What would be funny is if Elvis Andrus hits a home run and does a bat flip.

Not familiar with Griffin, so I looked him up.

Late bloomer right handed pitcher who came back from TJ surgery last year.
Fastball still sitting at 88mph. Uses the curve a lot. A very good pitch.
Also mixes cutters, changeups (especially to lefties) and sliders, but nothing great there.
A flyball pitcher that usually gives too many homeruns. That could work at the dome.

maybe andrus will field a ball and do a glove flip.

That was the nicest double play I've seen in quite a while.  Really crisp and it had to be.

This offense is pathetic. They need more than Donaldson, Saunders playing well and decent performances from Jose and Pillar to do something. It really needs to start with EE and Tulo.

Tulo's turned the corner alright. Unfortunately, he seems to have u-turned it.

A relief pitcher, the bases loaded? Somebody hold me.

squib hit. passed ball. walk the #9 hitter. 0-2 single.

this is so 2016.

tag beat the run.

(i hope, or this lead is insurmountable)

oh that can't count.

That's really, really bad baserunning. Ain't it great when the other guys screw up?

such a massive play by pillar. his fielding may actually be underrated as crazy as that sounds.

we better win now.

Solid start by Dickey. Aren't we all glad the Jays picked up his option? :)

whatever we do, never take goins out of the lineup.

No pinch-runner?

No pinch runner?

And I figure it's because it was Smoak at first base is why Goins wasn't bunting. Too easy to get the lead runner at second. It's the short bench, as usual.

Gibbons usually likes to wait until the guy gets to second base before running for him anyway - otherwise if the next batter hits a 6-4 grounder, you lose two guys for nothing (whoever pinch runs won't be the new first baseman.)

hilarious.

Looks like Chavez is next in line for high-leverage bullpen work.

Just let Floyd pitch the top of the ninth too, now.

Pillar looking over the fence at Mazara's homer was a great image.

Let's win this.

this is where the season turns around, right?

ee and tulo, we need you now.

EE missed his pitch.

Boy, back to little league for baserunning clinic all the way around.

Can Tulo handle the pressure?

come on herowitzki

this season is a dick

Not a very authoritative drive from Tulo, alas. Saunders was out by a mile.

Just cannot get the big hit.

Jays are kinda depressing to watch these days. That is all.

Actually that play at the plate was closer than I thought.

It always seems to be "not quite" with Tulo.

He's a tease. He'll get that home run and make us think he's turned around, only to go on his next 3 game bender.

A glimmer.

Tolleson can be beat.

Pinch-run in the 9th down a run but not in the 7th in a tie game?  Weird.

A reverse Samson for Martin?

2-7 in one run games....

Wake me when we get to 102 wins.

At this rate you'll be sleeping until next May, greenfrog.

Dickey pitched well, both HR from Texas didn't look like HR to me when leaving the bat, more moderate-to-deep fly balls, but both kept on carrying.

The tagout at 2nd with no run scoring was really nice. And Saunders did a good job of almost being safe at home on a throw that beat him by a mile. Mazara was showing off a good arm late in that game.

None of the Jays regulars rate to be under 700 OPS, only Goins and Thole as backups, but 6 of the following 7 players play most games and are under 700 OPS, many by a lot:

172 / 291 / 356 = 647 Tulo
143 / 214 / 159 = 373 Martin
189 / 375 / 216 = 591 Smoak
240 / 287 / 380 = 667 EE
169 / 210 / 247 = 457 Goins
271 / 307 / 375 = 682 Pillar
185 / 241 / 296 = 537 Thole

For perspective:
196 / 275 / 290 = 565 Average of the above 7 (straight average, assuming equal weight)
215 / 245 / 262 = 507 Mendoza career line

2/3 of the team is slightly above the infamous Mendoza!

Donaldson, Saunders, and Bautista all have OPS over 900, with Donaldson's SLG of 667 as good or better than 6 of the 7 above players total OPS.

I mean Pillar probably only expect to be a bit better than that, and Goins and Thole probably never get good, even if a fair bit better than that, but that is still an incredibly large effect. It is almost like the whole team switched hitting coaches or performance coaches or stopped sleeping in or something and have together forgotten how to hit.

Goins now has a -0.6 WAR and 13 wRC+ (.435 OPS). This offensive performance is right in line with how he was hitting in 2014 as well. Gibbons being "loyal" is wearing thin. Barney is clearly the better player historically and better player today. At least with Goins having options, the team might actually demote him when Travis gets back. In the mean time he's apparently going to start full-time regardless of performance, which is terrible.

A month long offensive slump has been brutal to watch. I knew the offense would regress from last season, but this is pretty extreme.

I'd have to guess the Gibbon's leash is getting rather short. At least I hope it is.

The vaunted offense is currently not so vaunted. In fact, it is downright middlin'.

AL 3.96, Toronto 3.93

Yeah I'm tired of him too, although I don't think Wedge would be much better. Wish we still had Cash though. As for offense even though players are getting older it shouldn't hit decline this fast. Have to think there is a bounce back coming.

Goins now has a -0.6 WAR and 13 wRC+ (.435 OPS). This offensive performance is right in line with how he was hitting in 2014 as well. Gibbons being "loyal" is wearing thin. Barney is clearly the better player historically and better player today.

During the period 2013-16, Barney has hit .223/.281/.327 with an OPS+ of 68.  During the same period, Ryan Goins has hit .226/.273/.320 with an OPS+ of 65.  They both have considerable platoon splits over their careers.  If you use the average of DRS and UZR for the same period, both are very good defenders with Goins slightly better.  A platoon seems reasonable to me, despite Goins' early season struggles. 

The bench and bullpen allocations on this club seem out of whack.  It's been hard for Gibbons to find a pinch-hitter for Goins or Thole late in the game or a pinch-runner for Smoak or Thole because of a short bench.  The starters are throwing 6.3 innings per game, the most in the majors, as Gibbons has gone a long way with them but the bullpen has been ineffective despite being 7 (and sometimes 8) long.  Ryan Tepera has thrown 1 inning in his 6 days since his recall.   Joe Biagini hasn't thrown at all since Tepera arrived.  If one is going to devote the roster spots to depth bullpen, one would have thought that the Manager would have a somewhat quicker hook. 

I don't know if the new regime would hire their own guy to take over a situation they inherited. More likely they'd fire Gibbons and go with a placeholder for the rest of the season (DeMarlo Hale?), IMO. Then if/when they have to rebuild/retool/whatever after 2016, they can hire their own guy at that point. Just a guess. I'm not sure firing Gibbons would accomplish much, but he was on borrowed time the moment AA left.

I want this to be a boom or bust season for the Jays. Either go on a run and make the playoffs (preferable) or fall way behind. While the latter would be painful to sit through, at least they have a ton of trade chips they can turn into talent at the deadline (Bautista, EE, Cecil, Dickey, Saunders, Storen, etc). The worst thing the Jays can do is hover around .500 all season, but that would be a very Blue Jays thing to do.

Barney's been a better than replacement level player at absolute worst while having seasons of 1.6, 2.4, and 1.2 WAR's in his career. He and Goins are very similar players, but other than a huge spike in BB% in the 2nd half of 2015 that lead to much better performance, Goins has been anywhere from replacement to well below replacement in his career. We are talking about two bench players but one is really bad while the other can probably hold his weight until a better option (Travis) comes back. I held a little bit of hope that Goins' 2nd half of 2015 was a tiny bit sustainable, but that has vanished quickly. I think Barney even against RHP can't be any worse at this point.

Barney's been a better than replacement level player at absolute worst

I don't think you can overlook age. Barney was last good at age 26, 4 years ago. Goins was last good at age 27, one year ago.

Sure, Goins could well be turning back into a pumpkin. But it's hard to argue for Barney, vs RHP, in place of Goins at this point in their careers.

fWAR uses UZR which prefers Barney to Goins.  bWAR uses DRS which prefers Goins to Barney.  According to bWAR, Goins is a 4.0 WAR player over his career 827 PAs including 2016, thanks to Mazeroski-quality defence.  Personally, I think you are better to use an average of the UZR and DRS figures.  If you do, a Barney/Goins platoon should net league average or better overall performance (which isn't bad at all given that the best option is recovering from injury). 

players like barney and goins should be battling for playing time, as we try to take advantage of hot streaks.

there's really no excuse to keep trotting a player like goins out there everyday when he's struggling so bad.

I actually don't mind a strict platoon with Goins/Barney, or going with the hot hand, as long as it is strict. As far as I'm concerned, Gibbons should have at least played Barney more this month since he's been hitting.

"If one is going to devote the roster spots to depth bullpen, one would have thought that the Manager would have a somewhat quicker hook."

He would, if he trusted any of them to get him some outs. RA Dickey's last 2 starts would look a lot better if the bullpen would be providing the manager the luxury of yanking him after 6 solid innings.

I wish the Jays would have made Storen the closer, so that Osuna wouldn't waste away on the bench every night in tight games, being held back for a save opportunity.

I know this is basically heresy in today's game, but I continue to find the 7 man bullpen ludicrous, especially when the Jays starters are rolling like they are and Buffalo is a quick Uber away. It was ridiculous seeing Gibbons have to waste 2 players in a tie game in the 7th inning just to get a competent hitter to replace Thole.

I know this is basically heresy in today's game, but I continue to find the 7 man bullpen ludicrous, especially when the Jays starters are rolling like they are and Buffalo is a quick Uber away. It was ridiculous seeing Gibbons have to waste 2 players in a tie game in the 7th inning just to get a competent hitter to replace Thole.

Sure.  It's also the case that the club has two pitchers, Chavez and Floyd, who are possible replacement starters and are well-suited to throwing 2 innings or more at a time.  Why not run with a 6 man pen?

On a positive note, Justin Smoak appears to have emerged from the fog that surrounded half the Jays' lineup for most of the young season.  He is now hitting the ball (huzzah!) and hitting it hard often enough (double huzzah!).  He can get cold again (and he's been disappointing in the field), but it is nice to have another live bat.

"....Gibbons should have at least played Barney more this month since he's been hitting...."

Barney is getting the start at 2B tonight, while Goins is sitting.  Gibby does tend to go with the hot hand, to some extent, although he clearly also likes the defence that Goins brings.

"....It was ridiculous seeing Gibbons have to waste 2 players in a tie game in the 7th inning just to get a competent hitter to replace Thole...."

Yes, but much of the problem is simply due to the lack of "competent hitters" anywhere on the team right now, including the bench and the high minors.  Only three or four regulars are hitting competently.  There isn't much available on the bench either, and I don't think the problem is solved by expanding the bench to add a hitter from Buffalo.  (Pompey has injury issues; Montero is intriguing but has hit poorly in the majors for the past couple of seasons; Dominguez was one of the top Buffalo hitters but hasn't looked particularly good since his promotion.)

One example of the problem was Saunders trying to score on a short fly by Tulo in the 8th inning -- something he might not have tried to do if he had any confidence that the Jays would drive him home with an actual hit, rather than a short fly.  Another example: Martin is struggling so badly (and is hampered by the neck issue) so Gibbons didn't use him to pinch-hit for Thole.  He used Carrera instead, which meant that Carrera was unavailable to pinch-run for Saunders, which might have cost them a run. 

The bottom line is that the Jays need to get a lot more production from most of the lineup: Encarnacion, Martin, Tulo and Smoak especially.  Until that happens, the lack of bench production is the least of their problems.

I find it hard to get worked up about Barney v. Goins. Somehow I think the team has much deeper problems. This morning I was wondering whether it would be worth trading our bad contracts for Pablo Sandoval and saving about 100 million in the process. That is not a happy thought.

I feel bad for Gibbons today. I've not thought him a particularly good manager, but at this point I don't see the problem as his management so much as it is this team being one that's highly overbilled.

Somehow I think the team has much deeper problems.

Yep, it's easy to get sidetracked by complaining about the little things that aren't going right when, in fact, what's killing the team most are all the big things that aren't going right.

Well, they are again underperforming their Pythagorean again with the lack of offence late being an important part.  Bench strength has something to do with it.  If they had started off the season 14-13 with the everyday lineup and pitching staff performing as they have been, it would be more of a routine slow start. 

BBRef has pictures of the "top 12 WAR" players for each team on its page.  It is strange to see both Bautista and Encarnacion missing from the shots.  It is stranger still to see Ezequiel Carrera's picture.

"I find it hard to get worked up about Barney v. Goins. Somehow I think the team has much deeper problems. This morning I was wondering whether it would be worth trading our bad contracts for Pablo Sandoval and saving about 100 million in the process. That is not a happy thought."


Oh, Goins vs. Barney isn't a major issue at all. It's an issue, but only because Travis is hurt, so we're left debating which bench player should be playing more. The main issues on this team are much bigger. Some of them should be correctable, but some are potentially a bit scarier.

If they don't turn it around by June, then they really have to consider a quick retool for 2017. Still too early to start thinking of that, but it's a possibility that should be considered.

but the big things are mostly going right.

the starting pitchers have been great, the top of the order has been great, the closer has been great.

BBRef has pictures of the "top 12 WAR" players for each team on its page.

Lots of dollars without faces: Martin, Dickey, Bautista, Encarnacion, Storen. (But nothing like Boston: Price, Sandoval, Ramirez, Castillo, Porcello, Buchholz, Kimbrel, Uehara. All faceless, despite being in first place.)

The Bautista thing will eventually sort itself out. The -0.8 defensive WAR seems awfully harsh as it would suggest about 4-5 wins frittered away on defense over an entire season. Even Greg Luzinski wasn't that bad.

but the big things are mostly going right.

When a team that needed to score 5.5 runs per game to win their division suddenly finds themselves scoring 3.9 runs per game, you've got some big things going wrong.

It is strange to see both Bautista and Encarnacion missing from the shots.

The formula they're using maintains that Bautista's defense in RF is so bad that it more or less cancels out a hitter with an OPS+ of 144. My defense might be that bad, but Bautista's not there yet.

Like the man said - War, what is it good for?

On the matter of bullpens there was a good article on BBB about it.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/5/2/11564514/the-2016-bullpen-struggles-its-deja-vu-all-over-again

Since beginning of last year they have the 12 best adjusted ERA for the bullpen, but the third worst WPA. They are losing about a win per month because of this. Also Osuna should not be the 5th highest leveraged reliever on this team, but since Gibbons cares so much about the save that's how it turns out.

I don't look at WAR for players I watch daily, but I do think his RF defense this year has been nothing short of terrible. If the play isn't absolutely routine, he isn't making it.

The lack of a productive bench probably cost them yesterday's game. If the team had an extra bat/3rd C around instead of an unnecessary emergency reliever in Tepera/Biagini they could have used that player to PH instead of their best runner, who likely scores on the Tulo fly to RF that Saunders was thrown out on.

Obviously Martin, Tulo, and EE need to hit better, but the team isn't doing itself any favours by carrying an arm that can always be called up if the bullpen is actually overused, which it is not. No bullpen in baseball has thrown less innings over the last week.

I know, Magpie.  I don't think Bautista's defence is that bad either.  Since the start of last year, DRS has him at -9 runs over 1250 innings and UZR has him at -11.  That is probably about right.  He should be at about  0.5 or 0.6 WAR slightly ahead of Ezequiel Carrera. 

It's hard to believe that Bautista has delivered less value than Pillar over 2015 and 2016, but aging is a cruel, cruel beast.  Even for those who seem to defy it. I do think that he would be worth more as a first baseman, but at this point, the club doesn't have another outfield option. 

osuna's leverage is only low because everyone else keeps turning late innings into low leverages.

"....If the team had an extra bat/3rd C around instead of an unnecessary emergency reliever in Tepera/Biagini they could have used that player to PH instead of their best runner...."

They did have extra bats available -- they had Dominguez and Barney on the bench as options in the 7th inning, and they didn't use either of them.  (Barney was later used as a pinch runner in the 9th inning.  Dominguez wasn't used at all.)  The problem isn't the shortness of the bench -- it's the quality of the bats.

The real problem is Martin's lingering neck injury.  Gibbons has been quite open about how it's affecting Martin's hitting.  He's basically sitting Martin every 2nd game to try to help him recuperate, but so far it's not working.

I agree with you about the need for a 3rd catcher.  I've been saying for months that the lack of catching depth was one of the team's biggest problems, and it was probably the single biggest failure by Shapiro and Atkins in the off-season.  I realize that good catchers are difficult to find, and it's difficult to keep a 3rd catcher on the roster all the time, so it would probably have to be someone who is shuttled in and out of Buffalo, but I think the front office could have been more aggressive and creative in addressing the catching problem.

gibbons decided to use the hot bat carrera instead of the cold bat martin as the PH for thole. doesn't have much to do with the bench quality overall imo.

of course, dominguez is a useless call up that's true enough.

but a bit of a short bench isn't a shocker with all of travis, cola, pompey, ceciliani out of action, and exacerbated by the uselessness of some starters so far.

even then, overall the bench has been a plus so far.

For what it's worth, Gibbons did make it clear today that Barney is now officially in a platoon at 2B.  And he might sometimes hit against RHP too. 

I'd argue the issue is more that a handful of things have gone extraordinarily wrong so far.

Worst position players in baseball by fwar (no minimum PAs):

T-7th: Goins -0.6
T-7th: Martins -0.6
T-14th: Colabello -0.5

Worst pitchers by ra9war:

T-23rd: Storen -0.5
T-23rd: Dickey -0.5
T-35th: Cecil -0.4

I think that sums it up right there. 1 or 2 black holes is a nutpunch, 6 is a deathblow.

You raise a good point, CF. If Dominguez isn't a better option to PH than Carrera in that spot, what on earth is he doing on the roster? It puts the manager in a bind if he considers the same bench player to be both his best offensive and speed replacement.

Not to mention that list doesn't have EE and Tulo, both who have been very poor. When you have 3.5 hitters on your team (Donaldson, Saunders, Bautista plus Pillar) you're just not going to do well. Martin and Tulo (as well as EE) have to start performing at an average level anyway.

Uglyone, the Jays are also getting negligible value from another group of players (EE, Thole, Smoak, Tulo). It's not just the players doing extremely poorly who are hurting the team.

Between injuries (and ongoing injury risk), the aging and (in some cases) declining core, the lack of depth, the limited resources (prospects and cash) to add to the team, and the innings limits on Stroman and Sanchez (which will likely be a key factor in Sept/Oct), I just don't see the Jays as being championship-calibre this year.

I do hope I'm proved wrong.

but you expect some guys to be slumping all the time. that's normal.

but you don't expect that many to be league worst for extended stretches like this.

This PA is making it pretty clear that Tulo can be pitched to.

High time we get on with inking those five year extensions for Bautista and Encarnacion, don't you think?

Between injuries (and ongoing injury risk), the aging and (in some cases) declining core, the lack of depth, the limited resources (prospects and cash) to add to the team, and the innings limits on Stroman and Sanchez (which will likely be a key factor in Sept/Oct), I just don't see the Jays as being championship-calibre this year.

I'm not sure where you can add to the team. A first baseman who would bat 6th or later? A late inning reliever?

High time we get on with inking those five year extensions for Bautista and Encarnacion, don't you think?

Grrr.  All these straw men! 

Which five year extensions are those?  The ones that nobody here is advocating for? 

I doubt there is a poster on this site who wants two five year extensions.  Lots of people would like to see one of the two sluggers resigned at reasonable terms to both the team and the org - and few of those posters would want 5 years.  Lots of other posters want the FO to do a reset.  Lets talk the actual issues, instead of jumping on the 'I told you so' bandwagon and resorting to fallacious logic.

I read four seamers post as advocating to sign Jose and Edwin in light of Martin and Tulo struggling so badly offensively.

I see Tulo's struggles as being similar to Cano's last year.

Easy there - I wasn't suggesting anyone here was making that claim, besides the players themselves (and it may be that if both continue to perform as they have for the balance of the season, even their agents will be reluctant to ask them of any suitors, in which case the Jays may have a chance to re-sign one or both at reasonable rates and term).  I just think that watching the ghosts of Tulo and Martin play the past month underscores why those two (who are, to put it charitably, defensive liabilities at this stage in their careers) may be in for a rude awakening come the off-season.     

I don't look at WAR for players I watch daily, but I do think his RF defense this year has been nothing short of terrible. If the play isn't absolutely routine, he isn't making it.

Personally, I DO look at defensive WAR, while applying traditional small-sample caveats to mitigate its value. This season though, based on the "eye test" of having watched every Jays game, Bautista has been making an adventure out of even the most routine plays.

If he really wants to showcase his defence in his walk year, I feel like he should volunteer for a move to first base as soon as possible.

"....the ghosts of Tulo and Martin..."

In the case of Martin, it's clear that a lingering injury is a key factor in his early-season woes.  He has a chance to bounce back as his health improves.  In the case of Tulo, as I argued a couple of days ago, he still seems to have enough power and patience at the plate to make himself useful, if his batting average can just revert to something a little closer to his norms. 

I accept that a couple of the regular hitters will decline from their 2015 peaks -- maybe several of them.  But it still seems likely that most of the slumping hitters will soon improve.  I could be wrong.

Today's game is absolutely typical.  The starting pitcher is performing brilliantly, he's keeping the team in the game -- and the hitting is still anemic. How much longer can this continue?  Surely not indefinitely.

Martin looks a lot better today in his first two ABs.

The keepers of the dice are not smiling on the home nine.  A pitch off the backstop rebounds directly to the catcher with runners on 2nd and 3rd and then Donaldson takes strike three (probably an inch or two inside). 

And just prior to that Donaldson missed a three run homerun by..a foot or two?

In the case of Martin, it's clear that a lingering injury is a key factor in his early-season woes.

And if it's not "clear", it's at least wishful thinking.

Dear Edwin,

It's May.  Just mentioning.

Mike

I can't believe how many Jays games I've watched this year featuring decent to superb pitching ( Starting, that is ), only to see it squandered by the lack of timely hitting, or any hits at all, or undermined by shoddy bullpen work. If we could only combine the offence of the second half of last year with the starters work this year, the Jays would be darn near unbeatable.

I still have faith in the team, but damn these games are painful to watch right now.

"....And if it's not "clear", it's at least wishful thinking...."

Martin's OPS is almost 400 points below his career norm.  You're suggesting that this is nothing to do with the injury? 

You're suggesting that this is nothing to do with the injury?

I'm stating that you have absolutely no idea whether Martin's offensive decline is injury-related.

Even if we grant that his performance is injury-related, I think the idea that a 33 year old who catches 130 games a year isn't going to have to play through a considerable number of injuries over the balance of his deal may be somewhat fanciful.

Barney needs to homer and then flip his bat.

I am sure it has been mentioned here before, but how great is it to be able to listen to Shulman?

Survival of the fittest in that PA, and Darwin goes down looking.

Older players do tend to get injured more. As well the injuries pile on each other and they can't reach the heights they did earlier in their career. There is no question Tulo and Martin are in decline already, the question is by how much. The same can be said for EE and Jose. How this season works out will be dependent on how steep that decline is.

And yeah from the offseason threads there was a lot of clamoring by people to resign Jose and EE. Well age happens. Good job though by the FO in taking the path they did with the starters. Without the quality and depth they've been showing so far this season (which I'm not sure can last) the Jays would be in a lot more trouble.

"...I'm stating that you have absolutely no idea whether Martin's offensive decline is injury-related..."

Complete nonsense on your part.  We have a very good idea that the injury is at least ONE of the reasons for his poor hitting.  The Jays have repeatedly admitted that Martin's hitting has been affected by his injury.  His injury is obvious enough -- he wasn't even healthy enough to replace Thole at the plate in the 7th inning yesterday.  And you have not provided a single reason why we should disbelieve the Jays about this.  If you want to argue that the Jays are lying about the injury, you have to provide at least a tiny bit of evidence, which you have not done because you cannot do it.

What's your alternative theory?  That Martin's OPS of .368 is merely an age-related decline?  That he is suddenly a worse hitter than Thole?  Please enlighten us with your theory.  And while you're at it, tell us why we should believe a casual fan who has zero evidence, rather than the Jays who see Martin's injury every day?

To throw 23 pitches and have zero outs and not give up a run is quite an impressive feat.

".... I think the idea that a 33 year old who catches 130 games a year isn't going to have to play through a considerable number of injuries over the balance of his deal may be somewhat fanciful...."

Who suggested that idea?  I haven't seen anyone make that suggestion here.

Obviously Martin is playing through injury now, and he will do so in the future too.  And obviously his performance will tend to decline as he gets older.  But when his  wRC+ drops from 114 last season to negative 1 this season, it's a lot more than a normal slump or an age-related decline.  Injury is clearly part of it.  Small sample size is another part of it.

I am guessing he meant that you don't know if all the decline is from this injury. Fact is he's 33 and has put a lot of mileage on. Even if he wasn't injured odds are he'd be performing worse than last year.

Complete nonsense on your part.

When confronted with the fact that your claim to 'know' that Martin's defensive decline is the result of an injury is nothing more than hubris, you offer up nothing more that continued hubris. Again, you have absolutely no idea whether or not Martin's defensive decline is the result of injury. Any claim on your part to know this, is hubris.

Poor Cecil.  It's hard to have a .394 BABIP with a 25% IFFB rate.  That's what it was before tonight's game.  Maybe he's getting Colabello's karmic punishment. 

Did you mean to say offensive decline there?

Although TBH Martins defensive numbers are down. Hope that improves as the year goes on.

Removing Osuna after 5 pitches with Fielder-Desmond-Moreland due up and going to Biagini is quite confusing.

The Raptors' offense has been only slightly less anemic than the Jays' tonight. What's in the water in Hogtown?

Yes.

I think Gibby wants to prevent another one run loss.

Yay Smoak! Weird batting line, but it's working.

"....you have absolutely no idea whether or not Martin's defensive decline is the result of injury..."

First, you are deliberately misquoting me.   I plainly said, several times, that Martin's decline in the past few weeks is PARTLY a result of injury.  When someone deliberately misquotes another person in a debate, it's because their own argument is weak.

Second, you repeat the claim that I have "absolutely no idea" about Martin's decline.  That's false, because the statements by the Jays about Martin's injury (and its impact on his hitting) are a clear matter of public record, and you've provided nothing to dispute those statements.

Third, you should proof-read what you write, because you're now referring to "defensive decline" when the entire discussion has been about his "offensive decline."

In any event, it's obvious that you're trolling on this issue, since you prefer to misquote me and ignore the evidence.  There's no need to continue the debate.

.409 BABIP will do that.

The Rangers pitched around Donaldson to load the bases for Bautista.  The changing of the guard.

"There's no need to continue the debate."

Aww...c'mon guys. Get the measuring tapes out and settle this once and for all.

(Or just watch the game with everyone else)

Lowry sinks a half court 3 at the buzzer to force OT.

Yay Smoak! Guess that signing wasn't so bad after all.

That one-run games guy can't even throw his one cent in on a walk-off.

I thought it was odd that Smoak was getting called out earlier today along with the other slumpers, considering his OBP. Well, those 2 HRs bumped the line up to .267/.421/.422, albeit with a .417 BABIP.

That was a nice game to win. Does nothing for our W-L in one run games though, BlueJayWay.

Blue Jays are now 5-4 in two-run games.

As players get older, especially those with a ton of mileage on them, they are more prone to getting hurt, nagging injuries, their bat speed slows down, etc, etc. While it's too early to suggest Martin and Tulo have declined to the point of not being good anymore, I think a decline in general from one or both is probably realistic, and it's only going to get worse as Tulo has 4/80 left after this season, and Martin has 3/60. I liked the Martin signing as I thought he'd be able to recoup most of the value of that contract in the first three years, but if he declines in the 2nd year, that's going to be questionable.

Old roster, weak (for now) farm system, and impending free agency to two core players. The stars need to play like stars if this team has a chance. The SP is doing their jobs.

Smoak comes through. Glad to see him getting PT without having to worry about Colabello taking playing time away.

Today's probably worth 1 WAR for Smoak.

Also, is Biagini the new team mascot? Maybe they should just throw him in there when they need their luck to turn.

Shapiro still looks good. Only Storen hasn't produced yet.

Great game by Biagini, showing that even the 7th man in the bullpen can have value....

But I admit that this doesn't actually disprove 92-93's earlier point about the 7-man pen, since Tepera wasn't needed tonight, even in a 10-inning game.

I'm ok with Biagini and Floyd being new 7th and 8th inning guys.

Nice win. That would have been a tough one to lose, especially after having Pillar at 2nd with none out in the ninth.

Tulo is just looking at so many hittable pitches that he should be smashing. I don't know what's going on in his head. That AB just before Smoak's second hr....little get me over breaking ball right down the middle, fastball down the middle, then after a slider down he takes another fastball right there. What gives?

"....Shapiro still looks good...."

He looks good on the Estrada and Happ contracts.  He looks good on the acquisitions of Biagini, Chavez and Floyd.  As for the rest, we will see.  He inherited a winning team. 

Which has all the players who are sucking now. (Not surprising since most of those ones are old) I think AA is a smart guy and knew where his team was going and got out of dodge before he had to deal with the fallout of his moves.

Estrada, Happ, Chavez, Floyd, Biagini, and Storen are really Shapiro/Atkins' main pick-ups. All but Storen look good so far. I guess you can include Barney too since he was a FA. The core of the AA/Gibbons team need to play like stars (JB, EE, JD, Tulo, Martin, etc) in order for this group to pan out. The depth pieces, for the most part, are holding up their end. Only Donaldson and Bautista are hitting from that core group, and that's not going to be enough.

Given all the late leads the Jays have given up on the way to losing, of interesting note is today was the first time the Jays won a game when trailing in the 7th or later. I think.

Another thing I saw on twitter today, haven't double checked it, but apparently the Jays have won only one game this year when trailing by more than one run at any point, and that was a game against NYY when they trailed 2-0 early and came back to win. That must have been the Donaldson homerun off Eovaldi game.

Cecil and Edwin suck in April every year, and every year we act surprised and worry.

I haven't seen many posters here worrying about Cecil and Edwin.

Worrying about Tulo and Martin could become a yearly ritual too.

"....don't play Smoak so much...."

This was the solution proposed by one of our regular members a couple of days ago, in the thread from the last series.  It was his wise advice on how the Jays could improve their performance this year.  He also said the Jays are a "poor team" aside from a couple of hitters and a few pitchers.

The reality, as Gibbons knows, is that sometimes you just have to let hitters play their way out of their slumps.  Most of the big hitters in the lineup will improve. Some fans seem convinced that a month of 2016 data is more significant than a year of 2015 data.  Hasty conclusions are rarely warranted.

The Jays had a won-loss record of 23-30 in early June last season, and the pessimists were moaning.  Even in July, some of our regular members were embarking on their annual "fire Gibbons" and "fire Anthopoulos" campaigns.  When the Jays surprised the pessimists by winning their division and coming within a couple of games of the World Series, those same pessimists quickly reverted to a new theory: Anthopoulos was an evil genius who had deliberately sabotaged the team's future.  It's a convenient theory because it allows those fans to blame AA if the Jays lose, while praising Shapiro if the team wins.

Unfortunately nobody else in baseball has bought the "evil genius" theory.  If it was true, Anthopoulos would have been driven out of the majors.  Nobody would hire a guy who had deliberately destroyed his team's future and fled the wreckage.  Instead AA got a high-level job at one of the best organizations in the majors.

The other problem with the "evil genius" theory is that Shapiro doesn't believe it either.  If he believed the theory, he would have embarked on a complete rebuild as soon as he arrived, getting rid of the big contracts, dumping everyone possible, refusing to offer even a two-year contract to Bautista or Encarnacion, tearing down the core and acquiring as many prospects as possible.  In reality, Shapiro kept the team together, while tinkering around the edges and failing even to address obvious problems such as catcher depth. Seems that he was fairly confident in the team.  If only he had been as smart as the fans who can detect the "evil genius" of departed executives.

After last night's game, the Jays announced the demotion of Dominguez and the promotion of Girodo.  I'm sure the 8-man pen will be unpopular among some of us, but I would read it as a very temporary move, partly because the bullpen had to throw 7 innings over the past two days and some of them are a little gassed.  Cecil, in particular, has pitched two days in a row and probably won't be available tonight, so Girodo gives them another LHP to replace him for a game or two.  The Jays could have demoted Tepera instead of Dominguez, but I guess they're keeping Tepera around for the low-leverage and mop-up situations, so that they don't have to waste Chavez or Floyd or Biagini in those situations.  If Girodo pitches well, Tepera might be demoted in a couple of days.

LHP depth is an interesting question.  Morales is nowhere near returning to the team -- he's still throwing long-toss, from the last that I heard.  Yet his contract will be fully guaranteed by mid-May (45 days after his acquisition) and he cannot be cut from the team as long as he's on the DL.  So the Jays may be stuck with him.  Let's hope he recovers, because he could be useful.

Dominguez, meanwhile, was brought up mostly as an infield back-up for Donaldson at a time when Donaldson needed to DH because of his minor injury, so it makes sense to demote him now.  I only wish there was a stronger hitter available in Buffalo at a time when there's actually a vacancy on the Toronto roster.  Pompey is still injured, and he'll need a few weeks to get his mojo back before the Jays can consider promoting him.  Montero has a .309 average but only a .770 OPS so he's not exactly forcing his way back to the majors yet.  And there's really nobody else in the Bisons lineup who is hitting particularly well.  Dominguez was actually the best of a bad bunch.

I'm worried about Cecil and Edwin.


(got your back, KR)

The pessimists have held sway for 21 of the last 22 years in Toronto, so they do have a pretty respectable track record, unlike the optimists, who can't seem to abide anything that hints of "negativity."

Edwin's really only had two bad April's since his breakout in 2012, and those were in 2015-16. His April's from 2012-14 saw him post wRC+ totals of 176, 130, and 112 respectively, which is fine. It's not like he's terrible in April every year. A bad April in general doesn't mean it's the start of a decline or anything, especially since he essentially missed all of ST, but at age 33 given his peripherals, it's worth keeping an eye on.

I'm not sure why you're going on about this evil genius straw man. There isn't anything evil about sacrificing the future to go for it all now. It's a decision that's been made countless times across all sports. Sometimes it works out and the team wins a title, and then you don't care because flags fly forever. A lot of times it doesn't and then the team sinks back into mediocrity. As SK has said many times, this teams window of contention ends at the end of this year. With that it seems obv why an exec wouldn't want to commit to signing a long term contract knowing that, or at the least understandable. And Shapiro has understood that, because nothing he's done has committed the Jays to the all in plans of AA. They've made no moves that lose draft picks and signed no long term contracts that will come back on them,

So yeah I didn't say AA was evil, just that he was another exec from a long list of them that sold the future to try to win now, and just couldn't pull it off. Unlike some I'm not willing to give him a pass for three good months out of six years and having to live with seeing a pitcher like Syndergarrd somewhere else. I agree that I've added a personal opinion of not having to deal with the fallout of his moves as a reason in to that decision, but it's not like we ever got the straight deal on why he chose to leave.

Loup is apparently making progress.  He may be ready before Morales.

I fear that the eighth man added to the pen means that Gibbons plans to match more batter for batter in the late innings, using Cecil and Girodo as LOOGies and shorter stints between LHB in the opposing lineup for the RH relievers. I hope that I am wrong and that Tepera is replaced by a bat shortly (perhaps one not currently in the system). 

I'm not even sure what CF is arguing with the "pessimists" talk. The team was 50-51 after 101 games last season and the 2nd half run started right after they acquired 1) an ace, 2) an upgrade at short, 3) a starting LF, and 4) bullpen depth. All at the expense of 12 prospects. Price, Tulo, Revere, Hawkins, and Lowe added 4.8 wins in two months. That's pretty significant. To suggest that the 'pessimists' were unjustified in their skepticism about the team's chances prior to the Tulo trade, while conveniently ignoring that it took 3-4 trades that added nearly 5 wins in two months for the run to really take into shape, is a pretty big leap.

Yes, the Jays were better than their record at the deadline last season, but run differential is not a predictive tool. The Jays currently have a +3 RD in 2016. All that means is that based on the games they have played so far, they have performed like a .500-ish team. That doesn't mean they'll play like one the rest of the season. They could be a lot better, the same, or worse from now until October, but nothing in the current RD assesses future performance. Same deal with last season. Just because they were +100 (or whatever it was) despite being 50-51, it didn't mean they would have continued at that pace without those trades. Those trades were a huge risk, and that risk paid off in 2015. Other teams acquire big names at the deadline and collapse (see the A's in 2014). What AA did was double down on his original 2013 ideology (trading prospects for expensive vets in order to win short-term). It failed in 2013-14, and worked in 2015. It's typically a hit or miss strategy, and to his credit, he built a team in 2015 that could have won a title. It just didn't have a shelf-life, and we will see that first hand after 2016 ends.

As far as Shapiro "believing" in this group, hence why he didn't do much tinkering, do you really believe that? Bautista, Edwin, and Tulo have NTC's. They can't be traded without their approval. That's one issue. Secondly, Rogers did not want to rebuild when the team was mediocre, you think they would have green lighted one after the season they had in 2015? No way. Shapiro likely had different ideas of what to do with this team when he was hired, but then they went on a huge run, and plans changed. The win curve for the Jays heavily leans towards 2016 being a year where they can win. Not so much in 2017. It just made sense to stick with this group, see what happens and then reassess a year from now when the roster turnover will be huge. Signing players to long-term deals in their 30's when the window likely ends after this season doesn't make sense. His offers to Bautista and Encarnacion are clearly window dressing.

I'm more pessimistic about players like Happ falling off than I am about guys like EE and Cecil staying terrible.

Yeah plus how the group of vets are performing right now is going to scare them even more away from making those sort of deals. It's easy to look at Tulo and Martin and project that to EE and Jose. Next year they'll have a lot of work to do to be able to field a team that can even hit .500. Their starting pitching should be solid, not excellent but solid. But their bats are going to be weak and there is precious little other than Pompey coming up soon to fill in.

But UO the cost to a player like Happ falling off is quite minimal. He is being paid what, 11 or 12 million dollars for a couple years after this one? If he falls back to being a sub one win player they can handle that. It's when the player is being paid 20 million for several years that it becomes a lot more difficult to deal with. Which is why Toronto was never going to sign Jose and EE to the extravagant deals they're seeking.

chicken little central in here.

we're basically .500 so far against a tough sked with half the lineup not even shown up yet and an hilariously unclutch performance from the pen.

relax.

I don't get why the same people who are comfortable paying a 33yr old perennial 1-2war Happ $12m x 3yrs freak the hell out over paying a 31yr old perennial 4-5war Tulo $20m x 5yrs.

On another note, the front offices who decided to make big splashes this offseason are all off to hot starts. The ones that decided to tinker not so much.

"I'm sure the 8-man pen will be unpopular among some of us, but I would read it as a very temporary move, partly because the bullpen had to throw 7 innings over the past two days and some of them are a little gassed."

Even after 4 innings last night, the only bullpen that has thrown less over the last 7 days is that of the Yankees, because they had 2 off days. The only reliever who should be unavailable tonight is Cecil, who has gotten hot in 4 of the last 5 days. If the other guys are so tired that they require an extra arm to be added even when Tepera hasn't pitched in a week, the team really needs to find some bullpen arms that can withstand the normal rigors of an MLB season.

I sincerely hope that the Jays also realized Dominguez served zero purpose on the roster and that this 8 man nonsense is for a couple of days before Dominguez's replacement arrives. Not having any viable call-up candidates in Buffalo is not a reason to carry an unnecessary arm in the bullpen. Sign or trade for somebody who can add something to your MLB bench. It's not a tall task.

btw I wouldn't at all be surprised to see us play around with an 8 man pen until Bourn is ready to come up.

the injuries to pompey and ceciliani have been annoying.

Because Happ hasn't shown any signs of decline yet. His velocity is as good as it's always been and if anything he'd improved lately. Before Tulo had ever joined the Jays he was in decline already. He has had significant injury issues and he'll probably never be a 4 win player again. (Although I hope he proves me wrong) Running a baseball team isn't like running a fantasy team. Running out and getting all the big name people doesn't get you very far.

Happ doesn't have to decline. Even a bad Tulo is more valuable than a good Happ.

and besides....

Happ

2013: 107fip-, 122xfip-
2014: 111fip-, 104xfip-
2015: 88fip-, 92xfip-
2016: 113fip-, 115xfip-

same ol' Happ.

On another note, the front offices who decided to make big splashes this offseason are all off to hot starts. The ones that decided to tinker not so much.

C'mon, you're playfully trolling with this, aren't you? Once you set aside the clearly rebuilding teams, and a Not Quite Yet team (Twins), it seems about split to me. The Splashies (I'm guessing $100M or so FA contracts is where you were going) have some hot (Orioles, Mets, Cubs) the cold (Diamondbacks), but most are within spitting distance of 500, or their expected record. The Tinkers get some hot (Washington, Chicago, Seattle), the cold (Houston, Yankees (Yay!)), and everyone else also hanging out in the mushy middle... Except the Phillies. That's just crazy stuff, right there.

I'm always playfully trolling, of course.

but I'd probably include the red sox in the hot big splashes category. (also a popular search on pornhub.)

And there's really nobody else in the Bisons lineup who is hitting particularly well.

Where the hell is Matt Hague now that we finally need him? (Yes, I know where Matt Hague is.)

Happ may be posting the same FIPs and xFIPs, but he's not the same guy. In fact, he's not even the same guy as in Pittsburgh. Now, he's pounding the strike zone (about 4% higher zone% than career), and getting more swinging strikes (9.2% vs 8%) even though batters are swinging at strikes and not balls (the O-swing and Z-Swing numbers). I'm quite intrigued to see how this plays out.

Of course, as for Tulo, having a good fielding SS who isn't really hitting is so much better than where things were last year when they had a SS that couldn't do either. Given his history, I'm willing to give him more than a month or two before I leave him in the ditch. Same for Martin. Right now, they both look horrible because their timing's all messed up. It happens. It might be decline, or it might just be a funk, or bad pitch selection. Even if one is inclined to bench them (umm, no), their replacements hit even worse (Goins, Thole/fodder), and you aren't exactly going to find any takers right now (April, budgets spent, rosters set, the aforementioned bad month). Just chill, ride it out, hope they figure it out and that things normalize the rest of the year.

Hah! I'm pretty sure that's a search I don't want to do... As for the Sox, they're playing .577, and were largely pinned as a likely contender. I wouldn't say there's anything hot about that, and are right around their anticipated record. I did debate it, though, since they're 4 away from 500.

Oh, and I should add that I gave an honorary Splashy to the Mets, given the short-but-expensive nature of the Cespedes contract. Also, I didn't want to start getting into trades, because that just gets messy in terms of judging who makes a splashy, and if it only counts for one side (think the Giles or Miller trades).

During the period 2014-16, Happ has thrown 360 innings, walked 105, struck out 304 and has a 3.80 ERA (career 4.09).  He has been throwing a few more strikes over the last 3 seasons and it has led to a significant decline in his walk rate.  This has enabled to go somewhat deeper into games and throw more innings per start. 

Like any pitcher, Happ could have arm troubles.  From a performance perspective though, please give me the starters who walk less than 3 per 9IP and strike out more than 7 and are not vulnerable to the running game.  It doesn't hurt that he is 10-2 with an ERA under 2.5 in his last 16 starts- you might think that there is a chance that he is advancing even further.  I'll be watching his K rate over the next few outings to see if it returns to his norms over the 2014-16 period.  I won't get excited about his xFIP- one way or another though. 

Coke to Spifficus.

well the sox were pinned as a likely contender thanks to their big splashes, so you have to include them.

not that they'll maintain this start, of course. (.335babip -#1 mlb, .460sos - #30 mlb).

Yeah, but they're hovering around their projection, so it's tough to call it a hot start as much as merely a start.

To me the most encouraging sign from Happ so far is his new hard cutter which he can throw in the zone to RH batters, to both sides of the plate, and induce swinging strikes. He didn't have that weapon last go-round.

Compared to my unreasonably lofty expectations, he's kinda sucked. His batted ball luck has been very good. Several untimely room-service fastballs. Many timely atomballs. His ERA may regress, but I expect his underlying performance (and I don't just mean FIP) to improve.

And Gibbons' fetish for 8 man pens returns. Sigh

Still, if the Jays would fire Gibbons and start platooning Tulo and Saunders in the batting order I would have my full wish list from a day or two ago so I can hardly complain if things continue to go bad from here on out.

Really, this team looks much much more good than bad on the whole. Storen and Goins are really the only two players that I hoped would be fairly significant contributors and who I am worried about long term. Both have, to some extent, good internal replacements. I continue to believe the season long risk is starting pitching and that has been excellent relative to expectations.

It's funny.  If you break down Happ's performance so far.  He's allowed many line drives and fly balls to centerfield.  Whether by luck or thanks to Kevin Pillar or both, his BABIP on line drives is 100 points lower than league average and on fly balls is 50 points lower than league average.

If you break down Happ's performance so far.  He's allowed many line drives and fly balls to centerfield.

Ack.  Basic grammar fail. Please replace period and capital H with a comma and a small h. 

Jeff Quinton at BP takes a look at 'the full rebuild' approach to running a franchise and has some interesting thoughts here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29090

People jonesing for Shapiro to sell off assets and try the full rebuild may want to read this article - a key quote:

the full-rebuild, and even lesser rebuilds have been successful over the past 10 years. But will they continue to be effective going forward? (Finally, we get to a worthwhile question.)

While they will almost certainly be effective in reducing costs, there is reason to believe they will not be as effective at leading to wins (either as quickly or in total) as they used to. Mainly, the reasons that worked to rebuilding teams' advantages are now working against them. For starters, supply of short-term production has increased with the increase in the number of teams rebuilding, with the everybody-punts mentality we see in the National League this year. Relatedly, the demand for short-term production has thus decreased as more teams focus on profits (or long-term sustainability) as opposed to wins even when they are competing for championships (see: (at least most of the time) the Mets, Cardinals, Astros, and Pirates).

also, how can you not love Joe Biagini?

John Lott asked about his first win ...  "Did he get the ball Smoak lofted into the Jays’ bullpen as a souvenir of his milestone?

“Somebody gave me a ball,” he said. “I was trying to smell it to see if it had his scent of his bat on it, but I don’t quite have the skill of that yet.”"

Smoak bats 5th and Tulowitzki 6th in today's lineup.  Good idea to break up the RHHs and (to a lesser degree) to ride the hot hand and take the pressure off the cool one.

No one suggested doing a full rebuild, so that's a strawman. Shapiro hasn't done it and no posters here have suggested it (other than CF in his post above thinking Shapiro would). Signing players like Happ, Estrada and Dickey, not to mention trading for Chavez would be pointless for someone trying the full rebuild, or even partial. Why waste 40 million dollars on pitcher salaries if you're not concerned about winning.

We're just all saying that AA's moves have left the team in a poor spot for 2017, and that's just reality. They will have to rebuild since they're going to be losing EE and Jose and will need to fill those spots as well as continue to deal with the decline of Martin and Tulo. Of course this wouldn't have been necessary if someone hadn't traded about 30+ players in the last 3 years of his contract, but whatever.

Unless you mean the posts talking about if the Jays are out of it this year they should try to trade Jose or EE at the deadline? That's not rebuilding, that's just common sense. It seems rather clear there is a vast difference between Jose's view of his self worth and most of baseball. I'm sure some team out there will overspend, but I'd prefer it to not be Toronto. So if management is accepting that they're not going to be able to resign him, then they should do a trade if possible. Any players they get in a trade deadline deal would be more major league ready than what they'd get if they let Jose walk, which would just be a first round draft pick. That is less rebuilding, not more.

I do agree about the value of shipping everyone off and doing a full rebuild. But I don't think there is any sign of that or indication from management about doing that. Or support here from posters for that. If they were doing such a thing, the best haul to get would be for Donaldson. If they start shopping him around, well that would signify something has changed.

Kasi, tons of posters around here are using your logic, and I assume that what they - and you - are talking about is, if not a 'full rebuild', than a major one.  How many posts in this thread alone refer to the Jays 'window' closing after 2016?  How many posters are busy decrying the state of our farm system?  Someone recently referred to it as the 29th best system - lnsane IMO.  I expect us to be in the mid teens at the end of the year, simply based on our lower-level talent.  If I'm wrong, I owe you a beer. 

You said this: "and that's just reality. They will have to rebuild since they're going to be losing EE and Jose and will need to fill those spots as well as continue to deal with the decline of Martin and Tulo. Of course this wouldn't have been necessary if someone hadn't traded about 30+ players in the last 3 years of his contract, but whatever."

Frankly, I dislike statements like "that's just common sense", 'and that's just reality' when you are talking about an opinion.  Perhaps you consider it highly probable.  Perhaps it is.  But my opinion is "just reality"?  Weak. 

I think Shapiro would be an idiot if he didn't attempt to resign one of the two - and I assume that he thinks that way too.  Not saying 'at any cost', but of course, give and take is required on both sides.  Is there room on our roster for a highly paid veteran DH with a long-term relationship with the fans and a good chance of delivering value on his contract?  Of freaking course there is.

Hanging on to donaldson - under team control for two more years - and trading everyone else is the likely scenario for a full rebuild.  Signing Marco Estrada for two years, or JA Happ for three, is not even remotely evidence that the FO doesn't want a rebuild.  Did you watch the leafs this year?  tons of short term contracts signed in the offseason with the explicit goal of trading them as part of a rebuild. 

This whole 'old players are the devil' meme is a bit tired.  People might not like that fading veterans get huge contracts, but it's the reality in MLB, and done right, it's a competitive advantage for the team. 

If you guys are all so outraged about the economics of the game, where's the conversation about paying minor leaguers a living wage? 

And of course, I expect a comedeanbychance lecture about how naive and stupid socialist ideals are.  Bring it! 

I don't expect a full rebuild. I think the front office will make Bautista and Encarnacion QOs, then let them sign elsewhere unless they agree to the Jays' comparatively modest terms. Probably the Jays would prefer to keep Bautista over Encarnacion, as he offers more overall value and defensive versatility. Saunders might receive a QO as well.

I think Shapiro will continue to add "value" players like Happ and Estrada on shorter-term deals and in trades, in an effort to keep the team competitive without sacrificing prospects and draft picks. Ultimately the goal will be to have a flourishing farm system that keeps on generating an abundance of talent at low cost. I expect incremental changes in lieu of blockbuster signings and trades.

This isn't a criticism; rather, it's a prediction about the likely direction Shapiro will take.

Resign Jose to a 5/150 year contract? Give me a break, but it is what he wants. There is no middle ground to be made there. EE might be more reasonable, but even he is apparently seeking a 5 year deal. If that can be done for something similar to the one Victor Martinez got then sure. Or the one Adrian Beltre just got when he resigned for 2 more years at 18/per that's cool too. But if its a 5/100 than no thanks, nice to see you go EE.

As for old players are the devil, well the beginning of this season is giving us as fans a clue to the risks involved. We'll see if it continues. It's something that crippled the Phillies and they're finally recovering from it, and it is something that is currently hamstringing our friends up in the Bronx given what they're paying to CC and ARod. Old players when resigned should be signed to short term deals. The rate should be competitive with their performance, but for every long term contract that worked out with an old baseball player you can name 5 that didn't.

Beltre is a good example of a well done contract with an older player. He is a year older than Jose but actually has defensive value. And he doesn't lack much offensively compared to him as well. He just accepted a 2 year extension at 18/year. Jose wants 5/150. Those different figures show what those players want. Well Jose wants a lot more, and if he can be negotiated with that's cool, but everything out of Jose's camp so far has him taking a hardline position on this.

And of course, I expect a comedeanbychance lecture about how naive and stupid socialist ideals are. Bring it!

Totally unfair! I've never suggested you were naive! Your constant willingness to share with us the main 'points' from the "Capitalism is Very Bad!" undergrad social science class, shows you are more one motivated by a sense of mission than by naivety.

Resign Jose to a 5/150 year contract? Give me a break, but it is what he wants. There is no middle ground to be made there.

The middle ground is what the market is willing to bear. Jose's demands put him on an island and he's said as much when asked about comparable situations (i.e. he said there haven't been any).

He can say there's no negotiation, but it's irrelevant if he doesn't get at least one team to agree with him. Personally I think he lands somewhere in the $20M - $25M range. Whether the Jays wade into those waters is another story.

I'd be fine with what Cameron suggested back in February, a four year extension in the 75-80 million dollar range. Maybe as high as 85, but after that he can walk.

To me the most encouraging sign from Happ so far is his new hard cutter which he can throw in the zone to RH batters, to both sides of the plate, and induce swinging strikes. He didn't have that weapon last go-round.

PitchFX seems to be classifying those as 2-seamers.

Happ said that he wasn't really doing that bad in Seattle, ERA just over 3 for 3 months, then he had a difficult segment with mechanical problems that he worked on in Pittsburgh.

He did throw more fastballs in Pittsburgh. Mostly 4-seamers too. He said that wasn't a conscious decision. Maybe that's on the catcher.

The big difference is not the swinging strikes. The big difference is that in Pittsburgh, the hitters he faced were swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, 30% of the time versus 20% everywhere else he played. That's a massive difference for a pitchers that throws a lot of balls.

Your constant willingness to share with us the main 'points' from the "Capitalism is Very Bad!" undergrad social science class,

But I have a master's in "capitalism is very bad"!

I would like, tongue in cheek aside, to claim a perspective on the intersection of sports, politics and capitalism.  There is value in considering, for example, the rights of minor league players to earn a living wage. 

And frankly, I consider the relentless profit motive of, say, Rogers, to be kinda gross - I'm thinking history will be on my side on this one, but if not, CBDC, I will buy you a beer.  In, say, 40 years or so when we know for sure.

Resign Jose to a 5/150 year contract? Give me a break, but it is what he wants. There is no middle ground to be made there.

Okay Kasi, I get it - you are straw man guy.  But once again, I'd like to point out that nobody wants that contract, not even Jose - it would appear to be a bargaining ploy. 

It is actually documented that is his opening position. (Actually it was higher than that) But don't let the facts get in your way.

Well in the 6 years, 150-175 million range or so. Which makes it miles between a reasonable offer and Jose's stance. Beltre who is a player of equivalent value got 2/18. That's kinda a big difference.

I don't expect a rebuild either. If the Jays are out of it at the deadline, then they should look to move Bautista, Encarnacion, Saunders, Dickey, Cecil, Storen, etc. That scenario would not imply a rebuild; it's just a way to maximize assets in a lost season (if it comes to that). The only alternative if they are out of it would be to keep the roster and let everyone go after the season. Chances are Bautista and Edwin are the only ones who would net any comp picks, and that's not going to help the 2017-18 teams (Donaldson's window).

A full scale rebuild probably won't happen in Toronto even if Shapiro wants it, unless Rogers suddenly doesn't care about attendance and viewership. It might have been feasible if they flopped in 2015, but certainly not now. My guess is they'll let all the FA's go and try to find short-term stop gaps to fill those holes.

As far as aging players, when a team's window is about to end, trying to extend it by paying players market value for past performance is more likely to set the organization back. Donaldson is fine because his pay, due to arbitration, will be based on his performance. With Tulo and Martin, for example, they will be paid superstar money for likely their twilights. You want to avoid situations like that, unless payroll drastically increases so that you can mitigate that decline by adding better players around them.

It remains to be seen whether Shapiro and Atkins implement their strategy effectively, but I had no issues with the way they handled the off-season. Try to win in 2016, keep all prospects/picks, and then reassess after the season. It was the logical way to go.

It is actually documented that is his opening position. (Actually it was higher than that) But don't let the facts get in your way.

Agreed.  And of course, you included my response to you in your own answer - 'opening position'.   You'll note that I said "bargaining ploy"  just two or three comments up from your reply. 

Quit while you are (relatively) ahead on this one man. 

People who don't like capitalism might not be good at making money.

Ah, pubster.  just waiting around to jump on bandwagons are you?

That might have been the first time this year that Drew Storen pitched well.

You walk Pillar and you deserve to lose.

-Martin looks a lot better the last couple of days.

-Pillar still wanted to swing at that pitch that nearly beaned him

-one run win!

So... what's Martin hitting without the beard?

in the end, the team will be better for these early struggles.

#silverlinings

keep your mojo going for one more start at least, Happy, because damn do we need to be back at .500 already.


and great recovery by Sanchez after a rough beginning. that's what starters are made of.

How about Sanchez and the bullpen, holding Texas at bay while the Jays rebounded to tie and then win the game?

I am still wondering what's wrong with Tulo (another 0-for tonight, including his failed PA in the ninth with two on and none out), but there are promising signs among the rest of the lineup.

You walk Pillar and you deserve to lose.

Chuck, that's a little unfair.  Pillar has made strides this season in particular in not chasing balls outside the zone (fangraphs has his swing rate outside the zone at about 30% which is tolerable).  He took a couple of pitches in the at-bat in the ninth that he might have chased a couple of years ago.  He has only walked 3 times because he is making contact on pitches in the zone at an excellent rate (and he has been hit 4 times- he does dive in). 

Nice approach by Martin off an obviously tired Barnette.

See the thing is I don't think that is a bargaining ploy. Bautista was asked to clarify and he went into a lot of detail about Rogers and how much they make and what he deserves from that. He had the opening to soften his stance, and if anything did the opposite. I think he truly believes he is worth that much,

Jer what band wagon did I jump on?

I've been loving capitalism for decades.

The key is to figure out how to make money.

Realistically, I don't know that they can trade a veteran for a guy that would make the team better next year. A player that doesn't make his team better this year is just a question mark next year. Something teams have surpluses at some positions, but they Jays are already set down the middle and at 3B.

hey guys maybe save the rebuild until we're maybe...i dunno...5 games back?

Don't worry. There won't be a tear down rebuild. Rogers won't allow it, because it will affect not only attendance, but ratings as well. They'd rather have saleable mediocrity.

"Someone recently referred to it as the 29th best system - lnsane IMO. I expect us to be in the mid teens at the end of the year, simply based on our lower-level talent."

29th is not far off. Pretty much every organization has the lower level talent the Jays have. It's not that the amazing prospects are lower in the system. Amazing prospects in A ball still get graded at a high level. Moncanda was Baseball America's #3 prospect and in A ball. Swanson was #17 and in low A, Alford was rated highly in A ball, etc... The problem with the Jays' system is that they don't have many (if any) top prospects and that they have very few good prospects.

Take Justin Maese, a perfect example of a lower level prospect with some upside. This site had him as the Jays #9 prospect. Baseball America doesn't have him in their top-20 prospects in the Gulf Coast League. He's a decent prospect but there are just tons of these guys around. In fact, there are tons of prospects who are better around.

What makes the difference is elite prospects and lots of good to great prospects at higher levels. The Jays just don't have these kinds of players. It's a weak system and unlikely to get better soon.

People here can have opinions about the Jays farm system. How they can compare our system to the other 29 when they know little of what the other 29 consist of seems highly delusional.

The Jays system may rise to some (small) degree vs other systems simply for the fact few if any of our prospects will graduate.

First time since Monday, anyways.

Sorry Glevin, the delusional comment wasn't directed at you.


We can't sign any IFA's for over $300K this season and we'll be drafting low. Even with an extra 2nd round pick, our influx this year will be less or much less than most every other team.

I believe someone mentioning the Jays had only won once this year while trailing by 2 runs. We're up to twice.

29th is deserved.

but that rank is almost certain to rise quickly simply because we have nobody at risk of graduating this year.

the fact that we're ranked behind teams whose top prospects are older than guys like sanchez osuna and pompey doesn't really mean you may think it does.

and that's aside from the fact that our low minors guys may be better than other teams'.

Well, if attempting to evaluate farm systems is delusional, than the good folks at BP are delusional. They had the Jays in their sixth tier this year, in 22nd place but with not much separating them from the top team in their tier (SD, 18th).

The folks at Baseball America had us 24th.

John Sickels has us in his so-so group: "These are systems that have weaknesses but are not hopeless. Some could improve into solidness soon; others are reputable systems in a temporary down phase". He ranks us in 25th place and notes that much of the talent is in the low minors.

Fangraphs has us in 20th by surplus WAR, and 28th by KATOH.

Joel Reuter at Bleacher Report has us in 20th, and Jordan Gluck of MLB reports has us in 19th - although I don't really know how legit these guys are.

I'm in no way claiming to be definitive here - but it is possible to gain a sense of the consensus around our system - mid to high 20s.

And the future does look bright despite our lack of international signing monies and a later place at the draft table - the same team that built our strong system pre trade-deadline last year is back at the table, much of the talent is lower level and could rise quickly and draft order is much less significant in baseball than other sports.

Add to that potential QO compensation for Bautista, EE and perhaps even Saunders or Dickey.

"....Martin looks a lot better the last couple of days....."

This article makes it very clear how much of his 2016 problems (but not all, obviously) were due to the neck injury, which has now finally gone away: 
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/rejuvenated-russell-martin-playing-like-man-possessed-blue-jays/

We should be talking more about Sanchez. While it was always talked about, it's still amazes how an improvement in command like this not only lowers the walks but also ups the Ks so much. His 13.9k-bb% is now not just acceptable but outright good, and that still comes with an elite 60+gb%.

Unlike last year, there's no fluke to his ERA this year. His .278babip and 79lob% are very sustainable, and his peripherals line up nicely with his ERA: 72era-, 82fip-, 80xfip-.

Even his number vLHP look solid and sustainable.

And this while he's impressively averaging 6.4ip/gs on only 97 pitches per start.


This is a legit exciting development. He's pitching at a sustainable 4-5war level, and we know he has the raw stuff to back that up.

For rebuilding the farm, I checked MLBTrade Rumours and they say the Jays get $6.6 mil this year vs $5.4 last year. For comparison, 11 teams get less money in 2016 vs 2015 to spend (Yankees are in that group, Astros the biggest cut by $11.4 mil) while 13 teams get more of an increase than the Jays do. For International the Jays go down by $224k - 9 teams get cut harder. Max draft penalties go to Yankees, Rays, D-backs, Angels, Red Sox, Royals, Dodgers, Giants. The Jays are in a partial limit for just this year to $300k per player max but if Vlad Jr works out then it was well worth it.

Sanchez has been very good. He has been able to maintain his GB rate while increasing his K's and cutting his BB's nearly in half (as a SP). He is a completely different pitcher. I said previously that Stroman frustrated me a bit because it seemed like he intentionally tries to pitch to contact some times, but Sanchez looks like he's made a real effort to get more swings and misses. Great to see.

jerjapan, here's the point you keep missing. The people at BP, BA etc. do talent evaluation as part of their jobs. They are paid to study other teams systems, talk to scouts etc and form informed (or as informed as can be reasonably expected) opinions on systems strengths in relation to each other and place them in some order.

That is not delusional.

You or I believing we can do the same is.

Remember when Law and others criticized the Jays for changing Sanchez delivery, I believe shortening his stride?

law also claimed they poorly developed syndergaard, even though he was dominant.

hoffman was another which law and that kid who was at fangraphs claimed we changed their delivery. i'm sure colorado has now changed it back.

actually scratch that - law didn't like noah much as a jay period. it was when he went to NY that he started praising him and made up some sort of mechanics change to justify it.

"You or I believing we can do the same is."

Fortunately, neither of us do. As I said before, it's fairly easy to gather the consensus though. To suggest that you are either paid and therefore knowledgeable or a fan and therefore have no sense of any rankings is a false dichotomy.

Interesting article breaking down Tulo's difficulties making contact on balls in the strike zone.  Not sure what this portends, exactly, for the balance of the season but it is consistent with the observation that his approach remains sound but the execution has fallen off dramatically.  Maybe there are mechanical adjustments to be made but until he does, pitchers will continue to challenge (and for the most part, overmatch) him.

 

Early in the season, I felt that umpires were calling balls at the top of the zone and  modestly above the zone much more often than before.  It seemed to particularly affect Tulowitzki and Goins, who to my eye, seemed lost about what was a ball and a strike at the top of the zone.  It's messed both of them up, I believe, and in ways that go beyond those pitches. 

In the last couple of weeks, I have seen many fewer of those calls.  Both Tulo and Goins need to revert to their former approaches (lay off the ball chest level and up unless there are two strikes and even then often lay off).

The other thing with Tulo is that he does seem to be trying to pull the ball a little more than formerly. 

personally i think the umps have been screwing us all year but that's probably homer talk

On Sanchez, just as further back-up for uglyone's post (or perhaps to restate the numbers a different way), these stats were tweeted by Ben Nicholson-Smith a few hours ago:

Aaron Sanchez through first 6 starts of 2015: 24K, 25 BB

Sanchez through first 6 starts of 2016: 34K, 12 BB

(And to add my own commentary: Sanchez is an example of how sometimes we shouldn't worry excessively about the stats that a prospect might have in the minors.  The good prospects will keep improving.  A high BB rate at the age of 20 or 21 isn't necessarily going to persist for his entire career. Pitching prospects, in particular, are making all sorts of adjustments and changes as they advance through the minors, so the stats won't always be the best reflection of his strengths and weaknesses.)

that reminds me that the improvement actually started last year....Last 10 starts:

10gs, 6.6ip/gs, 19.1k%, 7.5bb%, .277babip, 68era-, 95fip-

and the only thing driving that fip up is a hr issue last year that hasn't been there this year.

that's pretty crazy good.

I've been watchign Sanchez to do a Halladay - go from a 1-1 ratio of BB-SO to a 'wow'. Halladay first 9 starts in 2001 after his disaster in 2000 - 17-50 BB-SO vs Sanchez 12-34 this year. Not as good but still very nice.

Do I expect Sanchez to become Halladay? No. But if he can be Halladay lite that'd be sweet. FYI: Halladay did that at 24, Sanchez doing his stuff at 23.

Pre-breakout...
Halladay: 231 IP, 123 BB 139 SO 86 ERA+
Sanchez: 125 1/3 IP, 53 BB 88 SO 149 ERA+
Sanchez as starter: 66 IP 37-42 BB-SO ratio 3.55 ERA

Hrm. Sanchez far ahead of Halladay by any measure other than innings and given this year will go onto the pre age 24 category it looks even more ahead.

Abusing Derek Holland? Now that's entertainment!

Wow. Only 1 unproductive PA the 1st time through the order.

The boys are back?

I forgot what a big inning felt like thanks to the first month of this season. Good to see the bats wake up a bit.

This all seems wonderfully familiar...

A laugher at last! I hope we have turned a corner.

Boys must have found their hitting shoes...... guess Holland must really not like Bautista(Jays) now.

Ryan Tepera may pitch tonight! And Girodo too!

Raps and Jays both up 10.

They're just trying to justify Tepera's presence on the roster.
Moving along, nothing to see.

No strikeouts on the evening for the Jays.

Holland's game score was -11. Ouch.

warmin' up.

excellent outing from happ.

nice to see us able to field a lineup where the majority of hitters have above average numbers again:

Donaldson 180wrc+
Saunders 159
Carrera 156
Smoak 138
Bautista 131
Barney 122
En'cion 118
Pillar 115

and from espn's postgame blog:

"Blue Jays: 2B Devon Travis played in the field for the first time since off-season shoulder surgery during extended spring training as the Blue Jays played the Yankees. In four innings, he handled two plays without any problems. "Shoulder feels great," Travis said. "I don't even think about it. Getting ready for baseball." At the plate, he went 0-for-3."

Encarnacion's getting hot. Wednesday: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI; Thursday: 3-4, HR, 6 RBI. Usually this is the indicator, he's getting hot. When that happens, he can carry a Team. When that Team is also hitting better, anything is possible. Best test is Saturday verse Kershaw.

Could we have a little less dragging of feet to get a new Blue Jays - Dodgers post up please. April's behind us and the Jays are doing well for May. Time to get excited again.

Could we have a little less dragging of feet to get a new Blue Jays - Dodgers post up please.

You know this site is run by volunteers, right?

You know this site is run by volunteers, right?

That's my bad; I've been collecting Batter's Box subscription fees from Richard for years.

I wonder if Gibbons will reinstate Pillar to the leadoff role, and move Saunders down to the 5 slot (with Smoak 6th and Tulowitzki 7th).  Saunders does have the better offensive slash projection, but when you factor in baserunning, the difference is not huge.  It's important to remember that Saunders' great start has been partially fueled by a .400 BABIP without ball in play data to support it. 

In the 5 slot, Saunders' power can be put to more effective use. 

Neither leadoff option is a very good one, but I am seeing enough discipline at the plate from Pillar that he can get on base at better than league average rates (current league OBP .314). In other words, he can do as well as Ben Revere.

You know this site is run by volunteers, right?

He knows full well. Not the first time.

mike i'm not sure i agree but yeah I'm 90% sure Pillar's the leadoff guy again.

"....In the 5 slot, Saunders' power can be put to more effective use...."

I've been making this argument since the beginning of the season (although I assumed Saunders would bat 6th, rather than 5th, before we saw how much power he would flash this year, and how badly Tulo would hit).  Saunders feels like a natural for the 5th slot.

Pillar, meanwhile, is now showing why some of us believed that he had the potential to hit lead-off.  It's still early, and his low career OBP is a valid issue for the skeptics to raise, but I've always felt that he had a chance to improve his OBP this year, and so far he is doing exactly that. 

On a broader point: after last night's game, the Jays are really rounding into form.  Their starting pitching remains strong, and the hitting is catching up to where it should be.  (I'm fairly confident that Martin's performance over the past four games will be closer to his season production than the earlier injury-affected numbers.)  if Martin is indeed returning to normal, Tulo and Goins would be the only weak spots in the lineup, and I believe the Jays can solve 2B with a combination of Barney and (later) Travis.  Even if Tulo never returns to form, which is far from certain, the Jays can afford to carry a weak-hitting shortstop who is strong defensively.

Man, I feel bad for people who have to deal with Richard on a day to day basis. Must suck.

i always thought power was more crucial when the bases were empty, and singles more important with runners on.

UO I know what you mean.

With a runner on third with 1 out, do you want a high strike out high HR guy? Or a guy that puts the ball into play?

With 2 outs no one on, would you rather a guy put a ball into play or a guy with HR potential.

Yes, CF, I think that you were correct about that. I felt that Pillar needed some more strike zone discipline consolidation, but I've seen enough now.

As for the value of on-base/baserunning vs. slugging skills in the 1 and 5 slots, it's not a huge thing but the mathematics does support the importance of slugging in the 5 and on-base/baserunning in the 1.  The most common runners on situations are runner on 1st (about 42%), runner on 2nd (about 19%) and runners on 1st and 2nd (about 15%).  The run value of a double (as compared with a single or a walk) with nobody on is much, much less than the difference in run-values in the common runners on situations.  Similarly for home runs.  It isn't a huge deal though because the 5 slot opens an inning more than any other slot save the 1st (because the most common outcome of the 1st inning is a 4 batter inning). 

I think last night's lineup construction is the right answer. Against a RH starter, have Saunders lead off and Pillar hit in the bottom 3rd. And against LH starting, have Pillar lead off and rest Saunders with Carrera continue his hot hitting against LH pitching.

the key here is that despite his approach issues, with his pure hitting skills there's always the chance that pillar's current numbers are a sustainable improvememt for him.

which is scary, because if he can hit like this, then he's literally one of the most valuable players in baseball.

on the other hand, there's a better chance this is just a typical pillar hot streak with unsustainable babip.

Early season stats are fun.  American League outfielders in 2016, ranked by fWAR:

1)  Mike Trout  2.0
2)  Adam Eaton  1.8
3)  Kevin Pillar  1.4

and pillar was already a top 50 player by both fwar and bwar last year, when he was a below average hitter.

I really like Saunders at the top of the order, mainly because I want the better hitters to get more at-bats, and it's the easiest way to get the best hitters on the team as high in the batting order without the hereticism required to move the reigning AL MVP into the leadoff spot. Saunders has the pedigree of an above-average hitter, while Pillar has never shown he can be more than a #8 hitter in a lineup like the Jays have, and once Travis returns (assuming he keeps hitting) Pillar should probably be batting 9th. I have no problem with Pillar starting as a defense-first player, but I don't think the organization is convinced (and they don't have any reason to be) that he can leaf off for a contending team.

Saunders is a career 95 wRC+ hitter.  Pillar is a career 92 wRC+.  Saunders definitely seems to have added some pop (and lost some speed) since his knee trouble. I'll grant that he is the better offensive player as of now. 

The heretical lineup begins Donaldson, Bautista, Saunders, Encarnacion.  It is probably the best of the lineups, but there is no chance of it happening. 

I thinm we have to note this difference though:

Last 3yrs (including this year):

Saunders 127wrc+ (397pa)
Pillar 96wrc+ (869pa)

Last 5yrs

Saunders 111wrc+ (1418pa)
Pillar 92wrc+ (979pa)