The Jays also now have Mike Bolsinger. He is better than Hutchinson as a #6 starter.

Ivan Nova to Pittsburgh. Interesting what Ray Searage does with him.

Tulo taking groundballs pregame.

"....The Yankees are giving up!...."

And the Jays have 10 games remaining with the Yankees.   Very nice.  The schedule suddenly looks a lot easier.

Ivan Nova to Pittsburgh. Interesting what Ray Searage does with him.

Fixes him so that the Yankees can re-sign him for 3/36 in the off-season.

The Giants acquiring Matt Moore looks like it could be the best deal... and it is an even year.

Bolsinger is a fun guy to watch because he's got zero FB and umpteen breaking balls. However, having watched him several times in Chavez I think they might need to hand out helmets to patrons in the outfield bleachers in AL East parks. I'm not optimistic about his chances for success but I will cheer for him. 28 year old journeymen with zero stuff are fun stories to cheer for.

Texas fans should be happy with today's reinforcements: Lucroy, Beltran and Jeffress.

Hope Bautista is working on his bat flip since Toronto and Texas seem to be well on track for another encounter. That is, if destiny has any sense of drama.

The Giants acquiring Matt Moore looks like it could be the best deal

I used to give guys like Moore and Hellickson a pass on their struggles because of their TB pedigree. But I think I was being overly generous. Neither seem to be more than middling talents as far as I can see.

I can't squint hard enough to make Bolsinger look good. I don't think he does anything for us, and wouldn't place him ahead of Hutch in any context.

agreed chuck i'm mystified how hellickson and moore are still looked at rosily, all these years later. they are not good now, and were not as good as their tbay era made them look the either.

You can't make Bolsinger look good - occasionally the results are good. He is AAA insurance.

"...I can't squint hard enough to make Bolsinger look good...."

It seems likely that the Jays were going to DFA Chavez anyway.  They were likely to dump him to make room for Feldman.  So, instead of losing him for nothing, they got a warm body in return.   Bolsinger was pretty good in 21 starts for the Dodgers last year, so maybe the Jays coaches can get him back to that level of performance.  I agree with you that he's behind Hutch in the depth chart.  So if Sanchez has to go to the bullpen (uncertain, but possible), the Jays have Hutchison and Feldman as the most likely replacements, with Bolsinger as an outside possibility if he pitches well in Buffalo in the next few weeks.

rpriskie, why do you say Bolsinger is better than Hutch?  Hutch is dramatically better, IMO. 

And Bollsinger is out of options next year.  although he has several years of control left, the lack of options dramatically reduces his trade value.  better than just losing Chavez to a DFA, but not much of an asset.

Clearly, even though Hendricks has been a bust, the Chavez / Hendricks deal was as bad as many called it at the time.  One of the new FO's only clear losses. 

I'm not thrilled about the Feldman deal either - he's clearly an upgrade to the pen, but I'd have preferred a Mark Lowe type deal - quantity over quality - Lupe Chavez is a legit prospect, with far more upside than the likes of Wells and Brentz. 

I do appreciate Atkins' willingness to tinker with the bottom of the pen depth chart - I was worried he'd commit to the likes of Storen, Chavez and Morales based on their contracts alone.  Guys like Loup and Barnes are upgrades over those three at this point.  And i would still consider a DFA for Cecil if he can't right the ship. 

Looking at the money side of things:  the Jays will owe almost $3-million to Feldman this season, plus a couple hundred thousand for Bolsinger, and they save about $1.3-million by trading Jesse Chavez.  But they also sent cash to the Dodgers in the same trade -- probably enough to cover most of Chavez's salary, to equalize the salaries in the trade.

So it looks like the Jays are adding about $3-million to the payroll in these deals.  Not a huge amount.  But it was probably true that Shapiro had socked aside a little money at the start of the season to cover the possible trade-deadline deals, like Anthopoulos did last year.

I guess I am alone in liking Bolsinger as a swing man type. He's not going to overpower hitters, but the peripherals are there. He'll be in Buffalo for the rest of this season most likely, but he's definitely a bullpen option for next season in Chavez's role.

New trade!  Jays got Liriano, just before the deadline.  Deal just announced now.

but the peripherals are there

I see a guy whose homerun tendencies will not be forgiven by the RC.

Liriano?

He might make a good reliever.

The Jays also now have Mike Bolsinger. He is better than Hutchinson as a #6 starter.

I don't know that there's enough evidence to back this up yet. Bolsinger looks like a classic bullpen conversion based on the numbers.
Never seen him pitch, though, and don't know anything about him.

Apparently its Hutchison for Liriano and prospects.

Don't like the idea of Liriano to the rotation and Sanchez to the bullpen.

Nelson Liriano is back. Not sure we need another second baseman, but there you go.

Wait, what? Francisco Liriano? The good one that Searage fixed? What, he's not fixed any more? Downright busted?

Curious pick-up. What on earth will his role be? Awfully expensive to be a LOOGY.

Sounds like the Jays are giving up Hutchison to acquire Liriano and two prospects from the Pirates.   A few Bauxites are going to be unhappy over this one -- especially since it seems to increase the likelihood of Sanchez going to the bullpen....

Just at a glance:  Liriano's BB/9 rate of 5.5 this season is a rather ominous number.   He leads the entire league with 69 walks allowed.

Liriano has been unplayably bad this year. And we gave up hutch? ugh.

I like Bolsinger. Obviously he is no better than back of the rotation, but you need those guys too.

Liriano, on the other hand, is just not very good.

Have roster sizes been expanded to 26 or 27? Where is everyone going to fit onto a roster with no optionable players?

this makes me feel a little better. I know, I know.

https://twitter.com/matt_gwin/status/760220692260323328

"....Where is everyone going to fit onto a roster with no optionable players?...."

The Jays have dumped Morales (DFA) and traded Chavez and put Carrera on the DL with "fake mystery Achilles ailment."  That gave them room for Feldman, Goins and Schultz.  They sent Bolsinger to Buffalo.   And to make room for Liriano, they can either option Schultz or put Tulo on the DL.

I wonder if Liriano will start out in the bullpen?  He hasn't thrown an inning in relief since 2012, but I guess he can do it if they decide on that route.  But I hope he solves that control problem.  A reliever with a 5.5 BB/9 is not what you want in high-leverage situations.

"It seems likely that the Jays were going to DFA Chavez anyway."

I thought "we" DFA'd him yesterday.

"....I thought "we" DFA'd him yesterday....."

No, that was Morales.   Hard to keep track of all the roster shuffles, I know.

Olney reporting AA outfielder Harold Ramirez is part of the package for Hutch. He's top 6 in Pitt system according to both BA and BP. 5-10, 220, so think Puckett or Marlon Byrd, at least in shape.

We got 21yr old OF Harold Ramirez in the deal too. Nice. Very good milb numbers while being a bit young for each level.

Updating my earlier post on the salary costs:  it appears that the Jays are adding about $7-million to the payroll by acquiring Feldman and Liriano.  (They save about $700,000 by trading Huchison, and the Chavez deal is a financial wash because of the cash that they sent to the Dodgers.)

Liriano, on the other hand, is just not very good.

He's certainly been awful this year. But he was pretty good for the three years before that, he can still miss bats, and he's being reunited with the guy with whom he's done his best work at the major league level. Let's see what he does with the role previously unfilled by Morales-Venditte-Girodo-Loup.

Not that I'm happy about trading for prospects at the deadline but at least this tells me they understand that Liriano is a longshot and not necessarily considered SP material.

It seems to me the FA is looking at 2015 and 2016 with this move. 2015 Sanchez goes to the one. 2016, bye bye Dickie and Thole.

I like Fieldman. Bolsinger is going to stay in Buffalo.

On the money issues:  I should have added that the Jays will owe $13.7-million to Liriano for next season.   I guess we'll find out if the Pirates are sending any cash to the Jays.  But it may be that the Pirates sent prospects instead of cash, which would be a good sign for the payroll -- although the payroll is a lot smaller in 2017 if the free agents depart.  If Liriano returns to last season's form, he could be worth the money in 2017, as a possible replacement for Dickey.   I'm very curious what the Jays scouts have concluded about Liriano's problems this year.  They must have concluded that the problems are fixable.  Liriano is still just 32, and reportedly his sinker and slider are still good.  If he returns to form, he's a useful 5th starter for the Jays next season.  If he doesn't return to form, the Jays have wasted $13.7-million on him in 2017 salary.

20M for Dickie and Thole would have just been insane.

No, that was Morales. Hard to keep track of all the roster shuffles, I know.

It was meant to be a joke in reference to the "we" argued about in the Baltimore thread.

Lots of decisions over the final two months. First and foremost, does Sanchez go to the pen? If so, who starts in his absence, Feldman (who has been primarily a reliever this year) or Liriano (who has been ineffective but now re-paired with his alchemist)? For the time being, are those two simply replacements for Chavez and Morales?

The Tulo situation is easy. If he's on the DL, Goins gets his spot. If he's day-to-day, however, do you roll the dice with just Barney as the backup infielder?

And will there be a return to 8 relievers? If so, then Carrera would seem to be the odd man out (and presumably a Jay no more) what with Upton having assumed the 4th outfielder's job, and with Barney seeming to be a passable 5th outfielder.

"....It was meant to be a joke in reference to the "we" argued about in the Baltimore thread....."

I'm always scrupulous about saying "the Jays" or "they" rather than "we."  I'm a fan, not an insider.  But I don't mind it too much if some Bauxites say "we."

I saw a bit of the Sportsnet deadline show. Someone mentioned that Russell Martin was catching Liriano in Pittsburgh when he was doing well, and they speculated that reuniting with Martin might help him, much like Grilli has improved since coming here.

Blue Jays gets Francisco Liriano, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=liriafr01&t=p&year=2016 ,Ca$h and Harold Ramirez http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=ramire002har from Pittsburgh for Drew Hutchison. Did everyone forget what a 5th Starter was/

The Tulo situation is easy. If he's on the DL, Goins gets his spot.

Why wouldn't Barney take the spot? He played there effectively before and certainly hits better than Goins.

Blue Jays reinstate Goins (Tulo insurance), recall Schultz (fresher arm), place Carrera on DL (doesn't have to clear waivers and still earns MLB rate)and DFA's Morales (everyone else is better).

Why wouldn't Barney take the spot? He played there effectively before and certainly hits better than Goins.

I think he meant "spot on the 25-man roster", not necessarily "spot in the lineup card".

On balance, I like today's trades.  But I guess if I'm going to quibble with anything, I'd say that Atkins and Shapiro seem to have a bit of an obsession with "rotation insurance" -- and this isn't always a good thing.  Yes, it's nice to have depth.  But when your 6th and 7th starters are question marks, the depth isn't necessarily there.  The front office spent a lot of time and energy in arranging "rotation insurance" at the start of the season (Chavez, Floyd and Hutch), and those guys didn't really help very much at all.  Chavez wasn't very good, Floyd predictably got injured, and Hutchison was never good enough to break into the rotation.  (Maybe Hutch will do better in the National League.)  The front office was clearly not keen on having Hutch as the replacement for Sanchez in the rotation.  So what do they have now?  A bunch of new question marks -- Liriano, Feldman and Bolsinger -- and it's uncertain if any of them are good enough for the rotation. 

The problem is this ambiguity of roles.  The Jays are acquiring "depth starters" and sticking them in the bullpen.  There's a danger, like Chavez, that they aren't great relievers and they aren't great starters.  They could be mediocre in both roles, because they're being asked to be ready for two different roles. 

For the record, Feldman certainly seems like an upgrade on Chavez, and I'm optimistic that Martin will help Liriano to sort himself out.  But as starters, both are question marks.  I'm not sure if the Jays have solved the problem of what happens when Sanchez moves to the bullpen.  And tonight Atkins again repeated that the Jays are determined to switch Sanchez to the bullpen later this season.  So now we have to hope that Liriano gets better in a hurry.

CF- I have no problem with fans saying we either. I was trying to avoid confusion (though i guess not well enough) by using "we" instead of simply we.

Anyway the FO obviously felt much as we (no joke) did getting rid of both Morales and Chavez in short order.

The Jays are getting Ramirez and another prospect who is unnamed as of now.

Not sure what to think about Liriano. From 2013-15, he was good-very good (8.7 WAR over that span). He's been bad this season, but he's still striking guys out and the velocity is the same. He's just giving up more walks and HR's, and obviously that's not good. Seems like a buy low trade, and I'm sure that extra year of control was a big sticking point for them as well. This FO was either not high on Hutchison, or felt he was expendable due to who they were getting back.

I view Hutch as a bottom of the rotation innings eater type, but under Ray Searage, he might be better than that.

I like these trades. Hutchison worried me a lot as a starter and more as a reliever in the Sept./Oct. time frame. I know Liriano's been bad -- but the guy is a vet and has been good. Clearly the Jays are a good team for Domincans to come and turn their careers around. Will Martin help? Who knows. But I actually prefer to see him out there as the a spot starter or reliever than Hutch.

As for Feldman -- he does seem more versatile than Chavez. Chavez seems likely to have more success in LA. The thing I don't understand here is why Houston did this. This makes me suspicious they know something about Feldman we don't.

hate to complain, but the FO clearly prioritized prospectz over winning this year, unfortunately.

I will hope beyond hope that Liriano is good but if he continues to be toast we may have just dramatically worsened our rotation, by replacing one of the best SP in mlb this year with one of the worst.

I would not be surprised if Feldman is transitioned back into starting and Liriano is lefty in pen for remainder of this season. Liriano would, of course, have an opportunity to start next season even if in pen now.

I really like the Ramirez acquisition. Sorry to lose Guadalupe but I wonder if he had an issue as he was never promoted when his numbers suggested he should be.....maybe not thought to be coachable...something like that.

From a tweet during the Atkins press conference tonight:   "Atkins: We had some financial flexibility that allowed us to acquire prospects in the Liriano deal."

So the Jays presumably aren't getting any cash from the Pirates, and they're boosting the payroll by $7-million this year, along with an additional $13.7-million salary commitment for next year for Liriano.

Sounds like the Rogers bean-counters have finally noticed that the Jays are leading the league in attendance.  Payroll finally going up.  A little, anyway.

I'd say that Atkins and Shapiro seem to have a bit of an obsession with "rotation insurance" -- and this isn't always a good thing.

I'm not sure that Shapiro/Atkins are obsessed with rotation depth, they are just reacting to the situation they inherited last year with AA. They were left with no high-level pitching prospects after last year's deadline and few major league starters.

Stroman looked great last Sept but is young, inexperienced and just coming back from injury. Sanchez was unproven. Estrada and Price were free agents. And decisions had to be made on Dickey's option and whether to keep Thole

So they signed Estrada and Happ, let Price walk, picked up Dickey's option and started acquiring depth (Chavez, Floyd, etc).

AA didn't have to worry about rotation depth because he had lots, but then he went and traded it all (Norris, Boyd, Hoffman, Castro). He didn't leave the new FO with much choice but to obsess over filling all the holes both at market prices and with dumpster diving

The second prospect obtained by the Jays in the Liriano trade is a 21-year-old catcher named Reese McGuire. He was a first-round draft pick in 2013 and a top-100 prospect in baseball last year.  (Number 98 on the MLB prospect list.)  The Jays are thin at catcher in their system, so this is a good acquisition.  At the age of 21, McGuire has already reached the AA level.  He might be the Jays top catching prospect at this point, ahead of Pentecost.

Damned if I know.  I liked Hutchison better than any of the other players traded or acquired today, but his record since the TJ hasn't been great.  Harold Ramirez does fill a gap- the Jays are collecting outfielders with at most medium range pop but who do possess other skills.  As for the impact on Sanchez, I can't see why today's dealings make it any more likely that he ends up in the pen.  Liriano and Hutchison are both reasonable choices to take starts from Sanchez, whether it is a couple or more than that, but it's not likely that either will be anywhere near as good. 

21 year old catcher Reese McGuire is the other prospect.

reese mcguire, another legit prospect.

catcher with defensive potential holding his own in AA despite being a year young for the level.

OK, Reese McGuire.  That changes things.  At double A at age 21, he has a positive W/K.  He's a left-hand hitter, who doesn't hit LHPs well.  He plays good defence.  Perfect player to learn under Martin's tutelage. 

Excellent deals by Atkins/Shapiro. They've come out of the deadline a little stronger both for this year and in the medium term.  They now have a much more balanced system, as well as some more reliable relievers for the stretch run.

"....they signed Estrada and Happ, let Price walk, picked up Dickey's option and started acquiring depth (Chavez, Floyd, etc)...."

For the record, I was a big fan of the Estrada and Happ contracts, and I supported the Dickey option, and I liked the acquisition of Chavez and Floyd too (as relievers, not starters).  I had no problem with any of those moves. 

The problem was that Chavez wasn't as good as we hoped, and Floyd predictably was injured, and neither of them was actually good insurance for the rotation.  Now they're both gone (Floyd is unlikely to return), and now the front office is sort of repeating the strategy by putting Feldman and Liriano into the bullpen and hoping that one of them is good enough for the rotation to replace Sanchez.  Let's face it, that's a real gamble.

And as a footnote:  is that AA's fault?  If the Jays still had Norris and Boyd and Hoffman, would any of them have been a good choice as a replacement for Sanchez in the rotation this season?  I don't really think so.  Norris might soon be back from the DL, but I wouldn't feel confident with him in the Jays rotation in a playoff drive.  Nor Boyd.  And Hoffman hasn't reached the majors yet.  So I don't think this should be blamed on AA.

Wow, McGuire and Ramirez! Looks like the Jays are eating a ton of Liriano's salary.

Can't remember the last trade where the Jays actually acted like a big market money-making team.

I would not be surprised if Feldman is transitioned back into starting

Atkins just said that Feldman was starting pitching depth but would be a reliever.

"....As for the impact on Sanchez, I can't see why today's dealings make it any more likely that he ends up in the pen...."

In his press conference tonight, Atkins made it very clear that the decision has now been made: Sanchez will go to the bullpen.  Only question is when -- and who replaces him.

Atkins also made it clear that the decision on Sanchez was made earlier, before the trades today.  Atkins also said the Jays had been pursuing 20 starting pitchers, including Liriano, and ended up with Liriano at the last minute.   It seems clear that the decision on Sanchez was the driving force behind the Liriano trade, and probably also the driving force behind the Feldman trade.

Wonder where these two prospects from the Pirates slot into our top 15 prospects.

That's definitely a good haul by Atkins/Shapiro. Improves the farm system and possibly helps the big league club in 2016 and 2017 if the Jays/Martin can fix Liriano. Best of both world's trade. Didn't sacrifice one for the other (farm/big league roster).

Atkins said that Sanchez is starting 1-2 more times before he's moved to the pen, so I guess 150 was their IP total for him in the rotation, give or take. Needless to say, Gibbons better be VERY cautious with his bullpen use. He has a tendency to have guys warm up and not use them, or use them 2 days in a row or 3 of 4 days. That can't be done with Sanchez. Hopefully, the combo of Grilli, Feldman, and Benoit can hold things down a bit so that Sanchez's pen use can be limited (but still helpful). Sanchez's mechanics have been talked about (negatively) for years now so I'm not sure whether changing his role will help prevent injury or not, but obviously this was their plan and they stuck to it.

I like both prospects quite a bit. They'll challenge for top 5 in the system.

But man it's hard to be happy about adding prospects when the playoffs are at stake. We should have been adding more player value, not prospect value.

I sure hope Liriano pulls a grilli.

Shatkins wanted to improve their backend of the rotation and the bullpen, they did so today, adding only $7 MM to the payroll.

Additionally McGuire is a great pickup for position prospect depth as well as Rameriz who fills the AA outfield prospect depth.

Low level prospect for rental player Feldman. Solid Core moves.
Feldman, Grilli, and Osuna, with possibly Sanchez in September

Now if Dickey can get his sh-t together, there will be enough depth to get to the playoffs , than a 3 Man rotation.

The question is... is the team better than it just was?

I think that depends on whether Liriano joins the rotation. If he does, those are starts that would have been better served by... well, just about anyone. Sanchez obviously, but even Chavez or Hutchinson would have been better starts. (I would prefer Bolsinger, to be honest, but there i uno way he starts over Liriano.)

Now, is it possible that Liriano recaptures his previous skills? Well, I thought Happ was a terrible signing, so what do I know...

I like the Pirates trade, but not in the way I expected to like a deadline deal: it's neutral in the short-run (Liriano has been dreadful this year; Hutch's performance has basically been a wash) but looks great long-term.

The Feldman deal doesn't move the needle much after Sanchez moves to the 'pen (at least 5 pitchers ahead of him) and Bolsinger is basically AAA fodder to replace Hutch.

Strange deadline. A good chunk of it appears to be dedicated towards reducing risk and ambiguity for next season, in that Liriano presumably slots into Dickey's $$ slot (~$13.5M) and Upton will replace one of Saunders/Bautista/Edwin.

I have to give a thumbs up to the FO moves today - I think Liriano will do well in the rotation - his salary next year replaces Dickey's salary. I've been down on Hutchinson for a while,should do better in NL. Love the 2 prospects acquired. Guadalupe Chavez is a nice lottery prize for houston to dream on.

Loved what Texas did & still kept their top young players.

These seem like good trades. I'm a little disappointed though that Sanchez is moving to the bullpen, despite the fact that's he's exhibiting no real signs of fatigue. I had hopes that they'd do something that's now outside the box and just let the guy throw. I remain unconvinced that more IP always = injuries. Some pitchers had great careers even back in the days when 300 IP was the norm, and some guys will still get injured no matter what you do.

hate to complain, but the FO clearly prioritized prospectz over winning this year, unfortunately.

Right, but there wasn't many places where an upgrade was possible. The weakest position is catcher and they have to live with it.

Not trading the 3 top pitching prospects for a 2 month rental is a good thing in my book.

That's timely as they just dumped Tony Sanchez to make room for Kratz.

I think the rationale with Sanchez is that the innings load would be too much if they made payoffs and made a deep run so there is some sense to start working on it now. It is a very controversial move to be sure but I think it is better to have a plan and sticking to it than not having a plan at all.

The bullpen might be crazy good now. The key might just be pulling the starters not named Happ after 5 or 6.

It is a very controversial move

I agree with the move of putting Sanchez in the bullpen at least in theory. I really want to see Sanchez full strength when we need him the most -- hopefully October.  Hopefully late October.  His fastball velocity dipped at the end of his last start -- when I heard that I was ready to move him to the pen before his next start.

"....The bullpen might be crazy good now...."

I agree.  When they add Sanchez, it's an awesome bullpen -- maybe a lockdown bullpen.  They'll have Osuna for the 9th inning, Sanchez and Grilli for the 8th inning, Feldman and Benoit for the 7th inning, Biagini for the 6th or 7th inning or mop-up situations, and they can afford to keep Cecil in his best role:  as the LOOGY for one or two hitters.  Several of those relievers (Sanchez, Feldman, Biagini) will be capable of multiple innings.  It's a very strong bullpen.

I also like the fact that the Jays have been ruthless in getting rid of their bad relievers.  They got rid of Storen, they traded Chavez, they dumped Morales, they demoted Loup. Now they've got a lockdown bullpen, and that's a huge advantage in a pennant drive.

Now the only question is whether Liriano can be adequate in the rotation. Perhaps I'm reaching excessively for a small sample of good data, but if you look at Liriano's last 5 games, 3 of them were quite good.  If you look closer at those 3 games (from July 8 to 21 against the Cubs, Nationals and Brewers), Liriano had an ERA of 3.06 in those three games and held the opposition to an OPS of just .576.   He still allowed too many walks, but he allowed only 1 home run and 18 other baserunners in 17.2 innings.  If he can do that for the Jays, they'll be happy.

my problem is that if sanchez had to be moved then they should have been getting tne best SP they could, not getting cute and trading for prospects.

of course, they've been doing a good job buying low on RP like grilli and benoit, so maybe it works.....but an RP having a bad 20ip is a lot different than an SP having a bad 120ip.

hopefully they strike gold again with liriano but man if he doesn't bounce back and they miss the playoffs by a couple games it might get ugly.

I'd stopped expecting anything from Hutch - he lacks command, so he tends to leave his fastball in easily hittable locations - so I'm okay with the Liriano trade. And it's nice to have actual prospects.

Chavez for Feldman seems like a slight upgrade. And I wonder whether Chavez wanted to go back to California; he's from there originally. And Bolsinger will fill Hutch's slot in Buffalo. It's all good.

I'm still not sure what to think about moving Sanchez to the pen. My thought was that the reasoning goes like this:

Step 1: Limit Sanchez's innings.
Step 2: Ensure that he will be good sometime in the future.
Step 3: Win a pennant.

So I'm thinking: why not just keep Sanchez in the rotation and eliminate Steps 2 and 3? Especially since no one really knows how to keep pitchers from getting hurt.

One thing is for sure: Shapiro and Atkins are not afraid to make difficult choices. The easy way out would have been to leave Sanchez in the rotation and hope that his arm doesn't fall off. The Jays leave themselves open to a lot of second-guessing if they move Sanchez into the pen and then lose out because of poor starting pitching. Pre-Price 2015 wasn't that long ago.

But at this point I'm willing to give Shapkins the benefit of the doubt. They've done really well so far.

it might get ugly.

I am hoping it does get ugly.  Just like Happ and Estrada got ugly.  I mean get uglyone to eat his words.

The thing I don't understand here is why Houston did this. This makes me suspicious they know something about Feldman we don't.

Nothing to worry about EC - he was just a surplus commodity, and they have pitching talent in AAA to replace him. 

Weird deadline - the prospects we added fit nicely into the higher levels, but I can't help but see Ramirez as a better version of dwight smith - kindof a tweener, not enough pop for a corner OF - and McGuire looks like a backup unless that glove is elite - 4 career HRs in his 4th season.

Texas has overperformed this year, but they certainly look to have won the trade deadline.  Lots has gone right for the Rangers this year - from signing a decent reliever in Tony Barnette from Japan (former closer for my old faves the Yakult Swallows), to the healthy return of both Profar and Darvish, the emergence of Matt Bush and Nomar Mazara - not many teams could survive having so many fading vets injured or underperforming. 

Three legit WS contenders in the AL - Texas, Cleveland and us. 

Approve. This front office has been making mostly solid moves ever since Shapiro took over (Anthopoulos had a superlative final year at the helm as well, so the last couple of years have been good to the organization).

I like that Shapiro and Atkins resisted the temptation to pay the going rate for top-tier players like Chapman and Miller. Keeping most of their prospects (including of their top ones) while adding Liriano, Feldman, Upton, Ramirez, McGuire and Bolsinger works for me.

It's also positive that Rogers gave them the financial flexibility they needed to make these moves.

You want to have 5 pitchers you can count on in the playoffs.  The Jays' five pitchers are still Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna. 

And as a footnote: is that AA's fault? If the Jays still had Norris and Boyd and Hoffman, would any of them have been a good choice as a replacement for Sanchez in the rotation this season? I don't really think so.

I don't blame AA for emptying the farm last year. I'm glad the Jays decided to go for it. Breaking the playoff drought was really important to excite the fanbase, increase revenue and get people to just stop talking about it.

But every team needs at least 8-10 starters a year. And realistically due to salary, options and service time rules, you can only have 5 MLB-level SP on your active roster.

So the rest of your 3-5 SP starter depth has to be controllable SP depth with less than 3 years service time and with options that you can stash away in AA/AAA.

But these controllable SP prospects are also very valuable and basically impossible to acquire unless you give up MLB talent off your roster. So if you trade away all of your Norris/Boyd/Castro types, you have to rely on swingman types like Chavez and Feldman or replacement-level players like Wade Leblanc

Having guys like Chavez and Floyd not be very good this year is the price of enjoying David Price last year

Harold Ramirez in AA at the age of 21:   .306/.354/.401

Devon Travis in AA at the age of 23:    .298/.358/.460

Travis obviously has more power and better defensive abilities, but otherwise Ramirez has been getting on base at the same rate as Travis at the AA level, and he has been doing it at a younger age.  He probably has a future as a major-league left-fielder who can get on base.  He's also got some speed (22 stolen bases last season) so he might have a future in the leadoff spot.

and McGuire looks like a backup unless that glove is elite - 4 career HRs in his 4th season.

Per MLBTR, he has "plus" defense.

Not surprised Hutch was traded as he was their most logical asset that was frankly, expendable. And I am glad they focused on strengthening the BP which has been a big issue for most of the last two years, and critical in the playoffs. Surprised, though that they didn't get a lefty for the pen.

Liriano...who knows. They were rumoured to be in on most of the pitchers, so whether they cheaped out prospect wise or whether the demands from other teams were too high, we'll never know. But it's sad to see the best starter since Halladay shuffling to the bullpen and being replaced by a pitcher that's lost the strike zone. Hope Liriano finds it soon.

The best sign from the deadline is the front office handing over some payroll flexibility which we parlayed into prospects.

The cycle is complete. The jays spent money last July, the fans turned up in droves, the ownership spent the "extra" money from the bump in attendance. I now have little to complain about from this ownership.

As for the players coming in. I don't think that they are incredible, but they improve our depth and bring some upside.

I expect liriano to be much better in Toronto. In fact he's been ok for about 5-6 starts now. In October, he gives us another lefty in the bullpen. Unless he's outpitching dickey (likely). Feldman has been a personal favourite as an innings eating type and to add a AAA arm on top is just gravy.

I worry somewhat about what will happen with saunders,ee, and Joey next season but for now thumbs up.

So our roster then is this:

2016 Stats

Lineup (WAR = fwar + bwar per 650pa)

3B Donaldson 470pa, .315babip, 162wrc+, 8.1war
2B Travis 208pa, .333babip, 108wrc+, 5.8war
LF Saunders 396pa, .351babip, 139wrc+, 4.2war
CF Pillar 423pa, .301babip, 83wrc+, 4.1war
SS Tulowitzki 331pa, .256babip, 104wrc+, 3.8war
1B En'cion 448pa, .277babip, 138wrc+, 3.7war
RF Upton 384pa, .313babip, 96wrc+, 2.8war
DH Bautista 315pa, .232babip, 115wrc+, 1.1war
C Martin 326pa, .319babip, 88wrc+, 1.1war

UT Smoak 269pa, .305babip, 102wrc+, 0.7war
OF Carrera 223pa, .313babip, 96wrc+, 2.3war
IF Barney 230pa, .313babip, 86wrc+, 4.0war
C Thole 106pa, .188babip, 26wrc+, -2.5war

(UT Colabello 32pa, .100babip, -39wrc+, -10.2war
OF Pompey ---
IF Goins 169pa, .210babip, 34wrc+, -2.1war
C Kratz 87pa, .133babip, -41wrc+, -7.9war)


SP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 32gs)

Sanchez 21gs, 6.6ip/gs, 63era-, 77fip-, 81xfip-, 5.9war
Estrada 18gs, 6.5ip/gs, 70era-, 92fip-, 105xfip-, 5.0war
Happ 21gs, 6.2ip/gs, 73era-, 91fip-, 96xfip-, 4.7war
Stroman 21gs, 6.5ip/gs, 114era-, 91fip-, 83xfip-, 2.2war
Dickey 22gs, 6.0ip/gs, 108era-, 127fip-, 111xfip-, 0.5war
(Liriano: 21gs, 5.4ip/gs, 139era-, 133fip-, 111xfip-, -1.0war)

RP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 65ip)

Osuna 47gms, 47.1ip, 44era-, 54fip-, 81xfip-, 2.4war
Biagini 37gms, 40.2ip, 57era-, 55fip-, 89xfip-, 1.0war
Feldman 21gms, 37.1ip, 57era-, 89fip-, 82xfip-, 1.0war
Floyd 28gms, 31.0ip, 94era-, 91fip-, 100xfip-, 0.6war
Grilli 42gms, 36.2ip, 89era-, 94fip-, 95xfip-, 0.5war
Cecil 29gms, 19.1ip, 130era-, 95fip-, 88xfip-, -0.2war
Benoit 29gms, 27.1ip, 113era-, 117fip-, 109xfip-, -0.4war
(Schultz 9gms, 11.0ip, 76era-, 111fip-, 82xfip-, 0.3war)



That's a pretty darn good team there.

But if we look at a slightly bigger but still recent sample it looks even better:


2yrs (2015-16)

Lineup (WAR = fwar + bwar per 650pa)

3B Donaldson 1181pa, .314babip, 157wrc+, 8.1war
2B Travis 446pa, .341babip, 122wrc+, 6.2war
CF Pillar 1051pa, .304babip, 89wrc+, 4.6war
1B En'cion 1072pa, .271babip, 145wrc+, 4.3war
DH Bautista 981pa, .235babip, 137wrc+, 3.6war
LF Saunders 432pa, .346babip, 132wrc+, 3.5war
SS Tulowitzki 865pa, .304babip, 101wrc+, 3.4war
RF Upton 612pa, .326babip, 102wrc+, 3.4war
C Martin 833pa, .283babip, 104wrc+, 3.1war

UT Smoak 597pa, .275babip, 105wrc+, 1.4war
OF Carrera 414pa, .330babip, 93wrc+, 0.7war
IF Barney 260pa, .302babip, 90wrc+, 3.9war
C Thole 158pa, .211babip, 29wrc+, -3.3war

(UT Colabello 392pa, .385babip, 127wrc+, 0.4war
OF Pompey 103pa, .275babip, 81wrc+, 2.8war
IF Goins 597pa, .277babip, 70wrc+, 1.7war
C Kratz 115pa, .157babip, -24wrc+, -6.8war)


SP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 32gs)

Sanchez 32gs, 6.4ip/gs, 71era-, 93fip-, 92xfip-, 4.6war
Happ 52gs, 5.8ip/gs, 85era-, 89fip-, 95xfip-, 3.9war
Estrada 46gs, 6.2ip/gs, 76era-, 102fip-, 116xfip-, 3.3war
Stroman 25gs, 6.5ip/gs, 102era-, 90fip-, 83xfip-, 3.1war
Dickey 55gs, 6.3ip/gs, 100era-, 116fip-, 115xfip-, 1.9war
(Liriano: 52gs, 5.8ip/gs, 108era-, 103fip-, 92xfip-, 1.7war)

RP (WAR = fwar + ra9war per 65ip)

Osuna 115gms, 117.0ip, 56era-, 66fip-, 84xfip-, 1.9war
(Sanchez 30gms, 26.1ip, 59era-, 75fip-, 82xfip-, 1.4war)
Cecil 92gms, 73.2ip, 79era-, 67fip-, 66xfip-, 1.2war
Grilli 78gms, 70.1ip, 83era-, 76fip-, 88xfip-, 1.1war
Biagini 37gms, 40.2ip, 57era-, 55fip-, 89xfip-, 1.0war
Feldman 21gms, 37.1ip, 57era-, 89fip-, 82xfip-, 1.0war
Floyd 35gms, 44.1ip, 86era-, 88fip-, 104xfip-, 0.7war
Benoit 96gms, 92.2ip, 78era-, 103fip-, 99xfip-, 0.6war
(Schultz 40gms, 54.0ip, 85era-, 117fip-, 100xfip-, 0.1war)


Still, though, the Sanchez-Liriano swap looks very dangerous.

"I mean get uglyone to eat his words."

Like I said, I'd love for nothing more than Liriano to get back his form with Liriano, just like Grillo did.

Definitely a possibility.

And to be fair - Shapkins have totally earned my respect in terms of their ability to make value moves. I especially like their bullpen philosophy. I'm not sold on value moves being enough longterm, but this team is still good enough to win this year.

Well, unless Liriano doesn't bounceback at least.

Liriano is an interesting one. After his strong 2014 I know a few here pushed for the Jays to sign him. 2015 was just as strong as 2014 but 2016 has been poor. HR/9 and BB/9 are his killers this year (1.5 and 5.5). 8 times he allowed 0-2 runs (ideal) 9 times 3-4 (OK), 4 times more than that. Currently the Jays #5 guy is Dickey (Stroman has a slightly worse ERA but seems to have turned the corner). He has allowed 5+ runs 7 times, 9 times 3-4, just 6 times 0-2 runs. So Liriano has had strong games more often, mediocre games equally, and poor games less often. So based on this years results I'd lean towards giving Liriano that slot over Dickey. Given the past 3 years Liriano has a much bigger advantage.

The big questions are 1) Is Hutchison better than he showed here? 2) Are those prospects the Jays got worth a few million each? 3) Who is better out of the pen, Liriano or Dickey? I wouldn't be moving Sanchez to the pen this year unless he starts to show a drop in velocity late in games or some other indicator of being tired. You don't pull a Cy contender from the rotation when fighting for the playoffs unless you are nuts or he is clearly at risk. I don't count innings as 'clearly'.

The posters on this site are always too quick to render judgement.

Francisco Liriano was 2-1 with 28.0 IP over 5 Starts, 3.86 ERA with 17 BB but 29 Ks.

In his 21 Starts, he pitched 6 Games of two or less Runs (not earned runs) Scored. Pittsburgh was 4-1 in those Starts. I expect the Jays would have done better.
In his 21 Starts, he pitched 5 Games of five or more Runs (not earned runs) Scored. Pittsburgh lost all those games. The Jays are known to win the occasional one of those.
In his 21 Starts, he pitched 10 Games of three or four Runs (not earned runs) Scored. Pittsburgh was 2-5 in those games. This is the meat and potatoes for Starters, Jays should win a lot if these games.

Russell Martin is back to being his Catcher. The difference, over a two year span, is about two earned runs.

Wait and see what we have first.

Do you want Sanchez pitching in October? Ask yourself, this is a simple yes-no question. Do you want Sanchez to be injured and unable to pitch? Ask yourself, this is another simple yes-no question?

Beyond this point I'm happy with the Jays making the decision. We shouldn't.

The more I think about it the best move might be a 6 man rotation going forward. Reduce the stress on kids Sanchez & Stroman, and on injury recovery Estrada too. Happ might want to stick with the standard schedule to have a better shot at 20 wins and the Jays could shuffle things to keep him on that every 5 day schedule thing. Dickey right now I suspect will accept anything.

So...
Dickey, Estrada, Happ, Sanchez, Stroman after today.
Thus...
Astros: Dickey, Estrada
Yankees: Happ, Sanchez, Stroman
Day Off
Cleveland: Liriano, Dickey, Estrada
Day Off
Angels: Happ, Sanchez, Stroman
Twins: Liriano, Dickey, Estrada
Orioles: Happ, Sanchez, Stroman
Day Off
Rays: Liriano, Dickey, Estrada
Yankees: Happ, Sanchez, Stroman
Day Off thus can skip Liriano or Dickey to let Happ face Sox I'll assume Liriano
Red Sox: Dickey, Estrada, Happ
Rays: Liriano (get back to long rest), Sanchez, Stroman
Angels: Dickey, Estrada, Happ, Liriano
Mariners: Sanchez, Stroman, Dickey
Day Off
Yankees: Estrada, Happ, Liriano, Sanchez
Orioles: Stroman, Dickey, Estrada
Red Sox: Happ, Liriano, Sanchez (might see some juggling here depending on situation).

Great way for the season to end with the Jays playing Orioles & Red Sox. For a one game wild card playoff you'd have Stroman lined up with Estrada on short rest available if needed or if you are in a gambling mood Dickey.

It could work.

In reliability analysis you use failure data to produce a failure distribution and a hazard function. If this hazard function was increasing over time or in this case innings pitched then a clear wear out effect would be true and legitimize the shutdown of Sanchez. I haven't done this analysis myself yet, but if the hazard functions does not increase over time then the tommy johns and shoulder injuries are truly random and an inning limit is futile.

It'd be interesting to see if anybody in the Jays FO would take a week and bang this out to truly find out if they need to shut him down. Most models I see used to predict tommy john victims are much more flawed.

Yes, I would like to see a statistically significant analysis done to evaluate the merits of limiting seasonal innings pitched increases to 25%, or whatever the number is, in young pitchers. I'm skeptical that it will actually make a difference in injury rates, but teams are actually making decisions, like the Blue Jays have just done with Sanchez, based on this idea. I was hoping they would leave Sanchez in the rotation, but if there is any definitive research that anybody can point to, I'd be willing to change my mind. Taking Sanchez out of the rotation creates a significant issue for the playoffs. In a 7 game series, the 4th starter only would pitch game 4, so is not as important, but you need a very good top 3. If Stroman can continue to pitch like he did today, that would be huge.

But man it's hard to be happy about adding prospects when the playoffs are at stake. We should have been adding more player value, not prospect value.

Geez, that's a real shame!

We were all lokiing forward to the "Flags Fly Forever!" claim, followed up closely by the "I didn't understand that a rental meant a rental!??!""" Poor me the Blue Jays didn't sing David Price to a cretin contract" "5,000 post offseason Crybaby routine.

Followed up closely by the 5,000 post "I don't understand the difference between results and FIP?!?!" David Price in season Crybaby routine.

Do you want to see a brutal front office? Hampered by an MLB-leading $260 million USD payroll, the LA Dodgers had to trade Grant Holmes, who on his own is likely to be worth more than the entire LAD front office in terms of wins, along with two others. for a couple of two-month rentals. Hard to get fleeced by the Oakland A's, whoever is running that show now, but somehow the LA Dodgers managed. Kudo's to the A's for the fleece of the trade deadline.

Not sure I see that.  By all accounts, the Jays just bought 2 prospects along with whatever you get from Liriano, and got some depth with Bolsinger and Feldman.  Lots of writers saying the Jays have made out like bandits today, and the Pirates should be ashamed of themselves.  Some even saying if the Jays DFA'd Liriano immediately, they'd have easily won the trade.

If Liriano can even get a little bit of the way back to where he was for 3 full years before this one...it makes the loss of Sanchez to the bullpen hurt a lot less.

Also - I don't think it's insignificant that the Jays have now added a starting OF and a starting SP to the 2017 team (Upton and Liriano), for about $17m total.  I think the chances of retaining one or two of the big bats just went up.

"...the Jays have now added a starting OF..."

Yet he's basically a 4th outfielder today.  Why would we assume that he's good enough to be a starting outfielder next year?  That might be an acceptance of mediocrity.  I mean, we all hope that he'll perform at the level of a starting outfielder, but I don't think we can assume that as a likelihood.

2 things about the recent activities of the FO that I Like - Chavez,Storen & Morales were all acquired by this FO & they failed & this FO cut their losses & moved on, rather than hanging on too long as so many FO do - I've always believed that a team can be both a buyer & seller at the trade deadline & that's what the Jays did & using money to acquire young talent like the Yankees have done.

"Do you want to see a brutal front office? Hampered by an MLB-leading $260 million USD payroll, the LA Dodgers had to trade Grant Holmes, who on his own is likely to be worth more than the entire LAD front office in terms of wins, along with two others. for a couple of two-month rentals. Hard to get fleeced by the Oakland A's, whoever is running that show now, but somehow the LA Dodgers managed. Kudo's to the A's for the fleece of the trade deadline."

Interesting that the 'experts' are saying that the Dodgers are the second clearest 'winner' of the trade deadline (after the Rangers).

See, Dean, you would have said the same about the Yanks front office as the dodgers, and now they reloaded their system beautifully and easily.

I'm not going to apologize for expecting the jays to want to improve the chances of their contending te this year rather than trading for prospects.

Grant Holmes is a good example of our disconnect. Good prospect, but even the scouts who love him are hoping for a mid rotation guy a few years down the road, while others see him as a reliever, and he's nowhere near a lock to be anything at all. He's got a good arm, with just okay results so far. KATOH, which I'm sure a team like the dodgers has their own better version of, places his average likely future value in the 2.5war range, when taking into account upside and risk factors. That's just not the kind of thing that should ever get in the way of making impact additions, rental or otherwise, IMO.

And while you're still, to use your words, "crying" over the Price rental, both Norris and Boyd have been terrible this year, and less promising than a guy like Hutch who you seem to now be happy we traded.

speaking of Price...

Career: 3.20era, 3.20fip, 3.34xfip
This Yr: 4.26era, 3.27fip, 3.18xfip
1st 7gs: 6.75era, 2.99era, 3.09xfip
Last 15: 3.25era, 3.39fip, 3.22xfip

How sure are you that you're the one that understands the relevance of fip?

FanGraphs has a negative assessment of the two prospects that the Jays acquired in the Liriano trade.  The writer says McGuire's bat speed is below average, he lacks power and he won't hit well enough to project as an everyday catcher. As for Ramirez: the writer says he doesn't have good enough offense to play as a left-fielder, since his defence is also below par.  He admits, however, that Ramirez has unique skills that are difficult to evaluate, including excellent bat control and hand-eye coordination, and has a chance to become a plus hitter in the majors if all goes well.

The link to the analysis:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-francisco-liriano-trade/

KATOH thinks McGuire is a top 50ish type prospect (similar range it puts pompey and tellez in), while it thinks Ramirez is decent but not quite top 100 worthy (while SRF and Urena are).

KATOH doesn't project guys in rookie ball like vladdy.

Saw that too, but that's just one guy.  There's more than one writer out there saying they'd love the deal for the Jays if Liriano was DFA'd by the club immediately, and they like both McGuire and Ramirez.

Are they elite, can't miss prospects?  Probably not, but they seem to be in the next set behind those types.

I'm just thrilled to see the Jays using their financial muscle.  Now they just have to make sure to lock down at least one of the big 3 FAs.

Could you do better than Upton? Of course.  Hope they can.  But I don't think they HAVE to.  Going into the deadline, the 2017 depth chart of controlled players was basically Pillar, Pompey, Carrera...and that's it.  Upton slots in to mean they don't "have" to add an OF for 2017, which gives you additional flexibility to spend on a DH-first player (such as EE or Bautista, or heck, even Saunders).  And now Liriano completes the 2017 rotation.

For 2017, now, you have:

C: Martin
1B: Smoak
2B: Travis
SS: Tulowitzki
3B: Donaldson
OF: Pillar, Upton, Pompey, Carrera
DH:

SP: Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano

The 2017 team needs a DH, backup MI (Goins, if you want to be cheap), and a backup C.  And they`ll have money to spend to do it.  Pretty great spot to be in.

I think the Hutch-Liriano trade is a win-win. I think Hutch has the stuff and he needed a change of scenery. If he succeeds in Pitt, everyone on Batter's Box can complain how we gave him up. The truth is, he was never going to be able to do it in TO.

That being said, Shapkins did a good job selling him when his value has totally plummetted yet. They got 2 decent prospects and an arm that can help them this year.

I do think Pittsburgh got the best player in the trade.

here's another fangraphs take on the trade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pirates-shed-salary-at-the-cost-of-two-prospects/

Well like uglyone said, Katoh and other projections are much different. Of the three articles in Fangraphs yesterday that mentioned the trade, only the one you linked China has any negative assessment of them. So I wouldn't say its fair to say that Fangraphs has a negative assessment. Eric Longenhangen does. (although Keith Law's article is not far off from what Eric says)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-prospects-traded-yesterday/

McGuire lacks power, but his other skills hint at a bright future. McGuire makes loads of contact, steals the occasional base, and of course, plays an uber-premium position. Despite his sub-.100 ISO, KATOH thinks McGuire will hit enough to make it work.

Ramirez has hit .312/.360/.409 in Double-A this year after slashing .337/.399/.458 in High-A last year. KATOH would like to see a bit more power from the 21-year-old. But as a contact-oriented singles machine who runs well, Ramirez has some things going for him.

Anyway I think the stats you showed there uglyone show an issue with FIP. First 7 games there he was awful, but according to FIP it was his best stuff. Problem is FIP is just too simplistic and is probably going to be phased out in lieu or more advanced/nuanced metric over the next few years. It doesn't factor in non HR hits, it doesn't factor in exit velocity, etc. I'm not saying its useless, but I agree with Dean in that it's also not telling the whole picture either and is way too reliant on HR/K numbers. With Toronto having three pitchers who buck the FIP trend/forecasting in Dickey (he has out performed FIP for years like knuckleballers do), Estrada (his ability to suppress contact and babip and induce popups is fairly proven at this point, something FIP doesn't capture) and Sanchez (FIP just doesn't care for groundballers and Sanchez has never had the sexy K numbers that FIP likes) I think Toronto fans more than anyone should be a bit skeptical of taking FIP numbers at face value.

nobody thinks fip or xfip tell the whole story. but they tell a very important one.

ERA also does not tell the whole story, or even the best one.

As I noted earlier when I made my comparison to Travis's numbers at the AA level, I like Harold Ramirez and I think he has a chance to be a major-league starter.  But if he's mostly a singles hitter, that reduces his ceiling.  And since his defence isn't great, he'll have to get on base at a high rate to justify his position in the lineup.  As for McGuire:  he's a defence-first catcher who will certainly reach the majors but is unlikely to be a starting catcher unless his hitting gets a lot better.  That could happen, but it's a question mark. 

McGuire and Ramirez are not elite prospects, but good enough to improve the farm system and add assets to the organization. Both are only 21 and holding their own in Double-A, which is considered the toughest jump in the minors. Even if they are just assets to use in trades down the line, it's something the Jays can use right now.

As far as going for it this year rather than adding prospects, this was a good balance. Unless the Jays were getting Chris Sale (and let's face it, they don't have the prospect capital to beat the Red Sox there), then trading prospects for marginal improvements was probably not a good idea. In this case, they got marginal improvements, but didn't give up much, and added some young talent to improve the farm system and add some depth there.

I do think Hutch will do well in Pittsburgh. What I saw from him this season and parts of last season was someone who could not command his FB consistently and was hittable when he couldn't. I could see Searage fixing him, though. In Toronto, he was probably a bottom of the rotation SP. My personal belief was they never should have let him throw 185 innings in his first full season back from TJS, but whether that had anything to do with how he's done afterwards is anyone's guess.

I'm just thrilled to see the Jays using their financial muscle. Now they just have to make sure to lock down at least one of the big 3 FAs.

I was encouraged by this as well. While the FO hasn't quite committed to last year's level of investment (they are now 11th in payroll and ended 2015 at 10th), at least they trended in the proper direction.

It's still a bit weird that they used this flexibility towards a future-oriented move rather than something that significantly improves the roster this season, but hey, it's something!

Really impressed with the Rangers and Yankees moves.

Sounds like McGuire could be Thole's replacement as early as next season, with Liriano replacing Dickey's salary.

March 22, 2016 FG Dan Farnsworth: "I was pleasantly surprised with the Reese McGuire that showed up in the Arizona Fall League; he finally showed some potential to use his plus bat speed...".

August 2, 2016 FG Eric Longenhagen: "McGuire’s body has matured but his bat speed is below average..."

Thoughts?

The scouting comments on McGuire are, um, not very helpful.  Evaluating a catcher in the same way you evaluate an outfielder is just not going to work.  So, McGuire is rated to have a future value of 60 field and 60 throw.  In other words, a very, very good defensive catcher.  How much offence does a catcher of that quality have to deliver to be a useful everyday player?  Answer: not much.  Bob Boone's career would be an example. Francisco Cervelli would be a modern version.

If you believe that McGuire won't be able to hit .250 in the major leagues because of lack of bat speed, then fine.  I am glad that the organization is taking their chances on that one.  Josh Thole was a lot like McGuire offensively (and not as good defensively). Pre-concussion, he was a pretty good player. 

I like how this FO does things. Last off season Lacava moved fast and signed Estrada & Happ. Many Bauxites pointed out that those contracts were better than average after comparing where prices went later.

I also believe that it is a good idea to trade for the future, next year and beyond at the trade deadline. Just don't weaken your current team that is trying to make the playoffs.

We did not add any stud players. We either tried and failed or did not try.

The rotation will lose a stud, Sanchez. But the pen will be very much stronger now. That decision will be debated a lot but IMO is is not a clear cut bad decision. But it makes the team weaker.

Next year we probably lose all of Bautista, EE and Saunders. Replacing the present Saunders and EE will be hard. I don't think current Bautista has produced the same as past Bautista.

The FO is still trying to win this year. Our #1 pen arm Osuna was never going to be replaced at this trade deadline. Acquiring a top SP is hard.

I liked Hutch a lot and always believed in him. I am probably right when I say that if he starts 10 games more this year in the majors he will be dominant in less than 80%. I would like to test that bold statement by comparing his performance to the V good SPs that did get moved.

Looking at the trades they make sense in a lot of respects. The Jays have few clearly weak areas and with the pen shortly turning into Osuna/Sanchez/Grili (nice cheap pickup)/Benoit/Feldman/Cecil/Biagini/whoever if they want an 8th with emergency Goins & Barney (hopefully not needed again). net cost was minimal in Lupe Chavez (young arm in rookie ball for the 2nd year, under a K per inning), Drew Storen (expensive disaster), and Sean Ratcliffe (21 year old in A- at the time, now back in rookie ball with 5 walks in 2 games since the trade).

The rotation was given Francisco Liriano but the biggest help might be Stroman getting back to his 2015 form. If Stroman can pitch the rest of the way as well as Sanchez has pitched thus far (very reasonable to hope for) then Liriano just needs to be as good as Stroman was through June (5.33 ERA) and we all know his track record suggests he can be a #1 type pitcher (under 3.50 ERA imo, ace is sub 3) on a staff full of them.

The lineup is scary good if healthy with backups being guys who'd be regulars on a lot of other teams in Melvin Upton and Darwin Barney with Ryan Goins being stuck in AAA once Tulo is fully healthy again. At least until September. The teams sOPS+ (OPS+ vs league at position) is sub 100 at CA (Martin seems to have recovered from horrid start), 1B (Smoak dragging it down), 2B (Goins at 21 kills it, Travis is at 109), CF (Pillar can have issues with the bat as long as that glove keeps going), and RF (Lake & Carrera drag it down). Basically for the playoffs (and key games) the weakness for bats will be only in CF (no way any change was happening there) and either 1B or DH depending how Gibbons juggles things (might put Barney in at 3B more often to give Donaldson more rest).

Yeah, no need to mortgage the future this year. Last year was much more expensive but also had bigger needs.

I LOVE the Pittsburgh trade. One FanGraphs contributor doesn't think much of these two top-100 prospects, and he might be the only guy in the baseball blogosphere who doesn't. You'd give him the benefit of the doubt, I suppose, except that this guy was fired from both the Phillies Triple-A front office, and also from a secretarial position at ESPN. That doesn't really sound like a vote of confidence to me.

Hutch has some potential, but a guy with very questionable makeup whose single harshest criticism is an inability to prevent home runs is probably not well-suited for "our" system. All the Jays really paid to acquire two legitimate top-100 prospects was a replacement-level pitcher and some short-term monetary commitment. To an organization with money, that seems like a slam-dunk win.

The Jays could release Liriano immediately and still win this trade by a country mile. You would think the prospect porn types here would be salivating over this trade, since no actual ML assets were given up. Despite random concerns about both McGuire and Ramirez, at the worst, couldn't they at least be traded by the Jays to acquire more of other team's free-agent signings?

Oh wait. The new front office doesn't make insane moves like that. My bad.

hypobole - thoughts?

I always assume internet prospecters can't help but be swayed by organizational reputation - in this case praising prospects within a respected pirates development system, then souring on them as soon as that org seemingly sours on them.

that being said, mcguire's stock did drop last year after a really bad performance, and doesn't seem to have bounced back this year even though his slightly below average performance in AA at 21 looks actually like a pretty solid bounceback to me (and to KATOH).

Adding to Northey, three ideas to ask:

1) Franklin Morales is DFA'ed. Could the Jays have traded him ?
2) Liriano was a comeback player when Russell Martin played in Pittsburgh. Could Liriano re-ignite his performance again with Martin ? Given Northey's analysis for Liriano's needing to be as good as Stroman through June, it is reasonable for Liriano to performance like a #2 for some age regression.
3) Goins, Bolinger and other young players are now in Buffalo. Could they be given time to be developed well enough as MLB players, probably not starter but staying in the MLB.

Yeah, no need to mortgage the future this year.
I agree with this last line.

Liriano's slider has been flat and up in the zone all year. I want to hope for the best from his reunion with Martin, but it's not the catcher's fault that the pitcher can't seem to throw his out pitch anymore.

Prove me wrong, Liriano/Martin!

to be fair to that fangraphs prospector, I'm pretty sure neither of them made any of the midseason top 100 lists either.

though looking at the numbers I'd guess both were just misses, remembering that 75th is probably closer to 150th than 25th in value.

Next year free agents and in house replacements now

Saunders - Pompey = big boost defensively, big drop in power, big gain in speed

Bautista - Upton = big boost defensively, drop everywhere else but speed.

Encarnacion - ??? = who knows right now, Tellez is who I'd love to see earn the job but growing pains will be big. Smoak is the 'regular' more or less at 1B right now.

Dickey - Liriano = clear improvement most likely.

Thole - anyone breathing who can catch = more offense, more defense, fewer knuckleballs.

Benoit, Feldman, Cecil - non-ace closer relievers are a dime a dozen and about as reliable as a politicians promise.

So I see 2017 as very promising. With luck a full year of Sanchez/Stroman/Happ/Estrada/Liriano will be a great rotation, Osuna/whoever hopefully will work out in the pen, Lineup should be faster and stronger on defense with a much better backup catcher by default, ideally one of the big 3 Saunders, Encarnacion, Bautista will re-sign for 3-4 years and keep DH full and Tellez will force Smoak to go away by mid-season.

I think Saunders could be brought back on a sort of reasonable contract and deployed part-time in LF and part-time as DH. If he stays healthy, he could continue to be a real asset.

On the other hand, full-time DH Bautista and 1B/DH Encarnacion are going to demand some really, REALLY crazy money. Best of luck to them.

"to be fair to that fangraphs prospector, I'm pretty sure neither of them made any of the midseason top 100 lists either.

He's no Jon Harris though, right?

One question is still lingering in my mind from the Sanchez announcement of yesterday:  can he still be brought back as a starter in the playoffs, if he is in the bullpen for most of August and September?   I didn't see Atkins address this question in his comments to the media last night.  A playoff rotation of Stroman/Happ/Estrada/Sanchez could be very good.  Of course we're hoping that Liriano by October will have rediscovered his 2013-15 magic.  But if that hasn't happened, I hope the Jays can bring Sanchez back as a playoff starter.

"He's no Jon Harris though, right?"

depends who you ask.

MLB.com Blue Jays Prospects

4.McGuire
5.Ramirez
6.Harris
7.Guerrero
8.Zeuch
9.Tellez
10.Greene

I mean you realize that I'm LOWER on Harris than any of the scouting rankings are, right?

You should be mocking me for not thinking Harris is BETTER.

For 2017,
Given Dickey is would be gone, so would Thole ?

Some team(s) just sold elder players for retooling their farms with prospects.
4) Given that Franklin Morales was DFA'ed and Melky Mesa was a former Yankees prospect, they are both 30 or 29 years of age. My question is that would the Jays unload these underused or unused parts to a team just loaded with prospect -- say the Yankees -- for one prospect ? Just like Wade LeBlanc had gone to Seattle and performed okay.

You should be mocking me for not thinking Harris is BETTER.

No, I should be mocking you for your dismissal of any prospect the Jays traded away under the old regime as nothing but organizational fodder, while the horrific wasteland of a minor-league system that regime left behind is somehow still praised as being better than half the teams in the Majors.

Where do McGuire and Ramirez rank into your list, while keeping in mind that they weren't acquired by your little boyfriend Alex Anthopolous?

Tellez... Seeing him taking over

About the Yankees, could the 2017 Mariners and the Braves resign A-Rod and Teixeira to economical contracts ? Could having one veteran could help the young players perform ? About the Mariners, the shortstop is not stable. Maybe A-Rod could play part time 3B and SS and retire as a Mariner, like Jeter as a Yankees' shortstop ?

My question is that would the Jays unload these underused or unused parts to a team just loaded with prospect -- say the Yankees -- for one prospect ? Just like Wade LeBlanc had gone to Seattle and performed okay.

Morales is less than worthless and untradeable due to his service time and guaranteed contract. He can refuse any assignment to the minors and force the Jays to release him at full salary due to his service time. A team isn't going to pay the Jays anything for him when they can sign him at the prorated minimum next week.

You can't package replacement players like LeBlanc and Mesa together to increase their value like in a video game. Prospects have value. AAAA vets do not. They are freely available, hence the concept of replacement

Seeing Tellez taking over at 1B could mean big performance from Tellez but to find a first baseman in the rough is not that hard either. To be creative, Brandon Moss was a 1B for two seasons with the A's so Eric Thames returning from South Korea or Art Charles from an independent league to play in Buffalo may not be surprising.

I believe that they've answered this one in the past (IE - if he moves to the BP, it would be a permanent move for the rest of the year).  Suppose that could change, but I believe they've been consistent on that throughout.

I am kinda happy at least all these questions are basically answered now though (Sanchez's status, who replaces him in the rotation, "will they trade Bautista" (however credibly you wanted to take those sorts of questions)).  Nice to be able to just focus on winning the division now.

"....A team isn't going to pay the Jays anything for him when they can sign him at the prorated minimum next week...."

This is almost certainly true.  But it's worth noting that the Jays managed to get something for Storen under similar circumstances.  When a player is DFA'd, it can sometimes lead to a minor deal.  If a team thinks that Morales has some value (and he did pitch reasonably well for Buffalo in his rehab), it could complete a minor trade with the Jays within the 10-day DFA period, in order to ensure that it obtains Morales without having to compete against every other team when he is released.

"Where do McGuire and Ramirez rank into your list, while keeping in mind that they weren't acquired by your little boyfriend Alex Anthopolous?"

I don't think it's healthy to get this upset because someone has a different opinion than you!

Take care of yourself brother!

Tellez will not be in the majors next year. Jesus Montero...maybe.

Sanchez cannot start in the playoffs after he has been transitioned to bullpen.

This is almost certainly true. But it's worth noting that the Jays managed to get something for Storen under similar circumstances.

Good point China fan. No one is completely untradeable, but Storen-type deals are rare. I think everyone was shocked that Storen was in the end traded and many likely presumed he'd already been released

While Morales is making a heck of a lot less than Storen (2 mil vs 8.3), it's important to note that Storen was traded for a player on a similar bloated contract (Benoit - 8 mil) and the Jays actually had to pay a nominal amount to cover the differences in salaries

It's hard to understand the Storen trade from SEA's perspective other than to get Benoit off the roster.

Even though Morales doesn't have much left on his contract, there's still guaranteed salary owing and he still can't be sent to the minors if traded for

At this juncture, unless a team feels like he is a MLB-capable reliever worth a big league salary and a roster spot, he's actually worth less than a AAAA guy like LeBlanc or Mesa. Of course, next week if he gets released, he goes back to being a low-cost, low upside asset again that can be signed to a minor-league deal and sent down.

Even if the Jays paid the rest of his MLB salary in a trade, he still can't be reassigned and used as a AAA depth so you have to find a team willing to keep him on the 25-man.

Where do McGuire and Ramirez rank into your list, while keeping in mind that they weren't acquired by your little boyfriend Alex Anthopolous?

It's comments like these that make me wish Da Box had robust forum functionality, complete with ignore and downvote buttons.

I understand it's not that kind of site, it's just my only hope to not be confronted with childish ad hominems.

"No, I should be mocking you for your dismissal of any prospect the Jays traded away under the old regime as nothing but organizational fodder,"

It's not me dismissing them, it's their performance. Nothing I say can change how they've performed.

And why aren't you mad at me dismissing the likes of Harris? That's AA's last 1st rounder still in the system and I don't think he has a future. Most every expert still thinks he's a good prospect (if you think he isn't then without knowing it you've probably been listening to me too much). I like the new FO's picks like zeuch and bichetter better already.

"while the horrific wasteland of a minor-league system that regime left behind is somehow still praised as being better than half the teams in the Majors."

The young kids he left behind on the team and in the system, are outperforming most other teams' youth.

Again, this is not my fault.


"Where do McGuire and Ramirez rank into your list, while keeping in mind that they weren't acquired by your little boyfriend Alex Anthopolous?"

I think I'd put them behind our top-3 (Alford, Urena, SRF), and in a tight competiton for the 4/5 spots with Tellez and Guerrero.

On another note, has a Cy favorite through 3/4 of the season ever been sent to the bulllen before?

in mlb history?

are we in uncharted territory here?

Remembering that Battersbox is a pena, not a Republican candidate's debate, I'd like to thank uglyone for the recommendation for Beau's Lug Tread.  Excellent beer.

As for a Cy Young candidate being sent to the bullpen, it's not exactly uncharted territory.  Firstly, innings limits are a relatively new phenomenon in baseball.  Secondly, it isn't much of a leap from a Strasburg shutdown in September to a Sanchez bullpen move in August.  Nonetheless, it's not what I would do.  I must admit that I don't understand why Gibbons would push Sanchez to get through 7 innings time and again (even when he was visibly tiring in the 7th) if the plan was to move him to the bullpen. 

I wouldn't rank the 2 new prospects as top 5 in the Jays system, but that's just my opinion, I know other prospect-watchers disagree.  I'd rank them as top 10, ahead of Harris, but behind Guerrero and Tellez.  I think Harrris is just barely a top 10 prospect for the Jays, maybe falling outside the top 10 now with the arrival of the newcomers.

On another note:  the key to the trade was Pittsburgh's high evaluation of Hutchison.  I did suggest here, a few weeks ago, that Hutchison had greater value to other teams than he did to the Jays.  I suggested that the Jays could trade him away, since they didn't really need him.  Others disagreed.  Later I changed my mind, thinking that the Jays would need Hutch for the rotation as insurance for Estrada and/or Sanchez.  I actually never imagined that the Jays could trade Hutch and get a potential 5th starter (plus 2 prospects) in exchange for him.  But I think I was right that Hutch had more value for other teams than he did for the Jays.
.

Gibbons did not manage Sanchez like he was on an innings limit. He treated him like he treats every starter. Sanchez just happened to go deeper into games because his skill set allowed for it (heavy GB emphasis). Then again, a stricter innings limit by Gibbons probably wouldn't have shaved off much in terms of IP, maybe 10-15, and if their limit for him was 150 (give or take), then he likely wasn't going to pitch much of August regardless.

With the way Gibby uses a bullpen, I'm disappointed in this move. I think Sanchez's arm might actually be safer in the rotation than having to deal with Gibbons warming him up unnecessarily without bringing him in, or pitching him 2 days in a row, or 3 of 4 days, etc. Removing Dickey from the rotation short-term, and then making the change if/when Sanchez started to show signs of breaking down would have likely been the better move, IMO.

I actually wonder if there is a plan re: Sanchez's appearances.  They certainly have loaded up on capable relief arms if indeed they planned all along to put Sanchez there.  I agree that it would be weird if Gibby deploys him the way he did last year, or the way he does Osuna/Cecil, etc., but I am wondering if it's more of a "1 or 2 innings every 2 or 3 days" plan, rather than a typical relief ace.

Ranking prospects is fun, but pretty useless for the most part. JMO.

Regarding my earlier question, it's understandable McGuire's stock has dropped since his power has not developed at all. What I found odd in those comments, only months apart, was one calling his bat speed plus, the other below average. Can't be both.

As for Hutch, someone who shall remain nameless brought up a good point. About 2 years ago Hutch developed a pretty nasty slider that lasted through the end of the 2014 season and then disappeared. If Searage can help Hutch get it back, Hutch has a good chance of being a quality mid-rotation arm once again.

Keeping Sanchez under 99 pitches per start this year (and never more than 106) imo took herculean willpower given that he almost never actually deserved to be pulled, and dominated as much as any pitcher in the game this year.

To be as dominant as he's been and have the manager never once push him into an actual high pitch count is probably pretty rare.

The 2017 team needs a DH, backup MI (Goins, if you want to be cheap), and a backup C. And they`ll have money to spend to do it. Pretty great spot to be in.


I feel much better about the 2017 team than I did at the beginning of the year as well. There aren't many holes in 2017, management seems to be willing to spend and we don't have to rely on signing a lot of FA's who have been difficult to attract here. Would be nice if they could get one of JB or EE for a reasonable term, but the market may think otherwise.

And CF as I posted earlier, I also expected Hutch to be traded as there are enough pitching prospects behind him with potential. Some teams like pitchers with upside that have proven they can pitch in the majors vs. A ball pitchers with bigger long team potential. I am surprised how much they got for him given the two solid prospects as well as Liriano, though I would have preferred no prospects and a less risky starter for 2016, even a rental. Anyway, easy to say when I don't have to make the deal.

"...pitching him 2 days in a row...."

What would be wrong with pitching Sanchez two days in a row, Mike?   Doesn't seem unreasonable, especially if each outing is just an inning.  Relievers are supposed to be capable of this.  Osuna often does it.

"....Removing Dickey from the rotation short-term, and then making the change if/when Sanchez started to show signs of breaking down would have likely been the better move, IMO...."

By the time there are signs of him breaking down, it would be too late to preserve his health.  The whole strategy of the front office, whether we like it or not, has been to avoid the risk of having him even begin to break down.  If there are signs of him breaking down, he shouldn't even be in the bullpen. 

"I must admit that I don't understand why Gibbons would push Sanchez to get through 7 innings time and again (even when he was visibly tiring in the 7th) if the plan was to move him to the bullpen."

I really hope this doesn't become the narrative, because it's simply not true. John Gibbons did not push Sanchez repeatedly, even when he looked tired.

That wasn't quite what I meant, 92-93.  He would push him to get through 7 innings (as he has done with other starters) and occasionally when he was visibly tired.  It wasn't that I disapprove of Gibbons' approach to Sanchez, but rather the incongruity of that approach with management's desire to limit his innings severely.  I would have preferred if management had simply said to Gibbons- he's not on a tight innings limit but try to keep him to 6 innings and skip a start or two until the playoffs.  I believe that you would have suggested something similar. 

Easier said than done, Mike. The bullpen hierarchy was a such a train wreck that Gibbons felt for a very long time his only way to win a game in which his offense didn't mash was to have the SP hand the ball to Osuna.

On another note, has a Cy favorite through 3/4 of the season ever been sent to the bulllen before?

in mlb history?

are we in uncharted territory here?

Yes, definitely in uncharted territory. Jayson Stark of ESPN writes: "According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no starting pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA at least 20 starts into a season has ever turned around to make at least 10 appearances out of the bullpen."

Unfortunately all this reflects the lack of investment in the BP last year. He would very likely have had more starts and innings last year if they had been satisfied with the back end of the pen.

I have heard Drew Hutchison asked for a trade. Blue Jays were in negotiations with the A's for Gray. Asking price was Tellez, Alford, Hutchison and another mid prospect. I liked the deal they made for Drew.

No reports of this; friend in the A's organization.

I can see Hutch as a good NL starting pitcher.

"....He would very likely have had more starts and innings last year if they had been satisfied with the back end of the pen...."

As I recall, there were two reasons for Sanchez staying in the bullpen last season.  First, there was a concern about his health.  He was injured in early June after pitching 8 innings in a game. He didn't have the additional 25 pounds that he added in the 2015-16 off-season.  He didn't seem strong enough to take a full workload in the rotation, and the injury in June was seen as evidence of that.   Second, in his injury rehab, he pitched a maximum of 3.1 innings for Buffalo, then went into the bullpen and never had time to build up his innings to become a starter again.  So I don't think it's necessarily true that the weakness of the Jays bullpen was the only reason why he pitched mostly in the bullpen last year.  There were reasons specific to Sanchez that helped explain why the Jays preferred to keep him in the bullpen.

@PeteAbe
Abad's agent told him the Cubs and Blue Jays were interested in him, too.

Sanchez is not going back to 100 pitches outing once he hits the bullpen.
I don't know what they'll do. There's no real precedent.
Maybe 2 innings every 3 days?

Tonight would be a good night for good Dickey to show up.

There were reasons specific to Sanchez that helped explain why the Jays preferred to keep him in the bullpen.

The only ones I saw in the media were to strengthen the pen, and I just rechecked a bunch of media reports at the time. Now he may still have reinjured himself and never reached a higher innings number, but I'd be surprised if they hadn't tried him again in as an SP if they didn't have the BP challenge. Even Gibbons admitted that Sanchez had been their best starter at the time he got injured. And Hutch had been laying eggs all year.

Hutch explained that the key to his game is fastball control. He has two grips  on his slider, one for fade against righties and one for sink against lefties. He's never actually tried to sink his slider against righties.

Fangraphs calls McGuire the best defensive catcher in the minors.

I guess it could be that Dickey is the one on trial here and the Sanchez-to-bullpen talk, while still a possibility, is just a ruse at the moment and there are no immediate plans to move him. It was only a couple weeks ago that Shatkins seemed to say they would just monitor Sanchez's strength and recovery pattern after each start.

The main objective of the trade from my perspective wass to restock the upper minors (always a Shatkins concern), which will include the two new prospects, as well as Tellez, Alford, Urena, SRF, and Greene next year. Mission accomplished.

I could understand why the Jays wanted Sanchez in the pen prior to 2016. He looked like a reliever. He had one plus pitch that he had trouble commanding as a SP but was able to get away with it as a reliever (FB). His secondary stuff needed work. He had trouble against LHB. His mechanics, according to a lot of stuff that I read, was a major red flag. I thought moving him to the pen in 2015 after he got hurt was justifiable.

However, ever since spring training 2016 he's looked like prime Chris Carpenter. Absolutely no reason to think about him as a reliever ever again with the way he's pitched. Unfortunately, they prefer moving him to the pen rather than skipping his starts, giving him extra rest, etc, to have him in the rotation all season. I may have agreed with moving him to the pen after 150 IP earlier in the year, but now, I really don't see the point. Guys who throw as hard or harder than him get hurt even when they are given gradual IP increases. There's no real answer to keeping him healthy. Might as well roll with him as a SP and use caution rather than put him in the pen and possibly hurt your chances to win in a season where the talent is there to win. On top of that, there's no guarantee Sanchez stays healthy in this situation either.

Good point ayjackson. Sanchez in the pen is no certainty until it happens. Dickey doing so well today helps push it as now Stroman looks like the one of last year - Since July 1st in 6 starts Stroman has a 3.29 ERA which was hurt by that 7 run (6 earned) game after the All-Star Break. Happ & Estrada have both been very good although Estrada is being handled with kid gloves now and I'd probably look at skipping a few of his starts to ensure he is healthy first before moving Sanchez. Dickey had 3 bad games in a row before this one (5+ runs each time) but he is the type who can switch on a dime from ugly to wonderful even in a game let along start to start.

So bottom line is you have 2 guys you can count on being there the rest of the year in Happ & Stroman - both capable of being aces here on out. You have an injury risk in Estrada, a super-variable in Dickey (who will probably work out to league average in the end on average). Then you have a Cy Young contender in Sanchez who they seem to want to move to the pen. Seems insane to me. I'd go to a 6 man rotation from here on out with Liriano added in and go back to 5 man whenever you want to skip a guy. Heck, maybe rotate who skips a start between Estrada & Sanchez to keep Sanchez low in innings if needed with the added benefit of reducing Estrada's stress. Hmm... use a 5 man rotating staff could let both Estrada and Sanchez get 1/2 their starts off here on out (basically on 10 day alternating spots in rotation) so the rotation would be...
Sanchez/Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Dickey, Liriano. Keep the guy they want to cut innings on from getting too many (7-8 max every 10 days) and also keep Estrada from hurting himself. If Dickey or Liriano become too ugly can easily shift back to standard big 5 or if Sanchez shows himself to be tired you can pull him and leave Estrada in.

"Hutch explained that the key to his game is fastball control. He has two grips on his slider, one for fade against righties and one for sink against lefties. He's never actually tried to sink his slider against righties."

You're right that was his explanation. But he did sink it in the most effective stretch of his career. Then he stopped sinking it and he went back to being the same old Hutch.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-good-of-a-weapon-did-drew-hutchison-find/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/did-drew-hutchison-really-change-his-slider/

Sanchez in the pen is no certainty until it happens.

Atkins was on TV talking about how it was going to happen. It would seem strange to be so openly deliberate if behind the scenes he was not sure yet. But who knows?

He did say that he wanted Sanchez to be able to pitch in game 7 of the World Series, or game 4, he corrected himself (presuming the Jays would not waste time losing any WS games). He didn't say if this would be as a starter or a reliever.

Unless I am mistaken, the plan seems now to be to move Sanchez to the bullpen for the balance of the season. And maybe this was always the plan. For no good reason, I was under the impression that the intended sojourn to the pen was going to be to get some "rest" and keep the innings down before returning to the rotation to close out the year. Was I the only one who was thinking this?

It has been made clear that once Sanchez has been transitioned to pen that he will NOT return to the starting rotation at any time in 2016.

At this juncture, unless a team feels like he is a MLB-capable reliever worth a big league salary and a roster spot, he's actually worth less than a AAAA guy like LeBlanc or Mesa. Of course, next week if he gets released, he goes back to being a low-cost, low upside asset again that can be signed to a minor-league deal and sent down. Even if the Jays paid the rest of his MLB salary in a trade, he still can't be reassigned and used as a AAA depth so you have to find a team willing to keep him on the 25-man.

The idea for the Jays would be to find a team that would take Morales just that. Say the Yankees has already given up this season, trade Mesa and Morales for a non-listed prospecty. I do not know if an analogy works but in Moneyball (chapter 9), the trading desk: could the Jays get a Garcia and cash in a trade that sent M & M away ?
-------

About Sanchez, is C.J. Wilson a good analogy in being assigned a starter-reliever-starter ?

is C.J. Wilson a good analogy in being assigned a starter-reliever-starter ?

Not really. Wilson was always a starter in the minors. As a rookie, he made his debut and his first few appearances in relief after his June callup. . He then spent about a month in the rotation, before finishing the season in the pen. He pitched exclusively in relief for the next four years (2006-2009). He became a full-time starter in 2010. He hasn't made a single relief appearance since 2009.

David Wells might actually be better. He was a starter in the minors, made the majors to stay as a reliever in September 1987, moved into the rotation in May 1990, moved back to the bullpen in September 1991. Two back-to-back seasons where he changed roles in mid-season, anyway. As opposed to guys who were kind of always regarded as swingmen, like John Cerutti or Carlos Villanueva.

Shapiro has decided its a good idea to publicly tell us that he has the freedom to be a player in post-deadline trade market - i.e. the one where overpay contracts get moved.

Would be strange of him to say that if he doesn't mean to be active.

It's good, shows that Rogers is willing to put some financial muscle behind Shapiro and that they're not being too constrained by payroll. Likely a good sign that they resign one of the 3 pending FA in the offseason too. (I'm hoping for EE)

I wonder if the Liriano deal could have been done this month, rather than rushed in at the deadline. Hard to see anyone claiming him on waivers and was Hutch up or down at the time?

It doesn't matter where Hutchison was - he was on the 40 man, so he would have had to pass through trade waivers, as would Harold Ramirez. So while Liriano would presumably clear waivers, those two likely wouldn't. Given Pittsburgh isn't too-too far behind the second wild card spot, getting Hutchison for the rest of the year (as opposed to playing the PTBNL game) was probably quite important.

Thanks for the clarification, Spiffy.

Ken Rosenthal hears that the Jays were "relentless" in their pursuit of Rich Hill before the Aug. 1 deadline. Makes sense.

Frankly, I am glad that we did not get Hill. Price way too high for a player with injury issues. What the Dodgers paid was totally insane.

Additional 'cost' to the trades...

Ben Rowan has now gone to the Brewers. Claimed off waivers.

Highly unlikely that Rowan would ever have pitched for Jays.

Six-Man Rotation for now.

The pirates got Nova from the Yankees to replace Liriano and Hutchison just changed IL team.

It just looks like a salary dump move in which the Blue Jays bought one year of Liriano and 2 interesting prospects.
Liriano seems to have been a great clubhouse guy in Pittsburgh.

The pirates got Nova from the Yankees

Did you catch the interview where Liriano was excited that his boyhood friend, Nova, was joining the Pirates, only to soon thereafter learn that he himself was leaving the Pirates?