it's weird, i don't think of travis having a great arm but he can really turn those DPs.

I don't think of him as having a great glove either but agreed, he's fantastic on the pivot.

Bullpen warming please.

too late.

You could see that one coming. 

I wish that Gibbons wouldn't use Feldman and Biagini in the same game before a Dickey start.  You end up with inning by inning relief this way.

There's an example of Upton's issue in centerfield.  His first step was in, and that cost him.

Upton also took far too long to get rid of that throw to 3rd the inning before. He may have a stronger arm than pillar but nowhere near the quick release.

Meanwhile, Devon Travis is a Star.

He's such a pleasure to watch- probably my favourite player at this point.

Unless Jose finds the fountain of youth I'd give him a qualifying offer and hope he signs elsewhere...... and as I was writing that he found a single in the bottle..... that's a start.

Jose's rep may have saved us a run there.....

Amazing that the Rays didn't send Forsythe against Bautista's arm.

Speaking of bunting situations...

The other option was to bring in Barney (who is going in defensively anyway) to bunt for Ceciliani.  That's what I would have done. 

Bossman Junior. Something big is due.

Or not.

Justin Smoak. Something big is due.

My goodness.

A 2-0 count with the bases loaded and you swing at a ball at your shins.

Devon Travis: "Do I have to everything for you guys? Okay, then."

Thank god for Devon travis.

Upton and Smoak not making the FO look good right now.

But Devo Hero takes care of it, of course.

Think Joey has had good hacks today. nice to see him get rewarded there. Might be about to bust out.

I think the Jays won the Travis/Gose trade.

Travis 2015: .347babip, .304avg, .361obp, .194iso, 135wrc+
Travis 2016: .351babip, .304avg, .343obp, .200iso, 125wrc+

just a handful of walks off of last year's pace now.

In 2011, Jason Grilli was 34 years old. He'd just missed an entire season with knee surgery. He had a 4.74 career ERA in 238 games, ERA+ of 97, pitching out of five different bullpens. He'd been DFA'd three times. He'd had one - count 'em, one - good season (2008 for Clint Hurdle in Colorado.)

And since Clint Hurdle gave him another chance in Pittsburgh? A 3.13 ERA in 288 games, ERA+ of 121.

Youneverknow.

Remember in the off-season when the Rays got Corey Dickerson and many pundits said he would help them win the division....that was awesome. (hat tip Chris Farley)

Dickerson does have 15 bombs but he is hitting .229.

As has always been the concern with Travis, he'll need to stay on the field. But he's putting Kinsler-like numbers up, and is almost a decade younger at a fraction of the price.

I'm convinced the Jays will need to keep a reliable 2nd baseman on the roster to spell Travis. Nice to have Barney around, who this year has proven he can hit a little bit.

Nothing ever comes easy for the Jays against Tampa. They either get beat, or play long grind-em out, pitcher taxing games. There isn't a team in baseball that pitches them tougher, or scouts their team as hard as the Rays.

He had a very specific physical issue that has been corrected. Nothing to do with damaged tissue, muscle, or ligaments. I'd be surprised if it's a lingering issue.

I love the duo of fiery Jason Grilli and ice-cold Osuna - such a contrast in styles, and both pitching so well.

Benoit, though, is making me nervous. 

Hey, I stumbled across a documentary on Netflix the other night called "Fastball." It was a fun 90 minutes or so. Anyone else see it?

Agree with Ugly that Travis had one specific injury only. There as never been any other injury concern nor any past history of concern.

"He got a bad jump on that one."

"Not only that, he spent too much time running in the same spot."

different plays, my friend.

Yeah yeah. I just love that quote. ;)

I thought Benoit's command was terrific tonight. Vanover missed some calls right at the knees. His velocity is the same as it always has been. He made a good hitter in Longoria look silly. Induced weak contact all over the place. He's been a tremendous pick up so far.

Weak contact was the theme of the night - with all the doubles TB put up, you'd expect the grounds crew to spend the night pounding out the dents in the walls, but they were all dinky-doubles. Must've been a sale on them at Kresge's.

When we got Travis he was on the DL for a core muscle issue. That worried me at the time.
I'm not worried now. You never know who will get hurt.

And the Graveman trade pays off once again.

Grilli makes me more nervous than Benoit.
I know exactly what Benoit is doing.
Grilli's randomness is a huge part of his success.

It's interesting that many of those pitchers have been together before.

I'm mostly worried that Cecil is brought on to face a couple of lefties and ends being crushed by pinch hitters.

The good thing about Benoit is that he allows Gibbons to have a structured bullpen set-up. That's what a manager like him needs. In 2015 I thought he had a tendency to overreact and overthink with pen usage until Sanchez became a reliever, and he was rated a poor bullpen manager as a result. By having Benoit-Grilli-Osuna, it allows him to not think at all, and just go with the same guys with a lead. That's not going to work every night, but it will help him and the team as long as they are effective most nights.

I've said before, I feel the days of the LOOGY are gone. Just have good relievers pumping high velocity out of the pen and let them loose for an inning without mixing and matching based on who is batting. Although, not letting Benoit face David Ortiz ever would be an acceptable exception to that rule.

He's such a pleasure to watch- probably my favourite player at this point.

Yep, mine as well. He's a terrific player, obviously, and perhaps even as good as he looked last year (who was greedy enough to expect that?). And he seems like a genuinely good guy which certainly makes it easy to root for him.

Someone recently compared him to Pedroia. Travis seems to have a couple of extra inches and a few more pounds, but their games are similar. I hate to say that I don't know that Travis has Pedroia's ceiling (Travis started a year later and because of injury, will only have accrued the same playing time by age 26 that Pedroia did by age 24), but 90% or 95% of Pedroia would do just fine.

I should also note that from a PR perspective, he seems to be Pedroia's perfect complement. Pedroia is easily marketed in Boston with the whole scrappy, tough-guy, in-your-face thing. Conversely, Travis behaves like the perfectly stereotypical Canadian, polite and humble.

He's going to deliver a lot of cheap WAR for the next four seasons. The team needs to leverage that with some market-value WAR playing around him.

not letting Benoit face David Ortiz ever

I strongly suspect that you picked the names "Benoit" and "Ortiz" more or less at random in order to make a general point about bullpen usage, but being contrary I just had to take it literally. Benoit vs Ortiz? Bad idea or not?

I had to find out, and actually Benoit has more or less kept Ortiz contained.

Benoit - 6-22 (.273) 4 BB
Grilli - 0-4, 3 BB
Cecil - 4-28 (.143), 1 HR, 5 BB
Feldman - 5-18 (.278), 2 HR, 3 BB
Coming into this season he hadn't faced Biagini or Osuna. And the starters:

Dickey - 9-34 (.265), 3 HR, 4 BB
Sanchez - 4-7 (.571) 1 BB
Stroman - 2-11 (.182) 1 BB
Liriano - 1-5 (.200) 1 BB
Happ - 3-11 (.231) 2 BB
Estrada - 3-9 (.333) 2 HR, 2 BB

Ortiz has his most career hits against Mark Buehrle? His most career HRs against Roy Halladay? No longer a problem! But I still think you bring in Cecil if it's a game situation. Ortiz has dealt very well with LHP his whole career (.265/.336/.476), but he's David Freaking Ortiz because of what he's done to the regular guys.

With Travis going this well, can we even fathom what a run this team would go on offensively if you had June/July production from Tulo, Eddie, and Donaldson?

That's not even counting Bautista, who hasn't yet had a hot streak this season (which, given what we've seen the previous six seasons is pretty crazy).

I'm not being overconfident here, but it seems we're just sitting around waiting for the camel's back to break.

Magpie, I mentioned Ortiz jokingly because Benoit gave up a grand slam to him in the 2013 ALCS. The infamous "bullpen cop" home run.

Oooh, forgot that one.

Petey you're not wrong - barring major injuries it does seem we're sitting on a powder keg that's about to be lit.

And hey, did Travis' injury cost us a world series last year?

Last nights strike zone was, well, interesting. Did a low strike run over Vanover's dog?

I don't love the Pedroia comp for Travis though. Travis is built much more powerfully and has shown much more power than pedroia ever did (even with that left field wall to cheat off of), while pedey is more of a walk machine. Not sure if Travis can match pedey defensively, either, though he's done nothing but impress there so far.

When I compared Travis to Pedroia earlier it was partly in jest but there is just so much about their games that is similar. If Travis is able to even approximate Pedroia's career arc, a big if granted, that trade will be one of the most lopsided in Jays history.

Grilli makes me more nervous than Benoit.

Benoit's velo may be fine, but that 5.74 BB/9, one full walk more than Grilli, whose numbers are much better since coming to TO, has me most nervous. 

I still love that trade, partly due to SK's point about bullpen structure and power arms, and partly due to Storen's suckitude.  I hope Benoit finds some more control - during his late career peak from 2010-15, his control was excellent. 

Travis (24-25): 483pa, 130wrc+, 4.7fwar, 5.3bwar, 6.7awar/650

Really just an incredible start to a career. Guys like Lawrie and Snider had nice september call ups when they were very young but I'm not sure I remember any Jay having this kind of start for this long. I mean he's hitting better than Delgado or Green at the same age. Almost as well as Olerud. Might be most similar to Alomar at the same point.

2yr Stats Comp for the AL East Race

wRC+

3B Donaldson (30) 156 --- 3B Machado (23) 137 -- DH Ortiz (40)147
1B Encarnacion (33) 145 - LF Kim (28) 136 ------- CF Bradley (26) 129
DH Bautista (35) 136 ---- 1B Davis (30) 130 ------ RF Betts (23) 126
2B Travis (25) 130 ------ DH Alvarez (29) 116 ---- 2B Pedroia (32) 116
LF Saunders (29) 127 ---- RF Trumbo (30) 114 --- SS Bogaerts (23) 115
C Martin (33) 102 ------- 2B Schoop (24) 110 ---- 3B Shaw (26) 109
SS Tulowitzki (31) 101 -- CF Jones (30) 107 ------ 1B Ramirez (32) 99
RF Upton (31) 96 ------- C Wieters (30) 87 ------- LF Holt (28) 96
CF Pillar (27) 87 --------- SS Hardy (33) 65 ------- C Leon (27) 85

UT Smoak (29) 101 ------ UT Pearce (33) 114 ---- UT Young (32) 113
OF Carrera (29) 93 ------ OF Reimold (32) 93 ----- OF Benintendi (21) 107
IF Barney (30) 80 -------- IF Flaherty (29) 70 ----- IF Hill (34) 85
C Thole (30) 27 ---------- C Joseph (30) 72 ------- C Holaday (28) 85


ERA-

SP Sanchez (23) 73 ------ SP Bundy (23) 69 ------- SP Wright (30) 75
SP Estrada (32) 75 ------- SP Gallardo (30) 93 ----- SP Price (30) 76
SP Happ (33) 85 --------- SP Gausman (25) 97 ----- SP Pomeranz (27) 87
SP Stroman (25) 100 ----- SP Tillman (28) 103 ----- SP Porcello (27) 99
SP Dickey (41) 100 ------- SP Miley (29) 113 ------- SP Rodriguez (23) 105
SP Liriano (32) 107 ------- SP Jimenez (32) 117 ----- SP Buchholz (31) 103

RP Biagini (26) 50 --------- RP Britton (28) 33 ------ RP Ziegler (36) 50
RP Osuna (21) 56 --------- RP O'Day (33) 49 ------- RP Kimbrel (28) 72
RP Benoit (38) 75 --------- RP Brach (30) 50 ------- RP Buchholz (31) 75
RP Feldman (33) 75 ------- RP Worley (28) 60 ------ RP Barnes (26) 80
RP Cecil (30) 79 ---------- RP Givens (26) 65 ------- RP Abad (30) 88
RP Grilli (39) 80 ----------- RP Ondrusek (31) 89 ---- RP Ross (37) 89
RP Barnes (26) 0 ---------- RP Duensing (33) 107 --- RP Tazawa (30) 91
RP Sanchez (23) 59 ------- RP Jimenez (32) 195 ---- RP Kelly (28) 56


Team Defense

TOR 1.4uzr/150 ------ BAL 1.0uzr/150 ----- BOS 0.4uzr/150
TOR +43drs ---------- BAL -29drs --------- BOS +19drs
TOR +36.9dwar ------- BAL +3.4dwar ------ BOS +25.6dwar

Devon Travis is currently the most searched name on fangraphs.

uglyone, lets not get crazy here. Travis has been great but Alomar at 24-25 was 6th in MVP voting both years while leading the Jays to 2 WS wins. 318/406/460 136 OPS+ composite. bWARs over 6 both years. wRC+ of 135 and 142, fWAR of 6.1 and 5.7 (big negative on defense in '93).

Travis is great, no question, but Alomar was a HOFer having peak seasons at the same age (yes, he had even better years in 1999 and 2001 - crazy good player, bloody Gord Ash thinking salaries would drop after the strike thus not doing an extension when he had the chance as I recall).

I don't mind getting crazy, and obviously we all get that sample size is everything, and Travis isn't doing this over full seasons yet, so we're only guessing and hoping at this point.

But that is actually the level he's played at so far as big leaguer. The question is whether he can keep it up.

And hey, why not get crazy?

Top Jays at age 24/25 (minimum 50pa, fangraphs stats only, ordered in terms of wRC+ as defensive stats back then were so different WAR isn't as reliable):

1.McGriff 1303pa, 156wrc+, 13.0war, 6.5war/650
2.Olerud 1132pa, 156wrc+, 11.2war, 6.4war/650
3.Alomar 1354pa, 139wrc+, 11.9war, 5.7war/650
4.Barfield 972pa, 135wrc+, 10.0war, 6.7war/650
5.Travis 483pa, 130wrc+, 4.7war, 6.3war/650
--
6.Phelps 760pa, 126wrc+, 2.2war, 1.9war/650
7.Lind 1003pa, 125wrc+, 3.2war, 2.1war/650
8.Wells 1325pa, 121wrc+, 7.8war, 3.8war/650
9.Moseby 1358pa, 118wrc+, 10.4war, 5.0war/650
10.Bell 1310pa, 118wrc+, 6.5war, 3.2war/650
11.Batista 409pa, 118wrc+, 3.6war, 5.7war/650
12.Fullmer 524pa, 118wrc+, 1.6war, 2.0war/650
13.Delgado 1158pa, 117wrc+, 3.4war, 1.9war/650
14.Kent 222pa, 113wrc+, 1.1war, 3.2war/650
15.Green 1160pa, 112wrc+, 4.9war, 2.8war/650
16.Fernandez 1369pa, 111wrc+, 9.3war, 4.4war/650
17.Hinske 1164pa, 110wrc+, 6.2war, 3.5war/650
18.Stewart 1287pa, 107wrc+, 4.7war, 2.4war/650
19.Lawrie 282pa, 103wrc+, 1.8war, 4.2war/650
20.Rios 1017pa, 100wrc+, 4.3war, 2.8war/650

Plenty of good warning examples in there - Phelps, Batista, and Fullmer in particular (though there's always the PED issue to think of with those guys).

But the level he's played at isn't just amongst the 'good' 24-25yr olds, but amongst the best of the best.

Long ways to go for him to prove he belongs there, of course. Hitting leadoff the rest of the way he should be able to come in around 750pa by the end of the year which will start looking like a solid sample.

I ran a Play Index for Travis- minimum 400 PAs at age 24-25, 50% of games or more at second base, BA .290 or higher, IsoP .150 or higher.  I got 13 names- two kind of worked for me- Carlos Baerga and Jose Vidro.  Travis had fewer PA than any of them, so it is really hard to tell. 

And hey, did Travis' injury cost us a world series last year?

I think it was the Cecil injury that did that.

In terms of Travis, he may not be Alomar, but he's by far the best guy we've had at second since then. It's interesting to contemplate why some guys outdo their minor league careers when they hit the majors, while others tank. Mindset? Continuous learning? Added weight/muscle?Different coaches? Who knows, but I'm sure teams are trying to figure it out.

Travis' milb numbers are kinda great, actually (even though he was a year old for each level) - aside from his stint in AA which was just good....which worried me when we traded for him....until someone here pointed out to me that he tried to play through an oblique injury to start that year...which made me notice that he crushed the 2nd half of the year that year too (~150wrc+ over his last 80-90gms). He's a career 138wrc+ milb hitter.

Prince Fielder's career is over as he is "medically disabled and doctors will not clear him to play", per a Tweet from Rosenthal. He finishes with the same amount of career home runs as Cecil (319).

That's sad news. But not surprising. There's a reason you don't sign guys who weigh almost 300 pounds to nine year contracts.

That is sad.

Justin Smoak gets the start tonight against Smyly.  It's weird- the club has faced 2 lefties and 3 righties in the last 5 days.  Smoak has started against the lefties and not against the righties.  Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders have hit very well against Smyly, while Martin and Tulowitzki have really struggled. 

The other way to look at the Prince Fielder contract is that the Tigers got decent value on the first couple years of the deal, then were able to flip his potentially onerous contract to TEX for Kinsler who has been flat out incredible in DET. We've seen the Jays' bad contracts removed from the books (Rios, Wells, Reyes, etc.), so when a guy like David Price takes a long term deal with an opt out, there's validity in wondering if a team built to win in 2016 should've been more aggressive and creative to facilitate his return.

Yep, Detroit did quite nicely. But isn't that an awfully risky strategy? Signing guys to horrible contracts with the idea that you'll be able to dump it on some sucker? I know it happens often enough, but... gulp!

Sometimes bad contracts for formerly great players can be flipped and sometimes they cannot.  Examples of the latter would be Mike Hampton, Mo Vaughn, Jason Bay, Ryan Howard, Chan Ho Park.  I'll bet that Pablo Sandoval's ends up in that pile too.

It is true that it is easier to find one GM who might pay for a big name with poor performance than for a small one with the same performance.  In other words, Tony Reagins is not the second coming of Branch Rickey. 

In the particular case of Price, the alternate strategy was to spread the risk around by signing Estrada and Happ.  That worked out like a charm at least for 2016 so far.

It's true that Detroit made a good deal for kinsler - but the tigers still ended up paying 76m ( 46 plus 30 to texas)
for 2 years of Fielder - not what I would call decent value. I was never in the camp to sign Price to that deal and I am skeptical that Price will opt after 2018 - James Shields isn't opting out of his contract and the Padres will pay about 48m for less than 2 seasons.

Sucks that Fielder had an early end as he was fun to cheer on. Love the coincidence that he ends with exactly the same number of home runs as his dad. Cecil got 2 more seasons in and nearly a 3rd (Jays had him in spring training but didn't keep him). 119 OPS+ for Cecil vs 134 for Prince so not much question who was the better player even if Cecil did play a bit at 2B and 3B and even LF (good old Jimy Williams).

The Jays apparently had a deal for Kinsler in 2013 which he vetoed (NTC). So the Rangers instead traded him to the Tigers for Fielder. With Kinsler becoming the Tigers everyday 2B for years to come, it blocked Devon Travis who was still in the minors at the time. One year later, Travis was traded to the Jays.

Funny how things work some times.

Detroit also got extremely lucky with Kinsler who rebounded and is defying the aging curve. 3.0 and 2.6 fWAR in his age 30-31 seasons in Texas, then 5.2, 4.2 4.2 this year so far at ages 32-34.

Fielder made about 130M and is still going to collect 120M.
Meanwhile Kingsler has made about 67M and another 37M over the next 3 years.
Texas is only paying 8M a year on the rest of the contract as an insurance policy pays the other half, but that's still a lot of money just to downgrade to Odor at second.

Kingsler is worth more WAR than Fielder, but somehow Texas must have been attracted by the MVP votes Fielder was collecting.

Kingsler is making 14M this year, but only 11M next year and got an option for 12M or 5M buyout for the last year.
I don't know how you get talented players to sign such team friendly contracts and then dump them for physically challenged players with hopelessly long backloaded contracts.

somehow Texas must have been attracted by the MVP votes Fielder was collecting.

It will probably never go out of fashion to overpay sluggers (despite weaknesses like defensive ability, age, and weight) and underpay middle infielders. That said, it is probably less the fashion than years ago.

It wasn't supposed to be Odor replacing Kinsler. Jurickson Profar had been the consensus #1 prospect in MLB going into the 2013 season and needed to play. And Texas did need a DH?/1B since they had dumped Chris Davis earlier.

It would seem that TB has their Devon Travis.

Powder keg was the metaphor I was looking for, ugly. Thanks.

It can go off any time now. These stranded runners are getting costly.

The Estrada pitch sequence to Miller could be used as a demonstration for young pitchers.

Has there been any studies on starters' effectiveness on 3, 4 5 days' rest?

This looks like one batter too many, but the guy is hitting .178...

Definitely Estrada should not be going further.

Has there been any studies on starters' effectiveness on 3, 4 5 days' rest?

The problem is that it's been more than 30 years since anyone used a four man rotation so there simply isn't a whole lot of data of pitchers working on three days rest. The last team to use a four man rotation was the 1982 Blue Jays. As I recall, that year Luis Leal was actually better on three days rest, but none of the other guys were.

It worked, but still an unwise decision from a number of perspectives.  If you're going to fret about Sanchez' health, how about Estrada's?  I'm more worried about 3 innings like that in a row and his back than Sanchez' arm.

Yup, I did something back in 2009 on Jays pitchers working on short rest. At that time, only three men  in franchise history (Clancy, Stieb, Leal) had as many as 20 career starts on short rest. This was how they did:

                                                                                      Avg
Pitcher     ST    W    L    IP       H    R     ER   BB     SO   HR    ERA      BF    GmSc
                                                            
Clancy      58   21   21   358     374   177   164   133   192   38    4.12    1577    49.6
Stieb       41   11   17   284     271   135   122    89   132   26    3.87    1186    51.9
Leal        35   14   12   234     230   103    95    80   100   21    3.65     988    51.4

Leal was better on short rest, Clancy was almost as good as usual, and Stieb fell off quite a bit.

That said, the one year the starters were working regularly on three days rest (1982, everyone had more starts with 3 days rest than 4 days), all but Leal were significantly better with the extra day. By quite a bit.

I was thinking more broadly than just Jays. There must be a large sample of data on 4 & 5 days rest because that is standard with and without offdays for a five-man rotation.

We only tend to see 3 days rest in elimination games.

In 2015, MLB starters pitched slightly better on 5 days rest than on 4 days rest.  It's a large sample.

This game has been particularly awful.
I've been entertaining myself by reading an interview with Chuck Tingle, but that was fine in time for the bottom of the 5th- coincidentally the only time the team showed life.
 then they gave up the ground they got back. So disappointed to see Barnes get hit hard.

Ugly, I think I hear crackling on the wick of that powder keg....

Man this is frustrating.

This offense has been infuriating to watch for a good week now other than Travis. A lot of whiffs and bad AB's. When Upton is the one who has a productive out over Bautista, Tulo, and Saunders, that's pretty bad.

Thank you, Mike.

That's about what I expected.

Gee I bet these Rays hitters wish they could hit in the Better Dome every game of the season. This is just ridiculous.

Had Estrada not walked so many this would have been a totally different game.
Still, the offense had chances and didn't do much.

Between this outing and the Morales slam on Sunday, Feldman's ERA as a Blue Jay is thusly ruined forever.

On the bright side, Feldman is getting killed with singles. Chavez would have given up a home run or two in this same spot. Either way, the swing man curse lives even with Chavez gone.

When Upton is the one who has a productive out

Hard to get overly thrilled by a no-out, bases loaded sac fly. I'm sure that before the at-bat TB would have gladly consented to that.

These three continue to struggle in August:

Upton 4/28
Smoak 1/16
Barney 1/18

Well, in this case, it was a bases loaded sac fly (Upton) versus a double play with 2 runners on (Bautista), a 1 pitch pop out with the bases loaded/0 out (Tulo), and a K out of the strike zone with the bases loaded/1 out (Saunders). Out of those options, Upton's was clearly the more desirable outcome, especially given how much he's struggled since the trade. A K by Upton would not have surprised anyone in that scenario, even with a lefty on the mound. He's been that bad so far.

not sure the 6 man rotation is doing our SP any favors so far. they all seem wild and less than sharp.

and our deadline pickups have failed the first impressions test.

Certainly prefer having Upton around rather than bringing struggling Pompey up. Feldman hasn't been good though. I don't know why pre Pillar injury that they seemed to have Upton going against RH and Smoak against LH.

As for the starters it's a bit early to blame anything on the six man rotation. All we can say is was starting Liriano worth it? His start was pretty decent so I think it is.

Feldman's ERA as a Blue Jay is thusly ruined forever.

Because he's given up more ER than Grilli, who got here in May? Still, nothing 16 scoreless innings can't fix.

And Barnes shuffles back to Buffalo. Bo Schultz time, I would assume.

I dunno. our SP have gone deep all year and that's 3 in a row where they haven't gone even into the 6th and a 4th who couldn't get past the 6th. not sure we've even had 2 starts in a row where the SP have failed to get past the 5th before this year. also the move to the 6 man rote didn't come with any warning this time like a regular day off.

might be a coincidence but might not.

as for a "struggling" pompey (another nice game for him tonight btw)....it's not as if he'd have done any worse than upton.

Still, nothing 16 scoreless innings can't fix.

I likes the way ya think, Mags.

I somehow doubt you can conclude that Pompey would be any better. Regardless I think it's better he gets every day playing time. It's not like he's tearing the cover off the ball in AAA.

As for the starters I think that has as much relevance as Clevelands disastrous run of starting pitching against the Twins last week. I'm sure you'll find some way to blame that run as well on Shapiro/Atkins though. Much more likely that the starters have over performed so far this year and finally strung together a few bad starts. It's not like Dickey, Stroman or Estrada of late (since he's ailing with his back) have been that good.

Bo threw 20 pitches tonight in Buffalo. So not sure he's the best option for innings tomorrow, which is allegedly why Barnes went down.

Orioles lose, Red Sox win. This is the best race in the game.

Upton: 40pa, .282ops, -35wrc+, -0.5fwar

I think it's fair to mention that this is ungood in a playoff race. Goins and Martin killed us in April, and they were hitting much better than that. Pompey was sent down for the disaster of hitting worlds better than that for a month.

If the trade deadline returns don't pick it up, or even start performing at a level we could expect from internal replacements, it might be fair to question the FO prioritizing prospects during a playoff race.

I'm not sure the 6 man rotation does enough to limit Sanchez's innings. At this point, it shouldn't be any different than an off-day. Now, it will start to look like 2 off days. Maybe they should just give Sanchez a couple of tandem starts instead? Or will they start skipping him?

Also, with a 6 man rotation, they should probably go to a starter next time they go into an extra-innings game.

A K by Upton would not have surprised anyone in that scenario, even with a lefty on the mound. He's been that bad so far.

Yes, I get it and should have made my point differently. While Upton's "productive" out did lower the run expectation for the inning, he could have lowered it even more with a K or a DP. SO beggars can't be choosers.

I wasn't pleased by how thrilled he seemed for hitting the SF. Maybe in the context of how he's been swinging lately, that AB counts as a minor victory. But it really was not terribly helpful. The Jays need him to be much less useless than he is being right now. And if he's wearing a Braves T-shirt under his jersey, he'll need to take that off.

Well of the four guys in the majors picked up near the trade deadline, Upton and Feldman have looked bad while Benoit and Liriano have been fine. 50/50. That's about the same as the rest of the team, with a lot of clunky performances from guys that have been here for a while.

It's been a long stretch for them and the break Thursday might help. They've not played well in the last week, yet still won half the games and are still in first. Signs of a good team.

When do ERA and FIP send different messages? Just check out Feldman's brief life as a Blue Jay.

ERA: 16.62. FIP 0.82

4 IP, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K but a .611 BABIP.

On regular 4 days rest this year, Jays starters have a 2.91 era (56 starts). On 5 days rest it's 4.72 (34 starts).

Prospects was brought back in the Liriano trade. Upton they gave a prospect to get him and get the Padres to pay You seem to be confusing two different things again, Maybe one should point out that over the last week or to most of the team can't hit either and also has 0 or negative WAR. Including Martin, Barney, Smoak, Saunders and Bautista. You're not going to win many games when only Travis is good and.Donaldson and EE are average. I'm sure if you asked most of the Jays of prospects vs the big league team they feel more comfy Upton playing over Pompey.

How many doubles have the Rays hit down the right-field line in these two games?  I think that the answer is 6.  Most of them were doubles all the way, but at least a couple were ones where in past years, runners might have been thrown out or might have stopped because of the threat of a baserunner kill.  Bautista gets to balls down the line slowly and his turn and throw is painful to watch.  Maybe when Carrera returns, they'll install him as the everyday right-fielder and move Bautista to DH.  It's not a great option, but at this point, the OF defence needs all the help it can get. 

In 602 plate appearances in 2015/16 (prior to being traded to the Jays), Upton had a 104 wRC+ and a 3.1 WAR. Are we really going to assume that the terrible 40 plate appearances since the trade is his actual talent level? Even in his bad final season in Atlanta he had a 75 wRC+. This is a really bad stretch of games for him after being traded. It happens. If he doesn't turn things around, then he'll lose playing time, but to suggest this 40 PA stretch is enough to criticize the front office for not trading prospects at the deadline is ridiculous.

I've said before, the team's ability to win the division depends on their stars. It always has and it always will. Bautista and Martin collectively have been mediocre this season (0.7 WAR and 0.6 WAR respectively), and Tulo while great defensively has been average offensively. Thankfully, Saunders has played above his head, and Travis is back to his 2015 level, so that's balanced things out a bit, but the stars are the ones you should be looking at. Upton, even if/when he turns things around, is a very minor part of the roster.

I wasn't pleased by how thrilled he seemed for hitting the SF. Maybe in the context of how he's been swinging lately, that AB counts as a minor victory. But it really was not terribly helpful. The Jays need him to be much less useless than he is being right now.

My $.02 is that Upton wants desperately to be helping out his new team, so he is trying way too hard. (I remember seeing him snap his bat over his leg after failing with runners in scoring position shortly after he arrived here.) So perhaps he was thrilled to actually be making a positive contribution.

And it didn't help that he was in a bit of a slump in San Diego: he was 3 for 27 in his last seven games as a Padre. So something was off before he was uprooted.

There's always a possibility that Upton might be done as a hitter - he is 31, after all - but I think we might just need to be patient again, as we had to be with Tulowitzki before he found himself again.

I haven't followed Upton that closely, but his swing and approach make him look like someone who is prone to slumps (long swing, strikes out quite a bit). He has pop in his bat, is a very good base runner, and can hit lefties, so you have to figure at some point he'll start to provide value. Even at his worst he shouldn't be this bad. Hopefully it is just a case of him pressing/trying too hard to contribute and it will sort itself out soon. He definitely cannot continue to play this badly.

I felt a lot better about Tulo when he was struggling.  His swing was still there, and it was mostly about approach.

Speaking of which, Tulo swore a blue streak after popping out on the first pitch with the bases loaded.  I wondered if he was swearing because he swung at the pitch (which looked to me to be quite a bit above the strike zone) or because he missed it.  I was hoping that it was the former- he can sometimes wallop a pitch up out of the park but mostly it's a low percentage swing. 

We know they decided to gamble on cheap question marks at the deadline. We know that the most valuable assets they added were a couple of 21yr old decent prospects, not actual players.

This was a strategic decision.

There is upside in all the adds but great risk as well. So far the results have been pretty much disastrous, especially since the one decent performance by Liriano hasn't really helped anything given we could have just stuck with a 5 man rotation.

But remember, the potential downside to these acquisitions is not only their potential poor performance, but also an unspoken committment to keep playing them even if they don't perform. These guys aren't getting DFA'd.

I'm allowed to point out when they struggle - and I've taken care to point out at the same time that it's a small sample so far and obviously inconclusive.

But remember, the entire rest of the season is a "small sample", and if these guys are liabilities for much longer this could cost us a playoff spot.

I can't say I felt better about Tulo when he was struggling, Mike, but it's true that after raking to get his back up above water he has settled in around league average offense for his last 100pa or so. But that's a much better slump than his early slump, and hopefully he has another hot streak left this year.

I wonder if they bring a hitter up for Barnes, and move one of the SP to the pen.

Q:  Is the club better with Carrera in RF, Bautista DHing and Encarnacion at 1B or with Bautista in RF, Encarnacion DHing and Smoak at 1B?

My answer is the former.  It's not what I would have said in the middle of last year or even at the beginning of this year, but things change.

Is it just me, or have the Rays of the past several years found the same Jays kryptonite that the Brewers of the late 80's used?

I'm not sure I'd categorize Martin as being mediocre this year. I credit a significant portion of the rotation's success to him being behind the plate, and even with his horrendous start he has a .330 OBP today. For me, that OBP with solid C work is about what the Jays should've been expecting when they gave him the contract. Since May 24th, Martin is hitting .267/.385/.456. I don't know much about WAR but when I see McCann has a higher WAR than Martin because of some SLG consider me highly skeptical of the defensive component.

There wasn't many big names at all moved this year compared to last, and yet the costs for the mediocre players moved was still pretty extravagent. The Jays couldn't match what the Sox paid for Pomeranz, and he isn't very good once you move him out of the NL West. Liriano was having a bad season, but talent level wise over the last 3-4 years he was the best of the starters moved in the trade deadline. Hill might be the only one who would be better, but we couldn't outbid what the Dodgers were offering. I'd rather have Liriano than Pomeranz, Miley or Cashner.

So lets go to positional needs. The jays were not trading for a C, 3B, 1B, SS or 2B. They had a need for another OF, especially to back up Pillar at CF. Upton was by far the best defensive/offensive mix OF capable of playing CF moved at the deadline.

Complain all you want, but the reality of the trade deadline this year was there was no good starters available (and the best two are arguably not better than the guy we got and way more expensive) and there was not a lot of OFs out there either. Your points on criticism kind of leave unsaid the reality that there was no one else to really get other than marginal upgrades out there. The last spot they did fill in RP well they seemed to have whiffed on Feldman but both Benoit and Grili have been pretty good so far.

I agree with 92-93.  WAR (be if fWAR or bWAR) does have a particular difficulty measuring the contributions of catchers and relief pitchers.  Russell Martin has performed better than the WAR figures would suggest, although obviously he has not been as good as his career norms in a couple of obvious respects (batting slash line and throwing).  It's interesting that he's hit the ball harder than ever in 2016  and more line drives than usual, according to fangraphs- after a terrible start, he's been pretty much the same hitter.  There is a good chance that he maintains that the rest of the season. 

In amusing news it seems the Sox got damaged goods in Pomeranz, but not sure if they will try to get an alteration to the trade. At this point it seems they won't contest it, but I'm curious what injuries there were with Pomeranz coming in.

Martin's framing still grades out well, so yes, his WAR doesn't capture his complete value, but overall for the season, he's been pretty mediocre. Now if you want to argue he has been better recently, then I agree with that. His first month or so was horrendous enough that he needed a lot of time to climb out of it. However, for the season, accounting for everything he's done, the numbers are simply not there compared to his norm. His defense/arm isn't quite as good as it used to be. He's top 10 in RAA for pitch framing, so that boosts his value up a bit (I'd rank him above Bautista in terms of performance this season because of it), but clearly he's not at a level that he's accustomed to.

My point is, when 3 of the 5 offensive stars you were counting on (Donaldson, JB, Edwin, Martin, Tulo) have been average or worse offensively all season, that's where a lot of the blame should go. A large chunk of the team's projected WAR coming into the season was because of those guys. Those are the players who have to produce in order for this team to take the next step down the stretch. Luckily the Jays have gotten great starting pitching, but the bats will still need to be elite for this team to have a real shot.

No reason to worry, age regression doesn't exist I've been told.

"My point is, when 3 of the 5 offensive stars you were counting on (Donaldson, JB, Edwin, Martin, Tulo) have been average or worse offensively all season, that's where a lot of the blame should go. A large chunk of the team's projected WAR coming into the season was because of those guys."

Not really sure what "blame" we're placing for this largely inherited roster being in 1st place.




Kasi - yes, you can argue that "nothing was available", and decide whether that is reasonable for yourself. It doesn't make it any better if it turns out we added a bunch of liabilities, though.

Well since you can't make a post without taking a shot at Shapiro/Atkins I think its fairly obvious where the blame is going. To that guy sitting in the Dodgers management.

On the other point even if Feldman doesn't work out, I think its a bit early to call it quits on Upton. I don't recall you calling it quits on Tulo/Martin earlier this year. And the other moves (Liriano, Benoit, Grili) have been quite fine so far. The worst deal the new guys did make was the Chavez deal. I think if Gibbons had used him better it would have worked out a bit better, but keeping Hendriks I think would have been preferable.

I'm not calling quits on Upton. (Though comparing his floor to Tulo or Martin's is maybe a perfect illustration of what I think is a problem.)

But I guess we're not allowed to mention the trade deadline moves unless they do something good. I apologize.

I agree with 92-93. WAR (be if fWAR or bWAR) does have a particular difficulty measuring the contributions of catchers and relief pitchers.

The other challenge for gauging catchers is their game calling abilities. I suppose over a long career, you can compare the pitchers stats throwing to one catcher vs their career averages...but you need a lot of years to make it meaningful. You're almost better to rely on subjective comments from the pitching staff.

Still, it's hard not to conclude that Martin has made a difference with the starters, given how many have improved during his tenure.

You can mention the bad just fine. We all have talked about Upton and Feldman's struggles. But you also gotta mention the deals that seem to be working fine right now like Liriano or Benoit or Grili. Or not paying a ton for broken goods like the Red Sox did.

If you're going to be critical of how they handled the deadline, you need to actually say if there was anything else they could have done. Given who actually got moved and what the prices were for fairly marginal pieces, it doesn't seem like there was many options. Now sure I know you love Pompey but I gotta agree with China Fan here in his posts on Pompey. The guy is just not ready for the majors and hasn't shown anything this season to say he deserves to be up here.

Pompey has definitely shown enough to warrant another shot in the bigs - my take on his AAA status is entirely developmental, and I'm fine with that.

Kasi, I agree with you that the FO has made some good moves in-season.  Grilli, benoit and upton came dirt cheap (although I don't know why more people are concerned about Benoit's control?).  Even with Upton's struggles, I feel it was a fine move - although I agree with Ugly that if he can't get untracked he should play less.  Once Pillar is off the DL we should have enough ABs to judge if he can contribute as a semi-regular this year or if he should be reduced to pinch running and defensive replacements.  Worst case scenario, we have a better backup OF than Carrera. 

Feldman is the only trade deadline move that has me worried - I wrote at the time that Lupe Chavez was a lot for a pretty mediocre reliever, and hindsight notwithstanding, think we could have had comparable results out of AAA relievers.  To me, it shows that the FO is far too fixated on relievers that can start in a pinch - Chavez for Hendricks is the one move I hated most at the time, and clearly that was a loss.

As an aside, do you guys remember how much Chavez got hammered the first time he was here? 

Hendricks hasn't pitched any better in relief this year than Chavez, and he was a disaster as a starter. So I don't think that was a loss, plus with the question marks around Sanchez and SP depth- which they haven't needed due to good fortune- I think that was a wise trade at the time.

Agree though that getting Feldman now when they have 6 good starters was likely overkill. But it's strange he's fallen off a cliff. Hopefully he's another guy that's just trying to hard for a few games before he settles in.

"As an aside, do you guys remember how much Chavez got hammered the first time he was here? "
I've been trying to forget. :)

Hendricks is absolutely a loss - he was terrible while injured, went on the DL, and has been strong since, and exceptional in his last 15 games.  Stats for the year are about the same, so those three years of control really seal the deal - that trade was a total loss.

Especially for those of us trying to forget all those HRs Chavez gave up. 

Chavez looked good for 6 weeks too. Trading one inconsistent low leverage reliever for another is no disaster.

Ryan Tepera is today's Buffalo Shuffalo. 

Chavez looked good for 6 weeks too. Trading one inconsistent low leverage reliever for another is no disaster.

Sure, in isolation.  Chavez cost an extra 4 million and Hendricks has three years of control left.  That's the difference, and its not insignificant. 

Bad roster management from a FO that seems to be pretty good at maximizing assets. 

I think I've been pretty praising of guys who've done well, tbh. And measured in my criticism of any of the new guys.

But there's 2 issues at play here I think - 1) whether these guys help or hurt us in our playoff run, 2) whether the strategy to just add good value depth guys (and imo all the moves have been good "value" - all of them) is something we should be happy with.

There have been some weird lineups recently.  Bautista sits tonight against a LH starter with Barney in left, Saunders in right, Encarnacion DHing and Smoak at first base.  Why would you sit Bautista and play Smoak against a LH starter and reverse things against a RH starter?  Is there something I am missing?

Smoak hits RHPs better than LHPs and Bautista (of course) the reverse.  Smoak has played the last 3 games with LH starters and has sit the last 3 games with RH starters.  I don't get it. 

Apparently Bautista hurt his knee playing the OF last night. Went for an MRI today. Might go on the DL.

Should be DHing, of course.

If there's something so obviously confusing about a manager's move, there's also something you are obviously not (yet?) privy to behind that decision.

Ugh, that is seriously terrible news. I was counting on Bautista to go ballistic with the bat the rest of the year.

Thanks.  Bautista in the OF has been a lose-lose proposition for him and the club this year.  

The news explains why Smoak is playing today.  It doesn't explain his usage pattern over the last 5 days, which I have commented on before. 

Good news is that Bautista now becomes a prime buy-low value FA pickup this offseason, which shapkins should like.

Shi Davidi tweets that it is likely to be Junior Lake if Bautista hits the DL.

It certainly does feel like the chances of Bautista returning have significantly increased from a couple months ago. The first round pick becomes a real anchor when you're 36, looking for at least 4 years, and have played less than 120 games in 3 of your 5 last seasons.

official word: sprained knee, 15day DL

It probably happened when he tripped flipping the ball to the infield and threw the ball away.
He looked more embarrassed then hurt, but he didn't get up immediately.

Sprains are easy to aggravate if you don't immediately lay off.

Bautista is still easily worth 17M on a one year contract and even if he refuses, Toronto would have more leverage than other teams thanks to the draft pick.

Snell started 12 games at AAA, so Lake might have some experience against him.

The Bautista injury will likely mean that Encarnacion will command an even higher price this off-season, as more teams decide that EE is the better bet.

This is Bautista's 2nd DL stint this season and his overall performance this season has been pretty mediocre. Bad defense, lower body injuries, age creeping up, production down, etc. At his age, it's tough to see any team giving him the type of contract he seeks in addition to losing a pick. I think Edwin is almost assuredly gone since some team will give him a big contract, but Bautista's case will be interesting to watch. If they can bring him back on a one or two year deal, it would be OK with me, but will his ego settle for that?

With that said, this is a blow to the 2016 team, which is more important at the moment. They needed Jose to have a big 2nd half. They'll need to piece things together with what they have (Upton, Ceciliani, Carrera, Lake, etc) until he comes back.

Platoon of Ceciliani and Lake until Carrera returns on Tuesday.

Hopefully Upton will pick it up and they'll be fine.

This team will not blow it. A playoff appearance. There is too much character on this team.

Some posters mentioned about who shall be backing up Russell Martin next season. Based on the discussion of A J Jimenez in Buffalo in another thread, I think Jimenez shall be given a shot at backup and part time catching and hitting in spring training next season 2017

Three steals for Bossman Jr. tonight. Get him on my fantasy team stat!

I have a hunch the front office knew Pillar and Bautista were banged up and believed another late season DL stint (maybe a prolonged one, especially for Jose) would likely happen. Without Pillar, and now Bautista, the Jays would be entering a pennant race with an outfield of Ceciliani, Lake, and Saunders. Ouch.

One can only hope that what happened with Edwin and Jose in their late 20's can be replicated with Upton. Teach him the leg kick? Get his swing started earlier? Simplify the approach and swing from the heels at any fastball? Seemed to have worked for those guys.

Bit of a high wire act the first couple of innings, but Happ with another very impressive start.

I like the new Happ a lot better than the old Happ.

Happ might end up winning the Cy Young Award if he keeps this up. The Jays rotation has been surprisingly good this year.

wins make things better.

....as does ARod keying a late inning yankees rally over the Sox.

"Happ might end up winning the Cy Young Award if he keeps this up"

Happ might be the next Cliff Lee if this keeps up.

Hey, uglyone, is your real name August Fagerstrom?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-prevent-the-inevitable-underrating-of-devon-travis/

The great thing about Happ is this is not smoke and mirrors. Earlier in the year he was getting a bit lucky, but he's been "Pittsburgh Happ" for a while now. Commanding his fastball well, getting strike outs, and just being overall effective. Amazing transformation.

I'm pretty sure the jays have never had 3 SP do what sanchez/estrada/happ are doing this year.

August stole my WAR pace stat! I should get royalties at least.

Happ was a starting pitcher for the Lynx the last year Ottawa had a AAA team.
He was just some guy with an ERA over 5.

Howsabout 1985 Stieb (ERA crown 171 ERA+), Key (first year as a starter in majors 141 ERA+), Alexander (17 wins 123 ERA+) - won the division with 99 wins, the most wins of any Jays team ever.

1982 was impressive too - Stieb 138 ERA+, Clancy 121, Leal 114 all were 24-26 years old, all started 38-40 games (not a typo) with 249-288 innings pitched. #4 starter was Gott (just 22) with a 102 ERA+ over 23 starts and 7 relief games leaving 23 starts for a group of 5 who didn't do so hot.

2008 was good - Halladay 152 ERA+, Marcum 125, Litsch 118. A few other years have 3 with 110+'s in the rotation like 1987 but the 3rd is normally too low to be a 'wow'.

Yeah, I like 2016's Sanchez (148), Estrada (143), Happ (137 before tonight) with Dickey & Stroman slowing it down with their dancing around 90 for ERA+. Only 7 pitchers used as starters this year so far - a nice change.

Happ probably bumps up to 143 tonight. Damn that's impressive by all 3.

Oakland makes it three in a row - each by one run! - over the Orioles. First place til we meet again!

David Price 2016 bWAR - 1.5
Total 2016 bWAR - 1.5
Total 2016 innings pitched - 155.2
Total 2016 salary - $30.0M

Marco Estrada 2016 bWAR - 3.0
J.A. Happ 2016 bWAR - 2.9
R.A. Dickey 2016 bWAR - -0.2
Total 2016 bWAR - 5.7
Total 2016 innings pitched - 407.3
Total 2016 salary - $33.5M

What a shame "we" couldn't have just signed Estrada and Dickey and Happ for six more years like the Red Sux did with Price.

I'm guessing this is the first time all 3 of Upton, Smoak and Barney have had hits in the same game.

Holy crap. CarGo DFA'd? He's not that bad, he just lost the ball in the lights!

Now, that's probably a buy low candidate. I'm sure someone will pick him up for the minimum salary.

I'm sure someone will pick him up for the minimum salary.

Unless Houston finds a trading partner wanting to trade a bad contract for a bad contract, like the Jays did with Storen to get Benoit.

It never fails - the Jays take over sole possession of first place in the AL East, Happ wins his 16th, and Travis continues to tear it up, but ESPN's headlines are all about the Red Sox (th fact that Ortiz is day-to-day) and Yankees, etc.

Interesting - so an American media property focuses on the most popular American teams, rather than the Canadian one, quite possibly to drive page views. Whoda thunk it?

Did make #2 on Schoenfield's "5 Things" at ESPN:

"2. J.A. Happ will never lose again. He pitched six scoreless innings, he's 16-3 with a 2.96 ERA, and he has won 10 straight decisions, matching teammate Aaron Sanchez with that feat. From ESPN Stats & Info: The 2016 Blue Jays are the first team to have two pitchers win at least 10 straight decisions in a season since the 2001 Mariners (Paul Abbott and Jamie Moyer)."

BTW, #1 was the Rangers:

"They've won five in a row and improved to 26-8 in one-run games, best in the majors. Of course it's the best record in the majors. That's an insane .765 winning percentage. You may remember back in 2012 when the Baltimore Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games (and went 16-2 in extra innings). That was a .763 winning percentage, which was the best for an MLB team in one-run games since Grover Cleveland was a one-term president."

Oakland deserves a mention after winning 3 straight vs the Orioles and holding them to 3 runs total.

Amazing since their "Ace" is now Kendall Graveman and his 1.0 fWAR. He's also the only remainder from their season opening rotation. The others were the traded Hill, and 3 on the DL - Sonny Gray plus 2 guys who needed TJ surgery.

Musgrove and McHugh get the starts for the Astros on Friday and Saturday.  It would be a good time for Darrell Ceciliani to step up and show that he can be a useful complementary player.  I think that he has it in him.  He's always hit right-handed pitching well, and he does some other things to help you.

It's early but the starters haven't looked dominant in the 6 man rotation & they may blame the extra day off - I don't think the 6 man rotation will last - It will not happen but I'd be inclined to move Dickey to the pen if Liriano has another solid start - When Sanchez moves to the pen, Dickey can start again - but seniority and all that will probably prevent this from happening.

Kind of a bit early to make sweeping statements on the rotation. Estrada has been ailing for several starts and hasn't been his usual self. Dickey other than one start has been mediocre lately. Sanchez was due to have a non stellar start one of these days and he had it while Stroman had another of his subpar games.

One thing about the 6 man rotation is that it isn't going to be enough to restrict Sanchez's innings. If they want him below 210 by season's end they will have to move him to the bullpen.

It's close though.

We've got 46gms left (with lots of offdays) so a strict 6 man rotation could have him with 7 more starts this year, which is probably around 45ip, which gets him to about 190
by the end of the regular season.

They could skip a Sanchez start or maybe even 2 in the regular season with the off days, allowing him to start in the playoffs.

It would be much easier in September to restrict Sanchez' innings per start to 5-6.  Keep him to 80-85 pitches per start until maybe the last start of the season and then ramp him up to 90-95, so he's ready for a regular outing or four in the playoffs.  It is one possibility anyways.   

I think that's exactly the plan now - the "Houston plan" which was devised after Atkins flew to Houston to meet with Gibby, Walker, and Sanchez. No one made a big deal about this but my sense was that there was an overwhelming sentiment to keep Sanchez in the rotation from most of the players on the team... and thus from Gibby (who would side with the players) and certainly from Sanchez himself - he prepared for this all off-season and is having a Cy Young season.

I think the "Houston Plan" has Sanchez making ~7 more starts which should put him at or just under 190 IP and would allow him to make up to 3 post-season starts (~210 IP)... maybe as the Game 4 starter of each series?

In total, that's 32 starts and ~210 IP, which is a normal workload for a front-end starter and not an alarming use for someone at his age & experience.

They are probably better off using the off days this month to skip Sanchez's turn entirely rather than just to push him back a day or two. That way they could limit his regular season starts short-term and hopefully have more bullets available from him for September/October.

They might also just be hoping that by keeping him in there now maybe they can build enough of a lead like last year that they can skip him in late September. However the odds of that happening are less with 2 competitors versus 1.

There's lots worse problems than having one too many starting pitchers!

My guess is that this will sort itself out naturally: one of the present six will become unavailable or ineffective for one reason or another.

The fans, the players, and the manager all want to win now, which would make it difficult to put a positive spin on moving Sanchez to the bullpen. How do you tell people that you plan to reduce the chance of success now to maybe, possibly, increase the chance of success in the future. How do you sell that to a fan base which, before last year, hadn't seen any meaningful late summer or fall games for 22 years?

The Marlins who don't have the rotation depth that the Jays have and are in a more precarious fight for a playoff spot are skipping Jose Fernandez next start & plan to do so again to limit his innings - the Jays should follow suit - I think it's the responsible thing to do, playoff spot be damned.

I also think that skipping a couple of starts is a good idea.

Fernandez - born the same month as Sanchez - has already lost a year to TJ surgery, and was DL'd again last season with another arm problem.

Hey, I stumbled across a documentary on Netflix the other night called "Fastball." It was a fun 90 minutes or so. Anyone else see it?

I put it on my wife's "list" (she's the one who mostly uses netflix, I use it occasionally).

John Lott with Devon Travis. Beauty.  I love the bit about adjusting timing mechanisms to the pitcher. 

"What we wanted to work through was what’s going to be the ideal playing scenario for everyone involved, and Darrell Ceciliani has been as hot as anyone and playing really well in triple-A, so he’s going to get an opportunity in the short term," said Atkins. "Junior Lake will get more complementary at-bats and we’ll reassess that on a daily basis. Dalton has a chance to be a star, we want to make sure his transition is a smooth one, and one that has as little volatility as possible."

Just a random thought. Players often have to wait their turn to get their shot.
Lou Gerig for example, waited for his turn, which came due to an injury I believe. He made the most of that opportunity.

J Bautista also waited for his turn. He had an incredible breakout year in 2010. 54 Hr. But in 2009 he competed for playing time in multiple positions not just the OF. He had 336 ABs. V Wells 630 AB, A Rios 436 AB, A Lind 537 AB produced his best year and he played a lot of LF if I remember correctly because L Overbay was the regular 1st baseman. T Snider 241 ABs.

So next year, 2017, the OF could also be crowded. IMO Pillar and M Upton if healthy are going to get their 500-600 ABs. If the other OFs are Carrera, Lake, Ceciliani, H Ramirez, Pompey and anyone else then there is an opportunity available.

I think my logic is good enough but this is baseball. I get it wrong often and am surprised. George Bell became very good but they had to trade Dave Collins to give him the opportunity to develop. M Scutaro was obtained as a utility IF and to me he became very much more for the rest of his career but his stats do not back up this opinion of mine.

Yeah, I've been thinking about what the Jays will look like not just in 2017 but also further in the future. If we assume the Jays won't sign their own free agents or other ones (big assumption) what needs replacing (of significance)?

2017: RF (Bautista), DH (Encarnacion), LF (Saunders), SP (Dickey), RP Cecil
2018: Upton Jr (OF), Liriano (SP), Estrada (SP), Barney (UT)
2019: Donaldson (3B), Happ (SP), Loup (RP)
2020: Martin (CA), Carrera (OF), Travis (2B), Pillar (CF), Goins (IF), Sanchez (SP), Osuna (closer), Stroman (SP)
2021: Tulowitski (option year SS so could be 2022)

So pitching and outfielders are vital for the next 2 years, then we need Vlad #2 to be ready in 2019 and new catchers for 2020 plus lots more pitching.

Estrada wanted more years with less money per year but had to settle to 2 years. As long as he keep being good, he's an easy QO, but we need to wait for the collective agreement to even think that far in the future.

Over and above Jose's injuries and defensive woes,his 114 wRC+ is somewhat below expectations, after wRC+ between 135 and 181 the previous 6 years.

Still it's not totally unexpected considering he'll be 36 in a few months.

What is surprising is that his .222/.349/.444 , 114 wRC+ line is very similar to another player's .233/.374/.438., 112 wRC+. That player would be Bryce Harper.

Adrian Beltre, so classy.

What is surprising is that his .222/.349/.444 , 114 wRC+ line is very similar to another player's .233/.374/.438., 112 wRC+. That player would be Bryce Harper.

What is really surprising though is the bizarre comparison between a a defensively-limited and fast-declining 35-year-old veteran whose best season (at age 30) still falls far short of of the best season of the age-22 season of a 23-year-old superstar.

hypobole, are you saying you'd rather have Bautista on the roster than Bryce Harper?

Can't speak for hypo but it sounds to me like he's saying harper is having a pretty poor year.

John, I've been thinking about the 3B and SS situation.
-If Donaldson doesn't get extended past 2019
-If Urena continues to improve/progress
-If Tulo stays relatively healthy and similarly productive to this year

A possible scenario is Tulo sliding over to 3B for the last few years of his contract where he'd probably still be solid defensively (possibly big drops in offense and defense, but maybe value compared to other options).
That's a TON of IFs (ha!) and a downgrade, but if the team isn't planning on re-tooling but letting people leave and rebuilding with young players that seems like a very plausible solution.

Parker, what's truly bizarre is your interpretation of what I posted.

Let me simplify.

Bautista has a mediocre wRC+ by his previous standards.

Bautista is almost 36 yrs old and as you said seems to be "fast declining".

Therefore why the hell does a "superstar" who is thought of as one of the 2 best position players in MLB and coming off a 197 wRC+ season hitting like this years version of Jose Bautista?

Wonder who the 'jays of the future' are for each position and depth at each. Hey minor league addicts - can you guys make a list like that? Checking MLB's top 30 I get (sorted by ranking at each position)...

CA: McGuire, Pentacost, Jansen
1B: Tellez, McBroom
2B: --
3B: Guerrero
SS: Urena, Bichette
OF: Alford, Ramirez, Woodman, Palacios, DJ Davis, Pruitt, D Smith, Fields

LHP: Perdomo, Borucki, Girodo,
RHP: Reid Folley, Harris, Zeuch, Greene, Maese, Rios, Murphy, Espada, Dias, Hollon, Dragmire,


So lots in the pitching side and the outfield but a bit thin in the infield. 3 catchers is good for top prospects. Good to have so many in the outfield right now with 2 holes opening very soon and you can never have too much pitching.

I don't know about pretty poor. He's been worth 5.1, 3.7, 1.0, 9.9 and now 1.5 bWAR.
I'd say it's more variance then decline. It's a bit frustrating to get 2 WAR when you're hoping for 10,  but that's why they play the games. It's not like he cost them a lot in anything.

Isn't Biggio a 2B?

maybe something like this:

CF Pompey 23
RF Alford 21
LF Ramirez 21
3B Bichette 18
SS Urena 20
2B Travis 25
1B Guerrero 17
DH Tellez 21
C McGuire 21

UT Pentecost 23
OF Woodman 21
IF Biggio 21
C Jansen 21
XH Palacios


SP Sanchez 23
SP Stroman 25
SP Osuna 21
SP Reid-Foley 21
SP Maese 19

RP Greene 21
RP Zeuch 20
RP Rios 21
RP Harris 22
RP Perdomo 22
RP Borucki 22
RP Jackson 21
XP Hollon 21

and that's about as far as i'd want to stretch that list. but I do like everyone on here as legit prospects.

red sox bullpen implodes again. nice.

That player would be Bryce Harper.

Harper's BABiP over his career: .310, .306, .352, .369, .237.

No one's really worried about Bryce Harper.

I'm not even all that worried about Bautista's bat. He started out the season exactly where he left off in the playoffs - which is kind of what you want to see. He fell off in May, which means nothing, and he got hurt in June. He comes back and just as he's starting to shake off the rust, he gets hurt again. Injuries are always worrisome with any older player, but these both look like random flukes - he runs into a wall, he catches a spike.

Still, that's twice he's hurt himself running into a wall. He should stop doing that.

Bautista is almost 36 yrs old and as you said seems to be "fast declining".

Therefore why the hell does a "superstar" who is thought of as one of the 2 best position players in MLB and coming off a 197 wRC+ season hitting like this years version of Jose Bautista?

You mean, other than what you just said?

Because one of them is having a fallback year after one of the single-most dominant seasons in the history of MLB, and the other is having a season that only he himself should find mystifying. Bautista is 35. He's SUPPOSED to get worse. Maybe very much worse, and maybe very quickly. Harper is 23 and coming off season numbers that only half a dozen players have ever put up at that age. And every one of them is a Hall of Famer. Harper is experiencing a slump. Bautista is falling off a cliff.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I find it very offensive (from a baseball perspective) and hilarious (from a satirical perspective, if that's what you were doing) that you'd attempt to compare Jose Bautista to Bryce Harper.

man you're super literal with people's broad player comps, eh?

Dude c'mon. You're all about stats. The key ones here are the previous year's sample and the player aging curve. What you're calling literal seems... just obvious.

I don’t think he was saying bautista was as good as harper or on the same career path. Just that good players can slump.

Bautista's been elite 6 years on a row, and was again to start this year, before some injuries hit. writing him off might be as extreme as comparing him to harper.

I remember thinking ortiz was toast when he posted a 100wrc+ over his full 33yr old season. turns out he wasn't. Cano was at 116 last year now he's great again. people thought votto was toast then he wasn't. same with Cruz. Beltran too.

I can't believe comparing 2 players slash lines/wRC+ can cause someone to go ballistic.

So here's another one.

Trout is less than 15 months older than Harper. Comparing what Trout did aged 9 months younger than Harper.

Mike Trout wRC+ 2012 - 167, 2013 - 176, 2014 - 167.

Bryce Harper wRC+ 2014 - 115, 2015 - 197, 2016 - 112.

While we're having fun with numbers, which players in the entire history of MLB have hit for a 190 or higher OPS+ at age 22?

Looking up the seasons of 190 or better OPS+ is kind of interesting. Looks like Harper, Ty Cobb and Ted Williams are the only ones to do it at 22. Willie Mays never did it, Hank Aaron did it once, at age 37(!), Honus Wagner once, at age 34. Babe Ruth did it 13 times!

Has anybody ever had a year like David Ortiz in their final season?

Bonds, of course.

I'm not even all that worried about Bautista's bat. He started out the season exactly where he left off in the playoffs - which is kind of what you want to see. He fell off in May, which means nothing, and he got hurt in June. He comes back and just as he's starting to shake off the rust, he gets hurt again. Injuries are always worrisome with any older player, but these both look like random flukes - he runs into a wall, he catches a spike.

Still, that's twice he's hurt himself running into a wall. He should stop doing that.

I don't know exactly how he hurt himself.  The diagnosis of turf toe doesn't seem to be easily connected to running into a wall.  As for the knee sprain, I thought it occurred when he tried to turn to throw on the ball to his left- this turn has posed a problem for him for a long time, from what I've seen. It appears to me to be a case of rushing because of the shoulder injury (he's more comfortable throwing after moving to his right). 

I wouldn't describe these injuries as random flukes.  If you put the great majority of players in the outfield at age 35, there is a significant risk of injury particularly where they already have a relevant impairment (in Bautista's case, a shoulder).  It has been suggested that he is less likely to suffer as many injuries as typical in light of his superior conditioning.  That doesn't seem to be holding true. 

Ted Williams was awesome. 235 OPS+ at 22, 216 at 23. Then doesn't play for 3 seasons due to military service in WWII and hardly misses a beat upon his return putting up a 215.

i think the turf played a big part in both of joey's injuries this year.

I think Jose will be fine. But I'm not sure he should be a regular right fielder anymore, at the very least for the rest of this season. There's no reason he can't split 1B/DH with Edwin, maybe playing the occasional game in right when the other guys need a rest. Of course, this is why I don't get the Smoak extension, since in a situation like that he will receive pretty much no ABs and is already of limited use.

Actually, the turf toe was caused by jamming it and hyperextending it on the base of the wall, not by the turf. The knee I can see, though.

Ah, so it was Wall Toe.

Sure, Spifficus.  I still wouldn't describe the events as random flukes, but rather the normal incidents of outfield play. It's not like Bautista is running Pillar-style head-first into walls or making Superman dives. 

It's important to remember that some of Bautista's offensive decline is entirely predictable.  He doesn't run out ground balls at all.  Even though he hits them on average much harder than most players, his batting average on ground balls is .133.  League average is .246.  On the positive side, he is hitting much better this year with runners on than with nobody on base. 

Sure, he did it in RF, so it was a consequence of playing in the OF. I was simply making the point that this was an acute injury caused by a particular play as opposed to a wear-and-tear injury that happens over time and repetition (or a combination of the two, which are probably the majority of leg injuries, or arm injuries for pitchers). Then it becomes a question of whether that happened due to him playing the OF badly, whether his age exacerbated the incident, or whether it's one of those things that could happen to anybody. I'm not in a position to make those judgements.

Williams was an utter bastard by most reports, but holy crap could he play him some baseball. Will anyone ever hit .400 again?