From ESPN:

Highest wRC+ 2nd Basemen since 1930

1. Joe Morgan 1976 184

2. Joe Morgan 1975 176

3. Jose Altuve 2016 169

The Blue Jays have already seen all those pitchers 3 days ago. The Astros missed Liriano and Sanchez. I hope that works out well.

And by 3 days ago, I meant last week.

hopefully mcguire and ramirez turn into players in a few years.

Odoest moment of the game last night. With Cecilani on 2nd and nobody out, the Jays down 2 and Travis at the plate, Hinch had the corners in and charging. Travis calmly slapped the ball between 1st and second for a single. No word on whether he sent chocolates to the opposing dugout.

For fun I checked wRC+ for Jays 2B.
#1: Devon Travis 128
#2: Roberto Alomar 125
#3: Frank Menechino 118
#4: Joe Inglett 104
#5: Mark DeRosa 101

Of those top 5, only Alomar has 150+ games played

Negatives to Jorge Velandia, Luis Figueroa, Domingo Ramos

By fWAR you get
1) Roberto Alomar 20.4
2) Aaron Hill 12.2
3) Damaso Garcia 8.7
4) Orlando Hudson 8.3
5) Manuel Lee 5.5
6) Devon Travis 4.7
Everyone else is sub 2.5

Boy the Jays haven't had a lot at 2B over the years. 3B has 9 over 5 WAR, SS has 7 (just one over 10, Tony Fernandez at 35.1) Catcher is the weakest with just 4 over 5 WAR (Whitt 21.8, Zaun 7.1, Fletcher 6.5, Border 5.4) Martin is 6th behind Buck Martinez.

With the O's facing Bumgarner and Cueto over the next two games, this weekend could be a good opportunity for the Jays to reclaim first place (and hopefully stay there the rest of the way).

Two starts in, Liriano's ERA, FIP, and xFIP in Toronto are almost identical to those he posted in Pittsburgh. His walk rate is better, though. I thought he looked OK much of the time last night. The two walks in the third inning were unfortunate, though, as was the breaking ball that Hernandez hit for a HR. His control and command seemed to waver at times.

I thought Liriano looked bad last night.  The Astros hit a lot of balls hard that were caught, and could easily have blown the game open early. 

That's two vintage Martin throws in a row.  Good news.

Looks like the Jays will have to beat the Astro's and the home plate ump today.

Two Yankee rookies hit home runs back-to-back in their first major league at bats. I wonder if that ever happened before?

I look at Liriano through the lens of, "can this pitcher help the team?" (including by providing innings to keep the rest of the rotation healthy and productive). I think the jury is still out on that one. On the positive side, his velocity remains decent and he has been able to execute all of his pitches adequately at times. On the negative side, his control/command and his pitch execution have been inconsistent (whether because of lack of focus, or some other issue). He might be done, or he might still have some utility as a back-end starter - maybe a 4.25 - 4.50 ERA guy. After Grilli and Benoit, you can't blame the Jays for trying.

I think you can blame management if they decide to to pick up one of the worst SP in baseball this year to stick in a contending rotation, and he continues to be awful.

I wanted the Jays to acquire Hill (who admittedly has yet to make a start for LA). Liriano is a gamble, in that the Jays are in a tough pennant race and can't afford to give away games just to see what Liriano has left. But if he pitches adequately and the Jays end up making the playoffs, the front office will look good for having added both depth and prospects at the deadline.

the problem with this team at the moment is there are too many automatic outs in the lineup. Upton, Justin Smoak, Ceciliani to name names. Saunders too but I sort of expect him to bounce back.

Worst Jays this year:

1.Upton 49pa, -0.7 fwar
2.Goins 173pa, -0.7
3.Thole 117pa, -0.5

So do you pull Sanchez here after 6 with 82 pitches thrown? I would as the Jays want to conserve innings for him and there isn't a need to push it here I think.

Now that makes me happy.  There was the perfect time for the bunt and it was perfectly executed.

please let that be the powder keg and not just a cherry bomb.

Nothing better than an Earl Weaver special.  Very satisfying inning.

Articles and commenters are talking about some kind of offensive breakout for this team. I don't see it.

It's really hard to win much, or score much, with three .100 class hitters (Smoak, Saunders since July, Upton since arrival) and sometimes 4 (Ceciliani, much as I like him). Barney has also gone cold, though that has become a secondary problem thanks to Tulo and Travis.

Given Saunders' injury history, I'm starting to wonder if a 2017 qualifying offer is a good idea. And whether the front office might actually have had the right idea with the Jay Bruce trade.

we should pick up papelbon.

a healthy lineup doesn't have both smoak and upton in the lineup.

and bruce is worse than saunders, more expensive, and slumping even worse and for longer.

My guess is that the club might actually resign Bautista and Encarnancion and let Saunders hit FA. I don't think the new front office believes in him much, perhaps due to his health issues and now crappy defensive skills. I doubt they want to spend money on him, and I don't want to either frankly. Their lack of faith is evidenced by their willingness to trade him for Bruce.

Bautista might be a bit cheaper now in what is a bit of a lost season. He's getting old obviously, but I think he still has a fair bit of juice left in him. Encarnacion will cost a bit, but both might be willing to give small hometown discounts to stay here, and might actually be the best deals on the market.

That bunt was perfectly done at the perfect moment.

these are my favorite starts - when the SP is in trouble early but then settles down and somehow gets thru 7ip on a low pitch count. impressive.

Jason Grilli is my fave reliever by far right now.  Love watching how pumped up he gets. 

And then he strikes out the side .... been a while since we had a non-closer who had a legit shot at doing that regularly.

And then it's ice cold Osuna.  Best closer since the terminator?

Saunders QO? Zero chance that happens.

Papelbon Ugly? Why? I hope you are not serious.

Earlier I was thinking maybe he'd be worth getting but with 3.6 BB/9 (his highest since 2010) and 8 K/9 (tied for lowest in his career) a 95 ERA+ and how he demands to close I'd not bother. 3 blown saves vs 19 saves and 1 hold (which was a near blown save). Nah, he'd be #3 at best here in the pen, maybe lower.

I doubt they want to spend money on him, and I don't want to either frankly. Their lack of faith is evidenced by their willingness to trade him for Bruce.

I don't think this is the case at all. If you look at some of the moves that have been made, Upton, Liriano, there's that extra year of control at reasonable costs. I don't remember the exact dollars, but Bruce had another year at a reasonable amount for this year or past production. I think the moves and the reason for Bruce was to hedge bets for Encarnacion/Bautista departures at reasonable prices. Far more reasonable in terms of $$$ or years than would be possible with free agents.
I think the goal has been to extend the window, but for a year at a time, and then rebuild. That may be an option now with Bautista, but not so much Encarnacion.

I don't think a QO would be the end of the world, but I'd rather a 1+1 with bonuses for health. I think he'll do better with the lack of options.

Saunders QO? Zero chance that happens.

It would probably be in the range of $15 or $16 million, right?

QO is presently estimated to be 16.7 million

Ah yes, the 'no chance he gets a QO' debate.  How many times do we have this round here?

But of course he will.  Doesn't matter if you don't like the economics of it PeterG.

They likely traded Saunders for Bruce because of the extra year of control and they expected a bounce back offensively from Bruce (which happened but his defense is so awful that it negates a lot of it). I believe it was Nightengale who said that the Reds were eating up $8M off Bruce's 2016 salary, so the Jays would have gotten him cheaply this season and the option for next season, which was likely a big reason for the deal. No one expected Saunders to 1) stay this healthy, and 2) hit for this much power. The team that expects him to continue to hit like this next season will probably be disappointed, but whether the Jays should give him the QO depends on how he finishes the season. It was a lock a month ago. Another hot streak from now until October could change things again.

The offense being inconsistent is definitely a concern, but right now, they don't have Bautista who is a big part of the offense (typically) and even losing Pillar hurts since Upton's bat has been awful since he came over. When Bautista gets back, the Jays will need to bite the bullet and DH him permanently until the end of the season. They can't afford another "fluke injury" to the man who thinks he can defy aging. They really need Upton to bounce back though, because Carrera isn't the answer in RF either.

As unappealing as some of the available OF's might look (Gomez, etc), it might be worth a shot to get one at this point. Although, Gomez for the entire season has been as bad as Upton post-trade, so there's that.

What matter is whether Shapiro like the economics of it and I would bet anything that he won't. I think it borders upon ridiculous to suggest Saunders will get a QO.

Some people thought Rasmus would get one 2 years ago when it was 15 mil. What a disaster that would have been.

Well, if the QO is $16 mil roughly then it requires that the player be worth 2 wins, the economics of baseball are nuts aren't they? Saunders has cracked that 3 times in his career (this year, 2014, and 2012). I figure he is worth the risk of a QO but not a 3 year+ deal. I could see some desperate team giving him that.

Bautista will be interesting to see what offers he gets and what he goes for. $60 for 3 I could imagine but sure wouldn't go for 5 at $100+ like he could've had pre-season.

Encarnacion is a tough one. $25 per for 3 he should get without much trouble. But how much more will he get? Will someone give a 5 year deal to a DH at $30 per? No way the Jays do.

If all 3 are lost Upton, Pompey and a mystery player will take over in RF/LF/DH respectively (in house Colabello or Tellez would be the favorites).

Montero appears to be a better hitter than Colabello as there is a drastic difference in their AAA performance. I am not sure Cola even stays on the 40 man. Tellez will almost certainly start in Buffalo next season.

To explain my view on the Saunders situation a little further, the QO's will be given before FA's sign in the off season. The budget is not unlimited. The economics of it suggest that if Saunders gets a QO and accepts it (and there is a good chance he would), that is an increase from 2.9 to 16.7. If that happens, there is then no chance that EE could return unless one is hoping for an unrealistic budget increase. If there is even a 10% chance of bringing back EE, you don't qualify Saunders.

The idiocy of mlb tonight- no jays mentioned in recap of cy candidates
 at closer save totals and mention Duffy and then talking about how when there's no clear front-runner weird things happen

The sandwich pick (and allotted spending amount) a team gains via the QO is valuable, but it's not quite the same as the old days when a team could gain a relatively high first round draft pick as compensation for the loss of a Type A free agent.

As a few players accepted QO's last year, expect more of that in 2016. Teams will think twice before giving QO's this time around. If there is a chance of it backfiring, teams will likely avoid it. Yes, the sandwich pick has value but not at the possible expense of totaling screwing a budget.

If Saunders finishes with a +3 WAR season and 25-30 HR, a QO seems likely, especially given the thin free agent market.

Britton is  the only serious closer candidate for the Cy Award at this point.
ESPN has a Cy Young predictor--which uses stats--and Happ has been the leader for a while on that.

It's still way too early. Someone can have one bad game and fall off the standing.

In 2014 there were 12 QO and they were all rejected--although some should have  been accepted.
In 2015 there were 20 and 4 were accepted, if you count Estrada who re-signed quickly.

Wieters should not have been a surprise.
Brett Anderson and Colby Rasmus were gamble. The Astros must have felt they had the money to spare.

I would be delighted if Saunders got a QO, rejected it and signed elsewhere, thus giving the Jays a compensation pick.
However, everything concerning Shapiro's previous MO suggests he would not take that risk unless certain the QO would be rejected. If Saunders has a monster finish, that might change the thinking but as it stands now I see no way he gets it.

Saunders' future is as a DH as he is an absolutely horrible defender. As a DH, he would be average and maybe worth 8-10 mil at best. IF his play of the past 2 weeks continues, even that will be generous.

Top DH contracts have been in the 17-18 mil range which suggests that many estimates for EE are probably out of line unless it is viewed that he can survive without injury as a 1b. That said, I think EE has double (or more) the value of Saunders all things considered. WAR is a useful stat to which I pay attention, but something about it is flawed (as is the case win any stat, none of which are perfect) in the Saunders rating.

PeterG, given that Melky Cabrera received 3/$42m after his age-30 2.5 WAR (129 wRC+ with poor defence) season a couple of years ago, I would expect Saunders to garner at least that much in a weak FA market this off-season, assuming he maintains his current wRC+ of 131 or thereabouts.

Cabrera's defense is much better than that of Saunders. C'mon nobody using common sense would take Saunders over Cabrera whatever the WAR. In this case, it over accounts for HR. but under accounts for defense and base running and does not account at all for baseball IQ and injury risk. In this particular case WAR does not accurately reflect how poor an all round player that Saunders is or the risk that he carries.Damn...give me Cabrera for Saunders...all day every day. I have no more to say on this subject unless this debate emerges another day.

I'm confused. Fangraphs has Cabrera as comparably below-average defensively to Saunders. BRef's dWAR has Cabrera as significantly worse defensively than Saunders (for several years now). Saunders walks more and has better power than Cabrera, and has no PED history that we know of. Unless all these statistical measures are missing something obvious to most observers (I don't see it), Saunders looks to be at least as good a player as Melky -- and probably better.

Watching Melky run in left reminded me of watching myself running, all stiff and awkward and slow.

Osuna was outstanding for the Jays in his rookie season. This year, he has:

- Increased his K rate
- Decreased his BB rate
- Allowed fewer HR/9 IP
- Stranded a higher percentage of runners on base

It will be interesting to see what the Jays do with him next year.

Did a quick count - games vs sub-.500 opponents remaining

Boston 20
Toronto 16
Baltimore 9.

On the other hand - road games remaining

Baltimore 21
Toronto 25
Boston 30

despite his miscue tonight it seems to me Saunders is much more comfortable in right than left.

I think it is obvious that all 3 of Saunders, EE, and Batista should get a QO absent some sort of injury that puts next year at risk. It is debatable if Saunders is worth $16M/1 year, but 1 year $16M never breaks the bank, it is the multi-year deals that do, and the FA market is weak next year. The value of the comp pick is still fairly valuable.

while happ has been awesome his main claim to Cy status is his win total, which has rightly become less than fashionable recently.

Duffy has been good but doesn't have the innings.

The top 3 contenders imo are Sanchez, Quintana, and Hamels - the only 3 with both the ERA and IP to justify it imo.

then again Happ could move up into that group pretty soon too, even if he's a tick behind in both categories right now.

I think the odds are very low Saunders would accept a QO. Barring some unexpected collapse or injury in the second half, I would feel comfortable offering him one and think he'd be quite likely to reject it.

Saunders went for the out instead of focusing on the run which meant nothing.
I don't see the huge deal.

Sanchez will have to miss a start or two.
There's no way you win a Cy Young and have limited innings at the same time.

Keuschel won last year with worse ERA and fewer Ks than Price because he got to 20 wins.
Klubber was also the Win leader in 2014. Scherzer was a no contest, he won 21.

You can say the win total is less fashionable, but the AL Cy Young keeps going to the pitcher with the most win.
Nobody gets it with 15 wins.

Arguably, Happ is hurt by the 6 man rotation which limits his innings.
That's on Sanchez, not on Happ.

Saunders bats left and there's always teams looking to add a power left bat.
He'll be 30 next year, that doesn't spell automatic decline.

Rasmus, who just had ear surgery, has never been a model of consistency.

Dexter Fowler decline his QO and re-signed with the Cubs for considerably less.
Alex Gordon re-signed with the Royals for a crazy amount.
Jason Heyward is also collecting crazy  money.

I think you make the 3 QOs and the players are not likely to accept, Saunders because he is too young to sign year to year.  EE and Bautista because that's likely their last chance for a big contract.
And if they accept, you have them for one year. It's not catastrophic.

"You can say the win total is less fashionable, but the AL Cy Young keeps going to the pitcher with the most win.
Nobody gets it with 15 wins."

King Felix was voted the AL Cy Young with 13 W's a few years back.

Dominant peripheral stats mean the most. Not surprisingly, pitchers with dominant run prevention, IP, K's etc usually do end up with a bunch of wins, but not always. Most voters have moved on from the days of using W's as the primary criteria.

For Happ it all depends if its first half Happ or the guy we've seen the last two months and at the end of last season. First guy is just a solid 3/4 innings eater with pretty high peripherals. Second guy has the second best 2/4 Seamer fastball combo behind Arietta and has a sub 2 ERA and a 2 FIP and 8K/game. If this guy we've seen lately keeps showing up he'll probably win the CY going away. In his last seven starts he's dropped his season FIP from 4.5 to 3.75. If he can repeat that his FIP for the season will drop to the 3.2-3.4 range and with his wins/Ks will be the fav to win it.

Of course that is a pretty big if. But it does show how dominant Happ is with using his 4 seamer more and the approach he's taken in the second half of the last two years. The numbers he's gotten then are top 5-10 in all of baseball among starters.

Greinke in 2009 and Hernandez in 2010, but it looks like this trend has been reversed.
These guys were pitching on terribly bad teams. The mariners were 61-101.
It would make no sense to give the Cy Young to a 15 game winner on a division champion even if he's dominating in ERA and strikeouts. A real Cy Young winner would just throw enough shutouts to win more than half his starts.

Peter you make a great argument but arrive at the wrong conclusion. First, Saunders and Cabrera cannot be compared directly since Melky will not be a FA this year but Melky Cabrera's rejection of the QO and the successful acquisition of a draft pick for his signing makes the QO to Michael Saunders a slam dunk. Additionally, Saunders stats this season compare quite favourably with Melky's 2014. A cleanup hitter (Saunders) on a top team (Jays) will sell tickets in some major league market this off season. Count on it.

I agree John N. Even in the good days we could not get both a good 2B and SS.
Catcher too seems hard to acquire for the Jays.

Somehow IMO we need to bulk up the offense with big producers at 1B and DH when we have an offense shortage at 2B or SS and C. So a L Overbay should only be here for a short while.

Manny and Ortiz were a super twosome for the Red Sox. The CF would have to cover for Manny's defense.

Roberto Osuna in an interview with Barry Davis before the game today: " If they ( the Jays ) want me in the rotation, I'll play there. If they want me to be a reliever, I'll do that. I'm here to play for the team, not myself."
I love the attitude of this young man.

Hinch has made some strange decisions this series.  That was a pointless challenge on the Encarnacion HBP. 

Yesterday's successful bunt seems to have given Saunders a big boost.  He looks a lot better now.  Good timing.

Hands up all those weary of Smoak and Upton. Man oh man they are a frustrating pair.

A further gripe: Buck and Pat can stop citing fielding percentage any time now. May be time for the mute button again.

Because I gripe so much, maybe some praise. I have just been popping in and out of this game, but all the close pitches that batters have complained about appear to have legitimately been strikes. Laz Diaz is the Buck & Pat of umpiring, so he's having an uncharacteristically good day it would seem.

I was thinking that there might be a silver lining to the injury to Pillar.  He should be fresh for the stretch run, after having few days off during the season.

I really, really, really don't get signing Smoak to 2 more years as that will almost certainly be money thrown into the toilet. Upton I can understand getting as he has great speed, solid defense, and a big problem with strikeouts. If the Jays hitting coaches (I'm including guys like Cito who is still a special adviser I think) can get him to adjust just a little he might be a big bargain (remember San Diego is paying most of his salary).

Smoak hits slightly worse than Upton in their careers, but Upton has speed plus can play RF/LF/CF while Smoak is a decent 1B only. Jays have $8.5 mil committed to Smoak but just $5 mil to Upton.

$20m slotted for smoak/upton/liriano next year will be especially annoying when they don't sign Jose.

what an amazing play by Martin to essentially snuff that rally.

Why Grilli instead of Biagini with a 6-2 lead (and Grilli having thrown yesterday)?  Not a fan of that decision.

The new-look Yankees have taken to imitating the Astros, batting their middle infielders in the heart of the order. With Beltran gone, Gregorious and Castro are the team leaders in slugging. 10 games left against them!

I wouldn't worry terribly much about contracts that go off the books at the end of next year. Also the FA market this offseason is awful, especially for starting pitchers. I think Liriano is a solid gamble at the rate he's at. Also unless Jose really want to do a two year contract I don't think the Jays want him. 3/50 is about the most I'd be willing to spend on him and that might be stretching it,

I'm not too worried about the Yankees hitters. If they score runs the Blue Jays pitchers aren't doing their jobs.
Now, I'm curious to see how many runs the home lineup can rack up against Yankees pitching, which isn't looking that impressive anymore.

Upton is rounding up into shape. Just need to get comfortable stealing with whoever's at the plate.

"....Hands up all those weary of Smoak and Upton...."

I still retain a bit of optimism for Upton.  For what it's worth, over the past 4 games, he's managed to reach base 5 times in his past 14 plate appearances, for an OBP of .357.  Tiny sample, baby steps, etc, but I haven't given up on him yet.

Smoak has had some good at bats as well, but not sure how well he's adjusting to less playing time, especially when Bautista returns. Still 4 million/year is nothing in today's game, that's paying him basically what a MR gets. If the team is going to make a mistake on a contract, better to make it on a small contract like that than some of the other stinkers that have happened lately.

it's not the money, but the guaranteed roster spot.

What guaranteed roster spot? His roster spot is as guaranteed as Morales' was. If he's awful they'll DFA him just like the Astros cut Gomez or Yankees A-Rod. Most likely he'll just be a platoon guy at 1B. The Jays are not resigning all three DH to bes they have coming off the books anyway.

He got 0.6 WAR last year and will probably get to 0.4 or so this year. Four million is paying him as a 1/2 WAR guy which is what he has been. It's not like he has zero upside either. i don't think it's the best contract, but on the scale of contracts that hurt your team Smoak's just doesn't.

"you can just dfa them" isn't much of an argument.

It's only 4 million however is. That's half a WAR. It's not going to affect things that much. He's a half win guy being paid the rate for half a win.

Great game in San Francisco.

It's nice to see Martin and Tulo getting hot, especially going into NY to face a bunch of lefties.

It was an unnecessary/bad signing but not a crippling contract. So you're both right. He'll play to what a $4M player is, and if an internal option presents itself (Tellez or someone else), then it will be easy to make the switch.

My guess is the front office still feels he has upside with the bat and were willing to sign him early for 2017 depth and to continue to cling to the hope that his skill set actually manifests into results for once. There are some good qualities, as he draws walks, is hitting the ball harder than he ever has before, has seen a 10% increase in FB% and 10% decrease in GB% from last season, etc. I just don't see why they would sign him so far in advance and for that much when waiting could have possibly lead to the same result and for cheaper. I'd be shocked if any team was going to give Smoak a better chance for playing time next season than the Jays.

Oh well, it is what it is.

Mlb.com is using "Canadian rakin". Are royalties being paid?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/195507934/troy-tulowitzki-leads-blue-jays-past-astros/?game_pk=448619

Wow, Schoop just hit a 3-run shot with 2 out in the ninth to give the O's the lead.

I think there's 9 Boston-Baltimore games left and a few next week. Those are fun.

dammit, snider, that is straight up theft.

Texas loses 7-0 to Detroit. What does that mean? It means that the team with the best record in the American League has allowed more runs than it has scored.

Clearly Texas knows how to win. Or something.

Divisional Standings and Run Differential

ALE: 304-280 (.521) +157 (+0.269)
NLC: 294-287 (.506) +72 (+0.124)
ALW: 293-295 (.498) -42 (-0.071)
ALC: 290-294 (.497) -56 (-0.096)
NLE: 289-298 (.492) -76 (-0.130)
NLW: 285-301 (.486) -55 (-0.094)

Would've been nice to have a 1.5 lead for the first time, but nope. No breathing room allowed.

Player A:

.289/.362/.528 2.3 WAR

Player B:

.270/.355/.509 2.1 WAR

Player A is Cespedes who is going to get a 100 million dollar contract and player B is Micheal Saunders who 1 person thinks won't get a qualifying offer? If the Jays will take on 13 million next year for a bad player (Liriano) for prospects, what makes you think they won't risk similar money on a really good player in Saunders?

Saunders
QO and than offer him 3/30 MM, interested in knowing his batting splits outside the Roger's bandbox.

The only Jay who deserves a 4/80 MM contract is EE and he is a DH, and when he is a 1 st baseman, he becomes a potential IR in waiting reducing his value.

Joey Bats, is a QO, at 36 years old. That is a commitment of 47 MM if all were resigned for next year.

interested in knowing his batting splits outside the Roger's bandbox

BB-Ref has your answers:

Home: 282/379/518, 897 OPS
Road: 258/329/500, 829 OPS

EE deserves 4/80 but he'll get more than that.

"Player A is Cespedes who is going to get a 100 million dollar contract and player B is Micheal Saunders who 1 person thinks won't get a qualifying offer? "

Yes, but Cespedes had a WAR of 10 the previous two years. Saunders had a WAR of 1.9 in that same period. Saunders had a career high of 2.3 WAR before this year. Cespedes had a career low of 2.4. I do think Saunders will get a QO unless he gets hurt or falls apart though.

what makes you think they won't risk similar money on a really good player in Saunders?

I also believe that Saunders will get a QO, but those non-Jay suitors that would consider giving him a multi-year contract have a legitimate reason to wonder what exactly his "true" level of ability is. His OPS+ is, interestingly, exactly where he left off two years ago in Seattle. But his 2016 has been a tale of two halves: 923/627 OPS. And of course his defense has been adventurous. And while he's been healthy this season, he's got the Bob Horner gene so things could go kablooey at any time.

If I'm his agent, I'm pushing for a multi-year deal if anyone bites. If I'm the Jays, I'm willing to roll the dice for a year that he's got a decent 2017 in him.

If I'm Saunders, I've got last year's Dexter Fowler fiasco in the back of my mind. I wouldn't want to turn down 17M and later take 10M when things have gone sideways.

Ah, first world problems.

The QO comes down to whether the team is willing to accept the consequences of the player accepting. In other words, if the Jays are fine with Saunders at 1/16 (or whatever the QO ends up being), then they'll give him the QO and either take the draft pick, take him back for a year, or work out something longer.

The QO comes down to whether the team is willing to accept the consequences

I agree with this. The QO is a big enough chunk of change that you better decide that you really want the player back at that amount. It was one thing to gamble, back in the day, offering arb to a player you didn't really want just to get the draft pick compensation (hello David Segui), but things are different now. Well, especially after 2015 where 3 players accepted a QO for the first time ever. Teams are seeming to attach more value to their draft picks than ever before and free agents hindered by an attached compensation requirement are going to feel that effect more and more (just watch for its ouster at the next bargaining session).

I don't know who will be offered a QO this off-season, but I expect somebody to accept it. Before 2015 that was unthinkable.

With regards to why Grilli instead of Biagini yesterday - well, we never really know who's nursing an injury/soreness etc. - but I also understand from another perspective - Biagini throws harder,hasn't given up a HR this season & can throw multiple innings - going into Yankee stadium & with an unreliable Dickey scheduled to start, I would want a rested Biagini.

I expect all 3 of EE/JB/MS to receive a QO & only Saunders may accept - even if all 3 accept, maintaining the status quo & extending the window for another year is just dandy.

I meant that I don't know who in all of MLB will receive and accept a QO (but that I think at least one player will). I don't know that any of the Jays will necessarily accept their QO. Would be. Could be. Who knows? Saunders would be my guess as most likely and Ecarnacion as least likely. With Bautista, pride may be an unscaleable hurdle -- how do you demand 5/150 and then accept 1/17 and save face?.

"how do you demand 5/150 and then accept 1/17 and save face?"

By being a 36 year old, having negative defensive value, with a 112 OPS+ while missing 50 games due to injuries in your walk year might be an answer.

That is why the team would only offer him a QO. I get that. I just don't know that Bautista would let his pride see things that way. He won't concede that he is a poor defender. He could argue that his numbers are down because he played hurt attempting to help the team. He could truly believe that a return to prior form is imminent. etc.

I could imagine his pride making him not accept at first, but then a long winter without a good offer and he might come back. Now would the current Jay's front office give him that deal at that point? Depends on internal options at that point.

Jose's agent might have a say in the matter, Part of his job is to convince his client to put pride aside. At least there is only a short window to make the decision.

IMO, the best case would be to give both Saunders and Jose a QO and the opportunity to sign elsewhere and concentrate on EE. If EE does get some ridiculous offer from another team, then the Jays could negotiate with Jose and Saunders. Ideally, neither would play the outfield as their primary position, especially Jose.

Invoices have started to be sent out for next year's season tickets. Looks to be about a 27% price increase.

That after the fans came out and led the league in attendance.

Will they still have the balls to cry "parameters" come FA time?

You guys really think that no team will give Jose a, say, 2/$40M contract? He's DEFINITELY worth that gamble. Even with the draft pick issue. I can think of one team that that has a hole in their DH slot next season.

That one team already has 4 DHs costing $40m.

If Bautista is fine with a two year deal, then I'm sure the Jays would be willing to do it. This front office took on Liriano for nearly $14M in 2017. Sure, part of that was to get two prospects in the deal, but clearly they don't mind a large AAV if the deal is short. Bautista on a 1-2 year deal would probably be doing the front office a huge favor, even at a high AAV. The free agent market is not good and they don't have any prospects realistically ready to step in to replace him right away. It makes a lot of sense for the team. What they are likely balking at is a deal for 3, 4, or 5 years, which I'm sure Bautista will still try for even coming off a down season.

The one player that looks like he'll be out of the Jays reach is Encarnacion. He's still young enough for some team to give him at least four years given his performance, and I don't see the Jays going that long.

Kind of funny how the arguments for and against re-signing Bautista are the opposite of what they were after 2010.

we used to complain about a 5yr "cap" on contracts.

now even 4yrs is too risky, apparently.

poor small market blue jays.

You need to take the age of the player into consideration with longer contracts. Each case is different.

Interesting article on Marco Estrada's unique changeup usage.

interesting article on the case for Britton winning the Cy based on wpa. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zach-britton-could-have-a-real-cy-young-case/

which I post only because Roberto Osuna has been the 5th best pitcher, starter or reliever, in all of baseball in terms of wpa.

As much as I would like to see one of the Jays win Cy Young, I agree that Britton should be the leading contender. If he finishes the season without blowing a single save opportunity with over 40 saves, he will likely get the award and deservedly so.

It all depends on player for the risk. No sane GM would sign Bautista to a 5 year deal at this point, few would consider a 3 year even as he enters his age 36 season coming off an injury filled year he has hit 112 OPS+ so far in which has been helped by a high walk rate which will certainly come down as pitchers show him less respect if that 222 average doesn't climb.

As to EE, a DH entering his age 34 season is a big risk on more than a 3 year deal but FanGraphs lists him as being worth $25+ mil a year since 2012 so maybe not too big a risk. Still, I'd hesitate before doing a 5 year deal unless I was willing to eat the last year or two of it. Best case has to be David Ortiz, also a pure DH pretty much from the start. His age 34 season was 2010 and has been worth $24+ mil (FanGraphs) every year since then. If the teams scouts and trainers and coaches all agree that Encarnacion is another exception to the general aging rule then I'd go to 5 years $25+ a year but $30+ is too much imo.

Saunders will never be better-positioned to cash in on a multi-year deal than he is right now (assuming nothing completely unexpected occurs in the next six weeks). He's healthy and is hitting as well as he ever has in his career. Again, I'd be very surprised if he didn't try to get a three-year deal this offseason, even if the AAV is below what he'd get if he accepted the QO.

If I'm the Jays, I don't love Saunders on a QO, but I'm fine with it given the fact the team is likely to lose Bautista and Encarnacaion, the weak free-agent class and the fact you avoid a lengthier deal with an increased chance of unproductive or wasted years from Saunders.

At the start of the year I was thinking of twin 3yrx$20m + $20m option deals for EE and Bautista, but with the caveat that their performamce this year would be key to assessing their value in the end. I'd still do that for EE, but i'd try to get Joey for 2yrs + option at a similar price now. the options would probably have some reasonable vesting terms, though, mainly to do with games played.

Surely Edwin will get at least 4/100. Will he not? I know Chris Davis was much younger, but he got a 7/161 just last off season.

"Why Grilli instead of Biagini with a 6-2 lead (and Grilli having thrown yesterday)? Not a fan of that decision."

Easy one. Grilli was warming when it was 5-2, so Gibby decided to just use him while he's hot even though they tacked on a 4th run to the lead. It was the right decision given the state of the bullpen and an off day coming on Thursday. If Grilli can't go today, he should be fine Tuesday and Wednesday.

Biagini started warming after Encarnacion homered to make it 6-2. If you have decided to bring in Grill regardless, why warm Biagini?

My interpretation there was that Biagini hadn't thrown in a few days and that Gibby would've gone to him if the Jays broke it open further.

Chris Davis signed at 4yrs younger, and has considerable defensive value, and he got $23 x 7. I doubt EE can match his annual value AND get signed to a later age...but I could be wrong. Gordon got 4x$18 at 32 with similar overall value. Zobrist got 4x$14 at 35. Cespedes 3x$25 at 30.

Hanley got 4x$22 +vestijg option at 31. Panda got 5x$19 at 29. Vmart got 4x$17 at 36. Martin got 5x$16 at 32.
Cruz got 4x$14 at 35.


I think 4x$20 is EE's wheelhouse.

That may be. That is why I am not a fan of the decision. 6-2 is a fine situation for Biagini in my view.

It's also a fine situation for the reliever who is already hot. I'm glad Gibby got Grilli in once he was fired up.

If you want to argue that Biagini, fresh off 3 days of rest, should've been starting the 8th inning anyway up 3 runs, I'm all ears. It's clear, however, that Gibbons is most comfortable with his defined roles, and right now that means that if Grilli is available that evening and the Jays are up 3 or less, the 8th is his.

Gibby has also seemed to lock-in Benoit into the 7th, and I think it's a bit premature there. I would prefer more fluidity there with Cecil and Biagini.

there's a good chance that gibby trusts Biagini more, and considers him more versatile, so was saving him.

I think the idea of having Biagini ready for 2 innings tonight is the right one. With Dickey you gotta have someone ready for 2-3 innings if needed. Also Biagini did 3 games in 4 days just before this big rest so he probably needed a long break. Others with 2+ days off are Tepera and Feldman, neither of which you would trust with a lead unless necessary. Osuna is very rested with just 2 appearances in the last 8 days, 12 + 14 pitches in those appearances with a full day off. Benoit only had 6 pitches yesterday and had multiple days off before that so he is fully ready for tonight if needed too.

I suspect Biagini is #1 out of the pen tonight with Tepera and Feldman to be used if the Jays are behind and Osuna getting up in the 8th for 1+ if needed.

Lets hope Dickey is on tonight.

Justin Smoak has 94 wRC+ over 301 PA's this year. Seems as awful as a lot of his at bats.

Teams without a 1st Baseman having 300+ PA's and at least a 94 wRC+:

Rays, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Mariners, A's, Phillies, Marlins, Mets.

He's not good, but he does seem tradeable.

Invoices have started to be sent out for next year's season tickets. Looks to be about a 27% price increase.

ugly, I saw a tweet saying that it is a 9% increase across the board.

As well, I just read this...

The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that for season tickets, all games will now be graded by a five-category system ranging from A+ (Opening Day and Canada Day), A (32 games), B (20), C (18) and D (nine) and prices will vary accordingly, with the result being a 13% average price increase for 54 games and a 7% decrease for 27 games.

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/15/blue-jays-cranking-up-season-ticket-prices

Basically Smoak is a poor choice at first but isn't the worst in the majors is what you are saying then I guess. He is at the top of the bottom third of guys at that position.

Of course, if the Phillies would just accept that Ryan Howard is a write off (78 OPS+ in 271 PA this year) and play Tommy Joseph more they'd have 300 PA by a guy with a 108 OPS+ 106 wRC+ which isn't impressive but is better than Smoak.

The Angels have Pujols who has a 102 wRC+ (boy has he collapsed and is signed through 2021). Also CJ Cron who has limited PA (just 287) but a 120 wRC+

I'm sure I could find other cases where a guy was just under the 300 PA with a better wRC+ than Smoak but that is as far as I feel like digging right now.

Smoak is basically signed as insurance. You know what you get with him and if you need to release him the cost isn't insane. The Jays have to hope Tellez develops quickly (maybe by mid-season 2017 or even earlier but 2018 is more realistic) or that Jesus Montero can be what people dreamed of years ago.

One thing that kinda bugs me is ESPN had an article today on odds to win the AL MVP. They had Altuve as even odds, which is fine I can agree with that if the Astros make the playoffs. But they had Donaldson as fourth behind Betts and Machado. Now he hasn't been great lately, but he's still I think better than both. (although looking at it Betts has pulled ahead in BWar)

Smoak can do 1 of 3 things:

1. Improve. He did have a 106 wRC+ last year. Not much better, but there is still a bit of hope.

2. Stay about the same. Most likely. Tradeable with little or no return if need be.

3. Deteriorate further. More likely than improve. DFA material.

Bluebird banter had a good article on it recently.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/8/11/12441170/an-attempt-to-make-sense-of-the-smoak-extension

Basically the TLDR is that this year Smoak is doing much better when hitting the ball, but that's being more than offset by his increased K Rate. If his K rate could go back to career norms and the profile stay the same he's actually a very good hitter. If the opposite happens he's trash. As of now he's a 95 WRC guy. Obv would be better if he could get back to the 105 from last year that would be nice. Mainly just needs to lay off the breaking balls a bit more on chasing. I could see him having a breakout year, but I wouldn't put good odds on it.

I see that as either a) him swinging harder, thus making better contact but whiffing more or b) just fluke variance of him missing borderline pitches that otherwise would have been weak outs, or maybe most likely c) gibby hasn't been able to use his genius fastball/breaking ball smoak/cola platoon that protected smoak from the nasty breaking balls last year.

I don’t see what's to hope for really - the guy's got near 3000 mlb PAs with a 95wrc+ and basically 0 war....which is also exactly what he's done this year. That's what he is. Decent bench bat....but a weird thing to lock into for multi years.

Maybe they evaluate his defense differently?

Most likely outcome, I think, is that Smoak won't be a Blue Jay next August. He will have been traded. If they DFA him I will admit defeat on the extension being a good idea.

We're still a week away from the time last year that Donaldson became the MVP favourite. The Jays rolled into LAA and Josh went 8/13 with 2 BB, 4 doubles, and a HR.

When the Jays win the division running away and the writers look up and see he had a better season than 2015, consider his title defended.

Trout: .311avg, 22hr, 75rbi, 90r, 19sb, .973ops, 166wrc+, 6.7fwar, 7.2bwar, 7.0avg (LAA: .419, last place)
Altuve: .362avg, 19hr, 73rbi, 86r, 26sb, 1.000ops, 167wrc+, 6.2fwar, 6.8bwar, 6.5avg (CLE: .517, 3rd place)
Josh: .292avg, 28hr, 79rbi, 93r, 6sb, .966ops, 157wrc+, 6.3fwar, 6.3bwar, 6.3avg (TOR: .568, 1st place)

Betts: 530pa, .313avg, 26hr, 84rbi, 91r, 18sb, .914ops, 138wrc+, 5.7fwar, 6.6bwar, 6.2avg (BOS: .552, 3rd place)
Machado: 501pa, .305avg, 26hr, 69rbi, 81r, 0sb, .915ops, 139wrc+, 5.5fwar, 5.6bwar, 5.6avg (BAL: .564, 2nd place)

yeah I think Betts and Machado are still on the outside looking in at the moment.

When did Altuve get traded to Cleveland?

Invoices have started to be sent out for next year's season tickets. Looks to be about a 27% price increase. That after the fans came out and led the league in attendance. Will they still have the balls to cry "parameters" come FA time?

While those of us who actually pay for season tickets appreciate the great concern for what we pay by those who don't expend anything more than the time to make up nonsense, it's probably worth setting out the facts.

My season tickets on the first level went up 6.3% not the nonsensical claim of 27%, a claim which is obviously made without any regard for the truth and for readily apparent alterior purposes. As Dalimon5 wrote a year ago (he also apparently actually pays for seasons tickets as opposed to whining about the price others pay) those of us who pay for seasons tickets are aware that we're getting a pretty good deal. We pay about half as much as fans in large markets like Boston, and in 75 cent mini-dollars to boot. Seats over the dugouts are $62.76 each from row 21 back, and only about $3 more for the first 20 rows behind the dugouts. People in large markets would be thrilled to get those prices, even without the huge currency discount.

As for the suggestion that a larger number of buyers should supposedly not result in (minimally) higher prices, or the ironic, in this case, claim that it is the club that has been 'crying', I would suggest that the same effort has been paid to understanding elementary economics as has been paid to the truth in making a claim of a 27% increase.

Shapiro was very direct in discussing ticket pricing earlier this year. The cheapest way of buying tickets always be through season tickets, and by buying tickets earlier. Dynamic pricing will mean that prices for games will vary by opponent, day of the week and availability, but the cheapest way to buy tickets will always be seasons tickets. I'd recommend it for those who actually go to games. Many people form groups to buy tickets. It's a sad reflection that some instead expend their time making up phoney claims of fact-free price increases.

heh.

Rogers' knight in shining armor!

Sorry bub, but i'm not lying. Good to hear yours didn't go up that much, but others have.

and yeah, we're already paying plenty before the hike:

http://fortune.com/2016/04/03/mlb-ballparks-tickets/

I don't care what they charge, and I don't mind paying....I will mind if they start whining about payroll parameters this winter, though.

Sorry bub, but i'm not lying. Good to hear yours didn't go up that much, but others have.

ugly, if you're not lying, then you're wrong.

"Season tickets will see a 13 per cent price increase for 54 games and a seven per cent decrease for 27 games under new pricing system."