Checking the good ol' Baseball Reference stat sheet

Bullpen Guys with no rest: Biagini (only appearance in a week); Schultz (only 2016 ML appearance)
One day but tired: Storen (33 pitches past 3 days, pitched in 3 of the past 5 days); Chavez (27 pitches past 3 days)
One day rested: Grilli (14 pitches past 4 days total one appearance); Osuna (11 pitches past 4 days, one appearance)
Super rested: Girodo (3 pitches last 8 days) So Girodo, Grilli, and Osuna should be used tonight if needed while Storen should have today off

We've never won in Coors Field and have inexplicably only scored 2.2 runs per game in 6 contests there.  Break the streak!

Girodo was sent to Buffalo. Tepera up.

Something about Pete Seeger and John Denver

What is "This Mountain is Your Mountain"?

huh - didn't realize we'd never had a win in Colorado.  I'm hoping Tulo carries us to our first victory.

I can never keep the Rockies pitchers straight, what with the ugly numbers they put up in Coors.  Any of these guys actually pitching better than they look on the surface?

And did Jeff Hoffman's heart sink when he got the news he was going to the Rockies?

Price of checking the Jays site for most recent 25 man roster. Listed Girodo when I did it. Ah well.

I'm hopeful. Both Happ and Estrada have pitched in Coors before and Sanchez has the kind of stuff that should work well there.

Sanchez has the kind of stuff that should work well there.

I dunno. Sanchez's main breaking ball is a curveball, and Coors is notorious for its effect on curveballs. They have this nasty habit of Not Breaking in the thinner air, and there's nothing easier to hit than a hanging breaking ball. Estrada throws lots of curveballs too, but a) he throws even more changeups, and b) he's been here before. He knows what happens.

[Estrada's] been here before. He knows what happens.

I should have looked that up first. In fact, neither Estrada nor Happ have pitched very much in Denver at all - they each have just 7.2 career IP. It hasn't gone well for Estrada, who allowed 12 HR and 8 ER (9.39 ERA), but Happ - very much a fastball-slider guy - did just fine (8 H, 3 ER).

That was before Estrada got on track. Nothing unusual.

It's quite literally one game, in June 2014. Which he won, by the way. The score was 13-10.

Travis' power this year is super reassuring. that was one thing about his game I worried might be fluky.

Syndergaard out of the Met's game in the fourth. Elbow trouble. Real sorry to see that.

estrada working hard for an allstar game start.

get the man some runs already.

I was hoping Tulo would be like Lawrie in the last series.

I wish they'd ejected Storen on that first hit batter.

Storen. Undone.

in coors field and losing via BBs and HBPs. nice.

that's $13m of sweet relief there.

And $157.8m of sweet hitting by the shortstop.

Didn't Storen work twice in the White Sox series? This would be his 3rd game in 4 days in that case. Was there no one else they could have gone to? I wouldn't trust 2016 Storen (minus 2 MPH + high hard%) with adequate rest, much less 3 games in 4 days.

Tough way to lose (not over yet but it's looking like it).

the SS that's been the hottest hitter on the team, you mean?

Dumb dumb anti -Tulo's. They won't be happy until we get a legitimate short stop, oh wait...

Storen doesn't have effective weapons against LHBs anywhere but certainly not in Colorado.

I do prefer relievers who throw strikes. Chavez is normally pretty good at that.

"Didn't Storen work twice in the White Sox series? This would be his 3rd game in 4 days in that case. Was there no one else they could have gone to?"

Which of the plethora of trusted arms in the Jays pen would you have chosen to bring in for the inning? Never ceases to amaze how unwilling people are to lay blame at the feet of the players. Earl Weaver couldn't have managed this dumpster fire.

Ezequeiel Carrera: Leadoff Hitter

is not a movie I care to see again.

On the Storen acquisition:

Excellent.

full credit for a perfect move.

very very happy with this move. shatkins nailed it.

meanwhile Storen is a legit frontline upgrade to the pen

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2016010822414253

you uncovered my hidden secret! dang.

I guess I was just too used to having faith in my GM's assessment. silly me.

Edwin plays SS? I'd like to see that.

Tulo coming into tonight....

Since Return: 27pa, 1.130ops, 197wrc+
Last 85pa: .976ops, 156wrc+

has EE been hotter? cool. 2nd hottest then.

Even in Storen's recent 'good stretch', his FBv was 92.1, and in some outings it was topping out at 91. He was a very good reliever prior to this season, but the drop in velocity killed him. Pitching him more often (3 out of 4 games) is not going to solve the issue. He's been getting hit hard all season.

It was a good trade at the time, but relievers are relievers. He's not the same high leverage/late inning reliever he was the past three seasons, so you can't use him as such and expect those types of results (unless he magically learns how to pitch with less velocity, which hasn't worked so far, at least not for any sustained amount of time).

Just hoping they don't get swept.

The road team has yet to win, ever, when these two teams play.

All I have to say is what the *#&@ was Gibbons thinking putting Storen in there when he has pitched in 2 of the past 3 days, 3 of the past 5 with 33 pitches in the past 3 days. If you want to lose just use a guy who is tired and hasn't been having a good year. Chavez also was tired as I mentioned above. Meanwhile Grilli and just called up Tepera are rested and ready and that was a good time to use one of them (7th inning, leading) with Osuna there for the 9th you try to get there with what you got.

I have to think Gibbons is on very thin ice and losses where his decisions clearly had an impact will hurt.

Gibbons has been making moves like this for years now - why would it suddenly put him on thin ice. If the front office wasn't already aware that they had a below average manager then efforts like today won't provide them that clarity.

On the Storen acquisition:

Storen Jays -0.1 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR

Revere Nats -0.8 fWAR, -0.9 bWAR

A classic lose-lose trade

I remember reading an article from Grantland last year that said Gibbons was one of the worst managers in the game when it came to bullpen management. I can't speak for other managers since I don't follow other teams as closely as this one, but I haven't been impressed with Gibby's pen usage the past two seasons. He's not responsible for specific relievers performing badly, but he's probably not someone who is going to maximize a pen's potential, contrary to what Wilner and other media members were parroting when he was rehired. I think Shapiro/Atkins know what he is. They are likely holding on to him since he was the manager of the ALCS team in 2015, and 2016 is basically an extension of that team. They'll likely let him live or die with this roster, and make a change when the structure/direction of the team changes. I wouldn't expect a knee jerk firing, unless things really go south in the next month, but who knows.

To me at least, AA's track record of major league manager and coaching decisions is dubious at best over and above his bizarre love for Gibbons.

His hiring of Farrell may or may not be defensible, but I remember he insisted Farrell keep both Bruce Walton and Dwayne Murphy rather than hire his own guys.

When he traded Farrell after 2012, he allowed him to take the wheat (Butterfield and Luvollo) and leave the chaff (Walton and Murphy).

AA dumped Walton, but kept Murphy another year as 1st base coach. Neither has worked in the majors since leaving.

Yeah of course Murphy hasn't worked, he retired.

Oceanbound, I did realize he had retired, but assumed it was because the Jays weren't going to keep him. However, after checking it seems to have been his decision. So my remark was specious.

FWIW, Walton has retired as well, after serving as the AAA Iowa Cubs pitching coach for 2 seasons.

The advantage for the Jays is Revere would've been stealing playing time from Saunders and Carrera (at least early on). Storen hasn't really stolen time from anyone better as the pen has been weak outside of Osuna and sometimes Biagini who wasn't kept from key roles due to Storen.

Fangraphs currently shows Storen as a -0.1 WAR player and Revere as a -0.1 as well. Both are too expensive for what they provide but I feel Storen was more useful for the Jays than Revere (220/271/277) could've been.

There is a silver lining to the bullpen woes of the moment.  Brett Cecil makes a big difference and his return is imminent. It's quite possible that he and Morales will return at the same time for the homestand.  With Grilli and Osuna holding down the 8th and 9th inning work, it should be possible for the club to be able to hold down leads the great majority of the time.

Young Core Update: No Youth Jays vs Elite Youth Red Sox

Career numbers so far:

Hitter WAR = average of fwar & bwar per 650pa
Starter WAR = average of fwar & ra9war per 32 starts
Reliever WAR = average of fwar & ra9war per 65ip

Only players who have a prorated average war over 1.0 listed.



Travis (25): 350pa, 126wrc+, 6.1war -- Betts (23): 1228pa, 120wrc+, 5.5war
Pillar (27): 1172pa, 86wrc+, 4.1war ---- Bradley (26): 1081pa, 94wrc+, 3.6war
Stroman (25): 40gs, 96era-, 3.6war --- Shaw (26): 548pa, 108wrc+, 3.7war
Sanchez (23): 26gs, 81era-, 3.6war - Bogaerts (23): 1645pa, 104wrc+, 3.4war
Pompey (23): 146pa, 88wrc+, 2.5war - Swihart (24): 383pa, 92wrc+, 2.2war
Osuna (21): 103.0ip, 59era-, 1.7war --- Rodriguez (23): 27gs, 111era-, 1.7war
Hutch (25): 72gs, 121era-, 1.3war ------ Vazquez (25): 363pa, 59wrc+, 1.3war

In a month, the pen might be Osuna-Sanchez-Cecil-Grilli-Morales-Biagini-Chavez. Wouldn't shock me if Cecil coming back and Sanchez moving to the pen (as great as he's been as a SP) is what triggers a run. Maybe wishful thinking.

The pro-rated data aren't helpful.  The key Red Sox core players (Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley) have shown durability.  Of the key Blue Jay players (Travis, Pillar, Sanchez and Osuna), only Pillar has shown durability.  I love Devon Travis- if he can get 600 PAs per season most years, he's going to be a great player.  That remains to be seen. 

Mookie Betts had 650 PAs in both 2014 and 2015 and leads the league in PAs now. Betts' BBRef ten age comparables at the beginning of the year included 3 Hall of Famers and Carlos Beltran (who might make it).  The funny thing is that he has been better than all of his age comparables. 

Bogaerts hasn't been quite as durable, but has been right around 600 PAs each of the last 4 years.  His age comparables (before his jump forward in 2016) included 4 Hall of Famers- plus Jim Fregosi and Jose Reyes.  At this point, Bogaerts is in a sweet spot between Rod Carew, Jose Reyes, Joe Tinker and Lou Boudreau. 

true, durability is a thing. until its not, at least.

but that certainly doesn't render the pro-rated numbers useless.

John. I checked FG again on Revere. -0.8 WAR.

His baserunning is -0.1, which is really bad, since it's supposed to be his (only?) strength.

Good point about the playing time.

Brett Cecil makes a big difference and his return is imminent.

I surely hope so but he has not had a good year so far and may be coming back a bit rusty. Then again, perhaps the layoff will help with his injury recovery, if that was what was bothering him.

The Jays sure are the definition of a streaky team. Add another good, long streak to my list of "hopes".

Wouldn't shock me if Cecil coming back and Sanchez moving to the pen (as great as he's been as a SP) is what triggers a run.

Stroman's woes may make them more hesitant. If Hutch fails to perform and Stroman doesn't turn it around quickly, they'd be down to three reliable starters.

putting Sanchez in pen now would be foolish. Fortunately, this admin has a longer term view than many of the fans or the media.

The three most reliable performers in the Jays bullpen to date consist of a 21 year old closer in his second season above A+, a 26 year old Rule-5 draft pick, and a 39 year old salary dump that has been with the team for a month. With such plentiful riches to work with no wonder Gibbons is the viewed as the main culprit behind the bullpen's performance.

" Stroman's woes may make them more hesitant. If Hutch fails to perform and Stroman doesn't turn it around quickly, they'd be down to three reliable starters."

In my mind they're down to three reliable starters now, given Stroman's struggles and Dickey, well, I'm never confident what you're going to get.

"21 year old closer in his second season above A+, a 26 year old Rule-5 draft pick, and a 39 year old salary dump"

I think there's a bullpen building lesson in there somewhere.

"putting Sanchez in pen now would be foolish. Fortunately, this admin has a longer term view than many of the fans or the media."


Sanchez is at nearly 100 IP in 15 starts. That's 23rd in baseball right now, and 9th in all of baseball for starters with 15 starts. I don't know what their IP limit is for him this season, but he's not going to throw 200 IP in all likelyhood, so moving him to the pen some time in August seems inevitable, unless they change course and start having him skip starts, get extended rest, etc, so he can last through September at a manageable total.

I love it. There is actually somebody in here blaming John Gibbons for using Drew Storen over RYAN TEPERA in a one run game. Because he threw THIRTY THREE PITCHES in 3 days prior to yesterday's game.

People weren't complaining about Gibbons' bullpen management in August/September of 2015, because he had the pieces to get through the end of the game with confidence.

As bad as Drew Storen has been, if the Jays don't trade for him they aren't finding out what they have in Aaron Sanchez the SP right now.

In hindsight, the interesting question is whether it was worth it to pinch-hit for Estrada.  He had given up the home run to Gonzalez in the sixth, but he was only at 91 pitches.  It's funny how Pillar's double forced a tough decision. 

That was probably the right decision. Estrada hurt his shoulder swinging the  bat the other day.  It would hurt to lose him.

Storen has not been effective against lefties and Colorado isn't the best place for breaking balls.

One of the worse thing about losing streaks is Osuna not playing for extended stretches.

Carrera is in the leadoff spot again tonight

floyd out for a while. this might be the end.

I would be surprised.

As he been worth his contract to the Jays?

@BlueJayHunter
Ross Atkins on moving Aaron Sanchez out of the rotation - "As long as things are trending upwards, there will be no reason to move him out".

:)

Floyd had a 0.3 WAR and a $/WAR of 2.1 in 31 innings. His guaranteed salary was $1M + additional bonuses for days spent on the 25-man roster. He would get $500k for 90 days on the 25-man roster, and an additional $250k for 120 days on the roster, so looks like his final total will be $1.5M assuming he's done for the season and DL time does not count. He was ultimately worth his contract. His arm was always a ticking time bomb so the Jays probably got the most that they could.

hard to go wrong with that contract, really. no downside.

Hutchison was pulled after 75 pitches, throwing a 1 hitter through 6 innings with 2 walks and 5 Ks.  Franklin Morales is on to pitch the 7th for the Herd.  Can Brett Cecil be far behind?

What things are trending upwards?

I assume he's talking about sanchez, not the team.

ah yes here's the full quote:

"What we’ll do is continue to focus on how effective he is as a starter. And so long as things are trending upwards and in the right direction, there will be no reason to move him out."

Which is pretty big - he's saying flat out there's no innings limit, and his performance will dictate what happens.

That's a fascinating way of putting it. Performance as health indicator. I wonder what they're looking for specifically.

So, he goes to the bullpen if he starts pitching poorly? That would really help.

I guess we're looking for him to hit the DL in mid August then.

I assume they're looking for indications of fatigue, instead of just looking at a number like innings.

smart way to do it, imo.

... but does that mean velocity, movement, strikeouts, walks, their own internal stats on how often he's hitting his spots, ERA, RA9, whether the team wins? What do you do if some of those are in tension with each other, like if in early September he's sitting 92 with the fastball, but riding a BABIP hot streak and consistently giving you 7 innings?

My gut is to use stuff like pitch FX and the like to measure consistency and arm motion. As long as those stay stable and the results are there keep him going. If he starts to droop or make adjustments then regardless of results look at moving him to the pen as those are signs of fatigue and he could hurt himself at that point.

I hope they utilize hightech biometric stuff to measure it but from the outside I'll be looking at velo, break, control, and stamina at least.

any of those start to fade and I'd be concerned.

yeah good point John - consistency of release point is definitely a way to measure fatigue, and pitch fx is perfect for that.

and i don't have the eye to see much variation in delivery unless it's way off like Norris last year, but the coaches sure do.

This supports what Shapiro and Atkins said in April and why I have questioned (without response I might add) the assumption that Sanchez was on an innings limit and that Gibbons was burning through his innings at an alarming rate. At the time they did indicate they use a combination of subjective observation, objective stats, and hinted at what I believe to be bio-mechanical analysis as more complicated performance information to quantify fatigue.

If they don't go with a strict innings limit, then it will come down to how they measure fatigue (velocity, mechanics, etc) more than anything else. Equating poor performance with fatigue may not necessarily be an accurate way of doing it, but I trust the FO with all their organizational structures in place to make the right call with that.

The Rockies should have signed Estrada and Happ.

I love Devon Travis.

now please don't squander another bases loaded opp.

lol what a bounce.

So... what are the odds Happ gets to bunt for a 4th time?

I want to sleep but i'll have nightmares about our bullpen.

You Be The Manager: bring Happ out for the 6th at 100 pitches?

(I am also trying to keep awake. Shouldn't 8-5 games be somewhat more exciting? I blame Coors)

I'd hate to bring Happ back out.

but I'd hate to bring the pen in in the 6th.

so i'll probably just blame gibby either way.

dammit if that tulo shot had dropped i'd have gone to bed.

....martin drives one in now.

4 run lead with 4ip left. safe enough yet? (no)

nice pillar.

6 run lead. that's bed time.

you're on your own, eephus!

It's really not a Coors-friendly bullpen beyond Osuna. I'd probably just bring in Biagini or Schultz, doesn't matter which, and see if he can get me all the way to the 9th. In particular, I think Grilli at altitude is a time bomb.

6 run lead. that's bed time.

you're on your own, eephus!

All right all right, welcome to Batter's Box After Dark. Let's kick things off with the latest single from hot artist Junior Lake -- "I Wanna Be Your Fourth Man".


Yeah maybe it is bedtime...

Well perhaps I'm farthest east this morning. I like waking up to Blue Jays baseball in France, when they are leading 11-5. Sometimes a coast game is still on, but rarely one from CT.

2:37pm here in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. No time issues here.

Is there a way to sync MLBTV to the radio feed? I noticed awhile ago there was an option "Audio Overlay" but it no longer is accessible.

Grilli punches out Arenado and Gonzalez back to back. Nailed it.

Road team wins!

The live streaming MLB tv lets me choose the radio feed if I want and when I do so it tends to be in sync.

An exciting game with a good result. Coors seems like such an adventure, I'm glad that's not our home park.

Funny looking at the box score today (made it to the 5th inning before crashing). Didn't notice it was a battle of 3rd place teams, Rockies are also 3rd but now 11 games out of 1st and 5 out of 2nd, Jays are 5 1/2 out of first and 1 back of 2nd.

In the AL East only Tampa and NY lost although with Tampa playing the Red Sox an AL East team had to win and another had to lose no matter what and for once I'd have liked the Rays to win.

As the season progresses we get deeper into the 'no hope' point for teams - Minnesota & Cincinnati are both 20+ out of first so beyond hope, Atlanta, Milwaukee, San Diego, Angels, A's are all 15+ out so pretty much out of it but a BIG winning streak could give them hope, Tampa, Houston, Seattle, Philly, St Louis, Pittsburgh, and Colorado are all 10+ out so Wild Card is the best they can realistically dream of.

Boy, the Wild Card is saving the season for a lot of NL teams. In that league only Cincinnati and Atlanta are more than 10 out of the Wild Card. Miami has the 2nd wild card there.

In the AL only Minnesota is 10+ out of the Wild Card. The Jays hold the final wild card slot with KC & Houston only 1/2 a game back right now.

For all the craziness last night, the most interesting tidbit for me was the Cubs current roster construction. 13 pitchers and 3 catchers, for a NL team. Baseball has a curious way of providing perspective.

Grilli has been exactly what this team has needed so far. Tons of K's and some stability late in games behind Osuna. Nice buy low pick up, especially with the Braves picking up the tab. I've essentially given up hope on Storen bouncing back (unless his FB suddenly gains 2 MPH again) but Cecil coming back combined with Grilli might give the Jays some semblance of what they were expecting from Osuna/Cecil/Storen in the off-season.

found this article that spells out the July 2nd signing rules:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2-international-signing-period-primer/

As far as I understand it, the Jays are in the 'penalty box' and while we still have slot money, we can't sign anyone for over 300K.  the trade of dejong and locastro was put in place so we were in the penalty box for one year, not two, although the more I learn about this, the steeper that price seems. 

We have just over 2 million in international bonus pool money given our record, and I believe we can actually trade some of the slots that we can't use. 

Now I see why the Jays never won in Coors before.
There weren't scoring enough runs.

Here's hoping Sanchez gets 10 runs of support tonight.

Travis

First 59pa: .145/.186/.236/.422, 5wrc+
Last 59pa: .429/.458/.750/1.208, 224wrc+


Looks like spring training is over for him.

Grilli has been exactly what this team has needed so far. Tons of K's and some stability late in games behind Osuna. Nice buy low pick up, especially with the Braves picking up the tab.

I've thought so too. He's the Storen we thought we were getting. It's too bad the actual Storen hasn't worked out as hoped, but as many have noted, the guy they sent away for him isn't exactly tearing up the NL East, and his replacement has produced one of the top batting lines of any outfielder this season. Seems like the personnel in the new front office might actually know what they're doing.

Gibbons managed one hell of a game last night, pulling all the right moves with the bullpen. Kudos to John.

I don't really see Saunders as Revere's replacement, so let's not give them too much credit. Storen has been a horrendous acquisition, and Revere would serve this team's needs a lot better as the 4th OF. Smoak has been terrible for 6 weeks now but he could've been nailed to the bench if Revere was around, giving Saunders the chance to rest his knees often at DH. Saunders has gone cold over the last 10 games.

Donaldson is now up to .290/.398/.562. Yep, you read that right, he's been BETTER than last year with the stick. EE is at .259/.355/.536 and regressing nicely to his average production over the last 4 seasons. Add in Martin hitting .265/.371/.453 since May 14th and Tulowitzki at .279/.330/.605 since May 10th and you have the makings of a dangerous offense even with a slumping Saunders and injured Bautista. Devon Travis being in beast mode for 2 weeks really completes the lineup, so let's hope he's the unexpected guy we saw glimpses of in 2015.

A couple of good news items from Buffalo - last night Hutchison, Morales and Cecil are pitched well. 6IP/1H/0R/2BB/5K for Hutch. Scoreless relief innings for both of the lefties.

especially given Atkins' statements on Sanchez, I really don't get why we wouldn't give Hutch a chance to help our bullpen.


Not a fan of today's lineup - resting both Saunders and Martin, when we're already short a DH, is asking for trouble.

I am pretty sure that Martin is only being rested because of the late hour that the game finished yesterday and today's afternoon game.  It's unfortunate when Martin misses a game like this one against a lefty, in addition to a Dickey start, but it is just one of those things that really can't be avoided.

Not sure if it's been mentioned here, but apparently former all-star Steve Delabar is headed to Japan. His last few years have been pretty terrible, so hopefully he has better luck there.

I see the reasoning behind wanting to move Sanchez out of the rotation to preserve his innings count, but I'm not sure I'd do it if the Jays have a legitimate shot at winning the Series.

The reason to preserve Sanchez, in point form:

1. To keep his inning count down, so that
2. He will be available to the team in future years, so that
3. The Jays might win a pennant sometime in the future

If you keep him in the rotation, you might be able to skip steps 1 and 2 and go straight to step 3.

A vitally important question: will Josh Thole ever drive in another run?

Thole hit a home run in his first at-bat of the season on April 4th, and has not driven in a run since. He had a golden opportunity in today's game: he came up with runners on second and third and one out, but lined out to the shortstop.

Aaron Sanchez, following him, has just singled to score Pillar and Lake. Which will eventually lead to the best trivia question ever: name the American League battery in which the pitcher has driven in twice as many runs as the catcher.

Rats - Sanchez's single was overturned. So he grounded out.

If there's no credit to be granted for Saunder's as the replacement for Revere, then how about Bruce?

Either way to give no credit to management that they saw better options that Revere seems a touch unfair.

Bruce has been pretty great with the bat for the Reds this year - almost as good as Saunders - but his glove has him at an fWAR of 0.2, compared to Saunders (also not good with the glove) at 1.7. 

I was glad at the time that the deal fell through, and remain pretty glad.  Bruce has been terrible defensively for several years and while we'd all rather have Saunders right now, I think I'd also rather have the comp pick for the QO than Bruce in the final year of his contract next year - he should be a DH only at this point. 

Well, there's a nice example.  Sanchez was throwing very well prior to the 7th.  After a bloop single to Reynolds, he walks Descalso on four pitches (not close) and then Wolters on four pitches (not close).  Gibbons leaves Sanchez in and is rewarded with an inning-ending DP.  It's Sanchez' control that often leaves him when he is tired. 

...and then he comes back out for another inning. interesting.

"Either way to give no credit to management that they saw better options that Revere seems a touch unfair."

I will definitely give them credit for identifying revere as a priority to move, for whatever they could get. Storen I thought was a good target but it did annoy me when bbox posters informed me just after the trade about his serious drop in velo and performance in recent months.

still though - trading revere to fill a hole was always the right idea. whether the storen failure is bad luck or bad analysis i'm not sure.

The Rays beat Price and the Red Sox 4-0 today. Price had a somewhat better start (the 10:1 K:BB stands out) than his last outing but he still gave up 4 ER and a bunch of extra base hits in his 6.1 innings. His ERA is now 4.74. He may yet find his groove, but if you're Dombrowski, this is not what you want to see in year 1 of his mega-contract.

Osuna with a 4 run lead?  I know he was warming, but I'm not a fan.  He threw earlier this morning in Colorado.

Just to correct something - Storen's velocity didn't drop until this year. In fact, it started going up at the end of last season. The complaints would have been about his performance after winning and owning the closing job but having it handed to Papelbon at the deadline anyway.

But yeah, in this case the analysis all looked good, but they just didn't end up getting the same guy. This is one I put into the "right process, wrong result" bucket. Those happen to everyone.

Price had a rough start this year, at least ERA wise, but over his last 10 starts (including today) he's had a 3.49era with elite periphals. I'm sure he's fine.

A 4 run lead in Colorado is a high leverage situation in my books.

phew.

finally caught boston.

I feel like I lost a year off my life in that one inning. Go Jays, though. If there's one thing this organization can pull off, it's continuing to make history.

I wouldn't expect hard innings limits on anyone. I expect this front office to run em hard. Get what you can from them while they're cheap; let them be someone else's problem after that - for better or for worse. With all the talent remaining in the organization, is there a better strategy?

In Storen's final 13 innings in 2015 (9.22 ERA), his FBv was 94.4. That's just over those 13 bad innings.

This season, he has at 92.

There was no sign of a velocity drop in 2015 with him, even when he was struggling towards the end of the season. That started in 2016, for whatever reason.

It was a good trade that had a bad ending. It happens, especially with relievers.

Nobody could have reasonably expected Revere to be this bad either, though.

Revere is what he is, though. I didn't think he was as expendable as people thought, as Saunders was a question mark heading into the season and there was no reliable 4th OF on paper, but obviously Saunders has turned into a beast offensively and Carrera has done a better than expected job off the bench. Regardless, even if Revere bounces back to his career norms, the trade was fair. Storen was expected to be a ~1 win reliever, and Revere's main tool for value (speed) was going to be negated in Toronto since he was never going to steal bases batting 1st, so ultimately it was probably equal value going both ways from the Jays standpoint (projections had them around the same WAR, IIRC).

In hindsight, if the Jays had traded for Bruce while keeping Saunders (putting Bruce at 1B/DH), they'd be a lot better off right now. The FO guessed right on Bruce's offensive bounce back (128 wRC+ so far) but he's so terrible defensively that it kills a lot of his value. Glad the deal didn't go through, obviously, but they may have targeted the right guy. He just should have been replacing Smoak, not Saunders.

paying a guy $8m when he was the 5th or 6th best OF option wqs always ludicrous. good on the FO for seeing it.

In hindsight, if the Jays had traded for Bruce while keeping Saunders (putting Bruce at 1B/DH), they'd be a lot better off right now.

Oh, no question. Gibbons won't give Smoak a chance, and Bruce has been a monster offensively. I don't know for sure about Revere though; yes he was expensive for a fourth outfielder, but if the team could convince Bautista that he has no business playing the outfield, the Jays would look like Revere/Pillar/Saunders, with some other random RP failing as badly as Storen has. Lake might turn out to be an adequate and cheaper replacement. He may not. What is sure though is that Bautista isn't an upgrade over Bruce in the outfield. For whatever that's worth.

I don't know if it's Gibbons not giving Smoak a chance but instead the team dealing with consistent minor injuries. Smoak is only useful at 1B or DH, and when injuries force a guy like Donaldson into the DH spot Encarnacion obviously takes priority at 1B. Saunders is another guy who's often put in the DH spot, if largely to rest him. To me I don't really see him having a big role on this team, especially since he hasn't exactly hit himself into the lineup. I wonder if he has any trade value... The Jays are not short of potential 1B options.

The collision with Sanchez at first and the Jays hitters fouling balls on their legs is what made me nervous.

I was confident Osuna was going to get it done, but it didn't take long to bring the tying run to the plate.
A walk and some straight fastballs down the middle is a curious way to start an inning.

Winning 2 out of 3 is a nice rocky mountain high. Getting out of the NL parks is a good thing too IMO

Encarnation plays 1B in NL parks and Smoak becomes a pinch hitter/defensive replacement.
That's just the way it is.
Everybody taking turns at DH is Gibbons'way of addressing the 17 games streaks without a break.

Sanchez's stuff played exactly as I imagined it would and I had a blast watching the whole thing.

It's good to win a series on the road, but it's not so good when you start the next series with Dickey and Stroman. Let's hope Thole get wound up by playing 2 games in a row and has good atbats tomorrow.

I have as much faith long-term in Osuna as I do in Stroman. Six months ago Stroman was the ace. Now he's the worst pitcher in the rotation. 18 months ago Hutchison was the ace. Now he's pitching in Buffalo. At the risk of channeling Richard S.S., "ANYONE" can back up their claims with "STATISTICS".

I do heartily agree with CeeBee though. Taking two of three in a park the team has never won a SINGLE game in the past?

Can't complain.

18 months ago Hutchison was the ace.

Eighteen months ago Hutchison (coming off his 11-13, 4.48 mark in 2014) was certainly no higher than fourth in the rotation depth chart, behind Buehrle, Stroman, and Dickey.

why would we ever start smoak instead of EE?

EE plays everyday and does get hurt like everybody else.
I still don't understand what Goins is doing on the team.
A third catcher would be more useful right now.

Morales is on the 60 DL. Will they move Floyd there? I think he'd be lucky to be back in September.

What about McFarland? I haven't heard a bleep from him this year. Where is he?

2 out of 3 in Coors is good, but 2 out of 3 with our 3 best starters is just plain average.
Let's win all the coming home series and I'll be impressed.

Baltimore- who have a sub 500 road record - have now played 11 more games at home than away. They must have a heck of a road trip coming, hopefully one that will crush them. Afterall, only 5 teams have a +500 road record in the AL.

The Jays meanwhile have played 8 less home games. Now if they can only improve their home record, may be we can make up some ground.

Eighteen months ago Hutchison (coming off his 11-13, 4.48 mark in 2014) was certainly no higher than fourth in the rotation depth chart, behind Buehrle, Stroman, and Dickey.

Fine. I should've said "Opening Day starter" rather than "ace", since the Jays haven't actually had an ace since the Halladay years.

Just out of curiosity, exactly where would you put Stroman on the depth chart now?

based on this year?

#3

exactly where would you put Stroman on the depth chart now?

Right now? I would think he's struggling to hold off Hutchison, who's pitching very well indeed in AAA.

Stroman's first 8 starts: 4-0, 3.54, 56 IP, 46 H, 41 K, 15 BB

Stroman's last 8 starts: 2-4, 7.54, 45.1 IP, 67 H, 30 K, 16 BB

Hutchison was pitching better than that last year when he was pulled out of the rotation. Just what have you done for me lately, anyway?

Cecil is in his way up. When do Bauxites figure we'll see Franklin Morales?

Based on this year, I rank him #6.

Incidentally, the Rockies' TV team doesn't add much to the broadcast.  Example: in the ninth inning yesterday, Carlos Gonzalez scored from first base on Reynolds' double to make the score 5-2.  It was a close play at the plate- Gonzalez' slide just beat Thole's tag.  Huson and Spilbroughs were carrying on about how they might have got Gonzalez if Pillar had hit the first cutoff man rather than throwing directly to Tulowitzki on a bounce.  That might (or might not) be true, but it amazed me that they didn't say anything about the decision to send Gonzalez.  In that situation, Gonzalez' run means nothing.  If there's a 5% chance of him being out at the plate, you don't send him.  Later, Huson and Spilbroughs criticized Descalso for tagging up on Wolters line drive just past Carrera (which led to Descalso not scoring).  The score was 5-3 at that point, and whether Descalso scored or just moved up to third was irrelevant.

Osuna really knows the game.  You could tell that he was not giving Blackmon anything to hit at all because he was quite sure that he could strike out Adames.  He is almost always right about these things.

Osuna faced 8 hitters.  He started getting swinging strikes when he layed off the fastball.
Might have been better to save him for tonight, but  Osuna was the surest thing.

Josh Thole has posted an execrable slash line so far this year, but it seems to me be mostly BABIP-luck driven.  He is hitting more balls hard and fewer balls soft than ever, and yet has posted a .163 BABIP (120 points below his career average).  And it doesn't matter how he hits the ball- his BABIP on line drives is .538 (career .620), in the air it is .000 (career .142) and on the ground it is .050 (career .221).  With reasonable BABIP luck, he'd have a line about his career .243/.315/.307- which isn't great but in line for a backup catcher. 

yeah Osuna's poor stats when the game isn't on tbe line are clearly the result of him just pounding fastballs in there. It's a bit cocky but it's also kinda the right thing to do.

and yeah I was very happy to see him pitch around Blackmon - and thankful that the rockies don't do crazy things like hit Arenado 2nd in the order. That was nasty stuff he threw to Adames.

The American League leads the NL 91-72 with a 832-764 run scored advantage. 

You'd think looking at the standings that the Orioles, Indians and Rangers have been the best teams in MLB, but if you look closer at the divisions and the run and win efficiency of the clubs, it doesn't seem to be so.  It is likely that the Cubs are the best team in MLB with a bunch of teams in the AL in a knot behind them (including the Blue Jays).  The Cardinals and Nationals are probably in the same knot. 

The Blue Jays reach the halfway mark of the season today.  They have performed a little worse than I expected in all departments (about 1/4 run scored per game less than expected and about 1/4 run allowed per game more than expected, and 1 game less efficient than expected).  With Pompey's concussion, Bautista's turf toe and Saunders' knee condition, it seems pretty clear that they need a corner outfielder.  That is something that can often be obtained at not too high a cost at the deadline.  It's a lot better than looking for a starting pitcher...

I can't say I expected better from our pitching.

But I did and do expect more from the offense...but really the offense has already bounced back to normal, scoring over 6 runs per game in june, with sustainable supporting numbers.

"Runs allowed" is more than just pitching, but in this case, it is mostly the bullpen that has been less effective so far than I anticipated it would be.  On the other hand, Brett Cecil has been much stronger in the second half of 2014 and 2015 than he was in the first, and I am hopeful that this trend will continue in 2016.  

A good offense will produce mostly in low leverage situation, so over  6 runs per game might look like 10 runs one day and 3 the next. The Jays had a good offensive run, but they only went 10 and 7 because pitching has been all over the place.

Anybody think the Jays will go after a SP this year? Not ala D. Price. Something for a controllable starter. There were rumours before of a Bauer for Pompey + or Pillar, if I remember correctly.

What would it take to get a pitcher like Matt Moore (intriguing because of his upside) who has years left of affordable control? Pompey or Alford + a lower prospect might do it. Or Tellez straight up. TB goes after the best prospects they can get and will take a surplus (OF's in their case) and use as trade chips.

10-7 is a 95 win pace.

more depth SP, dalimon? whyyyyy?

Exactly, and an 11 game winning streak is a 162 win pace.

If Moore came over and pitched poorly it would be a depth SP move, but like Bauer this year, you'd have to bank that his numbers would improve this year. In Moore's case it would be increased velocity as he continues coming back from tommy John. Pitching in the AL East is never good for a pitcher, but I don't think the Jays can get a legit starter with a track record (too many teams needing SP and offering better prospects). That's why I think they need to target upside pitchers that they hope will trend upwards after trading for them ala Grilli.

This Cleveland team can really pitch.

Maybe poach their front office?

Hahaha, nice.

The Indians were my darkhorse team the past two seasons and it lead no where so I kind of overlooked them this season. Figures this would be the year they play to their potential. They are basically the Mets of the AL with their pitching staff. If they happen to make the playoffs, they are the team that no one will want to face with Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Bauer, and Tomlin in the rotation.

Maybe LeBron lifted the Cleveland curse.

Cleveland is a weird team - they essentially have an elite keystone combo in Kipnis and potential MVP Lindor, a great starting rotation, a good closer and young IF in Ramirez, and that's about it ... Rajai Davis has the third highest fWar on the team.  Rajai Davis.

Yan Gomes and Juan Uribe are still plus defenders but are clear negatives offennsively.  Marlon Byrd is suspended for the year, Michael Brantley is injured - and yet Fangraphs still has their offense ranked 4th, and they are 2nd is baserunning runs. 

Elite starting pitching and talent up the middle can take you a long way. 

If they add a big bat for the heart of their order they could be scary. 

SP ERA-

4.CLE 84 (6.27ip/gs)
4.NYM 84 (5.84ip/gs)
6.TOR 88 (6.34ip/gs)

The Blue Jays now play 11 straight games before the break against AL Central teams. So far, they are 3-1 vs the Twins and 2-7 against the White Sox and Tigers. I think it will be interesting to see how they do against the Indians, Royals and Tigers.

Chris Gimenez starts behind the plate for the Indians.  Opponents are 47-8 attempting to steal in the last 4 years (900 innings). Carrera, Travis, Donaldson and Pillar can run if the time is right.

Darwin Barney gets the start for Tulo tonight.  That's a good decision by Gibbons.

Opponents are 47-8 attempting to steal in the last 4 years (900 innings). Carrera, Travis, Donaldson and Pillar can run if the time is right.

Unfortunately, you have to get on base to run.