A Serious Series?  A Hard Purple Rain's Gonna Fall? With two suffering teams, apocalyptic nightmares seem entirely natural and what better place to have them than Minnesota.

It's really hard to figure the Twins.  The offence can't be so bad with Mauer, Dozier, Sano and Park around (and Byron Buxton and Max Kepler who ought to be good someday soon).  On the other hand, they had no right to be where they were at this time last year- they were 30-19 at the end of May.  The Twin bullpen has been all kinds of atrocious.

Gibby's last stand?

ESPN has Hughes starting on Sunday..

Fangraphs has the RC as an extreme pitcher's park from a fly-ball perspective in 2016 (they use exit speed to generate projected average and slugging percentage and compare it to actual).  It's a bit of a rough calculation vis a vis both exit speed and angle.  The Blue Jays do generate a lot of long "pop-ups" to the outfield, i.e. short very fly balls. 

Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson are in the 1-2 slots in the batting order today with Smoak and Saunders batting 4-5.  Interesting.

And Paredes in at second base, too.  Maybe in preparation for the Minnesota trip Gibby's been listening to some Dylan (Gonna Change my Way of Thinking, indeed). 

Bautista's career line of 362/443/913 at Target Field probably has something to do with it. Gibbons is probably afraid of losing a one-run game with Bats standing in the on-deck circle when the final out is recorded.

Also, desperate times, desperate measures, etc.

Gibby's last stand?

We live in interesting times, and all manner of things are possible. But usually, winning 93 games buys a guy more than two months. Usually.

Any grammar authorities in the house?

https://twitter.com/markzwol/status/733403466094116866

The players, not Gibbons instigated this change. Nice of them to realize Bautista at the top is the best leadoff guys the Jays have. He does have the best on base skills on the team by far.

Well, " manner" *is* singular, right? 

But things is plural! Hence my dilemma!

It is a strange idiom. "All" is an adjective there but is plural- all types, all kinds etc. The singular version is "each".

It sounds better with the plural "are" as Magpie had it- perhaps because of the implied plural from "all".

If I'd stuck with "many things" all of this could have been avoided. But no. I had to get fancy while I was typing. Even though I'd already moved on to other things in my head.

Since, as you observe, "many things" can be directly substituted for "all manner of things", I think the former can be used as a grammatical guide for the latter.  You wouldn't say "many things is possible" so "are possible" is correct for both.  That's how I see it, anyway.

Well, we'd all heard Paredes had a lousy glove. Comforting to see that demonstrated so quickly.

Buck furiously trying to save Goins' job.

Thanks for reminding me what I'm missing by watching the Twins feed, ugly... not much.

Buck furiously trying to save Goins' job.

Travis had three hits for Buffalo tonight. He's days away from coming back, and one of Goins, Barney, or Paredes becomes redundant.

doesn't magpie - buck is adamant that travis has to stay down for a few more weeks. too bad for us.

I know he doesn't have anything to show for it, but Tulo seems to be having some really good ABs tonight, with some solid contact.

Ah.  Very gratifying to see a minor squabble over grammar break out on Da Box.  There's hope for us yet.  Thoughtful arguments put forward, too.  What more can one ask?

Well done, gents.

What more can one ask?

Any manner of things!

a non stats hottake.....


Buehrle - chill and cheerful
Navarro - chill and cheerful
Colabello - chill and cheerful
Price - chill and cheerful
Kawasaki - cheerful

anyone else think this year's team is a little overly intense?

bring back Stir The Pot already.

Congratulations Biagini, good job.

Hey, what's the one-run record now?

4-10

Biagini's first five outings: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 7 K

His last six outings: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K

Declining strikeout rate notwithstanding, it looks like the kid is getting better over time. Oh, and he has yet to allow a HR.

Good Rule 5 pick. Not only is he someone to be stashed away for the future, he's already become a mainstay of the bullpen.

uglyone, having Travis back on the team might help loosen things up a bit.

Good point Uglyone about chill and cheerful. There was so much talk last year from the players and FO about how important team chemistry was.

Winning causes good chemistry as much or more as good chemistry causes winning.

Veterans on long contracts or backups who are just happy to be there are the usually cheery players.

I don't think Tulo and Martin joking and fooling around would improve the mood any.

I don't recall hearing much about the magnificent team chemistry when they were 50-51 (apart from some perhaps overblown reporting about the team pointedly ignoring LaTroy Hawkins when he arrived, in silent protest for their departed mate Jose Reyes). If luck is the residue of design, last year chemistry was the residue of a tremendous two month run of baseball. The "great chemistry" argument was a good explanation for the eyebrow raising celebrations that followed the playoff clinching and ALDS, however.

I want to start a rock band and name it The Manners Of Thing. (Or perhaps not.)

Clubhouse chemistry is a chicken and egg thing. If players are relaxed and cheerful, they play better and win more. But players don't become relaxed and cheerful until they win games. It can become a horrible vicious circle.

Fun Tulo fact of the day: at home, he is hitting .169/.253/.296. Ouch. (On the road, he is .221/.311/.468.)

speaking of bizarre tulo splits....

vRHP: 127pa, .229babip, 109wrc+
vLHP: 42pa, .179babip, -2wrc+

he's been a very solid bat against righties, but absolutely useless against lefties.

riddled with extreme splits actually.

To go along with Dave's Home (44wrc+) / Away (111wrc+) splits, we can add:

Low Lev: 67pa, 144wrc+
Med Lev: 83pa, 33wrc+
High Lev: 19pa, 62wrc+

and

Batting 5th: 122pa, 62wrc+
Batting 6th: 47pa, 127wrc+

There might be a narrative about his mental approach hidden in there somewhere.

A tardy bravo for mathesond.  That's an elegant solution to Magpie's Dilemma.  (At least it works for me.)  Nice.

Magpie's Dilemma is sort of like Schroedinger's Cat, just a different breed.

Tulo's line-drive game-winning hit was notable for a couple of reasons.  His line-drive rate this year is a very low 8.5%, but heading upwards slowly.   So far, his season reminds me a lot of Aaron Hill's 2010.  Hill's LD rate dropped dramatically that year to 10.6%, his FB rate increased dramatically (as Tulo's has) and his pull rate increased as well (as Tulo's has).   Hill, of course, struggled in 2011 also but put up good years in 2012 and 2013. 

I am hopeful that Tulo will regain his timing and continue to drive the ball from gap to gap on a line regularly.  He can do that now.

The losing record colors things, but the number of close games has made the baseball fun to watch, if not the outcome.

Good Rule 5 pick. Not only is he someone to be stashed away for the future, he's already become a mainstay of the bullpen.

That's a pretty damning indictment of the Blue Jays bullpen of 2016 right there. The fact a Rule 5 guy was needed to close this one out.

Still, I was impressed with Biagini's holding of Danny Santana at first base before picking him off at second. He showed some nice patience there to wait Santana out before throwing him out. If it wasn't against the Jays, I'd say that Eduardo Escobar's diving stop at short to rob Bautista of a go-ahead RBI in the 10th was super awesome. I really hope Tulo is coming out of it. Santana robbed him in the ninth.

Meanwhile, Gibby gets the dreaded vote of confidence from Mark Shapiro.

cheapo relievers ($3.5m for 4):

RP Osuna 18gms, 18.0ip, 29.0k%/7.3bb%, 34.1gb%, 36era-, 57fip-, 81xfip-, 2.2war/65ip
RP Floyd 15gms, 20.0ip, 27.6k%/5.3bb%, 53.1gb%, 54era-, 75fip-, 81xfip-, 1.8war/65ip
RP Biagini 12gms, 15.1ip, 17.7k%/9.7bb%, 57.8gb%, 14era-, 66fip-, 98xfip-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Girodo 8gms, 7.0ip, 14.3k%/3.6bb%, 72.7gb%, 62era-, 111fip-, 78xfip-, 0.5war/65ip

Pricey relievers ($20.2m for 3):

RP Chavez 15gms, 14.1ip, 27.0k%/7.9bb%, 45.0gb%, 76era-, 134fip-, 87xfip-, 0.0war/65ip
RP Cecil 16gms, 10.1ip, 17.3k%/5.8bb%, 40.5gb%, 126era-, 90fip-, 109xfip-, 0.0war/65ip
RP Storen 17gms, 14.0ip, 22.4k%/6.0bb%, 47.8gb%, 200era-, 136fip-, 86xfip-, -1.9war/65ip

This Texas restaurant really sucks courtesy of Rughead. Scroll to the bottom of the page to find out why.

Chavez being used as a high leverage reliever seems like something done due to circumstance (Sanchez becoming a good starter) rather than by design. If Sanchez was in the pen and Chavez/Floyd were in the rotation, like they probably anticipated going into ST, then the pen would be 'cheaper' and probably better. Although, long-term Sanchez in the rotation was by far the right call, especially now that he's proven to have turned the corner as a pitcher.

Line drives by Tulowitzki and Donaldson to right center field this inning.  A very good sign. 

Starting with Goins and using Paredes later in the game when they need a hit, makes tons of sense.

Also Paredes is so bad defensively that they can only use him--barely--when Estrada starts and almost everything is a flyball.

This place sure us quiet when the jays win convincingly. :-)

Shhh! don't draw attention to it!

The only Shapiro move that hasn't worked out is Revere for Storen and trading an expensive surplus left fielder for bullpen help was the right move.

I find it interesting that Storen's closer routine included 3 innings of mental preparation before a quick warm up. Now, he's struggling to face hitters he's not familiar with without much preparation. And of course the velocity drop doesn't help either.

This place sure us quiet when the jays win convincingly. :-)

I attended the 25-4 Monday/Tuesday massacre, so I'm still in the recovery room.

I'm happy for this, but I don't want to draw conclusions from facing the worst team in the AL. If they can carry these results over to a good team that's something different.

Often the mark of a great team is pounding the horrid ones into the dirt when the chance is there.

Last year vs last place teams...
Boston: 9-10
Detroit: 4-2
Oakland: 5-1
Philly: 2-2
Cincinnati: did not play
Colorado: did not play
Total vs last place teams: 20-15 (93 win pace)

vs first place teams...
Dodgers: dnp
Cardinals: dnp
Mets: 2-2
Texas: 4-2
KC: 4-3
Total: 10-7 (95 win pace)

vs Division....
Yankees: 13-6
Rays: 9-10
Orioles: 11-8
Red Sox: 9-10
Total: 42-34 (90 win pace)

Huh. 2015 Jays were pretty consistent. They beat the bad teams, beat the best teams more, beat their rivals a bit less. The only weakness was 1 run games (15-28) which are largely shown to be luck based not skill based via multiple studies.

They were facing a pitcher with an ERA below 2. That's not exactly pounding a weak opponent.

I won't be happy unless they complete the sweep to get back to .500.

and then its NY-BOS-NY-BOS the next 2 weeks and we better make a move up the standings.

I think the Jays record pre/post game 100 split in their 2015 record would swamp any signal "beating the bad teams" narrative would have -- this year if the Jays finish strong a strength of schedule argument might be made. 3rd order winning percentages seem to be pointing that way:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Did Donaldson just set the record for fastest ejection ever by a Blue Jays player? (2 out, top of 1st)

I get the feeling that umpires have lost patience with the Jays and while Donaldson maybe didn't curse AT the umpire, it was a bad time to be shouting f bombs.

Our favorite announcers mad the comment that a day game after a night game might make umps cranky..... hell yeah, especially if they're hung over!

it's absolutely comical to hear our tweedledee and tweedledumb complain about defensive shifts every single time, only to see balls hit right at fielders time and time again.

Despite being one of the harder HR parks in MLB the whole time, Bautista now has 13 HR in 20 games at Target Field, which is approximately 105 HR pace for a full season.

"it's absolutely comical to hear our tweedledee and tweedledumb complain about defensive shifts every single time, only to see balls hit right at fielders time and time again."

I had the same thoughts.

I tend to give teams the benefit of the doubt re: shifts. I am sure it is based on data that I haven't looked at, and I'm even more sure it's based on data that Buck hasn't looked at.

Maybe the Twins will offer him 150M for 5 years.

Last night was Russell Martin's 20th consecutive game without an extra-base hit, which is the worst of his career. He did go 18 games without an XBH in 2011, hitting .141/.263/.141 over those games. Martin of course only has the 1 XBH this season, a double on April 23.

His 36 games without a homer is only second-worst, however, as he didn't hit his first homerun until game 61 in 2009.

Just because, I know you were all wondering.

Last 10gms before today:

Tulo: 42pa, 4.8bb%, 16.7k%, .310bip/.316avg, .342iso, 172wrc+

Biagini is 3 month older than Hutch and he makes me wonder who the Giants were hiding on their 40 roster.
In fact, Baseball Prospectus listed the 101 best prospect in baseball and none of those are in the Giants system.

So Gavin Floyd might not be the set-up solution either.

Also:  Darrin Matroianni comes back to haunt the Jays.

its been a pretty remarkable performance by our bullpen this year. not sure i've ever seen anything quite like it.

Darn it, I misspelled "Mastroianni" even though I definitely know how to spell it -- since it's the same as Marcello's surname....

The problem with winning two or three out of four in Minnesota is that most or all of your key rivals are going to do the same (or better), because the Twins aren't a good team. Three out of four is acceptable, two is an unsuccessful series.

The bullpen has been very bad, but Gibbons really has had a leaden touch this year. That's not to say he's to blame - it just that many of his moves in critical situations have failed to work out (perhaps inevitably), in a huge way.

Yet another game lost while leading late.

Seriously, the Jays have 24 losses all year and I think 9 of them have been leading in the 7th or later.

0-20 when allowing 4 runs or more.

I don't think Gibbons really has a lot of options (I'm open to a trade for a solid bullpen piece going through) but I have to wonder about the mentality of using converted starters in reliever roles, aka getting one out with runners on base. Both Floyd and Chavez while they've been good for parts of the year seem to have stugglin with coming in with men on base. I wonder if being starters for most of their careers factors in there. I think those two would perform better if brought in for fresh innings, but it doesn't leave Gibbons with many choices other than Osuna and maybe Biagani for when runners are on.

There was a lot about that game that was like a lot of games this season. Pitcher is cruising but no run support, then a late lead is blown and they can't get it back.

High Leverage before today:

Osuna: 13tbf, 1.18fip, 3.34xfip
Floyd: 20tbf, 1.68fip, 2.79xfip
Storen: 17tbf, 2.17fip, 3.26xfip
Venditte: 4tbf, 4.59fip, 4.59xfip
Biagini: 6tbf, 5.34fip, 5.34xfip
Chavez: 10tbf, 6.95fip, 3.41xfip
Cecil: 23tbf, 10.09fip, 9.97xfip
Leon: 1tbf, 16.09fip, 4.67xfip
Tepera: 5tbf, 30.09fip, 30.09xfip

maybe we should keep throwing storen out there.

Floyd moved to the slide-step after Santana had third base stolen on his first pitch (which hit Dozier). That may have contributed.

It does look like you are better to bring him in to start an inning.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=323355

Can the redundant player(s) be traded for prospect(s) ? What a tradeback if Anthony Gose could be a Jays again.

That seems to be true of everyone.

I'm not sure I can remember a stretch like this where inherited runners feel guaranteed to score. I'm surprised it's only 44%, which is still the worst in baseball.

Eduardo Nunez? Seriously?

Glad I missed it.

Gibbons is very good at evaluating a Bullpen, but I don't believe he's as good when he's evaluating Starters.

David Price had very little Postseason success and had struggled for the Jays in their Postseason. He throws a 1-hitter through 6.0 innings on less than 75 pitches and a 3-0 lead. The next day is an off-day so Gibbons basically has a full Bullpen to use in a must-win game. Blue Jays lose 6-3 and fall to 0-2 in the series.

J.A. Happ had his head handed to him in a previous game. He then throws 7.0 shutout innings on less than 85 pitches and a 2-0 lead. Gibbons has arms he can use. Blue Jays lose 5-3 and fall three games under .500 again.

There are times when people can be trusted, there are times when people should be trusted and there are times when people might be trusted. It hard to know which time it is, but Gibbons needs to be better.

Eduardo Nunez? Seriously?
Glad I missed it.

Nunez has put on some muscle since his Yankee days.  He has hit 7 home runs in less than 340 at-bats over the last 2 years.  At this point, he's got more pop than Joe Mauer.  The home run today was not a cheapie...

If Gibbons had taken out Happ after 7 and the bullpen had come in and blown it, people would be all over Gibbons. I am generally in favor of taking pitchers out early, but someone else said it -- he just has the lead touch right now. Everything he does backfires.

Happ was up against the 6-7-8 hitters, 3rd time through the order. I wouldn't let the lineup turn over again but the game was tied by the #9 batter, what can you do.

Hard to get on the managing of the pitching staff when the team is scoring 2 or 3 runs a game.

That's it, in a nutshell. The bullpen hasn't been great, to put it mildly, but this popgun attack is putting the bullpen in a position to fail. The Jays should be eating up AAAA pitching like they faced today, but instead they let the Twins stick around and paid the price. Of course, it doesn't help that supposed leaders like Donaldson selfishly get themselves tossed in the first inning, giving Goins three extra at-bats instead of the league MVP. People here like to give Bautista a pass for his shoddy treatment of the umpires, but his example seems to be rubbing off on Donaldson and Sanchez, among others, and it has real consequences.

"Of course, it doesn't help that supposed leaders like Donaldson selfishly get themselves tossed in the first inning"

Utter nonsense. The ejection was pure Umpshow.

Jays are apparently trying to shop Drew Storen. I wish them the best of luck.

The ejection was pure Umpshow.

With the ump's wife subsequently tweeting that her husband had just ejected Donaldson, as if this were some sort of achievement to be celebrated.

With the ump's wife subsequently tweeting

The idea that Chuck located a tweet of that woman is smart -- knowing where to look for relevant information about a topic. So next time around about an controversy on a player performance, look for online information of the relatives of people involved.

The idea that Chuck located a tweet of that woman is smart

Well, Chuck didn't do that. He read about the tweet in a write-up of the game.

Just adds to the myth that people pay to watch the umps, not the ball players.

goins sitting vs the RHP today. hallelujah.

".....it doesn't help that supposed leaders like Donaldson selfishly get themselves tossed in the first inning...."

It wasn't selfish, but it was probably a little careless on Donaldson's part.  The Twins were taunting him from the dugout, and he rose to the bait.  The result was that he shouted the F-word (to the Twins) at the exact moment when he was passing the umpire.  If there is even a small chance that this kind of shouted obscenity might get a player into trouble withe umpire -- regardless of whether the umpire is being egotistical or not -- then the player should try to restrain himself.  What's the point of exchanging taunts with the Twins dugout anyway?  If they're taunting you, answer them with an extra-base hit, not a shouted obscenity.

I don't know if "turn the other cheek" is the best motto for a baseball team. They're there to compete with an opponent, not take BP, shag flies and throw bullpen sessions. Lots of players talk about trying to find an edge to compete with, and Donaldson seems to be one of those players that thrives on agression / playing 'mad' (and Bautista, if post-HBP HRs are to be believed). They don't get to turn it on and off on a dime, and sometimes you just have to accept the bad with the good.

Donaldson with a big F-you to the Twins dugout there. hashtag-expertanalysis!

Yes, a much more effective response from JD today.

embarassing stuff from the umps, again.

Embarrassing actions from a Joe West crew? I'm shocked! Also, Gibbons just can't seem to stick around for a whole game these days. Maybe this is his response to the bad-luck bullpen maneuvers - remove himself from the equation. /s

superman. unreal.

Yet another incredible catch by our Superman, and saved a run too.

That was good even for Pillar.  Wow.

I also remember the 1991 game they're talking about. White homered, Alomar homered, and Carter was hit by the next pitch. (Which got Gullickson ejected.) Carter took a few steps towards the mound, thought better of it, and took his base.

Coming into today's game, Martin had a -0.8 WAR, 18 wRC+, and an OPS of .431 (despite a BABIP right in line with his career average). That was before his 0-3 with 2 K's performance today. He's signed for three more years after this one, taking him through age 36, for $60M. He's never been this bad, but all the underlying numbers are so bad, and none of them point to bad luck, so I'm not even sure whether I should be expecting a bounce back or not. Tulo is at least starting to bounce back a bit, but Martin looks done, and it's way too early in his contract for that to happen if the Jays want to get any sort of value out of it. I'd expect these type of numbers if the Jays promoted DJ Davis to the Majors right now. Awful. I hope this is not a sign of things to come.

Martin hasn't struck out today.

stop fretting SK. Martin didn't cost any prospects and doesn't block your exciting epic rebuild.

My mistake, I saw "2" in the box score, but it was under LOB, not strike outs. On cue, he strikes out. So it's 1 now.

OK. Now he has.  This is a frighteningly familiar pattern.  Too much ego from the entire club after a couple of home runs early.  Saunders has been the exception- he's been trying to hit the ball hard all season without trying to hit it out of the ball park.

Now he has.

Assuming he doesn't get another PA, that's 21 games since his last extra-base-hit.

Among players with at least 100 PA, the two AL players with the lowest OPS (by 50 points!) are Russell Martin and Ryan Goins.

We can talk all day about who should bat leadoff or if Edwin is going to get hot, but when you have two supermassive black holes in your lineup it doesn't much matter.

Unfortunately, $75M in dead weight (assuming we are seeing the beginning stages of Martin's decline) will hurt the rebuild. No one is trading for a catcher in his mid-30's making $20M a year from ages 34-36, and certainly not when he's hitting like this.

Although, I'm a little surprised that you're conceding a rebuild might actually be necessary after this year. I was under the impression that stars never age and investing tons of prospect capital and free agent dollars for them was the smart way to build a sustainable team. Maybe Martin will get better as he ages, as most players with wear and tear on their bodies usually do when they approach the end of their careers.

I get frustrated by things I can't understand.

I can't understand why this team cannot score after their first trip through the lineup.

why would $20m for 3yrs hurt your beloved rebuild? your beloved rebuild doesn't involve signing vet free agents, does it?

Martin didn't cost any prospects

Blue Jays lost their first round pick in the 2015 draft for signing Martin.

That was some ugly sh*t. Maybe the least impressive series win I've seen in a while.

Have to start playing better, and real soon, or a long summer coming in. Very disappointing.

"....when you have two supermassive black holes in your lineup it doesn't much matter...."

 Barney continues to hit well, and Travis is on the verge of returning to the majors, so there's really no need to worry about one of those black holes.  And a good offensive team can easily afford to carry one poor hitter, especially at a crucial defensive position like catcher.  The real issue is to get better production from the top half of the lineup.  Which could still happen.

"....investing tons of prospect capital and free agent dollars for them was the smart way to build a sustainable team...."

We don't know whether it is sustainable.  But we know for certain that the strategy of 2015 led to a division-winning team, with 93 wins, that came very close to reaching the World Series.  It also turned around the franchise by expanding the fan base and generating revenue that should help this team for years to come.  (Unless the owners simply pocket the money, which is still an open question.  I guess we'll know after the trade deadline.)  None of those achievements are something for us to pooh-pooh, despite some critics seeming to believe that it was a very insignificant thing.

It's usually possible to acquire bullpen depth at deadline, but in this case the jays cannot trade a bunch of prospects for 2 months of relief help. Will see how that plays out in 2 months. Lots of ball to play until then.

nah the issue really is the black holes.

Saunders 164wrc+
Bautista 139
Donaldson 137
Smoak 132
(Paredes 245
Carrera 136
Barney 127)

En'cion 106
Tulo 83
Pillar 76

Martin 14
Goins 12
(Thole 30
Cola -40)


compared to last year:

Donaldson 154
En'cion 150
Bautista 148
Cola 142
Martin 114
(Valencia 127)
(Smoak 107)

Travis 135 / Goins 84
Pillar 93
Tulo 91 / Reyes 93
Revere 102 / Pompey 81
(Carrera 90)
(Navarro 84)


Last year there were no black holes.

I also remember the 1991 game they're talking about. White homered, Alomar homered, and Carter was hit by the next pitch. (Which got Gullickson ejected.)

I remember that game vividly. Gullickson hit Carter by throwing behind his head. This, needless to say, is the most dangerous thing a pitcher can do - the impulse is to back away from the ball. It looked like a deliberate attempt to cause a serious injury because the pitcher was feeling miffed.

Encarnacion's decline from 2015 is a big factor in the offensive problems, and I really believe it will turn around.  Personally I think Martin is far from "done" and will certainly improve as well.

Call me hopelessly optimistic if you wish, but I see lots of reasons to believe that the lineup (aside from Martin and Goins) has been better than we realize, and has suffered from bad luck in RISP situations, to some extent. 

I like the rotation, I like the closer, I like most of the lineup, and I think the bullpen will improve with the return of Loup and Cecil.  Of course you can't judge anything from a series against the Twins, but I think the Jays have been victims of some bad luck (especially in the bullpen, which has been mediocre but isn't as bad as it has looked) and I believe the Jays are due for the ball to begin bouncing their way in the near future.

Hard to know with Martin if the issue is nagging injuries. Not uncommon with a catcher and he's not one to admit it. Even if he sucks all year, I'd wait till next year before writing him off.

But yeah right now he's looking pretty ugly, and with the challenges for the team to produce runs, there's nowhere to hide

I wonder if the Jays will try to sign Saunders to an extension during the season. Based on today's lineup, the team is slated to lose its #1, 3, 4 and 6 hitters to free agency after the season.

Whether Saunders is interested in foregoing free agency is another question, of course.

Saunders is a huge health risk. I wouldn't go beyond 2 years.

Yes. A good team can afford to carry a poor hitter. But you are using the word "poor" here which is woefully inadequate. A poor hitter is Pillar. The Jays can afford to carry Pillar. Then they have Tulo, whom they can also probably afford to carry, and THEN they've been carrying two other guys who have been significantly worse than those two, which has been crippling. Even if Martin had been hitting normal-poorly like Pillar the Jays would probably have at least an extra win, might be .500.

It is hard to win too many games in the AL with two guys hitting like pitchers. I hope Travis's return is imminent and significant. I fear that his hot start to last year has raised expectations a bit too high.

Last year I wrote that Martin might not be a 130-game catcher any more, and that the Jays would be wise to start resting him more. He took quite a beating in 2015 (including some of Dickey's starts), and he started a bunch of extra games in the playoffs. It might be that he's starting to wear down a bit. I'm guessing that he has also been significantly hampered by injuries in 2016.

I don't think travis just had a hot start....he was iirc even better when he came back in July.

his babip will go down ans he won't post a 135wrc+ but he should be at least average and a decent chance he's better than that.

"why would $20m for 3yrs hurt your beloved rebuild? your beloved rebuild doesn't involve signing vet free agents, does it?"


Other than your usual attempts at trolling, I'm not sure what the heck you are arguing. Martin has been terrible this year and there's no signs of bad luck behind the struggles. I know that's a sore spot for you since AA signed him (lord knows we have to hear you whine whenever J.A. Happ has a bad inning so if Shapiro had signed Martin your tone would likely be different), but again, what does that have to do with his struggles?

As far as your other point, a dead asset making $20M a year until he's 36 is not what a rebuilding team wants. Hell, if he keeps hitting like this, it's not what a team 'going for it' would want, either. Now, he could rebound, if not this year then next season, but chances are if he's hitting like this in his mid-30's for a prolonged period of time, it makes a bounce back to his previous levels a lot less likely. Too early to draw conclusions? Sure. It's still mid-May. He could have a good 2nd half and erase some of the doubts. But nothing he's done so far is encouraging.

If you can clarify what you're arguing next time in between writing "beloved rebuild" in every sentence, that would be helpful. Lord knows arguing here would be more entertaining than talking about how the Jays have played the first month and a half.

Based on today's lineup, the team is slated to lose its #1, 3, 4 and 6 hitters to free agency after the season.

Slated to lose?  They are free agents - they can come back.  Smoak salvaged his career here, Jose and EE want to come back, and Saunders was reportedly delighted to be a Jay.  We will be on the hook for around $90 million next year - we can resign almost all of our FAs if we want.  My guess is that we give a QO to Saunders and look to get either him or Smoak on a reasonable deal, and one of the big bat vets.  No idea why so many people think it's a foregone conclusion that we are rebuilding next year.  We can give a QO to dickey or let him walk and we still look to have a solid rotation.  The pen is easy enough to address.    Stro, Sanchez, Pillar, Osuna and Travis are a pretty great young core to go with Donaldson, even if the big ticket vets have actually nosedived. 

Do people actually think that Rogers / Shapiro / etc are indifferent to the spike in fan interest from last years playoff run?  Even if they are as bottom-line driven as everyone says, fielding a winner aids the bottom line.  IMO, they aren't likely to drive the salary lower without it impacting fan excitement. 

According to Fangraphs, Martin has to generate $61 million in value over the next 3 1/2 seasons for his contract to be fair (and I don't believe they factor pitch framing into their player value stat?)  ' $75M in dead weight' is more than a tad hyperbolic. To argue now, after 130 some-odd ABs that he won't bounce back somewhat, is premature.  I  agree with Grjas - let's give a season to the guy before we write him off. 

We were at that '91 game with our kids. First time ever in Tiger Stadium...first three batters of the game.

We were almost late sitting down. The guy operating the first and nearest lot we tried to park in waved us off in our Volvo (hated that car for a variety of reasons:) "You can't park that car here!"

Why would it be a good idea after a year where bad contracts to old guys are hurting the Jays and the guys whose contracts are about to expire are underperforming would the Jays want to double down on the old guys? Now sure if they can get EE or Jose to agree to a 2-3 year short term extension like Beltre just got than cool. But if they're still wanting to get paid like their demands this past offseason that's another thing entirely. You think this team is struggling now with older players underperforming just wait two more years with a lineup of mid 30s Tulo, Martin, EE and Jose costing 80+ million a year and sucking up the lineup.

No one says the Jays need to lower the salary. Just don't waste it on a bunch of 35 year old players. Invest in youth. Invest in players on the right side of 30. Invest in players whose best years are ahead of them, not behind them. Building a winner that way has a lot more chance of success than fielding a team where 32+ year olds make up 80% of your payroll. I doubt the average fan cares who wears the uniform as long as they're winning. The management should do whatever maximizes their chances of competing both short and long term.

The third name on Martin's list of most comparable players is Del Crandall, the Braves' outstanding catcher of the late 1950s. Like Martin, Crandall was a solid complementary bat and a very fine defensive player. Through age 32, Crandall had hit .260/.317/.421, OPS+ of 100 (Martin through age 32 has hit .257/.352/.405, OPS+ of 104.)

In his age 33 season, Crandall just collapsed to .201/.251/.251 and never played regularly again.

There are some other circumstances, naturally. Crandall had had more injury issues to this point than Martin. The Braves new manager didn't much like Crandall, and Joe Torre - not much of a catcher, but a very good hitter - was forcing his way into the lineup.

Happily, the other people on Martin's most comparable list are much more encouraging than Crandall.

The pen is easy enough to address.

Now would be a good time.

"a dead asset making $20M a year until he's 36 is not what a rebuilding team wants"

how does it make a difference to a (beloved) rebuild either way?

"Invest in players on the right side of 30"

players on the right side of 30 don't cost much.

Invest in players on the right side of 30.

This is not a new idea, and it's not like the previous FO was oblivious to it.  Of course, young OR old players can be good investments, and of course, all MLB front offices know this.  Constantly going on about the aging core is one-note, and oblivious to the fact that teams can win with older rosters.  If this is all so obvious, why do teams continue to make the error of investing in older players? 

What frustrates me about the discourse on the Box around the direction of the team is that a lot of people think the same thing - big FA contracts are bad!  invest in youth!  horde prospects! - and insist that these are axiomatic truths.    When a bunch of people think the same thing, to my mind, that's the time to do something differently.  And I say that as a big fan of the prospect development approach. 

The pen is easy enough to address.

Now would be a good time.

Easy enough to address in the offseason was the point of my post Magpie.  Not so easy midseason, agreed.  IMO, to fix the current mess, start using Osuna more, and in non-closer roles, let Storen figure stuff out in long relief, and maybe give AA reliever Danny Barnes a shot.  What would you do?

The majority of your payroll is pretty much always going to be going to older players; that is just how MLB is structured.

There is no team out there where most of their payroll is going to 25 year olds.

Bryce Harper is only making $5M this season. Because of that, it allows Washington to spend $22M on 31-year-old Max Scherzer. That's just how it works.

Sidenote: They are also paying 21M to Jayson Werth apparently. I had no idea. He's 37.

Paying lots of money to players who are bad is really where the problem is.

why do teams continue to make the error of investing in older players?

Because they're the ones that are available.

Based on today's lineup, the team is slated to lose its #1, 3, 4 and 6 hitters to free agency after the season.

Bautista, EE, Saunders and Smoak?

Baseball-reference has Donaldson at 1.8 WAR, Pillar at 1.3, and Barney at 0.9.
Saunders at 1.3, Bautista at 0.9, Smoak at 0.4 and EE at 0.3.

Loup and Schultz are on rehab assignment with Travis in Buffalo.

Excellent point Magpie. Last winter any free agents pre-30 were getting stupid contracts. Jason Heyward getting $184 mil despite a 112 OPS+ lifetime as he is entering his age 26 season this year. His WAR was 6+ the past 2 years but that was in big part due to defense (the first thing to go) and great baserunning. It has been shown often that investing in outfielders due to defense is a bad idea (Michael Bourn a great example of that with 2 teams sharing his $14 mil owed this year, his last really good year was 2012 at 29 when he became a free agent). A-Rod got that first massive contract due to being so young and a MVP free agent. Meanwhile Dickey won a Cy Young and his team didn't want to give him a 3 year deal at under $15 mil a year.

I don't particularly care what people on batters box say about the right way to win. I care about what baseball writers say (some of them anyway) and on what teams that are winning World Series actually do. Go on about your idea of winning coming from bucking the current trend and investing in old guys and trade away your prospects. Of course no team who has actually won a World Series recently has done this, but I don't expect Toronto to succeed at it where richer teams like the Yankees have failed at it. Even the rich teams now are hoarding their prospects which should say something. See Yankes fans ripping Cashman for not making deals like he used to.

I'm not saying there isn't a place for FA contracts or big resignings. But if you have a 140 million dollar budget you can't have 5 players (EE, Tulo, Martin, Jose, Donaldson) make up near 100 million. In fact if payroll doesn't go up they can't afford both of Jose and EE and perhaps not even one when you factor in what Happ and Estrada are making and that they still want to make future trades/signings. Perhaps if they get a discount they can resign one of them. But without a significant bump in payrolls they're not signing both,

But without a significant bump in payrolls they're not signing both

I'm expecting to see at least one of them - maybe both - playing for the Red Sox next year.

"how does it make a difference to a (beloved) rebuild either way?"


I don't view rebuilding in baseball the same way I do basketball. If the Jays were 'tanking', then yes, Martin would not be an issue if he continued declining because there would be no intention to improve short-term. However, I don't think the Jays need to do a 'tank', nor does that seem like Rogers M.O. I'd rather Martin be an asset that the Jays can trade off and get value for, even if they have to eat up some salary. In baseball, you can go for it and rebuild the farm system at the same time. Sacrificing one for the other is how AA got into this mess in the first place. He could have done both. Shapiro can do both. It's probably not realistic to do in 2017, unless they are out of it in 2016 and can turn Bautista/Edwin/etc. into young pieces at the deadline to help in 2017, but the goal is to make the transition time as short as possible. Having a $20M AAV sinkhole, if that's what Martin ends up becoming, certainly does not help. Even the Braves forced the Padres to take the corpse of Melvin Upton in the Kimbrel trade. It's not desirable to have those players on the team if they are not contributing. Again, too early to say for sure on Martin, but I'm just saying IF he continues in this trend.

To go to another point, I actually liked the Martin signing for precisely the reason you mentioned: it didn't cost anything except money. Give me Martin on a free agent contract that potentially looks bad in year 2 over giving up a ton of assets for Reyes, Dickey, Buehrle, etc, any day of the week. I give AA flack for a lot of things, but the Martin signing at least was the right concept. The problem has turned out to be the backloaded part and that Martin seems to be declining 1 or 1.5 years too soon (if his performance thus far is any indication).

Investing in older players makes sense if they are not "core pieces", but rather pieces to surround an existing core (preferably a younger one). It made sense for the Cubs to get Zobrist because he was a piece, not someone they needed to produce like a star to win. With Bautista and Edwin, it's not like the rest of the team is 20-something's who just need an added boost to win. Those two would need to continue being stars for the Jays to reap any sort of benefit, and as much as Bautista thinks he's an exception to aging, that's probably not a realistic thing to expect. The win curve plays a big part in how to invest in the team going forward. The Jays in 2017 are not in any position to keep doubling down on the old regime's formula.

You can't play three guys at DH (that's basically what Hanley Ramirez is now) even with Ortiz retiring, I can definitely see them signing one of them, but I don't see them signing both.

What would you do?

Re the bullpen, there are no clear answers. I suppose I'd ride Biagini in set up for a while and hope for another osuna. Failing that back to Storen for one last kick at the can.

If neither work, i think- and I hate this - you have to look seriously at dropping Sanchez back to a relief role and replacing him with Floyd. At some point they have to back him off starting and unless another short relief option emerges, they may have to do it sooner rather than later. They can't continue to throw away games in the late innings and expect to be playing for a spot in September.

"However, I don't think the Jays need to do a 'tank',"

wat?

you have assured us that there is zero young talent in the organization. what other choice is there?

That draft pick went to the Yankees who moved up a slot. They picked James Kaprielian, a RHP who is 22 in A+ with a 1.50 ERA in 18 IP (3 starts), 3 BB vs 22 SO at age 22. So a decent prospect right now, but of course factor in that Osuna is a year younger and has been the Jays closer for nearly a full season before going 'wow, what a super prospect'. Cleveland used the next pick to get Brady Aiken, a LHP who has yet to pitch professionally (he was the #1 overall pick for Houston earlier but didn't sign).

So yes, the Jays could've had a quality pitching prospect if they didn't sign Martin but they'd also have had #1 catcher Josh Thole or had to resign Navarro.

Top 5 Records in baseball:

Cubs

Lester (32) $25.7 x 6
Lackey (37) $16.0 x 2
Zobrist (35) $14.0 x 4
Montero (32): $14.0 x 2
Hammel (33): $10.0 x 2
Arrieta (30): $10.7 x 1
Fowler (30): $9.0 x 2

Orioles

Davis (30): $23.0 x 7
Jones (30): $14.3 x 3
Wieters (30): $15.8 x 1
Jimenez (32): $12.5 x 2
Hardy (33): $13.5 x 3
Gallardo (30): $11.7 x 3
O'Day (33): $7.8 x 4


Nationals

Scherzer (31): $30m x 7
Werth (37): $18m x 2
Zimmerman (31): $14m x 5
Murphy (31): $12.5m x 3
Papelbon (35): $11m x 1
Gonzalez (30): $9.4 x 3

Red Sox

Price (30): $31m x 7
Ramirez (32): $22m x 4
Ortiz (40): $16m x 1
Pedroia (32): $14.2 x 6
Uehara (41): $9.0 x 1
Buchholz (31): $8.2 x 2

Mariners

Cano (33): $24 x 8
Hernandez (30): $22 x 5
Cruz (35): $14.3 x 3
Iwakuma (35): $10.2 x 3
Lind (32): $8.0 x 1
Benoit (38): $8.0 x 1


and the Jays

Tulowitzki (31): $19 x 5
Martin (33): $16.4 x 4
Donaldson (30): $14.3 x 2
Bautista (35): $14 x 1
Estrada (32): $13m x 2
Happ (33): $12m x 3
Dickey (41): $12.0 x 1
Encarnacion (33): $10m x 1


Lookit all those moron teams investing in 30+ yr olds.

He never said that. There is a small amount of good talent on the team, most at the big league level. You know that too, you keep repeating the same five names over and over. He did say that if the team isn't in contention at the deadline they could explore trades to get players that can help in the next year or two. The Cubs for example a couple of years ago were a really bad team, but they traded Samardjia for Russell and did some other moves and now they could do a couple free agent signings to go with their bevy of young talent. SK has always proposed doing a reload. If he really proposed a tank solution the biggest haul would be for Donaldson, and no one has proposed that there.

"So yes, the Jays could've had a quality pitching prospect if they didn't sign Martin but they'd also have had #1 catcher Josh Thole or had to resign Navarro."

Well as long as we are playing the could have game. The jays could have needed none of those players and had an ace this season had they not traded for a certain 38 year old trick pitcher.

Sanchez AL SP Ranks

59ip (6th)
78era- (12th)
79fip- (9th)
81xfip- (5th)

Not sure moving Sanchez to the bullpen makes the team better.

"There is a small amount of good talent on the team"

heh.

There is a whole lot of difference between signing players for big contracts at their 29/30 age and signing guys who are 33 and 35. Also the point is not that EE and Joses current contracts are bad, but signing them to the 20 mil/year + long term deals they want would make that above comparison look much worse for the Jays. Also many of the contracts there for non Jays players are short term deals. That's how you go safe with signing old players.

Was in response to your post on young talent, so I was clearly referring to Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez, Travis and Pillar. I do agree with you in that there isn't much coming up from the minors anytime soon, especially non pitching. But if the Jays can't get back in contention a trade for major league ready prospects could work.

And even with the joke I think the team isn't as talented as you think it is. If this was 2011 then sure, but a core of this team has significantly regressed from the players they used to be. Look at the rWar numbers that were posted up thread. I'm glad you and others think they're all going to just rebound to their previous levels, but players do decline with age and you have to admit there is possibility that they don't recover.

The late innings bullpen has lost more games than Sanchez has even started.

Not my preference either as I was a big supporter of Sanchez starting. But unless they find a solution for innings 7 and 8, the Jays may have little choice.

"There is a whole lot of difference between signing players for big contracts at their 29/30 age and signing guys who are 33 and 35"

which Jays signed at 33 and 35?

"Also many of the contracts there for non Jays players are short term deals."

The Jays group there have the shortest contracts of the bunch.

Right now for the Jays and the bullpen I figure giving Biagini a lot of innings is a good idea until he shows he can't deal with it. No Cecil for the year is what the Jays have to assume now, so the pen is basically Osuna and friends. Girodo has been OK so far, Venditte is OK for bad games (ie: mop up work) and is going to bounce up and down a lot. Floyd is hard to know what to do with as he is good but has trouble when the pressure is on it seems (high leverage - 222/323/481, low leverage 129/209/226) but is better than pretty much any other option outside of Osuna or Biagini. Chavez should be back from his suspension soon but has been worse in high pressure (308/400/769 - so basically everyone looks like Barry Bonds on roids to him) but just 15 PA so not that much.

Tough spot for Gibbons. Your closer is 21, your best choice for setup is a rule 5 pick, your 2 expensive backup starters are having issues with pressure, your high priced backup closer is flopping, your steady 'old faithful' is now DL'ed for at least a month and probably longer then will need time to get back up to speed. Ick. No one in AAA is impressing outside of starter Wade LeBlanc (a LHP 1.64 ERA in AAA, spent last year in Japan, is 31). Danny Barnes in AA is having a 'WOW' year so far - 21 1/3 IP, 11 H, 2 ER (2 HR), 2 BB, 24 SO. Wil Browning also doing excellent (0.57 ERA 15 2/3 IP 6 H 1 R, 0 HR 6 BB 14 SO). Murphy Smith 0.42 ERA 21 2/3 IP 16 H 5 BB 30 SO. Must be fun for the manager in AA as that pen is sweet. I'd be shifting a couple to AAA at this point.

Also the point is not that EE and Joses current contracts are bad, but signing them to the 20 mil/year + long term deals they want would make that above comparison look much worse for the Jays.

I don't think I'm being hard on you Kasi when I point out that everyone knows this - the team, the fans on the Box, EE and Jose, Shapiro, AA, heck, my mom probably knows this. 

Jose and EE want more money and more years. Ownership wants less.  This is how it always works.  Please quit implying that negotiating stances reflect the contract that will eventually be signed - it's not advancing the conversation. 

Well as long as we are playing the could have game. The jays could have needed none of those players and had an ace this season had they not traded for a certain 38 year old trick pitcher.

The only one playing this game is you, and it's a boring game to play when you keep repeating the groupthink.  (Side note - why hasn't ANYONE talked about what a coup it was for AA to acquire Estrada for Lind?)  I'll answer my own question - you're cherry picking.  Fine, the Dickey trade was a huge loss.  And the Donaldson trade a huge win.  Why didn't we draft Mike Trout?  Chris Sale?  boring. 

BTW, If I hear about Yan Gomes again I'll vomit on myself.  And I'd like to point out, I was this biggest Yan Gomes fan on the box at the time of the trade - I have this thing for versatile guys who can catch.  Also, for anyone inclined to reference that deal again, please note that after his one killer year he's kinda sucked and/or gotten injured. 

Yeah, after a glorious year and a half out of nowhere, Gomes has turned right back into a pumpkin....but now he's an expensive pumpkin.

When you look at the Starters in April, they were 12-6 with 11 exceptional starts (not all wins) and 4 stinkers (all loses). In May, thus far, they are 7-5 with 12 exceptional starts (not all wins) and 5 stinkers (all loses).

When you look at the Relief in April, they were 0-8 with 7 saves. They stole 5 wins from the Jays with shoddy performances. In May, thus far, they are 4-5 with 5 saves. They've stolen just 2 wins from the Jays with shoddy performances.

When you look at the Hitters in April, they are 2-5 in one-run games and had failed to score more than three runs in a game 11 times. In May, thus far, they are 2-4 in one-run games and have failed to score more than three runs in a game 11 times.

The Starters are still pitching very well, the Bullpen is better, and the Offense is about the same. In April they went 11-14, while in May they are, thus far, 11-10 with 6 games to play. Previously, the Jays would win games despite Starters stinking, despite shoddy Bullpen performances, with less than the best offense. Not so much this year.

Storen being up for trade returns pennies on the $10 bill. Until he puts together at least a dozen consistent high pressure appearances, he won't gain enough value. This changed Offense might or might not do enough, until Travis returns, still too early to say. Unless he hits better, Goins' defense isn't enough to keep him up when Travis returns.

The next 12 games will be a good test of the changes and improvements the Jays have made, but Gibbons needs to trust his pitchers less.

Yeah, Gomes was a wow player in 2013 (131 OPS+ in 322 PA) and in 2014 he was also very good for 3 months (May 791 OPS, July & Aug in the 900's for OPS) but in 2015/16 he has hit 220/256/390 for a 70 OPS+ and Cleveland owes him big time for the next few years (they signed him quickly so he'd never get $10 mil in a single year from them except in 2021 at age 33 in an option year, seemed smart when you are tight on cash but instead it was very bad as they owe nearly $22 mil to him when instead he would've probably been released by now otherwise). Btw, yes, Thole hits worse but he is a knuckleball specialist thus as long as Dickey is playing he'll have a job.

"The only one playing this game is you, and it's a boring game to play when you keep repeating the groupthink. (Side note - why hasn't ANYONE talked about what a coup it was for AA to acquire Estrada for Lind?) I'll answer my own question - you're cherry picking. Fine, the Dickey trade was a huge loss. And the Donaldson trade a huge win. Why didn't we draft Mike Trout? Chris Sale? boring. "

Huh? I don't even .. what?

I don't think I said a single thing about Yan fucking Gomes. The hell? Very confused.

"you have assured us that there is zero young talent in the organization. what other choice is there?"


First off, the farm system ranking near the bottom of the league right now doesn't mean the entire organization is devoid of talent. They just don't have talent that is anywhere near ready, and yes, that's meaningful if you want to sustain some level of winning. At the big league level, there obviously is talent (Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Osuna, Sanchez), just not enough to get by once Bautista, Edwin, etc, leave.

Secondly, again, this is not basketball. Draft picks don't make an impact for years (assuming they do at all). If you really want to "tank", then you trade Donaldson for as much young talent as possible, and don't stop there (ex. why keep Stroman around if he'll only be a free agent when the tanking turns into big league success?). Of course, no one has suggested a scorched earth rebuild except you because you think the opposite of AA's philosophy is losing on purpose, which is ridiculous. The Jays can't tank for Andrew Wiggins.

I've said many, many times, the team needs to start getting younger, focus on developing talent internally, avoiding long-term contracts to players in their 30's, etc. They can do that, try to win, and focus on the farm all at the same time. Maybe not in 2017 (barring some luck) but certainly going forward.

While you want instant gratification with big names and bloated contracts followed by another long playoff drought because of that plan's short shelf life, others here want sustained success.

It's remarkable that the Jays are already eight and seven games back (of Baltimore and Boston, respectively) in the loss column.

This means that even in the unlikely scenario that Baltimore stumbles badly and goes 60-60 in its remaining 120 games and finishes 86-76 (and Boston also plays roughly .500 ball), the Jays will have to go 65-51 (.560) to finish 87-75.

Even this early, it doesn't look good with the two leaders (one of which is rich in cash and prospect resources for deadline trades) playing .615-.620 ball and the Jays mired in last place.

The Jays certainly have the talent to climb back in the race, but they've dug themselves a deep hole in the early going.

You'd think that MLB would schedule a day game here during Victoria Day. Seems a little tone deaf on their part. On the other hand, I for one am glad the Jays aren't playing today. A few of these guys need a day off, Martin especially. He'll get two with Dickey pitching on Tuesday.

I don't think I said a single thing about Yan fucking Gomes. The hell? Very confused.

King Ryan, the Yan Gomes comment was directed generally, not at you, sorry to be unclear.  It is cherry picking to only talk about the bad trades and not the good, is my point, and Yan Gomes seems to be the boardwide fave outside of Dickey / Thor. 

Agreed that there should be a Jays game on today - tone deaf indeed. 

I have felt that the Jays have not been sharp in any aspect of the game this season. There is a new report out that puts the Jays almost at the bottom of the errors, plays not made, passed balls, list.

The report acknowledges that passed balls from Dickey/Thole might make the Jays look worse but those passed balls still cost the Jays bases and sometimes runs. Link

It is not cherry picking to say that trading away young players for an old pitcher has turned out to be not a good move. As far as I know, that is the only trade the Jays have made that was like that. Donaldson, Estrada were in their primes and yes they were great trades but have nothing to do with my post. Nor does Yan Gomes about whom you are so sick of hearing that you randomly brought him up when nobody was talking about him.

I was not vociferously against the Dickey trade when it occurred but in hindsight, its critics were 100% correct and there's nothing wrong with acknowledging that without having to invoke wails of "groupthink" and random name drops of Mike Trout and Chris Sale, who have nothing whatsoever to do with anything. We thought that age didn't matter if you're a knuckleball pitcher. We were wrong. It is a lesson learned, hopefully.

In a sort-of-interesting-and-maybe-related post: MLBTR put up a list of "players who have hurt their free agency prospects". I guess due to the nature of the beast, many of them are early 30s players. Made me wonder why so many early 30s players are suddenly in decline this year - the new focus on strong bullpens making it hard to rack up easy hits in "garbage time" because there are less blowouts? Or did the drug testing get better and so a lot of players had to back off steroids in the off-season and are now seeing the effects? And Cola didn't get the memo because he wasn't connected in the right ways (all those years playing indy ball)? Others, like Ortiz and Beltran are still hitting on cue, but it seems a LOT of established veterans are suffering unexpected drastic dropoffs.

Or maybe it's just a weather/El Nino thing? Or older players are too aware of the world around them and having a hard time with Donald vs. Hillary and getting distracted? :-)

I agree that Darwin/Travis will hopefully give Goins a rest for a while as a backup player (or back to AAA) soon.

In the: out of left field, and maybe out of the left ward: if we call up Montero and Paredes being able to cover 3rd, between Donaldson originally being a catcher, Montero being a catcher in the past and Thole on the bench, maybe we can treat the catcher's spot like the pitcher's spot in the NL. Pinch-hit for C whenever it matters, maybe even 2 or 3 times in a game.. Ok, ok.. I'll see myself out :-)

One more comment I wanted to make: my thoughts on "how to win" as far as prospects, pitching vs. hitting, young vs. old, etc.. While always changing, I've always felt at some level that just like various other contest (chess, fencing, etc), there are "offensive" strategies and "defensive" counter-strategies, and you need to pick the appropriate one for your team, depending on the circumstances. It's really hard to "do what everyone else is doing", but do it better than everyone else, without spending more $$ than everyone else. I guess it's a bit of a moneyball idea - identify weaknesses/inefficiencies in the current market to get the best bang-for-your-buck.

For example (not saying these are 100% guaranteed counter strategies or anything, just examples):
Problem: not many good starters available, either in the draft or as free agents:
a) build a killer bullpen to reduce load on rotation
b) sign a lot of sluggers and try to win with offense

Problem: offense on the decline, lots of good pitching
a) sign good pitchers when young, hoping to get a discount because there's more competition
b) sign speedy players to ramp up "small ball" team which seems to do better in low-offense contexts

Problem: everyone's building a killer bullpen, so it's hard to come back late.
a) play super-aggressive early to get a lead and keep the bullpen off the field
b) join everyone else and build a super-pen
c) sign lots of high-obp players who can mitigate a good relief pitcher

I'm annoyed that the Jays aren't playing today.

Should Biagini get a shot at setting up?

Without PED's, older players are likely going to age a lot worse than they did in the past. It's impossible to predict at what age the decline will happen, as every player is different, but the days of guys still being top level performers into their late-30's (with a few exceptions) is likely a thing of the past.

That's why the Donaldson situation will be interesting. He'll be a free agent at age 33, and a contract length of 5 years will take him through age 37. The Jays are likely going to get his best years (2016-18) regardless, but then have to decide how much they are willing to pay/risk on his declining years.

My thing with older players is pay more for less years, if possible. You mitigate a lot of risk that way. It's even more important now with aging curves not being what they used to be.

Yan Gomes gets mentioned in every third thread by a poster bemoaning AA's profligacy with trading away prospects.   Kind of like Thor.  Who I believe you brought up randomly when nobody was talking about him. 

Cherry picking is when you randomly bring up a detail - like the Dickey trade - with the implication that it implies poor asset management.  Trout and Sale could have been ours if we had drafted better.  Bringing those names up is to illustrate the ridiculously arbitrary nature of your bringing up the Dickey trade - apropos of nothing. 

Estrada was not in his prime - he discovered his prime here.  Many posters wanted to non-tender him.

I don't see what lesson is to be learned from the Dickey trade - he's a knuckler.  There just isn't enough info to 'learn' something from this - not that this stops the legions from pointing out the foolishness of trading young players for old - this would be the groupthink I'm describing.  When many repeat a subjective opinion as objective - groupthink.  If it's objectively wrong to do this, than gosh, two thirds of the posters on this site should be general managers, as they are clearly more informed that than those currently running big league teams. 

Looking back at your post, I see you refered to the Dickey trade with 'as long as we are playing the could have game' so in retrospect, I shouldn't have been so hard on your initial post - for that I apologize - it's the discourse in general, not you or your posts, that get to me.  I'm pretty certain I have accurately described the tenor of much of the discourse around here about team building. 

 

Somebody said that if we didn't sign Martin we'd be stuck with Thole. I just pointed out that if we hadn't made that trade, we wouldn't have even had Thole, we'd have d'Arnaud. I have made no points on any other trades or team building in general, but I see that I've touched some kind of nerve so I'm just going to drop it.

Team Traded Kids, Update

(fWAR only)

Hitters

1. 3B Lawrie (26): 2212pa, 102wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
2. C Gomes (28): 1471pa, 100wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
3. DH D'Arnaud (27): 853pa, 104wrc+, 2.5war/650pa
4. 1B Wallace (29): 1287pa, 100wrc+, -0.2war/650pa
5. LF Snider (28): 1971pa, 93wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
6. RF Gose (25): 1252pa, 82wrc+, 1.1war/650pa
7. SS Hechavarria (27): 1933pa, 72wrc+, 0.3war/650pa
8. 2B Pastornicky (26): 268pa, 68wrc+, -3.4war/650pa
9. CF Marisnick (25): 772pa, 62wrc+, 1.5war/650pa

UT Thames (29); 684pa, 96wrc+, -0.1war/650pa
OF Becerra (21): A+ 147wrc+, A 118wrc+, Rk+ 133wrc+
IF Barreto (20): AA 74wrc+, A+ 122wrc+, A- 141wrc+
IF Lugo (21): A+ 85wrc+, A 91wrc+, A- 74wrc+
C Perez (25): 382pa, 77wrc+, 2.2war/650pa


Good and/or still interesting Pitchers

SP Syndergaard (23): 33gs, 77era-, 5.4war/32gs
SP Desclafani (26): 36gs, 113era-, 2.8war/32gs
SP Norris (23): 14gs, 96era-, 1.1war/32gs --- AAA 3.22fip
SP Musgrove (23): AAA 3.26fip, AA 3.32fip, A+ 2.08fip
SP Hoffman (23): AAA 4.15fip, AA 3.42fip, A+ 3.70fip

RP Dyson (28): 150.0ip, 79era-, 0.6war/65ip
RP Castro (21): 25.2ip, 107era-, 0.0war/65ip, AAA 5.02fip
RP Wells (20): A 3.98fip, A- 2.66fip, Rk+ 4.24fip
RP DeJong* (22): AA 4.40fip, A+ 4.22fip
RP Labourt* (22): A+ 3.97fip, A 7.7fipi, A- 3.41fip
RP Tinoco* (21): A+ 6.25fip, A 2.86fip, Rk+ 4.04fip
RP Tirado* (21): A+ 4.25fip, A 5.59fip

* - supergenerous listing


Toast and/or just not good:

SP Alvarez (26): 92gs, 96era-, 1.9war/32gs
SP Graveman (25): 29gs, 113era-, 0.1war/32gs
SP Nicolino (24): 17gs, 104era-, -0.2war/32gs, AAA 4.56fip
SP Boyd (25): 12gs, 185era-, -1.9war/32gs, AAA 3.37fip
SP Nolin (26): 7gs, 175era-, -0.9war/32gs, AAA 4.68fip

RP Collins (26): 211.0ip, 87era-, 0.3war/65ip
RP Rzepczynski (30): 236.2ip, 97era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Rollins (26): 25.0ip, 196era-, -0.3war/65ip
RP Cordero (24): AA 3.42fip, A+ 3.24fip
RP Comer (23): A+ 4.41fip, A 3.66fip
RP Stewart (29): 103.0ip, 161era-, -0.3war/65ip
RP Magnusson (30): 14.2ip, 155era-, -0.4war/65ip
RP Wojciechowski (27): 16.1ip 178era-, 0.8war/65ip
RP Molina (27): AAA 8.41fip

Martin had nothing to do with the Dickey trade. He was signed over a year later so no we wouldn't have Mr. DL as the catcher.

That's a lot of kids traded with only one really painful loss Ugly.  I do think Barreto will be missed, but we got an MVP out of that deal.  Dyson still bugs me because why?  That was just poor roster management.  And I suppose a couple of the remaining prospects might turn into something, but your list certainly adds perspective.

ummm...couldn't you just easily use all this data to say the last FO did a poor job of drafting and we're lucky to have traded our talent away?

Anyway, is anyone else getting tired of constant arguments about whether the last FO was good, bad or average? A careful "selection" of facts and data can easily "prove" any of the three, as innumerous posts have revealed.

We are where we are, AA is gone, and now the question is how the hell do we start to win...consistently.

you could ... or you could argue we traded the right talent away, at a premium, as prospects are currently overvalued.  I prefer the latter argument based on the evidence above, but I know that I am in the minority.

But why do people only weigh in on the 'this debate is tiresome' issue after a proponent or two of the previous FO weighs in?  Call out people on both sides of the issue.  One side is considered more accurate around here, and therefore gets a lot more leeway. 

No, the last FO's draft record was quite good.

They just managed to trade the right guys with one glaring exception.

It certainly does add perspective. Right now, in only the next year, Toronto would be unable to unload straight up the two sucker contracts that Anthopoulos bought into, for a single player on that list. Nor could they even unload them for Danny Valencia, who was simply given away, as part of the "strategy" I assume. Let alone get back the giveaways for rental pitching. Getting rid of Martin alone is going to cost a fortune.

get rid of them for what purpose?

To free up salary space obviously. In Martin's case to replace him with a major league catcher.

Easier said than done. Martin is the only major league catcher the Jays have had for the past decade.

Nor could they even unload them for Danny Valencia, who was simply given away, as part of the "strategy" I assume.
This is the sort of argument that drives me nuts.  You actually think the A's wouldn't trade Danny Valencia straight up for TT?

Danny Valencia - acquired by AA for nothing, turned into a valuable player during the AA FO, is now considered a major loss?  To argue this implies a fundamental lack of understanding of how MLB contracts or  the 40 man roster work. 

Are Sabean and the SFG FO to be called morons because they let us draft Biagini?  

We got Bautista from Pittsbugh on this kind of deal - aren't the Pirates considered a model of conservative prospect development? 

If the Valencia DFA was such a massive error, please refer us to the posts you made on the topic without the benefit of hindsight.

I think logic dictates that Martin is likely injured.  He had a really crappy Spring, he's had a really crappy first 1/4 of the season at the plate (although his work with the starters seems to be fantastic.)  But to write him off given his track record just seems silly. I mean it's possible his skill level just jumped out of a plane with no parachute, went for a barrel ride down Niagara Falls, fell out of the sky like a Led Zeppelin -- but not too darn likely.  Stay tuned people. Also, try to keep it together in the meantime. 

But why do people only weigh in on the 'this debate is tiresome' issue after a proponent or two of the previous FO weighs in? Call out people on both sides of the issue. One side is considered more accurate around here, and therefore gets a lot more leeway.

Ummm..I actually called out people on three sides of the issue- " good, bad or average. ". The timing if the post was coincidental. Time to move on.

I think logic dictates that Martin is likely injured. He had a really crappy Spring, he's had a really crappy first 1/4 of the season at the plate (although his work with the starters seems to be fantastic.) But to write him off given his track record just seems silly. I mean it's possible his skill level just jumped out of a plane with no parachute, went for a barrel ride down Niagara Falls, fell out of the sky like a Led Zeppelin -- but not too darn likely. Stay tuned people. Also, try to keep it together in the meantime.

Well he was injured with that neck strain, which officially cost him games in late April. Apparently It was nagging him on and off leading up to that and (as anybody who plays rotisserie baseball will tell you) suspicion is that it's still a factor. If you take a sample size of one-quarter season, that'll have a big impact on his numbers. I agree with you that even if you assume a slight decline at age 33, he's closer to the 750 OPS hitter he's been in his career; easily a tradeable commodity, especially in a cap-free league.

I think the larger issue is that the team entered the season without a viable backup. Even Wilner, arguably the team's biggest homer, proclaimed that there was no way Thole would go into 2016 as the Jays primary backup ... yet that's exactly what happened, presumably due to budgetary constraints.

Most of Shapiro's cheapo moves have worked out wonderfully - Floyd probably being the best example. This one, less so.

"It certainly does add perspective. Right now, in only the next year, Toronto would be unable to unload straight up the two sucker contracts that Anthopoulos bought into, for a single player on that list. Nor could they even unload them for Danny Valencia, who was simply given away, as part of the "strategy" I assume. Let alone get back the giveaways for rental pitching. Getting rid of Martin alone is going to cost a fortune."

My god. Can we please let the guy suck for... let's say four months before we start assuming he's Vernon Wells or Ryan Howard?

Speaking of Vernon Wells, AA did pretty well extracting value for him after his "dead cat bounce" 2010 season.

I was thinking of Martin this afternoon, and like electric carrot I came to the conclusion that he must be injured. There's just no way I can see an established hitter falling off to nothing overnight like that.

I have to assume the Jays know it and, since the only other option is Thole, they've decided they'd rather play an injured Russell.

What is weird is Thole is having a bad year for himself (158/238/237 33 OPS+) but Martin is even worse (172/237/180 19 OPS+). Meanwhile in AAA AJ Jimenez is blowing his big chance by hitting just 218/287/346 in 87 PA. The best minor league catchers batting line is probably Michael De La Cruz (23 A+) 222/250/519 or Danny Jansen (21 A+) 212/379/231. Ugh. I think the Jays management team has a challenge on their hands - find a catcher who can have a 700 OPS ideally 300/400 OBP/Slg area while still being able to be a solid receiver.

Yesterday, I went through Baseball Reference's trade log for the Jays and looked up all of the meaningful trades that AA made. I counted 22. Using my highly subjective trade evaluation system, I rate them thusly:

Very Good: 4

• Vernon Wells for whoever
• Lind for Estrada
• Lawrie and etc. for Donaldson
• Anthony Gose for Devon Travis

Good: 8

• Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez II and spare parts
• Marcum for Lawrie
• Various for Colby Rasmus
• Various to Houston for J.A. Happ
• Eric Thames for Delabar
• Hendriks and Kratz for Valencia
• Happ for Saunders
• Boyd/Norris/Labourt for David Price

Even: 4

• Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose
• Travis Snider for Brad Lincoln
• the big Marlins trade (which turned out to be Escobar/Hechavarria/Alvarez for Buehrle/Reyes)
• Hoffman/Reyes/etc. for Tulo/Hawkins (even for now, as it's too early to tell)

Bad: 4

• Brandon League for Brandon Morrow
• Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco (ranked as Bad, not Very Bad, because Napoli was part of the haul for Wells)
• John Farrell for Mike Aviles (Bad because the Jays should have just paid Farrell to sit at home and rot rather than letting him go to his Dream Job [tm])
• Aviles and Gomes for Esmil Rogers

Very Bad: 2

• Halladay for d'Arnaud/Drabek/Wallace
• Dickey for Syndergaard/d'Arnaud/Becerra (Dickey has thrown over 700 innings for the Jays, but Thor has become the Norse God Of Pitching, and Becerra looks promising in the low minors)

I may be biased, but on the whole I'd say that AA's trading record was quite good.

I also want to give a shout-out to the 2010 draft, which yielded Sanchez, Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Sam Dyson (!!), Sean Nolin, and Dalton Pompey. That's a pretty good haul. It would have been even better if Deck McGuire had not been a bust.

"To free up salary space obviously. In Martin's case to replace him with a major league catcher."

To free up salary space for who?

Is there someone better than the 2nd best catcher in baseball in each of the last 2 years that you're eager to spend on?

Gotta love the Pirates. They extract maximum value from Martin during his peak catching years, at a serious discount, then replace him with Cervelli, another cheap catcher who has been almost as good as Martin was for them.

And/or they just signed a poor defensive catcher for $11m/yr until age 33, after his first and only season as an mlb starter, which came with a .359babip.

Good list. I'd add Wallace for Gose to the good trades myself. Wallace was looking more and more like a pumpkin at that point, and Gose at least had some potential. Enough that we were eventually able to flip him for Travis.

If I were a great dictator I would punish people for draft revisionism. Specifically, this type that brings up missing on one specific guy as a failure on the part of a GM. Yeah, we missed Sale to the brilliant Chicago White Sox GM in 2010. The brilliant White Sox GM also missed on Mike Trout in 2009, drafting a guy named Jared Mitchell at #23 (Trout was #25). Need I go on? No, because it's boring. We all know how that story ends (hint: every single GM misses on a great player at some point).

I think the general rule should be that is at least 5 teams made the same "mistake", then it isn't a mistake. 12 teams passed on Chris Sale, 23 on Trout, so those aren't mistakes. If we had passed on Bryce Harper that would be another story. Draftin' ain't easy... most of the time.

What's worrisome about Martin is that his BB and K rates (to say nothing of his ISO, of course) are way off his career norms and that his BABIP this year can't be blamed since it is no different than last year's.

While he could well be playing through an injury, there is a history of players at certain positions, like 2B and catcher, who have fallen off cliffs in their early 30s rather than deteriorate on a nice smooth downward slope.

Of course we are all hopeful that the sheer magnitude of Martin's drop-off from last year signifies an injury. I think someone mentioned in some thread that he started a decline in 2015's second half, but this is not so (796/755 OPS splits).

If you drill down to the pitch-level, the most worrisome thing is the combination of a loss of power and an increased swing and miss rate on pitches in the zone.  He's missing altogether about a quarter of the time, almost exactly double his career rate (and his rate in the previous 3 years).  It is not a question of luck, at all.

Martin probably needs a DL stint.  He is doing yeoman's work defensively but the club does need to take a longer view.  It is unfortunate because the one place the club was really short on was behind the plate. 

Martin has been pretty streaky in his career, though.

This may or may not be the worst stretch of his carer, but he even had a near 100pa stretch around August in last year's great season with a 21wrc+.

Martin has been pretty streaky in his career, though.

Let's hope this is a streak. His slash line (172/237/180, 33% K rate) is not far removed from the average NL pitcher (139/168/180, 37%). It's just too bad that Martin's backup also hits like a pitcher.

What makes League for Morrow a bad trade?

League was more successful. Morrow had all the ability in the world, but was only able to harness it for part of 2012 before starting what appears to be an endless run of injuries.

But it's not a classification I'm married to. You could call that trade even, and I wouldn't argue with you.

A mitigating factor for Napoli for Francisco was the plan to offer Francisco arbitration and get a draft pick which was used on Matt Smoral who sadly has yet to get past A+ and needs a strike zone that is 10' x 10' to be effective (7.6 BB/9 so far in 93 2/3 IP career vs 11.3 SO/9)

A mitigating factor for Napoli for Francisco was the plan to offer Francisco arbitration

And to open up a spot for catcher-of-the-future JP Arencibia. (This is not snark.)

Like many, I was surprised by this trade. It hurt all the more when Napoli immediately put up a 4-WAR season and Francisco, er, didn't.