Alright, let's beat the crap out of these guys.

Especially cause they are going to be damn good in a year or two, once that huge prospect haul makes it to the bigs.  Judge is a monster and he's just the first wave of talent - not to mention all the salary space coming free in the next year or two. 

Anyone notice that Betances has 102 Ks in just over 56 IPs?  Before they broke it up, that was perhaps the most fearsome threesome I've seen out of the pen. 

Having just listened to Smoak strike out again and noted that Montero has been very hot lately, should there be some consideration to bringing him up?

Everyone is striking out against this guy, continuing the Jays history of whiffing on new guys. At least Smoak and Upton took counts deep in that inning unlike our regulars in the next.

What did the Yankees do with this kid? He went 5-14 in AA a year ago in the Detroit system. The Yankees picked him up this winter and he was simply dominant for Scranton-Wilkes Barre in the International League. And now this.

A bullet, dodged. Very nice play by Biagini and Thole to save a run.

Yes, but Smaok has been awful for a while.

He is what he is that's true. But a nine pitch at bat here. He's clearly battling. But you're not going to win many games when the top four go 0/12. Now we'll get Betances for the ninth.

Fine, he walked. Still inexcusable to have Thole hit for himself.

One run loss.

Yeah well of the four times on base the bottom of the order got two of them. Jays aren't going to win many games when the top four suck so bad.

A great Houdini act by the pitching staff nullified by the disappearing act of the top 4 in the lineup.

On the bright side, Martin got a well-deserved full night off.

What a frustrating game! Smoak is 0 for 28 with runners in scoring position since June.

I feel like Smoak is worse than his numbers indicate because he really just can't hit non-fastball pitches (according to Fangraphs he rates as okay against changeups).

As a result, he's an easy guy for opposing teams to plan around. In a high-leverage situation, put in the guy with a great curve. Even worse, most great pitchers have some kind of moving pitch whether it's a curve or slider, making Smoak pretty much worthless anytime it actually matters. When's the last time Smoak did anything of note against a top tier pitcher? From my experience, though I'll admit I could easily have forgotten, Smoak has never come up clutch late.

Darwin Barney, on the other hand has had a few clutch hits this year. I wonder if that's partly because he has less glaring flaws. He struggles against the fastball a bit, but not as badly or as loudly (?) as Smoak not being able to hit the curve. That's just a theory, take it what you will as it's based on a very amateur reading of PitchFX data.

If you can't tell, I really hate the Smoak contract. I think you can find similar players at a low cost pretty much at will.

One run loss... could have been a lot more if the Yankees had any success ( / luck) with runners on base.

Oh, and the Barney comp I thought was also notable because Smoak, at least by most metrics is a better hitter than Barney yet does worse in the clutch.

really think this strikeout stuff is just a lack of focus. they're a little too cocky right now.

Why didn't the Jays try to steal in the 9th? The Yanks announcers said base stealers were 18-18 vs Betances. If Lake steals, he scores. If JD goes, he avoids the double play. Infuriating loss after such a high wire act for the Jays pitchers. It really does seem when the Jays are fabulously lucky (as they were to only give up 1 run) it never matters and they lose anyway.

I'm not happy with all the Ks but if you're going to have 8 or 9 pitch at bats doing it that has some value at least. Like Four Seamer said the top of the lineup lost us the game tonight.

It's the rare baseball game that's as boring as your typical soccer game, but that was one. I think I need to wash my eyeballs out with Drano.

the top of the lineup has won lots of games for us. would be nice for the bottom to pick them up once in a while.

on a positive note, ceciliani is starting to make some good contact and looks good on defense too.

Isn't Ceciliani due to go down for Carrera?

can they send down upton or liriano instead?

Team right now has five solid bats and a bunch of black holes. Bautista is merely below average, but everyone else is awful. Including Pillar, Saunders, Thole, Upton, Barney and of course Smoak,

Last 30 days wRC+ (before tonight):

Encarnacion 167 (114pa)
Travis 148 (105pa)
Martin 147 (81pa)
Tulo 122 (87pa)
Donaldson 116 (113pa)
Bautista 87 (69pa)
Smoak 72 (55pa)
Saunders 68 (95pa)
Pillar 50 (73pa)

Thole 61 (27pa)
Upton -4 (54pa)
Barney -13 (55pa)
Carrera -38 (20pa)

Lol it's so sad that Smoak is seventh on that list. As bad as he's been it just shows how crappy the others are hitting.

One run loss

And using my newly devised One-Run Game Classification system (see "Texas and the One Run Fundamental") this goes into the books as Opp Held a Lead. Second such one-run loss this season. So far, it does appear to be the least common type of one-run decision.

Barney hasn't been playing much, Carrera has been on the DL. Upton had hits in the previous 3 games, so he's on the mend. Upton might be the type of guy who needs to get used to the pitchers. He's got picked off twice trying to steal, for one.
Maybe he just went from bad, to mediocre to decent in the NL as he was learning the pitchers. Also, wRC+ might not be the best measure for him. A single from Upton is worth more than a single from Smoak.

They didn't try to steal on the young catcher because he's got a cannon.

I'm not sure if Martin needed the rest, but it's likely that tonight game is rained out and surely Thole would catch half of a doubleheader.

They really could have used a win there. It's not like the Jays can pitch and defend better in the next two games.

Why didn't the Jays try to steal in the 9th? The Yanks announcers said base stealers were 18-18 vs Betances.

Maybe the defensive rep of that young catcher Sanchez?  Kid's known for having a big arm -  not that McCann is a bum or anything, but he does seem to be slowing down a bit this year.

Looks like we drafted Green outta HS in 2010 but he went to college instead.  Man, that was a strong draft, even better if 35th rounder Danny Barnes can get a chance to stick in the bigs.  We also tried to get some Kris Bryant kid out of HS that year.

It wasn't a straight steal, but they did try to Hit & Run in the 9th, with Travis at-bat on a 2-1 count. He popped out foul and Lake got back in time. It didn't work out, but I think it was the right play for the situation, instead of trying a straight steal. Travis is the perfect Hit & Run guy -- high contact %, uses the entire field, etc... and there was a huge hole on the 2nd base side with Lake running. Didn't work out, but the strategy made sense to me.

I think Zeke will likely be activated today (or very shortly) and he'll be a welcome addition to bottom of the line-up, assuming Travis keeps leading off (and he should).

With this lineup struggling like it has, I think we just gotta hope for Pillar and Bautista to come back and at least provide the production they were before. It's not great, but its far better than Upton and Smoak. Right now the lineup has 5 good players and a bunch of black holes. Either the bad players need to step up or we need a good hot run from 2 of the top 5.

I was looking through Fangraphs team page for off team WAR. (well the off component of it) Last year for the full year the Jays were like 133. This year at the 3/4 mark of the year they're at 3. Smoak himself has gone from -0.9 to -3.4, so he's not helping. But he's not high on the reasons this team's offense is underperforming.

I think in any stretch you'll have a few guys killing it (like Travis/EE/Martin have been) a few guys doing ok (tulo/donaldson/bautista), and a few guys sucking. I don't think it's unusual. In fact, for most teams that would be pretty great.

and I think we can have faith in Bautista and Saunders hitting decently and pillar being great defensively.

the only issue would be that the upton/smoak/carrera spot could be a black hole offensively and defensively, and there's not much reason to have faith in them bouncing back like there is with bautista and saunders.

selfishly I don't really mind if they all continue to suck because it makes it more likely that Pompey gets a look there eventually.

I think Pompey will get the opportunity to start next season. Then, it will be up to him to show that he is worthy. Let's hope that he is.

My hope is that Bautista will generally DH and EE play 1B going forward once Bautista is back.  Gotta think with the injuries he's had this year he should be open to that concept.  Add Pillar/Carrera back into the mix, and you can run a Saunders-Pillar-Upton OF against LHP, and a Saunders-Pillar-Carrera OF against RHP.  The lineup is (again) missing 2 bats, and last night Thole was in for Martin.  Add Bautista/Martin/Pillar into last night's lineup at the expense of Thole/Smoak and either Ceciliani or Upton and who knows what you end up with.

a Saunders-Pillar-Upton OF against LHP, and a Saunders-Pillar-Carrera OF against RHP

Carrera actually drops off against RHP. Career splits: 735/650. 2016 splits: 959/619.

The only argument for starting Carrera against a RHP is that Upton is hitting so poorly as a Jay.

As Chuck mentioned, Carrera is not an ideal platoon partner. Other than being able to bat LH, he's typically not that good against RHP.

Upton has been absolutely dreadful so far, but the team's best course is to simply play him and hope he corrects himself. Other than playing Pompey full-time (which they clearly do not want to do this season), that's the team's best internal option, with Bautista at DH full-time.

Yeah - I guess it's only if you think that Carrera vs. RHP is better right now than Upton vs. RHP.  I generally agree that historically Upton should just play full time over Carrera, irrespective of handedness.

I wouldn't discount Pompey playing full time in September just yet.  If Saunders/Upton can't turn it around, is it really that ridiculous to play Pompey in RF and have those 2 platoon in LF?  I get it that they want him to play every day, which they don't seem to want to do in Toronto now, but in September...why not?

Last 5yrs:

Smoak: 1964pa, 96wrc+, 0.1fwar/650
Carrera: 666pa, 90wrc+, 1.4fwar/650
Pompey: 146pa, 88wrc+, 2.5fwar/650
Upton: 2320pa, 85wrc+, 1.5fwar/650
Barney: 1690pa, 70wrc+, 1.9fwar/650

Well I wouldn't put much into that sample size of Pompey's. Regardless I like them not screwing around with him and giving him every day playing time in the minors. As for the rest of the list, given that Smoak is an upgrade defensively over EE and I don't want EE being a fulltime 1b he makes the most sense to play until Jose comes back, at which point they can return to doing what they did before they got injured, which is cycling the bad OFs through the DH position with a game or two a week for Smoak.

Thole has looked pretty comfortable at the plate for awhile now, he's been having better ABs and hitting the ball harder without the results. I liked the decision to give Martin the full day off, but sure, it would be great if the front office wasn't forcing Gibbons to manage games shorthanded. You should not need 7 relievers when you have 6 starters.

I agree that Thole has looked a little better.  I don't know what happened in April in Toronto, but quite a few of the hitters including Thole were legendarily bad.

The long bullpen was an issue under the Anthopoulos administration as well.  In that light, it seems to me likely that Gibbons has a preference for at least a 7 man pen at all times (he probably would prefer a 5 man rotation though- the 6th man is surely a front office decision).

With an abysmal OPS of .672 in August so far, the Jays have had the third-worst OPS in the entire major leagues this month.   It's amazing that they're still tied for first place in the division when their offense has been so terrible.  The good news, I suppose, is that they must inevitably regress to the norm at some point, and let's hope it's very soon.

Lake DFA'd and Carrera off the DL and in the lineup tonight, according to The Fan 590.

A different lineup tonight. Carrera, Upton and Ceciliani in the outfield with Smoak resting.

Carrera pushes Smoak to the bench tonight. Just as well, I've had too much Smoak in my eyes lately.

Chuck I really like your sense of humor. Cheers !!!!

This is a historically great pennant race taking shape in the AL East. Or it would if it weren't for the Wild Card fallback.

The good news about Boston playing Baltimore is that one of them has to lose. The bad news...

On the flip side of the offense is the team's 2.83 ERA in August. They continue to lead MLB in ERA as well as runs given up per game, in case you worry about passed balls. I wasn't worried when the team wasn't hitting that well in the beginning of the year because the starting rotation was ridiculously good, and that's pretty much maintained itself halfway through August. If it continues, I still think they win the division easily.

I'll definitely be rooting for BAL, as I still am skeptical of their rotation and think BOS has the better 1-25 roster when healthy.

Neither team has an off day until September 1st, so we're rooting for grueling 15 inning affairs that have effects on their bullpen for series to come. I didn't really notice until the stretch of 2015 how advantageous having a dome can be for a contending team.

So Lake was DFAed before and no-one claimed him?

BOS has the better 1-25 roster when healthy

Agreed. Boston looks to me like a much better, much more dangerous team than the Orioles.

This offense is so bad right now, and that sadly includes the top of the lineup.

The Jays' best chance here may be to stall for these heavy rains that are supposedly coming, before this game becomes official.

So much for that idea.

And now it's official. Good idea, though!

It looks like the night will end with 3 teams tied in first place.

Mookie with the HR, and a three way tie at the top of the division is taking shape.

Is there some kind of Box mind-meld at work here?

Yankees will only be 3.5 back and have been playing well. The division is wide open.

The rains, it would seem, have washed away the sins of the past. Could the offense be born again?

Well, this is fun.

Yeah either that or I reverse jinxed them! Yay to show me wrong. :)

I always liked Faith more than Careless Whisper...

Return of the offense.

This is the Jays offense they need the rest of the way. If the stars are hitting like stars, especially when Jose gets back, they'll be in good shape. Jays have the lead now but still need to hold them in the 8th and 9th.

Is Osuna still around or did they send him to the hotel a couple of hours ago?

First time I've seen rain cause in explosion.

It's funny to see the comments turn from despair to jubilation. Jays scoreless in 14 innings against the Yanks, then put up 12 runs in the next 3 innings. Baseball is a funny game.

Don't know if anyone posted Feldman's strange numbers as a Jay prior to tonight.

ERA 13.50
FIP 1.82

Price versus Tillman tomorrow, so they need to win the next one to stay alone at the top.

Feldman certainly is a big improvement over Chavez and he was a bit unlucky his first appearances. Hopefully he settles in as the long man.

Also not Tilllman tomorrow. They're pushing him back I read. Bundy will be starting tomorrow. Definitely rooting for the Orioles in that game.

Prior to tonight's game, Feldman had given up 13 hits in 5.1 innings with the Jays, and 11 of those hits were singles (2 doubles, 0 home runs), with 1 walk and 5 strike outs. He was definitely unlucky. Tonight's game was a nice bounce back for him.

I want to believe that there was a lot of screaming, yelling, and chair throwing in the clubhouse during that rain delay, and that it's the turning point for this offense.

Better narrative than them just taking advantage of weaker pitchers, at least.

Yankees trivia. Gregorius hit his 16th HR tonight, and only one shortstop in franchise history has hit more in a season. (Granted, he did so seven times.)

So Oakland scores two runs in the top of the 10th in Texas, and Axford comes on to close out the game. But with one out, he walks the bases loaded and gives up a two-run single to Beltran. Tie game, runners on first and second, Beltre batting. Melvin brings in a LHP (our old friend Rzepczynski) to issue an intentional walk, loading the bases. Rzep then throws a fifth consecutive hit in the LH batter's box. Which is where Odor is standing. Game-winning waslk-off HBP.

Maybe this is why the Rangers have such a ridiculous record in one-run games. Opposing managers just get struck by the Stupid when they go to Texas.

Tom Tresh played 111 games at shortstop in '62 (but the other 43 in LF) for the Yankees and hit 20 HR's.

Tresh had 15 HRs, all as a shortstop, when Tony Kubek finished his military service in mid-August and returned to the lineup. Tresh went to LF at that point, and hit the other 5.

Nice comeback win - with the rain interruption & playing the Yankees without that awesome BP - better to be lucky than good. The Yankees likely did the smart thing with selling but man a 4-way race would have been fantastic. Estrada's back is worrisome, left a lot of pitches up.

Mookie Betts is awesome - when the Jays let Farrell go to Boston in the winter of 2012 I was hoping they would get back a lottery ticket rather than a pedestrian ML like Aviles - I wonder if Betts was ever on their radar.

The Red Sox & Yankees look set for longterm contention, will be a stiff test for the acquisition/Development departments of the rest of the division.

I'm curious to see how they limit Sanchez innings after his next start in Cleveland.
They could do 4 tandem starts with Liriano, which is kinda like moving him into the pen.
The problem with that is, if Liriano has bad starts, they're essentially wasting him.

So, just make him skip a start? Can they send him back to AAA if they do that?
They can call him back after 10 days and that wouldn't even waste an option...

"....they must inevitably regress to the norm at some point...."

When I tweeted this before last night's game, I didn't imagine the Jays offence would revert to its norms so fast. 

But there was no way that the offence would continue stagnating at its dreadful August OPS of just .672, third-lowest in the majors.  They were due for a correction.  If the correction continues, in tandem with the good pitching that they've shown over the past three months, the Jays will win the division for sure.

Pretty fun to scroll through this the morning after and be able to easily spot the point where #naptogether happened this year. :)

I did not know that steroids may have performance-enhancing effects long after usage stops.

Only 26 thousand in Baltimore for such a key series - The Orioles have problems.

Mookie Betts is awesome

He's very nearly a Pedroia clone, isn't he - a little second baseman who just destroys anything on the inner half. (Betts is an outfielder because Pedroia's already on his team.)

But even better, of course. Did anyone expect this kind of power? It's not a Fenway thing - his home field mainly helps his BAVG, not his power.

well, fenway doesn't hurt him, that's for sure.

2016: .277iso @home, .232iso @road
Career: .223iso @home, .195iso @road

nice article on fangraphs yesterday explaining how pitchers are still challenging him with dead red fastballs as if he's a slap hitter, which explains both his lower than expected walk totals and better than expected power.


Still, nice to see the Red Sox get themselves a 23yr old MVP candidate to catch up to us having a 23yr old Cy candidate.

Betts and Pedroia have quite a few differences.  Pedroia swings very hard, but has exceptional plate discipline/contact ability.  Betts has the Hank Aaron twitch thing- it's appropriate that he ends up in right field.  It doesn't surprise me at all that he has added power- I have always thought that he was a much better prospect than Bogaerts. 

No doubt Betts has always been the gem of their youth group.

Bogaerts is fading along with his crazy babip, and his defense at SS seems to be fading as well. Bradley is more interesting but then again at age 26 he's not really even young.

I like Benintendi but not sure he's gonna be Bettsian. Moncada to me feels overrated but we'll see.

Barney at third while Donaldson DHs today. Ceciliani, Upton and Carrera in the OF.

Saunders, Smoak sit and sell sea shells by the sea shore.

Saunders had been striking out 25-30% of the time before August, where he's at around 40%.

Smoak usually strikes out about a third of the time. Thus far in August it's up over 50%.

Some time selling sea shells may not be a bad idea for these two.

Not sure if someone posted this but it's well worth the watch:

https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/765662123791904768

"Tresh had 15 HRs, all as a shortstop, when Tony Kubek finished his military service in mid-August and returned to the lineup. Tresh went to LF at that point, and hit the other 5."

Magpie, was this from memory or did you have to look it up? I was feeling pretty good about remembering Tresh playing short and smacking a few HR's, but I had to look up the other info.

sweet, sweet bottom of the order production.

Carrera and Barney with back-to -back RBI doubles 3-0 Jays.

Buck Martinez:

"Every year, when you look at the playoff teams, their Starting Pitchers lead the league in Wins. That's how you make the playoffs."

While I agree that a pitcher's win count can be deceiving, it's not a completely meaningless stat. What it tells you is that a pitcher was able to pitch well enough to stay in for 6 innings and that he allowed fewer runs than his team scored. Obviously, there are some 10-9 wins in there and some 1-0 losses. But surely, those are outliers. I find it interesting to look at pitcher's splits on BBref. Almost always the difference in their performance in wins versus losses is remarkable.

Also - good to see Upton getting on base.

Buck Martinez:

"D D Gregarious"

See, now if only Buck's pitchers led the league in wins when he managed, the Jays would have made the playoffs!

"What it tells you is that a pitcher was able to pitch well enough to stay in for 6 innings and that he allowed fewer runs than his team scored."

There are much better stats to show that, though.

I wasn't watching but I was just told that Donaldson and Gibbons had some beef in the dugout. She said they were nose to nose.

Any word what was going on?

you can see it here if you're on twitter: https://twitter.com/BadNewsJays/status/765973040958148608

Upton goes deep! His Signature Blue Jay Moment™!

Marcus Di Pede @marcusdipede
Gibby & JD high fived in the dugout. All is good again. #BlueJays

welcome to the blue jays, melvin!

man that rf porch in NY is something else.

Upton hitting. Barney hitting. Release the kraken!

Hopefully this hitting is here to stay. I can't help think that Estrada and Happ are going to start regressing in the direction of their FIPs, if only slightly. (Yeah yeah, I know. Spin rate. GIDPs.)

Gameday shows that every Jays hitter has struck out at least once today (15 total). I wonder how many times that has happened to them this season.

Estrada maybe because it clearly seems he's ailing, but Happ has averaged a 2 FIP on the seven starts previous to this game. And this game has been just fine with 6 hits and a walk to 9 Ks. He gave up 3 HRs sure, but he's never been terribly homer prone in his career. Anyway I'd be pretty happy if he went 7 with 3 ER and flirted with double digit Ks every start.

Also I wouldn't make any conclusions on hitting being back after feasting on their depleted bullpen and a guy they wish they didn't have to pay in CC. They're still striking a ton out and will have issues being consistent til Jose is back.

I'd be pretty happy if he went 7 with 3 ER

That's a 3.86 ERA (which is even higher than his current FIP).

Also I wouldn't make any conclusions on hitting being back

Not sure who did that. I said "hopefully".

Wouldn't it be more remarkable if there were not a difference between their performance between wins and losses?

Specifically, it is unremarkable if a tall person weighs more than a person a half a foot shorter, but it is remarkable the other way around.

7 IP and 3 ER is still very good, especially when it came with a 1 whip and 9 Ks. He's not going to give up 3 solo shots every game and when he doesn't then the ERA looks even better.

Although Benoit's juggling act looks to have caught up with him.

7 IP and 3 ER is still very good

And I'm just doing the math. That's an ERA of 3.86 in a league with an ERA of 4.21. Call it very good if you want.

15 K's for the Yankees pitchers today, including 12 from Sabathia.

The offense has looked better the past two days, but the strike outs are still an issue.

Upton 2-3 with a HR, single, and a walk. Really want to see his bat get going the rest of the way.

Anyone watching? Why did Saunders pinch-hit for Donaldson?

Apparently Donaldson got jammed on a pitch earlier

Upton 2-3 with a HR, single, and a walk. Really want to see his bat get going the rest of the way.

Smoak is probably wondering if he's ever going to start again, especially when Pillar and Bautista return. I'm sure Gibbons is rooting for Upton to hit well enough to warrant near-regular playing time, DH'ing Bautista and Saunders more and more and tightening up the defense.

ERA isn't everything. It's not very likely that Happ will give up 3 HR in a game again. If you're striking out over a batter and inning and limited walks/hits you'll do just fine.

On other matters, the post game discussion on the dustup was funny.

Donaldson: "I was coming back to dugout, I hit my bat against the thing and Gibby asked what cologne I was wearing."

Gibbons: "Told him after first AB, get a new bat that's not working. He took same one up second time, didn't work."

Upton Jr.'s last two games:

4/7, HR, 2 BB, 3 R, 3 RBI (albeit with 2 K's)

That should give him a boost of confidence.

Chances are Lake would have had a hit against CC. It's great that it doesn't matter.

I know that's Saunders has great numbers against lefties, but if he's in a slump, I think it makes sense to rest him.

I don't think he's had very good career numbers against Sabathia so that's why he was sat out. Upton, on the other hand, has great numbers against C.C.

Fangraphs had an interesting article on Saunders today.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-saunders-has-helped-or-killed-the-blue-jays/

Basically he's been historically unclutch. (like the worst since numbers have started being calculated back in 1974) I sort of noticed this in a way when I kept being surprised how good his numbers are but I didn't recall him winning us many games. I had no idea the numbers were like that though. Very weird.

I don't feel strikeouts are completely negative. A 9 pitch AB that ends in a strikeout is a good AB in my book.
Watching a fastball, fouling out one and failing to check a swing on a breaking ball is bad.
Hitting into a double play is worse than striking out.

I don't mind the high number of strikeouts if the opposing starter is gone after 5 innings.
Well, unless the other team has a killer bullpen.

I for one am glad to see the Jays leave New York just due to the sound effects. The super annoying sound when a Yankee pitcher records a strike out (do-do-do-da - except like nails on chalk board pitch) and when a Yankee hits a home run (like a sci-fi air raid siren). And since there were a fair number of those across these games I got to hit that a lot.

It is probably a clever thing to annoy the opponents, but it also annoys this opponents' fan as well.

Something I noticed in yesterday's game: in the eighth inning, the Yankees had two on, two out, and a left-handed batter coming up with a right-handed pitcher (Benoit) on the mound. This time last year, this would have been a job for Brett Cecil. This year, Gibbons went to Osuna instead. I don't blame him, given Cecil's struggles in April - I just was noticing how far Cecil's stock had fallen in the meantime.

I for one am glad to see the Jays leave New York just due to the sound effects.

This. I dislike this even more than the Hooked On A Feeling eighth inning break at the Rogers Centre. There's also an accompanying whirr sound, if you listen closely - that's Joe DiMaggio spinning in his grave.

Fangraphs had an interesting article on Saunders today.

Baseball Reference shows Saunders as having a much lower OPS and higher strikeout rate against power pitchers. Which suggests that he might not be able to catch up to the fastest of major league fastballs. This might be the price he is paying for hitting left-handed pitching so well.

Saunders has 60 Runs and 49 RBIs. That does suggest his hitting is not clutch, but that doesn't mean his production is useless.

Osuna for the 4 out save was a good move. He had not pitched in several days and there is a day off today.

With the bullpen well rested, it would be a good time to bring on Feldman early for Liriano on Friday.

One more thing.  The Upton Jr. home run was not a Yankee stadium special.  It leaves the RC easily.  He didn't particularly square it up but he still had enough juice for that.  Now I'd really like to see him drive a 95 mph fastball to centerfield.  A line drive single would be fine, thank you. 

I'm not sure about that Mike. When I overlay Skydome (... "Rogers Centre") on Upton's home run, it looks like it lands at the base of the wall.

I'm pretty useless with the overlays but it looks to me like the last dot is over the fence.  I had no idea that it was almost 365 feet to that part of right field at the RC.  I guess it was a little farther over towards right-centre than I thought. 

Cecil pitched Friday, Saturday, and Monday, so with Osuna not having pitched in 3 days and the off day today Gibbons was comfortable getting as many outs as he needed from Osuna in the 8th, there was no need to get Cecil warm. I do agree that Cecil has lost some of Gibby's trust, but John is very quick to change that if he sees even one or two quality outing that he likes. I think many of us are skeptical of Benoit and would like to see him a little lower on the totem pole, but it will probably take a big blow up for that to happen. I thought Ryan Tepera's stuff looked fantastic this series, and I'm not convinced Benoit is any better than him.

I believe the blue dot is where it landed, and the green dot is the "true distance" -- where it would have landed if the seats weren't in the way. In retrospect, it either hits the wall, or barely clears it in Toronto.

It's not that SkyDome is particularly deep there, but Yankee Stadium is incredibly shallow.

"....I thought Ryan Tepera's stuff looked fantastic this series...."

I haven't been able to see Tepera pitch recently, but there are indications that he might be pulling ahead of the other Buffalo relievers and might have won a longer-lasting spot in the Toronto bullpen.  I've seen tweets from a few baseball analysts and/or writers who have been impressed by Tepera lately, and he seems to be improved over last season.  Other relievers have fallen by the wayside this year, and Tepera still has a spot.  It's also significant, I think, that he was the main closer in the Buffalo bullpen this season and did very well in that role, collecting 17 saves, far ahead of anyone else.

Tepera has suffered demotions this season by dint of his option status, which allowed him to be shuffled up and down to Buffalo all year.  (He's been six times optioned this year, someone said, although I haven't checked.) But I think he's probably ahead of Schultz and Barnes at this point, although both will probably rejoin the Jays when rosters expand next month. I agree that Barnes has looked very good too, but Tepera has a lot more experience at higher levels of the Jays system, including the majors.  He may have finally won a major-league job.  But of course, if the Jays have an extra-innings game and need a fresh arm, he is still the only one with options in the bullpen, so he'll have to go back to Buffalo again.

With the bullpen well rested, it would be a good time to bring on Feldman early for Liriano on Friday.

It's an excellent idea and a great use of a 13 man pitching staff. I think it's been said before, but Liriano is a stud the first two times through the batting order but quickly turns into a pumpkin after that. His opponent slash lines:
1st time through batting order: .229 / .324 / .335
2nd time through batting order: .266 / .350 / .446
3rd time through batting order: .336 / .465 / .656

It would be a very novel approach to have Feldman replace Liriano after ~18 batters faced, regardless of the situation. This Jays team might be bold enough to try it and there will enough rested arms available if Feldman gets in trouble.

I think gibbons has been slowly but surely trying to ease cecil back to his regular role and build his confidence every step of the way.

James G ‏@james_in_to

If the Jays go 22-19, the Red Sox or Orioles would have to go 26-18 to pass them.

That was after yesterday's Jays win.  Rare that it's nice to be the team with more games played, but it's a good spot to be if you've won them all so far.

In other news, the Jays have fired their scouting director.

David Laurilia interviews Max Pentecost.

Tough one-run loss for the Red Sox today.  I wonder how it fits into Magpie's classification system. You want something that captures both the good late inning work by the offence combined with the even greater bullpen implosion (which ordinarily would not have led to a one-run loss).  Hmm.

I wonder how it fits into Magpie's classification system.

Category 2, of course! (That's Late Runs to Create the Game Result - Late Runs Allowed for a Loss, Late Runs Scored for a Win.) Anytime it happens in the final three innings.

The full list of categories!

Category 1 - Walkoffs.
Category 2 - Late Runs to Create the One-Run Decision (something happens over the final three innings to give a team a one-run victory/loss - someone scores to break up a tie, or overcome/blow a lead.)
Category 3 - Late Runs to Create the One-Run Final Score (i.e., a 5-1 game and someone scores/allows three runs in the eighth inning to create a one-run final score.)
Category 4 - Nothing Happened. A one-run game before the seventh and no scoring in the final three.

There's nothing very logical about the numbering of the categories - I was just identifying them in sequence as I encountered them in game logs. And I wouldn't mind shorter, snappier names for #2 & #3...

121gms in - the 3/4 mark of the season:



Lineup (WAR = fwar + bwar per 650pa)

3B Donaldson 536pa, .308babip, 154wrc+, 7.6war
2B Travis 281pa, .347babip, 114wrc+, 5.7war
SS Tulowitzki 383pa, .271babip, 110wrc+, 4.0war
1B En'cion 520pa, .278babip, 140wrc+, 3.9war
CF Pillar 443pa, .298babip, 78wrc+, 3.9war
LF Saunders 453pa, .337babip, 125wrc+, 2.9war
C Martin 380pa, .314babip, 99wrc+, 2.2war
RF Upton 440pa, .321babip, 90wrc+, 2.1war
DH Bautista 355pa, .229babip, 113wrc+, 0.8war

UT Smoak 304pa, .299babip, 92wrc+, 0.0war
OF Carrera 231pa, .311babip, 93wrc+, 2.0war
IF Barney 259pa, .301babip, 77wrc+, 3.3war
C Thole 120pa, .197babip, 27wrc+, -3.5war

UT Colabello 32pa, .100babip, -39wrc+, -10.2war
OF Ceciliani 28pa, .231babip, -5wrc+, -11.6war
IF Goins 173pa, .208babip, 30wrc+, -2.4war
C Kratz 87pa, .133babip, -41wrc+, -7.9war



SP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 32gs)

SP Sanchez 23gs, 6.6ip/gs, 66era-, 76fip-, 83xfip-, 5.8war
SP Happ 24gs, 6.3ip/gs, 71era-, 90fip-, 93xfip-, 4.8war
SP Estrada 21gs, 6.3ip/gs, 75era-, 96fip-, 106xfip-, 4.3war
SP Stroman 24gs, 6.4ip/gs, 108era-, 89fip-, 80xfip-, 2.6war
SP Dickey 25gs, 5.9ip/gs, 105era-, 121fip-, 111xfip-, 1.0war
(SP Liriano 23gs, 5.5ip/gs, 137era-, 131fip-, 110xfip-, -0.8war)

RP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 65ip)

RP Osuna 53gms, 53.2ip, 43era-, 56fip-, 81xfip-, 2.4war
RP Biagini 43gms, 48.1ip, 48era-, 52fip-, 84xfip-, 1.4war
RP Grilli 49gms, 43.2ip, 75era-, 81fip-, 86xfip-, 1.0war
RP Feldman 27gms, 45.2ip, 88era-, 77fip-, 79xfip-, 0.7war
RP Tepera 9gms, 9.1ip, 68era-, 82fip-, 105xfip-, 0.7war
RP Cecil 36gms, 25.2ip, 106era-, 92fip-, 81xfip-, 0.4war
RP Benoit 35gms, 32.1ip, 96era-, 111fip-, 115xfip-, 0.1war

On sound effects I think it is time to retire the Jays fog horn. Never liked it, seemed like a cost savings measure versus fireworks...

Let the crowd noise speak for itself.

Good article from Fangraphs about how awful the big contracts of last year have turned out to be.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-so-far-disastrous-crop-of-2016-free-agents/

Good shout out to the Jays for their wise spending as well. It does make me think of the three Jays about to hit FA. I know we all think EE is the one to keep but I'm not so sure we can accurately predict that. At this point I'd feel more comfy with a short term contract for Bautista rather than go into a 5/130 or more bidding war for EE. The FA class for this year is weak enough that someone is going to overspend for him. But I have no idea going forward who will be the better bat.

Category 3 could be called "Rallies Fall Short" or "Almost Rallies".

I am curious about the relationships on average between margin after 6 innings and final margins. So, home team +5 or more after 6 innings might break down in terms of final margin (say): 50% home +5 or more, 25% home+4, 15% home+3,5% home+2, 3% home +1, 1% road+1, 1% road+2 or more. There could be a nice chart covering 11 game states after 6 innings.

Walkoffs, Rallies, Almost Rallies, and Nothing. That'll do!

This FO seems to value years more than AAV (which is an approach I agree with), so I think Edwin has already priced himself out of their range, while Bautista's injury riddled/mediocre season may have priced himself right into their plans. It really depends on what the market is like for Jose. He's not going to cash out like he expected, but will any team give him three or more years + lose a draft pick at the same time when he'll be 36 coming off two separate injuries and a down season? Cespedes was having trouble finding a deal last off-season and he was much younger, better defensively, and had no compensation attached to him.

I think two years for Bautista, even with a higher AAV, would be the way to go if he's open to it. That way he'd be signed through age 37, and even if he does decline, the years would be short enough to where it wouldn't be a huge burden. His market will be really interesting to watch. With Encarnacion, he looks poised to get a big deal from someone, and my guess is it won't be with the Jays, so I'm going to enjoy watching him for the rest of the season.

I've said it before, but I think extending Donaldson trumps, in importance, pursuing Encarnacion, Bautista and Saunders.

And Baltimore solves Musgrove.  11 hits, 3 HR, 2K, 8 ER

Adrian Beltre is a year and a half older than Bautista and took a 2/36 extension with Texas. He's been significantly more durable than Bautista since 2012. I'm sure there's a discount built in there because Beltre was comfortable where he was and wasn't a FA, but I think that's the contract the front office is going to be pointing to when Bautista and his agent show up asking for a large 4 year deal. 3/54-60 could be their range.

Adrian Beltre's performance is more relevant to a possible Josh Donaldson extension.

Beltre has been better and more durable than Bautista from age 32-35. There is a world of difference between a fine-fielding third baseman and a right-fielder who should have been a DH a year or two ago.

I was curious about Donaldson's standing among the great third basemen.  I ran a Play Index for third basemen with WAR greater than 20 between ages 27 and 30.  Donaldson stands third (as of today) behind Boggs and Schmidt.  Most of the players on the list are Hall of Famers.  There is one good comp though that provides a cautionary tale- Ken Boyer.  Boyer was a very similar hitter and also a Gold Glove fielder.  Boyer had 3 fine years, including an MVP season at age 33, and then faded quickly.  On the other hand, betting on Donaldson's durability seems to me to be a reasonable thing subjectively. 

Goins up, Ceciliani down.  Maybe that means Donaldson needs more time on the bench or DHing because of the thumb. 

If Bautista continues to decline at his current rate, and can't play in the outfield, why would anyone want him back on anything more than a QO? This year, the team has had a much better record when he doesn't play (26-15, .634) than when he does (43-37, .538) so despite the sample size, it's very difficult to advance the argument that he's even a great clubhouse presence or a team leader.

This is Donaldson's team now. The money should be spent as part of locking him up, and letting someone like Pompey take over in the field, as Pompey is likely to provide more overall value at a fraction of the cost.

I don't really see how a contract that guarantees $ to Bautista through 2019 would have an effect on the Jays' ability to retain Donaldson, who is under control anyway through 2018 (his age 32 season), long-term.

It's not like they're going to need to spend real $ on pitching for 2017. Happ, Estrada, Liriano, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Biagini, and Grilli is a pretty solid base to build a pitching staff upon.

Tulo and Donaldson out of the lineup tonight. Goins and Barney in.

Ouch throw in the towel for Liriano I guess. I figured Donaldson could miss a day, wonder what is up with Tulo.

Apparently Tulo tweaked his calf and could play but Gibbons decided to give him the day off. Saunders bats second behind Travis.

From Davidi's tweets it sounds like both are relatively fine and the team is using a day game Wednesday and off day Thursday to give Donaldson and Tulowitzki a nice 72 hour rest while they're a bit banged up. I would have demoted Tepera and kept Ceciliani around, though, so that my team wasn't playing without a bench tonight. I hope we don't see Russell Martin playing out of position.

Liriano is a worm killer so Goins' glove better be ready to go.

Maybe it's a bit early to anoint Travis as the next Roberto Alomar...