the last MLB team to have never visited every other MLB city before.

That's darn peculiar. I wonder what was the last one before San Diego at Toronto.

If only MLB would just ban breaking balls, Smoak would be a superstar.

If that's it for Sanchez, he's now 2nd in ERA in the AL behind only Wright - but of course, the knuckleballer has 16 unearned runs that get ignored by era.

he's also top 5 in most other categories.

we might be looking at the current Cy favorite.

I always like to say that baseball is inexhaustible, and every time you go to the park you will see something you've never seen before.

I've never seen a guy sit on first base to record the out.

At the major league level, I should probably add.

What the he'll was he doing that he even had to sit on the base? Has he never covered first base in his life?

Or maybe he misunderstood what it means to cover first base?

Or maybe he forgot he was a Padre and thought he was an Ass-tro.

‏@Ken_Rosenthal Sources: #BlueJays front-runners for the #Padres’ Melvin Upton Jr. #Orioles, #Indians remain involved in talks.

I guess Bautista (or Saunders) at DH for the stretch run is the objective if this goes through.

Jonah Keri was stumping for that move for that reason on the Sportsnet pregame show. It's in the true.

what do folks think Jays are offering for Upton. I will go with Pompey and Storen which seems to best what I have heard coming from Baltimore.

I can't say I would be all that excited about acquiring Upton, although he would provide some nice depth/speed/versatility for the stretch run. Shapiro does love players who are controllable on short-term contracts, so I can see the attraction. I guess he would slot in as a corner OF if/when Saunders and Bautista depart as free agents.

It might also be possible that if Upton acquired, Saunders or Bautista could be moved in a separate trade.

I'm calling Pillar and prospects for a #2/3 SP with control getting done. Pompey, Upton and (Bautista?) man the outfield in 2017.

Don't think there is any chance that happens.

This is a little better than the usual 100 game mark record.

Yes. Yes it is.

Baltimore was offering Ubaldo for Upton...even just Storen is an upgrade from that. I also can't see the Jays trading Pompey given the lack of depth in the outfield going forward. Atkins/Shapiro much prefer cheap depth.

...although I'd give up a Hollon or Borucki type prospect to make it work.

What the Jays or anyone else offer for Upton depends significantly on whether the Padres pay any of the remaining contract - I am hoping the Jays budget allow them to take the entire contract and pay less talent but I'm not optimistic.

I am also curious as to why the jays just haven't gone back to the well and use some of the live arms form the lower minors to try and get some stability in the back of the bullpen? It worked with Osuna and Sanchez so why not try a SRF or even a Perdomo.

I think even Hutch might help this team out of the pen right now.

Hutch has to remain stretched in case of an injury to a starter. Can't put him in pen. I am not sure if any pen help is needed. I would expect minor deal like Grill that involves a prospect below our top 30 or even waiver claims as teams make roster moves in the next week. Worley is certainly working out for Orioles.

What the Jays or anyone else offer for Upton depends significantly on whether the Padres pay any of the remaining contract - I am hoping the Jays budget allow them to take the entire contract and pay less talent but I'm not optimistic.

I sure hope the Jays don't take on the entire contract. In fact, I have no interest in Upton unless he's basically free in terms of both contract and prospect capital

Spending 16 million of next year's budget on Upton when you already have so many holes to fill would be insane

If the Jays get Upton - How about Bautista to the Astros.

I doubt Bautista's going anywhere. He has 10/5 rights for one, and two I think it would really piss off the team.

I was wondering though if Saunders might be traded. I don't really see much point in acquiring a LF otherwise, unless they just want a top quality backup who can play when Saunders / Bautista play DH. If those guys play DH a lot though then Encarnacion has to play first, which is fine by me (he's actually been looking pretty good in the field, at least to the eye test) but they just signed Smoak to that weird contract and when would he ever play in that scenario?

I was wondering though if Saunders might be traded. I don't really see much point in acquiring a LF otherwise, unless they just want a top quality backup who can play when Saunders / Bautista play DH.

It's hard to see a scenario where Saunders gets traded unless it's a convoluted 3-team deal. He's a free agent so no non-contending team is going to want him. And the Jays will lose a draft pick/qualifying offer if they trade him now, so the return would have to be great

It only really makes sense to trade Saunders for a 2/3 SP or a shutdown RP. And no contender is going to trade you either of those

Fair point. What if... Upton for Smoak and a B prospect? Upton is going to make like 16m next season, which is more than he's worth. Smoak kind of sucks but comes cheap and could be flipped for a good return if he does break out. Smoak signed the deal knowing that he might be traded. A prospect of the B variety is thrown in to make things more enticing.

I'm probably dreaming. I just want Smoak off this team.

Upton lands 'nice to have' signed for 2017 so the outfield wouldn't be Pillar and pray. Not doing wow by any stretch but if the Jay's braintrust thinks they can push him to the next level even for only a season then he would be very nice. Cost appears low. Guess we'll see soon

argh.

we don't trade away great players when trying to win a world series. makes no sense.

but Upton would be a decent add if it just means taking his contract. but If they cheap out and give up pompey instead of cash then they suck.

I like the smoak for upton idea, eudaimon.

Bautista and Sanchez to Washington for Gio Gonzalez and Bryce Harper.

Of course San Diego would have to then trade Wil Myers for that to make any sense. That's not out of the question, though.

why do people keep suggesting it's possible that we trade major league talent, integral to our current wild card-bound team, for value next year? 

It ain't happening, as much as a bunch of armchair GMs might think it makes sense. 

I don't see the FO doing anything big - something creative perhaps - but to suggest selling?  what's the precedent for thinking this is something that happens?

"why do people keep suggesting it's possible that we trade major league talent, integral to our current wild card-bound team, for value next year?"

I agree. It won't happen unless it's a swap of major league talent. The Jays are a very good team but don't have a lot of depth so that sort of swap doesn't make a lot of sense. (Any trade of real major league talent opens up another hole.)

Upton makes sense as he can improve the Jays this year and next without likely costing all that much in terms of talent. Even if they don't make that move, it will be the type of move the Jays make. Short and medium term help without giving up much in the way of prospects.

Upton's salary next year is less than this year's QO.
If you don't give away much talent for him you solve half of next year's outfield need and there's a chance of picking up another draft pick depending on what the next collective agreement looks like.

QO for Saunders, Bautista and Encarnation and they need to resign at least one of those guys.

17M for league average pitching is too much, especially when the other 4 starters are better than that and cost less.

It makes more sense to roll with Hutch, stretch Biagini in AAA to cover for injuries and use the remaining cash to sign a DH.

Does Goins has any trade value?

Rosenthal says the Jays have reached a deal to acquire Melvin Upton for an A-league prospect. 

Upton will be a useful player.  Does this mean that Saunders becomes largely a DH?  (He's the worst defender of the three outfielders, although I guess Bautista will also spend some time at DH.)   If so, Encarnacion moves to 1B much more often, and Smoak becomes a rather expensive bench player. 

I assume this also keeps Goins and Pompey in the minors as injury insurance.  Pompey's time is September (and next year).

Upton, incidentally, has a .791 OPS in 55 games at Rogers stadium.   I guess the Jays are counting on him boosting his offensive performance with the move to Toronto. 

Rosenthal saying it's a "Class A prospect" for Upton, likely finalized today, but financial terms are not known. I'd have to see who the prospect is and how much cash the Padres are on the hook for before I pass judgment on the trade itself.

As far as Upton, it's a marginal improvement for 2016, and adds some OF depth for 2017 when there's Pillar, Pompey, and not much else. He's revived his career in SD. About a league average offensive player with plus speed and solid defense. He has a DRS of 9 in LF this season (Saunders is at -6) and he can play some CF as well, so he'll have value. They can play him everyday in LF/RF (while alternating Bautista and Saunders at DH) and hope the plus defense/speed provides the upgrade, or platoon him. Either way, good on management for trying to add incremental value where they can to take advantage of their 2016 window. Now let's hope the prospect isn't someone decent.

Although, the Smoak extension looks even worse now. The team's best lineup if this trade happens involves Smoak glued to the bench. Just an unnecessary extension.

Unnecessary for 2016, perhaps (although a decent security blanket if you suffer any injuries to an OF or Edwin), but probably a lot more necessary for 2017.  I still don't understand why everyone was so upset over locking in a league average hitter with okay defence to a $4m/year contract.  That's chump change on the FA market, and it gives security to Smoak which should hopefully improve his performance.  This is two different regimes that have bought in on Smoak now.  Perhaps they see more than the consensus.

They were going to have Smoak in 2016 regardless of whether they made a trade like this (Upton). There was no need to lock him up for 2017-18, though.

This coming from someone who was optimistic that Smoak could be a pretty decent player when he was acquired due to his skill set, but he's been the same old guy in 2015 and 2016 except for a power surge in 2015 that hasn't followed him this season. He's pretty much 2013 Smoak now except older, and after a pretty good defensive season at 1B in 2015 (DRS of 4), he's been pretty bad this season (-5). At 30, the clock is ticking on the "late bloomer" tag.

He isn't an albatross at $4M per or anything, but not someone you sign to an extension mid-season for fear of losing him. But I can totally see why management (AA's and this one) liked him. It's just that some times players with intriguing skills don't pan out. Smoak is getting to that point, though not entirely impossible for him to improve.

dammit.

i'm desperately hoping "Class A" means lasf year's 1st round pick Harris.

or at worst please make it Greene.

Doesn't Canada have any reporters who can find out who the prospect is? Not many scoops coming from north of the border.

"The team's best lineup if this trade happens involves Smoak glued to the bench"

true even if the trade doesn't happen.

Another factor could be that Upton is hitting .282/.337/.576 vs LHP this year. He was pretty bad against them in the 3 years prior, though.

oh right Class A probably just refers to level.

Not much on Lansing i'd fret about losing, other than Maese.

but then that could mean Dunedin too, which would be more worrying.

I think with this trade it becomes likelier that the Jays trade for a #2/3 starting pitcher and they'll have to give up talent for that.

Stroman, Estrada, Happ...don't think that would be enough for the playoffs.

Breaking: Padres are taking on a lot of Uptons contract, so definitely a decent prospect going the other way.

As long as Urena, Guerrero, Reid Foley, Greene,Alford aren't moving I'm fine.

sounds like the padres are paying most of his salary so this prospect might sting a bit.

I'm going to guess it will be Perdomo, but I'm basing that off nothing.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that they expect to lose at least 2 of Jose/Edwin/Saunders, so having another 1B option on the roster for 2017 always felt like a tidy piece of business to me, especially for that rate.  And if they are now pushing him more towards the bench for the rest of this year, that's a bit easier sell to Smoak if you have him locked up already.  His job is not in jeopardy, which means he shouldn't have to press at the plate when he IS in the lineup the rest of the year.

Upton is a very solid acquisition - allows team not only to rest outfielders more, better late innings defense,this year has been good against LHP, good pinch-runner and decent hedge for next year - also moving to the small AL east parks should increase Upton's power production - Also, with Jay Bruce's bounce back season, the Reds have probably upped his pricetag.

Perdomo pitched last night, for what it's worth.

So is it goodbye Zeke?

Upton is an improvement on Carrera (who is at .179/.279/.276 in July), but the Jays don't really need another right-handed hitting power bat. I suppose that he'll be a starting outfielder in 2017 when everybody else is gone.

I hope that the Jays trade for another relief pitcher. They won't make it all the way with only two reliable bullpen arms.

Speaking of the bullpen: I was at last night's game, and I don't recall whether I've actually ever seen a fifth-deck home run in person before. It was majestic, like a waterfall or a double rainbow.

"...So is it goodbye Zeke?..."

In the short-term, it's probably just "goodbye 8-man bullpen."  Even with Upton on the team, Carrera still has some value as a pinch-runner and pinch-hitter and late-inning replacement for Saunders or Bautista when they're in the outfield.  I agree that Upton does all of those things too -- but not when he's in the starting lineup, which will be most of the time.  And obviously they don't use Smoak as a pinch-runner, so Carrera still has some value.  As a veteran, he can sit on the bench, whereas someone like Pompey needs to be playing every day.  Carrera is out of options, so the Jays lose him if they try to demote him.  I think he stays, for now anyway.

Does anyone have thoughts on Upton's abilities in CF?   Obviously he's not playing much there any more, but can he occasionally replace Pillar?  The Jays might feel that:  1) they don't necessarily want Pillar in the lineup every day, despite his stellar defence;  2) In the event that Pillar gets injured, there's no obvious replacement on the major-league roster.

Fangraphs has Upton with a negative defensive WAR this year, so I'm assuming that he's not an adequate CF except in emergencies.  Anyone have any information to the contrary?

If all this does is keep Goins off the team and Upton away from Baltimore, it's a decent move.

Morosi is probably accurate in saying that the Jays won't sign 2 out of the three (Bautista/Edwin/Saunders) and instead will focus on resigning Josh Donaldson or trade him before next season if he doesn't sign long term.

Me, I have little interest in Saunders and would prefer Bautista if his price comes down. Forget about Edwin with the year he has had.

Upton has a negative dWAR because of the LF positional adjustment, looking at stats isn't really helpful here.

According to Jays Journal, Rosenthal thinks prospect may be a member of the Lansing Lugnuts. If so, I will not be happy if it's Maese though I doubt that it is. As earlier suggested, it could be Perdomo, or even Pentecost or Borucki. Laprise . Heidt and Kelly are also playing well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/i-dont-mean-to-alarm-you-but-melvin-upton-jr-is-back/

Article from July 6th on Upton's resurgence.

My take on Melvin Upton Jr.

For 2016, he's a useful player to platoon in left-field with Saunders.  Against left-handers, Saunders DHs and Encarnacion plays first base.  He can also give Bautista occasional days off or DHing against RH pitchers.  But his utility is limited because his skills are a duplication of the skills already present on the club.  The club is already vulnerable to shut-down RH relief- as the 2015 series with Kansas City illustrated. They still need Pompey at least by the end of August so he is on the playoff roster.

He is much more valuable to the Jays in 2017 provided he can (at least) maintain his performance level.  The club is likely to need another OF and Upton probably has the arm to play RF serviceably well.  There are some warning signs offensively though.  His contact rate on pitches in the zone is way down.  He's made up for it in 2016 by increasing his HR/FB rate to 19%.  He's had a strange career so far, and I really have no idea how he might respond to a move from PETCO to the RC.  A mid-career power surge is certainly possible. 

As for the merits of the trade, it depends on who is going back and the financial aspect.

hansel Rodriguez

he actually snuck into my top 20 but i'm fine with that price

A couple more thoughts on Carrera:

Carrera has hit better as a part-timer than he did as a full-timer (after Bautista's injury).  His OPS was .841 before the Bautista injury; his OPS was .622 after the Bautista injury.  Last year as a part-timer his OPS was .693 which was similarly better than his record as a full-timer after Bautista's injury.  It suggests that he could still have value as a pinch-hitter and bench player.

Second, consider Smoak's record since June 1:  his OPS has fallen to .664.  And that's largely as the starting 1B (except against NL teams and a few other exceptions).  I wouldn't want to rely on Smoak as the main pinch-hitter for the rest of this season. The Jays have even put Barney in LF to get his bat into the lineup ahead of Smoak.  Under those circumstances, Carrera could be a good bench player:  a veteran who can step into the lineup as a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner, and probably a better option than any other veteran in the system.  (Recall that the Jays didn't get very good hitting production from other bench players such as Ceciliani, Burns, Dominguez or Lake.) 

To clarify my last post, I meant that Smoak's OPS since June 1 has been .664.   His season OPS is obviously much better (.748) but mostly because of his hot start.

Hansel Rodriguez is in Rookie ball. Whatever. 

I'll wait for confirmation.

To acquire Upton and some form of salary relief, while not losing any of the top prospects in Dunedin or Lansing, is a good trade.

Yeah. Rodriguez is a perfectly fine price for both sides. I'll be interested to see how much $$ 'a lot' is.

I'm not that familiar with Hansel given how low he is in the minors, but that seems pretty reasonable, especially if the Padres are eating up a large chunk of Upton's remaining contract (as it has been reported).

I don't know how much I can separate out my memories of Upton the 3ish WAR player from the Upton the Jays are going to receive. I'm sure that colors it, but boy it'd be nice to see him play close to that level. Then again we could get the ATL version of Upton (which I suspect most of us saw very little of).

The Jays are apparently interested in Cashner as a reliever.  That would work for me too if the price is right.

But his utility is limited because his skills are a duplication of the skills already present on the club.... They still need Pompey at least by the end of August so he is on the playoff roster.

Pompey is eligible for the playoffs as long as he's in the organization on August 31st -- he doesn't need to be on the ML roster (recall that Raul Mondesi Jr. made major league debut during the World Series last year).

And while I agree that Upton's offensive skills are a "duplication" -- I do think he is a significant improvement to our corner outfield defense - I see him as a "plus" defender that can frequently replace Saunders or Bautista (both "minus" defenders by my eyes). I expect to see him start in LF against LHP and probably 2-3 other times per week to allow Saunders & Bautista to DH and Pillar to have a rest.

Depending on the cost, I'd be more interested in Brandon Maurer if he can be pried loose. He's been dynamite lately, with stuff to match. Also, he has 3 years left of control beyond this one.

I like this trade. The Jays didn't have to give up anyone big, or anyone close to the Majors, and they don't even have to pay 100% of Upton's contract. Nice.

I just hope Upton doesn't have to spend much time in CF. He's sure not the defender he was five years ago, at least not according to BaseballReference.com. He looks pretty good in left, though.

When I heard the Jays were looking at Upton, I wasn't a fan.

But this is a good trade. Hansel is a long shot at beat and the Padres are paying most of the money? What was in this deal for San Diego?

The question is, how will Toronto use him?

The first article I read said he would be taking time from Pillar, and that makes zero sense. That is the kind of comment from someone who just looks at batting statistics.

If this instead takes time away from Smoak, with EE playing first with Jose and Saunders getting some DH time with Upton playing the OF, this works all around.

And to the people that think this leads to a trade of Bautista or Saunders, there is pretty much 0% chance of that. (Especially Bautista.)

Shi Davidi confirms on twitter that Hansel Rodriguez is going to the Padres in the Upton deal.  Gretel has always liked San Diego, so this should work out fine.

The timing of talent arrival is, for me, the interesting part of this deal.  Rodriguez is a 19 year old in Bluefield, who is at least 3 years away (if all goes well for him). At that level, he's a good prospect but not a great one. The Blue Jays are likely to have some extra picks in the 2017 draft and do have a boatload of pitching prospects already in A ball.  They had a definite OF need for 2017 (at least).  This deal buys them some time. 

Without knowing the precise financial details, I still give a thumbs up. 

It seems like a decent trade, though with this addition the Smoak extension irritates me even more. Maybe more moves are coming, or maybe they can make the rare move of DFAing the guy the just extended so they can stash him in AAA.

I don't really understand the rationale for the extension. Some say it's good for 2017, but it just reduces our flexibility in 2016... a year we'll ideally make the playoffs. More valuable to the team right now (especially now with Upton) would be a pinch runner, another relief pitcher (why not?), or even Ryan Goins.

When I heard the Jays were looking at Upton, I wasn't a fan.

But this is a good trade.

Completely agreed - once I realized it wasn't one of our top 10 prospects and SD was paying a good chunk of the salary.  I forget who's been posting that the Jays will only make Jason Grilli type deals, but props to that poster.

Rodriguez is not nothing - a 19 year old touted international signing who can hit 98 - but talented kids in A ball happen to be an organizational asset. 

I do hope that this isn't 'writing on the wall' for Edwin / Jose - I want one of those guys back to DH next year.  If the plan is to see more of Edwin at 1b, the team might ironically be raising Edwin's asking price by convincing national league teams he can handle regular play at 1st. 

I'd prefer Upton start in LF or RF most of the time (depending on which of Bautista or Saunders is at DH on that particular day). His splits are better against LHP the past two seasons, especially this season, but I think the defense/speed combo could offset some of the issues he has against RHP in terms of the total value he brings in comparison to the alternative of Smoak at 1B and Bautista/Saunders in the corners. Smoak is a platoon 1B who is average against RHP and is not good defensively (at least this season) so it's not like he brings a huge advantage there.

The biggest issue is whether Edwin can stay healthy playing 1B everyday, or close to everyday.

"Second, consider Smoak's record since June 1: his OPS has fallen to .664. And that's largely as the starting 1B (except against NL teams and a few other exceptions). I wouldn't want to rely on Smoak as the main pinch-hitter for the rest of this season. "

this habit you have of looking at tiny streaks is only confusing your argumemts imo.

The return for Upton seems especially modest. The Jays must be picking up a lot of the money here (probably the money they would have spent if the Jay Bruce trade didn't fall apart). Which is perfectly fine - I'd rather keep good prospects than save money.

Upton seems to provide the team with a lot of flexibility and injury protection. I guess if there's one concern for me it's that EE is likely to play more in the field now (downgrading defense and increasing injury risk) as Upton will push Bautista or Saunders to DH more.

Plus, with 2 key free agents it's a hedge for 2017.

Overall, I like it - it's a nice, modest upgrade.

"I don't know how much I can separate out my memories of Upton the 3ish WAR player from the Upton the Jays are going to receive. I'm sure that colors it, but boy it'd be nice to see him play close to that level. Then again we could get the ATL version of Upton (which I suspect most of us saw very little of)."

to be fair he has produced at a 3ish war level the past couple years, but yeah that's still not the 4-5sar type player he was when he broke into the league.

Here is the fangraphs' view of the race, based on season-to-date statistics.  Essentially, it's a coin-flip between 3 teams in the AL East with one and possibly two making it as wild-card teams. 

It could be very wild at the end.  I think that the Mariners and Astros are considerably better clubs than the Rangers, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if there are many teams right around 90 wins.  Better to shoot for 96, says Captain Obvious.

Heyman says Padres are paying all but 5M of Upton's remaining contract.

Jon Heyman reports that the Padres are eating $17 million of Upton's $22 million salary.  If so, two thumbs up for the trade. 

Per Heyman, the Jays are paying only $5M of Upton's remaining contract, while the Padres cover the rest ($17M).

Good deal.

"....this habit you have of looking at tiny streaks is only confusing your argumemts imo...."

You think Smoak looks a lot better if we consider his career stats instead?  A career OPS of .704 doesn't scream "everyday 1B on a playoff team."

Smoak's career numbers also don't make the argument that he's the ideal pinch-hitter for the Jays this year either, especially when he can't play anywhere except one position.  And the "stadium benefit" that he got from departing Seattle has declined significantly this year.

Wasn't enthused about Upton when these talks started. Getting him as basically a 3M/yr player (2M for the balance of this year, 3M next year) is something I can get on board with.

The Jays now won't have the burden of feeling they have to play a big sunk cost salary as both Atlanta and SD did. The Jays can treat Upton like the low-cost player he is. (I mean, they could have used him that way while paying him 10M a year, but now they won't have that burden of succumbing to the sunk cost fallacy.)

I guess Junior Lake shuffles off to Buffalo?

If the Jays are only paying 5m for Upton through the end of 2017, should I be worried about high Rodriguez's ceiling must be? This seems like a fantastic trade.

As one poster noted above, a major feature of the deal is that Upton hits left handed pitching. The Jays sorely need someone to do that. They currently have a losing record in games started by a left-hander.

Holy cow, what I thought was a good trade for the Jays now looks like straight-up highway robbery. I never thought much of A.J. Preller before this, but now I'm pretty close to being convinced that he has no business as the GM of an MLB franchise. Great job by Shapiro/Atkins on this deal.

For the record, Smoak and EE havd graded out fairly similarly defensively at 1B the past few years.

2016

Edwin: -2.2uzr/150, +0.0drs/150
Smoak: -3.8uzr/150, -12.3drs/150

2015-2016

Edwin: +2.0uzr/150, +0.0drs/150
Smoak: +0.7uzr/150, -1.1drs/150

2014-2016

Edwin: -2.6uzr/150, -4.7drs/150
Smoak: +0.7uzr/150, -3.7drs/150

We really don't need to worry about a downgrade defensively at 1B.

In fact, these stats probably support the eye test telling me EE has really grown into the position defensively.

"...I guess Junior Lake shuffles off to Buffalo?..."

Lake was DFA'd yesterday to make room for Bautista.   I'm guessing Tepera is optioned to Buffalo today, but we'll find out soon.

I guess Junior Lake shuffles off to Buffalo?

Lake was already DFA'ed to make room for Bautista.

At this point, Carerra should probably be worried about his ML job, at least with the Jays.

Looks like I owe you a Coke, CF. :)

In fact, these stats probably support the eye test telling me EE has really grown into the position defensively.

Agreed. I think the bigger concern is for Encarnacion's health as a mostly-full-time 1B.

Parker, I was only micro-seconds ahead of you on that post....   But the real wagering question is whether I'm right to predict Tepera being demoted rather than Carrera, because I certainly admit that there's a possibility that the Jays will decide 5 outfielders is too many.   I still think they want to keep Carrera, but I could be wrong.  We'll know very soon.

"If the Jays are only paying 5m for Upton through the end of 2017, should I be worried about high Rodriguez's ceiling must be? This seems like a fantastic trade."

He's a real prospect, let's not kid ourselves. Fairly highly touted IFA who throws high 90s with control and with promising secondary stuff. Solid but not spectacular stats ao far at each level, age appropriate each time.

He could easily pop up like castro/rios/tinoco/etc., and could have challenged for top 10 in the system with a good year.

that being said he doesn't really have any true plus pitch yet and his numbers are only ok....and losing a castro/rios/tinoco isn't really a huge deal either.

"You think Smoak looks a lot better if we consider his career stats instead? A career OPS of .704 doesn't scream "everyday 1B on a playoff team.""

pretty much league average for his career and this year. switch hitter to boot. perfectly decent pinch hitter. that's a good role for him.

why we gave a real money multi year for that is a different question.

I'm not in the camp that sees Smoak as a top notch defender (as the broadcast crew portrays him), but I do believe he scoops low throws better than Encarnacion and that's something that I don't think would show up in any metrics. Still, subjectively the defensive gap between Smoak and EE does not seem huge. And Smoak is not hitting so well that he is forcing his way into the lineup.

As Mike suggested, an Upton/Smoak platoon could be the net result of this acquisition. And if Upton has any chops left in CF, he could give Pillar the occasional rest.

Perhaps they extended Smoak because they were looking for a defensive upgrade in the OF, but also want and believe in him for the long-term, and didn't want to piss him off by reducing him to a spare part in 2016.

Perhaps its because I remember Upton from his Tampa days, but I am less enthusiastic about this trade. I understand the marginal utility of having Upton in place for the balance of this year. However in 2017 I would hope for more production from a left fielder. I also view this as a higher risk deal because of Upton's history.

Really interesting move for both years. In 2017 they now have 2 of 3 outfielders for $4mm with Pompey as back up.  With all the FA contracts coming off the books, there is no question they have enough money for one of Bautista or EE...or may be both...just a question of whether term and dollars will make sense to the FO.

I wonder if Hutchison is in the mix as part of a package for the right short term or two year pitching deal.

Great trade. Depth for this year and next without giving up anything of note . Hansel Rodriguez is raw but has a live arm in Rookie ball. There are a ton of guys like that. He's not a top prospect or even a very good prospect. He could develop into something but the chances are slim.

Upton used to be very good. He turned 23 Aug 21,2007 and had a fantastic year for TB. He is not old, 32 on Aug 21.

The rest of this year and next year is a chance for him to regain some of his old form and get a nice contract. Good incentive.

He now plays for a winning team. Next year's team should have JD, Martin and Tulo unless someone is traded. They have "character" if that applies in baseball. All young veterans.

However in 2017 I would hope for more production from a left fielder.

I agree. I like Upton as a 4th outfielder who gets to play a little more than a 4th outfielder. But I would not be thrilled to see him as a starting outfielder in next year's lineup.

I'm wondering why the Padres made this trade, since they're only saving $5-million (and a lot of teams would have taken Upton off their hands for $5-million).  Perhaps they rate Rodriguez higher than most of us.  He had 6 excellent starts for Bluefield this season.  Maybe the Padres scouted those games carefully and convinced themselves that Rodriguez is a future star.  That's the only explanation that I can think of. 

Preller screwed up with his win now 2 off seasons ago, but this trade is fair for both sides.

One can reasonably assume teams weren't offering substantial value for Upton, nor should they.

Keeping him made no sense. They save $5 million and get a marginal prospect to boot.

Upton has some value for a contending team, especially one currently playing 2 outfielders with below replacement level defensive skills.

Upton Last 2yrs:

602pa, .331babip, 104wrc+, +6.1bsr, +1.5def, 3.1fwar, 3.4bwar, 3.5awar/650

vLHP: 177pa, 135wrc+
vRHP: 425pa, 91wrc+

San Diego Upton is a very solid player. Above average bat wi5h great baserunning and above average defense. Better vLHP but still good enough to play vRHP, and his overall numbers aren't inflated by any platoon usage protection. But this is likely the best case scenario for us. Can't see much more upside at this point.

And there is real downside here - Atlanta Upton was an unplayable disaster. Getting that player is still a possibility. Our Aaron Hill was also having a nice bounce back season in the comfy confines of the NL basement, but has had a rude awakening coming back to the best division in baseball. Hopefully that doesn't happen with BJ but we can't rule it out.

The last two deals by Atkins have had the other team eat up a large chunk of the player's salary. According to Cot's, the Braves are "paying $2.175M of $2,371,585 remaining in 2016 salary" in the Grilli trade, and now the Padres are paying $17M of the remaining $22M in the Upton deal. Solid incremental improvement on a "budget" without trading top prospects, and both deals have 2017 implications (team option for Grilli and one more season of control for Upton).

If they can add a SP or RP in the same mold between now and Monday, that would be pretty impressive.

But the real wagering question is whether I'm right to predict Tepera being demoted rather than Carrera, because I certainly admit that there's a possibility that the Jays will decide 5 outfielders is too many. I still think they want to keep Carrera, but I could be wrong. We'll know very soon.

You're almost certainly right about a Tepera demotion, CF. He's got options remaining, whereas Zeke would have to be exposed to waivers. I don't have any special love for either one, but when you can send down either Bo Schultz, who throws a straight (but admittedly 100mph) fastball with no secondary pitches, or 8th bullpen arm Ryan Tepera, without any risk of losing either one... when the option is to take a chance on losing Carrera for good, it seems like a no-brainer. Especially after they just DFA'ed their next-best outfield depth in Junior Lake.

There's merit to the idea posted above that the Jays might DFA Smoak and send him to Buffalo, as he's the most expendable bat right now if Encarnacion is going to spend more time at 1B. I'm certainly more in favor of a less-overcrowded bullpen, but Smoak would likely be a safe demotion based on the guaranteed money the Jays just gave him.

As I said I like this trade, But people seem to be selling Rodriguez short - he is a nice get for the Padres - a guy you can dream on with good upside - could be ready sometime in 2019 when the Padres may be ready to compete. I think the market for Upton was weak - Going to be interested to see what the Reds get for Bruce - might not get an offer they like.

Up until halfway through this season, the Padres were trying to compete NOW. ;)

I didn't even remember Hansel Rodriguez.

The Padres would rather pay 17M for H-Rod than end up with  Ubaldo Jimenez.
I can't really fault them on that.

Hansel might turn out to be good. Hard to really tell given his age and current level. Throws hard but needs work. Some times you will hit on those types, most times you won't, but he's pretty much a lottery ticket at this point. It's all projection. With that said, if he was the best the Padres could get for Upton, then it was probably worth it for them. Also a reasonable risk for the Jays. They really could not afford to trade any of their top prospects (unless it was for a cost controlled star) and needed to upgrade the roster to take advantage of their 2016 opportunity.

I wasn't really fearing Upton regressing back to the Atlanta days, but it's definitely possible. Someone with his career path is difficult to predict. I think he's a very good 4th OF option and a reasonable LF option if he can maintain an average wRC+ with plus speed/defense.

I agree. I like Upton as a 4th outfielder who gets to play a little more than a 4th outfielder. But I would not be thrilled to see him as a starting outfielder in next year's lineup.

When you factor in defence and baserunning, his expectation in the outfield is probably about the same as Saunders'. The projection systems don't see it quite that way because they regress quite heavily Saunders' defensive decline in 2016, but we have an advantage.  We know that Saunders had quite a significant knee injury which has obviously limited his mobility.

It's natural for us (aged, seasoned- what do late middle age people have in common with steak anyways) to see a corner outfielder as this powerful offensive force.  We imagine the pure offensive dynamo (Williams/Musial), the slugger (Babe Ruth/Reggie Jackson) or the leadoff hitter (Henderson/Raines).  On a club that has Tulowitzki, Donaldson and Travis at the key defensive positions in the infield, it's probably not a realistic way to think of a club.  If the club gets league average performance from its right-fielder at an excellent price and left-fielder (hello Mr. Pompey), it ought to be just fine. 

Hansel Rodriguez might contribute at the ML level three or five years from now, and he might even be an above-average SP. Or, he might not ever make it to the Majors. In return for him, along with a ridiculous level of salary relief prorated by his career numbers, the Jays got the guy with the second-best power/speed index in the NL this year. The only guy ahead of him is Wil Meyers. I love prospect pr0n as much as anyone, but Melvin is a legitimate MLB asset at an almost-unbelievable financial commitment based on his career numbers.

Also, he kind of clobbers the ball in Skydome.

Preller tried to acquire Gretel in the deal as well, but Atkins steadfastly refused.

yeah Mike I agree with all of that. and i would be all on aboard with an all-D pillar/upton/Pompey outfield next year if it means we bring back joey and EE.

the idea of needing power hitting OF is overrated, especially when you have Tulo/Travis/Martin at the tough D positions.

I would really like to know the Jays prospect whose physical cost the Jay Bruce trade to collapse

I agree with others that:
- this provides a marginal upgrade on the 2016 roster when healthy and some insurance for injuries to the 2016 roster
- further highlights Smoak's total lack of utility to the 2016 roster as I think he should be the one DFA'd as a consequence of the trade (once baserunning and defence are factored in)
- this is an excellent alternative for the 2017 roster to the Jay Bruce trade
- the trade is a very good one due to the costs

When I look at the Smoak and Upton deals in conjunction I can see no other reasonable conclusion that the front office does not expect to sign more than 1 of JB,EE and MS and likely none.

Another issue is whether Upton should take the lead-off spot in the lineup.  I'm sure some people will make that argument, on the assumption that the speedy Upton is the 2016 version of Ben Revere.   On the other hand, Upton has only a .304 OBP this season, and he has historically hit better in the lower part of the lineup (with a .778 OPS when hitting 5th to 9th in the lineup over the past 3 seasons).  So it's probably best to keep Bautista at the lead-off spot, and ease Upton back into the AL East by hitting him near the bottom of the lineup.  They can move him up later if he thrives.

The Blue Jays gain an Outfielder who played in a stadium where HRs go to die and still managed 6 HRs in 161 ABs over 44 G. He's costing the Jays less than Justin Smoak over the next year and a half. All the Jays lost was one of their vast herd of young talented Pitchers, a very young one at that. Right now he's better than any 4th Outfielder the Jays have used this season. His stats http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml indicate he's a valued asset. What's not to like.

Bautista is the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Not sure why we'd move him down to put the worst obp on the team at leadoff.

re: next year's roster

CF Pillar
RF Upton
LF Pompey
3B Donaldson
SS Tulowitzki
2B Travis
1B Encarnacion
DH Bautista or Saunders
C Martin

UT Smoak
OF Carrera
IF Barney
C whoever

I still see a clear need for 2 big bats to be signed / re-signed.

Yeah, the way value is measured has changed tremendously over the years. If Upton can provide a 100 wRC+ with plus defense/base running, then he's probably a 2-3 win player even without typical corner OF offense. Saunders is giving us the flip side; someone who is hitting the cover off the ball (likely unsustainably) without providing any defensive or base running value. Overall they'll probably provide similar value, give or take, despite Saunders looking like the better corner OF option. It really hinges on Upton keeping his head above water offensively (at least league average offense). If he can do that, then he's an asset, especially at $5M to 1.5 years.

When I look at the Smoak and Upton deals in conjunction I can see no other reasonable conclusion that the front office does not expect to sign more than 1 of JB,EE and MS and likely none.

The more of these value deals Atkins makes, the more I think we have a good chance at signing one of our 3 big bat FAs to DH for sure.  all three of those guys love TO, we figure to be a contender going forward, and Rogers should bump the payroll - even if just slightly - in order to keep a fan favorite.  Corporate bottom line, yada yada - but corporations aren't completely oblivious to fan sentiment, and with 3 guys to negotiate with, it's possible to imagine a fair deal to both team and player for at least one guy. 

And even casual fans will notice things like 4th in MLB attendance.  Even the Richard Griffins of the world will write about this. 

The chance of Smoak getting DFA'd?  0% 

That's the sort of move that people think possible when viewing players as playing cards rather than people-  you think the clubhouse isn't happy for Smoak and his new deal?  Unless they have had conversations with Smoak about the possibility of a DFA (hugely unlikely) a DFA at this point would be perceived as a huge dick move.   

When I look at the Smoak and Upton deals in conjunction I can see no other reasonable conclusion that the front office does not expect to sign more than 1 of JB,EE and MS and likely none.

I don't think Smoak or Upton have much impact at all on the likelihood of the Blue Jays signing those three. Both Edwin and Bautista know this is their once chance to grasp the brass ring. If someone is going to pay them grandly well beyond their effective years, like Boston with Price, Toronto isn't going to outbid foolishness. Bautista's chances of re-signing with Toronto ended when he behaved the way he did at the press conference early in the year. Edwin will be an unlikely sign if the Red Sox want him. And a deal with Saunders is no more or less possible.

Assuming QO's are extended to all three, the Blue Jays are now in the enviable position of taking supplemental picks and using the money elsewhere, which is what they said they would do if players don't re-sign.

I don't know why so many think EE will go to Boston if not here. I think there is little chance of that. To me, it seems Houston or Texas would be more likely to be successful suitors.

Could well be right Peter. I only mentioned Boston because it got the media play after Ortiz' comments. And Boston will need a DH unless they move Hanley there. Actually, Edwin is likely a better first baseman than Hanley. I attended the game at Fenway last night and assumed a ball was hit foul from Hanley's disinterest. It was easily fair.

Toronto will be in the best position to sign Edwin because they don't lose an existing pick. But if someone is going to give him 4 or 5 years, he'll probably be gone. And I'm good with that.

always nice to hear this kind of stuff...

Jason Grill @GrillCheese49
Trust me, you're going to love it here. #BlueJays @MelvinUptonJr

I expect all 3 of JB/EE/MS to sign elsewhere - I will judge the FO on the overall roster more than which players they might re-sign - IF Upton has a good run the rest of this season, then Upton/Pillar/Pompey may be just fine - I expect the team to pair Smoak with Colabello/Napoli/Reynolds - with many young outfielders,the Padres will be working overtime to move Matt Kemp likely as a DH in the AL - if you get his remaining 3 yrs. cheaply (Padres paying )then maybe the Jays bite or try for Bruce as a 1 year rental. I am happy with the new FO so far, so I not going to worry to much about next season.

So I am not going to worry too much about next season.

I think Jesus Montero will be given an opportunity next season.

so we lead the league in attendance and have huge tv ratings boost, and you guys are fine with letting all our FA go and dropping payroll?

I expect Montero to  be with the team when the rosters expend and get some play times against lefties.

so we lead the league in attendance and have huge tv ratings boost, and you guys are fine with letting all our FA go and dropping payroll?

Not me Ugly.  Rogers needs to boost payroll and show that they give a blank, and I think they actually might.

I'm fine with not being the highest bidder on a FA if it means getting a first round pick and spending the money more efficiently. Obviously dropping payroll would be completely unacceptable, but then again you had posters in here defending Rogers holding this year's payroll steady because of the CAD (which has recovered around 10% since).

I am certainly not for dropping payroll - I'm in favour of increasing payroll (Unlikely) - I will judge the FO on how it spends the money & not whether it re-signs JB/EE/MS - It's like I was against the Marlins & Mets deals not because I was against trading prospects or adding salary but I felt those assets were poorly spent.

The problem with next year is there aren't very many good free agents other than Encarnation, Bautista, Rich Hill and Melancon. Maybe Cespedes opts out of his deal. That's 5 players for the entire market...not gonna work out for the Jays unless they overpay.

Other guys they can look at on the market would be Reddick, Desmond, Trumbo, Saunders, Cashner or De La Rosa.

They'll probably take fliers on guys like Moss, Morrison, Napoli or try trading for overpriced players that still have some value like a Joe Mauer.

I'm starting to think they definitely sign one of their guys at market value because they won't have anybody else to spend their money on other than a Josh Donaldson extension.

Finally figured out how to turn off the annoying auto correct on the mac.

The decisions on the Jays 3 big FA's will be about term more than salary imo.

Well it will probably be about money really.

The reason players want a longer term is because you end up with more money.

ie. 10 years at 30mill a year is 300mill, 5 years at 45mill is 225mill

Rogers needs to boost payroll and show that they give a blank, and I think they actually might.

The problem is that boosting payroll is so often equivalent to taking tens of millions of dollars and throwing them down the toilet.

Does anybody remember Ubaldo Jiminez? He was a free agent before the 2014 season, and many people were urging the Jays to sign him. The Orioles landed him for four years and $50 million, and his ERA is currently 7.38. And David Price's ERA is 4.51 and he is leading the American League in hits allowed.

Given this, I can see the Rogers bean counters making a strong case for not throwing big money at free agents.

I don't know why so many think EE will go to Boston if not here.

Because the Sox have more money than they really should. And because they will need a DH next year. And because Ortiz (a fellow Dominican) will probably make a sales pitch. And because we live in a world of hurt.

Dalimon5 - I think that's when teams get into trouble - if there aren't decent deals to be had, don't overpay - you don't have to spend the money (Ramirez,Sandoval) - wait for an opportunity, maybe mid-season a team is trying to unload a contract , next season - the Yankees acquired Prado & Castro cheaply because the could absorb the money - I'd rather no deal than a bad deal.

The problem is that boosting payroll is so often equivalent to taking tens of millions of dollars and throwing them down the toilet.

Charitably, that's a strawman.  Did our FO throw tens of millions down the toilet on Happ and Estrada?  Our millions down the toilet went for a trade acquisition (Storen).  The guys we signed as FA - add Barney, Floyd and Morales to that list - have provided tremendous value overall.

Dave you are right. A lot of fans wanted the Jays to sign Pujols/Prince/Ervin Santana/Jimenez/Price etc etc.

And of course these deals weren't made because Rogers was cheap! lol

When I look at the Smoak and Upton deals in conjunction I can see no other reasonable conclusion that the front office does not expect to sign more than 1 of JB,EE and MS and likely none.

That would be fantastic. It would prove this organization isn't willing to throw tens of millions of dollars away on players whose best years are behind them. "Likely none" is the scenario I'm hoping for.

If the Jays signed Happ or Estrada to a 10 year $300 Million dollar contract then yeah it wouldn't have been a great deal.

Just look at the history of these types of deals and how infrequently they work out.

Honestly, ugly, with the far-and-away best prospects in baseball that you constantly raise the flag for, one would think you wouldn't be so concerned about throwing away ridiculous amounts of money to extend existing declining players to abysmal contracts.

Are you related to J.P. Ricciardi? He had the same "veterans are always going to produce at this level while prospects will do nothing but exceed their actual ceilings" kind of mentality that you seem to espouse.

jerjapan, I might be mistaken, but weren't you dead-set against Happ/Estrada because it was money taken away from David Price?

Parker, a lot of people were.

And when the next FA comes around they will want to spend all available money on them.

And year after year these deals rarely work out. I don't know why people don't learn.

I wan't to keep Bautista/EE as much as the next guy, but if they want 7-10 years it's better to pass.

Top 2016 Teams: 2016 Free Agent Spending (>$20m commitments)


1.CHC .600 - $272.0 (Heyward,Zobrist,Lackey)
2.BAL .592 - $214.0 (Davis,O'Day,Gallardo)
3.SFG .586 - $251.0 (Cueto,Samardzija,Span)

How about leaving the free agent discussion until the end of the season?  Good teams will sign free agents.  It's all a question of the particulars of the player and his demands.  Take Lance Berkman.  He had had a great career through age 33.  At age 34 in 2010, he had a down year and one not much different from Jose Bautista's 2016 so far.  In the off-season, the Cardinals signed him to a 2 year, $20 million contract. He bounced back in 2011 and was an important contributor to a World Series champ.  He only had 97 PAs, and actually hit pretty well in those appearances, in the second year of his contract.  I am sure that the Cardinals felt that they had gotten value for their money. 

Tepera was optioned to make room for Upton.

If Bautista wants more than 2/40, no thanks. If Encarnacion wants more than 3/60, ditto.

Neither one will settle for what he is actually worth. Both of them seem to honestly believe the revisionist absurdity that signed at a discount, when all they did was sacrifice a potential earnings ceiling in exchange for guaranteed money. It's the nature of free agency... some foolish front office will cripple its team's future by handing them insane contracts.

"Honestly, ugly, with the far-and-away best prospects in baseball that you constantly raise the flag for, one would think you wouldn't be so concerned about throwing away ridiculous amounts of money to extend existing declining players to abysmal contracts.

Are you related to J.P. Ricciardi? He had the same "veterans are always going to produce at this level while prospects will do nothing but exceed their actual ceilings" kind of mentality that you seem to espouse."

Having so many great young players means we have more money to spend. this is good.

I loved JP's biggest FA signings like Burnett and Ryan. If only he had a real payroll to work with.

jerjapan, I might be mistaken, but weren't you dead-set against Happ/Estrada because it was money taken away from David Price?

I did indeed dislike the Happ deal and I was dead wrong on that one.  I liked the Estrada deal.  I still think that people are focusing too much on Price's ERA, and I still wish we'd signed him.  But that would have required boosting payroll - an entirely reasonable hope (not a naive hope, a reasonable one, given on increased attendance and statements made by Beeston). 

The Jiminez deal remains a straw man IMO - pick the guy whose contending team is trying to dump him for salary reasons and decry FA deals?  Jiminez, per fangraphs, has been worth 29.5 million out of his 50 million dollar deal, with one year left to go.  Bad, but not crippling.

2x20 for Bautista is absurd.  5x30 is equally absurd.  The market is what the market is, and smart teams can find value - just like we did with Happ, Estrada and Barney.

Top 2016 Teams: 2016 Free Agent Spending (>$20m commitments)

Wow, really? Okay:

1.CHC .600 - $272.0 (Heyward,Zobrist,Lackey)

Insane amount of young, controlled talent. They're the team you wish the Blue Jays were.

2.BAL .592 - $214.0 (Davis,O'Day,Gallardo)

Retention of youngish superstar and organizational consistency of performing well above expectations.

3.SFG .586 - $251.0 (Cueto,Samardzija,Span)

They win the World Series every second year!

You weave a heck of a narrative, ugly. You should be writing fanfic, not commenting on real-life baseball matters.

UO, I only looked at the Chicago FAs you listed.

Lackey is on a 2 year deal. Zobrist 4 years. I'm talking about bigger contracts than that. The kind im expecting Bautista and EE to demand.

Jason Heyward has on OPS of .632 and is on an 8 year $184 Mill contract. Despite this I don't mind they Heyward contract idea as much because he hit free agency so young (like Osuna will).

Yes, Parker, dismiss actual real life facts, then accuse me of writing fiction.

Convincing as always.

Smoak is unlikely to actually be DFA'ed, but I think the team wouldn't care about that nearly as much as if Bautista or Encarnacion were traded (as some have proposed).

It would be a pretty outside the box move, that's for sure.

I'd do something like 4/85 or 4/90 for both Encarnacion and Bautista at this point. I think they have a reasonable chance of playing to those contracts, and the commitment is less than will be required to sign other top-tier free agents of the same quality. I'd let Saunders go personally, as he'll likely cost more than I'd want to pay (plus, draft pick). I don't have access to the budget figures though.

Of course, Bautista isn't getting $30mx5 from anyone anyways.

If anything, older FAs are starting to become a market inefficiency to exploit, as teams are paying elite rates for good not great players simply because they're younger. So Heyward gets overpaid and Zobrist becomes a bargain.

And of course, I have zero doubt that Joey and EE would take less to stay here. We don't have to be the high bid to keep them.

I'll try one more time. Don't you think that Bautista's performance over the remainder of the year will affect his demands/marketability?  At this point, he's delivered 0.6 bWAR for the year.  If he hits and fields well over the remainder of the year, his first half performance will probably be seen as a blip.  If he hits at the same level (or worse), it will be a whole other story.  He turns 36 in October.   I don't see why the 2016 equivalent of a Berkman offer would be absurd if he continues to hit in the same way (which I hope does not turn out to be the case). 

Convincing as always.

Nobody's trying to convince you of anything, friend. Are you trying to convince anyone but yourself with all the facts and statistics that you pull out?

no doubt the rest of the year is huge for Bautista. look at zobrist's deal.

If Rogers increases payroll, and the Jays spend it on re-signing Bautista and Edwin to four or five year deals (for example), then it undercuts the entire benefit of a payroll increase. The Jays got JB and EE's best seasons. All they would be doing by re-signing them is paying them a lot more to get a lot less value in return. If each are willing to sign two year deals, then I'm game, but if they are heading towards 4-5 year territory, then Atkins/Shapiro are justified in wanting to move on. Saunders is a risk for different reasons (injury, bad defense, and what appears to be unsustainable offense).

I think this front office is more than ready to move on from Bautista, Edwin, and Saunders unless the players are willing to take a term that makes sense for the team (which they probably won't). They'll get comp picks to further restock the system, but will need to replace those bats in the lineup.

Parker, if you don't like real life facts and figures, that's fine.

Just realize that means you're the one living in a world of pretend.

"I loved JP's biggest FA signings like Burnett and Ryan. If only he had a real payroll to work with."

Ryan is an odd signing to like -- IIRC most folks in Jays-land really disliked giving that contract to a reliever and viewed it as a waste of resources. I liked the Burnett deal too, but his opt-out was often brought up as a bad idea. In the end, the critics of the deal correct on that aspect of the deal.

The JP era was such a mixed bag -- I try not to think about it. Especially not his scary clown act that he did on "Wednesday's with JP". Aside from the great run prevention of the 2008 team and the all round gentlemanly grace of Halladay, they are years best forgotten.

The Jays have optioned Tepera to make room for Upton.  As I predicted, they still want Carrera on the team. 

But he could still be dropped later if the roster gets squeezed.  There could be a crunch if the Jays decide that they need to return briefly to an 8-man pen because of a minor injury or over-work.  None of the bench players have options.  Schultz is the only reliever with options.  Between now and Aug. 31, Schultz might be the one who gets shuttled back and forth to Buffalo if they need to make room for anyone.

I'm not sure if the Jays needed to clear a 40-man roster spot for Upton.  Perhaps not, since they dropped Storen and haven't added anyone since then.

Here are the top 10 contracts given out last off season.

David Price $217,000,000
Zack Greinke $206,500,000
Jason Heyward $184,000,000
Chris Davis $161,000,000
Justin Upton $132,750,000
Johnny Cueto $130,000,000
Jordan Zimmerma $110,000,000
Jeff Samardzija $90,000,000
Wei-Yin Chen $80,000,000
Mike Leake $80,000,000

I think Cueto's really the only guy having a good season. And its only the first year of the deals.

SK: The fact that Bautista and Encarnacion were signed to great team-friendly deals was just luck / skill on the part of AA - teams don't often chance upon elite players at just above average salaries. Basically what you're saying is that we should never sign any free agents at market value, which I don't think is a sustainable way to run a ballclub (especially if you have money to work with). I think Bautista / Encarnacion at a reasonable price is actually still a good deal to the team, as they don't have to commit to a 7-10 year albatross contracts that are being handed out these days.

Burnett had 3 good to very good years for us at an affordable price, and only injuries stopped them from being even better.

Ryan had one ridiculous year, another good year, and 2 write off years. Could have been better but not a bad return imo.

the real problem of course is that those teams weren't good enough to compete with NYY and BOS tripling our payroll.

for me, the problem with those teams were the midmarket hillenbrands and koskies and shcoenweises.

I guess Chris Davis is doing ok too. But only hitting .220ish.

The schedule for August is uneven.  They go straight through until August 10 and after August 23, but have 3 days off between the 11th and 22nd.  You would expect that they would go with a 7 man pen (at least) before the 10th and after the 23rd, but might go with a 6 man pen in the middle period, depending on how the rotation is going then.  You could even skip a Sanchez start in the middle there (giving it to Hutchison) and control his innings that way. 

"....Not sure why we'd move him down to put the worst obp on the team at leadoff...."

You have a habit of criticizing posts that you actually agree with.  I said Bautista should stay in the leadoff spot, which you apparently agree with, but you ridiculed my post as if I was saying something entirely different. 

I merely said that some fans will want Upton in the leadoff spot, because some fans misunderstand his skill set and because some fans believe that the speediest guy should always be the leadoff hitter.

Confirming the planned role for Upton and how it will push Saunders and Bautista into a greater DH role, here's a tweet on what Gibbons has said tonight:

Gibbons says Upton will start vs LHP, and some RHP.  Smoak will lose PT with one of Saunders or Bautista at DH.  Jose will DH tomorrow.

Devon Travis again bats ninth tonight.  It's not a big deal, but I don't understand it.  There are a bunch of possibilities for an optimal batting order, but Travis' hitting ninth against a RHP is not one of them.  He has severe reverse splits both in the major leagues and in the high minors (2014 in Erie). 

Further to the roster crunch:  the Jays are said to be among the frontrunners to acquire Cashner from San Diego, and are chasing other pitchers too.  If they acquire Cashner (who would probably be a reliever who could join the rotation when Sanchez shifts to the bullpen), the Jays will then presumably demote Schultz, and then they'll have an entire roster with nobody who can be optioned.  Could be a little restrictive in August, but as Mike points out, they do have some off days.

yes fangraphs' FA$ metric is flawed but here goes on that list:

(for the sake of this i'll just assume all teams are 60% thru the season)

$20+/yr deals

Greinke ($34x6): $18.3m current, $30.5m pace (-3.5)
Price ($31x7): $22.8m current, $38.0m pace (+7.0)
Cespedes ($25x3): $18.2m current, $30.3m pace (+5.3)
Heyward ($23x8): $9.1m current, $15.2m pace (-7.8)
Davis ($23x7): $16.6m current, $27.7m pace (+4.7)
Upton ($22x6): -$3.9m current, -$6.5m pace (-28.5)
Cueto ($22x6): $30.0m current, $50.0m pace (+28.0)
Zimmerman ($22x5): $17.4m current, $29.0m pace (+7.0)

interestingly, the 2 real flops so far also happen to be the only 2 young guys under 30 - Heyward and Upton.

uglyone, just for a moment, think about the single best day of your life. Got it? Now, extrapolate everything that you did right, and that went right for you that day, over an entire year. Pretty good year, right? Have you ever had a year that good?

That greatest day of your life was a fact. Nobody would ever take that away from you. It's a fact that was the greatest day of your life. Has your entire life been that good since then?

The Jays have optioned Tepera to make room for Upton. As I predicted, they still want Carrera on the team.

Good call, CF. I guess I still owe you that Coke. :)

Nice to see the Jays are actually not married to the ridiculous 8-man bullpen idea, finally.

"SK: The fact that Bautista and Encarnacion were signed to great team-friendly deals was just luck / skill on the part of AA - teams don't often chance upon elite players at just above average salaries. Basically what you're saying is that we should never sign any free agents at market value,"


I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that the Jays got the best years out of Bautista and Encarnacion already. It just happened to come with great, team friendly contracts, but that's really besides the point. The players will only get worse from here on out given their ages, except from 2017-onwards they will want to be paid based on their 2010-16 production, and not what is reasonably expected of them going forward. The upside for the Jays in that scenario, especially since both of them have limited/no defensive value, is very small.

Paying them market value for the decline years is the bad part. Paying someone market value, depending on the risk/cost/player involved, is fine.

Are you insinuating that I only loom at good performances, and ignore bad?

perhaps you have an example of such?

Are you insinuating that I only loom at good performances, and ignore bad?

perhaps you have an example of such? I'm not insinuating anything.

I'm just stating facts. Just as you do. You're all about facts, right?

which fact are you referring to?

I take it all the people who are resolutely opposed to giving out big contracts to free agents are unhappy with the Russell Martin signing? Personally, I don't think it's a coincidence that the Jays' two best teams in a couple of decades have had Martin as their starting catcher.

Here's how our lineup looks now, based only on this year's stats, with combined fwar and bwar:

3B Donaldson 446pa, .319babip, 164wrc+, 8.3war/650
2B Travis 190pa, .336babip, 107wrc+, 5.1war/650
LF Saunders 377pa, .353babip, 143wrc+, 4.1war/650
SS Tulowitzki 315pa, .269babip, 103wrc+, 4.1war/650
CF Pillar 401pa, .298babip, 80wrc+, 3.7war/650
1B En'cion 425pa, .268babip, 136wrc+, 3.4war/650
RF Upton 374pa, .320babip, 100wrc+, 3.0war/650
DH Bautista 290pa, .240babip, 119wrc+, 1.7war/650
C Martin 308pa, .301babip, 76wrc+, 0.0war/650

UT Smoak 263pa, .314babip, 101wrc+, 0.5war/650
OF Carrera 216pa, .317babip, 99wrc+, 2.9war/650
IF Barney 217pa, .323babip, 93wrc+, 4.5war/650
C Thole 103pa, .194babip, 25wrc+, -2.8war/650

On the free-agent issues:  I tend to agree with Mike that we'll have plenty of time to discuss them in the off-season, rather than now.  But one quick point:  I do think the Jays have an advantage in negotiating with Bautista, Edwin and Saunders. They're here and they're comfortable and happy in Toronto.  It's a lot easier to persuade free agents to stay in Toronto, rather than trying to lure a skeptical free agent who has never lived in Canada and is often suspicious of borders, taxes, passports etc.  I think this was definitely a factor in the acquisition of free agents Estrada, Happ and Martin.   (Happ and Martin were moving from other teams, but were very familiar with Toronto, unlike most free agents.)  Of course money is still the biggest factor, but it would make sense for the Jays to try to exploit any advantages that they might have.  If there's an insanely generous offer from Boston or New York, the Toronto advantage won't matter at all, but if the offers are reasonably close, the Jays could have an edge.  So they should try to exploit it, just as they did with Estrada, Happ and Martin. 

I tend to agree with those who say that the Jays will manage to sign (at most) one of the three.  But it's worth a major effort to try for all of them.

When I look at the Smoak and Upton deals in conjunction I can see no other reasonable conclusion that the front office does not expect to sign more than 1 of JB,EE and MS and likely none.

They only need one because Saunders and Bautista provide poor defense. Have you notice how guys like Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, etc. get excited when the defense makes a good play?

Ricciardi wasn't given the money he needed to field a complete team. Signing the Big Hurt was an horrible move, but overall he did fine with the means he had.

Martin was a massive overpay to get Montrealers to watch the Blue Jays.
I'm sure it works financially, so I don't worry about it, except when he gets into negative WAR.

Cashner not doing well in his audition for a Jays job.

Martin was a massive overpay

Martin 2015 salary: $7m
Martin 2015 value: $27.7m*

* Not including first Jays playoff appearance in 21 years

Will the Jays someday regret that they gave up on Ryan Schimpf?  Will he someday rank with Sam Dyson and Yan Gomes as players who were somehow undervalued in the Jays system?

Just looking superficially at Schimpf's numbers in the Jays system:  of course he was usually over-age for his level, but he certainly seemed to hit at every level.  And he seems able to play 2B and 3B.    Seems a bit odd that the Jays didn't give him a better chance to reach the majors.

Sanchez is now your new AL ERA leader.

Ricciardi wasn't given the money he needed to field a complete team. Signing the Big Hurt was an horrible move, but overall he did fine with the means he had.

Oofff.  no, no, not true Scottt!  JPR couldn't draft, couldn't field a winner, and gives Gord Ash a run for his money as worst GM in team history.  Ash is the one in the higher position currently - VP to JPR's 'special assistant'. 

Schimpf couldn't hit in Buffalo.  At all.  In 358 ABs as a 26-7 year old.  I love that he's making a go of it for SD, but I literally recall nobody other than myself mentioning him in his years with TO. 

I liked the Big Hurt signing. Had a great year for us. then we cut bait on the 2nd year without much cost.

Jerjapan, you're right about Schimpf in Buffalo.   I was looking at his overall AAA stats -- he sports an OPS of .813 in 149 games at the AAA level -- but I notice now that a big chunk of those games were in the PCL, where he played for the San Diego affiliate. 

So it seems that he couldn't hit in Buffalo but suddenly became a great hitter when he joined the San Diego affiliate.  Some of that, I guess, could have been PCL league inflation.  But did he perhaps find a good hitting coach in the San Diego system?

Schimpf did hit very well for New Hampshire, so it's possible that he always had hitting potential but couldn't translate it to Buffalo for some odd reason. 

As for the fact that nobody mentioned him on Batters Box:  that doesn't really tell us a lot.  Bauxites have had a low opinion of a number of prospects who turned out to be very good, and they had a high opinion of many prospects who turned out to be not very good.   Bauxite opinion could just reflect conventional wisdom, more than anything else.

Having said all that, Schimpf only has 112 plate appearances in the majors, so perhaps it's an early blip and he reverts to poor hitting in the future.  But he still seems like someone who could have been given a longer look in the Jays system.

After a poor start with the first 3 Jays batters, Cashner has settled down and looks pretty good actually.   He might be a decent pickup for the Jays or whoever gets him.

Gibbons elects to lose the DH for the rest of the game rather than move Bautista to first base. That's interesting.

Letting Dickerson steal off a lefty....bad baseball.

I hope someone in the media has the guts to grill Gibbons on his decision to lose the DH instead of putting Bautista at 1B and Upton in the OF. That is an absolutely ridiculous move.

Losing the DH is perhaps not a big issue.  When the pitcher's spot rolls around (which might not be for a couple of innings), the Jays can use Barney as the pinch-hitter, and then slot him into the field if they want to keep his bat in the lineup.   It's probably not an issue unless it goes deep into extra innings.

"....I hope someone in the media has the guts to grill Gibbons on his decision to lose the DH instead of putting Bautista at 1B...."

Thereby slandering both Gibbons AND the media in one brief rant....

The media does routinely ask Gibbons to explain decisions that look odd.  Your suggestion that the media is too cowardly to question a manager's move is a bizarre one.

As for Bautista not playing 1B:  there could be a very simple explanation, perhaps involving his foot (which isn't 100 per cent healed, as Bautista himself has already noted).  Or there could be any number of other explanations.  But it might be a good idea to wait for the full story before assuming that the manager is simply too stupid for his job.

"....the Jays can use Barney as the pinch-hitter...."

Or Carrera, of course.

I never knew questioning a non-sensical baseball decision was "slander". That term doesn't mean what you think it does.

I know you like to white knight every criticism of Gibbons, but I don't even think the man himself can explain this decision in a logical manner, much less his supporters on the internet.

If Bautista's toe is preventing him from playing a few innings at 1B, then what's he doing in RF? If Gibbons is uncomfortable putting JB at 1B at any time, then why pinch hit for Smoak when you know the only other 1B on the roster is currently at DH? You can't assume the Jays take the lead (they were down 4-3 at the time) and think removing the DH won't matter later. Now you have to keep pinch hitting in that spot. Maybe it won't matter if the Padres win, or the Jays score anyway, but it's a pretty pointless move.

Pinch hitting Upton for Smoak was a good move, IMO. The defensive switch, to put it mildly, was not. Let's hope it doesn't matter and the Jays win anyway.

"....That term doesn't mean what you think it does...."

Slander is verbal defamation.  Since you did it on the web, it may have been libel, rather than slander.  In either case, it was obviously an exaggeration to make the simple point that you unfairly attacked Gibbons. 

"I know you like to white knight every criticism of Gibbons...."

No, I only "white knight" the unfair and illogical criticisms. 

"...I don't even think the man himself can explain this decision in a logical manner..."

Or you could just wait until the end of the game, when the media will ask Gibbons, and then you could decide whether you agree or disagree with his explanation.  (Despite you initial ridiculous claim that the media don't have the "guts" to ask those kinds of questions, the beat reporters have already tweeted that they will be asking him.  So you could just wait and see what Gibbons says.)

"...If Bautista's toe is preventing him from playing a few innings at 1B, then what's he doing in RF?..."

Bautista is one of the best hitters on the team.  He's in RF because they need to get his bat into the lineup, and you can't have everyone playing DH or 1B.  Is there some kind of a rule that Bautista must stay in Buffalo until he's capable of playing 1B?

"....If Gibbons is uncomfortable putting JB at 1B at any time, then why pinch hit for Smoak when you know the only other 1B on the roster is currently at DH?...."

As you admitted a couple of sentences later, it was a good move.

"...Now you have to keep pinch hitting in that spot...."

And why is that so disastrous?  Carrera and Barney are decent hitters.   The pitcher's spot is also an issue every two or three innings.  When you're managing a team, you can't base your decisions on the risk of a 14-inning game, because most games don't go to 14 innings.  More importantly, if Bautista isn't able to play 1B, it's an academic question anyway.

I don't even think the man himself can explain this decision in a logical manner, much less his supporters on the internet.

Bautista has played a grand total of 3 innings at 1B in the last two seasons. Upton has played a grand total of 8 innings in RF in his entire career. Gibbons went with the best defensive alignment in a 4-4 tie game, which had his players at their normal positions, rather than having TWO players in unfamiliar positions. It's really not that difficult.

There have already been two balls hit sharply to Encarnacion at 1B, which he played nicely, which Bautista might have missed because of a lack of recent experience at 1B.   The game might already be over if Bautista was at 1B.

Bautista is very rusty, both in the field and at the plate.  I guess that is to be expected.

Cracka, he punted the DH when the score was 4-3 SD (that's when Upton pinch hit). If the Jays didn't score that inning, does he still eliminate the DH when they are down a run? I've seen Gibbons play Martin at 2B some times and that sure as hell isn't his natural position regardless of what Martin thinks of his own ability there. You can work around stuff like this without eliminating the DH completely. It's not like Bautista was asked to play SS or something. Plus, Bautista being in his normal position leads to stuff like what we saw in the 12th tonight. He's not good defensively, and neither is Saunders. Having two OF's on the bench and not being able to have them as defensive replacements is pretty pointless.

If people here can give examples of other AL managers doing what Gibbons did tonight, I'd love to see it. I'm sure it's happened, but I sure as hell do not see it often.

OK, Jays win, so the Gibby bashing with cease for the night.

Travis had an amazing AB in that inning.

After a memorable 12th inning, the Jays announce that Joaquin Benoit is on his way here.  Interesting day.

The Jays have traded Drew Storen and "cash considerations" to the Mariners for Joaquin Benoit.

Jays acquire Benoit for Storen and cash. That kind of came out of nowhere.

Devon Travis with the at-bat of the season in my opinion. Villanueva (aka Marco Estrada version 1.0) was pounding the zone with good well placed strikes that whole AB, but Travis kept fighting off everything until Carlos finally tried for a low chase and Travis wouldn't bite.

Not to mention his great read on the wild pitch to win the game. That was really fun.

Benoit's velocity appears to be right where it normally is. I think he's a better option for the rest of 2016 than Storen who has experienced a velocity drop by 2 mph as has been discussed here in the past.

Maybe Gibby was just taking advantage of having an extra guy on the bench. It's not what I would have done, but it worked out. They did have enough reasonably good pinch hitters to get them to the 12th, and has they just tied they would have probably been fine until the 15th. Barney arguably had the biggest hit of the 12th, so that was good.

Otherwise, great win!

Travis is some kinda hitter. Love this kid. Please move him up the order.

This would have been a horrible loss but thanks to our weakening sked the Sadres helped us up into 2nd place ahead of the hated red sox. huge.

would be nice if we started swinging it for real though. you could tell the fans and players felt the playoff switch was flipped with the trade and Bats back from injury.

speaking of the sox, the yanks have crept up to 4gms back of them. man would i love to see them pass'em.

In the category of "baseball is weird sometimes", Benoit once had a seven inning save in his Rangers days, which I believe is the longest in the era of the save rule.

Benoit? doubt he helps but hey why not.

There are a lot of things you can question China Fan on, but Slander isn't one of them. Guy writes for the Globe. I'm sure he's been schooled.

I didn't see the game, but with regards to Bautista, maybe Gibbons was concerned that someone may step on Bautista's foot at 1B.

I'm not a lawyer, so correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't slander when someone tells a lie about someone else in order to hurt their reputation? How the hell is a media member calling Gibbons out on one of his decisions anywhere near slander?

"Hey John, I thought you made a bad move out there, care to explain?"
"I'll see you in court".

Yeah, I don't see that.

Stoman gives up a 3 run homer to cough up a 3-1 lead, 4 rallies snuffed with GIDP's and Chavez gets taken yard putting us down by 2 in the 12th.

That was a game we deserved to lose, but managed to win anyway. Just awesome.

Boston's Knuckler Steven Wright got knocked around tonight as apparently the heat makes for sweaty hands & difficulty controlling the Knuckle - I expect a rocky outing tomorrow from Dickey.

I didn't see the game, but with regards to Bautista, maybe Gibbons was concerned that someone may step on Bautista's foot at 1B.

This is an interesting point. As someone who has played hundreds of innings at the position (admittedly in situations well below professional level) I can at least attest to how important footwork is to playing first base. Often times you are simply trusting your feet to find the bag while your eyes look for the incoming baseball zipping (hopefully) towards you. It's very easy to step badly, jam a toe, or get jabbed by an innocent cleat spike when you're over there.

Although, I agree that Bats barely looks like an outfielder anymore. The speed/range should come back a bit if he gets healthier but the arm really looks toast. Unless he's brilliantly saving it again for a crucial September situation... wouldn't put it past the guy.

What a game.

The hell of it is, Chavez's home run ball looked like a good pitch, esp. based on Kemp's zones. Sounds like Kemp was guessing on that one from his last at bat.

Agree on Travis having the at-bat of the season.

Even with us passing the Red Sox, I haven't been able to shake the feeling Dombrowski will continue wheeling and dealing, using that huge prospect bankroll he inherited, to make them division favorites.

That is, until I noticed their schedule - they have played 18 more games at home - 41 of their 64 remaining games are on the road.

Benoit's velocity appears to be right where it normally is. I think he's a better option for the rest of 2016 than Storen who has experienced a velocity drop by 2 mph as has been discussed here in the past.

I just checked out their splits this year. Benoit is slightly better in OPS vs. RHB's (.716 vs. .745) and wildly better vs. LHB (.669 vs. 1.147). The difference was so considerable that I had to go back and check again.

"Martin 2015 salary: $7m
Martin 2015 value: $27.7m*"

Martin 2016 salary: $15m
Martin 2016 value: major league minimum?

Martin 2017 salary, 2018 salary, 2019 salary: $60m
Martin 2017-2019 value?:

The deal was always structured so that 2015 was going to be very valuable but the Jays now have a declining 33 YO catcher with a 0 WAR who is owed $60M for the next three years. Overall, will the deal be OK? It depends if Martin bounces back next year or not.

Ryan Schimpf was the Jays version of Devon Travis. A guy who succeeds but without tools.

I hope to see Barnes and Rowen throw a couple of innings in September.

I was a bit puzzled by the DH move, but then I remembered that Gibbons has to try to find atbats for Carrera and Barney. Barney's double was instrumental in the 12th and I don't think we want to see him at first base.

There is that drop in velocity, but Storens' peripherals are decent except his homerun/flyball ratio.
Seattle is a better place for him than Toronto.

Benoit is 39 like Grilli. I guess the hope here is that Martin and being on a winning team can reignite his performance. His velocity is still there, but control is probably an issue. Hits are up, walks are up, homeruns are up, but strikeouts are high too.

Could be a decent option for the 7th inning if Gibby doesn't use him on consecutive days.
Not the guy you want to bring in with runners in scoring position.

I thought a key point in the game, besides Travis's at-bat, was Biagini getting the third out with men on second and third ( With the help of a nice play by Tulo) in the seventh inning. He then got the first two outs of the next inning before giving way to Cecil. I think he has been a great pick-up as a Rule 5 draftee and there has been some talk that the jays might try transitioning him to a starters role in the future.

There is no transition. Biagini has always been a starter.
He has 86 starts in the minors. He threw 130 innings in AA last year with an ERA of 2.42.
I have no idea why the Giants, with their depleted farm system, didn't think he was worth protecting.
Maybe he figured something out on his own? Something wrong with his AA pitching coach?

Once freed from the Rule V restrictions, he'll be the 6th starter at Buffalo.

With Benoit coming over (likely for Friday), who goes? - is it Schultz (options) or Carrera - or maybe the Jays make another move by friday.

Martin's already recovered, really. And has 40% left of this season to continue putting that horrific start this year in the back mirror.

Schultz has options so it will be him.

Osuna-Grilli-Cecil-Biagini-Benoit-Morales-Chavez is probably what we will end up seeing down the stretch (barring any other moves between now and Monday) until they have to face the Sanchez decision.

I wouldn't mind seeing barney at 1st. I bet he'd be more valuable than smoal there.

boston had a scorching start but have pretty much been a .500 team for their last 60gms or so.

Dickerson is an interesting case.  He always hit in the minor leagues, and right now at age 26 he looks great at the plate.  He is not much of a fielder though.  He'd probably make a fine DH at least for his prime. 

I hope someone in the media has the guts to grill Gibbons on his decision to lose the DH instead of putting Bautista at 1B and Upton in the OF. That is an absolutely ridiculous move.

Why baseball is the best game ever, part LXVIII: like you, I wondered why Gibbons was willing to give up his DH there. (Was he worried about Bautista getting spiked, or reinjuring himself diving for a ball at first?) But it worked out in a totally unexpected way: in the eighth inning, with two out and Dickerson on second, Ryan Schmipf hit a hard ground ball down the first base line. If Smoak had still been in the game, he would have had trouble with that ball, since he is left-handed: he would have had to backhand it. But Encarnacion is right-handed, so he was able to scoop it up easily with his glove hand. The moral: it is better to be lucky than smart.

I'm not sure what to expect from Benoit. It does look like an exchange of one problem for another. It is, however, easier to teach a wild pitcher to throw strikes than it is to get a pitcher who has lost velocity to throw harder.

One odd fact about Benoit: he has pitched in 26 outings this year for the Mariners. In all but one of them, he came into the game in the 8th inning. In one of those 25, he also pitched in the ninth, but he had 24 appearances that were 8th inning only. The one exception was July 19th, when he entered the game in the ninth and got clobbered, presumably because he was out of his comfort zone.

Just looking at Benoit's chart, it looks like he has been using his two-seamer a lot and it hasn't been effective.  I'll bet that Martin cuts down on it- a fastball, slider, change combination is plenty. 

Imo there were 2 key things going through gibby's head:

1.A rusty injured Bautista wbo hadn't played the position in a couple years was not a good choice to play 1B in a late tied game

2.Plenty of confidence in letting barney and carrera hit - little difference from smoak or upton hitting again.

Which is more than enough justification imo.

and that EE made a couple crucial plays defensively at 1B and Barney had the crucial hit aren't just lucky breaks, but actual results of the thought process.

I'm hoping Benoit learns from Happ. The defense is good, there's no need to make perfect pitches every time. Just execute and let the defense record the outs.

Bo Schultz is probably the guy who goes back to Buffalo.

By the way:  after the game, the media did ask Gibbons about why Bautista wasn't moved to 1B after Upton's appearance.  He said Bautista hadn't had have enough reps at 1B.  He also said Barney was ahead of Bautista as a potential 1B, but even Barney hadn't had enough reps at 1B.   That's a reasonable point, I think, and Edwin's excellent defensive plays later in the game demonstrated that 1B is a place where experience and reps can make a difference.

I hope someone in the media has the guts to grill Gibbons on his decision to lose the DH instead of putting Bautista at 1B and Upton in the OF. That is an absolutely ridiculous move.

When Paredes was let go, I commented that with Gibbons it is likely best to return to his preferred eight-man bullpen, because he can get into less trouble with it than with another position player on the bench. On that occasion, Gibbons' decision to pinch-run Paredes ended up taking the bat out of Edwin's hands and having the game end on a Pardes at bat.

Last night Gibbons managed to lose the DH for the last 5 innings of the game. His pitching choices were determined by that situation. He was the NL team at home against an AL lineup. I don't know the last time I saw an AL manager manage his way out of his DH for the last 5 innings or more of a game.

Gibbons is what he is. He prefers an eight man pen, more frequent pitching changes and relies heavily on platoon pitching decisions. I suspect that worked for him in the minors, where I expect players have a more difficult time with platooned pitching, and that is his style. While it may be better to work with a shorter pen and longer bench with other managers, I don't think that necessarily applies to John Gibbons. Upton's value to the team will depend on how he is used. If he's going to be used in a way that Gibbons' manages himself out of his DH, we're likely better off with another reliever in the pen.

I feel Gibbons is trying hard to find atbats for the bench guys who have carried the team.
Upton should be a starter against any lefties. He probably spots Saunders and carrera spots Bautista and both will likely come out as defensive replacement.

It looks like Donaldson still has a leg problem and could use some DH time too.
Upton hasn't played 3B in 10 years, so Barney will keep taking turns there.

Hopefully, Benoit's shoulder problems are much improved and that will help with his walk problem and Hey Jason Grilli has become useful despite moving to a tougher environment -
He does look strictly like a 1 inning guy.

Schultz has indeed been optioned to make room for Benoit, who joins the team today.

Now there's nobody left to option on the entire roster (unless you're going to option Osuna or Travis, which clearly the Jays won't do).   It's a major shift towards a veteran bullpen (with the exception of Osuna and Biagini).

Of course they could still bring reinforcements for the bullpen in the future, but they'd have to DFA a veteran like Morales or Benoit, who would still have to be paid significant salaries.

I see Benoit/Storen as a challenge trade.

A solid reliever having a bad year traded for a solid reliever having a bad year.

I probably shouldn't have said "major shift" towards a veteran bullpen, since they previously had Floyd and Storen, who were veterans.  But they always had a couple of optionable younger pitchers in the pen, until now.  Probably not a big issue, but worth mentioning.

""When Paredes was let go, I commented that with Gibbons it is likely best to return to his preferred eight-man bullpen, because he can get into less trouble with it than with another position player on the bench."

but what's so important about a four man bench if you don't bother using it?

Jays are 2gms back of 1st place in the AL, 3gms back of 1st place in MLB.

Ryan Schimpf was the Jays version of Devon Travis. A guy who succeeds but without tools.

A big difference between Schimpf and Travis is that Schimpf was never a prospect. He was an org guy who was never mentioned in prospect circles and eventually showed power at Dunedin/NH when he was old for the level.

While Travis was never very highly regarded, he did make the BA Top 100 in 2014 and I believe was the Tigers #1 prospect in a very poor system during midseason rankings at the time of the Gose trade

Schimpf was last year a 27-year-old mashing in AA but had failed in two brief stints in Buffalo. He left as a minor league free agent after not being given a 40-man roster spot after 7 years!!! in the org.

This weird idea that Travis was a nothing prospect is weird.

"....He was an org guy who was never mentioned in prospect circles..."

Yes, but shouldn't a good scouting system be capable of unearthing the potential gems among the "org guys" in one's own system?  Nobody's perfect, and oversights can happen, but it's a little annoying when the team doesn't recognize the potential of players such as Schimpf, Gomes, Dyson, etc.

I don't know whether I would have done what Gibbons did, but It didn't seem clearly wrong to me at the time for reasons that have been given by others. Yes, it is unusual to give up the DH, but unusual and wrong are two different things.

The game result and the managerial decision got me thinking about why the association between managerial decision-making and one-run records is likely quite weak.  The reason seems pretty simple- a good managerial decision can help turn what would have been a one run win into a two run win almost as easily as it can turn a tie game into a one run win and a poor managerial decision can help turn what would have been a one run loss into a two run loss almost as easily as it can turn a tie game into a one run loss. 

I doubt very much that any one season would show enough to draw any conclusions-there surely has not been a club that went 30-5 in blowouts and 3-32 in one run games?

"...This weird idea that Travis was a nothing prospect..."

He specifically said the opposite.  He noted that Travis was a ranked prospect.

Not sure whether I believe the Jays when they say that upton is going to be a platoon player (think they're just tiptoeing around Bautista) but they might be telling the truth, so I wanted to check the splits.

last 2yrs:

vRHP

3B Donaldson 907pa, .314babip, 153wrc+
DH Encarnacion 827pa, .271babip, 146wrc+
RF Bautista 759pa, .240babip, 142wrc+
2B Travis 311pa, .365babip, 133wrc+
LF Saunders 307pa, .343babip, 119wrc+
1B Smoak 479pa, .283babip, 107wrc+
SS Tulowitzki 660pa, .288babip, 93wrc+
C Martin 623pa, .268babip, 91wrc+
CF Pillar 759pa, .293babip, 87wrc+

IF Barney 148pa, .322babip, 103wrc+
OF Upton 425pa, .325babip, 91wrc+
OF Carrera 320pa, .294babip, 79wrc+
C Thole 105pa, .222babip, 16wrc+


vLHP

3B Donaldson 256pa, .319babip, 175wrc+
LF Saunders 111pa, .356babip, 169wrc+
1B Encarnacion 227pa, .262babip, 138wrc+
RF Upton 178pa, .344babip, 134wrc+
C Martin 197pa, .307babip, 131wrc+
SS Tulowitzki 194pa, .370babip, 124wrc+
DH Bautista 203pa, .227babip, 123wrc+
2B Travis 123pa, .292babip, 93wrc+
CF Pillar 275pa, .326babip, 89wrc+

OF Carrera 89pa, .452babip, 145wrc+
UT Smoak 114pa, .260babip, 100wrc+
IF Barney 100pa, .303babip, 93wrc+
C Thole 50pa, .200babip, 55wrc+


I guess it does make some sense, but even then I'm not sure the offensive difference between Smoak and Upton vRHP makes up for the defensive difference, not to mention the overcomplication of using a tricky platoon involving the DH role like that.

I'd lean towards Upton playing fulltime myself.

I was agreeing with him.

BBRef indicates that the three biggest plays by WPA in baseball last night all occurred in the game here- the Kemp homer, the Dickerson homer and the wild pitch in the 12th, in that order. 

The first thing I think when I see those charts:

My word, isn't it awesome that Josh Donaldson plays for the Blue Jays??? :D

"....the association between managerial decision-making and one-run records is likely quite weak...."

I agree, and I was thinking the same thing when the Jays lost 2-1 to the Mariners.  There really wasn't a single thing that Gibbons could have done differently in that game, but it could still be used against him as part of the "one-run loss" data.  Someone suggested he could have used Smoak as a pinch-hitter at one point in that game, but that was probably a toss-up in terms of the chances of success.

If we're going to quibble about Gibbons, I'd quibble about his occasional decisions (like today) to rest 2 or 3 veterans on the same day.  Martin had to sit because it's a Dickey start, but why also rest Tulo and Saunders on the same day?

Yes, but shouldn't a good scouting system be capable of unearthing the potential gems among the "org guys" in one's own system? Nobody's perfect, and oversights can happen, but it's a little annoying when the team doesn't recognize the potential of players such as Schimpf, Gomes, Dyson, etc.

Every year dozens of Ryan Schimpf types are allowed to go to minor league free agency and almost none of them will ever produce even 1 career WAR.

Schimpf failed to produce at AAA Buffalo when given limited opportunity.

Big league chances are very limited on teams trying to compete. Restrictions are mostly due to 40-man roster spots . Opportunities mostly arise based on injuries and teams tend to call up guys already on the 40-man and usually prefer strong defensively-minded players as backups and infield fill-ins.

September call-ups are also somewhat limited as players need to be added to the 40-man but then are easily lost in the offseason to waivers when 40-man roster spots are needed again to sign/trade for new players.

Schimpf is a cool story, but players like him need bad teams like San Diego to get a shot because they probably never will on good teams like Toronto

"....Schimpf failed to produce at AAA Buffalo when given limited opportunity...."

He was only given 370 plate appearances in Buffalo in his minor-league career, despite his New Hampshire success.  I guess I'm saying that he should have been given a longer look at Buffalo.  He did thrive at the AAA affiliate of the Padres, which is where his potential became recognized.   I agree with all of your points about the shortage of space on the 40-man roster and the large number of minor-league free agents, but I'm just suggesting that there could have been room for him in Buffalo for a longer stint, and then maybe the Jays would have had a better chance to see what they could have had in him.

The Blue Jays will acquire a starter before the end of the deadline. It will be Sonny Gray

Schimpf is a "feel good" story of perseverance, but the man is already 28 yrs old. He's already in decline phase using normal aging curves.

There are people much better than I am at figuring out things like this, but I wonder what (non-Cuban) position players who didn't debut till they were 28 or older have gone on to produce even 10 WAR in their careers?

If I were a contender looking for buy low SP, I'd make a pitch for Shelby Miller - I think he's a solid 3/4 starter and just needs a change of scenery & the Diamondbacks may be looking to move on - despite their public stance.

James Shields, who has bounced back in a huge way since his terrible debut with his new team, is now being made available in trade. With the $$$ commitment, he may be quite affordable in prospects.

The moral: it is better to be lucky than smart.

I don't know that it's better, but it's sure good to be lucky.

I was at Fenway last night, but It would have been great to be at the RC for the last several innings once Gibbons had lost his DH. I would have been transfixed watching him try to stay afloat with his pitching staff. Normally, he would have gone to Grilli in the 10th, but he couldn't do that because the pitcher's spot in the order wasn't up for a while, thus we had three innings of Chavez. I would have been intrigued to see what he was going to do next if the Jays left the 12th inning in a 6-6 tie. Who would have been his next 3 inning reliever? Almost as much fun to watch as watching David Ortiz 'run' out the back end of two double plays. The Tigers only had 90 seconds to make the relay.

Oh and chicago only owes $22m of Shields remaining contract.

I've always been a shields fanboy. Guy is a horse.

Dean - Grilli was unavailable last night.

Osuna and Biagini are unavailable today.

I see Benoit/Storen as a challenge trade. A solid reliever having a bad year traded for a solid reliever having a bad year.

Or what could well be the truth of the matter, an expensive once solid reliever having a bad year traded for an expensive once solid reliever having a bad year.

"....Normally, he would have gone to Grilli in the 10th, but he couldn't do that because the pitcher's spot in the order wasn't up for a while, thus we had three innings of Chavez....."

I'm always a little surprised when people claim to be able to read Gibby's mind and tell us exactly why he did stuff without asking him, but here's my guess:  he left Chavez in for 3 innings because Chavez is the long man in the bullpen, he was zipping through the Padres lineup at a rate of 11 pitches per inning, and he had retired 8 consecutive hitters with zero problems until the Myers and Kemp hits.   And Gibbons wanted to protect some of his high-leverage relievers so that they would be available today, knowing that Osuna would be unavailable today.

The Fact that Chicago only owes Shields $22m & he's been pitching well lately makes him more desirable and likely more expensive prospect wise & besides the White Sox are usually a team that does well in trades - I think he ends up in Boston - the Diamondbacks are a different story, I think you can pull the wool over their eyes.

Tulo gets the day off with Barney at short and Saunders too with Ezequiel Carrera taking his spot.  Melvin Upton plays left field and bats cleanup (!) while Bautista DHs.  Devon Travis is moved up to the 6 hole in the lineup

I am happy the jays have their better outfield defense today, I think they are going to need it. Also glad that some veterans will get 2 off days before Baltimore series.

Shields has also "done it in the AL East" for whatever that's worth.  I wouldn't want to lose the farm over him (he might be "done"), but for the right price, this seems like a good option.  Who does he bump though?  Sanchez?

Afternoon game on a very hot day the day after an extra innings game, and it means they get 2 full days off before Baltimore.  I don't love it, but I get the reasoning, and it's Luis Perdomo they are up against.  Should be able to crush him with this lineup.

it's a little annoying when the team doesn't recognize the potential of players such as Schimpf, Gomes, Dyson, etc.

Dyson and Gomes were both viewed as prospects - Farrel infamously said that Dyson might have had the best arm in the org.  They were squandered away - Dyson due to bad roster management, and Gomes as a throw-in for a failed trade.

Schimpf was wayyy lower on the radar than either of those guys ... think Casey Lawrence lower. 

I like the Benoit move but I do hope that the team cuts bait on him fast if he can't be effective out of the gate.  As ChinaFan noted, nobody on the active roster can be optioned.  I was hopeful with the Storen DFA that we'd be able to audition a few Buffalo arms to get the most effective guy - that could be Benoit for sure, but if not, DFA. 

Heck, I'd consider a DFA for Cecil if he continues to struggle- he was bad before the DL and he's been worse since coming back. 

Schimpf never did anything to show the Jays he was a real prospect. You can't wait forever. And his current success is probably short lived.

"....Schimpf never did anything to show the Jays he was a real prospect...."

I don't want to belabour the point (and I already have, I know, sorry), but one final shot at this:  my point is that Schimpf did hit everywhere except during his brief stint in Buffalo.  He did "show" the Jays that he was a good hitter at every level except his limited Buffalo stint.  He wasn't "on the radar" as a prospect, and he wasn't on anyone's lists of top prospects, but that's exactly my point:  why was the consensus wrong?  Some guys are late bloomers and shouldn't be automatically discounted just because they are old for their level.  Good scouting should unearth the good hitters who "aren't on the radar" and "aren't considered a prospect" and aren't on the prospect lists and have been undervalued by the consensus.

"it's a little annoying when the team doesn't recognize the potential of players such as Schimpf, Gomes, Dyson, etc."

I'm not sure I can think of any other names to fill in that "etc." there.

And of course, Pillar, Loup, Biagini etc are these types of players too.

Guys, if Dyson was still a Jay we wouldn't have had the Bat Flip Heard Round The World.

there surely has not been a club that went 30-5 in blowouts and 3-32 in one run games?

There's an excellent question in there - biggest gap between one-run games and blowouts. Alas, when I constructed the Big Honking DataBase some ten years ago, I never thought of adding team records in Blowouts, probably because they weren't readily available at the time. I should probably steel myself for hours of Data Entry, and add it to the mix. Because that's something I find myself Wanting To Know!

I can confirm that no one has ever gone as bad as 3-32 in one-run games. The all-time worst record in one-run games is 7-31 (Boston Braves 1935.) Those Braves were almost as bad in their other games, and have to be regarded as one of the worst teams in MLB history.

I can tell you the biggest differentials between one-run games and all other games.

The three biggest winning percentage dropoffs in one run games?

1. New York Yankees 1935 (.341 in one-run games, .705 in other games)
2. Cleveland Indians 1948 (.333 in one-run games, .696 in other games)
3. Toronto Blue Jays 2015 (.349 in one run games, .655 in other games)

The NL leader is the 2003 Atlanta Braves.

The three biggest improvements in one-run games (these should all be terrible teams, of course:)

1. San Diego Padres 1974 (.660 in one-run games, .252 in other games
2. Kansas City A's 1955 (.667 in one-run games, .303 in other games)
3. Detroit Tigers 2003 (.514 in one-run games, .192 in other games.)

These six teams played anywhere from 30 to 47 in one-run games in those seasons.

it's a little annoying when the team doesn't recognize the potential of players

You will find that every organization can sing many, many verses of the same song, all about the One That Got Away. That's just the way it goes. Every player has potential, every last one of them - it's why they were signed to professional contracts in the first place. Organizations regularly have to make decisions about these guys before they realize that potential.

I wouldn't describe losing Ryan Schimpf as annoying. Every team loses these types of players and it's best not to think about it too much. Especially when the guy fails at AAA even though he's old at 27. Besides, for a guy who seems to understand the value (or lack therof) of small sample sizes you're making a lot out of the guy's first 100 major league ABs.

CF, Schimpf has 1 real tool - power. He's not a plus defender and has no speed.The only place he hit as well as he has with the Padres is in New Hampshire. NH is known for it's short RF porch - perfect for lefty hitters.

The only full season Schimpf spent there, he slugged .428 with 23 HR's as a 25 yr old. For context, Anthony Gose slugged .416 there with 16 HR's as a 21 yr old. Gose never hit more than 7 HR's in any season before or since.

Can we DFA Dickey if we need to dump a pitcher...... please!!!!

Team really hasn't played well since the break.

Wake up already.

but here's my guess: he left Chavez in for 3 innings because Chavez is the long man in the bullpen, he was zipping through the Padres lineup at a rate of 11 pitches per inning, and he had retired 8 consecutive hitters with zero problems until the Myers and Kemp hits.

The pitcher's spot was also coming up in the bottom of the 12th (where Barney eventually doubled) with the DH surrendered. If you put another reliever in for Chavez to start the 12th, you either have to take him out after 1 inning or let him hit. That doesn't leave too many guys left in the pen in a game that looked like it could turn into another Goins/Barney relief pitcher kind of scenario

Agree with what Hypobole said about Schimph. Showed good power and also walks a lot.

But was rated a poor defender. So where and when do the Jays play him? Pinch hitter would be good. Also he chose to be a Minor league FA. The Jays decided not to add him to the 40 man roster.

Goins was drafted the same year as Schimph. But Goins has a spot as a utility player. 2nd, 3rd, SS and learning the OF.

The loss of S Dyson was a mistake.

Dickey, man.

Maybe Thole can get us back in this one with some big hits.

Team really hasn't played well since the break.

They've been pretty underwhelming against some poor to mediocre pitchers. Hopefully just a mini rut, and not a particularly bad one given they're in second. So just wait till they start clubbing..

Just put up one clean inning here to give the top of the order a chance and I'll blame the hitters for this game instead of you, R.A.

tired of him.

Dickey, man.

Yeah, it's probably not the best idea to have the 41 year old guy work on three days rest. Especially when the temperature at field level is a little like the surface of the sun. But lining up your three best starters for the Baltimore series (and getting Estrada some extra rest while you're at it) seems a good idea.

"....it's Luis Perdomo they are up against.  Should be able to crush him with this lineup...."

Or maybe not.  You never know.

Honestly, I'm not upset at starting Dickey today. He's clearly the team's worst and least reliable starter. As is, he was scheduled to go Friday against Baltimore, and does anyone really want to see him pitch in a meaningful divisional game right now? The Jays were better off risking a loss today and being fresh for the weekend with their 3 best SP's going against Baltimore.

The offense laid an egg anyway today so even if Estrada went it probably would not have mattered.

turns out it was just a rough patch a few weeks back for biagini, not just a regression to mediocrity. he's been really really good this year.

turns out it was just a rough patch a few weeks back for biagini

Well, that's a relief. If he'd been bad for all but a few weeks of this season, he'd be the next Johan Santana. Thank God for reasonable statistics.

Jesse Chavez pitched 3 innings last night - I would like to see him get the next Dickey start, maybe 4-5 innings and go from there. Seems the Padres got a nice arm in Luis Perdomo in the rule V draft.

Parker,

You may benefit from reading some of Ugly's posts twice.

"Well, that's a relief. If he'd been bad for all but a few weeks of this season, he'd be the next Johan Santana. Thank God for reasonable statistics."

still waiting for an example.

Thanks, dalimon5, but I don't know if anyone has enough free time to read his posts twice.

"turns out it was just a rough patch a few weeks back for biagini, not just a regression to mediocrity. he's been really really good this year."

Yeah, I really didn't understand the posters who wanted him dumped back to the Giants a while back. We fully understand SSS,yet too often can't help ourselves from making judgments based on exactly that.

I love knuckleball pitchers and Dickey appears to be a good guy but geez is it getting to the point where the Jays might need to cut him loose. Not just yet but boy it must be tempting.

They didn't get the win, but they lineup up their 3  best starters for the Orioles series and they rested as many players as they could.

Bautista doesn't look ready and there is something awkward about a team managed by Mark McGuire hitting homeruns like we're back in the steroid era. 

I'm trying to guess which examples bug Parker so much. Based on his comment about the cubs yesterday i'm guessing he's upset about my stats which demonstrate how awesome our kids are, probably because it doesn't fit his preferred narrative.

I wonder which example bugs him the most, though?

Is it Sanchez being the Cy Young favorite?
Osuna being one of the elite RP innbaseball?
Is it Travis following up last year's elite intro with more elite play this year?
Is it Pillar's continued super elite D?
Is it that even our one struggling kid in Stroman still has very good underlying numbers across the board?

I dunno, maybe Parker is still trying to pretend this is a pedestrian, unimpressive group of young talent AA left us with?

That was likely me talking about Biagini Hypobole, and while I'm happy to be wrong, I most definitely didn't want him 'dumped back to the Giants'.  I was concerned about the run of poor outings he had, and the inflexibility of a contender carrying a rule v guy.  He had a rough June, and if it continued, returning him would have made sense - but he's had a strong July, and carrying him til Sept should be easy - but this was not a given when I raised the issue.  I also talked about a phantom stint on the DL as a means of keeping him while possibly improving the pen. 

At the time I was concerned about Biagini, I also wanted possible DFAs for Storen, Cecil and Morales if they continued to struggle.  The choice to keep Biagini does not happen in a vacuum.  The Storen DFA was the right move, and I want the FO to be equally aggressive if Cecil continues to struggle, or if Morales / Benoit are ineffective. 

All you get with relievers is SSS - was the DFA of Storen based on SSS?   

This playoff race is too close to waste any time on assets for next season (at the time, potentially Biagini) or sentimentality (potentially Cecil) or sunk costs (potentially Morales and Benoit). 

I'd be willing to risk losing Zeke on waivers as well if there is an upgrade available. 

"Yeah, I really didn't understand the posters who wanted him dumped back to the Giants a while back. "

Yeah well even I wanted to bump his down to lower leverage work.

though I guess today was pretty low lev. hmm...has him getting lower lev been a thing? I seem to remember him still getting some high lev recently but i'm not sure.

a team managed by Mark McGuire

Ouch. Maybe if he were a hall of famer he'd get some respect.

I love knuckleball pitchers and Dickey appears to be a good guy but geez is it getting to the point where the Jays might need to cut him loose. Not just yet but boy it must be tempting.

I know exactly how you feel. But they'll need to find a starting pitcher who is better than Dickey. I don't think they have one yet. Hutch isn't it, and I don't think Chavez is either.

I was at the game.  First impressions of Melvin Jr and Benoit:

• Melvin Jr. hasn't lost a step at all.  He was flying around the bases on Pillar's double. 
  
• His timing at the plate seemed a little off, but otherwise he looked all right.
• Benoit is as slow as Jason Frasor out there....may the spirit of Mark Buehrle infect him
• I think that Martin will do a good job handling him....4 seam fastballs up and down, in and out...change to the lefties and the occasional slider...more sliders to the RHBs...he probably should be throwing many more fastballs than he did today

I don't agree with the decision to bring back Dickey on 3 days rest, with no one there to do long work behind him because of the extra inning game last night.  I know why Gibbons did it, but I still don't agree.  The message to the club between the rest for Martin, Saunders and Tulo and the usage of Dickey out of order was that the game wasn't very important.   

Bautista doesn't look himself to me.  He is going to get challenged a lot more in the next couple of days.  Pussyfooting around with him is a poor strategy and I'm pretty sure that Showalter will have noticed.  As it is, I wouldn't have him hitting leadoff.  He runs poorly and he's got to get on base at his usual rate to make it a good strategy- I don't think that is reasonable to expect from him just yet.. 

For what it's worth, I think that both Hutch and Chavez are a little better than Dickey at this stage in all of their careers.  But it's close.  If you are going to use Dickey, the ideal situation is one where he goes 7 or 8 innings if he has it and is pulled relatively quickly if he doesn't. 

All you get with relievers is SSS - was the DFA of Storen based on SSS?

When FB velocity is down substantially and there is massive ineffectiveness, then yeah, the DFA makes perfect sense, even if relievers are always SSS. That said, he may rebound in Seattle. However even if he does, the Storen DFA and trade was the right move.

At this time, I think Hutch is probably better than Dickey but only marginally so. I do not expect any trade for a starter. The price is simply too high and the available level of talent available too low.

I've noticed a re-occurring pattern on this site where Dickey has a bad stretch and people get down on him and then he gets hot again and people grudgingly admit that maybe he's not quite as terrible as they originally imagined he was. I think at his worst, yes, Hutch and Chavez are better -- overall, Dickey is stronger than either of those guys. Don't forget, he took one for the team here by going on less rest than normal. He'll get hot again -- just watch.

During his tenure in Toronto, Dickey has allowed 4.45 runs per game.  In 2016, the figure is 5.35 runs per game.  Given the more favourable run environment of 2016 and Dickey's age, it's probably reasonably to expect 5 runs per game from here on out.  Chavez allowed 4.3 runs per game as a starter in Oakland in 2014 and 2015.  Given the difference in the home parks and the 2016 run environment, I think that he would give up about 4.8 in the rotation in Toronto. 

I think the thing about Dickey is that he is maddeningly inconsistent, not just from game to game, but even from inning to inning. When he throws a poor knuckleball it just floats up to the plate like a batting practice pitch and a good hitter will drive it a mile. I recognize he pitches well at times, but I'm never comfortable when he is in a game because it always feels like something bad is about to happen.

So Hypobole - and everyone else - how do you improve the pen going forward?  I'd argue that with the one run losses, it's our achilles heel, and I'd further argue that with the Chapman deal, the price of elite relievers is beyond our means currently.

Be specific - 'jason grilli type deals' are super appealing, but who / how, specifically?

I was encouraged by Benoit's inning.  He certainly looked better than anything Storen has shown this year.  Facing five batters, Benoit had good swing-and-miss stuff, and his fastballs were routinely clocked at 95.  He logged two strikeouts and allowed no hits.  He did allow 2 walks and required 25 pitches to get through the inning, which isn't good, but I felt that he was narrowly missing his spots.  He wasn't wild -- he was throwing close to where he wanted it to go, but just slightly missing.  This might be an adjustment that Russell Martin and Pete Walker can help him with. 

Morales looks like the weak link in the bullpen.  He might be the next to go, as a DFA, if the Jays are able to pick up another pitcher before the trade deadline.  He might be okay as a LOOGY or a mop-up guy if the Jays want to use him that way, but his stuff seems too soft to be sustainable.  Of course I'm basing this on a tiny sample.  But I'm also aware that the Jays hesitated for a long time before finally bringing him back to the majors at the absolute last minute.

"....he (Benoit) probably should be throwing many more fastballs than he did today...."

The fastball looks like his "out" pitch -- he struck out Kemp almost entirely on fastballs (94 and 95 mph) for his final out of the inning.  He did use a changeup to strike out Rosales earlier.  I have a feeling, based purely on speculation, that he'll have to keep using a lot of off-speed stuff to set up the fastball for strikeouts.  Otherwise the hitters will just wait for fastballs.

If the Jays traded Dickey and replaced him with Chavez (and Thole with maybe a better defensive back-up C), I don't think the difference would be that noticeable at all. I don't see Chavez as a very good RP, but he was a solid back-end starter in Oakland, and projections had him around a 2 WAR before he was relegated to the pen full-time. I'd have no issues with replacing Dickey with Chavez down the stretch. Or Hutchison for that matter.

The issue is whether they want to risk losing DIckey's (possibly mediocre) innings in August/September when Sanchez and Stroman are going to reach innings totals they've never had to deal with before. Outside of Chavez and Hutchison, the Jays don't really have anyone ready to step in, so they'd have to weigh the risk on that one. Plus, Dickey's been a very good 2nd half performer in recent years, so as bad as he's been since the break, he might be hitting his stride soon.

I share the frustration with him, though. If he was a conventional SP who was just an average/mediocre innings eater, it would be easier to live with. But a mediocre knuckleballer who needs a personal catcher can be incredibly frustrating because when he's off, he's really off, and there's really nothing that can be done about it.

Gibbons resting a bunch of starters and pitching Dickey on short rest so they wouldn't have to pitch him against Baltimore, while smart, is a telling sign.

So Hypobole - and everyone else - how do you improve the pen going forward.

jerjapan - I highly doubt you can find any posts of mine suggesting we should trade for this guy or that guy. To be honest it's not my fascination whatsoever.

I do think we have a smart front office and they'll do what they feel is best for the team now and going forward.

Benoit's out pitch is a splitter. He was already striking out more than one per inning, so that won't be the problem.
Walking 2 guys in the heart of the lineup because they won't chase isn't a big deal.
He's the type of reliever that will often leave runners on base.

I think I heard someone say they're going to try to teach a splitter to Schultz while he's in Buffalo as his offspeed stuff isn't good enough.

Storen's first outing as a Mariner did not go so well: 1.1 IP, 4 ER. He may not be done switching teams.

Got him out of Toronto just in time.

I highly doubt you can find any posts of mine suggesting we should trade for this guy or that guy. To be honest it's not my fascination whatsoever.   I do think we have a smart front office and they'll do what they feel is best for the team now and going forward.

You can't have it both ways man - you express critiques of comments about how to improve the team - that, in itself, is a commentary on how to manage the team.  So you don't want to make suggestions, no problem.  But don't critique the suggestions that you find problematic and pretend that you don't have an opinion. 

Jerjapan, you can be a blowhard sometimes.

You demand I give specific trade ideas and if I don't kowtow to your demand, then I should keep my yap shut.

Unreal.

It seems the Jays are interested in acquiring a starting pitcher. I think there is a good chance they will do so in the next few days, although it might be a relatively minor acquisition. Who might the team be chasing? Here are a few possibilities:

NYY: Pineda, Sabathia, Nova
TB: Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Moore
CWS: Sale, Quintana, Shields
Minn: Santana
KC: Volquez
Oak: Gray, Hill
LAA: Shoemaker, Santiago
Phi: Helicon
Atl: Teheran
SD: Cashner, Ross
AZ: Miller

I'm sure I'm missing some potential SPs - does anyone have any other suggestions?

My guess is that the Jays are probably looking for a competent starter who won't cost too much in terms of prospects and salary/years. Controllable beyond 2016 would be a plus, as long as the risk isn't too high. Sort of the pitching equivalent of Melvin Upton Jr., give or take.

So, that probably excludes the top names (Sale, Archer, Gray, Teheran, Quintana).

It's hard to envision the Jays trading within the division, which could rule out TB and the Yankees.

Hill or Cashner would seem to be more realistic targets. Someone like Hellickson could also provide rotation insurance. I would love to see the Jays step out of their comfort zone and pry away Quintana, although that would require at least a couple of the Jays' top prospects.

That should read Hellickson, not Helicon (autocorrect issue).

Don't trade for a starter unless it is either a bona fide star ace or unless it is basically free. Hutch or Chavez are not much worse than random non-star starters. Sanchez should start the rest of the season as the plan (barring only injury). Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, and Stroman is a totally reasonable playoff rotation.

"Storen's first outing as a Mariner did not go so well: 1.1 IP, 4 ER. He may not be done switching teams."


In 2014 and 2015, Storen's Hard% was 23.2% and 25% respectively. This season it is at 37.7%. His velocity has dropped by 2 mph. So while his secondary (non-ERA) numbers indicate that he should improve, I just don't see it unless he learns how to pitch with less velocity.

On the other side of the coin, Benoit's throwing as hard as he always has. Much like Grilli, he battled injury early in the year and control issues. It is a challenge trade, but I like the Jays chances of getting the most value out of it.

With the arrival of Benoit, it might be possible to change Biagini's role so that he had some longer outings (up to 3 innings).  If you have two pitchers like that in the pen, it makes it easier to address Dickey's inconsistency.  When he's bad, you can safely pull him for one of Biagini or Chavez.  It sure would have been nice to have Dickey out of yesterday's game after 4 innings (and conversely for him to go 8 innings when he's on). On Tuesday night,  Biagini had thrown one inning and Chavez had thrown three, so this wasn't possible.

I just noticed that Osuna has the most fwar AND ra9war by age 21 of any reliever in MLB HISTORY. by a healthy margin.

and he has 40% of his age 21 season left to play.

Jays have signed Eric Kratz to a minor-league deal as catcher insurance.  His hitting this year has been worse than that of Thole.  I suppose it suggests a possible concern about Martin's health, and a possible feeling that Jimenez isn't ready.

His name is correctly spelled Erik Kratz of course.

His slash line this year is a rather sad .094/.105/.153 in just 87 plate appearances.  In 2014 he did manage a .634 OPS between the Jays and Royals. 

People keep bringing up the 10/5 rights of players (JB,EE) as a reason why a player would not get traded but I would think most potential FA who are likely to receive a QO would be open to an in-season trade because it removes the QO and likely adds millions to their FA value, especially for an older player seeking that last significant contract.

Exactly 85bluejay, I think most pending FA's would prefer a trade for that reason.

It seemed a given EE and Jose would receive QO's this off season. Eddie still seems a no doubter, but Jose?

Jose wRC+

Mar/Apr 146
May 108
June 92
July 22

Yes, June and July only comprise 53 and 14 PA's respectively, but between his age and severely diminished defensive skills, is there going to be $16.7 million in value there?

Multiple people have questioned the FO decision to extend Smoak at AAV $4.125 million for 2 years, and I'm not arguing one way or another on that decision.

Bautista 2016 300 PA's .224/.357/.439 115 wRC+
Smoak 2016 265 PA's .237/.332/.431 105 wRC+

Bautista accepting the QO would be fine with the front office, I'm sure. Term is more important than the AAV, and you can't go wrong with a one year deal.

It won't happen though, unless he's injured or tanks so badly in Aug-Oct that he doesn't want to hit the market.

I think Bautista is just having a bad season. I would still give him a QO or sign him to a short term contract. Would not go 3 years at this point....that has changed. A trade is not outside the realm of possibility.

No way I give a QO to Dickey or Saunders however.

trading Bautista when trying to a win a world series is beyond insulting.

Baseball is life.  But you knew that already. 

And then there's Ichiro Suzuki who transcends tribalism.  Long may he live and prosper.

what if he has asked for a trade Ugly? Could be pissed Jays do not intend to offer a contract other than a possible QO?

I don't envision a scenario in which JB doesn't get a QO from the Jays - if JB gets injured tomorrow and misses the rest of the season or hits below the Mendoza line the rest of the season - he still gets a QO

uglyone - what if Jose was traded for an MLB starting pitcher of equivalent value?

what team is going to trade one of their best SP when trying to win a world series?

that's as far fetched as trading bautista.

It's not far fetched at all if that team has a surplus. Not suggesting that it will happen...but it is not far fetched. He could be traded to Houston for prospects. I know that would upset you even more but it is not far fetched although unlikely. Anything is possible if he has requested a trade.

Thanks for those two links, Mike.  Both are excellent reads.

Jerjapan, you can be a blowhard sometimes.

Guilty.  It may not be obvious, but I'm working on it.

That said Hypobole, I wasn't trying to demand specific trades ... that's not my game either.  I was wondering what your thoughts were on the pen overall - 7 or 8 men?  DFA anyone?  trust the FO?  Promote Barnes et al?

Lots of in-house options besides Barnes - Girodo, Loup, Tepera, and I hear Blake McFarland is back after his injury.  Heck, there are legit interesting relievers in AA - we have a bunch of guys that might have a big-league role. 

Agreed with Dewey Mike - love the Ichiro story.  As you might guess by my moniker, I lived in Japan for years and that experience added so much to my baseball fandom.  Youth teams drilling under a highway overpass, talking with the local veggie vendor about the Yakult Swallows, and of course, the umbrella dance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJXhXyj0_mg

It is hard to overestimate how big of a deal Ichiro to the States was at the time - all the Mariners games were on TV, and he was front page news daily.  Man, I wish we'd signed him ....

Pen 7 or 8? - In all likelihood, going to be 7 for the next month unless the team is OK with losing Carrera. There may be a position player injury they could fill with a reliever on a short term basis, I guess.

Barnes is quite intriguing.

Girodo is a September LOOGY, maybe a good LOOGY.

Loup has regressed the past few years - his biggest strength now would be hitting an opponent without it seeming intentional.

Never did like Tepera, but they keep calling him up, so management sees something I don't.

Actually watched McFarland pitch once last year, but I didn't like what I saw.

Yet another +1 for the Suzuki piece. It was way too good to be at ESPN's site. Not sure how that happened.

Here's a reasonable statement upon return from a PED suspension.  It's not that hard.

Is there even a remote possibility that Colabello is innocent? I think that he used, got caught, and continues to lie about it. But I just wonder if inadvertent PED use could have actually happened.

The Ichiro story is great - thanks for the link.

Cola and some of the other guys busted for this particular PED have been pretty passionate in their claims of innocence ... proof of nothing in itself, but I do see this particular case as one that could theoretically have lead to a false positive. 

An interesting blog post today on Schimpf at Fangraphs...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-post-that-ryan-schimpf-made-necessary/

also interesting, and consistent with what ChinaFan was writing, in 2014 Marc Hullet had this to say "Toronto hasn’t been very successful at identifying big league role players, passing on the likes of Ryan Roberts, Erik Kratz, Jonathan Diaz and Darin Mastroianni (among others) — although in some cases to later re-acquire the player — so it will be interesting to see if the organization starts to learn from its missteps." 

thanks for the thoughts on the pen Hypobole ... essentially, I agree with your take.

Good find on the Hulet quote, except he's not exactly making a great case.

Granted, Ryan Roberts was a bit of a miss totaling 6.1 fWAR career, though almost the entirety of that in 2 seasons, 2009 and 2011.

The others career fWAR

Kratz 0.9
Mastro 0.3
Diaz -0.1

Ezequil this year has 1.1 fWAR in 221 PA's for context.

I just noticed that Osuna has the most fwar AND ra9war by age 21 of any reliever in MLB HISTORY. by a healthy margin.

As usual for uglyone's posts, this is an actual statistic. Maybe while he's doing his fact-finding, he could also provide some relevant statistics on the total number of impact pitchers who were bullpen arms at age 20.

What are you trying to prove with these numbers, ugly? Mariano Rivera wasn't even a full-time reliever until his age-26 season.

Great work as usual, though. You should quit whatever it is you do for minimum wage and focus on finding a PR shill position of some sort. Your spin efforts are really quite impressive.

Wow! Somebodies having a bad day.

Hmm, so you don't think that's an impressive stat, Parker?

weird. you seem so wowed when kids on other teams put up numbers at young ages compared to others who haven't got the same opportunity.

(and are you now asking me to pro-rate that WAR over a standard amount of innings for a fairer comparison with guys who didn't get the opportunity for as many innings? )

While it would be unusual to see Bautista traded, it is not without precedent. The most relevant example that comes immediately to mind is that of the 2004 Red Sox and one Nomar Garciaparra. Garciaparra of course was younger than Bautista, but was similarly in his walk year after an off-season of unproductive negotiations and spent a great deal of the first half injured. The relatively new front office led by Esptein made the decision it was time to move on from Garciaparra and the rest as they say is history.

Wow! Somebodies having a bad day.

I might have had a drink or two, but my day has been pretty good. I'm not even at the point yet where I start correcting anyone's grammar.

I mean seriously - a pretty much unprecedented feat by Osuna (subject to doublechecking), in the history of baseball, and you are angry about it.

kinda weird, no?

"I might have had a drink or two"

Isn't that what people say after about 6?

weird. you seem so wowed when kids on other teams put up numbers at young ages compared to others who haven't got the same opportunity.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ComicallyMissingThePoint

When those kids put up numbers as starting pitchers or full-time position players, yes.

All I asked was for you to compare Osuna to other prospects who were converted to full-time relievers by age 20.

You should quit whatever it is you do for minimum wage.

Come on Parker, agree with Ugly or don't, but this is offensive. 

I mean come on Parkie, calling me biased when Sanchez is a Cy contender at age 23 and Osuna one of the best RP in baseball at 21 doesn't really work, know what I mean?

you should just thank me for educating you about how good our kids were before the rest of baseball media tells you you're allowed to appreciate them.


but this is the one that really sets you off, isn't it?


2B Travis (25): 437pa, .343babip, 123wrc+, 6.0awar/650
RF Betts (23): 1324pa, .315babip, 124wrc+, 5.9awar/650

SP Sanchez (23): 31gs, 6.4ip/gs, 71era-, 94fip-, 4.5awar/32gs
SS Bogaerts (23): 1747pa, .346babip, 105wrc+, 3.2awar/32gs

CF Pillar (27): 1270pa, .302babip, 86wrc+, 4.0awar/650
CF Bradley (26): 1176pa, .307babip, 97wrc+, 3.7awar/650

SP Stroman (25): 45gs, 6.3ip/gs, 95era-, 83fip-, 3.7awar/32gs
3B Shaw (26): 621pa, .321babip, 109wrc+, 3.5awar/650

CF Pompey (23): 146pa, .284babip, 88wrc+, 2.5awar/650
UT Swihart (24): 383pa, .357babip, 92wrc+, 2.1awar/650

RP Osuna (21): 113gms, 115.0ip, 57era-, 67fip-, 1.8awar/32gs
SP ERod (23): 30gs, 5.6ip/gs, 107era-, 112fip-, 1.8awar/32gs

SP Hutch (25): 73gs, 5.5ip/gs, 121era-, 105fip-, 1.3awar/32gs
C Vazquez (25): 377pa, .284babip, 61wrc+, 1.2awar/650

Do they still have bouts like Ali-Frazier cause I think this one's going the distance.

Here's the concluding paragraph of that FanGraphs article about Ryan Schimpf:

Schimpf isn’t going to be able to keep this up, but he does have power to all fields — and if he can keep his strikeouts manageable, say under 30%, he can be a league-average player with 20-plus-homer pop from second base. The ceiling might not be high, but he’s raised his floor as much or more than anyone in baseball over the past few months.

Funny how some guys have all the tools and don't know how to use them and then along comes a guy with just the basics and shows just how tough the prospect game can be.

Aww come on, jerjapan.  You did this the other day, and I let it go un-commented upon.  But now you’ve done it again; and before much longer you’ll be back in a classroom.   Gotta pay attention, dude.  Past tense of “lead” is “led”.   No mas.

"....Toronto hasn’t been very successful at identifying big league role players, passing on the likes of Ryan Roberts, Erik Kratz, Jonathan Diaz and Darin Mastroianni (among others)...."

I agree with hypobole's point that most of Hulet's examples are poor ones (except for Roberts).  But in addition to the examples that I mentioned yesterday (Schimpf, Gomes, Dyson), you could also add a couple of other examples of prospects who were under-appreciated and let go: Anthony DeSclafani, an undervalued throw-in in the Marlins trade, who has a 3.83 ERA in 40 games for the Reds over the past two seasons;  and Dawel Lugo (traded to Arizona for the long-gone Cliff Pennington), who produced a .863 OPS as a shortstop in the High A level this season, was promoted to AA and has a .809 OPS as a 21-year-old shortstop with apparently decent defence at the AA level.

Of course any organization has hits and misses.  I don't mean to imply that Toronto is worse than other organizations in identifying good prospects.  We could easily cite many examples of prospects or fringe players who came to Toronto and performed better than expected.  Or we could identify lots of prospects who were traded away by the Jays and never developed into anything significant.  In those cases, Toronto correctly identified their potential or lack of potential.  Kudos to them in those examples.  I just find it interesting to identify the misses as well as the hits.

The Hulet quote was from 2014, and definitely not all of those guys panned out as contributing roll players, it just stood out to me in the context of the discussions around Schimpf.  I also found it interesting in the wake of Atkins talking about developing roll players via the draft (can't recall the source) - perhaps he too shares Hulet's POV.

Dewey, I chuckle a bit every time I see you've typed my name - as in, 'whoops, what did I do this time?' - but I appreciate you keeping me on my toes!

Lets say the Jays pick up a reliever or assume Sanchez goes to the pen. All relievers are out of options, who gets dropped?

Osuna, Cecil, Grilli seem safe.

Biagini needs to stay or go back to the Giants.

Chavez, Benoit and Morales are left. I assume Morales or Benoit would get dropped.

"....I assume Morales or Benoit would get dropped...."

Based on yesterday's game, I'm guessing Morales would get dropped.

I say just let Sanchez finish the year in the rotation. Have him skip a few starts here and there, and/or give him extra rest when possible, but he's been so good this season and the window to win a title is here for the taking.

I've never been a believer in the Verducci Effect (pitchers get hurt all the time regardless of workload), but I do prefer having pitchers have their workload gradually increase, and I have concerns about how long Sanchez can keep this up as his innings go into unchartered territory for him. However, at this point, as long as his velocity is good, his mechanics remain consistent, and he's not tired, then I'd just keep it going. His mechanics have always been a bit questionable. Him staying healthy long-term may not have anything to do with his workload.

I am not sure that sending him to the pen would be any less stressful as he would be throwing harder and up/down etc...Perhaps the choice should be between allowing him to start or shutting him down.

You don't shut down you best pitcher when you're in a pennant race, unless you have to.

Relievers become more important once you reach the playoffs.
As a starter, Sanchez would throw 6 or 7 innings one or twice in a series.
As a reliever, he would throw one inning every game, ideally against the heart of the lineup.

The O's didn't have the bullpen to sustain Jimenez's 5 innings and the lead is now 1.5 games.

That should be an interesting weekend series.

On your toes, jerjapan?!  . . .  “roll players”?  Do they work in a bakery?  Race cheese-rounds down hillsides?  Do gymnastics?

You’re just doing this to torment an old man, aren’t you? . . . “roll players”.  Sheesh.

Although I admire the recent efforts that attempt to quantify the injury risk for pitchers, I believe, like most things in life, that EDSIT (EVERYTHING depends on the situation).

Sanchez is a big, strong, extremely well conditioned 24-year old pitcher in his 7th professional season with no history of arm trouble. He's having a Cy Young caliber season on a playoff contender in a "go for it" year. Virtually everything favors him staying in the rotation for the rest of the season... Yes, there's evidence that CORRELATES a significant innings increase to future injuries, but CAUSATION has not been proven (and may never be)... and the most recent evidence (from Waterloo University: https://uwaterloo.ca/news/news/inning-limits-dont-prevent-mlb-pitching-injuries) suggests that Biomechanical analyses are much better indicators of future injuries than innings increases.

I'm clearly cherry-picking examples, but Chris Sale (71 IP as a 22 y/o, then 192 IP as a 23 y/o) and Madison Bumgarner (141 IP as a 19 y/o, 194 IP as a 20 y/o) are recent examples of successfully enduring major innings increases, both at a younger ages than Sanchez.

I'll be incredibly disappointed if Sanchez is moved to the bullpen this season based on the scant & conflicting evidence available.

I don't see how you move Sanchez to the bullpen but I would like the Jays to use a sixth starter some when they can to smartly limit the innings Sanchez and Stroman throw.

WPA has its failings.  Take last night's Red Sox-Angels game.  The crucial last play is attributed to Brad Ziegler.  I've never understood why players afflict damage to watercoolers after a bad at-bat but never (that I can recall) after a bad defensive play.  I guess it's kind of lame to throw your glove at it and punching it with the bare hand is risky. 

Such a terrible play by Ramirez.  He had plenty of time to throw out the runner at the plate. He only needed to pause for a micro-second to steady himself before throwing.  Instead, for unknown reasons, he rushed the throw, and of course threw it wildly, and the tying and winning runs score. It looked like a mental error, more than a physical error.

It's really hard to believe that Ramirez was at one time a shortstop.  I guess Gary Sheffield was a shortstop when he was 21 too. 

For all the grief the Boston front office is taking for the Price contract, it's the contracts to Sandoval and Ramirez that will be their burdens. Ramirez seems destined for DH and Sandoval for, well, who knows? A buffet table on a cruise ship? Is there even room for Encarnacion on what many are presuming is his inevitable destination? Just how cluttered at the right end of the defensive spectrum does this team want to be?

Speaking of buffet tables, perhaps the Sox will eat the Sandoval contract. 

the grief over the Price contract is probably just premature schadenfreude.

Price is 3rd in the AL in fWAR. And his ERA stopped exceeding his fips a while ago after his horriric unlucky start.

First 7gms: 5.9ip/gs, 6.75era, 2.99fip, 3.10xfip
Last 15gms: 6.8ip/gs, 3.25era, 3.39fip, 3.23xfip

Price is a stud.

Jayson Stark weighs in on the Aaron Sanchez dilemma. One brief takeaway - don't bother counting innings.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/tradedeadline_sanchez/when-comes-aaron-sanchez-toronto-options-easy

"You should quit whatever it is you do for minimum wage."

LOL wow.

I guess thats what UO gets for writing something that another poster doesn't agree with!

Hopefully Donald Trump will fix this.

Price is a stud.

Glad he's turned it around. One of my favourites that, like Winfield years ago, we only had for a short period of time. And Price never picked off any pigeons..

Or was it seagulls..

Hopefully Donald Trump will fix this.

He alone can fix it.

Or was it seagulls..

Seagulls. A flock of them. Winfield ran. He ran so far away. But the coppers nicked him in the end.

"Price is a stud."

I heard he turns into a pumpkin in October.

Price is giving up more hard-hit balls by far and more line-drives by far than this career norms.  It's led to a higher BABIP, a higher HR/FB rate and a lower LOB rate than usual for him, but I don't think that is an accident.

As far as his path for the season, he indeed started out the season very poorly but he picked it up in May and early June.  His seasonal ERA on June 19 was 4.24 and it is 4.26 now.  In the 7 starts since then, he has had 2 terrible starts, 2 meh starts- non-quality, 1 good start, and 2 eight-inning shutouts. 

The club has provided him with 4.96 runs/game support and is 11-11 in his starts.  I don't imagine that they are happy about this- his 3.2 fWAR be damned!

Ramirez seems destined for DH and Sandoval for, well, who knows? A buffet table on a cruise ship? Is there even room for Encarnacion on what many are presuming is his inevitable destination?

Edwin would be the Sox first baseman. Hanley missed an easy popup on Tuesday night which fans were on him for as it was part of the Tigers' scoring. The next day he sat out. Last night he threw the game away in the 9th in Anaheim. Hanley isn't filling Edwin's spot, he's moving over for him.

Price Monthly Splits:

Velo: 92.0, 92.6, 92.9, 93.9
ERA: 5.76, 4.62, 4.08, 2.80

they may not be happy yet, but they will be!

I don’t see how the sox spend more money on 1B/DH.

Moncada their top prospect really only has 3B open to him as it is.

That means they have Hanley and Panda already making $40m to fill the 1B/DH slots, with Travis Shaw and Sam Travis as their other readiest contributors, both limited to 1B/DH as well.

This is a team that is already a luxury tax team this year, and will impose further penalties bybdoing that twice in a row. And their owner has already been vocal about the luxury tax line being significant for them.....and if they drop further down the standings I'm not sure he'll be any more eager for it.

Not to mention that pitching should be a clear priority for them anyways.

Well, it isn't a one-year deal, and maybe he comes back strong over the next two. 

My guess is that he ends up with an ERA of about 4.  He hasn't faced a good lineup at home for a while.  Getting lit up by Minnesota at Target isn't a good sign for dominance.

Bautista leads off and plays RF today, Barney bats ninth and plays second, and Travis sits.  If Travis is healthy, I wouldn't do that.  I'd have him in there and leading off for this series. 

Or you could look at bWAR, which has Price at 2 to Happ's 2.3 and Estrada's 2.8. On the matter of stats I would agree with others. Why are some posts of yours using fWar, some using bWar, and others splitting it? It makes it awfully hard to follow your points when you keep changing the stats you make comparisons on.

To be fair to Gibby, We don't know how well Travis shoulder is holding up - maybe a bit of preventative medicine.

Apparently it's because Barney has hit Gausman well in the past.  Small sample of course.  But it's also probably true that the Jays are being a little protective of Travis, given his long injury rehab.  They've given him 2 consecutive games off in the recent past, even when he was hitting well. 

If Travis' shoulder needed a rest, it would have been better to play Tulo on Wednesday and let Barney play at second base.  Gibbons was clearly aiming for his best lineup in the Baltimore series. 

"Or you could look at bWAR, which has Price at 2 to Happ's 2.3 and Estrada's 2.8. On the matter of stats I would agree with others. Why are some posts of yours using fWar, some using bWar, and others splitting it? It makes it awfully hard to follow your points when you keep changing the stats you make comparisons on."


I noticed that too. No sign of RA9-WAR either.

Seagulls. A flock of them. Winfield ran. He ran so far away. But the coppers nicked him in the end.

And then came the painting.

Great call by Showalter on 3-1 to beat the shift. And execution.

ach. of course his bwar won't look good as we know is era ain't hot right now. we know that part looks bad. the fip and xfip are meant to show that the flipside, especially as they are in line with his career norms, and bis era has been in line with them other than the first u starts of the year.

if you want his fwar/ra9war average per 32gs it's 4.2.....which is not up to his usual standards but is really good.

Not trying to suggest he's been great or even typical price this year, no interest in pretending that horroble start didn't happen....just that the majority of signs point to him being just fine.