Nice matchup for the Sunday game.  Might be worth watching!

Man would this be a perfect time to sweep.

Suddenly the jays would be off to a hot start, and it all the panic alarms would be screaming in boston.

You mean to say they aren't already panicking after dropping 2 of 3 to the Orioles? :)

their panic fingers are twitching, no doubt.

castillo down, pablo phantom DLed, swihart maybe down too...we could really pour some gas on that fire this weekend.

and even better is that if we don't, I still won't be worried about this year.

FWIW, I heard they had moved Price up to Saturday's start.

Interesting read on the Shapiro FO's innovations with their 'cutting edge sports performance department".

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/04/12/toronto-blue-jays-sports-science?xid=si_mlb

I heard they had moved Price up to Saturday's start.

I believe you're right.

When is it NOT a perfect time to sweep? :)

A: after one has clinched the best record in the league.

Interesting lineup for today's game.  The usual 5 RHHs at the top of the lineup followed by Smoak, Saunders, Goins and Thole.  I guess they're not too worried about Robbie Ross and Tommy Layne (are these two names not right out of a 1950s sock hop or what?)

red sox nation currently melting down due to Sweetheart Swihart being sent down.

Well if you're locked into Pillar as the leadoff, there's really no way to mix up those lefties at the bottom, other than letting Saunders hit in front of Smoak, which wouldn't really have any effect. Gibby wants to keep Pillar in the #1 and Tulowitzki in the #5 for now, so the options are limited.

If one was concerned about breaking up righties and lefties, they'd probably go Goins-Donaldson-Bautista-EE-Saunders-Tulo-Smoak-Thole-Pillar.

don't think he's worried about smoak or saunders vLHP.

Anyone have a guess on how long this "Kevin Pillar, leadoff hitter" experiment will last for?

I am not troubled by the batting order, but it probably would be better from a couple of perspectives if they sent out the lineup at the end of 92-93's post.

It is more of an oddity than anything else.

Smoak has hit better against Porcello than any other pitcher- 3 Homers, 3 walks and 2 strikeouts in 19 PAs.

"....If one was concerned about breaking up righties and lefties, they'd probably go Goins-Donaldson-Bautista-EE-Saunders-Tulo-Smoak-Thole-Pillar...."

Goins at the lead-off spot is a possibility that I mentioned a few weeks ago here.  It's intriguing, especially after his good start this month, which seems like a continuation of his great OBP performance last August and September.  But it still just feels a little too early.  I think Goins needs a low-profile lineup spot to allow him to keep working on his adjustment to being a good hitter.  It wasn't too long ago -- 2014 in fact -- when a lot of people were ridiculing him as "the worst hitter in the league" (which may have been statistically true, even).  He has made remarkable strides since then.  Why jeopardize it by putting him in the lead-off slot now, under the glare of pressure and publicity?  I would wait.  Maybe in a couple of months he'll be a good choice for that slot.  But to me, the lead-off slot should go to a supremely confident hitter who doesn't care about pressure or spotlights.  Not sure if Goins is there yet. He might be soon.

It's still very early in the season, of course, but it's interesting to look at the stats of the Jays hitters so far.  Basically they can be divided into three groups, if we are assessing their performance so far this season.  The first group is Donaldson, Bautista and Saunders, all of whom have been hitting brilliantly.  The second group is bunched in the middle, with their OPS numbers ranging from .525 to .700.  This group includes Tulo, Goins, Pillar, Encarnacion and Smoak.  Most of these guys will improve substantially as the season proceeds, of course.   And the third group consists of Colabello and Martin, both of whom are really struggling.  Overall, only 4 of the 10 regulars (or semi-regulars) are living up to their ceilings or their career numbers. There's lots of potential for big improvement in the hitting.

Ortiz is wearing a hoodie?

Aaughh! I hate watching Dickey and his crap pitches.

this year I don't care if he has a great second half i am so done with this crap. we can't win this way.

Can't say I'm going to miss Dickey after this season. He's been better than some give him credit for over the past three seasons, but he's unwatchable when his knuckler isn't working. The hard part is, you can't really take him out of the rotation since he's proven he can be an effective 200 IP starter, but you have Floyd and Chavez in the pen who are both pretty good starters. It will be interesting if they even discuss a swap there if Dickey takes 2-3 months to right himself again.

It's the same story every year for Dickey. He starts out slow, and is painful to watch for most of the first two months of the season or so. Then, he figures things out and finishes with 200+ innings with an average to above average ERA. I have faith he'll do the same this year, and in the meantime I'll hold my nose when I watch him pitch.

Pretty sure there've been more than 30 knuckleballers in MLB history. (What, Tabler was wrong?) I have no problem thinking of 20, and most of them are from my lifetime. It used to be much more common. In addition, before 1960, it wasn't at all unusual for a knuckleball to simply be part of a pitcher's repertoire - fastball, curve, change, knuckler.

Ok, Venditte is worth it alone for what was basically a double air-quotes gesture to the bullpen.

Thole makes the dickey pain so much worse.

If Chirinos was hit by a pitch, why was there an at bat to finish? The umpire missed it?

It would not surprise me to see DD make a generous three- or four-year offer to EE or Bautista next off-season. Each player would be a good fit for the Red Sox (Green Monster, high payroll that can accommodate a high-end DH, Ortiz retiring, hurting a division rival by poaching another elite player from them).

The umpire missed it?

The umpire said he'd swung at the pitch.

Hey, I had to know...

It would be a good game to give Floyd 2 or 3 innings.

we'll see if his command is legit but otherwise imo there's no reason Biagini can't be a quality reliever.

I don't understand Gibbons somedays. Venditte gets only one out and gives up a hit then is pulled for the rule 5 pick. Game is still close so why not use one of the long guys in the pen? Chavez or Floyd? Floyd has thrown all of 10 pitches in the past 6 days so he should be at 100%.

Vazquez has been a huge upgrade over Swihart. stealing pitches all over the place.

venditte was there only for the bottom of the order. as soon as the lineup turned over he was lifted for a harder thrower.

It's pretty tough for a major leaguer to start a season like Smoak has, 11ABs, 10Ks. Yikes. Offense just can't figure out Sox pitching. With Price going tomorrow, this is series is not starting well. Top of the lineup will get another crack at this, hope they can create a a threat.

Biagini is alright.

Wow is this ump bad. That is twice I've seen him K a Jay on a pitch that was clearly not a strike.

Or he's an old-school, "close (and not so close) calls go to the American team -- or the team sans Jose Bautista" ump.

In any event, he's hurting the Jays' chances in this game.

Well there was a make up called third strike to Pedroia.

The sooner they go to electronic umps for balls/strikes the better imo.

No matter how bad Dickey is you're not going to win many games on two hits.

FYI: MLB.tv is fun. I have the radio feed for sound and Jays video for TV with the strike zone showing all the time. Sound is dead on with the play which I never got when doing over the air radio and cable TV.

Zaun is echoing Rance Mulliniks 2008.

I would have pinch hit for Smoak there. It was pretty much a guarantee that a guy like Kimbrel would strike him out. It would have certainly been outside the box for Gibby to pinch hit Cola, a righty for him there but I think our odds would have been better if he had.

To this day I have no idea why the FO thought it prudent to sign Smoak to a 3.9m contract. To me he's just one step up from a Quad-A player: good enough to beat up on the more mediocre MLB pitchers and good enough to hit mistakes, but not good enough to do anything against above average or elite pitching. Basically, he's an easy out when the leverage is highest and the best pitchers are in to shut down the game. I have more confidence in Colabello, even in righty vs righty situations, and even given Smoak's modestly better defense.

Agreed Eudaimon. Smoak made no sense at $3.9 mil and really should've been a release candidate in the winter. There was potential and still is some with him but I suspect last year was as good as it gets for him and that isn't enough for a guy who can only play 1B.

Smoak is Juan Francisco.

Smoak infuriates me. He has legit power and can draw walks, but can't put anything together. Part of that might be his part-time playing time (could be hard to get a rhythm going) but he's looked awful in the games he has played this season.

When you look at who is leading off for the Pirates and what it cost them to sign him, it definitely makes Smoak's salary look worse (if you don't want to look it up, John Jaso got 2/8 in the off-season).

Biagini looked solid. Still has some work to do but he's not 100% big league ready so it's to be expected. Mid-90's fastball is good to see.

well, nice to see edwin back on track.

that makes 4 hitters going now. need a few more still.

wouldn't mind seeing Barney start v price.

Relievers not named Ivan Nova have the following line against the Jays: 33 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 10 BB, 34 K. This is not fun to watch. I don't think Gibbons using lineups that make it easy for the other team to match relievers is helping, but yikes.

Getting out the gate quickly is not a trademark of the Blue Jays under John Gibbons (especially his second stint).

13-12 in '05
12-11 in '06
13-12 in '07
11-17 in '08
10-17 in '13
12-14 in '14
11-12 in '15

I wonder if we'll soon see Tulo end up back in the lead-off spot hitting in front of Donaldson. For all of his struggles, he has at least shown the ability to take a walk. Can't see how it would hurt, and with Tulo's track record, it's at least justifiable to give him the most at bats.

It's been so painful to watch Pillar swing through or roll over so many pitches outside the strike zone the first 11 games. Ironically, the new analytics-heavy Jays regime is allowing their 7th best hitter to get the most at-bats on the team. I can't imagine they let Gibbons ride Pillar much longer.

And while I'm at it, it's truly a shame that Martinez and Tabler were renewed before Beeston left. Martinez's has really ramped up the draconian drivel this season, and it has become obnoxious, frankly.

"....It's been so painful to watch Pillar swing through or roll over so many pitches outside the strike zone the first 11 games..."

This is actually a myth, and it's unsupported by the data.  Pillar's O-swing rate (measuring his swings on pitches outside the zone) in the first 11 games is 29.2%.  That's actually better than the O-swing rate of Donaldson, Colabello, Goins and Smoak.  And it's only marginally behind the O-swing rate of Tulowitzki, Encarnacion and Martin (whose rates range from 28.2% to 28.8%).  So if you're suffering pain from watching Pillar's swings, you must be suffering equal pain from watching almost everyone in the lineup (except Bautista of course, who is miles ahead of everyone in plate discipline). 

Now it's true that Pillar did have much worse plate discipline in 2015, and his swings last season were sometimes painful to watch.  And it's far too early to know if his improvement in 2016 will improve.  (Although we do know that he was playing with a broken hand for much of last season, so some improvement is indeed quite possible.)   But on the other hand, it's also far too early to know if any of the early trends on this team will continue. 

I find it amusing to see people calling for Tulo to replace Pillar at the lead-off spot.  It could actually be a good move.  But how fickle we are as fans. The biggest single complaint about the Jays by its fan base in August 2015 was the decision to put Tulo at the lead-off spot.  Everyone said it was a stupid move.  Now, sure enough, we want him back at lead-off.  Similarly, many of us are demanding the dumping of Justin Smoak after 16 plate appearances, while ignoring the much larger sample of 328 plate appearances last season in which his OPS was .768 and he hit 18 home runs with good defence.  (And yes, I remember casually complaining about Smoak's strikeouts last season too. But I still think it's too early to write him off.) 

I totally understand our propensity to complain about the Jays after a frustrating game like last night.  I still think the hitting is going to drastically improve, and then the Jays could go on a real tear.  It's already clear that the pitching is much-improved over last season.  The lineup is the same, except for Saunders, who is actually an upgrade over anyone that the Jays had in LF last season.  The continued injury to Travis is perhaps the biggest loss to the lineup this season, but his injury last season didn't prevent the Jays from having the league's best offense last season.  With the emergence of Goins as an improved OBP guy since last August, the lineup has no major sinkholes.  I think it's inevitable that this team is going to improve a lot.

I'm watching the O's a bit more closely since I put my money where my mouth was after a friendly disagreement with a couple of buddies. It's early, but so far they have some of that magic we enjoyed last season.

Last night, they put up a nine-spot in the 7th for a come from behind win against the Rangers. Trumbo continues to rake and Schoop is building on his 788 OPS from last season to augment their 2,3 and 4 hitters.

It's early, but their offense has been dangerous nearly 1 through 9 and admittedly fun to watch.

China, you, Buck Martinez and some other commentators have often mentioned how good Smoak's defense is, but is there solid evidence to support this assertion? Fangraphs gives him a negative defensive rating for every year of his career.

"....you, Buck Martinez and some other commentators...."

Oh my goodness, I've been lumped together with Buck.  You really know how to hurt a guy!

When I said "good defence", I meant it in a rather vague way.  He is brought it for defensive purposes in the late innings of Jays games, so clearly the Jays evaluate him as being relatively good in comparison to Colabello.  That's really all that I meant.  If you have developed an opinion that Smoak's defence is not as good as some people assume, I would happily defer to your judgment.   Do you assess him as "average" or what exactly is your rating of him?

Also, how confident are you in the defensive stats?  I thought some of those metrics were questionable.  I'd welcome any discussion on this that people might have.

No need to be so sensitive - I was just referring to the last two people I heard extolling Smoak's defense. I know others have taken this view as well. And I don't assume that Buck is always wrong in his opinions.

I don't know if Smoak's defense is below-average, average, or above-average. I'm just not clear on where the idea that his defense is good or great came from.

I don't believe it was the case that many fans, particularly at sites like there, were bemoaning Tulo at leadoff.

Not necessarily defending Smoak, but all 1B get a penalty defensively for playing 1B. Only one 1B last year had a positive def rating as per fangraphs, and he was elite.

I seem to remember a lot of people here fine with Tulo leading off.

I don't believe it was the case that many fans, particularly at sites like there, were bemoaning Tulo at leadoff.

In fact, you'd have been hard pressed to find any Toronto media being really critical about those kinds of decisions after the trade. The team's biggest mouthpiece loved the idea:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/why-tulowitzki-is-the-best-leadoff-man-for-blue-jays/

Anyways, Gibbons has admitted to thinking about a switch. He's not blind. Pillar would have to hit .315 - .325 to have an OBP in the mid 300s given his walk rate. He did that in the minors, and that was great, but he's a .264 hitting in over 900 major league PAs.

Media reference to Gibby's wavering:

https://twitter.com/SNJeffBlair/status/720775694754652160

Vulg, you are right about the O's - Baltimore is gonna make the AL east tougher than ever this year - and they are raking WITHOUT Alvarez, Weiters or Jones hitting a lick.  Rule v pickup Joey Rickard is going to make more teams think about drafting speedy OFs in the rule v - last years two biggest success stories were fleet OFs as well, (although calling Delino Deshields an OF is generous to his D). 

Machado looks like an MVP right now, and that bullpen is underrated - but no way that starting rotation holds up.

I've long struggled to make sense of Smoak's defensive metrics - I think he looks slick out there, and i certainly give a lot more credence to the eye test and old school assessments like Buck's when it comes to D.  Buck isn't often right, but I do listen to him when he talks fundamentals and D. 

Did anyone read Stoeten's piece on Stephen Brooks' firing and the Clevelandization of the Toronto FO?  Very balanced and the best thing he's written in some time - sharing the new site with John Lott seems to have tempered his belligerence and pushed him to raise his writing game. 

And if I'm allowed to say this on a Jay's site - let's go Raptors!

 

Anyone have a guess on how long this "Kevin Pillar, leadoff hitter" experiment will last for?

My guess is 3 months or until Travis comes back.

I don't understand Gibbons somedays.

Oh, I think I understand. All his relievers are on a totem pole and he uses the bottom guys in non-saves, early innings situations and doesn't leave them if they give hits or walks.

we'll see if his command is legit but otherwise imo there's no reason Biagini can't be a quality reliever.

Is he not a starter? Next year Dickey/Floyd are gone, Hutch can grab back his spot and you could have Biagini in Buffalo as depth.

And if I'm allowed to say this on a Jay's site - let's go Raptors!

Jer, I'm all in for the Raps playoff run. Jurassic Park is already hopping. The team has been an incredible story this year: successful ASG, skinny-Lowry ascending as a top-10 player, franchise record for wins (and for winning % for ANY Toronto sports team). I'm pumped.

I'll be interested to compare Smoak, Colabello and Danny Valencia as the season progresses.

No matter how bad Dickey is you're not going to win many games on two hits.

Absolutely right Kasi. Dickey gave up 4 in almost 5 and there are a lot of starts in Fenway worse than that. Like Price's last start for example.

The team has three players who provide great offence while the remaining six have been collectively a black hole.

I don't think a shakeup would be a bad idea at all. Put Goins in the leadoff, leave 2,3,4 alone, and draw the other positions out of a hat a la Billy Martin. Couldn't be any worse.

I don't think there's anyway you could have shuffled the order yesterday and changed the outcome.
It's April, early numbers don't mean anything. The only thing that matters is winning enough games in this flukey month not to fall too far behind.

"....I don't believe it was the case that many fans, particularly at sites like there, were bemoaning Tulo at leadoff...."
"....In fact, you'd have been hard pressed to find any Toronto media being really critical...."

There is a massive difference between "Toronto media" and "fans."  That's why I specified "fans."  The media take a much more balanced view than most fans, who routinely over-react, panic, jump on and off bandwagons, demand the dumping of players prematurely, etc.  Some of those characteristics can sometimes be seen in the more superficial of the media (we all know the ones that I'm referring to), but not very often in the more quality media.

But as for the fans, I clearly remember many complaints about Tulo's lead-off role, and people complaining that Gibbons was stubbornly leaving him in a position where he was uncomfortable and floundering.  At the time, I thought the criticism was overblown, and I couldn't see any reason why Tulo would be particularly uncomfortable in the lead-off slot.  But even if it was complete coincidence, the reality is that Tulo had a .192 OBP as the first hitter of the game last season.  And many fans were unhappy with it, and were vocal about it, including on this site.

By comparison, Pillar has an OBP of .364 as the first hitter of the game in the 11 games that he has played this season.  Yes, that's correct, an OBP of .364 when he leads off the game.  His numbers when he leads off an inning are not nearly as good, but anyone can lead off an inning.

Anyway, it's kind of a silly discussion, because it's way too early for any conclusions to be drawn about any of this.

As for the supposed "wavering" by Gibbons:  he said he was thought about Saunders.  I don't think that's particularly significant.  He has to think about many options.  He thought about Saunders as the leadoff hitter during the spring.  He is supposed to be thinking about everything.  He might demote Pillar from the leadoff spot any day now.  I just don't think it's a particularly big deal whether he does it or not.

Tulowitzki, by the way, actually hit worse in the 5th position than he did in the lead-off position last season.  He produced his best numbers when he was 3rd in the lineup, but of course that was mostly in Colorado.

Baltimore is gonna make the AL east tougher than ever this year - and they are raking WITHOUT Alvarez, Weiters or Jones hitting a lick

The Orioles' slash line is 294/357/540. A regression is forthcoming, even when the cited slumpers start hitting.

Vulg, if you are down at Jurassic Park, enjoy - perfect day for it!  Hard team not to pull for, so much character and Ujiri has to be in the running for top Toronto sports exec.

Vince Velasquez is sure making the Astros regret the Giles deal already - once again I have to question trading top talent for a relief ace. 

Velasquez's last start was sick - 16Ks, complete game 3 hitter.

Tulowitzki, by the way, actually hit worse in the 5th position than he did in the lead-off position last season; he produced his best numbers when he was 3rd in the lineup, but of course that was mostly in Colorado. Combined with Pillar's struggling at leadoff, how about part-timing Pillar at leadoff only aginst LHSP, #9 against RHSP,, Goins leads off against RHSP, #9 against LHSP. Saunders is #5 and Tulo #6 provides a RLR order from EE to Tulo; also the #6 hitter could be understood as the link between middle of the order to the lower part of the order. As noted above, Tulo experienced as a leadoff, #3 and middle of the order#5. He as #6 can perform any of the leadoff, #3 and #5 hitter roles except under less PAs to perform.

"...Dickey gave up 4 in almost 5 and there are a lot of starts in Fenway worse than that. Like Price's last start for example....."

It would have been 2 runs in almost 5 innings, except that Thole couldn't find the ball fast enough after a strikeout.  Thole seems to be having a lot more troubles with Dickey this season.  This is usually attributed to Dickey having more unpredictable movement on his knuckleball.  But if Thole can't corral those pitches, the Jays might as well go with a better-hitting back-up catcher.

I don't think there's anyway you could have shuffled the order yesterday and changed the outcome. It's April, early numbers don't mean anything. The only thing that matters is winning enough games in this flukey month not to fall too far behind.

My post about changing the batting order wasn't because I thought an 'optimal' batting order would have produced a different result. Instead, it was that this team seems right now to really be two teams. One, Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion hits very well. The other Tulowitzki through Pillar, right now couldn't hit water from a boat.

All of these games mean something. In fact, all of them mean more not less,than games later in the season against non-divisional rivals. One can view this hitting problem as no problem at all, as just a statistical fluke in playing out a series of computerized outcomes until there are enough outcomes that last season's offence miraculously reappears, or you could view it as a team that needs a jolt (or you could view it as a team that's in a lot of trouble, particularly once Jose and Edwin are gone and they've got some albatross contracts for guys that can't hit, and some other guys who are borderline major leaguers, but that's not an outlook that the team can adopt, at least yet). If the team continues to play with a .500 ceiling, there will possibly be a bigger jolt, like a new manager, but often managers try to shake things up before something like that happens. That was my only reason for suggesting picking a lineup out of hat.

I'm just not clear on where the idea that [Smoak's] defense is good or great came from.

It comes from watching Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion play first base these last few years. After those guys, Smoak looks like the second coming of Keith Hernandez. I think he's solid, adequate.

Colabello/Smoak are now 2 for 32 with 0 XBH, 1 R and 0 RBI.

with 17 K's

I don't think the lineup out of a hat would help.
All these players are trying to get hits. They don't need motivation.
It's possible that some of them need some coaching. They're probably getting it anyway.
In this game success is elusive.

I'd move Saunders ahead of Tulo, just to split the lefties and annoy the opposition.
It's all moot today with Carrera in left field.

I'm just about over Pillar as lead off.

Angel being Angel. He's just as competent behind the plate as he is on the bases.

Yesterday's plate umpire was horrendous. Today's is worse.

Not sure while all the venom is focused on Pillar. Six guys in the lineup with BA of 200 or worse and more on the bench. Lots of dogs to kick so far this year.

Let's hope last year wasn't the anomaly for the likes of Smoak, Pillar, Cola, Martin etc

Laughable home plate umpiring. In the small victories dept., great job by Bautista to stay composed in the 9th after Hernandez called him out on a FB that looked to be clearly outside. The game becomes a bit silly when the batter has a better grasp of the strike zone than the ump does.

I'm wondering if Tulo is the new Reyes -- a once-great, injury-prone shortstop whose performance has fallen off irrevocably in his early 30s. His PAs have been shockingly poor for a player who (when healthy) has historically been an offensive powerhouse. Dave Cameron recently mused that all the injuries may have finally caught up with him, at least in terms of offensive ability.

His career numbers in April: 109 wRC+, 10.7 BB%, 15.9 K%.

April 2016: 53 wRC+, 11.1 BB%, 28.9 K%.

Tulo's stats last year showed some concerning trends as well.

If you want to see some troubling stats when it comes to Tulo's hitting, check out fangraphs' Plate Discipline and Pitchf/x Plate Discipline stats over the last couple of years compared to the rest of his career.

Chuck, those orioles will most likely regress but their playoff odds went way up at the start of the year. Fangraphs had a good article on how teams with a start like that are legit

"....Colabello/Smoak are now 2 for 32 with 0 XBH, 1 R and 0 RBI....."

Last season, the Jays strategy assumed that at least one of those two would be hitting well, even if the other was not. The depth that was created by having 2 players for one lineup slot was a cheap substitute for the high-salaried pedigree of one reliable hitter.  The Jays had the luxury of shifting Cola and Smoak in and out of the lineup, depending on match-ups and platoon splits and defensive needs. It worked last year.  But that entire strategy falls apart if they are both bad.  We don't yet know if that's what happening in 2016, but it could happen.  If it does, the Jays will just have to go out and find a replacement. 

It's too bad that Encarnacion can't play 1B regularly, since it would be much easier to find a DH than a 1B.  But keep an eye on Buffalo anyway, especially in early May.  If someone like Brown or Montero has caught fire by then, they might be able to DH for some of the games in Toronto, as long as Edwin can increase his 1B playing time.  Or if someone like Andy Burns goes on a hitting streak, he could be an option, since he can play 1B.   Otherwise, maybe the Jays can persuade Bautista to play 1B, allowing them to promote Pompey to the majors -- assuming that Pompey remains the best hitter in Buffalo at the end of this month.   The only other alternative is the trade market, but that's normally quite inactive until June or July, so there's little chance of any immediate help from a trade.

Smoak is a streaky hitter.  He's started off the season, as Outkast said, colder than cold.  If you consistently miss when swinging at pitches in the zone, you're in trouble.  That's been Smoak so far.  Colabello is a different story.  He hasn't got the timing (that's true of Tulo as well), is making contact but hitting more balls on the ground and fewer on a line.  He has hit quite a number of balls hard, but the fates have been as unkind this year as they were kind last year. 

I'd let Colabello start for a couple of weeks running and see what happened. 

Yeah I'm not writing off the Orioles as just a hot streak. They will regress as the season goes on (their SP looks very bad) but they have what looks like a very powerful offense and a good bullpen. They'll be competitive, and the 8-2 (possibly 9-2) start is just increasing their odds of sticking around a lot longer. Given what happened in 2012 and 2014, nothing surprises me with the Orioles. They could run away with the division or finish last and neither scenario would shock me.

As far as the Jays, the non-Bautista/Donaldson hitters have been ice cold (save for Edwin against Porcello). They need to snap out of this funk quickly. Bad starts can be overcome but digging a hole early is not good.

Jays were 5-6 before todays game. Hardly panic time. (FYI wrote this before the game forgot to his 'post')
2015: 5-6
1993: 6-5
1992: 9-2 (hot start)
1991: 7-4
1989: 5-6
1985: 7-4

So twice the Jays have won a division title with the exact same record at this point as they have right now. One of the WS wins was with a 6-5 (one loss changed into a win) record at this point. Heck, last year on July 28th they were still sub 500 at 50-51 and we all know how that turned out.

Smoak has 16 PA over 10 games. That's not statistically significant.
He has a BABIP of 1000. He's walked enough to have an OBP of .313 which is a lot better than what Colla's been doing.

Smoak was hitting well in the spring but has cooled off on the bench.
Smoak has a terrible contact rate of 46% while Cola is merely bad at 68%.

I could see the arguments of giving more PA to the hottest of the two, but they are both ice cold.

If Smoak's a 40% K hitter in the abstract, the binomial probability of him punching out 11 or more times in 16 trips is 1.9%. I dunno.

I don't think you have the probability right.

He walked on  3 of those trips. That's affected by the contact rate only if he swung at pitches in those AB.

Smoak swung and missed on 22% of the pitches he saw. Cola on 16%. The average is usually around 9.5%.

If I multiply his swing rate by his contact rate I get 20%. So he hit 20% of the pitches he saw but only 1 of those pitches ended up in play. I would think there's a timing issue there, but the sample is just too small.

All hitters gets into slump and then there's at least one stat that looks bad.
People might be happier is that stat is BABIP, but that might just reflect the hitter not spraying the ball enough.

Overall the stats point out what we already know. The hitters are patient and take a lot of pitches--except Carrera who appears more likely to swing at a ball than at a strike. April, I tell you.

Dave Laurila had a fun quote from Joe Biagini on his Fenway debut:

“I’m not sure,” Biagini deadpanned. “I’m not sure if it actually happened or not. It might be a conspiracy, like The Matrix or something.”

After a pause, Biagini continued.

“I remember thinking to myself in between batters, ‘I can’t believe I’m out here. How did this team let me on their roster? It’s crazy.’ So yeah, it was cool. This place is kind of like the cathedral of baseball.”

He's certainly an easy guy to pull for!

AL average: 3.95 runs per game (per team)

Jays: 3.92 RF, 3.83 RA

Hard to believe the Jays are average offensively with only 3 guys doing anything.

The overachieving Orioles offense (5.45) is behind the Jays' rate of 2015 (5.50).

Make that 4 guys doing something. I unintentionally slighted Saunders.

Pillar drops to eighth today, Saunders leading off.

nice to see the shakeup, though i wouldn't have minded seeing something more drastic (i.e. bump everyone up a spot). good on gibby for not stubbornly sticking with something that was always a temporary move anyways.

but dammit we have to win today. this is starting to piss me off.

"Yesterday's plate umpire was horrendous. Today's is worse."

to be fair, this is all about Christian Vazquez.

to be fair, this is all about Christian Vazquez.

Angel Hernandez's track record of horribleness predates the arrival of Christian Vazquez.

Saunders to the leadoff spot is a solid move.

good point, chuck.

and even with a good pitch framer, the number of crucial bad calls was a bit much, especially since he gave them on both sides of the plate.

wouldn't be surprised if this move benefitted pillar, too.

Saunders as the leadoff hitter is fine (and expected -- there really isn't another solid option against RHP at this point, short of giving effect to uglyone's suggestion).

I would not use him as the leadoff hitter against LHP (Martin, Tulo or perhaps Pillar would likely be better options). However, I expect Gibbons to stick with Saunders against LHP (at least for a week or two to see how he does).

Good move. I said prior to the season that I knew Gibbons would switch things up if Pillar started off poorly. Good to see he's not stubborn.

last 5yrs:

Saunders vRHP: 929pa, 109wrc+
Saunders vLHP: 426pa, 106wrc+

resting him occasionally against very tough lhp like price makes sense, but in general i don't think saunders should be treated in any way like a platoon player.

Devon Travis starts taking batting practice tommorrow.

excellent.

Another big test for Sanchez today. I'll be impressed if he continues his spring surge in this bandbox.

One reason I expect good things from Sanchez is his improved mental game. He seems to have very good composure and confidence on the mound. Just as he made physical gains this off-season, I think he has made strides with his mental game. I imagine that his friendship and training sessions with Stroman have helped him in this regard.

Ugly, I was basing my opinion on Saunders' career wRC+ of 81 against LHP, versus his 98 wRC+ against RHP.

It's certainly possible that he's now a good hitter against both L and R pitchers -- I've seen some good PA by him against lefties this year.

I wonder if Floyd might move to the rotation in a month or two with Dickey making the Wilhelm move to the bullpen.  It would work for me. 

There's some concern in Boston with Holt out of the lineup. Pedroia too.

Dickey making the Wilhelm move to the bullpen

I'd rather see Thole moved to a bullpen somewhere in Oklahoma - his inability to catch or at least block the knuckler has had as much to do with runs being scored as Dickey's knuckler actually getting hit hard.

So many of these losses in winnable situations come down to practically a 2 minute - 4/5 pitch sequence, it seems. Passed ball followed by home run, or yesterday's 2 groundballs induced (neither of which was an easy play, but neither of which resulted in an out being made) followed by - well, you saw it.

This team will rip it up, I have every confidence in that...hope it's sooner rather than later.

yeah greenfrog i know - it's a common belief that saunders is a borderline platoon guy but looking at his numbers that's really based on absolute incompetence against them in his first partial 3yrs in the league when he really wasn't good at anything. it doesn't seem like he's needed much protection against them for a while now though.

As for Sanchez - the one thing I've never doubted about Sanchez is his mental game. The kid has always had uncanny confidence and poise imo, even when he couldn't throw a strike. It's actually one of the reasons i thought scouts might have been overraring him - they tend to like guys with that natural poise out there. It's the only reason I think a guy like Zach stewart was ever even considered a good prospect, for example.

I missed these 2 out rallies.

I don't know about Gibby not being stubborn.
With Saunders leading and Goins hitting 9th, the lefties are still bunched up.

It doesn't matters that Saunders can hit lefties, there still is an advantage in forcing the lefties to face the right handed hitters and in tiring the right handed pitchers in the pen.

It's great to give Saunders extra AB, although I wonder if he could be used to pinch hit if he's going to rest up to a game every series.

Sanchez hasn't popped a change on the lefties yet.  But he hasn't had to.

command has been a little iffy 2 starts in a row now. that's a bit worrying.

but the huge uptick in swinging strikes still seems to be real, which makes up for a lot.

The mental game of baseball is multifaceted (check out Doc's bible, Harvey Dorfman's The Mental ABC's of Pitching - confidence and poise are just two of many mental attributes that are key to pitching success). For Sanchez to pitch the way he's pitched this spring reflects growth in his mental game, in my view. One reason I had hope (not certainty) that Sanchez would become a good starting pitcher was because he was (and is) so young, leaving room for physical and mental growth. That's why I wasn't prepared to write him off as a SP based on his walk rate in the minors.

Would be nice if the offense would get some more runs. This whole get a couple runs early on the back of the stars, than tank the rest of the game and waste another QS from a pitcher has happened a bit too much so far this year.

yeah well seems you were right about Sanchez, greenfrog.

my fear was based mostly on there being too many physical strikes against him - a lack of a 3rd pitch, a lack of command, and a lack of swings and misses. he just needed to improve in too many ways for me to bet on him putting it together....but the kid is proving me badly wrong. hopefully it's for real.


and that's a huge rbi for edwin. thought they were gonna let this meatball reliever off the hook.

Geez Tulo is awful this year. Him and Martin need to start earning their contracts.

on 2nd thought, sanchez' 3bb today might not be bad at all. walking Ortiz twice might actually be considered a smart piece of pitching, given his issues v lefties and seeming lack of a changeup today.

Him and Martin need to start earning their contracts.

Martin was awful all through Spring Training too.  I wonder if he's hiding an injury.

storen rounding into form nicely. velo's back and that slider looks nasty.

Sanchez didn't quite have his "A" command today but he wasn't exactly helped by Barksdale either. The quality of umpiring behind home plate has frighftul this series.

I am not above claiming the umps favor the red sox in fenway particularly, rather than just being bad.

In this league, you have to be able to challenge the hitters because if you rely on the umps to give you the corners, you'll often end up in tears.

Lack of control will eventually hurt Sanchez. There's no way he keeps averaging a run every 7 innings, but it's fun while it lasts.

The rare catchable home run. Sigh.

It's hard to imagine that some suggested it would be a good idea for Sanchez to start at Buffalo. He might have a few bad games this season, like all pitchers, and it would be nice to have less walks, but with the electric stuff he has, it was a no-brainer to put him in the starting rotation where he is right up there with Stroman as the best hurler this year.

Is that the only observation you're going to make after the fact, with 3 starts worth of hindsight?

dalimon, plenty of us thought that Sanchez should have a shot at the rotation before his three great starts.  hindsight has nothing to do with it IMO.

But with hindsight?  Man, he looks awesome. 

I was always a big Sanchez believer and glad he's finally coming through. Like Halladay before he turned the corner, i thought his delivery, stuff and mindset would overcome his early control problems. Keep it coming Aaron.

Of course I also thought JPA would be a great catcher, Tulo had turned the corner, Pillar would pan out at lead off and Dickey would come out flying. So I'm 1 for 5. Like a typical Jay batter.

Wonder what happened to the league penalizing umpires who can't call the strike zone? This team obviously has a very poor idea of it given the strike zone plot at Brooks Baseball. 7 pitches by Sanchez were called balls that were actually strikes at the bottom of the strike zone (to be nice most were on the line). 5 others were called strikes that were clearly balls over the strike zone. Wright had 3 very obvious strikes called balls and 5 balls called strikes (3 that had daylight from the edge). He clearly had a high strike zone which is not a good thing. Call the bloody thing as it is written not has you would like it to be.

Is moving Tulo and Martin to 7th and 8th in the order helping minimize their effort on run production ? So Cola/Smoak bats 6th? Saunders persumably moves to 5th.

Sanchez's BABIP is less than .200 on the season, so he is getting some luck, but the higher than normal K rates for him are a good sign. You can live with some command issues if he's striking guys out and maintaining his high GB rate. It was when he was striking out 5 per 9 while having no command that things looked bad for him. He also have FIP-busting characteristics (sinking FB hard to make good contact on).

Still too early to draw any conclusions, but it's clear he's not the same pitcher today as he was in 2010-15. Whatever changes he made this off-season has made him at least capable of being an MLB starter, and possibly a really good one if he can harness his command long-term.

"Geez Tulo is awful this year. Him and Martin need to start earning their contracts."


Unfortunately, Martin's framing stats are declining as well (might be partly due to teams employing better framers in general). I'm a little worried about those two, not necessarily for this season, but over the course of their contracts. The amount of money they are owed in their 30's is a lot even by today's $ standards. I hope they have at least a couple of more good seasons in them before declining.

The scary thing is that Sanchez still has room for improvement. His secondary stuff could be better, as could his (already much-improved) command.

Also, it remains to be seen how durable he is. Some observers have suggested that with his delivery and the heavier workload of a starting pitcher, he might be more susceptible to injury issues.

So, still some question marks about how good he'll be over the long haul. I feel the range of potential outcomes is quite wide. But he has been impressive so far.

Can't wait to see Travis back in the majors. If he's fully healthy, he's really going to help the team. Looking forward to seeing Pompey, too. I could see those two players really helping the team in the second half, if not before.

I'd rather see Thole moved to a bullpen somewhere in Oklahoma - his inability to catch or at least block the knuckler has had as much to do with runs being scored as Dickey's knuckler actually getting hit hard.

This season showcases a few former Jays catchers as possible backup catchers - Kottaras in Giants AAA; Quiroz in Indians AAA; Diaz in extended spring training ? Maybe Buffalo traded Quintero for Quiroz who experienced as a Giaints backup for a few seasons. In other words, shall Thole be demoted and bring a guy like Quiroz, Diaz or Kottaras ?

Interesting comment by Gibbons about Sanchez, in light of the discussion upthread:

Gibbons noted how calm his starter looked before the game, and was impressed with the way he maintained it. That demeanour has changed from when Sanchez started last year.

"To me, he looks like a totally different guy," said Gibbons. "In command, confident, poised, whatever you want to call it. He’s come a long way and, shoot, he’s just going to get better and better."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sanchez-quickly-emerging-significant-force/

dalimon5, my observation was not in hindsight. I posted before spring training began that Sanchez had worked his ass off in the offseason, training with Stroman and putting on 25 pounds of muscle. Nothing he did in spring training made me think he wouldn't succeed as a starter this season and I strongly supported putting him in the rotation. Barring injury, I think he'll win 12 to 15 games, which I know isn't considered an important stat now, but is just my prediction. What I can say in hindsight is I thought Tulo would be batting much better than he is so far. At least he's providing good defence.

One thing that will regress to the good:

In 55 PA versus opposing relievers with the Jays trailing or tied, the team is slashing .100/.182/.100.

When trailing or tied is when you face the best relievers, so that's not very surprising.
Would be nice if the bottom of the order could hit .250 against the starters first.

For the mental part I suspect the strong playoff run that Sanchez had (9 games, 7 1/3 shutout innings, 2 BB vs 6 K) helped a lot. He got a chance with the pressure on and excelled. I suspect the Jays telling him he had to win a rotation slot also helped push him harder in the offseason as he now knew he could do it but also knew he still had something to prove.

In their first ten games the Jays went 5-5 instead of 9-1. They were that good. Just as long as they don't get buried, the Jays will be fine. It may not take Gibbons until month-end before he's sure how he wants his Bullpen to work, as it seems to be coming together better now. We just have to remember one thing. This is the best Team in Baseball and eventually they'll play like it.

The more I think about it,  the whole hindsight narrative belongs in the lap of the Sanchez doubters, not the supporters ... since, you know, it appears that we were and are correct ;)

And damn, with Thor pitching like a freekin' greek god for NY, I do hope Sanchez is a stud. 

The whole "hindsight" thing with Sanchez is bordering ridiculous. Having faith in something despite no real evidence to support it doesn't invalidate the people who were waiting for the evidence to appear. The Sanchez "doubters" never doubted his upside; they doubted his performance, command, and repertoire, three things that were significantly lacking throughout his entire pro career. Speaking for myself, I wanted him in the minors so he could develop into his upside. Turns out, he might be doing that in the Majors. Great. That doesn't mean the people questioning him were off base, nor does 3 starts indicate he's a superstar.

When one's criteria for thinking of a Jays prospect as a success is only that he succeed in the majors for half a season, and when one proclaims almost every Jays prospect a game-breaker waiting to bloom, it's probably very tempting to scream from the rooftops when you're "right" and the doubters are "wrong".

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but that doesn't mean that the guy who goes around screaming that it's 12:00 all the time should ever expect to be taken seriously - even if it IS actually 12:00.

""hindsight" thing with Sanchez is bordering ridiculous. Having faith in something despite no real evidence to support it"
What I find silly is people that insist that they were better predictors than others who predicted better.
Obviously some saw something with their eyes or number trends and put their predictions out there to be tested - and in this case, proven correct. ... that others did not.

Sanchez has always had the stuff.  The two issues with him were control and durability.  Those issues remain albeit perhaps at a lower level.

Can we acknowledge the role of the unpredictable?  If Sanchez' friend Marcus Stroman had not suffered that freak injury last spring, Stroman would not likely have ended up with the Duke rehab team and the excellent therapist Nikki Huffman.  The surprising progress of Stroman's rehab leads to Sanchez working with her this off-season, putting on 25 lbs of muscle and a different feel to his game. 

Hey guys, my bad for being unclear but that last post was a joke - just a bit of trash talk.  winky emoticon and everything.

Im actually pretty darned surprised by what Sanchez has pulled off thus far.  My pick for sleeper in the rotation is currently pitching in AAA.  Mike Green is right - it's an unpredictable game.

"nor does 3 starts indicate he's a superstar."

to be fair - and this is likely a crucial distinction - it's been at least 7 starts, which is half of his career as a starter.

for me, the improvement over his time as a starter last year was not something to ignore. Neither was his dominance as an RP. For a guy with his arm, doing that in mlb at that age was an eye opener for me, and something that was beginning to outweigh his similarly small sample AAA and AA stats.

stroman's injury turns sanchez into a superstar?

I like that narrative, Mike.

I think you have to go further back than Nikki Huffman. Sanchez was making significant progress as far back as the summer of 2014, when he adjusted his delivery, as the following article notes:

Anthopoulos said Sanchez took the advice of the organization’s coaching staff and recently raised his arm angle. The teaching point has him keeping his elbow above his shoulder line as the ball reaches the high point in his delivery. And though the GM said Sanchez still has innings in which he regresses to a lower slot — an old habit that makes him a little more wild and less proficient at inducing the ground-ball outs he’s known for — the change has made a marked difference.

“I think with Aaron, those guys on our coaching staff may have finally unlocked that little change just to get him consistent,” Anthopoulos said. “It doesn’t hurt him being down (in Buffalo) getting more reps, getting more starts. We don’t have a spot now in the starting rotation. We have talked about maybe bringing him up and putting him in the ’pen. Certainly, he could help.”

And another thing worth keeping in mind:

“These people that do the blogs, a lot of them never played the game. So they really don’t know what’s going on,” Sanchez said. “I just try to stay away from it. It’s only going to make me mad.”

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2014/07/12/lifes_dream_within_reach_for_blue_jays_aaron_sanchez_feschuk.html

Be careful using italics if you don't know how to turn them off.

Sanchez's improvement has come from factors that were not known prior to 2016, which is why it seems kind of pointless to say whether you were "right or wrong" about him. His BB%, K%, SwStr%, and performance against LHB prior to this season were not very good (and he can still improve on SwStr%). He had elite GB rates, a great FB, and secondary pitches that he needed to work on. To suggest that this type of performance was foreseeable prior to spring training when he came into camp with more weight, better command, etc, is twisting hindsight a little too much. No one was arguing that he didn't have the potential to be a good starter, but that he needed to improve on many aspects of his game in order to reach his high ceiling (or even come close to it).

Toolsy, young, raw players have weird development curves. Some times all it takes is for something to click and they can turn into very good players out of the blue. However, identifying upside and predicting success are two different things. The point is, no one here was wrong about Sanchez because no one suggested he was never going to be a good SP. I had my doubts certainly, but the upside was always there. However, when people say they saw this type of performance coming, despite no real evidence to support it, it seems kind of pointless. Even Sanchez's last 4 starts in 2015 before he got hurt were nothing like the start he's on now (better SwStr%, better command, more K's, etc). I mean, I'm a fan of Dalton Pompey, but if he showed up to camp hitting like Kenny Lofton in his prime, I'd be pretty darn surprised.

Regardless, if Sanchez turns into an MLB SP, then I'll gladly admit I was wrong about him as I did have my doubts that he'd ever develop the command necessary to become a good SP. He obviously put in the work and the results are showing it. When I'm high on a Jays prospect and he fails, that's more troubling for me.

Upon further inspection, they were turned off the first time used, but not the second. So "don't know how" is a bad choice of words, for which I apologize.

For what it's worth, I think the italics button is supposed to be a "what you see is what you get" and commenters don't worry about the underlying HTML.  I suspect that there is a technical glitch which occurs when a commenter ends a comment with an italicized portion. 

The take-away: if you are going to end a comment with italics, make sure to cursor beyond the comment and turn off the italics. I am pretty sure that will work. 

"To suggest that this type of performance was foreseeable prior to spring training when he came into camp with more weight, better command, etc, is twisting hindsight a little too much"

he was pretty darn good his last bunch of starts last year. that being a real improvemet was always a possibility.

Sk you were wrong about Sanchez (so far), but who cares. Im sure you're happy you were wrong.

When the Jays got Bautista I was wondering why they were playing him so much because I thought he was a bum.

On another note, I get sad everytime Syndergaard pitches. Its gonna be a rough 15 years.

p.s. colour commentary from anyone able to watch the game today is appreciated.

It's too bad about Syndergaard, but it might not be the worst thing for an organization to have a reputation for sometimes dealing away prospects that blossom into first-rate players. It might have helped the team acquire Donaldson.

The key is to keep up the talent acquisition, something Anthopoulos was adept at. I'm sure this is also a high priority for Shapiro.

Martin's timing is way off.  It might be an idea to start the runner next time with an idea that he just punch the ball to right field.

Like Rutledge just did, spoiling a perfectly good pitch from Happ. 

The Jays wasting a roster spot on Carrera when they knew he was going to play this much is frustrating.

"Sk you were wrong about Sanchez (so far), but who cares."


Trust me, I've been wrong about a lot of players. I really don't care, especially when it benefits the Jays (like this clearly has so far). All I'm saying is that people who doubted Sanchez prior to 2016 were reasonable in doing so. There are still questions about his durability, but performance-wise he has turned the corner very nicely. Hope he keeps it up.

leadoff 4 pitch walks to the lefty #9 hitter are very happian.

happist?

Tulowitzki with a fine 6-3 DP, reaching back to tag Bradley Jr.  (from the left of the bag) as he went by and then throwing on to first. 

battling back from 3-0 on pedey to get an inning ending dp is very neo-happist, though!

Ack.  Tulowitzki was on the right side of the bag...

That's 3 double plays in 4 innings.  Buchholz had 13 all of last year and 16 in 2014. 

The strike zone today is unremarkable.  The odd arguable missed call, but nothing egregious that I have seen.  That is a welcome change.

1st jays K of the day comes in a crucial at bat - was it a real strike or a fenway strike?

It was borderline. It might have been a smidge inside.

both jays and sox twitter says ball. #unsurprised

65 pitches thru 5 for happ. this is rare air for him.

Carrera was in and out of the crouch, so I would give the umpire a pass on the up/down side of the call.  On the in/out, he's called balls further out than that as strikes, including one to Chris Young.

Some kind of day for Bautista for so far.  If four Ks is a Golden Sombrero, what would 4 GIDPs be called?

The record for GIDP in a game is 4, held by Goose Goslin, Victor Martinez and Joe Torre.  Pretty good hitters all of them, but I'd prefer if Jose didn't join them.

If four Ks is a Golden Sombrero, what would 4 GIDPs be called?

Eight men out? 

i could get to like this happ.

Bradley Jr.'s catch was hailed as spectacular, but it wasn't so much.  He broke back and in the wrong direction, and made what should have been an easy play into a spectacular one with a diving catch.

would be a shame to waste this legit great start from Happ.

3 outs to get the tying risp in.

no excuses left.

I feel like the Jays probably don't have the best offence in baseball this year.

to add to your bradley commnt, mike, vazquez now has 10 passed balls in 50-odd games.

Iglesias, vazquez, bradley.....boston kuds seem to be granted gold glove status before earning it.

no dp joey.

don't even think about it.

not sure uehara has ever put on 3 baserunners in one inning by himself (either bb or hbp) in his entire career.

sounds like an epic at bat from tulo after EE got blown away.

even more epic at bat from russ. huge.

45 pitches from uehara and kimbrel to get 2 outs that doesn't happen often.

lots of battling with 2 strikes and not many Ks today. progress.

Excellent work by the Jays (including the struggling Tulo and Martin). Beating up on Uehara and Kimbrel is no small feat.

don't think i'd bring happ back after that long inning.

First bases loaded walk of Kimbrel's career? Cool.

Martin launching that monkey off of his back!

A couple things -

1. kudos to Gibbon for the smoak/barney calls. good managing.
2. Farrell did what we always scream at managers to do - bring in the closer in the high lev incident regardless of the inning - and it backfired spectacularly.

It's nice to see Boston's bullpen having a rough night. Our guys haven't done particularly well either, save for Osuna, so this makes up for it a bit.

On a related note, is something wrong with Koji? He just looked brutal out there. I'm surprised Farrell didn't take him out earlier.

Letting Happ start the 8th inning after a long break and with lefty mashing Chris Young at the plate was a pretty darn questionable move by Gibbons. Starting the inning with Cecil would have made far more sense. Oh well, just get out of it with a win.

thattaboy cecil. much better.

and that's how you play CF, Jackie jr.

So far Happ is making Shapiro and LaCava look pretty smart. He might end up being the bargain of the off-season pitching market.

Pillar has six hits and a walk since being moved down in the order.

Pillar 3-3 with a walk so far. Maybe he'd make a good leadoff hitter? #trolling

and he's led off an inning 3 times today. funny.

"fighting for respect" pillar >>> "expected to be good" pillar

2. Farrell did what we always scream at managers to do - bring in the closer in the high lev incident regardless of the inning - and it backfired spectacularly.

I think it was absolutely the right call. If you're going to go down, go down with your best instead of waiting for some hypothetical that may not happen after the imminent late-inning danger has passed.

I'm just happy our boys re-discovered some of last year's magic at the most opportune time.

The calm before the Storen? Let's hope not.

Storen trying to help the Jays get a 1 run win.

Storen trying to help the Jays get a 1 run win.

Success! (kind of).

did we actually just get a favorable game ending strike call in fenway???

#turningpoint

(more kudos for choosing osuna as the prime closer this year, btw)

Bautista fighting back from down 0-2 to draw a walk in the 8th was very impressive. Edwin's PA that followed, missing 2 fastballs that were pretty much right down the middle, was not.

Lovely win. A very entertaining game of baseball on all 3 sides of the ball.

vulg - no doubt the right call, yet still backfired spectacularly.

vulg - no doubt the right call, yet still backfired spectacularly.

Yep, totally backfired. The Boston papers can be merciless - I'm going to be enjoying some schadenfreude in the near future.

Per Rotoworld: Happ has a 1.86 ERA and 81 K's in 82.1 IP since the Seattle-Pittsburgh trade last summer.

One thing that will regress to the good:

In 55 PA versus opposing relievers with the Jays trailing or tied, the team is slashing .100/.182/.100.

Well done, Mike D.  Nailed it!

Speaking of nailed it....Osuna has a cracked fingernail and was unavailable today, per Gibby.

For entertainment I always recommend http://sonsofsamhorn.net/ after a Jays win against Boston. These guys go nuts after a loss quite often. They have the picture of the strike zone from BrooksBaseball with the last pitch being out of the strike zone for Big Papi's AB but the Jays broadcast had it clearly in the zone. Checking the site I see it is listed as clearly out of the zone. Nice we finally get a call our way at the end.

The umpire crew for this Boston series really needs a sit down from the commish after the horrid strike zone calling they did throughout.

Farrell managed that 8th inning well. He just didn't get the result he was looking for, which obviously is good for the Jays.

I didn't see the game, so not sure how Storen's velocity looked, but from the numbers it looks like he's getting unlucky/BABIP'ed. If his velocity creeps back to normal, I think he'll be fine.

The Sox broadcast had the pitch to Ortiz clearly in the zone as well. 

I thought the third strike was in the zone, but the first one wasn't even close. Little deserves 1/3 of a save for that call.

Since I'm opposed to Farrell love-ins on principle can I just say that he butchered the 8th, and that would be true even if Kimbrel struck out Encarnacion and Tulowitzki on six pitches and the Sox went on to win 4-1. The modest increase in probability of getting out of the 8th with the game still tied does not justify the high-stress, high-workload outing on Kimbrel's arm and the vote of no-confidence in Uehara. It's April doe. Kimbrel would be coming out of the dugout for the 9th with no entrance music...

Storen seems to be pitching blindfolded, but he's still got five months to find his command. No worries. The swing-and-miss breaking balls are still there. Anyway, it's not like the Jays figure to have too many late-inning leads with depressing mediocrities like Happ in their rotation.

bow dare you say that about our man Happ.

nice salvage of the wraparound series, particularly ruining their patriots day and leaving on a high note.....

....now onto baltimore where we'll sweep ourselves into 1st place.

the script practically writes itself!

The starting staff looks pretty good. Dickey just needs to get it going.

I am very optimistic about. The bats will come. I also think the bullpen can be adjusted.

I am very optimistic ..

Frustrating as this team has been in the first few weeks, it's actually remarkable they have a 500 record against tough teams when most of the lineup has hit so poorly. They may no longer have the best lineup in baseball (though that could change quickly), but there certainly is cause for optimism. The Baltimore series will be an interesting barometer, early in the season.

If Dickey's catcher would actually catch his knuckleball and he had a tad more luck on grounders he's actually looking good. Mechanically his stuff is there and looking better than normal for this time of year, it's just little mistakes adding up.

What's this, the Blue Jays won a one run game?

"They may no longer have the best lineup in baseball "

I'm pretty sure they do, tbh.

I'm pretty sure they do, tbh.

I hope so but they have a ways to go to prove it.

Is there anything better than loading up the Mets game in progress on gameday and reading "Ball - 93 MPH Changeup?"

To answer my own question it could have been a Jay's game I was checking, I suppose. That would have been better.

Cannot say that I've been impressed with Storen's pitching so far. Poor control, velocity nothing special. Really, he's looking more like the 2015 2nd half Storen more than the 2015 1st half Storen.

I still think that in an ideal world, Osuna would be best used in the set-up role and mid-innings whenever really high leverage is needed, with Storen knowing he'll come in for clean 9ths. But the Jays were correct in their assessment of who could and could not be trusted to close, so the point is moot unless Storen turns it around.

Breathe in... let it go.

Although Dickey has been solid, even good at times that trade is going to bother me for a long time. Pitchers like Noah don't come around every day. Stroman and Sanchez are good, but we lost our best future starter when that trade went through.

career as SP:

Stro: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 3.7fwar, 4.1ra9war
Noah: 26gs, 6.3ip/gs, 82era-, 78fip-, 3.9fwar, 3.6ra9war

Yeah Stroman is great no doubt but I'll take the guy who throws 100, hasn't had major knee surgery and is 6'6".

And i'll take the guy with every pitch in the book, who's already fought through a major injury in impressive fashion, and who's put up those numbers in the AL East, not the NL East.

And that's a reasonable choice for sure. My main concern on Stroman is how he's been focused lately on turning himself into a ground ball pitcher and emphasizing sinker usage so much that it has dropped his K rate. I think he has the stuff to improve on his 6-7k/9 rate, but I'm not sure if he wants to focus himself that way anymore. But if he continues what he's started this year and is at 5/9 that concerns me going forward. You can strike out batters while managing ground ball rate, just look at Sanchez so far this year.

personally, i like the halladayesque approach with the halladayesque arsenal. Much more efficient, and just as dominant. that kind of natural understanding of game management is a huge plus for me, not a negative. the only reason i'd be concerned about strikeouts is if I thought it was an inability to get them - but stroman has all sort of strikeout stuff, he's making a choice to pitch to contact to go deeper into games.

2014: 20gs, 6.0ip/gs, 96pc/gs, 21.1k%, 53.7gb%, 85era-, 73fip-
15-16: 7gs: 6.9ip/gs, 96pc/gs, 15.9k%, 64.5gb%, 72era-, 88fip-

he's pitching an extra inning per start thanks to that choice.

personally, i like the halladayesque approach with the halladayesque arsenal. Much more efficient, and just as dominant. that kind of natural understanding of game management is a huge plus for me, not a negative. the only reason i'd be concerned about strikeouts is if I thought it was an inability to get them - but stroman has all sort of strikeout stuff, he's making a choice to pitch to contact to go deeper into games.

2014: 20gs, 6.0ip/gs, 96pc/gs, 21.1k%, 53.7gb%, 85era-, 73fip-
15-16: 7gs: 6.9ip/gs, 96pc/gs, 15.9k%, 64.5gb%, 72era-, 88fip-

he's pitching an extra inning per start thanks to that choice.

Yeah, with the benefit of hindsight, we'd all rather have Noah now than Dickey, but I wouldn't trade Stro for Noah. Doing it in the AL East matters and while 6'6 is a nice height, #HDMH.

I love Stroman but the kind of dominance Syndergaard is showing is special. His stuff is about as good as I've ever seen from a starter. He strikes out tons of guys, is extremely difficult to hit, has a few amazing pitches, and has excellent command. Pitchers get injuries all the time so they are hard to project but he has the ability to be a generational talent.

"....Pillar 3-3 with a walk so far. Maybe he'd make a good leadoff hitter? #trolling...."

There's a new notion among some fans that Pillar is hitting better BECAUSE he was demoted to the 8th spot in the lineup. That's pure superstition.  Or, let's be fair, it is 90 per cent superstition and 10 per cent guesswork.   Pillar, since his demotion to 8th spot, has 2 hits and a walk when leading off an inning.  Obviously he could have done the same in the leadoff spot. 

As of today, Pillar's OBP is .322 while that of Saunders is .333.   Not much to choose.  But of course Saunders has a far higher SLG, so why not put him lower in the order to increase his chances of driving runs in?

I make these points not because I feel strongly about it.  Lineup position doesn't matter that much.  I just find it odd that some fans would believe that a manager is making a huge mistake by having Pillar in the leadoff spot.  There's still a fair amount of logic behind it.  I don't really care who's in the leadoff spot, but I object to fans who interpret this issue as a sign of managerial stupidity.

Not sure why comparing Stroman and Syndegaard. Could've had both.

With all due respect, I would trade Stroman for Syndergaard every day of the week & twice on Sunday - Imagine a rotation of Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna etc. - similar to what the Mets have - As I mentioned at the time it transpired, that Dickey trade was a fireable offense IMO.

I would rather have Syndergaard than Stroman, but both are front of the rotation SP's. The fact that the Jays could have had both, plus a developing Sanchez, is tantalizing and depressing at the same time.

"There's a new notion among some fans that Pillar is hitting better BECAUSE he was demoted to the 8th spot in the lineup."

not so new:

uglyone - Sunday, April 17 2016 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#321135) #
wouldn't be surprised if this move benefitted pillar, too.

;)

"I love Stroman but the kind of dominance Syndergaard is showing is special."

as is stroman's.

The way I view Thor is that it was Alex's aggressiveness that got him, traded him and also allowed us to trade for Donaldson.

You don't win every trade, and you have to move on or it'll eat you up as a fan.

There is quite the difference trading for a 29 year old 3B coming off basically back to back 7 win seasons and trading for an older pitcher from the NL on the basis of him winning a Cy Young. I'm glad Beane was very generous to us in Alex's tenure between Donaldson and letting us have EE back. And yeah when we see players around the league mature into solid regulars or stars (in Thor's case) you kind of have to remember how they got there.

Noah will always be the one guy I'm annoyed AA traded. A rare misstep where AA traded the underrated kid instead of the overrated kids (Wallace, TDA, Norris, Hoffman, etc.). He was my favorite prospect at the time and I'll always love the guy. Still think Stroman is better, though. Noah depends all on power pitching, and his fastball as fast as it is has proven to be quite homer prone so far, especially in the warmer months. And he doesn't have a very deep arsenal. Any injury or anything which hurts his velo might take a big toll on him.

Of course, I enjoyed having a guy as our GM who astoundingly managed to collect all of Stroman, Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Osuna within a year or two.

Well I think he's working on the arsenal now. He's developed a slider this year (which he throws at 92+ mph). Before coming up he was basically a Fastball/Curve guy. Now his curve gets the 4th more usage after his Change and Slider. Will make him much more effective going forward. (never really trusted pitchers whose best offspeed pitch was a curve)

Regarding Syndergaard - here's some fun numbers from 2012 for three pitchers who were playing at Lansing that year:

Noah Syndergaard: 2.60 ERA, 103.2 IP, 81 H, 31 BB, 122 SO
Aaron Sanchez: 2.49 ERA, 90.1 IP, 64 H, 51 BB, 97 SO
Justin Nicolino: 2.46 ERA, 124.1 IP, 112 H, 21 BB, 119 SO

Syndergaard and Sanchez look like ace starters, based on early 2016 numbers, and Nicolino appears to be in danger of washing out completely. And I don't think there's any way anyone could have predicted that, based on their 2012 numbers. Nobody Knows Anything is a good motto for prospect development, I think.

I'd much rather have Syndergaard right now than Dickey, but Dickey has pitched nearly 670 mostly serviceable innings at a time when the Jays had a severe pitching shortage. That's worth something.

Average Attendance / Game Cost Rank & Amount (Payroll Rank & Amount in brackets)

1. LAD: 49,028 / #29 $55 (#1 $248)
2. STL: 44,270 / #11 $81 (#9 $149)
3. SFG: 41,598 / #7 $91 (#5 $172)
4. TOR: 39,193 / #4 $109 (#13 $140)
5. NYY: 38,879 / #3 $109 (#2 $228)
6. CHC: 38,348 / #2 $116 (#7 $167)
7. LAA: 38,093 / #30 $48 (#6 $168)
8. KCR: 34,659 / #8 $89 (#14 $138)
9. BOS: 34,478 / #1 $157 (#3 $200)
10.TEX: 33,260 / #21 $66 (#8 $163)


I wonder if we're gonna hear more about "Payroll Parameters" this offseason as our free agents run for greener pastures.

I think it depends on how well the canadian dollar does. It has rebounded back to last years level in the last couple months. Hopefully it can continue to get better.

that game cost number is in US$.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-biagini-playfully-irreverent-rule-5-blue-jay/#comments

biagini is likeable.

For lovers of so called "advanced metrics", here's an analysis of the "best stuff" in baseball which interestingly has Thor and Sanchez showing similar dominance- the former better than 100% of other pitchers, and the latter 97%. Stroman is way down the list.

http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/

I'd love to have Thor too but I don't fault AA for taking a run at a title, and this trade was a key part of his strategy. Most analysts had the Jays as playoff favourites, but the players didn't produce. To me it was worth the risk.

Same issue this year. The team is good enough to win, and if they don't I will fault the players, not the front office.

Yeah, funny how that trade had one of 3 pitchers going to NY in Stroman, Sanchez, or Thor all first round picks. Felt like a crapshoot at the time as you would hope one of the 3 would develop but in a rarity it seems all 3 will be good ML starters.

Think about it - Lansing an A ball club had 19 year olds in Sanchez and Syndergaard who both were 8-5 with ERA's of 2.49 & 2.60. Sanchez was wilder at 5.1 BB/9 vs Thor's 2.7. Both are now looking good in the majors. A ball pitchers have a very high burn out rate so getting 2 from there to make it is great.

That same team also had 19 year old Dalton Pompey and 23 year old Kevin Pillar. Plus Anthony DeSclafani who was 22 in his first pro season at age 22 and was traded to Miami and then later to Cincinnati and had 31 ML starts last year for them (on DL right now).

Quite the team. Quite the group to develop. FYI: those Lansing Lugnuts of 2012 went 82-55 to win their division but were knocked out in round one of the playoffs.

Stroman that year was a geezer relatively at 21 and went from Vancouver to AA and pitched only in relief.

I wonder if we're gonna hear more about "Payroll Parameters" this offseason as our free agents run for greener pastures.

The fact that payroll went DOWN relative to other teams after the season the Jays had (and the money that was made) is shameful, really. So far, only Bautista has called ownership out on it. Maybe the fact that Toronto is lucrative market with a captive national audience that chooses to spend like a mid-market team will finally hit the average fan in the face next year when some big names go.

Plus Anthony DeSclafani who was 22 in his first pro season at age 22 and was traded to Miami and then later to Cincinnati and had 31 ML starts last year for them

If anyone surprised me with their success from this group of prospects, it was DeSclafani.  He's not a star or anything, but he's a controllable back-end starter at this point -  I had him as a total throw-in in that deal, and thought we'd really regret the loss of Nicolino.  Show's what I know.

Good point jerjapan. Nicolino was also on that Lansing team. Age 20 10-4 2.46 ERA 1.5 BB/9 8.6 K/9 looked pretty good at the time but wasn't a disaster when he got his chance last year 97 ERA+ in 74 IP over 12 starts 2.4 BB/9 vs 2.8 K/9 ... wow that is a low K/9 and probably explains why he is in AAA again this year.

Still, what a staff eh? 7 guys had 10+ starts for that team, 5 have reached the majors (Nicolino, DeSclafani, Syndergaard, Sanchez, and David Rollins) Rollins had 20 games in relief for Seattle last year 25 IP 50 ERA+. The other 2 were Jesse Hernandez (2.26 ERA that year, hasn't played pro since 2014) and Marcus Walden (in AA now for the Twins but at 27 probably won't reach for more than a cup of coffee).

FYI: On BB's top 30 we saw in 2012...
Stroman: #10 prospect
Nicolino: #5
Syndergaard: #3
Sanchez: #2
Walden: #27

There is such a huge gap in opposition between AL East and NL East for a pitcher, and I'll take Stroman. I would love to see him pitch against Atlanta, Miami, and Philadelphia instead of TB, NYY and Boston.

Noah vPitchers: 48pa, .186oops
Stro vPitchers: 0pa, ----

Noah vNon-Ptc: 632pa, .663oops
Stro vNon-Ptc: 723pa, .612oops

wee bit of an advantage there.

Noah v3rd PA in game: 184pa, .847oops
Stro v3rd PA in game: 180pa, .586oops

unsurprisingly, hitters figure noah out 3rd time through. Stro not so much.

The comments on Nicolino from the 2012 list included the following," Nicoline is considered the most polished and advanced of the three ( although not having the highest ceiling). Ask any scout about him and the name " Tom Glavine " will be mentioned." Like someone said, you never know which prospects will make it.

Island Boy - exactly. That's why I have no problem with the Dickey trade. Yeah, I'd love a do over as both major prospects became solid players but even if you picked the #1 and #2 prospects in baseball you won't get a 100% success rate.

Lets go back a bit and see...
2010: Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg
2009: Matt Wieters, David Price
2008: Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria
2007: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon
2006: Delmon Young, Justin Upton

WAR 20+: Upton, Gordon (31.9), Longoria (43), Price, Heyward (31)
WAR 10+: Bruce, Wieters, Strasburg
Flop: Young (2.5, now retired but not because he wanted to be), Matsuzaka (9.3 WAR, out of MLB since end of 2014)

So from 10 #1/2 prospects we have 2 flops and 5 big successes with 3 solids. I see 10 WAR as minimum for a 'solid' from a top 10 prospect in MLB. For those who push for the Jays to sign big free agents from Japan don't forget Matsuzaka who was super-hyped and then only once had an ERA+ over 110, twice over 100 - all for the 'low' cost of $100 million between posting fee and salary.