occasionally having Navarro in the lineup instead of one of them.

I know this is endemic to the Baux, but I find all this whinging about Navarro vis-a-vis other bottom-of-the-lineup hitters a bit absurd, as the Jays are in FIRST PLACE BY 2 GAMES ON SEPTEMBER 1st in EASILY THE MOST COMPETITIVE DIVISION IN BASEBALL. Oh yeah, and are 19 GAMES ABOVE .500 -- and the roster is healthy compared to the competition.

Who could have predicted this, especially with the FO turmoil of last off-season? I know 20 years of mediocrity may have inured some of us to hope-for-the-best-but-expect-the-worst, but this splitting of hairs seems to be overshadowing the fact that 26 other teams (and their fans) are envying where the Jays are currently positioned in 2016.

Being cynical is so 1994-2014.

Best post of the day.

"Upton 'stinks' if you ignore defense, base running, and the past two seasons. H"

nah,even if you include that.

This Year: 88wrc+, 1.9war/650
Last 2yrs: 95wrc+, 2.7war/650
Last 3yrs: 86wrc+, 1.7war/650
Last 4yrs: 78wrc+, 1.0war/650
Last 5yrs: 86wrc+, 1.6war/650

Toss out the high and the low there ane I think we have a pretty good idea of what he is - decent bench piece, but not a guy you want to rely on as a fulltime starter.

I think you have to recalibrate your Valu-e-meter, Mike.

Last 5yrs

Navarro 96wrc+, 2.3fwar/650
Barney 72wrc+, 2.0fwar/650
Upton 86wrc+, 1.6fwar/650
Carrera 84wrc+, 0.7fwar/650
Goins 61wrc+, 0.4fwar/650
Smoak 97wrc+, 0.2fwar/650
Thole 52wrc+, -1.1fwar/650

Last 3yrs:

Barney 86wrc+, 3.0fwar/650
Upton 86wrc+, 1.7fwar/650
Navarro 85wrc+, 1.5fwar/650
Carrera 82wrc+, 0.9fwar/650
Smoak 95wrc+, 0.4fwar/650
Goins 61wrc+, 0.1fwar/650
Thole 48wrc+, -1.6fwar/650

Navarro's right there with anyone outside our 8 clear starters, and way above the likes of goins and thole.

Now sure there's a chance that this year was him falling off a cliff that he'll never bounce back from, but I'm guessing probably not.

Who could have predicted this, especially with the FO turmoil of last off-season? I know 20 years of mediocrity may have inured some of us to hope-for-the-best-but-expect-the-worst, but this splitting of hairs seems to be overshadowing the fact that 26 other teams (and their fans) are envying where the Jays are currently positioned in 2016.

Being cynical is so 1994-2014.

I apologize once again for my cynical 102 win projection at the beginning of the year.  Or hopelessly optimistic.  One of those.

fWAR and bWAR have a different account of the value of Navarro' and Goins' defence.  bWAR has Navarro at 7.6 WAR over his long career and 2.5 WAR over the last 3 years (900 PAs).  bWAR has Goins at 3.3 WAR over his career (920 PAs).  I tend to prefer bWAR because I like DRS more than UZR.  If you want to argue that Navarro is a better player than Goins, you can certainly do that.  There's no question that I would rather have him in the lineup facing a left-handed pitcher than Goins. That wouldn't be close. 

Never bet against the good vibes. Maintaining the good vibes for 162 games is virtually impossible, but...

Given there will be no more trades (most likely) until the offseason, given we have 3 key free agents (Saunders, Bautita, Encarnacion), and a payroll increase who do the Jays chase down?

Free agents via MLB Trade Rumours

• Yoenis Cespedes - will be after over $25 per on a long term deal, 149 OPS+ this year, CF/LF has reached 4.0 WAR before, entering age 31 season. More tempting than any of our 3 free agents but will cost more too. Had trouble getting a good deal last winter so might not be as expensive as one would think.
• Ian Desmond - played CF/LF this year after being a SS for years. Has yet to reach 4 WAR in a season but normally in the 3's. I'm a firm 'meh' to him as we have a great SS already and a good CF. Anywhere else his value plumets.
• Justin Turner - A 3B/1B entering his age 32 season who has a solid bat and is a 3+ WAR guy with just the bat. Never has reached 5 WAR but decent none the less if he is willing to go to 1B full time. Probably too expensive as someone will need him at 3B.
• Mark Trumbo - here is a very tempting guy - plays RF and cranked 40 HR so far for the O's, so would be hurting a division rival while helping the team. Entering age 31 season just 1.0 WAR despite the HR as his defense is very suspect.

The bats become bad after that. so I suspect the Jays will chase down a trade instead to upgrade. Braun & Votto immediately come to mind as guys who are very much on the trading block and have very good bats.

Or we go with kids and question marks like Colabello, Tellez, Upton, Carrera, Pompey, etc. while hoping EE or Bautista resigns.

Sorry, was that 102-win prediction before or after you computed that there was a 5% chance of Sanchez turning into an ace? I can't remember.

That article by Karhl and Schoenfield was pure drivel. No explanation of methodology, implying vague statistical reasoning despite contradictory explanations and narratives. Do you know who else was among the most likely to use multiple relievers in an inning? A couple of gentlemen named Bochy and Maddon. Gibbons was ranked due to his pythagorean record, end of story.

Sorry, was that 102-win prediction before or after you computed that there was a 5% chance of Sanchez turning into an ace? I can't remember.

Before the season began, I indicated that I felt that Sanchez' physicality had changed after the work with Nikki Huffman in the off-season and that I was optimistic about him.  I also felt that the Jay starting pitchers were going to do much better than projected as a whole because of the quality of  the Jay defence and the presence of Russell Martin.  Fangraphs had projected the Jays defensive BABIP as about .305 and that struck me as ridiculous. 

I'm not claiming any great Nostradamal ability.  I do plead "not guilty" to cynicism though.  There are evidently people who treat one (probably overly harshly worded) criticism of a manager as an occasion for all kinds of defences of him, as though it mattered to him what one person says.  It's kind of bizarre given that I think that he's a B- manager at this point.  Most managers will make one idiotic (bizarre or whatever you want to call it) move in a season, and some will make them over and over again.

I prefer Gibbons to Ned Yost, and Yost has done pretty well for himself.

So, professional analysts should be discounted, based on the "non-drivel" of some random poster on a baseball forum. Yeah. Got it.

It's really quite remarkable that with the talent the Jays have, someone can actually advance the theory that the Jays are good BECAUSE of John Gibbons, rather than DESPITE of him.

I never understood the sentiment that since things are going well that we cannot discuss things. I think we are all happy the team is winning, but Gibbons made a decision some of us (well, Mike and I) did not agree with, and we just expressed that. A little debate back and forth isn't a bad thing. We should be happy the discussion is about something as trivial as Navarro at DH for a game rather than a bigger issue.

Lord knows I'd take this debate over anything involving David Price and/or AA (I have a feeling we are not anywhere close to done discussing the latter).

I was way off about Sanchez (I thought he should have started in the minors as a SP to work on things or in the pen prior to spring training), but looking back, my assessment in Feb was fairly accurate:

"Well, it would be a broken record coming from me, but I thought Shapiro/Atkins played this off-season extremely well. The team is in good position to make the playoffs again. All their moves were designed to add wins in 2016, while not hurting the team beyond 2016, and that's exactly what the off-season strategy should have been. All prospects and picks were kept. We can only wait and see how it all plays out, but I like this team. It will be a dogfight in the East, though."

Not quite as bold as 102 wins, though. My memory might be fuzzy, but I think most posters were optimistic about the season, it was just the excessive negativity (unwarranted IMO) towards the front office that seemed to cloud a lot of things.

Even when a team is having a great season, that doesn't mean that everything the Manager or FO does is great - it's kind of that love everything about our country or leave it mentality - I think it's perfectly reasonable to discuss/question moves that you disagree with, regardless of how well the team is playing or how well regarded the Manager/FO are.

You confuse speaking in absolutes about indefensible decisions with an actual discussion about the manager's move, and it shows when you call people "white knights" immediately for disagreeing.

As (apparently) one of the White Knights of Gibbons' Diamond Table, I find no issue with the criticisms of managerial decisions nor look to defend every perceived slight. Like everyone the man is far from perfect. It is rather the tone that too often permeates the discussions that offends. Gibbons is regularly portrayed as a rube, implicitly and explicitly in equal measure. It becomes tiresome. After all, I imagine the Box's fourth ground rule was established for a reason. Not accusing you of the behaviour Mike, but rather explaining my apparently all too common position in these discussions.

It's not like there could be any legitimate reason for Gibbons' portrayal as a dumbass AA rube...

There is something fundamentally wrong with society when the insistence is that equal weight be given to both sides of an argument.

I've never been cynical about the Jays FO or players -- even JP. Rogers yes, cynicism has been and still might be a defensible attitude toward that corporation.

I would describe my attitude toward the Jays in this century as "3rd place fatalism" until their great run last year. Now after over a calendar year of good baseball, I'm aiming for cautious optimism.

Also -- why the yelling? Does that MAKE THE STANDINGS MORE TRUE? If you don't like the hair-splitting and looking at the minutiae then don't read the posts here. It is not whining, it is what happens here. Accept the things you can not change and let people post what they want. If it is not your cup of tea then go drink red bull or coffee. Load of places to stoke your fandom. Searching #ourmoment or #cometogether on twitter will get you what you need. Have fun. Its a pastime.

"So, professional analysts should be discounted, based on the "non-drivel" of some random poster on a baseball forum. Yeah. Got it."

Well that certainly was a comprehensive rebuttal to my assertion. Thank you for your insight Parker. As always it was illuminating.

Man, those Alberta fumes must really be toxic...Joe Torre was 894-1003 before he took over the World Series Champion Yankees in 1996, by the way; maybe the Jays can get him to manage.

To clarify my earlier comment, I am certainly not saying that criticizing Gibby is off-limits; he is no La Russa and one could argue that last year's team UNDERachieved (if that's possible being an LCS finalist) under his watch. And I do enjoy the back-and-forth on Navarro and other managerial decisions, well, up to a point.

It's just that what's getting overlooked is that the franchise is so-far overwhelmingly successful for a second year in a row, and, as opposed to Yost, it doesn't seem to me that the team is winning IN SPITE of Gibby. The players seem to respond well to him, JD-irritability notwithstanding, and where the standings are now they are looking like repeat AL East Champs, even without an injection of trade deadline studs in the form of a Price or a Tulo.

And yes, we will probably be debating AA until Syndergaard retires and then some, much as the Young/Voldemort trade will plague Gord Ash (and us) forevermore.

If I advance the argument that the world is flat, and another person argues that it is actually round, should equal weight be given to both sides of the argument?

If a manager who has never held any other position of any authority in MLB, and whose biggest defenders can only say that at best, he's a good "man manager", helms a series of baseball teams that start at .500 and continue to decline until the talent level of the organization is significantly improved by the front office, has that manager all of a sudden become competent and successful? Baseball teams have succeeded with awful, terrible managers in the past - the players just DON'T PAY ANY ATTENTION TO THE IDIOT SITTING IN THAT CHAIR. They just go out and play baseball. Gibbons can do all the Boomhauer impersonations that he wants to, but the players on the field are the ones getting the job done... despite the manager's awful tactical decisions and mumbling redneck narrative.

Now people who like Gibbons believe the Earth is flat? Haha, wow.

That's a wrap folks. Nothing to see here, or at least nothing to accomplish. Go, spend some time outside. Take a walk, learn a language, pet a strange cat, spend time with your loved ones. Or just do anything else. The hours that we've spent having a flame war about Dioner Navarro hitting DH versus a righty in one game that we ended up winning could have been better spent just about anywhere.

https://xkcd.com/386/

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/analogy

There was a great article by Bill James years ago saying that the #1 thing a manager can do is put the right guys on the field. For the most part Gibbons has been doing that. Navarro as DH worked for a day, Upton has hit poorly here thus is a 4th outfielder as he should be. Carrera is the #5 guy. Barney has played well (for a backup) and has had the most playing time among backups.

On the pitching side, not much argument about the rotation. The pen has been a challenge but he quickly shifted from Storen to Osuna right away in spring rather than sticking with the vet being paid well. Then used rule 5 guy Biagini instead of Storen as Storen kept sucking. Mixed Grilli in quickly despite his struggles in Atlanta this year. An assortment of others have been discarded quickly while trying to find the gems in bush until now we have a solid 6-7-8-9 setup (Biagini, Benoit, Grilli, Osuna).

Really, Gibbons has done a good job juggling what he has all year until he figured out who was right for what role, ignoring age and dollars paid to do so. Putting Bautista in the leadoff hole was a shocker but he stuck with it. His 351 OBP fits there nicely only Donaldson is visibly higher (Saunders & EE are both in the same range).

Maybe we can get Tomi Lahren to chime in on the Gibbons/Navarro debate

Jesus, that's what I've been saying this whole time... Kapernick... the US sucks so bad? Then f**king leave. Oh wait. It's the only country in the world that'd give you the stage you need to do your little crybaby BS. Go somewhere where people aren't dying in the streets etc. etc. Best of luck working for minimum wage, because the country you hate so much is the only place in the world where you can make a living as a professional backup QB. Get the f**k out and have a nice life flipping burgers for a living anywhere else in the world.

The Jays should hire this broad to replace Gibbons. She actually speaks fluent English and she's not too hard on the eyes. That's more than you can say for Boomhauer.

How much longer do we need to listen to a poster that admits to trolling others, uses profanity, and has been racist, sexist and classist on a semi-regular basis? 

"This broad"?  "Not too hard on the eyes"?

Parker, please stop being so hateful.  Enough is enough. 

There is something fundamentally wrong with society when the insistence is that equal weight be given to both sides of an argument.

I always thought the idea was to give equal TIME to both sides of an argument, not equal weight..

Sorry, jerjapan. I don't know how many times I've been told to not call chicks broads.

How have I been racist, though?

"You confuse speaking in absolutes about indefensible decisions with an actual discussion about the manager's move, and it shows when you call people "white knights" immediately for disagreeing."


Well there is clearly a pattern of certain posters running to Gibby's defense over any criticism, mild or otherwise, directed his way. It's typically the same posters every time. I wasn't labeling everyone who agreed with Navarro at DH a "white knight", but rather the select few who would find a way to rationalize Gibbons putting Goins at DH if ever happened. You guys certainly have the right to feel that way, I have biases too, but Gibby being immune to criticism is not a fair stance, IMO. We can still discuss it.

Parker, you referred to Jose Reyes wife as a 'baby mama'. 

"It's not like there could be any legitimate reason for Gibbons' portrayal as a dumbass AA rube..."

it's a wonderful act he's got going. You think he's Verbal Kint, but he's really Soze.

"So, professional analysts should be discounted, based on the "non-drivel" of some random poster on a baseball forum. Yeah. Got it."

well my nondrivel, at least.

Parker, you referred to Jose Reyes wife as a 'baby mama'.

Um... reference, please?

I might have assigned that term to the unfortunate woman he beat the crap out of without ever answering to any criminal charges, but to the best of my knowledge, Jose Reyes is not biologically capable of being anyone's baby mama.

I wasn't a fan of Gibbons when he was managing a bad team, but as a winning manager, he's actually not bad.
I like the predictable way he's using the bullpen and the unpredictable way he's finding at-bats for the backup guys.

Wait. Oh, right. They're married. Excuse me for dismissing a woman who would eschew criminal justice against her aggressor in favor of eventually collecting a big cash payout. I might be wrong, but I don't believe sexism has anything to do with that. Greed? Avarice? A complete disregard for justice? Yes. Definitely. If Jose Reyes' boyfriend had done the same thing, I would've been just as judgmental about it.

I'm kind of curious about your motivation behind jumping all over the man vs. woman argument. Et tu, jerjapan?

Zwelling tweets that Stroman will start Friday night, so the team is ending their new college tradition of Francisco Liriano, the Friday night starter. Estrada apparently has good numbers in TB and Saturday would be his regular rest, or they could start him Sunday so he'd be pitching on 4 days rest to kick off the Red Sox series. I really like the flexibility everybody is showing with this 6 man rotation so far, and the fact that they're going right after these "soft" games. It will help them be 4-5 games up before the final series in Boston even begins.

it's a wonderful act he's got going. You think he's Verbal Kint, but he's really Soze.

Oh, wow. Just wow. Now we're really getting into it. Make the point that Gibbons isn't an idiot. Fine. He just sounds and acts like one. But comparing him to the most ruthless and unstoppable criminal mastermind in the history of Western cinema? Please.

"....That article by Karhl and Schoenfield was pure drivel. No explanation of methodology, implying vague statistical reasoning despite contradictory explanations and narratives...."

I hadn't even realized that ESPN had published TWO crappy articles that supposedly rank the MLB managers.   I had been referring to this "survey" from last year:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/13186480/who-mlb-best-manager-survey-says       But it turns out that the Karhl/Schoenfield one on Aug. 9 was equally bad.  Here's a good takedown of that one:  http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/8/9/is-john-gibbons-the-worst-manager-in-baseball-because-that-s-what-some-dumb-espn-com-thing-says

And while we might be fed up with the Gibbons debate by now, I can't help remembering that a lot of fans have attacked Gibbons because of his one-run losses.  The number-crunchers at 538 have recently tackled the issue of one-run losses (focusing on the Rangers this season, who have a 30-8 record in one-run games).  They analyzed a bunch of numbers and concluded that the main reasons for one-run wins are:  random luck; and -- in distant second place, with a very faint correlation -- bullpen strength.  And then a third faintly related factor:  clutch performance. But in all cases, there is a tendency for one-run victories to regress to the mean.  And in the entire lengthy 538 analysis, there's not a word to suggest that the manager's abilities are a significant factor in one-run wins or losses.

Here's the source:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-texas-rangers-are-making-unsustainable-history-in-one-run-games/

"....Gibby being immune to criticism is not a fair stance...."

I don't think anyone suggests that Gibby should be immune to criticism.  He certainly gets a lot of criticism from many Bauxites and a ton of fans on every other Jays website. But a debate consists of two sides.  So, in addition to criticism, it should be okay to defend him as well.   That's what produces a debate.   People can demean this as "white knights" if they want, but I don't see anything wrong with a debate between two sides when we're discussing Gibby's decisions.  A lot of the criticism of Gibbons is actually well-reasoned and thoughtful. (Not all of it, but a lot of it.)  And I think we honor Gibby's critics by taking them seriously and debating them. It illuminates the issues. From heat, perhaps, eventually comes light.

Criticizing him as a "redneck" who "sounds stupid," however, seems a little beyond the bounds of fairness.

All I know about Gibbons is that it's September 1st and the Jays are 19 games above .500.If they had a "good" manager would they be 30 games above .500 ? 40 games ? I doubt it. I think in this age of athletes with inflated salaries and inflated egos to match, maybe a manager who can keep a harmonious clubhouse and have everybody pulling in the same direction is an undervalued skill.
As well, maybe we bitch about the manager because it's something we actually feel we could do. If Jose Bautista strikes out on a fastball down the middle, we don't sit at home or in the stands and say," I could have hit that," because we know we couldn't. However, if a manager calls in a reliever and he gets shelled, we can't help thinking to ourselves, " I wouldn't have done that. What a stupid move !" Maybe Gibbons strategies cost the Jays a few wins, but maybe he does things behind the scenes that win a few games. I think Gibbon's teams play to their capabilities. When they have poor players, they are below .500. If they have better players then they are well above .500. There are only a handful of truly great managers in baseball history. Gibbons isn't one of them, but he's doing a perfectly adequate job in my mind.
t one of them

maybe we bitch about the manager because it's something we actually feel we could do.

No "maybe" about it. The manager is like our stand-in, our representative on the team. But when we think about doing his job, we generally only think about the fun stuff.

When people complain about how Gibbons talks - they're missing the point of the exercise. Gibbons doesn't open his mouth to share his theory of life or baseball or tactics. He has a different objective. It's to keep the world off his back. And his routine, however authentic or not it is, actually works for him. It's certainly a more effective piece of personal public relations than Cito Gaston's instinctive suspicion and distrust of everyone outside his clubhouse, whom he generally believed - and often with good reason - were out to cause problems for him, and by extension, his team.

So far, apart from adjective-laced posts about "crappy" and "drivel", I've not seen a criticism of Karhl's commentary. Certainly not one that merits a response. Nate Silver's sample of 38 games is quite different from Gibbons' sample of more than four hundred. Karhl and Silver would both quickly point that out. An effort was made here recently to explain the very basics of probability, and it was apparent to this reader that the effort was unsuccessful.

I think most everyone thinks Gibbons is a personable and likeable guy. But I've not seen much thoughtfulness, as opposed to defensiveness, invested in the extensive and rather reflexive promotion he receives from some here.

I have a series in a hurricane to go to.

Not so much to keep the world off his back as to keep the world (media) off his players backs. A key job for any manager is to be the lightning rod for all attacks so the players can focus on the game. Cito Gaston was great at that. Another key talent is to keep players happy be they bench or regulars - again a key Cito skill and I think Gibbons is strong on both. Jays are up to 133 games, no one has played more than 131 (Encarnacion who mainly DH'ed them). Barney has been the #1 backup all year. Barney's longest bench stretch has been 5 games so he never really had much of a reason to complain. Carerra has also been around most of the year and other than a DL stint his most games missed also has been 5 (twice). So the top 2 backups never are glued to the bench of course, injuries to Travis and Bautista helped force that situation but still there have been lots of times Gibbons could've run the regulars into the ground and didn't. That is a sign of a good manager.

Really zoom out and acknowledge that in a 30-team league, the average franchise should make a deep run to the World Series maybe once in a generation or a a bit less.  That's why, as a native Sarnian, I accepted the decision of a good number of my neighbours to hold their old Detroit loyalties after we finally got a team in non-French-speaking Canada in '77.  You've gotta like your odds if you stick with a team that went to the World Series in '45, '68, '84, '06 and '12.   Anyway, we're likely going to have another go at it again this year and anything could happen.  Unless you work for the organization and can somehow impact the outcome of games over the next two months, my suggestion is to breathe, enjoy watching a good team play reasonably well, and hope for the best.  Worst case scenario here, my hapless local NCAA DI side is back on the field on February 19.  Go Racers!

If the Jays do make the playoffs again this year, I'll stay home so as not to jinx them again.  At 12, I saw game 3 of the 1991 ALCS (a 3-2 loss to the Twins) and at 13 I saw game 5 of the 1992 WS (a 7-2 loss to the Braves).  For the latter we were sitting just under the roof in fair territory of the 5th deck, i.e. not even Canseco could pot a dinger there, and the second worst part of the evening--after the loss, of course--was getting pooped on by a pigeon that got caught under the roof.  Cosmic sign received.

I suppose if the two words "pure drivel" qualify as adjective laden then I must plead guilty. Otherwise I thought my criticisms of the article were rather plainly stated.

I've not seen a criticism of Karhl's commentary.

It would have been like criticizing air. There was nothing there. Lots of mid-inning pitching changes? Be serious. Joe Maddon does that more than anybody, and everybody loves him. One-run games? I'd just finished one of my endless looks at one-run games. It's weird, it's inexplicable, but it's got nothing to do with the manager - as the piece more or less acknowledged. It was a blast of lukewarm air.

I always kind of admired how Gibbons' media skills/routine somehow had the effect of him receiving less criticism from the media and public than Cito Gaston received while he was winning championships. But in any event, almost all criticism and discussion of what a manager focuses entirely on the 20% of the job that we can actually see - while all the while not having anything like the same information at our disposal. So most of the time, we're just making our own contribution to the sum of hot air in the world.

So far I haven't heard any response to the polling of all mlb managers which said gibbons was the 3rd best manager in the AL.

That's because the managers can't actually know what they are talking about since most of them have been fired at least once. ;)

Casey Stengel once said that the most important part of a manager's job is keeping the five guys who hate your guts away from the five guys who haven't made up their minds. Translating that from the original Stengelese, one of the things he's saying is that the key to the job is keeping everyone focused on the same thing, on the team's goals rather than personal needs, personal agendas. Stengel - who generally was pretty cold and distant with his players - did this by getting everyone involved. Weaver was exactly the same (distant from his players, using everyone on his roster, and saving his charm for the press and public.)

I don't really know how he's done it, but Gibbons has players who are playing for their next contract buying into the team's needs, placing them above their own. So that's Job One, Accomplished. And I believe it's the most important job.

Is it a good time for some more Casey quotes? It's always a good time for Casey quotes!

All right everyone, line up alphabetically according to your height.

Never make predictions, especially about the future.

There comes a time in every man's life, and I've had plenty of them.

Being with a woman all night never hurt no professional baseball player. It's staying up all night looking for a woman that does him in.

He's twenty years old, and in ten years he has a chance to be thirty.

I had many years that I was not so successful as a ballplayer, as it is a game of skill.

Yes, Yogi Berra learned an awful lot from him. But much of this was an act, of course, to avoid answering questions he didn't feel like answering and just generally throw as much smoke in everyone's face as the moment required.

Magpie, as our guru of one-run games, have you looked at the analysis by fivethirtyeight.com (which I mentioned earlier)?  Here's the link:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-texas-rangers-are-making-unsustainable-history-in-one-run-games/

There is need for only one start for Liriano/Dickey during the Sep 2-7 period.  I wonder which one will get the start- I'd venture a guess that it will be Dickey with Liriano getting some work out of the pen. 

Alex Cobb's rehab pattern is strange.  He had TJ early in 2015, missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.  He has made 8 starts in the minor leagues and has been battered about mightily.  I understand that the Rays want to get him more work, but it's really not ideal for him to be thrust into the middle of a pennant race after such a long layoff and such a difficult start to his return to action. I guess we'll see how he looks.

Yes. I had come to a somewhat different conclusion, but I was looking at the games differently. (They were looking at player performance, I was looking at the types of games.) Their conclusion was that clutch hitting was the main driver in their success in those games. Whereas what struck me about Texas one-run games was how many of them they had won when Nothing Happened - neither team scored - in the final three innings. They had 10 when I was looking, and everyone else I looked at (a small group, granted, had 0 or 1.) So if you wanted to say Clutch and Flukey work by their late-inning relief pitchers was a key factor in those games, I wouldn't argue.

The Rangers have won three more games by a run in the two weeks or so since I did that piece. Their season record in the various types of one-run games is now:

Walkoffs: 6-5
Rallies: 9-1
Almost Rallies: 3-1
Nothing: 11-1

This worm will turn!

Thanks, Magpie.  Fascinating issue for further research.  Your database is a great start.

It's been covered but hey I want to type.....the issue with Karhl's analysis is, of course, that we don't actually have any metrics to judge a manager on. So what we get are just the assertion that certain numbers mean something about managing without actually having any idea if it's true.

The assertions regarding Gibbons in that article I believe are the following:

1. The team's record in one run games is largely effected by the manager.
2. it is a bad thing for managers to use relievers for less than an inning at a time.
3. good managers use platoons a lot, and gibby hasn't this year, so he's bad, even though he's used more platooning than most in previous years.
4. good managers use the intentional walk more as a strategy.
5. Instant replay success rate is a managerial skill.

I believe those are the main "statistical" assertions regarding Gibbons' low rank (correct me if I'm wrong, because that's just secondhand info for me).

Tackling them in reverse order then....

5. This one seems especially silly to me, tbh. It's not at all clear that replay success should be the manager's responsibility (in fact as we see the manager is most often told via phone relay whether to challenge or not), or even that "wasting" challenges is even a bad strategy in the first place given that even in those games where a later more important play needs a replay you can just ask the umps to look at it anyways and they always do. So if one of your stars is adamant he wants a replay then why not just give him one? And this doesn't even take into account that my homer view tells me the jays have been screwed by the replay reviewers more than a few times.

IMO, this criteria is so useless that it taints the whole project, imo. Doesnt even seem serious to me.

4. this is the first time I've ever heard a manager being insulted for not handing out free passes. In fact, sabermetrics which Karhl knows well would point to the fact that IBBs have historically been a widely abused damaging strategy so it's just plain strange that her "sabermetric" approach to manager analysis would use this as a criticism.

2 & 3. I group these two together because imo they directly contradict each other. I don't know how you can criticize a manager for not using platoons with his hitters, and then criticize him for using "platoons" too often with his pitchers. That doesn't make sense at all. Either we praise micromanaging or we don't, you can't have it both ways.

Even worse is the admission that gibby has used (wildly succssful) platoons in the past, which makes the criticism pretty dumb.

additionally, platoon here seems to be a term with a very simplistic defiition - i.e. platoon means only using the righty/lefty splits to make playing time decisions, and no other split stats playing time determination is actually a "platoon". Which of course is wrong again. Gibbons' Cola/Smoak platoon last year was pretty much ingenious, and had almost nothing to do with righty/lefty splits, and everyhing to do with pitch type. Smoak hit only against fastball pitchers, Cola took care of all the breaking ball pitchers (though he got his fair share of fastball guys too).

In fact, this may be one of the biggest misunderstandings of Gibbons as a manager - people assume he's ignoring stats when he doesn't use strict simplistic righty/lefty matchups, when from where I sit he's not just not ignoring them but he's using even more data than our simplistic armchair takes use - most of his interesting matchup decisions almost always have a good explanation rooted in pitch type matchups for both the hitters and relievers. This is the greatest irony for me - everyone criticizes him because they think he's a dummy ignoring stats, when in fact it's the people criticizing who are ignoring much more nuanced stats in favor of exceptionally crude numbers.

And as for the frequency of RP changes, what's fascinating here of course that a sabermetric analysis (and Maddon) would say that this is a good thing. A refreshing smart break from an old-skool "one reliever per inning" non-strategy that ignores matchups and leverage. That this is turned into a criticism in a "sabermetrics" piece is again just weird.


1. In the end, I agree with Hodgie - this whole piece can be summed up by saying "Gibbons' record in one run games is bad, so he is a bad manager". That's the entire piece.

This also explains why a smart sabermetrically inclined writer like Karhl would abuse the other "facts" so blatantly to try and shoehorn them into that predetermined argument, no matter that those reasons contradict each other and go against basic sabermetric analyis.

The thing is, this actually might be valid. Even with 538's and Magpie's analysis, there's still a decent possibility that a manager's record in one run games says something about his managing ability.

But then say that up front. Rank the managers on their record in one run games. That's fine. It's hard to prove but it makes some sense rationally.

But the rest of this "sabermetric" analysis is a whole lotta filler and fluff, and most of it doesn't even make sense.

Gibbons has a bad record in one run games. That is the only actual argument presented for him being a bad manager, and the only one that deserves much response.

So how do we judge a manager otherwise?

Here's a try:

1) Strategically, the manager has little influence on the players who are full time starters. Mostly the manager just has to play them and hope for the best. (And the funny thing is, of course, that their play is BY FAR the most important part of the team's success, so managing is by definition a tiny part of the process.)

So in terms of these guys, the manager's influence is limited to maybe a couple things:

a) "managing egos / keeping guys healthy and happy and productive" or something intangible like that. It's hard to judge this well of course, but in general if these full time guys all play to or above their usual standards that's probably a good sign for the manager. And in this case I think Gibbons likely scores well, though we can never know for sure. His players seem to like and respect him, he seems to keep things light, and he always has their backs. I've thought that maybe he gives the vets a little too much rope and might crack the whip a little more but what the hell do I know.

b) this is almost irrelevant but strategically speaking the one way the manager can effect these guys' effectiveness is via the batting order and starting rotation. Also having the balls to keep guys rested even while trying to win every game. Again, in all of these areas, I think Gibbons has to score well. I can't say enough about how awesome it is to have maybe the only manager in baseball who would hit Bautista-Donaldson-Encarnacion 1-2-3. This is a sabermetric dream and makes a mockery of anyone who thinks Gibbons is some old skool rube. Also he has been excellent in using the DH spot to rest guys and give days off when needed.

Overall all the full-time guys seem to generally play well for gibbons, which may or may not be to his credit but is all we really have to go on here.

2) Strategically, the manager can have a pretty big effect on the productivity of part time players and relief pitchers. While armchair analysists seem to treasure righty/lefty splits as the one true gospel, really there's a whole lot more that goes into this, and I feel comfortable that gibbons is well aware of those splits and many others.

Given that some managers are blessed with better part time players than others, the only way to really judge his ability here is whether he's able to get more out of these part time players than other teams are. It helps that these players change teams a lot so we have good info for comparisons, but at the same time these guys have such fluctuating borderline talent that it's hard to lay it all on the manager as well.

Still, I can't help but note that the Jays seem to get the best of most of these guys. When they move on to other teams, they don't seem to make us regret losing them much. While at the same time Gibbons has seemed to be able to find good use from players who were struggling badly elsewhere.

And imo this is true for both his bench and his bullpen. What he got last year from Cola, Smoak, Goins, Hendriks or this year from Biagini, Grilli, Benoit, Barney I think has to go to his credit. Not perfect of course as guys like Storen, Upton, Lowe, Chavez were less effective here than their previous destination....but then again none of those guys has bounced back since leaving so it probably wasn't his fault the struggled.


Holistically speaking I think his benches and bullpens have usually ended up as strengths, and that's even with many of the higher paid and established guys completely imploding on him year after year. Eventually he always seems to cobble together good production from what are largely a bunch of castoffs even after more prominent guys fail.

Now here's where I should unload some stats to show exactly whether his part time guys have been better or worse than "usual" but that's a bigger project. I haven't done a comprehensive look but I've kept track of many numbers over the past few years and I'm pretty sure I'm correct in this assertion.



3) Is he a good leader / manager of people?

The man is very easy to like, which is a good start. He's a fighter and competitor, which helps.

I thought it was kinda cool that he could go at his best player in the dugout as kind of an equal while both seemed to clearly maintain mutual respect and friendliness afterwords. Though maybe fighting with your best player over a bat toss isn't a great leader move, and maybe the player fighting back like that shows a lack of respect. I don't know.

I don't know if any of that means anything. It probably does but is impossible to measure.




Overall, imo there is probably only one good way to measure a manager's impact, though there's a whole lotta noise in it and the numbers would have to be smartly put together - but in basic terms we'd want to answer one simple question: "Do players perform better under this manager than under others?"

That would be the only worthwhile question to ask, imo. Not sure if we could answer it but we probably could make a good try of it.

Jeff Banister.  I don't care at all for his approach in the Bautista/Odor affair.  But he does seem to be bright.  He's managed 2 years in the majors, and his clubs have outperformed Pythagoras by 16 games (last year they were 27-22 in one run games).  Is it all luck or is there likely to be an element of skill?  I haven't run the numbers, but my instinct is that a larger sample is needed.

Even if there is an element of skill, it is extremely unlikely to amount to more than 1 or 2 games a year.  I noticed that the Rangers in 2016 have totally destroyed their divisional rivals Seattle and Houston and are 10-0 in one run games against those clubs. I haven't seen much of A.J. Hinch but I've seen quite a few head-scratchers.  It might be that the quality of the "managerial competition" has helped the Rangers to a degree. And then there are games like this one. A late inning meltdown by an opponent featuring a wild pitch, an error, a passed ball, a hit-by-pitch and a bases loaded walk.  Late inning meltdowns never happen to the Rangers during the regular season.

The Jays' record in one-run games this year is directly proportional to their bullpen depth.

In the first two months of the year, Gibbons had only one reliever he completely trusted, which was Osuna. During that time, they were 5-10 in one-run games.

After they acquired Grilli, and the Jays had two pitchers they could trust in close games, they were 5-8 in one-run games. When they acquired Benoit, the number of trusted pitchers went up to three; since then, they've been 5-4 in one-run games.

Atkins says that the most likely scenario is Estrada on Saturday and Happ on Sunday.  Maybe it's not so enticing to send a left-hander out in Yankee Stadium now that Sheriff Sanchez is on the scene- wait, I checked Sanchez' splits and bizarrely he has struggled mightily against LHP and (of course) destroyed RHPs.  Looking over Sanchez' minor league record, it seems likely that he has little in the way of platoon splits.  Happ does have a pretty good career record in Yankee Stadium.

Dave, the Jays have used Biagini in close games for much of the season and he has been excellent. 

This thread is now approaching 400 comments.  It might be an idea to have a separate thread for the whole one-run game discussion (whether it be for the Rangers or Jays or anyone else).  It's a complex topic. 

Happ pitched in front of Sanchez in the Baltimore series, so it would be weird for them to flip that to play matchups vs. 2 non contenders when they are trying to limit Sanchie's IP.

I was thinking that Dickey could go in Tampa on Sunday.  He's had a lot of success there.  You could then use Happ and Sanchez in the New York series and continue the limitation of his innings.

I'm guessing they are flipping the rotation around a bit because had they kept the normal six man rotation they had going then the Red Sox series would have had Liriano, Stroman, and Dickey starting in it.

If they go with Stroman, Estrada, and Happ against the Rays this weekend, then that means those three will go against the Red Sox next weekend, which is probably what they want.

I would think that they would want Sanchez to have a start against the Red Sox.  It's tricky.  There are many things to balance.

If you're going on a five man rotation, Stroman has to pitch on Wednesday in New York.  You could go: Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Happ, Sanchez, Stroman, (day off), Estrada, Happ, Sanchez.(which covers until the end of the Red Sox series).  You might skip Sanchez next scheduled start after that on the west coast with Liriano taking it. 

I don't know what their plan is, but it wouldn't surprise me if they go Stroman-Estrada-Happ this weekend, and then (in no particular order) Liriano-Dickey-Sanchez against the Yankees, which would bring them right back to Stroman-Estrada-Happ for Boston.

It really depends on how much rest they want to give Sanchez. His velocity was down in his last start and he was missing a lot of pitches up. He also had a season high in pitch count. I doubt they'd pitch him twice this week.

Dave, the Jays have used Biagini in close games for much of the season and he has been excellent.

Perhaps the Jays should have used Biagini more often in close games, but they haven't. Biagini has five holds so far this season, two of which were in August in games in which the Jays had a significant lead. By comparison, Grilli has 14 holds as a Blue Jay, and Benoit has six in a little over a month.

To be fair, you can't earn a hold unless you enter the game when your team has a lead, and other bullpen members often squandered the lead before Biagini had a chance to hold it.

However, looking at one set of raw stats, Biagini rates behind Grilli and Benoit:

Biagini: 49 appearances, 14 hitless, 14 scored on
Grilli (as Jay): 34 appearances, 20 hitless, 6 scored on
Benoit (as Jay): 15 appearances, 8 hitless, 0 scored on (!!)

I didn't realize that Benoit hasn't given up an earned run as a Blue Jay. Wow.

I like Biagini, and I hope he succeeds in going through the season without giving up a home run. I look forwarding to seeing him develop as a starter next year (he was a starter in the minors for the Giants), even if it means that he gets to spend quality time in Buffalo.

Thanks for that well written and thought out piece, ugly. I'm neither for or against Gibby. I'm a Jays fan and more or less support any manager for at least awhile. I don't care if Gibby sounded like Elmer Fudd and if they win I wouldn't care if he was Elmer Fudd. I imagine Casey Stengel, Joe Cronin, Joe McCarthy, Tony LaRussa had their detractors. Probably not a manager that ever lived pleased everyone.

I would go Stroman/Estrada/Dickey in Tampa - Happ/Liriano/Stroman in NY - Estrada/Sanchez/Happ against Boston - Sanchez gets an 9 day break.

"Holds" is a bit of a funny statistic to use for one-run game purposes.  Benoit earns a hold when he comes on in the 7th with a 3 run lead (he's done that twice).  Biagini doesn't get one when he pitches in a tie game late, which he has done a lot. 

I do know what you mean though.  Gibbons finds it easier to have a 7th, 8th and 9th inning guy for games with leads of 3 runs or less.  It's simple, and it does work reasonably well (if not necessarily optimally).  Gibbons feels confident about it, and that (I think) spills over to the players. 

Actually Dickey on Saturday, Estrada on Sunday, so that Estrada starts against Boston on his normal 4 days rest.

Of course there is another element to factor in for relievers - how many runs did they let score that weren't theirs?

Benoit - 4 inherited, 3 scored (ick) in 2 outings - once with bases loaded he let two score (Biagini's runners, he saved Cecil's sorta when he was thrown out at third), the other game J.A. Happ was the victim while Osuna came in to clean up the mess.

Biagini - 5 times let a run score that was from another pitcher. 14 times came in with runners on. In all but 1 of those cases the runner was already on 2nd or 3rd.

Grilli - only 3 times came in with runners on, allowed both to score vs Colorado in a blowout (14-9 for Jays in the end), saved 2 vs NYY when the Jays were leading by just 2 (won 7-0), saved 1 vs Boston when the Jays were leading by just 2 (won 5-2).

No question with runners on I much prefer Grilli and Biagini to Benoit.

Dave I gotta say I don't want Biagini starting next year.

This is a guy who was 25 in AA having a mediocre milb starting career. The chances he becomes a quality mlb SP are pretty slim, imo. But these are the kinds of guys who can often turn into good mlb RPs, and he seems to have done that, so I'd take that good luck and not mess with it.

And I think Biagini is a clear 2nd in the bullpen pecking order in Gibbons mind. He's the fireman.

I think Gibbons is comfortable with old men Grilli and Benny in strict 7th and 8th inning hold roles, but probably wouldn't want to put any extra strain on them outside that comfort zone.

Yep, that's exactly how it works. Biagini is Gibby's special weapon to deploy when he needs help, much like Cecil was last year, which allows Benoit and Grilli to stay cushy in their clearly defined roles. It's been working well.

Of course there is another element to factor in for relievers - how many runs did they let score that weren't theirs?

Good point. Baseball Reference tells me that Benoit allows a .515 OPS with no one on base, but .812 with men on. Does Benoit pitch from a windup with no one on? I'll have to check. (Grilli, by comparison, actually does better with runners on base.) This suggests that Benoit is best used to start an inning, rather than to put out a fire.

Dave I gotta say I don't want Biagini starting next year.

His numbers seem to have gotten better as he has gone up the minor league ladder. Which might mean something, or it might not.

One other thing I noticed about Biagini is that he is a ground ball pitcher. In the minors, he'd be giving up ground balls on minor league infields to minor league infielders. In The Show, he is giving up ground balls to the Jays' infield, which is likely to scoop them up. So much of pitching is defense.

I would guess that the Jays will try Biagini as a starter when they can actually send him down. There's nothing really to lose - if you're right, and he washes out as a starter, he can always go back to doing what he is doing now.

Starting pitchers are much harder to find than relievers. I think it is a given that Biagini begins next season as a starter. What happens after that will depend upon him.

Somewhat surprisingly, even as a strong Dickey advocate I think it does make sense for him to not start in the playoffs (provided we get there.)  And for that reason, I would like to see Dickey make a few relief appearances in September. I believe his knuckleball would be more effective following someone like Sanchez or Stroman out of the pen and we do seem to lack a solid performer out of the back end of the bullpen.  I know there are risks -- he's prone to the wild pitch and passed ball -- but overall I think the advantages outpace the disadvantages. Other Bauxites have have thoughts about this?

If Dickey is not starting, he will not be on the playoff roster. A knuckleballer out of the pen is not a reliable option in any way.

not a reliable option in any way.

Ummm.  Tim Wakefield. 

The way Gibbons is using the pen now is the way I was hoping he would use it prior to the season, though in that scenario I was assuming Cecil/Storen/Osuna would be the final 3. Now it is Benoit/Grilli/Osuna with Biagini as a bridge. I have no problem with that, even though Benoit often looks like a time bomb despite the fact that he hasn't given up a run yet.

I found Gibby's pen usage very poor in 2015 primarily because he tried to get too cute too often. If anyone is going to benefit from the Ned Yost "3 bosses to end the game" philosophy, it's Gibbons. The moment he starts mix and matching or improvising different things due to lack of trust is when I start to worry (see Arnold Leon in Tampa). It's no coincidence the pen has improved with defined roles, though more credit goes to the talent for actually performing.

As far as Gibbons in general, I'll just leave it as I'll agree to disagree with the pro-Gibbons crowd. I think he has good qualities and bad qualities, but overall is pretty average. Not terrible, but not worthy of the praise ugly gave him above either. Somewhere in between. My main gripe is people using wins/losses to defend him. John Farrell has a ring. That argument holds no water.

Another advantage to Dickey in the pen is that it seems like some players have a lot more difficullty with the KB than others.  It gives Gibby more room to pick good spots for him. And Dickey himself seems to often get in trouble the third time through the order and this would eliminate that problem.

Gibbons treated the pen the same last year as this year.

Osuna/Sanchez/Cecil were his 3 bosses. But he didn't know what Osuna was at the start of the year, sanchez was in the rotation, and Cecil blew up good.

This year the job has been easier because Osuna has been the man from day one, while unlike Hendriks last year, Biagini hasn't faltered as Gibbons has turned up the heat on him.

And Grilli has proved a better pickup than either Lowe or Hawkins was last year, too.

So, how are you going to juggle catchers if Dickey is in pen. I can see no realistic scenario, other than multiple injuries, where Dickey or Thole is on playoff roster, let alone pen. The team will carry at least 2 less pitchers in playoffs than in regular season.

juggle catchers if Dickey is in pen.

Martin can catch Dickey and did so often the last time Navarro was on the team.

The expanded roster has been officially announced:  Danny Barnes, Ryan Tepera, Matt Dermody, Dalton Pompey and Darrell Cecilianni.   (Plus of course Travis and Thole who were only technically off the team.)  Schultz and Loup are expected to be added later -- they have to wait 10 days per the option rules.

So it's pretty much as I predicted upthread, except Dermody instead of Bolsinger, and no 1B call-up.  Bolsinger seemed like a nice pick-up at the time, but his stats have been poor in Buffalo and he didn't even get a September call-up, so he'll have to do some work in spring training to impress the Jays.

Martin does not want to catch Dickey and should not due to injury risk as well as performance issues. This is bordering on ridiculous imo. Is there anyone else that thinks Dickey will be on playoff roster in pen? Which relievers or starters would be dropped to make room for this. Gibbons would never go for this.

I expect that Martin will do anything that helps the team and there's a difference between catching 100 or more pitches vs. a few dozen. 

Except that bringing in Dickey out of pen with increased chance of wild pitch or passed ball does not help the team and is not going to happen. And who who would be left off the roster to accommodate him?

My understanding is that Dickey does not want to pitch out of the pen, but Wakefield was OK with it.  Wakefield first starting pitching out of the pen when he was 32 years old and earned 15 saves that year.  It's a bit different to ask a 41 year old pitcher to change roles in the middle of a pennant race or in the playoffs.  There is, of course, a similar issue with Liriano.

"...And who who would be left off the roster to accommodate him?...."

It's not really a roster issue.  They only need 4 starters in the playoffs, so the bullpen could easily have 8 pitchers.  The Jays would simply have to decide that Dickey is more valuable on the roster than Liriano or the Buffalo relievers (Schultz, Tepera, Barnes etc).  Liriano might not be needed in the bullpen because of his control issues.  Do the Jays need two LHPs in the bullpen?  They've gone much of the season without two LHPs, so it could happen in the playoffs too.

Having said that, I personally don't think Dickey is well-suited to the bullpen, so I'd be surprised if he's on the playoff roster.  And the Jays would prefer that he not throw to Martin or Navarro, so that's another obstacle to putting him on the roster.  But I wouldn't completely rule it out at this stage.  There are scenarios in which it could happen. 

With all the off days, teams do not typically carry 12 pitchers in playoffs. Some might only carry 10 though I think 11 might be closest to the norm.

"....teams do not typically carry 12 pitchers in playoffs..."

In that event, the Jays would only have to decide that Dickey is more valuable on the roster than Ceciliani or Goins or a 3rd catcher.  The bench doesn't need 6 hitters.  If the pinch-runner is Pompey and the back-up infielder is Barney and the pinch-hitters are Smoak and Navarro, they are covered.

I don't think there's any chance Dickey makes the post season roster unless there is an injury to one of the other starters, and even then they may go with Liriano. The Jays needed a lefty reliever last post season and still did not carry Buehrle for either round. Dickey will probably get the same treatment barring some weird circumstances.

If everyone is healthy, then my guess is the playoff pitching staff would look like this:

SP: Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez
RP: Osuna, Grilli, Biagini, Benoit, Cecil, Feldman, Liriano

Let's say god forbid Sanchez has to be shut down and can't go, then I think they'd slide Liriano into his spot, and then a reliever (probably Tepera since Gibbons like him) into the pen.

Dickey would need at least two injuries to the current rotation to be an option for the post-season, IMO.

It is early to be discussing playoff roster decisions.  There's a month of baseball yet to be played; the club is currently healthy and long may it continue...

Speaking of roster shuffling:  Dermody wasn't on the 40-man roster, so Matt Dominguez has been DFA to make room for him.

It is early to be discussing playoff roster decisions.

Nervous that the baseball gods read internet forums and punish the enthused for their hubris?

No Girodo?

Great, now if the Jays miss the playoffs, it will be our fault for discussing the playoff roster on September 2nd.

Girodo really fell apart at the end of the year, really since his underwhelming stint in the bigs and his subsequent demotion. Dermody getting the call shows how far his stock has fallen.

Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Travis' demotion? I'm sure it has to do with exploiting some kind of technicality, but I'm not sure which one it is.

I'm not suggesting that it is bad luck to discuss playoff rosters.  Rather, I am saying that most playoff teams have some player or the other who has an injury in September that affects roster decisions for the bench/bullpen.  A middle infielder tweaks a hamstring a week before the playoffs and the club needs an extra infielder on the bench or whatever.  To suggest Dickey is (or is not) a bullpen candidate for the playoffs is one thing, but to suggest that he is (or is not) blocked because of a roster crunch is another.

It is early to be discussing playoff roster decisions.

I'm quite firmly in the camp that believes that what we write here has no bearing on what happens on the field.  But if you look back at the initial comment I made it was I would like to see Dickey come out of the bullpen in Sept. to see how that works.  If it does work for the reasons I've already outlined, I think he's a better fit than many of the other options for the playoffs (if we make it.)

My comment wasn't directed at you, electric carrot.  It's all about the idea that you can predict on September 2 how a roster crunch can affect decisions at the margins of a playoff roster. We know that Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin et. al. will be on the roster if healthy, and for the relatively few spots that are unspoken for, it will be important what the particular needs of the club are at that point. 

Dickey is a plausible candidate for the playoff roster, if he is willing to pitch from the pen or if a need arises in the rotation.  The real question now is whether he gets any relief outings in September to prepare him for a possible playoff role.  I would be surprised if he does. 

Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Travis' demotion? I'm sure it has to do with exploiting some kind of technicality, but I'm not sure which one it is.

To clear a spot on the roster to get Thole signed in advance of the Sep 1 playoff roster cutoff.

"....the reasoning behind Travis' demotion...."

I believe Thole had to be signed to a major-league contract before Sept. 1, to ensure that he was eligible for the playoffs.  (Which, by the way, is another indication that the Jays are at least keeping open the remote possibility of including Dickey on the playoff roster.)  So apparently that meant that Thole had to be added to the 25-man roster, which meant that somebody had to be removed from the 25-man roster to make room for him.  Thole had options, so he could be optioned to Bluefield and then added back on the Toronto roster as soon as rosters were expanded (a day later).  He didn't actually have to go to Bluefield because he had 72 hours before he officially had to report.  And he didn't officially burn an option, because options aren't burned until someone is demoted for 20 days.  So it was a complete technicality:  Travis didn't have to go anywhere, and he could be reactivated in time for tonight's game.

The full technical explanation is so confusing that I even wrote "Thole had options" when I meant to write "Travis had options."

Chuck's short version is much better.

Barry Davis tweeted a video of Dickey throwing a sim game at the Trop today on his regular 4 days of rest. He didn't comment on how many pitches Dickey threw, but I assume the team wouldn't have had him throw a sim today if there was even a possibility they wanted to look at him as a reliever this weekend.

Tonight's lineup is Bautista DH, Donaldson 3B, Encarnacion 1B, Saunders RF, Martin C, Tulowitzki SS, Upton LF, Pillar CF, Travis 2B. Looks like this is Gibby's A-team.

"Nervous that the baseball gods read internet forums and punish the enthused for their hubris?"

It used to happen in the Peloponnesian League.

Shi Davidi's twitter feed indicates that Liriano will be available for bullpen duty this weekend and that Dickey and Sanchez will make the first two starts of the Yankee series, after Stroman, Estrada and Happ this weekend. 

My comment wasn't directed at you, electric carrot.

Understood. My comment wasn't directed at you either Mike Green.

And in general, I'm not expecting support from either Bauxites or expect the MLB team to do this. I bring it up as an idea from left field that might actually work and I would love it if they did try Dickey in the pen. My guess is he would prefer to be in the pen then watching playoffs alone at home on his flatscreen (if the blue jays do make the playoffs.)  May a team managed by Joe Maddon would try it  ...