Wow, what happened to Sonny Gray this year ?

A little less sunny. A little more gray.

Reports out of Oakland are that Rich Hill will start Sunday.

What happened to Sonny Gray?
It's the same thing that happened to Marcus Stroman...they're both on my Fantasy Baseball team. It's the kiss of death.

It's the same thing that happened to Marcus Stroman...they're both on my Fantasy Baseball team. It's the kiss of death.

At least those two fellas are still pitching. I took Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller. You could probably call that the smooch of death.

Wow, Rowen - hadn't noticed his recent dominance. He's the submariner right? Looks to be a classic AAAA type player - elite minor league numbers, barring a lack of Ks, but he's only had one cup of coffee in the bigs.

Which poster(s) was it that was talking him up for a promotion last year?

Rowen is 27 and butts head with every sidearmer and submariner he meets that has had success at the major level. It's a good story of perseverance.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160624&content_id=185934714&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t422&sid=t422

Are the Jays going to bring Rowen to show his skills ? Maybe Rowen would remind Beane of Bradford, then we can deal with Beane like how we get Donaldson. Not that we can get Donaldson's calibre but the trade would be better than some random guys?

Ugh. I hate that fat dork of a pastiche of actual baseball professionals.

Who's doing the PBP for the Jays tonight? He sounds familiar, but I get the impression he's never watched a baseball game in his life.

Did Oakland's game ops staff just play Mengden off the mound with "The Breaks" after that inning?

Also, did Josh Reddick lose a bet? Careless Whisper as a walk-up song? For real?

Marcus Semien does not look like a shortstop to me. If you can't make that play up the middle, it's a very bad sign.

Mengden was better than his line tonight.  The A's defence is a shadow of what it once was.

Careless Whisper as a walk-up song? For real?

Top shelf. I think he's used it in the past, along with a litany of pro wrestling themes. My vote for 2016 MLB champion is Kike Hernandez, who uses "Pony." (Your Blue Jays nominee I think is Saunders, or maybe Biagini, though I thought Pillar using "Lush Life" was pretty good.)

You have to feel for Mengden, who's been burned by a weirdly sloppy game from Vogt, the Semien grounder, the Pillar catch, and the dreaded Blue Jays superstar strike zone. But it's great to see the hitters set the tone for the second half with a ton of opposite-field hits.

You have to feel for Mengden, who's been burned by a weirdly sloppy game from Vogt, the Semien grounder, the Pillar catch, and the dreaded Blue Jays superstar strike zone.

A lot of pitchers are going to have a bad time playing in Oakland, at least until they trade Vogt. He makes J.P. Arencibia look like a catch & throw guy.

Too bad about Mengden though. he really looks like a ballplayer with his moustache and his high socks.

Oops. Bye bye, Alonzo. Also Melvin. Hah. Nice to see the Jays get a terrible call like that in their favor once in a while.

Reddick and Davis have been all over Stroman all night. They earned those cement mixers. This looks like it'll be a memorable game one way or the other...

I can't believe the Jays aren't demolishing these palookas by a 12-0 score by now.   This is a very winnable game against a not-very-good team.  Very frustrating results so far.

More one-run magic at work.

Blergh.  I guess the majority of the blame has to be laid at Stroman's door tonight, but the Jays will have to do better than this against the league's mediocrities if they want a successful second half.

Nah. The key, as always and as usual, is to stay away from one run games.

And the Jays shouldn't have been anywhere near a one-run situation with an opponent as weak as this one.

I think they started with Stroman because his last 2 starts were decent and they were afraid he'd lose his focus during his time off.  At least I was happy he lined up with Rich Hill, so at least we had a good chance of winning the other 2 games. Then they pushed Hill to Sunday...

Maybe he shouldn't have gone to Cabo....

I keep thinking of writing "struggles" with an o.

Stroman and Storens are both tied at -0.4 bWAR, Cecil is at -0.3.

Everybody on the round table was saying that the Jays need an end of the rotation starter.
They all think Sanchez finishes the year in the bullpen.

I had some thoughts in the bottom of the fourth and the top of the fifth last night- I hung in until Vogt's homer before packing it in on account of an early morning.

Stroman did not have good control or movement on his pitches from the outset, perhaps because he last pitched 9 days ago.  The Jays had just scored 4 runs in the top of the fourth to take a 7-3 lead. In the bottom of the fourth, Vogt singled.  Then Semien and Alonso struck out- Alonso's on a 3-2 pitch that was clearly ball 4 (Alonso and Melvin got tossed for arguing).  And then there was the Smolinski at-bat.  First, Russell Martin missed an easily catchable pitch up and away on his back-hand side (tipping off the end of his glove).  He has 6 passed balls this season, a high figure for him when not catching a knuckleballer, and I'll venture a guess that 4 of them have been in this location.  It may be that his neck injury makes this play harder for him.  The 3-2 pitch is up and out of the strike zone, but Smolinski swings and grounds a 3 hopper up the middle for a run-scoring single to make it 7-4.

At that point, I would have decided that Stroman ought to be lifted at the end of the inning because he just didn't have it.  I might have had a different approach if the team was playing its 4th game of 17 in a row or something, but coming off the All-Star break and with 2 off-days in the next week (and Stroman scheduled to come back again in Arizona), it was a good time to lean on the bullpen. Jesse Chavez for 3 innings would have been perfect.

In the top of the 5th, it was one pitch that got me.  I'll set the scene. Saunders walks and Martin singles, so it's runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out.  Tulo lines a 3-2 pitch to deep right and Saunders advances to 3rd (throughout the first 4 innings, the Jays had done a very nice job of taking what the pitcher was giving).  Up comes Justin Smoak.  In his first at-bat, with nobody on, the A's threw him a change low and away and he smartly lined it into left-centre.  The first pitch from Hendriks in the 5th was in the same location, but Smoak tried to hit a 6 run homer about 450 feet to right feet and got nothing but air.  I knew what was coming next.  Two fastballs up and in later, he walked back to the dugout. 

Check the egos at the door.  The pennant race has begun.  No more sticking with pitchers who don't have it to give an opportunity for the cheap W.  No selfishness at the plate. 

And as for Careless Whisper, I am fine with it.  Let a thousand bats boom.  I don't care if the music fits- a riff is always good given the short span and lyrics that might mean something could be cool too.  You could have Wagner's Ride of the Valkyries, Aretha's Respect or Rock Steady, Daytripper (maybe the fans will scream roundtripper if it's the right situation),  Stevie Wonder's Superstition, Springsteen's It's Hard to be a Saint in the City, Scar Tissue or Song 2, Ana Tijoux's Vengo or whatever.

Speaking of Aretha, would it be unnerving if Roberto Osuna entered to "Say a Little Prayer"?  A little more subtle than Hell's Bells but maybe it fits. 

Jays extend Smoak for 2 more years at approx. 4 mil per. Not a big Smoak fan myself.

crap game followed by a crap signing. crap.

I'm with Alex O - Saunders wins walkup music of the year.

You'd think that Shapiro and Atkins could find a better hitter if they're willing to invest $8-million in the coveted position of "platoon 1B."  

Smoak's slash line is .234/.333./.402 this season.   Shouldn't be hard for the front office to find a hitter who can improve on that line in 2017 if they were serious about it.

It does imply that Bautista won't become the full-time 1B for the rest of this season.  If the Jays have guaranteed a further $8-million to Smoak, as they now have, they're not going to bench him for the rest of the year.

Wow. What a bizarre extension. Were they really worried about losing Smoak in the offseason?

If it were up to me, I would have DFA'ed Smoak right after Bautista returned.

The only thing I can think of is that management / coaching thinks Smoak is just about ready to break out. I really don't see this happening though. Or maybe they're thinking of next year: if they think Edwin won't sign a team-friendly deal Smoak could be a low-cost 1B option. Still, he's a pretty uninspired choice if you ask me. His fielding isn't even that good, according to the advanced metrics.

This is a guy with 0.1 WAR this year and 0.5 for his career. Over nearly 2800 plate appearances. Blech.

"....No more sticking with pitchers who don't have it to give an opportunity for the cheap W...."

You're making an assumption without evidence.  (Unless you're able to read Gibby's mind.)  Gibbons left Stroman in the game after 4 innings because he had only thrown 79 pitches and had a three-run lead.  It wasn't intended to get him a "cheap win" for his "ego."  You've got no evidence for that claim.  Gibbons left him in the game because Stroman is one of the two top young starters on the team, and you don't develop their pitching abilities by yanking them after 79 pitches with a three-run lead.  Stroman has had good games and bad games this year, but he hasn't pitched badly enough in a large enough number of games to have zero confidence in him.  With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, you can criticize the decision, but I think a poll of managers and analysts after 4 innings would have found virtual unanimity about leaving Stroman in.

The front office may have felt that Smoak was the least worst option at first base for 2017 and possibly 2018, the reasoning being something like:

- Encarnacion and Bautista will likely depart as free agents after the season

- Even if Encarnacion re-signs, he's more of a DH than a starting first baseman

- Even if Bautista re-signs, he's not going to agree (at least not yet) to being converted into a first baseman - and it's unclear whether he would even be good at the position

- There aren't any good first baseman available on the trade market (at least not at a price the Jays are willing to pay)

- The Jays probably aren't going to get involved (or win) the bidding for any major 2017 free agents, as the upcoming free agent class is weak and the bidding for the better players is going to be competitive. So it's better to make a pre-emptive strike now and focus on obtaining higher-value players at other positions (which could include DH/corner outfielder, of which there are more available on the trade and free agent markets)

- If Smoak fizzles, the Jays can eat the contract without too much pain

"Uninspiring, but pragmatic" - the Shapiro way?

Don't get the Smoak extension. He is a replaceable player at a position with a lot of depth and where the Jays could easily have other players play. Still, it's not a lot of money and Smoak does have a little value. It's not a good signing IMO but not one that will make a difference either way.

I agree with Stroman being left in. Long break or no, I think it's generally a bad habit to pull starting pitchers after 4 innings unless you absolutely have to. Pitching is always a battle, so it's not a certainty that Stroman would continue to suck, or that Chavez (for example) wouldn't suck even more. In the latter case, your bullpen is pretty much screwed for a while after.

One more thought on the Smoak contract.  If the Jays wanted to upgrade their 2017 lineup (after the presumed departure of 2 or 3 free agents), 1B would have been one of the easiest places to upgrade.   On the trade market or the free-agent market, a big-hitting 1B wouldn't be nearly as costly as an outfielder, since the defence is so much easier.   To settle for Smoak, who isn't going to get much better at the age of 30 and is now lacking any further stadium advantage since he is 2 years removed from Seattle, smacks of a definite lack of ambition.

I wonder if the Smoak signing means that Rowdy Tellez will be another team's first baseman of the future?

I'm struggling to even see the "pragmatic" part here.

If the Jays have guaranteed a further $8-million to Smoak, as they now have, they're not going to bench him for the rest of the year.

Maybe it's the other way around.  Having all the guaranteed money he wanted, Smoak isn't going to throw a fit if he doesn't play much.

On the other hand, if he's not worth playing then why are we guaranteeing him money?

On the plus side, there's nothing blocking Tellez from claiming first base next year.

Tellez is minimum 1 1/2 years away. He needs at least a full season in Buffalo.

it's just weird. his "resurgence" in toronto has meant him hitting exactly as well as barney and carrera these past 2yrs, except with no defensive or baserunning value.

are they going to cost that much? and if so, aren't they more important to re sign?

The question is, Smoak compared to what? If your alternative first baseman is Bautista or Encarnacion, are you willing to pay market value for them this off-season, despite the likelihood of injuries and declining performance throughout that (possibly four- or five-year) contract? If not those two, which free agent or trade target would you go after between now and spring 2017, and what resources (prospects or cash) would you relinquish to make that happen?

It seems to me that there will be a lot more outfielders than first basemen available this off-season.

"Tellez is minimum 1 1/2 years away. He needs at least a full season in Buffalo"

you think?

he's hitting better, and for longer, than guys like benintendi and moncada who are considered to be imminent mlb callups.

Re-signing Barney would be fine as long as Goins doesn't play.

"The question is, Smoak compared to what? "

we would be better off with barney at 1B.

At that point, I would have decided that Stroman ought to be lifted at the end of the inning because he just didn't have it. I might have had a different approach if the team was playing its 4th game of 17 in a row or something, but coming off the All-Star break and with 2 off-days in the next week (and Stroman scheduled to come back again in Arizona), it was a good time to lean on the bullpen. Jesse Chavez for 3 innings would have been perfect.

I was watching with a couple of friends and it seems we followed the same emotional curve. Stroman wasn't mastering the lower half of the plate, like he usually does when he's "on". His pitch count was high and it was obvious he was struggling. We were hopeful Gibby would pull him after Smolinksi's single in the 4th. It was very frustrating to watch him give up the 2 run shot to Davis. Nobody was interested in continuing to watch after Vogt's shot.

This is mostly on Stroman for pitching poorly but Gibbons gets a solid assist for sitting on his hands while his starter thoroughly finished his implosion.

Buffalo is in a League were you see a lot of sinker ballers and junk pitchers.
The problem with AAA pitchers is that often they can't execute well enough to take advantage of a scouting report.

Who's the last hitter who needed a year at AAA? Pillar? Pompey? Not quite the same thing.

Tellez as first baseman of the future.

Relax. Jesus Montero and 3B Matt Dominguez are playing in Buffalo, not to mention surprising help from outside of the organization. If former Jays prospecty counts, Art Charles -- aged 26 next season -- is hitting well in an independent league. He or some other batter signing with Buffalo is not surprising.

Smoak is being paid at the rate of a 0.5 WAR player.  That's about what he is.

I am anticipating that Encarnacion and Bautista are gone after this season, Tellez will be called up in May or June of next year (all things being equal) and after that Smoak will be a role player.  It is definitely a cautious move.  You might be able to get a better player on the market, but you might have to spend more money and take a little more risk.  I concur with the consensus here that it would be worthwhile to take the risk and spend more money on a player who comes with higher expectations. 

This contract might be a sign that Rogers has told Shapiro not to expect any significant payroll increase despite the terrific attendance and broadcast numbers.  On the more optimistic view, the contract might instead reflect Shapiro's preference to spend dollars elsewhere than at first base. 

Smoak has been worth 0.5 war in his entire career.

If you can't find that kind of production from the waiver wire, you're not much of a gm.

It's important to not just look at the bottom line of his career on fangraphs in this case.  Smoak ought not to be starting against LHP, and hasn't been doing so this year.  I am pretty sure that Shapiro will go out and find a platoon partner for him.   Against RHP, he's a 107 wRC+ hitter over the last 4 years.  The numbers say he's an average to slightly below average defensive first baseman.  Subjectively (including scooping), I think that's maybe a smidgen on the negative side.  I've got him as average.  He is, of course, slower than molasses.  That profile all adds up to a serviceable and better than replacement level role player. 

Early in his career, he had way too many PAs against LHP as clubs wanted to find out if he would develop as the scouts and draft order suggested he would.

platoon partner for Smoak will either be Chris Colabello or Jesus Montero.

yeah, but a 1B platoon 107wrc+ is hardly good.

to me this kind of move is both literally throwing money away and blocking an avenue of easy potential improvement.

but I'll stop whining about it now.

I would like to suggest that Smoak is not blocking anyone, and can be replaced at any time when there is a better option.
This is risk-averse behaviour. I get it, but totally, "meh."
I hope he's just taken longer than normal for the patented toronto bat-wakeup

I dunno, 2yr + option means he's not losing his job anytime before mid 2018 at the earliest, when there's an argument to be made he should lose his job right now.

That being said, as for the other downside Atkins just swore this move would have zero impact on our ability to sign anyone so that's nice....as long as we never hear even a peep about payroll parameters going forward.

If we get Bautista or Edwin back to play some 1b / DH, I can handle Smoak as a defensive caddy / occasional relief for veteran legs.  But if we are waving goodbye to both and Smoak is half of the starting platoon, I'll be pretty concerned about ownership.  IMO, resigning one of EE or Jose is possibly the best value for us on the FA market this coming offseason - and I still think EE could be a fairly simple signing for us. 

It's a cheap enough deal that Smoak could be traded pretty simply (if, say, Tellez wins the job), although i think the thought that he can be more than he is has been (thankfully) laid to rest.

All season, who has been the most replaceable position player on the roster?

So... extend him? Why?

Smock is not going to block anyone. He is making little enough money where if he doesn't produce, Jays can move on easily. It is, as others pointed out, a cautious move but certainly not one that will block a prospect or a better performer.

I don't understand this extension at all. The biggest weakness on the team from a position player standpoint has been 1B, and they just extended part of the problem. I've said many times, I've unjustifiably been optimistic that Smoak might be a late bloomer (power + patience combo), but for the past two years he's been a tick above replacement level, and he hasn't taken advantage of Colabello's suspension by performing when given a reasonable amount of playing time.

This is the type of player you settle on when all your off-season options fail, not someone you prioritize months before the off-season begins. Maybe they are holding out hope that his potential turns into performance, but at age 30, that's becoming more of a reach at this point. Even if they waited until he hit free agency, they could have offered this same type of deal then, but at least they could have tried to acquire an upgrade with that money. Not a fan of this one.

However, I don't think this blocks anyone. If Tellez is for real, then I doubt Smoak is going to prevent anything.

And today again they're sitting travis to get barney some deserved playing time. But really, smoak should be the one sitting.

There is pretty much bupkis available for free agency this coming off-season. Signing Smoak gives them a safety-net. If they find someone better, he's not making enough money that it will be hard to dump him. I don't see what the big deal is.

Also, there is a nonzero chance that Smoak finds another gear and significantly outearns his modest contract. He's still only 29. The Jays have had success with other hitters in this age range (Encarnacion, Bautista, Saunders).

Josh Thole has had a nice day at the plate, but that base-running error was egregious and very poorly timed.  It could be 6-5 now...

A's using the long ball to beat the Jays.....who saw this happening coming out of the break?

Red Sox have acted early & decisevely to add to their roster by trading prospects. Jays are 4 games back in the East after todays action. Losing a series to the A's is simply ugly. Now to avoid the sweep at the hands of Rich Hill.

Well, again, they have to stay away from one run games.

Someone else can do the next series thread. Should have known better to use the scene from the movie where the A's got the upper hand on Shapiro.

Players on last year's Jays team repeatedly said they felt energized by the July acquisitions of Price, Tulo, Revere, Lowe, and Hawkins. I'm sure the current Red Sox players are feeling a buzz from the acquisitions of Pomeranz, Hill, and Ziegler. It seems as if Shapiro is counting on the team continuing to generate high revenues and fan interest, even without any significant acquisitions this month. We'll see whether that approach pays off.

To me, it looks as if Dombrowski is going hard after the division title in 2016, whereas Shapiro is playing the long-term sustainability game. To the extent that there may not be the opportunities to make any major upgrades this year, Shapiro's approach is understandable (if frustrating for some fans, given the team's performance over the last couple of days).

I will take my share of the blame. I swore that they would do better in one-run games in the second half. Never tempt the fates...

My strike zone twitter feed tells me that we have a contender for the worst called ball of the year.  One of Loup's pitches to Lowrie was called a ball but was square in the middle of the plate and belt high.  I haven't seen "0% call it a strike" before.

Part of me says this is obviously a good move, and the negativity baffles me. The new Smoak contract is obviously a net asset. I'm pretty confident you could trade it for nothing without much trouble this winter. Smoak did get an inside-out single and two walks yesterday. Maybe he's coming around. You might even get something in return for him. And if Boston hands your departing sluggers $400 million, Smoak's a nice security blanket. So, just sign him now and don't think twice about it.

The other part of me thinks "sustainability" is code for laziness, and Smoak's just been penciled in with a Sharpie.

Oh, and if people want to wager at even money that the Blue Jays will be above .500 in their remaining one-run games, I will gladly accept any bets. (It's a push if they finish exactly .500 or hire a new manager.)

I don't think the risk is that "sustainability" is code for laziness. The risk is that it's code for more parsimony.

I dislike losses.

Looking deeper into Smoak's numbers, and maybe on the devil's advocate side, his BB%, Hard%, Soft%, LD%, and GB% are the best of his career so far this season, and in some cases significantly better than his norm. To put it in layman's terms, he's walking a lot more, making more hard contact, less soft contact, hitting more line drives, and fewer ground balls. The slash numbers and wRC+ don't reflect anything different from his norm, though.

It's pretty clear that Smoak has a lot of fans in this front office, even when AA was GM. If they feel he's a 0.5 WAR level player as is, then $4M is probably fair if you value the cost of a win at $8-9M, but my guess is they are paying market value (in terms of $/WAR) and expecting better performance (the peripherals starting to translate into better offensive numbers).

Let's hope they are right. When they acquired Bruce, I looked at his peripherals, and his 2015 numbers (which were bad) were right in line with his peripherals when he was good, so an offensive bounce back looked plausible. So far, that appears to be the case (he's a pylon on defense, though). Maybe they look at Smoak in a similar light.

4 days off and it feels like April all over again. It's not like they decided to start the stretch with their 2 worst pitchers, or is it?

".... If they find someone better, he's not making enough money that it will be hard to dump him...."

If this was the Red Sox or Yankees, I could see it happening.  But there's little in the track record of the Jays ownership to suggest that they would dump a player who is guaranteed $8-million in salary (unless he falls into Ricky Romero depths of implosion). The Jays are a parsimonious bunch, and they don't throw money away.  If Smoak continues to perform at approximately his current level, he would continue to hold a lineup spot, while failing to provide much beyond replacement level.  And I don't think he has a lot of trade value either, especially considering that the Jays acquired him on waivers in the first place.  I could be wrong, but I just don't envision the Jays making much of an effort to upgrade at 1B after investing $8-milllion in the incumbent.

I wouldn't want to make a bet where winning would leave a sour taste in my mouth

I think of it as insurance against something I know is going to happen.

It's called hedging.

8M is small enough that I don't see the Jays ownership being consulted.
Shapiro prefers to have experienced players on the bench.

way to start the 2nd half right, guys!

And I still don't get how locking in for multi years to a replacement player is "insurance". To me, it's the exact opposite. Unless you mean "insuring that we're stuck with a bad player", I guess.

I mean Smoak is literally the least useful player on the entire roster. What a weird choice to extend him. And by weird I likely mean dumb.

"The other part of me thinks "sustainability" is code for laziness"

or code for timidity.

"If they feel he's a 0.5 WAR level player as is, then $4M is probably fair if you value the cost of a win at $8-9M, "

Interpreting the average FA war price to mean it's a good idea to pay that market rate for a halfwar player is probably not a good idea.

If you pay 25 0.5war players $4m you have an horrific roster that costs $100m.

Atkins: "Everything’s a balance. We’re not focused on one versus the other. We’re focused on winning this year and obviously every team would say that. You just don’t want to compromise your future in how hard you try to do that. We’ll keep those things at the forefront, but we’ll 100-per-cent recognize the opportunity that we have in front of us, with a very good team. We’ve been playing very well and hopefully and seemingly peaking at a very good time. We’re going to look to complement the team every day that we wake up.”"

breaking news - they really really want to add to the team but only if it doesn't cost too much.

Not that it matters a whole lot, but kinda interesting. On Sirius XM MLB network they're talking about the trade deadline and there being zero interest in Danny Valencia. The host stated that a GM told him they were interested in Valencia until another front office guy told him that Valencia has the worst make-up he's ever seen. Could be Blue Jay related?

"....8M is small enough that I don't see the Jays ownership being consulted...."

Nobody said that the owners would have to be consulted on this contract.  The point is that Shapiro & Atkins know that the owners would be displeased if they guaranteed $8.2-million to a player and then quickly benched him to make room for ANOTHER first baseman who is acquired at high cost.  So they are unlikely to do that.  They don't want to appear that they are wasting money, so they will now have a financial incentive to keep Smoak as the main 1B for the next two seasons, regardless of who might become available on the trade market or free-agent market.

"...Shapiro prefers to have experienced players on the bench..."

But there's nothing in his history to suggest that he likes $8.2-million players on the bench.

breaking news - they really really want to add to the team but only if it doesn't cost too much.

Where can they add to the team and it doesn't cost too much ?

1) callup from Buffalo (Burns)
1a) signing free agents for callups in the making
2) trade away extra parts for assets (LeBlanc)
...
any ideas ?

Heard Ross Atkins on radio friday, he stressed many times how difficult it will be improve the Jays roster this season - he seemed to be prepping the fanbase to not expect any significant upgrades.

"Interpreting the average FA war price to mean it's a good idea to pay that market rate for a halfwar player is probably not a good idea."


I'm not saying he should get $4M because of $/WAR. I'm saying at the current value of a win, they likely envision him 'earning' the money he is getting but think he will outperform that (otherwise the signing even from their perspective makes no sense). The money they did give him was likely based on his arb numbers (a slight raise) and gaining years of control plus an option. I doubt $/WAR factored into how much they paid him (it shouldn't have), just the evaluation of whether it would be a worthwhile investment.

Personally, I would have waited until the off-season to see what was out there. First base is a position that the Jays have been incredibly weak in, and won't have Edwin next season to bump it up (in all likelyhood). Settling for Smoak in July is highly questionable. I just hope the upside they clearly see in him is something that can eventually manifest into performance. I saw the same upside in 2015 and 2016, but he hasn't shown that to be real as of yet.

I hope Atkins is more intelligent than his media quotes make him appear to be.

I think Atkins is plenty intelligent. I'm not sure he thinks the same of us, though.

Where can they add to the team and it doesn't cost too much ?

Promote Danny Barnes - 2 more IPs in Buffalo with 3 more Ks yesterday - a multi-inning reliever with a WHIP approaching .5, and 10 times as many Ks as walks in nearly 50 IPs. 

But that means an 8 man pen or cutting a non-performer like Storen.  Tough pill to swallow, but we can't just keep giving key runs away. 

Codyla, that's an interesting tidbit about Valencia.  I made light of his release last year but he just keeps hitting - I assumed he'd built up some legit trade value.  I'd certainly prefer him to Smoak right now. 

"...another front office guy told him that Valencia has the worst make-up he's ever seen...."

I don't know about Danny Valencia, but I do think "make-up" (personality, character, call it what you will) is one of the baseball factors that is least understood and obviously the least measured by analytics.  I mentioned Yunel Escobar in another thread: continuing to hit well, yet already on his 5th team and still getting into weird scraps on the diamond.  If a player is disruptive, selfish, cliquish or lazy, it can damage a team's performance, even if standard data doesn't measure it.  And I think there are many times where we accuse a manager or GM of making a "stupid" decision (based on our interpretation of the statistics) because we're not aware of the many intangible factors that can be involved.  It's just a reminder that baseball decisions involve a lot more than just statistics.

the same rumours about valencia were whispered last year when he was tossed. apparently everyone loathed the guy.

If that FO guy had seen Shea Hillenbrand's makeup in the past, then Valencia's must be dismal.

Good point!

Atkins and Shapiro do not want to trade prospects. That's pretty much the long and short of it. They are trapped between wanting to preserve the farm system while also trying to take advantage of this window that may not be around after this season. My guess is they'll make a small move or two for relief help, or maybe move Storen in a salary neutral dump for some other struggling player, but nothing on par with what Boston has done and what Baltimore will probably do.

This team, on paper, is good enough to win the division and/or one Wild Card spot as is. The key will be how much the other teams improve and whether the Jays have another extended run in them.

Wow... after watching the last couple of games, I really, really don't like this PbP guy. Who is it? Matt something?

Sure he is no Shulman, but he even makes me miss Buck.

Now they are talking about the game being worse because we don't have managers going out and acting like kindergarteners? Ugh.

Devlin is the raptors play by play guy. pretty bush league to have him calling jays games.

still better than rob faulds though.

"They are trapped"

they've got a great roster, huge attendance and ratings, and plenty of prospects.

they are anything but trapped.

Happ looking dominant again.

I thought he was a little fortunate early in the year but there's nothing lucky about what he's done his last few starts.

Read the rest of my post to see how the word 'trapped' was used. It wasn't used to describe the team's roster, attendance, or farm system.

If you let Happ face Valencia and Davis, you might as well let him face Butler who is 0 for 2.

It's like Gibbons doesn't understand that other teams use pinch hitters.

you've been trying to argue their amazing situation is a tough one since the offseason. it's not.


and another blown lead. 3rd time this series. wonder how this one turns out.

Line drive off a cruising Happ's pitching arm, messes him up just enough to knock him outta the game. Bullpen coughs up the lead instantly to the not-at-all scary Yonder Alonso.

This just might be one of those series.

The timing of pulling happ had everything to do with injury, and not much to do with which hitters were coming up, I don't think. The walk was the last straw.

Ugly, we can rehash that debate in the off-season as neither of our stances have changed, but nothing you are bringing up has anything to do with what I said above. They want to balance winning in 2016 with further building up the farm. Hence they are trapped between those two objectives. The quality of the roster has nothing to do with it.

Cecil had no idea where the pitches where going. Thankfully the A's hitters didn't feel like walking.

this series is excruciating. whoever said it feels like April is bang on.

I have never seen what Junior Lake did. He hit the ball off the label, it slowly went forward, then his barrel whacked it into centerfield for a single. Seems absurdly lucky and it was a big hit in what is hopefully the winning rally. Nice to get a good break.

would love to see mythbusters try to reenact that.

I have never seen what Junior Lake did. He hit the ball off the label, it slowly went forward, then his barrel whacked it into centerfield for a single. Seems absurdly lucky and it was a big hit in what is hopefully the winning rally. Nice to get a good break.

Reminds me of what Hunter Pence did in the World Series a few years back. The pitch broke his bat, but the broken lumber connected with the ball a second time in mid-swing, creating perhaps the most unpredictable infield bounce ever.

Remember that Shapiro and Atkins are trying to prove themselves to their new employer (Rogers). Ownership is happy when the team is making lots of money. Winning a championship in any given year is secondary. Shapiro and Atkins are no doubt trying to win, but they're not going to make any expensive decisions in year 1 that might backfire on them. The goal is to have a competitive team (basically, above .500) year-in, year-out, to keep fans interested and the revenues flowing.

They aren't going to deal their best prospects for a player like Chapman or Miller, even if it improves the 2016 team's chances of winning the division and advancing in the postseason.

The injury factored in only as far as it gives Gibbons an opportunity to pull Happ without upsetting him.
The pitch count was low and the ball on the forearm was history at that point.

On the plus side, Grilli looked really good.
He wasn't there in April.

the ball on the forearm was history at that point.

Alas, the bruise and the swelling weren't.

I don't know that Chapman and Miller are on the block.
Apparently Beltran is. The Yankees will try to win the division next year, no doubt about that.

The Jays could trade a young outfielder for an established outfielder, but I don't think they'll give a top pitching prospect for  2 months of a back of the rotation pitcher.  The bullpen help will probably be Sanchez.

That last out was an echo of the whole series. I don't see a lot of trust between Saunders and Tulo when the ball is hit between them.

It's going to hurt more over the next few days.

I only got to watch the final 5 minutes of this series. I saw Saunders strike out on ball four with the bases loaded, on a pitch about 2 1/2 feet outside. Then I saw him almost little league a routine flyball into a hit. When his agent compiles a highlight reel for contract negotiations, he may opt to omit these 5 minutes.

Was anyone else having flashbacks to this game?

The best thing about Grilli, aside from his performance since the trade, is the fact that he has a very reasonable team option for 2017. He's old, but as long as he's performing, that's a no brainer option to pick up.

Saunders is reminding me a bit of Melky Cabrera in 2014 (with more power). The defense is really bad, and the offense is not something I'd bank on being sustainable. Hope he has a great remainder of 2016, but then give him the QO and hope he rejects it.

The QO is about 17 mil this coming off season. Would not QO Saunders as he is about an 8 mil player tops. I don't know either if his hitting or health is sustainable but I do know that his defence and base running are both horrible. I would revisit a trade involving Saunders and Bruce again any day. Can't happen without a third team willing to send prospects to Reds and in need of immediate OF help.

Was anyone else having flashbacks to this game?

No. And it was extremely unkind of you to remind me of it. Friggin' Milton Bradley...

Not as bad as the Felix Escalona game, I suppose.

I had completely wiped Scott Schoeneweis from my memory.

Bruce is terrible at defense too. If you don't think Saunders is worth $17 million, and is only worth $8 million, I'm not clear why you'd want to pay more to Bruce over the rest of the year and then $13 million in 2017.

"....Reminds me of what Hunter Pence did in the World Series a few years back...."

Few people realize this, but Donald Trump was so impressed by Pence in the World Series that he decided to make him his future running mate.

Given that the current bargaining agreement expires in December, I think teams will not hesitate to offer QOs. You can't destroy a team future with one year contracts anyway.

Hey, they stayed away from a 1 run game and look what happened. Do more of that, please.

I'm also in the camp of not being a believer in Saunders' offense.

They scored 2 runs in the 9th. They could have score 1 or 15, the outcome would have been the same.

They still left a ton of runners on base. Lake couldn't lay down a sac bunt when asked.
They blew a 2 run lead in the 6th when Happ couldn't navigate a gauntlet of lefty mashers a third time through the order after getting beaned twice by comebackers. Chavez was ineffective coming out of the pen. Cecil had no control and flung 2 pitches at the hitters' heads, one at the ump's head and bounced one on the ground so badly he caught Martin in the throat.

But, hey, they stayed away from the a 1 run game!

Yes, and they won. As I said, do more of that, please.

Devlin is the raptors play by play guy. pretty bush league to have him calling jays games.

still better than rob faulds though.
Devlin and Faulds are pretty much neck-and-neck to me for awfulness. Devlin actually makes me long for Buck.

Pickle juice or superglue? We never got a definitive answer on that.

Leiter tried pickle brine for years. Don't think it worked.

Pickle juice or superglue? We never got a definitive answer on that.

Urine - good hands.

I'm also in the camp of not being a believer in Saunders' offense.

Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson.
Mashing Mike has left and gone away

Simon and Garfunkel were obviously aware of the coming of free agency years before Curt Flood.

Dave Cameron makes the case for Tyler Thornburg.  I could see him working in the Blue Jay pen.

The QO is about 17 mil this coming off season. Would not QO Saunders as he is about an 8 mil player tops. I don't know either if his hitting or health is sustainable but I do know that his defence and base running are both horrible. I would revisit a trade involving Saunders and Bruce again any day.

PeterG, if you are worried about Saunders base running and D, check out Bruce on Fangraphs - he's worth 0.1 fWAR right now, vs. Saunders 1.7, the biggest reason being Bruce is worse on the bases and in the field than Saunders.

It seem every year we start having these conversations - no QO for Estrada (I was guilty of this one for most of the season last year), don't pick up Dickey's option, etc - and every year it seems that the cost of wins on the FA market just keeps skyrocketing. 

IMO, Saunders is well worth a QO and this FO won't squander a resource like him - or more likely, the comp pick, as he will get more on the FA market.  Fangraphs has his value at $13.8 million and counting this season.

To me, the harder question is do you give a QO offer to Dickey, which also seems to involve committing to Thole.  I would see him taking the QO, so my preference would be no QO, but Dickey does tend to do well in the second half, so I wouldn't rule a QO out, as crazy as that may seem. 

In an odd bit of news, Kyle Drabek is apparently signing a minor league deal with the Giants... as a shortstop.

I wouldn't qualify Dickey regardless of his 2nd half performance. Chances are he is not going to reject a 1/17 deal, and no team is willingly going to lose a draft pick to sign a 42-year old knuckleballer. There's no upside for the Jays to do it. The team would save a lot of money by just signing him to a one year deal (if they wanted him back) rather than giving him $16-17M guaranteed unnecessarily. The QO for Dickey is essentially an expensive one year extension.

Bautista, Encarnacion, and Saunders are definitely players you give the QO to. Dickey you either sign to a reasonable extension or cut ties with completely.

Offence is up in 2016.  How much?  Runs scored is at 4.51 runs per 9 IP, a little higher than in 2009 and the OBP/slug marks of .318/.422 are identical to 2009. 

Agreed right now on Dickey SK - but the FA market is pretty darn thin this offseason.  If he has another big finish?  You could do what they did with Estrada - offer the QO, and work out a 2 year deal with a lower annual value. 

Not saying they should, just wouldn't rule it out.  If the club wants Osuna in the rotation, he's likely the 7th best starting option though ...

I agree that having to carry Thole is a significant reason not to extend or QO Dickey (though Thole is better than he has shown this year). However every time RA’s age is mentioned in a negative sense, I feel this is misleading as we have no idea when that decline will start, and at which point it will be steep enough that he will no longer be an effective pitcher. I’m sure the Jays pitching / analytics team will closely monitor his physical attributes and ‘biometrics’ the same way they are doing so for Sanchez. It’s possible that even if his knuckler loses velocity, he will be able to adapt and still get outs.

When the Jays traded for him, I remember thinking the odds were at least 50% that Dickey would still pitch more innings in MLB than Syndergaard, based on the typical development and injury risk for any prospect (including guys I thought were locks like Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and closer to home, McGowan and Romero). Now that number is closer to 20%, based mostly on injury risk to Syndergaard, and that I think RA will pitch at least 3 more years.

On the other hand, sometimes I wonder if there is a reason the Jays don’t hit well for him, or play great defence behind him, and if this is likely to change. At first it seemed like just bad luck and tough matchups, but now think it could be similar to the team always underperforming vs Pythagoras. It’s kinda happened too long and often to be just luck…

I'm decided to take it upon myself to post positive Josh Thole (or as positive as one can be about Josh Thole) facts.

Over the past 30 days Thole has a wRC+ of 104, placing him 23rd among the 55 catchers who've had 20+ PA's in that period of time.

In that time he's accumulated 0.2 fWAR, 27th of 55.

In the past 14 days, Thole has quintupled his RBI total for the year - he's gone from 1 to 5.

In the past 14 days, Thole has not run over my dog
In the past 14 days, Thole has helped several old ladies cross the street
In the past 14 days, Thole has not caused any major earthquakes

In the past 14 days, Josh Thole learned the words to Blind Faith's "Can't find my way home" and put them into action.

In the past 14 days, Josh Thole has consumed a significant quantity of oxygen and has issued a non-trivial amount of carbon dioxide.

In the next 14 days, Josh Thole's new movie, The Knuckleball Whisperer, will open in theatres everywhere.

The Knuckleball Whisperer had me thinking of Mark Fidrych, which led to this Bill James anecdote:

Graid Nettles was batting against Fidrych, who, as usual, was talking to the ball before pitching to Nettles. Immediately Graig jumped out of the batter's box and started talking to his bat. He reportedly said, "Never mind what he says to the ball. You just hit it over the outfield fence!" Nettles struck out. "Damn", he said. "Japanese bat. Doesn't understand a word of English." Nettles actually hit Fidrych very well in his career, though, with a .389 average [7-for-18] and two home runs.

Funniest thread of the year so far.

Pretty great article from John Lott at Vice about Tulo's defensive influence on Donaldson:

https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/how-troy-tulowitzki-made-josh-donaldson-a-better-defender

It certainly speaks to the idea that acquiring 'winners' may have an intangible impact.

my cockles warmed a bit thinking of these two as fast friends.

at 30 and 31, and great 2-way players, these two can still be an epic core for the next 4-5yrs.

Leiter tried pickle brine for years. Don't think it worked.

I believe you're actually thinking of Nolan Ryan with the pickle brine for blisters. Leiter only had blister problems for a few months in 1990. He found something that worked and used it forever.

Then I guess pickle brine works - because I am pretty sure I remember Leiter using it.

and didn't blisters plague him his wbole time with us?

come on brain, don't let me down now.

and didn't blisters plague him his whole time with us?

Nah. Kind of a Blue Jays Urban Myth. He had an elbow problem one year, and two shoulder surgeries between the time he was acquired and when he finally got healthy enough to help the 1993 team win it all. However, Beeston and Ash spent the 1995 off-season desperately smearing Leiter in the hope that no one would notice how completely they had botched Roberto Alomar's free agency that same winter.

A lot of Leiter's health problems in Toronto can be traced back to this game, less than three weeks before he was traded to Toronto. Check the pitch count, and reflect that it was a chilly April evening in New York.

However, Beeston and Ash spent the 1995 off-season desperately smearing Leiter in the hope that no one would notice how completely they had botched Roberto Alomar's free agency that same winter.

I seem to remember the Mister Blister moniker well pre-dating the 1995 offseason free agency period, and recall it as the reason given for Leiter's long DL stints and minor league rehabbing. Of course, I also had a specific recollection of having heard John Lennon say that Ringo Starr wasn't even the best drummer on The Beatles. So there's that.

It will be interesting to see what MLB does with the Cardinals now that there is a sentence in the data breach case.

Leiter's long DL stints and minor league rehabbing.

It's weird isn't it? How some stories acquire a half-life, like plutonium. The blisters live on forever, the two shoulder surgeries are forgotten.

Ah, the Leiter Saga. The other thing always forgotten is the fact that when he was young, Leiter couldn't find home plate if you took him by the hand and led him there. After losing 1989 to shoulder surgery not long after the 163 pitch game, he was optioned to Syracuse in 1990. Where he walked 68 guys in 78 IP. He'd done stuff like that before, and would again, but 1990 really was the Blister Year, mixed in with some elbow woes. He eventually solved his problems, pitched very well as a September call-up, and made the big league roster to open the 1991 season. Which is when his shoulder went on him again, requiring another surgery and costing him all of that season. (My memory tells that Gaston was very, very upset with him for trying to pitch when his arm wasn't feeling right.)

He was finally healthy in 1992, but the Jays optioned him to Syracuse out of the gate and left him there all year (they called up Doug Linton when the major league rotation went to hell in August.) And a miracle happened. Not only did he stay healthy all year long, he finally began to show some signs that he had discovered the general location of home plate. Just 64 BB in 163.1 IPT - practically Halladay-esque by Leiter standards.

Fascinating stuff Magpie ... I totally recall that story incorrectly.  I brought the whole tale up with my GF and friend, non-baseball fans, who were watching the game Sunday where Hill was pulled for the blister.

And sad to see how poorly understood pitcher development was at the time - 163 pitches????!

But props to Cito for being irked that Leiter wanted to 'pitch through' his issues. 

Well, the blister story did go on for a while. Normally when a pitcher gets hurt, he either rests or has surgery, and he gets better. Or not. End of story. The blister problem was weird, and it took a while to find a solution.

Great stuff, Magpie. Seems like my brain failed me...

......but not about the pickle brine!

here's an article from 1988, during Leiter's rookie season before he was a Jay...

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/06/sports/kelly-s-savvy-sparks-rally.html

"Al Leiter, who hopes the pickle brine treatment has solved his blister problem, is scheduled to start for the Yankees tonight. The rookie left-hander was on the disabled list for five weeks earlier in the season because of a blister on the middle finger of his left hand and had a similar problem later at Columbus."

Of course, unsurprisingly, that home recipe didn't seem to do a damn thing for him, just like it didn't for Ryan.

It seems like his solution in the end was Glutaraldehyde, and it worked so well that he actually tried to patent it as "Leiter Fluid", which is all kinds of awesome that I never knew before:

https://books.google.ca/books?id=hYw-CgAAQBAJ&pg=PA573&lpg=PA573&dq=al.leiter+pickle&source=bl&ots=Y1IKXufJTD&sig=ELFJT_nizoz-e-7DfM3UvuaCAd8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjh5pbI1__NAhVFzIMKHb7HDlEQ6AEIOjAI#v=onepage&q=al.leiter%20pickle&f=false


The moral of the story - pickle brine is a silly old wives tale.

The moral of the story - pickle brine is a silly old wives tale.

Pickle juice, on the other hand...

Oh, very cool. I didn't know Leiter's blister issues went back to his Yankee days. Leiter Fluid!

Is there a more famous blister problem than Roger Clemens in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series?