I took a gander at espn's relative power index for the first time this year, as I was annoyed that the red sox just piled up a bunch of wins against the 2 worst teams in baseball so far this year and wanted some reassurance....

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

the basic formula is something like 25% team win% + 50% opponents win% ÷ 25% opponents' opponents win% I think.

So RPI

5.BAL .535
12.TBL .513
20.TOR .492
23.BOS .473
27.NYY .452

with these strength of schedules:

5.TBR .525
13.TOR .512
15.BAL .508
26.NYY .469
29.BOS .449

which made me feel a bit better at least.

This team is underperforming. When can we start talking about whether Shapiro/Atkins will fire Gibbons? Do people here think he'll be allowed to take this team to .500 all the way along? Do Bautista and/or EE allow themselves to be traded at the deadline? What team is buying and has the prospects that we covet?

...ah, never mind, I just looked at the calendar. It's only April and I'm only kidding around.

That said, why not consider the grim possibilities? The games all count the same and this would be a good time for the team to win a few series in a row. Gibby is probably not the guy Shapiro and Atkins would have chosen with a blank slate. If they can get their guy now and the team continues on this pace through early June, why not make the hire now instead of in the off-season? The 2017 year on his contract seems like a bit of a golden parachute and mid-season shake-ups have been known to work...

The games all count the same, but in some ways these early games count for more with the 2016 Jays. Having a sub-.500 record early doesn't bode particularly well for the dog days of summer, when it's likely that Stroman and Sanchez are going to have to skip a couple of starts each to keep their workload manageable. What's even worse is that so many of the losses have come against AL East opponents, which makes each one count for a full game lost.

I know, it's early and I'm not panicking just yet, but I really would have loved to have seen them pad their record with a few early wins....and so many of these games have been SO winnable. Passed balls have cost a couple of potential wins. Another few games have come down to a series of about a half dozen pitches - if you spread 6 or 10 bad pitches (mistakes) out over 9 innings you laugh about it afterwards...but they seem to have been occurring in bunches for some reason, which has cost a few runs.

This team has all the necessary talent to go on an extended tear, like 20+ wins out of 30 games. They do that, and they're in wonderful shape. But I'd like to see that soon :)

I doubt they'll make a change right away. I jokingly referred to bringing in Cito again as teams responded very well to him the 2 other times he was brought into underperforming teams. Right now though I'd say it is just a wait and see still. Last year the team was sub 500 in late July remember.

Goins gets the start vs. Smyly tonight.  I doubt that the Blue Jays faced three left-handed starting pitchers in a row last year.  Hmm. 

That is an interesting topic to think about though. How long does Gibbons have if this team underperforms? I'd probably till at least June. If they're under .500 in June I could see Gibby walking the plank. AA isn't here anymore and Shapiro doesn't feel any special loyalty to Gibbons.

Why not Barney tonight against the lefty?

Probably the Jays will be a .500 or so team for at least the next 3-5 years, given their positon on the win curve, payroll, aging core, the state of the farm system, and the loss of AA / some key scouts / the Latin American scouting director, etc. But they certainly could end up making the playoffs this year.

Loss of AA I don't think is a negative as far as their wins go. One year of success out of six doesn't make a stellar record. Of course you can say the same about Shapiro. The rest though I agree, but AA got the team to that state.

And speaking of that, Martin and Tulo off to the K races once again.

Cecil looked better today, with a little more zip on the fastball making him less of a one-trick pony. That is a relief.

Storen on the other hand was fortunate that Longoria chased ball four after Miller's homer.  Floyd could switch places with him any time.

Three JEs tonight, and some ground ball luck to boot.  Maybe that is what it takes for the club to find its groove.

An article on Votto today makes good points on how any player can have a bad month... but I wonder where April 2016 ranks on Tulo's and Martin's list of worst months. Is it possible that they are each having their career worst months at the plate simultaneously?

Excellent question there.

Martin worst OPS by month
Career: June-731
2015: Aug-494
2014: Apr-697
2013: Sept-437
2012: Aug-618
2011: June-515
2010: May-648
2009: Apr-560
2008: Aug-624
2007: Sep-725
2006: May-731

2013 was clearly the worst before with that 437 in Sept. he was with the Pirates who finished 3 back but got the wild card and won the one game playoff then lost 3-2 in the LCS. He was 3/4 in the one game playoff, then a 432 in the LCS.

So yeah, this is his worst month ever, 391 OPS. Ugh.

Given the EE/Bautista situation (and now the Alford and Pompey injury issues), maybe the Jays should try to sign Saunders to an extension, unless they're aiming for a full-on rebuild starting next off-season. Losing Saunders, EE and Bautista could decimate this offense next year.

Saunders is a huge health risk. I love him on a one year contract. Would I sign him for 3, 4 or 5? No.

I think the best case scenario is you make him a QO and he takes it.
Second best case, you grab the pick and sign someone healthy.

How serious are the Alford and Pompey's injuries?
Do you think Saunders will be more healthy than them next year?

Because of Magpie, I looked at what Petit was doing.
Shapiro tried to sign him for the pen but was not willing to pay that much.

Petit 13 innings in 5 games.
Floyd 10.1 innings in 8 games.

Yet again, I don't understand what Gibby is doing there.

Bruce 2016: -0.4 fWAR
Saunders 2016: 0.8 fWAR

That's quite a spread, given that the Jays were going to give up a prospect(s) and pay a significantly higher salary for the privilege of "upgrading" to Bruce.

It's early in their tenure, but it does give one pause about Shapiro/Atkins's acuity when it comes to evaluating potential trades.

"It's early in their tenure, but it does give one pause about Shapiro/Atkins's acuity when it comes to evaluating potential trades."

Yes, unlike the dozens and dozens of GMs who never made a bad trade. And, of course, there's zero chance Bruce outperforms Saunders in, say, the month of May.

"It's early in their tenure, but it does give one pause about Shapiro/Atkins's acuity when it comes to evaluating potential trades."

Because of one month sample from a trade that didn't happen? I'm ambivalent when it comes to Shapiro and Atkins because we haven't seen anything yet. They seem like reasonably smart men with good baseball knowledge but other smart people with baseball knowledge have failed. However, there is an anti-Shapiro/Atkins thread that goes through a lot of posts that is utterly absurd.

We don't really know anything about the Saunders/Bruce deal, do we?

What prompted itl? Was is the discovery that Saunders would need significant off time during the year? I doubt it's the sudden belief that Saunders wouldn't remember how to hit.

"It's early in their tenure, but it does give one pause about Shapiro/Atkins's acuity when it comes to evaluating potential trades."

Because of one month sample from a trade that didn't happen?

Plenty of people seem to think one miserable month from Martin means he's on a downward swing ....

I was hostile towards the Saunders / Bruce deal at the time it was rumoured, the April stats haven't changed that one way or the other.  I also didn't like the Chavez / Hendricks swap at the time (I know, pre Atkins but post Shapiro) which has looked great on the Jays end thus far.  The one deal I did like at the time was Storen / Revere which has been a bust thus far on our end.  And I believe my views on these deals were the general consensus round here ...

So yeah, so far 3 low stakes trades / near trades are all we have to go on, too soon to properly evaluate but certainly nothing about the deals that makes me think positively about the new FO.  But I wouldn't rule out Chavez winning a starting spot, going all Estrada on us and getting a QO either.  

I thought I remembered Petit taking less money to sign elsewhere?

it's not based on one month.

Bruce has been a negative war player going on three years now, and costs over $10m for multiple years.

that our new guy thought he had any value at all, let alone the value of someone with as much value upside as saunders, is really hard to just dismiss or ignore, imo.

and we know exactly what shapiro was thinking as he described it a few weeks ago at pitch talks - he believed that the extra year of control and the greater reliability of performance made bruce a better value than saunders, even though he admitted saunders had more value upside.

But even that statement is scary to me. Bruce is a liability, not an asset.

I don't get the petit-floyd comparison.

Petit has had 2 4+ip emergency uses his last 2 times out - the first when joe ross left with injury after a 2ip start and the second when he came in in the 11th inning after the rest of the pen was burned and was asked to keep pitchig until the game finally ended in the 16th.

I'm not sure how that compares to gibby's usage of floyd, or even why we would want floyd used that way.

Every GM has trades they wish they didn't make, or that they did make.
Gillick - Singer for Guidry (was done but veto'ed by people higher than Gillick who would never ever do that again)
Ash - I'd say 90% of his trades he regretted later (slight exaggeration but not by much)
JPR - Almost had Rios for Cain or Lincecum done before SF's GM turned on his brain.
AA - that Dickey for d'Arnaud (on 15 day DL again) and Syndergaard is looking worse every day

I'm sure if we checked the record of every HOF GM we'd find a few deals that make one shake their head. Gillick's blind spot was the first round of the draft as he had many head scratchers in retrospect.

Jays have 4 SP in the top-30 fwar and the top-30 ra9war.

Top-30 AL, that is.

Why would we not want Floyd to throw more innings instead of warming up more often?

Are you going to say the same thing when we need Floyd to start?

Did Shapiro say he's not making any changes before the team plays 40 games?
That's only 2 weeks away.

you're right but i think it's just opportunity so far. we really haven't needed any long outings from relievers yet this year. even then, Floyd leads the bullpen with 10.1ip, and leads in ip per appearance too.

and there's still the possibility that Floyd might become a needed high leverage guy if storen continues to stink.

Martin out of the lineup today. Gibbons says he can't play back to back games due to his neck injury. Says it's hurting him at the plate but the defense is too important not to use him.

I don't know if I really want Floyd to take over the setup role based on April stats.
I don't see why he couldn't throw 2 high leverage innings at a time.

I'm pretty happy with the Biagini results so far. He's arguably the only low leverage guy.


 

For Tulo (using 20+ games started as a minimum):

2016: Apr-647
2015: Aug-665
2014: June-955
2013: July-695
2012: Apr-799
2011: May-633
2010: Apr & Jun-785
2009: May-710
2008: Apr-464
2007: Apr-731
2006: Sept-640

Not looking pretty for the players at the key defensive positions for the Jays now. Unfortunate timing for that part of the lineup given that one of the benefits of the Jays roster construction was supposed to be a bonus for chaining good hitters in the line-up.

Huh, explain how he is a certain liability or at least more likely to be a liability than Saunders at the time of the trade?

Bruce was either a 0.1 or 0.8 WAR player last year (depending on the usual) and 4-5 WAR three years ago -- there's upside there too. The down-side risk of Saunders is pretty extreme. He could miss significant time to injury again. It may have looked more likely at the time of the aborted trade. The Jays are in the best position to know his health and preferring Bruce who has put up season after season of staying on the field is far from scary.

I didn't like the trade when floated but being averse to players with an injury history is not a bad thing. It has been shown more than a few times that health seems to be a skill.

I don't want to paint with too broad a brush but I am waiting for the day that the reactionary attitudes toward the current front office die down a bit.

whatever frustration people are picking up on will die down when the current FO starts accruing success that outweighs many fans distaste over the way ownership handled itself with AA - a very popular GM - and the first successful Jay's team in many people's lifetimes, with the most impressive run of any team in 20+ years. 

Why is this so hard to understand? 

The potential Saunders deal was panned by nearly everyone - here on the Box as well as general commentators. 

Overall, I preferred AA but I'm totally willing to give Shapiro and Atkins a shot - thus far they have been 'meh' in limited trade scenarios, and potentially very good with contracts - Happ and Estrada have started well, Dickey has struggled but would've been impossible to turn down, Floyd could be a find. 

They have introduced numerous initiatives - health sciences, a reboot of the spring training facilities, hopefully some revisions to how things work at the Dome - that won't pay off for years, but could be wonderful and innovative. 

They have yet to have a draft so we have no idea if they continue AA's run of success - Cleveland is not an inspiring org on this front, but perhaps Atkins and Shapiro know enough to let the current team do its thing.

Meanwhile, popular players are being lowballed in contract offers (regardless of whether this is the RIGHT approach), the last regime's aggressive 'win now' approach is being eschewed and payroll is falling relative to the league. 

Add that into a struggling team (obviously, only a small part of this is the fault of the new FO).

I'd suggest any 'undercurrent of resentment' is targeting Rogers, more than Shapiro (who, unfortunately, seems to exemplify corporate leadership in every move he makes) and as I've said for years on this site, I think this frustration with ownership is legit. 

This may be hard selling but is it time to consider better backup catcher option than Thole when Martin is struggling ? While Sanchez and Jimenez seem not ready for the MLB, is this season still a good chance for the Jays to reach postseason ? If so, are better, Jays and Canadian backup catching available in Kottaras, Quiroz than Thole ?

For the batting order, is batting Saunders behind EE and moving Tulo to the leadoff an improvement than the current order ? Is Tulo a good enough hitter for the bottom -- shall Saunders be relied more on?

Questions in last post was to promote discussion -- not necessarily wanting answers.

2-6 in one run games. I believe that's the sixth game they've lost leading into the 7th inning or later...

Cecil is on pace to lose something in the neighbourhood of 32 games, which would really be something.

Brett Cecil is having a season.

First in the majors to five losses. He really, really sucks right now. He needs to earn his way back into pitching when it matters.

But Storen has been worse...
Floyd to 8th inning duty?

Jays have lost every game this year where the opponent scored more than 3 runs.

Cecil hasn't been that bad ... he's more of a walking example of the vagaries of relief pitching and the meaninglessness of the win-loss stat.  Storen has been way worse - by the eye test as well as statistically.

But hey, at least the Leafs got the first pick.    

But Storen has been worse... Floyd to 8th inning duty?

I think that's the move, especially in a situation like tonight's game tied in the 9th with extras your hope. It was great and easy riding Cecil when he was hot. This isn't great.

Jays have lost every game this year where the opponent scored more than 3 runs.

Wow! That's a pretty incredible stat. Much of that though, has been a result of how poorly the bullpen has performed, like on Monday, when the team did score.

Earlier I wondered when the 'cut bait' date was. There are two obvious strategies. One is to pretend that the roster the previous front office put together is a winning one and hope that customers buy into that. The other is to cut bait, and try to move the Tulowitzki (.618 OPS) and Martin (.391 OPS) contracts when someone might buy into the idea that they have value.

Either way, if there is not a turnaround in the next week, I think that Gibbons might start making plans. .

For the batting order, is batting Saunders behind EE and moving Tulo to the leadoff an improvement than the current order ? Is Tulo a good enough hitter for the bottom -- shall Saunders be relied more on?

I don't generally believe that batting order makes all that much difference, but it may help Edwin get some pitches if he has someone other than Tulowitzki behind him.

"Brett Cecil becomes the first MLB reliever since at least 1913 to lose 5 games in the month of April"

...after being the best reliever in the league for the last half of 2015. Can his injury of last year be impacting his delivery or sticking in the back of his mind? I wouldn't have thought so, but to fall so far so fast is odd.

Cecil and Smoak really hurt themselves by allowing Miller to reach base on his leadoff routine grounder to first. That set the tone for the implosion that followed (the Jays have seemingly had a lot of defensive flubs this year).

Cecil sucked last April too. He'll probably figure it out, much like the other guys. I expect this team will really start rolling come June. In the meantime, they're kind of hard to watch.

Last year the team started rolling after they traded a slew of prospects for Price, Tulo, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe. That's not going to happen this summer (partly because the organization's pool of available prospects has shrunk, and partly because of the philosophy of the new, less swashbuckling, front office). It's more likely that the current crew is going to have to find a way to compete at a high level without a call for reinforcements.

In any event, it seems odd to argue that because a particular team started slow but made the postseason last year, that same (for the most part) team, which is again off to a slow start, is likely going to follow a similar trajectory this year.

My own view is that this club is likely to finish in the 77-87 win range, depending on the health/performance of Travis and Pompey.

They don't have enough top end prospects left to pull of two trades like they did last year. It would be a stretch to pull one off without killing the top end talent that is left. But as for the team, they have all the offensive talent still here they did last year plus Saunders. If you listen to some people here, aging isn't a thing so no reason why they shouldn't be able to put those numbers up again this year.

Starting pitching is about the same as it was pre trades last year, if not a bit deeper. Obv they're not getting another Price. They could however make a small trade for a bullpen piece to help out there. However if Cecil and Storen keep sucking as much as they have been it's going to be hard to recover from having your 2 and 3 RP options tank.

My own view is that this club is likely to finish in the 77-87 win range, depending on the health/performance of Travis and Pompey.

I tend to agree. The Sox are legit and the O's look like they're somewhere between their 96-win and 81-win teams of the last two years. Wins will be harder to come by in the East this season.

There's an old saying in sports: if you're standing still, you're moving backwards. To me, that nicely encapsulates what the FO has done between the end of 2015 and this season.

It's particularly frustrating to see many of the $3M - $6M relievers off to strong starts on other teams. A couple of guys I was hoping for:

Bastardo - 13.94 K/BB, 3 holds, 2.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (Mets - $6M)
Kelley - 12.38 K/BB, 1 hold, 0 ERA, .088 WHIP (Nats - $5M)

Alternatively, you have to wonder how different things would look if they had the budget for another solid pitcher (Kazmir is not doing well, I was completely wrong about that so far - was hoping for him or Zimmerman) and Sanchez ended up in the bullpen, where you KNOW Gibby would have used him in tricky spots based on last year.

It might also be helpful if Gibby pitched the guys who are just playing better in high leverage situations (i.e. Floyd, Chavez) over the guys who are struggling (Cecil, Storen). It's not as if the latter couple have been unlucky, Storen's velocity is down and Cecil is a hot mess on the mound.

Just frustrating all around.

"....It's particularly frustrating to see many of the $3M - $6M relievers off to strong starts on other teams...."

In hindsight, you are right.  The Jays should have invested more in the bullpen.  (It's something that I mentioned in the off-season too.)  But at the time, before the season began, it seemed like a strong bullpen.  Chavez and Floyd have been good acquisitions.  Biagini is fine for a 7th reliever. The absence of a good second LHP has been a problem, but the Jays thought they had Loup available, and they did acquire Morales.  The biggest problems were the meltdowns by Cecil and Storen, which were difficult to predict. 
 
"....you have to wonder how different things would look if they had the budget for another solid pitcher ... and Sanchez ended up in the bullpen...."

Sanchez would have helped the bullpen, but the Jays were totally correct to develop him as a starter.  He has so much more value as a starter than a reliever.  And if they had left him in the bullpen this year, it would have been increasingly difficult to convert him to a starter role later.

Barney is again making a strong case for a bigger share of the playing time at 2B.  And it's been another brilliant start from Stroman.  Let's just hope the Jays don't waste another great game from their starting pitcher, yet again.

Yes Tulo, let's start May right.

And Tulo chooses a good time to break out of an awful slump. 

Yeah, I don't see how Barney doesn't get more time. Gibby looked good tonight. Bautista's 3rd Ks got me worried, but it was fun to see Colome's ERA jump on one pitch.

Tulo is so tantalizing. Has a great game that makes you think he's about to break out. Then goes cold for five days. Then repeat. I suppose that's better than what Martin is going through.

Let's not forget that Barney won  a Gold Glove at 2B 4 years ago.

They couldn't afford to lose this series.

Perhaps I am being over-optimistic about Tulowitzki, but his BB rate (in a limited sample this year) is higher than it's ever been before, and he is still showing power (5 home runs in a month).  And his defence is still excellent.  His batting average is obviously terrible, but the BA will inevitably improve to something closer to normal, which means that -- combined with the good BB rate -- he could become a good OBP guy again.  So, going forward, he could morph into a shortstop with a low BA but a good OBP and good power, plus excellent defence.  For a SS, that still has lots of value, if that's what he becomes.

Just want to mention Edwin putting the ball in play to score the go-ahead run, after Bautista failed miserably.

Jays seem to have really struggled this year in scoring without a hit.

His average will not improve unless he starts hitting line drives again. He's hitting only 7% of balls as LD compared to 20% career. This going with his 50% fly ball rate is basically turning himself into Jose Bautista lite. Which might be okay or not. I don't think he's going to hit for a high average if he maintains this approach. He will be lucky to hit .250 but if it comes with good OBP and 20+ HRs that might work.

Tulo has a career 88.2% contact rate swinging at pitches in the strike zone. Last year was a career worst 85%. He's at 72.5% this year.

The walks are partially a by-product of just not swinging the bat - Swing Rate under 40%.

Efficient Stroman looked awesome today AND got a bunch of Ks. 

If you listen to some people here, aging isn't a thing so no reason why they shouldn't be able to put those numbers up again this year.

Classic straw man.  I don't recall anyone saying this at any point.

What we do disagree on is HOW much of an issue age is for the roster.  Worth noting, elite players age better than non-elite players. 

I assume your are referring to Tulo and Martin, who while in the decline phase are not that old relatively speaking.  One month seems premature to judge conclusively that these guys are officially on the way down, both still offer defensive value to justify their contracts.  given positional scarcity, it's quite possible to imagine that these guys are worth their contracts going forward. 

Of course they may not, but let's talk about aging at the end of the year when we have enough data. 

And if you are talking about Dickey, I don't know what to say.  knuckleballers man. 

almost doesn't feel like a series win, but a win it is.

I thought tulo was due for a big fly after 4 or 5 warning track shots this series. He might be ready to bust out.

meanwhile, EE gots to wake up.

Can't say enough about Stro and Sanchez this series though - that's just pure filthy dominance from to ace calibre talents. Pretty exciting.

It's not just them, it's all the talk in the offseason about resigning Price. It's the constant talk about how much ownership should spend to resign EE and Jose. You can lump Donaldson in as well although it's clear with him they're just going to ride out arbitration and never sign him to a long term deal.

It's the reality that if we went with the many moves people here have demanded the team and Shapiro make the roster would have 100+ million dollars or well more all tied up in players over thirty. It's the conversation and argument that will keep coming up again and again and again until the fates of Jose and EE are resolved. But it is the reality the team and management is facing when they have so much tied into older players and very little coming up from the minors to replace them. If you think the outcry of Happ, Estrada, Chavez and Dickey being brought in to replace Price was bad wait til you see next year when the player they're replacing is Jose.

Ahh yes the classic breakout series performance. 1/11 on a HR, 3Ks and a walk.

Tulo with a 116wrc+ his last 15gms, and that's even with a ~.200babip still over those games.

A 136wrc+ over his last 50pa, with a .250babip.

"The Jays should have invested more in the bullpen."

$15m on storen, chavez, and floyd wasn't enough?

"Ahh yes the classic breakout series performance. 1/11 on a HR, 3Ks and a walk."

warning track shot after warning track shot is a good sign, imo. and some fouled straight back too. not so many ugly hacks. let's see if i'm right.

"The Sox are legit"

nah.

a .340 team babip and the easiest SOS in the league are not gonna last.

Nothing is clear with Donaldson.

They could resign him this winter, so he doesn't have to play a high risk one year deal.
They could extend him after 2017 if they offer enough of a premium.
They could trade him after 2017 and probably get a nice package.
The could let him walk after 2018, but it's not like they are no options.

Certainly, there's no point to extend him until the year is over.

The key parts are probably that we have no idea how Donaldson likes playing in Toronto and that in 2019 he'll be 33. Just look at Pujols for an example of possible decline at that age.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS&type=&gds=2016-04-15&gde=2016-04-30&season=

Not sure where you're getting those numbers. Last 14 games here (not including the 1/4 today) with a 97 WRC. Whatever he did today didn't bring it up 19 points.

"....$15m on storen, chavez, and floyd wasn't enough?...."

It's $13m, rather than $15m, for those three pitchers, and that amount is certainly rather insignificant by the standards of some of the teams in their division.

In fact, Storen ($8.3m) has the only significant contract among the new bullpen acquisitions.  But since the Jays traded Revere for Storen, and since Revere was due $6.25m this season, the net cost to the Jays was only $2m for Storen.  That's actually a fairly small net cost.

As for Chavez:  he was clearly acquired to be a depth starter, not just a reliever.  And his current salary ($4m) was awarded in an arbitration process in which his experience as a starter was one of the key reasons for the salary that the arbitrators awarded.  If he was purely a reliever, his salary would not be nearly as high.

To sum up:  Shapiro and Atkins decided to spend a net amount of $2m on Storen and $1m on Floyd.  They also spent $4m on a 6th starter who is currently in the bullpen.  They also agreed to go to arbitration with Cecil, which led to a $3.8m salary, but I wouldn't call that an "investment" in the bullpen, since they were extremely unlikely to dump Cecil after his excellent 2015 season.  Overall, when you consider what some other teams have spent on their bullpens, it wasn't a lot.

As I said, I liked the look of the bullpen at the beginning of the season.  But in hindsight, the team could have done better.  If they had acquired one more established veteran, rather than the waiver claims and Rule 5 guys that they opted for, they wouldn't have been quite so dependent on Storen and Cecil in the high-leverage roles.  For a cost of perhaps $3m or $4m, they might have avoided a few of the bullpen losses that the team has already suffered this year.

Let's say CF that they did sign another middle reliever, say someone similar to Lowe or Floyd. Why do you think Gibbons would use that pitcher instead of Cecil or Storen when so far this season he's shown no sign of putting anyone out there in front of those two, even Floyd who has pitched far better and has major league success as a starter. Thus I don't think any reliever who they'd have been able to sign for 3-4 million would have displaced Cecil or Storen in Gibby's personal depth chart and thus the record would likely be unchanged. (Since anyone signed for that much would have been bumping guys like Chavez, Floyd or Biagani down. And Cecil and Storen have been responsible for most of the meltdowns this year)

no bullpen additions would have changed cecil and storen sucking. But $14.3m (yes, floyd's gonna cost us $2m) is as much as i ever want to spend on the bullpen in an offseason anyways.

Kasi you're right - that number is actually for the last 16gms, then.

Tulo last 10gms: 41pa, ~.230babip, 137wrc+

all sorts of ways of looking at it. In thirds:

Gms 1-8: 33pa, .125babip, 16wrc+
Gms 9-16: 34pa, .227babip, 108wrc+
Gms 17-24: 32pa, .200babip, 96wrc+ (+gm25: 36pa, 113wrc+)

In halves:

Gms 1-12: 49pa, .111babip, 34wrc+
Gms 13-24: 50pa, .269babip, 113wrc+ (+gm25: 54pa, 123wrc+)

I'm a big fan of the Cash/Hickey team, but there were a couple of things that did not impress me in this weekend series about their bullpen management.  Alex Colome, their ace with Boxberger out, had not pitched since Tuesday.  They should have got him into yesterday's game at one point or another, but instead sent Erasmo Ramirez out for 1.2 innings in a close game. It worked but Colome was obviously rusty today.  Bringing on Cedeno (who had pitched yesterday) in the 9th inning today to face Barney and Saunders was a bad idea.  Goins has been struggling, and there's no reason to make it easy for the other manager.

I thought that the one question about this club was the rotation.  The question has been answered positively so far.  I still think that this is a great club ready to lay waste to the league at any moment.  Perhaps the return of Travis will precipitate it.

For a cost of perhaps $3m or $4m, they might have avoided a few of the bullpen losses that the team has already suffered this year.

There's only one loss attributed to Biagini. Chavez has an ERA below 2.0 and 0 losses. That hasn't prevented Cecil from losing 5 games. Cecil, Storen and Osuna are the late innings relievers and there were no reason to replace one of them with a middle relief pitcher because that's all 4M will get you. Don't forget that they also got Morales but he ended up on the DL almost instantly.

Gibbons will not use the last guy in the bullpen. We've witnessed that year after year, so having a rule-5 pitcher is a great move.

I hope you're right UO in that Tulo improves. I just see a guy who has lost his bat speed and is struggling to find a way to compensate. But if he can be halfway in between what he's done for the Jays to date and what his road numbers used to be I'lol be happy enough.

Tulo in 26 Jay games has hit 172/291/356 with 5 HR and 13 RBI's which over 162 is 31 HR and 81 RBI's which would be more home runs than any SS hit last year (22 was the most according to MLB.com) and barely behind the RBI leader at SS last year (84 by Brandon Crawford). Of course his OPS of 647 would be 14th of the 19 who qualified last year as a reminder that there is more than HR & RBI to baseball.

Still interesting that a guy who is hitting poorly could be the best HR/RBI guy at his position - kind of a Joe Carter type except with great defense.

FYI: he is 19th for OPS at SS this year among qualifiers, 3rd in HR as his replacement in Colorado (Trevor Story) has hit 10 already, and in a big tie for 4th in RBI's at SS with Troy Story the only guy more than 2 ahead of him with 20 in 23 games. Who knew? Story is a 23 year old rookie who in the PCL last year hit 277/324/504 in 61 games. Lifetime in the minors 263/348/469 I doubt anyone saw this year coming with him.

no bullpen additions would have changed cecil and storen sucking. But $14.3m (yes, floyd's gonna cost us $2m) is as much as i ever want to spend on the bullpen in an offseason anyways.

How do you benchmark any number, particularly in a league where there is no salary cap and assets can be traded so easily? Dollars don't need to match, as they do in the NHL or NBA, and the deadline market is always hopping so there will be opportunity to sell if things don't work out. Unfortunately, the Jays will be in a position where they'll have to pay prospect capital to improve again.

FA is strictly about how much of your profit you're willing to carve into (or if you're Illitch or Angelos in a contending year, how much more into the red you're willing to go).

Completely unrelated - I had the good fortune to attend Game 7 of the Raps vs. Pacers tonight. Bautista and Stroman were both there and the Raps won in dramatic fashion, exorcising some painful demons in the process. Just a beautiful thing to watch.

Just a beautiful thing to watch.

More like a nerve-wracking thing to watch. They came within a hair's breadth of blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead. It's nice that they won, but given all the hooplah you'd have thought they just won the championship.

They are going to have to elevate their game in the next round or they will not be making any team history.

Suggesting that Floyd and Chavez were brought in to pitch out of the pen is a huge stretch. I think it was pretty clear that the FO anticipated Sanchez to start the season in the bullpen with Floyd starting and Chavez in a swing man role. When Sanchez came into a camp a completely different pitcher, that's when plans changed, but implying that Floyd and Chavez are $6M spent on the bullpen is untrue. That was $6M in rotation depth that turned into relievers because of circumstance.

As far as the pen, it definitely comes down to Storen and Cecil. I thought they should have signed Joe Blanton in the off-season, but would Blanton have been used any differently than Chavez or Floyd if he were brought in? Or any other reliever for that matter?

The relievers, save for Storen (who has been bad) and Cecil (who has been unlucky and a bit off), have been fine. The issue is that Gibbons uses Cecil and Storen in the 7th and 8th in close games, and those two (Cecil in particular) have hurt the team.

What's interesting is that some lauded Gibbons for naming Osuna the closer, but that has probably hurt the team so far. Osuna has been brought into games in the following situations in his 11 appearances:

1. 4 run lead
2. 2 run lead
3. 4 run deficit
4. 3 run lead
5. 2 run lead
6. 4 run lead
7. 1 run lead (1.1 IP)
8. 1 run deficit
9. 3 run lead
10. 5 run lead
11. 4 run lead

Storen probably could have held most of those leads and he's been awful. Making Osuna the closer and then using him in 3-4 run games consistently is not the best use of him.

Here's a different way to handle relief usage given the particulars of the current Blue Jay situation (Storen and Cecil ineffective; Floyd and Chavez effective but also possible starter replacements).  Put Osuna in the Henke role and have Floyd and Chavez share the late 80s Ward role.  So, if the Jays lead by 1 entering the 7th and a reliever is needed, Floyd comes on for 2 innings (or more if rested and the game is headed for tied going into the ninth).  If it happens again the next day, Chavez comes on for 2 innings.  CFO isn't a bad nickname either. 

Using Floyd and Chavez more often in high leverage spots in general would be ideal, although that would make it harder to convert them to the rotation later if/when they are needed.

Guys, our $20m bullpen is not cheap.

60% of that figure you are citing is owed to two 3rd year arb relievers who have the best track record of anyone currently in the pen (Cecil/Storen), and another $6M is owed to two starters who are only in the pen because an internal option unexpectedly developed in the rotation.

Other than knocking anything with Shapiro/Atkins' fingerprints on it, I'm not sure what your point is regarding the pen. If Cecil and Storen pitched like they have the past 2-3 seasons, we wouldn't even be discussing this. That's the volatility of relievers in a nutshell.

What weird spin.

As if Chavez wasn't slotted in the bullpen from pretty much the very start of camp.

And as if Floyd and Morales were actually being expected to be starters this year.

and what the hell does this have to do with knocking shapiro?

what are you talking about?

Here is an excellent recount of last years game 5 with Texas, from their viewpoint.

Worst average WAR paces on the team so far:

1.Cola 32pa, -10.2war/650pa
(Dominguez 8pa, -9.3war/650pa)
(Leon 2.1ip, -5.6war/65ip)
2.Martin 70pa, -5.1war/650pa
3.Storen 8.0ip, -3.7war/65ip
4.Goins 81pa, -2.8war/650pa
5.Smoak 48pa, -2.0war/650pa
(Venditte 3.2ip, -1.8war/65ip)
6.Dickey 5gs, -1.3war/32gs
7.En'cion 108pa, -1.2war/650pa
8.Cecil 9.1ip, -1.1war/65ip


Just far too much outright sucking so far.

Thanks Gerry - that was an interesting article from Texas POV. Texas is in first in the AL West right now and Andrus' 123 OPS+ is extremely valuable to them. He seems to be going about it the right way - take a big negative and use it to help push yourself to be better. Opposite of what happened to various pitchers who have had meltdowns in the playoffs (Mitch Williams, from 43 saves the year Carter hit that home run to just 6 more the rest of his career, Rick Ankiel who went wild in the playoffs and went from #2 in ROY voting to just 34 more ML innings and shifted to the outfield).

The good thing about the 8 bad WAR's listed by uglyone is they are unlikely to continue. Cola is gone at least until the All-Star break, Dominguez/Leon/Venditte are all unlikely to play major roles here. Martin, Encarnacion, Cecil, Dickey have track records that say this is a blip. Goins will be replaced at 2B by Travis once he is fully ready to go (hopefully by sometime in June).

The big concern has to be setup (I don't trust Storen to get back to pre-Jay form) and 1B (Smoak is not that good a player). 1B can be sorta solved by putting EE at 1B and making DH a rotation of Bautista/EE/whoever while Carrera or someone called up gets more playing time (Dominguez right now, maybe Pompey later on).

At this point I'm expecting any big mid-season trade to be for a power hitter at 1B who can stick around long term and/or a couple of setup men for the pen.

I'm with Mike Green on the current state of the team. With the starting pitching looking the way it does, I think this team is a 20 win month waiting to happen. However, I think the team could be improved with a few changes:

- fire Gibbons - he's not a terrible manager but I think he is a below average manager and has had a long time to prove otherwise (I said this last year so this has nothing to do with one bad April for him)
- switch roles for Goins and Barney - you will find no bigger fan of Goins than me but he is slumpling badly at the plate and mildly in the field - Goins would only play against tough righties and when Tulo gets a day off
- in the pen - Floyd should become the high leverage 7th/8th inning man; bring Girodo back up to have two lefties in the pen and use both of them as LOOGY's (use Cecil in this role to try and fix whatever ails him); move Storen to low leverage roles for a while; use Osuna in the 8th every once in a while
- platoon Tulo and Saunders in their spots in the lineup - Tulo leads off and Saunders bats behind EE against RH starters and Saunders leads off and Tulo bats behind EE when a LH starter starts (somewhat counter intuitive I accept but I think they need to try something to get Tulo and EE going)

Of course, changing nothing might work just as well!

"Floyd comes on for 2 innings (or more if rested and the game is headed for tied going into the ninth). If it happens again the next day, Chavez comes on for 2 innings. "

I was thinking the same thing. Would also take some heat off Storen and Cecil while they hopefully figure something out. And hopefully fast. Righties have an OPS off Cecil at Bautista levels, and lefties are hitting 375. I know he had troubles last year, but yikes. Meanwhile Storen is closing in on 12 months worth of downturn including velocity issues, the guy's only 28 and his inning counts each year have been low. Hopefully just a short term dead arm period.

Can't believe Orioles will play 600 ball all year, and everyone else in the division is having consistency issues, so hopefully things will turn in May.

Shapiro mentioned the 40gm mark as the first point of the season where you start to consider changes, and for once I agree with him. That is also around the point where Gibbons started making changes last year - norris replaced by estrada, osuna made closer, etc.

I agree that spending another $3-4M on another reliever probably wouldn't have changed much. However, the current composition also leaves something to be desired: we only have one lefty, and he's sucking wind right now. But - who's Gibby gonna go to for a tough lefty? Venditte maybe, but he didn't really get much of a chance. If we could get old Loup back, that would be good, but right now:

-Storen was losing it the last few months in Washington, doesn't seem like the off-season helped him find anything. It was worth a shot, especially with Revere being "surplus", but, at this point, he should be moved down the ladder a notch or two.

-Cecil just seems unsure of what to throw or what's working on any given day. I think he needs a few low-leverage innings (have there been any this year??) to get things worked out. Right now, he's just trying to keep going with the one pitch that's working for him, and after a few pitches, the batters adjust. Or he hasn't fully recovered. Even if the leg no longer hurts, he may not be back to 100%. Some injuries can take 2-3 years to get fully right, even if the "expected time you miss" is 3-4 months. For a batter, it may not matter as much as a pitcher - they drive with their legs.

-Loup is an unknown. He wasn't good last year, and may not be good this year. We need to find another Scott Downs failed starter type to convert..

If we'd gone "big" with another reliever - say, trade for Aroldis or something (even though he's just coming back now), I think that WOULD have made a difference. Imagine Aroldis being "a week away" from being able to play - all our worries about left-handed relievers would be temporary only (aside from the off-field drama).

I'll be honest: I'm kinda glad I don't have to cheer for Chapman.

I agree - I was just thinking of a dominant left-handed reliever, and he's the first one that came to mind..

Smoak, Goins, Pillar and Thole in slots 6-9 in the batting order tonight. 

A.J. Griffin is an interesting story.  He had TJ in the late spring of 2014, had right elbow symptoms in 2015 and was ineffective in the minor leagues late in the year and was released by the As.  The Rangers picked him up and he has been aces so far.  I wonder if he's still throwing that curve.

I'll be honest: I'm kinda glad I don't have to cheer for Chapman.

I feel the same way. And he's not going to help the Yanks that much. Andrew Miller hasn't given up a run all year, and their starting pitching has been absolutely awful except for Tanaka. They're 8-15 with a comparatively soft schedule. Things could get very ugly in the Bronx this summer (he wrote, happily).

Here's a different way to handle relief usage... Put Osuna in the Henke role and have Floyd and Chavez share the late 80s Ward role.

I worry that this is just going on recent results. If Floyd and Chavez get bombed in short relief, we'll probably all want to be juggling the bullpen yet again. I just hope the Jays figure out what is wrong with Cecil and Storen and fix it.

Other random thoughts:

• I'm actually not completely pessimistic. The Jays have survived not one but two trips to Tampa Bay Death House without getting killed.
• I still think the hitters are trying too hard. They'll snap out of it. Except for Goins, who seems have reverted to his pre-2015 awfulness. When Travis gets back, he'll probably not only lose the starting job but might even lose the backup job to Barney. Which is a shame, given how well he fields.
• Hands up, those of you who predicted that, by this point in the season, Justin Smoak would have more stolen bases (1) than home runs (0). His batting line is something I've never seen before: who has ever had an OBP of .375 and a slugging percentage of .216?

Hrm. Just checked and I think we can see the issue Venditte had - his manager didn't check his splits ahead of time. he saw just 4 LH hitters who went 1 for 3 with a walk and a K. Meanwhile he also saw 15 RH hitters and twice a switch hitter (pitched LH to them). When you have a guy who last year held LH hitters to a 116/191/256 line over 47 PA one wonders why you don't set him up to face LH hitters more often.

I worry that this is just going on recent results. If Floyd and Chavez get bombed in short relief, we'll probably all want to be juggling the bullpen yet again. I just hope the Jays figure out what is wrong with Cecil and Storen and fix it.

It is an option to just leave Cecil and Storen in their roles.  In Storen's case, it's 30 innings (half a relief season or more) of poor work and a demonstrable loss of velocity combined with a shortage of other weapons.  I'd be hesitant to just have him continue in a high leverage role.  In Cecil's case, it's much more nit-picky.  He still has the velocity on the fastball and the curve sometimes is excellent.  If Gibbons decided to just let Cecil work it out in the 7th inning, I could understand that.  He has been unlucky as well as less than good (euphemistically speaking).   

At this point the best Gibbons could do is give more high leverage innings to Chavez and Floyd as they can't be much worse than Storen/Cecil have been. I'd try to give Biagini a few more innings here and there too, not high leverage but a bit more work.

JJ Hardy is out for four to eight weeks with a broken foot. The division really is ripe for the taking this year, if the Jays and Rogers are inclined to get serious about winning. With Stroman and Sanchez on innings limits that may preclude them from starting games in October (if not before), one potential area of need in July is frontline starting pitching.

Agreed that the division is ripe for the taking.... The O's wont sustain their fast start unless they can get better starting pitching, the Rays have a ton of mediocre regulars, the Yanks are aging fast and the Sox are a mess.

But disagreed that we need starting pitching.  We are seven legit MLB starters deep IMO. 

So if the Jays make the playoffs and need (let's say) four starting pitchers to pitch in several series, who will they be? If Stroman and Sanchez are unavailable to start games because they've surpassed their innings limit (of say, 200 and 160 innings, give or take), the team will have Happ, Estrada, Dickey, Chavez and Hutch available (and maybe Floyd, by some miracle).

In my view, to win a WS, the team would likely need to add at least one elite or near-elite SP to pitch at or near the front of that group.

we're not adding anything, no matter what, imo.