It's going to be a very tough series. The Indians offense top to bottom has been on a tear coming out of the All Star break. It seems a bit fortunate to miss Salazar/Carrasco and get Bauer-Tomlin out of the chute.

Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have pitched in 4 of the last 6 days coming into the series, and Dan Otero in 2 straight, so Francona may be a bit more cautious with his better relievers this weekend.

Liriano is doing an excellent job of proving his detractors wrong. Good to see.

Oh man, if Upton got ejected, would a pitcher have to play the field? Or are either of JD/Tulo healthy enough to come in and push either Barney or Goins to the outfield?

Oh man, if Upton got ejected, would a pitcher have to play the field? Or are either of JD/Tulo healthy enough to come in and push either Barney or Goins to the outfield?

I assume it would be Thole to C, Martin to 3B and Barney to LF, Carrera to CF if Upton got tossed and Tulo/JD can't go.

This might be one too many batters for Liriano.

I wondered about Martin playing the infield. At his age, I'm not sure it's a markedly better defense than moving a pitcher between RF and LF, depending on the batter's handedness. And Thole vs. a pitcher batting is a toss-up as well.

I think the Jays can't wait for expanded rosters right now. I'm sure Gibbons is ready to run at full speed onto the field and jump between an ump and a player if it looks like someone will be thrown out. Wonder if he asked for a bit of consideration pre-game from the umps given the super-short bench.

This might be one too many batters for Liriano

au contraire - it's his Signature Blue Jay Moment!

Indeed an encouraging start by Liriano. It sets the rotation up pretty well for next year if he continues this way. There are a ton of Jays fans at the game tonight. Once when Liriano just missed a called third strike, there was a loud enough " ooooohh!" that you'd think they were playing at home.

Yup - great job by the lefthander to wriggle out of that jam. Pretty good start by "the worst pitcher in baseball."

The Jays have had remarkable success this year with pitching reclamation projects - Grilli, Benoit, and maybe Liriano too. Add Happ, Estrada, and Biagini to the mix, and it's clear that the front office has played an important role in building this year's pitching staff. And they've done so at very low cost.

One insurance run would come in handy here.

Ahem.

One run loss.

So from Magpie's earlier post, "Held a Lead" one run wins for the Jays this year remains at zero.

Well that was a mess of a defensive game. Two errors from Travis and then that ninth inning with Saunders and Upton.

Melvin deserves the bench for not backing up on that play.

Well, that was demoralizing.

Liriano was great. The offense was predictably bad without four of their starters but still had a chance to win. And of all pitchers Osuna is the one that blows it.

Baseball is a cruel game some times.

What the hell was Upton doing? And two 2-strike cookies from Osuna -especially to Ramirez- uncharacteristic to say the least. Too bad, that would have been like stealing one.

The Jays should stick to trading for guys who are struggling on their teams (Grilli, Benoit, Liriano,) and not guys who are playing well (Storen, Upton.)

Wow, I can see why everybody labels Saunders a poor outfielder -- a catchable ball turned into an inside-the-parker with Upton's help.

There are one-run losses, and then there are disgraceful performances like that. Aside from Upton, Saunders, and Travis each doing their level best to throw the game away, I guess Bauer was due - he had an ERA of 9.28 against the Jays before today.

Also, Cleveland's bullpen got a free pass in this one, so they'll be rested for games two and three.

Saunders missed TWO catchable balls in that game. Earlier on he backed up in order to allow a pop fly to bounce in front of him. I guess that's technically not an error since he managed to get himself well away from where the ball ended up landing.

The lack of bench depth is a real issue. Going forward, they can't afford to have pylons like Saunders playing the outfield late in games. A defensive replacement is going to be necessary. They didn't have one tonight because of the short bench (+ injuries) and it hurt them.

The Jays should have won this one. Travis made a bad play that lead to a run, and I don't even want to talk about that ITP HR.

Tough loss. On the upside. Joaquin Benoit has an ERA of 0.00 as a Blue Jay. Jason Grilli had an ERA of 1.69 as a Blue Jay coming into tonight and lowered it. Ben Revere has an OPS+ of 47 as a Nat, and Storen an ERA of 4.66 in Seattle. I don't even know the guy the Blue Jays sent to Atlanta for Grilli. As greenfrog says, some smart. And a nice bit of starting pitching by Liriano.

Very hard to win a game in the AL when your team scores 2 runs, especially when your defence gives one of those back. For now, with Smoak's struggles of late at the plate, the best lineup might have Travis at DH, Barney at second and Edwin at first. Barney's probably not much of an upgrade offensively on Smoak, but I think he's a worthwhile defensive upgrade on Travis.

Repulsive as that loss was, it's worth remembering that every team has games like that one. Best to turn the page and focus on winning tomorrow. The Jays have played much better than that for most of this year.

Well, September and expanded rosters are close. Once that hits then it'll be Pompey in LF late (I hope).

Osuna throws the changeup on 0-2 counts a lot. It's his worst pitch.

" I don't even know the guy the Blue Jays sent to Atlanta for Grilli."

Sean Ratcliffe - I think he pitched 2 games in the minors for them and they released him.

I showed up in time to watch the 9th inning and saw that little leaguers were allowed to play in place of the Jays. After Naquin hit his "home run", I expected one of the moms to come out with sliced oranges.

I'm curious about the Carrera in left / Saunders in right choice by Gibbons, personally. I think there's a good chance this game has a different outcome with slightly-less mind-boggling defensive positioning.

Saunders is playing out of position. He's not even a good left fielder and playing him in right is a known risk. Not all that extraordinary an outcome that he misjudged a ball at the wall.

More worrisome to me is how bad the Blue Jays have been offensively since the break.

92-93 suggested that it would have been better if Tepera had been sent down rather than Ceciliani. In light of the day off on Monday, he was pretty clearly right. And it might have made a difference tonight.

I showed up in time to watch the 9th inning and saw that little leaguers were allowed to play in place of the Jays.

I listened to the first 8 innings of the game on the Indians radio broadcast, and that was how their PBP man described one Ezequiel Carrera after apparently colliding with Upton in the 8th.  I think his follow-up observation was to the effect that he just runs until one of the grown-ups tells him to stop. 

Jeff Hoffman is scheduled to start for the Rockies tomorrow. That means there will be 9 starting pitchers over the next 5 days who were drafted and signed by the Jays between 2010 and 2014. The other 8 - Sanchez, Stroman, Syndergaard, DeSclafani, Graveman, Musgrove, Norris and Boyd.

92-93 suggested that it would have been better if Tepera had been sent down rather than Ceciliani. In light of the day off on Monday, he was pretty clearly right. And it might have made a difference tonight.

Gibbons is already out of his comfort zone without an 8 man pen due to the 6 man rotation. I thought the same as 92-93, but the issue seems to be how to deal with a very brief shortage of infielders with both Donaldson and Tulowitzki not playing, but still on the 25 man. If he kept Ceciliani over Tepera, he wouldn't be able to immediately return Tepera in a day or two (and I too hope this 3 outfielder thing is a short-term situation because it's nuts) and he'd be down to a 6 man pen. John Gibbon's isn't going to go with a 6 man bullpen. That is not going to happen.

I miss the 60's and the 9 or 10 man pitching staff. Then again, were the rosters not set at 23 back then? Sure seems like teams had a real bench back in those days.

"....John Gibbon's isn't going to go with a 6 man bullpen..."

You think Gibbons is completely in charge of personnel and roster moves?   You blame him, rather than Atkins or Shapiro, if you don't like the composition of the roster?

I'm sure Gibbons has some input on roster decisions, but to imagine that the GM cannot overrule Gibbons is a little silly.  If the Front Office is worried that the Jays don't have a deep enough bench, and if the solution is to demote Tepera, they should take care of it.  If the Jays lose a game because the bench lacks a defensive replacement for Saunders in the 9th inning, that's not entirely the manager's fault.

Gibbons has never gone with a six man bullpen, even under AA. In fact the team has had more times with eight than six. I guess the FO could override him, but I think both AA and Shapiro are fine letting him have the configuration he wants.

Losing a game in the 9th inning is always frustrating, but the real story -- from a longer-term perspective -- was the strong performance from Liriano.  Over 6 innings, he shut down a strong-hitting lineup.  In his 3 games with the Jays, he now has a 3.57 ERA and a 4.21 xFIP.   And he has greatly reduced his walks allowed, the main problem that was plaguing him earlier in the season.  If he keeps this up, it's a huge addition to the Jays rotation, for this season, for the playoffs, and for next season. 

"....I guess the FO could override him..."

The notion that Gibbons is the main decision-maker on the Jays roster composition, with the Front Office meekly kowtowing to him, is an odd one.  These are collective decisions, but Gibbons is clearly the lower man in the hierarchy of decision-makers.

Gibbons for sure isn't the policy maker, but he is the man who sets the lineup and uses the bullpen. This giving him a big bench is probably not going to mesh with his managing style. At the end of the day there is no point giving him personal he doesn't use. Probably why Pompey is still down since he wouldn't be an every day player in the majors right now with Gibbons.

Last night sucked, but I didn't feel too bad. We had our worst pitcher starting and 3 of 4 of our "star" players (4 of 5 if you count Pillar) not playing. I'm surprised it was even close to be honest. Let's hope Donaldson and Tulo aren't off the field long.

I only caught Liriano's last inning, but again he didn't look much good to me. Maybe if I'd have seen the other 5 innings I'd have a different frame of mind.

And how about Martin? We wouldn't be looking nearly as pretty in the standings if not for his recent hitting. After last night's performance he's up to a 101 RC+, so barely above average. His WAR is up to 1.6. Hopefully he can keep padding his stats in this last month or so. Reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

I was curious how Aaron Sanchez' age 23 BBRef comps had done, and ran across an interesting name- Joey Jay.  Jay had been a bonus baby and had been used in a similar role to Sanchez' in Milwaukee through age 24 throwing 130 innings a year.  He was in a well-known trade to Cincinnati (Freese/Pizarro/Roy McMillan), and immediately was placed in the rotation and delivered fine seasons of 247 and 273 innings.  From age 27 though, he was ineffective perhaps due to shoulder issues. 

The notion that Gibbons is the main decision-maker on the Jays roster composition, with the Front Office meekly kowtowing to him, is an odd one. These are collective decisions, but Gibbons is clearly the lower man in the hierarchy of decision-makers

A decision about whether they would use 3 outfielders with 7 pitchers or 6 pitchers with a fourth outfielder is entirely a decision where deference is paid to the manager's wishes. That's how a baseball club works. It's not simply based on the formalities of power relationships. It's like the lineup. It's the manager who uses the players during a series. The FO does not tell the manager "Like it or not, you'll have 6 pitchers at your disposal for this series and an extra outfielder". Not how it works at all.

Pillar was probably the biggest missing piece last night - no way that is an inside the park home run with Pillar in CF.

As to losing the big guys next year... record with and without them starting. 69-53 overall
Jays with Bautista: 43-37 vs 26-16 without
Jays with EE: 68-52 vs 1-1 without
Jays with Saunders: 59-44 vs 10-9 without

Appears Bautista is the least important of the 3 right now. No shock given how poorly he has played this year.

Just for fun - RA Dickey: 9-16 when he starts, 60-37 without.

I should add that Dickey has had 0 run support 3 times, 1 run 3 times, and 2 runs 3 times. So 9 times he wasn't given enough to be expected to have a real shot at winning (won once). Only 5 times 6+ runs of support where you should always win (and the Jays did). 8 times he allowed 2 or fewer runs and has a loss and a no-decision (team lost) in those.

I'm not a big fan of Dickey, but he has received the poorest run support of any of the starters, almost half as much as J.A.Happ.

Part of the reason why Dickey has had bad run support is because Josh Thole is always in the lineup when he is pitching, instead of Martin. Some of it is random bad luck, of course.

Last night's game was a bit like spotting an albino raccoon. We're so used to Osuna being perfect that we've forgotten that every closer blows a save every now and again. Let's hope that the Jays get more than two runs tonight.

As for roster composition: I've always assumed that Gibbons and the front office work together and try to reach a mutually agreeable solution. I think that's why the Jays have a six-man rotation, actually: the front office wants Sanchez in the bullpen, Gibbons wants Sanchez in the rotation, and this is the compromise that they've gone with.

Is it just me or does Kevin Barker make you pine for Zaunie? I can't watch this pregame show. Brasil-Germany O.T. is better anyway than either I'm thinking.

Well, Barker does has a career WAR of -0.3, so I for one always look forward to his "here's what I'd do in that situation" comments...

I don't know that he makes me pine for Zaun; rather, they both make me wish Rogers would use some of that revenue to hire professional broadcasters.

And how about Martin?

There are so many pitchers with this year's team that are either having career years or have turned their game around since joining the Jays. Impossible to create a game calling stat, but I'm sure Martin is one of the key reasons, especially when you hear an experienced guy like Liriano saying he makes a big difference.

Appears Bautista is the least important of the 3 right now. No shock given how poorly he has played this year.

Here's my worthless speculation.

I think Bautista is the most likely to sign with Toronto. What makes me think this is that he has business interests in Toronto, and his press conference at the beginning of the year was so bad, such a complete disaster, that I think the organization will decide to overlook it and view it as the actions of 35 year old who got a bit full of himself. His value has fallen considerably and with a qualifying offer, his market is going to be less than what he thought when he decided to act out in February. The team might well decide he's a bargain, coming off a poor year rather than a great one. On the other hand, he's no longer an outfielder, and the team is going to need at least one good offensive outfielder.

Edwin on the other hand, is the opposite. He's having a strong year, maybe the strongest he'll ever have again, and he'll have a market I wouldn't match when there's a draft pick to gain rather than an overpay. Saunders may play himself out of a QO. Hard to say what's going to happen there.

"If he kept Ceciliani over Tepera, he wouldn't be able to immediately return Tepera in a day or two (and I too hope this 3 outfielder thing is a short-term situation because it's nuts) and he'd be down to a 6 man pen. John Gibbon's isn't going to go with a 6 man bullpen. That is not going to happen."

Few points to add as why the roster management for this weekend's series was incredibly poor:

1. Not being able to have Tepera for 10 days really doesn't matter. You don't play an MLB game shorthanded because of the difference between Tepera and a different RP for 9 days.

2. When you have 6 starters you effectively have an extra reliever right there, because tomorrow's starter can always be used easier knowing there's another SP who can go on 4 days rest anyway the next game.

3. Before the series, Gibby indicated to the media that Estrada wanted to pitch an inning out of the bullpen to help him start with all this extra rest (2 off days, 6 man rotation).

I would have liked to see Carrera move the runner in the first. I know that bunting now is viewed by some as original sin, but when you have Ezequiel Carrera batting second on a team that's having a lot of trouble scoring runs, i'd play for the run in the first inning. I'm tired of losing one run games.

Then again, were the rosters not set at 23 back then?

The active roster has been set at 25 for as long as I can remember, but there were a couple of seasons in the mid 1980s when every team in the majors all of a sudden decided they'd just carry 24 guys on the active roster. Just to mess with the union.

As strange as some of the Jays' active roster configurations may seem, I promise nothing can compare to those two weeks in mid 1990 when the team was carrying three outfielders - one of whom was too injured to actually play in the games - and four catchers. This really happened, and I'll bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in your pockets that the GM made that particular decision.

Saunders in RF again, huh.

Why doesn't Gibbons just stop screwing around and put Josh Thole in CF already?

What terrific base running by Goins. Stole a run. Offensive 5-11 through 2 innings, a nice start.

Saunders in RF again, huh.

Pretty good reflection of what Gibbons thinks, justifiably, about Carrera's defence.

Hey, remember when Martin and Tulowitzki were washed up?

It's hard to when Martin is hitting .278/.387/.496 since May 11th, which doesn't include the oppo shot he just launched.

And with Tulo, you really only need to remove the first 8g to see a nice line of .270/.334/.495 since April 12th.

Welcome aboard Melvin!

Hey, remember when Martin and Tulowitzki were washed up?

Yup, there was a lot of negativity on this site April and May as I recall. Martin, Tulo  and a few others whose talent levels were diving off cliffs.

I remember when David Ortiz was washed up. What was it, six years ago? Seven?

Every player has times during the season where they don't produce. Donaldson is sort of in the middle of one right now. It was just glaring when the two started off so cold and yeah it led to strong reactions, some probably a bit over paranoid. That being said their total numbers at seasons end are going to be lower than previous years. Which makes sense, players into their 30s tend to decline. I wouldn't expect next year to be as good as this year either.

Well Bonds got better too. Exceptions don't really do much to discount that players in their thirties tend to decline fairly fast.

I always kind of assumed Ortiz just had a bad shipment in 2009.

You may also be recalling last year, when at the end of June there was a lot of talk in the Boston media about how Papi was done. He was hitting .228/.314/.413 on June 29th, and then went .317/.404/.683 the rest of the way.

I don't care what kind of justification Gibbons has for his decision-making. He's just wrong. He's a terrible manager. He should be back in Double-A where he belongs.

I checked and yup, it was 2009 when Ortiz was still below the Mendoza Line in June. He was 33 that year, and huge LH sluggers have been known to go off a cliff or just break down physically around that age (Mo Vaughn, Ryan Howard, and I suppose we can add Prince Fielder to the list.)

Guess he was OK, though.

...aaaaand we're watching Little League again.

Yup, there was a lot of negativity on this site April and May as I recall. Martin, Tulo and a few others ...

Of course there was negativity. They were playing like crap! If we're going to celebrate them when they're flying, there's no reason we can't criticize them when their flailing.

And predicting who's washed up and who isn't...good luck. All we can really comment is current results. Predicting any player's future is a crap shoot.

And predicting who's washed up and who isn't...good luck.

I predicted that Martin would get better after his April.  How come?  Because it was obvious. I think it's possible that I could have been wrong -- but hardly a crap shoot. Just look at his trajectory. 

Most players don't fall off a cliff, most gradually fall apart. Thus why someone will spend $15+ million a year on Bautista this winter. Early on (April) the Jays were buried in guys slumping who had been 5+ WAR types in Martin (391 OPS), Tulo (618 OPS), Encarnacion (698 OPS) and it was safe to say they should come back much better and they all did. The 'meh' guys who slumped you could assume were near the end but might have a dead cat bounce like Smoak (591, up to 708 now), Thole (538 - worse since), and Goins (469, a bit better since) with only Smoak showing any real offense since then and not much.

Now, betting on guys in their 30's long term is a mistake but for one season the risk is minimal unless they already are well on their way down, which I fear Bautista might be.

So now that Sanchez has a bad start under his belt (everyone who got on base vs him scored, total of 5 runs in 4 innings) do the Jays pull him from the rotation feeling safe with Liriano having a good start or do they go another round and see what happens next time? I hope they go one more round first but wouldn't be surprised if that is it and Sanchez is the 7th inning guy now.

Hey, one run win. That gets the record to 14-21, a .400 percentage...which should be called the Blue Jay Line.

Osuna finally stayed away from the two strike changeups.

I believe this is the first time this year the Jays pitchers nursed a one run lead through the final 3 innings.

I checked and yup, it was 2009 when Ortiz was still below the Mendoza Line in June. He was 33 that year, and huge LH sluggers have been known to go off a cliff or just break down physically around that age (Mo Vaughn, Ryan Howard, and I suppose we can add Prince Fielder to the list.)

i'm not sure that David Ortiz is the flag bearer you want for the 'he showed 'em' team. It was actually long before 2009 David Ortiz was first given up on. The Twins non-tendered him and he left for Boston, where he joined career doper Manny Ramirez and his numbers, and career, took off.

When Ortiz joined the Sox in 2003 and his numbers spiked into superstar territory, he also failed the 2003 PED test. Players were told about it at the time, but Ortiz wrote a book in which he failed to mention anything about it. This allcame out in 2009, when the NYT got hold of the list of PED cheats who'd failed the 2003 test and published his name and Ramirez'. Ortiz held the standard denial/non-denial press conference where he said he never 'knowingly' used steroids but that he'd been taking things carelessly and he just couldn't remember what it was he was taking.

I think Ortiz' 2016 season with his .628 slg percentage as a 40 year old is about as believable as Bonds' 70-however-many PED assisted home runs in his 40's. I think baseball's glad he's retiring, and that 2016 will be remembered as the year that he and another longtime PED guy with the Yankees were flushed out of the system.

The point that you were making that I was premature in reporting the deaths of Martin and Tulowitzki is certainly a good one, but I don't think Ortiz is proof of much more than the reason they call them performance enhancing drugs, is because they enhance performance.

Most players don't fall off a cliff, most gradually fall apart.

Ortiz of course, has done neither. Ortiz has the highest percentage of his home runs hit after their age 26 year, of any player with 500 home runs in baseball history. The next three guys on the list - Sosa, Bonds and Palmeiro.

He has indeed faltered, like in 2009 when it became public that federal agents had obtained the list of those who failed the 2003 test, which he knew included him as he'd been told back in 2003 that he'd failed. He took time off in May '09 from the team to 'clear his head' (surely not to cycle and clear his sample) then came back much better. I'd bet he tried to go clean the first half of '09 and knew by May his career would be over if he didn't go back.

I think Ortiz' 2016 season with his .628 sly percentage

He's now hitting .322/.414/.638, once you factor in his performance so far tonight (3/3 with a HR).

Joe Biagini, Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit have now pitched 86 innings for the Jays with a 1.67 ERA.

Just as we all predicted in April.

Ortiz is interesting. He was going fairly normally from 2004-2009 (ages 28-33) seeing his OPS go from 983 to the low 1000's for 29-31 then dropping to 877 at 32 and 794 at 33 then mysteriously a second peak started...
Age OPS
34 899
35 953
36 1026
37 959
38 873
39 913 a final climb
40 1038

It is weird. Not unprecedented but weird.

Another odd one for comparison
age 20-34 933 157 OPS+
age 35-39 977 168 OPS+
age 40+ 732 107 OPS+
A few might guess who this is and odds are steroids weren't involved given the time frame - Hank Aaron who retired in 1976 with his peak OPS/OPS+ at age 37 in 1971.

  Sorry, Dean, but considering what we know about the testing that Bautista has been subjected to , I find your suggestions about Ortiz going back hard to swallow, considering he was a known user. Editing on the phone is unreliable so I'll keep this short.
He was released by the twins after his best mlb season- that reflects more on that organizations bonehead than Ortiz not being a solid player, even if he wasn't "David Ortiz" yet. Fenway helps too.

If/when Sanchez goes to the pen it could be killer.
6th: Benoit
7th: Sanchez
8th: Grilli
9th: Osuna

With Biagini the alternate for whoever is tired. This is without factoring in Cecil or having Dickey for long relief in the playoffs. Playoff rotation would be Happ/Estrada/Stroman/Liriano. In the playoffs a reliever can be more valuable than a starter thanks to leverage and ability to go in most of the 7 games in a series if needed thanks to off days.

I think Biagini has earned the chance to keep pitching high-leverage innings despite 10 scoreless innings by Benoit.

But it is funny how strong the pen has been with pretty much everyone except Osuna not being in the teams plans to start the season. It is an excellent case for why you don't spend big money or assets on relief pitchers. The Jays have the best ERA in the American League and it's basically all thanks to guys they've either drafted or picked up off the scrap heap.

Is there any way to put the 'sliced oranges' post on the banner?

It is an excellent case for why you don't spend big money or assets on relief pitchers

Andrew Miller worked out brilliantly for the Yankees: the team gained a season and a half of stellar relief pitching from Miller and then flipped him for quality prospects. So sometimes the investment is worth it. But it's true that good bullpens can often be built on the cheap. The Jays have had some highly-paid dud free agent relievers (Caudill, Coco Cordero, BJ Ryan) and some dominant relievers who cost next to nothing (Henke, Ward, Osuna).

There is a good reason for Hank Aaron's performance in his 30's. He moved from a very poor home run hitting park, County Stadium in Milwaukee to a very good home run park, Fulton County Stadium in Atlanta. Bill James did a very good study on Aaron's career, and the statistical illusion of a late career resurgence. If you look at Aaron's home run totals on the road, season by season, you get a normal age progression. James says that if Aaron had played his peak years, in his late 20's, in a neutral park, he would have had 50 HR's in a season, probably more than once, and if he had played those years in Atlanta, he would have had more than 60 HR's in a season. In his years in Milwaukee, he hit 185 HR's at home, and 213 on the road. In Atlanta, he hit 200 at home and 157 on the road.

"Gibbons has never gone with a six man bullpen, even under AA. In fact the team has had more times with eight than six."

That is very cool that this is tracked somewhere. Mind sharing the source, I'd be very interested in seeing how many times Joe Maddon has carried an eight man pen and 3 catchers on his active roster this season.

Kevin Pillar was 4/5 in his first rehab assignment. I'll be glad to see him back in centre with Upton providing plus defence in one of the corner positions.

"Impossible to create a game calling stat, but I'm sure Martin is one of the key reasons, especially when you hear an experienced guy like Liriano saying he makes a big difference."

Actually, Harry Pavladis at BP has come up with a game calling stat. Here's the ESPN story:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12880518/mlb-best-game-caller-dodgers-catcher-aj-ellis

Here is a podcast with Pavladis that expands on it further:

http://podbay.fm/show/545919715/e/1432893660?autostart=1

A couple of points of interest from the podcast

Framing is more impactful than game calling.
Some MLB teams actually call all pitches from the bench.

Hoagie I'm sure there is some tool out there that could show stats between 6 and 8 man bullpen but im not aware of it. My research is just memory of his tenure here the last few years and a rudimentary 6/8 man bullpen search on Google, which shows several times the Jays have used 8 (and the bitching I remember the Jays getting for it) and six man bullpen never coming up as an option the Jays have done. So yes the Jays have gone with 8 more than 6, but since they have never gone with six so the point is moot. Then again I don't think anyone else goes with six either.

The Jays optioned Sanchez to skip a start for him. They have replaced him with Loup, bringing it back to an eight man bullpen.

As predicted, the 6-man rotation didn't last very long.  The Jays, smartly, are remaining very flexible about the composition of their rotation and bullpen.  Nobody should get locked into dogmatic rules about rotation size, bullpen size, innings, etc.   Play it day-by-day and keep lots of options available.  Make decisions based on the performance and health of the existing staff and the available alternatives, not on the basis of dogmatic or rigid rules.

There's also a pretty fair chance that the 8-man bullpen doesn't last long.  Either Loup or Tepera could be optioned when Pillar is ready.  Or when Bautista is ready.  The Jays might like Goins a bit better than some of us do.

I do enjoy the odd hoagie but I don't typically answer to that name Kasi. As for the assertion that Gibbond has never used a 6 man bullpen I am pretty sure that is incorrect. I suppose I will have to do some digging.

Sorry Hodgie the iPad auttocorrect does some dumb things and I don't always catch it. This board doesn't allow edits either. I'd be curious if you could find an example of the Jays using a six man pen under Gibbons. I don't recall them ever using it.

"....the Jays using a six man pen under Gibbons...."

The idea that Gibbons has NEVER allowed a six-man bullpen is a bizarre one.  It has happened often, though never for a protracted period of time (which is reasonable enough).  Just one example from this season:  on May 25, when the Jays activated Devon Travis, they optioned Pat Venditte to the minors.  That gave them a six-man bullpen.

Now please don't insist that you want every instance to be fully documented before you'll believe us.

Tulo was injured at the time and they were figuring out if they needed to put him on the DL or not. A couple days later they did and replaced him with a pitcher. All i was saying was I don't recall much of a time whe. They've had 25 healthy players on their roster that they've gone with a six man bullpen as a strategy.

I have no idea why you made the last comment. Was their any reason to be personally insulting? Did I make things personal with you on this matter? Oh well time to go on a hiatus here again. Every time I feel like I can come back here and talk Jays baseball I get attacked. Between you and jerjapan you've made your best to make this forum unfriendly for me. I'll see you guys again in a few months when I've forgotten how the people here act.

This move also means that Dickey's next two starts will be against the Angels and Twins, while Sanchez's return will be at Baltimore (Estrada/Happ/Sanchez scheduled for that series). Works out pretty nicely.

It wasn't meant to be personally insulting, and I'm sorry if it came off like that.  Stick around.  All viewpoints welcome, although everyone has to be prepared to be defend their viewpoints.  (I've been put on the defensive often enough myself!)

Then address the point and not the person. You could have just said when Travis got injured. No idea why you'd think I wouldn't believe you. Also making a post and getting a response that your point is invalid because I mistakenly thought you made a post a year ago from a 16 year old are not things I want to read on this board. Once things become personal I immediately shut it off for a while. Keep this discussion on the Jays and I'm happy, even if we disagree.

Make it personal and I won't post, it's not worth it. I'm not on the Internet to get into personal arguments, I gave that up a long time ago for my health. So please for everyone here just take a second before you post to make sure we keep it about the Jays, not about the people here. In the end we are all Jays fans and want a place to discuss our team.

Travis got injured = Travis got activated, wish there was a limited edit.

A few might guess who this is and odds are steroids weren't involved given the time frame - Hank Aaron who retired in 1976 with his peak OPS/OPS+ at age 37 in 1971.

The careers of Hank Aaron and Ortiz are a good study in contrast.

Ortiz' career is the archetype of a PED-fuelled one. He started in the majors at age 21 and through his aged 26 season in 2002, before he moved to Boston and tested positive for PED's in 2003 along with Ramirez, he'd hit a grand total of 58 home runs. By that point he'd led the league in nothing and wasn't close to leading any league in anything. As a 24 year old, he managed 10 home runs. and as a 25 year old, 18. His best year was his aged 26 season, a common phenomenon before PED's, in which he hit 20. Minnesota concluded he'd not amount to much more than that and non-tendered him.

Hank Aaron started in the majors at age 20. Hank Aaron was a great hitter because he was always a great hitter. By his age 22 season, he led the league in BA, total bases hits and doubles. In his aged 23 season, he stepped it up and led the league in home runs and RBI's, hit .322 and won the MVP. At aged 25, he led the league in BA (.355), OPS, OPS+, total bases, smacked 39 home runs and finished third (!) in MVP voting (Banks and Matthews).

Through age 26, Hank Aaron had hit 219 of his 755 homeruns and led the league in everything but triples and stolen bases, and even there he'd steal more than 20 6 times in his career. By the time he was 26, he'd hit 40 or more home runs twice and 39 another. When he was 28 he'd hit his career high in home runs, 45. The reason Hank Aaron was a great hitter still at 37 was he was always a great hitter from aged 21 on. He was a great hitter at 35, slashing .300/.396/.607 for a 1.003 OPS. He was a great hitter at 33, when he led the league in home runs. Hank Aaron was the most consistent great hitter there has ever been.

David Ortiz on the other hand, hit only 58 of his current 532 home runs through his aged 26 season. His career took off in 2003, the year he tested positive for PED's, and believed his positive test would be forever buried. Ortiz has hit almost 90% of his home runs in the period beginning the year he tested positive. Of all the players who have hit 500 home runs, he has the highest percentage from his aged 27 season on, ever. As I noted above, the next three in that percentage are Sosa, Bonds, and Palmeiro, PED guys every one. David Ortiz is the PED guy's PED guy. Even Aaron, as great and as he was at 37, and as great and consistent as he was in his career, by age 40 was in decline, when he had a year about as good as Ortiz' aged 26 year, a year that barring PED"s may have been Ortiz' best ever. Ortiz' current year, when he is at age 40 leading the league in slugging, in OPS and slugging higher than he ever has, is as ridiculous to baseball as the fact that the only player to ever hit more than 60 home runs three times, is the great Sammy Sosa.

lexomatic has argued that it is unlikely that Ortiz, having tested positive in 2003 would return to drugs. If only that were true. The answer is, the evidence of recidivism is much stronger than the evidence that anybody quit. The guys who tested positive in 2003 included Bonds, who kept doping, Clemens who kept doping, Rodriguez who kept doping, and Ramirez who kept doping. The sad fact is that the manufacturers are ahead of the testers. They manufacture to the test. The Al Jazeera doc on youtube is a good expose of that industry.

The idea that Gibbons has NEVER allowed a six-man bullpen is a bizarre one. It has happened often, though never for a protracted period of time (which is reasonable enough). Just one example from this season: on May 25, when the Jays activated Devon Travis, they optioned Pat Venditte to the minors. That gave them a six-man bullpen.

The Blue Jays opened the year with an 8 man pen, and until the 6 man rotation have largely kept that. The Venditte/Travis exchange was for one day if my review of the transactions is correct. Venditte was optioned on the 26th of May, after the game if I recall correctly, and Loup activated on the 28th. I think there was one day, May 27, when the Blue Jays had a 6 man pen. That pattern doesn't show to me that a 6 man pen is a normative, or accepted, operating mode.

The Jays optioned Sanchez to skip a start for him.

It's not the Jays' fault - they're playing by the rules - but I find this sort of fiddling with the active roster annoying. It's all because MLB is still using the same 25-man roster they used back when the average pitching staff completed dozens of games a year. (As recently as 1986, the American League team average was 25 CGs a year. Last year, the league average was 4.) The current roster size was actually set back in something like 1914.

It would make far more sense for a team to have a 28 or 29 man roster. This would enable them to carry a full complement of pitchers and enough bench players to not force someone to have to be able to play any of six positions in an emergency. And it would allow the Jays to skip Sanchez for a start without having to spend 10 days in Buffalo eating chicken wings or something. And the Bisons wouldn't have to be short a pitcher for 10 days while they stashed Sanchez on their roster.

Of course, the Lords Of Baseball [tm] will never vote for an increase in roster sizes, as this would force them to pay more money to the players. This would never do.

his move also means that Dickey's next two starts will be against the Angels and Twins, while Sanchez's return will be at Baltimore (Estrada/Happ/Sanchez scheduled for that series). Works out pretty nicely.

So it looks like a way to skip his start and give him some time, while not depriving him of service time, and being able to replace him on the 25 man. Recalling Loup means they are back to Gibbons' standard 8 man pen.

"...The Blue Jays opened the year with an 8 man pen, and until the 6 man rotation have largely kept that..."

Not correct.  It's primarily been a 7-man bullpen, with occasional diversions into an 8-man or 6-man bullpen. 

Of course the team needs an 8th reliever when they are off tomorrow, could use a defensive upgrade at all 3 outfield positions, and Donaldson and Tulowitzki are banged up.

Not correct. It's primarily been a 7-man bullpen, with occasional diversions into an 8-man or 6-man bullpen.

The jays opened the season with the following 8 relief pitchers - Chavez, Osuna, Storen, Biagini, Tepera, Floyd, Cecil and Arnold Leon. As far as a regular structure, this is leaving out the one day on May 27 that they had a 6 man pen in adjusting their roster, it looks to me that the only times they've had a 7 man pen is the two week period when Paredes was on the roster from May 16-30, and the period when they had a 6 man rotation from August 5 to today when they went back to the 8 man. CF, i welcome correction if I'm wrong, but as I review the roster moves, these are only times they've worked with a 7 man pen, and the 6 man pen was a one day roster adjustment. I would welcome your pointing out the periods from Opening Day to today which would lead one to suggest that they've "primarily" been a 7 man pen team this year.

Of course the team needs an 8th reliever when they are off tomorrow, could use a defensive upgrade at all 3 outfield positions, and Donaldson and Tulowitzki are banged up.

I'm guessing the Mayday move today has Barney playing the outfield. In fact Darwin may be a better left fielder than Carrera, as sad as that is.

Can't wait till Pillar is back. This outfield's defense scares me.

lexomatic has argued that it is unlikely that Ortiz, having tested positive in 2003 would return to drugs. If only that were true. The answer is, the evidence of recidivism is much stronger than the evidence that anybody quit. The guys who tested positive in 2003 included Bonds, who kept doping, Clemens who kept doping, Rodriguez who kept doping, and Ramirez who kept doping. The sad fact is that the manufacturers are ahead of the testers. They manufacture to the test. The Al Jazeera doc on youtube is a good expose of that industry.

Actually you are totally misreading what I said, but I was on the phone and it took way too long to type even my short post.
I meant that with the testing measures in place, I think it would be likely there would be a positive result.
 I do believe it's possible for PED users to be ahead of testing measures - but baseball seems to have the most stringent testing out there. As I'm not aware of any public knowledge of failed tests since - and with the internet full of people people looking to defame people where there is no grounds other than suspicious minds, I think there would be some by now - I think you're just making wild claims based on opinion and no evidence. THAT is what I find hard to swallow.

At this point  I suggest you find proof or consider your point made. I don't agree with you, but I certainly don't think this is something worth arguing about any further.
 I mostly wanted to correct the above.

Marcus Stroman has been awfully impressive.  It's nice to have him back. 

And the 6th found lots of holes. Broadcast talking about 3rd time through hitting .280 against him. So frustrating.
This whole balk thing right now is driving me NUTS.

Why would Francona be out there yelling at the ump when the call went in his team's favour?

Francona was probably complaining about the balk being called in the first place.

Makes sense. Thanks, hypobole.

I kind of missed Brett Cecil losing games in the late innings like it was April. Feeling nostalgic.

Cecil, man.

It's better to be lucky than good. 2016 Cecil is neither.

Ha! good one SK. That made me feel a whole lot better, I think.

No Barney for Goins?

No idea why Gibby removes Stroman in this situation. Cecil hung his curve for the entire inning, unfortunately Ramirez squared one.

The K's are simply too high for this offence, its a disturbing rate

It's always funny when they introduce Cecil and they have to talk about his numbers.

Today it was "kinda skewed".  Not sure what that's supposed to mean, but the numbers got worse again.

No idea why Gibby removes Stroman in this situation.

I'm okay with it. Stroman is only a year older than Sanchez, and is already on his career high in innings pitched.

Brett Cecil is living in the shadow of a huge, dark cloud. Trouble seems to follow him wherever he goes.

I would have had Tepera pitching - he's impressed & closed in Buffalo, while Cecil is a shell of his former self.

To be fair, Cecil has been fantastic the last month. Since July 21, before today's game: 12 games, 9 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 3 walks, 1 run, 12 K's, ERA 0.93, WHIP 0.62, opponents' BA .094, opponents' OPS .359.

Why would you have Goins bat in the 9th down one run? That seems crazy.

Why would you have Goins bat in the 9th down one run? That seems crazy.

agreed

I'm actually quite happy with that series. When the Jays play three one run games in a row, it feels lucky and awesome to just not get swept.

I don't think Goins covered himself in glory out there, either; he got a tough hop, but a player in the majors because of his glove should be making that play more often than not. His CS earlier in the game cost them at least one run, too.

I was wondering if Gibbons thinks guys arms fall off at pitch #101. I wouldn't trust Cecil with a lead or tie game unless the rest of the pen was unavailable right now. Also wondering what photos Going has of Gibbons to be allowed to hit in the 9th inning.

The Goins "caught stealing" was a hit and run that Travis swung on but failed to make contact

13 more Ks today.

It's not just the strikeouts. What is it with strikeouts looking, on fastballs?

Thanks hypobole. The Cleveland radio broadcast seemed to imply it was a straight steal.

Trouble seems to follow him wherever he goes.

It does, as it has followed the Blue Jays this weekend where every mistake has been duly punished. On Friday, bad defence from Travis, Saunders and Upton. On Saturday, bad defence from Travis. On Sunday, letting Brett Cecil turn around a power hitter to hit right, where Cecil has given up an opp. .847 OPS this year going into today, was at best questionable.

As to looking at only Cecil's work in the period from July 21, there seems to be no more reason to begin July 21 than there is July 20, when Cecil gave up 3 runs in a third of an inning. He's not been a good choice against power righties all year, and Francona no doubt didn't mind the matchup with Ramirez.

But the Cecil decision aside, it's a bit of a vanity to focus on pitching decisions when you score two runs in the AL. It's very hard for AL teams to win games scoring 2 runs or less. I did a quick check back from yesterday, and of the last 34 AL teams before today to score 2 or fewer runs, I think only 3 times did a team win. The Blue Jays offence has not performed well after the break, ranking 9th in the AL in team OPS, last in batting average, and 11th in OBP. They've been lucky so far to be 6th in runs scored, but they trail the leaders Boston and Cleveland by a considerable amount. Cleveland has scored 2 runs or less 5 times and lost them all since the break. Boston 8 times and lost them all. Toronto has now scored 2 runs or less 11 times since the break in 33 games, and has been able to win twice. It puts a lot of pressure on the pitching when the offence performs this poorly.

Jose Ramirez has an IsoP of just over .100 hitting from the right side. He has more power from the left.

The pitch he hit wasn't great but also was not in a terrible location. It pretty much had to be hit down the line to go.

The decision to favour Goins over Smoak to lead off the 9th probably had a lot to do with who was hotter (or more accurately less cold).

Cringed when I saw the boxscore.

Man it sucks that Cecil keeps getting burned. As someone else mentioned he seemed to be back to his old self the past dozen or so appearances; it just hasn't been his year.

Again, stop blaming pitchers. With any kind of offense in August, Jays would likely be up 3/4 games. The offence has been pitiful to say the least. And usually reliable defense has slipped of late as well.

Jose Ramirez has an IsoP of just over .100 hitting from the right side. He has more power from the left.

Here are Ramirez' splits this year. He's even.

Vs. RHP .310/.365/.455/.820
Vs. LHP .314/.367/.458/.825

The problem is Cecil vs. RHP. Here are his splits this year.

Vs. RHB .288/.338/.508/.847
Vs. LHB .279/.326/.372/.698

The problem has been RHB's slg % with Cecil this year. That showed only a couple of weeks ago, when he was left to turn Kendrys Morales around, who hit a grand slam. But today, Ramirez was the winning run, which made the decision all the more questionable.

As I tried to say, I'm not ripping Gibbons for losing when the team scored 2 runs. But if the best test is whether we would want to see Gibbons have Cecil face a RHB with a .458 slg % as the winning run in the 8th again, I don't think we, or at least I, do.

At least Cecil picked the right season to start falling apart. If he'd kept on posting FIP's below 3, there'd be a lot of people getting angry when the team lets him walk at the end of 2016.

Still though, you'd really like to see better performances from a bullpen arm "earning" $3.8M this year.

Surprised how little talk there is about Sanchez being sent down to Dunedin today. Yeah, just a roster shuffle to allow more relievers (Loup) as the Jays planned to skip a Sanchez start. Most outlets seem to be saying the Jays will call him back for the 31st so he can face the Orioles on the last game of the series in Baltimore. At first I thought it was odd as you'd want him up on the 1st to avoid sending someone else down for 10 days with expanded rosters on the 1st but if they wait then he pitches on the 2nd vs Tampa instead.

Hrm... might make more sense to do that checking the schedule. Then (6 man rotation) Sanchez goes on 2nd vs Tampa, 9th vs Red Sox, 15th vs Angels, 21st vs Mariners, 28th vs Orioles, and is lined up for the first game of the playoffs (be it wildcard or ALDS).

After the off day tomorrow, home for a six game homestand (3 against Angels, 3 against Twins)

They really need to win those series. It would be a great time for a sweep and a 2/3.

Benoit/Grilli/Osuna all pitched on Friday and Saturday, and Biagini pitched two innings Saturday, so it was either going to be Cecil or Feldman for the 8th, and I think they are saving Feldman for longer outings.

Cecil has more losses than anyone in the team aside from Dickey. He had a WPA of -1.11 coming into today's game. Hard contact is up, line drives are up, groundballs are way down, etc. I can understand why Gibbons goes to Benoit in the 7th. The value of any win at this point is very valuable, and Cecil simply hasn't been very reliable this season.

Benoit/Grilli/Osuna all pitched on Friday and Saturday, and Biagini pitched two innings Saturday, so it was either going to be Cecil or Feldman for the 8th, and I think they are saving Feldman for longer outings.

Wasn't Stroman the first option to pitch the last 2/3 of the 8th?

With today's game, Cecil tied his second-highest single-season loss total of his career.

The last time he lost seven games, though, he also won fifteen of them and led the team. I know pitching wins/losses shouldn't matter, but for bullpen arms, shouldn't they matter at least a little? The Sandman himself once had a six-loss season, but he also put in 80 innings of work and saved 50 games. With a 2.34 ERA.

High-leverage relievers in general really shouldn't lose many games... if they get tagged with a lot of losses, why are they put in high-leverage situations? One month of good pitching shouldn't be enough to make Gibbons forget how badly Cecil stunk up the place in the entire first half of the season.

Wasn't Estrada also available to pitch?

I think the "can't win scoring only 2 runs" talk is nonsense. The bullpen blew 2 leads and they would have blown a 5-4 lead just as well as a 2-1 lead. I agree that the bullpen is not going to have a zero ERA and they could have used some insurance runs. The 7-8-9 guys are usually very good, but can they go nigh-night-afternoon? Biagini can often pick up the slack here, but he was busy yesterday earning the win.  Often switch-hitter have problems turning around late in games. Cecil needed just one out here and Tepera was probably going to try for the save with at least a 60% chance of success.

My takeaway is that the Jays should be able to beat this team in a playoff setting. Better pitching. Better hitting. They just need to watch the defense.

Danny Valencia and Billy Butler got into a fight in the clubhouse on Friday. Butler has stayed home the last two days due to dizziness and vomiting.

Valencia has a reputation as a bad clubhouse guy. It was after he was traded last season that the Jays took off on their great run.

On the positive side, strong performances by Liriano, Stroman and Feldman plus Upton's bat coming alive are nice consolations for lost opportunities.

Apparently Butler told an "equipment representative" that Valencia wasn't using the cleats he was claiming to be using. You've gotta hate someone pretty bad if you dare to mess up their cleat sponsorships!

I think the "can't win scoring only 2 runs" talk is nonsense.

It's not impossible - everyone's done it at least once. But it's still pretty difficult. AL teams have played .196 ball this year (48-196) when they score 2 runs. Toronto's been even worse than that (2-18). The absolute worst has been Baltimore (1-15), although the Angels (3-20) actually have the most losses.

The best, by a mile, is the great fluke team of 2016: Texas is 7-6 when they score exactly two runs. Detroit's done very well (3-6) in a very small sample. The Yankees also have a good record (6-13) when scoring twice.

"Wasn't Stroman the first option to pitch the last 2/3 of the 8th?"


Yes, and he should have. If Gibbons was going to take the trouble of having him warm up and pitch to one batter in the inning (who he got out), then he might as well have let him stay in the game. Having him face one batter, after warming up to pitch that inning, and then taking him out to preserve his workload (which is the only reason I could think of as to why he was removed) then they might as well have let Cecil start the inning and lived with the consequences. That would have at least made sense in the context of removing Stroman from the game.

I was just pointing out that the pen options were probably limited due all the key guys working the previous two nights. If Gibbons was going to use Grilli or Benoit, then they probably would have started that inning instead of Stroman.

wish there was a limited edit

Any time I want to post something, I have to hit Preview before the Submit Comment button appears. Try using that as the time to make edits. "Haste makes waste."

One of the things about Gibby is that he generally makes his lineup & pitching substitutions based on a limited number of factors such as:
1. Performance history of hitter vs. pitcher, regardless of sample size.
2. Lefty / Righty splits
3. Pitch Count

The decision to let Stroman pitch to one batter (Santana) in the 8th had all 3 elements:
1. Santana is 5 for 10 lifetime vs. Cecil... but Kipnis is 1 for 9 lifetime vs. Cecil.
2. Santana hits LHP & RHP equally well. But Kipnis is notably worse against LHP.
3. Stroman has a "soft limit" of 100 pitches, based on his usage this season. He had 97 after 7 innings and thus could conceivably pitch to 1 more batter -- but any more would be pushing into new pitch count territory with him (season highs are 109 and 106 (x2)).

The choices for the 8th were Cecil, Tepera, Feldman, or Loup - Osuna was being saved for the 9th and Grilli & Benoit weren't going to be used 3 days in a row. I suppose you can make an argument for any of the four guys but Cecil has the most experience in high leverage situations and had been pitching well over the past 4 weeks... he was probably the best option and the plan worked perfectly (Stroman got Santana, Cecil got Kipnis) until it didn't.

Here's a question.  How many seasons have there been in MLB since 1900 where a pitcher has struck out more than 9 per 9 IP, walked fewer than 2.5 per 9 IP, had an ERA over 5 and thrown more than 25 innings?

1) 1-5
2) 5-10
3) 10-15
4) 15-20
5) 20-30
6) 30-40
7) 40-50
8) 51+

I would have guessed that the answer was well over 100.  It is not.  I would have also guessed that several starters have done it, but in fact only one has- Ricky Nolasco in 2009. 

Valencia has a reputation as a bad clubhouse guy. It was after he was traded last season that the Jays took off on their great run.

Interesting! In 2014, the Royals were 53-51 on July 27. They then traded Valencia. After that, they were 36-22.

There seems to be a two-season carryover.  Powerful cleansing mojo!

The Jays have let minor league pitching coordinator and fan favourite Sal Fasano go, reducing the team's cool moustache count significantly.

They should just fire everybody at the same time and get it over with..... goodbye Gibby, Pete, etc.

Why fire Fasano now?  Is this firing season for these positions?  Parker I get - wait till he completes the draft - but the timing on the rest of these firings seems odd to me.

And, like them or not, we are likely sticking with Walker, Gibby, etc if we make the playoffs .... hard to fire guys when you are winning.  I guess if we got stomped in the first round or something. 

the poll results at blue jays nation (you've come a long way, Drunk Jays Fan) are surprising on the topic of how good John Gibbons is.  60% of just over 2000 votes give Gibby a B+ or higher. 

More grist for the mill on one run losses. Looking at the 22 losses to date, a whopping 10 happened- almost half- while the Jays had the lead in the 7th, 7 happened after we were tied in the 7th, while only 5 of the losses occurred when the Jays were already losing.

Of the 10, 7 happened in the first two months, and 3 happened this month to date. In July when we had our great run, there were no losses in that category.

Will be interesting to see if the recent blip is just a blip (I suspect so) but this data suggests there's more than just bad luck at play in our year to date one run loss challenge.

They then traded Valencia. After that, they were 36-22.

Meanwhile, Oakland had been playing .439 ball (47-60) when they claimed him on waivers. They played .382 (21-34) ball the rest of the way, despite the fact that Valencia himself played just great for them.

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth here among bauxites when he was let go last year. The Great Danny Valencia Debate went on for weeks.

The Royals traded Valencia on July 28, 2014. They were 53-51 at the time. After the trade, they went 36-22 and finished with a Wild Card spot to end a near 30 year playoff drought.

The Jays designated Valencia for assignment on August 1, 2015. They were 53-51 at the time. After they let him go, they went 40-18 and finished with a division title to end a 22 year playoff drought.

I kind of wish the Jays acquired Valencia at the deadline this year, let him play on the team for a week, and then released him. Why not?

Thinking that any player's attitude would cause a team to do poorly or improve is ridiculous. Plenty of teams didn't get along and they won and I'm sure plenty of teams were best friends and didn't win. You think teams would pay $8M/1 WAR a year and then ignore chemistry if it gave you an extra 5 wins?

This issue when you read about it seems like almost entirely Butler's fault. Interestingly, Hosmer, Crisp, and Alonso all said that Valencia was a great teammate. All three played with Butler as well but didn't mention him which implies he isn't much of a teammate.

"There was a lot of gnashing of teeth here among bauxites when he was let go last year. The Great Danny Valencia Debate went on for weeks."


I still think DFA Valencia was a mistake. If they didn't want him on the team anymore, then why not trade him? Even if they got back an Erik Kratz level player in return, it would have been something. He had a 127 wRC+ and 0.7 WAR in 173 PA with the Jays in 2015. He finished with a 2.3 WAR on the season (combined TOR/OAK). He could play 1B and 3B, which was ideal for the Jays since he could cover in case of a Donaldson injury. He was an asset. Also, Colabello had options left so they could have optioned him for a month and brought him back up in September while keeping Valencia as well. The move (DFA him) never really made any sense.

Now, maybe the players hated him and that's why they let him go (I haven't read/heard anything about that). Fine. I have no problem with getting rid of him; just don't lose him for nothing. He was still a useful player.

If you haven't heard, Encarnacion is being sued over lying about not carrying any STDs, then transmitting them.

Since wishcasting past years minor roster moves interests me not, for Mike Green's Question, I'll guess option 4)

Not sure why you would think it would happen often. Striking out more than 1/inning was rare until recent years, especially for guys who didn't walk many (walks are at a low point right now, I think). In 1986 only one guy managed to qualify for the non-ERA portion of your criteria, and only 12 managed the strikeout and IP qualification. In 1996 I see 4 guys qualifying for the non-ERA list, 3 top closers and peak Smoltz. High K and low BB is basically the elite guys in pitching history.

I guess a few more guys are likely to start hitting the list as K's stay up, walks down, HRs up, and there are more short relievers to fluke into a high ERA. Looks like Pineda could make it this year as a starter...

I don't know anything about Valencia as a person, so I have no way of judging whether he was a good teammate. It's interesting that teams have improved after they have jettisoned him, but it could very well be coincidence.

I had no problem with the Jays releasing him in 2015, though. His primary role on a team is to be a right-handed hitting third baseman, and the Jays already had a rather good one of those, thank you very much. There was no real place for him.

It's interesting that teams have improved after they have jettisoned him, but it could very well be coincidence.

Yeah, hard to imagine that one person's mere clubhouse influence could be so dramatic. Implausible, really, unless he was spiking their food with valium or something.

A team improving simply by getting rid of Valencia is extremely far fetched. The parallels between the Royals and Jays in 2014/15 after they got rid of him (including having the exact same record at the time) is more funny than anything else. If the Jays kept Valencia and optioned Colabello last season, it would not have cost them the pennant or anything.

AWeb, the minimum number of innings was what had me fooled.  I figured that there would be any number of relievers with short seasons for one reason or another (late call-up, injury) with good W and K rates and a bad ERA.  Anyways, the answer is 14.  You were close. 

I checked the number of seasons with W and K rates that met the IP minimum.  It was 352.  When I set the IP minimum at 125, there were 87 such seasons and only one that met the ERA greater than 5 (Nolasco's).  So, it looks like 13 times out of 265 relief seasons (roughly 5%), pitchers who had great W and K rates were stung with nasty ERAs. 

we can never really know but i don't think it's impossible that certain players can be poison pills for a team.

but it's probably too simple to divide it into "good/bad chemistry" or "liked/disliked teammate".

as for Valencia, i mean we don't really think AA dumped him without even trying to suss out his market value first, do we?