Well I'm happy to see that Gibby read my response on Batters Box and reflected carefully about what I said about dropping Bautista down the lineup and Pillar out of the #5 spot. Working so far.

That was a great play by Donaldson. Is it just me, or is he moving much better toward the line than toward the hole?

Marco Estrada lines out.  Live by the BABIP control...

Ryan Howard is 15-116 (.129) against LHP since the beginning of 2015. Not sure why Girodo's even on the team if not for something like this.

Concur, Magpie.

Evidently Howard also has trouble hitting 94 mph fastballs down the middle from a right-handed pitcher too.  Aging is a cruel beast.

Funny how the only thing that makes me happy right now, instead of just relieved, is Travis getting hits. Nice to see him slowly but surely rounding into regular season form.

and whoever commented that this year June is EE's May deserves a gold star.

apparently Estrada tied some sort of mlb record for consecutive starts of 6+ip with

It was only in 2014 that Edwin's JesusMonth came in May. Last year it was August.

fair enough - gold star revoked!

So Josh Thole's OPS+ thus far is a mighty negative-2 in 64 plate appearances. I wondered if that was the worst OPS+ in franchise history for any hitter with at least 64 PA. The answer: It's a tie, but yes!

Worst 5 of all time:

1994 Rob Butler -- 19 OPS+ over 88 PA (.176/.250/.203)
1983 Hosken Powell -- 14 OPS+ over 89 PA (.169/.213/.205)
1979 Bob Davis -- 0 OPS+ over 101 PA (.124/.188/.180)
2016 Josh Thole -- negative-2 OPS+ over 64 PA (.107/.194/.161)
2003 Kevin Cash -- negative-2 OPS+ over 117 PA (.142/.179/.198)

Cash obviously played in a much more favourable hitting era. In '03, Shannon Stewart's .294/.347/.449 was only good for an OPS+ of 105.

The hockey fans here will remember the goalie fight depicted above in pictures where Felix (the cat)Potvin cleaned Ron Hextall's clock. Good times!

Hextall was an equal opportunity offender, continuing a time honoured tradition of boorish Flyer behaviour that started in the 70s. He notoriously had a difficult time keeping his emotions in check against the Canadiens. Fitting that he would eventually become an executive for that very organization. A new generation of kids won't simply be born boors, they need to be taught.

Estrada certainly is proving you can't evaluate all players by their peripherals.

Bautista, EE, Estrada... Come to TO to transform your career.

Bautista, EE, Estrada... Come to TO to transform your career.

Always worth remembering that the Jays unloaded EE in the middle of his Blue Jay career, before re-signing him.

Now that the dark cloud has lifted from the 2016 Blue Jays, can we step back and look at the club's medium term position?  Some people look at the impending free agencies of Bautista, Encarnacion, Saunders et. al. as devastating to the club's medium term potential.  I don't see it that way.  As of right now, I see the club as having the following players on their 2017 major league roster: Pompey, Pillar, Carrera, Donaldson, Tulo, Travis, Goins, Martin, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Sanchez, Hutchison, Osuna and Biagini.  The cost should be about $90 million for those players.  The club has a payroll of $145 million for 2016 and It should be a little higher (at least) in 2017.  The club has had excellent attendance; the TV numbers have been good and will likely get better as the season goes along.  So, let's say they have $60 million to get a right-fielder, a first baseman, a DH, a back-up catcher and the back end of a bullpen.  This seems doable to me.  The club would be counting on Pompey and Travis to deliver more to the club in 2017 than they have in 2016 so far, but that seems to me to be a pretty good bet.

Back to pursuing those flags...

Now that the dark cloud has lifted from the 2016 Blue Jays

I totally agree Mike and would take it one step further.  In a way at the moment we are carrying what amounts to 3 players who at this point in their careers should be at least part-time DHs (Encarnacion, Bautista & Saunders.)  I don't like being mercenary about this because especially E & B are among my favorite Jays.  But on the other hand -- we need to be realistic about how many DH's we should carry.  Those guys leaving in a way help solve what is currently a roster crunch at DH and while the offense would suffer -- the D would get better and it may not be as big a price to pay as one might imagine it would be.

On the longstanding question of why Dalton Pompey has never been given a full-time Jays job, there's an excellent piece by John Lott, written very sensitively and thoughtfully, which identifies the key issue that's been plaguing Pompey for two years:  his "erratic focus," as Lott calls it.  Lots of examples and quotes to support this theory in the story, including quotes from Pompey himself.  Pompey is now acknowledging the problem and addressing it directly.  Very interesting examples and comments in the story.   If he can solve the problem, there's a good chance that he'll be a starting outfielder for the Jays in 2017.  Here's the link to the story, which I highly recommend:

http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/16/lott-dalton-pompey-is-learning-to-focus-on-focus

The Jays will have holes in RF, LF, 1B, and DH, in addition to needing to fill the usual spots (bullpen, SP depth, overall depth, etc). They are losing a ton of power and walks with Bautista, Edwin, Saunders, and Smoak. How they look in 2017 depends entirely on how they fill those holes. Maybe they find suitable replacements. Maybe they compensate for the drop in offense with added defense/base running value (i.e. Pompey in LF). Too early to tell.

My guess is they'll sign stop-gaps in order to fill those spots without blocking anyone or being tied down heavily to contracts. Maybe they revisit Jay Bruce but put him at DH/1B instead of the outfield where he's a butcher (135 wRC+ this season so the Jays guessed right with him offensively....he shouldn't touch the field defensively, though). Maybe they look at someone like Carlos Santana who could replace a bit of that power/walk combo they will lose (he has a team option with the Indians).

Hope for 2017, depending on how 2016 finishes and which direction they choose to go in, is not lost. It's just going to take some creativity to get it done if they want to sustain a playoff caliber roster. Having young talent (Pompey, Travis) take steps forward would certainly help.

Here's another debating point:  should Marco Estrada now be acknowledged as the "Ace" of the Jays pitching staff?  And can he be considered an "Ace" by league-wide assessment?  Can we legitimately call him an "Ace"?   I'm aware of the FIP arguments against him, but personally I think he definitely qualifies as an "Ace" (which is a somewhat undefined term anyway). He has the fourth-best ERA and second-best WHIP in the entire league.  He might not be doing it in an impressive K-heavy manner, but he gets the results.  Surely it's the results that matter in the end, regardless of peripherals?  Here is a lengthier argument for "Ace" status for Estrada:

http://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/canadian-baseball-network-articles/2016/6/9/108-why-the-reluctance-to-call-estrada-ace

"....They are losing a ton of power and walks with Bautista, Edwin, Saunders, and Smoak...."

I'm not yet convinced that they are losing all of those guys.   They used the QO-strategy as a way to keep Estrada this year.  As Mike pointed out above, they'll have the payroll to sign some good players.  Why not a couple of their existing players?  It could happen.

That is a good article, CF.  I don't quite see it the same way as John does, though.  There were literally no comments about Pompey's focus (and no evidence of any issue) prior to his arrival in Toronto in 2015). My take on it is that the club also has something to learn from this.  Pompey's confidence, in my view, took a hit at the beginning of 2015 and the club's handling of him was far from exemplary and contributed to his issue.  If you are going to call a young prospect up and give him an everyday job, don't ship him out a month later at the first sign of trouble.  Second, don't blame him for problems which are only partially his fault.  When Gibbons put him in center with players like Valencia in leftfield and communications problems ensued, don't put it all on the rook.

electric carrot, I don't know that Saunders and Bautista need to be part-time DHs but I agree that neither is suited to being a full-time outfielder.  Both would benefit from a move to first base at some point (and in Bautista's case, the sooner the better).  Bautista in particular looks to be a pretty good defensive first baseman (amazingly enough), and I think that the reduced defensive wear would help his offensive production. 

Not sure why it would be amazing that Bautista would be good defensively at 1B.  He's extremely athletic, with quick reflexes (the issue in RF appears to me to be routes and speed, both of which are non-factors at 1B). 

It seems clear to me that at least 2 of Bautista, EE, Smoak and Saunders won't be with the Jays next year (to say nothing of Colabello, who if you add to that list means 3 of them won't be back).  The Jays should  (assuming Pompey plays every day next year as I expect) have a much improved defensive OF next year which should help the pitching staff and offset some of the loss of offence. 

If the Jays can talk Bautista into playing 1B (which should be easier on his body, in addition to being better defensively), that should be priority 1, followed by EE, Saunders and Smoak (in that order).  We'll see.  Lots of time to sort it out.

I think any disagreement over the term Ace is akin to the debate between a large/small hall of fame. Personally, I think the term should be used relatively conservatively, for example, I am comfortable with the Jays only having two or three Aces in team history (Steib, Clemens, Halladay).

That said if people want to call Estrada an ace in that he's had a couple of seasons of good pitching, I don't see the point of quibbling. He is good. Not great, but good.

How about "excellent pitcher" for Estrada, as in "Jose Quintana sure is an excellent pitcher"? Ace is just loaded with mythology (I imagine the Stones' Emotional Rescue as their walking-to-the-mound music and cringe at the thought).  Speaking of mythology, can we recall how great he was in the playoffs last year?  He made 3 starts, threw 19.1 innings with an ERA of 2.33 and 1 walk and 15Ks.  He threw 200 excellent innings total last year, and he's on pace to do the same thing this year. 

Not sure why it would be amazing that Bautista would be good defensively at 1B.  He's extremely athletic, with quick reflexes (the issue in RF appears to me to be routes and speed, both of which are non-factors at 1B).

He's 35 and has never played a key defensive position for any prolonged period.  Almost all players with that profile and of that age are at best tolerable defensively anywhere on the diamond.  Bautista is unusual (for the reasons you describe).

I could see Smoak being brought back at an affordable extension. He'll be 30 next season so the "potential" tag should not really apply anymore, but the walks + power combo is still there, and as a short-term stopgap for Tellez (or whoever the future 1B is) he would be fine.

The other three are more difficult to see coming back. Bautista and Encarnacion due to age/salary, and Saunders due to injury history. Give the QO to all three and see what happens. All three are DH/1B types now, so that has to be factored into their value. Saunders no longer projects as a plus defender in LF anymore.

I could see Edwin testing free agency and then realizing the grass isn't greener on the other side (ala Alex Gordon), but will Shapiro/Atkins give him a fair enough (for him) offer to where taking less money and/or years would make sense for him? That's the key. Bautista looks like he's clearly going for the money (justifiably so).

I find it hard to see an intelligent route that has Bautista coming back. This is his chance for the brass ring. This is the team's chance to get a draft pick for an aging player in both offensive and defensive decline, if not trade him at the break, and to use the money elsewhere.

If the rumour that Edwin was offered a two-year deal with a vesting option is true, then that is a good sign. I'd say that is right where the club should be. I can see him returning on a deal of that sort at 17-19 per year. Someone else may choose to guarantee the third year, but in that case I hope the team takes the draft pick instead, and uses the money elsewhere.

Saunders is more difficult. I can see a 3 year 12-14 per year offer working there. He's definitely having a good platform year.

what are you guys wanting to spend all these savings on, exactly?

estrada stroman Sanchez osuna hutch

best way to save money would be to trade Happ.

Fill the Rogers coffers!

"should Marco Estrada now be acknowledged as the "Ace" of the Jays pitching staff? "

well, about as much as Dickey deserved the Ace label when we traded for him.

I wasn't intending to suggest any particular moves that need to be made for 2017.  Surely how things play out for the remainder of 2016 will affect those decisions. 

The Blue Jays have the eighth highest payroll in the American League in 2016, despite much better attendance and broadcast numbers.  I can't see any reason for this disparity to continue in 2017 and thereafter.

did a quick scan of B/R so this is just a quick look.....





2B Travis 0.5
3B Donaldson 17.0
DH Bautista
1B En'cion
LF Saunders
SS Tulowitzki 20.0
C Martin 20.0
RF Pompey 0.5
CF Pillar 0.5

UT Cola/Tellez 0.5
OF Carrera 1.0
IF Barney 1.5
C Jimenez 0.5

$62.0 + Bautista, En'cion, Saunders


Estrada 14.5
Hutch 2.5
Stroman 0.5
Sanchez 0.5
Osuna 0.5

$18.5 + Bullpen


So $80m payroll, plus at least $70m for signing Bautista, En'cion, Saunders, and a bullpen….though no reason it can’t be more than that.

"....Dickey deserved the Ace label when we traded for him...."

Certainly he was an Ace in the year when he won the Cy Young.  If you're comparing Estrada's current performance to a Cy Young winning season, that's quite a compliment. 

Alternatively it could be argued that nobody should be called an "Ace" unless they've been consistently one of the league's top pitchers for several consecutive seasons.  In that case, yes, we could argue that neither Dickey nor Estrada deserves the term, and that it should be reserved for Halladay, Stieb, Clemens, etc.

I'm still nervous about the club's ability to attract free agents to Canada. It's been 10 years since they've signed a good player who wasn't Canadian or hadn't played on the team previously. Some of this may be coincidence, some a reflection of their playoff drought, but there have been a number of players- particularly American - obtained in trades that implied they were hesitant to come up here. Impossible as a fan to know, but a worry.

Accordingly I hope they can sign some of their existing FA's to reduce the risk.

(Who knows, maybe having an American GM and president taling about the city might help, and there do some to be more Jays talking up how great it is to play on the club and in TO.)

Fair enough.  I do think Bautista will (justifiably) command more than most players in his age group because of his commitment to fitness.  Hopefully someone can convince him he could market himself better for the offseason if he showed he could play a good 1B (since that would open up the National League to him in a way he's going to have a little trickier time arguing right now).

"what are you guys wanting to spend all these savings on, exactly?"

Well, David Price is opting out in a couple of years...

"....There were literally no comments about Pompey's focus (and no evidence of any issue) prior to his arrival in Toronto in 2015)..."

That's purely because there is so little media coverage of prospects before they arrive in the majors.  Very few journalists are going to Buffalo's dressing room and probing the mental state of prospects before they reach the majors.  It becomes an issue when they reach the majors -- and especially when a high-profile young player is unexpectedly demoted after he has already won a starting job.  I find it implausible that Pompey suddenly developed his "erratic focus" issues only in 2015, at the age of 22, when he reached Toronto.  It's clearly an issue of his personality, which is not something that suddenly emerges from nowhere at the age of 22.  The most likely explanation is that he was so talented as a prospect that his focus issues were ignored, and it didn't become an issue until major-league coaches noticed that he was making mental errors and losing his concentration.

"....My take on it is that the club also has something to learn from this.  Pompey's confidence, in my view, took a hit at the beginning of 2015 and the club's handling of him was far from exemplary and contributed to his issue...."

But as John Lott points out, the biggest issue is not his lack of confidence but his erratic focus.  The coaches, rather than the fans, are aware when a player isn't concentrating or focusing for a full game, and that's dangerous to a team.  That's why he was shipped out.  Moreover, most players don't lose confidence if they are demoted -- many excellent players are demoted, traded or waived, and they bounce back quickly.  The fact that a player is demoted shouldn't be shattering to him.  If it is, it suggests a lack of mental toughness and lack of focus, which has to be addressed -- which is exactly what he is doing now.

"....If you are going to call a young prospect up and give him an everyday job, don't ship him out a month later at the first sign of trouble...."

Why not?  A smart team should be assessing its players every day.  You could perhaps criticize the Jays for giving him the full-time job in the first place, but those kinds of mistakes are quite common and understandable.  A player is highly talented and fast-improving, and the team gives him a starting job without being aware of what might happen in the future.  Nobody has a crystal ball.   It can happen.  But yes, they should have been more aware of his lack of focus, and perhaps they promoted him too fast.

".....don't blame him for problems which are only partially his fault.  When Gibbons put him in center with players like Valencia in leftfield and communications problems ensued, don't put it all on the rook...."

I don't see any evidence that the Jays are blaming Pompey for everything.  I'm sure they are critical of their own handling of him, wishing they had worked with him on his issues much earlier in his career.   I haven't seen any quotes or other evidence to suggest that the Jays are "blaming" Pompey.  They are working with him, trying to help him.  There were one or two comments by Jays coaches or managers in early 2015, explaining why he was demoted, and there was a brief mention of his confidence issues, but in general I think the Jays have been very discreet and diplomatic about Pompey.  That's why it has taken 15 months for this explanation to leak out through Lott's investigation.

I see James "Big Fly" Shields has so far given up 4 bombs in his 7 innings of work since his return to the AL. Last year he was able to lead the NL in home runs allowed despite playing for SD. Has that ever happened since PETCO was built? James has eaten up 7 innings in his two starts for Chicago, allowing 17 hits and 6 walks for a tidy 16.71 ERA. If he gets enough starts, he could lead the AL this year in home runs allowed, kind of like a reverse Frank Robinson.

Tulo in the lineup for dunedin today.

i buy the lack of focus claim much more than the defense claim they made in spring.

"Well, David Price is opting out in a couple of years..."

wait - you mean boston won't be on the hook for his salary longterm?

I can tell you, CF, that I was well aware of Rios' focus issues from the time he was in double A, and saw multiple reports about it.  And that was 10 years ago, before twitter was a thing.

i buy the lack of focus claim much more than the defense claim they made in spring.

I watched Pompey in spring training last year and in regular season games until he was sent down. i didn't think he got a good first step on the ball, which isn't surprising given that his background wouldn't have allowed for as many innings played as comparable players growing up in California like Pillar. He certainly runs well, but I thought he lacked some of the instincts necessary for a good center fielder. The same showed on one occasion at least that I can recall with taking charge on fly balls between outfielders.

i agree with you I think - his defensive mistakes were related more to brainfarts than anything else.

I thought that Pompey's jumps in MLB in 2014 were excellent, and that he was playing with confidence.  I don't recall any comments about less than stellar fielding ability or lack of focus then.

Just a friendly reminder that in Game 6 of the ALCS facing elimination and down 1 run in the 9th inning Dalton Pompey stole second AND third with no outs. Stranded there or not, he'll always be a legend in my mind.

I don't recall any comments about less than stellar fielding ability

Actually we had the same discussion at the time. I commented that i didn't think he got good breaks on the ball. You disagreed.

It certainly is possible that I've forgotten.  All I remember was my own view and Magpie's comments about poor Anthony Gose, struggling to win a job from Colby Rasmus and then watching Pompey flash by him making spectacular plays in the outfield.

Speaking of Colby's, one's throwing a perfect game after 6.

Goins/Barney is your double play combination today, with Bautista back in the leadoff spot and Saunders cleaning up. 

I was awfully negative about Carrera early in the year.  He sure is proving me wrong and it isn't only a BABIP fluke.  The walk rate is up, the K rate is down, the IsoP is up and the HR/fly rate is up.  I don't think he can hit .330 for a sustained period, but it's looking like .300 isn't so ridiculous given his bunting prowess.  If he hits .300 with an increased W rate and IsoP rate, he's a valuable 4th outfielder even if his fielding ability isn't great. 

ChinaFan, I am not sure what evidence you are basing your responses to Mike on but it is absolutely plausible that Pompey developed confidence issues in 2015. Understand, players of this caliber are not accustomed to failing on a macro scale, ever. Their first exposure to such struggles can be earth shattering, relatively speaking, as they have spent the vast majority of their lives experiencing nothing but prolonged personal success.

Further, from my own experiences coaching elite stream hockey, I can say that what is not plausible is the assertion that most players do not lose confidence upon a demotion. From my observations it is the exact opposite. What is rare about Pompey is his transparency about his struggles.

Stream hockey?

While I wasn't looking, Ryan Schrimpf has made the show with the Padres - congratulations
Also, Michael Ynoa & Matt Purke, onetime phenoms derailed by injuries have also made the show with the White Sox - I guess this means there is still hope for Jacob Anderson, Adonys Cardona & Matt Smoral.

Stream hockey?

It's like pond hockey, but the rinks are longer and narrower.

Quite the at bat from Martin there. Maybe he's not completely washed up.

Magpie's comments about poor Anthony Gose, struggling to win a job from Colby Rasmus and then watching Pompey flash by him

Your memory flatters me a little, because I mentioned Pompey flashing past Gose and Pillar. Yeah, maybe not so much on the last part.

The new second base slide rule is a joke.

Freddy Galvis batting second is a joke too. It all evens out.

Nola gets a learning experience.

Enjoy watching our hitters providing learning experiences.

J.A. Happ is the first Toronto pitcher to score a run since Todd Redmond in September 2013. (Marcus Stroman scored a couple of runs in 2014, but he was pinch-running rather than pitching.)

nice having our schedule lighten up a bit finally. this is much more fun.

The new slide rule should help us as much as any team in the league considering our pitchers have the AL's highest GB%.

The new slide rule should help us as much as any team in the league considering our pitchers have the AL's highest GB%.

That could well be. I wasn't criticizing it as unfair to Toronto. When the umpires on the field have no idea that the slide is illegal and a studied ruling comes over what was really minutae from New York declaring it illegal, something seems wrong to me. In order to be illegal, it should at least be somewhat obvious. You shouldn't need a microscope to find an illegal slide. Now we have guys like Angel Hernandez with a videotape making judgment calls on minor issues.

I think Happ likes being back in the NL.

Just one of Shapiro's excellent off-season and in-season value moves:

Estrada
Happ
Chavez
Dickey
Biagini
Grilli
Smoak
Barney
Carrera

And one dud (who might be turning it around): Storen.

You can quibble with the inclusion of Dickey, but that is a very solid collection of moves at very low aggregate cost and commitment. And no trades of prospects like Pompey, Reid-Foley or Tellez. Nice work, front office.

Now that is what the Jays needed. After the 7-0 loss and wakeup call the team has come alive outscoring the Phillies over the next 3 games 31-7. Hard to lose scoring 10 runs a game, hard to lose allowing just over 2 runs a game. Lots of confidence heading into Baltimore where a 3 game sweep could put the Jays into first place depending on the Red Sox.

"what are you guys wanting to spend all these savings on, exactly?"

Yeah, that's the thing. I can acknowledge that spending a bunch of money on mid-30's players isn't all that wise, but I am scratching my head trying to come up with a cromulent lineup the Jays can put together for 2017 that doesn't involve these players.

So potentially losing players...
Bautista, Edwin, Saunders, and Smoak
Plus pitchers...
Cecil, Dickey, Chavez, Storen, Floyd

Who replaces from within?
Pompey for one of Saunders, Bautista; Carrera for the other? Dwight Smith Jr (23 in AA hitting 278/335/417 is probably next best)
EE, Smoak - Tellez, Colabello?, Jesus Montero?

Yeah, not great choices. Tellez could be good, as could Montero but I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Same with Pompey & Carrera as full-timers.

Hutchison could take over for Dickey (might even do better this year if given a shot), Bullpens are always a crapshoot. Francisco Rios (21) could force his way into the conversation (1.91 ERA, 2 BB/9 9.2 K/9 in L-A & H-A combined) as could many others.

I have to think the Jays will resign at least one of Bautista/EE/Saunders/Smoak and maybe 2 or 3 of them depending on Tellez & Pompey and how they do the rest of the year and how far the Jays go this year. No playoffs = bye bye to most if not all of them, into playoffs I could see 2 kept, to WS maybe 3, win it all and keeping all 4 is possible. The pen and Dickey are complete guesswork but I wouldn't pay $8+ mil for any of those relievers next year. If Dickey has his usual strong second half I'd make the QO but if not then bye bye or low ball offer.

That most of the moves that Shapkins made this past offseason are working out gives hope for next year - I suspect there will be more stopgap small/moderate moves rather than any major trades/FA signings - If Travis & Tulo can show offensive resurgence for the rest of this year that will be a big boost for next year planning.

Had they brought Pompey, they could have rested Bautista in the 7th.
I understand that Burns and Goings can play the outfield, but that's not what I call a defensive substitution.

They need to replace RF/LF/1B/DH. Bautista is basically done in the outfield. Saunders cannot play more often than a platoon player. I don't really see Smoak as a starter even though he's been solid when he does play.

One of those guy could be DH. Another could be a first baseman. Pompey could be given the job in right field, but they still need a power bat in left. Montero could be a Smoak type that doesn't play everyday.  Thole has been killing the Dickey/Thole battery this year. Hutch should replace Dickey. That means they need a 6th starter in Buffalo and a couple of stretchable guys in the pen. The backup catcher will be the easiest one to replace.

Being able to stay healthy is an important part of getting a huge contract.

The options are slim in free agency, and this regime (rightfully) does not want to subtract from the farm system at the moment. So yes, it will be tough to replace Bautista/Edwin/Saunders with players from outside the organization. At the same time, you don't want to commit heavy dollars/years to players in their mid-30's because of lack of options, or in Saunders' case someone with huge injury red flags. The Jays still need to bring those players back at a cost that makes sense for the team. They will be assuming the bulk of the risk in any JB/EE extension considering the age and lack of defensive value of the players involved. Saunders without the plus defensive value in left is also less intriguing, although if he keeps hitting like this, then he can play 1B/DH.

How the Jays finish in 2016 will determine a lot of what happens this winter. However, I don't think there's any scenario, even winning a WS, that would make the FO feel obligated to overpay. I could see them giving a higher AAV for less years, especially if the value of a win keeps rising, but I don't see them saying 'OK Edwin, we made the playoffs again, so here's a four year offer'. I think they'll stand firm on that, as they should. Obviously, missing the playoffs entirely changes things. We'll have to wait to see which direction they decide to go in. This season will determine a lot.

Nice to see Schrimpf make the bigs - the PCL worked wonders for the guy, he could never get going in Buffalo. 

There have been a lot of great value signings of position players out of Korea the past few years - I could see us replenishing some of our losses through that route.  Not every position needs a star, although Kang in Pittsburgh certainly seems to have become one.  Tremendous value for the team.  I've also long thought that veteran Japanese pitchers can be valuable and affordable adds to the pen. 

Given the lack of options next year, I hope the Jays claim Oswaldo Arcia and then try to sneak him through waivers (ala Jesus Montero) - maybe the jays development people can help him in Buffalo - he's only 25.

Did you need a microscope to see Pillar roll into the middle infielder's legs? I sure did not.

It's unfortunate that Pillar's slide ended up right into Hernandez's foot, which caused him to roll the way he did, but it was a clear violation of 6.01(j). Luckily this came in a blowout, instead of giving the opponent a win as in Tampa Bay.

I do love that some people have literally convinced themselves that any team that signs Bautista or EE - 2 of the elitest hitters in the game - is making a mistake.

The WAR leaderboard per Fangraphs for the last 3 and 1/2 years- Trout, (gap), Donaldson, (gap), McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Machado, Cabrera.   With his uptick in the last couple of weeks, Donaldson is back on last year's pace. Great, great player in the prime of his career.

Nice to see Martin coming around. Hopefully his early season issues were nagging injury related rarther than precipitous decline.

If Tulo can get healthy and return to his pre-injury improvement, the offence will really be frightening

Whoever signs either of Bautista/EE will make a mistake if it is for 5+ years unless the per year rate is crazy low. Guaranteeing $150 mil to Bautista, or $100 mil to EE would be a poor move on a GM's part though. A 3 year deal at $30 per for Bautista could be justified, or a 5 year at $120 maybe but I wouldn't push it any further than that. EE I'd limit to 3 years/$75 mil max due to his inability to play anywhere but 1B or DH (and really is a pure DH who can play 1B once in awhile now). Saunders is a tough read, he is having a great year but injury concerns are very, very high with him - I see him as the most likely to resign of the group due to the uncertainty and the Jays knowing him best. EE to Boston seems a lock. Bautista I could see in LA with the Dodgers (strong bat for a team with an 88 OPS+).

I do love that some people have literally convinced themselves that any team that signs Bautista or EE - 2 of the elitest hitters in the game - is making a mistake.

You're saying this as if signing aging players as free agents doesn't frequently turn out to be just that.

I've always assumed that Bautista and EE will be gone after the season. The Jays will likely do the sensible thing and make offers that are appropriate for their age and skills. But some GM or owner/GM combo will likely go crazy and overpay to sign one or both of them. (I expect it will be Boston, since the Red Sox ownership has more money than they know what to do with, and they can use a new DH and first baseman.)

I wonder what will happen with Bautista. He is very intelligent, analytical and hard-working, and he has gone to great lengths to try to maximize his athletic performance. But he's just reached the age at which the human body starts to impose harsher age-related constraints.

"It's like pond hockey, but the rinks are longer and narrower."

There is also a lot more flow to the game.

Gibbons said that Sanchez would be used in a restricted fashion out of the pen- if he's up, he's in and no back-to-back outings. 

I was surprised that Osuna didn't come in yesterday.  He hasn't thrown since June 10.  Hopefully they can bring him in with a three run lead tonight so that he can shake off the rust with a margin of error.

I'm kinda glad they have been able to give Osuna the full week off.  He's looked like he's needed it, and they now have a fully fresh Osuna that they can use 2 or 3 times this weekend.

Bautista to the DL with his injured toe, Ceciliani up. This is a bad choice, nickel-and-diming with Pompey's service time rather than putting the best possible team on the field right now, in a season with a real shot at the playoffs. It's ridiculous, really - Pompey's batting average is higher than Ceciliani's slugging percentage.

Presumably the club intends to use Carrera and have Ceciliani as the 4th outfielder. 

I guess my issue at this point is that Bautista really does not look good in the outfield (due to his assorted injuries) and Saunders isn't a full-timer either.  I wish that the club and Bautista would commit to him at first base.  Maybe it'll happen at the All-Star break in about 3 weeks, at which point Pompey can come up without service time issues. 

Is this service time motivated? The only way he rolls his clock over on a year of service time is if he spends the rest of the year on the bench (he had 88 days coming in, and there's 100 or so days left, and he won't stay up when Bautista's back). I'm guessing they're starting Carrera (rightly or wrongly) and think that Ceciliani can handle sporadic playing time better than Pompey. Given his value as a pinch runner, I'm thinking that gives him more use to the team, but there does seem to be another line of thinking that's a baseball-only consideration.

I mean, it could be an attempt to gain another year of pre-arb, but that means he has zero chance to be up before September, and that's just cutting it way too close to worry about at this juncture.

Sorry, Spifficus, I don't follow.  172 days is a service year.  I might be stupid, but I thought that if the club called him up in mid-July so that he accrued 83 days or less of service time this year, they would have gained a year of control.  Have I missed something?

Goins and Barney are your DP combination for today.  The club has gone 13-6 and outscored the opponents 111-83 since Tulo went on the DL,

What is most shocking to me at least is the fact that based on how they have performed to date, Carrera is actually an upgrade over Bautista. Before anyone begins plucking the chickens and heating up the tar, I am not suggesting that would be the case going forward, only that it is unsettling to see both players with the same fWAR despite Carrera having roughly 1/3 the playing time of Bautista. Hands up if anyone saw that coming.

jerjapan I agree. The Japanese/Korean market has been neglected by the Jays and I don't fully understand why.

I remember AA saying they were pulling out of the Far East to concentrate all their off shore resources in Latin America. Didn't agree then and still don't.

Hope the new regime does take a broader approach.

You're right - my brain did the ~183 days of service that's in a calendar year, but forgot that 172 is what counts for a service time year. It doesn't really change much, though, given that Bautista's going to be back at some point (or else an OF *cough* Bruce *cough* will be acquired), there's not too much threat of that getting exceeded. The only way it becomes an issue is if he makes himself indispensable (which then falls into the category of "Nice Problem to Have") and Bautista's out until mid August. The hypothetical transition to 1B for Bautista you mentioned isn't going to happen mid season, so that's not going to create an opening. Overall, calling him up would add some uncertainty for service time, but it would merely move the needle from impossible to improbable. If there was a full-time opening for the rest of the year, it'd be a different equation, but right now there are too many variables that would have to break right.

I do love that some people have literally convinced themselves that any team that signs Bautista or EE - 2 of the elitest hitters in the game - is making a mistake.

Ugly, I see you’ve caught the “literally” bug.  Too bad.  (The “legit” one has had you for months.)

(I’m wondering what it would be like exactly if I figuratively convinced myself of something, as opposed to literally doing so.   My head is hurting here.)

But are they literally elitist, Dewey? Sorry.

There's an ad in the subway for a Second City improv performance. The ad quotes from a Toronto Sun reviewer who wrote about the performance, "It's literally a home run." I'll have to remember to bring my baseball glove when I go check it out.

A good counter example is that Armageddon movie of 1998. If you've never seen it, it's not the end of the world.

It's silly to think that Pompey is in Buffalo purely for service-time reasons.  There is plenty of evidence that the Jays are determined to build Pompey into a star -- and they believe that the biggest hurdle is his erratic focus.  They know that they can't solve that by putting him on the bench in Toronto.  Pompey's biggest problem isn't his lack of confidence -- he can be brilliant in short bursts, and supremely confident, as he showed when he stole those 2 bases in the same inning in the playoffs last year.  His problem is that he doesn't focus on the game for the entire 9 innings, and the Jays can't solve that problem by giving him a bench job in Toronto.  That's why they prefer to give the bench jobs to players like Carrera and Ceciliani, who can sit idle for most of the game without losing any focus when they need it for pinch-hitting or late innings or other temporary assignments.

In the John Lott article of yesterday, the comments by Pompey himself, and by his coaches, make it very clear that he is still trying to learn to focus entirely on the game at hand. Consider this quote, in which he is describing the situation as it existed "until recently" -- in other words, he is describing the early stages of the 2016 season.  Here's the quote:

“If I struck out, I’d be thinking about it for at least an inning,” he said. “When I was making mistakes, whether it was on the bases or in the field or swinging at bad pitches, it was because I was thinking about something totally different from the actual task at hand..... I understood the fact there was stuff kind of clouding my mind, but I didn’t know how to stop it.  I knew those thoughts were there but I didn’t know how to refocus.”

How can you promote a player to Toronto if he still openly admits that he's distracted from the ball game?  He says that now he is finally beginning to address this problem, with the help of Gil Kim, the new director of player development.  But he's still in the early stages of fixing this problem, and it doesn't make sense to promote him until he has consistently resolved it.   His own coaches are saying that they'll need to see him consistently doing this in July and August, not just in June.  Here's Gary Allenson:

"....Dalton’s been good, but now he’s got to keep it going,” Allenson said. “Wait until the end of July and in August. You come to the ballpark tired. It can be tough to get it going. But when the game starts, that’s when the mental clock turns on and you have to show you can compete.”

That, says Allenson, will serve as the true test of Pompey’s new routine.

The WAR leaderboard per Fangraphs for the last 3 and 1/2 years-

Interesting notes: 8 of 30 are in the AL East (plus a few that used to be like Zobrist and Cano). Jays have 3 of the top 30 - that's 3x their "fair share" :-)
(Bautista is at 13, EE at 30). Donaldson at 26.4 is almost exactly 2x EE's 13.4. Imagine if we had traded for Zobrist...

On another note: I wonder if (depending on a lot of factors), Saunders, Bautista and EE could form a 3-headed 1B/DH/LF platoon? Each player plays maybe 104 games in the field, and DHs for 55 games. EE plays 104 games at 1B, RS and JB each play approx 80 games each in LF, 25 games each at 1B and DH for 55 games...

We resign EE/JB for reasonable contracts, RS gets the qualifying offer, Pompey to RF. Yeah, Smoak ends up the odd man out.. But he might want $10M next year anyway..